# SAS Commander Breaks Down the WW3 Threat & Australia’s Role in a Global Conflict

An episode of [Straight Talk with Mark Bouris](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1572546872), 11 Mar 2026, 1 h 22 min.

Audio: https://p.podderapp.com/2544644999/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/2fb3740d-3436-44af-8cc0-a91900716aa5/1c4759f0-81fc-4f35-85d1-b305004fc1e8/d75019be-efdc-4e82-8392-b40a00749cf4/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=573776d2-4dbd-4f2f-a825-b305004fc1ef

Mark Wales is a former SAS soldier who served multiple tours in Afghanistan and Iraq, now providing strategic analysis on the unfolding Middle East conflict and Australia's defence vulnerabilities. Wales breaks down the current Iran operation, explaining how it differs from previous Middle East campaigns and why traditional military technology still requires boots on the ground. He discusses Australia's concerning defence gaps, from our 35-day fuel reserves to our minimal submarine fleet, and explains how geopolitical tensions could cascade into a broader global conflict involving multiple fronts. We get into: • The strategic differences between Al-Qaeda and Taliban operations in Afghanistan • Why Iran's nuclear capabilities represent a regional tipping point • How Israel's long-term intelligence operations enabled recent strikes • Australia's critical defence vulnerabilities and fuel supply risks • The role of robotics and AI in modern warfare • China's military capabilities and Pacific theatre implications • Why current conflicts could escalate into multi-front warfare Find out more about Mark Wales here: https://www.markwales.com.au/summary Join my exclusive Mentored+ community: https://mentored.com.au/become-a-member/ See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: Mark Wales walking straight talk mate, Thanks for me good timing.
[0:04] Speaker 1: Do you feel you're putting on a uniform and sort
[0:06] Speaker 1: of going back out there?
[0:07] Speaker 2: Oh no, I had a few mates joke with me
[0:08] Speaker 2: about I think my back will We saw the day
[0:10] Speaker 2: they asked us to return.
[0:12] Speaker 1: So you have some background in this. Certainly give us
[0:15] Speaker 1: a bit of background on what Mark Wales did before
[0:18] Speaker 1: he became a survivor a survival player.
[0:22] Speaker 2: Yeah, I was so. I joined the Army young, but
[0:26] Speaker 2: then I was at the mid nineties, went through off
[0:28] Speaker 2: training and then by two thousand and one Army starting
[0:31] Speaker 2: to go to East Team or plays like that. But
[0:35] Speaker 2: Afghanistan hadn't really picked up until two thousand and five.
[0:37] Speaker 2: That's when I joined SAS and then we deployed their
[0:40] Speaker 2: flat out for kind of six seven years and that
[0:45] Speaker 2: was the start of Australia's experience there and that was
[0:47] Speaker 2: when I got most of my exposure to the Middle
[0:50] Speaker 2: East from that two thousand and five to maybe twenty
[0:52] Speaker 2: ten period. But during that time I was in Afghanistan
[0:55] Speaker 2: a lot, Iraq quite a bit, Lebanon a bit, and
[1:00] Speaker 2: plenty of time in the golf states like Iman Abadhabi
[1:04] Speaker 2: sorry not Ababi Dubai, So I saw the region a
[1:08] Speaker 2: fair bit during that time.
[1:10] Speaker 1: As an essay soldier assayer as a soldier, but seeing
[1:15] Speaker 1: active duty in all those areas.
[1:17] Speaker 2: Active duty in pretty much all those areas, mostly Afghanistan
[1:21] Speaker 2: was where a heavy lifting was happening for sure.
[1:24] Speaker 1: What's like, I mean, I guess you're finding the Taliban
[1:28] Speaker 1: as well as who ruses are the Russians who are
[1:32] Speaker 1: ruses in the area. I mean, with the Russians still
[1:34] Speaker 1: in Afghanistan during that period, no, that would go out.
[1:36] Speaker 2: But I mean, and the reason we went there is
[1:39] Speaker 2: to deal with the al Qaeda guys initially which and
[1:43] Speaker 2: then the Taliban who were obviously housing them. But the
[1:46] Speaker 2: Taliban never really had this broad kind of apocalyptic agenda
[1:50] Speaker 2: the way al Qaida did. They're very different groups, so.
[1:53] Speaker 1: I think it'd explained who both are. It's just for
[1:56] Speaker 1: a history historical sense.
[1:58] Speaker 2: So a quick breakdown. Al Qaeda came from I guess
[2:03] Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia and this extremist belief in establishing Islamic caliphate.
[2:09] Speaker 2: They very aligned against the West. They wanted to break
[2:12] Speaker 2: down our dominance in the Middle East, which led to
[2:15] Speaker 2: attacks on the US, the coal in Yemen and then
[2:20] Speaker 2: eventually September eleventh. So they were a serious terrorist organization
[2:24] Speaker 2: led by Bin Laden, whereas the Taliban were a nationalist
[2:29] Speaker 2: force that took over in the civil wars that happened
[2:32] Speaker 2: after the Soviets left. So in the nineties the place
[2:35] Speaker 2: collapsed into chaos. Taliban came in imposed order, very strict
[2:40] Speaker 2: through Islamic three, you know, formed their own courts.
[2:44] Speaker 1: And everything, their warlord style, warlard style.
[2:47] Speaker 2: Some of these strong men came out and took control
[2:50] Speaker 2: out of Kandahar, took control of most of Afghanistan, and
[2:53] Speaker 2: our Pastun's a very dominant tribe in the south, eventually
[2:56] Speaker 2: al Qaeda, because they were being hunted by the US
[2:59] Speaker 2: and we're looking for a place to house themselves. We
[3:03] Speaker 2: did go to Afghanistan and Bin Larten had fought there
[3:06] Speaker 2: as well. He'd fought the Soviets in Afghanistan, so he
[3:08] Speaker 2: was able to form our Kaida in the mountains, train
[3:11] Speaker 2: them up, based it as a logistics era, and then
[3:14] Speaker 2: we went and invaded him. We dealt with our Kita
[3:16] Speaker 2: quite quickly, you know, the Americans surround them and sorted
[3:20] Speaker 2: the mountain, ejected him from the country within the first
[3:22] Speaker 2: six months. And then the war kind of transitioned into
[3:25] Speaker 2: a war against the Taliban.
[3:28] Speaker 1: And what was Australia's role and your role?
[3:30] Speaker 2: And we so we had I know, an Essays squadron
[3:33] Speaker 2: went in two thousand and one straight away, so about
[3:35] Speaker 2: ninety one hundred guys and we were supporting the Americans
[3:38] Speaker 2: with the reconnaissance work. And when eventually we went back,
[3:43] Speaker 2: which was two thousand and five, John Howard committed us.
[3:46] Speaker 2: We sent sas squadrons into Orosgaran Province, which is in
[3:50] Speaker 2: the south, and we were kind of the same as
[3:52] Speaker 2: in Vienna. We had an area that we were responsible
[3:55] Speaker 2: for securing and we worked with coalition to target enemy leaders,
[4:00] Speaker 2: do recon areas that we hadn't seen in years, and
[4:03] Speaker 2: we go out into parts of Afghanistan no one wanted
[4:06] Speaker 2: to go to and why wouldn't go there because it's
[4:10] Speaker 2: such a hard like it's hard to believe that a
[4:13] Speaker 2: modern army couldn't impose its control over a country. But
[4:16] Speaker 2: when you see it, like the mounds and the ravines
[4:19] Speaker 2: and the way the tribes set up, you can't really
[4:22] Speaker 2: get in there. That's why they've existed as tribes as
[4:25] Speaker 2: they have for thousands of is hard to get in
[4:27] Speaker 2: and out of the valleys.
[4:28] Speaker 1: But logistically, like in a physical sense.
[4:32] Speaker 2: In a physical sense, yeah, just even just driving in there,
[4:35] Speaker 2: you'd have to you're susceptible to ambush because there's only
[4:37] Speaker 2: one rode in and one rode out. So and there
[4:40] Speaker 2: weren't a lot of helicopters in the early days, and
[4:42] Speaker 2: then by as the years went by, more and more
[4:45] Speaker 2: came out of Iraq, which they were trying to win,
[4:48] Speaker 2: and went into Afghanistan, which they then tried to stabilize.
[4:51] Speaker 2: It was kind of we're fighting in two front war
[4:53] Speaker 2: the whole time.
[4:54] Speaker 1: And what is it? What is an essays soldier, like,
[4:57] Speaker 1: in particular, what would you be doing like surveillance? What
[5:00] Speaker 1: does that mean?
[5:01] Speaker 2: So we would. So I'll give you an example. When
[5:05] Speaker 2: I first I did a trip in two thousand and seven,
[5:07] Speaker 2: I was a true commander, which is about thirty guys.
[5:10] Speaker 2: We landed in the main base which is called Taran Cow.
[5:13] Speaker 2: We landed there, Me and my boss were looking at
[5:15] Speaker 2: how we're going to support the operations that were happening
[5:17] Speaker 2: that year, and he goes, look, we're going to have
[5:20] Speaker 2: to take back this valley in the north. It's called
[5:22] Speaker 2: Tauer it's thirty k's away. We've had a lot of
[5:26] Speaker 2: trouble trying to get it back. It's important. Taliban had
[5:28] Speaker 2: been there for ages. Let's go secure it. And our
[5:32] Speaker 2: role was to go in, find out exactly where all
[5:34] Speaker 2: the enemy were in that area, try and find out
[5:36] Speaker 2: that heavy weapons. We're going to land helicopters in there,
[5:39] Speaker 2: so I want to make sure they didn't have all
[5:40] Speaker 2: these heavy machine guns that could shoot them down. So
[5:43] Speaker 2: we'd be out there on foot at night looking for
[5:46] Speaker 2: enemy positions and watching them during the day and just
[5:49] Speaker 2: building a picture of what was in that valley.
[5:51] Speaker 1: They're taking notes, drawing stuff.
[5:53] Speaker 2: Drawing stuff. One of the guys I worked with got
[5:57] Speaker 2: into an enemy pit at night and measured the thing
[6:00] Speaker 2: out and was.
[6:02] Speaker 1: The enemy there.
[6:02] Speaker 2: They were around the area, but they weren't in that pit.
[6:05] Speaker 2: But and we gave the intelligence back to the Brits
[6:08] Speaker 2: and they said, well, they looked at the drawing of
[6:10] Speaker 2: the pit and they said to your guys are either
[6:12] Speaker 2: lying or they're mad, like they get this intelligence. But yeah,
[6:16] Speaker 2: it was old fashioned, going behind EMIL lines and getting
[6:18] Speaker 2: in from at nighttime at nighttime. We do it during
[6:21] Speaker 2: the day too, but during the day you might sit
[6:23] Speaker 2: back and sit on a hell and watch. You know,
[6:25] Speaker 2: you might see enemy moving around during the day and
[6:27] Speaker 2: then at night you go on look at that area.
[6:29] Speaker 1: But obviously under the cover of darkness. Is why are
[6:33] Speaker 1: you going to nighttime? So you're not going to be detected.
[6:36] Speaker 1: But surely they'd be expecting you to do that anyway,
[6:39] Speaker 1: I mean.
[6:40] Speaker 2: They did, they did. The problem is because our teams
[6:43] Speaker 2: were small, we moved at night, and we had that
[6:46] Speaker 2: cover of darkness. It's very hard to go up against
[6:49] Speaker 2: those teams at night because you can't you can't sneak
[6:52] Speaker 2: up on them. Theyre going to see you coming.
[6:53] Speaker 1: Yeah, totally. So what's going through your head when that's happening,
[6:57] Speaker 1: like or are you sitting back in the command part?
[7:00] Speaker 2: Well, I did a bit of both, so I was
[7:02] Speaker 2: leading the mission, but a couple times I'd attached myself
[7:04] Speaker 2: to a team and go in with a team. And
[7:06] Speaker 2: it's a weird thing because all of our training centers
[7:09] Speaker 2: around the basics of moving in country and not being
[7:13] Speaker 2: seen in country, being in a theater like a could
[7:17] Speaker 2: be jungle bush in bush, whatever it is, but not
[7:20] Speaker 2: in desert in desert as well. But obviously obviously it's
[7:25] Speaker 2: a bit harder. But yeah, once you're in vegetation though,
[7:28] Speaker 2: and there's a bit of cover and you can move
[7:30] Speaker 2: around and not be seen.
[7:31] Speaker 1: You're basically crawling around in your belly sort of thing.
[7:33] Speaker 2: Not really, but you because you know, because you've done
[7:36] Speaker 2: so much training it. You know, if you're moving at
[7:37] Speaker 2: night then there's a bit of moonlight, you stay in
[7:39] Speaker 2: the shadows and you don't move fast, and you don't
[7:42] Speaker 2: make noise, and you traverse through certain areas to try
[7:46] Speaker 2: and mask noise, like if it's raining, you might move
[7:49] Speaker 2: a bit quicker. So you just learn all these things
[7:51] Speaker 2: from experience and means you can move around the enemy.
[7:55] Speaker 1: Do you ever have a fitbidder on something to bridge
[7:58] Speaker 1: a heart rate?
[7:58] Speaker 2: No? But I think that now I reckon, do they
[8:01] Speaker 2: really wind? Would be right up there?
[8:03] Speaker 1: Well, it's your heart rate going that or you learn
[8:05] Speaker 1: how to sort of control it.
[8:06] Speaker 2: No, you learn how to control it because you're always
[8:09] Speaker 2: put in these highly stressful situation and just learn to
[8:12] Speaker 2: like get that breathing to kind of calm yourself down
[8:14] Speaker 2: a bit.
[8:16] Speaker 1: Do you worry about losing your life or is it
[8:19] Speaker 1: so hectic that you don't have time to worry? About that,
[8:21] Speaker 1: you're just always on alert.
[8:23] Speaker 2: I think no, everyone does at some point, and I did,
[8:26] Speaker 2: especially when I was younger and new to it. I
[8:28] Speaker 2: was quite like, you're trained to deal with it, but
[8:31] Speaker 2: that thought does cross your mind. But I think once
[8:33] Speaker 2: you start moving and taking action kind of all that
[8:36] Speaker 2: fear goes away quite a bit. And it's like a
[8:39] Speaker 2: waiting for a school yard fight. Waiting for it's always worse.
[8:43] Speaker 1: Than getting into it.
[8:44] Speaker 2: When it actually happens, your ey, it's not so bad.
[8:46] Speaker 1: You know, Yes, I got a broken nose, It's exactly so.
