# Niger Coup: Is Africa The Stage For Modern-Era Cold War Retelling? | Geeta's World, Ep 55

An episode of [Geeta's World](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1635741757), 1 Aug 2023, 51 min.

Audio: https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/56336301/01_aug_23_geetas_world_1_aug_128.mp3

West African nation Niger faces unrest under military rule after President Mohamed Bazoum's overthrow in a coup. President Bazoum is now held captive by members of his own guard. Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani, head of Niger's presidential guard, declared himself head of a transitional government. This move has plunged the nation into unrest and turmoil, drawing strong condemnation from the international community. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) leaders have responded by giving the coup leaders seven days to step down and reinstate civilian Bazoum, backed by the threat of force. In this episode, our host Anna Priyadarshini and foreign affairs editor at India Today, TV Today Network Geeta Mohan delve into this coup and Niger’s history in detail. Despite being one of the world's poorest countries, Niger possesses significant uranium deposits and gained independence from France in 1960. The duo discuss how this situation is a blow to democracy in Niger and examine its implications for the country and other major players in the region, what Wagner's role here is, and how it affects the people there. Join us for this insightful episode on the unfolding events in this West African country. Listen in! Produced by Anna Priyadarshini Sound Mix by Sachin Dwivedi Revisit our Sudan episode here: https://podcasts.indiatoday.in...&-history/geetas-world/sudan-why-africas-arms-dump-became-casualty-of-americas-global-ambitions-geetas-world-ep-41-548500-2023-04-25

## Transcript

[0:00] This is in THEA Today podcasts. West African nation Niger faces unrest under military
[0:08] rule after President Mohammad Bajoom's overthrow in a coups, and in recent years the
[0:14] Wagner Group has been instrumental in coups across many African countries. The question arises,
[0:21] is this solely a business tactic for Russia to sell arms and divert money
[0:25] or is there a genuine and coordinated attempt here to thwart the US's attempts at
[0:31] having democracy take hold in Africa. I think it's both. Russia has its
[0:37] interests, it does earn out of such conflicts by funding or by selling arms,
[0:44] But over here it is also about influence, and many experts doubt that
[0:49] the sanctions imposed by France and the EU, including banning and severe punishments,
[0:54] will actually impact Niger. Is it so when experts are saying that does not
[0:59] impact and truly what they're trying to say is that it does not make a
[1:03] difference in the cool decision, so they might sit. But will the decision
[1:07] of who have an impatronage here? Absolutely aid vise economy wise, security device
[1:14] It spells disaster from all fronts. Hello, I'm Anna Pradeshoni with India To
[1:21] Day TV's Foreign Affairs editor Guita Mohan, where with Githa's astute and incisive crasp
[1:26] of world affairs, we delve into all that is urgent and pressing in world
[1:32] politics and comprehend how these developments in other countries could shape India's global ambitions of
[1:38] being a Vishwa Guru. Let's unravel Githa's world. So this is the fifty
[1:47] fifth episode and to my surprise, Gas here the very last moment I got
[1:53] to know that she's coming to the studio. I thought, actually that this
[1:56] was your birthday. Today's our worthday. I don't know, went by?
[2:00] Went by? Yeah? Over the weekend, how is it? It is
[2:04] lovely. I have my sister over from Singapore, so oh, spend some
[2:07] time quality time with my nephew. Yeah it was quite nice. Hop Yeah
[2:14] nice. So the topic that we are trying to attempt today is kind of
[2:21] difficult. I found it like really hard, you know, to research about
[2:24] it. So maybe you can help out with if certain places I go wrong.
[2:30] If I do, although I've worked for it that I've done my research
[2:35] quite extensively, so I'm sure like me, there would be certain people,
[2:38] especially in the Indian context I'm talking about the Indian audience, would be unfamiliar
[2:44] with the subject that we're talking about. It is about a country in West
[2:46] Africa. It's called Niger or Niger and for starters guitar, I think many
[2:53] would be unfamiliar that Niger or Niger and Nigeria. There are two different countries
[2:58] they are, but Nigeria, will you'll see, plays a very important role
[3:01] in the region, particularly with the niger Ko data. Yes, actually,
[3:07] so I'll give a brief as to what happened so last week something really pertinent,
[3:13] really crucial, and that's the basis of our conversation this time. Now,
[3:16] the West African Niger is under military rule following a coup in which President
[3:23] Mohammad Bazoom He was overthrown and he is now held captive by members of his
[3:30] own guard. So in his replacement, I mean the military coup that has
[3:35] happened. General abdur Rahamani Chani, he's the head of Niger's presidential guard.
