# G20: Will India's Elections Soften Joint Communique's Language On Russia-Ukraine War? | Geeta's World, Ep 54

An episode of [Geeta's World](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1635741757), 25 Jul 2023, 43 min.

Audio: https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/56214276/25_jul_23_geetas_world_25_july_re_128.mp3

The G20 has been a long-standing topic of discussion, particularly in the global south, and with India taking on the presidency for the first time since the forum's establishment in 1999, it has garnered even more attention. From December 2022 to November 2023, India's presidency offers a significant opportunity for the country to influence global economic and financial policies and engage in constructive dialogue with other nations on matters of shared interest. But is it going this way so far? Has it fared well? Why is it that despite several meetings held, we have not been able to deliver a joint communique? Be it the G-20 Labour Ministers held in Indore that ended on July 21, or the G-20 Energy Transition Ministerial in Goa, or the foreign ministerial meeting. In this episode, our host Anna Priyadarshini and foreign affairs editor at India Today, TV Today Network Geeta Mohan focus on why all meetings have failed to deliver a joint communique, why it is crucial, what role do Russia and China play here, and what are the chances of having a joint communique now. They also identify the specific shortcomings and loopholes that may have been overlooked and assess the efficiency of the G20's actions under India's presidency. Listen in! Produced by Anna Priyadarshini Sound Mix by Sachin Dwivedi

## Transcript

[0:00] This is India Today podcasts. The G twenty presidency has been a long standing
[0:08] topic of discussion for quite some time now, but ministrtal meetings have failed to
[0:13] produce a joint communicate due to opposition from Russia and China. But why is
[0:18] Russia opposing the language related to the Russia Ukraine War which was previously included in
[0:24] the Bali Summit and is now being added to the current document by India.
[0:29] But Russia Ukraine now is a very very strongly divided opinion on whether if it
[0:37] should be mentioned in the way it was mentioned in Indonesia or not because things
[0:42] for Russia are getting difficult internationally. But isn't this already like an embarrassment that
[0:48] despite Russia being India's close ally, none of the ministratial meetings or working groups
[0:54] have been able to issue a joint communication so far. I don't see a
[0:59] space where Russia will embarrass India. But I also don't see Russia allowing a
[1:06] very strong statement on Ukraine given the kind of attacks that we've seen in the
[1:11] recent past. Hello, I'm Anna Pradeshoni with India to Day TV's Foreign affairs
[1:18] editor Githa Mohun Where with Githa's astute and incisive crasp of world affairs. We
[1:23] delve into all that is urgent and pressing in world politics and comprehend how these
[1:29] developments in other countries could shape India's global ambitions of being a Wishwa Guru.
[1:36] Let's unravel Githa's wold. So this is one of those rarest days. Not
[1:44] that at least, I think it's been like a decade that the last that
[1:49] I could see. And yes, it is one thing, but we'll do
[1:56] it next week and then and then I get your message. At this time
[2:00] I'm recording why because I'm stuck in meetings that could happen. But we'll do
[2:05] somewhere outside and nicely, okay, not an office, thank you so much,
[2:12] so Geita. This time we'll be visiting I mean kind of revisiting what
[2:17] we have been covering for quite some time now, which is j twenty and
[2:22] you have been covering that as well in your reports too. I was reading
[2:25] up for this episode with plenty of reports, plethora of those. So it
[2:30] has been a long standing in a topic of discussion, particularly in the global
[2:35] South wide. Because India has taken the presidency for the first time since the
[2:38] forum's establishment in nineteen ninety nine. So this time around, you know,
[2:44] we'll be focusing on a different angle, which is about joint communicating. A
[2:49] lot of readings there on, I mean online, but several meetings have been
[2:54] held, you know, have been conducted, but we have not been able
[2:59] to deliver a joint communicate, whether made the G twenty Labor Ministers meeting that
[3:04] was held in Indoor, or the Energy Transition Ministerial meeting in Goa or the
[3:10] Foreign Ministerial meeting, we did not have a joint communicate. So this episode
[3:16] will focus on why all meetings have failed to deliver and why a joint communicate
[3:23] is crucial in the first place, and what role do China and Russia play
[3:28] here and now what are the chances of actually having a joint communicate in the
[3:31] coming months and whether they are you know, shortcomings and loopholes. So to
[3:36] begin with, geta you know, let's also like understand and give our listeners
[3:40] kind of and understanding a depth, a deep understanding as to the significance of
[3:46] having a joint communicate and why it serves as a crucial marker of the G
[3:52] twenty. Like the Forum's efficiency because and I'll give you just like a brief
[3:57] as to what exactly a joint communication is. It is a formal statement,
[4:01] which is, if I'm not wrong, which is issued collectively by the participating
[4:08] countries at the end of a summit or a meeting, outlining the key agreements,
[4:13] commitments and areas of consensus reached during the meeting. Now, the hindrance
[4:18] in reaching this communicate joint communicate during the recent meetings appears to be the ongoing
[4:26] Russia Ukraine War because given that in a Russia, as a G twenty member,
[4:30] it's reluctant to be in a portrayed as the party at fault in the
[4:33] conflict. But achieving this communicate is vital for G twenty sustainability. So and
[4:41] in fact, I'll give you a few examples in the past as well.