[8:50] Speaker 1: And in terms of that period that we're talking about,
[8:54] Speaker 1: the early two thousands, was tech a big deal? Technology?
[8:58] Speaker 1: Big deal?
[8:59] Speaker 2: Yeah, it was a big deal. Ill it was, and
[9:01] Speaker 2: what But what's surprising about the campaign is that every
[9:06] Speaker 2: time we go into battle, there's some new tech, some
[9:09] Speaker 2: new amazing tech, and they go, this is going to
[9:10] Speaker 2: change warfare, and it never does. Really well, it does
[9:14] Speaker 2: to some extent, but it's always just it's an incremental
[9:17] Speaker 2: adaptation to the battlefield. It's not like a revolution the
[9:21] Speaker 2: way maybe gunpowder was or information warfare was like these
[9:27] Speaker 2: new drones and that I know, it looks interesting and exciting,
[9:29] Speaker 2: but really it's an adaptation of stuff we've always had.
[9:33] Speaker 1: So because I was going to ask about the drones,
[9:36] Speaker 1: We'll get onto the jet political stuff in a second too,
[9:39] Speaker 1: because that's really interesting to me. But if I just
[9:42] Speaker 1: talk about the drone tech instead of sending someone in
[9:46] Speaker 1: to draw pictures and you know, like to do the reconnaissance,
[9:50] Speaker 1: wouldn't be just easy to send it, can you? I
[9:52] Speaker 1: don't know if there's such a thing but a cent
[9:53] Speaker 1: a drone and that it doesn't make that worrying noise
[9:55] Speaker 1: and actually for it to take photographs from the sky.
[9:59] Speaker 2: Yeah, well they've got I mean, we have. There's so
[10:02] Speaker 2: many different layers of what they what they have in
[10:05] Speaker 2: terms of drones, all the way from the strategic ones
[10:08] Speaker 2: that are in the bloody stratosphy all the way down
[10:10] Speaker 2: to the tiny ones you can send in a house.
[10:12] Speaker 2: But they're all complimentary to people.
[10:15] Speaker 1: Because someone's got to control it.
[10:16] Speaker 2: So generally someone's got to control it, or you need
[10:20] Speaker 2: someone on the ground that can actually direct the effects,
[10:24] Speaker 2: you know what I mean. We're not at that point
[10:25] Speaker 2: where machines can do that alone. And so it's like
[10:29] Speaker 2: what you're seeing now in Iran. There are limits to
[10:32] Speaker 2: what air power can do, and they've tried this before.
[10:36] Speaker 2: It's it's how you do need people on the ground
[10:38] Speaker 2: to shape the outcomes that happen.
[10:40] Speaker 1: For sure, because I saw something interesting. I don't know
[10:43] Speaker 1: it was ullshit or not, but I saw something on
[10:45] Speaker 1: them as embarrasses on social media where the Chinese Chinese
[10:52] Speaker 1: were demonstrating robots to a foreign minister from one another country.
[11:01] Speaker 1: It wasn't the US, and it wasn't Australia, and it
[11:05] Speaker 1: could have been AI produced. I don't know the sis,
[11:07] Speaker 1: and you've probably got a better much but you've definitely
[11:09] Speaker 1: got a much better idea of me. But these these robots,
[11:13] Speaker 1: we're doing kung fu or something like kung fu, and
[11:16] Speaker 1: they were moving like a person. Now, I don't know
[11:20] Speaker 1: how long they could go for. Maybe they're going to
[11:22] Speaker 1: have battery limits and all that sort of stuff. I
[11:23] Speaker 1: don't know the answer to those questions, and maybe they
[11:26] Speaker 1: just can only do one thing. But are we ad
[11:29] Speaker 1: a stage, as some are, we're getting close to when
[11:33] Speaker 1: sovereign nations will start to have this type of technology
[11:35] Speaker 1: instead of sending an sas soldier in, but they might
[11:38] Speaker 1: send one in and ten robots.
[11:40] Speaker 2: Yeah, I think robotics will be could be that game changer.
[11:45] Speaker 2: I know their countries are throwing a lot out and
[11:47] Speaker 2: making sure we have these autonomous partners that we can
[11:51] Speaker 2: go into battle with, because when you think about how
[11:54] Speaker 2: complimentary that is to people. Whenever get tired, they can
[11:56] Speaker 2: carry out a bat or they don't get afraid. There's
[11:59] Speaker 2: limits what they can do, of course, but over time
[12:02] Speaker 2: they'll just get better and better, and even the early
[12:04] Speaker 2: ones are looking pretty good now. I know there was
[12:06] Speaker 2: a rescue of the Ukrainian soldier using a remote drone
[12:11] Speaker 2: that was able to drive thirty klimbers out to pick
[12:14] Speaker 2: this guy up, put him in there and he had
[12:16] Speaker 2: an armored cage and they drove him back out again. Wow,
[12:18] Speaker 2: he was getting attacked by drones. And so there's a
[12:21] Speaker 2: place for him in the battlefield. There's all these things
[12:24] Speaker 2: that you have to do in battle, like move casualties out,
[12:26] Speaker 2: get AMMO forward, clear houses. All these things can be
[12:31] Speaker 2: done by robots for sure.
[12:32] Speaker 1: And the robots don't have to look like human. I mean,
[12:34] Speaker 1: you don't have to be like a drone. Yeah, drone
[12:38] Speaker 1: is sort of like a robot is a robot. It's
[12:40] Speaker 1: based on robotics and you know, and cameras and stuff
[12:44] Speaker 1: like that, but it's based on robotics, and cameras are
[12:46] Speaker 1: just a set of eyes, but just a bit of
[12:48] Speaker 1: a mechanical version. Are you in your intense interest in warfare,
[12:54] Speaker 1: which it is fair to say and particular and so
[12:57] Speaker 1: also your intense interest in political environments? Do you think
[13:02] Speaker 1: is there anyone more advanced in the world on this
[13:05] Speaker 1: stage relative to robotics than anyone else, Like, I mean,
[13:10] Speaker 1: I'm sure Australia is way behind, but anyone out there
[13:13] Speaker 1: is outstanding, do you hear?
[13:14] Speaker 2: I think the Yanks have a lot of capabilities that
[13:17] Speaker 2: are really far far advanced, and it's some things are
[13:23] Speaker 2: even difficult to can septualize now, like if you go
[13:26] Speaker 2: back to the nineteen sixties, for example, and look at
[13:28] Speaker 2: the Blackbird, for example, the spy plane they created. This
[13:32] Speaker 2: looks like a space age weapon even now. So I
[13:35] Speaker 2: know they've built stuff recently in aerospace and probably in
[13:38] Speaker 2: the robotics that is super advanced, and they keep it
[13:42] Speaker 2: in the locker in case there's some major conflict. So
[13:44] Speaker 2: I think the Americans will have a huge interest in
[13:48] Speaker 2: and they'll have massive capabilities, and then all the other
[13:51] Speaker 2: nations will be playing cash up. They you know, trying
[13:54] Speaker 2: to and rush all out of adversaries, are trying to
[13:56] Speaker 2: get that information wherever they can to find out what
[13:58] Speaker 2: the direction we're going in to exploit it or get
[14:01] Speaker 2: samples or whatever they can.
[14:03] Speaker 1: It's all fair game because the constant promotion we get
[14:06] Speaker 1: is China has actually got better technology than everybody else,
[14:11] Speaker 1: just that they're not showing anybody. Do you think that's
[14:13] Speaker 1: a possibility.
[14:14] Speaker 2: I think that made big advances in sensitive parts of
[14:18] Speaker 2: warfare that have worried the Americans, like hypersonics, what typeersonics?
[14:24] Speaker 2: Hypersonics super fast moving missiles for example, So I think
[14:28] Speaker 2: it's more than five times a speed of sound is
[14:29] Speaker 2: hype wow, like really fast because they're hard to defend against.
[14:34] Speaker 2: So I know some of the the carrier killer missiles
[14:37] Speaker 2: that've developed.
[14:38] Speaker 1: Sorry, what's a carry a killer missile?
[14:40] Speaker 2: An aircraft carry The Chinese have developed some super heavy
[14:44] Speaker 2: ballistic missiles that can go on the atmosphere and then
[14:48] Speaker 2: strike a moving American carry out because they're moving so fast,
[14:51] Speaker 2: so fast.
[14:52] Speaker 1: Yeah, and also obviously they must be using some sort
[14:55] Speaker 1: of satellite technology to satellite tracking to direct it where
[15:00] Speaker 1: it's going to go. I'm going to someone like what
[15:03] Speaker 1: scares you most right now?
[15:05] Speaker 2: I think the one. I mean, there's that which is
[15:07] Speaker 2: a bit of a black swan, you know, American carry
[15:11] Speaker 2: gets sunk. That means that's a pretty substantial, pretty substantial
[15:16] Speaker 2: thing that would create a much broader war because I
[15:20] Speaker 2: don't think they could. For example, Iran could do that
[15:22] Speaker 2: without support from China or Russia. I don't think they could.
[15:26] Speaker 2: So that's one and the other one is I think
[15:30] Speaker 2: the thing that keeps the three major powers from going
[15:32] Speaker 2: to war is they've all got nuclear weapons. So in
[15:36] Speaker 2: a way that kind of World War two, all the
[15:38] Speaker 2: major powers did end up fighting a total war. Sometimes
[15:42] Speaker 2: I think that probably is less likely now because it
[15:46] Speaker 2: would lead to an escalation that could you could destroy
[15:49] Speaker 2: the world. So I think that I think that stops
[15:51] Speaker 2: them from entering into full combat.
[15:54] Speaker 1: And therefore less on that basis, let's just look at it.
[15:58] Speaker 1: What's going on at the moment with Iran, is that
[16:03] Speaker 1: does that that actual point legitimize why Israel and the
[16:10] Speaker 1: United States have sort of gone it's called gone to
[16:14] Speaker 1: war with Iran because you don't need a fourth power
[16:17] Speaker 1: of this nuclear ability.
[16:19] Speaker 2: Yeah, if Iran did secure the bomb, it would precipitate
[16:26] Speaker 2: an arms race in that region. I think Saudi Arabia said,
[16:28] Speaker 2: if Iran get it, we will have a bomb straight away.
[16:31] Speaker 2: So it would have been a much broader proliferation of
[16:35] Speaker 2: nukes which the Americans were trying to stop. And then
[16:37] Speaker 2: Israel would have been potentially, you know, under threat straight
[16:41] Speaker 2: away because they're a small nation and pretty if if
[16:45] Speaker 2: they were targeted with a new Cole weapon, you probably
[16:46] Speaker 2: that'd be the end of them. So I know the
[16:49] Speaker 2: Americans has said it's a red line, you can't have
[16:52] Speaker 2: a bomb, and that's what the negotiations were. Either. It's like,
[16:55] Speaker 2: we don't want you enriching uranium, will give you what
[16:59] Speaker 2: you need, We just need you to not pursue the bomb.
[17:02] Speaker 2: And they could never get that assurance, and with good
[17:05] Speaker 2: reason too if you look at it from Aram's perspective,
[17:07] Speaker 2: the minute you give up that capability, there is a
[17:10] Speaker 2: chance that your country can be hit. And that happens
[17:14] Speaker 2: to Libya when they surrendered their WMDs, and it happened.
[17:17] Speaker 1: To a mass destruction weapons of mass destruction.
[17:20] Speaker 2: They surrendered there. I think they had a new Colear
[17:22] Speaker 2: program a while back, and the Americans were able to
[17:26] Speaker 2: stop that. And also Iraq they because they didn't have
[17:32] Speaker 2: WMD's in the end, they weren't able to defend themselves.
[17:35] Speaker 2: So it's kind of this chicken and egg issue. But
[17:39] Speaker 2: North Korea, for example, that did get new core weapons,
[17:42] Speaker 2: they're not going to get invaded by the Americans anytime soon,
[17:44] Speaker 2: so it is a security guarantee they wanted clearly, but
[17:48] Speaker 2: Americans wouldn't let him have it.
[17:49] Speaker 1: And it's interesting because Israel has nuclear power, yes weapons,
[17:54] Speaker 1: I should say, yeah, it's interesting if well, if you're
[18:01] Speaker 1: if you get if you allow someone to develop nuclear
[18:05] Speaker 1: power and nuclear weapons, I should say, to some extent,
[18:10] Speaker 1: it's likely they won't use it because that gives the
[18:13] Speaker 1: opposition a reason to use nuclear power back a nuclear
[18:17] Speaker 1: weapon back or and maybe that's the way to go.
[18:22] Speaker 1: Or is it better that you don't give them the
[18:26] Speaker 1: opportunity to have nuclear weapons at all? I mean, which
[18:30] Speaker 1: means they will never be a really really will be
[18:34] Speaker 1: a threat to anybody. How do you look at it
[18:36] Speaker 1: as a it's.
[18:37] Speaker 2: A bit of a double standard because we've all these
[18:40] Speaker 2: major powers of developed nucle wesens saying that's it. No
[18:43] Speaker 2: one else can do this, But there is a good
[18:46] Speaker 2: reason for it because when they when they do it,
[18:48] Speaker 2: all the other adversaries are going to follow suit, and
[18:50] Speaker 2: then we'll have so many weapons on the planet.
[18:52] Speaker 1: Everyone will have them.
[18:53] Speaker 2: Everyone will have them. Your chance of mistake is much higher.
[18:57] Speaker 2: So that's why they try and stop it from proliferic.
[19:00] Speaker 1: Are more about mistakes. I mark like because it's interesting
[19:02] Speaker 1: you should say that, because I would just imagine just
[19:06] Speaker 1: following through what you just said. So let's say Iran
[19:08] Speaker 1: got it, you know, for the reason they all decided
[19:11] Speaker 1: to Look, let's let them do it, and then you
[19:13] Speaker 1: just said, Saudi would say, if you've got it, we
[19:15] Speaker 1: want it for whatever reason. Then Saudi has it. Then
[19:18] Speaker 1: let's say just cascades through the whole region. The issue is, okay,
[19:22] Speaker 1: if everyone in the reagions got it, then to no
[19:24] Speaker 1: one's going to press the button. But if if it's
[19:29] Speaker 1: the mistake that you just mentioned, let's explore that a
[19:33] Speaker 1: little bit. What is what do you mean by the mistake?