[3:43] He has declared himself the head of a transitional government. This move has plunged
[3:47] the nation into unrest and turmoil, drawing strong condemnation from the international community,
[3:54] the Economic Community of West African States, which is the ECOA. Yeah,
[4:00] they have responded by giving the cool leaders seven days ultimatum to step down and
[4:06] reinstate civilian President Bazum, backed by the threat of force and imitate measures have
[4:13] been implemented such as border closures and no fly zone, acid freezes and so
[4:17] on. So in this episode will delve into the school and we'll also try
[4:24] to understand Niger's history and detail, you know, and also like for starters,
[4:29] it's important for me to point this out that despite being one of the
[4:32] world's poorest countries, Niger possesses significant uranium deposits and it gained independence from France
[4:41] in nineteen sixty so you get that. You know, there's a vested interest
[4:45] here that could affect the region and its geopolitics. So we'll discuss the situation
[4:49] that how is it a blow to democracy in Niger and examine its implications for
[4:55] the country and other major players in the region. And also there's some rule
[5:00] that Wagner is playing here and Gita I remember we have done an extensive episode
[5:05] in Wagner group when the entire you know, the thing happened with Wagner chief
[5:11] precotion and how influential or strategically important the Wagner Group released for Russia. Actually
[5:16] not just within Russia or fighting Ukraine, but in the African continent. And
[5:23] this is where you see the presence of Wagner being spoken of in the current
[5:28] you know scenario. Yeah, and there's also an episode that we did on
[5:31] Sudan, so this Wagner Group also appeared there. So not to start with,
[5:38] you know, to grasp the sudden outsting of Niger's elected government, let's
[5:44] address some key points here. That Mohammed Bajum he was democratically elected in twenty
[5:49] twenty one and it was the i mean Niger's first peaceful transfer of power and
[5:57] is recognized. He's recognized as the leged to precedent first ever. And this
[6:01] is the fifth successful military coup in Niger since it gained independence from France in
[6:08] nineteen sixty. You know, there are several reports GETA that suggests that during
[6:13] Bajoom's tenure, Niger made progress in education, public health, security and economic
[6:19] outlook, setting it apart from neighboring countries like Mali, Burkina Faso that belonged
[6:26] to the West African region and they have faced challenges in these areas. So
[6:30] considering these improvements, I want to understand that what is the motive behind this
[6:34] overthrow and what exactly like happened in these in the span of these two years
[6:41] that we saw this military coup rising and overthrowing the civilian government. And in
[6:46] fact it is also because initially it was being a you know, speculated whether
[6:50] this is a coup or exactly. I mean, it's not cool because they
[6:54] were fearful of this thing, that whether the country's army will be supportive of
[6:59] them or not. But eventually it was so now it's actually declared that it
[7:02] is a coup. So what happened since Bazoom took powered and if you could
[7:08] explain that well, see Niger firstly is a country that has seen a lot
[7:15] of crisis on its own, apart from the fact that today what we're looking
[7:19] at is also in a way and a proxy war. While the war is
[7:26] real and exists within the boundaries of its own country. There the interests of
[7:31] the West and the interests of Russia within Niger is the reason why we're seeing
[7:36] how things are blowing out of proportion. General Chiani under President Bazoom actually grew
[7:45] a lot. He did well for himself. He was awarded, then rose
[7:50] up the ranks to become the chief of the army and today he is now
[7:59] in control of the country. What started as what looked like a mutiny when
[8:05] the soldiers turned against the president his own security officials. When they turned against
[8:16] the president, it seemed like a mutiny. It did not seem like their
[8:18] orders coming from elsewhere. So when news started trickling out of Niger, they
[8:26] thought that there could be a case of mutiny and that not everybody's involved,
[8:31] only to later realize that General Chianni now is calling the shots. What happened.
[8:35] There are many issues when it comes to how the entire incident banned out.
[8:43] Bazoom has been fighting jihadists and Islamists within the country and with the help
[8:48] of whom he is considered pro West, so with the help of France,
[8:56] the United States of American. Fact, Niger is you know, one of
[9:00] those countries when it comes to how it is looked at of all the countries
[9:07] in Africa, a country that's still held democratic values and why because of the
[9:13] influence of the West. In fact, it hosts French and US military bases
[9:22] and is a key partner in the fight against this entire Islamist insurgents. Now,
[9:28] what is happening in Nijia is that you're looking at a shift within the
[9:33] army getting closer to Russia. Russia trying to make inroads in Najair And like
[9:41] you very rightly pointed out, the interest in Nazair, it could have been
[9:43] any other African country, but the interest in Nasa is far greater than quite
[9:50] a few other neighboring countries, including Mali and Burgina fas so that we've been
[9:56] talking about where almost sixty percent and fifteen percent of the land is under the
[10:03] control of insurgents and terrorists. So in nijair' is the uranium that makes it
[10:09] very very important and critical. Whoever controls or has influence on Najair will certainly
[10:16] have influence over where that uranium is said, and that certainly raises questions with
[10:24] regards to whether if it was an organic coup or not. A lot of
