# ASEAN 2023: Will Ethnic Conflict In Manipur Affect India's 'Look-East' Diplomacy For Southeast Asia? | Geeta's World, Ep 53

An episode of [Geeta's World](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1635741757), 18 Jul 2023, 57 min.

Audio: https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/56138783/18_jul_23_gw_ep_53_mix_18_july_128.mp3

Last week witnessed a momentous occasion in Jakarta, Indonesia, as top diplomats from across the globe gathered for the 56th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) foreign ministers meeting. This high-level meeting centered on addressing pressing security concerns in the Asia-Pacific region. Distinguished foreign ministers from influential nations such as India, China, the United States, South Korea, Australia, and even North Korea participated in the discussions. The core focus of the talks revolved around several critical issues affecting the region. Among them were North Korea's ballistic missile launches in the South China Sea, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the exacerbating food and energy crises, and the complex situation in Myanmar. It is important to understand that ASEAN is a significant regional grouping aimed at fostering economic and security cooperation among its ten member countries: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Together, these nations boast a combined GDP of 3.2 trillion dollars and are home to 662 million people. Despite its economic and demographic clout, ASEAN's effectiveness has faced scrutiny over the years, prompting questions about its credibility as a unified bloc. The recent meetings in Jakarta came amidst growing doubts about the grouping's ability to effectively address challenges, particularly the crisis in Myanmar. In this episode, our host Anna Priyadarshini and foreign affairs editor at India Today, TV Today Network Geeta Mohan delve into the relevance of ASEAN on the global stage today, exploring why its credibility has come under question. Listen in! Produced by Anna Priyadarshini Sound Mix by Kapil Dev Singh

## Transcript

[0:00] This is in Ya Today podcasts. The fifty sixth Asian Foreign Ministers meeting in
[0:07] Jakarta, Indonesia came amidst growing doubts about the grouping's ability to effectively address challenges,
[0:14] particularly the crisis in Myanmar. But why is there a lack of consensus
[0:19] in effectively addressing the violence in the nation Because there are certain countries who are
[0:24] influenced by Beijing. There are certain others that are now in rooms by Bejing.
[0:28] So you have varying voices within the grouping. And how can the South
[0:34] China See dispute be adequately discussed when Asian includes countries that are involved in China's
[0:40] Belt and Wrote initiative and others that are closer to the US. How does
[0:45] that work? China is in every room and South China See comes up in
[0:51] every single multi laty aora and China, with the help and support of certain
[0:57] allies, manages to circa convent that entire issue. Hello, I'm anna PREDESSIONI
[1:04] with India to Day TV's Foreign affairs editor Geita Mohan, where with Githa's astute
[1:11] and incisive crasp of world affairs, we delve into all that is urgent and
[1:15] pressing in world politics and comprehend how these developments in other countries could shape India's
[1:22] global ambitions of being a Vishwa Guru. Let's unravel Githa's hold. Hello and
[1:30] welcome. This is the fifty third episode of Githa's World and Geeta is joining
[1:36] me this time. Also it's happlaying around so hi, Gita, how are
[1:40] you? How very busy? A lot of incoming visits, a lot of
[1:45] outgoing visits. We had Prime Minister Mody in France, so hectic, and
[1:52] after that the Multiven Foreign Minister here, and then we've had a controversial story
[1:57] about a Pakistani woman in a they are found in greater and noy than less.
[2:01] So yeah, it's true. I mean, I was just love stories.
[2:06] I was just yeah, I was just watching having one video before coming
[2:12] to the studio, and it was showing how reporters out there they assembled outside
[2:16] her house, their house, such an ant sema heathers and they're fighting for
[2:21] her, you know, bites like the reporters are this like, and people
[2:24] around, I mean, the residents over there are saying that Agela, They
[2:29] like, we just want one glimpse of her because this is Pakistani baho.
[2:34] So it's quite interesting, I mean, but yeah, I mean certain developments
[2:38] have taken place, so that is something really happening in India particularly, but
[2:45] in terms of certain very pertinent geopolitical developments, like you said the France visit
[2:50] by pmmody. But apart from that, this week, this episode will be
[2:54] focusing on something that happened in Jakarta, which is in Indonesia. This was
[3:00] when top diplomats from across the globe they gathered for the fifty sixth Arcian Foreign
[3:07] Ministers Meeting. And this meeting was crucial why because it's centered on addressing pressing
[3:15] security concerns in the Asia Pacific region. So distinguished foreign ministers from influential nations
[3:23] such as India, China, the US, South Korea, Australia and even
[3:28] North Korea they participated in their discussions. Now, the core focus of this
[3:34] of the talks revolved around several critical issues such as North Korea's ballistic missile launches
[3:40] in the South China see then of course the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, then
[3:46] the food energy crisis owing to the war, and of course which is very
[3:51] important and we'll be dealing in this particular episode, which is the complex situation
[3:55] the crisis in Myanmar. So to give just the background as to what ARSIAN
[4:00] is exactly, It's a significant regional grouping which is aimed at fostering economic and
[4:09] security cooperation among its ten member countries, which includes manmar the Philippines, Singapore,
[4:15] Thailand and several others. And together these nations boast a combined GDP of
[4:23] three point two trillion dollars and their home to six sixty two million people.
[4:29] Now, despite its economic and demographic cloud our, Sian's effectiveness has sort of
[4:35] faced scrutiny over the years, prompting questions about its credibility as a unified block.
[4:43] So these the recent meetings in Jakarta, this came amidst you know,
[4:47] these growing doubts about the grouping's ability to effectively address challenges, particularly the crisis
[4:55] in man Maar. So in this episode, Gaeta and I will be basing
[4:59] our discussion around these issues, the credibility, Where the relevance of ASCIA on
[5:03] the global stage stands today and why is credibilities being questioned? And what exactly
[5:10] is the bloc's most significant challenge and the importance that it holds for India and
[5:15] the international community. So geta you know, let's start by addressing the very
[5:21] pertinent, the crucial aspect here, because that's what is in the focus.
