# WILSON WEEKLY Ep 144 | Spring Surge 2.0: Prices Up, Rates on Hold, and Confidence Returns

An episode of [Money Mentor Podcast™](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1632604767), 8 Nov 2025, 37 min.

Audio: https://episode.flightcast.com/f2yj38o127tlnh9ruazg76ya.mp3

The spring surge continues! In this week’s Wilson Weekly on The Money Mentor Podcast, Rachael Howlett and Dr. Andrew Wilson unpack the latest October home and unit price data, the RBA’s decision to hold interest rates, and the renewed buyer confidence driving property markets across the country. From soaring prices in Adelaide and Melbourne to a record-breaking auction season, the duo break down what’s really behind the numbers and what it means for everyday Aussie homeowners and investors. Plus, Dr. Wilson gives a hands on demo of Infinity’s powerful new suburb data app, showing how you can track real time market performance like a pro. Discover our new tool: What's My Rental Home Yield? Money Mentor YouTube Channel: @moneymentorau Link to Dr. Andrew Wilson on LinkedIn: / dr-andrew. If you enjoyed our podcast, make sure you follow and subscribe to stay up to date with the latest episodes.

## Transcript

[0:05] Welcome back to another episode of Wilson Weekly on the Money Mentor Podcast, where we break down the data so you don't have to.
[0:12] I'm Rachel Howlett, your Money Mentor, joined by the man who can make inflation sound interesting, Dr. Andrew Wilson.
[0:19] This week, we've got everything from October home prices, the RBA's latest move to auction action sales.
[0:25] It's heating up across the capitals.
[0:28] Doc, it has been a big month.
[0:29] Should we call this the spring surge 2.0?
[0:34] Yes.
[0:34] Well, it's been a big year, Rachel, not just a big month.
[0:36] So I guess that's how we want to finish the year.
[0:38] We're finishing the year on a high.
[0:40] And today we'll look at the latest house price reports and unit price reports for the month of October.
[0:46] So hot off the press.
[0:49] November, I guess, will probably have another acceleration in prices.
[0:54] It's been a big month, October, following what are clearly signs that November will be.
[0:59] another big month for property until we wind down over the last few weeks of the year, which heads up to Christmas, of course.
[1:07] So I think we've only got six weeks left, Rachel, and then that's it, done and dusted for the housing market.
[1:13] But you can kick back and celebrate what's been a great year.
[1:16] Most, if not all, homeowners have experienced growth, significant growth, of course, some more than others.
[1:25] And so, yeah, we'll have a look at the latest numbers.
[1:27] And for some of the markets, some of the capital city markets, it's quite stunning, the results that we've had.
[1:38] Of course, the other stunning result we had recently has been the Melbourne Cup.
[1:45] which was run this week of course um but uh you know the the all eyes on the melbourne cup well all eyes were on the reserve bank as well because that was the additional melbourne cup day um meeting uh there was some really our bets on the hold were correct i know we'll get into that but did you back a winner doc for the cup no don't do that sort of nonsense it's uh
[2:15] And it's always a crazy day in Melbourne.
[2:17] Well, everywhere, I think.
[2:18] In fact, I think Sydney's sort of taken over to be even more crazy on Cup Day because there's so many parties everywhere in Sydney.
[2:25] And there's nothing Sydney likes more than a good party.
[2:28] And they know how to do that well.
[2:29] And Melbourne Cup Day is no exception, even though they don't get the public holiday as Melbournians do get.
[2:35] But it was, I think we had a female jockey win the Melbourne Cup.
[2:39] Only the second time that's occurred.
[2:41] Good on that.
[2:41] And she also won the Caulfield Cup, which is the other main, well, we could say the other main spring carnival event.
[2:48] So she won a double on that.
[2:50] I think it was on the same horse as well.
[2:51] So fantastic.
[2:52] And someone told me that the horse that won was the only Australian bred horse in the field.
[2:57] The rest were all bred overseas.
[3:00] It's a positive sign of all things Aussie.
[3:03] Yes, it is.
[3:04] And good stuff for the female jockeys, you know, winning it.
[3:08] And she won well.
[3:09] And as I said, she also won the Caulfield Cup.
[3:11] But we were looking at the Reserve Bank's decision.
[3:14] No surprise there.
[3:16] But we've got a lot of little question marks to perhaps discuss regarding that.
[3:21] But we should get on with the business here rather than blathering on, as we usually do to start the show.
[3:27] And, of course, we bring this to you every week, Rachel.
