# Russia Wagner Mutiny: Has Putin Emerged Unscathed From Prigozhin Rebellion? | Geeta's World, Ep 50

An episode of [Geeta's World](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1635741757), 27 Jun 2023, 45 min.

Audio: https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/55277779/27_jun_23_geetas_workd_ep_50_mix_128.mp3

In a surprising development amidst the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, internal strife emerged between the Russian military and the Wagner mercenary group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.  So giving a brief as to what really ensued is that last week, Prigozhin openly accused Russia's military of attacking a Wagner camp, resulting in the deaths of a significant number of his men. He threatened retaliation and entered Russia's Rostov region, occupying key military installations in its capital, Rostov-on-Don.  And in response, President Putin addressed the nation, vowing to punish those involved in treason and armed rebellion, as they posed a deadly threat to the nation and jeopardized Russia's statehood.   After which, Prigozhin ordered his fighters, who had been advancing towards Moscow, to turn back and return to their bases to prevent bloodshed. He revealed that his forces had covered 200 km (124 miles) in the past 24 hours. In this episode, our host Anna Priyadarshini and foreign affairs editor at India Today, TV Today Network Geeta Mohan delve into the ongoing strife, examining the factors that have contributed to it. They explore the significance of Wagner Group, shedding light on its origins and operations, and also assess the potential impact of this internal strife on the war in Ukraine and whether it poses a threat to Putin's stronghold. Listen in! Produced by Anna Priyadarshini Sound Mix by Kapil Dev Singh

## Transcript

[0:00] This Is Today podcasts. Last week, Russia experienced a twenty four hour period
[0:08] of intense chaos caused by internal strife between the Russian military and the Wagner mercenary
[0:14] group led by yef Guinea Pregosion. While the matter stands resolved now, a
[0:18] lot is being said that Wagner's revolt demonstrates that Pregosion has succeeded in challenging and
[0:25] showing weakness of Vladimir Putin's script? Is it so? What was the weakness?
[0:30] It was about an insurrection that would have happened anywhere. Progosion was demanding
[0:35] the umster of Defense minister showing group. If Putin would have agreed to that,
[0:40] that would have been politically damaging for Putin. And just like Wagner,
[0:44] the proliferation of private armies in Russia and the rise of mercenary companies resembling the
[0:50] Wagner group is a growing trend. Now shouldn't Putin be wary of this rise?
[0:55] It is something that Puton has to look at, not in terms of
[0:58] whether they should be creating cult leaders. For Putin being very busy with a
[1:03] larger macro perspective of a war, it might have escaped his notice that his
[1:07] own people were rather unhappy and are rather unhappy with what's happening on the ground.
[1:14] Hello, I'm anna PREDESSIONI with India To Day TV's Foreign Affairs editor Geta
[1:19] Mohun, Where with Githa's astute and incisive trasp of world affairs, we delve
[1:23] into all that is urgent and pressing in world politics and comprehend how these developments
[1:30] in other countries could shape India's global ambitions of being a Vishwa Guru. Let's
[1:37] unravel Githa's hold. So well, we are back with another episode of Githa's
[1:44] World, and I'm really excited Geta because this is the fiftieth one, which
[1:48] means like we've been doing this for the past fifty weeks. Now, how's
[1:53] your experience been. I mean it has been really really nice. We should
[1:56] have actually done something special for the fiftieth but enjoyed every episode and the fact
[2:02] that we haven't missed a single week, have we? No, we haven't
[2:07] not yet, not yet. I mean that. Yeah, Like there have
[2:12] been days where it has been like really hectic considering I mean it's your schedule
[2:15] that you get to, you know, like cover international summits and events that
[2:22] happened all across the world. So somehow that kind of you know, limits
[2:28] us, But despite that, we have sailed through it. And even if
[2:31] it recorded for like twenty twenty five minutes, I mean that, I mean
[2:35] we tried that we could collate all the best and all the informative information in
[2:40] that particular episode, and we delivered. So yeah, yeah, so we
[2:46] tried our best, and and thanks to all the listeners who have stayed with
[2:50] us and because of whom we actually the kind of feedback that we got,
[2:53] which meant that, yes, we've been doing something good. They should require
[3:00] an applause. Yes they do, Yes they do. So thank you to
[3:05] all of them. And let us know what you feel of the fifty episodes
[3:09] that we've done so far. If you have listened to all them, that's
[3:13] amazing. But even if you listen to one of the episodes, just let
[3:16] us know. The number that you can reach out to us is eight five,
[3:21] eight nine, double six, double line six, and the email idea
[3:23] is spots at the rate in the to day dot com so Guita. Last
[3:27] week only we recorded the episode when we covered you were about to go to
[3:31] us to cover the Prime Minister modes visit to the state and then lot transpired.
