# After Months of Succession Planning, Who’s Leading Iran?

An episode of [Big Take](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1578096201), 2 Mar 2026, 15 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/tracking.swap.fm/track/UVBrz8bN8aM2Xe47PEPu/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/825d4e29-b616-46f4-afd7-ae2b0013005c/fc7e7c6a-3747-41e4-8f1e-b4010174aa55/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=8b1dd624-a026-43e9-8b57-ae2b00130066

The US and Israel’s attacks on Iran have entered their third day — and President Donald Trump said Monday that the US military operation could continue for weeks, or more. On today’s Big Take podcast, reporter Golnar Motevalli talks to host Sarah Holder about the widening regional conflict, Iran’s succession plans and what we know about the end game for the US as President Trump vows to do “whatever it takes.” Follow Bloomberg’s live coverage here. Hosted by Sarah Holder; Produced by Julia Press and Eleanor Harrison-Dengate; Reported by Golnar Motevalli; Edited by Jeffrey Grocott. Fact-checking by David Fox and Rachael Lewis-Krisky; Engineering by Katie McMurran. Senior Producer: Naomi Shavin; Deputy Executive Producer: Julia Weaver. Executive Producer: Nicole Beemsterboer. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
[0:08] Speaker 2: Today, the United States military continues to carry out large
[0:12] Speaker 2: scale combat operations in Iran.
[0:15] Speaker 3: The US and Israel's attacks on Iran have entered their
[0:18] Speaker 3: third day, and President Donald Trump said Monday that the
[0:21] Speaker 3: US's military operation could continue for weeks or more.
[0:25] Speaker 2: Whatever it takes. We will always and we have right
[0:30] Speaker 2: from the beginning. We projected four to five weeks, but
[0:34] Speaker 2: we have capability to go far longer than that.
[0:38] Speaker 3: The US is now sending additional forces to the region,
[0:41] Speaker 3: and Trump told the New York Posts that he hadn't
[0:43] Speaker 3: ruled out putting US troops on the ground. As of
[0:47] Speaker 3: Monday afternoon, six US service members and hundreds of Iranians
[0:51] Speaker 3: have been killed. The attacks have set off a chain
[0:55] Speaker 3: reaction across the region. The Iranian regime and its proxies
[0:59] Speaker 3: launched targeted strikes in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait after
[1:04] Speaker 3: Hezbollah fired missiles towards Israel. Israel struck Lebanon. Saudi Arabia
[1:09] Speaker 3: was reported that one of their oil refineries was targeted
[1:13] Speaker 3: in one of the Iranian strikes.
[1:14] Speaker 4: We have several fronts opening up, a number of Gulf
[1:17] Speaker 4: Arab countries that also found themselves in the firing line.
[1:21] Speaker 1: We've seen Haspallat joining the fight right.
[1:23] Speaker 3: Now, and on Monday, an advisor to Iran's Revolutionary Guard
[1:26] Speaker 3: commander announced on state television that they would not let
[1:29] Speaker 3: any oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz and would
[1:32] Speaker 3: set fire to any ship attempting to pass. Oil prices
[1:36] Speaker 3: had already spiked off the news of the weekend attack.
[1:39] Speaker 3: European gas prices surged more than fifty percent on Monday,
[1:42] Speaker 3: and Brent krude was up as much as thirteen percent
[1:45] Speaker 3: at the market open, clearing eighty two dollars a barrel.
[1:48] Speaker 3: The attack on Iran and killing of its supreme leader
[1:51] Speaker 3: Ali Hamane leaves open questions about who will rule the
[1:55] Speaker 3: country now, what the war could mean for global oil prices,
[1:58] Speaker 3: and how long the US's involvement might last.
[2:02] Speaker 2: Somebody said today, they said, oh, well, the president wants
[2:05] Speaker 2: to do it really quickly. After that, he'll get bored.
[2:07] Speaker 2: I don't get bored. There's nothing boring about this.
[2:16] Speaker 3: I'm Sarah Holder, and this is the big take from
[2:18] Speaker 3: Bloomberg News Today. On the show, Bloomberg's Golner Motavali on
[2:22] Speaker 3: the succession plan for the Supreme Leader in Iran and
[2:25] Speaker 3: the efforts to keep oil prices in check amid the
[2:27] Speaker 3: widening conflict across the Middle East. Bloomberg's Golner Motavali has
[2:36] Speaker 3: been following the story since news of the US and
[2:38] Speaker 3: Israel's attacks on Iran broke, along with our reporters across
[2:42] Speaker 3: the globe. Golnard, You've been anticipating this conflict could erupt
[2:46] Speaker 3: for weeks now.
