# Weekend Listen: Is the world prepared for a 'super' El Niño?

An episode of [Big Take](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1578096201), 12 Jul 2026, 34 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/tracking.swap.fm/track/UVBrz8bN8aM2Xe47PEPu/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/825d4e29-b616-46f4-afd7-ae2b0013005c/efd87dcf-03ae-4ab8-ba33-b484013bcae0/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=8b1dd624-a026-43e9-8b57-ae2b00130066

The great famine of the 1870s killed 50 million people – and El Niño was a key driver. Another El Niño phase has just begun and it’s expected to be among the strongest. There are five times as many people in 2026 as there were in the 1870s and the planet is 1.4C hotter. So are we better prepared? In this weekend's listen, Bloomberg’s Akshat Rathi speaks with Mingfang Ting, professor of climate at Columbia University, about the natural phenomenon and its interaction with human-caused climate change. Read more: • Bloomberg Green's deep dive on extreme heat Thoughts or suggestions? Email zeropod@bloomberg.net. For more coverage of climate change and solutions, visit https://www.bloomberg.com/green. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:01] Speaker 1: More than fifty million people were killed between eighteen seventy
[0:05] Speaker 1: five and eighteen seventy eight. The period is now remembered
[0:09] Speaker 1: as the Great Famine, and one of the primary causes
[0:13] Speaker 1: behind the famine was a naturally occurring phenomenon called El Nino.
[0:18] Speaker 1: In fact, the eighteen seventy seven El Nino is the
[0:21] Speaker 1: strongest ever recorded. As of June, we have entered another
[0:27] Speaker 1: El Nino event, and scientists are expecting this one to
[0:31] Speaker 1: be very strong. Some call it a super El Nino,
[0:35] Speaker 1: or even a Godzilla El Nino. So are we better prepared?
[0:40] Speaker 1: In twenty twenty six? There are, after all, five times
[0:44] Speaker 1: as many people as in eighteen seventy seven, and the
[0:48] Speaker 1: planet is one point four degrees celsius orter. This is
[0:52] Speaker 1: zero I am Akshadrati this week understanding a monster. Since
[1:00] Speaker 1: nineteen seventy our appetite four fossil fuels has been increasing
[1:04] Speaker 1: global average temperatures by about zero point two degrees celsius
[1:08] Speaker 1: every decade. That is typically how much a single Al
[1:12] Speaker 1: Nino event raises global average temperatures by, and it does
[1:16] Speaker 1: so by releasing vast amounts of heat from the Pacific Ocean.
[1:21] Speaker 1: So this El Ninio will not just cause disasters around
[1:24] Speaker 1: the world, but it will also give us a taste
[1:27] Speaker 1: of what climate change could look like in twenty thirty
[1:30] Speaker 1: five if we continue to burn fossil fuels at the
[1:34] Speaker 1: same rate. To understand the al Ninia phenomenon, I'm joined
[1:38] Speaker 1: today by Ming Functing, Professor of Climate at Columbia University.
[1:42] Speaker 1: We talk about the science of al nino, how prepared
[1:45] Speaker 1: the world is, and how scientists are responding to the
[1:49] Speaker 1: increased political attacks on an overheating planet. Professor main Puncting,
[2:01] Speaker 1: Welcome to zero, Thanks for having me. So we are
[2:04] Speaker 1: about to enter what people are calling a super el Nino.
[2:09] Speaker 1: Before we start to talk about the superpart, can you
[2:12] Speaker 1: just woc us through the very basics of what an
[2:15] Speaker 1: el Nino is.
[2:17] Speaker 2: El Nino is one of the most influential climate pattern
[2:22] Speaker 2: It the impacts not only the local region where it starts,
[2:27] Speaker 2: which is the tropical Pacific, but it also impacts regions
[2:32] Speaker 2: far from that region through something we call teleconnection, and
[2:38] Speaker 2: it can cause droughts in some parts of the world
[2:42] Speaker 2: and flooding in other parts, or you know, hurricanes and
[2:46] Speaker 2: other activities. So el nino is a natural phenomena and
[2:52] Speaker 2: to understand why only occurs, we have to start from
[2:55] Speaker 2: the normal state. So during the normal state of the
[2:58] Speaker 2: tropical Pacific, we have these steady trade winds that blows
[3:03] Speaker 2: from the east toward the west, which basically pushes warm
[3:09] Speaker 2: surface water that is exposed to the sunlight toward the
[3:13] Speaker 2: west and forming something we call the Pacific Western Pacific
[3:18] Speaker 2: warm pool. And the warm water there then fuels precipitation,
[3:23] Speaker 2: the rainfall, you know, convection and rainfall that leads to
[3:27] Speaker 2: rainy climate in regions like you know Indonesia, you know,
[3:31] Speaker 2: Northern Australia, and relatively cool climate in the eastern part
[3:36] Speaker 2: of the Pacific like the coast of Peru. And it
[3:40] Speaker 2: also the cooling you know, the water walmart being moved away.