[3:30] A few weeks left of insights into the housing market.
[3:34] We actually have another Reserve Bank meeting as well early December.
[3:38] So I'm not sure anything will happen either there, but we'll see what eventuates then because we'll have a monthly inflation rate
[3:46] result from the ABS between now and the next meeting.
[3:48] So it should be very interesting, again, what happens with the Reserve Bank.
[3:53] My Housing Market is our brand.
[3:57] We're all about the current state and future prospects of your housing market, and every week we bring this podcast to you, which gives you all the latest insights into what's happening today.
[4:06] in the housing market and the broader economy as it affects the housing market.
[4:10] And of course, in conjunction with the good folks at Infinity.
[4:15] So let's get on with it in terms of this week's wonderful action.
[4:20] It is the week ending Wednesday, November the 5th.
[4:24] You know, once upon a time, November the 5th was an important day, Rachel.
[4:27] And this is probably showing my age because I think it was Guy Fawkes Day years and years ago.
[4:32] when all the kids used to gather around the bonfire and let off all the crackers, which I think crackers are all banned now.
[4:38] So I know you're looking like a goldfish there, but that's because, yeah, that's ancient history.
[4:44] So just recalling what November the 5th used to be, Guy Fawkes Night.
[4:47] So there'll be a few people out there going, yeah, I remember that somehow.
[4:50] Yeah.
[4:51] Anyway, let's move on.
[4:52] Blathering again.
[4:54] So this week we're going to look at the latest home price data, October home prices, the RBA rate decision, and the latest weekly auction results.
[5:02] Just can't keep that auction market down.
[5:05] Clearance rate actually a little higher despite the fact that we had another surge in auction numbers.
[5:11] Even though we're seeing clearance rates stabilise, I guess you could say, the actual number of sales is skyrocketing, Rachel, because when we match higher listings with steady clearance rates, it means we're getting more sales coming through.
[5:25] So, really big numbers of properties being sold under the hammer every week.
[5:31] And that reflects, of course, what's happening broadly with prices.
[5:34] So let's have a look at the latest home prices.
[5:36] No surprise, home prices accelerated over October.
[5:41] Those low interest rates are continuing to fuel capital city markets for both houses and units.
[5:46] And I'm sure we'll continue to see that momentum all the way through to the end of the year.
[5:52] Although we do start to see a little bit of easing in clearance rate activity because of high volumes of properties coming through.
[5:58] But nonetheless, there's plenty of momentum in our housing markets.
[6:02] And a bit of that fear of missing out is now also starting to drive more buyers into the marketplace.
[6:08] So when we do put our feet up and wait for that guy to come down the chimney at the end of the year,
[6:15] I'm sure everybody will be feeling, or most people will be feeling quite relaxed and comfortable, particularly, of course, those homeowners that have enjoyed all the growth.
[6:25] So let's have a look at the national result for houses.
[6:28] Over October, what we measure here is the...
[6:31] a three month period for sales on a month by month basis.
[6:35] So that gives us lots of observations to, well, that's not a very scientific word, is it?
[6:40] Lots?
[6:40] But we certainly have a high number of observations so we can get a reliable measure, but we advance it month by month by month.
[6:47] So we see how that trend's emerging.
[6:50] So another big rise in national house prices, and these are national capital city weighted average house prices.
[6:57] So we create a weighted average based on the number of sales in each of the capitals.
[7:01] And of course, that means the big capitals such as Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane are favoured by this measure.
[7:06] But nonetheless, it's a consistent measure so we can see how our national market is moving.
[7:11] So, eight months in a row, Rachel, from increases in the national house price, no surprise that it all starts to pick up following that interest rate cut in February.
[7:21] We have had three interest rate cuts, of course, one in February, one in May, and one in August.
[7:26] So, it has driven improved affordability, and as we'll see with some of these results, growth has been quite spectacular in some of the markets.
[7:37] All our capital city markets, Rachel, recorded positive growth over the October quarter compared to the September quarter.
[7:45] The top result there was Darwin, one of the smaller capitals.
[7:48] Of course, Darwin is in boom mode, B-O-O-M.
[7:52] It's booming in Darwin after a lengthy period of time.
[7:55] Of subdued growth, Darwin's picked up certainly up by 2.9% over the month.
[8:01] Adelaide up 2.7%.
[8:03] That Brisbane market that just keeps on keeping on up another 2.2%.
[8:08] Melbourne up 1.4%.
[8:10] So all good plus 1% positive results for our capital cities.
