# September 25, 2026 - Week 1 Election Breakdown | Political Capital

An episode of [Political Capital with Rob Shaw](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1553146808), 25 Sep 2026, 22 min.

Audio: https://api.spreaker.com/download/episode/75365513/policap_podcast_2026_09_25.mp3

September 25, 2026 - How did the NDP, Conservatives and Greens do during the first week of the snap provincial election? Our prime panel breaks it all down. Host Rob Shaw is joined by Jeff Ferrier, Jillian Oliver and Angelo Isidorou. Brought to you by Uber Canada.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: Well, hey, everyone, and welcome to Political Capital, your source
[0:14] Speaker 1: for all the latest in B.C. politics. And boy, is
[0:17] Speaker 1: there a lot of latest to get into since our
[0:19] Speaker 1: last show. Yes, indeed, we did have the snap election
[0:22] Speaker 1: call from Premier David Eby. So much has happened. I
[0:26] Speaker 1: encourage you to subscribe to Political Capital daily because, holy man,
[0:30] Speaker 1: A lot of daily activities were covered off there. We
[0:32] Speaker 1: just simply can't get to in the show this week.
[0:36] Speaker 1: But we are going to talk about the election campaign
[0:39] Speaker 1: in detail. We're going to bring in the pod squad.
[0:42] Speaker 1: I'm going to start calling you guys the primetime panel
[0:45] Speaker 1: now because you're political capital prime, I think. Is it?
[0:48] Speaker 1: This tumbleweed is going to come across the screen there,
[0:51] Speaker 1: but that's fine. Primetime panel. Jeff Verrier, Angela Isidoro, Jillian
[0:55] Speaker 1: Oliver are here.
[0:57] Speaker 2: All right.
[0:57] Speaker 1: Okay, let's just kind of talk about the NDP first segment.
[1:00] Speaker 1: conservative second segment and we'll kind of go from there
[1:04] Speaker 1: premier david eby goes to government house on tuesday he
[1:07] Speaker 1: delivers a speech where he talks about a consequential moment
[1:10] Speaker 1: for the province donald trump is a threat starts talking
[1:14] Speaker 1: about wildfires and fire breaks british colombians deserve a choice
[1:18] Speaker 1: and the conservatives are in chaos that is his pitch
[1:21] Speaker 1: to voters uh jillian why don't we start with you
[1:24] Speaker 1: do you think it how do you think that landed
[1:27] Speaker 1: that pitch A.
[1:29] Speaker 3: Bit like a lead balloon.
[1:30] Speaker 4: I don't think I heard one positive response either in
[1:35] Speaker 4: the press or from anybody that I talked to, just
[1:37] Speaker 4: like regular voters. People seem confused, bewildered. They don't understand.
[1:43] Speaker 4: I think most people perceive the federal government to be
[1:46] Speaker 4: responsible for managing the trade.
[1:48] Speaker 3: War and Donald Trump.
[1:49] Speaker 4: And people feel like Mark Carney has kind of got
[1:51] Speaker 4: that under control right now. and are very happy with
[1:55] Speaker 4: his direction. On the provincial side, it's cost of living.
[1:59] Speaker 4: And the premier has not come forward with any clear
[2:03] Speaker 4: message on what they're going to do about that or
[2:05] Speaker 4: any reason why he needs an election to address that
[2:08] Speaker 4: issue when he already had a majority.
[2:11] Speaker 3: One person, regular voter.
[2:13] Speaker 4: Said to me, when I mentioned that there's an election,
[2:16] Speaker 4: he said, but he hasn't done anything yet. And I
[2:18] Speaker 4: think that's sort of like the reaction that most people have.
[2:21] Speaker 4: So it's not landing well. It's really marked looking at
[2:26] Speaker 4: how strong EB appeared at UBCM when he was talking
[2:29] Speaker 4: about the issues compared to this week. He looks very shaky,
[2:33] Speaker 4: filled with regret. And I have to imagine that's a
[2:35] Speaker 4: bit where his head's at, but he's in it now.
[2:38] Speaker 1: He is in it now. Angela, what did you think
[2:40] Speaker 1: of the framing and the sort of launch by the premier?
