# Sharp or Square - NFL Week 2 bets: Eagles-Chiefs, Jets-Bills, Giants-Cowboys, Bears-Lions & more

An episode of [The Colin Cowherd Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1551365571), 10 Sep 2025, 1 h 20 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/arttrk.com/p/D5CA5/pscrb.fm/rss/p/prfx.byspotify.com/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/291fe8ed-f80d-4107-9ee1-b34c015266d0/b6d3d0e9-5294-48d7-8f3b-b353013e5a2e/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=e829cf60-fc06-4d61-8691-ae330034683e

Expert bettor Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter check the latest football lines and start making their bets for all the big NFL Week 2 matchups: Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills, New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions, New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks vs Pittsburgh Steelers, and more. All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet Timeline: 02:00 - Intro 03:15 - Contest info 05:07 - Commanders-Packers 08:48 - Jaguars-Bengals 14:04 - Patriots-Dolphins 22:22 - 49ers-Saints 27:26 - Browns-Ravens 33:42 - Giants-Cowboys 39:57 - Bears-Lions 47:04 - Bills-Jets 52:29 - Seahawks-Steelers 1:02:15 - Broncos-Colts 1:04:23 - Panthers-Cardinals 1:07:26 - Rams-Titans 1:10:41 - Eagles-Chiefs 1:15:35 - Falcons-Vikings 1:19:07 - Buccaneers-Texans 1:22:31 - Chargers-Raiders See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet We
[0:04] Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
[0:07] Speaker 1: betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the
[0:12] Speaker 1: wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman, I am
[0:16] Speaker 1: joined as always bind my co homes might be at that.
[0:19] Speaker 1: My companion, Michael Padre professional better. Simon Hunt, Hello, so
[0:25] Speaker 1: am in Chad?
[0:27] Speaker 2: How are we doing?
[0:28] Speaker 1: My brother? Listen? You sound so much better than you
[0:32] Speaker 1: did when I spoke to you yesterday at like five
[0:34] Speaker 1: in the afternoon, when it may have been the first
[0:36] Speaker 1: time you were sleeping in about forty eight hours. Great
[0:42] Speaker 1: first week, Great first week working with our friends at
[0:47] Speaker 1: the Volume who just crushed our launch across audio, video, social,
[0:53] Speaker 1: Great first week with listeners and watchers old and new. Simon,
[1:01] Speaker 1: we're generally a top ten sports podcast right now, which
[1:05] Speaker 1: is insane. Great first week betting when four and one
[1:09] Speaker 1: in our contest plays overall, winning week for both of
[1:13] Speaker 1: us across the board. I think with the one, I
[1:17] Speaker 1: got some criticism, I got some feedback, which is a
[1:20] Speaker 1: gift and we like it. So we do need to
[1:22] Speaker 1: do a better job of letting people know how to
[1:25] Speaker 1: find those picks. And being clear of what they are.
[1:30] Speaker 1: So here's how it's going to go. I know we
[1:31] Speaker 1: have some confusion this past week part of the kinks
[1:34] Speaker 1: that we're working out and sort of the crazy transition
[1:37] Speaker 1: onto the volume, but we will go. We will give
[1:41] Speaker 1: our final five picks in our Sunday morning show. That
[1:46] Speaker 1: is where you can get them. You're going to be
[1:48] Speaker 1: able to get that on YouTube. You're going to be
[1:50] Speaker 1: able to get that in your audio feeds. It's posted
[1:54] Speaker 1: in the morning with plenty of time to listen or
[1:58] Speaker 1: watch and get with those fun five picks are the contest.
[2:03] Speaker 1: We are playing in locks lines on Wednesdays, so we
[2:08] Speaker 1: are going to be playing off of those lines. Some confusion,
[2:10] Speaker 1: how do we get Baltimore plus one and a half
[2:13] Speaker 1: in the contest when the game closed minus one? The
[2:16] Speaker 1: contest we play in lines lock on Wednesday. If we
[2:21] Speaker 1: make it Thursday night selection, we will let people know
[2:25] Speaker 1: on the Thursday show. On the Sunday show that we
[2:28] Speaker 1: will let people know via social Sorry for the confusion,
[2:32] Speaker 1: All right, Simon, you won the Sharper Square segment forgot
[2:36] Speaker 1: I think you at Tennessee I ad Miami, which we
[2:40] Speaker 1: will get to. We won Brass balls, and Simon says,
[2:43] Speaker 1: we lost Chad Love's love, we lost rock in a
[2:46] Speaker 1: hard place, brutal beat with the Ravens survivor. We had
[2:50] Speaker 1: Danver who definitely made us earn it, don't forget. You
[2:53] Speaker 1: can get the show Sharper Square on YouTube. Go subscribe
[2:56] Speaker 1: like the video. While you're at it. You can also
[2:58] Speaker 1: subscribe to Sharper Square on Apple, Pop, Spotify, et cetera.
[3:01] Speaker 1: All right, this is our Tuesday show. We're going to
[3:02] Speaker 1: review the entire slate. Let's get after it. Thursday Night Football,
[3:08] Speaker 1: Washington at green Bay, Green Bay three and a half
[3:10] Speaker 1: point favorite. Look, Packers were pretty awesome against the Lions
[3:15] Speaker 1: last week. There are always two stories to this, right,
[3:19] Speaker 1: the Lions were not effective offensively. Part of that was
[3:22] Speaker 1: their own undoing. Part of that was the Packers pressure.
[3:25] Speaker 1: Micah Parsons only played half the snaps. I think he
[3:28] Speaker 1: played twenty nine. At the sixty five snaps, he had
[3:32] Speaker 1: a sack and three pressures, including one that led to
[3:34] Speaker 1: an interception. Simon, like, you nailed the Commander's analysis. Against
[3:41] Speaker 1: the Giants, Jade and Daniels would be able to neutralize
[3:43] Speaker 1: their pressure, but he was generally mediocre. So what are
[3:49] Speaker 1: your thoughts here right now? I don't have a strong
[3:51] Speaker 1: opinion on this. I'd probably lean Packers just because home
[3:54] Speaker 1: teams have a little bit of an advantage in the
[3:56] Speaker 1: short week on Thursday night historically.
[3:59] Speaker 2: Yeah, that's how look at this one.
[4:00] Speaker 3: It's like, I actually really like the Packers and it's
[4:02] Speaker 3: just because they're at home, short week for Washington, and
[4:06] Speaker 3: I think we're both in the same page. Our fear
[4:08] Speaker 3: with the Packers is are we not overvaluing them at
[4:10] Speaker 3: this point where it's first we are you know, they
[4:13] Speaker 3: had probably until Josh Allen's game, the biggest win in
[4:17] Speaker 3: my opinion of that Sunday where it's like that was impressive,
[4:22] Speaker 3: right because they've been playing in my opinion that great.
[4:25] Speaker 3: They were just that dominant though that even on the
[4:27] Speaker 3: day they didn't have their a game offensively or defensively,
[4:29] Speaker 3: they pretty much did whatever they wanted on both sides.
[4:32] Speaker 2: Of the ball.
[4:32] Speaker 3: So yeah, this is really about the line hard Rock
[4:36] Speaker 3: right now is you know, in New Jersey it's minus three,
[4:40] Speaker 3: you know, minus one twenty on Green Bay. I'll take
[4:43] Speaker 3: that value because, like Chad said, it's it's the home team,
[4:46] Speaker 3: like we we love dogs here, but on Thursday night.
[4:49] Speaker 3: I do adjust to it. I do like taking the favorites,
[4:51] Speaker 3: and I do like taking that key numbers. So if
[4:54] Speaker 3: you're someone out there you're like, why I want to
[4:55] Speaker 3: take Washington three and a half? Yeah, there's shop around.
[4:58] Speaker 3: There's three and a halfs out there. Hard might go back
[5:00] Speaker 3: to three and a half. It's I get your position right.
[5:03] Speaker 3: It's Daniels as a dog greater than three. It's been
[5:06] Speaker 3: pretty profitable in his young career at that number. But
[5:09] Speaker 3: I just think this Green Bay team, if they can
[5:12] Speaker 3: just keep it rolling, they're just such a better team
[5:15] Speaker 3: altogether than Washington. Right Washington, it's it's really questionable about
[5:21] Speaker 3: their offensive line, as good as they were in some
[5:23] Speaker 3: aspects locked against the Giants, you know, they have some
[5:26] Speaker 3: young guys up front and some new faces on their
[5:28] Speaker 3: offensive line, and you did see Daniels moved out of
[5:30] Speaker 3: the pocket a lot, and you know, struggle moving the
[5:33] Speaker 3: ball downfield. So yeah, Chet, I'm right there with you.
[5:36] Speaker 3: It's if we're going Green Bay here, I'd take the three.
[5:39] Speaker 3: I don't think there's been our contest. I'm assuming this
[5:41] Speaker 3: will be three and a half in the contest.
[5:43] Speaker 1: Here's what was interesting to me, about the Commanders because
[5:47] Speaker 1: I did a little bit of deep dive on this
[5:48] Speaker 1: game yesterday, Like they weren't awesome. Jaden Daniels wasn't great,
[5:55] Speaker 1: but they were just so much more talented and the
[5:57] Speaker 1: Giants were so incompetent. Jake and Daniels had multiple drives
[6:02] Speaker 1: in that game where he had second and very long
[6:06] Speaker 1: second and fifteen second and nineteen and within two plays
[6:11] Speaker 1: he was converting that into first downs and everything about
[6:16] Speaker 1: him nothing seems chaotic. It all seems doable, right. There's
[6:21] Speaker 1: just like some quarterbacks. We saw this a little bit
[6:24] Speaker 1: with Lamar before the chaos of the end, where it's
[6:29] Speaker 1: so scary to bet against them because they can convert
[6:31] Speaker 1: in the most challenging of situations. So I get why
[6:35] Speaker 1: people would want to lean into the Commanders. Right now,
[6:38] Speaker 1: I'm just leaning into the team at home that's a
[6:42] Speaker 1: field goal favorite.
[6:44] Speaker 2: Yep, right there with you, all right.
[6:48] Speaker 1: This is a really interesting game to me. Jackson Villa Cincinnati.
[6:53] Speaker 1: Cincinnati is a three point favorite at hard Rock, and
[6:56] Speaker 1: it had been trending towards that number. Opened at three
[7:00] Speaker 1: and a half and has been going to actually opened
[7:03] Speaker 1: it five and a half and have been going down
[7:05] Speaker 1: down down. Look, the Jags were goodish against a much
[7:12] Speaker 1: less talented team. You know, I think we put that
[7:15] Speaker 1: one in the category of they did what they were
[7:17] Speaker 1: supposed to do, and the Bengals straight up should have lost.
[7:24] Speaker 1: On Sunday, they had fewer than half as many yards
[7:27] Speaker 1: as the Browns. They averaged almost two yards less per play,
[7:32] Speaker 1: They had half as many first downs. Joe Burrow completed
[7:36] Speaker 1: fourteen passes for one hundred and thirteen yards, averaged three
[7:40] Speaker 1: point eight five yards per attempt. Even with multiple third
[7:46] Speaker 1: and fourth down drops by the Browns, the Bengals defense
[7:49] Speaker 1: still allowed the Browns to go eleven of nineteen on
[7:53] Speaker 1: third and fourth down conversions. Like, if you're a Browns fan,
[7:56] Speaker 1: this is truly sickening. Here's my problem. I think this
[8:03] Speaker 1: has been way over adjusted five and a half down
[8:07] Speaker 1: to three at this point. Like, this was five and
[8:10] Speaker 1: a half until Sunday at six pm, and it dropped
[8:13] Speaker 1: two points because of the way the Bengals played. Dude,
[8:19] Speaker 1: am I crazy for liking the Bengals here?
[8:22] Speaker 2: You're not at the number?
[8:24] Speaker 3: I agree, but there are three and a half's out there,
[8:26] Speaker 3: Like I honestly was coming in here. I was hoping
[8:27] Speaker 3: we would take the Jaguars, but like you said, the
[8:30] Speaker 3: number is moving too much, probably going to get to
[8:33] Speaker 3: two and a half by the way it's going right now,
[8:35] Speaker 3: because that's some real professional money now that's coming heavy
[8:39] Speaker 3: on this Jaguars side, and they were spot on last week,
[8:42] Speaker 3: so it's hard for me to sit here and doubt
[8:45] Speaker 3: them when they're taken a position on this team and
[8:47] Speaker 3: they nailed it last week in this matchup, and you're
[8:49] Speaker 3: really breaking it down, this isn't that great of a
[8:52] Speaker 3: match for the Bengals, right, There are guys on the
[8:54] Speaker 3: defensive line of the Jaguars that can give them major problems.
[8:58] Speaker 2: Like that's as.
[9:00] Speaker 3: Much of you want to bash Joe Burrow because yes,
[9:02] Speaker 3: seven yards for a guy who many say is top
[9:06] Speaker 3: five in the NFL at the quarter acquisition pretty embarrassing,
[9:09] Speaker 3: let's be honest, and does fall on him a little bit,
[9:12] Speaker 3: like you can't just make a quick read to get
[9:14] Speaker 3: a first down with one of the best receivers in
[9:16] Speaker 3: all football.
[9:17] Speaker 2: It was a bad look.
[9:18] Speaker 3: So you know your opinion on the Bengals, this is
[9:21] Speaker 3: probably a.
[9:22] Speaker 2: Nice Bilow spot.
[9:23] Speaker 3: So I get while you're like the minus three, I
[9:25] Speaker 3: just I go back and watch that film and it
[9:28] Speaker 3: just looks very scary where their defense is terrible.
[9:32] Speaker 2: There are gaping holes running.