[10:30] them looking at Russia and the reason why we're looking at Eco wars calling for
[10:37] a meeting, an emergency special meeting, whatever you want to call it,
[10:43] to decide on sanctions against Najair, France is lifting all aid. Most of
[10:50] these countries do rely on a lot of aid because of the insurgency and the
[10:52] terrorism that they're fighting, islam As terrorists specifically that they're fighting. So if
[11:00] France sanctions Niger, if eco WAS sanctions Niger, it's going to be very
[11:07] difficult for them. So for now, we'll have to wait and see how
[11:11] this really pans out. But yes, the zoom is his whereabouts certainly unknown
[11:20] as if now under the custody of the military junta. But will the junta
[11:26] give up power? Will this be a power struggle where the Russians will have
[11:31] an upper hand because they are backing the army over a civilian dispensation that has
[11:37] been backed by the French. And if there is going to be a military
[11:43] intervention by eco WAS, yeah, that certainly is going to be something that
[11:48] we'll have to look at. Yeah. Actually, in certain points that you're
[11:50] raised up, we'll get to those in a bit of detail because they are
[11:54] very, very, very crucial. You know, the Western interests that you
[11:56] talked about, the sanctions that you talked about, lifting their aids all are
[12:01] very crucial. But before that, you know, I was watching a documentary
[12:05] and I remember there was one of the Niger's he was saying that, I
[12:11] mean, he was a part of this protest against the President Bazoom, and
[12:16] he was saying that why we're supporting this military coup is because you know,
[12:20] we have so much of uranium here, but we are now we're being treated
[12:24] as slaves. So I want to understand this mindset that you know, everyone
[12:30] is saying that, you know that the outstage President Bazoom, he needs to
[12:33] be reinstated, and that it should be a democratic system. But the fact
[12:37] is that people in Niger, they're saying that their lives have remained unchanged since
[12:45] twenty twelve, and they suspect France to be a key reason for their countries
[12:50] declining fortunes. And they were seen waving Russian flags during and after the coup.
[12:56] Beyond what everyone is saying about estoration of democracy and this and that,
[13:01] is there a counter narrative that justifies what has happened with logic and facts.
[13:09] Because you know why I'm saying this because for us, you know, on
[13:11] the outside, it is a military coup, but the people in NIGERI they
[13:16] would be seeing this as the outstir of an incompetent leader and a revolution like
[13:20] same way as in like we can talk about our freedom fighters right like for
[13:24] the British they were terrorists, but for us they were revolutionaries. So how
[13:30] do you say this, like is there account and narrative that you can see
[13:33] which is backed by logic and facts? See on both accounts when when you
[13:39] see the kind of apprising that you see, even if people are standing with
[13:43] military takeover, there are narratives that are built. Now if you look at
[13:50] the narrative over here, while the West is back in Bazoom and Bazoom is
[13:54] pro West, is that that's how he's considered. In Africa, coups have
[14:01] not been rare. In fact, they are They are commonplace. Many countries
[14:07] have suffered coups for various reasons. Quite a few of them are against dictators
[14:13] or long serving presidents who are authoritarian and dictatorial. What happens over here is
[14:20] that if you're fighting Islamist terrorism but you've failed to bring instability, will that
[14:28] not be used by the other side to tell people, well, he is
[14:33] not efficient enough, he's not competent enough. He might have the support of
[14:37] the West, but that's not good enough, and you're looking at examples that
[14:41] Russia is creating within that very same continent of infusing or inserting the Wagner mercenaries
[14:50] and trying to help the administrations that are pro Russia to their advantage. Couple
[14:56] it with hunger, couple with poverty, with all other aspects that he has
[15:03] not been able to address. So there has been The reasons for this uprising
[15:11] is not absolutely unfounded. The manner, the method in which it has happened
[15:16] is questionable because it is not organic, so to say. It has been
[15:22] manufactured in many ways than one, and is the reason why the West is
[15:28] coming out and saying, well, a coup such as the schools cannot be
[15:31] acceptable. There has to be a change in God. If people are not
[15:35] happy, there could have been protests in the streets. What happened in the
[15:41] Arab spring, It started with protests and massive revolution against sitting dictators and then
[15:48] we saw a change in leadership. Over here, it's the other way around,
[15:52] where a coup has been orchestrated against a sitting elected leader. And the
[16:00] play over here is not going to be just about what people think is right
[16:03] or wrong. The reasons for it because if people are out in the streets
[16:07] and they are supporting General Channey, then there is a problem. Yeah,
[16:11] and there are so there are certain who are aghast or shocked with the school,
[16:18] but there are many others who are also supporting General Channey, saying that
[16:22] he has lost popularity and he no longer is the same leader who we thought
[16:26] would bring about change or fight and bring an end to this Islamist extremism.
[16:33] So nature has remained unstable and the security scenario has been difficult. On top
[16:41] of that, your economic situation has not improved. Despite like the narrative,
[16:47] course, despite the fact that you have uranium, you have rich deposits of
[16:52] uranium, you have not been able to use that to your advantage. So
[16:56] these are the things that have been given us as reasons why he should go.