[4:44] When you know, in twenty fourteen, during the G twenty summit in Brisbane,
[4:48] Australia, even in the aftermath of Russia's annexation of Crimea, a joint
[4:55] declaration was successfully issued without explicitly mentioned the conflict. In twenty twenty two,
[5:02] the last summit in Bali, Indonesia, you know, there were tense moments
[5:08] as to the declaration was you know how it was negotiated until the very last
[5:13] moment of the summit, and Putin did not attend the summit, but eventually
[5:16] a joint document was released. And also interestingly, both Russia and China they
[5:23] agreed on the same language regarding Ukraine in the Bali Summit, which is included
[5:28] in this particular summit in India. So I want to understand from you that
[5:33] how does the G twenty then address and you know, overcome such conflicts while
[5:39] upholding its commitment to you know, fostering international collaboration and finding solutions to pressing
[5:46] global concerns. Okay, So that was a very nicely put long introduction to
[5:51] what G twenty and India's presidency of the G twenty this year really means,
[5:57] Yes, we will be talking about or Indias, we'll be talking about the
[6:01] global South, and the focus certainty is going to be on how to improve
[6:09] the economic environment or globally after the pandemic. So the world is suffering and
[6:16] also because of the Russia Ukraine war. But the bigger issue again is going
[6:20] to be the joint communic and like you said, after every track, so
[6:26] what happens in a G twenty presidency is ahead of the G twenty summit,
[6:31] that is the Prime, ministerial and president shi level meeting, Heads of State
[6:36] and Heads of Government meeting in September. There are a lot of other finance
[6:42] track, Commerce track, trade track, Digital track, so various other tracks
[6:49] in which meetings take place at ministerial level, Development, women's empowerment, so
[6:56] at that ministerial level, when a meeting takes place, at the end of
[6:59] it, you need a joint communica. Now there are issues when it comes
[7:03] to a joint communica. One is that a joint community has to be by
[7:09] consensus. If there is no consensus, a document cannot be put out.