[9:34] Speaker 3: And I don't think either of us think Stefanski's you know,
[9:38] Speaker 3: on the same level as Liam Cohne as an offensive mind.
[9:41] Speaker 3: So if his run game worked, I would think the
[9:45] Speaker 3: Jags have an advantage in this matchup to their run
[9:47] Speaker 3: game and the run blocking, skimming offense. As bad as
[9:50] Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence looks at some points, if he has a
[9:51] Speaker 3: good run game, we've seen him really be good in
[9:54] Speaker 3: play action and be able to push.
[9:55] Speaker 2: The ball downfield.
[9:56] Speaker 3: So yeah, I get where you're coming from. The three
[9:59] Speaker 3: and a half, to me is the difference three and
[10:00] Speaker 3: a half. I'm there on the Jaguars. If me and
[10:03] Speaker 3: chat are stuck on a three or two and a
[10:05] Speaker 3: half in our contest, I'm not forcing the Jaguars in here.
[10:08] Speaker 3: It's just all about the number, because I think we're
[10:10] Speaker 3: both weary of this Jaguars team being overvalued of such
[10:13] Speaker 3: a dominant week one.
[10:15] Speaker 1: Yeah, look, there's actually trends that back taking the Bengals here.
[10:20] Speaker 1: You know, when two good teams are playing each other
[10:23] Speaker 1: and one team is off a blowout win and one
[10:25] Speaker 1: team won by a very small number. Historically you want
[10:31] Speaker 1: to take the team that won by the very small number.
[10:35] Speaker 1: It's sort of flashing red for me, actually flashing green. Simon.
[10:40] Speaker 1: You know that I spent the summer working on like
[10:42] Speaker 1: various models and systems and stuff with my Harvard Stats
[10:47] Speaker 1: intern and this is one of the games that the
[10:51] Speaker 1: model is saying, bet, bet bet. I'm a little hesitant
[10:54] Speaker 1: because it's a little different when it's one game into
[10:58] Speaker 1: the season versus five games in the season. So I'm
[11:00] Speaker 1: not rushing.
[11:01] Speaker 3: And the trend right the sean we talked about the
[11:04] Speaker 3: Burrow trend of one and nine straight up. I believe
[11:07] Speaker 3: in the first two weeks that's scary. Yeah, yeah, that's
[11:10] Speaker 3: a real thing.
[11:11] Speaker 1: Yeah. So, like to me, I lean Bengals here just
[11:15] Speaker 1: because of the number, But I don't. I don't want
[11:18] Speaker 1: to play it aggressively. I've not made a bet on it.
[11:20] Speaker 1: I don't care about it in the contest. It just
[11:22] Speaker 1: was interesting to me.
[11:24] Speaker 3: In the two and a half might be unboiyable once
[11:26] Speaker 3: it hits that number. Yeah, how do you not take
[11:28] Speaker 3: the Bengals at this point?
[11:29] Speaker 1: You're gonna have to. It's interest. The Bengals offensive line
[11:32] Speaker 1: was terrible, and granted, the Browns defense was amazing, but
[11:37] Speaker 1: you've made a very good point, Like Josh Hainz Allen
[11:41] Speaker 1: is a fierce pass rusher and if even if nothing
[11:44] Speaker 1: else in the Jaguars defense is great, like he can
[11:46] Speaker 1: create pressure that will be disruptive to the Bengals and
[11:51] Speaker 1: make their offensive line really really challenged. So scary, it's
[11:56] Speaker 1: a scary game. It's a weird game to want to
[11:59] Speaker 1: dive into deep is a better um? Oh, dude, New
[12:05] Speaker 1: England at Miami. Miami is a one and a half
[12:08] Speaker 1: point favorite. Look. I said this on the Sunday Show.
[12:12] Speaker 1: This opened at one and a half, It got bit
[12:14] Speaker 1: up to two and a half. When it got up
[12:16] Speaker 1: to two and a half, there was one one and
[12:18] Speaker 1: a half still out there. So I grabbed the one
[12:21] Speaker 1: and a half and it started moving back in the
[12:26] Speaker 1: Dolphins direction because yesterday apparently everyone watched film and ran
[12:31] Speaker 1: their models and realized, you know what you've known for months.
[12:36] Speaker 1: The Dolphins team has no secondary, it has no offensive line.
[12:40] Speaker 1: If Tua can't get his first read, he's in total
[12:45] Speaker 1: shock mode. Mike McDaniels might be out of tricks. And oh,
[12:51] Speaker 1: by the way, it was reported this morning that Tyreek
[12:53] Speaker 1: Hill has been accused of domestic violence by his estranged wife.
[12:57] Speaker 1: I was a manager in executive for a long time
[13:01] Speaker 1: between ESPN and Action, and like, I know what it's
[13:06] Speaker 1: like when you are trying to run an organization and
[13:13] Speaker 1: everything is going badly because of the choices you made. Like,
[13:17] Speaker 1: when the things you can control are going badly, I
[13:21] Speaker 1: totally get it. But when the things that you can't
[13:24] Speaker 1: control are going badly. I'm just imagining Mike McDaniel's face
[13:28] Speaker 1: as soon as you heard this news, He's like, you
[13:31] Speaker 1: gotta be freaking kidding me. I don't. I bet the
[13:36] Speaker 1: Dolphins already. I'm not looking to invest anymore in it.
[13:41] Speaker 1: Please help me get out of this.
[13:44] Speaker 3: You can't be helped the fact already bet. It just
[13:47] Speaker 3: shows you can't be helped it. So I get it
[13:48] Speaker 3: what you're doing. You're just you're betting on the team
[13:51] Speaker 3: that looked the worst in Week one, that got blown out,
[13:53] Speaker 3: and everyone's killing him, the national media. It could work
[13:57] Speaker 3: for you, but they're to me, there is just no
[13:59] Speaker 3: logical reason to back this team, where it just feels
[14:03] Speaker 3: like this isn't the spot, These aren't the spots where
[14:06] Speaker 3: this team turns around. I think when they get a
[14:07] Speaker 3: new head coach, whatever it is, maybe in week nine
[14:09] Speaker 3: to ten, they have some couple of redemption games because,
[14:12] Speaker 3: like we said, they do have talent in some spots,
[14:15] Speaker 3: like you know, a really good running back, they have
[14:17] Speaker 3: pretty good receivers. Tua as lost as he's looked, Me
[14:20] Speaker 3: and Chad have seen him look like a comparable quarterback.
[14:24] Speaker 3: You know, it's it's just so bad, so negative, and
[14:30] Speaker 3: you know, talking about being checked out on your head coach,
[14:33] Speaker 3: I think they've been checked out, and that's the fear
[14:35] Speaker 3: here is is he going to motivate them here? Because
[14:38] Speaker 3: in my mind for them, if they just eat this game,
[14:41] Speaker 3: I think they think they could. He could be out
[14:44] Speaker 3: after the game, right this is at home.
[14:46] Speaker 2: They've already been embarrassed week one.
[14:48] Speaker 3: There was a reason he was the favorite right to
[14:50] Speaker 3: be first head coach fired.
[14:51] Speaker 2: So yeah, it's bad.
[14:53] Speaker 3: And when I look across the field at Vrabel, I
[14:56] Speaker 3: feel like this is the perfect kind of spot for
[14:58] Speaker 3: him and his team where they're bad as well. I
[15:01] Speaker 3: think we talked a little bout that coming to the year,
[15:03] Speaker 3: where it's like I think they just got too much
[15:06] Speaker 3: hype based on their schedule. I was, and we talked
[15:08] Speaker 3: about it, like they were looked at as an easy
[15:10] Speaker 3: team to everyone else, while the Patriots are like, oh look,
[15:12] Speaker 3: how EASi our schedules. It's like, you guys are an
[15:14] Speaker 3: easy team. So you know they have weaknesses. If Christian
[15:19] Speaker 3: Zalas is in this game, if they have their defense
[15:22] Speaker 3: fully healthy, and in my mind, this is a much
[15:26] Speaker 3: better bounce back spot for Drake May than it was
[15:30] Speaker 3: playing that Raiders in that first game where they just
[15:33] Speaker 3: look like they were honestly out coached by Pete Carroll
[15:35] Speaker 3: and his group, like preparedness wise, offensively. I mean, you know,
[15:39] Speaker 3: Chad knows my left for Geno. That just all worked
[15:41] Speaker 3: so well for them. I think it's so negative here.
[15:44] Speaker 3: This feels like a type of spot Brabele gets his
[15:46] Speaker 3: guys right. That's why I just liked it. Again, Chad
[15:49] Speaker 3: was on the other episode side when this got the
[15:50] Speaker 3: two and a half.
[15:51] Speaker 2: I immediately hit the.
[15:52] Speaker 3: Patriots side again, same as you though, just dipping my
[15:55] Speaker 3: toes in because I don't know how involved that would
[15:57] Speaker 3: even want to be in this game because it's just
[15:59] Speaker 3: I hate, I hate, I just hate this Miami team
[16:01] Speaker 3: so much because, like you think, in your own mind,
[16:05] Speaker 3: this could be a spot where they bounce back. So
[16:07] Speaker 3: I'm not gonna make us force in the Patriots. But
[16:09] Speaker 3: I can clearly see we're both on opposite sides in
[16:11] Speaker 3: this game.
[16:13] Speaker 1: Well, I'm not on any side in this game.
[16:16] Speaker 2: Otherwise, I'm only I'm.
[16:17] Speaker 1: Only I made a mistake, like we all make mistakes,
[16:20] Speaker 1: like I've made. What did I say this season? I
[16:23] Speaker 1: was not gonna.
[16:24] Speaker 2: I get where you're coming from.
[16:25] Speaker 3: I get where your your views on this one, because again,
[16:27] Speaker 3: it was so embarrassing, just.
[16:29] Speaker 1: It was so embarrassing to look. There's a there's a
[16:32] Speaker 1: website that's great that's called Killer Sports, and I discovered
[16:37] Speaker 1: I don't know if you know it or not, Simon.
[16:39] Speaker 2: No, but I love you get on the internet going
[16:40] Speaker 2: on weird sites.
[16:41] Speaker 1: So killer Sports. I discovered it when I was hanging
[16:44] Speaker 1: with this guy's professional better who lives in Costa Rica,
[16:47] Speaker 1: and we were sitting on his couch all day and
[16:50] Speaker 1: watching games. And anytime we started talking sort of in
[16:54] Speaker 1: depth about a game or a team, it could be
[16:56] Speaker 1: called football, could be baseball, could be NFL, and we
[16:59] Speaker 1: were talking about how does this team do or how
[17:02] Speaker 1: does this pitcher do? He would just go to Killer
[17:04] Speaker 1: Sports and there's a search bar and you can type
[17:06] Speaker 1: in using real language, you know anything you're interested in
[17:10] Speaker 1: finding out about betting on teams, and has got this
[17:14] Speaker 1: database that goes back thirty six years.
[17:17] Speaker 2: Oh it's amazing.
[17:18] Speaker 1: So I just typed in like NFL teams after a
[17:25] Speaker 1: blowout of twenty points or more. I think I've been
[17:29] Speaker 1: I did since twenty fifteen because to me, as much
[17:33] Speaker 1: data as there is available on sort of betting, twenty
[17:37] Speaker 1: fifteen is when the extra point moved back right, and
[17:40] Speaker 1: so it changed how teams go for two, and it
[17:43] Speaker 1: changed what key numbers are a little bit. So I
[17:46] Speaker 1: use that as sort of the line of demarcation. Since
[17:49] Speaker 1: twenty fifteen, teams off a twenty point loss covered a
[17:53] Speaker 1: fifty four percent rate. So I have that in the
[17:55] Speaker 1: back of my head as I'm going through these matchups.
[17:59] Speaker 1: It's not making me like the Dolphins anymore. I think
[18:03] Speaker 1: that if we're talking about two teams off a loss
[18:05] Speaker 1: that need to make adjustments, Vrabel is going to have
[18:08] Speaker 1: his team more ready than Mike McDaniels. But that is
[18:15] Speaker 1: a note to consider the Miammy.
[18:18] Speaker 2: Dolphins, got ya.
[18:20] Speaker 1: That's it. That's it. San Francisco at New Orleans. Look
[18:26] Speaker 1: there's news here, right, Hard rock Bat has his line
[18:29] Speaker 1: at San Francisco minus four. It was at seven. And
[18:33] Speaker 1: obviously there's brock Purty injury news. His status this weekend
[18:37] Speaker 1: is uncertain because of toe and injury issues. George Kittle
[18:41] Speaker 1: is out because of the hamstring issue already, Like the
[18:45] Speaker 1: Niners are suffering the injury bug that they tend to
[18:51] Speaker 1: suffer every year, which is just a bummer because they're
[18:53] Speaker 1: always so talented and I feel badly for this franchise.
[18:57] Speaker 1: But look now, the numbers down to four. Pretty big,
[19:00] Speaker 1: pretty big move. All of it's a pass for me.
[19:05] Speaker 1: Like I'm not betting on Mac Jones is a favorite
[19:07] Speaker 1: on the road. I'm not betting on the Saints as
[19:10] Speaker 1: a short home dog. No thanks.