[8:15] Let's just focus on that Brisbane market, Rachel.
[8:19] As I said, up by 2.2% over the month, up by 11.5% so far this year.
[8:25] up by 13% over the full year.
[8:28] And over the past two years, Brisbane house prices have increased by 31.5%.
[8:32] You've got to be feeling good about that.
[8:35] And hey, look at the comparisons.
[8:37] Brisbane is now 10 grand higher in terms of the comparisons with the Melbourne median price.
[8:44] So now more expensive, clearly more expensive than Melbourne is the Brisbane houses generally.
[8:53] And, you know, Adelaide's closing in as well, and so is Perth closing in on the Melbourne market, although, you know, we are certainly seeing revived growth
[9:02] in Melbourne but will Adelaide catch up with Melbourne soon?
[9:04] Well we'll wait and see the outcome for that.
[9:07] So some good results there and we can see there just that revival in Melbourne so far this year Melbourne up 6.8% for houses and up by 5.9% over the past full year and when we compare that for two years we can see how it has really revived because only 4.9%
[9:24] over the past two years, which is the underperformer of all the capital city markets.
[9:30] So more great results there, particularly for the leaders of the pack.
[9:35] And Brisbane certainly continues to be a standout in the markets.
[9:40] Let's have a look at units, Rachel.
[9:43] The median unit price, weighted average national unit price, it also was up strongly over the month, over the October quarter compared to the September quarter.
[9:55] That's nine months in a row now that we've seen growth in the median national weighted average average.
[10:00] Unit price.
[10:01] Let's have a look at the breakdowns.
[10:03] This is where Melbourne's really started to shine, up by 2% over the month, which is one of its best results for some time.
[10:10] This year so far, Melbourne units are up by 8.3%, Rachel, and look how that compares to Sydney.
[10:16] Melbourne is now outperforming the Sydney market quite consistently with a lot of people.
[10:21] or certainly quite significantly as well, up by 8.3%, which is almost double the growth that Sydney's experienced this year so far.
[10:31] So some very positive results continuing there in Melbourne.
[10:34] Plenty of momentum there.
[10:35] It's got some way to go to catch up to where it's been.
[10:38] But certainly it is on that track to recover what it's missed out on compared to what other capital cities have gained over the last three or four years.
[10:49] Let's look at Brisbane again.
[10:51] We just get tired of saying how great that Brisbane market is, particularly for Brisbane homeowners.
[10:55] I'm not sure the first home buyers would be that thrilled about these numbers in Brisbane.
[11:01] Brisbane unit prices up 3.4% over the month, Rachel, which was the best performance of all the capitals.
[11:08] Over this year so far, Brisbane unit prices are up by 14.6%.
[11:13] That's just this year so far.
[11:15] Over the full year, up by nearly 20%, 19.9%.
[11:19] But, yes, this isn't a typo, Rachel, so don't...
[11:22] Don't accuse me of mistyping this, but up by 50.6%, Rachel, the Brisbane median unit price.
[11:29] So 50% growth over two years for Brisbane unit prices.
[11:35] And as we always say, it wasn't that long ago when the so-called smarties in the market were telling us that the Brisbane unit market was saturated, it was oversupplied, and prices were going to remain flat or fall for years
[11:46] for years to come.
[11:47] Boy, gee, how wrong they were there.
[11:49] This is a really, really strong market and continuing to strengthen as those latest results show, the best result of all the capital cities.
[11:59] So units also performing well over the quarter.
[12:02] Some of the smaller markets there underperforming a little bit with falls in Hobart, Darwin and Canberra.
[12:10] As I said, generally very strong results, accelerating results, particularly for houses over October for our housing markets.
[12:17] If you're looking for a copy of the recent My Housing Market October House and Unit Price Report, you can scan that QR code which is on the screen.
[12:27] And that will give you a link to a PDF copy of the full report, which includes commentary and some insights into the outlook for capital city housing markets.
[12:40] So get hold of that one.
[12:43] So, you know, we're getting tired of all the good news in the property market.
[12:47] I know.
[12:47] Rachel, it's like, oh, whatever.
[12:49] You know, I'm bored.
[12:51] It's positive every week.
[12:53] I mean, Brisbane and Adelaide have clocked 11.5% and 9.8% and units 14.6% and 11.3% respectively.
[13:02] Some of the highest over the last year.
[13:04] I think we're starting to witness a longer term shift in those power states.
[13:08] And we know Queensland leads the charge in interstate migration.
[13:12] But what is driving Adelaide's growth?
