# Tejas Delays: Can HAL deliver & what's the future for Indian Air Force's fighters? | IOD, S02, Ep 58

An episode of [In Our Defence](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1617244439), 5 Mar 2025, 53 min.

Audio: https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/64712001/05_mar_25_iod_5th_march_128.mp3

With deliveries of the Tejas Mk1A fighter jet delayed by nearly a year, big questions remains on what it will take to plug the Indian Air Force's fighter jet shortfall. What will it take for the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited to get the Tejas production line up and running at the speed that the Indian Air Force requires? Is the entry of the private sector to help boost the production of the indigenous fighter jet all but a given now? Also, is there serious thought being put to figuring a roadmap to ensure that the Air Force is never faced with such a capability and technology gap? Host Dev Goswami and defence expert Shiv Aroor discuss and analyse these questions as they bring the second season of In Our Defence to a close. The two talk about how the Tejas project is just right on the horizon but not quite there yet and how this is going to be the proverbial do-or-die moment of the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited. The two also look at some of the tough decisions that military planners in the government will be faced with as they attempt to figure out a roadmap for the Indian Air Force's future fighter jet inductions. Tune in as Dev and Shiv break down a topic that became the top focus over the courwse of In Our Defence's Season 2. Produced by Prateek Lidhoo Sound mix by Rohan Bharti

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: This committee that's been set up by the Ministry of
[0:02] Speaker 1: Defense under the Defense Secretary takes place in the context
[0:06] Speaker 1: of this quote unquote dirty linen being in full public view,
[0:11] Speaker 1: so everyone sort of knows what's going on. This is
[0:14] Speaker 1: not This is no longer some you know, esoteric, secretive
[0:19] Speaker 1: kind of story. It's something that has hit the front
[0:22] Speaker 1: pages of national newspapers and is the big headline from
[0:25] Speaker 1: the world of defense this year. There is no universe,
[0:28] Speaker 1: I would say, in which HL or anybody you know
[0:31] Speaker 1: talking about HL can say that, you know, give these
[0:34] Speaker 1: guys a break, you know, they've never done this at scale,
[0:37] Speaker 1: or this is our own aircraft therefore brings its own complexities.
[0:39] Speaker 1: I reject that completely. Even ten years from now, nobody
[0:43] Speaker 1: is going to cut HL any slack as far as
[0:45] Speaker 1: that is concerned, because, like I said, HL has enjoyed
[0:49] Speaker 1: the fruits of unbridled monopoly. For HL, this means, you know,
[0:55] Speaker 1: a kind of unthinkable prospect. As far as the tag's
[0:59] Speaker 1: program is concern, the TAGS has been a captive manufacturing
[1:04] Speaker 1: project for Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, and it has never in
[1:09] Speaker 1: its mind, you know, wargamed situation where any part of
[1:12] Speaker 1: that is going to go to somebody else completely. The
[1:15] Speaker 1: way HL is configured is it is the mothership, It
[1:18] Speaker 1: is the lead integrator, it is the the mother manufacturer
[1:22] Speaker 1: of this aircraft. And all these these satellite companies standing
[1:26] Speaker 1: around will build parts and send them in and we
[1:28] Speaker 1: will integrate them and supply them to the Air Force.
[1:30] Speaker 1: Nobody else will do that. Now you've got the possibility
[1:33] Speaker 1: of a private sector becoming a kind of MINIHL to
[1:36] Speaker 1: build combat aircraft, which has never happened in the past.
[1:38] Speaker 1: It's unprecedented that this is even being thought about. The
[1:42] Speaker 1: harsh reality is that the Air Force needs numbers quickly.
[1:46] Speaker 1: Uh uh. And those numbers are going to hopefully be
[1:49] Speaker 1: made up by the TAGES. That committee is going to
[1:51] Speaker 1: recommend the theys ASAPP program.
[1:54] Speaker 2: Uh.
[1:55] Speaker 1: And then you've got the MRFA, which will have to
[1:57] Speaker 1: provide that uh, you know, short term boost of strength.
[2:01] Speaker 1: I don't want to use the word stop gap anymore
[2:03] Speaker 1: because it's it's become a joke. Nothing should be seen
[2:06] Speaker 1: as a stop gap, because fighter aircraft, you know, are
[2:09] Speaker 1: not party toys that you know, you use for a
[2:11] Speaker 1: while and throwaway. They're going to be with you for
[2:13] Speaker 1: thirty forty Yeah, maybe even fifty years.
[2:17] Speaker 3: Hello and welcome to Another Defense, a weekly podcast on
[2:20] Speaker 3: all things well defense where I They've go Swami, your host,
[2:25] Speaker 3: along with senior journalist Schevaru, break down the world of
[2:28] Speaker 3: conflicts that range from the subtle to the brutal. We
[2:31] Speaker 3: bring you nuances and perspectives that will inform and at
[2:34] Speaker 3: times provoke. This is in Our Defense. Hello and welcome.
[2:42] Speaker 3: This is the fifty eighth episode of an Offense, and
[2:44] Speaker 3: this is going to be the last episode of season
[2:46] Speaker 3: two of In a Defense Shift. And you know, in
[2:50] Speaker 3: the proud traditions of all things Indian defense procurement, we're
[2:54] Speaker 3: ending this season or not a round number, you know,
[2:57] Speaker 3: ordering six thirty six chairs or ninety seventh ages or
[3:01] Speaker 3: in thirty one drones and not around number. Similarly, I
[3:04] Speaker 3: think in that proud tradition, even in Our Defense season
[3:06] Speaker 3: two will and not on sixty on a fifty five
[3:09] Speaker 3: on fifty fifth source.
[3:11] Speaker 1: Yeah, so our listeners and viewers have come to expect that.
[3:16] Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, so we kind of you know, first of all,
[3:21] Speaker 3: you know, before we begin this episode, I actually want
[3:23] Speaker 3: to thank you, and I think a lot of our
[3:25] Speaker 3: listeners and viewers will agree because over the course of
[3:28] Speaker 3: the fifty eight episodes, so fifty seven so far, fifty
[3:31] Speaker 3: eight will be this one, not just them. I think
[3:34] Speaker 3: I've also learned loads and loads from you because of
[3:37] Speaker 3: your vast experience and sort of your insight that you
[3:39] Speaker 3: have that I think at times you're not able to
[3:41] Speaker 3: sort of write about or really talk about in your
[3:44] Speaker 3: daily daily in your day job, in your daily reporting
[3:48] Speaker 3: because of various factors. I think this kind of gave
[3:51] Speaker 3: that space to sort of like, you know, look back,
[3:53] Speaker 3: think back and give us those heard hitting insights that
[3:56] Speaker 3: we are really thankful for. So thanks a lot for that, and.
[3:59] Speaker 1: You know, in these discussion Dave, I have to say
[4:01] Speaker 1: that I've learned a lot as well, because researching for
[4:05] Speaker 1: a podcast is a whole different ballgame from TV or
[4:08] Speaker 1: writing because we've got so many listeners who hang on
[4:13] Speaker 1: to every word we say, so it's very very important,
[4:16] Speaker 1: especially to get it right. So I think this podcast
[4:19] Speaker 1: for me has also been a big learning experience. You know,
[4:23] Speaker 1: there have been times when I've said something that may
[4:24] Speaker 1: not have been correct, and there's instant you know, there's
[4:27] Speaker 1: an instant correction, and so yeah, it's been very enjoyable
[4:30] Speaker 1: for me as well, Right, right.
[4:32] Speaker 3: So as we end this season now, we're gonna, like
[4:35] Speaker 3: I discussed in the previous episode, We're going to focus
[4:37] Speaker 3: on the big question. I think that's been the theme
[4:40] Speaker 3: of season two Off and Air Defense is what to
[4:42] Speaker 3: do and how do you solve the Indian forces problems
[4:45] Speaker 3: of not having enough fighter jets in a fighter jets squadrons.
[4:49] Speaker 3: I think, apart from whether or not the Indian Navy
[4:52] Speaker 3: should get a third aircraft carried, I think this is
[4:54] Speaker 3: the big question that right now is I think the
[4:58] Speaker 3: big question that the government, the Defence Ministry, that the
[5:01] Speaker 3: Air Force, all the three militaries, the Chief of Defense
[5:04] Speaker 3: Staff Office are dealing with grappling with because there are
[5:07] Speaker 3: many options, not many options, but there are many different pathways.
[5:10] Speaker 3: I think in a previous episode you talked about that
[5:12] Speaker 3: can be taken and it's not really clear which one
[5:15] Speaker 3: do you want to go down the road.
[5:17] Speaker 1: Uh.
[5:18] Speaker 3: I think the two big questions, uh, like we've talked
[5:22] Speaker 3: about on this on this on this season, UH, the
[5:24] Speaker 3: Tagous program UH, for all its faults, for all its delays,
[5:28] Speaker 3: has kind of come to that tipping point where it's
[5:31] Speaker 3: just there, but it's still not there yet.
[5:33] Speaker 1: UH.
