# The India-US Tariff War Nobody Saw Coming... But Should Have | In Our Defence S3 | Ep 17

An episode of [In Our Defence](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1617244439), 14 Aug 2025, 56 min.

Audio: https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/67367270/08_aug_25_iod_8_aug_128.mp3

India's buying cheap Russian oil. Trump's not happy. And now he's slapped 50% tariffs on Indian goods. Officially, it's about funding Russia's war machine. Unofficially? It might be about one man's ego, a Nobel Peace Prize dream, and India refusing to play along. From the MEA's unusually sharp statement to the PM's vow to "pay any price to protect farmers," we unpack the real stakes amid the India-US showdown over tariffs. - Is India's "multi-alignment" foreign policy reaching breaking point? - Why agriculture is a red line in India-US trade talks. - How diplomats handle unpredictable leaders like Donald Trump. - The shift in India's diplomatic tone - and why a career diplomat as EAM matters. - Will India hit back with counter-tariffs or play the long game? Veteran national security journalist Sandeep Unnithan joins host Dev Goswami to decode this latest round of diplomatic warfare -- from South Block's air-conditioned strategy rooms to the high-stakes oil politics of Moscow and Washington. Produced by Garvit Srivastava Sound mixed by Rohan Bharti

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: This is India Today Podcasts.
[0:05] Speaker 2: Welcome to season three of Another Defense, the podcast that
[0:08] Speaker 2: takes you inside the world of conflict. I'm your host,
[0:12] Speaker 2: Deve Goswami, and every week I sit down with experts
[0:16] Speaker 2: and retired officers from the Army, Navy and Air Force
[0:19] Speaker 2: to decode all things to do with India security and
[0:23] Speaker 2: explore what it truly means to serve. Get ready for
[0:27] Speaker 2: stories of strategy, sacrifice and strength. This is in our Defense.
[0:35] Speaker 2: Welcome to Another Defense. This week we go from bunkers
[0:38] Speaker 2: to the air conditioned officers in the South. Talk from
[0:41] Speaker 2: fighter jets firing missiles to paragraphs of words being sent
[0:45] Speaker 2: by noteworbals, the world and art of diplomatic warfare. It's
[0:49] Speaker 2: been a pretty interesting week and to discuss this with
[0:52] Speaker 2: me is sand Hey, sndy, how are you good to be?
[0:55] Speaker 1: The crazy week? That's crazy week? Newspact not completing. So
[1:01] Speaker 1: what's happened this week?
[1:02] Speaker 2: Trump has slapped India with a total of fifty percent
[1:06] Speaker 2: tariffs on goods physically being sent to the US. For now,
[1:10] Speaker 2: I think that twenty five percent tranch is active. The
[1:12] Speaker 2: other twenty five percent that he announces the day before
[1:15] Speaker 2: when we record this will be taking effect in twenty
[1:19] Speaker 2: one days, is what the orders signed by the President
[1:22] Speaker 2: of the US says. He's basically mad that India's.
[1:26] Speaker 1: Buying cheap Russian oil.
[1:29] Speaker 2: But you know, the best was pretty much oky with
[1:31] Speaker 2: it up until some time ago when India was doing
[1:35] Speaker 2: that and helping the.
[1:36] Speaker 1: Global groop prices stay safe, stable, stabilized it.
[1:38] Speaker 2: But now it's become a problem from him for him
[1:41] Speaker 2: because I think he thinks in his head that India's
[1:45] Speaker 2: purchases are fueling the Russian war machine in Ukraine and
[1:49] Speaker 2: basically sort of you know, not helping him end that war.
[1:52] Speaker 2: And you know, have another claim at the Nobel Peace
[1:55] Speaker 2: Price that he sore dearly wants, and so they're in
[1:59] Speaker 2: this mess. I was going to start this episode with
[2:02] Speaker 2: this pretty strong MEA statement that came out a couple
[2:05] Speaker 2: of days ago. This was before the additional tariffs kicking
[2:07] Speaker 2: actually arounced by Trump or even the threat of it.
[2:10] Speaker 2: Actually it was I think a reaction to Trump announcing
[2:12] Speaker 2: the first twenty five percent UH tariff on Indian goods.
[2:16] Speaker 2: That statement by a MEA was unusually strong. A lot
[2:19] Speaker 2: of commentators took note of it that this is not
[2:22] Speaker 2: usually the way THEMEA, the Indian Ministry of Affairs reacts
[2:26] Speaker 2: and speaks about the US especially uh. But before we
[2:32] Speaker 2: get to that, actually deep, I wanted to draw out
[2:35] Speaker 2: to talk to you about something that I thought was
[2:38] Speaker 2: very coincidental. But right the day later, the day after
[2:42] Speaker 2: the MEA statement, you had the Indian Army's Eastern Command
[2:46] Speaker 2: putting out the tweet, the tweet that said, uh uh,
[2:51] Speaker 2: it was a throwback tweet that you know, we're reminding
[2:53] Speaker 2: people just fi what happened.
[2:55] Speaker 1: This day that year.
[2:56] Speaker 2: Is that this day that year, the US arms worth
[3:00] Speaker 2: two billion dollars worshipped to Pakistan.
[3:02] Speaker 1: This was a this was a headline from back then.
[3:05] Speaker 2: Well over the last twenty years. Yeah, yeah, from the
[3:07] Speaker 2: Black seventies. But this day that year was basically this
[3:10] Speaker 2: headline was printed that in that year. So that's even
[3:13] Speaker 2: the armies throwing shit at the US. Now do you
[3:16] Speaker 2: think there was a coincidence or it was just like
[3:17] Speaker 2: it was actually interesting, It's.
[3:19] Speaker 1: Not a coincidence. Of course, everyone was looking at, you know,
[3:22] Speaker 1: things very carefully and I just checked that that tweet
[3:25] Speaker 1: hasn't been deleted, yes, which means there is like all
[3:29] Speaker 1: of instant command approach and putting out that tweet. I
[3:32] Speaker 1: think everyone's a little disgusted with what's going on they,
[3:35] Speaker 1: you know, especially considering where Indo US relations have come
[3:40] Speaker 1: from at least from nineteen seventy one. Nineteen seventy one
[3:43] Speaker 1: is possibly the lowest point that India US relations have
[3:47] Speaker 1: ever been. Right with Nixon and Kissinger in the White House,
[3:51] Speaker 1: you know, all kinds of names that Missus Gandhi was
[3:53] Speaker 1: called by them, it's almost unprintable. And then you have this, uh,
[3:58] Speaker 1: you know, open support of the military dictatorship in Pakistan.
[4:03] Speaker 1: And you just have to read the Blood telegram to
[4:06] Speaker 1: know how outraged even the US diplomats were. And this
[4:09] Speaker 1: is Archer Blood whose telegrams went out to the State
[4:13] Speaker 1: Department where he says, look, American arms are being used
[4:15] Speaker 1: to butcher innocent Pakistani civilians. You know, from there we
[4:20] Speaker 1: came to this stabilization of ties from two thousand and on,
[4:25] Speaker 1: that historic Clinton visit, five day Clinton visit in March
[4:29] Speaker 1: of two thousand where literally the first time that a
[4:33] Speaker 1: US president visited India in two decades, twenty five years
[4:37] Speaker 1: of an India US strategic partnership, and you have President
[4:43] Speaker 1: Donald Trump literally driver truck filled with explosives into that building.
[4:48] Speaker 1: How much worse can it get? We don't know.
[4:50] Speaker 2: Actually, it's only begun. It's only begun. Yeah, you half
[4:53] Speaker 2: years more of President Trump. That many aspects to this.
[4:57] Speaker 2: There's obviously the Russian angle. There's the not talked about
[5:01] Speaker 2: as often, the agriculture angle. But before we get to that,
[5:05] Speaker 2: before we talk about those two issues separately, I want
[5:08] Speaker 2: to draw your attention to something that geobratics expert Michael
[5:13] Speaker 2: Cooleman said earlier this day, earlier to day, sorry that
[5:17] Speaker 2: this could Actually he basically did not use the word ego,
[5:20] Speaker 2: but that's what he basically pointed to by saying that,
[5:22] Speaker 2: you know, India is that only country in the world
[5:25] Speaker 2: that has refused to accept Trump's claim that he helped
[5:28] Speaker 2: end of war. We're talking about the India Pakistan contry
[5:31] Speaker 2: during operations. Hindu India has repeatedly said that it was
[5:35] Speaker 2: just Indian and Pakistan that brokeer the pause in fighting,
[5:39] Speaker 2: and without calling Trump a liar, has basically said that
[5:43] Speaker 2: the US played no major rule in it, apart from
[5:45] Speaker 2: just like you know, exchanging some telephone call and stuff
[5:47] Speaker 2: like that. I'm guessing Trump is not very happy with that.
[5:51] Speaker 2: So one point is that all of this actually is
[5:55] Speaker 2: just about one man's ego, just like many wars are
[5:58] Speaker 2: pre take on this.
[5:59] Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, I think you've nailed it, and you know,
[6:03] Speaker 1: so has Google Man. The fact is that it is
[6:05] Speaker 1: all about Trump, and you know they The thing is
[6:08] Speaker 1: that countries have disagreements all the time. They disagree all
[6:12] Speaker 1: the time, but all of this happens behind closed doors.