[13:14] Well, Adelaide bounced back because it had a quiet end to last year.
[13:18] It was a very strong market through the early parts of 2024 and in 2023.
[13:24] But I think prices got to the point where affordability barriers were sort of setting in.
[13:30] Buyers were being sidelined because prices were high.
[13:32] That's what happens.
[13:34] That's why it's called a price cycle.
[13:36] But along came lower interest rates, and that's refuelled the Adelaide market.
[13:40] But we've always looked at Adelaide and thought, gee, that's a fantastic place in terms of affordability when we compare it to other countries, particularly Melbourne and Sydney, because you always tend to get more bang for your buck.
[13:54] Properties were closer to the CBD, higher levels of infrastructure, more of a low-rise environment, and yet you get properties that were almost half the price for similar types of situations in Sydney and Melbourne.
[14:11] The value aspect is catching up with Adelaide.
[14:14] And I think Adelaide, you know, maybe we might see that Adelaide price overtake Melbourne as well going forward.
[14:22] But you're right about Brisbane.
[14:23] Brisbane just keeps on keeping on.
[14:24] It is, and it always has been, Rachel, the Centre for Interstate Migration.
[14:29] That's continuing.
[14:30] We still get 20,000 to 30,000 net migrants every year moving into Queensland.
[14:36] You know, it's a favourite place for retirement and also for those looking for perhaps a more relaxed lifestyle of the climate and these sort of bits and pieces always attract interstaters into Brisbane.
[14:48] That's part of the story.
[14:50] But I also think it's momentum as well.
[14:52] I think the affordability factor is also driving buyers in Brisbane.
[14:58] So we've got to understand that the economic drivers, income levels, unemployment levels in Adelaide and Brisbane aren't that too far away from what they are in Melbourne.
[15:09] So really Brisbane and Adelaide buyers can get more bang for their buck because they're paying less, or they have been until recently,
[15:16] for their properties compared to Melbourne, and yet they've got the same capacity to repay because their incomes are similar and their economic performance is similar.
[15:25] So I think that's a little bit of that sort of affordability advantage now catching up and converting itself into prices going forward.
[15:32] But I would expect that to continue, but I'm not sure we're going to be driven by lower interest rates going forward.
[15:39] But look at the interest rate story
[15:41] now because that's getting very interesting, Rachel.
[15:45] Yeah.
[15:45] And as we said, we had our traditional Melbourne Cup Reserve Bank meeting and there were some really loopy predictions going around in the media in the days just before that.
[15:57] I don't know if you're up to that.
[15:59] Shall we have a look at what happened in terms of the RBA Melbourne Cup meeting?
[16:04] No surprise, we always felt the rates would be steady over November.
[16:08] I think the Reserve Bank's been a little bit surprised, which it shouldn't have been, in regard to how things have been panning out recently.
[16:16] There was no way no one, given the surge of inflation, that they were going to cut rates again.
[16:20] I think homeowners should be feeling pretty good at that themselves because maybe we've had an interest rate cut or even two, maybe one.
[16:29] a little bit ahead of the game this year.
[16:31] And I don't think that's a terribly big problem because it helps to keep our economy stable.
[16:38] And of course it's good news for property owners in terms of generating higher house prices.
[16:44] The RBA left rates steady at 4.6%.
[16:47] That followed those cuts, as I mentioned before, in February, May and August.
[16:50] Now, this is what the Reserve Bank said.
[16:52] This is what the Governor said in the commentary.
[16:54] So inflation has fallen, and these are the key points, inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022.
[17:00] Yes, we know that.
[17:02] More recently, however, inflation has picked up.
[17:06] This was materially higher than expected, so they got it wrong a little bit here, the Reserve Bank.
[17:12] They didn't expect inflation to pick up.
[17:15] Headline inflation rose sharply, the large part of which was expected given the cessation of electricity rebates in a number of states.
[17:24] Well, if it was expected, how come they said that it was materially higher than expected?
[17:30] Yeah, of course.
[17:32] Is that not, hello?
[17:35] What do you mean?
[17:36] Seriously.
[17:37] They expected it, but they didn't expect it, right?
[17:39] Well, they didn't expect it, but just then we expected it.
[17:42] So there's a little bit of, shall we say, gobbledygook going on here with the commentary.
[17:46] We have been saying consistently here, Rachel, so listeners who are tuning in, viewers who are tuning in, get the,
[17:53] Get the real insight here.
[17:55] And we've been saying for a number of months that watch out for higher inflation driven by higher electricity prices.