[5:33] Speaker 3: And you still don't quite know what you need to
[5:36] Speaker 3: do that that next step to ensure that those jets
[5:39] Speaker 3: just start rolling in that and that that gap is fulfilled.
[5:42] Speaker 3: And the other big question of what is going to
[5:45] Speaker 3: be your either the next purchase or the next development
[5:48] Speaker 3: when it comes to the futuristic fifth generation aircraft. Do
[5:51] Speaker 3: you go for an all out purchase from let's say
[5:53] Speaker 3: the US or Europe or maybe Russia, but Russia do
[5:55] Speaker 3: iscovered in a previous episode, or you focus on you know,
[5:58] Speaker 3: building it in your in your in your country. Uh So,
[6:01] Speaker 3: these are the two big questions, and I think, like
[6:03] Speaker 3: we're discussing before this recording, these are the things. This
[6:06] Speaker 3: is sort of sort of a do or time moment
[6:08] Speaker 3: with interesting this question. So we'll focus on that on
[6:10] Speaker 3: this last episode. Let's ticktages at first. Like I said,
[6:13] Speaker 3: it's come to the tipping point.
[6:15] Speaker 1: It's there.
[6:16] Speaker 3: It's been more or less tested, the Mark one especially,
[6:19] Speaker 3: but Delivious not coming in because certain certain issues. There's
[6:22] Speaker 3: a new committee to look into that, which is a
[6:24] Speaker 3: bit weird because I think just four or five, maybe
[6:27] Speaker 3: six episodes ago, we discussed about one another committee that
[6:30] Speaker 3: had been set up by the Government of India to
[6:32] Speaker 3: look into the Air Force's overall issue of not having
[6:35] Speaker 3: enough fighter jet So this is sort of I'm guessing
[6:37] Speaker 3: like a tangent from there, and you know, okay, we'll
[6:39] Speaker 3: discuss that later, but first let's figure out how to
[6:42] Speaker 3: get in order. So before we welve into about HL
[6:47] Speaker 3: and you know, tages and you know what could be
[6:48] Speaker 3: the future, tell us about what's this company on the
[6:51] Speaker 3: group we don't do now.
[6:52] Speaker 1: My first reaction they've was was exactly like yours when
[6:57] Speaker 1: I heard about this committee, which was all my eyes
[7:00] Speaker 1: because you know how many committees have we actually seen,
[7:04] Speaker 1: uh figure out things that should have been figured out
[7:08] Speaker 1: a long time back, and you know, the compounding problems, delays, overruns,
[7:14] Speaker 1: whatever it is, has led to you know, a kind
[7:17] Speaker 1: of instinctive systemic response which seems to believe that just
[7:22] Speaker 1: setting up committees and kicking decisions down the road seems
[7:25] Speaker 1: to be the order of the day. Uh. The the
[7:28] Speaker 1: you know, that's the that's the that's the bad news.
[7:31] Speaker 1: The good news is, uh, as as some bureaucrats have
[7:34] Speaker 1: you know, called to tell me, is that committees, when
[7:38] Speaker 1: they work, can actually be very very effective. Now, this
[7:41] Speaker 1: particular committee, UH is headed by the Defense Secretary. Uh.
[7:46] Speaker 1: The atmosphere under which this committee has been set up
[7:49] Speaker 1: is a is a particularly hostile one because you've got uh,
[7:55] Speaker 1: the Air Force Chief, as we said, as we you know,
[7:58] Speaker 1: detailed in our previous episode. Uh you know he he
[8:02] Speaker 1: he scolded hl you know, rebuked them publicly, pulled them up,
[8:07] Speaker 1: you know, in front of the entire world, hit the
[8:09] Speaker 1: front pages for that episode that went viral. Uh. So
[8:13] Speaker 1: this committee that's been set up by the Ministry of
[8:15] Speaker 1: Defense under the Defense Secretary takes place in the context
[8:19] Speaker 1: of uh, this quote unquote dirty linen being in full
[8:24] Speaker 1: public view, so everyone uh sort of knows what's going on.
[8:28] Speaker 1: And this is not this is no longer some uh
[8:31] Speaker 1: you know, esoteric, secretive kind of story. It's something that
[8:35] Speaker 1: has hit the front pages of national newspapers and is
[8:38] Speaker 1: the is the big headline from the world of defense
[8:42] Speaker 1: this year. Uh. The again, the good news is that
[8:46] Speaker 1: this this uh, this committee headed by the Defense Secretary,
[8:50] Speaker 1: has to submit its recommendations and an action plan in March,
[8:55] Speaker 1: in early March, which means it's not a you know,
[8:59] Speaker 1: it's not an endless committee which has been given you know,
[9:02] Speaker 1: six months or a year to come up with a plan.
[9:04] Speaker 1: And you know, even then, there is no real promise
[9:07] Speaker 1: that its recommendations will be implemented.
[9:09] Speaker 3: Uh.
[9:10] Speaker 1: I've been given to believe that this is an empowered committee,
[9:12] Speaker 1: which means it's recommendations. Uh. You know, HL and the
[9:18] Speaker 1: other organizations involved have to commit to implementing those recommendations
[9:22] Speaker 1: since they come from you know, the top bureaucrat of
[9:25] Speaker 1: the Ministry of Defense. Uh. The terms of reference of
[9:29] Speaker 1: this committee are are you know, they're not a surprise,
[9:33] Speaker 1: they are They are exactly the problems that the Air
[9:36] Speaker 1: Chief has listed that we've been talking about over the
[9:40] Speaker 1: last quite a few episodes as well, which is that
[9:43] Speaker 1: how do you get the tagus in faster? It's as
[9:46] Speaker 1: simple as that, or as I called it on TV,
[9:49] Speaker 1: the Tagus ASAP Committee, okay, uh, And there's no better
[9:53] Speaker 1: way to describe it. This committee is basically going to uh,
[9:58] Speaker 1: you know, formulate a you know, a set of recommendations
[10:01] Speaker 1: by which HL can begin delivering its stages mark one,
[10:06] Speaker 1: A fighters eighty three of them which were ordered a
[10:09] Speaker 1: couple of years ago, a few years ago, faster and
[10:12] Speaker 1: to achieve a production and delivery rate of anywhere between
[10:17] Speaker 1: twenty four and thirty aircraft per year. Twenty four aircraft
[10:22] Speaker 1: is what HL says its peak capacity will be. It
[10:26] Speaker 1: could reach thirty if the private sector is harnessed in
[10:29] Speaker 1: a big way. Now we'll get into the pros and
[10:33] Speaker 1: cons of private sector in a moment, but overall, the
[10:36] Speaker 1: broad picture is that this committee under the Defense Secretary
[10:40] Speaker 1: will likely recommend an action plan which directly involves the
[10:45] Speaker 1: private sector in one way. Now, for those who may
[10:48] Speaker 1: not be aware, the private sector is already involved in
[10:51] Speaker 1: a very big way with the tagers. You know, there
[10:53] Speaker 1: are big and small companies that make significant portions of
[10:58] Speaker 1: the tages already. You know, front assembly, mid assembly, back assembly,
[11:03] Speaker 1: you know, fuselage parts of all kinds. You know, whether
[11:06] Speaker 1: it is datas, whether it is L and T, whether
[11:09] Speaker 1: it is you know, companies like WEM Technologies, whether it's
[11:12] Speaker 1: companies like Dynamatics. All of these companies not now, but
[11:16] Speaker 1: for years have been, have been, you know, producing and
[11:19] Speaker 1: delivering parts of the pages which HL then integrates into
[11:22] Speaker 1: the entire aircraft. What HL has been looking to do
[11:26] Speaker 1: now in order to get that production rate up right now,
[11:29] Speaker 1: the production rate is is nothing to boast about getting
[11:33] Speaker 1: the production rate to twenty four aircraft a year is
[11:36] Speaker 1: going to be a challenge between production lines in Bengaluru
[11:40] Speaker 1: as well as Nashik. Now there is talk of HL
[11:45] Speaker 1: wanting to receive fully assembled fuselages from the private sector,
[11:49] Speaker 1: which will then allow it to ramp up its production
[11:53] Speaker 1: rate and delivery to the Air Force by an even
[11:56] Speaker 1: larger number. HL chairman doctor D. K. Sril has been
[11:59] Speaker 1: quoted in a interview of saying that if they are
[12:03] Speaker 1: able to get that private sector participation right, if they're
[12:06] Speaker 1: able to utilize private sector capacity in companies like L
[12:09] Speaker 1: and T and Tata, et cetera, he believes that he
[12:12] Speaker 1: can achieve a production and delivery rate of thirty aircraft
[12:15] Speaker 1: a year. Now. Many in the Air Force right now
[12:18] Speaker 1: will be scoffing and rolling their eyes and saying twenty four.
