# Ukraine Peace Talks: Russia's Absence Key To Success? Why Can't India Be Peacemaker?| Geeta's World, Ep 56

An episode of [Geeta's World](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1635741757), 8 Aug 2023, 59 min.

Audio: https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/56405272/08_aug_23_gw_ep_56_mix_8_aug_128.mp3

Russia's relentless war in Ukraine shows no signs of abating, extending over 500 days since its invasion. The devastating war, characterized by air, land, and sea attacks, has caused the loss of hundreds of lives and inflicted suffering upon more than 44 million people. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, a staggering 24.7 million border crossings have been recorded since the invasion began in February 2022, with countless individuals seeking refuge in neighboring countries.  Russia’s war on Ukraine has led to spikes in food and energy prices, national currencies have been affected, and made it worse for countries in the global south especially, because they were already reeling from the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic Given the global scale of the conflict, efforts towards peacemaking have been made by various allies, including a recent initiative by Saudi Arabia. A two-day summit held in Jeddah was held over the weekend, where dozens of national security advisers and senior-ranking officials  from various countries met, and this was the second of its kind, following a similar forum in Copenhagen earlier in the summer. The summit's goal was to draft essential principles for ending Russia's war in Ukraine. However, it was quite alarming that Russia was not invited to participate. In this episode, our host Anna Priyadarshini and foreign affairs editor at India Today, TV Today Network Geeta Mohan discuss what went down in the summit, how viable are these peace efforts, what’s Saudi’s vested interests in it, the Global south concern and more vital questions. Listen in! Produced by Anna Priyadarshini Sound Mix by Kapil Dev Singh

## Transcript

[0:00] This is India Today podcasts. Top officials from over forty countries, including China,
[0:08] India, the US, and European countries gathered in Saudi Arabia for a
[0:13] two days summit. The purpose was to draft key principles for ending Russia's war
[0:18] in Ukraine. But what came as a surprise was that Russia wasn't invited.
[0:23] Why if Russia were in the room, do you think they would have been
[0:27] talks at all? Absolutely not, They would have sparred. And this indeed
[0:31] is a chance for Saudi Arabia to flex its diplomatic muscle. But will this
[0:37] deal actually be able to turn Mohammad Ben Salman's image from a pariah to a
[0:42] peacemaker? To Saudi Arabia is not actually losing friends or becoming a pariah or
[0:49] was a pariah. Now with a young man in charge, they want to
[0:54] look like they're looking to the future and this is their time, So why
[0:58] not be the peacemaker? Hello, I'm Anna PREDESSIONI with India to Day TV's
[1:03] Foreign Affairs editor Geita Mohan, where with Geta's astute and incisive crasp of world
[1:10] affairs, we delve into all that is urgent and pressing in world politics and
[1:15] comprehend how these developments in other countries could shape India's global ambitions of being a
[1:22] Vishwa Guru. Let's untravel Geta's world. So Geta and I have gathered here
[1:30] in the studio in Noida to discuss something that we have been discussing over the
[1:34] past I think fifty episodes, like most mostly Russia Ukraine war has been something
[1:41] that has been popping up since we started this podcast. And this week also
[1:48] there was something prominent and very important that we thought we couldn't miss. Although
[1:53] Geita last week when we ended the episode, I remember it like, we'll
[1:57] be discussing Taliban two years of that, Yeah, but we were kind of
[2:00] mistaken with the with the days because it's fifteenth of August, and I don't
[2:05] know why I thought we'd be discussing the Taliban two years of the Taliban,
[2:08] but that certainly will happen next week next week. Yeah, So a little
[2:14] bit of just as to what really happened and why why we are discussing Russia
[2:19] Ukraine. So we all know that Russia's relentless war in Ukraine is showing no
[2:25] signs of awaiting. It's extended over five hundred days now since Russia invaded Ukraine,
[2:32] and throughout this period significant developments, developments haven't folded, and we have
[2:38] diligently you know, covered in our podcast as well. When Yeah, and
[2:44] we in fact dedicated an entire episode to mark one year of its conflict.
[2:49] And I remember geta that we started this podcast right after you return from Ukraine,
[2:55] right, and so that gives an ideas to fifty five episodes they have
[3:00] done, So that's right. Yeah. Also, it's been a tumultuous,
[3:06] you know time for Ukraine and the world is witnessing and being impacted because of
[3:14] the war. Saudi Arebas certainly is becoming a peacebroker in the region and beyond
[3:21] given that now they're looking at Ukraine. So it'd be interesting to see how
[3:23] things develop from here on. And this is a topical subject, so let's
[3:30] just dive in. So just to give you some numbers, you know,
[3:36] this entire war, this devastating war, has caused the loss of hundreds of
[3:40] lives and inflicted suffering upon more than forty four million people, and according to
[3:46] the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, are staggering twenty four point seven million
[3:53] border crossings have been recorded since the invasion began in February last year, So
[4:00] that gives you an ideas to you know, the extent of the devastation it
[4:04] has caused, and specifically to the global South. You know, there has
[4:10] been spikes in food and energy prices, national currencies have been affected, and
[4:15] it has made it worse for the Global South in the sense that it was
[4:19] there were countries like already reeling, you know, from the consequences of the
[4:25] COVID nineteen pandemic. Now given this global scale of the conflict, like Geita
[4:30] you mentioned, there has been peace making happening from various countries. Actually Turkey
[4:35] has done it, and there was some summit in Copenhagen as well in June,
[4:42] if I correctly remember. So now this particular time, a recent initiative
[4:46] has been furthered by Saudi Arabia. So over the weekend a two days summit
[4:53] was held in Jedda, and where you know, dozens of national security advisors
[4:59] and senior banking officials from various countries they met, and this summit's goal was
[5:04] to draft essential principles for ending Russia's war in Ukraine. So Geita and I
[5:11] will be discussing the summit, what went down, what were these peace efforts,
[5:15] what's Southeast WestEd interest in it and the global South concern. So first
[5:19] and foremost, geta you know, regarding this recent event where more than forty
[5:25] countries including China, India, the US and all European countries they gathered,
[5:30] but Russia wasn't invited. So it is very crucial to consider that, you
[5:36] know, like for any peace negotiation, you know, to be effective,
[5:41] both the parties have to be present. That's for obvious and in this case
[5:45] Russia and Ukraine they had to be present because that's the entire deal. Now
[5:50] without their participation, I genuinely feel that it's kind of futile to you know,
[5:56] achieve any meaningful peace accord. So do you believe that not having Russia
[6:01] at the table at the talks from the very start it has kind of,
[6:05] you know, already set a negative tone for the peace efforts to begin with.
