# WILSON WEEKLY Ep 138 | Inflation, Interest Rates & Super Saturday Auction Insights

An episode of [Money Mentor Podcast™](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1632604767), 26 Sep 2025, 29 min.

Audio: https://episode.flightcast.com/rjslidbdyw45r6ylqt6j2pfv.mp3

Episode Description: In this week’s episode of Wilson Weekly, Dr. Andrew Wilson breaks down the latest economic data shaping Australia’s property and financial outlook. He unpacks the August inflation figures, explaining how surging electricity costs and shifting fuel prices are putting upward pressure on household budgets and what that means for the Reserve Bank’s next interest rate decisions. The discussion also covers Australia’s resilient labor market, with unemployment steady at historically low levels, and dives into auction results from “Super Saturday,” where Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Canberra all showed strong clearance rates. Dr. Wilson highlights how lower interest rates have boosted confidence and activity across the housing market while warning that rising energy costs could dampen future gains. The episode wraps up with a look ahead to September home price data, migration updates, and the RBA’s next move plus some lighthearted AFL Grand Final predictions to close out a big week in property and economics. Discover our new tool: What's My Rental Home Yield? Money Mentor YouTube Channel: @moneymentorau Link to Dr. Andrew Wilson on LinkedIn: / dr-andrew. If you enjoyed our podcast, make sure you follow and subscribe to stay up to date with the latest episodes.

## Transcript

[0:00] Unfortunately, we're going to expect to see another spike in our household electricity bills.
[0:07] Not as much as it could be because we're still getting a government handout to offset that, but it's nowhere near as much, in fact, it's half as much as we had last year.
[0:16] And as I said, electricity prices are still rising organically as we're in this sort of transition from...
[0:24] the carbon economy into a renewables environment.
[0:28] But the point is that there's clearly upward pressure on inflation, headline inflation.
[0:36] And, you know, as I said, that's not looking good in terms of the interest rate environment.
[0:42] We've still got the September results to come.
[0:47] So I think that's also unlikely to be any relief.
[0:51] So I think the outlook is fine.
[0:53] Higher inflation.
[0:54] Money isn't the root of all evil.
[0:56] The fucking lack of it is.
[0:57] Not money.
[0:58] The lack of understanding money.
[1:00] When I put that into emphasis, when I realized our psychological effect and how it hit our family, I FDB in the fucking way.
[1:06] You are now watching the Money Mentor Podcast with Graham Holm.
[1:10] Graham Holm.
[1:10] Graham Holm.
[1:15] Money Mentor Podcast.
[1:17] I'm Brandon Robinson.
[1:18] Today I've got obviously Dr. Andrew Wilson who's going to take us through some economics for us all.
[1:25] Hi, Brandon.
[1:25] Yes, good to be back here again.
[1:29] We've headed well through September.
[1:31] I always give the, I guess, the calendar update to start these things.
[1:35] But we've got a big weekend coming up now, and that's the AFL Grand Final and other finals around the place.
[1:43] So it's going to be a distracted weekend.
[1:45] We'll look at the latest auction results.
[1:47] And, of course, last week was Super Saturday as we terminated it, termed it, but maybe not, well, Super Saturday, but how do we call that, Super Saturday?
[1:58] Wow of a week because a lot of data or a lot of listings were brought forward to avoid the clash, particularly the AFL Grand Final coming up this week.
[2:07] So we'll look at those latest results.
[2:09] But we've had some hot off the press results in terms of what is important.
[2:16] the outlook for interest rates.
[2:17] And today we had the August inflation data released by the ABS.
[2:22] Of course, next week the RBA will meet.
[2:25] I think even with this data that we've had released, the monthly data, which the ABS...
[2:31] doesn't tend to look at as closely as it does the quarterly data, will not have any significant implications for, I believe, will be an on-pause, a hold decision on interest rates over the month of September.
[2:46] But nonetheless, it was very interesting for the prospects going forward for this.
[2:50] for interest rates.
[2:51] So if we can get our slide deck up, we'll start to go through all the latest data, Brandon.
[2:58] Of course, my housing market brings you the podcast every week, Wilson Workley in conjunction with the good folks at Infinity, all about the current state
[3:06] and future prospects of your housing market.
[3:09] And, of course, as I've already mentioned, that importantly reflects on what's happening with interest rates.