[2:45] Speaker 5: Well, you know what they say, a week is a
[2:46] Speaker 5: lifetime in politics, and it's certainly the case here. I mean,
[2:49] Speaker 5: just over a week ago, Carrie Lynn Finlay was the
[2:52] Speaker 5: leader of the party. The polls were not particularly positive,
[2:55] Speaker 5: and David Eby was heading towards a snap election that
[2:58] Speaker 5: I think ultimately he couldn't put off. It was the
[3:00] Speaker 5: inertia of planning for it, municipal candidates dropping out to
[3:06] Speaker 5: run for him. You know, you already made UBCM and
[3:09] Speaker 5: all the municipalities upset. He was going to call this
[3:11] Speaker 5: election no matter what. But then everything rapidly changed. Kerry
[3:15] Speaker 5: Lynn resigned. Lorne Dirksen is unanimously selected as the leader.
[3:20] Speaker 5: We'll talk about this poll probably in a minute, but
[3:22] Speaker 5: he has a very solid launch, reasonable character. It almost
[3:26] Speaker 5: seems as though the NDP and the EB's launch was
[3:30] Speaker 5: preparing to run against Kerry Lynn Finlay, particularly with the
[3:33] Speaker 5: focus on Donald Trump. What they didn't see coming clearly
[3:37] Speaker 5: is that Lorne Dirksen is not Kerry Lynn Finlay, Lorne
[3:39] Speaker 5: Dirksen is not Donald Trump. And when Lorne Dirksen is
[3:41] Speaker 5: asked about Donald Trump, He calls him a bully. So
[3:44] Speaker 5: if you're going to stake your entire election on that issue,
[3:48] Speaker 5: it's going to go off like a lead balloon, especially when,
[3:50] Speaker 5: you know, over 50% of the population is $ 200 away
[3:54] Speaker 5: from insolvency.
[3:56] Speaker 1: That's two lead balloons, Jeff. What kind of balloon would
[3:59] Speaker 1: you describe this as?
[4:00] Speaker 2: I think it's been a challenging week for the government
[4:03] Speaker 2: on its election call. I think they're focusing in their
[4:08] Speaker 2: announcements on on the right issues. They're focusing on health care.
[4:12] Speaker 2: They're focusing on affordability and availability of housing. That was
[4:17] Speaker 2: today's announcement. They talked about jobs and paychecks on Thursday. Yesterday,
[4:24] Speaker 2: it's hard to keep track of the days. It feels
[4:26] Speaker 2: like it's been a month already in this election campaign.
[4:30] Speaker 2: But they're having challenges with the framing of the issue
[4:32] Speaker 2: around Donald Trump. I think they've been faced with a
[4:37] Speaker 2: headwind that most governments who call elections earlier faced with,
[4:41] Speaker 2: and that is the timing of the election call. I
[4:46] Speaker 2: think what they're banking on now is that that's going
[4:48] Speaker 2: to slowly fade into the background. And as folks get
[4:52] Speaker 2: more engaged in the election campaign, that it's going to
[4:55] Speaker 2: be less about people being angry about when the election
[4:59] Speaker 2: was called and more about the choice in front of them,
[5:02] Speaker 2: which is stability with David Eby or risk with the
[5:04] Speaker 2: new government at a time when Trump is an issue,
[5:08] Speaker 2: when our economy and our jobs are all at stake.
[5:11] Speaker 2: And we'll see. I think that will be the story
[5:13] Speaker 2: of the campaign.
[5:14] Speaker 1: Jeff, do you think we'll go around here again? Do
[5:17] Speaker 1: you think this campaign was kind of built on the
[5:20] Speaker 1: idea of Carrie Lynn Finlay, like Angelo said, and that
[5:24] Speaker 1: it's not the square peg isn't going into the round
[5:27] Speaker 1: hole with Lauren Dirksen on that particular framing?
[5:32] Speaker 2: There might be some of that. I think, though, if
[5:35] Speaker 2: you're an NDP strategist getting ready for an election, you
[5:40] Speaker 2: have to assume that the conservatives faced with election, faced
[5:44] Speaker 2: with an opportunity to get power, are going to come together,
[5:47] Speaker 2: that they're going to put aside some of the differences
[5:51] Speaker 2: that they've had, deal with their leadership issues and come
[5:55] Speaker 2: into the campaign in fighting form. I still think, and
[6:00] Speaker 2: I think the campaign believes as well, that with Dirksen
[6:07] Speaker 2: in charge of the party, that doesn't change the fact
[6:11] Speaker 2: that the grassroots of that party voted for culture warriors, one, two,
[6:18] Speaker 2: in the campaign, that there are candidates in this election
[6:21] Speaker 2: campaign who were staunch Carrie Lynn Finlay, more extreme right candidates,
[6:28] Speaker 2: And I think you'll see the government try and prosecute
[6:31] Speaker 2: that through the campaign. If it works, we'll see.
