# WILSON WEEKLY Ep 145 | Spring Momentum: Property Prices Surge Into Summer

An episode of [Money Mentor Podcast™](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1632604767), 14 Nov 2025, 25 min.

Audio: https://episode.flightcast.com/cvf6xhv65cbo4acxkmk886ev.mp3

This week on Wilson Weekly, Rachael Howlett and Dr. Andrew Wilson come together live for a powerful, no filter discussion on what’s really driving Australia’s property market as we head into the end of 2025.From rising home prices across SA, Victoria, and Queensland to first home buyer FOMO and the impact of recent building approval shifts, the data tells a story of momentum that’s showing no signs of slowing down.Rachael and Doc cut through the noise to unpack the latest property data and what it means for homeowners and renters across the country. They also chat what Aussies can expect as the housing market powers into 2026. Discover our new tool: What's My Rental Home Yield? Money Mentor YouTube Channel: @moneymentorau Link to Dr. Andrew Wilson on LinkedIn: / dr-andrew. If you enjoyed our podcast, make sure you follow and subscribe to stay up to date with the latest episodes.

## Transcript

[0:00] Money isn't rude of all evil, the fucking lack of it is.
[0:02] Not money, the lack of understanding money.
[0:05] Welcome back to this week's episode of Wilson Weekly on the Money Mentor Podcast.
[0:10] I'm Rachel Howlett, your Money Mentor.
[0:13] This is a very special Wilson Weekly this week as we have Dr. Andrew Wilson live.
[0:18] We are together doing the podcast.
[0:21] We have a huge property market update to unpack and we're going to dive right in.
[0:25] Doc, welcome.
[0:26] Welcome.
[0:26] Thank you very much, Rachel, and it's great to be here.
[0:29] And we are now debunking the myth that we are just AI creations.
[0:33] No, we're real.
[0:33] We're real.
[0:34] Yeah, here we are.
[0:35] And it's another big week in property that we're going to delve into.
[0:39] And, of course, the year is running out very quickly.
[0:41] Very quickly.
[0:42] You know, sands in the hourglass, et cetera, those sort of things.
[0:44] And, of course, what, we've got six weeks till Christmas?
[0:48] Yeah, which is very scary.
[0:49] Or is it eight weeks till Christmas?
[0:50] But six weeks left in the property market.
[0:53] And as usual, latest with the property this week.
[0:58] Of course, every week we bring the latest property information to all our countless viewers and listeners.
[1:04] And in conjunction, my housing market with the good folks at Infinity.
[1:10] Yeah.
[1:11] And we'll have, as usual, our great giveaway, our Property Market app as a giveaway.
[1:15] But shall we get started?
[1:17] Yeah, let's work right in.
[1:18] Yeah, another big week in property.
[1:20] Of course, it is the week ending November the 12th.
[1:22] We're going to be speaking about October home rents, as well as the September building approvals, and as usual, the auction results for the past week.
[1:33] So let's have a look at building approvals to start with.
[1:36] If you remember last...
[1:38] Last month we had our second consecutive month of falling building approvals.
[1:43] We've had a bounce back over September, building approvals up quite strongly over the month, up by 12.5%, on the back of a big rise in apartment approvals.
[1:56] Apartments up by, can you believe, 26%, Rachel?
[2:01] and houses were up by 1.5%.
[2:04] Now, it's good news because it is the first rise in two months, but we are coming from a lower base in terms of that increase.
[2:13] And as we know, we have a problem in Australia.
[2:16] We don't have enough houses to go around under supplied housing markets.
[2:20] Part of the reason why we do have higher prices, underlying prices growth, not just lower interest rates.
[2:27] Now, that increase, that big increase in apartments came as a result of, that was 26% increase as a result of a big development going through in Melbourne over September.
[2:38] and Melbourne was the leading state, courtesy of those apartment approvals, up by 41% of building approvals for homes in Melbourne over the month.
[2:48] But just looking into the numbers, Rachel, I think that as we see every month with our building approval data, it's been all about units this year.
[2:58] There's no doubt that state governments have been activated, particularly Melbourne and Sydney, to produce more building approvals for units, and that means easing some of the planning restrictions that have kept back higher density development for units in Melbourne and Sydney.
[3:14] And if we look at the year to date nationally, we can see that building approvals for units are up 40.2%.
[3:21] That's a lot of units.
[3:23] and over the year to year comparisons up by 34%.
[3:27] The houses are not performing as well as units.
[3:33] Houses up by 1.9% over the year to date, and up 2.4% over the year on year.
[3:37] So it's been all about units.