[6:15] Speaker 1: So countries don't call other countries' names, they don't certainly
[6:20] Speaker 1: humiliate them the way Trump has been doing that, and
[6:22] Speaker 1: he's made it into you know, a fashion statement for him.
[6:27] Speaker 1: There is nothing that's sacro science anymore. He will call
[6:29] Speaker 1: Zelenski to the White House and he'll humiliate him for
[6:33] Speaker 1: the kind of clothes that he's wearing and unleash the
[6:37] Speaker 1: Vice president on him. So this is like it's a
[6:40] Speaker 1: as someone said, it's like watching a car crash in
[6:44] Speaker 1: slow motion. You know, you know where it's headed and
[6:47] Speaker 1: you're almost like powerless to do anything about it. And
[6:49] Speaker 1: that's what Trump has been doing, the kind of names
[6:52] Speaker 1: that he's been calling us. He said, it's a dead economy,
[6:55] Speaker 1: and you know India is a dead economy. Yeah, sure,
[6:58] Speaker 1: we're a developing country. We have our issues with the economy,
[7:02] Speaker 1: but we're not a dead economy. One of the fastest
[7:04] Speaker 1: growing major economies in the world, which is why the
[7:07] Speaker 1: United States is you're doing business with us, which is
[7:10] Speaker 1: why Apple has moved its factories here to India. Right,
[7:13] Speaker 1: it's certainly not a dead economy. And then saying, you
[7:16] Speaker 1: know that that crack that he dropped about, Yeah, you know,
[7:20] Speaker 1: we're going to find oil in Pakistan and maybe India
[7:22] Speaker 1: can buy oil from Pakistan. You know. So to my mind,
[7:25] Speaker 1: it's like a lot of the effort that both countries
[7:29] Speaker 1: have kind of put in over the last twenty five
[7:31] Speaker 1: years since that very historic Clinton visit to India, it's
[7:35] Speaker 1: all seems to be going down the drain. And you're
[7:38] Speaker 1: watching this on a daily basis, and you know, while
[7:41] Speaker 1: I think that all of this could be temporary, Oh
[7:44] Speaker 1: it's a tarriff thing. You know, we have fifty percent
[7:48] Speaker 1: tarretes will probably come down, it will eventually, But it's
[7:51] Speaker 1: the whole grammar around on all of this. It's all
[7:55] Speaker 1: the tirades and you know, the open berating of India,
[8:00] Speaker 1: all of these you know, South Bloc has long memories,
[8:04] Speaker 1: you know, like I'm fond of saying that it took
[8:06] Speaker 1: us nearly twenty five years to come out of the
[8:10] Speaker 1: anti US camp, which is where we were for justifiable reasons.
[8:13] Speaker 1: We were with the Soviet Union. We picked aside. So
[8:16] Speaker 1: did the Americans. They chose the Pakistanis. But later when
[8:19] Speaker 1: our economy started kicking into high gear post liberalization. Look,
[8:24] Speaker 1: the US is not here for charity, right. They are
[8:27] Speaker 1: one of the smartest nations on Earth. They may not
[8:30] Speaker 1: win a lot of wars, but they are among the
[8:33] Speaker 1: smartest business people on the planet. And they saw where
[8:36] Speaker 1: the Indian economy was going post liberalization. They saw where
[8:39] Speaker 1: it would be twenty thirty forty years hence, and this
[8:42] Speaker 1: is how empires think, you know, and let's way say
[8:46] Speaker 1: the Americans are an empire. They are the continuation of
[8:49] Speaker 1: the British Empire, the Anglophone empire. Right, they saw where
[8:52] Speaker 1: India was going to be, and they wanted to partner
[8:54] Speaker 1: with India to act as a hedge against China. Right.
[9:00] Speaker 1: All of this what we've seen in the last couple
[9:03] Speaker 1: of days with Trump and all that, it's it's left
[9:07] Speaker 1: a very bad taste in every one's mouth. And which
[9:08] Speaker 1: is why you've seen a very measured You've seen a
[9:12] Speaker 1: lot of silence, strangely from our side. If you've noticed, Uh,
[9:16] Speaker 1: the Prime Minister was great friend of President Trump. They
[9:19] Speaker 1: had a great bernahamie at some point during his first
[9:22] Speaker 1: term up key bar Trump sarka all of that. You
[9:25] Speaker 1: remember that it's now tariffsarka too bad. But uh, there's
[9:29] Speaker 1: been a silence from the topmost levels of the government,
[9:33] Speaker 1: and I think that's that's puzzling, and maybe Trump is
[9:37] Speaker 1: a little surprised as well. Wise. You know, my friend
[9:41] Speaker 1: made not picked up the phone and spoken to me.
[9:43] Speaker 1: He spoke to him once just before uh Asimuni's visit
[9:47] Speaker 1: to White House, to the White House for that lunch.
[9:49] Speaker 1: But that was kind of to you know, uh, preempt
[9:54] Speaker 1: anything that Trump might say soon after the meeting, right,
[9:57] Speaker 1: and of course politely turned down that ambush invitation to Washington, DC.
[10:02] Speaker 1: So you know, it's I think policymakers here are a
[10:07] Speaker 1: bit baffled by what's going on. It's just the thing
[10:11] Speaker 1: of we knew Trump is a loose cannon. We knew
[10:14] Speaker 1: his second term would be far more unpredictable than the first,
[10:19] Speaker 1: but we didn't expect to be in the firing line.
[10:22] Speaker 1: I think that's where the biggest surprises and the thing
[10:25] Speaker 1: is that, you know, I why do we think we
[10:28] Speaker 1: are so special? They're Yes, Actually he's not spared the Brits. Right.
[10:33] Speaker 1: The British are the closest that any country has been
[10:37] Speaker 1: to another country. Right, they share nuclear weapons. The British
[10:41] Speaker 1: submarines fire American nuclear missiles. That's how close they are. Right,
[10:46] Speaker 1: they are the Anglo sphere. He's gone out and hammered
[10:49] Speaker 1: the Brits, He's taken on the Canadians. Yeah. So as
[10:53] Speaker 1: as the Hindi thing goes, I mean, which radish of
[10:56] Speaker 1: which field? Right? Why do we expect to be treated
[11:01] Speaker 1: any different from that? And I think we should have
[11:03] Speaker 1: anticipated that this this car crash, you know, coming our direction. Yeah.
[11:08] Speaker 2: I think you're right there, because I think from Trump's
[11:10] Speaker 2: first term, I think a lot of people, commentators as
[11:13] Speaker 2: well as people in India, they were very much happy
[11:15] Speaker 2: to sort of see the train wreck from far away
[11:18] Speaker 2: see and make fun of him, laugh at him, and
[11:20] Speaker 2: you know, just like, but it's going to impact us. Yeah,
[11:22] Speaker 2: but Ano that's impacting us. We suddenly realized that, oh
[11:25] Speaker 2: my god, in the middle of peace. Yeah, so yeah,
[11:30] Speaker 2: one part of this episode, obviously, is going to be
[11:32] Speaker 2: about India's evolving response to Trump and what he's doing,
[11:35] Speaker 2: but that's going to be a bit later. Now, I
[11:37] Speaker 2: want to talk about the two core issues at hand.
[11:39] Speaker 2: Apart from, of course, his ego that he talked about
[11:42] Speaker 2: the need for him to get his ego massaged Russia,
[11:46] Speaker 2: that's talked about because he's put it out himself that
[11:49] Speaker 2: this is basically because India's buying Russian oil. And the
[11:52] Speaker 2: second much more important point about agriculture. In fact, PMO
[11:56] Speaker 2: said just this morning that India's willing to pay any
[11:59] Speaker 2: price to put its farmers and cattle herders and fishermen.
[12:02] Speaker 2: Uh So we'll come to the agriculture a bit. Sorry
[12:05] Speaker 2: your topic in a bit, But the Russian oil thing,
[12:07] Speaker 2: so we've stood by, not stood by Russia, I'm sorry.
[12:09] Speaker 2: We've continued buying Russian oil ever since the Ukraine War began,
[12:14] Speaker 2: ever since the first set of sanctions started, truggling on
[12:17] Speaker 2: Russian Russian goods, including oil. Not so much as to
[12:22] Speaker 2: stand by Russia, like I said earlier, not because Russia
[12:25] Speaker 2: has been a sort of a friend friend person like
[12:28] Speaker 2: over the years. But it's just cheap for us, and
[12:31] Speaker 2: we have a vast economy we have, you know, we
[12:33] Speaker 2: have a huge need for oil, and it just made
[12:36] Speaker 2: business and economic sense to just.
[12:37] Speaker 1: Buy cheap oil levels.
[12:39] Speaker 2: Of of course, it helps that, like we've said officially
[12:42] Speaker 2: that you know, initially the West encouraged us to buy
[12:45] Speaker 2: Russian oil because that sort of helped stabilize the price.
[12:48] Speaker 2: And if I remember correctly, the initial months, India was
[12:52] Speaker 2: taking in Russian crude and exporting the refined petroleum to
[12:55] Speaker 2: the rest of the.
[12:56] Speaker 1: World, including Europe.