[3:39] You want to say, like, how was your experience covering that anything
[3:43] special in any big takeaway that you personally would want to share. So the
[3:50] visit was the first eight visit by prime minister movie, so it was different
[3:55] but the same came but different the game, meaning everything about a Prime minister's
[4:01] visit was similar, but the magnitude, the scale in which events were being
[4:06] held was different. The access to White House, the kind of meetings we
[4:11] saw, the kind of event at the White House on the south lawns,
[4:16] not like it hasn't been done before when when Mohansen was there, they didn't
[4:20] have guests on the south lawns, but not at this scale. The music,
[4:25] the food, not at this scale. We've had vegetarian. Now there's
[4:29] a lot, you know, in terms of reporting, a lot of them
[4:30] said, oh, you know, vegetarian spread, but we've had vegetarian prime
[4:34] ministers who visited and the exact same care was you know, taken to even
[4:41] ensure that they have a lovely vegetarian meal. The only difference was that like
[4:46] this is year of the International Year of Millets, So millet was added to
[4:49] the to the menu. The welcome was very different and more grand, but
[4:57] in terms of substance that that's where it matters the most. There were a
[5:01] few areas where we've gone really ahead, which is the defense area, but
[5:06] there are two other areas where everybody was very has become very touchy. Human
[5:13] rights for instance, or Elan Mask for instance. I asked a question on
[5:17] Jack Dorsey and I was told asked the question, yeah, yeah, I
[5:21] did see that, yes, And which is silly because in a country like
[5:26] ours, getting an on the record response from Elan and what he said was
[5:30] more important than them coming at me for having asked a question for doing my
[5:36] job. Similarly, at the White House Press briefing, yeah, Sabrina Siddiki
[5:43] Wall Street journal journalist, Yeah yeah, yes, a journalist from there for
[5:46] an individual from the fraternity, asked a fairly valid question on what she thought
[5:54] were reports coming in from India, and she has the roots here, so
[5:59] instead of looking at it as a very valid, legit question, she was
[6:03] being trolled with and Pakistani connections were being attributed to her. She actually had
[6:10] to tweet out saying that this is the T shirt I wear when a cricket
[6:14] matches on and she was wearing an India T shirt and the I mean,
[6:18] that's how you have to establish your loyalty. It's terrible. It was just
[6:23] very cool because she did a good job. She was doing her job and
[6:29] uh and they came after her. They came at her with everything that they
[6:35] had and she had to actually put that out she sir Sir Sayama Khan's great
[6:40] granddaughter. So to connect her or show that her allegiance oh you know,
[6:47] she owes her allegiance somewhere else in itself was absolutely infuriating. And the White
[6:54] House in the US now have come out with statements saying that well, that
[6:58] comparrassment enlists is not in line with the with all that was laid out in
[7:05] and in terms of democracy and democratic values all through Prime Minister Modes visit last
[7:12] week. Yeah, so there has been a backlash in US as well.
[7:15] But yeah, there was a lot of deliverables and we've written about it about
[7:21] it, and those deliverables came through, whether if it's the G four one
[7:26] four or the Predator or three billion dollars deal um or for that matter,
[7:30] all the other areas where we'll be seeing a lot of cooperation. We beat
[7:35] the semiconductor sector, Micron seming to India, um Tesla says they might come
[7:43] to India Alonemark himself, So there's a lot of forward movement. This is
[7:47] a relationship that has been invested in very wisely, and we'll be going and
[7:54] and it's a it's it's a relationship that is going to go a long way.
[7:58] Yeah true, And you know we have done done an entire episode on
[8:01] that. I mean it was a prilem but yes, we did try to
[8:05] evaluate everybody we discussed came through. So if anybody's interested knowing, yes,
[8:11] what was the what were the deals that were signed? They can't go back
[8:15] to our last episode. Yeah, and I'll hyperling that episode to this one.
[8:20] But this episode, you know, I muss all this, I mean
[8:22] hype over the visit. There was something very substantial that happened last week,
[8:26] and this episode will try to understand what happened really and to give a brief
[8:33] surprising development that happened amidst the ongoing Russia Ukraine War and Russia Ukraine War.
[8:37] GETA has been covering extensively when it broke out, and now what has come
[8:43] to the picture is that an internal strife has emerged between the Russian military and
[8:48] the Wagner mercenary group, which is led by yev Guinny Pregosition. He is
[8:54] a close ally of Russian President Platimir put In, so giving a brief as
[8:58] to what really enshoot was that Pregoson he openly accused Russia's military of attacking a
[9:05] Wagner camp, which resulted in the deaths of a significant number of his men.
