# Colin Cowherd Podcast - Rams Bury The Niners, Belichick One And Done? Sharp Or Square - Betting NFL Week 15!

An episode of [The Colin Cowherd Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1551365571), 13 Dec 2024, 52 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/arttrk.com/p/D5CA5/pscrb.fm/rss/p/prfx.byspotify.com/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/4013d28e-5f67-4885-bff1-ae3300346830/61e35b0a-32d5-43ba-a8d0-b2450053b204/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=e829cf60-fc06-4d61-8691-ae330034683e

Colin reacts to the Rams outlasting the 49ers in a sloppy, rainy Monday Night Football game! He points out that Brock Purdy proves to be just “a guy” when the Niners don't have their full compliment of weapons to injuries, and when contrasted with Matt Stafford… doesn’t have the same franchise quarterback appeal (3:45). He also shovels dirt on the 49ers season and explains why the team needs a rebuild. He explains why he believes that Bill Belichick will only coach one year at UNC after it was revealed his contract buyout is only $1 million dollars after year one (10:45). Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 15 of the NFL slate plus a look ahead at college football! Then the pod goes completely off the rails with some UFO talk! 22:15 - Bills vs Lions 25:30 - Steelers vs Eagles 28:30 - Broncos vs Colts 32:00 - Packers vs Seahawks 34:00 -Bears vs Vikings 36:00 - Titans vs Bengals 38:00 - Browns vs Chiefs 45:00 - Ohio State vs Tennessee 47:45 - Belichick’s outlook at UNC 55:00 - UFO Theories Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Volume #Herd See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

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[1:15] Speaker 2: instant reaction. We have all sorts of stuff I'm gonna
[1:17] Speaker 2: give you about twelve to fifteen minutes on the Rams Niners,
[1:20] Speaker 2: and some Belichick thoughts something was uncovered tonight. That's fascinating.
[1:24] Speaker 2: Chad Millman, Sharper Square. We're gonna also talk Belichick and UFOs.
[1:30] Speaker 2: You know why not. So the Rams beat the forty
[1:34] Speaker 2: nine ers twelve to six. So the first thing is
[1:36] Speaker 2: I did I stayed away from this game. I wouldn't
[1:38] Speaker 2: touch it. I could have done a DraftKings bet, I said,
[1:41] Speaker 2: I there's too many injuries, weather, it's shaky, and the
[1:45] Speaker 2: Rams just played a flawless football game against Buffalo. Then
[1:48] Speaker 2: you got to get on a plane Wednesday, flight to
[1:50] Speaker 2: arrival division game like added no what? I just I
[1:54] Speaker 2: knew the Rams were gonna be off. You cannot play
[1:58] Speaker 2: a game against a team like Buffalo, a high stakes
[2:01] Speaker 2: game and be flawless, even with men. This isn't college.
[2:05] Speaker 2: But to go on the road against your rival Green
[2:08] Speaker 2: Laws back Bosa played. So they won and you have
[2:11] Speaker 2: to be healthy. But they won and you have to
[2:14] Speaker 2: be happy. But here's the thing. So all these wide receivers,
[2:18] Speaker 2: do you know Tyreek Hill, Jamar Chase, and Deebo Samuel's
[2:23] Speaker 2: record this year seventeen and twenty three. Top five rushing
[2:27] Speaker 2: teams are all right now in the playoffs, you gotta
[2:31] Speaker 2: be careful with DIVA wide receivers. Deebo wants the ball.
[2:36] Speaker 2: Oh Debo can't catch the ball tonight on an underneath
[2:40] Speaker 2: route where he had a chance to peel off a
[2:42] Speaker 2: huge play, potentially a touchdown, and they settled for a
[2:45] Speaker 2: field goal. You could clearly see the Niners trying to
[2:49] Speaker 2: appease Debo and get in the ball and force it.
[2:54] Speaker 2: I like him better as a running back than a
[2:56] Speaker 2: receiver anyway. I think his yards after the catch and
[2:58] Speaker 2: his running ability is much greater than his separation ability.