[3:44] the improvement in building approvals this year.
[3:47] And that has been because state governments have been expediting particularly planning approvals for higher density development.
[3:56] So when we look at the breakdowns in terms of the trend,
[4:01] We can see trends just starting to pick up when we look at the national trend.
[4:06] And this is the month-on-month trends, certainly tracking ahead of where we were at the same month last year, September last year.
[4:16] But, you know, Rachel, when we multiply out the monthly numbers, we're still under 200,000 a year, sort of annualised numbers.
[4:26] And that's been the target that, you know, the government had set for, in fact, I think the target was 240,000 units a year in terms of building approvals.
[4:36] So we're still well behind.
[4:37] Well, for total homes.
[4:38] So we're still not.
[4:39] on target to match what the authorities have been hoping to produce in terms of building approvals.
[4:48] And when we see the breakdowns between houses and units, you can see just how flat the trend for houses is or has been.
[4:57] A pickup in units, but not at the same level we've had earlier in the year.
[5:01] So some better signs for building approvals nationally.
[5:05] but still a long way to go in terms of catching up with what we need.
[5:10] When we look at the breakdown for the various capital cities, as usual, Melbourne leads the charge with building approvals for homes.
[5:19] But what we're seeing now is that Sydney has caught up with Melbourne this year.
[5:23] Melbourne was tracking higher in terms of building approvals for units this year compared to the same period last year.
[5:30] Earlier in the year, but now Sydney's caught up.
[5:34] with Melbourne in terms of overall development.
[5:39] Now, I think it's really interesting when we look at the breakdowns in terms of capital city by capital city approvals for houses.
[5:50] Isn't that interesting, Rachel, that we can see that both Melbourne and Brisbane are actually not approvals
[5:55] improving the number of houses so far this year they did for the same period last year.
[6:02] So big demand markets, particularly that Brisbane market, which we know is almost, we could say, in boom mode, is still not building enough houses to keep up with demand.
[6:12] So a few of them know are building over the same period last year.
[6:16] But when we look at the
[6:18] Development profile for capital cities for units.
[6:22] We can see a big difference there in terms of the number of units approved versus the same period last year.
[6:30] Sydney up by 63.3%.
[6:32] Melbourne up 27.4%.
[6:34] Brisbane up 42.1%.
[6:36] So really it is a story of a surge in unit development, really overwhelming the number of houses that are being approved.
[6:46] Now, look, that's great.
[6:47] It does show we're providing more supply.
[6:51] But the problem is that in the shorter term, we're not going to see that translated into actual completions.
[6:57] Of course, it takes two or three years for those unit approvals to turn into completions.
[7:02] ready to live in property.
[7:04] So when we look at the big picture, and this tells us the story of why we are an undersupplied housing market, even though that trend is now starting to pick up the national capital city trend, and this is the year-by-year on a month-by-month basis, we're still 26% down on our peak way back in 2015 and 2016.
[7:25] So some way to go.
[7:26] And when we look at
[7:27] for houses and units in terms of that annual trend.
[7:31] You can see that pickup that we've had over the past 12 months in terms of unit approvals, but still well below, in fact, 40% below where we were at the peak.
[7:42] A start, but certainly a long way to go.
[7:45] And maybe this is the beginning of a more sustained period of unit development.
[7:52] But when we look at houses, a better picture there in terms of houses, but we can see there that house trend has really started to fall away over recent months.
[8:02] So work to do.
[8:06] in terms of resupplying our housing market.
[8:10] The other big news we had this week, of course, was the October rent report.
[8:14] Of course, when we're having constraint of supply, it means that it works its way into, obviously, our major markets, such as rental markets and sale markets.
[8:26] Shortage of property can mean higher rents, of course, as demand continues to pick up.
[8:32] But we did have rental markets tighten quite significantly over October.
[8:36] The reason we saw that tightening was that we see an increase in demand for tenancies through October.
[8:41] It tends to be quieter in the middle of the year into September, but we see higher demand as people move towards securing property before the end of the year for a tenancy.
[8:52] And we did see most capital city vacancy rates falling for both houses and units, although rents were more or less...
[9:01] stable over the month.
[9:03] I think that eventually we're going to see higher rents as a result of those lower vacancy rates.
[9:09] So just looking at the numbers, Sydney, as usual, has the highest rentals for houses at $800 asking rents per week.
[9:20] Most of the capital cities were flat over the month.
[9:24] The exception was Darwin, which is almost in boom mode, that Darwin market, up by 2% over the month.
[9:30] But Adelaide and Hobart fell marginally by 0.4% and 0.6% respectively.