[9:09] He then threatened retaliation and entered Russia's Rostov region, occupying key military installations
[9:16] in its capital, Rostov Ordon and in response, Preston Putin he addressed the
[9:22] nation, vowing to punish those involved in treason and armed rebellion as they posed
[9:28] a deadly threat to the nation and jeopardized russia statehood. That's what he said,
[9:33] and after which Pregosition he ordered his fighters who had been advancing towards Moscow
[9:39] to turn back and retreat to their basis to prevent bloodshed. Tregoshan said that
[9:45] he revealed that you know that his forces had covered two hundred kilometers, which
[9:48] is one twenty four miles in the past twenty four hours. So in this
[9:52] episode, will Gita and I will try to delve into this ongoing strife,
[9:56] examining the factors that have contribute to it, and also explore the significance of
[10:03] Wagner Group. And many must not be knowing, so we'll try to understand
[10:07] what this group is, its origins, its operations, and also assess the
[10:11] potential impact of this internal strife on the war in Ukraine and whether it poses
[10:16] a threat to Putin's stronghold. So geta to begin with. You know the
[10:22] fact that Russia experienced what it's being called a twenty four hour period of intense
[10:28] chaos, which was caused by this internal strife and in fighting between within its
[10:33] military forces, and then after Belarus's intervention of mediating a piece accord between the
[10:39] Wagner Group and Vladimir Putin, reacting to which then he decided to retreat.
[10:45] I want to understand that has the situation now completely dissolved, Like has Vladimir
[10:50] Putin evaded the risk completely? If you could explain that in detail, then
[10:56] the risk is not absolutely gone, but yes, for now, Lukashenko,
[11:01] the Belarusian leader, played a middleman peacemaker and negotiated terms between the two sides.
[11:11] What we've given to understand is that according to certain reports there are that
[11:15] there are they're they're establishing a huge camp in the body areas of Belarus,
[11:20] and that the Wagner Group and Propulsion with his UH with his men would be
[11:28] moving to Belarus. So it has been negotiated that they will be leaving Russian
[11:33] territory, and that the president announced a pardon for him, that he will
[11:39] not be arrested and he should be leaving Russian territory. So for now it
[11:46] seems like there is there is some sort of assemblance of a of a deal
[11:52] that has been struck, but how long it's going to remain is something we'll
[11:58] have to wait and see. The Wagner Group has been working since twenty fourteen
[12:03] for President Putin, is a part of a very important foreign policy toolkit in
[12:09] how they use these mercenaries. No other so there are no mercenaries that are
[12:16] allowed in Russia. But the Wagner Group, they registered themselves as a private
[12:22] company. Progosion multi millionaire or a billionaire, so to say, a business
[12:28] tycoon started heading. Wagner took over from the earlier founding member, and now
[12:37] the entire fight began because he started questioning the Defense Minister the Defense Ministry talking
[12:45] about how there has been a difference in discrimination in the supplies to their forces
[12:50] versus supplies to the Wargner Group were fighting in eastern Ukraine and waging a very
[12:56] very tough battle against the Ukrainian force. So for now, it just seems
[13:01] like it is a temporary halt to a very dangerous situation. But unless there
[13:09] is a complete understanding as to where the Wagner Group stands and whether they're going
[13:13] to continue serving under President Putin, um, we we'll still have to see
[13:18] whether we'll have to see whether the situation is absolutely normal or not. So
[13:24] now it doesn't seem like it's absolutely It just is a halt and uh yeah,
[13:30] but the disparity within the military has been to some extent exposed due to
[13:37] and a little bit about the Wagner Group per se, like whatever little we
[13:43] know, what I should say I know about wagnized that you know it's a
[13:46] state backed military paramilitary carton and it's chief Pregoson. He's known as Putin's acquaintance
[13:54] from Saint Petersburg in the nineteen nineties, and he was often effort to as
[14:00] Putin's chef, and he has maintained a discrete presence throughout the years, operating
[14:05] as one of the shadow men, you know, behind the scenes. And
[14:09] it was basically like formed to do Puton's dirty work. And since his formation
[14:16] also Wagner has tried to fulfill Potent's dream of uncontrolled military expansion. And in
[14:22] fact, it was that interesting to note that it had resorted to recruiting from
[14:28] prisons, like it was like a strategy probably employed by Stalin during World War
[14:33] Two in order to you know, compensate for the significant laws of Russian soldiers
[14:39] and avoid drafting you know, most most civilians into the conflict. That's when
[14:43] they started recruiting from prisons. And we have seen how Wagner has also expanded
[14:50] to Syria Africa, I mean Central African Republic with an aim to sort of
[14:56] target countries with ongoing pority issues and reaping monetary benefits by getting its stake in
[15:03] the country's natural resources. So it was mainly formed to work as Potent's shadow
[15:09] company, you know, bringing money to the Russian government and never coming into
[15:13] the limelight. But it is a huge money bank and a part of like
[15:18] I said, Russia's foreign policy tool kit At It turned rogue only after there
[15:26] was a lot of differences between the mood in Russia and the Wagner Group,
[15:31] which is a mercenary group. But before that, like you said, it
[15:35] did earn Russia a lot of money. It brought in a lot of money
[15:39] into Russia. The means were illegal. There was no accountability of Russia with
[15:46] the Wagner Group because it was not an official outfit of the Russian administration.