[12:58] Speaker 2: So they, I mean, we're very happy with it, but
[13:02] Speaker 2: it's now come to this and no matter if you
[13:06] Speaker 2: want to be patient, no matter you want to have
[13:08] Speaker 2: your own diploma, you want to have your own standing,
[13:10] Speaker 2: you want to stand by your convictions and feelings. But
[13:14] Speaker 2: the fact is that it's going to have some impact,
[13:16] Speaker 2: and it was something.
[13:17] Speaker 1: Right there was already a oiter's report last week.
[13:20] Speaker 2: I'm not wrong that the Indian PSUs have paused Russian
[13:24] Speaker 2: oil purches in the last one week. Though when THEA
[13:26] Speaker 2: was asked about it, the official spokesperson run the jess
[13:29] Speaker 2: Will said that you know, it's they make sure this
[13:31] Speaker 2: is an evolving basis at the market and market couple.
[13:35] Speaker 2: But do you think at least for the near term, Yeah,
[13:38] Speaker 2: this is going to cause the reathing in terms of
[13:41] Speaker 2: do we or do we not by Russian oil? Do
[13:43] Speaker 2: you think whichever we go is going to be a
[13:46] Speaker 2: very fraud choice for us?
[13:48] Speaker 1: Well, it is. It's certainly going to be a you know,
[13:50] Speaker 1: a choice that's fraught with an enormous risk. And I
[13:54] Speaker 1: think the government of India is already looking at, you know,
[13:58] Speaker 1: increasing the energy basket, you know, diversifying it and getting
[14:02] Speaker 1: more American oil the stalk of that forty seven billion
[14:05] Speaker 1: dollar trade deficit that we have, which is the primary,
[14:09] Speaker 1: well not the primary, but the secondary reason for Trump's angst.
[14:12] Speaker 1: The primary one, of course, being that we are buying
[14:14] Speaker 1: Russian oil, and the secondary thing is that why aren't
[14:17] Speaker 1: they buying oil from us? You know, So I think
[14:20] Speaker 1: they will. You will see in the next couple of days,
[14:23] Speaker 1: if not weeks, us buying more American oil and reducing
[14:28] Speaker 1: that trade deficit. So that's a choice that the government
[14:31] Speaker 1: vidia will make. So all of this is up for negotiation.
[14:33] Speaker 1: It's not it's not cast in stone. Fifty percent is
[14:36] Speaker 1: not cast in stone. It's always been you know, one
[14:39] Speaker 1: set of tariffs and then they're negotiated and they come down.
[14:42] Speaker 1: So he's been doing that with every country. He's done
[14:44] Speaker 1: that with the UK. The UK had I think they
[14:47] Speaker 1: got it thirty percent tariff thing, and it's now down
[14:50] Speaker 1: to ten. The EU also had something similar, which was
[14:55] Speaker 1: you know, double digit tariff, which has again come down
[14:57] Speaker 1: to about fifteen or so if I remember correctly. So
[14:59] Speaker 1: the these kind of things are all up for negotiations.
[15:02] Speaker 1: It's you know, but I think we were a little
[15:05] Speaker 1: surprised by the tone and the tenor of the statements
[15:09] Speaker 1: that came out of Trump's thing. I mean, it's not
[15:11] Speaker 1: the first time that we've faced, you know, geopolitical issues.
[15:15] Speaker 1: It's the first time that we've been at the receiving
[15:17] Speaker 1: end of an American president's are in a very long time.
[15:21] Speaker 1: It's not happened. I think the last American president who
[15:24] Speaker 1: said something close to what Trump is saying today is Clinton,
[15:30] Speaker 1: right after the nuclear tests of nineteen ninety eight, when
[15:32] Speaker 1: he said that, you know, India had dug itself into
[15:35] Speaker 1: a hole and it was for India to dig itself
[15:37] Speaker 1: out of that hole or something like that time. And
[15:38] Speaker 1: that is a one off remark, but other than that,
[15:42] Speaker 1: I can't think of any other American president who's used
[15:44] Speaker 1: these words, you know, and these words they are evabrate,
[15:47] Speaker 1: they stay with you, their bitter memories and all that.
[15:49] Speaker 1: But that said, these tariffs are up for negotiations. The
[15:54] Speaker 1: energy basket will be diversified, the Americans might get a
[15:58] Speaker 1: larger share of our pie that we buy, and they
[16:03] Speaker 1: would be possibly hard nosed negotiations that would begin when
[16:06] Speaker 1: the US Trade delegation comes towards the end of the month.
[16:09] Speaker 1: So it's all up for negotiations. It's all how many
[16:14] Speaker 1: cards we can put on the table. And you know,
[16:17] Speaker 1: what are the levers that we have on the United States.
[16:20] Speaker 1: And one big liver is of course Boeing, right, the
[16:23] Speaker 1: huge orders that we have sixty billion dollars er India
[16:27] Speaker 1: and Indigo and er India and this one Akasa indigous
[16:32] Speaker 1: with yeah, and so these two would have a large
[16:35] Speaker 1: number of orders, so that India would want to remind
[16:39] Speaker 1: the Americans that, look, we may be ordering defense equipment
[16:42] Speaker 1: worth you know, a billion or two billion or something,
[16:44] Speaker 1: but the commercial jets orders is huge. We're one of
[16:48] Speaker 1: the largest buyers of commercial jets in the world. So
[16:51] Speaker 1: all of these things are going to be you know,
[16:53] Speaker 1: thrashed out in the next couple of weeks towards all
[16:56] Speaker 1: of this month through August. But then you know, there
[16:58] Speaker 1: is going to be like I mean, because of the
[17:00] Speaker 1: kind of language that Trump is used, and of course
[17:03] Speaker 1: this other very inexplicable shift towards Pakistan. Yeah, that that
[17:08] Speaker 1: is that's baffling South Block as well. So I think
[17:12] Speaker 1: that that is something that is going to worry the
[17:16] Speaker 1: Indian policymakers, in politicians, the ministers, very very profoundly as
[17:23] Speaker 1: they're looking at this the state of you know, India
[17:26] Speaker 1: US relations under Donald Trump. It's surely be in six months.
[17:30] Speaker 2: Yeah, Actually it feels much longer. Actually feels like six
[17:33] Speaker 2: years already. Uh yeah, right uh. And in fact, you know,
[17:37] Speaker 2: as we record this thing, news just came earlier this
[17:40] Speaker 2: day that Field Marshall Laarsimony is set to visit the
[17:43] Speaker 2: US once again in the in the coming few days.
[17:45] Speaker 2: You don't know yet for what whether we're meeting President Trump,
[17:49] Speaker 2: but I'm guessing he probably.
[17:50] Speaker 1: It's Gorilla's send off, is what I ask. So he's
[17:54] Speaker 1: indulging in Krilla warfare. The Central Command.
[17:58] Speaker 2: Right head right, uh right, So to the second point
[18:01] Speaker 2: then the one about agriculture and what I want to
[18:04] Speaker 2: talk to you about because this is not this is
[18:06] Speaker 2: not a subject that has been written about in depth
[18:09] Speaker 2: as such. Uh, primarily I'm guessing because you don't really
[18:13] Speaker 2: have much to go by in terms of official world
[18:15] Speaker 2: So I remember when Trump announced that you know that
[18:18] Speaker 2: the big gas board he brought out and now starts
[18:21] Speaker 2: on every country. He had mentioned that US would like
[18:24] Speaker 2: access to India's agricultural market. Uh, this morning, like I
[18:28] Speaker 2: said a PM mode without naming Trump, he was speaking
[18:32] Speaker 2: at a lecture for the famed Agricultural Economist Revolution where
[18:39] Speaker 2: he basically where he said that he was willing to
[18:43] Speaker 2: pay a personal cost, no matter what it was, to
[18:46] Speaker 2: protect India's farmers, cattle holders, and fishermen.
[18:49] Speaker 1: Uh.
[18:51] Speaker 2: What we can gather is that the US wants access
[18:53] Speaker 2: to it for for very good reason. I'm guessing the
[18:55] Speaker 2: US market has a saturation point, and India's the biggest
[18:58] Speaker 2: oft to China, so it's bes to dump products awayear,
[19:01] Speaker 2: which is a big risk for US because cheap imported
[19:04] Speaker 2: US s mall is obviously gonna het your farmers. Some
[19:07] Speaker 2: data for our listeners and viewers before you get in
[19:11] Speaker 2: overyear So the US farmer on average gets sixty one
[19:14] Speaker 2: thousand dollars annually in subsidies, the Indian farmer only gets
[19:18] Speaker 2: to eighty two dollars. Agriculture accounts for forty one percent of
[19:22] Speaker 2: total employment in India, while it's just around one percent
[19:25] Speaker 2: in the US at fourteen point six percent. Agriculture is
[19:30] Speaker 2: one of the biggest components of India's GDP. In the
[19:32] Speaker 2: US it's just zero point nine too close to one percent.
[19:35] Speaker 2: The average farm holding in the US is is one
[19:38] Speaker 2: eighty hectes.
[19:39] Speaker 1: Per person, in indiates around one heck taper person.
[19:43] Speaker 2: This basically tells you how disadvantage the Indian farmer already
[19:46] Speaker 2: is visibly the American counterpart, and if they now have
[19:49] Speaker 2: access to our market, it's going to be it's going
[19:53] Speaker 2: to cause them trouble. India has been clear that we
[19:59] Speaker 2: are not going to move on this. Do you think
[20:01] Speaker 2: that stand will hold because I think the biggest sticking
[20:04] Speaker 2: point in the trade negotiations is and has been agriculture.