[5:28] You know. I remember we were discussing Mayanmar's military and it's intention to hold
[5:36] fair and free elections later this year, and I remember, you know,
[5:42] we expressed our reservations about the possibility of these elections being generally free and fair
[5:47] due to Mayanma's troubled in violent history. And for our listeners, if you
[5:53] want to know a bit more on Mayanmar's history, you can go back to
[5:58] revisit our our episode on Mayanmar. But I remember, you know, the
[6:02] question we raised whether these elections in any form would have a decisive impact on
[6:08] the nation's troubled past. And the crisis in Mayanmar continues to persist and our
[6:13] discussions. Also, Asian also was brought into the conversation because last year during
[6:19] the RSNS Summit, which was chaired by Cambodia, at that point, the
[6:24] Mayanmar crisis had dominated the talks and it was one of those times when junta
[6:30] leader Mean oong yang chose not to attend the summit, the Arsent Summit last
[6:38] year. Yeah, So during that same time, Cambodia's Prime Minister n Sen
[6:43] He visited Manmar, drawing attention and raising eyebrows, and it was in fact
[6:46] the first visit by a foreign leader since the military seized power, and critics
[6:53] both inside and outside Maynma they accused Combodia of legitimizing the cool leaders and their
[6:59] brutal crackdown, and Cambodia, on the other hand, defended its actions,
[7:02] saying that it was just attempting to advocate for a return to peace in Mayanmar.
[7:08] But I remember asking and we could probably discuss it a little further in
[7:13] this episode. That experts also believe that you know, the rift between the
[7:17] ARSON and Mayanma's democracy movement is widening, because this is evident from the statements
[7:26] made by senior Southeast Asian officials, which have shown a lack of understanding of
[7:31] the country's conflict dynamics, and this raises questions about the efficacy of Arsian's approach
[7:38] in dealing with the question. So I want to understand from you that you
[7:42] know this, whether the Arcion summits have managed to yield any tangible results regarding
[7:48] the recording violence in Manmar, and if not then why, Well, to
[7:54] begin with, China plays a very crucial role in this and the fact that
[7:58] Nianmar has China's backing. But let me begin with China itself. Anna,
[8:03] it was interesting and there are wide reports now of the Chinese Foreign Minister not
[8:09] having seen in public for a very long time since, in fact June twenty
[8:13] five, and it's July eighteenth today, so since June twenty five when he
[8:18] last met the leaders of Russia and some other countries in Beijing. After that,
[8:28] he's not been seen in public at all. So that actually is raising.
[8:31] Yes, Russia, a Sri Lanka and Vietnam in Beijing, it has
[8:35] been raising. There are speculations right about what has happened to him. The
[8:41] official word is that he is not seen because of health reasons. But that's
[8:46] why we've had the form of Foreign Minister of China and a very very senior
[8:52] person in the CPC, Wong Yi, who attended the Arsian Foreign Ministers meeting,
[8:56] and in fact Anna Bongi actually met Lincoln and lab Rock who were there
[9:05] for the East Asia Foreign Ministers need separately, and that really goes to show
[9:09] the influence that China also has over certain countries and how there has been a
[9:16] shift in the torn tenure of the US and how they want to engage to
[9:22] China. But in the RCON format as well, the fact that still the
[9:26] time there is support from Yanmar coming in from Beijing. There is very little,
[9:31] a precious little that the other countries can really do. We do know
[9:35] that there have been very strong statements that have come with regards to Myanmar,
[9:39] whether if it is the Chair where the Chair has said that you know this,
[9:46] the situation in Yanmar is untenable and that there needs to be a solution
[9:52] to this entire crisis. And well, in fact, if you look at
[9:56] the Joint Community by the RCON grouping, they have talked about the fact that
[10:01] it has been a prolonged civil warlike situation within Yanmar and it is absolutely untenable.
[10:07] That they are united in their position on the five point Consensus, the
[10:13] main reference of which is run. They strongly condemned the continued acts of violence,
[10:18] including air strikes and artimuary shaling. They've also spoken about the displaced persons
[10:26] and how they should be repatriated to their country. About one point one million
[10:30] internally displaced persons refugee crisis, you know, in the region and particularly in
[10:37] the neighborhood. The chair also appreciated efforts of intensifying engagement. But if you'll
[10:43] look at the larger picture over here, you're right in saying that this organization
[10:48] has not been able to wield enough influence over Myanmar to stop the violence.
[10:54] But in the current scenario, Anna, tell me one multilateral body that has
[11:00] managed to wield any kind of influence in any of the conflict situations, be
[11:05] the South China, see Taiwan Straits, Russia, Ukraine War, you name
[11:09] it. Everybody has been talking about bringing about peace, but nobody has really
[11:15] been able to manage bringing that piece, you know, to the four But
[11:20] like like we have but discussing it's over two years, two and a half
[11:24] years, to be precise. And yes, the thorny issue of Myanmar's continued
[11:30] ostracization was discussed, which means that most of the leaders were also talking about
[11:35] how you cannot bring about a resolution in Myanmar without engaging the junta. Now
[11:43] that certainly is not acceptable to various others. Now with the Asian also takes
[11:46] place the East Asia Forum, which is the East Asia Foreign ministers meet.
[11:52] Like the East Asia Summit, and where you see Russia, America, China
[11:58] also present in the room, and will you have these biggest presents in the
[12:03] room. You realize that there are only that much that they can do in
[12:07] bringing about peace. Mayanmar is an important country for the region and for regional
[12:13] stability, but it also derives a lot of strength from the support it gets
[12:18] from China. And with the support, we've not seen any any let up
[12:26] on the fierce you know, cracked down on for democracy opponents in Yanmar.