[15:50] So to have deniability and non accountability, this worked beautifully. This entire relationship
[15:58] between Progosion and and Putin, I mean, on this note only like the
[16:03] you know, I was just trying to understand that, Like, didn't put
[16:07] In anticipate that he might be creating a Frankenstein's monster, Because what if this
[16:12] private military company that fights alongside the Russian military grows so powerful and experienced that
[16:19] it eventually starts overshadowing the Kremlin's forces and hence starts calling the stakes and you
[16:26] know, becomes politically more assertive, which is exactly what has happened right now.
[16:30] So did not put In anticipate this? So when when something like this
[16:36] is created, it is on the basis of loyalty. Who was Progosion,
[16:41] Evgeny Progosion. He became a major business takeoon with his catering business, and
[16:48] everybody called him Putin's chief because he also used to cater to the Kremlin.
[16:53] Yeah, and that's when you make in roads and earn your loyalty. So
[17:00] when you are when you are in the inner circuit and you're being given this
[17:03] responsibility to take over a group that has been a very important one for President
[17:11] Putin and lead it in the manner in which he was doing and bringing in
[17:18] so much money, it didn't feel for Putin. He thought he had it
[17:22] all under control. Also, remember President Putin has a few of his loyalists,
[17:27] and he does depend on them in ensuring that whatever he wants and however
[17:33] he wants things done, is done in a certain way. Even over here,
[17:38] he did not think that pregoshan man would revolt, that there could be
[17:42] an insurrection, and that he would revolt in the manner in which things turned
[17:48] out. This was a turn of event that actually made according to reports,
[17:53] Anna made Putin actually leave Moscow briefly because the march was so so so strong
[18:02] and they were so determined to enter Moscow while they had barricaded the entire city,
[18:08] entry points, so on and so forth. But they couldn't have taken
[18:12] a chance. So yes, he might not have anticipated such a revolt,
[18:18] and he I don't think realized the friction that how how major was the friction
[18:26] between Progosion and the Defense Minister of Russia and the man in command in Eastern
[18:33] Ukraine, the Russian man in command in Eastern Ukraine. And it was just
[18:37] the tipping point was when the bombing happened, and eve Guinea Progosion has blamed
[18:45] Russia and Russian forces for having carried out the bombing on their camp there.
[18:52] That certainly is a no goo. So while the while Putin must be looking
[18:55] into what really happened, this certainly was not a situation he would have that
[19:00] he anticipated one, or he would have imagined that eve Ginny precosition would actually
[19:07] go against President Putin. For now, like I said, there is an
[19:14] understanding that Procosion will go to neighboring Belarus, which again has supported Russia in
[19:21] its invasion of Ukraine, and that charges against him would be dropped. Of
[19:26] mounting an armed rebellion within Russia, that's a serious, serious crime in Russia.
[19:32] In any country for that matter, but in Russia it would mean it
[19:36] would it would mean not just life sentence, but beyond, which means that.