[6:13] What were the talks all about? The talks in South Arabia one brings
[6:18] into prominence the role of this Arab nation in not just the region, but
[6:27] across the globe. The growing prominence of South Arabia. But were these talks,
[6:32] negotiations or deliberations. If they were negotiations for peace, then Russian Ukraine
[6:40] would have to be would have to have been in the room. These were
[6:44] deliberations, They were talks for peace. There were talks to see and explore
[6:51] how the two countries can go into the direction of peace. It was not
[6:58] negotiation. So the most moment our listeners and you realize that these were not
[7:05] negotiations. There is more clarity in then what was really happening with the war.
[7:12] There has been a great impact on global economy, whether it is the
[7:16] Arab world, whether it's the African world or Europe. There has been huge
[7:25] shortage of food. Food security is one of the most prominent conversations that we're
[7:30] having in the recent past. We've had in the recent past with various countries,
[7:36] and that's why India also becomes very important. India participated and so did
[7:41] China. China's participation again is a win for Ukraine and for Saudi Arabia,
[7:49] given that China that has been supporting Russia or long wars in the room.
[7:54] But China went assuring Russia that it would be impartial, that it is not
[8:00] going to take sides, and it is going to put forth the views of
[8:03] the other side as well, because they're not in the room. Russia had
[8:07] reservations, but also said that they're monitoring, keeping a close eye on what's
[8:13] happening. So these were talks on how to move forward. They concluded on
[8:16] a positive note where everybody said, well, the conversations were good, we're
[8:22] looking at how to bring about Was there a solution? Absolutely not, because
[8:26] the stance that Ukraine has and the position that Russia has taken are so varied,
[8:33] so that opposite spectrums. Yeah, and that would have been the mindset.
[8:39] Yeah, that there could have been. There couldn't have been a solution
[8:43] during this meeting. But even if when you were saying that these were not
[8:46] negotiations and these were deliberations, but given that also, I mean, Russia
[8:50] wouldn't have been left out like it. Let me flip that question. Yeah,
[8:56] if Russia were in the room, you think there would have been talks
[9:01] at all? Absolutely not. They would have sparred. It was just it
[9:05] would have been a shouting match between the Ukrainians who think they have been wronged
[9:13] and rightly so, and the Russians who would have put forth their point of
[9:16] view as to why they have done what they've done and spoken of the Soviet
[9:22] era, so there would have been no solution. There is a reason why.
[9:26] It's not like the Saudists do not have contacts with Moscow. But there's
[9:31] a reason why Russia was not invited for this meeting, which was attended by
[9:35] more than or around forty countries. It's because there would have been no conversation.
[9:41] They know what the sides were. The talks were on Ukraine because the
[9:46] country that has been invaded is Ukraine, but does not mean that they're not
[9:50] going to go back to all those countries that have a sphere of influence or
[9:56] have contacts and engage Moscow. They would have gone back and said, well,
[10:01] this is what we think can be a plan, but it is kind
[10:05] of giving Ukraine a chance to gather more international support. Yes, right,
[10:11] there were naysayers in the room. There were all those which includes India,
[10:18] who are not yes, who are not who are not taking sides, and
[10:22] they continue to maintain that. China came out openly expressing that they will be
[10:31] impartial, that they will not that they will ensure that they ensure yes,
[10:37] and they'll ensure that there are no biases that come through, you know,
[10:39] from from there. The other countries didn't, but they of course did not
[10:43] go ahead and absolutely support the Ukrainian cause as well. The demands are clear.
[10:52] Ukraine is talking about a ten point proposal, as we've been reading.
[10:56] The ten point proposal includesment critical feature, which is withdrawal of troops. Russia
[11:01] has said that there is going to be no such thing because what they're asking
[11:05] for is withdrawal of troops to the post Soviet era, which means not just
[11:11] the newly captured territories but also the Donbas Region and don Bas Region in Crimea
[11:18] have been don Bars independent in Crimea with Russia. Now don Bars also a
[11:22] part of Russia, have been since twenty fourteen. Yeah, so that fact
[11:28] for Russia is a non negotiable exactly. So, when you have two sides
[11:37] with non negotiable terms, there is no talking. So Russia has made it
[11:41] very clear that there can be no talks in such a scenario. Would it
[11:48] have been wise for South Arabia to have invited Russia instead of what they did?