[7:15] Then what is put out if the document is not put out a chair as
[7:17] summary, which means the chair will put out a summary of whatever has happened
[7:23] and how all the countries had views on which subject and what the communica looked
[7:28] like and which are the areas where countries differed. In Indonesia last year it
[7:35] was difficult because yes, Russia had just invaded or taken Ukraine to war in
[7:43] twenty fourteen. When they annexed Crimea, it was an annexation with don Bas
[7:48] becoming a hot hot area, but there were a lot of issues with regards
[7:54] to people within. There was a lot of fight happening with the people in
[7:58] eastern Ukraine and Kiev, so it was not it was not particularly considered an
[8:05] invasion by Russia. Crimean annexation happened with the help of Russian forces, but
[8:13] the people within again orchestrated it. And yes, that did not lead to
[8:18] a consensus in terms of having taken Russia out of the grouping, because there
[8:26] are many countries that still support Russia, although in the G seven, which
[8:31] is back then G eight, Russia was thrown out. So even if you
[8:37] want to take somebody out, it has to be by consensus. If you
[8:39] want a document put out, it has to be by consensus. So over
[8:43] here what is happening is there are a lot of conversations that are happening,
[8:50] and the paragraph where everybody gets stuck. There are a few others where you
[8:54] might seek consensus. No consensus change in the way the wordings are put in
[9:01] the paragraph, like for example, Indo Pacific, how is China going to
[9:05] look at it? The reading has to be very very careful in terms of
[9:09] how the words are put and how the paragraph is placed. But Russia Ukraine
[9:16] now is a very very strongly divided opinion on whether if it should be mentioned
[9:22] in the way it was mentioned in Indonesia or not. So what is happening
[9:26] over here in India's presidency is the fact that things have moved forward where there
[9:33] is no consensus. We saw consensus in Bali with the paragraphs on Russia Ukraine
[9:41] war included where they said it's not an era of war and Russia agreed to
[9:46] the text. But now things have moved forward in all the tracks that we
[9:50] have seen in India. In all probability, this would be the most difficult
[9:56] presidency now. I was speaking to a few officers and I said, is
[10:01] India's presidency the most difficult presidency of the G twenty And they said, well,
[10:07] actually not really, because we've had presidencies during COVID nineteen pandemic, and
[10:16] then we had the Indonesian presidency when the war broke out, and they really
[10:20] had a difficult time negotiating terms to get a joint communicate with the language that
[10:28] is acceptable. And I remember Anna, we had done an episode on G
[10:33] twenty when I was in Bali, or after I returned the community was supposed
[10:39] to come out in at around noon or just after the leaders finished their fourth
[10:48] session. There were four sessions, and it did not. We kept waiting
[10:52] and the community came out much late in the evening. By then Sergei Lavrov,
[10:58] who was representing Putin, had already flown out. And then the consensus
[11:03] document was released to US or released per se. Why did that happen because
[11:09] they were negotiating the language till the very last minute that this is unacceptable,
[11:15] this is acceptable. But then nonetheless they put all of that in. And
[11:20] if you see the Bali declaration, it not only talks about condemning but and
[11:26] I'm going to come to why Russia is not wanted, but it talks about
[11:30] condemning. That the UN Security Council has condemned most members. I keep saying
[11:35] this, we said this. I suppose in just our previous episode where most
[11:41] is very important. The moment you say most, you mean there is no
[11:43] consensus. So most members strongly condemned the war. And later on they also
[11:50] talk about recognizing that the G twenties not the forum to resolve security issues,
[11:56] and they also go ahead and talk about defending all the purposes and principles enshrined
[12:01] in the chart of the United Nations and adhering to international humanitarian law. That's
[12:05] paragraph for. So these were the two paragraphs that were agreed. Now,
[12:09] since India's presidency began, India has been insisting that not more, not less,
[12:16] let's just stick to Bali. But for Russia that also has become an
[12:20] unacceptable ground. China is standing by Russia. Yeah, and so different reasons
[12:28] because it says that Jataw India is not a forum to discuss your political issues.
[12:33] That's what China. They're keeping it clean because this is a country that's
[12:37] considered an aggressor and has gone in. But for various other reasons, they
[12:43] say that you know, this whole idea that US can bring in NATO,
[12:48] but Russia cannot defend itself to ensure that it has you know, space,
[12:54] so all and so forth. But I'm just saying that since then, India
[12:58] in all the tracks has been saying, let's stick to the Bali text.
[13:03] Now that also has become unacceptable. Why is the bigger that's the bigger question.