[12:33] We've not seen any forward movement on releasing the political prisoners, including a song
[12:41] SUCHI. So while the five point consensus was agreed upon two years ago,
[12:46] which also includes ending hostilities, there has been no forward movement on that front.
[12:52] In fact, if anything, despite the call to boycott Mayan, mars
[12:58] On and so forth, and the General will not turn up last time for
[13:01] the summit, the fact is that the elections that were promised, the elections
[13:09] that were promised have not taken place. Now. In all this, there
[13:13] has been an effort and some countries like Thailand, which called its own meeting
[13:20] to discuss re engaging with the generals again, a move that was that was
[13:26] highly criticized by the others in Jakarta, but there are certain countries who are
[13:33] actually looking at and thinking that there can be no forward point, no peace,
[13:39] no restoration of normal semanmar unless and until the world, particularly the Arecian
[13:46] region, they engage the junta. So while they would want to ostracize the
[13:52] junta and isolate the junta to show that yes, you're under sanctions and you
[13:58] need to get your how in order bring about democracy. Um, there is
[14:03] no other way but to engage them at this moment. So you know,
[14:07] while we have rights troops criticizing and various other countries saying that that this is
[14:16] not acceptable, the atrocities continue and he is absolutely so the generally generally as
[14:26] absolutely unrelenting. And in all this, we also have a side story happening
[14:33] as to where is the Chinese foreign minister and all this. Yeah, and
[14:37] we'll come to that. But interesting that you said that. You know,
[14:41] uh, we talk about peace and restoring peace and everything, but what exactly
[14:45] what grouping or body has actually delivered on that promise on on brokering that But
[14:52] questions have would have to be asked us. So that's why we are discussing
[14:56] this and but in this particular case, this this are and meeting as five
[15:01] ministers meeting, this comes at a time when doubts mount over the credibility and
[15:07] unity of the block. And now it's also said that despite Asian, like
[15:11] you mentioned that, despite Asian having barred Maanmar's junta leaders from attending these high
[15:18] level meetings like the one in Jakarta, but as the blocks shared this year,
[15:24] which is Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia has been intensely engaging the junta and
[15:30] opposite groups behind the scenes. And last year also when Kamoda was sharing this
[15:35] event, you know, we mentioned we that it's it's Prime Minister Camodia was
[15:41] visiting Myanmar and saying that in its defense that you know, we are attempting
[15:46] to advocate for a return to peace in Myanmar. When behind the scenes all
[15:52] these things are happening, Then how can you ensure credibility towards such a block,
[15:56] Then that you are not willing to address or discuss things like this,
[16:02] the crisis such as this you know on the table, but you're willing to
[16:07] engage these hometime opposite groups behind the scenes, then like how do you perceive
[16:11] this in well, like I said in Myanmar, as was the case in
[16:15] the past, there is no option anna because still the time they have the
[16:19] support of China, they will continue to survive. If they did not have
[16:23] if there was consensus in not just Asian but the acion Plas and East Asia.
[16:30] There, if there was a consensus, then Myanmar does not have the
[16:33] very thought to survive on its own. It does not have the standing,
[16:38] It does not have the resources to stand on its own. So where do
[16:44] where are the resources coming from from China? And whatever you say, China
[16:48] is not going to leave a strategic hold over Myanmar just because of all democracy
[16:56] as we all know, China is no proponent or you know, uh does
[17:03] not hold hold the whole democracy per se as is perceived by the rest of
[17:08] the world in very high regard. Like we know that we have started saying
[17:14] that China is its o inform of democracy, but then that is the kind
[17:18] of democracy that Myanmar also has. Where they have promised their elections, that
[17:23] the elections have not been held. The junta is quite insecure about on San
[17:29] Succhi sweeping and that they're the party backed by the junta would have no numbers
[17:34] and influence in parliament and that certainly was a real scare. Is the reason
[17:38] why she was charged with crimes that are considered anti national some amounting to treason
[17:48] or against national security. Uh, and these are serious charges against Onsan Succi
[17:56] haven't said that the entire grouping can come together in how they want to engage
[18:02] Bianmar and boycott, but you're not seeing that. Also because there are certain
[18:07] countries who are influenced by Beijing, there are certain others that are not influenced
[18:12] by Beijing. So you have varying voices within the Asian grouping. If you
[18:18] look at statements that have been made by various countries, you realize that there
[18:23] is a huge difference in how they're looking at how Asian is is engaging Mayanmar
[18:30] and how they are how they are trying to meet with that challenge of handling
[18:37] the crisis within Maanmar. And foreign ministers of all these keys, you know,
[18:44] member states have stayed rather away, but we've seen island laos also attending
[18:52] some countries, you know, sending their junior representation in into Myanmar, so
[18:57] they are engaging Nanmar. But there are only a few countries within the RCON.
[19:03] But that's certainly even if there are few, that certainly breaks the consensus.
[19:07] So there is no consensus on how to handle Nanmar. There are certain
[19:14] members who would say include entire Thailand, where they've they've been um discussingly engaging
[19:19] with the generals, and they have been openly proposing it now within the RCON
[19:26] to initiate a behind the scenes peace process with key stakeholders. But that certainly
[19:32] will take that certainly will take consensus. It requires consensus to even build on
[19:37] that. Although we see that the joint statement clearly spells out how and what
[19:41] does the rcions grouping think of the developments in Nanmar, and they have a
[19:48] united position on the five point Consensus, but the and Thailand has been floating
[19:53] it over and over again that that it should be in line with the five
[19:57] PC and in co nation with the Chair of Oursia. But the fact is
[20:02] that at the end of the day, there is no consensus. They all
[20:04] want to deal with Yanmar how they feel best serves their own country interests,
[20:11] and everybody has now started understanding this idea of soball strategic autonomy, where they
[20:18] say, well, it might be good for the block and for the region,
[20:21] but it might not be great for us in the long haul. So
[20:25] right now, I'm good with engaging the junta rather ostracizing or isolating the junta.