[11:52] They did what they could do best. Again, let me flip this
[11:58] question of further furthermore and say what if Saudi Arabia would have helped Pea stocks
[12:03] Anna and said, well, you need peace. Yeah, but we should
[12:07] be talking to the aggressive, not the aggrieved. Let's get Russia into the
[12:11] room and not Ukraine. Oh, because the solution is there, right,
[12:16] Yeah, so boil kind of lies. How many? How many countries would
[12:22] have attended that peace stock even if you would Russian political strategic move Yes,
[12:28] even if you would have called Russia and Ukraine, maybe some countries would have
[12:33] cootted, including Ukrainian delegation. Then it again comes to this impending question that
[12:39] about the redundancy of such confidence. The idea should be larger than what you're
[12:48] looking at, which is how the world views it. A European war which
[12:52] needs solution and it can only come from the west. Here you have the
[13:00] Ubal South. Saudi Arabia Turkey has been very important in some of the key
[13:07] negotiations when it came to the prisoner swaps on and so forth. Right,
[13:11] Saudi Arabian Turkey are becoming the new peace brokers. So this is a moment
[13:18] for Saudi Arabia to show that they can engage all sides and they might be
[13:24] able to come to a place where maybe the escalation will stop, because in
[13:35] the recent past, if you see, there have been massive bombings, not
[13:41] just in the Ukrainian side, but well within Russia. Until now the war
[13:46] was confined to Ukraine, so Russia was also bombing Ukraine. Ukraine was also
[13:52] fighting Russia within Ukraine. Ukraine has pushed the boundaries and has gone to Russia,
[14:00] which Russia has not taken to very kindly. So there are so many
[14:03] non negotiables on the ground right now, with Russia almost saying that there can
[14:09] be no talks, Ukraine saying that there can only be talks if the ten
[14:15] point proposal is accepted, and therefore Moscow says no talks, you see,
[14:18] exactly, So in such a scenario, getting people to come and having a
[14:24] conversation itself was very important, and getting India and China there in the room
[14:31] that also vary, of course, including Brazil, including Brazil because Brazil.
[14:35] All those came out, yes, came out in support of Russia, which
[14:41] miffed the Western world, but they did so. Getting all of them together
[14:46] and saying well, and then being able to listen to Ukraine, the Ukrainian
[14:52] side saying this is what is happening. Listening to the Chinese side saying that,
[14:56] but well, this is what the view on the other side is.
[15:00] Listening to all those who say that, you know, this is what can
[15:03] be done on food security and energy security. Because if the countries are coming,
[15:07] they're not coming only because they're thinking from their heart for Russia and Ukraine.
[15:11] They're also coming because they're thinking for their own people who will be impacted
[15:16] because of the food security crisis and the energy security crisis. Of course they're
[15:20] in the room for their own interest national interests as well. It serves everybody
[15:26] if somebody can provide a place for people to come and maybe brainstorm into some
[15:33] solution, finding some solution. Yeah, very interesting points that you raised,
[15:37] Keitha. But although you mentioned that, you know, China has a short
[15:41] Russia that it will be an impartial view that or stands that it will take
[15:48] and the entire summit. But still I was, you know, thinking about
[15:52] it. You know, we had mentioned this, a lot of peace making
[15:58] was happening, was being broken when China also broke it peace between Saudi Arabia
[16:03] and Iran, and it kind of signaled its growing influence in the Gulf and
[16:07] sending a message to the US to be cautious of China's prominence in the region.
[16:12] Now China is here, it's supporting a third round of talks for finding
[16:18] peace finding a peace framework in Ukraine. But what is interesting here is that
[16:26] China was invited to the Denmark talks in June, but it did not choose
[16:33] to attend here. It chose to attend about the same Russia Ukraine peace you
[16:41] know discussion. And we also remember we talked about G twenty thing and about
[16:48] why you know, Russia and China were, you know, opposing the inclusion
[16:52] of the Bali paragraphs in the G twenty joint Communicate, and Russia kind of
[16:57] argued that these paragraphs they do not address the military support provided to Ukraine by
[17:03] the US and Europe along with the imposed sanctions on Russia. And on the
[17:07] other hand, China was saying that G twenty should not be discussing all these
[17:11] geopolitical issues, sending it was kind of a loyal message, a message to
[17:18] Russia about its loyalty. But here, you know, when China is being
[17:23] invited in, China is going without Russia's presence here, I'm kind of confused
[17:29] as to is like China's loyalty to Saudi Arabia, it is you know,
[17:34] remaining untouched here. But China is seeming to prioritize its relations with Saudi Arabia
[17:41] as a means to assert its dominance in the Gulf, which is a fact.
[17:45] This could explain why China missed the Copenhagen, you know, peace summit,
[17:49] but actively participated here because Saudi was arranging it. So I was kind
[17:56] of fundering that siding with Ukraine through this, Fittins, if that's the case,
[18:02] means that China is now willing to jeopardize its kind of relations with Russia
[18:07] because you know, the potential vulnerability of potents hold and prominence due to the
[18:15] attempted mutiny in Russia. With all this you know, pregosion episode and his
[18:21] Wagner mercenaries, they do you think they kind of it kind of have you
[18:27] know, impacted China's priorities. Like like China's actions they kind of indicate a
[18:36] shift in its geopolitical strategy, emphasizing its interests more in the Gulf now so
[18:41] much so that it's willing to sabotage its relations it's other relations like for example,
[18:47] Russia. So I will respond to this by beginning with a statement by
[18:53] Mongi, the current foreign minister, since Chin Gang is missing. The fore
[19:00] minister statement ahead of the visit said on the Ukraine crisis, China will uphold
[19:07] an independent and partial position, sound an objective and rational voice, actively promote
[19:14] peacetocks, and strive to seek a political solution on an international multilateral occasion.
[19:21] There are two things over here for China. Don't look at it from the
[19:26] prism of what's happening or how will it impact relations with Russia. It will
[19:30] not. They went into this meeting informing Lavrov that we will remain impartial.