[13:07] Exactly why is it that Russia has moved from having accepted a document a
[13:13] year ago to now same language, same language to now not accepting it in
[13:20] any of the tracks because things for Russia are getting difficult internationally on the ground
[13:28] difficult, but internationally too. Once this Ukraine text was accepted at the G
[13:35] twenty and the document was put out, the fact that they stuck to one
[13:43] part where they said, well, you know, everybody, quoted Prime Minister
[13:46] Maudion, this is not an era of war, and Russia kept reiterating that,
[13:50] yes, but it is not an era of war for anybody. So
[13:56] if you're thinking we are the productors, or we are the ones who provoked,
[14:00] not the case they provoked us first, or they're taking us to war,
[14:05] we had no other options. But they also realized nobody's buying that argument
[14:09] anymore, that the narrative is clear in calling out Russia as an aggressor,
[14:18] as a country that has invaded the other and not looking beyond why what of
[14:24] it does not really matter because a lot of lives have been lost, there's
[14:28] been a lot of damage, and a country's border has been preached. Yeah,
[14:35] and you know you were mentioning India's, I mean, will it be
[14:39] the toughest presidency for India? And the conflicting stance that Russia has taken now
[14:45] during India's presidency. You know, I remember when we were doing the initial
[14:50] episodes of D twenty. I remember asking you this that Russia has often attracted
[14:56] condemnation at the date twenty for its actions as a in the twenty fourteen twenty
[15:01] four his annexation of Crimea. And I asked you that when there is a
[15:05] widespread consensus against the war in Ukraine since it's causing problems with food scarcity and
[15:13] inflation, will India's presidency with some sort of a tongue twister for India,
[15:18] because you know, we are one of the few countries who have still not
[15:22] openly condemned Russia and have faced criticism for our stance for the US, which
[15:28] precisely is Russia's concern. That whyd with not included the sanctions that Russia has
[15:33] been had been imposed by the US by the West. So I was that
[15:37] not included in the language? So I mean, I just want to understand
[15:41] this a bit more that you know, is it because of if we look
[15:45] at the other way around it, is it because of India's so called neutral
[15:48] position on the war that Russia is not agreeing on this? I mean,
[15:52] there's no consensus that we can see as of now. No. In fact,
[15:56] you know, Anna, what is happening is that if there is no
[15:58] concern, will it look like a successful summit? Of course not. And
[16:03] if Russia as a friend, should Russia be doing that too India? Exactly.
[16:11] The dilemma over here is not whether if their friends enemies so on and
[16:15] so forth. The dilemma over here for Putin, for Russia is that should
[16:21] they go ahead and re emphasize a paragraph that they're not agreeing with at the
[16:30] cost of, you know, India failing in delivering a consensus document at the
[16:38] end of the summit. For Russia, things have become difficult. How I
[16:44] think this is my reading. That's since the beginning of this year we have
[16:48] seen an advance, a sort of a pushback by Ukraine and recapturing of certain
[17:00] areas by Ukraine where Russia had to push back from certain areas in Hairson,
[17:07] especially make Alive and Carson, which did not did not go down well with
[17:14] Russia. Come a few months look at a few months ago and you'll see
[17:19] that Ukraine increased its attacks from within Ukrainian territory where they were trying to recapture
[17:27] territories that were taken by Russia to attacking Crimea. Yea, the moment that
[17:33] happened a lot of things in dynamics changed. The second important reason why I
[17:41] see Russia now becoming more more and more cussid with the idea of not having
[17:47] any reference is you had drones over Moscow. Then recently you've had another breach
[18:00] within Moscow where there have been attacks. The drone breach earlier was intercepted.
[18:06] Now that was over Kremlin. The drone breach in Moscow attacked buildings, even
[18:11] if it was in the b hours. That's a major, major attack on
[18:18] Russian soil. What was the retaliation by Russia when Crimea was attacked for the
[18:25] second time. Russia withdrew from the Black Sea grain initiative, which means you're
[18:30] looking at major food supply, your food security issues. Russia attacked the grainaries
[18:40] or within Ukraine in ad support, which means not only have they withdrawn which
[18:47] not allowing Ukraine now to take their grains out, they've also destroyed the grains
[18:52] a lot of it. In such a scenario, if you're moving forward where
[18:56] Ukraine is attacking areas where and Russia is retaliating and becoming stringent in its position.
[19:03] Who's looking bad Russia is who's looking like a country that is telling the
[19:08] world who's bad Ukraine. Ukraine has managed to do that, you know,
[19:14] with this tactical attacks, because everybody wondered why you're attacking CRIMEA if you're going
[19:19] to get attacked, and you know, and Russia moves out of the Black
[19:23] Sea initiative and your granaries are being attacked somewhere, it seems like it's aligned
[19:30] with how the G seven is looking at the G twenty. The G seven
[19:36] is absolutely clear in what they want in the statement, and the some of
[19:45] the other countries, particularly Russian China, are absolutely opposed. They no longer
[19:49] want to fall into that frame that okay we have. If you look at
[19:52] the third paragraph, it does not condemn Russia. What does it say.
[20:00] It only says that are in the United Nations with five against thirty five obstensions
[20:07] and twelve absent. The Forum UN as a forum deplored and condemned. Most
[20:14] members condemned it because they're mentioning what happened there. So what is India negotiating?