[9:39] But I think the really interesting numbers there are the vacancy rates, Rachel.
[9:45] All vacancy rates are well below 2%.
[9:48] In fact, are either just above 1% or below 1%.
[9:51] And that's a very low vacancy rate, near record low vacancy rates.
[9:56] And the trend over the month was mostly down for those capital city markets.
[10:01] So still a tough ask for tenants looking for a house to rent.
[10:05] And same sort of story with units.
[10:09] Sydney, again, the most expensive market to rent a unit, $750 median asking rent, and the most affordable Hobart at $469 a week to rent a unit.
[10:22] Again, rents either a little lower or flat over the month in most capitals.
[10:27] Rental growth has been a little higher for units over the year compared to houses.
[10:31] But again, even though vacancy rates are slightly higher than houses over October, still certainly in favour of landlords there.
[10:42] Only really Melbourne and Canberra have the highest vacancy rates, but still at 2% there and falling.
[10:50] They're still suggesting a shortage of houses to rent in those two capitals.
[10:54] But the other capital cities...
[10:55] Again, similar to houses, either just above 1% or below 1% and the trend falling as it did for houses.
[11:04] So if you're looking for a copy of that, our latest, the My Housing Market October rent report, there's a QR code.
[11:11] As usual, Rachel, you can scan that and get a PDF copy of the code.
[11:16] So tough times in the rental market continuing, although we still don't have rental growth.
[11:23] Well, like you said, the supply is well behind the demand at the moment.
[11:27] We have started to see the building approvals go up.
[11:30] Once we get an approval, we still have to wait for the build.
[11:32] But do you think longer term, if we see that building approval trend increase, will that ease the rental squeeze?
[11:37] Well, theoretically, it should, Rachel.
[11:39] But the point is that we've got such a long way to go to catch up.
[11:44] Maybe it's mission impossible, really, to be able to speculate that we'll finally be able to...
[11:49] find enough supply to match demand in our housing markets.
[11:53] But certainly it's a good start.
[11:56] And state governments are obviously still very active in promoting higher density development.
[12:01] They have relaxed some of the planning restrictions.
[12:04] But as you said, we're still years away from that turning into, even with today's data or the latest data,
[12:10] to turning into sort of build completions.
[12:14] But, and rental markets are, you know, continuing.
[12:17] I think the interesting thing with the rental market is that we still have low vacancy rates.
[12:22] They fluctuate from month to month according to seasonal factors.
[12:27] But we're not seeing rental increases as a result of those low vacancy rates.
[12:31] I think there's still affordability issues in our rental markets.
[12:35] You know, we've seen significant rises over the past two or three years
[12:39] in rents following the opening of borders through the post-COVID period.
[12:46] But I think that affordability barriers are still holding back rental increases, despite the fact that there's plenty of competition for rental properties out there.
[12:58] As those low vacancy rates indicate, I think it's only really a matter of time before we do see higher rents coming through.
[13:06] So not really good news there for tenants, even with flat rents.
[13:11] Yeah.
[13:11] It's still a really tough ask to secure a rental property now.
[13:15] Plenty of competition.
[13:17] And even though landlords aren't seeing the rental increases generally, they'd be pretty happy with the way capital growth has gone this year.
[13:24] Yeah, absolutely.
[13:25] So shall we have a look at the latest auction market data?
[13:29] Of course, we're now heading towards the end of the auction season.
[13:34] We've got six weeks to go before the market closes down.
[13:38] We are now at the peak period in terms of auction activity, auction market activity.
[13:44] This is where we typically see a lot of supply coming into the market.
[13:48] All our distractions have gone.
[13:49] Of course, last week was the Melbourne Cup long weekend holiday.
[13:53] Probably some celebrations happening in other countries.
[13:56] in other states and capitals as well.
[13:58] But we've now got the distractions behind us.
[14:00] You know, we've had the Cup weekend, various public holidays in other capital cities.
[14:07] And of course, you know, the football finals, these scenarios have worked their way through the system.
[14:11] So we have sort of a clear run now for the next six weeks.
[14:15] And typically we do see a lot of supply coming into the market.
[14:19] But clearance rates are still holding up.
[14:22] So this shows there's still plenty of depth in our auction markets.
[14:28] But what we see typically this time of the year as the market starts to wind down is an easing in clearance rates.
[14:35] But with the big supply, we're actually seeing high numbers of sales.
[14:38] So even though clearance rates are easing,
[14:42] slightly.
[14:43] The big numbers of auctions coming into or properties for auction coming into the market means that sales numbers are actually rising.
[14:50] So plenty of sales happening out there.
[14:54] And of course, the decision by the Reserve Bank to put...