[19:41] So so for now that's the understanding. But yeah, very difficult to
[19:48] see that Putin would not have anticipated something of this nature after having given the
[19:56] Wagner group so much of space, so much of importance. But then on
[20:00] the ground war, So when there isn't a war and you're using the mercenaries
[20:04] for certain projects, certain missions, it's different. But when there is a
[20:10] war, then then the mercenary group has to coordinate with the mood and that's
[20:15] where the problems began. No, Yeah, actually, very interesting when you
[20:19] say that Guta that he yes, he did not anticipate this entire tourne of
[20:23] event, and it's being widely spoken in the media everywhere. It means that
[20:29] you know, Putin is now you know, scared, and the dent is
[20:33] there in his stronghold position. So you really think that doesn't really demonstrate that
[20:37] provotion and the forces with him have succeeded in sort of challenging Putin's grip on
[20:42] power directly, and like, is his leadership really under threat as being um
[20:48] widely proclaimed now that has, like Wagner has you know, already shown the
[20:53] weakness of Putin's grip. But what was the weakness annah It was about an
[20:59] ens direction that could have happened anywhere a rebellion could take place in a camp
[21:04] in one battalion of the Russian Army as well look at it the other way
[21:10] around, because I know there would be a lot of writing on how this
[21:15] shows the weakness and friction within Procosion was demanding the ulster of Defense Minister show
[21:22] goo. If Putin would have agreed to that, that would have been politically
[21:27] damaging for Putin rather than you know, taking on Progosion himself, because what
[21:34] was Procosion. It's interesting that even when President Putin was addressing and talking about
[21:40] how there is this armed rebellion, so on and so forth, not once
[21:45] did he actually name Procosian. So Putin was also weighing his options on whether
[21:51] Progosion will succeed or lose depending on that, how he will then be engaging
[21:55] Precosion. So he didn't name the man at all in his address, but
[21:59] he did all the Wagner group traitors, backstabbing traitors, so on and so
[22:03] forth. Right and after Procosition being branded then, although the name was not
[22:07] taken after Proosion being branded. That imagine if if the President would have accepted
[22:15] the demand of outstirring Sergey short book, rather than taking this Wagner Group on
[22:22] and saying that nothing doing. You are not to enter or there will be
[22:26] strict action over here. Yes, the Belarusian came to his rescue and a
[22:33] deal has been struck, But for how long you think procosition is going to
[22:36] stay on in Belarus for all times to come. No, there is going
[22:40] to be some internal conversation between the Wagner Group and Kremlin on how to handle
[22:48] the situation in Eastern Ukraine, because in Eastern Ukraine you still require and need
[22:53] a very strong Russian army as also a very strong Wagner Group to take on
[23:00] the very determined Ukrainian forces. And the Wagner Group has been able to maintain
[23:08] the areas that Ukrainian forces have not been captured territories by Russia, that the
[23:15] Ukrainian forces have not been able to breach and retake their own territory, so
[23:22] they have played a very critical role. But the accusations of Russian forces attacking
[23:29] the Wagner camps in Ukraine in eastern Ukraine with rockets, artillery, so on
[23:36] and so forth, is certainly something that that Putin now will have to Kremlin
[23:41] certainly will have to look into and see act to what is happening on the
[23:45] ground. If you have friction on the ground between the commanding officer General Valery
[23:52] Gerasimov who's the chief of General Staff and defenseman is to show a goop and
[24:00] the Wagner groups perversion, then then then there's a then there can be no
[24:06] forward movement. So the ramifications of the this political term moil could or maybe
[24:12] felt in in the war zone where Russia still is at war with Ukraine.
[24:19] Um so this is this is a very strange nobody anticipated and nobody thought that
[24:25] there would be an armed rebellion within, but a very strange, long drawn
[24:30] battle that has led to problems and friction within and in that the Russian government
[24:37] also came out and put out a statement for the West and a saying that
[24:41] I don't think for once that you can actually use the drastic trouble for your
[24:45] gains. That's not going to happen. That that West is something that I
[24:51] mean, I'll address that, but before that time, when you're talking about
[24:55] Russia Cine War, you think that this is good news for Kiev, that
[24:57] you know, some of Russia as forces have been temporarily now distracted and now
[25:03] the threat to your Ukraine and Europe has somehow lessened. Well it would have
[25:11] if this entire crisis was a little more long drawn. The fact that it
[25:15] ended in a matter of days an I don't see the ramifications of it in
[25:22] the war in eastern Ukraine, although we will have to see what role the
[25:26] Wagner troops are going to play and if they're not going to play a crucial
[25:30] role that they did. They really played a huge role in capturing of Bakhmouth,
[25:37] major parts of Bahmouth, and that was a bloody battle with the Ukrainian
[25:41] forces. But if he is not going to be involved, then what the
[25:45] ramifications are going to be will have to see. But will Ukraine be able
[25:49] to take advantage of an internal strife, I don't see that, at least
[25:56] not in the near future. Is because the ISIS did not last even days.