[19:15] Speaker 3: Yeah, this number is moving, and it was a game
[19:17] Speaker 3: we're honestly probably gonna be on. Like I I liked
[19:21] Speaker 3: how the Saints played in that Corners game. I know
[19:22] Speaker 3: they didn't cover, but they had so many opportunities to
[19:25] Speaker 3: do it. Again, They're just a bad team, that's why
[19:27] Speaker 3: they didn't cover. It's just pretty simple. And I pretty
[19:32] Speaker 3: much been on brand with my foreign Nursty and I
[19:34] Speaker 3: think they are talented, but I think they have a
[19:36] Speaker 3: lot of groin pains, and unfortunately for them, they're not
[19:39] Speaker 3: gonna be able to go through those growing pains. Right
[19:41] Speaker 3: the injury bug is already hitting this team, which is
[19:43] Speaker 3: just brutal. And you know, this is a type of
[19:47] Speaker 3: game where I would have just hoped and prayed that
[19:51] Speaker 3: Pretty played because this would have been a huge, huge
[19:54] Speaker 3: pick in Survivor contest and this felt like a trap
[19:57] Speaker 3: game coming in and because again that forty nine Ers
[20:00] Speaker 3: went over the Seahawks. That's a huge emotional win on
[20:04] Speaker 3: the road against a divisional opponent, like this was a
[20:07] Speaker 3: bad spot for this forty nine Ers team. And now,
[20:11] Speaker 3: like Chad just said, hard Rock, Hearon Jersey, they're four
[20:14] Speaker 3: and a half. They're going down to four in most books,
[20:17] Speaker 3: so you know the number is moving towards the four
[20:20] Speaker 3: from the four and a half. That just shows where
[20:22] Speaker 3: the professional money is and it shows that I don't
[20:24] Speaker 3: think they think Party's gonna play, and I don't have
[20:27] Speaker 3: an opinion on it now because the numbers moved so
[20:29] Speaker 3: much that if Pretty doesn't play, it's Mac Jones.
[20:34] Speaker 2: That's a big deal.
[20:36] Speaker 3: Like what Pretty does so special in that team is
[20:38] Speaker 3: his legs, like what he can do with his legs.
[20:40] Speaker 3: So yeah, I think we can be patient here, Chad.
[20:44] Speaker 3: If we're lucky in this line locks a four and
[20:46] Speaker 3: a half like in contest like most of you, and
[20:49] Speaker 3: by kickoff this is down to two and a half.
[20:51] Speaker 3: Three that's gonna be a long hard thought, you know,
[20:54] Speaker 3: Spencer Rattler over Mac Jones in this matchup, yere cause
[20:57] Speaker 3: again on paper Kamar and Mccasjeffrey. McCaffrey obviously is better,
[21:01] Speaker 3: but in their systems pretty similar running backs right catching
[21:05] Speaker 3: out of the backfield, really versatile weapons like there's a
[21:08] Speaker 3: lot of counter them on the offense. And then defensively,
[21:12] Speaker 3: we saw that Saints they got a lot of veterans,
[21:15] Speaker 3: right like, they have a lot of guys that are
[21:16] Speaker 3: still there that have been there for a long time
[21:18] Speaker 3: that produce. So I don't know, I'm trying not to
[21:21] Speaker 3: get too into this now because the line could go
[21:23] Speaker 3: right back up to seven if pretty is cleared.
[21:25] Speaker 2: So this is a game.
[21:27] Speaker 3: Be patient if you want to grab the four and
[21:28] Speaker 3: a half on the Saints now, just because the professionals
[21:31] Speaker 3: are moving this to four. I can't hate you. I
[21:33] Speaker 3: can't fight you on. I'm gonna probably most likely go
[21:35] Speaker 3: to once we get off this call.
[21:36] Speaker 1: You know, the the injury for Purty is a shoulder
[21:40] Speaker 1: and a toe.
[21:42] Speaker 2: Are apparently the toe's worst.
[21:43] Speaker 1: YE going to That's what I was just gonna say.
[21:45] Speaker 1: The reports are that the toe is significantly worse. And
[21:49] Speaker 1: to your point about him being a mobile quarterback who
[21:51] Speaker 1: can make plays and sort of keep plays alive with
[21:54] Speaker 1: his legs, that's huge. Like if even if it's a
[21:57] Speaker 1: hindrance for the next four or five, six, seven, whatever weeks,
[22:02] Speaker 1: that's something that's going to impact them. One thing, the
[22:06] Speaker 1: Niners had a terrible game rushing the ball against the Seahawks.
[22:10] Speaker 1: We're going to get into the Seahawks and the Steelers
[22:12] Speaker 1: in a minute, but they could get healthy, so to speak,
[22:17] Speaker 1: rushing against the Saints, who just gave up one hundred
[22:20] Speaker 1: and fifty yards on the ground to the Cardinals. Right
[22:24] Speaker 1: like the Niners in every way, Even if it's Mac
[22:27] Speaker 1: Jones and they can crowd the box, the Saints can,
[22:30] Speaker 1: the Niners will find a way to be more effective
[22:32] Speaker 1: running the ball. You think the Saints I do.
[22:35] Speaker 2: I was like, I don't know. Again, I just have questions.
[22:37] Speaker 2: By the offensive line and just the forty nine ers.
[22:41] Speaker 2: I think people saw that.
[22:43] Speaker 3: You know, if you rewatch that game, it was all
[22:47] Speaker 3: party that bailed them out, right, that was either going
[22:49] Speaker 3: to be a pick in the end zone or a touchdown,
[22:51] Speaker 3: a fifty to fifty ball at the end of the game.
[22:54] Speaker 3: And then a very very well timed Bosa pushing the
[22:57] Speaker 3: alignment into you know, get that set stripsack and then
[23:01] Speaker 3: the game on Darnold, which you know, sealed the game.
[23:04] Speaker 3: So it's like, there are two big time studs stepped
[23:07] Speaker 3: up at the end of the game, and now they
[23:09] Speaker 3: might not have Purty, a guy they desperately need. It's
[23:12] Speaker 3: just something to keep in mind how big of a
[23:13] Speaker 3: deal is to that team.
[23:14] Speaker 1: Oh, it was totally fluky that they covered that game.
[23:17] Speaker 1: They have no right winning the game alone.
[23:20] Speaker 3: That's why I love superstar players, right, they show up
[23:23] Speaker 3: in those moments.
[23:24] Speaker 2: So that's why you win those big games.
[23:27] Speaker 1: Cleveland at Baltimore line is ten and a half. Look,
[23:33] Speaker 1: this was at twelve and a half on Sunday.
[23:35] Speaker 2: Yeah, it's moving, it's moving.
[23:37] Speaker 1: It went down to eleven and a half and then
[23:39] Speaker 1: yesterday went back up to twelve and a half and
[23:42] Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, just this morning, there's been
[23:45] Speaker 1: a rush on the Browns and it's moved back down
[23:50] Speaker 1: to ten and a half. I know the side that
[23:54] Speaker 1: we want to play here as the Browns, Right. I
[23:58] Speaker 1: don't love it as much as I thought I would.
[24:01] Speaker 2: No, I love it.
[24:02] Speaker 3: I love this match of the Browns, but obviously it's
[24:04] Speaker 3: all about the number. If we can get nine and
[24:06] Speaker 3: a half, I'm happy to flip to the Ravens.
[24:08] Speaker 1: Right.
[24:09] Speaker 2: I have this right at ten, so still a ten
[24:11] Speaker 2: and a half.
[24:12] Speaker 3: I do like Cleveland, but I'm I'm in the same
[24:15] Speaker 3: boat of Like, if the public absolutely was hammering the
[24:18] Speaker 3: Ravens and this I got up to thirteen thirteen and
[24:21] Speaker 3: a half, would it loved?
[24:22] Speaker 1: It?
[24:22] Speaker 2: Would have been?
[24:23] Speaker 3: Simon says most likely, Like I don't care taking them
[24:26] Speaker 3: back to back weeks because it's like we're just playing
[24:28] Speaker 3: the value here.
[24:29] Speaker 2: So the number early line.
[24:31] Speaker 3: Movement to me is right, it should have been Cleveland
[24:34] Speaker 3: money early here like that.
[24:35] Speaker 2: The Ravens are really talented, they're really good. It's a
[24:39] Speaker 2: divisional game.
[24:40] Speaker 3: It's it's a divisional game and a spot where you know,
[24:45] Speaker 3: we're probably getting value on Cleveland because they should have won,
[24:47] Speaker 3: Like they should have won.
[24:48] Speaker 2: This number probably should be under ten.
[24:50] Speaker 3: And yeah, you know, if they went by a touchdown
[24:52] Speaker 3: or a field whatever would have been, it would have
[24:55] Speaker 3: been a big movement to this line because I think
[24:57] Speaker 3: the public would have been much more respectful this Cleveland team.
[25:00] Speaker 3: But like we talked about, the public is getting smart
[25:03] Speaker 3: people on the est pan other shows.
[25:06] Speaker 2: You know, it's not all brain rots.
[25:07] Speaker 3: Some in further giving out as good and the inn
[25:09] Speaker 3: further giving out is how dominant that Brown's defense was
[25:12] Speaker 3: against the Bengals, Which is that.
[25:15] Speaker 2: A Bengals thing. We're about to find out this week.
[25:17] Speaker 3: Was that a Bengals problem or was that Cleveland's defense
[25:19] Speaker 3: being that good? So, you know, at this number, I
[25:23] Speaker 3: like it. This is this is a better defense than
[25:25] Speaker 3: the Bills, that's for damn sure. So they abtously don't
[25:28] Speaker 3: have the MVP of Josh Allen. That's why we're getting
[25:31] Speaker 3: ten and a half. So not going to force it
[25:33] Speaker 3: in like we like Cleveland's side. If it gets under ten,
[25:37] Speaker 3: we can't have a conversation about the Ravens because at
[25:39] Speaker 3: that point the disrespect is too far. And this is
[25:42] Speaker 3: still you know, the number one, number two seed in
[25:45] Speaker 3: the AFC.
[25:46] Speaker 1: Yeah, look, you just took the words out of my mouth.
[25:49] Speaker 1: The Bills pass rush totally red havoc on the Ravens
[25:54] Speaker 1: on Sunday Night. And the Browns are better at every
[25:58] Speaker 1: level than the Bills. Defensively, they're better. Yeah, their secondary
[26:02] Speaker 1: is so much better. Their pass rush is so much better.
[26:06] Speaker 1: Their defense. You know, it's hard to quantify all of
[26:13] Speaker 1: the ways in which their defense was so dominant, situationally
[26:17] Speaker 1: and overall against the Bengals, Like they made Joe Burrow
[26:21] Speaker 1: look like he was a rookie playing in his first game.
[26:24] Speaker 1: They were just freaking brilliant.
[26:28] Speaker 3: Literally were he joked, But it was literally almost impossible
[26:31] Speaker 3: to lose that game, and they did lose it.
[26:33] Speaker 2: It's incredible.
[26:34] Speaker 1: That's just because it's Cleveland.
[26:35] Speaker 3: Yeah, But mathematical, like you've seen all the numbers where
[26:38] Speaker 3: it's like, yeah, two and three hundred all these teams,
[26:40] Speaker 3: what the Bengals were in that exact spot now, like
[26:43] Speaker 3: they're the third team ever to win getting seven yards
[26:46] Speaker 3: in the second half.
[26:47] Speaker 1: I'm going to give you a stat though, ready are
[26:50] Speaker 1: you ready?
[26:52] Speaker 2: Ready?
[26:54] Speaker 1: Since twenty fifteen, double digit road dogs in the division
[27:00] Speaker 1: only cover forty three percent of the time.
[27:04] Speaker 3: Well, well, yeah, not the best spot, but again, still
[27:09] Speaker 3: still love it a little bit. But like we said,
[27:11] Speaker 3: I'm hoping, honestly, this goes the Ravens nine.
[27:13] Speaker 1: And a half. I that's what I would prefer.
[27:15] Speaker 2: That would that would be, that would be the spot
[27:16] Speaker 2: to back.
[27:17] Speaker 1: I'd rather, honestly, I'd rather bet the Ravens in single
[27:20] Speaker 1: digits at this point than bet the Browns at double
[27:24] Speaker 1: digit dogs.
[27:26] Speaker 3: But that that Ravens defense. They came out slow last year.
[27:30] Speaker 3: Who knows what they will be this year. But it's
[27:33] Speaker 3: it's hanging on me, Chad, this exact spot last year
[27:35] Speaker 3: Raiders ten point dogs.
[27:38] Speaker 1: Yeah, mid chew, oh, I remember.
[27:40] Speaker 2: So it's it's a weird thing with this team.
[27:43] Speaker 3: I don't know if it's it's I guess it can
[27:46] Speaker 3: be put on horrorball, right. I think at the end
[27:47] Speaker 3: of the day, this all has to be put on horrible.
[27:49] Speaker 3: He's got arguably the best running back, best quarterback tandem ever,
[27:54] Speaker 3: So it's just weird. They keep losing these games where
[27:58] Speaker 3: they have huge leads, and yep, we expect to bounce
[28:01] Speaker 3: back spot here.
[28:02] Speaker 2: So I think we're in line here. If it's nine
[28:03] Speaker 2: and a half, well of a real decision.
[28:05] Speaker 1: To make Yeah, yeah, all right, let's do a quick
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[30:27] Speaker 1: For JAA, all right, we're looking at the giants in Dallas.
[30:31] Speaker 1: Dallas is a five and a half point favorite. This
[30:34] Speaker 1: number has been moving in the direction of the Giants.
[30:39] Speaker 1: A little surprised, to be honest, that there would be
[30:41] Speaker 1: any enthusiasm for the Giants at all after this past week.