[3:02] Speaker 2: I think he's become sort of a banged up poor
[3:04] Speaker 2: man's and Kwon Bolden that you know doesn't separate. But
[3:08] Speaker 2: he's physically tough and a nice player. But this is
[3:11] Speaker 2: so you have young brock Purdy, you know, doesn't want
[3:14] Speaker 2: to lose Debo. Ayyuk's already out for the year. Trent Williams,
[3:18] Speaker 2: Christian McCaffrey hurt. So Deebo picks the worst time to,
[3:21] Speaker 2: you know, be high maintenance because you know pretty's young.
[3:26] Speaker 2: He doesn't have Ayyuk. You know, Kittle is tremendous, but
[3:30] Speaker 2: a lot of teams now are taking him out and
[3:32] Speaker 2: spending a lot of coverage on him. So they forced
[3:35] Speaker 2: a debo and this is what you get. Biggest game
[3:37] Speaker 2: of the year for the Niners, one hundred and ninety
[3:39] Speaker 2: seven total yards. You know it, brock pretty in thirteen starts.
[3:45] Speaker 2: Everybody talks about him getting paid big money. It's a
[3:47] Speaker 2: big mistake. I don't buy it. I never have. Doesn't
[3:51] Speaker 2: have Christian McCaffrey, doesn't have Trent Williams in thirteen starts
[3:55] Speaker 2: this year, fifteen touchdowns, nine picks, and you want to
[3:59] Speaker 2: pay him fifty five million dollars the minute you take
[4:03] Speaker 2: away his best players. He is a guy. He didn't
[4:06] Speaker 2: get passed by everybody in this draft. You know, during
[4:09] Speaker 2: Tom Brady's run, there were more sleepers. You find occasional sleepers,
[4:14] Speaker 2: but scouting departments now are much more sophisticated. You know,
[4:18] Speaker 2: in Brady's era, you didn't have all the YouTube stuff.
[4:21] Speaker 2: You didn't have the ability to see some of these
[4:23] Speaker 2: college games. They're all on television. Now, it's just really
[4:27] Speaker 2: hard to hide people. Staffs are bigger, Scouting departments are bigger.
[4:32] Speaker 2: There's just more sophistication. You know, Rock Purty dropped to
[4:36] Speaker 2: the seventh round. He's small, he doesn't have a big arm.
[4:38] Speaker 2: He's athletic but not special. Hands are a bit small,
[4:42] Speaker 2: you know, And you're watching a guy that when you
[4:44] Speaker 2: lose people, what do you get? And conversely, tonight, Matt
[4:48] Speaker 2: Stafford very very rough first half. I mean it was
[4:52] Speaker 2: like the Niners defense had the Rams playbook. They knew
[4:55] Speaker 2: where he was. He was just trying to beg in
[4:57] Speaker 2: to throw an interception. And yet he showed exactly why
[5:01] Speaker 2: he's a real franchise player on those big drives late third,
[5:04] Speaker 2: early fourth quarter, using his feet two or three times
[5:08] Speaker 2: ducking out of stuff, really big third down throw. I
[5:11] Speaker 2: wrote this big third down throw to Colby Parkinson late
[5:16] Speaker 2: whereas pretty previously in the fourth quarter had a really
[5:20] Speaker 2: really ugly end zone pick. You saw the real separation
[5:25] Speaker 2: here Rams, short week of a highly emotional game on
[5:30] Speaker 2: the road division rival. Neither team has their fastball. Stafford
[5:35] Speaker 2: in the second half after a shaky first really made
[5:39] Speaker 2: all the big throws. And because the coaches are both great,
[5:43] Speaker 2: the offensive lines are good, not great, And that's the
[5:47] Speaker 2: separation between the two. Yeah, I'm looking at this two
[5:51] Speaker 2: big drives Stafford in the second half. That's the ball game.
[5:55] Speaker 2: And you know, people, people think I'm anti Purty no,
[5:59] Speaker 2: but somebody's got to pop the balloon on this nonsense.