[19:40] They not only informed him personally, they put out an official statement so that
[19:44] the world can see that China is going into that room informing Russia that we
[19:51] are going to be impartial, kind of representative of Russia's demeanor. No representing
[19:57] Beijing as a friend of Moscow, as a friend of Moscow. Okay,
[20:00] but then that is quite established. Absolutely so one they are going in because
[20:08] it's an important meeting. They don't want to be seen out of the room
[20:12] of China does not miss out on opportunities where they have and they can put
[20:18] forth their position on any international issue. Secondly, if China is the second
[20:27] largest economy today, rising superpower, face of the global South, yeah,
[20:37] I'm giving you all these so one can understand. Then why shouldn't China take
[20:41] the lead on or be a part of, you know, an important meeting
[20:49] where they can put their name and face as an important representative in brokering peace,
[20:57] wanting to become a peacemaker where the West is trying to paint them as
[21:03] an aggressor, an oppressor country, an authoritarian country with no no morals on
[21:14] peace, on respect for others, on and so forth. In such a
[21:18] scenario, when you're such a big country, why would you not want to
[21:22] take your presence felt. China is making its presence felt in every region of
[21:29] the world, you name it. You see the African crisis today. Yeah,
[21:33] the most important players in terms of aid in cordering conflict, in terms
[21:41] of engagement with warring parties and factions is China. You look at South Asia,
[21:47] our region, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka,
[21:53] the Maldives. Yeah, China, it is a very important spencerville. You
[22:00] look at Southeast Asia, Yeah, you have all those island nations fighting China
[22:08] for their territorial rights on their islands. Yet when it comes to engagement and
[22:14] economic cooperation, India is not part of our set. That's the Regional Comprehensive
[22:19] Economic Partnership Agreement. China is the lead. You look at Latin America,
[22:26] whether it is all those sanctioned countries by the United States of America, Venezuela,
[22:33] Cuba, now Brazil with Luis in Asiolula de Silva in the room in
[22:41] Jedda siding with Russia. The jew politics Anna is shifting, shifting drastically.
[22:51] So those who have studied international politics but have not followed through or followed up
[22:56] in these years will suddenly be hit by what happened. These were the powers
[23:06] and they were supposed to listen. Is no longer the scene right now.
[23:11] What are you're looking at? Is China asserting itself, Saudi Arabia asserting itself,
[23:18] all countries looking at their own interests when they're in the room, whether
[23:22] it is because for food, for energy, for stability, for peace,
[23:26] for gas, you know, to ensure that there is no war. Ukraine
[23:33] is not going to be part of the NATO anytime soon. What's the other
[23:36] military option keep sustaining them with weapons. Even in the United States of America
[23:42] or other countries, especially Europe, there are factions that are waking up and
[23:48] rising to the powers that be in saying how much and for how long is
[23:52] more sustainable? In this day and age it is not so everybody's making a
[23:57] desperate effort. Russia for now is not in the most comfortable position, but
[24:03] for how long can they also sustain this war? Clearly, and Russia does
[24:08] not want to sew Russian China friends, but they don't want to be dependent
[24:12] on China because the moment that happens, you will see the game change in
[24:19] terms of power between Russian and China. As so Russia does not want to
[24:23] lose that grip of being rather than an unequal yea, you know, partnership.
[24:30] Yeah, So in such a scenario, not for one thing that China
[24:36] is losing a friend. China's trying to gain grounds. And that's what's happening
[24:42] over here. If you look at the reports, if you and which you
[24:45] have, I'm sure with all the research that you do, if you look
[24:49] at all the reports, Anna, most of them say that saw they led
[24:55] peace talks which included countries life, China, India, India, Yes,
[25:03] Otherwise they would have just said forty forty countries in Jedda, including India,
[25:08] China or China, especially China. You know, most of the reports are
[25:11] about China because India is neutral, but it's mostly about China because the West
[25:17] is China centric. It is a threat, but it's a very important country,
[25:22] a country that has already told Russia that ham up key, you know,
[25:26] we will take care of your interests. Then is coming into the room.
[25:30] And yet when they concluded the meeting, they concluded on a positive note
[25:34] because even China wants to be a peace broker, they will not take sizes
[25:38] to the extent that they're not going to be peace brokers. They also,
[25:41] like India, abstained at the UNSC They didn't vote in favor or Russia.
[25:45] Yes, nobody wants to be on the wrong side of history to the extent
[25:49] that it is irretractable. You see. Yeah, so this was an important
[25:56] meeting. It concluded on a positive note. Are they going to be deliverables,
[26:03] I don't know. I don't think so in terms of on the ground
[26:06] till positions on either side changes at least a little. There has to be
[26:11] a given take their grief. Party has more to be given rather than taken
[26:18] from the Russian side. Will have to think how they can maybe seed some
[26:25] space. The Ukrainians cannot be so stubborn as to saying it has to be
[26:30] post Soviet because that is not going to happen. They can forget about dawn
[26:34] Bars and Crimea. The Sevestopol Naval Base is the only warm water naval base
[26:44] that Russia has, and it used to be shared by Ukraine and Russia.
[26:48] To day it's all under Russian control. But that's a very important naval base
[26:52] for a country that's frozen during winters. Where will the ship's dock, where
[26:59] will they submer marines be? It serves the pole which is in Crimea.