[14:58] to have interest rates on hold.
[14:59] It's sort of a positive, given that there was some, even though it was slightly nonsensical predictions, that the Reserve Bank may increase interest rates at its last meeting.
[15:08] I don't think that's really a prospect going forward.
[15:10] So let's have a look at the numbers, big numbers of Sydney.
[15:14] Over the week ending November the 8th, 1534 auctions.
[15:17] Similar clearance rate, another good clearance rate there for sellers, 73.6%.
[15:23] And clearance rates, as with most of the capitals, are tracking well ahead of where they were at the same week last year, which is another sign of how the market has progressed over the past 12 months.
[15:33] Melbourne, of course, bounced back after its break for the Melbourne Cup long weekend, 1345 auctions in Melbourne, up from 595.
[15:42] Another solid result in terms of the clearance rate, 70.5% clearance rate.
[15:47] And similar to Sydney, you can see the Melbourne market tracking the best part of 10% higher than where it was a year ago in terms of the clearance rate.
[15:56] Big weekend in Brisbane, 204 auctions.
[15:59] As we say every week, anything around or above 50% in the clearance rate in Brisbane is a positive in terms of sellers and translates more likely into higher prices.
[16:10] Again, the Brisbane market well ahead of where it was a year ago.
[16:13] Adelaide back up to 80% clearance rate, which we're sort of used to seeing...
[16:18] in Adelaide week after week, but it has been a little quieter over the past month, but 80% clearance rate in Adelaide of 155 auctions.
[16:29] Canberra continuing its revival, a little bit lower than the week before, 64% versus 67%.
[16:35] And again, just reflecting the growth of the markets over the past 12 months, Canberra's well ahead of where it was a year ago.
[16:44] And when we look at the trends today,
[16:46] As usual, they're all the same.
[16:47] Just as I said, Rachel, they're tracking a little bit lower than the last couple of months but still very much in favour of sellers.
[16:57] So the Sydney market, 73.9% so far over November.
[17:01] Same story with Melbourne.
[17:03] You can see the pick-up there in all of these monthly charts, Rachel, from the lower interest rates in February.
[17:09] But just as I said, easing with those seasonal impacts again.
[17:14] over the past two months, but still in favour of sellers.
[17:18] Brisbane picking up a little bit so far this month compared to October.
[17:22] Similar story there.
[17:23] Adelaide also picking up compared to October.
[17:27] And the Canberra market still within a revival mode, but tracking a little bit lower than where it was in the early spring period.
[17:35] So if you're looking for...
[17:36] The latest auction results every Saturday night is the Capital City Snapshot at around about 6 o'clock on my LinkedIn account, which is Doc Andrew Wilson at LinkedIn.
[17:48] And you can get the full national report every Sunday morning at around 9 o'clock, which includes...
[17:54] the regional breakdowns for Melbourne and Sydney, and the top 10 sales under the hammer over the week.
[18:00] So look out for that one, Rachel.
[18:02] But if you've missed it, there is a QR code which will give you a PDF copy of our latest National Weekly Auction Market Report.
[18:11] Now, the biggest giveaway in property, which is how we end up, and that's the My Housing Market Suburb Data app.
[18:17] We talk a lot about our capital city markets here, but of course we're wanting to provide insights into what's happening on a suburb basis.
[18:24] So we provide that here with our suburb data app brought to you in conjunction with the good folks at Infinity.
[18:35] And this provides real-time data on a suburb basis for asking prices and asking rents.
[18:43] If you want access to the app, there is a QR code and also a hot link there to the app.
[18:49] You will have to, however, get a password from the good folks at Infinity.
[18:56] Yep.
[18:56] I'm only too happy to give you that.
[18:58] And as I said, it's the best giveaway in property.
[19:00] So get a hold of that one.
[19:02] There's a screenshot of the app.
[19:05] You can put it on your desktop or put it on your phone.
[19:10] And you can filter for either price or rent.
[19:14] You can filter it for the state capital city region or the outside capital city region.
[19:19] We're looking here at the Sydney capital city region and the suburb of Blacktown.
[19:24] You can filter it for house unit or townhouse and also the number of beds.
[19:29] So we're looking here at a four bedroom house in Blacktown.
[19:32] Blacktown and it shows you not just the median asking price, and these are asking prices, so they're telling you what the agents and vendors are expecting for their properties on the market as it is now.
[19:46] So not just the median price but also the high and the low price.
[19:49] So you can see the difference between the range of prices that are being expected.
[19:56] in the market currently.
[19:57] And the number of properties for sale, same thing there for the rental market, Rachel.