[6:35] Speaker 1: Angelo, the risk and the reaction to the premier going
[6:40] Speaker 1: two years early, like right smack in the middle of
[6:42] Speaker 1: the mandate rather than just towards the end or that
[6:47] Speaker 1: type of thing. Have you seen the party doing your
[6:50] Speaker 1: kind of view a good job in explaining why it's
[6:54] Speaker 1: so early? And what is the risk if the NDP
[6:57] Speaker 1: can't kind of land that question?
[7:01] Speaker 5: No, because the issue is that they had a majority.
[7:04] Speaker 5: They already had a governing majority. They could govern easily.
[7:07] Speaker 5: They could call a by-election for Joan's seat and fill
[7:09] Speaker 5: that seat as well. So it was never a problem.
[7:12] Speaker 5: What's going on here is the United States is having
[7:15] Speaker 5: their midterm elections, and in all likelihood, the Republicans will
[7:18] Speaker 5: struggle to hold on to the House and Senate. And
[7:20] Speaker 5: after that, Trump will likely be cauterized to some degree
[7:24] Speaker 5: when it comes to tariffs. That is issue number one
[7:26] Speaker 5: for EB. Issue number two is that he likely saw
[7:29] Speaker 5: an opportunity in the weakness of the Conservatives leading up
[7:32] Speaker 5: to this moment and thought, well, my own leadership is
[7:35] Speaker 5: potentially weak and this may be a second breath here.
[7:38] Speaker 5: So I think he took the risk, but I don't
[7:40] Speaker 5: think the risk is going to pay off. And I
[7:41] Speaker 5: think it's very easy for the NDP to fall into
[7:44] Speaker 5: the same trap as last time of saying, well, you know,
[7:48] Speaker 5: these guys have a candidate here or there that said X,
[7:51] Speaker 5: Y and Z on Facebook years ago. I think ultimately
[7:54] Speaker 5: the province is hurting even more now than it did
[7:57] Speaker 5: two years ago. Hospitals are closing their doors more now.
[8:00] Speaker 5: Affordability is worse now. I mean, these are issues that
[8:03] Speaker 5: have only gotten worse in the past two years. So ultimately,
[8:07] Speaker 5: when it comes to the issue of, you know, Trumpian
[8:10] Speaker 5: candidates or anything of the sort, you point to the
[8:13] Speaker 5: leader and the leader says, you know, U.S. booze is
[8:16] Speaker 5: staying off the shelves. I don't care what, you know,
[8:19] Speaker 5: some candidate in Timbuktu has to say or Salmon Arms. Uh,
[8:23] Speaker 5: Lauren is taking a very aggressive and assertive approach and saying,
[8:26] Speaker 5: I am the leader I'm running for premier. And this
[8:30] Speaker 5: is what we stand for.
[8:31] Speaker 2: Salmon arm, salmon arm. That's a good place. Don't talk
[8:34] Speaker 2: it down. Angelo Salmon.
[8:36] Speaker 1: Is it that's different from Salmo, right? Oh man, I'm
[8:39] Speaker 1: getting inflamed for this one, but Salmo Salmo and salmon
[8:42] Speaker 1: arm are different. So, uh, Jillian, um, what did you
[8:45] Speaker 1: watch the premier, uh, do a bunch of events from
[8:48] Speaker 1: the launch to, to different things. What did you make
[8:51] Speaker 1: of his sort of performance? This week as a campaigner,
[8:56] Speaker 1: as the holder of the sort of NDP brand, as
[8:59] Speaker 1: the prosecutor of the need for this election. What did
[9:02] Speaker 1: you think?
[9:03] Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it was it was weak.
[9:05] Speaker 4: And like I said, it was it was very stark
[9:08] Speaker 4: compared to his performance at UBCM, which I thought was
[9:11] Speaker 4: really strong, even when he was facing tough questions. from
[9:15] Speaker 4: the UBCM chair about why he was calling the election.