[20:08] Speaker 1: You know, I don't see India opening up agriculture to
[20:12] Speaker 1: the United States. Come what me? I mean They're not
[20:15] Speaker 1: going to do that. It is actually a political atom
[20:19] Speaker 1: bomb to quote Rahu in a different context, but this
[20:23] Speaker 1: this one is an atom bomb because it's a very
[20:27] Speaker 1: very emotive subject. You know, it's land, it's farmers. You
[20:31] Speaker 1: may not really care about the farmers, many of the
[20:32] Speaker 1: political parties I believe don't. Otherwise they wouldn't have opposed
[20:36] Speaker 1: the farm laws right a couple of years back, but
[20:38] Speaker 1: the government had to kind of roll back to those
[20:41] Speaker 1: farms farmers power by absolutely, and and the fact that
[20:45] Speaker 1: the emotive appeal of agriculture in India, I mean, at
[20:49] Speaker 1: the end of the day, we are still a very
[20:51] Speaker 1: we're a poor country. We're a developing country. We're primarily
[20:55] Speaker 1: an agric agrarian society which is making that transition to
[21:00] Speaker 1: manufacturing and services. Right. China has of course done that
[21:03] Speaker 1: much faster than us. The United States has done that
[21:06] Speaker 1: the fastest, possibly since the nineteenth and early twentieth century. So,
[21:11] Speaker 1: you know, for US to now open up our farm
[21:14] Speaker 1: sector at a time when all of those figures that
[21:16] Speaker 1: you mentioned, they're just glaring this inefficiency. The US is
[21:20] Speaker 1: a farming superpart right, it's looking for markets to dump
[21:23] Speaker 1: its produce, and India will never open up the you know,
[21:28] Speaker 1: agricultural sector for exactly precisely for the reasons that I mentioned,
[21:33] Speaker 1: the fact that it is a political time. It will
[21:35] Speaker 1: be suicidal for any government to do that. It would
[21:39] Speaker 1: be as I think it would. The next biggest thing
[21:42] Speaker 1: would be for any government to you know, accept the
[21:46] Speaker 1: international boundaries as they are occupied by Pakistan and China. Right,
[21:50] Speaker 1: these are non negotiables. You don't negotiate on territory and
[21:54] Speaker 1: you don't negotiate on agriculture, you know. But that said,
[21:57] Speaker 1: I think the Green Revolution where the Prime Minister was
[21:59] Speaker 1: speak on today about Ms swam Nathan, it is our greatest, single,
[22:04] Speaker 1: biggest achievement post independence, the fact that in the nineteen
[22:09] Speaker 1: sixties we were completely dependent on external sources to feed
[22:14] Speaker 1: our people. You know that famous pl for eighty Public
[22:17] Speaker 1: Law for eighty, which is when we would actually have
[22:19] Speaker 1: to call up the United States and beg them for food.
[22:23] Speaker 1: Could you send up you know, some more grain shipments please?
[22:26] Speaker 1: And then the Americans says, oh, yeah, okay, fine, we'll
[22:28] Speaker 1: do that. And then so when missus Ghandhi makes that call,
[22:32] Speaker 1: as the story goes, President Lyndon Johnson says, but why
[22:36] Speaker 1: are you voting against us the United Nations? You haven't
[22:39] Speaker 1: been very supportive of us at on the Vietnam War.
[22:42] Speaker 1: We weren't right. That was naked American aggression. So here's
[22:47] Speaker 1: the thing, and that's when the Green Revolution began and
[22:49] Speaker 1: missus Gandhi, as the story goes, said that don't ever
[22:52] Speaker 1: make me call an American president and beg for food.
[22:56] Speaker 3: Right.
[22:56] Speaker 1: So I think since then, we've now now become completely
[23:02] Speaker 1: self sufficient in food. We're exporting food, and we are
[23:05] Speaker 1: also feeding eighty core people, you know, free food over
[23:08] Speaker 1: the last five years. You can debate on the utility
[23:11] Speaker 1: of that, but it's a phenomenal achievement to feed eight
[23:15] Speaker 1: hundred million people. That just tells you where you've come
[23:19] Speaker 1: in the last half century or so. So you know,
[23:24] Speaker 1: once again, I mean agriculture because of all of the connotations,
[23:28] Speaker 1: the political ramification, that is unlikely to be open to
[23:31] Speaker 1: the United States, and for many other reasons as well.
[23:34] Speaker 1: The GM food angle, for instance, you know, genetically modified
[23:38] Speaker 1: food is rampant in the United States and in India.
[23:41] Speaker 1: As you know, we've just used it for maybe cotton,
[23:44] Speaker 1: that's the only place we've allowed it, but not in
[23:46] Speaker 1: food stuffs. We have issues with the kind of food
[23:51] Speaker 1: that is fed to American cattle, for instance, which is
[23:53] Speaker 1: what makes American milk problematic for us, because there's meat
[23:58] Speaker 1: that they're feded in. You know, all of those issues.
[24:00] Speaker 1: It's a very big contentious thing. Though I feel there
[24:03] Speaker 1: would be some little areas where they might allow them
[24:07] Speaker 1: to enter, you know, not all of agriculture, but there
[24:09] Speaker 1: would be some given take the whole thing is given
[24:11] Speaker 1: to exactly. Yeah, they will take a maximalist position. They
[24:15] Speaker 1: will say, well, fifty percent tariffs, but then you know,
[24:18] Speaker 1: they say, Okay, we're open to negotiating on this and
[24:20] Speaker 1: this and this, And my fear is that they might
[24:25] Speaker 1: actually make While they hold up on agriculture, they might
[24:30] Speaker 1: make significant concessions on defense, which is on agreeing to
[24:36] Speaker 1: buy American hardware. Right, and you've seen what's happened to
[24:40] Speaker 1: countries who bought American hardware. They have literally to seek
[24:43] Speaker 1: permission to use F sixteen fighter jets. You saw that
[24:46] Speaker 1: with Thailand and Cambodia. And worse is the prospect of
[24:52] Speaker 1: American companies entering the Indian military industrial complex and still budding,
[24:56] Speaker 1: still budding. Yeah, so they have a fully developed I
[25:00] Speaker 1: see of a kind that no country in the world
[25:02] Speaker 1: has it's the most powerful m I see in the
[25:05] Speaker 1: history of humanity. And on the other hand, you have
[25:09] Speaker 1: an Indian Indigenous military industrial complex that's just budding, it's
[25:13] Speaker 1: barely twenty five years old, which you have a you've
[25:17] Speaker 1: always had a public sector, you have a mini school
[25:20] Speaker 1: private sector, and you have thousands of MSMEs, you have startups,
[25:24] Speaker 1: you have guys getting into drones, and you know, small
[25:27] Speaker 1: technologies and all that which will eventually grow. And that's
[25:30] Speaker 1: always been the case. Small compan they start small, they
[25:32] Speaker 1: operate out of garages, and then in what five years,
[25:35] Speaker 1: they scale up and the big place. And I've literally
[25:37] Speaker 1: seen this happen with many companies which I've visited in
[25:41] Speaker 1: the last five years, six years. They started with small,
[25:44] Speaker 1: little workshops and today they have like five and six
[25:47] Speaker 1: story buildings because they've scaled up so quickly. And they've
[25:50] Speaker 1: got that. These companies are at risk from the us
[25:53] Speaker 1: mi C because they're going to come in and they
[25:55] Speaker 1: going to buy out all these things. They're going to
[25:56] Speaker 1: make you know, Rameishchahans out of all of these MSMs,
[25:59] Speaker 1: and you know, drink them like bottles of coke. That's
[26:02] Speaker 1: what's gonna happen. That's my fear. But that's just my
[26:04] Speaker 1: fear guy.
[26:06] Speaker 2: But that's a good point because that's something I was
[26:07] Speaker 2: gonna bring up eventually anyway, is that he's Trumps a businessman,
[26:12] Speaker 2: like he keeps saying, so he's gonna want concessions.
[26:14] Speaker 1: Then he's a real estate guy from the worst real
[26:17] Speaker 1: estate market in the world, the most competitive real estate
[26:19] Speaker 1: market in the world, let's face it, New York. Yeah.
[26:23] Speaker 2: Uh, And negotiation is something that real estate thrives on,
[26:26] Speaker 2: so he knows that.
[26:28] Speaker 1: So yeah, defense Uh.
[26:31] Speaker 2: Is do you think the F thirty five gonna be
[26:34] Speaker 2: a factor, because, like we've discussed in the Air Force episode,
[26:37] Speaker 2: the future road map for Indiana India's Air Force episode,
[26:41] Speaker 2: you said that the idea that you said, and you
[26:43] Speaker 2: said that mostly will what will probably happen is that
[26:46] Speaker 2: India might get some more rafults because you already have
[26:49] Speaker 2: them in service.
[26:50] Speaker 1: You have this bare past. Uh, and then you'll go
[26:52] Speaker 1: forward with.
[26:52] Speaker 2: Your am Cup project and your stages maybe Mark to one,
[26:56] Speaker 2: Mark Mark Oney, Mark one, coming the Mark to project. Uh.
[27:00] Speaker 2: Do you think under all this pressure there might also
[27:03] Speaker 2: be anything on the F thirty five.