[18:01] It's not a secret.
[18:03] We've seen it every month from July, August and, of course, into September, which we discussed last week.
[18:10] We've seen a skyrocketing electricity crisis.
[18:13] And it's not sort of come out of some weird, you know, why is this happening?
[18:17] Well, it's very simple because we were given a fantastic government handout for a year to keep our electricity bills down.
[18:24] A little bit of a coincidence there that it would also keep inflation down.
[18:28] We looked at that last week with the inflation data, which it did.
[18:32] But awkward things come to an end, Rachel, particularly government handouts.
[18:36] And when that handout finished, of course, we're not getting that great support for our electricity bills.
[18:42] And what does that mean?
[18:42] Higher electricity bills.
[18:44] And we saw that in July, in August, and then in September.
[18:48] In fact, in September, electricity prices increased by 33% over the year.
[18:54] So, of course, inflation is rising again because it's a significant part of the basket of goods.
[18:59] So how come it's like, oh, this is unexpected?
[19:02] Why is it a surprise?
[19:03] Hello?
[19:05] The government told us they were finishing the rebate.
[19:08] They told us a long time ago.
[19:10] And they've given us a sort of a rebate light, which is still a subsidy, but it's much lower than what it was.
[19:17] So, of course, what that will mean going forward, please, this is not rocket science, Rachel.
[19:23] What are the economists at the RBA doing?
[19:25] Don't they model the factors of inflation and try to understand it from that modelling?
[19:29] They don't even have to model it because it comes out every month, the latest data.
[19:34] And the fact that we don't have the subsidy always means that we're going to get higher electricity prices.
[19:42] And that's going to continue into next year, Rachel, because our prices will be compared
[19:49] to the period where they were heavily subsidised by the gut.
[19:53] So we're going to be in a period saying, we're comparing it to when they were really low and they were really low because of the subsidy, right?
[19:58] So there'll be no surprise that inflation continues to rise.
[20:01] Now, we might have some offsetting factors.
[20:03] Maybe the price of oil will fall, maybe rents will fall, you know, but you can't rely on that for a logical insight into the prospects for inflation.
[20:13] And as I said, I can't understand what the...
[20:16] Reserve Bank was saying in their commentary, right?
[20:18] And, you know, don't they model electricity prices?
[20:21] Haven't they seen that they were rising?
[20:23] Anyway, at the end of the day, as we've discussed here, it always meant that, you know, they were going to be,
[20:29] very certainly, you know, they're not going to cut rates.
[20:33] In fact, in their commentary, they also said that they were still expecting another rate cut this year.
[20:38] And I was like, really?
[20:40] You know, okay, whatever.
[20:42] How happened that occur with rising inflation?
[20:45] But a number of, and let's face it, a number of click baiters were all over this in the last few days predicting interest rate increases.
[20:54] Increases, yeah, yeah.
[20:57] Why in God's way, why would you be increasing interest rates to try to help the electricity price push down?
[21:04] How is that going to push down inflation?
[21:06] How is that going to ease higher electricity prices, which are going to occur anyway?
[21:11] What's that mean?
[21:11] If you put up interest rates, so people will just say, okay, that's it, we're not using electricity anymore.
[21:16] That's it, you know.
[21:17] So seriously.
[21:18] But, you know, a cheap headline, it's called clickbait.
[21:21] for a reason and of course it was complete nonsense and that's why of course we didn't get an interest rate increase but you know so the reserve bank was still and they've said that they were still maybe thinking about until recently another interest rate cut but now they're starting to say that they believe that the interest rate settings at the moment are no longer restrictive because they thought up until recently they were restrictive and now they're saying no they're not
[21:47] So we don't need to cut them anymore.
[21:49] But who knows what the Reserve Bank's going to do going forward in the future.
[21:53] Let's just hope nobody made decisions based on those crazy interest rate increase headlines.
[21:59] Headlines, yeah.
[22:01] Well, this is what we're here for, evidence-based, you know, reliable insights into the housing market.
[22:06] So just to finish, the board's judgment is that some of the increases in underlying inflation in the September quarter were due to temporary factors.
[22:14] Like what?
[22:15] What?
[22:16] What?
[22:18] What are these temporary factors?
[22:19] Electricity is a temporary factor.
[22:21] We've just said it's going to continue to rise unless, of course, maybe the Reserve Bank are giving us a little bit of a clue here that the government's going to give us another rebate.
[22:31] Maybe we're going to get another handout.
[22:34] Yeah.