[3:44] Speaker 2: It also allows the deep, cold and rich water come
[3:48] Speaker 2: to the surface. That also helps the ecosystem there, allows
[3:52] Speaker 2: you know, fish to flourish in that region. Uh during
[3:56] Speaker 2: a nino, which is a disruption of normal cycle, and
[4:01] Speaker 2: what happens there is the wind tends to weaken, the
[4:05] Speaker 2: trade winds tend to weaken, and that allows the warm
[4:09] Speaker 2: water that is pushed toward the west to spread back
[4:12] Speaker 2: toward the east, covering pretty much the majority of the
[4:16] Speaker 2: Tropical Pacific. The Tropical Pacific is a huge basin, so
[4:21] Speaker 2: that allows a lot of the heat from the surface
[4:24] Speaker 2: to be sent back to the atmosphere, increases the global
[4:29] Speaker 2: mean surface temperature and you know, causing convection changes that
[4:35] Speaker 2: alters the atmospheric circulation, which means high pressure low pressure
[4:40] Speaker 2: in different regions. So that then leads to anomalous climate
[4:46] Speaker 2: linked to surface temperature as well as precipitation, droughts, and
[4:51] Speaker 2: other other phenomena.
[4:54] Speaker 1: And the opposite happens in a La Ninia phase where
[4:57] Speaker 1: instead of the heat being released from the Pacific, more
[5:00] Speaker 1: heat is stored in the Pacific right.
[5:03] Speaker 2: Exactly, So there is an opposite phase of the El
[5:06] Speaker 2: Nino site sudden we call it, and so southern oscillation cycle.
[5:11] Speaker 2: And the opposite phase is the intensification of trade winds.
[5:15] Speaker 2: So the wind actually becomes a but normally strong that
[5:20] Speaker 2: pushes warm water further to the west. That allows a
[5:24] Speaker 2: warm warm to shrink, and that causes more or less
[5:29] Speaker 2: opposite kind of impact to a lot of the global
[5:32] Speaker 2: phenomena climate phenomena, but not exactly, you know, there are
[5:36] Speaker 2: some some asymmetriies between the two.
[5:39] Speaker 1: And just so we understand. Obviously, the Pacific Ocean is
[5:43] Speaker 1: the largest ocean by quite some distance, and when the
[5:48] Speaker 1: heat from the Pacific Ocean is released or absorbed in
[5:51] Speaker 1: these two phases, it has these global impacts because it
[5:55] Speaker 1: can make a big global difference to average temperatures. Right,
[6:00] Speaker 1: what is the range in which typically global average temperatures
[6:04] Speaker 1: increase or decrease during an alninio versus in Coloninia?
[6:09] Speaker 2: Very good question. Yes. One of the things all NINO
[6:12] Speaker 2: does is that, as I mentioned, that the surface water
[6:16] Speaker 2: becomes warm across the type Pacific, so that it allows
[6:20] Speaker 2: more heat to be transferred from the ocean toward the
[6:24] Speaker 2: atmosphere through this warm surface water. As you pointed out,
[6:28] Speaker 2: it's Pacific, it's the largest ocean, so once it's all
[6:31] Speaker 2: covered by warm water, that is a very big source
[6:35] Speaker 2: of heat to the atmosphere, and that actually increases the
[6:40] Speaker 2: global mean surface temperature by the order of something like
[6:45] Speaker 2: point five degree across you know, globally averaged. This is
[6:50] Speaker 2: what happened in.
[6:51] Speaker 1: Some sense, pidegree celsius celsius.
[6:53] Speaker 2: Yes, half degree celsius. This is what happened in twenty three,
[6:58] Speaker 2: twenty four. The most recent nini. If you recall there
[7:02] Speaker 2: was this a spike in the global means offace temperature.
[7:06] Speaker 1: And now scientists are talking about a super l ninio.
[7:11] Speaker 1: What is this definition of weak normal, big super al nino?
[7:18] Speaker 1: How is it measured exactly?