[9:18] Speaker 4: He sounded very forthright and convinced that this was necessary
[9:23] Speaker 4: and it was convincing. And I think EB is someone
[9:26] Speaker 4: who struggles to fake it. When he really believes something,
[9:30] Speaker 4: he is very strong, comes off well, seems like a
[9:35] Speaker 4: real leader. This week, I think it's a real tell
[9:38] Speaker 4: that even he is not convinced that this is a
[9:40] Speaker 4: good idea. Because he just sounds like he's faking it
[9:44] Speaker 4: and it doesn't sound authentic. They've got to find a
[9:46] Speaker 4: way to dig in to his real reason for wanting
[9:50] Speaker 4: to lead, not just reacting. I think they've gotten stuck
[9:55] Speaker 4: in a place where a lot of longer serving governments
[9:58] Speaker 4: get where they're just sort of managing issues reactively.
[10:00] Speaker 3: To things. They need to find a way to get
[10:01] Speaker 3: back to.
[10:02] Speaker 4: Their vision, to sort of like their reason for being,
[10:05] Speaker 4: instead of just playing politics and managing the issues, because
[10:09] Speaker 4: I think it's really plain for everyone to see.
[10:12] Speaker 1: Struggles to fake it. That is spectacular. I'm you sort
[10:16] Speaker 1: of distilled it down there. I have no offense to
[10:18] Speaker 1: you other two guys, but I'm always impressed by Jillian
[10:20] Speaker 1: because she always manages to like, I live, we all
[10:23] Speaker 1: live in this world. And then I just hear her
[10:24] Speaker 1: say something like that. And I'm like, that's it. That
[10:27] Speaker 1: is it. He struggles to fake it. Like he's great
[10:29] Speaker 1: on the issues that he believes in housing reform. And like,
[10:32] Speaker 1: he can prosecute the heck out of things, but when
[10:34] Speaker 1: he's not really all in, it doesn't, It doesn't go,
[10:39] Speaker 1: I guess. Anyways, sorry. That was really good. Jillian, you
[10:42] Speaker 1: blew my mind live.
[10:44] Speaker 3: I slept through the night last night, which doesn't happen
[10:46] Speaker 3: a lot.
[10:46] Speaker 1: Jeff, you want to just quickly before break?
[10:48] Speaker 2: Just say, having a cold, having a cold doesn't help either.
[10:51] Speaker 1: Okay. All right. Let's do a quick break here. When
[10:53] Speaker 1: we come back, we'll talk about the BC Conservatives and
[10:56] Speaker 1: how they are starting their electric campaign. Well, welcome back.
[10:59] Speaker 1: I guess we should say here that BC Conservative leader,
[11:02] Speaker 1: Carrie Lynn Finley, quit the party since if you watched
[11:06] Speaker 1: last week's show, you would have no idea that this occurred,
[11:08] Speaker 1: but in the avalanche of other things that occurred. Left
[11:11] Speaker 1: is leader of the Conservative Party on Sunday. The premier
[11:15] Speaker 1: called the snap election on Tuesday. The Conservatives have essentially,
[11:19] Speaker 1: we use this analogy during the 2024 election, we'll use
[11:23] Speaker 1: it again here, are building the airplane in the air
[11:25] Speaker 1: again with the party, bringing everything together. We're going to
[11:28] Speaker 1: go to you first on this, Angelo, because you've been
[11:30] Speaker 1: watching it. Just try to explain to people here, What
[11:36] Speaker 1: is going on at the Conservative headquarters? They seem to
[11:38] Speaker 1: have brought a whole bunch of people together to stand
[11:42] Speaker 1: up an election campaign, but it's not visible from the outside.
[11:47] Speaker 1: So how would you describe it to people, what's happened?
[11:50] Speaker 5: You know, what's funny about Conservatives as a whole is
[11:53] Speaker 5: we fight amongst ourselves, but nothing unites us like an
[11:57] Speaker 5: existential threat of the left. And that's exactly what's happening now.
[12:00] Speaker 5: As soon as there was a prospect of an election...