[12:24] Speaker 1: You know, instead of aiming for higher than that. You know,
[12:26] Speaker 1: at least achieve what you've said you will achieve before
[12:29] Speaker 1: talking of higher numbers. You know, many many in the
[12:32] Speaker 1: Air Force justifiably, you know, see this as you know,
[12:36] Speaker 1: attempting to do more than you've promised, misplaced optimism and
[12:40] Speaker 1: things like that. And HL understandably is in a difficult
[12:43] Speaker 1: position because all eyes are on them you know, the
[12:47] Speaker 1: systems glare is on them, the public glare is on them,
[12:50] Speaker 1: and therefore, for them, this is a this is a
[12:52] Speaker 1: trial by fire, It's a litmus test in many ways,
[12:55] Speaker 1: It's a do or die kind of situation as far
[12:57] Speaker 1: as HL is concerned, because the relationship with with the
[13:00] Speaker 1: with the Air Force, you know, has it's not a
[13:04] Speaker 1: happy place right now, like we discussed in the last episode.
[13:07] Speaker 1: So this committee is going to sort of cut through
[13:10] Speaker 1: all the you know, cut through the atmosphere of emotions
[13:16] Speaker 1: that have sort of taken over this story over the
[13:17] Speaker 1: last one month, and provide a serious, actionable roadmap as
[13:23] Speaker 1: to how HL can begin delivering the stages fighters to
[13:29] Speaker 1: the satisfaction of the Air.
[13:30] Speaker 3: Force, right right, Yeah, I think that's perfect the way
[13:33] Speaker 3: you describe it and the way you say it's sort
[13:34] Speaker 3: of a dow Wo time movement for HL. And yeah,
[13:38] Speaker 3: the private sector bit is going to be a focus
[13:40] Speaker 3: on this on this episode. But before we get to that,
[13:44] Speaker 3: I wanted to actually talk to you also about you know,
[13:47] Speaker 3: the two of us are talking about this in the
[13:49] Speaker 3: moment we are, you know, sort of discussing the developments
[13:52] Speaker 3: as in when they happen. So Obviously emotions are involved.
[13:55] Speaker 3: Obviously our paches are also in the moment. Not with
[13:58] Speaker 3: the benefit of hindsight, I wanted to I was wondering,
[14:02] Speaker 3: and I was wondering, why the wood You would agree
[14:04] Speaker 3: with me that perhaps a decade down the line, maybe
[14:06] Speaker 3: a few years down the line, we would look back then,
[14:10] Speaker 3: with the benefit of hindsight and say that these were
[14:14] Speaker 3: all just teething issues. Because this is the first time
[14:17] Speaker 3: you as a country are developing a fighter jet, which
[14:20] Speaker 3: you know, in a previous episode you've described a highly
[14:22] Speaker 3: highly complex, complex project. Uh, this is the first time
[14:26] Speaker 3: you're developing a fighter jet of this magnitude at the scale. Uh.
[14:30] Speaker 3: Right now, we know that, like you previously said, HL
[14:33] Speaker 3: has you know, for for long. When a cookie cutter
[14:36] Speaker 3: like you, like you like to like like to say
[14:38] Speaker 3: it where basically it gets the designs and gets the
[14:41] Speaker 3: sort of the blueprint of what an aircraft should look like,
[14:43] Speaker 3: and it sort of assembles them over a year. How
[14:46] Speaker 3: different is that compared to what HL is trying to
[14:49] Speaker 3: do now when it comes to developing your own fighter jet,
[14:52] Speaker 3: getting those components from all over the country and assembling
[14:55] Speaker 3: it at your own you know, sort of factory. Of course,
[14:57] Speaker 3: the engine is coming from the US. That's a separate matter.
[15:00] Speaker 3: So yeah, my question to you and my what I
[15:03] Speaker 3: wonder a few years down the line, will we look
[15:05] Speaker 3: back and you know, kind of give it the benefit
[15:08] Speaker 3: of doubt that, hey, what you achieved at the end,
[15:11] Speaker 3: even though the ever delays was a fantastic thing.
[15:13] Speaker 1: No, uh, this is a very good question there, and
[15:15] Speaker 1: I'm glad you asked it. I don't think HL will
[15:19] Speaker 1: have the luxury of hiding behind uh the argument that
[15:22] Speaker 1: building a fighter aircraft is a very complex uh uh
[15:26] Speaker 1: you know proposition, and that building your own fighter aircraft
[15:30] Speaker 1: at this scale, uh, you know, is very different from
[15:33] Speaker 1: what you've done before. The kookie cutter argument is absolutely
[15:36] Speaker 1: right because HL has so far been building somebody else's
[15:40] Speaker 1: fighter aircraft. Uh you know, they've been building aircraft from
[15:43] Speaker 1: you know, from from wherever, from Russia or uh you know,
[15:47] Speaker 1: Russia or the United Kingdom or wherever. But uh, if
[15:51] Speaker 1: you if you sort of zoom in, even the Tajas
[15:54] Speaker 1: is not an h aircraft. The TAGS was developed by
[15:57] Speaker 1: the Aeronautical Development Age and see HL is uh you know,
[16:02] Speaker 1: is the lead integration the manufacturer of the aircraft.
[16:06] Speaker 3: Uh.
[16:06] Speaker 1: It is of course involved in some in some ways
[16:08] Speaker 1: in the development, especially in the Tagers Mark one A.
[16:11] Speaker 1: But but the the Tages is not an hl uh
[16:16] Speaker 1: fighter like the mar Ruth Wars, right uh so, so uh,
[16:21] Speaker 1: I don't want to say that it's the same thing.
[16:23] Speaker 1: It's not. HL is not certainly not cookie cutting the Tages,
[16:26] Speaker 1: but uh uh it is uh it's just another fighter
[16:30] Speaker 1: aircraft that it is manufacturing in very similar fashion, with
[16:34] Speaker 1: the same amounts of complexities and uh uh and things
[16:38] Speaker 1: like that. Of course, with the added benefits that everything
[16:41] Speaker 1: is here in India, doesn't have to look abroad for anything.
[16:44] Speaker 3: All of the.
[16:44] Speaker 1: People who developed the fighters are right here, you know,
[16:47] Speaker 1: within you know, whether a few hundred meters or a
[16:49] Speaker 1: few hundred kilometers away. Having said that, uh, HL is
[16:55] Speaker 1: not a newborn baby when it comes to even the
[16:58] Speaker 1: manufacturer of the Tages. The that they just mark one,
[17:01] Speaker 1: thirty six have been delivered so far. The four remaining
[17:04] Speaker 1: trainers will be delivered very soon. Thirty six aircraft, first
[17:08] Speaker 1: of all, is not a small number. And those thirty
[17:10] Speaker 1: six aircraft are all production series aircraft, which means those
[17:15] Speaker 1: are not limited series production, those are not prototypes. Those
[17:19] Speaker 1: are you know, full rate production aircraft that have been
[17:23] Speaker 1: delivered to the Indian Air Force in batches, which means
[17:25] Speaker 1: that HL knows how to build these fighters. There is
[17:28] Speaker 1: no doubt that HL has the know how, the capacity,
[17:32] Speaker 1: the the you know, the the the engineering, the engineering
[17:36] Speaker 1: competence and all all the other skill sets required to
[17:40] Speaker 1: build these fighters. So there is no there is no
[17:43] Speaker 1: universe I would say, in which HL or anybody you
[17:47] Speaker 1: know talking about HL can say that, you know, give
[17:49] Speaker 1: these guys a break, you know, they've never done this
[17:51] Speaker 1: at scale, or this is our own aircraft therefore brings
[17:54] Speaker 1: its own complexities. I reject that completely. Even ten years
[17:58] Speaker 1: from now, nobody is going to cut HL any slack
[18:01] Speaker 1: as far as that is concerned, because, like I said,
[18:04] Speaker 1: HL has enjoyed the fruits of unbridled monopoly in this country.
[18:11] Speaker 1: Uh And so by now for them, for anyone to
[18:14] Speaker 1: defend HL by saying that, you know, come on, yeah,
[18:17] Speaker 1: you know, go easy on them. They they've never done
[18:20] Speaker 1: it at this scale is is ludicrous. They don't deserve
[18:23] Speaker 1: that kind of uh you know, margin at all. But
[18:28] Speaker 1: the truth is HL is fighting back. You know, a
[18:32] Speaker 1: wake up call is a wake up call as far
[18:33] Speaker 1: as HL is concerned, and I strongly believe that this
[18:37] Speaker 1: do or die situation in many ways is and I'll
[18:41] Speaker 1: qualify why I call it a do or die situation
[18:44] Speaker 1: one because this committee that we're talking about is uh
[18:48] Speaker 1: involving the private sector, is about involving the private sector
[18:51] Speaker 1: in a bigger way. Now, in a previous episode, we've
[18:54] Speaker 1: talked extensively about how for HLU, you know, a relationship
[18:59] Speaker 1: with the private sector has always been there. It has
[19:02] Speaker 1: always outsourced vast amounts of work to the private sector.