[3:14] We've had a really strong past six months in our housing markets, particularly the past three months, particularly the last one month given lower interest rates.
[3:24] Of course, we had a fall in February followed up by a fall in May and another one in August.
[3:30] As I said, I'm not so sure we'll get a fall in the September forecast
[3:35] interest rate, official interest rate.
[3:37] But all eyes will turn to, as usual, the Melbourne Cup decision at the beginning of November in terms of perhaps the likelihood or the possibility of another cut to interest rates.
[3:49] But inflation isn't actually...
[3:52] isn't actually performing according to, I guess, the preferred position of the RBA.
[3:59] And that's what the data will show us today.
[4:01] So it is the week to Wednesday, week ending Wednesday, September the 24th, which, of course, is the last week for week in September.
[4:10] Yeah, that's gone so far, September.
[4:12] This week we're going to look at the latest inflation rate for August, the latest labour market increase
[4:19] data for August, which of course is also important for interest rate settings.
[4:26] The RBA's brief is to keep underlying inflation within the
[4:34] within the target range of 2% to 3% annually, and that is the growth over a year.
[4:40] And they're looking at full employment as their target for the labour market.
[4:44] The labour market's been performing pretty well for the past couple of years post-COVID, or post the COVID period, and the inflation rate has certainly been going down, down and down,
[4:56] until recently and this is what we'll look at today as well as the latest weekly auction results given the big numbers of auctions that came in last saturday particularly being super saturday so monthly inflation has risen again yes hello hello but there are reasons for this and it's reasons that will continue to put upward pressure on uh on inflation going forward which uh
[5:21] sort of puts a spanner in the works for those hoping for a lower interest rate.
[5:26] Certainly in the shorter term, it starts to question whether we will get another interest rate cut this year.
[5:31] But there is plenty of time, there's plenty of data to come through that.
[5:36] So plenty of water to go under the bridge before that, particularly that November decision.
[5:41] But the data today wasn't especially positive in terms of...
[5:46] the recent trend of falling inflation.
[5:50] Actually headline inflation was up to 3%.
[5:52] We have two specific measures of inflation, headline inflation, which measures all the basket of goods that the ABS determines make up what we purchase for our household budgets.
[6:06] And then we have underlying inflation, which takes out the volatile elements of those basket of goods that we typically have within our household budget.
[6:18] So headline inflation up to 3%.
[6:20] So we've really seen a revival in headline inflation.
[6:24] over the past couple of months, up from July's 2.8%, and now right on the edge of the target range.
[6:32] But that target range is for underlying inflation, which actually came down at 2.6% compared to 2.8% the previous month.
[6:41] Now, okay, that's good because it's the underlying inflation that the RBA focuses on.
[6:48] But the point is that it's taken out the volatile elements that...
[6:51] And those volatile elements are including specifically the price of electricity.
[6:58] And that's been the big change in our inflation profile recently, is the fact that we're now seeing a rebound, a sharp rebound in electricity prices.
[7:09] The reason is, Brandon, because the government subsidy, which was announced in last year's budget,
[7:15] which was $300 a year for each household's electricity bill.
[7:17] That finished on the 1st of July, so it went for the previous financial year.
[7:31] And of course, don't get that relief.
[7:33] It means obviously prices are going to rise because we don't have that government handout.
[7:38] It has been replaced by another supplement, but that supplement is half what the previous one was.
[7:46] So it's $150 a week.
[7:47] I think it's $150 a week now, not a week, $150 a year rather than the $300 a year.
[7:55] But it's only going to run for six months, Brandon.
[7:58] So it runs out at the end of this year.
[8:02] So after that, well, all bets are off because electricity prices, which I don't think we've got that under control, irrespective of the government handouts, will continue to rise organically, but they'll appear higher because we won't have the benefit of that government handout.
[8:19] Now, it is an important factor in terms of measuring the unemployment rate.
[8:23] It has been the fall in electricity prices over the past 18 months that have allowed the underlying inflation rate to get within the target range of the RBA, which has allowed them to cut interest rates.
[8:38] But that's looking like it might be a vanishing factor in terms of the future.
[8:45] So...
[8:47] We had an annual rise of 13.6% over July in the cost of electricity.
[8:52] And this is showing exactly what I just said.