[19:37] Speaker 2: First, Well, there's been a lot of cases in the
[19:40] Speaker 2: past where sensor systems from say the Americans or the
[19:45] Speaker 2: Russians have picked up signals that look like ballistic missiles
[19:49] Speaker 2: had been fired at them. I think there was an
[19:51] Speaker 2: example in the eighties where there was a someone will
[19:55] Speaker 2: crack me forget this wrong, but they basically detected I
[19:57] Speaker 2: think it was three or five ICBM being launched the
[20:02] Speaker 2: in They picked up that some had been launched from
[20:06] Speaker 2: the US over Alaska towards Russia, and the Russian based
[20:10] Speaker 2: commander that had picked up this signal just thought it
[20:12] Speaker 2: was odd. He goes, if it really is an attack,
[20:15] Speaker 2: why is there only three to five? They didn't fire
[20:18] Speaker 2: back even though they were meant to. They found out
[20:20] Speaker 2: later that was it was either a flock of geese
[20:24] Speaker 2: or some I think once there was a rising moon
[20:27] Speaker 2: that reflected radio signals back, but it was a mistaken
[20:30] Speaker 2: case of a system that was meant to pick.
[20:32] Speaker 1: Up a launch missing tensity detection. Yeah, detection as opposed
[20:36] Speaker 1: to a mistake in terms of actually pressing the buttons section.
[20:38] Speaker 2: Yeah, And there's been other cases where we missed it.
[20:40] Speaker 2: I know that there was Soviet subs that were armed
[20:43] Speaker 2: with nuclear torpedoes in the Cuban Missile crisis in the sixties,
[20:48] Speaker 2: and they were told to use them if they were
[20:50] Speaker 2: threatened or if the blockade was run or anything like that.
[20:53] Speaker 2: And I think the local command of the actual sub
[20:56] Speaker 2: commander XO refused to use these. So if the more
[21:01] Speaker 2: there are, the more chances there is a major accident.
[21:04] Speaker 1: So it's not like, let's call it Trump making an error,
[21:10] Speaker 1: saying accidentally pressing the button.
[21:12] Speaker 2: Well, it's it's a bizarre one because there's no The
[21:14] Speaker 2: chain of command for the use of nickel weapons is
[21:18] Speaker 2: one person in the US system. It's literally the.
[21:21] Speaker 1: President, Yeah, the commander in chief, and all.
[21:24] Speaker 2: Orders from the president then are followed. But there's no
[21:28] Speaker 2: he doesn't have to consult anyone to do it. It
[21:30] Speaker 2: is a pretty crazy system.
[21:31] Speaker 1: But he has to tell someone. He's not the guy
[21:33] Speaker 1: actually sets it off. He has to tell someone to
[21:35] Speaker 1: do it.
[21:36] Speaker 2: He can authorize the launch of nickel weapons from this
[21:41] Speaker 2: case that's carried around has never further than ten free
[21:43] Speaker 2: from him. There is, yeah, and this is there's a
[21:47] Speaker 2: book about this called I Think It's Nuclear War Scenario
[21:51] Speaker 2: by Annie Jacobson, And there's been a lot of research
[21:55] Speaker 2: that's normally classified that's been declassified but talks about American
[22:00] Speaker 2: nuclear weapon strategy and how that deploy it. And you
[22:02] Speaker 2: can imagine it's pretty closely closely held stuff. But yeah,
[22:06] Speaker 2: that he has a there's an there's a tache that
[22:09] Speaker 2: walks with him that has a case which is called
[22:11] Speaker 2: the football that's got all the targeting material and radio
[22:16] Speaker 2: systems needed to initiate a nuclear launch, and that's never
[22:20] Speaker 2: separated from the president.
[22:21] Speaker 1: Surely someone Yeah, I'm getting nervous, but surely someone's on
[22:25] Speaker 1: on the other side. Yes, mister president leak, is that
[22:28] Speaker 1: a good idea? I'll launch this stuff, but you really
[22:31] Speaker 1: want it? There's no double checking system there.
[22:34] Speaker 2: There would be obviously as his advisors, but the actual
[22:40] Speaker 2: chain of command for authorizing it is literally from the
[22:42] Speaker 2: president to the to the missile systems.
[22:44] Speaker 1: So, yeah, you're a as a former army person, like
[22:49] Speaker 1: do you take if your orders are given, whether you
[22:53] Speaker 1: agree with the orders or disagree with the orders. Do
[22:55] Speaker 1: you just have to do it?
[22:56] Speaker 2: Like?
[22:57] Speaker 1: How does it work?
[22:57] Speaker 2: Like you don't have to follow unlawful order? Right, so
[23:01] Speaker 2: you get trained in the laws of war and if
[23:04] Speaker 2: if it's an unlawful order, you don't have to follow it.
[23:06] Speaker 2: So if someone says, you know, blow that school up
[23:08] Speaker 2: and it's not a legitimate target and it's not allowed,
[23:13] Speaker 2: you can say no. That's how it works in theory,
[23:17] Speaker 2: but in practice, it's not always as easy as that.
[23:19] Speaker 1: So what would happen if your commanding officers said to you, look,
[23:23] Speaker 1: we want to blow up that shopping center or something
[23:26] Speaker 1: like that, you know, and hit it with a berzerk
[23:29] Speaker 1: or whatever the sort of weapon you're going to use,
[23:32] Speaker 1: and you have to make the call as to whether
[23:35] Speaker 1: or not that's a legitimate target.
[23:36] Speaker 2: It's even there are there's rules about chaining command, but
[23:40] Speaker 2: it's still a human system. Like if you don't think
[23:42] Speaker 2: something's right, you can still challenge.
[23:45] Speaker 1: You can you can challenge whatever your commanding officer says, Hey,
[23:48] Speaker 1: Mark me mate, what would want to call your mark?
[23:50] Speaker 1: You will probably call you whatever you know you're supposed
[23:53] Speaker 1: to be called by. Do what you're told. Yeah, otherwise
[23:56] Speaker 1: you're in trouble.
[23:57] Speaker 2: I'll be okay. And then you'd hit it that's five
[24:00] Speaker 2: and meres to the north of it and say they missed.
[24:02] Speaker 2: He missed. Yeah. People figure out a way to kind
[24:06] Speaker 2: of not do it, not do it. Yeah.
[24:08] Speaker 1: But then the commander comes back and he says, we'll
[24:11] Speaker 1: have another crack. I mean, do I can you do
[24:14] Speaker 1: you get a chance I argue the toss?
[24:16] Speaker 2: Yeah?
[24:17] Speaker 1: Do you think that would be the case? In terms
[24:19] Speaker 1: of the US for example, or Russia for the example,
[24:21] Speaker 1: China for.
[24:22] Speaker 2: I know that I know they debated this, this Iran
[24:24] Speaker 2: mission heavily before they went in there, and I know
[24:27] Speaker 2: there were a couple of camps. One that was kind
[24:29] Speaker 2: of pro targeting Iran and another was against it. And
[24:33] Speaker 2: I think the Vice president was actually against it.
[24:37] Speaker 1: Jadie Vance j Advance.
[24:39] Speaker 2: Yeah. And I don't know too much about the MAC
[24:40] Speaker 2: and like how it all works, but they would have
[24:44] Speaker 2: had strong competing arguments about fore and against views of
[24:49] Speaker 2: actually doing this. I've talked about it for years.
[24:51] Speaker 1: That would that get brought to the president to attack Iran?
[24:55] Speaker 1: Or does that is a president is a sort of
[24:57] Speaker 1: top down and he says this d yeah, which way Trump?
[25:03] Speaker 2: Nothing would have happened if the President didn't I didn't
[25:06] Speaker 2: want that.
[25:07] Speaker 1: Didn't agree, or didn't want it to happen. So do
[25:09] Speaker 1: you think he sort of pushes for it? Did he
[25:11] Speaker 1: speak to Netnahu and say, well, may we're together and
[25:14] Speaker 1: we're going to do it. I'm going to till my
[25:16] Speaker 1: generals to do it. Or is it the generals from
[25:17] Speaker 1: both sides get together and say, listen, mister promister, mister
[25:21] Speaker 1: President Trump this is what we think needs to happen.
[25:24] Speaker 1: How's it? What's the process?
[25:26] Speaker 2: They would have been. They've talked about this for decades,
[25:28] Speaker 2: about a mission to go and attack Iran, So all
[25:31] Speaker 2: the militaries would have talked about this and planned for it.
[25:34] Speaker 2: And I know I had mates that I was in
[25:36] Speaker 2: business school with that had planned for these missions to
[25:39] Speaker 2: go and capture the enrichment sites. Really those Yeah, One
[25:44] Speaker 2: of my mates was was a pilot with the Special
[25:46] Speaker 2: Ops aviation unit there, the one sixtieth and he was
[25:50] Speaker 2: a black Hawk and a little Bird, part of the helicopters,
[25:53] Speaker 2: and he was combat pilot, combat pilot, and he goes, mate,
[25:56] Speaker 2: we had plans and this was a one way mission.
[26:00] Speaker 2: We get in there, we try and secure these sites,
[26:02] Speaker 2: and there was really no way for us to get out.
[26:03] Speaker 1: It was just how have we may not come back?
[26:06] Speaker 2: And I thought, I thought there was no way the
[26:08] Speaker 2: Americans would do it because it's such a big This
[26:12] Speaker 2: is different to Iraq. Again, it's a much bigger country,
[26:16] Speaker 2: huge simulation, it's huge population, it's much bigger, ninety million people,
[26:19] Speaker 2: a million, the standing security forces is around a million people.
[26:25] Speaker 2: It's a much bigger problem. So I didn't think they'd
[26:28] Speaker 2: do it, and I don't think it would have happened
[26:30] Speaker 2: unless that it would have been driven by the political
[26:33] Speaker 2: leaders for sure.
[26:34] Speaker 1: But is it would be fair to say that from
[26:39] Speaker 1: top down it's a decision that gets made based on logic.
[26:44] Speaker 1: I mean, do we sit down, Do they sit down
[26:46] Speaker 1: and say, Okay, we've been working on this for a
[26:49] Speaker 1: long time, just in case we're ever going to do it,
[26:52] Speaker 1: but here's here's the logic and the let's call it
[26:55] Speaker 1: the ethics around all this is just why we should
[26:57] Speaker 1: do this, as opposed to what we just hear the
[26:59] Speaker 1: present and say, because he's not going to tell us
[27:01] Speaker 1: all the details, you're going to say, we've been looking
[27:02] Speaker 1: at this for fifteen years or something for obvious reasons.
[27:06] Speaker 1: But these guys and girls have been working on us
[27:09] Speaker 1: for a long time. Do they look at do they
[27:12] Speaker 1: debate to get to debate the ethics of this stuff,
[27:14] Speaker 1: because everyone's sort of saying, oh, we're just doing what
[27:16] Speaker 1: us doing what Israel told us to do it. I mean,
[27:18] Speaker 1: I just can't cop.
[27:19] Speaker 2: That like they would debate the ethics. But being in
[27:22] Speaker 2: a military system, it's like once it's decided and that's
[27:26] Speaker 2: that's what you're going to be doing. So if you
[27:29] Speaker 2: don't agree with the ethics, it's not a case of
[27:31] Speaker 2: further to pay it. You kind of have to get
[27:32] Speaker 2: out of the way or leave.
[27:34] Speaker 1: Or leave you have an opportunity you can do you
[27:37] Speaker 1: just say, look, I don't feel right about it.
[27:38] Speaker 2: Participate in it, for sure. But it's one of those things,
[27:41] Speaker 2: like a fast moving train. Once you're on board it,
[27:43] Speaker 2: it's very hard to kind of get off once these
[27:46] Speaker 2: things are moving. I could see because they were saying
[27:49] Speaker 2: to Rhyme with his negotiations, like this is what we need,
[27:53] Speaker 2: and they they weren't able to get those responses they wanted,
[27:56] Speaker 2: and they warned like we're going to hit you if
[27:58] Speaker 2: you don't do it.
[28:00] Speaker 1: But what did you think we saw the US Navy,
[28:02] Speaker 1: I mean something like you and you know every day.
[28:05] Speaker 1: I mean, I'm too busy with my job. I'm not.
[28:07] Speaker 1: This is not my territories on my theater. But you know,
[28:11] Speaker 1: I thought to myself, I should have seen it coming
[28:13] Speaker 1: when I saw there were so many ships deployed to
[28:16] Speaker 1: the you know, to the Gulf there. Yeah, with suddenly
[28:19] Speaker 1: you think yourself, this is going to be it's inevitable.
[28:22] Speaker 2: Well, I made it the point. I made a video
[28:23] Speaker 2: about this. I was like, a day before they hit,
[28:26] Speaker 2: I said that you can't as a political leader, put
[28:29] Speaker 2: that much military pressure on someone and mass that much
[28:35] Speaker 2: force and then not use it because it's a big
[28:37] Speaker 2: blow to your credibility internationally and also from your own
[28:42] Speaker 2: military as well. There's a big bluff, isn't it. It's
[28:44] Speaker 2: just a big bluff. So he wasn't bluffing. That was
[28:47] Speaker 2: the point. And Putin did the same thing. Yeah, massed
[28:50] Speaker 2: all these forces and then once you start seeing these
[28:53] Speaker 2: unusual things in that force, you kind of know something's coming.
[28:56] Speaker 2: Like once I heard Putin had bakeryes and mortuaries and
[29:02] Speaker 2: blood banks.
[29:04] Speaker 1: Say bakeries, bakeries those in bread.
[29:06] Speaker 2: Bread bake yet all the all the stuff you need
[29:09] Speaker 2: for an extended invasion. I was like, they're actually going
[29:12] Speaker 2: to do this. You don't get that stuff in when
[29:14] Speaker 2: it's a when it's an exercise, that's a real they're
[29:18] Speaker 2: planning to.
[29:19] Speaker 1: It's different because you know at one stage a little
[29:21] Speaker 1: why we're just posturing. You know the art of the deal. Yeah,
[29:24] Speaker 1: you know I'm gonna I'm going to crush you unless
[29:27] Speaker 1: you do the deal that I want you to deal.
[29:29] Speaker 1: Do you know, typical posturing, which, by the way, Trump's brilliant.
[29:34] Speaker 1: He used posturing all the time. He does it with tariffs,
[29:37] Speaker 1: all sorts of things, threats of tariffs. I should say,
[29:41] Speaker 1: you saw it, Did you see it as much more
[29:42] Speaker 1: than posturing?
[29:44] Speaker 2: I thought he was. I thought he was being serious.