[19:06] Speaker 1: But at no point has that dynamic been HL competing
[19:10] Speaker 1: with that private sector. Okay, and with the C two
[19:13] Speaker 1: ninety five, you know, a production facility in Wadodra Gujrat,
[19:18] Speaker 1: that dynamic has completely changed. Where HL now views the
[19:22] Speaker 1: private sector not as a place where it can delegate
[19:26] Speaker 1: work to and get assemblies and you know, help its
[19:29] Speaker 1: own order book grow, but as a sector where it
[19:33] Speaker 1: could lose business to literally lose business to. There are
[19:37] Speaker 1: skeptics who say, what are you talking about. You know,
[19:40] Speaker 1: after a couple of episodes ago, people who are saying,
[19:43] Speaker 1: you think the private sector is a kind of miraculous
[19:46] Speaker 1: cure to all production issues. Of course, it's not and
[19:50] Speaker 1: I'll get into a little bit more detail into that,
[19:52] Speaker 1: because there is some substance to that. But for HL
[19:55] Speaker 1: to now view this committee, they will be looking at
[19:58] Speaker 1: this committee and thinking this committee is going to basically
[20:02] Speaker 1: uh accelerate and probably elevate the amount of work that
[20:07] Speaker 1: the private sector is going to take on, because the
[20:09] Speaker 1: private sector has an enormous amount of potential capacity that
[20:13] Speaker 1: can be used to build parts of the TAGES in
[20:17] Speaker 1: order to take some of the burden of HL. Now,
[20:20] Speaker 1: none of this is as easy as it sounds, because
[20:22] Speaker 1: building capacity takes months and years. It's not like uh
[20:26] Speaker 1: oh L and D is going to build this cello
[20:27] Speaker 1: from tomorrow start delivering this stuff. It's gonna it takes
[20:30] Speaker 1: a long time to you know, do the tooling, you know,
[20:33] Speaker 1: fix up factories facilities for something as complicated as a
[20:37] Speaker 1: fighter aircraft. But according to the reports, like you said,
[20:40] Speaker 1: there's talk of possibly a fresh production line being completely
[20:44] Speaker 1: under the private sector. Again, easier said than done, but
[20:48] Speaker 1: for HL, this means uh, you know, a kind of
[20:52] Speaker 1: unthinkable prospect as far as the TAGES program is concerned.
[20:56] Speaker 1: The THEAGES has been a captive manufacturing project for Hindustan
[21:02] Speaker 1: Aeronautics Limited, and it has never in its mind, you know,
[21:07] Speaker 1: wargamed situation where any part of that is going to
[21:10] Speaker 1: go to somebody else. Completely. The way HL is configured
[21:13] Speaker 1: is it is the mothership, It is the lead integrator,
[21:16] Speaker 1: It is the the mother manufacturer of this aircraft. And
[21:21] Speaker 1: all these these satellite companies standing around will build parts
[21:25] Speaker 1: and send them in and we will integrate them and
[21:27] Speaker 1: supply them to the Air Force. Nobody else will do that.
[21:29] Speaker 1: Now you've got the possibility of a private sector becoming
[21:32] Speaker 1: a kind of MINIHL to build combat aircraft, which has
[21:35] Speaker 1: never happened in the past. It's unprecedented that this is
[21:38] Speaker 1: even being thought about now. Obviously, such a facility, if
[21:41] Speaker 1: it even happens, cannot come up overnight. It will come
[21:44] Speaker 1: up many years later. It may be it may be
[21:47] Speaker 1: for the tags mark too, It may be for the
[21:49] Speaker 1: second order of the just the you know ninety seven
[21:52] Speaker 1: that are going to be also ordered of that they
[21:53] Speaker 1: just mark one A. All of these permutations and combinations
[21:56] Speaker 1: are possible because we have to admit that we star
[22:00] Speaker 1: we don't know what the committee is actually going to
[22:01] Speaker 1: recommend until those recommendations land. So for HL, there is
[22:07] Speaker 1: a cultural shift happening there is. It has to completely
[22:13] Speaker 1: alter the way it is thinking. And that's not easy
[22:15] Speaker 1: for a PSU, very very difficult for a large circari
[22:19] Speaker 1: company to make peace with the new normal and the
[22:23] Speaker 1: new reality. There are those who will say that, you know,
[22:28] Speaker 1: these are market forces, and you know HL is a
[22:31] Speaker 1: professionally run company and they would have expected this kind
[22:34] Speaker 1: of thing to happen. That's true. And while that is true,
[22:37] Speaker 1: there is a sense of complacency in PSUs which feel that, look,
[22:42] Speaker 1: ultimately we are a Cercari government organization. Ultimately we come
[22:46] Speaker 1: under the mod and therefore our interests will be protected.
[22:50] Speaker 1: The problem is a definition of those interests. The interests
[22:54] Speaker 1: have to be with the customer, not with the company.
[22:56] Speaker 1: The interests have to be whether they just is delivered
[22:59] Speaker 1: on time to the air was not, whether HL is
[23:01] Speaker 1: getting those orders or not, or whether not whether HL
[23:05] Speaker 1: is manufacturing all those aircraft or not, or whether you
[23:07] Speaker 1: know quality control is complete or not. So I think
[23:11] Speaker 1: that's the reason why for HL looking at this committee
[23:14] Speaker 1: is not going to be an easy prospect. But from
[23:17] Speaker 1: the you know, from from at least the words that
[23:19] Speaker 1: we've heard from the chairman UH you know from people
[23:22] Speaker 1: have spoken to NHL, they're kind of biting their teeth
[23:25] Speaker 1: and preparing themselves for you know, life after this committee now,
[23:30] Speaker 1: because it's going to recommend things that will completely change
[23:33] Speaker 1: things for HL.
[23:34] Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I quit get that because I mean to
[23:37] Speaker 3: take your thought forward. If this committee was about protecting
[23:40] Speaker 3: hl's interest, the committee would then be looking inside HL
[23:43] Speaker 3: to see, yeah, catch change car sector so that TACH
[23:46] Speaker 3: just comes on time, and not like looking only solely
[23:48] Speaker 3: the topic of CAC or sect the head generally to
[23:51] Speaker 3: get these sometimes because that is a parity, and the
[23:53] Speaker 3: priority is not to ensoy HL delivers, it's to ensure
[23:56] Speaker 3: if it comes from melanity well and good the the project,
[23:59] Speaker 3: like you keep tetelling us that you know you've seen
[24:01] Speaker 3: it throughout your career. Is it the last instance of
[24:05] Speaker 3: us seeing a project totally under government control a fighter
[24:08] Speaker 3: project or any big defense defense equipment manufacturing project. Uh
[24:13] Speaker 3: and the private sector, regardless of what the committary or
[24:16] Speaker 3: recommends for teachers per se, because that could just be
[24:18] Speaker 3: like you know, like we discussed, it's only for this
[24:20] Speaker 3: particular instance, only for theages, because we need those aircraft
[24:23] Speaker 3: very badly. The recommendations will be specific to that, but
[24:26] Speaker 3: perhaps the other committee, the overall committee that's sort of
[24:28] Speaker 3: looking at the larger picture, or maybe some other committee
[24:31] Speaker 3: in the future. Uh, this is the last instance where
[24:33] Speaker 3: we see only government labs, only government manufacturers, only government
[24:38] Speaker 3: PSUs basically involved in the development and manufacturing cycle of
[24:41] Speaker 3: any top defense equipment. And from here on now you
[24:44] Speaker 3: will see the private sector getting involved in a big,
[24:47] Speaker 3: big way. And if that is going to happen, which
[24:49] Speaker 3: I suspect it will, what do you also see will
[24:52] Speaker 3: be the challenges that this government and future governments will
[24:56] Speaker 3: be mindful and worried about. For example, let's just say,
[24:59] Speaker 3: and this is going to be like this is a
[25:00] Speaker 3: very uh the most expected one is that then the
[25:04] Speaker 3: questions and then it becoming it becoming a political controversy
[25:08] Speaker 3: because of allegations of corruption, like you know, whether they're
[25:11] Speaker 3: they're there or not. It becomes very easy. When it
[25:14] Speaker 3: comes to the private sector, the question of the private
[25:16] Speaker 3: sector obviously will be focusing more on making profits then
[25:20] Speaker 3: ensuring you know, sort of deliveries, not deliveries per se.
[25:23] Speaker 3: But then the focus on profits will obviously be be more.
[25:27] Speaker 3: But that also has advantages as well, right, so one, yeah,
[25:30] Speaker 3: do you think this, Like I said, the process of
[25:32] Speaker 3: the way we sawtages being developed, that's it. You will
[25:35] Speaker 3: not see that happening in the future in that particular manner.
[25:38] Speaker 3: And like I said, the advantage and disadvantages of having
[25:40] Speaker 3: the privacy involved.
[25:41] Speaker 1: So my short answer to that, Dave, is that I
[25:43] Speaker 1: don't see the private sector becoming a uh you know,
[25:47] Speaker 1: a developer and a lead integrator of of uh you know,
[25:52] Speaker 1: a uh manned fighter aircraft anywhere on the horizon. Certainly
[25:57] Speaker 1: not in our lifetime and probably never. And I'll qualify
[26:01] Speaker 1: that the reason is, uh, the way India does things, UH,
[26:07] Speaker 1: the mindset of having Sarkari control over military hardware is
[26:12] Speaker 1: is going to be a very very difficult thing to shake. Okay, Uh,
[26:16] Speaker 1: you have a huge number of private sector companies in
[26:19] Speaker 1: India right now doing a vast amount of outsourcing work
[26:23] Speaker 1: for foreign manufacturers UH, building aerow structures, building entire fuselages.