[30:47] Speaker 1: They seem like they could compete with the Dolphins for
[30:53] Speaker 1: worst record in the NFL because I don't know what
[30:56] Speaker 1: they're going to do on offense. They already look like
[30:58] Speaker 1: they are falling apart on the sidelines. Russell Wilson was
[31:02] Speaker 1: just dreadful, right, I was actually pretty encouraged by the
[31:07] Speaker 1: Cowboys on Thursday night. Like you could see in these games,
[31:11] Speaker 1: which for these two teams over the weekend, how a
[31:14] Speaker 1: team with a mediocre roster can be better and competitive
[31:19] Speaker 1: with a very good quarterback, and how a bad quarterback
[31:24] Speaker 1: can just bring that whole team down. And you called
[31:28] Speaker 1: it in the preseason about how good Dak is. It
[31:30] Speaker 1: just changes everything for a for a team when that
[31:35] Speaker 1: quarterback can make plays. And so to me, I like,
[31:42] Speaker 1: you know, this line actually exploited on Sunday, and there's
[31:46] Speaker 1: been some buyback probably lean Dallas.
[31:52] Speaker 3: Here, Yeah, love Dallas. And you know that that week
[31:57] Speaker 3: one I got so many message about why I bet
[32:01] Speaker 3: so heavy Week one, and we've talked about it, Right,
[32:04] Speaker 3: It's just if I can bet something for months at
[32:06] Speaker 3: a time, it's easy for me to get a lot
[32:08] Speaker 3: of money down. And the Cowboys that was a rare opportunity.
[32:11] Speaker 3: We talked that was seven opened at seven, and I
[32:14] Speaker 3: kept saying, it's just this is not a Dak line,
[32:18] Speaker 3: Like people just forget the talent of Dak because he
[32:20] Speaker 3: was hurt and man that I always have egg on
[32:23] Speaker 3: my face because you don't ever expect Parsons trade. And
[32:26] Speaker 3: that was the scariest part of that line, where it's like,
[32:29] Speaker 3: you know, I wanted to see what their defense was
[32:31] Speaker 3: gonna be like obviously without Parsons because to me, we
[32:35] Speaker 3: saw it against Egles like there was no pass rush
[32:37] Speaker 3: without them, like totally neutralized. He is by far the
[32:41] Speaker 3: best player in that defense. How would they why would
[32:43] Speaker 3: they get rid of this guy? Like you told you
[32:45] Speaker 3: saw it in that Eagles game. It is a big deal, right,
[32:47] Speaker 3: And you can say, well, they came out, they made
[32:50] Speaker 3: adjustments in the defense, played way better, especially against the run,
[32:53] Speaker 3: which was that was the biggest deal.
[32:54] Speaker 2: Right.
[32:54] Speaker 3: They wanted to prove against the run. You saw that,
[32:57] Speaker 3: So you know hesitation about this Cowboys team, that would
[33:00] Speaker 3: be it, right, We don't really still know what they are.
[33:02] Speaker 3: But to me, it's again being confident in why I'm
[33:04] Speaker 3: betting this. I have this number at seven. So this
[33:06] Speaker 3: is really about Dak. Dak beats the shit out of
[33:11] Speaker 3: bad teams, especially in his own division. This Giants team
[33:15] Speaker 3: is a bad team, and you know, you saw people
[33:18] Speaker 3: trying to force their doubt like their Giants love this
[33:20] Speaker 3: offseason and you know, talk about how good their D
[33:23] Speaker 3: line is. There are so many other aspects to a
[33:26] Speaker 3: team besides the D line. That's why I thought their
[33:29] Speaker 3: draft pick was dumb at Dube Card is an incredible talent.
[33:32] Speaker 2: I get.
[33:32] Speaker 3: You have to take them. Your offensive line is so
[33:36] Speaker 3: bad it is three four years away from being fixed.
[33:39] Speaker 3: If you're the Giants and you knew you were taking
[33:42] Speaker 3: Dart late in the first like to me, you trade
[33:46] Speaker 3: down at least from that pick and you get offensive
[33:48] Speaker 3: lineman because we've seen that's the problem around this Giants team.
[33:52] Speaker 3: Russell Wilson had no time. I mean, Neighbors is losing
[33:55] Speaker 3: his mind. That offense is putrid. I mean, this might
[33:58] Speaker 3: have to be a survivor pick because when else are
[34:00] Speaker 3: we going to use Dallas in this exact spot right right,
[34:02] Speaker 3: Dallas at home coming off a game they should have won.
[34:06] Speaker 3: You know, CD gifted that win to that Eagles team
[34:10] Speaker 3: that they lost that game thirty different ways. That Eagles team,
[34:13] Speaker 3: like that was such a Dallas win, you know, between
[34:16] Speaker 3: the fumble, the untimely fumbled and the drops by CD,
[34:21] Speaker 3: I can't imagine what they're practice like this week. And
[34:22] Speaker 3: just Dak knows they cannot be going. Oh and to
[34:26] Speaker 3: let alone, let this be a close game. I see
[34:27] Speaker 3: them rolling. I love this number. It's gonna be probably
[34:31] Speaker 3: the most public line I liked this week, right, the
[34:33] Speaker 3: minus five and a half, minus six, so I liked
[34:36] Speaker 3: the pros are buying back on the Giants. They can't
[34:38] Speaker 3: quit them. They're like you with Miami. They just can't
[34:40] Speaker 3: quit it. And I see what they see. But man,
[34:44] Speaker 3: this just feels like a bad spot and a bad
[34:46] Speaker 3: match for the Giants team, which we talked about.
[34:49] Speaker 2: Their schedule is just so brutal. There's no week off.
[34:52] Speaker 3: Every week iss is brutal, brutal, brutal, and this is
[34:54] Speaker 3: another bad week. So yeah, I'm not there on this
[34:58] Speaker 3: Giants team seven and a half. If it gets yes,
[35:00] Speaker 3: I'll like Giants, but under seven, this is I think
[35:03] Speaker 3: we're in sync.
[35:04] Speaker 2: This is totally a Dallas line and a good number.
[35:06] Speaker 1: It's so weird how so many wise guys were playing
[35:10] Speaker 1: the Giants against the Commander. You were all over the Commanders, yea,
[35:15] Speaker 1: and everybody was piling into the Giants. This was the stat,
[35:21] Speaker 1: the most telling stat to me out of that game.
[35:24] Speaker 1: The Giants had eleven scoring opportunities with plays inside the
[35:31] Speaker 1: ten yard line for them from the three yard line.
[35:36] Speaker 1: They failed on all eleven. Like they're falling. They were
[35:42] Speaker 1: falling apart before our eyes. That any other game the
[35:47] Speaker 1: Commanders were, any other the Commanders play any of their
[35:50] Speaker 1: team and that's a close game, like they were. They
[35:53] Speaker 1: were keeping them in the game, and the Giants could
[35:56] Speaker 1: not figure out a way to capitalize on anything. They
[35:59] Speaker 1: just looked looked completely lost. It's like the Hall of
[36:02] Speaker 1: Fame legacy for Russell Wilson, you know, when he was
[36:06] Speaker 1: at peak leaving Seattle. Every year just gets worse and
[36:12] Speaker 1: worse and worse for Russell Wilson. We owe people, as
[36:17] Speaker 1: Simon says, we owe people of Chad Loves Love. This
[36:21] Speaker 1: feels a little too square for me to go Chad
[36:24] Speaker 1: Love's Love. But the way you talk about it I'm tempted,
[36:29] Speaker 1: and it's sort of in the range of what I
[36:31] Speaker 1: like to bet teams like that three to nine, So
[36:34] Speaker 1: it's interesting.
[36:36] Speaker 3: Very definitely tempted with the five and a half because that,
[36:38] Speaker 3: to me is a really good number right now on
[36:40] Speaker 3: this cowboy side.
[36:41] Speaker 1: Yeah, I got to consider that. Listen, Detroit is now
[36:45] Speaker 1: a five and a half point favorite hard rock bet
[36:48] Speaker 1: over the Chicago Bears. You mentioned this on Sunday night,
[36:51] Speaker 1: and then yesterday I texted you. I called you him like,
[36:56] Speaker 1: were you really leaning Detroit four and a half? And
[36:58] Speaker 1: You're like, I can't even remember what I said because
[37:00] Speaker 1: I was up for thirty six straight hours until the
[37:03] Speaker 1: Sunday show. But you did say let's get the four
[37:05] Speaker 1: and a half for Detroit now, because just right they did.
[37:11] Speaker 1: Here's the problem. I'm a little skeptical about the Lions,
[37:15] Speaker 1: Like digging into that game, I thought in the first
[37:18] Speaker 1: half they had opportunities to sort of make this game
[37:20] Speaker 1: close and not have it be so lopsided for the
[37:23] Speaker 1: Packers in terms of the score. But I'm worried about
[37:27] Speaker 1: their offensive line. Like Frank Ragnow the center retired, Kevin Zeitler,
[37:33] Speaker 1: the guard left in free agency. They had a couple
[37:36] Speaker 1: of rookies in there who just looked like rookies, and
[37:40] Speaker 1: will they get everything fixed over the course of you know,
[37:43] Speaker 1: five days of practice. So this running game can be
[37:47] Speaker 1: sort of the bulwark that it had been that sets
[37:52] Speaker 1: everything up for Jared Goff. I would I would lean
[37:57] Speaker 1: into the Lions because I think clearly their coaching staff
[38:01] Speaker 1: is better than the Bears. But I don't love this
[38:05] Speaker 1: game right now.
[38:08] Speaker 3: Yeah, I hope Bears fans hear this. Don't don't be
[38:11] Speaker 3: so doom and glue. I know that's the whole Chicago personality.
[38:15] Speaker 3: It's just, oh, we lost Game one, the world's over,
[38:17] Speaker 3: We're the worst team ever, burned it all down. Caleb's
[38:20] Speaker 3: a bus we showed Uh, I get it. It's that's
[38:22] Speaker 3: very Chicago. But I talked about this is you have
[38:25] Speaker 3: to treat this is Caleb's rookie year.
[38:27] Speaker 2: Last year was a total waste.
[38:30] Speaker 3: You know this this offense you watch that game, Chad,
[38:34] Speaker 3: you saw it. It's it's when it works, it looks
[38:37] Speaker 3: really on and it's you know, it's a great system.
[38:40] Speaker 2: So if Caleb's not the guy, he will be gone.
[38:44] Speaker 3: But at least you can see that you you most
[38:46] Speaker 3: likely have a head coach who he needs to.
[38:48] Speaker 2: Go through his own growing pains as well.
[38:49] Speaker 3: He's going to do stupid stuff, make stupid calls, and
[38:52] Speaker 3: that's just the way it does. I mean, in that game,
[38:54] Speaker 3: they had that pick six in their next five possessions,
[38:57] Speaker 3: I could be wrong, but almost positive because I watched
[38:59] Speaker 3: that game, the next five possessions were either a punt
[39:02] Speaker 3: or a missed field goal. So again they're up seventeen
[39:06] Speaker 3: six and they have all these punts, they have a
[39:10] Speaker 3: miss field goal, and then in the fourth quarter of
[39:12] Speaker 3: the Vikings came back. So you know, at the end
[39:14] Speaker 3: of the day, it's on Caleb chat and that's my
[39:16] Speaker 3: fear here is I We had seth Wickershammel and I
[39:21] Speaker 3: pressed him about the mental makeup of this kid, because
[39:25] Speaker 3: to me, in life, you want adversity, you want someone
[39:30] Speaker 3: that's failed a lot and dealt with, you know, challenges,
[39:35] Speaker 3: and he just seemed like he was so talented. He
[39:37] Speaker 3: just floated through his whole life. And you know, whether
[39:40] Speaker 3: it was in high school Oklahoma USC he was always
[39:44] Speaker 3: great until his last year there. And we're seeing with
[39:46] Speaker 3: that Bears game like there was he had opened guys
[39:49] Speaker 3: he missed and That's that's my fear with Caleb here
[39:52] Speaker 3: where you know, that number seems so big to me
[39:55] Speaker 3: with the Lions.
[39:55] Speaker 2: Because it's still the Lions, that they could have.
[39:59] Speaker 3: Just one bad game and they're legit they'll be fine
[40:02] Speaker 3: this year, or like we keep thinking that offensive line
[40:05] Speaker 3: that's a major issue.
[40:06] Speaker 2: Their offense line.
[40:07] Speaker 3: Is a big problem, and they didn't make adjustments like
[40:11] Speaker 3: Green Bay outschemed them and made better adjustments even in
[40:15] Speaker 3: the second half. I mean, they got a late touchdown
[40:17] Speaker 3: with what like two minutes left the lines. But like
[40:18] Speaker 3: Chad's saying here, there's a lot to be doubtful of
[40:21] Speaker 3: this Lions team. So if anything, I'll just not not
[40:25] Speaker 3: bet this one. But I think and in the day,
[40:28] Speaker 3: if it's under six like it is right now, that's
[40:30] Speaker 3: that's that's good value towards this Lions team that you know,
[40:33] Speaker 3: if they do click, they could roll this Bears team
[40:37] Speaker 3: forty to seventeen.
[40:38] Speaker 2: Like that would not be that shocking. Where couldn't.
[40:42] Speaker 3: I mean, there's a couple of really bad losses Week
[40:44] Speaker 3: one that's up there for the worst loss of the week.
[40:47] Speaker 3: You're at home prime time, seventeen six vibes could not
[40:51] Speaker 3: be higher and just total total train wreck. And you know,
[40:56] Speaker 3: like Chad's doing a little bit of soul searching.
[40:58] Speaker 2: JJ. You can see it right, you see the top ten.
[41:03] Speaker 1: The moxie, a lot of moxie.
[41:05] Speaker 2: The painful part about it, so much moxie.
[41:08] Speaker 1: I I yesterday about five o'clock, five thirty, my buddy
[41:15] Speaker 1: Matt called me. Everyone who's been listening to the show
[41:18] Speaker 1: for years knows Matt. And he says to me, I
[41:23] Speaker 1: say hello. He doesn't even say hello. He just starts
[41:26] Speaker 1: ranting about how much the Bears suck. And it's five thirty.