[29:46] Speaker 2: And the reason I thought it is because in the past,
[29:48] Speaker 2: when he said he's going to do something militarily, he
[29:51] Speaker 2: almost always followed through at some stage in his first term,
[29:55] Speaker 2: where you did with Syria when they use the chemical weapons,
[29:58] Speaker 2: you threaten them and then and then executed on it.
[30:02] Speaker 2: With Venezuela, was talking about that for a while. With
[30:04] Speaker 2: Iran the first time, he was telling them for a while,
[30:07] Speaker 2: if you don't you know, if you don't stop, We're
[30:09] Speaker 2: going to bomb your facilities. And so he'd done it
[30:13] Speaker 2: three times so that I could remember, and this was
[30:15] Speaker 2: the fourth.
[30:17] Speaker 1: So in terms of the so called Americans, so called
[30:26] Speaker 1: just doing Israel's bidding, you would reject that.
[30:33] Speaker 2: I think both things are true. It is it was
[30:36] Speaker 2: Israel's plan all along, and especially Naniahu. And people don't
[30:40] Speaker 2: realize this about ninia was his brother was killed in
[30:43] Speaker 2: the n TEB raid which happened in the seventies. They
[30:45] Speaker 2: were trying to recover Oh wow, Israeli hostages. His brother
[30:48] Speaker 2: was killed, he himself was wounded. He's a hardcore military
[30:54] Speaker 2: tree guy that understands that region and has had a
[30:57] Speaker 2: plan for a long time to just dismantle enemies. And
[31:00] Speaker 2: then the way I've seen this unfold, I think is
[31:04] Speaker 2: when they the har mass attack on Israel happened, they
[31:08] Speaker 2: use that as their opportunity to knock down these players,
[31:12] Speaker 2: the Hezwa Hamas and the Hoogis, and the final piece
[31:16] Speaker 2: of that puzzle is Iran.
[31:18] Speaker 1: But do you think that this war will finish in
[31:21] Speaker 1: this skirmish will finish in a two week period like
[31:25] Speaker 1: Trump or four period of Trump's talking.
[31:26] Speaker 2: About No, now that he started it, it's not up
[31:29] Speaker 2: to him when hostility cease.
[31:32] Speaker 1: What makes you think that like or is it just
[31:34] Speaker 1: your experience in war?
[31:36] Speaker 2: It's just the genie is out of the bottle. And
[31:40] Speaker 2: this happened in two thousand and three. They land and
[31:42] Speaker 2: said that's it. Missions accomplished, land on the aircraft carrier,
[31:46] Speaker 2: that's it. Major combat operations are over. We fought there
[31:50] Speaker 2: for another seven years, and the same thing will happen
[31:52] Speaker 2: in Iran.
[31:53] Speaker 1: I think maybe worse because Iran's is much better organized
[31:58] Speaker 1: than any of the any of the other countries in
[32:01] Speaker 1: the zone. I mean other than say Saudi or Israelid
[32:04] Speaker 1: like much better organized.
[32:06] Speaker 2: So it's like huge risk, potentially a huge reward. Like
[32:10] Speaker 2: if they do, they might find a way to subjugate
[32:13] Speaker 2: and come up with a sympathetic administration and all of
[32:16] Speaker 2: a sudden, you've got a more compliant kind of Iran,
[32:20] Speaker 2: and the Middle East could be secured for generations, or
[32:23] Speaker 2: it could descend into inter regional conflicts what you'll read.
[32:29] Speaker 2: I think it will descend into conflicts. I don't think
[32:31] Speaker 2: it will end the way they think it will.
[32:34] Speaker 1: Well, given the Trump and his administration keeps saying there's
[32:39] Speaker 1: not going to be any feet on the ground, so
[32:40] Speaker 1: in other words, are going to put troops in there.
[32:43] Speaker 1: Bombing it's one thing, and having control all the guys
[32:46] Speaker 1: is another thing. But these guys are probably burrowing underground,
[32:50] Speaker 1: and you would seem to meet logical. You've got somebody's
[32:53] Speaker 1: got to send some people in there to find someone.
[32:56] Speaker 2: You're off the slippery slope, you know. I think there's
[33:00] Speaker 2: there'll be that temptation and I just heard this anecdotally
[33:05] Speaker 2: and then I researched it quickly, and I think it's
[33:07] Speaker 2: the truth that they've canceled training and leave passes, or
[33:12] Speaker 2: at least training for the eighty second Airborne and one
[33:15] Speaker 2: hundred and first Airborne units in America, which are the
[33:17] Speaker 2: storied parachute units that landed behind enemy lines on D Day.
[33:21] Speaker 2: They're really famous units. There's a chance they could use
[33:24] Speaker 2: them to secure key infrastructure. That's like a bread and
[33:28] Speaker 2: butter kind of job for them.
[33:30] Speaker 1: But that's sort of what you participated in in Afgani
[33:34] Speaker 1: to stand in Iraq, like you put a.
[33:35] Speaker 2: Little bit that's it's more inventional role like parachuting into
[33:39] Speaker 2: enemy territory, you know, you know, securing a bridgehead or
[33:42] Speaker 2: whatever it is. That's they might try and do something
[33:45] Speaker 2: like that with the either the enrichment sites. This the
[33:49] Speaker 2: opening of the straight up hor moves. If they want
[33:52] Speaker 2: to reopen it, they might get troops into secure something
[33:56] Speaker 2: really strategically important. And once you do that, you then
[34:00] Speaker 2: opening more casualties and then you're really.
[34:02] Speaker 1: In the grind starts.
[34:04] Speaker 2: Then the grind starts, then you're in a war.
[34:06] Speaker 1: And so the the Iranian whatever consoles that I am
[34:10] Speaker 1: whatever it's called, I MPG, whatever they call themselves. The hardliners.
[34:16] Speaker 1: Would they be would you consider them to be well
[34:19] Speaker 1: trained soldiers? There's quite a few.
[34:22] Speaker 2: Yeah, And I know you spoke to I think it
[34:26] Speaker 2: was Mick Ryan, Yeah, so, and he was talking about
[34:29] Speaker 2: it when I was in Bagdad as well, in like
[34:32] Speaker 2: two thousand and six, two thousand and seven, and the
[34:35] Speaker 2: Urans had gotten in there and were supplying were they
[34:38] Speaker 2: They were supplying the militias with these really advanced shaped charges.
[34:42] Speaker 2: These are like they it's like a copper disc that
[34:46] Speaker 2: your house on the front of it explosive and when
[34:49] Speaker 2: when it's blown up, it turns into a molten slug
[34:52] Speaker 2: that moves it many times a speed of sound. Really
[34:54] Speaker 2: fast moving can penetrate armor. So tanks, any kind of
[35:00] Speaker 2: armor can go through quite a really And so the
[35:03] Speaker 2: Americans were getting hibit these, and they were going through
[35:06] Speaker 2: the serious armored vehicles like Bradley's and Humbies and all
[35:09] Speaker 2: that armored Humbies. A lot of Americans lost, you know,
[35:14] Speaker 2: double triple im amputations. Uranians really gave them hell. And
[35:20] Speaker 2: I think, I mean Trump's it's not a reason enough.
[35:24] Speaker 2: Once you're in a war like that, you kind of
[35:26] Speaker 2: fair game for the for the rest of the region.
[35:27] Speaker 2: But that's they certainly had a lot of blood on
[35:30] Speaker 2: their hands from from that. Were thousands of troops killed
[35:33] Speaker 2: and injured from that stuff.
[35:34] Speaker 1: What's your sense then, do you think that they will
[35:37] Speaker 1: deploy a first and eighty second or they won't, I mean,
[35:41] Speaker 1: or will they rewind they'll be attempted to.
[35:43] Speaker 2: I think as there be there'll be ground force operators
[35:46] Speaker 2: in there already. There'll be you know, CIA ground operations
[35:51] Speaker 2: linked up with more intelligence, well not necessarily that could
[35:54] Speaker 2: be organizing air strikes. There be, they'll have subterfusion, sabotage
[36:00] Speaker 2: and all sorts happening because they're able to move a
[36:03] Speaker 2: bit more freely now. But there'll be grand face in
[36:05] Speaker 2: there right now that are not the conventionals.
[36:09] Speaker 1: Not not not uniformed, not uniformed.
[36:12] Speaker 2: So they'll all be in there for sure. But as
[36:15] Speaker 2: for uniformed boots on the ground, I mean Trump said
[36:18] Speaker 2: he hasn't wouldn't rule it out, so I think there'll
[36:20] Speaker 2: be a chance they'll do it.
[36:22] Speaker 1: So what's the general view on Israeli soldiers, Because I mean,
[36:25] Speaker 1: they're already they're now being deployed to Lebanon after has Botta.
[36:29] Speaker 1: Obviously there's still a force in Gaza doing whatever they
[36:34] Speaker 1: continue to do there. Does it seem like they've had
[36:37] Speaker 1: to do any down with the whot Is at this stage.
[36:40] Speaker 1: Does Israel have enough soldiers to send able to run No.
[36:44] Speaker 2: I don't well, I think they would. They'll obviously be
[36:47] Speaker 2: securing their immediate they might have something coalition for sure,
[36:50] Speaker 2: because they're so they're so good with that region, and
[36:52] Speaker 2: I know they do. The Masade have a lot of
[36:57] Speaker 2: undercover agents and operatives that work in Irana as well,
[37:00] Speaker 2: which is one of the reasons they were so successful.
[37:03] Speaker 2: In the middle of last year, they had weapons prepositioned drones,
[37:07] Speaker 2: all the launch sites were being tiged, all their defense sites.
[37:10] Speaker 2: Because the playbook for the Israelis and Americans has been
[37:13] Speaker 2: fired for for years. It's like target the ed defense systems,
[37:17] Speaker 2: get more aircraft in, hit more targets, and then if
[37:20] Speaker 2: you can hit that crack, you kind of break the
[37:22] Speaker 2: whole system open. So they've been good at that. Israelis
[37:26] Speaker 2: have been No one's been been better.
[37:28] Speaker 1: Than them, MARKI, if you wouldn't mind, I mean you
[37:31] Speaker 1: obviously stuff backwards, but let's just go back through that
[37:34] Speaker 1: on what you just said. They've been using the same
[37:37] Speaker 1: sort of called strategy for a long time. Obviously be
[37:40] Speaker 1: tactical changes, but just the overall strategy. It seems as
[37:44] Speaker 1: though what Israel someone's very good at anyway, maybe a
[37:48] Speaker 1: combination of intelligence people intelligence people. We're talking about knowing
[37:54] Speaker 1: where everybody's hanging out, you know, where the leadership is,
[37:59] Speaker 1: where the very sites are. That stuff takes years. Mossad
[38:03] Speaker 1: seem to be really good at this stuff.
[38:05] Speaker 2: Ye really good, and.
[38:08] Speaker 1: I of wondered how is they do it?
[38:10] Speaker 2: Though?
[38:11] Speaker 1: Do they do it by paying local people off? I mean,
[38:14] Speaker 1: do they get people to be treason all.
[38:18] Speaker 2: The above, like they use human intelligence by getting agents
[38:23] Speaker 2: to work with them. They hack I think the way
[38:26] Speaker 2: they got coming and I read this in open sources.
[38:28] Speaker 2: They had hacked some of the traffic cameras in that area.
[38:31] Speaker 2: They picked up vehicles that were associated with his protection
[38:34] Speaker 2: detail that were in that area, so they knew he
[38:37] Speaker 2: was likely there. Then they mashed it with some human
[38:39] Speaker 2: intelligence and probably signals intelligence. So you do need all
[38:43] Speaker 2: those working together, everything, satellite, everything, and you need to
[38:48] Speaker 2: fuse all that information so you've got a clear picture
[38:50] Speaker 2: of what what might be happening on the ground.
[38:53] Speaker 1: But it's a probability event though probability.
[38:56] Speaker 2: They're trying to say, look, we've got now, I got
[38:57] Speaker 2: very high confidence that he's in this building.
[39:01] Speaker 1: And with you, because he was there with all these
[39:04] Speaker 1: senior leadership team, let's call it. And then someone that
[39:09] Speaker 1: just says, okay, well, let's target that particular position at
[39:12] Speaker 1: that particular moment, that particular day. And it's interesting you
[39:19] Speaker 1: just said like that, they get satellited information and then they,
[39:21] Speaker 1: as you say, they hack into the cameras because there'll
[39:24] Speaker 1: be cameras everywhere in a run for sure, because it's
[39:26] Speaker 1: that type of state where they want watch what the
[39:28] Speaker 1: citizens are doing. They wouldn't make sure. No I was
[39:30] Speaker 1: playing up, but no one even knew they were being hacked.
[39:33] Speaker 2: No, not necessarily. No, they just again that they might
[39:38] Speaker 2: have done this ten years ago. They've been sitting on
[39:39] Speaker 2: it for that long until that need to. It's like
[39:42] Speaker 2: that page operation.
[39:43] Speaker 1: Unbelievable that they were selling pages to Lebanese Hesbela, yeah
[39:48] Speaker 1: or Hesla, and they sat on it for years and
[39:52] Speaker 1: they just decided to buy them all over once. It's mental.
[39:55] Speaker 2: I'm not laughing about it, but it's obviously.
[39:58] Speaker 1: The intellect of it is crazy.
[40:01] Speaker 2: In terms of an operation. That's yeah, it's crazy what
[40:03] Speaker 2: they've what they've been able to achieve. And obviously they've
[40:07] Speaker 2: had so much time being surrounded by people that and
[40:10] Speaker 2: it Ryan said that, you know, we would wipe his
[40:12] Speaker 2: railph the map, so they they did take it seriously. Yeah,
[40:16] Speaker 2: we're now war over.
[40:18] Speaker 1: So for years and years and years have been setting
[40:21] Speaker 1: up this process like it's been a major stitch up,
[40:26] Speaker 1: as we say here in Austrated Yeah, a major stitch
[40:28] Speaker 1: up at political and at a personal level. And then
[40:34] Speaker 1: would it be the case that let's call it the c
[40:37] Speaker 1: c I A or the Americans would be shared with
[40:39] Speaker 1: that information the whole time?
[40:41] Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, they'd be collaborating pretty closely, ither think, Yeah sure.
[40:45] Speaker 1: And so is this an example of where tech is
[40:48] Speaker 1: changing warfare?
[40:49] Speaker 2: Yeah, it's always It's funny. I remember being in Afghanistan
[40:54] Speaker 2: and getting briefed on American special capabilities. These are really
[40:58] Speaker 2: advanced ones. They had the tracking or weapons or whatever.