[26:29] Speaker 1: The Tatas are about to build a full air bus
[26:31] Speaker 1: helicopter in Telangana as well. All of these things are
[26:34] Speaker 1: happening here in India. But but I very much doubt
[26:39] Speaker 1: that taking a combat aircraft program and giving it to
[26:41] Speaker 1: the private sector as a developer is ever going to happen.
[26:44] Speaker 1: What we are likely to see happen is what we
[26:46] Speaker 1: just discussed, which is, uh, you know manufacturing work, you know,
[26:50] Speaker 1: building work, fabrication work. That kind of thing could easily happen,
[26:53] Speaker 1: and that could also happen very quickly. The other reason
[26:56] Speaker 1: why why I don't believe that that you will see
[27:02] Speaker 1: the private sector involved in a developmental sort of role
[27:05] Speaker 1: for combat aircraft is because, uh, the nature of warfare
[27:09] Speaker 1: is also changing. Uh, and we've done an episode on
[27:12] Speaker 1: this as well. How long into the future are we
[27:15] Speaker 1: going to continue to want to develop crude fighter aircraft
[27:20] Speaker 1: crewed as in c R E W D not c
[27:22] Speaker 1: R U D. Okay. Uh, We've got private sector companies
[27:27] Speaker 1: building the next generation of drones, uh, loyal wingman drones. Uh.
[27:32] Speaker 1: We've got uh, we've got the Mahindra uh tying up
[27:36] Speaker 1: with the ANDIL of the United States to build you know,
[27:39] Speaker 1: autonomous systems of the future. And uh, you've got many
[27:42] Speaker 1: many Indian startups building swarm technology and things like that.
[27:47] Speaker 1: I very much doubt that you will have a situation
[27:49] Speaker 1: where you know, a Tatar and L and T will
[27:52] Speaker 1: be asked to build or develop, you know, a fighter aircraft.
[27:56] Speaker 1: But having said that, there is already an exact sample
[28:00] Speaker 1: in front of us where even the next fighter aircraft
[28:03] Speaker 1: being developed by India is likely to have a sizable
[28:08] Speaker 1: private sector role even in the development space. I'm talking
[28:11] Speaker 1: about the amcamer In twenty twenty, I had reported I
[28:14] Speaker 1: actually scooped that story of how the ANCA was going
[28:17] Speaker 1: to be pursued as a PPP model, a public private
[28:22] Speaker 1: partnership model which would involve three agencies, HL Aeronautical Development
[28:27] Speaker 1: Agency and a private sector company. At that time it
[28:30] Speaker 1: was thought that L and T would be the right fit, etc.
[28:34] Speaker 1: Four years later, nothing had actually happened, because it turned
[28:36] Speaker 1: out that the private sector was a little reluctant to
[28:41] Speaker 1: commit to that kind of a model in the absence
[28:43] Speaker 1: of a clear roadmap for the AMCA in terms of workshare,
[28:47] Speaker 1: in terms of numbers, and which actually threw up a
[28:52] Speaker 1: lot of lessons. The private sector, unlike your Sarkari PSU organizations,
[28:57] Speaker 1: have very different pools and pressures. They answer to their shareholders,
[29:02] Speaker 1: they answer to their board, Uh, they answer to profits, Uh,
[29:06] Speaker 1: they answer to you know, a very very clear timeline
[29:12] Speaker 1: as far as manufacturing and development cycles are concerned. They
[29:16] Speaker 1: they do not exist in a world where time and
[29:19] Speaker 1: cost overruns are you know, easily understood and forgiven. Uh.
[29:24] Speaker 1: They live in a culture where time is money, unlike
[29:28] Speaker 1: unlike our organizations. Uh, you know, they live in a
[29:31] Speaker 1: world where uh, you know, losing a project or or
[29:37] Speaker 1: failing to deliver on a project is make or break,
[29:41] Speaker 1: do or die. Uh. And and I'm talking about a
[29:44] Speaker 1: company like L and T, which is like a circare
[29:47] Speaker 1: organization in terms of its size. It's enormous. It's a
[29:50] Speaker 1: huge organization, does all manner of engineering, does so many
[29:54] Speaker 1: things for Indian defense and has for years together. It's
[29:57] Speaker 1: not a new bee, it's not a new kid on
[29:58] Speaker 1: the block. They've been building the hulls for our nuclear submarines.
[30:02] Speaker 1: They build how it's guns for the for the army.
[30:06] Speaker 1: They do a vast amount of fabrication work for the tags,
[30:09] Speaker 1: so they know what they're doing. And even they have
[30:12] Speaker 1: a culture which is vastly different from government agencies. So
[30:15] Speaker 1: I see, I see possibly partnership models like what the
[30:21] Speaker 1: AMCA will hopefully turn out to be, because God knows
[30:25] Speaker 1: that the AMCA needs, you know, a certain amount of
[30:30] Speaker 1: discipline that can only come from the private sector. You know,
[30:33] Speaker 1: a certain amount of financial time, resource allocation, and budgetary
[30:40] Speaker 1: sort of discipline that can only come from you know,
[30:44] Speaker 1: the pulls and pressures of the private sector space. But
[30:48] Speaker 1: beyond that, I don't think we're going to have a
[30:51] Speaker 1: US kind of model where you see private sector companies
[30:53] Speaker 1: be given full projects to develop stuff of this scale.
[30:57] Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, right right. We'll talk now about also
[31:02] Speaker 3: the Indian Air Force and perhaps the Ministry of Defense
[31:05] Speaker 3: and the Government of India and their do or die
[31:07] Speaker 3: movements when it comes to this partular topic.
[31:09] Speaker 2: But quick break, A lot of critics of Trump are
[31:11] Speaker 2: raising at this point. They're saying that, look, you are
[31:13] Speaker 2: willing to sideline your European allies as well as put
[31:16] Speaker 2: Ukraine on the table and give the Russians what they
[31:18] Speaker 2: want because you want to engineer some sort of divide
[31:21] Speaker 2: between Russia and China. But the relationship between those two
[31:24] Speaker 2: countries is extremely strong.
[31:25] Speaker 4: I don't think that's a strategy that's all that's right
[31:27] Speaker 4: because realistically speaking, if they're pragmatic enough, and if they
[31:32] Speaker 4: have strong China hands and strong Russia hands in their courtie,
[31:38] Speaker 4: which right now, I think they kind of do. I
[31:41] Speaker 4: don't think realistically they can drive a wedge. There is
[31:45] Speaker 4: no splitting. There's only how can you use would America
[31:49] Speaker 4: want Russia or China to use a China card or
[31:53] Speaker 4: a Russia card against American interests? Now a larger picture
[31:58] Speaker 4: for Russia. What is more important in terms of interests
[32:02] Speaker 4: looking at China and whether this China is served well
[32:04] Speaker 4: by America or looking at ending this war Shashan, there
[32:08] Speaker 4: are bodies coming home. People don't realize the thing that
[32:13] Speaker 4: you know, Russia has gained, but Russia is gaining at
[32:16] Speaker 4: a cost. The cost is so high that right now
[32:19] Speaker 4: Putin cannot withdraw. The Chinese understand this too and very well.
[32:24] Speaker 4: They know that, you know, the Russians or Americans are
[32:27] Speaker 4: not going to do anything that is going to be
[32:29] Speaker 4: he that would hurt their own interests. And China also
[32:32] Speaker 4: does business with everyone. They're providing to everyone, so including India.
[32:38] Speaker 2: So you're saying that the view in the trop administration
[32:42] Speaker 2: is not necessarily that we can split Russia from China.
[32:45] Speaker 2: The view is that we can manage the level of
[32:47] Speaker 2: hostility from the Russians in a way that's such that
[32:50] Speaker 2: we do not have to be so engaged in the
[32:51] Speaker 2: Ukraine War and focus on other priorities.
[32:58] Speaker 3: Welcome back, Shive and I have been discussing, uh, like
[33:01] Speaker 3: shift said, HS, do what I moment when it comes
[33:04] Speaker 3: to deliveries, because how I think that's gonna sort of uh,
[33:08] Speaker 3: and that's going to define how that company's relationship with
[33:11] Speaker 3: the Indian Air Force remains going forward, which has been
[33:15] Speaker 3: it was bad when the the was being first developed,
[33:17] Speaker 3: and it kind of got to a good place and
[33:19] Speaker 3: now it's kind of again sort of on the eyes
[33:21] Speaker 3: because of the delays and the deliveries. But it all
[33:24] Speaker 3: depends on how that company sort of reacts to this, uh.
[33:28] Speaker 3: And I think that's perhaps also why like what do
[33:30] Speaker 3: you briefly said at the beginning that you know, maybe
[33:32] Speaker 3: HL grudgingly even if SO has sort of accepted Keihai
[33:37] Speaker 3: Smith Hodaga private sector helped Milby's and it will be
[33:39] Speaker 3: good for us soonly at the end of the day,
[33:41] Speaker 3: because then it least to be able to say, hey, bro,
[33:43] Speaker 3: we delivered the air craft not on time, sorry, but
[33:45] Speaker 3: we delivered the aircraft full stop, all right.