[27:03] So it's a no go area. So the so the position of Russia Ukraine
[27:11] sorry, will have to be post twenty four fourteen. Yeah, it can't
[27:17] be post Soviet era because post Soviet era is not not a place that Russia
[27:23] will even entertain. And for Ukraine, I think Russians will have to move
[27:33] back from certain areas taken after after the invasion. Yeah, and you know,
[27:45] of course there is one area which is always going to repain a hot
[27:48] topic, which is the Zapparigia nuclear power plant. There. Russia might not
[27:55] withdraw easily. Ukraine will continue insisting. But that's a place where Russia will
[28:02] have to decide whether if they want to or not. Russia, the present
[28:07] portent will lose a lot of political capital should he withdraw from areas where Russian
[28:14] men laid their lives to capture. So it's a political question too. Yeah,
[28:21] too many layers actually, actually, I mean so many things to actually,
[28:23] you know, ponder upon. But time will tell how it is going
[28:30] to pan out. But interestingly here, you know, I wanted to focus
[28:34] a bit on Saudi here and you mentioned you know, a bit about it
[28:41] in the beginning. But you know, like Saudi Arabia, it has kind
[28:47] of strategically positioned itself now as a potential mediator by engaging both the sides of
[28:52] the war and showcasing its global responsibility. But you know, like at the
[29:02] same time, you know, by not inviting Russia, by giving the platform
[29:07] to Ukraine, they're you know, like Southeast relations relations with Russia. You
[29:15] think it's at stake here, Not really, no, yeah, not really,
[29:22] yeah, because they will still engage and they know why it has happened,
[29:25] but yes, Russians have expressed this pleasure. They are upset about this
[29:30] meeting. So the Russian deputy Foreign Minister, Sergey Yapko again you know,
[29:37] in a public statement to one of their agencies, said that it is a
[29:41] reflection of the West's attempt to continue futile, doomed efforts to mobilize the international
[29:47] community and more precisely the global South, even if not entirely in support of
[29:52] the so called Zelenski formula, which is doomed and untenable from the outset,
[29:57] which means they've already said that they can peace settlement if they see to the
[30:02] ten point proposal. Again, a very important point that I missed out,
[30:07] you know, to make anna was the global South. The fact that this
[30:11] was not a meeting of countries only from the West. Yeah, that this
[30:15] was a projection of the global South. Also an outreach by Saudi Arabia to
[30:23] the global South. The leaders are important, these countries are important, that
[30:29] their stakeholders in global peace is very important messaging and it's not coming from a
[30:33] Western nation. It's coming from none other than a leading prominent major world economy
[30:40] from the global South. Saudi Arabia. So a lot of messaging over here
[30:45] from Saudi Arabia. There have been criticism and allegations in the past when it
[30:52] comes to the Crown Prince. But if you see on the foreign policy front
[30:56] and on the domestic front, a lot has changed in the recent past.
[31:00] If you see what the moves and foreign policy have been, they are trying
[31:07] to become a major power and stakeholder and global and regional peace. Yeah,
[31:14] I mean, this is what I was about to ask Kita that now this
[31:17] move has kind of given Saudia, I mean, it will bring could bring
[31:22] Saudi Arabia closer to the US, because I mean there were reports of strained
[31:26] relations with the US, you know, given the ongoing Yemen conflict and the
[31:32] Hashugi incident in twenty eighteen that happened. Now Saudi is in good books with
[31:38] China as well, with the peace brokered and now with these developments. So
[31:45] I wanted to ask that is it is this, I mean, does this
[31:48] give a chance for Saudi Arabia to you know, flex its diplomatic muscle if
[31:56] Saudi is actually able to or even if not able to, you know,
[32:00] strike a peace deal between the two powers how do you think the dynamics will
[32:06] actually change like they are in good books with the US with the China.
[32:10] But do you think this will be able to turn MBS's a moment Ben Salmans
[32:16] and Southeast image from a pariah to a peacemaker. Well, in terms of
[32:22] again, you know, in terms of wielding political clout and diplomatic clout,
[32:28] Southey's always had that because they have the oil. In fact, they've managed
[32:31] to arm twist the world even during the Russia Ukraine War. One small instance,
[32:37] and we've discussed this earlier as well, is when Russia stopped gas and
[32:45] oil to US and the Europeans became jittery because winters were approaching and they did
[32:53] not know how they're going to manage. America assured them that, don't worry,
[33:00] We'll find alternative sources for you. And then America goes and talks to
[33:06] a country they've sanctioned for decades, Venezuela. Suddenly Venezuela is no longer a
[33:12] pariah. Yeah, okay, this is geopolitics for you. And then they
[33:17] go and talk to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia tells America they ask South Arabia
[33:24] to increase output. Saudi Arabia tells America, we are not going to increase
[33:30] output. This was around the time when Kashovgi trial was taking place in last
[33:35] the Arebia said that, you know, do away with the trial. They
[33:38] said, we're a democracy. It's a matter in court, you know,
[33:42] taken by private entities. We can't do anything about it, so on and
[33:45] so forth. So the Kashoji trial was the reason why I saw these were
[33:51] upset. But also they will not increase output to reduce prices and give their
[33:58] oil for when they can say this is this is this is not an infinite
[34:04] resource. It's a finite resource. It will get over some days. So
[34:07] they're always liked basically yeah, so they said you're not increasing output. US
[34:14] didn't know where to look, hence they looked towards Venezuela. Things didn't work
[34:17] out. Some of the European countries managed, most of them continue taking gas
[34:23] from Russia. And the sanctions were on oil coming from the seas, but
[34:34] not from pipelines because the pipelines were going to Europe. How is that fair?
[34:38] So India said nothing doing. We will buy oil from Russia and we
[34:45] don't accept or recognize state sanctions. If there has to be a sanction,
[34:52] it should be from the UN. But at the UN, Russia and China
[34:55] whole Vieto power, so there can be no sanclif why do you think there
[35:00] are no sanctions against countries you know that should have been sanctioned in the past,
[35:06] No sanctions because the particular country would have friends either Ony side or that
[35:12] stuffs France, UK or Russian China. So there's always a veto power.
[35:19] So that's where Indiavay conveniently could say no state sanctions. Coming back to Saudi
[35:23] Arabia, so Saudi Arabia is not actually losing friends or becoming a pariah,
[35:30] or was a pariah. They were looked at differently. Okay, that it's
[35:37] a different kind of regime. It's a kingdom, it's a monarchy. Form
[35:42] of government is different. But they all needed Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia was
[35:46] closed and now it's opening up. That's the only difference. In the past,
[35:51] Saudi Arabia would not have done this. Now with a young, you
[35:55] know, man in charge, they want to look like they're looking to the
[36:00] future. They're looking at something where Saudi Arabia will have a major role to
[36:05] play, and this is their time. So any war, any conflict,
[36:09] everybody does need and continues to need Saudi Arabia. So why not be the
[36:15] peacemaker? And who are they doing it with? They're taking a leave out
[36:19] of China. China's superpower, a pariah state, authoritarian government, different government.