[6:03] Speaker 2: I think Pretty is a less athletic Dak. Now, Dak
[6:07] Speaker 2: after a second surgery here is going to be even
[6:10] Speaker 2: less athletic. He lost mobility after his first surgery. He'll
[6:13] Speaker 2: be less athletic. You're seeing what it's doing to Aaron Rodgers.
[6:16] Speaker 2: You're saying what it's doing to Kirk Cousins. He's younger,
[6:19] Speaker 2: but he won't be the same. And this is what
[6:22] Speaker 2: holds the Cowboys back. They're paying a B quarterback A
[6:24] Speaker 2: plus money. If you pay Pretty A minus money, he's
[6:28] Speaker 2: a he's a B quarterback. You just still want to
[6:30] Speaker 2: get into that space. Pittsburg will probably pay Russell Wilson.
[6:33] Speaker 2: They're going to pay him B quarterback money. Darnold could
[6:37] Speaker 2: be franchise tag for forty million, forty one million, but
[6:40] Speaker 2: that's B quarterback money. And I've said this, I wrote
[6:44] Speaker 2: the Niners obituary three or four weeks ago. I don't
[6:47] Speaker 2: think this is a tweak. I don't think it's a tweak.
[6:51] Speaker 2: I think I both Ayuk and Deebo are now pretty verbal.
[6:56] Speaker 2: Don't neither seems terribly happy. Kittle's horrific, but he's a
[7:01] Speaker 2: tight end. He is aging. Trent Williams doesn't have much
[7:05] Speaker 2: left on the tires, so I think they have to
[7:07] Speaker 2: rebuild both offensive lines. And conversely, the Rams are really
[7:12] Speaker 2: well coached. I said, outside of the Lions, I'm not
[7:16] Speaker 2: sure there's a team in the league that has a
[7:19] Speaker 2: better offensive head coach, quarterback, star running back, and two
[7:24] Speaker 2: elite receivers. And they're doing it without Tyler higgsby their
[7:28] Speaker 2: top tight end, who is coming back soon. So is
[7:31] Speaker 2: the Rams. Offensive line has gotten healthier over the last month.
[7:35] Speaker 2: Stafford's been exceptional. You noticed it tonight. He had better protection.
[7:39] Speaker 2: Now they're getting their tight end back to go along
[7:43] Speaker 2: with Colby Parkinson and David Allen, So all of a sudden,
[7:47] Speaker 2: now the Rams are healthy down the stretch, and I
[7:50] Speaker 2: think they can play with anybody. Now. They're defense, they're
[7:51] Speaker 2: a little like the Packers. They feel like they're a
[7:53] Speaker 2: tad young. The Packers are young on offense. The Rams
[7:57] Speaker 2: feel a little young on defense, and they still need
[7:59] Speaker 2: a number one corner in the draft. But this is
[8:02] Speaker 2: a real RAMS team, and I think they solidified their
[8:05] Speaker 2: playoffs tonight. It's a quarterback coach league, and nothing against Shanahan,
[8:09] Speaker 2: but he's got pretty and Stafford and McVeigh are another level.
[8:14] Speaker 2: So congratulations. So I want to add this because this
[8:17] Speaker 2: came down tonight. So Chad Melbourne and I talks in Belichick,
[8:21] Speaker 2: but I didn't have this information. So I made the
[8:23] Speaker 2: prediction today on FS one. I said, my take is
[8:27] Speaker 2: Bill Belichick, easy schedule Carolina. It's going to win eight
[8:31] Speaker 2: or nine games and maybe get to the playoff, but
[8:34] Speaker 2: get to a big Bowl. But I don't necessarily think
[8:37] Speaker 2: he'll coach in that bowl. I think Belichick is going
[8:40] Speaker 2: to get irritated. His coaching and his structure and the
[8:45] Speaker 2: personnel with Mike Lombardi will be fine. I don't think
[8:48] Speaker 2: those guys are long term fits at the college level.
[8:51] Speaker 2: They've got a very Charlie weissfield but even more blunt,
[8:54] Speaker 2: and Belichick's got so much power, and because Lombardi's his friend,
[9:00] Speaker 2: Lombardi's got power. I think they'll it could be pretty rough.