[20:30] And so till the time that's happening, we will not see real pressure
[20:36] on Yanmar. The real pressure comes when the sanctions are untenable, They're unbearable.
[20:41] I'm sorry, but that Yanmark can't hold onto its current position and survive
[20:48] with those sanctions. That certainly does not happened because there's health coming for beaching
[20:52] and till the time that support continues, it seems that Yanma is going to
[20:56] do what it wants to do in its own time. I'm in pace,
[21:00] yeah, Geeta, But you know, I just want to focus a little
[21:03] bit on its history as in you know, when while I was reading up
[21:10] on it, I did not know about this, but the evolution of this
[21:14] grouping. It began in nineteen sixty seven, and there the mission was to
[21:19] combat communism, but it has, you know, now transformed over the years
[21:25] to focus on fostering trade, security and bilateral relations among its member countries.
[21:33] And to be a bit more specific. On eighth of August, in fact,
[21:37] there were five leaders from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and
[21:44] Thailand. They gathered together in Bangkok and they addressed and resolved disputes among their
[21:52] nations, which ultimately led to, you know, as the signing of a
[21:56] significant document. So I was kind of confus used that, you know,
[22:00] the block that you know originated with an idea of brokering disputes and advocating for
[22:10] a peace. What exactly like went over the years that its relevance is now
[22:15] being questioned? What exactly went wrong? Then? See all multi laterals and
[22:21] I you see, do not have the tea to really bring about change effect,
[22:27] change impact to the extent that countries will forget their own interests and work
[22:34] for the region. That does not happened. Even in the highest diplomatic body
[22:40] that you can think of, which is the United Nations, they're all in
[22:45] some way toothless. Arcian came together to resolve disputes within to look at bringing
[22:53] about a more peaceful country, and and in time we've seen it in strength
[23:00] also. But the importance of Arcian is not in their pure sense of resolving
[23:10] conflicts, but their own charter really spells out what they're willing to have.
[23:15] Political commitment at the top level, enhanced commitments. There is a legal framework,
[23:22] but none of them really enough for any country to overlook what they want
[23:27] for their own country. So the Arcian as is, the world is also
[23:33] a divided house to a certain extent, because there are certain countries who are
[23:37] actually taking on China to the extent that given the size of the countries,
[23:42] way way smaller than China, but yet having the strength to question and to
[23:48] show China that they are not going to back down. But there are others
[23:52] who understand that for everything, they actually need support of China less they get
[24:00] sanctioned. Thailand is an example because Thailand also has generals that have been in
[24:06] control of the country forever. In fact, the latest you know politician who
[24:14] actually thought he could become prime minister lost not because he did not win the
[24:18] popular support. He did win the popular support, but he did not have
[24:23] the numbers to match in parliament, and so he is not the prime minister.
[24:29] And for countries that are our military controlled, the most natural partner for
[24:34] them is China, and which is why we see Nanmar Thailand. Countries like
[24:42] the ones with the military dispensation or an autocratic or a thal Terrance beat the
[24:49] Russia. China alliance. Now it seems like they are now sticking together to
[24:55] justify their own governments back home. They have the issues, they have their
[25:00] own problems, and China does come out in support. So is our Siana
[25:04] divided house. Yes, it is not unified completely although on many accounts,
[25:11] on many areas we see a lot of a lot of things where our Sian
[25:15] works together. But when it comes to particular countries, Anna, no matter
[25:21] where the alliance stands, where the block stands, every country has a take
[25:26] on that country, on the other country's position and the developments there because they
[25:32] have their own one bilateral ties, regional ties, and then their ties with
[25:37] that country's allies. In this case with Myan Mars allies that is China,
[25:42] you know, an important ally at that so um you see the statement that
[25:48] was put out by by Singapore, a very strong statement on our cr and
[25:56] how what is happening is unacceptable that these strikes and civilian casualties, destruction of
[26:04] public facilities and other tracks of violence continue to occur, and that Singapore,
[26:11] like many countries, called for succession of violence and swift implementation. But these
[26:15] are separate statements from the ACION document. If you read the Acon document.
[26:22] You realize that there's only that much that ASCAN can really do to bring about
[26:30] peace. While they have con then they have reappirmed their united position on the
[26:34] Consensus document, the five Point Consensus. They've spoken about internally displaced and how
[26:41] they need to be repatriated the international community, calling for additional support from the
[26:45] international community. But there is no sentence in that Joint communitive which says that,
[26:52] well, you know, this needs to stop and that Myanma would have
[26:56] a price to pay. You're not looking at a statement where they're saying grandmar
[27:00] would have a price to pay. If you look at the other paragraphs in
[27:04] South China see suppose you know a strong statement coming in on the situation in
[27:10] the South China see concerns expressed by some ministers on the land reformations, activities
[27:17] series insitence in the area. Now what happens when you say some ministers.
[27:19] When you're saying some ministers, you're actually selling out that there is no consent,
[27:23] that this is a lot of concerns document. You're saying some of the
[27:26] Member States ministers have concerns or land reformations, which is China claving lands.
[27:33] And then reaccorm the need to pursue peaceful resolutions, which includes recognizing the principles
[27:41] of national law and UN claws under in the nineteen eighty two UN class which
[27:47] is the United Nations Government on Laws of Disease right so or convention a law
[27:52] of Disease. And then they also talk about how the region will benefit if
[27:57] the South China see will see if peace, stability and prosperity. Again,
[28:03] no consensus when you say some ministers are there's no consensus. They also emphasized
[28:07] to maintain and promote an environment conducive to the COOC negotiations and thus welcome practical
[28:12] measures that could reduce tensions. No consis you're looking at all the Look at
[28:18] the maritime situation in the region. We recognize the need to maintain further strengthened
[28:22] stability in the maritime sphere Ali region and underlie the importance of strengthening maritime corporation.