[22:35] Hey.
[22:36] Would that surprise us?
[22:37] You know, because this is a very tough position for the government, you know.
[22:44] They're given, then they're taken away, and now we're paying, you know, for... And the whole point is that the cost of electricity, underlying cost of electricity is continuing to rise because the transition, we discussed this last week, the transition from a carbon economy into renewables is taking longer and costing more than originally.
[23:03] hoped expected whatever um so it's very interesting position going forward i think the outlook is for interest rates to stay steady because and this is the big because why should they remain steady there is just a slight sense that the business cycle is just starting to ease
[23:22] I mean, we had a higher unemployment rate over September.
[23:26] We discussed that, Rachel, a couple of weeks ago.
[23:30] Nothing to get too excited about, but certainly it's an early sign.
[23:34] Why would you be increasing interest rates when you've got some concerns over the labour market?
[23:39] The US have just cut interest rates for the first time this year, and that was because they're now more concerned about their labour market than they are about inflation.
[23:48] So I think that's another balancing factor.
[23:50] Do you understand what I mean?
[23:52] that would stop the Reserve Bank increasing interest rates.
[23:56] I don't know where these people who make these ridiculous predictions and how they substantiate it, but I'm sure there's huge disclaimers if you read into the full article saying, oh, yeah, maybe this, maybe that, maybe this, maybe that.
[24:10] But it's just not really a...
[24:14] a rational or realistic outlook, particularly for this decision that interest rates would rise.
[24:21] So just finishing off,
[24:27] But they have said that the central forecast was underlying inflation actually rising above 3%.
[24:33] So now they're saying, okay, yeah, we believe inflation is going to rise.
[24:36] Again, this seems to be a little bit of an inconsistent statement.
[24:40] They're now saying, yeah, but actually we think that underlying inflation will rise above 3% in coming quarters before settling at 2.6%.
[24:51] in two years' time, right?
[24:53] And 2.6% is sort of the mid-range where they start thinking, well, cut interest rates.
[24:57] But that's in two years' time, 2027.
[25:01] There's a lot of, I guess, stuff to be able to regurgitate or gurgitate with the latest stuff from the Reserve Bank.
[25:11] But I think going forward, for our viewers and listeners, I think we're in for a period of steady interest rates.
[25:16] But, of course, we need to watch to see how the data pans out.
[25:20] But I don't think that changes in interest rates are going to be in any way a policy solution to what we're confronting now, which is possible easing in the business cycle.
[25:30] and higher inflation.
[25:33] So we wait and see.
[25:34] And there's the chart, of course.
[25:36] We can see how interest rates fell this year, Rachel, after those strong rises in 2022.
[25:41] And now I think we're going to be in for a period of steady interest rates going forward.
[25:45] But hey, we need to wait and see what the data tells us.
[25:48] So let's finish off, Rachel, unless there's something you'd like to ask me in regard to... Yeah, well, I mean, there's no surprises here.
[25:55] We were feeling the RBA was going to hold the rates, so we were right on that based on our podcast last week.
[26:00] So they are steady at 3.6%.
[26:02] You have said before that 2025 would be the year of normalisation, and I know you've said a few things on this before just previously, but I suppose you are still standing by this as we head into the summer market and the new year.
[26:15] Well, we're going to get 10% growth almost across the board.
[26:17] Well, almost across the board and some a lot higher than 10%.
[26:21] And lower interest rates will do that for you.
[26:23] But where our real stabilisation will come will be next year.
[26:27] When we've had all our growth from the lower interest rates, if interest rates start to steady, that's when we'll start to move back to our sort of long-term underlying growth levels, which is around about 5%.
[26:39] But of course some markets as we've already discussed today such as Adelaide and Brisbane are catching up because of their affordability advantages and they may continue to grow at higher rates than that.
[26:49] And of course the Melbourne market which has been an underperformer is still a value market so it may also
[26:55] outperform its longer term position based on the fact that it's underperformed that over recent years.
[27:02] So even though it's more of a normalisation next year in terms of interest rates perhaps, and we've said that, steady interest rates, I think that prices growth will still be favouring the stronger markets this year.
[27:15] But yeah, look, as I said, I think the big picture for interest rates is I think we got maybe one too many cuts.
[27:22] But that's okay.
[27:23] It just, and I don't think they'll be giving them back, in other words, putting them up.
[27:28] I just think that we take advantage of that lower interest rate perhaps than we sort of had on the data, which was, the Reserve Bank said we had to have inflation consistently in the mid-range, and that was over a number of quarters.