[33:49] Speaker 1: Cool.
[33:49] Speaker 3: So on this topic, a couple of more points, uh,
[33:53] Speaker 3: since we are talking about do what I moments and like,
[33:55] Speaker 3: you know, making those hard decisions the Indian Air Force, uh,
[33:59] Speaker 3: you know when we discuss the ages and also on
[34:01] Speaker 3: the previous episode when we discussed the union Air Force
[34:03] Speaker 3: chiefs a showdown with not showdown per se, but the
[34:06] Speaker 3: dressing down he gave to HL officials at the Aronda
[34:08] Speaker 3: show we mentioned in the previous episode. And you've described
[34:12] Speaker 3: this in quite detail in the theas episode of how
[34:14] Speaker 3: the Indian Air Force also had has its own, you know,
[34:18] Speaker 3: fair share of blame to take because of its changing
[34:20] Speaker 3: requirements doing the thea cycle, et cetera. That is what
[34:23] Speaker 3: even the Air Force chief referred to during his talk
[34:25] Speaker 3: with the officials. I want to know that when it
[34:28] Speaker 3: comes to knowing now what you want, whether it's with
[34:31] Speaker 3: your teachers Mark two, whether it's in terms of how
[34:34] Speaker 3: many aircraft you want, how many squadrons you want to fulfill?
[34:37] Speaker 3: Which ones do you want to fase out? You obviously
[34:38] Speaker 3: want to face out the twenty one, but do skap bad?
[34:40] Speaker 3: Do you want to face out the other remaining jets
[34:42] Speaker 3: that you have if they are that ole with AMCA
[34:45] Speaker 3: for example, What exactly is the technology that you want?
[34:50] Speaker 3: Is the Air Force clear about that do they have
[34:53] Speaker 3: that roadmap and vision clear for them, because you can't
[34:56] Speaker 3: blame governments and committees and manufacturers if they all you
[35:00] Speaker 3: have no idea what the customer wants. So does the
[35:02] Speaker 3: Air Force have a clear picture and it's head keep bye,
[35:04] Speaker 3: this is what we want for the next four or
[35:06] Speaker 3: five decades, whether it's even including prons for example, so
[35:09] Speaker 3: that the government or the committees that we're talking about
[35:12] Speaker 3: they have some help in terms of how do we
[35:14] Speaker 3: help them get what they want.
[35:15] Speaker 1: So I think you're absolutely right, Dave when you say
[35:18] Speaker 1: that the Air Force needs to take some share a
[35:21] Speaker 1: fraction of the blame over how you know, either a
[35:26] Speaker 1: lack of planning or bad planning over the decades, and
[35:29] Speaker 1: I'm not not talking about now, but over the decades
[35:31] Speaker 1: has resulted in a kind of compounding problem. Right now,
[35:35] Speaker 1: we've had many, many different missteps, whether it is the
[35:38] Speaker 1: MMRCA to you know, the decision not to build Mirage
[35:43] Speaker 1: two thousands in India, to even decisions before that which
[35:48] Speaker 1: to which you can trace the problems that Indian Air
[35:51] Speaker 1: Force is facing now in terms of its squadron strength depletion.
[35:56] Speaker 1: But I can tell you that in the last nine
[36:00] Speaker 1: ten years, maybe a certain degree of clarity has kind
[36:05] Speaker 1: of fructified. I think it was around the time when
[36:08] Speaker 1: the Air Force it dawned on the Air Force that
[36:11] Speaker 1: the one twenty six MMRCA is a non starter and
[36:13] Speaker 1: it's not going to happen. That is around the time
[36:16] Speaker 1: that they really had to make backup plans and things
[36:20] Speaker 1: started kicking into gear in terms of how they were
[36:23] Speaker 1: going to keep you know, airpower at a certain sort of,
[36:28] Speaker 1: you know, reasonably decent level. They you know, they had
[36:31] Speaker 1: to extend, extend the life of some of their aircraft.
[36:34] Speaker 1: They had the mid twenty nine upgrade happening. They had
[36:36] Speaker 1: the Mirage two thousand upgrade that took place, They had
[36:39] Speaker 1: the they're still talking about the thirty upgrade. They had
[36:45] Speaker 1: to extend service of the Mira, the MiG twenty ones.
[36:49] Speaker 1: All of these difficult decisions had to be taken, and
[36:51] Speaker 1: all of them were expensive decisions as well. But the
[36:54] Speaker 1: Air Force now has a clear plan. I think. I
[36:57] Speaker 1: think if you, if you sort of juxt superimpose the
[37:01] Speaker 1: aircraft that are currently in service and their service and
[37:04] Speaker 1: their service life what's left of it, along with the
[37:07] Speaker 1: aircraft that are incoming, and when I say incoming. I
[37:10] Speaker 1: mean the they just mark one A which is eighty
[37:11] Speaker 1: three plus ninety seven, that they just mark two, which
[37:15] Speaker 1: is about one hundred and twenty aircraft, and then the AMCA,
[37:18] Speaker 1: which will come only about eleven twelve years from now.
[37:22] Speaker 1: The most obvious learning or finding from that picture is
[37:28] Speaker 1: that the MRFA is an inevitability. It will have to happen,
[37:32] Speaker 1: you know, some some form of MRFA will happen. You know,
[37:36] Speaker 1: there are some purists who believe, you know, scrap the
[37:39] Speaker 1: MRFA because the they just mark two is going to
[37:43] Speaker 1: be flying early next year, one year from now, that
[37:46] Speaker 1: they just mark two is going to fly. And the
[37:48] Speaker 1: they just mark two is basically or medium fighter. So
[37:50] Speaker 1: why do you need an MRFA at all, which is
[37:52] Speaker 1: an easier set than done, because the they just marked
[37:54] Speaker 1: two will begin to fly next year, and it will
[37:58] Speaker 1: there will be a lead time before you know, testing
[38:00] Speaker 1: is complete and deliveries actually begin, as we've seen with
[38:03] Speaker 1: the first stages. So therefore I think there is a
[38:07] Speaker 1: there's a degree of unanimity even with those who are
[38:11] Speaker 1: sort of against the idea of another imported aircraft, and frankly,
[38:17] Speaker 1: the idea of importing yet another fighter doesn't sit well
[38:20] Speaker 1: with me either, But I think most people, most reasonable
[38:23] Speaker 1: people now agree that some form of an MRFA is
[38:27] Speaker 1: going to be inevitable. What form that MRFA is going
[38:31] Speaker 1: to take, as we've seen in our experience, is going
[38:35] Speaker 1: to be fluid. Is it going to be one hundred
[38:36] Speaker 1: and fourteen aircraft? Is it going to be a smaller number.
[38:40] Speaker 1: Is it going to be a larger component of aircraft
[38:42] Speaker 1: bought from abroad and a smaller component built here in India?
[38:45] Speaker 1: Is it going to be you know, God forbid entirely
[38:48] Speaker 1: off the shelf purchase of a smaller number like we
[38:50] Speaker 1: had with the raphal. All of those things are up
[38:54] Speaker 1: in the air, but I believe that a decision to
[38:57] Speaker 1: that effect will have to be made. We've done a
[38:58] Speaker 1: full episode on how the MRFA is now all up
[39:01] Speaker 1: in the air thanks to the F thirty five being
[39:03] Speaker 1: put on the table, et cetera. But I think I think,
[39:06] Speaker 1: you know, once the you know, once all the razzle
[39:10] Speaker 1: dazzle of the F thirty five and Trump has kind
[39:12] Speaker 1: of settled. The harsh reality is that the Air Force
[39:16] Speaker 1: needs numbers quickly, uh and those numbers are going to
[39:20] Speaker 1: hopefully be made up by the tages. That committee is
[39:23] Speaker 1: going to recommend the tageous asapp program. Uh and then
[39:27] Speaker 1: you've got the MRFA which will have to which will
[39:29] Speaker 1: have to provide that you know, short term boost of strength.
[39:34] Speaker 1: I don't want to use the word stop gap anymore
[39:36] Speaker 1: because it's a it's become a joke. Nothing should be
[39:39] Speaker 1: seen as a stop gap because fighter aircraft, you know,
[39:42] Speaker 1: are not are not party toys that you know, you
[39:45] Speaker 1: use for a while and throwaway. They're going to be
[39:47] Speaker 1: with you for thirty forty Yeah, maybe even fifty years
[39:50] Speaker 1: depending on their longevity, look at the mid twenty ones, right,
[39:53] Speaker 1: so so uh so, yeah, so I think I don't
[39:58] Speaker 1: I don't want to crystal more than that because I
[40:02] Speaker 1: think the dangers of crystal balling with Indian Air Force
[40:04] Speaker 1: procurement has already revealed its dangers right here on this podcast,
[40:08] Speaker 1: even within one season.
[40:09] Speaker 3: Yeah.
[40:09] Speaker 1: Actually, therefore, therefore, I would say that the only clear
[40:13] Speaker 1: picture that we have right now is thes ASAP and MRFA.