[8:55] And that has now gone to an annual rise of 24.6% over the, so 24.6% increase in electricity costs over the past year to August, which is obviously significantly higher than that 13.6% over July.
[9:11] And if we cast our mind back to June, we actually had another fall in the price of electricity, which we've been seeing, as I said, for the past financial year due to those government handouts.
[9:23] So government handouts, the big one's finished.
[9:26] We've got a smaller one now.
[9:28] It will continue, obviously, to have an impact on electricity prices.
[9:32] Unfortunately, we're going to expect to see another spike in our household electricity bills.
[9:40] Not as much as it could be because we're still getting a government handout to offset that, but it's nowhere near as much.
[9:46] In fact, it's half as much as we had last year.
[9:49] And as I said, electricity prices are still rising organically as we're in this sort of transition from,
[9:57] the carbon economy into a renewables environment.
[10:00] So this actually adds some issues in terms of the prognostications for the RBA for interest rates, because they have said that they are, their target is, or they're wanting to see the target range consistently met.
[10:19] That is in the midpoint of two to 3%, which is 2.5%.
[10:23] We're still there now, but the point is that there's clearly upward pressure on inflation, headline inflation, inflation,
[10:32] And, you know, as I said, that's not looking good in terms of the interest rate environment.
[10:39] But we've still got the September results to come.
[10:44] So I think that's also unlikely to be any relief.
[10:48] So I think the outlook is for higher inflation.
[10:51] As the volatile elements are taken out of it, and electricity is one of those in the shorter term, that may mean that underlying inflation increases.
[10:59] is reasonably steady, but that's not going to really...
[11:03] The RBA will understand that we've got this underlying surge, a potential surge in electricity prices, which is going to put upward pressure on inflation going forward.
[11:15] We also had...
[11:17] A turnaround again in the price of fuel.
[11:19] That wasn't good news either.
[11:21] We had a fall of 5.5% recorded over July in the annual price of petrol.
[11:27] But that's now gone, still a fall, but only 1.7%.
[11:32] So fuel, which has also been a significant driver of lower inflation,
[11:39] is not adding to lower inflation as it was.
[11:42] However, rents improved again.
[11:44] We've seen an improvement in rental growth, annual rental growth, now down to 3.7% compared to 3.9%.
[11:56] So the question is the Reserve Bank will need to absorb rent
[12:01] you know, the latest data and it's okay, still within the target range, but it will be very mindful that there's likely to be higher electricity costs in the outlook and this will add to inflation going forward.
[12:15] So we can see the breakdown there, you can see the big difference in the monthly
[12:19] changes in electricity, up nearly 25% over the year to August, compared to 13.6% over the year to July.
[12:29] Fuel also not as good as it was, down 1.7%, compared to an annual fall of 5.5%.
[12:34] Rents down to 3.7%, so an improvement there, compared to 3.9%.
[12:38] But overall, reflecting...
[12:44] the deterioration in fuel prices and electricity prices, headline inflation increased to 3%.
[12:54] But when we look at the underlying result, you can see there that it has tracked downwards from 2.7% to 2.6%, which is an improvement, still in the middle of the target band.
[13:05] But one would suggest that given the likelihood of a higher trend in inflation,
[13:15] to rise on the back of particularly higher electricity costs in the future.
[13:20] So some interesting data.
[13:23] Really, we predicted this, Brandon, it was once these subsidies were relaxed that we were going to see higher electricity prices, which would work their way into higher inflation.
[13:35] So there's some interesting conversations to be had, I guess, when we look at what the RBA discusses.
[13:42] in terms of their decision next week, next Tuesday, on for the September interest rate decision.
[13:51] So we've also seen oil tracking.
[13:54] As I said, oil is an important factor in the inflation rate.
[14:00] The significant fall in the price of oil through the post-COVID period has pushed inflation down.
[14:05] We can track where annual oil prices have gone, and that is down 15.2% over August compared to July.
[14:15] So not a strong trend.
[14:17] result as we saw with the results there when we see the tracking of oil prices.
[14:23] And that we can see in terms of what oil prices are doing now.
[14:28] And they're sort of steady and they're still a little lower than where they were a year ago.
[14:36] Um, but given that we had a surge in the second half of last year, uh, in oil prices, that may start to have a positive effect on lower inflation if we maintain the current steadiness in the oil price, but that's a mug's game predicting where oil is going to go.