[36:24] But nobody could do without China. Up until the COVID nineteen pandemic,
[36:29] Anna, nobody was not doing business with China. And then and then there
[36:34] would happened in there said supply chains that because it was and then they've all
[36:39] gone back to doing business with China. That's what all of them in ruling
[36:45] India, including India of course, all of them. So so these are
[36:50] indispensable forces still the time there are no alternatives. When the alternatives arrive,
[36:55] you will see another jupilitic of ts and you then whoever comes up with those
[37:01] new alternatives, those new changes will be the leading country of that time.
[37:07] For now, we are still dependent on We are still dependent on all our
[37:16] would you say parts and material coming from China, Anything that you make,
[37:23] it comes from China. Anything that you say is made in India has parts
[37:29] from China. From scratch. Nothing is made in any country it comes from.
[37:35] Some of the parts come from somewhere, and there will certainly be one
[37:38] small chunk or piece. That is why there's entire diplomacy is important. Unless
[37:44] you're looking at in the textiles and in handicraft. You know, I'm projecting
[37:49] them right here. Beautiful stuff, they're all in there. But anything when
[37:54] it comes to gadgets, even electronics, even your bud else. You know,
[38:01] during during because you're talking chin during COVID nineteen pandemic and the the months
[38:12] after the year after when things started opening up for Sodivali and for Holy they
[38:17] said they had already said we're banning Chinese products, Chinese products. But the
[38:22] pitch car is yeah, yeah, made in China. All all the crackers,
[38:27] pitch cars also made in Tea, all of them. They're they're cheap
[38:31] because the optics back to your crackers, all your some of them come from
[38:39] sugar car see which is again a different in a horrid story you know to
[38:44] tell. But most of them come from the lights. The fairy lights,
[38:47] fairy lights everything you all your lights nowadays are mostly you know, China made,
[38:55] or some part would be China made. The led Bult or something so
[39:00] China has cloud, Saudi Arabia has cloud. They're now trying to capitalize on
[39:07] that economic cloud by becoming more than just economic powers, because they could have
[39:15] done it many years ago. But the vision is now to become bigger than
[39:20] just being a very very rich kingdom. Yeah, which is what they're doing
[39:27] precisely. Yeah. You know, we have mentioning China and the global South
[39:36] for I mean, the entire discussion now, but a little bit about India.
[39:42] And I read this way interesting article by half him in Jacob and I
[39:45] mentioned that. But you know, we mentioned about Turkey, you know,
[39:51] during the Russia of Ukraine War. So far, the most effective agreements between
[39:55] the two you know, warring sizes have been broken by Turkey, most notably
[40:00] the one that enabled the transfer of food, greens and agricultural products, the
[40:06] Black Sea Black Black Sea Yes, Black Sea Green Initiative. Yes. And
[40:12] besides Turkey, countries like Brazil and Indonesia they have also tried to bring the
[40:17] both the sides, you know, closer in their own way, but those
[40:21] attempts tend to be dismissed by Russia because Moscow sees these countries as being closer
[40:27] to the Western world also influence inuence. Indonesia was playing a role only because
[40:32] of the G twenty. They were posts of the G twenty. They engaged
[40:37] Russia finally got to got them to sign that joint communicate, so that that
[40:45] was because they needed a successful G twenty Yes, and they wanted the draft
[40:50] to be accepted for it to become a formal communicate, which might add will
[40:54] be a very difficult ask for India to get this time around, because she's
[41:00] taking a very hard that time. That time, I mean it was war,
[41:05] but during the Bali's summit was Shanker only who actually got Russia. I
[41:12] mean the Indian side only got Russia to accept the paragraphs that were included.
[41:16] But here on the contrary where it comes to your own country, because Nisia
[41:22] played a very important role in getting them to agree. It was just the
[41:25] line that Prime Minister Moody said, it's not a near of war, adding
[41:30] that into the paragraph was an achievement for India. But it was a successful
[41:35] Bali for Indonesia. And when it comes to their own summit, it would
[41:38] be very difficult because things have changed drastically on the ground and with Ukraine now
[41:45] hitting and attacking crimea more of Dawn Bass now Moscow that you need to include.
[41:53] It doesn't seem like and they're going ahead talking about neo Nazi and so
[42:00] on and so forth, showing examples. But then you did, I remember
[42:06] then you did say that will ultimately you arrive at some consensus because we want
[42:13] because all these elections Indias India will make sure there's sound consensus document. But
[42:21] what the document looks like a communicate for sure. What that document looks like
[42:25] is what additions for subtractions they don't know and for India to influence the West
[42:36] and say, well, if they don't want it, they might not want
[42:38] these paragraphs, but we need to communicate. Is easier to communicate to the
[42:43] West today than to Russia because Russia is at for so Russia might not listen.
[42:49] But if it tells the G seven that, well, we still need
[42:53] communicate and we'll do a separate chairman summary where we'll say that these were the
[42:58] paths that were not agreed upon and had their firsts in the chairman somebody.