[26:03] The business typhoon chief of Wagner, it was it was a twenty four
[26:08] hours, It was a twenty four UR chaos. It was a twenty four
[26:14] UR chaos for the March and the ending of the March there was the problem
[26:22] began a few days before that and continued for a few days after. So
[26:27] even if you calculate the whole internal strife, it still does not amount to
[26:33] enough for us to see real ramifications on the ground. Now, where will
[26:37] the ramifications we felt If you're not going to have Wagner Group defend or be
[26:42] a part of the of the fight in eastern Ukraine, if they're going to
[26:48] confine themselves to Belarus and not do anything contribute, then we'll have to see
[26:55] what that would mean for the war against Ukraine. And but for now,
[27:02] it just doesn't seem like it is impacting the war as much as it is
[27:10] actually impacting the political discourse and the scenario within Russia. Yes, yes,
[27:18] and you know I remember, you know, we have talked about the Russia
[27:22] Ukraine war previously, and how you know it's also basically a battle of perception
[27:27] and the second Cold War perhaps with the US and Russia again you know,
[27:32] forming two opposing polls. Now, everything that's happened with the Wagner Group has
[27:38] got the media to again start, you know, talking about Russia having used
[27:44] these private militias as its proxies, you know, to fight civil wars in
[27:49] countries like Central African Republic or Libya or Mali, Sudan and Syria. You
[27:55] know, how they loot these poor countries of their natural resources in exchange of
[28:00] providing them security as assistance and so on. But what the media isn't talking
[28:06] about is the fact that the US, the United States too has similar dealings
[28:11] in countries with ongoing civil wars. And if you remember Gata, we have
[28:15] discussed this in one of the previous episodes, like how the US had a
[28:19] vested interest in continuing its supply of arms to Sudan over the years, even
[28:26] as you know, armed conflict continue to escalate, so they also hasn't been
[28:33] at least in recent times. And from you know what I could find any
[28:37] outright criticism from the US government directed at Russia's Wagner model, you know,
[28:44] which possibly suggests that they are actually impressed with this business model and you know,
[28:48] would themselves like to emulate it. So would you agree with this assessment
[28:55] or would you perhaps say that the scale of Wagner's operations hasn't been and can't
[29:02] be emulated by any other country And as such, Russia deserves more sense to
[29:07] rank here. Actually not Ana, See, it is not about whether if
[29:11] they have criticized the Bognor Group or not. In fact, most of the
[29:15] West since the war have criticized the Bognor Group have They've called them the most
[29:21] ruthless mercenaries, that they are mercenaries, illegal, it amounts of war crime,
[29:26] so on and so forth. Having said that, every country that has
[29:30] invested or is part of any conflict zone, including the West and America,
[29:37] have invested in private armies mercenaries. We've seen it ourselves in Syria. The
[29:42] ones who are anti ASSAD were armed by by the West, particularly by America.
[29:48] And that is that allowed? Is that legal? Is that part of
[29:53] international rules and norms? Not? Really? There are private armies that work
[29:59] with a lot of Western backing. Who works as private armies units in uh
[30:07] We're working in Afghanistan, in Iraq and so on and so forth. So
[30:11] it's not like this model is only unique to Russia. Most of them have
[30:17] it, just as that in other private armies, you'd see people from various
[30:23] countries, like Minded countries. In Russia, it would only be all Russian.
[30:29] Why because they certainly are in control or under the regime in terms of
[30:37] taking orders and decisions, so on and so forth. So that is the
[30:41] only difference otherwise. And also when the when the situation started unfolding, you
[30:48] had Lincoln in an interview say that we are monitoring the situation because we haven't
[30:53] seen the last act, is what he said, which means that it was
[30:56] still unfolding. They everybody was monitoring the situation. They knew that it was
[31:03] Wargner group played a very important role in reaching almost the doorstep of you know,
[31:08] the capital city of Kiev, and uh so instead of speculating, they
[31:15] just wanted to ensure that they are monitored and see and before they could actually
[31:19] come out and maybe even celebrate, the entire crisis took a different turn with
[31:25] Belarus intervening and negotiating terms and conditions for maybe a quiet retrieval rather than an
[31:34] onslaught that could have that would have ended up rather bloody and and in a
[31:41] very bad situation for Kremlin form Moscow, as also for for Russia and Russians.
[31:48] So right now what we're looking at is um the West monitor continuing to
[31:53] monitor the situation. They have been very critical of the Wargner group for the
[31:59] ruth Listeners in which they carry operations out or have carried operations out. But
[32:06] it private armies and mercenaries and funding and providing arms. Arming mercenaries is not
[32:12] new to the West, Anna, I mean, they can't say what they
[32:15] want to put their reports empty and reports to suggest that the West has armed
[32:20] mercenaries as much as you know, you see other countries. Yeah. True.
[32:23] Also one thing that you said that, you know, like we were
[32:27] discussing, and you said that the fact that this entire strife was resolved within
[32:31] a few days. But I was wondering that this uprising, you know,
[32:36] against the Russian military, it not only reflects the increasing divisions and rivalries within
[32:42] its ranks, but it's also kind of a kind of a testament, you
[32:47] know, to the emergence of influential figures, you know, who are able
[32:52] to challenge the mainstream military elites. And I was reading I think it was
[32:58] published, it was in our by the print which listed two important leaders.