[27:44] We didn't have that.
[27:45] We didn't get that, Rachel.
[27:46] Yeah.
[27:47] But nonetheless, we are here where we are.
[27:49] We've got lower interest rates stimulating our housing market.
[27:52] That's a good thing for personal wealth and confidence.
[27:55] And it's also stimulating our economy, particularly our labour market.
[28:01] we move on, but we're all about the future now.
[28:03] And as I said, I think we're in for a period of normalisation in terms of interest rates, because I don't think it was terribly normal what we had with interest rate policy this year.
[28:15] But having said that, I don't think it was terribly normal with all those interest rate rises that we got through 2022.
[28:20] I think that we, there were probably more interest rate increases than we, that were justified.
[28:26] But nonetheless, as I said, we are what we are.
[28:28] Maybe that's a bit more of the normalisation,
[28:31] That may be one extra interest rate cut that we had this year, in my opinion, offsetting what was perhaps a couple of extra interest rate increases back in 2022.
[28:40] Let's have a look at the auction results.
[28:44] The November, we had the first week in November, auction markets had generally higher clearance rates.
[28:49] I think every capital city had basically a higher clearance rate despite higher listings.
[28:56] That will continue higher listings to the end of the year.
[28:59] We typically see that, Rachel, listings start to surge and that puts downward pressure on clearance rates because it gives buyers more choice.
[29:07] And of course, sellers have more competition with more properties in the market.
[29:11] The big picture is we're seeing big numbers of sales going forward now on a week by week basis, notwithstanding reasonably steady clearance rates, a little bit higher perhaps.
[29:21] But with big numbers of properties, it actually means the net gain in sales is increasing.
[29:25] is quite significant so let's have a look Sydney big numbers in Sydney 1483 auctions up from 1231 the week before similar clearance rate but well ahead of where it was for the same week last year Rachel 10% higher clearance rate
[29:41] Melbourne bounced back despite it was Cup Week, which is a holiday long weekend basically for Melbournians.
[29:49] Of course, they're more interested in the Cup than they are in auctions, well, more or less.
[29:53] So there was a big fall from the previous week, which was the highest number of auctions that Melbourne had conducted over the week for the year and will be for the past.
[30:01] for the whole of 2025.
[30:03] So, and a bounce back with clearance rates, 73.8%.
[30:07] Again, around about 10% higher than the same week last year.
[30:11] Rachel, big numbers of auctions in Brisbane, 226 auctions, nearly 100 more, well, 50 more auctions than the week before.
[30:19] Higher clearance rate in Brisbane, anything over 50% in Brisbane is generating higher prices.
[30:24] But as we know, that Brisbane market is flying at the moment and just more positive signs with the auction market well hit where it was a year ago.
[30:32] Adelaide, same sort of results as the week before, similar auction numbers and similar clearance rates.
[30:38] And again, higher than where it was a year ago, as we explained about Adelaide.
[30:42] Adelaide just started to fall away at the end of last year.
[30:45] And we can see those comparisons validating that with auction clearance rate changes around about 10% higher now than where they were a year ago.
[30:54] And the Canberra market, steady in the mid to high 70s.
[30:59] Come off a little bit recently, but still relatively
[31:03] clearly in revival mode, that Canberra market.
[31:05] And we can see that where clearance rates are 20% higher in Canberra than where they were a year ago.
[31:11] We can see that same trend with all the capital cities now in terms of auction clearance rates, Rachel.
[31:17] Peeking over August, September, just easing as listing numbers come through.
[31:21] We see that every year.
[31:22] That's the seasonal effect.
[31:24] But as I said, with higher clearance rates, we'll be seeing high numbers of auctions.
[31:28] So that's Sydney.
[31:29] Similar result in Melbourne, although it picked up...
[31:32] This is obviously just the first week in November.
[31:34] We need a few more weeks to see how that trend consolidates, but still very much seller's results here.
[31:39] Anything over 65%, we can consider it being a seller's market there.
[31:45] Brisbane, big result there over the week for Brisbane.
[31:49] We've also been discussing how strong crisis growth for units and houses are in Brisbane, so no surprise.
[31:54] that its clearance rates are peaking.
[31:57] Adelaide, same sort of story as Melbourne and Sydney in terms of just easing a little bit and a similar trend that we see in Canberra.
[32:05] So we're still very much seller's markets in all the capital cities, Rachel.