[17:03] Yeah, but there is an entire section that says, okay, that's
[17:07] the counter narrative. Okay, we have a problem in hand. He might
[17:11] not be efficient, but this is no way a military leadership. A country
[17:18] rule by military never succeeds, it never has. And so their entire argument
[17:26] is that a government being pro certain, you know, having certain allies,
[17:32] pro certain governments, does not make him wrong. It just means that he's
[17:37] elected and if you have a problem, then you should change the leadership come
[17:41] elections and like you're saying, it's orchestrated. So this president Bajomi was elected
[17:48] in twenty twenty one, so like how much time did he even have to
[17:52] get to work? I mean two years is not something that you would be
[17:56] assessing. And I remember, you know, there was an article in the
[18:00] Conversation and that person he said that he apparently had visited a Niger probably a
[18:07] month ago if I'm not wrong, and he said that, you know,
[18:11] it was still unclear at that point a month ago whether this was a coup
[18:15] because and there was no popular uprising or protest before the school, so it
[18:19] was talking about Niger only, right, yes, yes, right, yeah,
[18:22] So it could be said that, you know, this is just internal
[18:26] politics within the military, right, I mean that that could be the case,
[18:30] but then it would not have led to the kind of impact and reactions.
[18:34] Look, one is the fact that bazoom Is has been taken hostage.
[18:40] Secondly, look at the international reaction. Yeah, it's not just equals,
[18:45] it's not just the region. You have France, the first while colonial power
[18:51] of which Niger was a colony. You have the United States of America,
[18:56] you have the United Nations, you have countries world over that are looking at
[19:00] Niger and saying, well, this is unacceptable. Imagine a military intervention and
[19:07] that could mean that this matter could really get serious. So ultimatums have been
[19:14] given, and the ball is in the army squat, in the military wing
[19:19] scot whether if they are going to reinstate Bazoe because that's the demand, or
[19:26] whether if they're going to dig in their heels, which would mean military intervention
[19:30] from other countries. And Nigeria has already stopped all aid and fuel if I'm
[19:37] not wrong, which means that in a few days you will see problems within
[19:42] the country, economic problems, shortage of supplies of basic necessities including you know,
[19:51] movement would be curtailed if fuel doesn't reach Niger. So there are a
[19:56] lot of issues. And I don't know whether if it was a very well
[20:00] thought out planned cool or not, although it was a bloodless school it was
[20:07] it was, yeah, but things are getting serious now with the protests and
[20:11] the yeah, and you mentioned something about Islamist extremism and the reason that the
[20:18] military has also given Chani has claimed that Bazoom's government had failed to deal with
[20:25] this violent Islamist extremism that has festered in the region over the past decade.
[20:30] Now, and I'll site a report here that was quoted in one of the
[20:34] works articles which says it is from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies that says
[20:41] that the vast majority, which is ninety percent, of last year's violent events
[20:47] related to Islamist extremism in the Sahil, which is the entire regional region.
[20:52] Yes, that's the region, Yeah, where Mali. Everything is so in
[20:56] the Sahail occurred in Mali, Burkina Faso Son of these violent or violent events.
[21:04] And while the number of violent events in Niger double two hundred fourteen,
[21:10] the number of deaths due to extremism declined by half. I mean, how
[21:15] do you read these numbers like you're saying that Chinese is claiming that these events
[21:22] have actually doubled. And so there has been a huge effort to fight extremism
[21:27] in the region, and the Western allies have played a very important role.
[21:33] But when you're telling the people, it is still not a stable country,
[21:37] it is still not a country rid of Islamist extremism. You can take the
[21:42] numbers and say well it has reduced, but having Burkina Faso on Mali as
[21:48] your neighbors, certainly it does not help because they are riddled with these organizations
[21:53] and these extremists crossing over is not a problem. And while the number of
[22:03] instances or incidents would have reduced compared to the past, it still is not
[22:08] a situation where Nigeria is considered a stable country. So that certainly is something
[22:15] that can be held. But the other part the economic situation. Economically also,
[22:19] it has not improved a lot in terms of its standard. And thirdly,
[22:25] when you're talking about uranium, which is why I'm saying that this certainly
[22:29] looks like a proxy war between the West and between Russia, between Ian between
[22:36] Russia and the West. We have there are reports over here of how President
[22:41] Bazoom, even before the coup, was complaining of a disinformation campaign by Wagnomer
[22:48] scenaries that he was talking about how they have tried to exploit the mineral resources
[22:55] in other African countries to fund their own operations, which they would like to
[23:00] do so much in Niger as well, and which is what Bazoom has been
[23:04] trying to stop although the US has come out and said that there's no indication
[23:11] that the Wagner force was involved in the overthrow of President Bazoom, but added
[23:15] that the situation continues to remain quite fluid. But the United States of America,
[23:21] without confirmations, is not going with the narrative of Wagner involvement. They're
[23:29] just trying to be diligent about it. But Bazoom has been talking about it.