[9:03] Speaker 2: They're pretty terse, blunt, you know, outspoken guys, both very
[9:09] Speaker 2: very talented. I know Mike Lombardi is very talented guy,
[9:11] Speaker 2: and I wish him both well. But it comes out tonight.
[9:14] Speaker 2: Belichick Steele has a buyout of only one million dollars
[9:19] Speaker 2: and he can leave after June first this year. Now,
[9:25] Speaker 2: he's not going to duh and nobody hires a coach
[9:28] Speaker 2: after June first, obviously, But I said today, I think
[9:33] Speaker 2: he's going to coach one year and go back and
[9:36] Speaker 2: get an offer in the NFL. And I think he's
[9:38] Speaker 2: going to hand it over to his son. So there's
[9:41] Speaker 2: some things that will come out in the contract. And
[9:44] Speaker 2: I do think Bill wanted the Bear's job. They're not interested.
[9:49] Speaker 2: I think he's really interested in the Jacksonville job. They're
[9:52] Speaker 2: not interested. Mike Rabel. By the way, and I talked
[9:55] Speaker 2: to Mike Brabel for about fifteen minutes this morning, and
[9:58] Speaker 2: I'm not going to give a lie details of that,
[10:01] Speaker 2: but you know, one of the things I told Mike,
[10:04] Speaker 2: I said, you're now the number one candidate. I'm just
[10:06] Speaker 2: not sure there are any jobs worthy of your coaching ability.
[10:11] Speaker 2: I think next year is a much more interesting year.
[10:13] Speaker 2: If you look at Zach Taylor Cincinnati, I think he'll
[10:17] Speaker 2: retain his job. I'm not sure if he'll retain it
[10:20] Speaker 2: if the Bengals have another season like this, keep your
[10:23] Speaker 2: eye on that. I think Mike McCarthy will keep his
[10:25] Speaker 2: job potentially, and so will Brian Dable. But both the
[10:29] Speaker 2: Giants with a Shador Sanders at quarterback and the Cowboys
[10:34] Speaker 2: could have openings. I think the openings this year too
[10:36] Speaker 2: many impulsive odd ownership executive areas Jets, Bears, Jacksonville. But
[10:44] Speaker 2: Belichick say it again. I said it on the air today.
[10:47] Speaker 2: I think he'll stay one year in Bolt his contract.
[10:50] Speaker 2: He could bolt after June first this year. He's not
[10:53] Speaker 2: going to. But my prediction he'll leave after one year.
[10:58] Speaker 2: And Bill Parcells twice broadcasting Bolted told people I'm going
[11:02] Speaker 2: to stay at Bolted. Bill's a coach. Sean Payton stayed
[11:04] Speaker 2: for a year, loved it. I mean, Sean really loved
[11:07] Speaker 2: working as an analyst. He left Bill Belichick's coach, and
[11:12] Speaker 2: I do think he'll I mean, I saw and talked
[11:14] Speaker 2: at length today about the schedule at North Carolina. The
[11:18] Speaker 2: a SEC is so bad. I mean, he gets Clemson
[11:21] Speaker 2: at home. They're not another game that he can't win.
[11:24] Speaker 2: Syracuse on the road could be little dicey, but so
[11:28] Speaker 2: it's just interesting. In order for that to be in
[11:31] Speaker 2: the contract, Bill Belichick demanded that it was in the
[11:34] Speaker 2: contract because, as I told you, Jimmy Sexton, the top
[11:36] Speaker 2: agent in college football, he's not sending his top clients there.