[20:21] India's negotiating a statement where they say let's just put things out that have
[20:26] already happened. Russia is not okay with that anymore. They say, no,
[20:30] we're not playing your game anymore. We'll not play by your rules.
[20:34] You cannot have any reference Angie twenties a consensus document. But what I'm given
[20:40] to understand is that Finance Track and Commerce Track digital these are ministry real level
[20:47] tracks. At the end of the day, this will be only handled at
[20:52] the highest level. So come September there are two very important meetings. One
[20:57] is the one that will be chaired by Prime Minister Moody himself, and one
[21:03] is the show Part track, the final Show Part Track, which will take
[21:06] place just before the summit. They will have to come to a consensus on
[21:11] what can go in because it cannot be a chairman's documentary, chairman summary with
[21:18] an outcome document. Yeah, it has to be a joint community, which
[21:22] means a final consensus based outcome document. And what could they negotiate in It
[21:29] is not just the language what they want to put in like a middle ground,
[21:33] a middle ground how harsh the text can be, you know. But
[21:40] then that is also I'm sure because G seven is objecting to it. G
[21:45] seven is a powerful grouping that says nothing doing you need to have this in
[21:51] Yeah, and on that note, just I'm trying to understand everything, but
[21:55] yeah, there are too many dilemmas and dichotomies that what we could decipher.
[22:00] But Russia and China they seem to be operating in tandem here in opposing this
[22:04] inclusion of the Bali paragraphs, like you said, like you mentioned that you
[22:08] know, Russia says the Bali paragraphs don't take into account American and European military
[22:14] support provided to Ukraine and the sanctions imposed in Russia and China says the geopolitical
[22:19] issues we shouldn't be discussing. There's a lot of commentary happening now about the
[22:25] possibility of G twenty members agreeing on a joint community and the last ditch efforts
[22:32] and diplomacy that's expected to happen now from the Indian side. But my question
[22:38] here being that isn't this then already like an embarrassment that despite Russia, like
[22:45] you also said that this born Homy you being a close ally, none of
[22:51] the ministerial meetings or working groups so far have been able to issue a joint
[22:56] community. So shouldn't diplomacy have already happen, pinned and yielded results. If
[23:02] Prime Minister Moody has to do what Jokov did, you know, by going
[23:07] to Russia and Ukraine, should he have waited till August, which is just
[23:11] one month prior to the Delhi summit. See, he didn't meet Zelenski,
[23:18] you know, on the sidelines of the G seven in Hiroshima, and he
[23:22] has met President He's in fact met President put In virtually, but they've had
[23:27] quite a few conversations. So to think that the Indian administration were caught onawares
[23:34] would be actually quite immature. They did know that, Violet they were entering
[23:42] their presidency that there could be certain problems when it comes to the Russia Ukraine
[23:48] War. There are some other areas also where there is some you know,
[23:51] their issues with consensus. But that is only to do with the final draft
[23:55] which will be cleared, including China's objections to certain areas when it comes to
[24:00] the Indo Pacific, so on and so forth. But when it comes to
[24:03] this area, it will finally depend on how convincing India is going to be,
[24:12] with President Putin In saying that this needs to be a success, not
[24:18] just for India but for this entire region where you are projecting the global South.
[24:22] And you're saying that this also, this is not G twenty, is
[24:27] not focused on security issues. It's the truth. But when have they not
[24:32] added areas of concern? And in that we will have to see what kind
[24:37] of text will be added. I won't I don't think that there there will
[24:44] be a scenario where India will be left embarrassed to the extent that Russia will
[24:51] not have a text, you know, a consensus document. But what is
[24:56] the compromise that India will have to make. Some think that we'll have to
[25:00] see because if it's anything less than what we see in Bali, which is
[25:06] in fact quite less exactly, it's not a lot at all. So if
[25:10] you look at what is the text in Bali and you compare it to what
[25:15] might be the text here, then I don't see how they can dilute their
[25:22] time kind of omissions. And yes, addition, chin China is playing a
[25:27] very smart role. You see in at the United Nations. They don't go
[25:33] ahead and support Russia in any of the statements. China has not gone ahead
[25:40] and supported Russia. They've only abstained as is India, but they've only abstained.