[23:34] If you follow experts who have been following Niger and the developments over there,
[23:38] they are saying that there is a problem. There is an issue in
[23:42] how the people of Niger were looking at the administration and the influences on the
[23:48] administration, how the army, and whereas other influences could influence the people in
[23:56] saying that, well, this is the government and it has a certain tilt,
[24:00] it is pro West, whereas our interests could lie in engaging both.
[24:07] And also the fact that they are they were being wooed by the Russians,
[24:14] that certainly is not something that is unknown to all. So these are very
[24:18] important developments that you're looking at. But yes, for people far away from
[24:23] the African continent, it would seem like what is happening and why is it
[24:30] important to know what is happening in the yair because geo politics today is so
[24:36] intertwined that don't look at the Russia Ukraine war in isolation, look at what
[24:41] Russia is doing in Africa as well. Don't look at Russia Ukraine war in
[24:45] isolation on what the West is doing. Don't look at what they were trying
[24:48] to do in Ukraine. And now Ukraine is a bit stuck, you know,
[24:52] with this unending war with Russia. But look at what they're doing in
[24:56] Africa as well. Y is intertwined. And while they're fighting the good cause,
[25:03] maybe you're fighting Islamists and Islamic extremism. The fact is that at what
[25:11] costs? Which are the countries that they're choosing, are their adult emotive and
[25:15] what is the difference between like how a democratic government would be approaching to contain
[25:21] these tiha there's elements, and how a military power would be containing It's a
[25:26] very important question. Um let's look at some of the more dictatorial or authoritarian
[25:36] regimes when it comes to handling terrorism. There's only one way that is having
[25:41] a very strong security architecture, whether if if you're a democratic setup, or
[25:45] whether if you're a presidential setup or whether if you're an authoritarian setup. It
[25:52] doesn't make a difference to the other side because you're not you're not tackling or
[26:00] handling a state actor. You're handling a non state actor. It's not representing
[26:04] a country or a state. So when two countries are fighting each other,
[26:08] there are rules to follow. There is even if war is happening, You
[26:12] diplomatically engage each other, you open up hot lines, you talk with terrorists.
[26:18] There is no hot line, there is no engagement. So you need
[26:22] to have a very strong security architecture in that there could be differences in how
[26:30] an authoritarian regime handles it visa vie how democratic set up handles it. And
[26:36] you have seen democracies fight the good fight against terrorism, but you've seen author
[26:42] autocratic regimes too. And interestingly and and now you also see a mix of
[26:48] both. You're seeing in this very region. And I keep giving this example
[26:53] US cooperating with Saudi Arabia, which is not a democracy, to build a
[27:00] very strong architecture security architecture. You're looking at us Ua, Israel and India
[27:08] doing the UTI two and creating a very important architecture where you know, not
[27:18] every nation, particularly the UAE is not a democracy. So it is not
[27:22] about what form of government you have, but who is heading that government.
[27:27] Now I've given you a decent example. The authoritarian dictators who are outstered or
[27:36] their coups against them, or they're still fighting them in Africa are different.
[27:41] Why because for them self interest is more important than anything else. The regimes
[27:48] are quite corrupt, their self serving rather than serving the people, and they
[27:55] can throw their own people under the bus for their own gains. That i'd
[28:00] be a difference in how terrorism is handled. If there is money to be
[28:03] made, if there are deals to be cut, will the people suffer at
[28:08] the hands of extremism? They could. But Nizer was different because Bazum ensure
[28:15] that he had he had France and US as friends to tackle extremism, so
[28:22] he was handling it differently. But it still had there still was a lot
[28:27] of work to do. Although he was not very old in terms of you
[28:32] know, the tenure at this current tenure it started in twenty twenty one,
[28:37] not very old, but still there was enough room for the army to have
[28:45] conversations. Again, we don't know what the gains are for general Charney over
[28:51] here, it's not just the country. It could mean a lot more things.
[28:55] We're talking about the Wagner mercenaries, or even Russia for the matter,
[29:00] there could be a lot more at stake. But again, a country can
[29:04] get played. One should also look at how other countries with diverse views and
[29:15] very very strategic standpoints want to gain out of a country. Why should only
[29:22] the West have a hold, So trying to gain ground, making in roads,
[29:26] whether it's Russia or China within the African continent, you'll see that they're
[29:32] growing a lot. So this is larger geopolitics now being played within Nija.
[29:40] But yes, if you look at the cool itself, and if you look
[29:45] internally domestically, this could spell a lot of problems for the Bazoom administration.
[29:52] Why do I say that is because there are a few things that he did
[29:57] now. President Bazoom's government partnered with European countries to stop the flow of migrants
[30:04] across the Mediterranean Sea, and he agreed to take back hundreds of migrants from
[30:11] detention centers in Libya. He also cracked down on human traffickers in what had
[30:18] been a key transit point between other countries in West Africa and those further north.
[30:26] So what will happen. All these policies will come into question now.