[14:53] Um, but, uh,
[14:54] Certainly, I think that that might have a more positive impact on lower inflation over the next couple of months, given that oil prices increased in September, October last year.
[15:05] So we may get an improvement there.
[15:07] But nonetheless, the real game now has sort of switched to electricity away from oil.
[15:13] And the other interesting point, Brandon, is the US cut its interest rates last week for the first time this year.
[15:20] Yeah.
[15:21] But the US is actually seeing an uptick in inflation as well for other reasons.
[15:27] But certainly it cut its interest rates because its labor market is showing some signs of fatigue and it decided it needed to stimulate its economy with lower interest rates to help out the labor market.
[15:40] So we have a different situation here, I would suggest, because our latest labour market data was released last week.
[15:49] Of course, I said that the Reserve Bank focuses on inflation, getting within that target range of 2% to 3% and maintaining it.
[15:56] And also the other focus is on the labour market, and that is inflation.
[16:00] to have a strong, robust, full employment labour market.
[16:04] And we've certainly had that for a number of years in this country.
[16:08] And it remains strong.
[16:10] The August unemployment rate was steady at 4.2%, even though that's a little higher than where we were today.
[16:18] most months last year, it's still historically a low unemployment rate.
[16:24] Jobs fell 5,000 over the month with the number of unemployed also down about 1,000.
[16:30] So that sort of matched each other.
[16:32] The interesting statistic was that the participation rate was also lower.
[16:38] It's been at very high levels, the participation rate.
[16:41] of course, the participation rate measures the proportion of the potential workforce, that is, those that identify as being either in work or looking for work, compared to those that are in work.
[16:53] And that has been at historically high levels over the past couple of years in the post-COVID period.
[16:59] But it just eased down a little bit.
[17:02] And that's what kept the jobless rate steady, even though jobs were down by that 5,000.
[17:08] So, yeah.
[17:10] Western Australia was the lowest in terms of the unemployment rate.
[17:13] And of course, the lower interest rates that we've had this year, particularly that August cut, will continue to stimulate our labour market, putting more, because those interest rate cuts puts more money in mortgage holders' pockets and they go out and spend it.
[17:27] And of course, that adds to economic activity.
[17:30] But the offset to that, Brandon, is maybe we've got to pay a little bit more for electricity.
[17:36] you know, what you've saved on the mortgage, you might be having to fork out on your electricity bill.
[17:42] So that's sort of a balancing act at the moment.
[17:45] You can see there the unemployment rate, 4.2%, just up a little bit from where it was over August last year, at 4.1%.
[17:53] But you can see that's still quite low in terms of the historical record and not too far above where we were during periods of very strong activity.
[18:01] such as the great mining boom of the noughties there.
[18:05] You can see way back in 2007, 2008, we had an unemployment rate of 4%, which is just a little bit lower than where we are now.
[18:14] And as I mentioned, even though the participation rate dropped down a little bit, it's still at historically high levels and well above where it was back in 2008.
[18:24] that very strong period, as I mentioned before, in the noughties, the great mining boom back in 2008, tracking well above that in terms of the participation rate.
[18:34] So nothing to get too excited about in terms of the labour market, Brandon.
[18:42] I would suggest that the RBA would be pretty comfortable there, maybe some very early signs
[18:49] of some weakening, but from a very high base nonetheless with near record participation rate and a historically low unemployment rate.
[18:58] So nothing there to influence the RBA's decision as it's different to the US, which had some underperformance in its labour market recently, which has been certainly the principal part of the decision to cut rates in the US going forward.
[19:13] So as I said, I think we'll get a steady as she goes result next week.
[19:19] from the RBA, but certainly they'll be looking very closely at the next lot of inflation data before they make their decision on Melbourne Cup Day on November 2nd coming up, which was, as I said, anticipated perhaps to be.
[19:36] All things were panning out to be an interest rate cut.
[19:38] But looking a little bit less certain now with that higher inflation rate.
[19:45] And we can see there the state unemployment rates.
[19:47] They're still quite low.
[19:49] Western Australia, the top performer there at 3.8%.
[19:53] And South Australia, the underperformer there,
[19:55] at 4.9% of volatile result for South Australia, given it was just 3.9% over August last year.