[41:02] Speaker 2: And for all that we had so much stuff, they're
[41:06] Speaker 2: all the best tech in the world. All these tricks
[41:08] Speaker 2: and traps and aircraft and none of them mattered. In
[41:11] Speaker 2: the end, we still didn't win.
[41:14] Speaker 1: Yeah, So it's what do you put that down to.
[41:17] Speaker 2: It comes down to political political priorities and political will
[41:22] Speaker 2: and whether it's an achievable mission in the first place.
[41:25] Speaker 2: And I think we kind of wasn't. What we were
[41:27] Speaker 2: trying to do wasn't really achievable. And there also wasn't
[41:30] Speaker 2: the political impetus to make it happen because it was
[41:33] Speaker 2: too it would have been too costly a mission.
[41:36] Speaker 1: And relative to the benefit relatives.
[41:40] Speaker 2: The benefit, this is a terrible trade off. Yeah.
[41:43] Speaker 1: So, and of course if you get a change in
[41:45] Speaker 1: the administration, that makes a big difference, because then you
[41:48] Speaker 1: got Biden come in, et cetera. And then others sort
[41:50] Speaker 1: of say, well, that's too hard, we're getting out of it.
[41:52] Speaker 1: But in fact, I think it was Trump pulled them
[41:54] Speaker 1: out in the end.
[41:55] Speaker 2: Biden pulled them out Trump. I think Trump wanted to.
[41:58] Speaker 2: He reduced the size of the but here on to
[42:00] Speaker 2: retain some of the key bases there, I think Bagroom
[42:04] Speaker 2: and a few others, and then Biden pulled.
[42:07] Speaker 1: Hi out of Afghanistan.
[42:08] Speaker 2: That's right, but almost I can't put I don't put
[42:11] Speaker 2: too much blame on him because we deluded ourselves for
[42:15] Speaker 2: a long time as a military that it was an
[42:16] Speaker 2: achievable task and it wasn't achievable.
[42:20] Speaker 1: Did you think do you when you say we, do
[42:22] Speaker 1: you think you were someone who was in those theaters?
[42:26] Speaker 1: Do you feel as though you were sort of deluded
[42:29] Speaker 1: a little bit?
[42:30] Speaker 2: Oh? Yeah, like I was. You've got to be a
[42:32] Speaker 2: bit optimistic, even if it's a hard job. You've got
[42:35] Speaker 2: to be optimistic and you have to work towards.
[42:36] Speaker 1: There's a difference between optimism delusion, I guess exactly.
[42:39] Speaker 2: But towards the end, I was like, this isn't working.
[42:42] Speaker 2: Because I've been every year for I think four or
[42:44] Speaker 2: five years, and I was like, this isn't working because
[42:47] Speaker 2: it has gotten worse. We get more casualties, We've thrown
[42:51] Speaker 2: more equipment and troops and firepower of the problem, and
[42:54] Speaker 2: we're still not getting ahead. And the reason was because
[42:58] Speaker 2: we were bound by Pakistan, so we couldn't stop ammunition
[43:01] Speaker 2: and troops and IDs of the roadside bombs coming over
[43:05] Speaker 2: the border. There wasn't a functioning Afghan government and police force.
[43:11] Speaker 2: They are only effective around theable, So it wasn't a
[43:14] Speaker 2: mission wicked to achieve realistically.
[43:17] Speaker 1: So do you think that this is this event right
[43:22] Speaker 1: now more likely to create a larger event or more
[43:31] Speaker 1: likely to fizzle like everything else that's happened like Afghanistani
[43:34] Speaker 1: rock etc.
[43:36] Speaker 2: It's a good question. I think that it's if ever
[43:40] Speaker 2: there's been a probability of a major escalation something that
[43:44] Speaker 2: this makes it more likely.
[43:46] Speaker 1: Again, why do you think that then, Because.
[43:49] Speaker 2: It's there's multi front wars happening at the same time.
[43:53] Speaker 2: If you go back to that, we've got major European war,
[43:57] Speaker 2: major Middle Eastern war, and the chance of as your
[44:00] Speaker 2: conflict in the Pacific, of quite a high chance if
[44:03] Speaker 2: in Taiwan, Taiwan, if you believe what the Chinese presidents
[44:08] Speaker 2: are saying, you know, we are going to reunify with Taiwan.
[44:11] Speaker 2: We're going to do it. It's just a matter of when.
[44:13] Speaker 2: And if you go all the way back to say
[44:15] Speaker 2: the start of World War two, even like the early
[44:18] Speaker 2: like the summer of nineteen forty one, for example, the
[44:22] Speaker 2: war had been going for about a year by that point,
[44:25] Speaker 2: almost two years, and then there's no Eastern Front that
[44:28] Speaker 2: hasn't opened up, So the Germans haven't started the operation
[44:32] Speaker 2: to enforce Russia. The Americans haven't been attacked at Pearl
[44:36] Speaker 2: Harbor yet. There's just some battle of Britains being fought.
[44:40] Speaker 2: There's some action in North Africa and Scandinavia, and that's it.
[44:44] Speaker 2: So I didn't really feel like a world war in
[44:47] Speaker 2: ninety forty one, but within six months the whole world was,
[44:50] Speaker 2: you know, a flame. So I keep seeing a similar
[44:54] Speaker 2: parallel here. I'm like, there are these major spotfires that
[44:57] Speaker 2: if you, if you rewound the clock even ten years,
[45:00] Speaker 2: be shocked by one of them. We now have two
[45:02] Speaker 2: happening at once, with the possibility of the third one opening.
[45:06] Speaker 1: Up, the third one being the Pacific. The Pacific, and
[45:12] Speaker 1: so the ones you're referring to is Rushia Ukraine. If
[45:16] Speaker 1: I'm putent and I'm sitting here feeling, I think to
[45:20] Speaker 1: myself or the world has been criticizing me for what
[45:21] Speaker 1: I'm doing in the Ukraine. Then the next in my
[45:24] Speaker 1: next per I think, I said, yeah, but hang on,
[45:26] Speaker 1: the people criticizing me, you're doing exactly the same thing
[45:28] Speaker 1: and you run. Therefore, I'm now justified doing what I'm doing.
[45:31] Speaker 1: And by the way, the tensions off, the tension has
[45:34] Speaker 1: come away from Ukraine. And I'm also thinking myself. America
[45:38] Speaker 1: right now is now spending a lot of money a
[45:40] Speaker 1: lot of times, sending a lot of ordinances. They're going
[45:44] Speaker 1: to run out of stuff, money, stuff, political will everything.
[45:50] Speaker 1: So this is a good time for me to just
[45:52] Speaker 1: put more pressure on Ukraine. Which is like, if I'm
[45:55] Speaker 1: doing the art of the deal, if I'm negotiating, then
[45:58] Speaker 1: if I'm over in China, I'm thinking of myself, well
[46:00] Speaker 1: maybe now no one can really criticize me America. The
[46:03] Speaker 1: ones I'm worried about is America, uk Aucus, Japan were
[46:07] Speaker 1: they're the ones I'm worried about criticizing me. If I'm China,
[46:11] Speaker 1: they can't criticize me.
[46:12] Speaker 2: No, people have People don't think about this in the West.
[46:17] Speaker 2: We especially because of Iraq for example, it's very hard
[46:22] Speaker 2: for Russia to take how seriously in Ukraine when we say,
[46:25] Speaker 2: you know, don't, don't invade that country, it's the wrong
[46:28] Speaker 2: thing to do, when we did exactly the same thing
[46:31] Speaker 2: not that long ago, and we've done it again now.
[46:33] Speaker 2: So I'm not talking about right or wrong here, I'm
[46:35] Speaker 2: just saying that's the dynamic.
[46:37] Speaker 1: It's the logic.
[46:37] Speaker 2: It's the logic that plays out. It's like, who are
[46:39] Speaker 2: you to now tell us not to take Taiwan when
[46:42] Speaker 2: you've just done that in in Iran.
[46:44] Speaker 1: And you know, you did take us back to World
[46:47] Speaker 1: War two, And it sort of makes a little bit
[46:49] Speaker 1: of sense because Musolini came into the into the Fray.
[46:52] Speaker 1: He then decided to attack Greece, and then the Greek
[46:56] Speaker 1: Greeks kicked him out and Germany had to go back
[46:59] Speaker 1: and support their ally and they took control. And then
[47:03] Speaker 1: of course, little bit after that, the Japanese Si miles
[47:06] Speaker 1: of a crack too, and then it was just one
[47:09] Speaker 1: cascade after another. As someone who's you know, none of
[47:12] Speaker 1: us have been in war. We're all sort of you know, citizens,
[47:16] Speaker 1: citizen warriors, all of us. The best we ever doing
[47:18] Speaker 1: close to wars we get in the jiu jitsu mats
[47:21] Speaker 1: as we ever get. There's no worse. I think what
[47:25] Speaker 1: you've done is worse. But you've actually been there and
[47:28] Speaker 1: you've seen how these things can escalate. Do you think
[47:31] Speaker 1: then that irrespect of all the technology, it comes down
[47:35] Speaker 1: to a game of who wants it the most just.
[47:39] Speaker 2: About well, yeah, that and the kind of the national
[47:44] Speaker 2: imperative to win is what matters most. Like Ukraine, that's
[47:50] Speaker 2: their backs.
[47:51] Speaker 1: Against the war they want to win. They've got to win,
[47:53] Speaker 1: and they talk this.
[47:54] Speaker 2: Is where they talk about theorists will talk about that
[47:57] Speaker 2: just war versus you, war choice or what is it,
[48:03] Speaker 2: war of choice versus the es central war. We're in
[48:06] Speaker 2: a war of choice here and we've been doing that
[48:08] Speaker 2: for a while. So they're much harder to win once
[48:10] Speaker 2: they get hard.
[48:11] Speaker 1: Because, like you know, if they're going to secure places
[48:16] Speaker 1: in Iran, because if they don't, if they don't secure it,
[48:18] Speaker 1: if that there's no point bombing the shit out of it,
[48:20] Speaker 1: and they're not securing situations because they'll go back to
[48:24] Speaker 1: doing what they're doing before. I mean, so you've got
[48:26] Speaker 1: to go secure it. If you don't secure it, if
[48:28] Speaker 1: you try to secure it, I should say, they're going
[48:30] Speaker 1: to say, well, hey, this is my country. I'm going
[48:33] Speaker 1: to fight to the death, a bit like the Ukrainians,
[48:37] Speaker 1: like you're not giving me any choice unless there's some
[48:40] Speaker 1: sort of revolution or something, which is maybe what they're
[48:42] Speaker 1: hoping for. What about that part of it.
[48:44] Speaker 2: Well, that's that's what they're homeful. They're hoping opposition government
[48:48] Speaker 2: forms that can assert control over the place, and that
[48:52] Speaker 2: they don't need to go in there with troops and
[48:55] Speaker 2: do it.
[48:56] Speaker 1: That sounds a bit fanciful to me.
[48:57] Speaker 2: It does sound fanciful, I mean.
[49:00] Speaker 1: Because it's not like the Iranian Presidential guard. I think
[49:06] Speaker 1: that's what they're call But whatever they're called, there's like
[49:08] Speaker 1: a million of them or something on it. There's a
[49:10] Speaker 1: big body.
[49:11] Speaker 2: Force, yeah, I think across all the branches, so like army,
[49:14] Speaker 2: police forces, Republican guard I think it's about a million
[49:18] Speaker 2: from total, but it's a huge force. So they want
[49:20] Speaker 2: to suppress a revolution. They might still be able to
[49:24] Speaker 2: do it. I know they're breaking down their ability to
[49:28] Speaker 2: the structures, the military equipment, all that stuff is being destroyed.
[49:32] Speaker 2: But it doesn't mean that out of the ashes is
[49:35] Speaker 2: going to come this opposition and everything's going to be fine.
[49:38] Speaker 2: It might descend into civil war, like who.
[49:40] Speaker 1: Knows, but that's what I'm saying. It could end up
[49:42] Speaker 1: being a civil war. But the ones are going to win,
[49:43] Speaker 1: the ones with the guns and the training in.
[49:46] Speaker 2: Afghanistan, after is it, after ten years of the Soviets
[49:49] Speaker 2: fighting there for ten years, it became kind of war audism, and.
[49:54] Speaker 1: I'd imagine, you know, the push for power, So right now,
[49:58] Speaker 1: of course you run as anointed their new leader who's
[50:03] Speaker 1: the commande's son. Do you think that he would be
[50:09] Speaker 1: a dead man walking? I mean, it would it be
[50:11] Speaker 1: a case that the Israelis or the Mossad or the
[50:14] Speaker 1: United States of all of them know exactly where he's
[50:16] Speaker 1: hanging out because they've been looking at the cameras.
[50:18] Speaker 2: That would be pretty desperate, yeah, to get him to
[50:21] Speaker 2: target him, I think. But all but you're right that
[50:24] Speaker 2: all this is like they don't actually know where it's
[50:26] Speaker 2: going to go. And once you start a war like that,
[50:28] Speaker 2: you can't really predict. You can't predict what how it's
[50:32] Speaker 2: going to look at that at the end, it's just
[50:35] Speaker 2: it's out of their hands. Now. I think the argument
[50:38] Speaker 2: is always you better the devil, you know, and sometimes yeah,
[50:42] Speaker 2: sometimes yeah.
[50:43] Speaker 1: I mean, if we just talk about the net effect
[50:46] Speaker 1: on the world, the net effect of the world's economy,
[50:50] Speaker 1: you know, unfortunately we're in a region where we are
[50:53] Speaker 1: the biggest export is something that the whole world still
[50:55] Speaker 1: relies on fossil fuels, well gas, gas in particular oil
[51:00] Speaker 1: for sure. Still there are other oil producing countries, but
[51:05] Speaker 1: a lot of gas comes out of that area, and
[51:08] Speaker 1: it's got to come through the straight sea of war. Wars.
[51:12] Speaker 1: Is it possible for Trump to control that with you
[51:18] Speaker 1: with all the navy that he's got sitting there, can
[51:20] Speaker 1: he control that and sort of protect those all tankers
[51:22] Speaker 1: to come through. Let's put the insurance side part aside.
[51:26] Speaker 2: Yeah they can. I know, they've they would have war
[51:29] Speaker 2: gained this a lot, and they'll have the ability to
[51:31] Speaker 2: do it. But it will take a lot of a
[51:33] Speaker 2: lot of navel as said, it's a lot of Like
[51:36] Speaker 2: it's only thirty nine kilometers wide at the mouth, it's
[51:38] Speaker 2: like tiny, yeah, tiny space, but yeah, they were twenty
[51:42] Speaker 2: four miles whatever that is kilumbus not big, and so
[51:45] Speaker 2: they'll have a plan to secure and keep the traffic moving,
[51:48] Speaker 2: but it's another train of resources.