[30:30] And these policies help whom They help Europe, they help the West. So
[30:36] he is he was looking at the interests of his own country, but in
[30:42] cooperation with the West and their interests to that shift now has taken place within
[30:49] the zare where all these policies if thrown into the Mediterranean Sea literally so wouldn't
[30:59] be in a huge, huge concern for Europe, but not so much for
[31:03] Russia. The Wagner so so. So the long drawn or the long and
[31:08] short of it is that this is going to take a while, but there's
[31:12] an ultimatum. So let's see where the ultimatum takes General Charney. And if
[31:18] he digs in his heels and stays on, that could really invite more trouble
[31:23] because that would mean military intervention as well. See when it comes to Russia
[31:27] Ukraine, a direct conflict or NATO entering. You know, why is NATO
[31:33] not entering is a different question altogether, because NATO would mean that Russia will
[31:37] open its you know, war not just within Ukraine but in other parts of
[31:45] the of Europe and that would have meant Third World War. Here it is
[31:49] going to be confined to these countries or certain countries or the Equo wars coming
[31:56] to Niger's rescue, to Bosom rescue. So there's a huge difference. But
[32:02] that would mean a lot of bloodshed. For now, it has been a
[32:06] bloodlust coup. Yes, And you know, there's a counter question as a
[32:12] like to what you said. You know a little about the just sheer number
[32:16] of military coups that happen in the African continent. What is interesting is that
[32:22] even after independence, Western powers are still being blamed for the governance crisis in
[32:28] the region. In know, somewhere France is bucking the blame. In other
[32:31] places it's the US and Russia, and justifiably so. But in recent years
[32:37] it seems that for coups, you know, in a lot of African countries,
[32:43] like you have been discussing, it's the Wagner group that is playing an
[32:46] important rule. Both Mali and Burkina Faso blamed France for their poor fortunes and
[32:54] took support from the Wagner Group. There's a suspicion that you know, Wagner
[32:59] might have had a role to play in Niger as well. I mean it's
[33:02] not confirmed yet, given that the democratically elected setup was to the US is
[33:07] liking, you know, like my question here being that is this just a
[33:14] business for Russia, as they're discussed in the Sudan episode as well, to
[33:19] you know, sell arms and ammunition in poor and unstable African countries and divert
[33:24] that money back to Russia so that the Ukraine War can continue. Or is
[33:30] there a genuine and coordinated attempt here to thwart the US attempts at having democracy
[33:37] take hold in Africa? And in that sense, is it too soon to
[33:42] call this the new Cold War? Breeding in hot industry Africa? I would
[33:47] not call this beginning of the Cold War, but yes, in all other
[33:53] aspects, in terms of your assessment of how and why the situation is hot
[34:00] up in the African content, and how certain African countries are being looked at
[34:07] in a certain way by the West and by Russia and China, so on
[34:10] and so forth. Absolutely, it's not about taking out dictators or bringing about
[34:20] Democracy's about which countries strategically see its not just economically or in terms of rare
[34:27] earth metals or rich resources including uranium being found in certain countries. It's also
[34:34] about how much influence you can wield in these parts of the world as well.
[34:38] They were while French colonies. Now they continue to have a lot of
[34:45] influence from France. Having said that taking out dictators, dictators is not the
[34:52] only idea why you know, US is invested in these regions, getting bringing
[35:00] in democracy is not the only idea or is not the primary idea when the
[35:04] West invests in such countries. I give you a very simple example. Mubarak
[35:12] led Egypt for decades and was a very important key ally of America, and
[35:22] when the coup happened, or when he was ousted in the manner in which
[35:27] he was, America was a little jittery with what's happening in Egypt and that
[35:32] they're losing a friend. But they stayed out of it. Why because he
[35:35] was a dictator. But it was not of their own doing. Libya,
[35:43] the dictator was anti us, so they jumped on the opportunity of calling him
[35:49] out immediately, and to a certain extent, you know, supported the entire
[36:00] revolution, so to say against that's against Gharafi. So you're looking at countries,
[36:08] you're looking at the West, who have their own vested interests. You're
[36:13] looking at countries outside of the African continent who have their own vested interests and
[36:17] that's why they are invested in Africa. Is it about supporting a dictator or
[36:22] not? Not? Really, it is about at that moment, what serves
[36:29] that country's interest if it were if it were not by zoom it, if
[36:35] it were someone else. And there are many other countries where you've had long
[36:38] serving you know, dictators or authoritarian governments or presidents, long serving presidents who
[36:45] have engaged in a pro West. That's not when the West has a problem
[36:50] with them. It only they only start having a problem when they are anti
[36:53] West and they start siding with another country over here. I think what has
[36:59] happened is that there's a huge reason of Burkina Faso and Mali and the problems
[37:07] that percolate and that have trickled into a Niger for a very very long time
[37:12] and was one of the reasons why they could actually manage this school against the
[37:19] president. To your question on Russia and why is Russia invested in countries like
[37:25] Niger. Is it only for the to earn profits out of a war to
[37:34] then be able to fund their own war in Ukraine or is it to do
[37:38] with other aspects. I think it's both, again going back to the fact
[37:44] that they have uranium deposits, but also more importantly, they're a very important
[37:49] country in the sense geostrategically in the region to have your own influence there.