[40:16] Speaker 3: Right. That's great when it comes to having a clear picture,
[40:20] Speaker 3: so and knowing what the Air Force wants, the Air
[40:23] Speaker 3: Force being clear, knowing what you kind of need to
[40:25] Speaker 3: do with you with HL to ensure it's able to
[40:27] Speaker 3: ensure deliveries. But the last question, and the last person
[40:32] Speaker 3: in the room that's very important is the Government of
[40:34] Speaker 3: India because all of this comes to the Lord a
[40:37] Speaker 3: lot of money. It's not cheap, right. It's one thing
[40:40] Speaker 3: for their force to have a clear picture. It's one
[40:42] Speaker 3: thing for the air Force to advise the government that
[40:44] Speaker 3: this is what we require, this is what we need.
[40:46] Speaker 3: These are the number of squadrons that we need. Is
[40:47] Speaker 3: a number of fighter jets we need? Perhaps, you know,
[40:49] Speaker 3: give us these many pages. Let's go for an MRFA
[40:52] Speaker 3: and let's you know, perhaps fad for down the road.
[40:55] Speaker 3: Uh so the dover time movement for the Government of
[40:58] Speaker 3: India or the Ministry of Defense, however you want to
[41:01] Speaker 3: see it. Do you see a risk of again just
[41:05] Speaker 3: giving sort of a piecemeal solution to this larger issue,
[41:09] Speaker 3: or do you think I think we've discussed this briefly
[41:12] Speaker 3: once previously as well, or do you think that this
[41:14] Speaker 3: is that moment when that one hard call. It might
[41:18] Speaker 3: be controversial, it might not sit down well with everybody,
[41:21] Speaker 3: You might not end up pleasing everybody, but that one
[41:23] Speaker 3: hard call where you have this roadmap in mind, and
[41:26] Speaker 3: you know that this is what you need to achieve it,
[41:28] Speaker 3: and you can just take that long term decision to
[41:31] Speaker 3: ensure that you are never faced with the situation again,
[41:33] Speaker 3: while keeping in mind that this is this is a
[41:35] Speaker 3: piece of equipment that you might not need forever, you
[41:39] Speaker 3: might need for the next maybe two three decades. Like
[41:41] Speaker 3: you said, you know, with man and man prone wingmen
[41:44] Speaker 3: coming in, it's going to change the bargains in it
[41:46] Speaker 3: all together. Yes, you're also is developing its own sort
[41:49] Speaker 3: of the cats program we've talked about, so integrating all
[41:52] Speaker 3: that we know right now and taking that one long
[41:55] Speaker 3: term decision. Do you think that is on the animal
[41:58] Speaker 3: or do you think we're going to perhaps end up
[42:00] Speaker 3: doing sort of a peacemeal solution. Yeah, big low kit barking,
[42:03] Speaker 3: next goverment.
[42:04] Speaker 1: This is again I'm glad you asked this question. But
[42:08] Speaker 1: what we're talking about right now and rolling our eyes
[42:10] Speaker 1: is literally an opportunity to fix those flaws and to
[42:15] Speaker 1: take a long term view and to take hard decisions
[42:17] Speaker 1: that will, you know, perhaps avoid being in this same
[42:22] Speaker 1: situation twenty years from now. The way governments, the way
[42:27] Speaker 1: administrations have generally worked, is people not willing to take
[42:32] Speaker 1: difficult decisions because you know, why why bother with a
[42:36] Speaker 1: decision that might come back to haunt me in the
[42:38] Speaker 1: form of some kind of controversy, you know, a few
[42:41] Speaker 1: years down the line. Now, why did you buy so
[42:43] Speaker 1: many of this aircraft? You know, why did you cancel
[42:46] Speaker 1: this project? The way our political system is structured, And
[42:49] Speaker 1: you saw what happened in twenty nineteen with you know
[42:51] Speaker 1: who blew up in his face of course. But but
[42:55] Speaker 1: that's just an example of how, you know, myopia, buffu
[43:00] Speaker 1: and a complete lack of understanding of how defense procurement
[43:03] Speaker 1: works can lead to very responsible people in high positions
[43:06] Speaker 1: making all kinds of you know, moronic allegations. But the
[43:09] Speaker 1: truth of the matter is all defense procurements are susceptible
[43:12] Speaker 1: and multible to politics in this country, which is why
[43:16] Speaker 1: as a as a system, as a bureaucracy, things have
[43:20] Speaker 1: been very skittish in that respect, and which is why
[43:24] Speaker 1: I told you I was pleasantly surprised that the government
[43:27] Speaker 1: was actually thinking of signing up for more raffles. I thought,
[43:30] Speaker 1: you know, after the politics of twenty nineteen, the Raphael
[43:34] Speaker 1: may not be a blacklisted aircraft, but it was sort
[43:38] Speaker 1: of kryptonite. It was radioactive and you couldn't touch it anymore.
[43:41] Speaker 1: But up there in April, they're going to be signing
[43:42] Speaker 1: another deal for twenty seven of those aircraft with the
[43:46] Speaker 1: French for the Indian Navy. But having said that, I
[43:50] Speaker 1: don't think the habit of kicking the can down the
[43:53] Speaker 1: road and deafering decisions is going to change very soon.
[43:56] Speaker 1: But the truth is these committees that we kind of uh,
[44:01] Speaker 1: you know, laughing at right now, and uh, and we
[44:04] Speaker 1: mean no disrespect obviously, because these are competent people empowered
[44:07] Speaker 1: to make difficult, far reaching decisions. Uh. They certainly have
[44:12] Speaker 1: an opportunity to uh, you know, beild the cat and
[44:15] Speaker 1: fix certain wrongs and create a template for decision making
[44:19] Speaker 1: going forward. And these are these are brutally hard decisions.
[44:23] Speaker 1: You know, how do you let me list some of
[44:26] Speaker 1: the things. Obviously I'm simplifying them, but these are some
[44:29] Speaker 1: of the decisions in front of not just the committee
[44:31] Speaker 1: but the political system in general. Just say no to
[44:35] Speaker 1: Trump as far as combat aircraft are concerned, and buy
[44:37] Speaker 1: more of fuls or consider Trump as a geopolitical you know,
[44:42] Speaker 1: tax that you have to pay and say that, okay, fine,
[44:45] Speaker 1: we have to do this let's not do anymore, Ronna,
[44:48] Speaker 1: this is it, and we have we have to buy
[44:49] Speaker 1: American combat fighters or we say that no, we're going
[44:53] Speaker 1: to just tie tiede this over. Forget the m r
[44:56] Speaker 1: f A, and we're going to got all our resources
[44:57] Speaker 1: into Indian fighters.
[44:59] Speaker 3: Uh.
[44:59] Speaker 1: It will have to obviously not be one or the other.
[45:01] Speaker 1: That they'll have to be a mix of these things.
[45:03] Speaker 1: But two or three difficult Uh, you know, in the
[45:07] Speaker 1: short term, indigestible decisions will have to be taken. Okay,
[45:12] Speaker 1: there are all these pulls and pressures over the gap
[45:14] Speaker 1: with China or Russia. Will not like this. Oh, the
[45:17] Speaker 1: United States is expecting this. Oh, but what about our
[45:19] Speaker 1: responsibilities in the region. All of these pulls up and
[45:22] Speaker 1: pressures are going to be that they're never going to
[45:24] Speaker 1: go away. They're never going to evaporate, which is which
[45:27] Speaker 1: is a disadvantage because it makes your difficult more decision
[45:30] Speaker 1: more difficult, But it also makes it a little easier
[45:32] Speaker 1: because those things are never going to change, which means
[45:34] Speaker 1: you're living in a sort of constant frame of referencing. Okay,
[45:36] Speaker 1: these things are not going to change. I need to
[45:38] Speaker 1: take my own call right now, So so will the system,
[45:41] Speaker 1: bite the bullet and say, uh, this is what we're
[45:44] Speaker 1: going to do. No more stop gap, no more piecemeal,
[45:47] Speaker 1: no more thirty forty aircraft, no more you know a
[45:51] Speaker 1: ki ya karna. That I think is how it's going
[45:55] Speaker 1: to be. It's an opportunity. I would be the happiest
[46:00] Speaker 1: person to be proven wrong that a long term view
[46:02] Speaker 1: is actually taken. In my twenty years as a defense
[46:05] Speaker 1: journalists have been constantly disappointed by the recommendations that committees
[46:10] Speaker 1: have made because they've always been how to change things
[46:14] Speaker 1: in the next six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve months.
[46:17] Speaker 1: And I hope that's going to be different this time.
[46:19] Speaker 3: Yeah, and for that we'll have to wait probably season
[46:22] Speaker 3: three oft A Defense. And I think, just to kind
[46:25] Speaker 3: of extent you thought, I think what also makes it
[46:27] Speaker 3: more complex is that you also have people within the
[46:30] Speaker 3: system arguing against each other. Like for example, you just said,
[46:34] Speaker 3: you know, okay, let's take it to say n Trump.