[12:03] Speaker 5: you pretty much had this Avengers team come together of
[12:06] Speaker 5: every single leadership campaign, most of the leadership contestants and
[12:11] Speaker 5: staff to basically come together behind Lorne Dirksen. Lorne Dirksen
[12:15] Speaker 5: was appointed unanimously by both caucus and the board of
[12:18] Speaker 5: directors as the interim leader. His first move was to
[12:22] Speaker 5: immediately bring back six MLAs, three of whom were fired
[12:25] Speaker 5: by Carrie Lynn Finley, three of whom quit but had
[12:28] Speaker 5: not yet joined Peter Milibar's party. From then, he immediately
[12:33] Speaker 5: began negotiations to essentially have the entirety of Peter's party,
[12:38] Speaker 5: with the exception of one, rejoin the Conservative Party. And
[12:42] Speaker 5: that all happened in the span of hours. So everybody
[12:45] Speaker 5: got into a room together, put their differences aside and said,
[12:48] Speaker 5: you know what, we agree on 85 to 90% of things.
[12:53] Speaker 5: So let's focus on the province and the people of
[12:55] Speaker 5: the province. So it's a remarkable turnaround. And we saw
[12:58] Speaker 5: that at the press conference where you had not only Lorne,
[13:01] Speaker 5: not only Trevor Halford, but also Caroline Elliott, Ian Black,
[13:05] Speaker 5: and a gambit of other MLAs together announcing, you know,
[13:10] Speaker 5: the plan to fight this election and to form government.
[13:14] Speaker 1: It is remarkable, Jeff. At the same time, though, that
[13:19] Speaker 1: the ghost of Carrie Lynn Finley still kind of hangs
[13:21] Speaker 1: over the conservatives when it's the framing is being done
[13:24] Speaker 1: by some of the opponents. But what do you think,
[13:27] Speaker 1: like you've worked in oppositions before, like the collapse of
[13:30] Speaker 1: a leader right before an election and then this kind
[13:33] Speaker 1: of like on the fly campaign is, what does that
[13:37] Speaker 1: mean for the election, do you think?
[13:39] Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I've worked in campaigns where at the outset
[13:42] Speaker 2: of the campaign, an opposition party that I worked for
[13:47] Speaker 2: took a lead over the governing party unexpectedly. And that's
[13:51] Speaker 2: a critical part of the campaign. Because now, in addition
[13:55] Speaker 2: to getting points by default, you need to convince people
[13:59] Speaker 2: that you're ready to serve, ready to govern and govern
[14:02] Speaker 2: capably in this space. And in that regard, Lorne Dirksen
[14:06] Speaker 2: faces many challenges. He's unproven. He's largely unknown. Don't know
[14:12] Speaker 2: what his policy stances are on the record now. All
[14:18] Speaker 2: that's known is the policies put forward by Carolyn Finley and, uh, are,
[14:24] Speaker 2: are standing now is what the party, uh, stands for
[14:27] Speaker 2: in the minds of most. And he may not be
[14:30] Speaker 2: premier for long if he wins, uh, because the grassroots
[14:34] Speaker 2: that chose Carolyn Finley and, uh, Caroline Ellett won two, uh, culture, uh,
[14:41] Speaker 2: warriors will choose permanent leader. And, uh, there is the
[14:45] Speaker 2: prospect that they might choose someone else, not Lauren Dirksen.
[14:48] Speaker 2: And we might see a return to the chaos and infighting.
[14:51] Speaker 2: And that's what the conservatives are going to have to, to, uh,
[14:55] Speaker 2: address in the days and weeks ahead.
[14:58] Speaker 1: Technically the party said they would just make him the
[15:00] Speaker 1: permanent leader.
[15:01] Speaker 2: But, uh, they said they would take steps to deal
[15:04] Speaker 2: with the constitutional requirements that might require the vote to happen.
[15:08] Speaker 2: So it's, it's, we'll see.
[15:10] Speaker 1: Not a lawyer. Don't know how that works, but just, yeah.
[15:13] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[15:13] Speaker 1: Okay.
[15:14] Speaker 2: Might not even win. Who knows?
[15:16] Speaker 1: Jillian, uh, this guy out of nowhere becoming conservative leader is,
[15:20] Speaker 1: the blank slate, like Jeff just mentioned, we don't know
[15:23] Speaker 1: a lot about them. And the conservatives putting together, as
[15:27] Speaker 1: Angela put it, the Avengers, although I'd like to know
[15:30] Speaker 1: who is the Hulk and who is Hawkeye, because those
[15:33] Speaker 1: are opposite ends of the power spectrum and the Avengers.
[15:36] Speaker 1: But what do you make of all that?
[15:38] Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think it's surprised me.