[7:20] Speaker 2: The strength of the al nino is measured by what
[7:25] Speaker 2: we call nino indexes induses. There are multiple indices. We
[7:32] Speaker 2: basically average the surface temperature over a certain region of
[7:35] Speaker 2: the tropical Pacific where we get the largest anomaly. So
[7:41] Speaker 2: a normal nino is one that indexes above point five
[7:45] Speaker 2: degrees over a certain period of time, and a strong
[7:50] Speaker 2: al nino would be above one degree, and a super
[7:54] Speaker 2: al nino would be something like above two degrees celsius.
[7:58] Speaker 2: All of them in celsius.
[8:00] Speaker 1: Yeah, and right now there's a discussion that this is
[8:03] Speaker 1: a super el ninios. It's it's is do we know
[8:06] Speaker 1: how much is the anomaly? Is it two degrees celsius
[8:10] Speaker 1: or more?
[8:11] Speaker 2: Right now, the probability in all of the forecasts are probabilistic.
[8:16] Speaker 2: We based on multi model, So we estimate using statistical
[8:20] Speaker 2: methods of what is the likelihood of this aneno happening
[8:24] Speaker 2: and what is likelihood of it reaching certain strands so
[8:29] Speaker 2: currently the model forecasts, based on multiple models across the world,
[8:34] Speaker 2: is that there is one hundred percent chance theo will
[8:38] Speaker 2: be happening, and it's in fact already exists the conditions
[8:42] Speaker 2: we're already seeing it. But even back in you know, April,
[8:45] Speaker 2: we knew quite high high likelihood this all news happening.
[8:50] Speaker 2: And currently the chance of a superl Nino is about
[8:55] Speaker 2: sixty three percent. So it's about sixty percent.
[8:59] Speaker 1: And in terms of trying to understand the Almineo system's
[9:05] Speaker 1: strength and weakness, what causes certain alninos to be bigger
[9:09] Speaker 1: than other alninos.
[9:11] Speaker 2: That's a very good question, which is something that we
[9:14] Speaker 2: are still researching. We know the mechanism of how AINO happens,
[9:20] Speaker 2: which is when you have the heat. You know, during
[9:23] Speaker 2: the normal time, you have the heat being pushed toward
[9:26] Speaker 2: the west, and that heat is pushed toward ocean in
[9:29] Speaker 2: the La Nina phase you know, including the normal phase,
[9:32] Speaker 2: that the heat is stored into the ocean, and that
[9:36] Speaker 2: ocean will be accumulating heat and taking a lot of
[9:40] Speaker 2: heat from the atmosphere and eventually it reaches a state
[9:44] Speaker 2: that it can release that heat back into the atmosphere
[9:48] Speaker 2: and that is where Nino will happen. Now, when exactly
[9:54] Speaker 2: it releases that heat and what triggers it, we know
[9:58] Speaker 2: a lot about it, but it's not like you know,
[10:00] Speaker 2: so there's a random chance like the Westley what we
[10:02] Speaker 2: call Westley wind bursts is the reason. You know, it
[10:06] Speaker 2: weakens the trade wings, and the question of how strong
[10:11] Speaker 2: it will be depends on the amount of heat that
[10:14] Speaker 2: is stored and other ocean conditions, ocean dynamics, and the
[10:19] Speaker 2: release process. So what we know for sure is the
[10:24] Speaker 2: model takes into account all of these conditions and was
[10:28] Speaker 2: able to predict how strong it might become.
[10:33] Speaker 1: Yeah, and so this lat ninia and ninia phase the
[10:37] Speaker 1: cycle between two and seven years roughly and do this
[10:42] Speaker 1: process of absorbing the heat and then releasing the heat.
[10:46] Speaker 1: This is a natural phenomenon that has been happening on
[10:48] Speaker 1: the planet for a very long time now. Of course,
[10:51] Speaker 1: over there'st two hundred years we have been heating up
[10:53] Speaker 1: the planet by burning fossil fuels and adding to the
[10:56] Speaker 1: greenhouse gas blanket, which is heating up the planet, but
[11:00] Speaker 1: it's also heating up the ocean because when you're heating
[11:02] Speaker 1: the atmosphere, this lainar alminio system, and of course the
[11:06] Speaker 1: other oceans are absorbing the heat that's in the atmosphere. Yes,
[11:11] Speaker 1: Is it then that climate change, because of the heat
[11:16] Speaker 1: being built up in the atmosphere, is supercharging the al nino.
[11:21] Speaker 2: There are certainly possibilities that is happening, But currently the
[11:26] Speaker 2: models are not showing us for sure that the climate change,
[11:32] Speaker 2: the global warming for sulfiel induced, the global warming is
[11:36] Speaker 2: actually changing the behavior of the alnino itself. So anino
[11:42] Speaker 2: is still happening on a natural basis. It's an ocean
[11:45] Speaker 2: atmosphere interaction in the tropical Pacific. But what you said,
[11:49] Speaker 2: you know, that is something that we are all thinking about.