[32:09] And if you're looking for the latest auction results, which are a very good forward indicator of what's happening generally in housing markets,
[32:16] You can get them at my LinkedIn channel, Doc Andrew Wilson, at LinkedIn every Saturday night at around 6 o'clock for the snapshot and on Sundays at around about 9 o'clock for the full national report, which includes the regional breakdowns for Melbourne and Sydney and the top 10 sales under the hammer for the week.
[32:33] So get a hold of that one.
[32:34] If you've missed it, there's a QR code.
[32:36] You can get the latest national weekly auction market report.
[32:41] from my housing market so let's finish off rachel with the biggest giveaway in housing as we say every week and it is the biggest giveaway in housing it is the my housing market infinity suburb price app for not just prices but also for rents there's a qr code which you can scan or you can click the link and you can get access to that but you have to contact the good folks at infinity
[33:05] that will tell you how to, or will give you the password or how to access the password to get hold of that app.
[33:12] And here's a screenshot for an app, great, put on your desktop, on your phone.
[33:16] You can keep up to date what's happening in every suburb in Australia that has prices.
[33:20] This is updated constantly.
[33:23] And this is for asking prices and asking rents.
[33:25] So it tells you what vendors and agents are currently asking for their properties in the marketplace.
[33:32] You can filter for price or rent,
[33:34] You can filter for the capital city region or the outside capital city region.
[33:38] We're looking here at Blacktown.
[33:40] You can also filter for house unit for townhouse and for the number of bedrooms.
[33:44] So you can really delve down into the nitty gritty of the market, Rachel, and not just the median asking price here, also the high and the low.
[33:54] So it just tells you the middle of the market.
[33:56] It also tells you the boundaries of the market, high and low and the number of properties for sale.
[34:01] Isn't that fabulous, Rachel?
[34:03] And you can do exactly the same thing for the rental market, which we've done there, which gives you the median asking rent and the low asking rent and the high asking rent and the number of properties that are currently for sale.
[34:14] If you're an investor and you're looking at return on investment, that is gross yields.
[34:17] We also provide gross yields, the top 10 gross yields for each of the regional breakdowns, ranked gross yields.
[34:25] So this does include personal costs, of course.
[34:33] the current asking price that gives you the annual return on investment.
[34:38] And also you have the vacancy rate for the suburb, the number of properties for rent and the number for sale.
[34:44] And if you click on the hot links there, it will actually tell you where these suburbs are.
[34:48] It gives you a lovely map there.
[34:50] So get a hold of that one.
[34:51] Get on to the good people at infinity and join the thousands who are using this great app as a great tool set for understanding what's happening in real time in the housing market.
[35:02] Okay, next week, Rachel, let's have a look at the latest home rent data for October.
[35:07] We'll also look at September home building approvals and the latest weekly auction results.
[35:12] So another big show, lots of interesting stuff.
[35:15] Can you believe those house price increases?
[35:18] And, yes, we can believe that the – it's amazing.
[35:20] It's amazing.
[35:22] And can you believe that the Reserve Bank left interest rates on hold?
[35:27] Well, I guess we can because we said that was likely to happen, most likely to happen.
[35:31] But I'm a little bemused by some of that commentary seriously.
[35:34] But we wait and see.
[35:35] We've got another meeting.
[35:37] We've got another Reserve Bank meeting in a month's time.
[35:40] So we'll see if anything changes then.
[35:42] So you have a great week, Rachel, going forward.
[35:47] And let's see what happens this week in property.
[35:52] Thank you, Doc.
[35:52] That was incredible information and you are right.
[35:54] That app is amazing.
[35:55] I got a little bit distracted playing with it myself just then.
[35:59] But it definitely feels like the gavel has been working in overtime.
[36:02] I'm not seeing a slowdown in sight.
[36:04] There is still a lot of demand.
[36:06] So, yeah, Adelaide, median house price, over a million now.
[36:11] It's crazy.
[36:12] And maybe higher than Melbourne soon.
[36:13] Maybe higher than Melbourne soon.
[36:16] Well, that wraps up.
[36:18] I know.
[36:18] That wraps up another episode of Wilson Weekly.
[36:21] Prices climbing, confidence returning, and the RBA holding firm.
[36:25] It's been a wild ride through 2025 so far.
[36:28] Thanks, as always, Doc, for the insights.
[36:31] I'm Rachel Howlett, and remember the numbers tell the story, but smart strategy writes the ending.
[36:35] We will catch you next week.
[36:37] Oh, lovely stuff.
[36:38] Yeah.
[36:38] Good on you, Rachel.

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