[43:00] That could be a solution. Now, the point where I was coming from
[43:05] Geita coming at geta that you know Russia that it says that you know,
[43:10] these are closer to the Western world, and similarly Ukraine and the Western world,
[43:15] they won't see China as being a neutral arbiter. And we saw how
[43:20] Russia wasn't invited to the recent talks in Saudi So this leaves India as being
[43:24] perhaps the only country that is being aggressively quoted by both sides Ukraine and Russia,
[43:32] and also gives a lot of leverage in trying our hand at being the
[43:37] pacemaker in this situation. And the article that I was talking about by Happyman
[43:42] Jacob, he wrote that India could try and attempt this through semi official Track
[43:50] one point five and unofficial Track two conversations between diplomats from the US, EU,
[43:58] Russia and uk because Ukraine is not a member of G twenty, and
[44:01] identifying areas such as food security where both sides have to arrive at a consensus
[44:08] for the greater good, and that these things could be attempted at the sidelines
[44:13] of the G twenty. India is also very well placed historically here because like
[44:20] even during you know, wars such as the Cargill War or confrontations with China,
[44:25] we have always maintained contact and negotiations with the other side. My question
[44:30] here being that if there is so much good to say about how India could
[44:36] be an effective interlocutor here, then why haven't we heard more about this from
[44:42] the Indian side, Like why are we attending the Saudi Peas talks and not
[44:46] organizing our own where Russia would be obligated to show up, or you know,
[44:52] like since you have been tracking the G twenty very closely, now you
[44:55] would know if such attempts have been probably already made from the Indian side,
[45:00] but have been kept under the radar. See some areas of black and white
[45:05] for tire for Russia. India certainly is one of those countries because India's a
[45:09] strategic partner of Russia. Russia, it will not be acceptable for Russia that
[45:15] India tries to, you know, get into a space where because at the
[45:22] end of the day, all of them realize that there will be given take
[45:25] yea and Russia will have to give in to a few demands. Would India
[45:30] want to be seen as the country negotiating that conceding of space by Russia?
[45:37] For Russia, it's very clear, you're either on my side or you're not.
[45:43] Yeah, and it's the reason why the jeetment in Indonesia. Ukrainian president
[45:52] had dialed in and had a conversation with the G seven in every other meeting,
[46:00] including the G seven in Japan. He was invited over here, he's
[46:04] not invited. Ukraine is not invited, not as a special guest. As
[46:07] well. We have special guest countries also coming. Ukraine is not one of
[46:12] them. If the G seven decide to hold something on the sidelines, then
[46:17] Ukraine again will be dialed in Zelenski and that will make for a big news.
[46:23] But but becoming a peace broker in a place where you've already to an
[46:31] extent taken aside, you're buying more oil than ever before from Russia, Yeah,
[46:37] they will already think that you have tilted towards one side. You're not
[46:42] neutral. When you're not neutral, how do you then find common ground for
[46:49] a solution. Yes. Yes, The country that has not taken sides because
[46:53] it has no need to buy anything from them is Saudi Arabia. Okay,
[47:00] because who security is a problem. Yes, but they have found their own
[47:05] ways of handling. And I don't think there was too much of important from
[47:08] that part of the world. So and alternatives are available, but not to
[47:15] the extent that in the way that India has positioned itself. So by this
[47:21] logic might not be acceptable to the West, Okay, or do Ukraine?
[47:27] Yeah, and Ukraine might be saying so what Ukraine does is engages India to
[47:31] say you are friends with Russia. Tell them this. But if India were
[47:37] to sit in the room, would Ukraine trust or negotiation. I do think
[47:42] that India has a role to play in forging peace. How they want to
[47:47] play it is something we'll have to see. Who who else is going to
[47:52] be in the room is going to be important because certainly it just can't be
[47:55] Indian negotiating peace between Russia. Of course, but it has like India has
[48:00] positioned itself as this peacemaker time and again. Actually India has not mediated between
[48:07] countries. No, in terms of peacemaker. In terms of has been it
[48:14] was kind of has been a bearer of peace in the part of the peace
[48:19] keeping, but bant peace. Yeah. But I'm saying that when India was
[48:23] to assume the twenty presidency, you know, by proclaiming all this that it's
[48:29] not the end of the word. I mean, it's not near a war
[48:31] of war, so it has kind of position itself that you know, this
[48:35] is just telling them to stop fighting. The diplomacy is their way forward,
[48:38] but not telling Russia, but telling both sides to stop. For Ukraine is
[48:45] very clear, you recognize that Russia's the aggressor why are you saying both of
[48:50] both sides should stop? We are not fighting. They came into our land,
[48:54] right, That's what Ukraine and say India maintains that there are threat person
[49:00] sptions, so on and so forth whatever Russia, you know, things of
[49:04] with Ukraine saying that they're going to join the NATO, it was, according
[49:07] to them, a direct threat to their own sovereignty and they did not want
[49:15] really that. And similarly, US also gets quite jittery if they have their
[49:21] so called enemies in their backyard. Of course, the Cuban missile crisis is
[49:24] one, Solomon Islands is another. If you have any movement in Venezuela,
[49:30] that's also a concern for them, so in their backyard if it can't happen.
[49:35] Russia also taken a position just because of that, having said that nobody
[49:38] should be justifying war. You cannot enter another territory just because we understand all
[49:44] of that. But because of the positions that have been taken for now,
[49:47] see Saudi Arabia took the lead, should India want to, India also can
[49:52] take the lead and you will see participation. But if Russian and Ukraine are
[49:58] in the room, and if Ukraine does not want it and Russia comes into
[50:01] the room, then there will be walkouts. But if it is an agreed
[50:07] negotiation and not just deliberations, then you will have both of the both the
[50:13] sides in the room because they would mean business. Yeah, But just finally
[50:16] to end our conversation, you know it is actually agreed. It is very
[50:22] known that that Russia will not agree for peace stalks diplomatically. It again comes
[50:28] down to those uh you know, ten point consensus that Ukraine wants, which
[50:32] is kind of no deal to Russia. So like your last thoughts as to
[50:37] do you think this sward genuinely can be put to an end with such brownie
[50:43] points geopolitical peace forums and summits, because when Russia has clearly projected it's you
[50:51] know, will that we will not agree for peace talks diplomatically, So what's
[50:55] the way out then? Like, how do we say this? Then?