[11:53] Speaker 2: How much of it could be contributed by the fact
[11:56] Speaker 2: that the oceans taking up more heat.
[11:58] Speaker 1: Yes, the strongest al ninion record is known to be
[12:03] Speaker 1: between eighteen seventy seven and eighteen seventy eight, and there
[12:08] Speaker 1: are various impacts that came from that al nino and
[12:11] Speaker 1: that were quite severe. You know, the world was much
[12:14] Speaker 1: poorer a place back then. Something like fifty million people
[12:19] Speaker 1: were killed across India, China, Brazil. That's about three to
[12:22] Speaker 1: four percent of the global population at the time because
[12:25] Speaker 1: of the droughts that happened in the famine that was caused.
[12:30] Speaker 1: Now we are going into a strong super al ninio.
[12:35] Speaker 1: Are we better prepared? Do you think in twenty twenty six,
[12:40] Speaker 1: twenty seven with eight billion people on the planet.
[12:44] Speaker 2: I hope so, I suddenly hope so.
[12:48] Speaker 1: Yes.
[12:49] Speaker 2: Eighteen seventy six seventy eight is what we call a
[12:51] Speaker 2: great Faming period caused you know, severe drought across the globe,
[12:59] Speaker 2: as you already mentioned India, China, Africa as well as
[13:04] Speaker 2: Brazil as well Brazil, and those droughts obviously affected the
[13:10] Speaker 2: crop yield, so crop failed in many, many regions. And
[13:15] Speaker 2: one of the things I would say, the farming is
[13:19] Speaker 2: obviously not directly caused by just crop yield drop. That's contributed,
[13:25] Speaker 2: but a lot of it is policy as well. So
[13:28] Speaker 2: people didn't know we are going to get into this
[13:32] Speaker 2: period of you know, droughts in multiple regions. So for
[13:37] Speaker 2: example India, you know, the crop trading at the time
[13:40] Speaker 2: was continuing like normal. So one of the things I
[13:44] Speaker 2: would hope now we know is that we know exactly
[13:48] Speaker 2: what's going to happen. I mean, not exactly. I am
[13:51] Speaker 2: very high likelihood we are going into a supernien yo,
[13:54] Speaker 2: so we can be better prepared in terms of what
[13:58] Speaker 2: we can do about it. By the way, I should
[14:01] Speaker 2: mention India rainfalls already reduced this year. We're already seeing
[14:06] Speaker 2: the impact of this El Nino, and I believe the
[14:10] Speaker 2: onset of monsoon's delayed, which partially also led to some
[14:15] Speaker 2: of the you know, contributed to the to the heat
[14:17] Speaker 2: waves there earlier pre monsoon heat waves. So my hope
[14:22] Speaker 2: is that you know, people will be actually prepared in
[14:25] Speaker 2: the sense of delayed planting for example, for agriculture side
[14:30] Speaker 2: of things, and also not to uh you know, export crops.
[14:36] Speaker 2: You know, when when farming is, when when drugs coming
[14:40] Speaker 2: uh So, Yeah, I think there are a lot of
[14:43] Speaker 2: ways and technology as well.
[14:45] Speaker 1: Yeah, and in the recent decades when we have had
[14:50] Speaker 1: technology both to make predictions about al NIU and then
[14:56] Speaker 1: ideally make some policy changes. What are the recent strong
[15:01] Speaker 1: El Ninos that have happened and what kind of impacts
[15:05] Speaker 1: have they led to.
[15:06] Speaker 2: The most recent one is twenty three twenty four yo.
[15:10] Speaker 2: That one's actually really unusual. It's not a superos, it's
[15:15] Speaker 2: a strong eno. It's reached index reached one point five
[15:18] Speaker 2: degrees celsius so it is a strong on year, but
[15:22] Speaker 2: it's not a super one. One consequence of that nino
[15:28] Speaker 2: was the actual concurrent heat waves we experienced, you know,
[15:33] Speaker 2: in July twenty three, you know, the sum of twenty
[15:36] Speaker 2: three and both some of twenty three and twenty four.
[15:40] Speaker 2: In fact, we had lots and lots of heat waves
[15:43] Speaker 2: happening across different continents, and I think that is you know,
[15:49] Speaker 2: as we talked earlier, it is contributed partially by the
[15:54] Speaker 2: increase in global surface temperature on top of already gradually
[15:59] Speaker 2: increasing temperature.