[41:32] Speaker 1: The game is three hours away. I'm like, what are
[41:35] Speaker 1: you talking about? He goes, I'm just getting it out
[41:38] Speaker 1: of the way because I know this is how I'm
[41:41] Speaker 1: going to feel, and this is what I'm going to
[41:43] Speaker 1: be saying. We were texting there in the game. He
[41:47] Speaker 1: couldn't have been more right. Like everything he said it was.
[41:53] Speaker 2: I don't know you.
[41:53] Speaker 3: I was like, all right, Chad was right about his
[41:56] Speaker 3: Bears being a home divisional dog.
[41:57] Speaker 2: That was right.
[41:58] Speaker 1: But I was right for about we never seventy five
[42:02] Speaker 1: percent of the game.
[42:04] Speaker 3: I've never seen again this rather, JJ, mystique is that
[42:07] Speaker 3: all time, I've never seen a guy in his first
[42:09] Speaker 3: game throw a pick six and then the fourth quarter
[42:13] Speaker 3: score three touchdowns, throw in two rushing for one.
[42:16] Speaker 2: Just again Vikings Baller.
[42:19] Speaker 3: Yeah, you might come crashing and burning, but I would
[42:22] Speaker 3: be very excited because I could not believe what I
[42:24] Speaker 3: was witnessing.
[42:25] Speaker 1: Where this guy there were a few things totally lost.
[42:28] Speaker 1: There were a few things. He looked totally lost and
[42:30] Speaker 1: out of his depth for three quarters. But then Kevin O'Connell,
[42:34] Speaker 1: who we love like. I think he's a top five
[42:38] Speaker 1: coach easily in the NFL what he has done year
[42:41] Speaker 1: after year with Kirk Cousins, then Sam Darnold, now JJ McCarthy.
[42:44] Speaker 2: He's got to win something for me. But I get
[42:46] Speaker 2: where you're coming from.
[42:46] Speaker 1: His ability to turn nothing into something in the middle
[42:51] Speaker 1: of a game. He's the reason they won that game.
[42:54] Speaker 1: He found what would make JJ McCarthy comfortable, put him
[42:57] Speaker 1: in positions to succeed, and the guy throwing lasers at
[43:01] Speaker 1: the end of the game to guys who had to
[43:04] Speaker 1: receivers who had been schemed open, and so just really impressive.
[43:09] Speaker 1: I actually on Twitter this morning and threads I asked
[43:15] Speaker 1: followers to give me a redraft of the twenty twenty
[43:19] Speaker 1: four QB class the six quarterbacks, I said, Jade and
[43:24] Speaker 1: Daniels number one, almost universally. Bo Nicks was number two,
[43:29] Speaker 1: and I'm like, that's fucking stupid, and then JJ. It
[43:33] Speaker 1: was like JJ and Pennox were three and four and
[43:37] Speaker 1: most of it was then Drake May five and Kid
[43:39] Speaker 1: and Cabe Williams six. That's insane, isn't that great? If
[43:44] Speaker 1: you have ideas on this, put in the YouTube chat.
[43:46] Speaker 1: I'm going to respond when I jump in. Give me
[43:48] Speaker 1: your redrafted top six from twenty twenty four. All right,
[43:52] Speaker 1: interesting game coming up. Jets at Buffalo Buffalo six and
[43:55] Speaker 1: a half at hard rock beat right now, big move
[43:57] Speaker 1: on this one. This was at eight and a half.
[44:00] Speaker 1: We both lean Jets, and this was before the Bills
[44:03] Speaker 1: went against the Ravens. Then it moved down considerably at
[44:09] Speaker 1: six and a half. I'd go with the Bills here,
[44:13] Speaker 1: am I sharper? Am I square on that one?
[44:15] Speaker 2: Definitely square.
[44:18] Speaker 3: My view of it is just your read of the
[44:21] Speaker 3: line might have moved too much, couldn't be true. But
[44:23] Speaker 3: at the same time, I think this is the proper
[44:26] Speaker 3: amount of movement for how bad and banged up and
[44:29] Speaker 3: injured that Bill's secondary and defense is like you see
[44:33] Speaker 3: how important having a safety who can come downfield and
[44:36] Speaker 3: tackles like that is everything in football. If you can't
[44:41] Speaker 3: stop the run with your safety, you will give up huge,
[44:45] Speaker 3: huge plays. And what I took from that Jets team
[44:48] Speaker 3: is they're going to scheme up big place Like Briest
[44:50] Speaker 3: Hall is good, Like he's what a year and a
[44:53] Speaker 3: half removed now from that knee injury, and he looked
[44:56] Speaker 3: like he had that step back which was missing, and
[44:58] Speaker 3: that's why people are saying he was a guy that
[45:00] Speaker 3: could be getting traded. You know, this whole preseason everything
[45:03] Speaker 3: like that, and like you know, Justin Field's going back
[45:07] Speaker 3: watching that game.
[45:09] Speaker 2: He had three or four throws that could have.
[45:11] Speaker 3: Been picked sixes, like insanely tight windows, but he made
[45:16] Speaker 3: the throws.
[45:17] Speaker 2: And we've seen it.
[45:17] Speaker 3: When Fields is on, he looks like a top five,
[45:20] Speaker 3: top ten quarterback. It's incredible because he's so athletic, his
[45:24] Speaker 3: delivery is so smooth, and his deep ball looks amazing.
[45:26] Speaker 2: So you know, I want to be there on the Bills.
[45:30] Speaker 3: I agree with Chad like it feels like I should
[45:32] Speaker 3: be more tempted on this Bills team, but on the
[45:35] Speaker 3: road against the Jets. You know, I just could see
[45:39] Speaker 3: the Jets always keeping right behind him, like keeping the
[45:42] Speaker 3: score close. So another game I won't force because the
[45:45] Speaker 3: numbers moved too much. Where at seven and a half
[45:47] Speaker 3: I would have been very more ironics have been very
[45:50] Speaker 3: confident in this Jets team. But we've seen it with
[45:52] Speaker 3: Josh Dowen against bad teams, usually he beats them up.
[45:56] Speaker 3: Wouldn't be shocked if he's got, you know, a double
[45:58] Speaker 3: digit lead. And Justin Fields just has his off day,
[46:01] Speaker 3: which is what he does. He's an up and down quarterback.
[46:03] Speaker 3: So the matchup wise though, it's like Fields he could
[46:08] Speaker 3: rush for one hundred. Like we literally just saw how
[46:11] Speaker 3: bad this team is against the read option. They just
[46:14] Speaker 3: you're trying to have Bosa on the edge stop a read.
[46:18] Speaker 2: Option, not the good bos the older brother. So it's
[46:22] Speaker 2: it's a tough spot for this Bills team.
[46:24] Speaker 3: And yeah, I think your read on the value might
[46:29] Speaker 3: be on the number movie too much is correct. I'm
[46:31] Speaker 3: just you know, I think Thish probably should be closer
[46:34] Speaker 3: to five. It's still six.
[46:35] Speaker 2: And a half.
[46:37] Speaker 3: I am tempting on this Pills team, but it's like, man,
[46:39] Speaker 3: I just I can't get over how bad their defense is.
[46:42] Speaker 3: Where it's like even it's just too much, it's too
[46:45] Speaker 3: big of a number to me for that defense, where
[46:48] Speaker 3: that could be major wrong because Josh Allen is just
[46:50] Speaker 3: that good. Where if he's just tearing up this Jets
[46:53] Speaker 3: defense that just got torn up by Rogers, obviously that
[46:58] Speaker 3: favors Josh Allen this spot.
[47:01] Speaker 1: I don't think Justin Fields is Lamar Jackson, and so.
[47:08] Speaker 2: He's pretty close. I'm gonna say that right.
[47:10] Speaker 1: Now, right, but he's not the passer that he is.
[47:12] Speaker 1: And so I do think that Lamar Jackson's threat as
[47:16] Speaker 1: a passer changes how you play defensively, and the Bills
[47:21] Speaker 1: will scheme to really just make sure Justin Fields can't
[47:24] Speaker 1: be beating them as a runner and only has the
[47:27] Speaker 1: option to pass.
[47:28] Speaker 2: What do you think Pittsburgh did.
[47:30] Speaker 3: Pittsburgh sold out to stop him as a runner, and
[47:34] Speaker 3: he burned him with his legs and the running back Burnham. Again,
[47:37] Speaker 3: Pittsburgh is the was the number one highest paid defense.
[47:41] Speaker 3: They got the guys, and they had a banged up secondary,
[47:43] Speaker 3: and you just saw what Fields did to a banged
[47:46] Speaker 3: up secondary.
[47:46] Speaker 2: That's that's what I'm saying. There's just so many similarities here.
[47:50] Speaker 3: I get your hesitation with fields, but man, this Bill's
[47:54] Speaker 3: defense has so many injuries it's brutal.
[47:57] Speaker 1: I was thinking about adopting new teams in the just
[48:01] Speaker 1: so have something to root for. I settled on the
[48:04] Speaker 1: Ravens over the Bills because the Bills, I felt like,
[48:06] Speaker 1: would just break my heart in the same way as
[48:08] Speaker 1: the Bears would. I think the Ravens are going to
[48:10] Speaker 1: break my hearts in different ways, so I might just
[48:13] Speaker 1: adopt the Ravens in the AFC. Here, the value that
[48:20] Speaker 1: we could have had eight and a half is just
[48:22] Speaker 1: not going to be there, and it's setting up to
[48:25] Speaker 1: be a game where there's so much emotion for the
[48:28] Speaker 1: Jets right now. Classic fade the Jets fade the hype.
[48:35] Speaker 2: But that's the books.
[48:36] Speaker 3: This is going to be the books one of the
[48:37] Speaker 3: Book's biggest needs because you can tease the Bills now
[48:41] Speaker 3: to a pick like That's why that line.
[48:44] Speaker 2: Movement, to me, it was such a huge deal.
[48:46] Speaker 3: The fact that they've crossed into the six and a
[48:48] Speaker 3: half number is it's just going to be heavy, heavy,
[48:51] Speaker 3: heavy Bills money, and they knew what they were doing,
[48:54] Speaker 3: so that's really respected money that came on the Jets
[48:57] Speaker 3: and moved this number. But like you said, Chad, you're
[48:59] Speaker 3: reading it could be right that it could have moved
[49:01] Speaker 3: too much at this point. But this is definitely a
[49:03] Speaker 3: game we're gonna be talking about again on Thursday.
[49:05] Speaker 2: I have no doubt this would be a big wise
[49:08] Speaker 2: guy call.
[49:08] Speaker 1: All right, Look, we still owe people of Chad Love's love.
[49:13] Speaker 1: We still owe people of Simon says, like last week
[49:16] Speaker 1: with the Browns, I wonder if we're gonna have a
[49:19] Speaker 1: little debate over the over who's going to get to
[49:21] Speaker 1: claim ownership on this next game. Seattle at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh
[49:26] Speaker 1: is a three point favorite at Hard Rock Bat and
[49:29] Speaker 1: really across the board, you really like Seattle in week one,
[49:34] Speaker 1: and then I had some critiques about Seattle, which you
[49:37] Speaker 1: scoffed at on Sunday night, and then I actually did
[49:40] Speaker 1: a lot of rewatching of this game, and this line
[49:45] Speaker 1: has actually moved up from two and a half to
[49:47] Speaker 1: three since Sunday. There are lots of reasons to fade
[49:52] Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin as a favorite, and we did it against
[49:56] Speaker 1: the Jets this past weekend. He's not profitable as a
[50:00] Speaker 1: favorite at home either, as he is not on the
[50:03] Speaker 1: road Here's what's tickling me about this game. Seattle's defense
[50:10] Speaker 1: was really excellent against the Niners opening TD drive. They
[50:16] Speaker 1: basically kept the Niners scoreless the rest of the game
[50:19] Speaker 1: until the final drive. The pressure on Purty was relentless.
[50:25] Speaker 1: They limited them to just over three yards per carry.
[50:28] Speaker 1: They were opportunistic. You unpacked that Steelers game and Aaron
[50:35] Speaker 1: Rodgers like. One of his TD passes was a shovel pass,
[50:38] Speaker 1: another was on a short field. He was sacked four times.
[50:41] Speaker 1: His QBR was middle of the pack. He didn't even
[50:44] Speaker 1: attempt to throw more than twenty yards downfield. The defense
[50:48] Speaker 1: for the Steelers, they could not stop the rush more
[50:50] Speaker 1: than one hundred and eighty yards rushing. A lot of
[50:53] Speaker 1: that was Breese Hall, some of that was justin fields.
[50:57] Speaker 1: I'm kind of surprised it moved in the Steelers direction.
[51:00] Speaker 1: I liked Seattle more than I thought it would. Chad
[51:07] Speaker 1: loves love he loves the Seattle Seahawks. Plus three.
[51:12] Speaker 2: But that's the shacker of the day. This is your
[51:15] Speaker 2: favorite bet. Now, I can't.
[51:17] Speaker 1: Really find one that I love, love love.
[51:20] Speaker 3: Bringing back bullying America. Yeah, that's I'm shocked. I like
[51:25] Speaker 3: this number two. I have no fear that it's up
[51:28] Speaker 3: to three. If anything, I am hoping more public money
[51:31] Speaker 3: comes up and the books have to shift it again
[51:33] Speaker 3: to three and a half because right now, like I'm looking,
[51:36] Speaker 3: it's the splits right now, it's all Pittsburgh money, like heavy,
[51:41] Speaker 3: heavy Pittsburgh money right now. So that's what I said.