[20:02] Median rent there, $750 for a four bedroom house in Blacktown, low of $375 and a high of $850.
[20:10] A number of properties for rent currently, $13.
[20:14] And that four bedroom houses of course in Blacktown.
[20:17] And for investors out there, we also show the looking for return on investment on a suburb basis.
[20:22] And of course, what this does is looks at the annualised rent and divides that into the current asking price to give you the gross yield.
[20:34] And then we rank it in terms of the top 10 suburb on the particular regions that you're filtering it for.
[20:40] And not just the yields, but also the current vacancy rate, the number of properties for rent,
[20:45] and the number of properties for sale.
[20:46] So that was all very exciting, wasn't it, Rachel?
[20:49] Always.
[20:50] It's a bit different doing it live, but we'll get used to that eventually.
[20:54] But next week we've got some important data.
[20:56] Of course, the October labour market data, which is coming out a little earlier this month.
[21:00] A lot of talk about the direction of interest rates going forward.
[21:06] And, of course, last September labour market data was a little underwhelming.
[21:10] We saw the unemployment rate rising.
[21:14] So I'm interested to see if that trend continues and that will, of course, add to the conversation on where interest rates are going.
[21:20] September home loans.
[21:21] These are September quarter loans.
[21:23] We used to have a monthly September loan loan,
[21:27] model from the ABS, but they've now gone to quarterly data.
[21:30] But it'll show us breakdowns in terms of buyer types so we can see how investor activity and first-home buyer activity is happening in terms of home loans.
[21:40] And as usual, the latest weekly auction results.
[21:44] So if you missed this week's report, there's a QR code.
[21:46] You can download that and get a PDF copy of all this exciting information.
[21:51] And until next week, I guess...
[21:53] It's done and dusted again.
[21:55] Done and dusted.
[21:56] That packed an absolute punch, Doc.
[21:57] Well, it did, yes.
[21:58] I still want to ask you one more question.
[22:00] We've seen a very strong property market this year overall, particularly South Australia, Victoria and Queensland, Brisbane, flowing down into the Gold Coast.
[22:10] And you, Seth, whilst.
[22:11] Of course.
[22:11] I mean, Sydney's always been very robust and that flows all the way up until, well, I suppose Gold Coast is really helping northern New South Wales now as well.
[22:20] Do we still see that these are going to be quite strong markets going into Christmas and the new year?
[22:24] I don't think it's slowing down.
[22:26] Well, it hasn't slowed down since we're seeing more volume.
[22:28] Of course, people want to get buying and selling done by Christmas.
[22:32] So it has that sort of added sense of urgency because the market closes down really until early February, except for some of the...
[22:38] the regional holiday market.
[22:40] So, yeah, and I think we've got those first home buyers that have come into the market over October, courtesy of the federal government's first home buyer scheme.
[22:49] There's lots of FOMO now happening in the market, fear of missing out because of higher prices.
[22:54] Um,
[22:56] So, you know, there's a lot of energy in the market.
[22:58] I still think we've got buying capacity from lower interest rates, driving higher prices.
[23:04] I don't think that's worked its way through the system.
[23:07] And I would expect not only a good finish to the year, and we'll see, of course, as we bring you more auction clearance rates, just how the market's going, but I also think it will be a good start, a good springboard to next year as well.
[23:19] And as we know, and we will speak about, so look out for that, the year in prospect next year.
[23:24] Yep.
[23:26] but I think that we always tend to finish the year or start the year where we finish the year off, and I don't think there's any doubt that we're going to finish the year off as strongly as our latest data is showing.
[23:36] So it's all looking very positive for our homeowners.
[23:39] That's right.
[23:40] Not so much for the first home buyers that have a lot of competition at the moment.
[23:44] Well, competition in our housing markets is what we expect, whether you're renting or buying.
[23:50] And we just need more properties, don't we?
[23:53] Yeah.
[23:53] A good start this month, but we need more.
[23:56] Well, those building approvals, that's a good positive sign, but do we really see that's going to be a trend?
[24:02] Yeah, well, it's still not anywhere near what we need.
[24:05] And we need, as you said, to see the trend picking up.
[24:07] Yeah.
[24:08] Awesome.
[24:08] Well, Doc, that was an absolutely solid session.
[24:11] There you have it.
[24:12] Wilson Weekly Live.
[24:13] That was a lot of fun.
[24:14] Hopefully we get to do that a little bit more often.
[24:17] We will be back next week where we are breaking down the labour market data and,
[24:21] our September loan data, and also what the property market will be doing as we go into summer.
[24:25] Thanks for tuning in.

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