[37:55] Right now, Wagner might have fallen out goals and might have fallen out with
[38:00] Putin, and that also be not to show whether if he actually has or
[38:05] hasn't. We'll have to wait and see how that story pans out. But
[38:08] in the meanwhile, Wagner has been an important group for Putin in his strategic
[38:15] alignments in various parts of the world, and particularly in Africa, where like
[38:21] we discuss Sudan, there are many other countries where you have Wagner presence over
[38:25] here, while the US is not confirming any such reason, but the thing
[38:30] is that it's too It's multi pronged. Russia has its interests, it does
[38:36] earn out of such conflicts by funding or by selling arms, but over here
[38:45] it is also about influence, the large, great European influence that it wants
[38:52] to under pressure today and almost a tricky is not going the right way for
[38:59] the West and Putin taking advantage of the scenario to ensure that its own interests
[39:06] are served in the region, whether if it is by selling arms, by
[39:10] ensuring uranium for themselves, by having a government that's pro Russia, which is
[39:19] right now quite rare across the world. So for them to really be able
[39:23] to find crisis where they can find allies in the crisis is important. Yeah,
[39:30] and so they will do what it takes. They're quite focused and quite
[39:36] torn between the war that they're fighting and the geostrategic developments that are taking place.
[39:42] Putin has not left Russia. There are so many events that are taking
[39:45] place close to supreminine tenth. We have the G twenty taking place in India.
[39:52] If things continue the way they would, would he actually turn up over
[39:57] here in India for the G twenteen person These are questions that are going to
[40:00] be quite important. He was the jumping and Putin both had not confirmed their
[40:07] participation in the SEO, probably the reason why SEU went virtual rather than having
[40:14] an in person, which is what Deliver was planning. So one presidency gone,
[40:17] the other one coming up. And if she Jumping and Putin don't turn
[40:22] up for g twenty as well, it's going to look pretty bad. But
[40:27] coming back to Niger, he or Russia is trying to do all it can
[40:32] to secure its own interests in the region. But the larger victim of or
[40:38] the only victim, I should say, of all the geopolitics that has played
[40:44] out is Naga itself and the people of Ninjer because nobody wants instability when you're
[40:50] already are battling with a very severe security situation. And for Nijer, this
[40:57] is going to be a test in many ways. It's considered West Africa's bel
[41:04] weather state politically, democratically, so on and so forth. You'll have to
[41:09] see how whether if there is going to be a return to democratic stability,
[41:15] whatever said and done, Having an elected government does talk about political stability.
[41:21] Whether if there was security in terms of the security situation and the threats from
[41:30] Islamist insurgents is another question altogether. But now losing that balance would mean that
[41:37] nature has a lot to lose, and if sanctions are leveled against the country,
[41:43] then it's not just the army but the people who would suffer the most.
[41:47] Actually, yes, so geta when you said sanctions, you know I
[41:52] was reading up and the international community's rule. Here is something that we cannot
[41:57] miss talking about. So you know, there are seven reports which suggest that
[42:00] the sanctions and threats imposed by France and the EU, they are unlikely to
[42:07] have a significant impact on CHANI and the other COO plotters in Nijet. And
[42:13] there was an expert in the works who also stated that sanctions, you know,
[42:17] banning them, slamming them with a lot of punishments, they don't work
[42:22] because these have been employed in the past against Honda governments in Mali and Burkina
[42:28] far so without detering their actions. So I want to understand here that you
[42:34] know, the seven day ultimatum with a lot of sanctions, it has been
[42:37] tried and tested, but it has failed. So now how do you see
[42:42] like do you think you know, as a situation in Nijet remains so much
[42:45] fluid. Don't you think it's calls for a more thoughtful and pragmatic approach from
[42:51] the international community or do you think this is the pragmatic approach that they can
[42:54] take well to certain externana The experts are right that it doesn't help because most
[43:00] of these countries have the whole of Africa is so divided in how where's other
[43:06] countries want to engage them that if not this, then there's always another block.
[43:10] And because there are blocks today in this so called as a multipolar world,
[43:17] there are other polar blocks that come out and support and when that starts
[43:22] happening, then the block, supposed it's the Western block, they start start
[43:30] losing out and losing control and influence on a country that maybe can be quite
[43:37] important for them in terms of resources minerals that they have. And therefore,
[43:43] you see all the aid does not sanctioning and stopping all aid does not really
[43:50] mean that the country will turn. In fact, if anything, when a
[43:54] dictator or a junta takes over, they really care very little about sanctions because
[44:04] they would have already known that should they ever carry out a coup, they
[44:07] would be sanctioned. They're already prepared. Are they prepared to make their people
[44:15] suffer? Quite literally? So, you know, because if you see the
[44:19] countries where you have in the recent past military takeovers, economically those countries are
[44:25] suffering. So when the experts say that it does not make a difference to
[44:30] the country in terms of impact, I agree with the fact that military regimes
[44:37] dig in their heels irrespective, but does it really actually have an impact.