[28:29] Look at the Korean Peninsula, continued peaceful dialogue among all concerned parties in
[28:33] order to realize lasting peace and stability, and the denuclearized Korean Peninsula. We
[28:38] reiterate our commitment to the full implementation of the relevant UNSC resolutions, diplomatic efforts,
[28:45] including the creation of a conducive environment for peaceful dialogue among all concerned parties,
[28:48] should remain a priority. Again, you're not pushing anybody to bring about
[28:55] peace when we're looking at longer, older problems, still sitting with them,
[29:02] only reaffirming the stand to really bring about peace, to peaceful dialogue amongst concerned
[29:10] parties, then how can you expect them to really have a move on developments
[29:15] in Myanmar? Um, it's it's it's a it's a it's a document which
[29:18] spells out where our Sian stands, which is certainly not on the side of
[29:23] ensuring peace in Myanmar, but on the side of ensuring that their interests are
[29:30] not not hampered whilst they endeavored to bring about peace in Yana. Yeah.
[29:37] No, that's a valid point. And when you say there's no consensus,
[29:41] but it's uh. And on that note, I would actually recount what Indonesian
[29:47] President Joko Vidodo had remarked when he said that about basically saying that not wanting
[29:53] Usian to become a proxy for other nations, and in fact he said this
[30:00] previously also when Comboda was chairing the meeting. He actually raised concerns about the
[30:07] growing idea of a new Cold war between the US and China and emphasize that,
[30:11] you know, Ourcian should not be influenced or used as a proxy by
[30:17] any external powers. Because like you mentioned that this summit had attendees from China,
[30:22] Australia, Russia, US, India. I was kind of, like
[30:26] you mentioned South China Sea, I was kind of you know, trying to
[30:30] trying to understand that, you know, during these summits and Widoo's remarks,
[30:34] also during these summits, these powerful countries they if I'm not wrong, they
[30:40] attend with the motive to assert their influence over the region and the like.
[30:47] For instance, you know US Secretary Anthony B. Lincoln, he took a
[30:51] wailed jibe at China and pledged unity with Southeast Asian nations against coercion, but
[30:59] also he vocated for freedom of navigation in the South and East China seas and
[31:04] maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. But China's point, Minister Wong
[31:11] He he was also present at the summit. So I what I could not
[31:17] understand Gita here is you talked about consensus. But even like discussing such such
[31:22] issues like how can the South China SEE dispute be adequately discussed? You know,
[31:30] because as a matter of fact, Asia includes countries that are involved in
[31:36] China's Belt and Road initiative, and there are certain countries that are closer to
[31:40] the US. So how do you even talk about countering China's military might in
[31:45] front of China itself? Like how does it work? How does this dichotomy,
[31:49] this rift is even addressed? Then it's a it's again again a very
[31:53] interesting question, Anna, But again let's go back to North G twenty seven.
[32:00] Of course China is not a part but G seven, G twentieth First,
[32:05] Channa is apart United Nations, United Nations Security Council, China is in
[32:10] every room, and South China See comes up in every single multi laptrypora.
[32:17] There isn't a single place where they have not mentioned the aggression. And China,
[32:22] with the help and support of certain allies, manages to circumvent the entire
[32:29] issue, which has been the case over here as well. When you say
[32:34] some members ways they issue grand land reclamations, you mean that others there were
[32:37] some others who did not agree. Now what happened over here at the RC
[32:43] on Foreign Ministers meeting, there wasn't me. There was the members on the
[32:47] spot the meet for an early conclusion of code of conduct for South China see.
[32:53] This has been an issue, or as they call it, there has
[33:00] been an entire deliberation and conversation over having a code of conduct in the South
[33:06] China see because China keeps claiming little islands and the area around the maritime area
[33:15] around that island is the said countries. Whichever country owns that island, and
[33:21] when China starts joining the dots of all these salinations, it almost seems like
[33:28] the world of South China see would remember become inaccessible to the rest of the
[33:30] world. And that's the reason why they keep claiming these islands, so that
[33:36] they can claim the waters around the islands and you know, secure that entire
[33:40] area, which is why they have a problem with Deatnam, with Philippines,
[33:45] with Japan and the Santafoo Islands, so on and so forth. So there
[33:51] was a need for an early conclusion of the code of conduct, but only
[33:54] some members raised the issue of land reclamations and the incidents in the area safety
[34:01] of people with the kind of Chinese oppression. We see the Chinese name of
[34:06] boats coming very close to the boat that are they're traversing that area, so
[34:13] on and so forth, undermining any country's right to travel in those waters,
[34:20] the maritime rights of most of the countries. While they emphasize the need to
[34:24] enhance you know, uh, this confidence to exercise self restrict the code of
[34:32] conduct for the South China see did not materialize. Now if you're not going
[34:37] to have that, and China managed to ensure that that does not come about
[34:42] it now, if you manage that, then there is no forward movement on
[34:46] how South China sees concerns would be addressed for other member states or for the
[34:52] world as a pole. There was, according to reports, three important issues.
[34:57] One is to pursue peaceful residue Osian under nineteen eighty two on clause.