[33:05] There was of course Pregotion and another leaders called Ramzan Kadi Roff is the head
[33:09] of the Czechen Republican leader of the Cadi roff See army. So the point
[33:15] being that both these leaders they have direct access to the Russian president, and
[33:22] they are viewed unfavorably by the established military elite who aspire to be recognized as
[33:29] the sole legitimate force in Russia. And this article also noted that just like
[33:34] the Wagner now, the proliferation of private armies in Russia is a growing trend.
[33:39] Ukrainian intelligence also reported the rise of mercenary companies resembling the Wagner group in
[33:47] February twenty twenty three. And there have been latest additions as well to this
[33:52] trend, and one of them is Potok, which is a private army established
[33:55] by the energy giant gas Prompt. So what I'm saying is that if that's
[34:01] the case, if there are so many, I mean, the proliferation of
[34:05] private armies has started, and considering what happened, although it was resolved,
[34:08] but considering what happened, that one private military's rise and revolt could attempt to
[34:14] you know, sort of put Putin in a fix in the spot. Shouldn't
[34:20] Putin be wary of this rise? And if yes, Putin gets really wary
[34:24] of this growing disparity, you think we can anticipate any autocratic step from him,
[34:31] very interesting question, Anna, But just a brief history on the Chechen
[34:37] leader RamSan Cadirov. Now, when Chechnya was at war with Moscow Ms Ramzan
[34:45] Kadov was Putin's Betton War. He was a sworn enemy and then tied changed
[34:53] things turned and we see Ramzan Kadarov as an ally of Putin. The Chechen
[35:00] army again has has played a very important role in the Russia Ukraine War.
[35:06] They have been crucial in capturing of many of the eastern Ukrainian territories. I
[35:12] myself when we were there in the Melitopole area, we actually got to go
[35:17] to one of their bases and interact with the Cardero of Army. And you
[35:22] know how one they are known to be absolutely ruthless. When they were interacting
[35:29] with me, it didn't seem like that, but they are known to be
[35:32] one of the most ruthless mercenaries, worse than the Wagner group or maybe alike.
[35:38] And yes, these two leaders have become very important faces of the war
[35:45] with Ukraine. Career of and proposition and Anna, it is something that Porton
[35:52] has to look at, not in terms of whether they should be creating cult
[35:55] leaders cult figures such mercenaries who have so much of power because they have the
[36:04] strength and might of weapons behind them as well. But the fact is that
[36:08] Cadarov also was complaining of the same thing. He was also he also had
[36:14] problems with the Russian army treatment between and discrimination between what the Russian Army was
[36:20] giving its own people as opposed to the Chechens or for that matter, the
[36:24] Wagners. So the day and then there is another friction between a pull and
[36:30] push between control when it comes to cardiov and precausion themselves. So yes,
[36:37] there is a lot that Putin is dealing with in terms of their own these
[36:40] huge these leaders who become cult figures. They think they're bigger than any other
[36:46] leader and that their wants and their needs are more important than any other force
[36:53] or group. So there is an internal strife. There is a fight for
[36:58] power, fight for space, fight for Putin's attention. All of that in
[37:01] all probability, what we would be looking at and what should be more um,
[37:07] you know, the focus of conversations is how Putin is now going to
[37:13] handle and balance all these people out um. For Putin being very busy with
[37:17] the larger macro perspective of a war, he might have forgotten or it might
[37:24] have escaped his notice that his own people were rather unhappy and are rather unhappy
[37:30] with what's happening on the ground. He in all probabilities far removed from the
[37:35] realities of the ground situation, and that's what has led to this short lived
[37:40] insurrection by Progoson, but also problems that Cadirov has been speaking of, and
[37:46] if if he also if there's a fallout with the Cadirov that would lead or
[37:51] could be worse than the short lived insurrection of Pregosion. So there is a
[37:58] lot that Putin has to deal with. But in terms of having mercenaries and
[38:07] cultivating leaders, I don't think that's the biggest of Putin's varies. It's about
[38:13] how he, in all probability, has not been in touch with the realities
[38:19] on the ground that he should be looking at now. Yeah, yeah,
[38:22] very interestingly. And actually I was also thinking that, you know, with
[38:29] the kind of split that has happened Kremlin and between the Kremlin and Precautions Wagner
[38:35] group, the forces you think that there is I mean, what is the
[38:39] future of the group's influence in the regions where there are countries like Syria,
[38:45] there's Libya, there's Venezuela, there's Central African Republic. You think there will
[38:51] be repercussions for Wagner's operations and countries like these. I mean, whatever happened,
[38:57] it impact the internal strike, Okay, what, well, it'll certainly
[39:01] be impacted, Anna, But the fact is that right now it is not
[39:07] escalated, there is no conflaguration on the ground. That must be a relief,
[39:13] a short breather for Putin, and he will have to get his house
[39:17] in order, whether it is the differences between Choigu Cadaro, proversion Um,
[39:23] the Army Command in Eastern Ukraine, the chief of Defense Staff, all of
[39:29] them. He has to get his house in order in order to ensure that
[39:34] whatever his gains are militarily in Eastern Ukraine, financially in all the conflict zones,
[39:42] and in terms of political and military strength, to have all of them
[39:51] the way he did, they all served a certain purpose and doing away with
[39:57] any of them would mean more pressure on the Russian armed forces, more responsibility,
[40:04] and he cannot wash his hands off saying that they're not part of the
[40:07] Russian government. That responsibility would lead to war crimes and Russia being taken to
[40:15] the war tribunal. So for the kind of operations that Russia carries out,
[40:21] these people are important tools in in Russia's foreign policy, strategic policy to look
[40:30] at it, so, I don't see him doing away with such mercenaries.