[51:50] Speaker 1: Like it's how long can they do that for?
[51:52] Speaker 2: Though? I don't know?
[51:53] Speaker 1: I mean, like I can't imagine what one of those
[51:55] Speaker 1: big aircraft carriers cost to run.
[51:57] Speaker 2: Enormous, enormous and one's been already been on deployment eight
[52:00] Speaker 2: months age to have for cyclight out soon. So you
[52:02] Speaker 2: don't have and you make a point, you don't have
[52:05] Speaker 2: infinite resources. So if another front did open up somewhere
[52:09] Speaker 2: in the world, what happens now? How are you going
[52:12] Speaker 2: to deal with. You got all of a sudden half
[52:16] Speaker 2: your resources diverted to another front. This is what happened
[52:18] Speaker 2: in Iran, sorry, Iraq and Afghanistan. It was effectively a
[52:22] Speaker 2: two front war and we just didn't have what we
[52:24] Speaker 2: needed to win.
[52:26] Speaker 1: Did you think that? Because the oil price the last
[52:29] Speaker 1: couple of days has been like you get brain demy,
[52:31] Speaker 1: he's trying to follow it, but it has gone up,
[52:32] Speaker 1: it's gone down, it's gone up. He has gone back
[52:34] Speaker 1: down that whilst you and I are talking, and the
[52:37] Speaker 1: share markets responded each time. So you know, we lost
[52:40] Speaker 1: ada billion off the share market of the ASEX yesterday,
[52:42] Speaker 1: but it's recovering today and people sort of looking at
[52:45] Speaker 1: their superinnovation and you know the thing of war, what
[52:48] Speaker 1: the hell America would be worse? Do you think the
[52:52] Speaker 1: political pressure relating to oil prices is the strength? Is
[52:58] Speaker 1: the the string in the bow of Iran that they
[53:03] Speaker 1: haven't played enough of yet.
[53:04] Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a big pressure point. And also the Gulf
[53:07] Speaker 2: States will be pressuring America to keep it as short
[53:10] Speaker 2: as short a war as they can because their economy
[53:12] Speaker 2: relies on expats and all the oil industries and whatnot,
[53:17] Speaker 2: so they want to keep this as short as they can,
[53:21] Speaker 2: and then the average consumer in the West, it's going
[53:23] Speaker 2: to hire inflation. I think the predicted five percent flash,
[53:27] Speaker 2: we've already had interest rates or like, there's a lot
[53:31] Speaker 2: to deal with it once.
[53:32] Speaker 1: Do you think they've worked there? Do you think the
[53:35] Speaker 1: the iler they knew this stuff before.
[53:38] Speaker 2: They know they've got some sway. But one advantage for
[53:41] Speaker 2: the Americans is I think only three percent of the
[53:43] Speaker 2: exports that come out of they go to the US.
[53:45] Speaker 1: Because US is quite self self sufficient when it comes
[53:47] Speaker 1: to oil. But the rest of US, like Asia, Asia
[53:51] Speaker 1: suffers big time, particularly with gas and oil and a
[53:54] Speaker 1: lot of in Australia, like a lot of our we've
[53:57] Speaker 1: only got a month's worth of supplies.
[54:00] Speaker 2: Yeah literally, yeah, thirty five days.
[54:02] Speaker 1: Or yeah, yeah, maybe you could explain what is this
[54:06] Speaker 1: general I don't even know about this, but I heard
[54:08] Speaker 1: about it on the news, but the general consensus around
[54:10] Speaker 1: the world that there's everyone should carry ninety days supply,
[54:14] Speaker 1: every nation should carry nine days.
[54:16] Speaker 2: They need to Yeah, they need to expand it. I
[54:18] Speaker 2: know it's expensive to hold those reserves, and I don't
[54:21] Speaker 2: know what some of the other countries have, like the US,
[54:23] Speaker 2: for example, but I know here, we've got about thirty
[54:26] Speaker 2: something days. If that runs out all of a sudden,
[54:30] Speaker 2: you know, all heavy industries, hospitals, medicines, foods, all, it
[54:35] Speaker 2: all stops, farmers, farmers, it all stops. The economy will
[54:39] Speaker 2: just grin into a wholt. And if Australia in particular,
[54:42] Speaker 2: if we can't control and all the tools and get
[54:45] Speaker 2: imports coming in, if there's a Pacific war, for example,
[54:48] Speaker 2: we'll run out of we'll go to fuel rationing and
[54:52] Speaker 2: it'll be a very different economy once that happens. It'd
[54:54] Speaker 2: be scary, be scary. Yeah, it won't have been in
[54:57] Speaker 2: that territory since World War Two.
[54:58] Speaker 1: Do you think we would be voe? I mean, like
[55:00] Speaker 1: if we're on these vulnerable Jim Nolan when he was
[55:07] Speaker 1: a senator, I'm not so much prior to that, but
[55:09] Speaker 1: I used to follow him a lot when he's a
[55:10] Speaker 1: senator and he's his thinking back then before he passed away,
[55:16] Speaker 1: was about how vulnerable we are to our neighbors if
[55:21] Speaker 1: anybody decided to sort of poke the nose in here.
[55:24] Speaker 1: We're a country full of resources, even though we don't
[55:26] Speaker 1: we don't mind most of it, but were full of resources.
[55:30] Speaker 1: We're a very attractive place to come to in terms
[55:33] Speaker 1: of but we're completely undermanned, both in terms of people
[55:38] Speaker 1: joining the army or the military, but also you know,
[55:43] Speaker 1: our equipment hopeless. We could not defend ourselves, could be.
[55:50] Speaker 2: For a short time, and then we wouldn't be able
[55:52] Speaker 2: to We don't have the kind of mass to be
[55:55] Speaker 2: able to do it. And I think our entire military
[55:58] Speaker 2: is I think seventy thousand rough doesn't even fill the MCG.
[56:03] Speaker 2: It's a tiny group, and we've got good equipment and
[56:06] Speaker 2: good training all that stuff, but it just it won't
[56:08] Speaker 2: matt It relies on external support to allies and whatnot.
[56:14] Speaker 2: So my oppoint has always been like, why would you
[56:16] Speaker 2: not have a fully self sufficient defense force or the
[56:20] Speaker 2: capability to protect yourself with no eyes, because we won't
[56:24] Speaker 2: if there is a major war. This happened in World
[56:27] Speaker 2: War Two when we lost Singapore, the US, the UK
[56:32] Speaker 2: or our major northern hemisphere. Our allies might be totally
[56:35] Speaker 2: committed to other.
[56:36] Speaker 1: Battles totally, Like if something happens in Taiwan and the
[56:40] Speaker 1: US is already stuck in the Middle East, they have
[56:42] Speaker 1: to go a center for there's nothing left for us.
[56:45] Speaker 2: And to his credit. Kevin Rudd picked this up and
[56:48] Speaker 2: the first I think it was the first white paper
[56:50] Speaker 2: he did in two thousand and nine, he said, we
[56:52] Speaker 2: need to have a sub fleet that's at least twelve submarines.
[56:55] Speaker 2: We need to be able to protect shipping to our north.
[56:58] Speaker 1: Are you men now shipping? Yeah?
[57:00] Speaker 2: And now fifteen sixteen years later, we still don't have submarines.
[57:04] Speaker 2: We're very vulnerable.
[57:06] Speaker 1: But how will we get even to get people to
[57:08] Speaker 1: join the military? Man, you're ex military? As I understand it,
[57:15] Speaker 1: this billow of the police force, no one wants to
[57:17] Speaker 1: join either one. How do we get people to become
[57:21] Speaker 1: more keen or interested to join the military?
[57:25] Speaker 2: I think that they've the recruiting for it has been
[57:29] Speaker 2: off the mark quite a bit. The way they present
[57:31] Speaker 2: the force is this coming here for an opportunity. You know,
[57:35] Speaker 2: it don't work too hard. You know, you get your
[57:37] Speaker 2: stuff paid for a super diverse force. The traditional marketing
[57:41] Speaker 2: they did was very service orientated, adventure orientated, and I
[57:45] Speaker 2: think that works better. But also the economy, the broader
[57:47] Speaker 2: economy is a big, big effect too. So once unemployment
[57:51] Speaker 2: goes up a bit, military recruiting kicks doesn't.
[57:55] Speaker 1: Because I can get a job and get paid, definitely.
[57:57] Speaker 2: And I watched in the army during certain economic burn periods,
[58:00] Speaker 2: we just couldn't get people in the door because it's
[58:03] Speaker 2: more lucrative jobs out there.
[58:05] Speaker 1: Yeah, because I mean, do we need to go as
[58:07] Speaker 1: far as what the United States started, you know, changing
[58:10] Speaker 1: from the Department of Defense to the Department of War.
[58:12] Speaker 1: I mean, like and a rebranded at that point, Pete
[58:16] Speaker 1: hegxas like you know, Karl Stefanovic or something. I don't know,
[58:19] Speaker 1: but you know what I'm saying, Like, because I wouldn't
[58:22] Speaker 1: mind your views on this, because it seems to me
[58:26] Speaker 1: that the United States has actually completely repackaged their whole
[58:29] Speaker 1: offering when it comes to military and there's no coincidence
[58:33] Speaker 1: that they're now at a war or in a war theater.
[58:38] Speaker 1: But these things, these changes were made sometime ago. It's
[58:42] Speaker 1: nearly like they were building up for it. I mean
[58:43] Speaker 1: it's nearly. I mean, I feel stupid, but it's nearly
[58:46] Speaker 1: like when they renamed the Defense portfolio as the Department
[58:51] Speaker 1: of War. I should have worked that out because like,
[58:54] Speaker 1: because we're going to war. We know we might be
[58:57] Speaker 1: going to war at some stage, and hex is an
[59:00] Speaker 1: ex military guy, anyway, I'm not taking it away from me. Yeah,
[59:05] Speaker 1: he was reserved.
[59:05] Speaker 2: I thought he went to I think he was reserved,
[59:07] Speaker 2: but he deployed. I know he deployed, I think to
[59:09] Speaker 2: Iraq and whatnot.
[59:10] Speaker 1: So like, do you think we need to be sending
[59:13] Speaker 1: those messages though to our potential you know, threats.
[59:20] Speaker 2: Well, I think, And to talk about the rebrand quickly,
[59:25] Speaker 2: And you have to give Trump credit with that because
[59:27] Speaker 2: of his experience in television and business. He does understand
[59:31] Speaker 2: branding and marketing and how he presents something. And I
[59:35] Speaker 2: think they've done that with the military, that've have repackaged
[59:38] Speaker 2: it as you said, and presented as this fighting force
[59:41] Speaker 2: and conventure flag and adventure and all those kind of
[59:46] Speaker 2: Department of War. All those things point to a certain
[59:49] Speaker 2: feel that it didn't have before, felt a bit more
[59:51] Speaker 2: bureaucratic maybe, So they do have to give him credit
[59:55] Speaker 2: on that front. They have repackaged it to something that's
[59:58] Speaker 2: been more suited to what they wanted to use it for.
[1:00:00] Speaker 2: Australia hasn't really done that, but I haven't said that.
[1:00:03] Speaker 2: I know a few a few of the officers that
[1:00:05] Speaker 2: are at the top of the army now I served
[1:00:07] Speaker 2: with when I joined, and they're all really capable. But
[1:00:10] Speaker 2: again they're restricted by the budget, which is not big,
[1:00:15] Speaker 2: and they're restricted by the government's aggressiveness or assertiveness around
[1:00:21] Speaker 2: building defense capability.
[1:00:23] Speaker 1: Or lack of aggressive aggressive aggressive.
[1:00:26] Speaker 2: Yeah, some governments just don't have a good grasp of
[1:00:30] Speaker 2: security and force and foreign policy. They don't they don't
[1:00:36] Speaker 2: kind of get the military. I feel a lot of
[1:00:38] Speaker 2: politicians don't.
[1:00:39] Speaker 1: Well, some of the utterings in the last couple of
[1:00:42] Speaker 1: days between the Prime Minister, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Minister
[1:00:48] Speaker 1: of Defense have been about yes, we are going to
[1:00:51] Speaker 1: send some some support to I think Dubai or to
[1:00:56] Speaker 1: the Emirates, but making it really really clear that the
[1:01:03] Speaker 1: only part they're going to play in all this is defense.
[1:01:06] Speaker 1: They're defending environments, like we're going to help defend the
[1:01:09] Speaker 1: twenty four thousand both ways, yeah, both ways. Or the
[1:01:15] Speaker 1: two or three guys or people who were on the
[1:01:19] Speaker 1: submarine that sunk that frigate, they had no part in
[1:01:24] Speaker 1: all this. They were just a sort of you know,
[1:01:26] Speaker 1: war tourists or something, I don't know, you know, it.
[1:01:28] Speaker 2: Was like, well, they're on a New York submarine. Yeah,
[1:01:31] Speaker 2: they're probably engaged in the fensive.
[1:01:32] Speaker 1: Operations, they'd have a role. They're not just sort of
[1:01:35] Speaker 1: push the button. But no. But like the way that
[1:01:37] Speaker 1: it was described was that, well, they're just onlookers the
[1:01:41] Speaker 1: type of thing.
[1:01:41] Speaker 2: I find that frustrating because everyone knows that's not true.
[1:01:45] Speaker 2: Anyone with common sense would say, well that they participating
[1:01:48] Speaker 2: it for sure, but they.
[1:01:49] Speaker 1: They have a role because something.
[1:01:51] Speaker 2: But obviously they're trying not to put Australian situation. Might
[1:01:56] Speaker 2: we maybe don't want to be in where we're but
[1:01:58] Speaker 2: we're not.
[1:01:58] Speaker 1: They're not going to come down here that are they? Right?
[1:02:02] Speaker 2: The big dilemma is now where partnered with the US.
[1:02:04] Speaker 2: We've got these bases up north, We've got the submarines
[1:02:07] Speaker 2: or orcast and all that. If there is a major conflict,
[1:02:10] Speaker 2: we're going to war with Americans. That decision has been
[1:02:13] Speaker 2: made for us with this kind of orcust plan, and
[1:02:16] Speaker 2: I don't know if that's the right way to do it.
[1:02:20] Speaker 2: That's something that wasn't debated nationally. He was kind of
[1:02:23] Speaker 2: foisted upon us a bit.