[35:02] Then the importance of non militarization or demilitarizing the entire era. Where you see
[35:08] Chinese naval boats coming to protect the area, it becomes a problem. So
[35:14] they need there is a need to demilitarize an era, which is a huge
[35:17] trading route. Many countries use that to trade. So in a trading route,
[35:27] the need to exercise self restraint and demilitarize the area like not have military
[35:34] you know, ships, navies in those waters. This was also mentioned in
[35:39] two thousand and two. Now also then again the finally finally that you know,
[35:45] conclusion of the Code of Conduct, which also did not happen. So
[35:50] we are looking at it in an era in the South China, see where
[35:53] if you look at the joint statement again, I refer back to the Joint
[35:57] Statement only because it makes for an interesting reread as to where where the country
[36:02] stand on various aspects. So if you just go back to the South China,
[36:09] see document in the communicate, look at look at how it's worded.
[36:15] They're saying during which concerns were expressed by some ministers. Right then they again
[36:22] go ahead and I'm reiterating. I know I just said it. But the
[36:25] fact that this is a problem. So the emphasis on the importance of non
[36:30] militarization and self restraint in the conduct of all activities by claimants and all other
[36:36] states, including those mentioned in two thousand and two Declaration of the Conduct of
[36:40] Parties in the South China see that could further complicate the situation and escalate tensions
[36:45] in the South China. See. So you're seeing where the document is saying
[36:50] in the Acon communicate is clear that there is no consensus. They're welcomed the
[36:57] progress achieved so far in the ongoing negotiations on the Code of Conduct in the
[37:01] South China see, including the completion of the second reading of the single draft
[37:06] of the CIOC, and encouraged positive momentum. So it is a long way
[37:10] before a code of conduct can come about. They are they are appreciating the
[37:15] progress achieved so far in the ongoing negotiations and now we're a long way off.
[37:21] This is this is going to take a long time. And it's not
[37:24] only about taking a long time. It's never going to happen. You pull
[37:29] out documents from the past up till now, till the time the power structure
[37:35] changes, the power dynamics in the region changes, that there is certainly an
[37:39] alternative to China. There is going to be no serious conversation that to take
[37:46] on China. Why do I say that? Not so long ago we were
[37:51] discussing a particular topic and the Arcanum the r set came about Regional Comprehensive Partnership
[38:00] with ASCIAN. It was supposed to be a very important economic architecture where India
[38:07] could have played a very very important role. But lo and behold, we
[38:10] could not negotiate terms to become a part of it. But the terms are
[38:15] so stringent and indfl to prison against our PRIs so be it, and that's
[38:20] why we're not a part of it. But then who is taking the leader
[38:22] on Ocian our set? China? Yeah, so when China has become such
[38:29] an important part of their economic wheel, how do you remove that and ensure
[38:35] that everybody finds consensus. That's not going to happen any any situation you take
[38:40] today. Those are areas of concern have a lot to do with China.
[38:45] Now we begin with what let's begin with the concerns in the document itself.
[38:52] One, it begins with the East Asia Summit. Of course, you know
[38:55] a place where we will see India and the likes of India, Russia,
[39:01] America also participate. And there they've talked about strategic values, so and so
[39:07] forth, and they and China lets it be because these are important countries and
[39:10] participating countries are important. China cannot be a spoiler on this front. Then
[39:17] we have the Acian Regional Forum, the Asian Regional Forum. Again, you
[39:22] know, the document speaks about a lot of things, but they look forward
[39:24] to revitalizing RF so that it continues to function as the leading regional security forum
[39:31] in the Asia Pacific region. Remember ASCIAN does not say Indo Pacific. It
[39:37] still calls it Asia Pacific. There is no Indo Pacific document. Asia Pacific
[39:43] is what this region needs to be called till the West started, or the
[39:47] West and including India in the Shangrila Dialogue announced the whole Indo Pacific architecture.
[39:55] But China still says Asia Pacific. Asian countries and the Asian documents still says
[40:00] Asia Pacific and not being dissipate. That's again a very significant statement that shows
[40:06] how China still is a huge influence in the Rcian region. Then comes the
[40:10] South China Sea, and we've already discussed the South China see and you've seen
[40:14] that. You know, by mentioning some ministers, you're actually saying you're diluting
[40:17] the entire issue. Maritime situation is a small three line paragraph, means nothing.
[40:24] It's so manly talking about exploring new initiatives to the descent. Korean peninsula
[40:30] has to do with North Korea and North Korea's ballistic missile launches and prestensions in
[40:35] the Korean Peninsula threatened space and stability. But has any country done anything to
[40:40] reign in North Korea. There are sanctions against North Korea, most of them
[40:45] don't do business with North Korea, but not to the extent that it will
[40:49] hurt China and you know, Chinese interests. That's again a China, China
[40:54] friend. Then you have me and Margin a China friend. Then you have
[40:58] situation in Ukraine that has to do with Russia, a China friend. Then
[41:02] you have the situation in Middle East where they talk about the Israel Palestine conflict.
[41:07] They are very critical of it because there ought to be and urge both
[41:13] sides to actively take positive steps to allow for negotiations and so on and so
[41:17] forth. And again you know, they also have supported the legitimate rights of
[41:22] the Palestinian people, which is a stand that India also takes, and an
[41:25] independent state of Palestine with the realization of the two state theory. The two
[41:30] state theory is something that India indorses, China, Russia, this is that
[41:34] part of the world that endorses the two state theory completely. So look at
[41:38] look at the issues and the concerns and look at the statements and the responses
[41:43] by our san there is going to be don't expect solutions from multilateral flora.
[41:47] They're being raised. To what extent can that hamper a country's growth? Is
[41:53] more important? Yes, Manmar is curtailed to a certain extent, but India
[41:59] does business with Nyanmar. India's engaged in Yanmar. So it's China. For
[42:04] India. It is important because China is there and because it's India's neighborhood,
[42:07] immediate neighborhood. So we cannot not we cannot not engage Banmar. We cannot
[42:14] not engage Russia in the Russia Ukraine War because Russia is a traditional old military
[42:20] friend, a defense partner. So no matter what the West seas or how
[42:23] the West seas, the East or eastern part of the world sees all these
[42:30] issues very differently, and that is quite visible in the documents that are presented,
[42:35] in the statements that are made. There are condemnations that come, but
[42:38] nothing more than that, and also no consensus in how to tackle the challenge.