[11:40] Speaker 2: And Belichick's not represented by Jimmy Sexton. So this is
[11:44] Speaker 2: not a very highly coveted job because the push and
[11:49] Speaker 2: pull between kind of academics and football. The chancellor, I
[11:53] Speaker 2: think it's always been a little bit of a sleeping giant,
[11:56] Speaker 2: but it's had some good years with mac Brown the
[11:58] Speaker 2: first time and mac Brown the second time. But to
[12:01] Speaker 2: get that in the contract, you wanted it in the
[12:04] Speaker 2: contract and demanded it be in the contract. Okay, I've
[12:08] Speaker 2: never seen a contract stipulation like that that he could
[12:11] Speaker 2: leave basically after June first, and again, he's not leading
[12:13] Speaker 2: this year. That's never what I said, but I do
[12:16] Speaker 2: my prediction he will leave after one year. He would
[12:20] Speaker 2: deny that, obviously, But college football is I mean, you're
[12:25] Speaker 2: seeing on a weekly basis guys that love college football,
[12:30] Speaker 2: young coaches talk about how frustrating the portal, the lack
[12:35] Speaker 2: of regulations, and the NIL is. I still contend the
[12:38] Speaker 2: NIL should have about an eighteen million dollars salary cap.
[12:41] Speaker 2: NFL's got one. Otherwise you're going to get a separation
[12:44] Speaker 2: of Texas Band forty million and spending three I just
[12:49] Speaker 2: it will be. It will be, you know, even the
[12:52] Speaker 2: disparity between the top and the bottom will be even
[12:55] Speaker 2: greater than it is now. And it's pretty great now.
[12:58] Speaker 2: So that's the latest. Congrats to the Rams, gutt you win,
[13:01] Speaker 2: Stavord and McVeigh. That's why you pay him the big bucks.
[13:05] Speaker 2: Belichick's deal, that is a very interesting clause, one that
[13:10] Speaker 2: he wanted or he wouldn't have fought for it, and
[13:13] Speaker 2: one that North Carolina agreed with. North Carolina is telling you, hey,
[13:18] Speaker 2: just bringing you on campus, getting the publicity, elevating our
[13:22] Speaker 2: nil from four million to eighteen to twenty million, adding
[13:26] Speaker 2: a professional structure to our program. Hey, we appreciate it.
[13:29] Speaker 2: We need that the world's changing and we're not ready
[13:32] Speaker 2: for it. And if you're willing in one year, give
[13:35] Speaker 2: us at least one full year. And I think even
[13:39] Speaker 2: though that's in the contract, I think it's understood. Bill
[13:41] Speaker 2: wouldn't bolt June second. Nobody's hiring coaches. Then all right,
[13:45] Speaker 2: Chad Millman, here we go. Well, It's the most wonderful
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[15:12] Speaker 2: Right time for another edition. We released this on Thursday
[15:15] Speaker 2: night and the YouTube channel or Friday on the podcast
[15:18] Speaker 2: Sharper Square. Chad Millman co host of the Favorites. All
[15:21] Speaker 2: of our odds provided by DraftKings, So last week a
[15:25] Speaker 2: lot of favorites were in favor for me and didn't
[15:28] Speaker 2: necessarily do well. I'm still surprised how the Rams played
[15:33] Speaker 2: perhaps the most flawless half too game of offensive football
[15:38] Speaker 2: by any team on the season. I was just watching
[15:41] Speaker 2: some clips of it today and they did everything right.
[15:44] Speaker 2: Nobody dropped a pass, ball, never hit the turf, no holding.
[15:49] Speaker 2: It was a thing of art. And it's interesting because
[15:54] Speaker 2: now this week you get the Bills getting two and
[15:56] Speaker 2: a half at the Lions, and I like the Bills here,
[16:00] Speaker 2: use they're getting Kincaid, the tight end is healthy, they're
[16:05] Speaker 2: getting Coleman back. It was almost as if it was
[16:10] Speaker 2: this Sandwich game, even though it's McVeigh and Stafford. You know,
[16:14] Speaker 2: Buffalo travels west. They know half the stadium is going
[16:16] Speaker 2: to be theirs. They're looking at that Detroit game even
[16:19] Speaker 2: though it's not an AFC or a divisional game. And
[16:22] Speaker 2: they had a couple of guys on the cusp that
[16:24] Speaker 2: could play or not, and they elected not, and they
[16:27] Speaker 2: got caught flat footed when the Rams played a flawless game.