[16:01] Speaker 1: Right the heat waves we are experiencing are the alineo
[16:04] Speaker 1: point two degree celsius temperature increase on top of the
[16:08] Speaker 1: one point two or one point four degrees celsius of
[16:11] Speaker 1: climate change that we have caused, and that makes the
[16:15] Speaker 1: heat waves even more extreme than they would have been
[16:18] Speaker 1: it we not cause climate change, yes, exactly. And in
[16:22] Speaker 1: that case, then is it accurate to say that, you know,
[16:27] Speaker 1: when we see this al ninio phase, we are sort
[16:30] Speaker 1: of getting a flavor of what extreme weather would look
[16:33] Speaker 1: like in five or ten years as we continue to
[16:37] Speaker 1: burn fossil fuels and heat up the planet.
[16:40] Speaker 2: Absolutely, I mean, we are definitely seeing the temperature continue
[16:43] Speaker 2: to rise. So on top of that, if we have
[16:47] Speaker 2: another super onion you're like this upcoming one, then that
[16:51] Speaker 2: that adds to another additional heat into the atmosphere. So
[16:55] Speaker 2: that kind of you know, higher global meanings surface temperature.
[17:00] Speaker 2: Obviously the global meaning when we say, you know, the
[17:02] Speaker 2: point five point two point point five degrees celsius is
[17:06] Speaker 2: in the global mean, it's regional. It can be much higher,
[17:09] Speaker 2: so they're not evenly distributed, so some regions may be
[17:13] Speaker 2: up to you know, one degree two degrees, right, So
[17:17] Speaker 2: that is a substantial amount being added. So we can
[17:20] Speaker 2: definitely expect to see a lot more of concurrent heat
[17:24] Speaker 2: when that happens, which means basically you are seeing heat
[17:28] Speaker 2: wave happening across different regions at the same time.
[17:32] Speaker 1: And let's just talk through some of the impacts we've mentioned.
[17:35] Speaker 1: In the eighteen seventy seven a linear the strongest ever,
[17:38] Speaker 1: there were famines. But the thing that Alinea does is
[17:42] Speaker 1: increases droughts in certain regions, but also increases flooding in
[17:46] Speaker 1: other regions. It just changes rainfall patterns in multiple places
[17:50] Speaker 1: and both can have impact on agricultural yields. But as
[17:55] Speaker 1: we've also become much more urban in the last two century.
[18:00] Speaker 1: It can have massive impacts on cities and people. The
[18:04] Speaker 1: twenty three twenty four al Ninia, for example, had catastrophic
[18:07] Speaker 1: floods in Kenya. And then there are other impacts from
[18:12] Speaker 1: Alninius that can come through. So the twenty fifteen twenty
[18:15] Speaker 1: sixteen al Niniu is known for having caused a lot
[18:18] Speaker 1: of cold bleaching, especially in the Great Barrier reef in Australia.
[18:23] Speaker 1: What other impacts should people be aware of?
[18:27] Speaker 2: Impact like wilderfires is wildfires is very severe as we know,
[18:33] Speaker 2: global warming already are causing dry, drier conditions in many
[18:38] Speaker 2: regions like California for example, southwestern US, and so that
[18:43] Speaker 2: already increased wildfire risk. So in this Caseino is very
[18:49] Speaker 2: well known to be linked to increase the wildfire risk
[18:52] Speaker 2: in regions like Indonesia, Northern Australia, Eastern Australia where the
[19:01] Speaker 2: suppressed the rainfall happens. You know, when the rainfall shifts
[19:04] Speaker 2: toward the Central Pacific, the warm water moves toward the east,
[19:10] Speaker 2: the rainfall also moves with it. So that is causing
[19:13] Speaker 2: a lot of the drying conditions there and a lot
[19:16] Speaker 2: of fires. One of them as you pointed out. Flooding
[19:19] Speaker 2: is another common risk associated with El Nino in regions
[19:25] Speaker 2: like the California West south southern US and some part
[19:30] Speaker 2: of proving you know, coast regions there can be really
[19:36] Speaker 2: severe flooding that can lead to landslides for example, hazards
[19:42] Speaker 2: like that.
[19:43] Speaker 1: One way in which one of the scientists explained to
[19:46] Speaker 1: me the super part of the al nino was to
[19:50] Speaker 1: think about the things that put heat into the ocean
[19:54] Speaker 1: which then eventually comes out. So one is, because of
[19:57] Speaker 1: human cross climate change, we are heating up the planet.
[20:00] Speaker 1: Some of that heat is being transferred into the ocean.