[25:45] Their statements are very clear about dialogue and diplomacy. So where do I
[25:51] see it headed if there is to be a consensus, I see it headed
[25:56] towards a text that will focus more on dialogue and diplomacy rather than condemnation,
[26:03] because still the time there is condemnation, there is going to be no agreement
[26:08] from the Russian side, And maybe India would want to play that role of
[26:14] saying, you know, of reiterating the whole idea that this is not an
[26:17] era of war by focusing on the aspect of dialogue and diplomacy. But would
[26:22] that be acceptable to the G seven particularly and the rest of the G twenty
[26:27] is something we'll have to wait and see. Having said that, the world
[26:32] is polarized, we are looking at US now engaging China more than ever.
[26:38] After Janet Yell, we've seen some very high profile visits officials from Janet Yellen
[26:44] to quite a few others, including Anthony B. Lincoln. So the secretaries
[26:48] have gone. Henry Kissinger was there, and it just seems like there is
[26:53] a realization of no matter how much you talk about resilience supply chain, which
[27:00] will be the main focus you know, in G twenty and has been the
[27:04] fact is that they will all they're all coming down to understand that still that
[27:08] resilient alternative supply chain you know, is there or exists. China is in
[27:15] a way in dispensable. The focus of America is so much on the Russia
[27:22] Ukraine war that anything that happens now with Taiwan or in the South China Sea
[27:30] is something that China will be an opportunity for China and a huge disadvantage for
[27:34] the West because they will have to move their resources to this area. Right,
[27:40] So this entire engage engagement with China means what that they do have a
[27:45] hand to play. The China has a hand to play, Russia has a
[27:48] hand to play where they will see what advantage they can get. Why should
[27:53] they not look at an advantage in an international forum where they do not want
[27:59] to be embarrassed? Ukraine is not in the room. Doesn't help that,
[28:03] you know, Ukraine is not in the room you have? Where is G
[28:08] seven members now goosing up or maybe engaging more proactively engaging China and Russia over
[28:18] here trying to take its chances. I don't see a space where Anna Russia
[28:23] will embarrass India. But I also don't see Russia allowing a very strong statement
[28:33] on Ukraine given the kind of attacks that we've seen in the recent past,
[28:37] and the more that happens, the more difficult it seems like for Russia to
[28:44] agree on anything on Ukraine. In fact, the war right now, just
[28:49] before winter's kicking, is escalating, so closer to September, things could only
[28:56] get worse than getting better. And that would that would mean and imagine in
[29:02] that sense, in that situation, you'll have to tread carefully and not as
[29:07] to imagine in the Russia's demand. Yes, yeah, so that makes it,
[29:11] doesn't it? Then say that yeah, this is this could be and
[29:15] would be an embarrassment that it already has been for the Indian administration not having
[29:19] a consensus document and they will not have a consensus document through and through all
[29:23] the ministerials are puntil the shopa meeting that will happen just before the summit,
[29:30] and at the end of the day, everything will depend on the leaders.
[29:34] Yeah, there have been talking, there have been conversations. There have been
[29:40] conversations at NSA level. Two. Dobell himself engaging Russia to see to it
[29:45] that there is a text, there is some acceptability in some document, you
[29:48] know, but clue it will all happen closer to September, closer to the
[29:53] summit, and at the end of the day, it all depends on how
[29:59] the leaders are able to convince each other that this is the text that we're
[30:03] looking at. It is a sensible one. It is not one where we
[30:07] are condemning. But it also means anna that who is going to be on
[30:11] the other side of the table. Is it going to be severe Lavrov or
[30:15] is it going to be Putin? If the war escalates come September, we
[30:22] might not see Putin attend. Now a lot of people are saying, see,
[30:26] he's not going to forward the bricks in South Africa, so he might
[30:30] not go for he might not come to India for the G twenty as well.