[51:44] Speaker 3: I hope I said on Sunday night. This is the
[51:47] Speaker 3: exact is why you want to be and you just
[51:48] Speaker 3: want to be patient. Let the masses come and bed
[51:51] Speaker 3: it up. And yeah, this the Seahawks team. Don't know
[51:56] Speaker 3: if they'll win it because that like the Sam Darnold
[51:58] Speaker 3: part of it. But I think you see what I
[52:00] Speaker 3: say about them keeping these type of games close. It's
[52:02] Speaker 3: like these teams that they're pretty much even with, which
[52:04] Speaker 3: is what they were the forty nine ers. They will
[52:07] Speaker 3: keep games close in ugly games, and their defense can
[52:11] Speaker 3: really pull teams down into the mud. And like that's
[52:14] Speaker 3: what I really like about that coach and the way
[52:16] Speaker 3: he coached up this defense of just never beend and break,
[52:20] Speaker 3: like they're just so you know, like there's multiple times
[52:24] Speaker 3: in that fort nine Ers game where I could see
[52:26] Speaker 3: that they were just worn down, right because it was
[52:28] Speaker 3: just never any relentless of Robinson and McCaffrey that combo
[52:32] Speaker 3: for the fort nine ers run game, and they just
[52:34] Speaker 3: never broke, like even at the end with that pretty touchdown,
[52:37] Speaker 3: like we said, it was a fifty to fifty ball
[52:38] Speaker 3: like it could have gone either way. So in this matchup,
[52:43] Speaker 3: like we talked about, just like the Seahawks, and my
[52:46] Speaker 3: hesitation will just be diving more into the whole splits
[52:49] Speaker 3: of West Coast team coming east, playing in this exact
[52:52] Speaker 3: spot after such a brutal, tough divisional game, what that
[52:56] Speaker 3: means for them. And on the flip side, Pittsburgh, I
[53:01] Speaker 3: want to see their injury report because if they are
[53:02] Speaker 3: missing all these guys again from their secondary, this is
[53:05] Speaker 3: the exact type of matchup you want for the Seahawks
[53:07] Speaker 3: and that Kubiak run blocking scheme where they make one
[53:10] Speaker 3: or two guys miss if the linebacker the lineman missed
[53:12] Speaker 3: their assignment, there's going to be gaping holes like we
[53:16] Speaker 3: saw for that Jets team against this Pittsburgh team. So
[53:18] Speaker 3: another game chat where I like run the same page
[53:21] Speaker 3: of plus three. It's a great number. We're praying this
[53:24] Speaker 3: gets a three and a half for the contest. That
[53:26] Speaker 3: would be great value on the Seahawks line.
[53:28] Speaker 1: When you say bring back bullying, Are you mad that
[53:31] Speaker 1: I stole it from you?
[53:33] Speaker 3: No, you just I feel like you were sensitive to me,
[53:37] Speaker 3: Like do you react like I was being me throhe
[53:38] Speaker 3: I was just trying to get you on the same
[53:39] Speaker 3: page of like, don't don't take Pittsburgh here back this
[53:42] Speaker 3: sex team. They're not as bad as that. You know,
[53:46] Speaker 3: game looked offensively like I agreed with you that Darnold
[53:48] Speaker 3: did struggle in some aspects, but that running game, you know,
[53:52] Speaker 3: there there's a lot to like I think going forward
[53:54] Speaker 3: for what that Seahawks is trying to set up with
[53:56] Speaker 3: their running style.
[53:58] Speaker 1: I'm nothing if not open minded. Okay, you know, I'm
[54:02] Speaker 1: willing to see all the angles. I did my research yesterday.
[54:08] Speaker 1: I dug in, I watched some of the game. I
[54:11] Speaker 1: was not I was just not impressed with the Steelers
[54:15] Speaker 1: at all against the Jets. It's partially Colorado. Why I'm
[54:19] Speaker 1: not why I'm less impressed with their win than I
[54:24] Speaker 1: think other people with their with their loss than other
[54:27] Speaker 1: people are. We're is coloring then my feeling about the Bills.
[54:32] Speaker 1: But I just thought Seattle like they dominated that game.
[54:35] Speaker 1: And you said at the beginning of the show. Brock
[54:37] Speaker 1: Purty won that game with a fifty to fifty ball
[54:40] Speaker 1: and then there was a fluky you know, offensive lineman
[54:44] Speaker 1: who runs into Sam Darnold's hand and he fumbles when
[54:47] Speaker 1: they could potentially win the game.
[54:48] Speaker 3: So and this line would be two if they want,
[54:51] Speaker 3: this line would be two one and a half. So,
[54:53] Speaker 3: like we say the time, you take the value, especially
[54:56] Speaker 3: the fact that this is you know, besides the Cowboys,
[55:00] Speaker 3: there's a couple of other games. So this is up there
[55:01] Speaker 3: for the biggest public sid right now in Pittsburgh.
[55:03] Speaker 1: Yep, Denver, Indie Indie plus two line has been move
[55:09] Speaker 1: in from three to two and a half to two.
[55:13] Speaker 1: Not a pros pro joe split exactly, but definitely see
[55:19] Speaker 1: the money starting to come in and tilt towards Indianapolis.
[55:27] Speaker 1: Are you still seeing value on this? On Sunday night
[55:29] Speaker 1: you were liking the Colts. Where do you stand now?
[55:34] Speaker 2: Yeah?
[55:34] Speaker 3: And another spot like I loved it, couldn't believe it
[55:37] Speaker 3: opened at three, took the value Sunday betted again yesterday.
[55:41] Speaker 3: Now like you just said, it's down to two, I'd
[55:44] Speaker 3: still take that. Like I talk all the time, I
[55:46] Speaker 3: key number two is it's going to get the one
[55:48] Speaker 3: and a half. I'm assuming like this this will be
[55:51] Speaker 3: pros rus Jows. I think the public will come in
[55:52] Speaker 3: on this Denver team eventually.
[55:54] Speaker 1: But simon, if the Twitter poll is any indication, people
[56:00] Speaker 1: are still full believers in.
[56:01] Speaker 3: Bow Knicks, right, So I just think they'll throw out
[56:07] Speaker 3: last week's game and you know they'll come in here
[56:09] Speaker 3: and just think that it's all good. And I just think,
[56:13] Speaker 3: you know, a whole off season, you saw tennessee what
[56:16] Speaker 3: they did to bow Knicks to give them problems. That's
[56:18] Speaker 3: what it's like, right, You get a full year playing teams,
[56:21] Speaker 3: have a whole off season to adjust to it, and
[56:24] Speaker 3: they're gonna give them problems. So looking at this matchup,
[56:28] Speaker 3: like I said, Colts, eventually we'll jump off this train.
[56:31] Speaker 3: I just I'm playing the number here. So like at
[56:33] Speaker 3: plus two at hard Rock, that's that's great value. In
[56:36] Speaker 3: my opinion, I go grab that right now. Because you know,
[56:39] Speaker 3: I've talked to a couple other guys who are in
[56:41] Speaker 3: the same mindset of me, and they have money like
[56:43] Speaker 3: I do. They'll be betting this cold side. They're gonna
[56:45] Speaker 3: keep moving this number down. So I think we jump
[56:47] Speaker 3: back on here. Unfortunately for our contest. Talking Thursday, I
[56:51] Speaker 3: don't think we're gonna get it to two and a half.
[56:53] Speaker 3: I think it's gonna go down one and a half,
[56:54] Speaker 3: get closer to a pick, and that's gonna be a
[56:57] Speaker 3: tough choice because that at that point where we're chasing
[56:59] Speaker 3: a number. But yeah, two, if you're hearing this right now,
[57:03] Speaker 3: go grab it. That's good value on this Colts team.
[57:05] Speaker 1: But it's not. Simon says, Nope, that's a free one.
[57:09] Speaker 2: It's just a gift, just a gift.
[57:10] Speaker 1: It's just a gift. Carolina at Arizona. Arizona is a
[57:15] Speaker 1: six and a half point favorite at home. Listen, we
[57:21] Speaker 1: know the sharp side here is to go bet Carolina.
[57:27] Speaker 1: And good for us that we didn't bet Carolina last week.
[57:30] Speaker 1: We did not ask anyone to bet Carolina last week.
[57:33] Speaker 1: We actually beat against Carolina last week. I know we
[57:37] Speaker 1: try to time these spots a bounce back. The only
[57:43] Speaker 1: offensive bright spot for Carolina is Chuba Hubbard. The receiver
[57:50] Speaker 1: depth is so limited, the defense is terrible and has
[57:53] Speaker 1: some injuries. Simon, say your piece.
[58:00] Speaker 3: I thought McMillan played well too, though their first he did.
[58:05] Speaker 1: He played well like six or seven catches and he did.
[58:09] Speaker 1: He did a nice job getting himself open, and like
[58:11] Speaker 1: when they did have drives and sort of sustain any momentum,
[58:15] Speaker 1: it was because Bryce Young was finding him. I'm surprised
[58:19] Speaker 1: you're not saying this is Simon says.
[58:20] Speaker 2: Right now, No, because I'm I'm like you were.
[58:24] Speaker 1: I'ld.
[58:25] Speaker 3: I'm trying to be smart about this Panthers team. And
[58:28] Speaker 3: I did go back and watch their game, and as
[58:32] Speaker 3: bad as as the Cardinals played in some aspects against
[58:35] Speaker 3: that Saint's team, they still might be able to run
[58:39] Speaker 3: for two hundred yards against this Panthers team. Like there
[58:42] Speaker 3: are stuff they do offensively that really favors them in
[58:45] Speaker 3: this matchup.
[58:46] Speaker 2: And you know, Cardinals might have got a steal draft.
[58:50] Speaker 3: They have a corner who's I might be able to
[58:51] Speaker 3: just shut down corner and we Chad just nailed it,
[58:55] Speaker 3: like they don't have if you're taking away now they're
[58:57] Speaker 3: number one pick and there is no feeling safety route
[59:01] Speaker 3: guy And that was pretty apparent for Braces Young in
[59:04] Speaker 3: that game. He didn't have a number two he could trust,
[59:07] Speaker 3: especially on third down. So uh yeah, I'm not going
[59:11] Speaker 3: to force it. I might get there on Thursday. We
[59:14] Speaker 3: sit here right now. I haven't put a penny on
[59:18] Speaker 3: this Panthers number. And my whole mentality is I just
[59:21] Speaker 3: hope there's so much doubt out there like me that
[59:24] Speaker 3: no one touches and we do get a seven, because
[59:26] Speaker 3: once there's a seven, I have to take the Panthers
[59:28] Speaker 3: once against a seven. But six and a half, I
[59:30] Speaker 3: could be patient. I can let this number sit, but
[59:34] Speaker 3: it's another one we'll have to look along and hard
[59:36] Speaker 3: at for survivor chat because this is another good spot
[59:38] Speaker 3: for the Cardinals. But man, this Panthers team, it's so
[59:43] Speaker 3: brutal because I want to believe in them, but they
[59:45] Speaker 3: just have so many gaping issues. And when you just
[59:48] Speaker 3: look at the numbers from that Week one matchup, we'll
[59:51] Speaker 3: see if that was just a Jacks thing. But there
[59:53] Speaker 3: it's incredible how bad they're run defenses. And if you
[59:57] Speaker 3: can't stop the run, you have one of the worst
[59:58] Speaker 3: secondaries on football as well. Offensively, it's it's just tough.
[1:00:02] Speaker 3: There's just nothing else left for them to do defensely
[1:00:05] Speaker 3: to get stops.
[1:00:06] Speaker 1: You know what, I'm still really proud of us that
[1:00:07] Speaker 1: we're not sort of just blindly going with the Panthers
[1:00:12] Speaker 1: at six and a half because we think there's something there,
[1:00:13] Speaker 1: because right now I'm not sure we think there's anything there.
[1:00:17] Speaker 1: Rams at rams at Tennessee, Tennessee plus six. I know
[1:00:22] Speaker 1: we want to take Tennessee. The pros has moved on Tennessee.
[1:00:26] Speaker 1: It's at one point moved from six to five and
[1:00:29] Speaker 1: a half. I got that back up. I don't really
[1:00:31] Speaker 1: know what we learned about the Rams. And we can
[1:00:33] Speaker 1: say the same thing about the Texans when we talk
[1:00:36] Speaker 1: about the Texans and the box in a few minutes.
[1:00:40] Speaker 1: I like cam Ward was pretty terrible. Not the reason
[1:00:44] Speaker 1: they lost the game, but you know, he wasn't anything
[1:00:49] Speaker 1: that we're like, yep, number one pick, going to be
[1:00:51] Speaker 1: in the Hall of Fame, not like he has to be.
[1:00:53] Speaker 1: In the first game. I got no lean here.
[1:00:57] Speaker 2: I gotta send you a clip. He was good.
[1:00:59] Speaker 3: I think cam Ward was good in this game. It's
[1:01:01] Speaker 3: just the team around him, the coaching, all of it.
[1:01:04] Speaker 2: That's that's the issue with Tennessee.
[1:01:06] Speaker 3: And this was almost almost Simon says, but I'm trying
[1:01:11] Speaker 3: to be patient, but there is like to me, when
[1:01:13] Speaker 3: I touched six, it's like, oh my god, the value
[1:01:16] Speaker 3: here is incredible. It's Stafford outdoors, that team outdoors on
[1:01:22] Speaker 3: grass against a Tennessee team that I think people are
[1:01:26] Speaker 3: like Chad, they didn't really think came Ward looked good
[1:01:28] Speaker 3: where I couldn't believe how good he looked against that
[1:01:31] Speaker 3: Bronco's defense. Like there was two different times where he
[1:01:35] Speaker 3: got first downs using his legs and they called it
[1:01:38] Speaker 3: back for holding. I do think the offensive line will
[1:01:40] Speaker 3: get better at that. They'll either be call signs from
[1:01:42] Speaker 3: the sideline like there's there's stuff they can do where
[1:01:45] Speaker 3: they can yell out the note to let go right
[1:01:47] Speaker 3: to not to let go when the defensive defender is
[1:01:49] Speaker 3: pulling away because cam Ward is moving upfield. But you
[1:01:52] Speaker 3: know his weird arm angle you saw give Calvin Rearly
[1:01:56] Speaker 3: some problems, right, he had some major drops in that
[1:01:57] Speaker 3: game again, stuff that I think is going to prove
[1:01:59] Speaker 3: as go long.