[42:43] That's where our land stands today. Yeah, that was quite an exclamation,
[42:50] and you actually the fact that China is omnipresent and all this, all
[42:55] the group in all the groupings and all the you know, you can actually
[43:00] find certain countries which are amiable to China. Then that defeats the purpose.
[43:06] But then it also raises the question as to when the thirteenth East Asia Summit
[43:12] when you know, US Secretary was present, Russia's Fine Minister was present,
[43:16] India's finn Minister was also present, and as Shanker, he emphasized the importance
[43:22] of a free, open, inclusive and rules based Indo Pacific region and respecting
[43:28] you know, sovereignty and taoral integrity. That's what he said. So he
[43:32] in fact, he also highlighted that the Quad which includes India, the US,
[43:37] Japan and Australia, they will complement Asian and Asian led mechanisms, reaffirming
[43:43] that the India's India's commitment to Oursian centrality in the Indo Pacific. So,
[43:47] now when you put all these points forward, I want to understand that the
[43:52] efficacy of the Quad's assistance to Asian countries, like where does that stand?
[44:00] Because China is omnipresent, So this livide interest by cod in assisting US and
[44:06] countries. What is the underlying motivation, like and when you speak about all
[44:12] these issues that you know relate and pertain to China, you know, the
[44:16] effectively countering China's increasing military maneuvers in the region. How good is the code?
[44:23] Then in this grouping see a very important question Anna. But the thing
[44:30] is when you think about these questions, when you're looking at why is why
[44:37] is there so much pressure on OSCAN to not count to China or not be
[44:44] able to count China in the manner in which they would have wanted. And
[44:47] then you know there is the Quad coming in and there are countries that are
[44:51] wanting to engage the Quad countries. And then there's the stage here summit that
[44:55] happens where you have the Western countries participate and play a very important role.
[45:00] How is all this playing out for every country in the region now? In
[45:06] that my answer is a very simple two word term called strategic autonomy. Every
[45:12] country today is looking at their strategic autonomy. What suits my interests best?
[45:20] If that means I need to engage Oscian to this extent, yes, Ever
[45:24] also means I need to be a part of an extended quad. I will
[45:30] if it means I'm going to militarily engage a few countries to ensure that my
[45:35] interests is secure. Then so be it like we see Taiwan do, like
[45:38] we see Vietnam, do Philippines do if you and yet when it comes to
[45:45] trade, which is a very important component of any any of your strategic policy
[45:52] making. Now, trade is an influential you know card that every country uses.
[46:00] China has been using it for a very long time now because they are
[46:04] one of the largest trading partners of all these Southeast Asian countries, including any
[46:08] other country in Europe or the rest of the world. They've become the largest
[46:14] trading partners with most of the country, so they use that part too.
[46:17] But whatever any country is doing, they are looking at being the fact that
[46:24] they are part of the regional block, but not not a single country.
[46:29] It c is only part of one block. They've all expanded. They've moved
[46:34] to looking at our CR, then looking at an East Asia Regional for the
[46:38] Asian Asia Regional Forum that's the RF. Then they're looking at maybe an expanded
[46:45] military block which they want to be a part of. Then they're looking at
[46:49] bilaqual military partnerships within that very same region. France is not a part of
[46:53] the Quad. France will never be a part of the quar never say never.
[46:58] But there's not The thing that did not want to be a part of
[47:01] the quad is because they had their own stakes in the Indian Ocean and their
[47:07] stakes are higher, older and very different. These newcomers cannot come and form
[47:12] a block and say well, our in system are important than the others.
[47:15] And that's why France has bilateral military partnerships with various countries in the region.
[47:21] Uh and and you will see many countries talking about conversations of it's not just
[47:25] expanded QUAD, different forms of QUAD. This is not the only FUAD that
[47:30] India is a part of, or America as a part. There is another
[47:34] alliance called Office, which is again display the waters of the Indo Pacific.
[47:39] This region very clearly falls within that region within those waters. So and when
[47:47] you ask why is Indian not a part of Office and only a part of
[47:51] Quad? Why is Office and Military Alliance alliance and not Quad, is because
[47:57] India is uncomfortable being a part of a mill alliance to take on China where
[48:02] you already have issues at the border with China and China could create a lot
[48:07] of trouble for you. So we keep emphasizing that FOUD is not a military
[48:12] alliance, it's actually an economic alliance. What is a military alliance in the
[48:16] Pacific, it's the Office, it's Australia, the uk US coming together in
[48:21] the region. There stakes they're far away, but the stakes are high,
[48:25] but the stakes are higher for the countries within the region. Right, So
[48:29] they are looking at not just expanding but exploring the option. And every time
[48:34] that happens, you will see China threaten some of the smaller island nations.
[48:38] In fact, it's not just China. When the Solomon Islands had to deal
[48:42] with China, America threatened Solomon Islands saying that you know, we see you're
[48:46] doing military deals with China, and they had to actually come out putting out
[48:51] a statement saying that it is not a military alliance. There is no naval
[48:54] base that is being given to being given to China. But the fact that
[49:00] it should it should have to do with strategic autonomy. Right when America can
[49:06] say why is Russia, why can't Ukraine be a part of NATO and Russia
[49:09] attacks and then they say, oh, this is terrible. You know,
[49:14] these threats are wrong, even when they're not attack that they're threatening. Russia
[49:16] is threatening, then why is America's threatening Solomon Islands? Why why did Russia?
[49:22] Why why did America go ahead and almost was on the words of a
[49:27] world war with Cuba with Russians had their missiles. If it's about autonomy,
[49:30] every country should have the right to decide, even if it is in your
[49:35] backyard. But that's not the case. The different rules apply for different countries.