[46:36] Speaker 3: Then you'll have the AA, like you know, throwing a
[46:37] Speaker 3: fit like hey, hey, you cannot do that. You know what,
[46:39] Speaker 3: what about us? We have to deal with him? You
[46:42] Speaker 3: guys don't have to deal with him. And or if
[46:44] Speaker 3: you going for a purchase of a big number of
[46:46] Speaker 3: a large number of fighters, as then the ministrative finance
[46:49] Speaker 3: will be like, hey, but we don't have the money.
[46:50] Speaker 3: So I mean that's something Also you have to take
[46:51] Speaker 3: a keep in mind when you're taking the decisions. So yeah,
[46:56] Speaker 3: I think we lend it there. But as we end
[46:59] Speaker 3: the season, have a couple of points, a couple of
[47:01] Speaker 3: things I want to discuss with you on light and
[47:03] Speaker 3: note one, how many friends have you lost during season two?
[47:06] Speaker 3: In a defense?
[47:07] Speaker 1: Oh, I I'm very happy to say that I haven't
[47:10] Speaker 1: lost any friends. I've had very very vicious, fiery debates
[47:14] Speaker 1: I've had, you know, I've had untold numbers of messages
[47:19] Speaker 1: saying didn't expect this from you. But I have to
[47:23] Speaker 1: also say that I've received an equal number of messages
[47:26] Speaker 1: from people saying glad you brought this out. You're the
[47:30] Speaker 1: only person who could have you know called U Spade
[47:32] Speaker 1: has paid on this issue. Hamare WhatsApp group you know
[47:38] Speaker 1: on your YouTube video and those kinds of things. I
[47:41] Speaker 1: think I think I haven't lost any friends because the
[47:43] Speaker 1: people I follow, the people i'm in touch with in
[47:45] Speaker 1: the military and the veteran community, are all incredibly competent people,
[47:49] Speaker 1: and they know that, you know, the things I say
[47:51] Speaker 1: come from not a place of uh, you know, malice
[47:55] Speaker 1: or you know, an intention to make some kind of
[47:58] Speaker 1: personal point, but but out of sure love for the military,
[48:02] Speaker 1: uh and and with with with with great regard for
[48:06] Speaker 1: the men and women in uniform, and the hope that
[48:09] Speaker 1: they succeed and get the best equipment in a timely manner.
[48:12] Speaker 1: I literally have no other motivations, you know, for being
[48:15] Speaker 1: a defense journalist for this long so so yeah, so
[48:18] Speaker 1: short answer is no, I haven't lost any friends, but yeah,
[48:20] Speaker 1: people are looking at me differently now sometimes.
[48:24] Speaker 3: Yeah, but you know, I'll say something and I'm a
[48:26] Speaker 3: witness to that, is that you also, in every episode,
[48:31] Speaker 3: have qualified what you've said, and you've explained why you
[48:36] Speaker 3: believe certain things in a certain way or why you
[48:38] Speaker 3: say what you're saying. It's not just you know, making headline,
[48:41] Speaker 3: seeing that one viral sentence, that one headline that will
[48:44] Speaker 3: go viral. But if people actually sit in and listen
[48:47] Speaker 3: to the episode or watch the episode, they'll actually get
[48:50] Speaker 3: the reasoning from where you're saying what you're saying. And
[48:52] Speaker 3: I think that's probably why you haven't brought its friends
[48:54] Speaker 3: because you're making sense at the end of the day.
[48:57] Speaker 1: The true thirds. You know, That's always been something that
[49:01] Speaker 1: I've believed in when it comes to reporting on sensitive
[49:05] Speaker 1: matters like defense, which is that ultimately what you report
[49:09] Speaker 1: is going to piss someone off. And the topics you
[49:14] Speaker 1: and I have chosen, they've are sort of tailor made
[49:18] Speaker 1: to piss as very people off as possible. But I'm
[49:21] Speaker 1: glad we did because we didn't do it to piss
[49:23] Speaker 1: people off. We did it because we're shining a light
[49:25] Speaker 1: on issues that most people either are not equipped to
[49:29] Speaker 1: shine a light on or are hesitant to shine a
[49:31] Speaker 1: light on, you know, because of yeah, sensitive and stuff.
[49:35] Speaker 1: But I think we've evolved in extremely nice formula in
[49:40] Speaker 1: this season where we've talked about sensitive matters but done
[49:43] Speaker 1: it respectfully, yes, and made people think about these things,
[49:47] Speaker 1: including the people sitting in the chair, And I think
[49:50] Speaker 1: that's what season two is real achievement is.
[49:52] Speaker 3: Yeah, I quite agree with that, right, And as we
[49:55] Speaker 3: end this one last question, I want to ask a
[49:58] Speaker 3: few and Air Defense tell me the three pieces of
[50:04] Speaker 3: current equipment that we have in service that you love
[50:07] Speaker 3: or are excited the most about in service, And again
[50:10] Speaker 3: for all three domains of warfare the three upcoming piece
[50:15] Speaker 3: of equipment that you're more excited about.
[50:18] Speaker 1: So oh difficult, difficult one So land, Sea and air.
[50:22] Speaker 1: Let's see air they just marked two. Very excited about it.
[50:26] Speaker 1: I actually wrote a column recently where I said, perhaps
[50:29] Speaker 1: it's time to forget about the tags mark two and
[50:31] Speaker 1: only focus on the anchor and I received a huge
[50:34] Speaker 1: amount of fire for that, and very reasonable people have
[50:37] Speaker 1: convinced me that I was wrong, and I'm happy to
[50:39] Speaker 1: be wrong when I'm wrong. And I think the theaj
[50:41] Speaker 1: S Mark two is a is going to be is
[50:43] Speaker 1: a big, big boost to the Air Force. We're going
[50:46] Speaker 1: to be able to build it in large numbers. It's
[50:48] Speaker 1: going to be the tages that the Air Force actually wanted,
[50:51] Speaker 1: uh and it's going to be a medium fighter that
[50:52] Speaker 1: I think India will be able to even export to
[50:54] Speaker 1: the world. So very excited about that. On at sea,
[50:59] Speaker 1: the projects seventy seven nuclear attack nuclear power attack submarines
[51:03] Speaker 1: is something I'm very excited about. They're a long way off, sadly,
[51:08] Speaker 1: so we're not going to see them anytime soon, but again,
[51:11] Speaker 1: very very excited about them as well. On on land,
[51:16] Speaker 1: I am I'm really looking forward to really really looking
[51:20] Speaker 1: forward to the Mountain Tank, the Zaba Tank. I'm also
[51:24] Speaker 1: looking forward to India's private sector artillery entering the Indian Army.
[51:29] Speaker 1: There's a running joke on social media about how the
[51:33] Speaker 1: you know, Kaliani and the other companies that make artillery.
[51:35] Speaker 1: You know, people say Badayo Armenia, Akanayamala and stuff, and
[51:40] Speaker 1: how you know these other countries have bought more artillery
[51:43] Speaker 1: before the Indian Army has even thought of buying them.
[51:45] Speaker 1: So it's become a it's become a frankly, a very
[51:48] Speaker 1: funny meme on the Internet, and it's rooted in reality.
[51:52] Speaker 1: I think it's embarrassing that the Indian Army hasn't looked
[51:54] Speaker 1: at these private sector artillery pieces just yet. But above
[51:57] Speaker 1: all of these, I think what I'm most excited about
[52:00] Speaker 1: is India's startup ecosystem Yes, and the stuff that they're
[52:04] Speaker 1: going to deliver, you know, the new space a Bima,
[52:06] Speaker 1: New Loyal Wingman, hlscats Warrior, that entire realm is something
[52:12] Speaker 1: I'm going to be looking at very very closely as.
[52:14] Speaker 2: We go forward.
[52:15] Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I quite agree with that. The startup ecosystems,
[52:19] Speaker 3: I think something which we could not really focus on
[52:21] Speaker 3: big time on season two, but I think it really
[52:23] Speaker 3: need that really needs a you know sort of focus,
[52:26] Speaker 3: attention and more coverage, if I can say that way,
[52:30] Speaker 3: and perhaps we'll do that on season three. Often a defense.
[52:34] Speaker 3: So thanks shift, fantastic episode, fantastic season in fact, thanks
[52:37] Speaker 3: the great fun, lots of chat, and I think this
[52:39] Speaker 3: is going to be a very memorable time for me
[52:42] Speaker 3: to have this year, year and a month or so
[52:45] Speaker 3: often a defense with you, thanks as always to our
[52:48] Speaker 3: viewers and listeners. Will back. I don't know right now when,
[52:52] Speaker 3: but we'll let you know soon from our social media
[52:55] Speaker 3: and in a post very soon. We'll be back very
[52:57] Speaker 3: soon in a new format and new of the till then, uh,
[53:00] Speaker 3: you know, stay safe and not cross any boundaries that possible.
[53:03] Speaker 3: Bye bye and see you soon. M h
[53:10] Speaker 1: M hm

Shows are listed from Apple Podcasts' charts and directory, and Podcast Index where it is used. Every show and episode belongs to its publisher and plays from the publisher's own feed; this site hosts none of them.