[20:02] So let's, Brandon, have a look at the latest auction results to finish off.
[20:07] And as I mentioned before, it was Super Saturday in most of our capital city auction markets last week.
[20:15] A lot of activities brought forward the week before
[20:18] the AFL Grand Final, and it is consistent amongst all the capital city markets that we see that.
[20:25] Agents like to avoid the distraction of the Grand Finals and the other football finals.
[20:32] So we get a lot of property activity.
[20:34] It's the first Super Saturday of the spring season.
[20:39] But next week, of course, we get the other side of that coin.
[20:43] And that is we'll see low numbers
[20:47] But, you know, typically high listing numbers, you know, the law of supply and demand result in more competition.
[20:55] Well, they do more competition for sellers because there's more properties for sale, but more choices for buyers.
[21:00] So they can put downward pressure theoretically on auction clearance rates
[21:04] And that's why we look at them closely because it does give us a clear sign of the energy of the cycle, if I could call it that, the property cycle, as it is tested by big numbers of auctions.
[21:16] So this is the results, big numbers in Sydney, 1,153 auctions, a higher clearance rate.
[21:21] So that's Sydney markets rip roaring along, 78% clearance rate up from the week before.
[21:27] and nearly 10% higher than the same week last year.
[21:31] Melbourne, big numbers of auctions similarly, another higher clearance rate, so it hasn't slowed the Melbourne market down and it's tracking well ahead, similar to Sydney where it was over the same week last year.
[21:45] Brisbane that typically has a different auction culture than the other capitals, anything over 50% is a good result in that Brisbane market and it's been tracking in the 50s to 60s over the last month or so.
[21:58] Despite high numbers of auctions, that's still a very good result for Brisbane sellers.
[22:04] And we'll be looking at the latest house price data next week, Brandon, and just a bit of a tip that's going to show more very strong results today.
[22:12] for that Brisbane market.
[22:14] And again, reflecting on what we're seeing with clearance rates.
[22:18] Adelaide, well, boom time clearance rate in Adelaide, 82.2%.
[22:22] So back to the boom in Adelaide, 166 auctions, high numbers of auctions, and a similar result to a year ago.
[22:29] So Adelaide's reasserting itself as Australia's strongest capital city
[22:33] auction market.
[22:34] And Canberra is clearly now back in town.
[22:36] It's been an underperformer, a laggard over the past 18 months, but over the past three or four months, that Canberra market has started to pick up.
[22:45] And of course, that's reflecting the lower interest rate energy that's improved affordability and the improvement in confidence in the Canberra market.
[22:53] So good results there for Canberra and 15% higher branded than where it was over the same week last year.
[23:00] So that can show you
[23:01] Clearly the change in the Canberra market.
[23:04] More listings and higher clearance rates are buyers back out in the market in Canberra.
[23:11] When we look at the trends, they're all the same.
[23:13] This is the Sydney monthly trend.
[23:15] rising from those interest rate cuts earlier in the year, higher than where it was at the end of last year and at the same period last year.
[23:25] Same pattern in Melbourne, same pattern in Brisbane, and you guessed it, the same in Adelaide and very much the same in Canberra, which has really taken off since those May interest rate cuts and tracking well ahead, in fact, 20% ahead of where it was
[23:43] over September last year.
[23:46] And finally, some better news for Canberra sellers in terms of now turning into what is clearly a seller's market.
[23:53] If you're looking for the latest auction clearance rates, you can get them on my LinkedIn channel, which is DocAndrewWilson.com.
[23:58] at LinkedIn every Saturday night for the headline snapshot results, six o'clock, around about six o'clock.
[24:04] And if you're looking for the full national report, which includes the regional breakdowns for Sydney and Melbourne and the top 10 sales under the hammer over the year, we release that on my LinkedIn site around about nine.
[24:15] o'clock in the morning on Sundays.
[24:17] If you've missed the latest one, there is a QR code which you can scan and that will give you the latest national auction report for the Super Saturday week of auctions.
[24:27] And as we always do, here's a bit of an ad, Brandon.
[24:30] Well, it's not an ad.
[24:30] It's a giveaway.
[24:31] Biggest giveaway in property is the My Housing Market Infinity suburb data app.