[30:34] There's a huge difference. What is the difference. The difference is that
[30:38] in the International Criminal Court there is an arrest warrant against Putin. South Africa
[30:45] is a signatory that is a ratified ICC. India has not ratified it yet,
[30:52] so that arrest warrant does not apply to India, so he might not
[30:56] go to South Africa. All those South Africa says that euro we are not
[31:00] going to do it. But the fact that they're signatories and have ratified,
[31:07] India has not ratified it. So this is the space where he can come,
[31:11] show himself to the World project himself and say well, I'm here and
[31:18] I'm here to stay. But but if he comes, and when he comes,
[31:23] what's the negotiation going to be like? Between Moody and Putin? This
[31:27] is a relationship that is far beyond these two leaders. It is far older
[31:33] than these two leaders. But at this point in time, Putin is not
[31:37] thinking about the historicity of ties between the two countries. He's thinking of what
[31:45] he needs out of the G twenty. His country is at war. Of
[31:51] course, the message has to be allowed having a statement on Ukraine. Does
[31:56] that serve Russia's purpose? If it does not, he will not allow it.
[32:00] And since we have seen the stand and the position that Russia has taken,
[32:05] it doesn't seem like the Bali declaration text is going to be anywhere near
[32:13] consensus situation, of course, but I think that the Indian side is going
[32:16] to be more diplomatic about it, and maybe they'll have changed the statement and
[32:22] movie there's no other coho diplomacy there. Yeah, I don't think there are.
[32:25] But you know, before we wind up, just because we have discussed
[32:30] this in the past as well, and now that all these situations and different
[32:35] kind of angles have come into play, you also said about you know,
[32:39] G twenty as a forum, like it's efficiency has always been questioned and how
[32:45] this time it's more of like it's it's heightened. But just to reiterate on
[32:50] this efficiency in the face of such immense polarization in the world today because of
[32:54] the Ukraine War, US China relations everything, do you see any sort of
[33:00] hope for India, Because that's how it was being presented, like it was
[33:06] a big spectacle, you know, when it assumed this presidency. Now do
[33:09] you see any sort of hope for India being able to, you know,
[33:14] get these countries sit at a table and talk about the global food crisis and
[33:19] other such important issues. We've discussed this, but because you know, my
[33:22] reading of this has been that apart from managing to get a joint statement from
[33:28] all attendees, this year's G twenty will be mostly characterized by these tensions,
[33:32] because these are ultimately overpowering. Like when I was reading the outcome documents.
[33:38] I hardly like went through, you know, all the points that were probably
[33:44] agreed upon, that were actually agreed upon. But when it's like time and
[33:49] again, all these overpowering things like Russia, Ukrainan, China's so called aggression
[33:53] that overpass And where is the efficiency of G twenty gone or is it still
[34:00] there? If at all? That's the case again a very important point,
[34:04] Anna, but G twenty has never been a very cohesive body and certainly not
[34:13] one that can impose decisions. It is a body that builds frameworks for countries
[34:22] to come together and work. That's all there is. What are the deliverables
[34:28] from the Bali summit? Where have we moved on any of the things that
[34:34] were that were spelt out in the Bali summit they spoke about Let's see,
[34:39] And that is also questioning, Ea, now that you're mentioning that we agreed
[34:45] on Bali and now again we are being stuck on that same thing. So
[34:49] the same thing. Yes, what only happens is that some of the things
[34:53] move on the economic front, some of the financial institutions and the and the
[35:00] funding of certain certain things that moves. What is India going to do?
[35:07] India is going to put forth a lot of new initiatives quite focused on financing,
[35:13] debt restructuring, how to look at taxation of MNCs. These are big,
[35:20] big items because if you talk about them, you're opening an entire area
[35:25] that has to be negotiated renegotiated. We're talking about in multinational company. This
[35:30] is absolutely finance sector, but multinational companies and how they should be taxed.
[35:37] Debt restructuring is something where you know, maybe China will have a little bit
[35:42] of a problem because most of the you know, debt problems in many of
[35:47] the countries in Global South are pertain store are because of China's involvement. So
[35:58] there we will have to see how China is looking at the debt restructuring you
[36:02] know policies. So India's coming up with a lot of things, but they're
[36:07] not just long term, they're more focused. It looks like a good document
[36:15] apart from or proposals when it comes to these areas UM financing funding of certain
[36:22] you know projects, health sector, UM to do with the Global South economy
[36:30] and how to help the Global South economy, climate change in climate financing,
[36:37] where the Global South is actually the victim of historical wrongdoings of the West and
[36:45] then they're paying a price to get to carbon zero as well. So these
[36:50] are very important areas that in the Indian presidency is going to focus on.