[44:43] Absolutely. Now let's talk about Niger. Nijer is the world's seventh biggest producer
[44:51] of uranium, the radioactive metal that is used worldwide, especially in the nuclear
[44:58] projects. Now, in terms of aid, about more than two point two
[45:05] billion dollars or forty percent of Nature's budget comes from external partners. Forty percent
[45:10] of their budget. Now, look at what the sanctions are looking like.
[45:16] Now. The Western West Africa Regional Block which is eCos, is looking at
[45:23] imposing some very stringent sanctions on Niger. So far as the who is concerned
[45:30] with the immediate effect, the Block has suspended all commercial transactions with Niger,
[45:35] frozen Niger's state assets in the Regional Central Bank, frozen assets of the state
[45:40] and state enterprises. A plant thirty billion francs bond issuance by Nature in West
[45:46] African regional debt market was canceled by the Regional Central Bank. Financial sanctions could
[45:54] lead to Nijer defaulting. A payment fault by a country is big, yeah,
[46:01] so it is going to impact the country's economy for a second. European
[46:07] Union is one of Niger's biggest contributors now they are suspending financial support and cooperation
[46:15] and security with no financial support Burkina and USA and Mali sitting right there and
[46:22] the Islamist extremists right there. They are also withdrawing cooperation on security, which
[46:30] would what would the impact be will not just be financial, it will be
[46:35] security wise as well. Yeah, moving forward, now you know the budget
[46:39] budget reallocations can be you know, if somebody wants to can read it in
[46:45] detail. But we can just go forward to France, very important partner of
[46:51] Niger. They are suspended development aid and budget support with immediate effect. French
[46:58] development aid for Niger was at around one hundred and twenty million euros that one
[47:02] hundred and thirty million dollars in twenty twenty two alone. France has about one
[47:08] thousand, five hundred troops in a chair. It relied heavily on Nazair after
[47:14] it withdrew its count insurgency troops from neighboring Mali and Burkina fast so because this
[47:20] region is completely marred with extremism and such problems. So when they could not
[47:30] sustain them there, they moved them into to Niger. United States of America,
[47:35] another major donor, has warned that military takeover Niger could lead to suspension
[47:39] of all cooperation. They're about thousand to about one thousand and one hundred US
[47:45] troops in a chair. Yes, these are two bases that US and France
[47:50] operate out of, right, they operate out of Niger, you know,
[47:54] and their troops are based there. But imagine pulling all that out in Nige.
[48:00] There will be a huge impact. So when they say that, when
[48:04] experts are saying that does not impact them truly, what they're trying to say
[48:08] is that it does not make a difference in the coup decision. Yeah,
[48:12] yeah, that decision has been made to Actually an ultimatum will make no difference
[48:17] because they will talk to Russia, they will talk to you know where's others
[48:22] and see how they can bring in aid support, financial support, sustenance for
[48:29] the time that they would be in the blacklist. So you're saying that this
[48:32] would be an enough impact for the seven day ultimatum to be crumbled. Not
[48:37] really, I'm saying that what experts are saying is correct. But no matter
[48:42] what, generals don't give up power easily, so they might sit. But
[48:46] will the decision to a coup have an impact? Manage are absolutely aid vise
[48:54] economy wise, security device, it spells disaster from all fronts. But who
[49:00] are the partners that General CHANI would be looking at a partner not just economically
[49:05] but security device as well. And we'll have to see whether if he's able
[49:08] to manage securing the borders, because that does not happen whatever little bit of
[49:15] stability that Niger witnessed in the recent past. We'll just go down the train.
[49:20] I mean, that was very well explained and it is a good conversation.
[49:25] Like you said, this is actually going to be a very interesting development
[49:29] to look at and probably we might also revisit it once we are more can
[49:34] we move forward and if they move, if there's any movement. But I
[49:37] suppose that next week we'll have a very interesting conversation on two years of Kable
[49:44] falling. Yes, actually that Taliban administration took over on the fifth of August.
[49:50] It's the weekend, so next week we'll discuss where does the Taliban administration
[49:57] actually stand with Afghanistan. Things are only getting worse in many ways. So
[50:04] I appreciate all the support we're getting from our listeners, Anna, and it
[50:08] is important because all the love support and the appreciation that we get is important
[50:15] for us to continue going the way we are. It has been fifty five
[50:22] episode without a single break. Yeah, let's keep the record going and keep
[50:30] having these wonderful conversations. Anna, thank you Geita. And on that note,
[50:34] I'll just add the numbers and the email idea that they can reach out
[50:37] to. The number is eight five, eight nine, double six, double
[50:42] line six and the email idea spots at the rate in dat to day dot
[50:45] com, so feel free to reach out to us. And will also include
[50:51] your messages on during the episode, so that would be really helpful. And
[50:54] thanks to you Geita. I would really appreciate if you come here the next
[51:00] episode. I said, so thank you, let's see. Thank you. H

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