[20:03] Speaker 1: The other is the La Ninia phase, which is a
[20:05] Speaker 1: phase where there is more than normal heat that is
[20:09] Speaker 1: absorbed by the oceans and then it gets stored in
[20:12] Speaker 1: the Pacific. And typically an el nino follows a La
[20:16] Speaker 1: Ninia and so you get sort of a battery that
[20:21] Speaker 1: is being charged, then that gets released in the El nino.
[20:25] Speaker 1: And then there are other factors that we are still
[20:28] Speaker 1: to understand. And of course this is a very complex phenomenon,
[20:33] Speaker 1: so all the factors are not yet understood. But is
[20:37] Speaker 1: there any other factor that we should be thinking about
[20:40] Speaker 1: on how much more heat is released in an al nino.
[20:43] Speaker 2: I think you have covered most of it. You're understanding
[20:46] Speaker 2: is so complete. I can't think of any additional factor
[20:52] Speaker 2: that we haven't talked about. I think, you know, yes,
[20:58] Speaker 2: ultimately we are still trying to understand better. One of
[21:03] Speaker 2: the things you mentioned is La Nina before al Nino,
[21:07] Speaker 2: which is a phase that heat is me put into
[21:12] Speaker 2: the ocean storage phase. So there were studies indicating the
[21:16] Speaker 2: longer the La Nina. Laanina seems, you know, tend to
[21:19] Speaker 2: be lasting longer, not this time. This time, you know,
[21:22] Speaker 2: after the twenty three twenty four al Nino, we entered
[21:26] Speaker 2: the Laina phase and pretty much just ended right before
[21:30] Speaker 2: this al Nino, so it wasn't a super long Laina's
[21:34] Speaker 2: you know, heat storage phase. So there are studies indicating
[21:39] Speaker 2: the longer Laanina phase could lead to stronger al Ninho,
[21:44] Speaker 2: but I don't think that is being widely accepted as
[21:48] Speaker 2: a valid mechanism because we don't see that in data.
[21:53] Speaker 2: So that could be one, you know, it's how La
[21:57] Speaker 2: Nina behaves right before El Nino that could determine the
[22:01] Speaker 2: intensity of the following nino. But ultimately, I think we
[22:05] Speaker 2: still have a lot up to to understand.
[22:08] Speaker 1: And then one of the scientists I was listening to said,
[22:11] Speaker 1: no two el ninos are the same. What does that mean, right?
[22:16] Speaker 2: So first of all, not yes, exactly, it means none
[22:21] Speaker 2: of the no two. You can you can try to
[22:24] Speaker 2: find the exact replica of you know, theinos. They always
[22:28] Speaker 2: differ in some ways. But I think what it means
[22:31] Speaker 2: more is that even if you have identical al Ninho,
[22:35] Speaker 2: the impact will never be exactly the same. I think
[22:39] Speaker 2: that is more of what you know we usually mean
[22:42] Speaker 2: in the sense that Ninho is putting you know again
[22:46] Speaker 2: the weight to the you know, the the diyce. So
[22:50] Speaker 2: it's not the only factor. Rainfall patterns here and there,
[22:55] Speaker 2: you know, droughts and all of that that can be
[22:57] Speaker 2: impacted by multiple factors in the climate system. Nino is
[23:02] Speaker 2: just adding a weight to one direction. So depending on
[23:08] Speaker 2: how the climate, the weather pattern itself evolves in the
[23:13] Speaker 2: under a Certainino condition, you can get a very different
[23:17] Speaker 2: impact in different regions.
[23:23] Speaker 1: After the break, I ask Professor Ming Functing how climate
[23:27] Speaker 1: scientists are responding in the phase of increased political attacks.
[23:31] Speaker 1: If you've learned something new from zero, please do give
[23:34] Speaker 1: us a rating on your favorite podcast app it helps
[23:38] Speaker 1: new listeners find the show. Now, this is all happening
[23:54] Speaker 1: at a time where, at least in the US, there
[23:58] Speaker 1: are attacks from governments, from political actors on climate science itself. Now,
[24:04] Speaker 1: climate science is not new to political attacks. These have
[24:08] Speaker 1: happened over the past three decades in many different ways,
[24:11] Speaker 1: and the climate scientists community, including yourself, have worked to
[24:15] Speaker 1: try and figure out what is the best way to
[24:18] Speaker 1: showcase the work that you're doing, why it helps people,
[24:22] Speaker 1: what are the facts, and how it allows us to
[24:25] Speaker 1: prepare for a better world. But particularly in this period,
[24:30] Speaker 1: you know, there are direct impacts that can come through
[24:34] Speaker 1: on people's lived experiences. So there was a recent proposal
[24:39] Speaker 1: from the Trump administration to dismantle the ocean monitoring system
[24:44] Speaker 1: that you talked about, which can help us predict and
[24:46] Speaker 1: al ninio. Of course, Congress has stopped that from happening,
[24:52] Speaker 1: and so the ocean monitoring system will continue to support
[24:57] Speaker 1: El Nino work for much longer. As a climate scientist,
[25:01] Speaker 1: how have you been affected?