[2:48] Speaker 4: Yes, I think generally, since Israel last attacked Iran in
[2:52] Speaker 4: June and triggered the Twelve Day War, which obviously the
[2:56] Speaker 4: US joined at the very end.
[2:58] Speaker 1: With the attacks on Iran's.
[2:59] Speaker 4: Nucleus, I think there was generally a sense that the Israelis,
[3:04] Speaker 4: if not the Americans, would attack Iran again, and I
[3:08] Speaker 4: think it was clear that the Iranians themselves were definitely
[3:12] Speaker 4: preparing for that. And my senses is that they went
[3:16] Speaker 4: into these last round of nuclear talks with the Americans
[3:20] Speaker 4: knowing that it was a possibility.
[3:21] Speaker 3: Well around Supreme Leader Ali Kamani was killed in a
[3:24] Speaker 3: targeted strike over the weekend. Iran was preparing. As you said,
[3:27] Speaker 3: they also had a plan for the death of the
[3:30] Speaker 3: Supreme Leader. What do we know about it.
[3:32] Speaker 4: We've seen reports over the past couple of weeks that, again,
[3:38] Speaker 4: since June, there has been a real serious effort to
[3:43] Speaker 4: just strategize and make plans for various scenarios and eventualities,
[3:50] Speaker 4: and part of that is increasing the layers of succession
[3:55] Speaker 4: for different leadership roles across these different security institutions and
[4:00] Speaker 4: military bodies, whether it's the IRGC, whether it's the Supreme
[4:04] Speaker 4: National Security Council.
[4:06] Speaker 1: Whether it's the new National Defense Council that.
[4:09] Speaker 4: Was established after the war with Israel in June.
[4:11] Speaker 1: So these contingencies exist.
[4:14] Speaker 4: And they are a number of layers thick according to
[4:19] Speaker 4: some sort of unconfirmed reports we've seen in terms of personnel.
[4:23] Speaker 4: So if there's one strike that gets rid of one
[4:25] Speaker 4: as Shalon, then you know there'll be someone underneath it
[4:27] Speaker 4: to take over. That's going to be increasingly challenging because
[4:34] Speaker 4: I'm guessing that there is a point at which you've
[4:37] Speaker 4: gone through all the layers of seniority. Having said that,
[4:41] Speaker 4: Iran's armed forces are substantial in sights, and there is
[4:47] Speaker 4: a sizeable proportion of Iran's population that is still very
[4:50] Speaker 4: loyal to the regime, it's questionable whether they are the majority.
[4:55] Speaker 4: I do not think they are at all. But Iran
[4:57] Speaker 4: is a country of ninety million people, and I still
[5:00] Speaker 4: there is a large number of people who are very
[5:01] Speaker 4: loyal to the Islamic Republic and who are part of
[5:06] Speaker 4: the governing political military apparatus that runs the country. Most
[5:11] Speaker 4: of the ranking individuals who were lost over the weekend
[5:15] Speaker 4: they've been replaced. They've announced this interim security Council that
[5:20] Speaker 4: consists of three very senior individuals, and one of whom
[5:25] Speaker 4: is from the Guardian Council, a very senior cleric who's
[5:29] Speaker 4: also rumored, this is completely speculative, but rumored as someone
[5:33] Speaker 4: who may also be in the running to ultimately replace
[5:36] Speaker 4: the Supreme Leader. But that three member council are at
[5:40] Speaker 4: the moment caretaking for decisions that would have otherwise been
[5:44] Speaker 4: taken by the Supreme Leader, and they're working very closely
[5:47] Speaker 4: with the head of the Supreme National Security Council, who
[5:49] Speaker 4: is Ali Lara Jarni, and the elected President Massu with Pezeshkia,
[5:54] Speaker 4: it takes on an even more prominent role than before
[5:57] Speaker 4: as well.
[5:59] Speaker 3: Well. On Saturday and the hours after the attack, President
[6:01] Speaker 3: Trump made a statement urging the people of around to
[6:03] Speaker 3: quote take over your government how likely is it that
[6:07] Speaker 3: the Iranian opposition will take power now and what would
[6:11] Speaker 3: that look like.