[36:57] Will they deliver or will they not? One can't say. But because this
[37:01] is not a forum where you can say these have been agreed upon, so
[37:07] a timeline can be set and these policies can be imposed. These are just
[37:14] very normative, fluid structures where you're saying that let's cooperate on these fronts.
[37:21] At the end of the day, a lot of cooperation, if you see
[37:23] from the G twenty, translates into bilateral cooperation rather than only multilateral. The
[37:31] multilateral financing banking sector regulations are very important, but these are errors that remain
[37:38] multilateral, and these are errors that need to be addressed. But you know,
[37:44] you were saying this though just like a last thought that you know,
[37:47] came to my mind that you know, when we were discussing it was a
[37:51] big spectacle D twenty and everything, and we were talking about how it's coinciding
[37:57] with the elections that are due next year. You think that something like this,
[38:02] like you know, now that we're reading about it, we know that
[38:06] there could be a possibility of difference between or like a blot or like a
[38:10] question on the bon homie that is being presented between Putting and Moody. Prime
[38:15] Minister Moody, I mean, do all these things like not having a joint
[38:20] communicate. This is also a part over it will open. So but can
[38:24] this have an effect on something like collections if there is no yes, because
[38:30] there will be a consensus Documentara, I assure you you know all this yeah
[38:37] aside, so ultimately you'll have to okay. So that is also our mindsel.
[38:40] Yes, they are going and saying that if not by ministers or the
[38:46] ministry rule, the leadership will have to get it done, which means Prime
[38:52] Minister Modi has to get it done. We're talking about G twenty a day
[38:57] ahead of Prime Minister Moody actually inaugurating the venue, which is going to happen
[39:01] tomorrow, that's the twenty sixth of July and Prime Mister Maudi will be inaugurating
[39:07] the venue of the G twenty. It's a massive area. Will the spectacle
[39:15] and the optics overtake the substance or will there actually be substance from the G
[39:22] twenty. That's the question because you know, right here, let's not.
[39:28] Let's not. If you go around Delhi you only see G twenty hoardings billboards
[39:35] everywhere. So if you ask me, this is closer to elections. This
[39:39] is the big this is and as it's going to get bigger. When you
[39:45] have world leaders descending upon the capital city and putting half of the town into
[39:52] lockdown mode is a different thing altogether. But in that there will be so
[39:59] much. You see, we are only looking at the Joint Communicator today,
[40:02] so yes, we focused on that, but just you know, broadening it
[40:06] and zooming out a little. There are going to be so many bilaterals.
[40:12] They are going to be separate, smaller multilaterals like a you know, a
[40:17] trio and quad, not necessarily the quad that we know, but a quad
[40:22] of different countries, you see. And then there are those inviting countries,
[40:30] very important ones. India selected them knowing exactly why they have been whether if
[40:36] it's the neighborhood, extended neighborhood, Africa, Latin America, West Asia,
[40:43] it's Southeast Asia. It is decided with a lot of thought. So this
[40:49] is not just a mere spectacle. It is beyond. There are some achievements
[40:54] that you will have to give it to them, the administration in terms of
[41:00] what they gain out of it. But all of it will come to a
[41:04] not if they don't manage, because that would be negative publicity. Right,
[41:10] So their focus is going to remain on ensuring that they have a consensus document.
[41:15] Right now. I think they're confident that by September they will have a
[41:21] consensus document and it will not be ministerial, it'll be leadership level. Yeah,
[41:27] okay, I mean now, that was actually a very interesting insight to
[41:32] my understanding of this particular angle, which also zooms out to a broaden thing
[41:37] that we talked about. So I hope the listeners stayed till the very end
[41:43] if you did let us know how the episode was. So the number that
[41:47] you can reach out to us is eight five, double eight nine, double
[41:51] six, double line six, and the email address is pots at the rate
[41:55] in the Today dot com. So thank you, geta thank you so much.
[41:59] And if that you were in the studio, I just feel so passionate
[42:02] when you're here. You know, I can get to I try very hard.
[42:06] I try very hard to be in the studio, but every now and
[42:08] again it is really difficult, but thank you listeners for listening in allowing us
[42:15] to remain at least one of the top ten Yes podcasts, and that really
[42:22] really counts for a lot, so thank you, thank you,

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