[16:31] Speaker 2: So I like Buffalo plus two and a half now
[16:34] Speaker 2: sharper square.
[16:36] Speaker 4: Well, the line has moved from one and a half
[16:40] Speaker 4: Detroit to two and a half Detroit. And I will
[16:45] Speaker 4: tell you that the majority of betting tickets have been
[16:49] Speaker 4: coming in on the Buffalo Bills. So when you see
[16:53] Speaker 4: a line move that goes in the direction of one
[16:56] Speaker 4: side that is opposite where the betting tickets are, that's
[17:00] Speaker 4: a reverse line move, and that sizes you. The professional
[17:03] Speaker 4: betters are on the Lions, and they've been on the
[17:06] Speaker 4: Lions at one and a half and two at two
[17:08] Speaker 4: and a half. You start to see the pressure point
[17:12] Speaker 4: you'll find an equal number who still like the Lions
[17:14] Speaker 4: at two and a half, and they take it up
[17:15] Speaker 4: to three, and you'll find the number of wise guys
[17:18] Speaker 4: who are coming in at two and a half on
[17:20] Speaker 4: the Bills and liking the Bills because they like Josh Allen.
[17:23] Speaker 4: I will tell you I'm a Lions backer. In this game,
[17:26] Speaker 4: I bettered at one and a half, I bettered at two.
[17:29] Speaker 4: As healthy as the Bills are starting to get with
[17:32] Speaker 4: players coming back, this may be the healthiest the Lions
[17:35] Speaker 4: have been in eight weeks. They could get a lot
[17:38] Speaker 4: of guys back on the defensive line that has just
[17:41] Speaker 4: been decimated over the past three to four weeks. Also,
[17:45] Speaker 4: the Lions haven't played on the road since November twenty
[17:50] Speaker 4: fourth at the Colts. They haven't played period for ten days.
[17:55] Speaker 4: You talk about the Bills, they just had a gauntlet, right,
[17:59] Speaker 4: They had the Chiefs, they had the Niners. Those were
[18:02] Speaker 4: massive games for them, getting over huge humps. They go
[18:06] Speaker 4: on the road, have an intense, nearly perfect game that
[18:11] Speaker 4: just isn't perfect enough against the Rams. Now they got
[18:13] Speaker 4: to go on the road again against what might be
[18:15] Speaker 4: the best team in the NFL, and they could face
[18:17] Speaker 4: them in the Super Bowl. So you know you're not
[18:21] Speaker 4: wrong by betting the Bills at two and a half.
[18:24] Speaker 4: But if you said I like the Lions, you'd be
[18:26] Speaker 4: on the sharp side too. It's a pretty even split
[18:29] Speaker 4: at this number. Just at this number.
[18:32] Speaker 2: Okay, Steelers getting five and a half at the Eagles.
[18:34] Speaker 2: And the reason I like this is because Pittsburgh's mostly
[18:37] Speaker 2: been a pretty good team against the run. If you
[18:40] Speaker 2: look at what the Eagles have decided to do since
[18:43] Speaker 2: the buy, it is throw the ball less. Green Bay's
[18:46] Speaker 2: doing this too. They are a run first team, as
[18:48] Speaker 2: they should be. Their best player is Saq One. Their
[18:50] Speaker 2: second best player is AJ Brown. I think Pittsburgh can
[18:54] Speaker 2: have some vulnerabilities against the pass, but I don't think
[18:58] Speaker 2: Jalen hurts from the hocket. I mean, AJ Brown's not
[19:01] Speaker 2: happy he's only getting six and a half targets. Mike
[19:04] Speaker 2: Tomlin is the best underdog coach in the league. Four
[19:09] Speaker 2: and a half points. These two don't play very often.
[19:12] Speaker 2: It feels like a lot of points to a very
[19:15] Speaker 2: good roster. Even if Pittsburgh lost, If Pickens plays, they
[19:21] Speaker 2: have enough big play ability to back door cover. The
[19:26] Speaker 2: line seems out of whack. I'll take the Steelers Sharper square.
[19:30] Speaker 1: Yeah, it's sharp.