[27:05] Speaker 1: I think see the F thirty five is on the
[27:07] Speaker 1: table even as you speak. There have been a couple
[27:10] Speaker 1: of opinions to the country that oh, it's off the
[27:12] Speaker 1: table and all. But everything is on the table, right,
[27:14] Speaker 1: however harsh it might sound. Even the farming sector is
[27:19] Speaker 1: open for negotiations. They would be small areas, like I
[27:21] Speaker 1: mentioned that they would try and make inroads in two
[27:25] Speaker 1: and similarly with the F thirty five as well. That
[27:27] Speaker 1: is also you know, a carrot that India would like
[27:31] Speaker 1: to dangle before the United States, given the fact that
[27:33] Speaker 1: Trump has offered it while Prime Minister re Mote he
[27:37] Speaker 1: was in the White House. So it's like, you know,
[27:39] Speaker 1: Trump's F thirty five offer to India, despite the fact
[27:44] Speaker 1: that the US isn't very happy with the F thirty
[27:46] Speaker 1: five either, and Trump doesn't like it. It doesn't look
[27:48] Speaker 1: good enough, it doesn't look you know, menacing enough. And
[27:52] Speaker 1: they're looking at a new aircraft to replace the F
[27:55] Speaker 1: thirty five and the F twenty two, so they could
[27:58] Speaker 1: possibly you know, palm of the F thirty five onto
[28:01] Speaker 1: other countries while they move up onto the six generation fighters.
[28:05] Speaker 1: But you know, here's the thing with the F thirty
[28:06] Speaker 1: five is that, given the last couple of months, the
[28:11] Speaker 1: kind of the grammar that they've used and you know,
[28:17] Speaker 1: using trade as a negotiating tool to stop war between
[28:20] Speaker 1: India and Pakistan. Wouldn't this make you more vulnerable the
[28:25] Speaker 1: fact that you're buying such an expensive fighter jet. What
[28:29] Speaker 1: if a US administration or president tomorrow it's it's obviously
[28:32] Speaker 1: not going to happen in Trump's presidency, right that the
[28:35] Speaker 1: deal will outlast his tenure and possibly go on to
[28:39] Speaker 1: spill over into his success as presidential tenure. I mean,
[28:43] Speaker 1: these things take time, right, even if it's a G
[28:46] Speaker 1: two G deal. What prevents the US administration from using
[28:49] Speaker 1: the F thirty five as a as a you know,
[28:53] Speaker 1: leverage against India to you know, not fight the wars
[28:56] Speaker 1: that they want you to fight. And this is what
[28:58] Speaker 1: Thailand just saw recently. The US didn't allow them to
[29:01] Speaker 1: use their F sixteens against Cambodia. So the US is
[29:04] Speaker 1: up for using all leavers, you know, commercial, diplomatic, and
[29:08] Speaker 1: indeed military. So I think in the light of that,
[29:11] Speaker 1: there would be people who would really question buying the
[29:15] Speaker 1: F thirty five, no matter how you know, how high
[29:19] Speaker 1: tech it is and how stealthy it is and how
[29:22] Speaker 1: much of radar evading it is, that can it evade
[29:25] Speaker 1: American sanctions. I think not.
[29:28] Speaker 2: It's not that stealthy, right, So then I'm guessing what
[29:31] Speaker 2: probably might happen is something that I discussed in season
[29:33] Speaker 2: two often at defense, the Striker deal, because that.
[29:37] Speaker 1: Was like past their trucks. Yeah, yeah, well you can
[29:40] Speaker 1: make vehicles.
[29:41] Speaker 2: Why would you want them to want to import them
[29:43] Speaker 2: from the viewers? But that's something you can like, okay,
[29:45] Speaker 2: they can, they can, yeah, justify that.
[29:46] Speaker 1: Oh so we've taken you know, strikers, we've taken maybe
[29:50] Speaker 1: even two squadrons of F thirty five hundred. Negotiation, we
[29:53] Speaker 1: might buy more. So all of this is just going
[29:56] Speaker 1: to be put on the table. But you know, heart
[29:58] Speaker 1: of hearts, I don't think our hearts are into this now,
[30:03] Speaker 1: you know, given how for the first time in twenty
[30:05] Speaker 1: five years, we've seen open co version, you know, by
[30:09] Speaker 1: an American president. There have been measures in the past
[30:13] Speaker 1: with you've seen that in twenty nineteen, when India signed
[30:15] Speaker 1: that S four hundred deal with the Russian Federation, there
[30:20] Speaker 1: were warnings from the was it the Trump administration then
[30:24] Speaker 1: the Trump administration and preceding him, the Obama administration, they
[30:28] Speaker 1: wanders against buying the S four hunder because they were
[30:31] Speaker 1: afraid this would actually foreclose the sale of the F
[30:34] Speaker 1: thirty fives to India. The two can't co exist, right,
[30:37] Speaker 1: You can't have the frontline American fifth generation fighter jet
[30:42] Speaker 1: with you know, the best Russian air defense system picking
[30:47] Speaker 1: up the radar signatures of the other one. So that
[30:50] Speaker 1: was something that we signed. But all of this was
[30:52] Speaker 1: behind closed doors. And so I've spoken with the then
[30:56] Speaker 1: Defense Minister and Tarman about this and she said, look,
[31:00] Speaker 1: we've told the Americans that this is in our interest
[31:03] Speaker 1: and we need this and this is anyway I've been
[31:05] Speaker 1: signed before. This talk so initiated before the cats thing
[31:09] Speaker 1: came into effect. But all that was done closed door,
[31:13] Speaker 1: you know. But yere, now it is under trum. It's
[31:16] Speaker 1: my god, it's truth social social time.
[31:20] Speaker 2: Yes, so we'll talk about now how the situation may
[31:25] Speaker 2: be like at Southlock, but after.
[31:27] Speaker 1: A quick break.
[31:29] Speaker 3: But it is important, isn't it to also communicate what's
[31:33] Speaker 3: going to happen. Communication and comprehension both are equally important.
[31:38] Speaker 3: So now it is in the modern type of a play,
[31:41] Speaker 3: this is opie and all. Yes, we do tell them
[31:43] Speaker 3: it's just cat well scan. But if you're not in relationship,
[31:45] Speaker 3: it will be abdominal scan. If it is already in
[31:49] Speaker 3: a relationship, then we can do it transigenal where the
[31:51] Speaker 3: rods they can al always when it comes to uterus,
[31:55] Speaker 3: and all best results will be transigenal scan because it
[31:58] Speaker 3: will be nearer to the uterress.
[31:59] Speaker 4: We can find not everything what is necessary, but usually
[32:02] Speaker 4: the zonologists. The technician who stays near the zonologists, they
[32:07] Speaker 4: are the people who will make them understand and take them.
[32:10] Speaker 4: But like you said in PSCs, when it is overcrowded
[32:13] Speaker 4: and all they take it for track. Times are changing
[32:17] Speaker 4: from last two and a half decades to now, a
[32:20] Speaker 4: huge leap in the way we talk to the patient,
[32:23] Speaker 4: attend to the natient, and the respect to the patient.
[32:26] Speaker 4: They have changed a lot. But that's just so much
[32:29] Speaker 4: to improve on us.
[32:35] Speaker 2: Welcome back something by now to talk about what's it
[32:39] Speaker 2: like for the diplomats at the AMEA headquarters, what's it
[32:44] Speaker 2: like for our ambassador in Washington, d C. There's a
[32:48] Speaker 2: famous quote of Henry Kissinger. It is actually understood out
[32:51] Speaker 2: of context. The quote says, to be an enemy of
[32:55] Speaker 2: America can be dangerous, to be a friend is fatal.
[33:00] Speaker 1: The quote actually is understood out of context.
[33:02] Speaker 2: So what I've dug up is that he actually said
[33:04] Speaker 2: this to somebody just as Nixon was about to come
[33:07] Speaker 2: into office, and what he was saying this was during
[33:10] Speaker 2: the Vietnam or what he was saying was that if
[33:13] Speaker 2: the incoming president Nixon did not, sorry, allowed a coup
[33:18] Speaker 2: to happen, I'll phrase, And what he was saying was
[33:20] Speaker 2: that if the incoming president Nixon allowed a coup to
[33:23] Speaker 2: happen in Vietnam, then the world would perceive America like
[33:28] Speaker 2: so like they would believe that to be an enemy
[33:30] Speaker 2: of America is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.
[33:33] Speaker 1: Not hanging with their friends.
[33:34] Speaker 2: Yeah, But regardless of what Kissinger's context was, how he
[33:38] Speaker 2: meant it, don't you think Trump is doing that exact
[33:42] Speaker 2: same thing.
[33:43] Speaker 1: Yes, Trump is realizing the words of Henry Kissinger, how
[33:47] Speaker 1: much ever out of context they were and they popularly
[33:51] Speaker 1: believed to be. Trump is actually telling the world that,
[33:54] Speaker 1: you know, to be our friend is a dangerous thing,
[33:56] Speaker 1: but to be a you know, to be an adversary
[34:00] Speaker 1: is dangerous, but we have friend is fatal. Look how
[34:02] Speaker 1: he's kicking his friends around, you know, And this is
[34:05] Speaker 1: the thing, you know, Trump believes this is this comes
[34:09] Speaker 1: from someone else in the United States, a friend who
[34:13] Speaker 1: said that this is how Trump treats all his friends.