[1:02:27] Speaker 1: I've often wondered to hear stories about this, but how
[1:02:31] Speaker 1: important is Australia from an intelligence point of view relative
[1:02:34] Speaker 1: to how wars play out? Given physically where we sit
[1:02:38] Speaker 1: on the globe relative to satellites and a lot of
[1:02:40] Speaker 1: other stuff, time zones, etc.
[1:02:44] Speaker 2: Pretty important. And surprisingly it's not until I read a
[1:02:47] Speaker 2: bit about how they how they signal submarines in the
[1:02:51] Speaker 2: Southern Hemisphere. It comes from the bases up in northwest Wa.
[1:02:54] Speaker 2: So these ultra low frequency towers that send radio into
[1:03:00] Speaker 2: the ocean basically to communicate with submarines in the event
[1:03:03] Speaker 2: of especially in nuclear conflict, our bases are the ones
[1:03:07] Speaker 2: that are going to pass that signal on. So Australia
[1:03:09] Speaker 2: is uniquely positioned in that sense.
[1:03:11] Speaker 1: And then physically on the globe.
[1:03:13] Speaker 2: And if anything happens in the Pacific, again, we're a
[1:03:16] Speaker 2: really good base that's far enough out of the firing
[1:03:18] Speaker 2: line that they won't be high volume. There'll be missiles
[1:03:22] Speaker 2: that can reach us, but it won't be as high
[1:03:24] Speaker 2: volume if we're in Sagua, you know. So our having
[1:03:27] Speaker 2: our base back where they've got bombers and support and
[1:03:30] Speaker 2: we're able to retool all that was all true during
[1:03:33] Speaker 2: World War Two as well. Oh really yeah, and they're
[1:03:35] Speaker 2: just doing it again like it was a good launching
[1:03:37] Speaker 2: pad into the Pacific for the Pacific. Yeah.
[1:03:40] Speaker 1: But Obviously they weren't using the same technology in World
[1:03:43] Speaker 1: War two as out now. But we've got places like
[1:03:45] Speaker 1: Pine Gap, we get like this satellite. You know, you
[1:03:49] Speaker 1: talked about it earlier about using satellites and hacking into
[1:03:53] Speaker 1: the cameras and all that sort of stuff, and you know,
[1:03:56] Speaker 1: you're not they're not using the Internet, they're using something
[1:03:58] Speaker 1: else and not making phone calls the mobile phones, using
[1:04:01] Speaker 1: some other signal system. Australia's physical position in terms of
[1:04:06] Speaker 1: technology would I would have think it would be pretty important.
[1:04:09] Speaker 1: Therefore I would have thought we're therefore at risk. Oh yeah,
[1:04:13] Speaker 1: because like if I am the enemy and well let's
[1:04:16] Speaker 1: try and stuff there, you know the signal signaling capability.
[1:04:21] Speaker 2: Oh, they're all targets. And that's what I found interesting
[1:04:23] Speaker 2: about the Chinese fleet kind of circumnavigate in Australia as
[1:04:27] Speaker 2: they were they were testing that ability to kind of
[1:04:31] Speaker 2: reach out and hit whatever we've got on the east
[1:04:33] Speaker 2: and seaboard that might house really capabilities. Yeah, they would
[1:04:36] Speaker 2: have been practicing for that for.
[1:04:37] Speaker 1: Sure, or sort of doing simulations.
[1:04:39] Speaker 2: Simulations yep.
[1:04:40] Speaker 1: Yeah. So okay, so it's you.
[1:04:43] Speaker 2: Know, we go to the south trying to see them
[1:04:45] Speaker 2: do the same thing. So do we Australia Australia in
[1:04:50] Speaker 2: concert with the Americans and other but.
[1:04:52] Speaker 1: We send out we don't have ships, do we with
[1:04:54] Speaker 1: many ships we've sent.
[1:04:56] Speaker 2: No, we've sent I think frigates up there. I'm not
[1:04:59] Speaker 2: sure what type. I'm not that across the navy ops,
[1:05:01] Speaker 2: but they're definitely up there for sure.
[1:05:03] Speaker 1: Like just sort of seeing how what the distance is
[1:05:06] Speaker 1: to a certain point that we might be interested.
[1:05:09] Speaker 2: In showerforce around in your reconnaissance in international waters supporting
[1:05:15] Speaker 2: the Americans. There might be a shoal or some some
[1:05:18] Speaker 2: activity they're trying to monusor our submarines that probably go
[1:05:21] Speaker 2: up that far. So there's a lot of we play
[1:05:23] Speaker 2: in their front yard a lot, and they've come down
[1:05:26] Speaker 2: here and done the same thing.
[1:05:27] Speaker 1: Because I thought to myself originally that it was just
[1:05:30] Speaker 1: like a bit of posturing and shell force or show
[1:05:34] Speaker 1: of that we can do this, we do whatever we want.
[1:05:36] Speaker 1: But you just open up another thinking process for me.
[1:05:39] Speaker 1: Maybe it may well be they were actually snooping. Yeah,
[1:05:43] Speaker 1: at that time.
[1:05:44] Speaker 2: All the above, they're like training for offensive strike missions,
[1:05:49] Speaker 2: collecting whatever intelligence they can, testing our maritime capability or
[1:05:53] Speaker 2: our surveillance capabilities, how well we can monitor our coastline.
[1:05:56] Speaker 1: Do you think we were monitoring them?
[1:05:58] Speaker 2: I think we were. But it was interesting when Defense
[1:06:03] Speaker 2: got caught out because they did that live fire drill
[1:06:06] Speaker 2: and it was picked up on her commercial aircraft down
[1:06:09] Speaker 2: to New Zealand going to New Zealand rather than the
[1:06:11] Speaker 2: Defense Force. So something's gone wrong with I don't know.
[1:06:14] Speaker 2: I don't know if they didn't have eyes on for
[1:06:16] Speaker 2: a period, I'm not sure why that didn't picked that up.
[1:06:19] Speaker 1: Are you worried about anything like relative to what's going
[1:06:23] Speaker 1: on right The.
[1:06:24] Speaker 2: Only thing that I'm worried about is that I don't
[1:06:26] Speaker 2: think people understand how at risk our countries and even
[1:06:31] Speaker 2: and we're not doing the things that you need to
[1:06:33] Speaker 2: do with a lot of le time to improve it.
[1:06:36] Speaker 2: Because it takes so long to build military capabilities, fuel
[1:06:41] Speaker 2: storage depots, defense infrastructure, whatever it is you need to
[1:06:47] Speaker 2: be self sufficient. It takes a long time, a lot
[1:06:49] Speaker 2: of money, a lot of effort to do it, and
[1:06:51] Speaker 2: commitment and commitment, political commitment, all those things. And I
[1:06:55] Speaker 2: just think people don't fully understand that we're at that
[1:06:58] Speaker 2: point where we should be doing it. We might not
[1:07:00] Speaker 2: need it, but better to have it not need it.
[1:07:04] Speaker 1: You know, I was singing last and listening to the
[1:07:05] Speaker 1: news because like you know, during these periods, and I
[1:07:08] Speaker 1: get fascinated with CNN, Fox News, the Sky News, like
[1:07:12] Speaker 1: I just become obsessed by it all. And I was
[1:07:16] Speaker 1: thinking to myself, they're talking about the cost of production
[1:07:21] Speaker 1: of the ordinances that that have been like then the
[1:07:25] Speaker 1: cost of a long range missile compared to the you
[1:07:27] Speaker 1: know the stuff, like the massive costs. And I thought
[1:07:31] Speaker 1: to myself, someone has to physically produced all this stuff
[1:07:34] Speaker 1: made out of steel or whatever it's made out of.
[1:07:37] Speaker 1: And given that we have a lot of resources here
[1:07:39] Speaker 1: in Australia, I wonder why Australia has ever thought to
[1:07:41] Speaker 1: itself to become a supply to the world of manufacturing
[1:07:45] Speaker 1: this stuff. I mean, I mean, is it some specialists.
[1:07:48] Speaker 1: I mean, obviously it's got to be specialized, But is
[1:07:50] Speaker 1: there something beyond our capability to manufacturing these ordinances and
[1:07:53] Speaker 1: actually sell them to America or sell them to whoever?
[1:07:56] Speaker 2: It's not And we've got to I know, they've got
[1:07:59] Speaker 2: some until production facilities. They're starting to expand out in
[1:08:02] Speaker 2: Australia now there's new ones getting built because they're seeing
[1:08:05] Speaker 2: in Europe with the Ukraine War that just the volume
[1:08:09] Speaker 2: of artillery they're using is so enormous that they might
[1:08:13] Speaker 2: use I think I read six to eight thousand rounds
[1:08:15] Speaker 2: a day during the offensive operation. These rounds are they're
[1:08:19] Speaker 2: like as tall, you know, they're waist height thirty kilo
[1:08:23] Speaker 2: rounds and they're churning out thousands a day. And in Australia,
[1:08:27] Speaker 2: I think we're producing six thousand a year or something,
[1:08:30] Speaker 2: so we've got they're now looking at factories that are
[1:08:33] Speaker 2: able to ramp that capability up. The US are building
[1:08:36] Speaker 2: ones that are automated and just run with minimal people.
[1:08:40] Speaker 2: Apparently the Chinese have fully automated factories that work around
[1:08:44] Speaker 2: the clock building cruise missiles, so really advanced, really advanced missiles.
[1:08:49] Speaker 2: And there are some defense startups in the US now
[1:08:51] Speaker 2: that are trying to build really low cost munitions and
[1:08:53] Speaker 2: weapons and all that to compete with this.
[1:08:55] Speaker 1: Would Is there anything you've often thought yourself would be
[1:08:58] Speaker 1: a great opportunity from Australia from an export point of view,
[1:09:01] Speaker 1: maybe becoming the drone capital of the world, like build
[1:09:05] Speaker 1: the best drones or and I know a few companies
[1:09:07] Speaker 1: like Drone Shield try to sort of start that up.
[1:09:09] Speaker 1: But is there anything that you see as an opportunity
[1:09:12] Speaker 1: that the world needs that we could we could be
[1:09:14] Speaker 1: providing apart from our you know, our position on the
[1:09:18] Speaker 1: globe relative to intelligence, what other things do you think
[1:09:22] Speaker 1: someone could do really well in Australia. The world's in
[1:09:25] Speaker 1: demand for now.
[1:09:27] Speaker 2: We've got certain advantages when it comes to niche manufacturing,
[1:09:32] Speaker 2: like we don't have all the broader stuff of the
[1:09:34] Speaker 2: US has. But you're right, some robotics, there's been Rocket
[1:09:38] Speaker 2: Company starting. There are a lot of and tech as well,
[1:09:40] Speaker 2: so nai as well. So there are some fields where
[1:09:43] Speaker 2: if we really put some impetus behind it, we could
[1:09:46] Speaker 2: become known for some of those industries. And I think
[1:09:49] Speaker 2: it'd be smart because we're we're not a complex economy.
[1:09:52] Speaker 2: It's really quite a basic economy, mining, engineering, tourism.
[1:09:57] Speaker 1: Because it's been too good for us, say ro the
[1:10:00] Speaker 1: Grand Center somewhere else.
[1:10:01] Speaker 2: So well, yeah, we've gotten rich off the back of.
[1:10:03] Speaker 1: That, sort of like semi lazy if you know what
[1:10:06] Speaker 1: I mean. I don't mean more lucky than good, Yeah,
[1:10:08] Speaker 1: more lucky than good, more more yeah, correct, more lucky
[1:10:11] Speaker 1: than competency and commitment. I mean we are confident what
[1:10:14] Speaker 1: we do, but it's more like it's been but we've
[1:10:17] Speaker 1: been able to live off our luck and we did
[1:10:19] Speaker 1: off the sheeps back for a long time and you know,
[1:10:21] Speaker 1: sheep brow their own. Well, we don't grow it. We
[1:10:23] Speaker 1: just have to take it off and send it somewhere.
[1:10:25] Speaker 1: And at the same with minerals. And it seems to
[1:10:28] Speaker 1: me that artificial intelligence seems like one way we could go.
[1:10:32] Speaker 1: Where do you see AI performing in the theater of
[1:10:35] Speaker 1: war today? I mean compared to say, when you were deployed.
[1:10:39] Speaker 2: Well, actually, and tell you the fact that data Centers
[1:10:42] Speaker 2: was one data centers, I know that. Yeah, coming down
[1:10:44] Speaker 2: saying you could be a center that hosts data centers,
[1:10:47] Speaker 2: I know that you're trying to do the same thing. Yeah,
[1:10:49] Speaker 2: so you could do.
[1:10:50] Speaker 1: That, but u A right now is a bit of
[1:10:53] Speaker 1: a drama because you're in the theater. I mean, and
[1:10:56] Speaker 1: if I'm an investor in because you know, you need
[1:10:59] Speaker 1: investors to put money build these things. They're expensive and
[1:11:01] Speaker 1: you need to build infrastructure around like water and power
[1:11:04] Speaker 1: of course electricity. I would think Australia would be a
[1:11:08] Speaker 1: better at a less risky position. Yeah, you can put
[1:11:12] Speaker 1: it out in the desert or not a desert, but
[1:11:14] Speaker 1: you can put out something a bit more remote, doesn't
[1:11:16] Speaker 1: have to be in the middle of Brisbane or something.
[1:11:17] Speaker 2: Yeah, so that's one opportunity or reckon would be perfect and.
[1:11:21] Speaker 1: The people like the Aws's of the world could heavily
[1:11:24] Speaker 1: rely on us in that regard. So, but do you
[1:11:29] Speaker 1: think do you think when I want to go back
[1:11:31] Speaker 1: to the question as before bad, is there something that
[1:11:33] Speaker 1: worries you about us? Just if I could just think
[1:11:36] Speaker 1: about Australia at the moment, be selfish, is there do
[1:11:41] Speaker 1: we really need to be worried or is it just
[1:11:43] Speaker 1: something we need to keep eyes on.
[1:11:44] Speaker 2: It's one of those things where I think we'll be fine,
[1:11:48] Speaker 2: but the probability of something catastrophic happening has gone from
[1:11:53] Speaker 2: one percent to now ten percent, right, you know, it's
[1:11:55] Speaker 2: just a much higher chance than it used to be.