[40:32] I only see maybe change of god or change of composition. However that happens.
[40:39] Yeah, it might have a new name also, it might in future,
[40:44] we never know. So lastly, guitar, I just want to focus,
[40:49] you know a little bit on Ukraine. I mean, as I was
[40:52] watching some videos and there were video surfacing of how Zelenski reacted to it,
[40:58] responded to whatever happened, what's transpired. And you know, I remember in
[41:04] many of our episodes, you know, when we discussed Russia Ukraine, when
[41:07] we discussed again Pentagon Leagues, when there were some remarkable revelations that were made
[41:13] that the League's exposed, and I remember you saying that amidst all this havoc,
[41:16] amidst all this, you know, fatality is the violence. Yes,
[41:20] of course, the kind of apathy that was shown by the Russian side is
[41:23] unfathomable. But if we also see Ukraine's president Zelinski's reaction to all this,
[41:30] that was equally alarming, you know, because like instead of advocating for peace,
[41:34] Zelenski continued demanded demanding, you know, additional weaponry from the international community,
[41:40] which prompted many of its allies to provide support. Now with this development
[41:46] and showing it's he's like he's proclaiming loud and clear that the world has witnessed
[41:52] chaos. And he's now even even you know, demanding more fighter jets now
[41:55] that we need it. I mean, I don't I want to understand,
[41:59] Like, what is the point of asking Yes, it's an opportunist move right
[42:02] now that yes, you have to bank on whatever has transpired, But what's
[42:07] the point of asking for fighter jets at this stage now by the Ukraine president.
[42:13] Well na, for President Zelenski, it is a situation right now politically
[42:19] where he cannot back out from. See, if it was only the down
[42:24] Bas region and this situation would have unfold, then President Zelenski would have said,
[42:31] come to the negotiating table like they did in Turkeys on and so forth
[42:36] and Belarus. But after the capturing of territories outside the down Bas of eastern
[42:43] Ukraine, particularly Zapparigia and the Zapparigia and nuclip power plant. Politically, he
[42:50] cannot say come to the negotiating table because for Zelenski he's already said first return
[42:57] or captured territories and then we can talk. Now, I mean, you've
[43:00] already put this condition which Putin certainly is not going to agree to, and
[43:07] he cannot back out from. Zelenski cannot back out from. So it is.
[43:13] It is. That's the reason why all Zelenski's doing is to push for
[43:17] more weapons so that they can actually fight the Russians in these captured territories of
[43:23] eastern Ukraine. Unless and until he gets those territories back, going to the
[43:28] negotiating table would mean political suicide for Zelenski. Yeah, interesting, Geta,
[43:34] and it makes sense now that you say it, and I think will end
[43:38] our conversation on that note. Um, it was really informative, really fun
[43:44] chat and a lot I could learn from one single episode. I'm sure the
[43:47] listeners also learned a lot from your insights. Thanks Geta. It was a
[43:53] wonderful conversation. And likewise, and listeners, if you like this episode,
[44:01] let us know, and I would repeat myself. The number is eighty five,
[44:05] double eight to nine, double six, double line six and the email
[44:07] idea spots at the rate in the Today dot com. So thanks Keeter,
[44:12] thank you so much. And will I mean it was it was the fiftieth
[44:15] episode, but we'll try to do something special in the coming weeks ahead.
[44:20] Yeah, yes, when when he turned fifty two, which is a year.
[44:23] Yeah, thank you anna? Oh yes, yes, how good?
[44:25] How can I forget that? Yeah, thank you so much, thank you,
[44:29] Bye bye.

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