[34:16] Speaker 1: You have to be literally, uh, you know, completely prostrate,
[34:21] Speaker 1: sucking up to Trump, and only then will he give
[34:23] Speaker 1: you any importance. You can't be a friend with an
[34:25] Speaker 1: independent point of view. Elon Musk was kicked out of
[34:31] Speaker 1: the US administration. I mean though, Trump has kind of,
[34:34] Speaker 1: you know, managed to cover up and say that he's
[34:37] Speaker 1: a good guy. And this guy who paid Trump's bills
[34:41] Speaker 1: and he kicked him out because he thought he was
[34:43] Speaker 1: being too big for his boots. He treats his friends,
[34:47] Speaker 1: he has no he has utter contempt for his friends,
[34:51] Speaker 1: and he only admires I feel strong men like Putin,
[34:57] Speaker 1: like Shi Jinping, like the North Korean dictator Kim And
[35:02] Speaker 1: these are the people that he actually thinks are He
[35:04] Speaker 1: wants to be like them, and he respects them, and
[35:07] Speaker 1: he respects strength. He's a classic bully, right, you know.
[35:10] Speaker 1: So that statement from them was a way of calling
[35:14] Speaker 1: out this bully on the block and that's what Trump is.
[35:19] Speaker 2: Yeah, So then the question is how do diplomats deal
[35:23] Speaker 2: with him? Do you think it's for them? And now
[35:26] Speaker 2: I'm talking specifically about the Indian diplomats and do you
[35:30] Speaker 2: think for them it's just a matter of riding the
[35:32] Speaker 2: way about. It's just like, you know, they know at
[35:33] Speaker 2: the back of their heads that it's just three and
[35:35] Speaker 2: a half years more of this guy. So you keep
[35:38] Speaker 2: US and Trump separate, you deal with Trump separately, and
[35:41] Speaker 2: you deal with the larger US, sorry, the country separately.
[35:46] Speaker 2: But the follow up question to that, does that same
[35:49] Speaker 2: sentiment also hold true for the State Department, because it's
[35:53] Speaker 2: only if you can deal with them in the future.
[35:55] Speaker 1: Well, you know, I think it's a good question. By
[35:58] Speaker 1: the way, I think what the Government of India's whope
[36:02] Speaker 1: would be now is to preserve the core of the
[36:05] Speaker 1: India US strategic partnership. It is an important partnership for US,
[36:09] Speaker 1: There's no doubt about it. It's you know, it comes
[36:12] Speaker 1: out of a common fear of you know, China, a
[36:15] Speaker 1: rise of China. We've never had a superpower at out doorstep, right,
[36:20] Speaker 1: and today we have that superpower over two thousand, five
[36:22] Speaker 1: hundred kilometers who is in a collusive partnership with another adversary.
[36:27] Speaker 1: So it's a two front situation for US, and it
[36:30] Speaker 1: helps for US to have partners from distant shores, which
[36:33] Speaker 1: is where the United States comes in and where of
[36:36] Speaker 1: course the Russian Federation also comes in. But it's a
[36:39] Speaker 1: tragedy that the Russian Federation and the Americans are at
[36:43] Speaker 1: digger's drawn right now. But the fact is that the
[36:45] Speaker 1: India US strategic partnership is far too important to be
[36:49] Speaker 1: sacrificed the altar of one man's whims and that is Trump.
[36:54] Speaker 1: And I think the diplomats in South Block would be
[36:57] Speaker 1: very careful now to ensure that the core of the
[37:00] Speaker 1: relationship is preserved, that Trump does not do more damage
[37:05] Speaker 1: beyond what he's already done. And they would, as you said,
[37:09] Speaker 1: write the storm out to the next three and a
[37:11] Speaker 1: half years and ensure that, you know, maybe the next
[37:14] Speaker 1: occupant into the White House in twenty twenty nine is
[37:17] Speaker 1: going to be a little more reasonable than Trump. And
[37:19] Speaker 1: Trump is not getting a third term, and thank god
[37:21] Speaker 1: for that. I imagine a third you know, Trump term.
[37:25] Speaker 1: The Trump believes that he is he can do he
[37:27] Speaker 1: can do it and in the Constitution he's going to change.
[37:30] Speaker 1: I'm sure he's going to go kick in, kicking and screaming.
[37:33] Speaker 1: He's not going to ride quietly into the night, and
[37:36] Speaker 1: very convinced about that. At some point he will start
[37:38] Speaker 1: making this thing of saying that he was actually cheated
[37:41] Speaker 1: out of his second term, therefore he deserves the third term.
[37:43] Speaker 1: You will see all that kind of infantilism coming out
[37:46] Speaker 1: of Washington very soon. But for our diplomats who actually
[37:51] Speaker 1: played it very you know, have played it very carefully.
[37:55] Speaker 1: You saw that statement came out after grave provocation, after
[37:59] Speaker 1: a series of stick means that came out. So we've
[38:01] Speaker 1: not we're not falling for We're not rising to his bait, right,
[38:05] Speaker 1: we are doing exactly what is in our national interests.
[38:08] Speaker 1: So there are, like I mentioned, there must be a
[38:10] Speaker 1: lot of consternation and what's going on there. But everyone's
[38:15] Speaker 1: pulling out their contingencies and you know, looking at the
[38:18] Speaker 1: kind of plans that they must have drawn up for what,
[38:22] Speaker 1: you know, what's the worst that could happen? What can
[38:24] Speaker 1: happen next? I hope they've made those contingencies right, and
[38:28] Speaker 1: this is something that they should have done right in
[38:29] Speaker 1: January twenty twenty five, if not earlier. That. What do
[38:34] Speaker 1: we do in case Trump targets us with tariffs? How
[38:37] Speaker 1: do you react to that? What are the levers that
[38:39] Speaker 1: you you know, pull, what are the buttons you press?
[38:42] Speaker 1: What are the carrots you dangle? All of that. Because
[38:45] Speaker 1: it's an elaborate playbook. It can't be done over a
[38:48] Speaker 1: few hours, or you know, you can't be seen as
[38:51] Speaker 1: responding to a tweet or something. You should have your
[38:54] Speaker 1: blueprint all, you know, charted out, and I think I
[38:59] Speaker 1: hope that they've done that. I sincerely hope they've done that.
[39:01] Speaker 1: If it gets worse than this, for instance, you should
[39:04] Speaker 1: actually plan. I did say that tariffs can be negotiated,
[39:08] Speaker 1: it can come down. What if they if he's absolutely
[39:12] Speaker 1: insistent on fifty and says that you have to open
[39:14] Speaker 1: up the agricultural sector. What happens then? Right? What do
[39:18] Speaker 1: we do? Then? Do we go back on the US
[39:21] Speaker 1: strategic partnership? What are the areas that you know we
[39:26] Speaker 1: can cause the US some pain? Can we ask for
[39:31] Speaker 1: certain agreements that we have with them? This is a
[39:33] Speaker 1: SAYSMOA and the LIMO and all of that, you know,
[39:37] Speaker 1: can we pause those? Can we tell State Department that
[39:41] Speaker 1: why didn't you you know, hold this guy back before
[39:44] Speaker 1: he damages He's so far he's hit the exterior of
[39:48] Speaker 1: the building. He's actually now going to enter the building
[39:51] Speaker 1: and cause a lot of trouble. And we've spent twenty
[39:53] Speaker 1: five years building this building. So you take a call
[39:56] Speaker 1: whether this is where you want the next twenty five
[39:58] Speaker 1: years to be right, because we have other countries like
[40:03] Speaker 1: the Russian Federation who are very happy to do business
[40:06] Speaker 1: with us, especially when it comes to the military relationship.
[40:10] Speaker 1: I mean, I asked one of the former Bramos dgis
[40:13] Speaker 1: who was there when the Russia Ukraine War began, and
[40:17] Speaker 1: he told me that, you know, despite Russia fighting the war,
[40:21] Speaker 1: despite them meeting their version of the BrahMos missile, which
[40:25] Speaker 1: is the Yakhan, they ensured that our supplies of that
[40:29] Speaker 1: engine didn't go down right the the the Ramjet engine
[40:33] Speaker 1: which is literally the heart of the BrahMos missile that
[40:35] Speaker 1: comes from Russia, which passed this Brumos to Mark III. Uh,
[40:39] Speaker 1: they ensured that supplies were all absolutely in order. There
[40:43] Speaker 1: were no supply chain issues on the site of the
[40:46] Speaker 1: sort that we faced with American fighter jet engines, the
[40:50] Speaker 1: G four zero fours. Uh. The Russians are pretty uh,
[40:54] Speaker 1: you know, reliable and dependable when it comes to hardware
[40:58] Speaker 1: sales because they know that they there is no history
[41:00] Speaker 1: of Russians squeezing as over arm cells, which is and
[41:05] Speaker 1: that's the reason that we love to do business with
[41:07] Speaker 1: the Russians. I think a lot of Westerners don't get that.