[15:40] Speaker 4: I think that when you have an election in front
[15:44] Speaker 4: of you, parties do come together, but it has been
[15:46] Speaker 4: even more cohesive than I would have imagined. I would
[15:49] Speaker 4: have thought that there would be a little bit more
[15:52] Speaker 4: of like a bit of a membership revolt or a
[15:54] Speaker 4: little bit more grumbling.
[15:55] Speaker 3: We've seen a little bit of bleed to 1BC, but
[15:58] Speaker 3: not a lot.
[15:59] Speaker 4: I think that like most even somewhat reasonable people recognize
[16:03] Speaker 4: that there's a lot of problems with 1BC and with
[16:06] Speaker 4: associating with them. Right now, I think it is still
[16:11] Speaker 4: the easiest time. We saw the NDP come out with
[16:13] Speaker 4: some kind of attacks on things that the different MLAs
[16:17] Speaker 4: have said, but they've kind of fallen flat because of
[16:21] Speaker 4: all of the other stuff we've been talking about has
[16:23] Speaker 4: been the headlines. But there is some really problematic stuff.
[16:25] Speaker 4: We had just like, we're not talking about old social
[16:27] Speaker 4: media posts. Just last week, MLA Sheldon Clare had a
[16:30] Speaker 4: leaked message saying that elected officials should be hung. Some
[16:35] Speaker 4: really disturbing stuff. And when you are running for government
[16:38] Speaker 4: and voters get closer to the reality of that, these
[16:41] Speaker 4: are people that could be in cabinet and in real
[16:42] Speaker 4: positions of power. And I think There still is a
[16:45] Speaker 4: long ways to go to see if that stuff kind
[16:47] Speaker 4: of breaks through.
[16:49] Speaker 3: We did have a lot of that last time.
[16:50] Speaker 4: I think the NDP still have more reasons to be
[16:52] Speaker 4: nervous because, you know, there was a lot of problematic
[16:55] Speaker 4: stuff last cycle and it fell super flat in a
[16:58] Speaker 4: more favorable environment to the NDP.
[17:00] Speaker 3: So we'll see.
[17:02] Speaker 4: But for now, it's kind of all up in the air.
[17:05] Speaker 4: It's like, like I said last week, it's a big experiment.
[17:08] Speaker 4: We haven't had an election with these conditions before.
[17:11] Speaker 1: Yeah. Still a markedly better position for the Conservatives to
[17:15] Speaker 1: be in from last week's show when we were talking
[17:17] Speaker 1: about it. So that's an incredible, incredible change within just
[17:23] Speaker 1: seven days. OK, let's take a quick break. When we
[17:24] Speaker 1: come back, we're going to kind of wrap all this together,
[17:26] Speaker 1: talk a bit about some polling and go from there.
[17:29] Speaker 1: We'll be back in a minute. All right, welcome back.
[17:31] Speaker 1: We're talking about the first big poll of the election campaign.
[17:33] Speaker 1: Threw everything into a bit of chaos here. The BC
[17:35] Speaker 1: Conservatives jumping to an eight point lead or 10 points,
[17:38] Speaker 1: depending on how you do the math, Jeff, amongst decided
[17:41] Speaker 1: voters and a 43% approval in the last two days. Well,
[17:46] Speaker 1: the NDP fell down to 35%, the Greens and others
[17:49] Speaker 1: in the same place. That has been like a small
[17:54] Speaker 1: explosion in the campaign here. Jeff, what do you think
[17:56] Speaker 1: of this?
[17:57] Speaker 2: Certainly has people talking. Right now it's one poll. There's
[18:01] Speaker 2: some interesting crosstabs that might give some pause. And we'll
[18:05] Speaker 2: expect some more polls soon and we'll see if it's
[18:08] Speaker 2: a trend. Obviously, if you're the NDP, you're concerned by
[18:12] Speaker 2: the numbers. It's not what you want at the outset.
[18:14] Speaker 2: Often there's a small bump down to start a campaign
[18:19] Speaker 2: of your government. This is bigger than that if the
[18:22] Speaker 2: trend holds true. If you're conservatives, I think right now
[18:25] Speaker 2: you're afraid that maybe you've peaked too soon. because it
[18:28] Speaker 2: makes it so that voters who are upset about the
[18:31] Speaker 2: election call, which seems to be what's driving the numbers
[18:34] Speaker 2: right now, can get that anger out. And then, you know,
[18:38] Speaker 2: if you have a poll here that says the majority
[18:40] Speaker 2: of people don't believe that the B.C. Conservative Party is
[18:43] Speaker 2: ready to govern, and that becomes the ballot question, that's
[18:47] Speaker 2: what gets on people's minds, it might push those conservative
[18:52] Speaker 2: numbers down because of that different dynamic. We'll see how
[18:55] Speaker 2: this plays out.