[6:11] Speaker 4: One of the achievements, if you want to use that word,
[6:15] Speaker 4: of the regime of the Exam Republic in the past
[6:19] Speaker 4: fifty years has been to very successfully ensure that an
[6:24] Speaker 4: effective opposition just cannot exist in the country, and anyone
[6:29] Speaker 4: who does speak up for the rights of women, just
[6:32] Speaker 4: basic human rights, civil liberties, they face prosecution and most
[6:37] Speaker 4: of them are in jail. But the population by and
[6:41] Speaker 4: large are very opposed and have been very opposed to
[6:45] Speaker 4: the Exam Republic for some time, and we have seen,
[6:48] Speaker 4: especially since twenty nineteen, the numbers of not just people
[6:52] Speaker 4: killed actively in protests go up, along with the numbers
[6:57] Speaker 4: of protests that actually take place, but also the number
[7:00] Speaker 4: of judicial executions as well that happened in the country.
[7:08] Speaker 3: After the break, Gulnar and I discussed what we know
[7:11] Speaker 3: about the US's endgame and how the war is already
[7:15] Speaker 3: impacting the flow and the price of oil.
[7:27] Speaker 2: We're ensuring that the world's number one sponsor of terror
[7:32] Speaker 2: can never obtain a nuclear weapon.
[7:35] Speaker 3: On the US side, I want to talk about what
[7:37] Speaker 3: Trump and Trump administration officials have said is the US
[7:40] Speaker 3: endgame here, How have officials explained why the US attacked
[7:44] Speaker 3: and what the plan is now?
[7:46] Speaker 4: The rational behind the US decision to attack Iran has changed.
[7:52] Speaker 4: Donald Trump's motivations for threatening Iran or threaten threatening regime
[7:59] Speaker 4: change have sort of flipped between wanting to protect the protesters,
[8:06] Speaker 4: many of whom who were under arrest were also at
[8:09] Speaker 4: risk of execution, but also then using the nuclear program,
[8:15] Speaker 4: Iran's nuclear program as a pretext to threaten and to
[8:19] Speaker 4: attack Iran. And one thing that's been interesting is that
[8:24] Speaker 4: both Donald Trump and Keir Starmer have referred to this
[8:27] Speaker 4: idea of you know, Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.
[8:31] Speaker 4: American officials have been saying this repeatedly for years, and
[8:36] Speaker 4: Iran has been saying repeatedly for years that we do
[8:39] Speaker 4: not intend to have a nuclear weapon.
[8:41] Speaker 1: Our program is for peaceful purposes.
[8:44] Speaker 4: Only now, you know, obviously it's not good enough to
[8:49] Speaker 4: just say that. The negotiations, the round that they were
[8:51] Speaker 4: meant to have this week before the attacks started on Saturday,
[8:56] Speaker 4: was to provide Americans with a sense of confidence, an
[9:01] Speaker 4: iron clad guarantee that Iran would not weaponize its nuclear program.
[9:08] Speaker 4: And there's also been this argument that the more that
[9:12] Speaker 4: you push Iran and threaten it and do various things
[9:19] Speaker 4: like pilon sanctions, designate the RGC as a terrorist organization,
[9:25] Speaker 4: kill someone like General ars Same. Solemney abandoned the nuclear
[9:28] Speaker 4: deal that Barack Obama agreed with the Iranians on the
[9:33] Speaker 4: basis that it was Barack Obama's deal and you.
[9:35] Speaker 1: Felt that it was a good deal.
[9:37] Speaker 4: There's a school of thought that says doing this actually
[9:41] Speaker 4: pushes Iran further towards the calculation that having a nuclear
[9:47] Speaker 4: weapon is actually probably what it needs. And that is
[9:50] Speaker 4: something that Lara Jani, who is now very prominent at
[9:54] Speaker 4: the moment in Iran's decision making apparatus, has said in
[9:57] Speaker 4: the past. Right now, Iran is a member of the
[9:59] Speaker 4: Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty, and that means that it is
[10:03] Speaker 4: prohibited from trying to acquire or developing nuclear weapons, but
[10:09] Speaker 4: it is also allowed to pursue a peaceful civilian nuclear program,
[10:14] Speaker 4: and Iranian officials have been insisting this is what they want.
[10:18] Speaker 4: The problem is is that there is no trust between
[10:21] Speaker 4: them and between countries like Israel, who have been threatened
[10:25] Speaker 4: by Iran for years and years and years and years
[10:27] Speaker 4: and are deeply uncomfortable with the idea of a country
[10:31] Speaker 4: like Iran having indigenous nuclear enrichment capability.
[10:37] Speaker 3: So gonna I want to talk about the economic impacts
[10:40] Speaker 3: of this world. Oil prices have spaked, but not to
[10:43] Speaker 3: the extent that some have feared. Why is that.