[41:11] Speaker 1: You know, while American equipment is sophisticated, the engines are
[41:14] Speaker 1: so good. They have extended lives and all that they
[41:16] Speaker 1: come with heavy strings attached. Right, So this is this
[41:21] Speaker 1: is the kind of uh, you know, contingency planning that
[41:24] Speaker 1: they must be doing. Now. I fear that the next
[41:27] Speaker 1: couple of months is going to be a rough and
[41:30] Speaker 1: rocky ride with trumpets. It is so unpredictable, and we've
[41:33] Speaker 1: just begun six months. It's three and a half years
[41:36] Speaker 1: to go, oh god, what now? What next? Yeah?
[41:40] Speaker 2: And in fact, even the esport hunted by there. It
[41:42] Speaker 2: was the some batteries were delivered during the Ukraine ward.
[41:44] Speaker 2: I think there was some day there, understandably so, but
[41:47] Speaker 2: they were of great use to wisiting operations, and the
[41:51] Speaker 2: Russians ensured.
[41:52] Speaker 1: That we had them.
[41:54] Speaker 2: A couple of last points on the one again on
[41:57] Speaker 2: the MAA statement and trying to sort of understand how
[42:00] Speaker 2: the world of diplomacy works. So when the count prospective
[42:05] Speaker 2: counterparts in the State Department must have read that statement.
[42:09] Speaker 2: What must have they taken from it? So I'm not
[42:11] Speaker 2: asking what Trump must have taken because Trump, like he
[42:13] Speaker 2: famously says, even he does not know at times what he's.
[42:15] Speaker 1: Thinking, and he proves that by the way.
[42:17] Speaker 2: But these are season diplomats right in the State Department,
[42:20] Speaker 2: So they must have seen mas first statement. They must
[42:23] Speaker 2: have seen me as second statement that came out last
[42:24] Speaker 2: night after the original tariffs. They must have seen PMO
[42:27] Speaker 2: these statement comments from earlier, this, earlier, earlier today. So
[42:31] Speaker 2: as a as a US diplomat, when you're reading such statements,
[42:34] Speaker 2: what do you take out of it?
[42:36] Speaker 1: Well, if I were reading it, I mean you just
[42:39] Speaker 1: have to read what the US diplomats have been writing this,
[42:42] Speaker 1: you know, the sensible ones, even Vegan Baumman, all of
[42:45] Speaker 1: those who actually helped put the India US relationship on
[42:48] Speaker 1: its tracks, and they are horrified by what they're seeing
[42:52] Speaker 1: over here, you know, like that slow motion car crash.
[42:56] Speaker 1: And it's it's not just the India US relationship. I
[42:58] Speaker 1: mean the Trump has done that to India, to the
[43:01] Speaker 1: US europe relationship, has done that with US, Canada. Every
[43:06] Speaker 1: country is antagonized, and you know, the US is not
[43:10] Speaker 1: the United States, it's not the most powerful country on earth,
[43:14] Speaker 1: but for its relationships with all of these countries, right,
[43:17] Speaker 1: it's always about alliances. For the United States. If you've noticed,
[43:21] Speaker 1: the US never goes into war on its own. It
[43:24] Speaker 1: always ensures that it has it builds up, you know,
[43:27] Speaker 1: a band of a Yeah, let's go and you know,
[43:31] Speaker 1: hammer Saddam or you know, beat up this guy, or
[43:34] Speaker 1: you know that it's always a coalition that they prefer
[43:37] Speaker 1: because you know, they don't want to be seen as
[43:40] Speaker 1: isolationists and you know, like the bully on the block
[43:43] Speaker 1: or something. They take people along with them. And I
[43:45] Speaker 1: think one of the most amazing things about US power,
[43:48] Speaker 1: which is the most powerful that any country has been
[43:51] Speaker 1: in the history of the world, eighty years since the
[43:54] Speaker 1: end of the Second World War in nineteen forty five.
[43:57] Speaker 1: This is the month that the war ended, August of
[44:00] Speaker 1: nineteen forty five years actually looking at the eightieth year
[44:03] Speaker 1: of that, that relationship, that pre eminence of American power
[44:09] Speaker 1: was crafted on alliances and relationships where you spoke to people,
[44:14] Speaker 1: you took them on board, you didn't speak down to them,
[44:18] Speaker 1: you took their concerns. You had you know, very very
[44:22] Speaker 1: good diplomacy at play that ensured that this network of
[44:26] Speaker 1: allies would be there, either in NATO or in other
[44:30] Speaker 1: partnerships that they've had with the Aucos and all of
[44:33] Speaker 1: those that would help the United States if they ever
[44:36] Speaker 1: went to war. They would need bases. Right, How does
[44:38] Speaker 1: a country like the United States, which is on the
[44:40] Speaker 1: other side of the world control events on the other
[44:44] Speaker 1: side and at different time zone. It needs basis, it
[44:46] Speaker 1: needs allies, it needs all of that. And Trump is
[44:49] Speaker 1: literally saying, I don't need any of this. You know,
[44:51] Speaker 1: it's me. It's me. It's just he's almost trying to
[44:56] Speaker 1: make America like him, like this big alone you know,
[45:00] Speaker 1: this neither feared nor loved kind of you know, bully
[45:04] Speaker 1: on the block, that kind of thing.
[45:07] Speaker 2: But I'm guessing the only saving rest agrees there then
[45:10] Speaker 2: is that just this one guy.
[45:12] Speaker 1: Most people understand that. So, like you were saying, the
[45:14] Speaker 1: State Department would definitely look, they've they've worked on this.
[45:17] Speaker 1: These are career you know, bureaucrats, career diplomats. They have
[45:22] Speaker 1: invested skin in the game. The India US strategic partnership
[45:26] Speaker 1: is not an accident. It's not that Bill Clinton came
[45:29] Speaker 1: in two thousand and March and him and Chelsea and
[45:33] Speaker 1: his wife Hillary, they looked at India and they saw this,
[45:37] Speaker 1: you know, lovely, beautiful democracy, and they decided to start this,
[45:41] Speaker 1: you know, big relationship with India. It's everything that the
[45:44] Speaker 1: United States does is carefully thought of. They built plans,
[45:48] Speaker 1: They look at the future, they see where the world
[45:50] Speaker 1: is headed, they see where economies are headed. At that time,
[45:55] Speaker 1: I don't think we were even in the top ten
[45:57] Speaker 1: economies of the world, and today we are in the
[45:59] Speaker 1: top five. And by the end of this decade, we're
[46:01] Speaker 1: going to be the third largest economy. So that's a
[46:03] Speaker 1: country that you want to have on your side. So
[46:06] Speaker 1: those diplomats are now going to ensure that, you know,
[46:09] Speaker 1: just as we in South Bloc and in Delhi and
[46:12] Speaker 1: in India are going to ride these three three and
[46:14] Speaker 1: a half years. Who knows what's going to happen. He
[46:16] Speaker 1: might land it up in Pakistan next, you know, on
[46:18] Speaker 1: our doorstep. So it's very unpredictable. You know, the only
[46:21] Speaker 1: thing predictable about Trump is his unpredictability. So you will
[46:25] Speaker 1: have diplomats now on both sides kind of talking to
[46:30] Speaker 1: each other, talking under Trump. Maybe some track two kind
[46:34] Speaker 1: of things, sending out word through say businesses or you know,
[46:37] Speaker 1: other track tools or think tanks to say, listen, is
[46:41] Speaker 1: there a way we can continue this relationship and ensure
[46:44] Speaker 1: that Trump doesn't cause too much of damage, because what
[46:47] Speaker 1: Trump actually is doing is that he wants to ensure
[46:50] Speaker 1: that there is going to be an administration that will
[46:56] Speaker 1: be you know, he believes that the current administration that
[46:58] Speaker 1: he inherited, for instance, is left liberal legacy, and therefore
[47:02] Speaker 1: MAGA is going to be the default setting and everything
[47:06] Speaker 1: is going to be burned down and they're going to
[47:07] Speaker 1: rebuild it all over again. So his aim is to
[47:10] Speaker 1: overthrow the bureaucracy that's not stood by his wishes and
[47:14] Speaker 1: not obeyed his commands. So our ideas that we want
[47:18] Speaker 1: those status scho is there in part because we are
[47:21] Speaker 1: very uncertain what kind of world is coming in with
[47:24] Speaker 1: you know, MAGA and all this kind of unpredictableness that
[47:27] Speaker 1: Trump has brought into the thing. And yeah, thank you
[47:31] Speaker 1: for your attention, thanks for attention.
[47:35] Speaker 2: In fact, you know, there's a theory that this slapping
[47:38] Speaker 2: around so to speak, of India that Trump is doing
[47:41] Speaker 2: is actually also to appeal to the MAGA base because
[47:43] Speaker 2: They're not very happy with what they perceived the US
[47:46] Speaker 2: sort of pandering to India their interests, especially with you
[47:49] Speaker 2: know a lot of Indian Americans holding positions of great power.
[47:53] Speaker 1: In the US, taking jobs is what they believe.
[47:55] Speaker 2: So yes, and you know, just to add to your
[47:58] Speaker 2: earlier point about the artists task that the role played
[48:02] Speaker 2: by bureaucrats to sort of have this relationship up and running.
[48:06] Speaker 2: I think if people are interested, they should read a
[48:08] Speaker 2: Shift Shunker Menon's if I'm not wronging, the book is
[48:10] Speaker 2: called Choices, where he talks about what actually went behind
[48:14] Speaker 2: behind closed doors to make the US INDO US a
[48:17] Speaker 2: nuclear deal happens history. It's a crazy champa.