[18:56] Speaker 1: Angelo, what do you think?
[18:59] Speaker 5: It is one poll. I think we need to see
[19:01] Speaker 5: if this is going to be a true trend or
[19:02] Speaker 5: whether this is an outlier. The number that really stands
[19:05] Speaker 5: out to me is a double digit lead in Metro
[19:08] Speaker 5: Vancouver for the Conservatives.
[19:09] Speaker 2: That is really where the seats and the votes are.
[19:13] Speaker 5: Due to voter efficiency, the Conservatives can even be ahead
[19:16] Speaker 5: in some polls, but it may not necessarily mean a
[19:18] Speaker 5: majority government. In this case, it would absolutely mean a
[19:21] Speaker 5: majority government. This is probably the best poll the Conservatives
[19:24] Speaker 5: have ever had. at least since the resurrection. I can't
[19:27] Speaker 5: speak for 1926. But it is just one poll. I think, again,
[19:32] Speaker 5: Lauren has done a very good job at bringing the
[19:35] Speaker 5: team together. So you get rid of most of Centre
[19:38] Speaker 5: BC's vote split issue. 1BC is not really taking off
[19:42] Speaker 5: at all. So I think the Conservatives are now united.
[19:45] Speaker 5: But to Jeff's point, you need to sustain it. Now
[19:48] Speaker 5: people are paying attention. You need to present a professional,
[19:51] Speaker 5: serious campaign that's actually ready to govern, that shows that
[19:54] Speaker 5: it's ready to govern, and that gives voters permission to
[19:57] Speaker 5: vote for you.
[19:59] Speaker 1: Gillian, what's your thoughts?
[20:01] Speaker 4: Um, well, I think it kind of, it takes us
[20:02] Speaker 4: back to a lot of the polls that we saw
[20:03] Speaker 4: before all of this mess with Finley hit. So in
[20:06] Speaker 4: some ways it makes sense, but definitely we'll still be
[20:08] Speaker 4: watching to see if it's a trend. Um, some interesting
[20:11] Speaker 4: numbers for the greens here. They're climbing up on Vancouver Island,
[20:15] Speaker 4: which is where they're sort of targeting their seats. Um,
[20:17] Speaker 4: leader announced that she's going to be running in an
[20:19] Speaker 4: incumbent Lee held riding and Spanish North.
[20:21] Speaker 3: In the islands.
[20:22] Speaker 4: Um, it's a double-edged sword for them because when the
[20:25] Speaker 4: conservatives go up, progressive voters get more worried about vote split.
[20:28] Speaker 3: Um, But the NDP plays that every time.
[20:30] Speaker 4: And it's going to be so interesting to see if
[20:32] Speaker 4: that falls a little bit more flat this time now
[20:35] Speaker 4: that there's more fatigue and if progressive voters are still
[20:37] Speaker 4: going to hold their nose and vote for the NDP
[20:39] Speaker 4: or if they're going to kind of want to punish
[20:40] Speaker 4: EB for throwing us all into this mess.
[20:43] Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah.
[20:44] Speaker 1: I'll have to watch the Greens for sure on that. OK, well,
[20:47] Speaker 1: so much. We didn't even mention that the election is
[20:49] Speaker 1: actually on October the 24th and the municipal election is
[20:52] Speaker 1: the week before. So get ready for Lawn signs everywhere
[20:57] Speaker 1: in the province. Sinapalooza will be up. And we'll be
[21:01] Speaker 1: back next week with breaking down what will undoubtedly be
[21:06] Speaker 1: a lot of news from the campaign trail. Also subscribe
[21:08] Speaker 1: to Political Capital Daily to get your daily updates there
[21:12] Speaker 1: as well. Thanks to the panel, the primetime panel. We'll
[21:14] Speaker 1: see if that takes off. For being here and thank
[21:17] Speaker 1: you for watching. We'll be back next week with all
[21:19] Speaker 1: the latest in BC politics here on Political Capital.

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