[10:47] Speaker 4: I think a lot of people are, or the market
[10:51] Speaker 4: at least may be taking into consideration the fact that
[10:54] Speaker 4: this can't go on forever, that there's a limit to
[10:58] Speaker 4: what both sides are able to maybe be tolerate. There's
[11:01] Speaker 4: certainly a limit to what the golf Arab states in
[11:05] Speaker 4: the Persian Gulf and stomach. They did not want to
[11:08] Speaker 4: get dragged into this war. They didn't want this. From
[11:10] Speaker 4: what we know from our sources is that they tried
[11:14] Speaker 4: to dissuade Donald Trump from going into this war. They
[11:18] Speaker 4: were very active in trying to facilitate the negotiations and
[11:23] Speaker 4: mediate between Steve Witcoff and the Uranian Forum Minster Appos
[11:27] Speaker 4: Arakchi because they didn't want a war. They don't want
[11:31] Speaker 4: missiles flying around their countries and populations. And these are
[11:34] Speaker 4: oil producing countries whose budgets depend on their ability to
[11:42] Speaker 4: sell oil at a certain price.
[11:44] Speaker 3: And opek Plus has responded by saying, you know, they're
[11:46] Speaker 3: going to resume oil production increases. Could that continue to
[11:51] Speaker 3: moderate oil prices if this conflict continues.
[11:54] Speaker 4: Yeah, if they're not deciding to cut and they're actually
[11:56] Speaker 4: deciding to even ramp up production, that will definitely have
[12:01] Speaker 4: an impact on prices. It's just unclear at this stage
[12:04] Speaker 4: to what extent how much of the gains that a
[12:08] Speaker 4: decision like that will help to erase at this point.
[12:11] Speaker 3: And Gondard, this is a very fast moving situation. There's
[12:15] Speaker 3: questions about Iranian succession plans, about further attacks in the region,
[12:19] Speaker 3: about the ripple effects on the global economy. But where
[12:22] Speaker 3: do you expect this conflict to go from here? What
[12:25] Speaker 3: are you watching for in the hours and days ahead.
[12:28] Speaker 4: I think the one thing that concerns me a great
[12:30] Speaker 4: deal is the civilian toll, the number of civilians that
[12:34] Speaker 4: are being killed right now, particularly in Iran. It's very
[12:40] Speaker 4: difficult to rely on the state media in Iran to
[12:45] Speaker 4: give a death toll and to kind of break down
[12:48] Speaker 4: that death toll in terms of civilians, and the same
[12:51] Speaker 4: with infrastructure, with the loss of infrastructure.
[12:55] Speaker 1: In Iran and.
[12:58] Speaker 4: Just the basic basic eydea that there doesn't seem to
[13:02] Speaker 4: be any long term planning or thinking on the American
[13:09] Speaker 4: side or amongst the Israelis about what happens in Iran next.
[13:16] Speaker 4: I think Pete Hegseth said today that this wasn't a
[13:20] Speaker 4: regime change.
[13:21] Speaker 1: War, but it did change the regime.
[13:23] Speaker 4: And then he said something along the lines of we'll
[13:26] Speaker 4: leave it to the Iranians to decide what to do it.
[13:29] Speaker 4: And I think there's a recklessness in that inherent in
[13:34] Speaker 4: that statement, because it's a way of saying, we're just gonna,
[13:39] Speaker 4: you know, do the attack. This phrase that often people
[13:45] Speaker 4: use cut off the head of the snake and then
[13:48] Speaker 4: just let people to get on with it, and I
[13:50] Speaker 4: don't know what that means getting on with it. I'm
[13:54] Speaker 4: not sure that anyone's really thought that through, and that's.
[13:59] Speaker 1: What what worries me.
[14:01] Speaker 4: I think the concept of regime change as we know
[14:05] Speaker 4: it is freighted with the weight of that question and
[14:09] Speaker 4: always has been. And partly the reason why it has
[14:12] Speaker 4: been is because I don't think there are that many
[14:15] Speaker 4: examples in history where this type of intervention has ever
[14:20] Speaker 4: been successful led to anything good fast.
[14:31] Speaker 3: This is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah
[14:34] Speaker 3: Holder to get more from the Big Take and unlimited
[14:37] Speaker 3: access to all of bloomberg dot Com. Subscribe today at
[14:41] Speaker 3: Bloomberg dot com. Slash Podcast offer Thanks for listening. We'll
[14:45] Speaker 3: be back tomorrow

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