# VC10X Pulse - Iran-US Talks Fail. Markets Rally. What’s Driving the Disconnect?

An episode of [VC10X - Investing, Venture Capital, Asset Management, Family Office, Wealth Management](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1632806986), 16 Apr 2026, 3:36.

Audio: https://anchor.fm/s/a453ddd4/podcast/play/118552609/https%3A%2F%2Fd3ctxlq1ktw2nl.cloudfront.net%2Fstaging%2F2026-3-16%2F422197205-44100-2-644b5e5fbd67a.mp3

In this episode of VC10X, we break down one of the most counterintuitive market moves in recent weeks. Despite the failure of the first round of Iran–US talks and rising geopolitical tensions — including increased military positioning around key oil transit routes — global equity markets have erased their losses and added several trillion dollars in market capitalization. So what are markets actually pricing in? We analyze: - Why equities are rallying despite geopolitical risk - The role of oil supply stability and the Strait of Hormuz - How institutional investors think about “contained escalation” - Why liquidity conditions continue to outweigh headline risk - What could break the current market narrative This is not a headline-driven view — but a framework to understand how capital is positioning itself in uncertain environments. If you’re a fund manager, allocator, or serious market participant, this episode will help you separate signal from noise. LINKS Prashant Choubey - https://www.linkedin.com/in/choubeysahab Subscribe to VC10X newsletter - https://vc10x.beehiiv.com Subscribe on YouTube - https://youtube.com/@VC10X Subscribe on Apple Podcasts - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/vc10x-investing-venture-capital-asset-management-private/id1632806986 Subscribe on Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/7F7KEhXNhTx1bKTBFgzv3k?si=WgQ4ozMiQJ-6nowj6wBgqQ VC10X website - https://vc10x.com For sponsorship queries reach out to prashantchoubey3@gmail.com This channel is for asset managers, allocators, and investors who want analysis that holds up — not headlines dressed as insight. Subscribe for weekly data-driven breakdowns of the forces reshaping capital markets. --- Disclaimer:This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. #Investing #PortfolioStrategy #MiddleEastCrisis #MarketOutlook #InstitutionalInvesting #Geopolitics #OilMarkets #MacroStrategy

## Transcript

[0:00] Over the past 12 days, global equity markets have added
[0:03] several trillion dollars in market cap.
[0:05] This is happening despite a failed first round of talks
[0:08] between Iran and the US and rising military positioning,
[0:12] including what's effectively A tightening US-led blockade
[0:15] dynamic. So the question is simple, what
[0:18] are markets pricing in that headlines are not?
[0:22] Let's find out. First, let's start with the
[0:26] facts. The first round of diplomatic
[0:28] talks between Iran and the US have failed.
[0:31] No meaningful de escalation framework has immersed.
[0:34] At the same time, US naval positioning in key waterways has
[0:37] tightened, particularly around strategic oil transit routes.
[0:41] This has raised concerns of a functional blockade environment,
[0:45] even if not formally declared. Under normal circumstances, this
[0:49] combination failed diplomacy plus military signaling would
[0:52] trigger oil price spikes. Risk of sentiment equity
[0:56] drawdowns. But instead markets have done
[0:59] the opposite. Global equities have fully
[1:01] erased losses from the initial Iran conflict shock.
[1:05] Major indices are back to or above pre conflict levels.
[1:09] Volatility has compressed. Risk assets have broadly
[1:12] rallied. In short, markets are behaving
[1:15] as if escalation risk is contained.
[1:17] There are three explanations for this divergent, the first one
[1:21] being market surprising controlled escalation.
[1:23] Markets are not reacting to headlines, they are reacting to
[1:26] probabilities. The base case being priced in is
[1:30] no full scale war, no prolonged disruption to oil supply,
[1:34] continued signalling, but with limits.
[1:36] Historically, geopolitical conflicts tend to remain
[1:39] regionally contained unless supply chains are directly hit.
[1:43] Secondly, energy markets are stable.
[1:45] That's critical. The single most important
[1:47] variable here is oil flow continuity.
[1:50] Despite tensions, no major 2 points have been shut, no
[1:54] sustained supply disruptions, no extreme price spikes.
[1:58] As long as energy markets remain functional, global growth
[2:01] expectations don't materially change, and equity markets
[2:05] follow growth expectations. Thirdly, liquidity still
[2:08] dominates geopolitics. Right now, central banks are
[2:11] either pausing or signaling eventually easing.
[2:14] Financial conditions are not tightening aggressively.
[2:17] Capital still needs to find a home.
[2:19] In that environment, geopolitical shocks tend to get
[2:22] absorbed rather than amplified unless they directly impaired
[2:25] earnings. That said, this market
[2:28] positioning is not unconditional.
[2:29] There are clear triggers that would change the equation #1 on
[2:33] that list is disruption of key oil transit routes.
[2:37] Any real blockade affecting supply would immediately reprice
[2:40] risk. Secondly, direct military
[2:42] escalation beyond signalling, especially involving multiple
[2:46] state actors. Third is the secondary economic
[2:49] effects. Inflation spike via energy.
[2:52] Are central banks forced to tighten again?
[2:54] If any of these materialize, the current market optimism is
[2:57] vulnerable. For investors.
[2:59] The take away is not that risk is gone, is that markets are
[3:03] currently pricing a narrow band of outcomes that is contained
[3:06] conflict, stable energy flows, liquidity support.
[3:10] This creates a situation where upside is being captured, but
[3:13] downside is under hedged if assumptions break.
[3:17] So the real story is not that markets are ignoring geoportics,
[3:21] it's that they are making a very specific bet on how this plays
[3:23] out. The next few weeks will
[3:26] determine whether that bet was disciplined or complacent.
[3:29] That's it for this week. We'll be back next week with
[3:31] another story from the front lines of global investing VC10X.

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