[24:36] So we talk a lot about capital cities here, of course, aggregated data.
[24:40] But here you can get an opportunity to see what's happening on a suburb level.
[24:44] right throughout Australia.
[24:45] So every suburb in Australia that has data is featured in this great little app.
[24:51] Of course, we're looking at asking prices and asking rents.
[24:55] So it reflects on what the market is currently asking for rents and prices on a suburb basis.
[25:02] So you get to understand what the market's pitching, agents are pitching and vendors are pitching internally.
[25:08] in terms of suburb level data.
[25:10] If you want to get a copy of that, there's a link and a QR code that you can scan.
[25:15] Be advised you need a password to get hold of it, but the good folks at Affinity will be quite happy to provide you with that password.
[25:21] But what is the greatest app in property?
[25:23] Yes, I can say that.
[25:25] It certainly helps in your decision making.
[25:27] There's a screenshot of the app.
[25:29] Nicely fits into your phone, on your phone, or on your desktop.
[25:36] You can filter it for price or rent, filter it for capital city regions or outside capital city regions.
[25:41] We're looking at Blacktown here on this screenshot.
[25:43] You can filter it for houses, units or townhouses and the number of beds.
[25:47] So we're looking at a four bedroom house in Blacktown.
[25:50] It shows you there that on that screenshot, it's got not just the median price, but we also show you, Brandon,
[25:56] the low and the high as well.
[25:57] So you know the boundaries that the market's asking at the moment.
[26:01] So some really good insights available as well as the number of properties for sale.
[26:07] And also you can have exactly the same insight into the rental market.
[26:11] So there's the rental market for Blacktown four-bedroom houses, median, low and high rents, and the number of properties for rents.
[26:18] And if you're an investor looking for what yields are currently being offered
[26:23] on those same regional breakdowns.
[26:25] We also offer the top 10 yields and ranked yields for each suburb in those areas, same sort of breakdowns, units, houses or townhouses and the number of beds and we rank them from high to low according to the...
[26:40] according to their results.
[26:43] And also it gives you the vacancy rates, the number of properties for rent and the number of properties for sale.
[26:48] And if you click on the hot links there, you also get a map of actually where that suburb is.
[26:54] So does it get any better than that?
[26:55] Well, I don't think it does actually brand it.
[26:57] So no excuses for not taking scientific approach to property insights and decision making because we've got all the tool sets here, all the tools here to be able to make an informed decision.
[27:08] Of course, that's what you want to do when you're talking about buying and selling property.
[27:11] So next week, we will have the September home price data hot off the press.
[27:16] For everybody, the latest migration data.
[27:19] And, of course, we will also be seeing what the RBA said about its interest rate decisions and the latest auction results in what will be a much quieter weekend for auction activity.
[27:32] So thanks very much, Brandon.
[27:34] Another big week in property, particularly interesting in terms of the outlook for interest rates.
[27:41] Not good news for your electricity bill, I'm afraid, going forward.
[27:45] If you've missed any of the insights this week, you can scan the QR code and that'll give you a PDF copy of what we've done today.
[27:53] So thanks, Brandon.
[27:55] Might see you next week, might not see you next week.
[27:57] Just quickly, Doc, who have you got in the grand final?
[28:00] Have you got Geelong or Brisbane?
[28:04] I think Geelong will win, mate, but Brisbane's full of surprises.
[28:08] You know, it may be surprise last year as well, and it might do it again.
[28:14] But, you know, I guess Geelong finished higher up and that's the only ranking you could get.
[28:20] But as I said, I think Brisbane's not without a chance.
[28:23] It can surprise.
[28:25] But if you were a gambler, maybe you'd be putting a couple of shillings on...
[28:30] on Geelong but that's not me I agree I think I think Geelong's gonna win but I hope Brisbane wins yeah I guess but uh two and a row is a bit greedy isn't it mate you know seriously it is but you never know with Brisbane they did it in the exactly they've done it before winning once once they win they tend to go for a bit of a run and uh exactly right they were
[28:53] You know, they were pretty impressive last week, Brisbane, and they'll be determined.
[28:58] But, you know, it's anybody's guess in a sense, but you'd think that Geelong would – the bookmakers would be favouring Geelong, wouldn't you?
[29:08] Yeah.
[29:09] You're fucking gone.
[29:10] See you.

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