[1:02:00] Speaker 2: So to me, I just love this Tennessee team.
[1:02:03] Speaker 3: Maybe I'll make it, try to get you on the
[1:02:05] Speaker 3: same side and may get our ballsy bet again. I
[1:02:07] Speaker 3: just I can't get over the spot, the line value,
[1:02:10] Speaker 3: and the fact that, like you just said it, I
[1:02:13] Speaker 3: think I think the pros are joining the public on
[1:02:16] Speaker 3: this rams side.
[1:02:17] Speaker 2: This number is gonna.
[1:02:18] Speaker 3: Keep going up so in case it doesn't grab the
[1:02:21] Speaker 3: six now, but love this spot for a team that
[1:02:26] Speaker 3: you know, the Rams, they they're skating right. They won
[1:02:30] Speaker 3: their game, so they're not getting much hate, but they
[1:02:33] Speaker 3: didn't look that good against Houston like that.
[1:02:36] Speaker 2: That was really on CJ.
[1:02:37] Speaker 3: Right, CJ sevelling for field goals and not getting touchdowns
[1:02:40] Speaker 3: with the difference of that game in that first half,
[1:02:41] Speaker 3: I think it was nine to seven and a half
[1:02:44] Speaker 3: and then they didn't get at a point maybe the
[1:02:45] Speaker 3: rest of the game that Houston team. So Rams defense
[1:02:48] Speaker 3: could be very legit right now. There's really tough assignment
[1:02:51] Speaker 3: for this offense in Tennessee. But honestly, I look at
[1:02:56] Speaker 3: the match and I'm just like, there's there's ways for
[1:02:58] Speaker 3: Tennessee to win this matchup attack this Rams team, and you.
[1:03:02] Speaker 2: Know Rams coming off that big physical game.
[1:03:05] Speaker 3: Now on the road, now outdoors, let the public keep
[1:03:08] Speaker 3: button it up.
[1:03:09] Speaker 2: Give me a higher than six.
[1:03:10] Speaker 3: I'll take the six now, but at six and a half, Chat,
[1:03:13] Speaker 3: I might might have to force this one in just
[1:03:15] Speaker 3: be like we we might lose it because we know.
[1:03:18] Speaker 2: The deal, right, it's our rookie year playing against Stafford.
[1:03:21] Speaker 3: But too much respect for a Rams team that I
[1:03:24] Speaker 3: think they got a little lucky in their Week one matchup,
[1:03:26] Speaker 3: but I think their defense is being a little overrated
[1:03:28] Speaker 3: now because of it.
[1:03:30] Speaker 1: Philadelphia at Kansas City got a little line flip here.
[1:03:35] Speaker 1: It opened at Chiefs one and a half on Sunday night,
[1:03:39] Speaker 1: it is now Kansas City plus one. You liked the
[1:03:42] Speaker 1: Eagles in this game, and we talked on Sunday night
[1:03:45] Speaker 1: it has flipped. We don't love making that play when
[1:03:50] Speaker 1: a team has gone from one point underdog to one
[1:03:53] Speaker 1: point favorite. We did it with the Ravens. We bet
[1:03:57] Speaker 1: them on Sunday night personally when it had gone from
[1:04:01] Speaker 1: plus one to minus one. A little bit of a
[1:04:04] Speaker 1: kick in the dick. But I think we just think
[1:04:08] Speaker 1: the Eagles have a better roster here, and as you
[1:04:12] Speaker 1: said the other night, I don't think they're practicing these
[1:04:15] Speaker 1: past few days. Is they won a game. Meanwhile, the
[1:04:18] Speaker 1: Chiefs have a rebuilt offensive line that was not very
[1:04:21] Speaker 1: good and now they're going to play against an even
[1:04:23] Speaker 1: angrier Jalen Carter like the Eagles were freakishly balanced in
[1:04:31] Speaker 1: that game against the Cowboys in a way that really
[1:04:35] Speaker 1: highlighted how we're in control of the offense. Jalen hurts
[1:04:38] Speaker 1: Is and how they know their power. Their biggest issue
[1:04:42] Speaker 1: was the lack of discipline, which I believe they will
[1:04:45] Speaker 1: fix because they know how much they can't get away
[1:04:48] Speaker 1: with that against a team like the Chiefs.
[1:04:51] Speaker 2: Yeah, and the Eagles. I think it was some freakish thing.
[1:04:53] Speaker 3: They look the most penalty yards in football in that
[1:04:56] Speaker 3: first half against Dallas, Like just everything felt like is
[1:05:00] Speaker 3: going wrong with that weather delay. And you know Carter
[1:05:04] Speaker 3: plays that game no weather delay. You can see how
[1:05:08] Speaker 3: there's ways that they just roll that Cowboys team, right,
[1:05:11] Speaker 3: because obviously he's the difference in that middle between the
[1:05:14] Speaker 3: run all of such a huge deal. You know, I
[1:05:19] Speaker 3: look at this game and I am just I don't
[1:05:22] Speaker 3: know about you, but it's like this. This is usually
[1:05:25] Speaker 3: me and Chad Auto.
[1:05:26] Speaker 2: Play the Chiefs like there's gonna be an.
[1:05:29] Speaker 3: Underdog at home. I cannot see the public coming on
[1:05:33] Speaker 3: this Chiefs team, honestly. I mean maybe in their teasers, right,
[1:05:36] Speaker 3: if this gets up to one and a half, they'll
[1:05:37] Speaker 3: throw them in up to seven and a half. But
[1:05:39] Speaker 3: betting it's straight, I'm assuming it's going to just be
[1:05:42] Speaker 3: all public money on this Eagles team as long as
[1:05:44] Speaker 3: it's under three and I told Chad I agree with
[1:05:48] Speaker 3: it on Sunday night, and I model it. I don't
[1:05:52] Speaker 3: know if my model understands how big of a deal
[1:05:54] Speaker 3: they're worthy out is. But it's had a pick so technically,
[1:05:57] Speaker 3: you know, right now it's plus one at hard Rock.
[1:06:00] Speaker 3: My model thinks there's value on this Chiefs team. I
[1:06:03] Speaker 3: just disagree. I just I really dive into They look
[1:06:05] Speaker 3: so slow defensively in many ways, and maybe that was
[1:06:09] Speaker 3: because of the travel.
[1:06:10] Speaker 2: But you know, I just their defense and spags.
[1:06:14] Speaker 3: They didn't they didn't make adjustments that really wowed me,
[1:06:17] Speaker 3: and there was feel like there was no move to
[1:06:19] Speaker 3: make where this Eagles team can beat you in so
[1:06:22] Speaker 3: many different ways, and they don't, like, you know, we
[1:06:25] Speaker 3: might not have Dickerson. They might have you know, a
[1:06:28] Speaker 3: substitute in there at the guard position, which is a
[1:06:30] Speaker 3: big deal and that could be a huge game breaker
[1:06:33] Speaker 3: for Kik Chris Jones. But it's like, offensively, I just
[1:06:36] Speaker 3: don't know how the Chiefs keep up with them. Now,
[1:06:37] Speaker 3: if you're out, you're number one, number two receiver and
[1:06:40] Speaker 3: your running back, but check go is not the same guy,
[1:06:43] Speaker 3: and you got a left you know tackle that's a rookie.
[1:06:45] Speaker 3: It's like these things add up about this Chiefs team
[1:06:49] Speaker 3: not being the team of the past that's getting so
[1:06:50] Speaker 3: much respect. So it's hard. Chad, I really hate it
[1:06:54] Speaker 3: because it feels so chalking. We're walking right into it,
[1:06:56] Speaker 3: We're walking right into what we know. It just feels
[1:06:58] Speaker 3: like a trap.
[1:06:59] Speaker 2: But this is a game.
[1:07:01] Speaker 3: I'm gonna wait on talk to people the books. I'm
[1:07:04] Speaker 3: literally gonna be in the books all day today and
[1:07:05] Speaker 3: just talking to people and see what the public is.
[1:07:07] Speaker 3: When I'm assuming I'm in the Philadelphia area, everybody's just
[1:07:10] Speaker 3: gonna be so about this Eagles team.
[1:07:12] Speaker 2: It's gonna push me to love on this Chiefs team.
[1:07:14] Speaker 2: I know it, but I'm.
[1:07:15] Speaker 3: Trying to trying to keep it, keep it one hundred
[1:07:17] Speaker 3: with everyone and just know that it's it's a game.
[1:07:21] Speaker 2: I was confident with it.
[1:07:22] Speaker 3: I guess Sunday night, I'm wavering a little bit just
[1:07:25] Speaker 3: because everything about it.
[1:07:27] Speaker 2: The alarms are going off.
[1:07:28] Speaker 3: Where it's like this is a Chief spot, But I
[1:07:30] Speaker 3: just I can't get over the fact is it a
[1:07:33] Speaker 3: Chief spot? This is not the same Chiefs team of
[1:07:35] Speaker 3: old that me and you blindly back like this is
[1:07:38] Speaker 3: real hesitation. I just breaking it down. I don't know
[1:07:41] Speaker 3: how they move the ball in this Eagles defense. This
[1:07:43] Speaker 3: is again it's the good of the Chargers team is
[1:07:46] Speaker 3: they're not as good as this Eagles defense across the board.
[1:07:49] Speaker 3: So yeah, revenge spot, super Bowl everything, I get it.
[1:07:52] Speaker 3: But you know, me and Chat talked about that travel
[1:07:55] Speaker 3: all of it. It's just it's so negative for this
[1:07:58] Speaker 3: Chiefs team. And you know, it's hard to think, but
[1:08:00] Speaker 3: then being on in two' that's a real thing right now.
[1:08:03] Speaker 2: I think that's something that's actually gonna happen.
[1:08:05] Speaker 1: Look, every year catches up right, and the key to
[1:08:08] Speaker 1: winning at betting sometimes is catching the wave before it crests.
[1:08:14] Speaker 1: And we're trying to do that with the Chiefs right now.
[1:08:21] Speaker 1: And this might be the spot. Atlanta Minnesota, this is
[1:08:26] Speaker 1: the Sunday night football game you still owe us a
[1:08:30] Speaker 1: Simon says, second primetime game in a row for JJ McCarthy,
[1:08:35] Speaker 1: second time being a primetime favorite in as many starts.
[1:08:40] Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna call him JJ moxy. I'm going
[1:08:43] Speaker 1: to coin that right now, trademarket. If you'd like to
[1:08:46] Speaker 1: buy it from me, that's totally cool. I can sell
[1:08:48] Speaker 1: it like it's the late nineties. Like I'm selling you know,
[1:08:52] Speaker 1: internet names. Early money was on Atlanta, but then it
[1:08:56] Speaker 1: all flipped after the game last night, the line up
[1:09:00] Speaker 1: to five and a half for a minute and now
[1:09:01] Speaker 1: has been brought back Atlanta. Sharper Square.
[1:09:13] Speaker 3: Can't believe it, but Simon says, give me the Vikings
[1:09:16] Speaker 3: minus four and a half.
[1:09:17] Speaker 1: Wow, I know.
[1:09:18] Speaker 2: And it's shocking that I would love such a public favorite.
[1:09:21] Speaker 3: Honest, stay in that game. But I'm just grabbing this
[1:09:24] Speaker 3: now in case it does go up to six.
[1:09:26] Speaker 2: I just.
[1:09:28] Speaker 3: Going back and watching that Atlanta team against the Bucks.
[1:09:32] Speaker 3: Atlanta is going to have major issues, like they're they're
[1:09:35] Speaker 3: all line banged up as it is. That's gonna be
[1:09:37] Speaker 3: a problem now when you're going against you know, to
[1:09:40] Speaker 3: me a great defense in the Vikings, that's what Like
[1:09:43] Speaker 3: Gab took a.
[1:09:44] Speaker 2: Lot of shit. He dodged a lot of sacks, like
[1:09:47] Speaker 2: he had.
[1:09:47] Speaker 3: Guys coming on in one on one and he was
[1:09:50] Speaker 3: able to get out of the Penix doesn't move like that.
[1:09:52] Speaker 2: Like Penix is not that type of.
[1:09:53] Speaker 3: Guy in the pocket where if you get him off
[1:09:56] Speaker 3: his spot, he struggles. And you know, when I look
[1:10:00] Speaker 3: at this matchup, I wasn't rushing to bet Nick because
[1:10:03] Speaker 3: I wanted to see what JJ could do. But they
[1:10:06] Speaker 3: match up perfectly against this Atlanta team. They're gonna be
[1:10:10] Speaker 3: able to run the ball for days like that. That's
[1:10:13] Speaker 3: going to be very apparent to people early on this matchup.
[1:10:15] Speaker 3: And you know, it's it's really about the number here.
[1:10:19] Speaker 3: So to me, I have it at six, it's four
[1:10:22] Speaker 3: and a half. I'll take the value on this one.
[1:10:25] Speaker 3: And yeah, it's I'm trying to switch it up because
[1:10:27] Speaker 3: I was literally gonna go Tennessee. But I'm like, Okay,
[1:10:30] Speaker 3: last week I made people take the Browns. Let me
[1:10:32] Speaker 3: give them a favorite here. I think there's good value here,
[1:10:35] Speaker 3: and I do think the public they'll back Atlanta. I
[1:10:39] Speaker 3: honestly believe that. So to me, four and a half.