[25:04] Speaker 2: We are all affected in different ways. One of the
[25:07] Speaker 2: biggest impact is the funding itself. So you know, you
[25:12] Speaker 2: we are all our works depend on funding. You know,
[25:14] Speaker 2: our graduate students, post docs, uh, you know, at other
[25:18] Speaker 2: facilities that we need to to to do the work. Myself,
[25:22] Speaker 2: I'm not an observational climate scientist in a sense that
[25:27] Speaker 2: I don't go out and collect data, but as you
[25:30] Speaker 2: pointed out, that is a super important part of our
[25:33] Speaker 2: research because we rely on data and my work is
[25:37] Speaker 2: mostly rely on model so that needs supercomputer infrastructure like
[25:42] Speaker 2: that to help us continue our research. So one of
[25:47] Speaker 2: the things I wanted to bring up is, you know,
[25:50] Speaker 2: climate science itself, it's a physical science, it's not really political.
[25:55] Speaker 2: But I think we we can communicate better in the sense,
[25:59] Speaker 2: you know, it is a kind of like you know,
[26:02] Speaker 2: you're thinking about throw a dice, you're really saying you're
[26:06] Speaker 2: putting weight on certain high numbers climate changes. That is
[26:10] Speaker 2: basically doing that. You know, you're not equal chance of
[26:14] Speaker 2: getting all the numbers, but rather now you're getting the
[26:16] Speaker 2: extremes more likely.
[26:18] Speaker 1: Yeah, and thinking about life in probability terms is very
[26:23] Speaker 1: difficult for people in general, even for people who understand
[26:27] Speaker 1: probability and who are working on statistical methods, and so
[26:32] Speaker 1: that becomes a difficult issue to communicate. But one field
[26:36] Speaker 1: that is emerging that is trying to make this communication
[26:40] Speaker 1: simpler to say, not all extreme weather is caused by
[26:44] Speaker 1: climate change, but some we can clearly show the link
[26:48] Speaker 1: to climate change, and that science is extreme weather attribution science.
[26:54] Speaker 1: Can you just walk us through what extreme weather attribution
[26:58] Speaker 1: work looks like.
[26:59] Speaker 2: Yes, Uh, this is a very mature science. Now we're
[27:03] Speaker 2: basically using models to help us understand what is likely, Uh,
[27:08] Speaker 2: this event happened. Let's say europeanky wave currently where we're
[27:13] Speaker 2: all talking about it. So how likely this event would
[27:18] Speaker 2: happen in a world without fossil fuel versus with fossil fuel.
[27:24] Speaker 2: We run model runs with those two conditions and then
[27:28] Speaker 2: get a probable probability of this kind of event happening.
[27:33] Speaker 2: And I don't know if you've heard, you know, read
[27:36] Speaker 2: the news report. The weather World Weather Attribution Group has
[27:41] Speaker 2: already done that and they're always, you know, really fast
[27:45] Speaker 2: in producing that. And the conclusion there is that it's
[27:51] Speaker 2: very unlikely, uh, this event would happen without fossil fuel
[27:56] Speaker 2: contribution into the climate warming.
[28:00] Speaker 1: Yeah, we're recording this episode during the heat wave in
[28:04] Speaker 1: Europe in June, and the study says that this is
[28:09] Speaker 1: the worst recorded heat wave in Europe and that it
[28:13] Speaker 1: would be virtually impossible without human cost climate change. Having
[28:17] Speaker 1: run this model, and one of the scientists who was
[28:21] Speaker 1: involved in the study put it very plainly. It's Frederica Otto,
[28:26] Speaker 1: she's a professor at Imperial College London, and she said, yes,
[28:30] Speaker 1: this is climate change. Yes it is us causing this
[28:33] Speaker 1: climate change. No, it's not el Ninio that is making
[28:37] Speaker 1: this extreme heat wave worse. And then she adds, we
[28:41] Speaker 1: have the solutions and we are not implementing them fast enough.
[28:46] Speaker 1: And that clear communication is of course coming from a
[28:49] Speaker 1: base of, as you said, a mature science. But there's
[28:53] Speaker 1: already a layer of politics getting involved.
[28:57] Speaker 2: Now.