[50:58] See, like I said at the end of the day. For Russia,
[51:01] it has taken hardline because of the political situation. It'll be a political suicide
[51:07] to say we'll give up all the land that we fought and lives have been
[51:13] lost to win. But for any negotiation, Russia will have to withdraw from
[51:19] certain places. Maybe not Zapporussia because it has the nuclear power plant, but
[51:22] what about the rest For Ukraine, it's not just about withdrawal, swap of
[51:30] prisoners, getting their Ukrainian children back who are now in the Russian side,
[51:37] so on and so forth. Not just that, it's also about what are
[51:39] they willing to give in terms of assurance. There is certain security assurances that
[51:46] Russia will ask for. When Ukraine gave up its nuclear arms, thinking that
[51:52] at the end of the Soviet era, a lot of people say they made
[51:57] a huge mistake. Today they not a nuclear power. But what's it that
[52:05] they're going to be willingly assure rush of when it comes to their engagement with
[52:10] the West. Anything that they do, the West will not be happy.
[52:16] So the West has burned billions of dollars in Ukraine, and should an assurance
[52:22] be of not aligning militarily with the West, then all of America's efforts to
[52:30] have in roads is going to come to a knot. So for now I
[52:36] don't see any peaceful solution to the problem. I only am thinking when will
[52:43] fatigue set in and resources dry up to the extent that they're forced to come
[52:49] to the talking table, and then there will be very little room left to
[52:54] say, well, if you do this and I do that, like the
[52:59] has the upper hand because even Europe is losing patients now with this work continuing.
[53:04] How long can this keep sending money, aid weapons? And then now
[53:09] their reports of corruption of the aid that has gone to Ukraine. One of
[53:15] the reasons why they could never make it to EU and NATO is because Ukraine
[53:20] is not on the corruption scale, is not very clean. Europe has standards
[53:27] on various things stability, political stability, democracy, corruption, and in all
[53:34] those on all those grounds, Ukraine used to fail terribly. That's why that's
[53:37] why they never could make it to the EU. Now, if you can't
[53:40] make it to the EU, how will you make it to the NATO,
[53:43] which is a military alliance and the benchmark for the very same parameters is higher
[53:47] than joining a political or economic grouping. So it's going to be interesting but
[53:54] for now Saudis have made in roads and taken a very important step forward in
[54:00] becoming a phase of the Global South peace broker of the region and Turkeys deliverables
[54:08] yet, but it still has kind of in terms of the project, in
[54:15] terms of the deliverables. Yes, so if you just go by what Key
[54:20] was saying about it, their presidential office said that the consultations were productive,
[54:24] that the Greek principles on which adjust and lasting piece should be built were discussed,
[54:30] and that the conversations were open, honest representatives put in put their views.
[54:36] Also, this is a meeting where you're getting a sense of who it
[54:38] stands where after these many months of war. Right so now there were different
[54:45] views, but all participants demonstrated their country's commitment to the principles of the UN
[54:50] Charter that in itself spells and screams sovereignty and territorial integrity. Right, But
[54:58] is there going to be peace formula as such? Not really. What they
[55:01] have decided on is to dialogue further and see if they can come to a
[55:07] diplomatic solution to the entire crisis. The parties have agreed to continue working at
[55:15] various representative representative levels to establish a just and comprehensive peace. But for now,
[55:22] Anna, that piece is not going to come about any time in the
[55:28] near future. It is going to take a long time. But this meeting
[55:32] is also about Jetta and Soudi Arabia, the fact that Saudi Arabia today has
[55:37] become an important player and stakeholder when it comes to peace. So we'll have
[55:44] to again wait and see where they're fresh and Ukraine can come to terms with
[55:49] how the international community are now viewing the war and are agreed to a negotiation
[55:54] or agree to a peaceful negotiation. The official statements are that neither is keep
[56:01] interested in talking to Moscow, nor is Moscow interested in talks to Kiev.
[56:07] So the positions are hardened. And unless and unless fatigue, yeah, I
[56:12] think the loss of resources, exhaustion of resources, I don't think that's going
[56:17] to any forward movement. But once that happens, and should that happen,
[56:22] you will see the very same players play very important role in bringing them to
[56:29] the talking table. Yeah, I think ultimately it might come to, like
[56:34] you just mentioned, the fatigue of resources that sort of compel them. But
[56:39] it was a very nicely interesting, very long as well very long as well.
[56:45] But we keep that one our milestone intact. You keep that intact.
[56:52] Don't tell me that you also gives us long answers. I'm going to that
[56:57] ideeo political shifts. Know how many shifts to do? Make us out it?
[57:01] Oh yeah, that's because you know, people should see the shifts that
[57:06] happened in the past are happening in the present. And I also mentioned new
[57:09] political shifts of their future. There's alternatives. Be sure country comes up with
[57:15] alternatives. There will be shift again. Yes, okay, so this is
[57:19] being edged in history. You know that these podcasts reservoir. Oh my god.
[57:24] Now next time I'll have to come better, prepare proper answers. No,
[57:29] no, no, it's always a pleasure. And to listeners, I'm
[57:34] sure as well. You know they have been. By the way, I've
[57:37] never mentioned this, but there have been a lot of my family members and
[57:40] my friends who have been listening to this podcast who say that I'm not going
[57:45] to write on your the numbers and males that you say, but it's just
[57:49] like a note of appreciation. Please thank you on my behalf yeah, and
[57:57] the team's behalf. Yes. So I'll retorate the number which is eight five,
[58:04] double eight nine, double six, double line six and the email idea
[58:07] spots at the rate in there today dot com. So please don't be like
[58:12] my friends. Just share an email or like a note of thanks or appreciation
[58:16] or whatever you have. So until next time when we discussed yes, thank
[58:22] you, thank you,

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