[49:40] Played well for superpowers in the back in the day. No longer is
[49:45] the case where they can say this and get away with it. Where India
[49:51] says, well, I have strategic autonomy through I don't want to align my
[49:57] interests with yours because they are not aligned in fact of anything. They don't
[50:00] serve my purpose. They're pounded to my purpose and my interests. Okay,
[50:05] guitar, just stuff like you explained it really well. But lastly, I
[50:08] just want to focus back home a bit. I was wondering that Asian you
[50:13] know, definitely aligns with India's Look East policy, But then like, is
[50:19] look East only for countries in Asian and not for its own northeastern states?
[50:25] Why do I say this? Because you know everybody is familiar that moneypur has
[50:30] been in the throes of a civil war type situation for months now, and
[50:35] our Prime Minister hasn't said a single word, you know, about the ethnic
[50:38] conflict that's happening there. And there's a sense there's a deep sense of distrust
[50:44] amongst the people there, people of money for the central and state governments right
[50:49] now, money put is crucial here because India's northeast is our gateway to the
[50:55] Asian countries. You know, Moneypu shares a border and deep culture ties with
[51:00] Pianmar. So if you can explain that, how does this kind of a
[51:05] domestic situation that, by the looks of it is, you know, is
[51:08] yet to be handled effectively affect India's foreign diplomacy, well, it is a
[51:15] very very important question anna the fact that what is happening in Moneipool does not
[51:20] reflect in parts that are actually quite connected to the Northeast. In India's Active
[51:25] East policy, the whole idea was to have a stable northeast connecting to the
[51:30] whole of Southeast Asia, with Myanmar being the gateway. We have an unstable
[51:36] Mayanmar. We have a Mayanmar from where we can have insurgents come into our
[51:42] bordering states of Monypool and so on and so forth, and we have now
[51:49] a civil war like situation in Manipool where the Southeast Asian countries, if they
[51:53] were that connected to India through northeast, would have cared. It would have
[52:00] come up. But if you look at the statements, Moneypoo has not come
[52:02] up. All conflicts have come up, Russia, Ukraine included, but Moneypoo
[52:07] did not come up. Moneypoo did not come up in the East Asia meetings
[52:12] as well. Yes, and we've not heard a word from the central government
[52:19] on moneypur which is not like the External Affairs ministers said that ethnic conflicts in
[52:25] Moneypool they are an internal issue of the country and they will not have an
[52:30] impact on India's Act East policy. This is the statement that door Jessen care
[52:35] made in Jakarta while he was there meeting with other leaders. And while he's
[52:40] calling it an internal issue, is actually true. Some of the some of
[52:45] the government representatives try to say that, you know, this is created by
[52:49] people, outsiders, sources, you know, mentioning how outsiders are involved,
[52:53] basically pointing to elements antiendia elements or insurgent groups u taking you know, taking
[53:02] or harboring in myanmark, but that is not the case. It's absolutely internal.
[53:07] It's an insider work of how true communities now have have been absolutely divided
[53:15] in the state. And yes it is a couse for concern. It should
[53:17] be a couse for concern for East Asia as well, because if they want
[53:21] to directly have a land root connectivity to India and through the Northeast, then
[53:28] many people would play a very critical and an important role. These might be
[53:31] nascent stages, but it still is important. But again, you know,
[53:35] let me end it with what President Jocobadoro said. He said Asian should not
[53:40] be become a POxy for other countries, and he was talking about the US
[53:45] China tensions, the South China see tensions, Rassia, Ukraine war, so
[53:52] on and so forth. But it also stands through a hole's true for for
[53:55] a crisis within India that this should not be a proxy for other countries,
[54:02] which is holding our Cian or the East Asia Summit hostage. Which is why
[54:07] in all probability matters that are not absolutely global in nature, Russia Ukraine has
[54:13] a huge global impact, but which is not actually global in nature, such
[54:16] as the money prove crisis did not come up, and when it did,
[54:21] doctor Jesshun could immediately said that it is an internal crisis. Having said that,
[54:25] for any East Asian country that is looking to India on trade and connectivity
[54:31] should be worried about what happens in the Northeast, what happens to the Northeast,
[54:37] not just in terms of a civil warlike situation, but also in terms
[54:39] of the social fabric of that area that leads to instability or stability you know
[54:45] thereof, depending on what the situation is on the ground. So yes,
[54:50] countries in the region should care, should be worried, but not to the
[54:54] extent that India would want interference, which is why doctor Jesshu there said it's
[54:59] an internal matter. Yeah, nicely, but geta I think it was a
[55:02] very informative and very very new aspects that I learned and I'm sure the listeners
[55:07] would have also learned. So if you did, let us know. The
[55:10] number is eight five, double eight nine, double six, double line six
[55:15] and the email ideas spots at the rate in the Today dot com and also
[55:19] a small request that if you're listening to us on probably any of the audio
[55:22] streaming platforms, do leave us a rating because rating helps us understand how we're
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[55:52] Comments are welcome. But if you can't, like Anna said, rate us,
[55:57] yes, so thanks, geta and a wonderful conversation. And I hope
[56:01] that every episode ends with this, hope. But let's see next time.
[56:08] And your party is also due, so I'm just like from the studio.
[56:13] Yes, yes, absolutely, this has been a hectic week. Actually the
[56:15] coming week is also hectic, so maybe the week after. Yeah, we
[56:20] shall surely share some nice pictures of our party together. Yeah, yes,
[56:28] for our for our listeners to see. Yes, and for that you'll have
[56:31] to follow us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram so that you don't miss the
[56:36] pictures. Yeah. So thank you. Bye, take care, take care.
[56:40] Yeah bye,

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