[28:57] Speaker 1: The US National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine are
[29:01] Speaker 1: conducting a study to look at attribution science. They did
[29:04] Speaker 1: so a decade ago, and now methods have improved and
[29:08] Speaker 1: become more precise, and so they are doing another study
[29:11] Speaker 1: to look at effectiveness of these methods. And there is
[29:17] Speaker 1: an effort from political actors, some in the governments, some
[29:21] Speaker 1: in think tanks, who want to weaken attribution science's value
[29:27] Speaker 1: because they worry that it will be used in courts
[29:32] Speaker 1: to try and hold powerful actors like governments or corporations
[29:36] Speaker 1: to account. What can scientists do to ensure that attribution
[29:41] Speaker 1: science doesn't come under these kinds of political attack.
[29:45] Speaker 2: Again, you know, attribution science itself is a science. So
[29:50] Speaker 2: you know, I'm not familiar with this new attribution study
[29:55] Speaker 2: conducting under National Science econdom of Science. But even if
[30:01] Speaker 2: they redo it, they'll be using the best model available,
[30:06] Speaker 2: and I can't imagine scientists would claim otherwise the results
[30:13] Speaker 2: are going to be what it is. But it is probabilistic,
[30:18] Speaker 2: so it's you know, even though it is virtually impossible,
[30:21] Speaker 2: it doesn't mean it's completely impossible. This could happen without
[30:25] Speaker 2: climate change, so you know, communication like you know, adding
[30:30] Speaker 2: some kind of emphasis, you know, compared to nineteen seventies
[30:35] Speaker 2: I think in their their study they've already done that
[30:37] Speaker 2: compared to nineteen seventies condition where fossil fuel has already
[30:41] Speaker 2: you know, been burning for a while, and it's about
[30:45] Speaker 2: two hundred times less likely in the nineteen seventies condition.
[30:49] Speaker 2: So I think put out more numbers like this could help.
[30:55] Speaker 2: So this is not you know, something we just come,
[31:00] Speaker 2: you know, the sort of grab out of the same air.
[31:03] Speaker 2: I think, you know, I believe in scientists in category.
[31:06] Speaker 2: I think, you know, if people are truly believing. You know,
[31:10] Speaker 2: they are exploring possibilities. The conclusions drawn by one group
[31:16] Speaker 2: may not be accurate. I'm totally for it. I think
[31:19] Speaker 2: the more the better.
[31:22] Speaker 1: Yeah, And two hundred times more likely or less likely
[31:25] Speaker 1: is a huge number. Right. If suddenly somewhere were to
[31:28] Speaker 1: tell me, if you cross the road today, there's a
[31:33] Speaker 1: two hundred times more likelihood that you'll get hit by
[31:36] Speaker 1: a car, I would be scared. I would take care
[31:39] Speaker 1: about crossing the road. I would make sure that the
[31:41] Speaker 1: traffic light is red and not crossover without that same
[31:45] Speaker 1: thing with you know, taking a plane or a car.
[31:48] Speaker 1: If you are going to die, then the probability increases
[31:52] Speaker 1: by two hundred times.
[31:53] Speaker 2: Yes, you would be.
[31:53] Speaker 1: Very careful and so absolute. People must heed what the
[31:57] Speaker 1: statistics are telling us.
[31:59] Speaker 2: Yes, I think another example we can talk about it
[32:02] Speaker 2: is smoking. You know a lot of people believe smoking
[32:05] Speaker 2: increases the chance of getting lung cancer, and I hope
[32:11] Speaker 2: a lot of young people, you know, learn that and
[32:14] Speaker 2: not not stop smoking because they know the probability shift, right,
[32:19] Speaker 2: the odds change. So absolutely, I agree with you. The
[32:23] Speaker 2: two hundred times is huge number, and we definitely should
[32:28] Speaker 2: heat to to that, you know, change our behavior in
[32:32] Speaker 2: some ways fun. You're welcome.
[32:41] Speaker 1: And thank you for listening to Zero. Now for the
[32:43] Speaker 1: sound of the week. That is the sound of Lover
[32:58] Speaker 1: flowing from the most recent era option of Mount Etna,
[33:01] Speaker 1: which happened on the twenty sixth of June on the
[33:03] Speaker 1: Italian island of Sicily. If you liked this episode, please
[33:08] Speaker 1: take a moment to rate and review the show on
[33:10] Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, YouTube, and Spotify. This episode was produced by
[33:14] Speaker 1: Soamersadi and Oscar boyd Our. Theme music is composed by
[33:18] Speaker 1: Wonderly Special thanks to Blake Maples, Laura Milan and Alissa McDonald.
[33:24] Speaker 1: I am Akshatrati back soon.

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