[48:21] Speaker 1: That yes, it's chapter from his book and Shift Hunker
[48:24] Speaker 1: men And incidentally, UH played a very key role there,
[48:27] Speaker 1: and so did the then nc MK and a Ryan
[48:31] Speaker 1: and I did speak with him recently for a long
[48:34] Speaker 1: extended video call and when Prime Minism and Monsing had
[48:38] Speaker 1: passed away, and he told me that, look, we just
[48:41] Speaker 1: went to the United States to get some fuel for
[48:43] Speaker 1: our nuclear reactors, right because all our reactors were running
[48:47] Speaker 1: below capacity. We needed some fuel. We said, is there
[48:50] Speaker 1: some way that you can help us do this, and
[48:52] Speaker 1: they came up with this architecture that completely changed where
[48:56] Speaker 1: we are today as a nation, and in the sense
[48:59] Speaker 1: that we now have access to duel use technologies that
[49:04] Speaker 1: were not given to us in in you know, pre
[49:08] Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, which we now are. We're part
[49:12] Speaker 1: of a many, a large number of clubs that we
[49:15] Speaker 1: were not part of, party the Barsonar Agreement, the MTCR
[49:18] Speaker 1: Missile Technology Controlled Regime, and you know, all of those
[49:21] Speaker 1: nuclear supplier Group waivers we've got, so we now open
[49:25] Speaker 1: to buying uranium from wherever in the world. And you know,
[49:29] Speaker 1: and so does the United States, by the way, and
[49:31] Speaker 1: you saw that Scott Ritters tweet on how the United
[49:34] Speaker 1: States is actually buying the equivalent of two Russian armored
[49:37] Speaker 1: divisions every year. They're giving Russia what forty billion dollars,
[49:42] Speaker 1: They're buying stuff worth forty billion dollars from them. Talk
[49:45] Speaker 1: about double standards where you know, railing against US buying oil,
[49:48] Speaker 1: you're buying uranium from Russia for God's sake, the United States.
[49:52] Speaker 1: So the thing is that you know, this, this, this
[49:55] Speaker 1: is something that completely transformed the trajectory of India US
[50:01] Speaker 1: ties and that nuclear deal was a big deal. There
[50:03] Speaker 1: are of course commentators who say, oh no, it's nothing,
[50:05] Speaker 1: it's crippled, as it's made as a second rate nuclear
[50:08] Speaker 1: power and all of that. But I believe, at least
[50:10] Speaker 1: in the short term, in the last twenty years or something,
[50:13] Speaker 1: has given us huge enormous benefits in terms of access
[50:17] Speaker 1: to science and technology and countries that would never do
[50:20] Speaker 1: business with US earlier, never give us technology. I mean
[50:22] Speaker 1: the Japanese and Germans, for god, said they would never
[50:24] Speaker 1: sell us anything because I was so afraid of US
[50:26] Speaker 1: using it into the nuclear and the missile programs, and
[50:29] Speaker 1: of course space which is seen very closely allied with
[50:33] Speaker 1: the missile program. So it did bring us out of
[50:36] Speaker 1: the you know, the nuclear paradom that we were subject to.
[50:41] Speaker 1: But ever since we've not seen the next big leap
[50:45] Speaker 1: after the Indo US nuclear deal. I think the biggest
[50:49] Speaker 1: event since the Indo US Nuclear Deal has been the
[50:52] Speaker 1: Trump tariffic deal.
[50:54] Speaker 2: Right final thoughts on deeper, and this is about Indian
[50:58] Speaker 2: diplomacy in general, especially in the last few years. So
[51:01] Speaker 2: what we've seen is that it's a much more aggressive diplomacy.
[51:06] Speaker 2: It's very resolute in putting India first, and it believes
[51:10] Speaker 2: in a strong multilateralism philosophy. So people can argue that
[51:15] Speaker 2: that's historically been the case, but it's much more visible,
[51:18] Speaker 2: is what.
[51:18] Speaker 1: I'm trying to say in the last few years.
[51:21] Speaker 2: Apart from the push from the political authority the highest
[51:26] Speaker 2: levels the PMO and stuff like that, how much of
[51:29] Speaker 2: a role do you think the fact that we have,
[51:32] Speaker 2: for the first time in our history a career diplomat
[51:35] Speaker 2: serving as the Minister of External Affairs played in that.
[51:37] Speaker 2: Jashnker took on that charge in twenty nineteen. He's been
[51:40] Speaker 2: the minister since, and he was the ambassador to China
[51:45] Speaker 2: before that and to the US before that, So he's
[51:47] Speaker 2: very and the Foreign Secretary of course right before he
[51:49] Speaker 2: took charge as not right before, but before he took
[51:52] Speaker 2: charge as the Minister of External Affairs. So how much
[51:54] Speaker 2: of a role do you think he's played as somebody
[51:56] Speaker 2: who's a seasoned diplomat in shaping our diplomas in the last.
[52:00] Speaker 1: Well, I think Foreign Minister Jess Anchor has done exeedingly
[52:03] Speaker 1: well projecting the new and very aggressive and pro India,
[52:09] Speaker 1: uh you know, diplomacy that we've seen in the last
[52:12] Speaker 1: decade or so ever since he's been first Foreign Secretary
[52:16] Speaker 1: and then later Foreign Minister, and I think that was uh.
[52:20] Speaker 1: He's one of the key you know, movers and shakers
[52:23] Speaker 1: in this government, and they're literally if you're looking at
[52:26] Speaker 1: foreign policy and national security, there are literally two engines.
[52:30] Speaker 1: It's a double engine, sir car right, it's NSAVAL and
[52:34] Speaker 1: it's UH Foreign Minister jest Anker. So he's a very
[52:37] Speaker 1: key part of this. And I think one of the
[52:39] Speaker 1: reasons that he was chosen by Prime Minister Modi to
[52:41] Speaker 1: lead this was for his very outright, you know, forthright
[52:45] Speaker 1: views and the fact that he UH sees India as
[52:49] Speaker 1: having you know, arrived on the world stage and it's
[52:53] Speaker 1: not a country that can be pushed around anymore. And
[52:55] Speaker 1: I've known him ever since he was UH our ambassador
[52:59] Speaker 1: to Beijing, which is where I first met him, and
[53:03] Speaker 1: I was, you know, astonished at the you know, the
[53:06] Speaker 1: sheer breadth of knowledge that the man has, and you know,
[53:11] Speaker 1: he could speak on anything from Tom Clancy novels to
[53:16] Speaker 1: the LTT and you know, we had a very very
[53:18] Speaker 1: fascinating conversation. I mean the first time I met him,
[53:22] Speaker 1: I was given a half hour audience and that appointments
[53:28] Speaker 1: spilled over to more than an hour and a half
[53:29] Speaker 1: and that's when I realized that, you know, this is
[53:31] Speaker 1: someone who could you know, enormously benefit us as foreign secretary.
[53:35] Speaker 1: And I think the government of India has seen the
[53:39] Speaker 1: utility of him as a foreign minister in the way
[53:42] Speaker 1: he's able to project India's position on a number of issues,
[53:46] Speaker 1: especially the double standards. He's called out the European double
[53:50] Speaker 1: standards and yeah, he's been very so he is actually
[53:53] Speaker 1: literally the face of the kind of diplomacy that India
[53:57] Speaker 1: wants to project into the world. And it's not always
[54:00] Speaker 1: going to be you know, it's not uh, you know,
[54:04] Speaker 1: roses all the way. There are thorns as well. There
[54:07] Speaker 1: are times when our you know, diplomatic efforts might take
[54:10] Speaker 1: a set back. It might look like Pakistan as the
[54:12] Speaker 1: upper hand for various reasons. Right, But I think you
[54:18] Speaker 1: don't bet against India. The thing is that, you know,
[54:20] Speaker 1: you don't bet against the house. India is the house.
[54:23] Speaker 1: You might have Pakistan for you know, instant gratification or
[54:27] Speaker 1: some small little tactical deal that they'll give you some
[54:30] Speaker 1: air bases here, or a Nobel prize there, or massage
[54:33] Speaker 1: or ego or something like that. But India is the default setting, right.
[54:37] Speaker 1: It is simply too large, is simply too big to ignore.
[54:41] Speaker 1: And I think the United States also recognizes that, howsoever
[54:48] Speaker 1: insulting Trump's demeanor and tone might be, I think the
[54:51] Speaker 1: US realizes that it needs India, possibly more than India
[54:55] Speaker 1: needs the United States.
[54:57] Speaker 2: Yeah great then, and I think take away from that
[55:01] Speaker 2: a golden one is that perhaps down the road, when
[55:05] Speaker 2: Trump is not in office, India can use this period
[55:08] Speaker 2: as leverage. Can you remember back then what your president
[55:11] Speaker 2: did to us, give us that.
[55:12] Speaker 1: Yeah, he'll be here in town Trump Tower or something
[55:15] Speaker 1: that by then?
[55:16] Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah great then the thanks fantastic chatters always has
[55:21] Speaker 2: a lot of money. Yeah, and thanks to all our
[55:24] Speaker 2: listeners and viewers. That's it for this week's depends toes
[55:26] Speaker 2: for more. Tune in next week. Till then, stay safe
[55:28] Speaker 2: and not trust any boundaries.

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