[1:11:58] Speaker 2: And so because of that, I think you've got to
[1:12:00] Speaker 2: take dramatic steps to try and make sure that worst
[1:12:03] Speaker 2: case doesn't happen or if it does, so we are
[1:12:06] Speaker 2: cut off in our economy grind so hols, we've got
[1:12:09] Speaker 2: trouble with fuel or not able to get import exports
[1:12:13] Speaker 2: going because we've lost control of our northern waterways, Like
[1:12:16] Speaker 2: what do we need to have set up now so
[1:12:19] Speaker 2: that if that if we encounter that problem, we're going
[1:12:20] Speaker 2: to be in much better shape.
[1:12:22] Speaker 1: Does anyone ever come and talk to you? Do you
[1:12:23] Speaker 1: ever get them apart from this type of environment? Does
[1:12:26] Speaker 1: government ever talked to someone like you, someone's actually been
[1:12:28] Speaker 1: in the theater, like you know what it's about. Just
[1:12:30] Speaker 1: do you ever get contact?
[1:12:32] Speaker 2: Sometimes sometimes Andrew Hasty's a good mate. We talk about
[1:12:36] Speaker 2: this apheir bit. He's got a strong interest in this
[1:12:39] Speaker 2: as well. And I think people who have been have
[1:12:42] Speaker 2: seen war zones.
[1:12:44] Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying.
[1:12:45] Speaker 2: You understand how bad it can get for people, you know,
[1:12:48] Speaker 2: like you don't really want that coming up. I feel
[1:12:50] Speaker 2: like they're not listening to very much. Jim Mullen was
[1:12:52] Speaker 2: another one. Yeah, he was banging in the cage for
[1:12:55] Speaker 2: a long time about the Pacific. And I just don't
[1:12:59] Speaker 2: feel like though lessons have really landed because the budget
[1:13:02] Speaker 2: hasn't changed, that the psychology of the country hasn't changed.
[1:13:07] Speaker 1: Do you think it's because we as a nation they
[1:13:09] Speaker 1: put enough emphasis or pressure on governments to take pay attention,
[1:13:12] Speaker 1: Because I mean a lot of gums these days are
[1:13:14] Speaker 1: pole driven and if they thought the Poles were saying
[1:13:17] Speaker 1: let's do something, I'll guarantee they would do something.
[1:13:20] Speaker 2: That would change. Yeah, yeah, I don't think. I think
[1:13:22] Speaker 2: we're so far removed from a lot of it that
[1:13:24] Speaker 2: we don't think this way. We don't really we don't
[1:13:28] Speaker 2: get touched by war in the way that other countries
[1:13:30] Speaker 2: do in the Northern Hemisphere. But in World War Two
[1:13:33] Speaker 2: we did. We got bombs. You know, my grandma told
[1:13:36] Speaker 2: me she was getting to bomb shellters in person without
[1:13:38] Speaker 2: bombing broom. And that was eighty plus years ago. If
[1:13:42] Speaker 2: it happened again today, they could reach us with no
[1:13:44] Speaker 2: issues at all.
[1:13:45] Speaker 1: Or Summaris come to Sydney Harbor.
[1:13:47] Speaker 2: Sydney Harbor exactly. They are shelling past in Sydney.
[1:13:50] Speaker 1: Harper totally because because where I lived there there was
[1:13:52] Speaker 1: there's an obelisk there which commemorates the net that went
[1:13:57] Speaker 1: from Southead across the north Head Leak across the Mossman tyboy.
[1:14:03] Speaker 1: It was a net we're meant to catch summary stop
[1:14:05] Speaker 1: them from somebody going through it. Again, that's that's only
[1:14:08] Speaker 1: your front door.
[1:14:08] Speaker 2: So what could they do now We've got autonomous things
[1:14:12] Speaker 2: and you know, so we're not as separated from this
[1:14:16] Speaker 2: as we think we are, And I just think that
[1:14:18] Speaker 2: our psychology around it is one where it just needs
[1:14:23] Speaker 2: a little shove so that we can take steps now
[1:14:25] Speaker 2: and be way more prepared later. Not it's not need
[1:14:28] Speaker 2: to panic. It's just we need to be proven about
[1:14:31] Speaker 2: defense capabilities, fuel and oil capabilities, and manufacturing. If we've
[1:14:35] Speaker 2: got those things down, we can be pretty resilient.
[1:14:38] Speaker 1: And budget and budget started allocating more stuff towards these things.
[1:14:42] Speaker 1: So your YouTube's have been going pretty good. What's been
[1:14:45] Speaker 1: flying off the handle? What's what's what's been the bees response?
[1:14:48] Speaker 2: It's funny because when I started, I was going to
[1:14:50] Speaker 2: do a lot of business content, and then I did
[1:14:53] Speaker 2: one on the Chinese fleet that started around I just
[1:14:56] Speaker 2: did if it was like one at night, recorded a
[1:14:58] Speaker 2: short video on it, and a ring made it's how
[1:15:00] Speaker 2: I go, don't don't edit this much because I don't
[1:15:02] Speaker 2: think anyone's going to watch it, And that one really
[1:15:05] Speaker 2: took off, like four hundred thousand views or something. So
[1:15:08] Speaker 2: I thought I'll do a bit more on current affairs
[1:15:10] Speaker 2: and just started talking more about current affairs. And I
[1:15:13] Speaker 2: was a history undergrad and I've always had an interest
[1:15:16] Speaker 2: in it. So I just talk about current affairs that's
[1:15:18] Speaker 2: happening and throwing a few business things occasionally, and yeah,
[1:15:21] Speaker 2: it's just a good, good medium to do it on.
[1:15:24] Speaker 1: You've taken a different path as opposed the typical path
[1:15:27] Speaker 1: of a former soldier. I mean, you've you've got to
[1:15:29] Speaker 1: Wharton business schools and you've got to dig an MBA
[1:15:33] Speaker 1: there or something. But in addition that, you've done some
[1:15:36] Speaker 1: other studies. You worked with one of the one of
[1:15:40] Speaker 1: the big consultancy organizationally McKinsey, and worked McKinsey. I think
[1:15:46] Speaker 1: you've written a book, you're now doing your you're doing
[1:15:51] Speaker 1: your commentary. Just just a fun thing. But it's sort
[1:15:54] Speaker 1: of pretty spot on from what I've seen. Your level
[1:16:01] Speaker 1: of research is not just not just sitting here making
[1:16:06] Speaker 1: stuff up. I mean you're actually in the guts of it.
[1:16:09] Speaker 1: I mean, you've come from that background, but you're in
[1:16:11] Speaker 1: the guts of this stuff, like you're researching these things,
[1:16:13] Speaker 1: probably as a civilian. You know, you're not sort of
[1:16:17] Speaker 1: tapping into the Department of Defense Ron Office, a national
[1:16:19] Speaker 1: intelligence ring like that. Maybe you are, don't know, but
[1:16:23] Speaker 1: I mean, but this is just observational stuff, but based
[1:16:28] Speaker 1: on what you've experienced, as opposed to say something like me,
[1:16:34] Speaker 1: who might be a civilian observation, you're actually a former
[1:16:40] Speaker 1: engaged observational Like you're actually making observations based on your
[1:16:44] Speaker 1: former engagement. In other words, what can be the effect
[1:16:47] Speaker 1: of what I'm seeing based on what I've experienced before?
[1:16:51] Speaker 1: So apart from you know, people looking at this stuff,
[1:16:54] Speaker 1: is it getting any traction? Like the gym Molon stuff
[1:16:57] Speaker 1: was like Andrew Hasty could do you sort of like
[1:17:01] Speaker 1: in that position? Is getting any traction?
[1:17:04] Speaker 2: You mean that the warnings about what could I think
[1:17:07] Speaker 2: it is. I think people are starting to gore, starting
[1:17:10] Speaker 2: to see the direction of the world's heading in and
[1:17:14] Speaker 2: these constant arguments about Australian capabilities not being where they
[1:17:17] Speaker 2: should be. And there's a bit of a mismatch because
[1:17:19] Speaker 2: they're saying, on one hand, yet it is a really
[1:17:21] Speaker 2: dangerous environment, but on the other hand, we're saying we
[1:17:25] Speaker 2: need to raise all these capabilities. But to do it,
[1:17:28] Speaker 2: we're just going to reorganize a defense budget without increasing it,
[1:17:32] Speaker 2: including selling properties or what. It's just they're tinkering at
[1:17:36] Speaker 2: the edges of it.
[1:17:36] Speaker 1: Yeah, just move the deck chairs around, just to move.
[1:17:39] Speaker 2: In debt like it really needs a hard push and
[1:17:42] Speaker 2: they need to find the money from somewhere to do it.
[1:17:44] Speaker 2: That's just a key part of it. It's expensive to
[1:17:47] Speaker 2: do it, and we take plenty of money out there.
[1:17:49] Speaker 2: They can they can find the money.
[1:17:51] Speaker 1: It takes balls, mate, they need starts to do this,
[1:17:53] Speaker 1: or takes.
[1:17:53] Speaker 2: Political capital, which you know maybe some governments don't prioritize it.
[1:17:57] Speaker 2: And and this is where you have to give how
[1:17:59] Speaker 2: to to credit because he committed, I was he forces
[1:18:02] Speaker 2: to his team or in ninety nine, we've been neglected
[1:18:05] Speaker 2: for fifteen plus years after being arm We could barely
[1:18:09] Speaker 2: pull off that mission properly, couldn't deploy it. It was
[1:18:12] Speaker 2: four hundred commas off Darwin and we still could barely
[1:18:15] Speaker 2: deploy there. So he said that's it. We're going to
[1:18:17] Speaker 2: build military back and through a lot of effort, time, money,
[1:18:20] Speaker 2: budget at it and that it took ten years, but
[1:18:23] Speaker 2: we built a pretty good capability out of that.
[1:18:26] Speaker 1: So I don't want to draw it too long, Abo.
[1:18:30] Speaker 1: But there was some evidence that was put out there
[1:18:33] Speaker 1: by Asio maybe six months ago that Iran was behind
[1:18:39] Speaker 1: some of the attacks on the Jewish synagogues and various
[1:18:44] Speaker 1: other things, and I'm sure Asia not saying that just
[1:18:48] Speaker 1: for for political capital. Is they just tell the truth?
[1:18:52] Speaker 1: Do you think that terrorism is a soft form of
[1:18:57] Speaker 1: war against other nations where there's distance between us.
[1:19:01] Speaker 2: Yeah, they will try and influence countries as much as
[1:19:05] Speaker 2: they can without going to war. And it's the Americans
[1:19:08] Speaker 2: are good at this too, that they formed the CIA
[1:19:10] Speaker 2: after World War Two to try and avert really a
[1:19:13] Speaker 2: Third World War, because if you had a functioning CIA
[1:19:16] Speaker 2: before World War Two that could go in and influence
[1:19:18] Speaker 2: the German elections or you know, elevate someone over who
[1:19:24] Speaker 2: eventually came to power in Nazi Germany, you might have
[1:19:28] Speaker 2: a totally different outcome. So even though what they do
[1:19:31] Speaker 2: with interfering in other countries might seem morally bad, if
[1:19:35] Speaker 2: it averts a Third World war, is it is it bad?
[1:19:39] Speaker 2: Or you know, it might be good. So all countries
[1:19:40] Speaker 2: are doing that. Rhan's no different.
[1:19:43] Speaker 1: They're doing it too, perhaps not necessarily averted a war
[1:19:47] Speaker 1: that could be there, trying to influence the war.
[1:19:49] Speaker 2: Exactly, but you know it's all conflict. Yeah, so everyone's
[1:19:53] Speaker 2: doing it to some level. But you know, like boxing,
[1:19:56] Speaker 2: kind of the trick is hid and don't get hit It's.
[1:20:00] Speaker 1: Not always that easy, none that is at all. But
[1:20:04] Speaker 1: do you think that do you do you expect that
[1:20:08] Speaker 1: those cells of a bit like what in a Mossad
[1:20:11] Speaker 1: probably did in Iran ten to fifteen years ago. I
[1:20:14] Speaker 1: think those cells have been well established here for a
[1:20:16] Speaker 1: long time at the month, and we just we just
[1:20:18] Speaker 1: have no sense of it at the moment.
[1:20:20] Speaker 2: I think there are a lot of cells. Hes Boa
[1:20:23] Speaker 2: especially have done it. Iran has done it as well.
[1:20:27] Speaker 2: The Russians have been really good at it. They put
[1:20:29] Speaker 2: people into countries that from a young age and left
[1:20:32] Speaker 2: them there for twenty plus years, only to activate them
[1:20:34] Speaker 2: at a certain point.
[1:20:35] Speaker 1: I'm seeing that Netflix series on that.
[1:20:37] Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's all real. I don't know how effective
[1:20:40] Speaker 2: it is. And a lot of this obviously happens in
[1:20:43] Speaker 2: the shadows and you only hear about it when it
[1:20:45] Speaker 2: goes wrong. But it's definitely a technique. Countries have to
[1:20:48] Speaker 2: try and have agents that are in countries fully integrated,
[1:20:51] Speaker 2: that still operate on their behalf.
[1:20:54] Speaker 1: Now I'm going to walk around the hell was looking
[1:20:57] Speaker 1: at me here? Why they want to talk to me?
[1:20:59] Speaker 1: Well made?
[1:20:59] Speaker 2: I I.
[1:21:02] Speaker 1: Thank you, by the way for your service to our nation,
[1:21:05] Speaker 1: and I don't think enough people in our country thank
[1:21:11] Speaker 1: our form of service people, and that goes cuts across.
[1:21:16] Speaker 1: First just wonders back to people like you who go
[1:21:17] Speaker 1: into other countries and put your life on the line.
[1:21:20] Speaker 1: I want to say thank you for that, bealf all
[1:21:21] Speaker 1: those people who would like to thank you, and I'm
[1:21:24] Speaker 1: saying that, I want to say that loud and proud,
[1:21:26] Speaker 1: So thank you for that. And I really appreciate your
[1:21:29] Speaker 1: insights into today, and I just wish more people will
[1:21:32] Speaker 1: pay attention to people like you. Whether you're right or
[1:21:35] Speaker 1: wrong doesn't matter. Let's be aware and more importantless be prepared.
[1:21:40] Speaker 2: Yeah, no, thanks for having me. Appreciate you giving me
[1:21:42] Speaker 2: the time to talk about it. And yeah, love what
[1:21:45] Speaker 2: you've done with the podcast. It's awesome.
[1:21:47] Speaker 1: Thanks mate,

Shows are listed from Apple Podcasts' charts and directory, and Podcast Index where it is used. Every show and episode belongs to its publisher and plays from the publisher's own feed; this site hosts none of them.