[1:10:43] Speaker 3: It could go down. But I see the professionals like
[1:10:45] Speaker 3: me getting in this end of their model this Vikings
[1:10:47] Speaker 3: team and being like, wow, this team is legit, Like
[1:10:50] Speaker 3: this is a really good team. And defensively, I think
[1:10:54] Speaker 3: they're going to give the major problems to Penix in
[1:10:56] Speaker 3: this Falcons offense that you know, other than Robinson busting
[1:11:01] Speaker 3: off an insane catch for eighty yards and making everyone miss,
[1:11:05] Speaker 3: I just did not look the way they looked. They
[1:11:06] Speaker 3: just didn't look consistent against the Bucks. And you know Pennix,
[1:11:11] Speaker 3: that was his fourth start. This is a very young
[1:11:13] Speaker 3: quarterback now facing a Flora's defense on the road on
[1:11:16] Speaker 3: Sunday night. So don't be shocked to why this number
[1:11:19] Speaker 3: is so big. I'm telling you it should be closer
[1:11:21] Speaker 3: to six. It's just the public right now. Like I'm
[1:11:24] Speaker 3: looking at the splits, it's actually pretty heavy towards the
[1:11:26] Speaker 3: Atlanta team. So, like Chad said, more maybe people wake
[1:11:29] Speaker 3: up today, there'll be more towards this Vikings team. After
[1:11:32] Speaker 3: that big comeback win, maybe more money will come in
[1:11:34] Speaker 3: this Vikings team. But early money right now looks like
[1:11:36] Speaker 3: it's all Falcons, just because people just don't believe in
[1:11:39] Speaker 3: this Viking team that they should be this big of
[1:11:41] Speaker 3: a favorite. Where I'm telling you it's a really bad
[1:11:43] Speaker 3: spot for this Falcons seemed to be.
[1:11:45] Speaker 1: In Melman likes Seattle on the road as a dog
[1:11:49] Speaker 1: for Chad loves love and Simon says his Minnesota as
[1:11:53] Speaker 1: a favorite and a prime time game. They're two Monday
[1:11:56] Speaker 1: night games this week. Tampa Bay at Houston is the
[1:11:58] Speaker 1: first one, Houston minus two and a half at hard Rock.
[1:12:04] Speaker 1: I just thought all the games that these two teams
[1:12:07] Speaker 1: played were both really strange. The Rams Texans was freakishly even,
[1:12:11] Speaker 1: down to the same exact number of plays for each
[1:12:14] Speaker 1: team total first downs, even the QBS missed this had
[1:12:17] Speaker 1: the same number of incompletions. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay Atlanta could
[1:12:21] Speaker 1: have ended regulation at twenty three if not for a
[1:12:24] Speaker 1: missed field goal. So the line moved from one and
[1:12:28] Speaker 1: a half to two and a half in the first
[1:12:29] Speaker 1: twenty four hours in favor of the Texans. Why are
[1:12:37] Speaker 1: people My first thought is that the professional betters are
[1:12:40] Speaker 1: just more impressed with sort of how the Texans played
[1:12:44] Speaker 1: the Rams than how the Bucks barely beat the Falcons.
[1:12:49] Speaker 3: I'm shore with this too, and I've had like a
[1:12:51] Speaker 3: couple of pros I talked to that was their first
[1:12:53] Speaker 3: bet they made was Houston and imeer with did you
[1:12:57] Speaker 3: I went back and watched the game because I know
[1:13:00] Speaker 3: how much I love Tennessee where it's like, all right,
[1:13:01] Speaker 3: I need to really watch this Rams game and see
[1:13:04] Speaker 3: this type of defense they're running here, and you know, Houston,
[1:13:08] Speaker 3: we knew the deal. They're gonna have this incredible defense.
[1:13:11] Speaker 3: Can they block for CJ? Can they have a running
[1:13:14] Speaker 3: game again, Nick Chubb is not the answer, right. You
[1:13:19] Speaker 3: saw how big of a deal it is that they
[1:13:21] Speaker 3: just don't have a running back in that game. And
[1:13:23] Speaker 3: you know, the Rams knew they were gonna have to
[1:13:25] Speaker 3: beat them with their arm and CJ just couldn't do
[1:13:27] Speaker 3: it right. Like I think Christian Kirk missed the game.
[1:13:30] Speaker 3: He's started this kid Higgins, who's this rookie they drafted
[1:13:33] Speaker 3: this year, and the plan of just doubling Collins and
[1:13:37] Speaker 3: making CJ use these other guys it worked.
[1:13:41] Speaker 2: They totally worked in that game. So I think that's
[1:13:45] Speaker 2: what the Bucks will do here. We're getting plus three? Now?
[1:13:48] Speaker 2: Are we suckers? Are we squares here?
[1:13:50] Speaker 3: Because that's it feels like we're being suckers here because
[1:13:52] Speaker 3: it's like, you know, again, the same type of game.
[1:13:54] Speaker 3: You look at the splits here, all the tickets are
[1:13:57] Speaker 3: on the Bucks, but the money is heavy on this
[1:14:03] Speaker 3: side of Houston.
[1:14:04] Speaker 1: I like, it doesn't make any sense to me.
[1:14:08] Speaker 3: I just think they look at this where the it's
[1:14:10] Speaker 3: it's Houston in a primetime game at home, in a
[1:14:13] Speaker 3: spot of they can't lose, Like they can't lose, They're
[1:14:16] Speaker 3: gonna be so much more desperate and hungry in this
[1:14:18] Speaker 3: exact spot in front of their fans where this historically
[1:14:21] Speaker 3: feels like a type of games Baker and Tampa they
[1:14:24] Speaker 3: do lose, right emotional road wind against a divisional FOAE
[1:14:28] Speaker 3: in Atlanta. Now you're on the road again in a
[1:14:31] Speaker 3: spot where you know they're gonna they're always gonna be desperate.
[1:14:34] Speaker 3: We've seen that playing stuff from Baker. He's just so scrappy.
[1:14:37] Speaker 3: He can play dead.
[1:14:38] Speaker 2: For three quarters and just kill you in the fourth quarter.
[1:14:40] Speaker 3: But yeah, it's I think we're on the same page,
[1:14:43] Speaker 3: like matchup wise, I can't believe this number is up
[1:14:46] Speaker 3: to three now.
[1:14:47] Speaker 2: It's like I have this at two.
[1:14:49] Speaker 3: It's three. Obviously, I think there's value on the Bucks.
[1:14:52] Speaker 3: I'm just waiting to be patient because I know we
[1:14:55] Speaker 3: talk to more pros about this. I just can't believe
[1:14:56] Speaker 3: they think so highly of this Houston's defense that way
[1:15:00] Speaker 3: that they just totally think they're gonna shut down this
[1:15:02] Speaker 3: Bucks offense. And even if you know CJ can't score
[1:15:06] Speaker 3: more than one or two touchdowns, that's gonna be enough
[1:15:08] Speaker 3: to win this game.
[1:15:08] Speaker 2: Because that's that's honestly what they're saying back.
[1:15:11] Speaker 1: On their side, all right, last game Monday night football.
[1:15:14] Speaker 1: We'll definitely discuss that one again on Thursday. We'll get
[1:15:17] Speaker 1: some calls about it. I'm sure Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders.
[1:15:23] Speaker 1: It had been at three and a half Sunday night.
[1:15:26] Speaker 1: I leaned toward Vegas because of the hook, because it's
[1:15:30] Speaker 1: the hook that brings you back. Shout out Blues Traveler.
[1:15:35] Speaker 1: Now the line is three at hard Rocks, so someone's
[1:15:37] Speaker 1: taking the hook. Bruce Bowen, Bruce Bauers, I mean brock Bowers.
[1:15:44] Speaker 1: I'm mixing up San Antonio Spurs ex players and Las
[1:15:48] Speaker 1: Vegas Raiders tight ends. Brock Bowers said yesterday he was fine.
[1:15:53] Speaker 1: I was just grabbing the hook. That feels like the
[1:15:56] Speaker 1: sharp side to me. Not a strong opinion of this
[1:16:00] Speaker 1: game is a three.
[1:16:01] Speaker 3: Agree, don't force the people. There's three and a half's
[1:16:03] Speaker 3: out there, go grab it. Like hard Rock, even in Jersey,
[1:16:07] Speaker 3: the three and a half is gone, so it doesn't
[1:16:09] Speaker 3: matter what state you're in, hard Rock that three is
[1:16:11] Speaker 3: going to be where they're at.
[1:16:12] Speaker 2: So we're in the same page. Like I like the Raiders.
[1:16:17] Speaker 3: But going back and watching that Chargers game, I don't
[1:16:23] Speaker 3: know if it is the Madison beer effect, but the
[1:16:26] Speaker 3: confidence and swagger that Herbert had.
[1:16:31] Speaker 2: My god, my god, Like that.
[1:16:33] Speaker 3: Was everything we've been waiting to see right like because
[1:16:36] Speaker 3: they put the stat up. The reason I'm a Herbert
[1:16:39] Speaker 3: hater is because he had eleven straight games where he
[1:16:42] Speaker 3: lost when the total points were under three. So if
[1:16:47] Speaker 3: he's down by three, he had lost eleven straight games
[1:16:49] Speaker 3: in that exact scenario. So to me, him stepping up
[1:16:53] Speaker 3: big in that fourth quarter just totally alternating my brain
[1:16:56] Speaker 3: with him right now, where it's like, even at this
[1:16:59] Speaker 3: number three, I'm like, man, that's a Chargers line here.
[1:17:03] Speaker 3: Like to me, they're pretty good, Like they're looking like
[1:17:09] Speaker 3: if they can put it together like they did against
[1:17:11] Speaker 3: that Chiefs team, they're gonna be a team that you know,
[1:17:15] Speaker 3: potentially will win this division because it's at the end
[1:17:18] Speaker 3: of the day, it's all on Herbert. People can make
[1:17:19] Speaker 3: excuses like you didn't have weapons, oh my god, the defense,
[1:17:23] Speaker 3: the coaching, I agree with all of it, but you
[1:17:26] Speaker 3: see the talent level of Herbert. There's a reason these
[1:17:28] Speaker 3: people who even though he's never done anything in his
[1:17:31] Speaker 3: entire career, make him a top five quarterback. Like the
[1:17:34] Speaker 3: raw talent, the athleticism, it is all there. So if
[1:17:38] Speaker 3: he's clicking. We got no prayer. We have no prayer
[1:17:42] Speaker 3: for this Vegas team if he is clicking like he
[1:17:44] Speaker 3: was against that Chiefs team. Because you know, I get
[1:17:46] Speaker 3: our love for this Raiders team. They beat Drake May like.
[1:17:51] Speaker 3: That's that like their secondary, that's their biggest weakness. It
[1:17:55] Speaker 3: wasn't truly tested, right, Stefan Diggs did impress them Like
[1:17:59] Speaker 3: Lad McConkie. He's from a different planet compared to Steph
[1:18:03] Speaker 3: on Digs at this as this point in his career,
[1:18:04] Speaker 3: So I'm glad we're not forcing this one in you
[1:18:08] Speaker 3: know three and a half that was staring at me.
[1:18:11] Speaker 2: I think the same thing as you on Sunday.
[1:18:12] Speaker 3: Night, where it's like that it's really good value on
[1:18:14] Speaker 3: this Raiders team, and it was all about Bowers. If
[1:18:17] Speaker 3: Bowers is good to go, that makes it even better
[1:18:19] Speaker 3: of a number. But at three two and a half,
[1:18:22] Speaker 3: I'm leaning towards the Charger's time. I literally have this
[1:18:24] Speaker 3: number three. So at three I won't force it, but
[1:18:27] Speaker 3: I do like charges at three minus two and a half.
[1:18:29] Speaker 3: But at three and a half, if I got to
[1:18:31] Speaker 3: make a play on it, to me, that's the value.
[1:18:33] Speaker 2: That's that Raiders number all right.
[1:18:36] Speaker 1: I don't think I skipped any games. I got them all.
[1:18:40] Speaker 1: We got a list to review, really fascinating lists, some
[1:18:43] Speaker 1: numbers that were just waiting to see how they move
[1:18:46] Speaker 1: before we can make a decision about are we going
[1:18:49] Speaker 1: further into the conversation with betting? How do they shape
[1:18:51] Speaker 1: up for our contest. Chad loves Love is Seattle plus three,
[1:18:56] Speaker 1: Simon says is Minnesota minus four and a half. This
[1:19:01] Speaker 1: has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network.
[1:19:04] Speaker 1: We are presented by hard Rock Bat. We'll be back
[1:19:06] Speaker 1: on Thursday with the games we are zeroing in on,
[1:19:09] Speaker 1: plus our Survivor Picks, our head to head battle, our
[1:19:11] Speaker 1: brass Ball, so much more. Watch or listen on YouTube
[1:19:15] Speaker 1: at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel
[1:19:17] Speaker 1: also downloads some Spotify, Apple Pod wherever you get your pods.
[1:19:21] Speaker 1: Subscribe rate review feedback is always the gift. Don't forget.
[1:19:26] Speaker 1: We are collecting all the reviews in these early weeks
[1:19:29] Speaker 1: and we will start reading some of them on the show.
[1:19:32] Speaker 1: The winner from the moment of the contest that we
[1:19:36] Speaker 1: find to be the funniest, the one that makes us laugh,
[1:19:40] Speaker 1: and one that most represents how you connect with the show.
[1:19:43] Speaker 1: You know it's completely subjective. You're going to get some
[1:19:45] Speaker 1: premium sweat until next time. Love you,

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