[19:31] Speaker 4: And this is what we talked about on the Favorites
[19:33] Speaker 4: podcast was why isn't this number three? Why isn't this
[19:37] Speaker 4: number three and a half? When the number is so
[19:40] Speaker 4: out of whack, you either are being asked to do
[19:44] Speaker 4: something that is too easy, which the books never do,
[19:47] Speaker 4: or you feel like you're missing something. I don't know
[19:50] Speaker 4: what we're missing here. Like you just mentioned, Tomlin is
[19:52] Speaker 4: the best underdog coach in the league. Tomlin is the
[19:55] Speaker 4: best underdog coach in a generation. Let's put this in perspective.
[20:00] Speaker 4: You win fifty three percent of your bets. You're an
[20:03] Speaker 4: incredible sports better, right, that's what you're looking for. So
[20:07] Speaker 4: when we talk about trends, and we talk about analytics
[20:11] Speaker 4: on certain opportunities and metrics and betting, if we can
[20:15] Speaker 4: find a trend that is fifty six percent against the
[20:17] Speaker 4: spread over in historically relevant period of time, you tend
[20:21] Speaker 4: to want to play that if all the other factors
[20:24] Speaker 4: are in your direction. Tomlin, he's sixty plus percent in
[20:30] Speaker 4: just about every category. As an underdog, you say, all right,
[20:34] Speaker 4: between three and seven two key numbers, sixty seven percent,
[20:37] Speaker 4: you say on the road, as a dog sixty four percent,
[20:41] Speaker 4: like you can't name a category where he's not sixty
[20:43] Speaker 4: plus percent. And then if you look at the matchup too,
[20:46] Speaker 4: you mentioned Saquan right, the Eagles are the only team
[20:49] Speaker 4: in the NFL that is running the ball at a
[20:51] Speaker 4: higher percenters and they're passing the ball, and I would
[20:54] Speaker 4: not think, oh my god, Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown
[20:58] Speaker 4: there's you know, strife and now they're getting along again.
[21:02] Speaker 4: Doesn't mean that Kellen Moore is going to change this
[21:04] Speaker 4: offense and all of a sudden try to make it so.
[21:06] Speaker 4: AJ Brown is getting more and more touches. This is
[21:08] Speaker 4: who they are. Jalen Hurst has throwing the fewest passes
[21:11] Speaker 4: in the NFL this year, So I would expect a
[21:14] Speaker 4: little scoring game wise. Guys are expecting a little scoring
[21:17] Speaker 4: game that plays to the advantage of the team that
[21:20] Speaker 4: is more than a field goal underdog.
[21:22] Speaker 1: So yeah, that's the sharp side.
[21:29] Speaker 2: I like the Broncos minus four, both teams off a bye.
[21:32] Speaker 2: I think Denver's got a really good defense now again,
[21:36] Speaker 2: Jamis Winston. I think you can beat it down the field.
[21:40] Speaker 2: That's not really what the Colts do. I think there
[21:44] Speaker 2: are ways to score on virtually every team in this league,
[21:46] Speaker 2: and I think Cleveland is one of those weird bad
[21:49] Speaker 2: teams that can be highly productive throwing the ball down
[21:52] Speaker 2: the field. But it should be noted in that game
[21:54] Speaker 2: denverly Denver eventually got picked sixes and turn the game
[21:57] Speaker 2: around with their defense. Is I think Anthony Richardson is
[22:04] Speaker 2: struggling with Shane steikn Look what Shane Steiken did with
[22:08] Speaker 2: Gardner Minshew Okay, Shane Steiken as a rookie with Justin
[22:13] Speaker 2: Herbert set records made Jalen Hurts an MVP level player
[22:18] Speaker 2: and he's pretty average from the pocket. That passing game
[22:21] Speaker 2: is limited, and I think it's limited because Anthony Richardson
[22:25] Speaker 2: may not be a pro starting quarterback. I get an
[22:29] Speaker 2: experience coach an excellent defense at home against a Dome team.
[22:36] Speaker 2: You know, I love the number four. It's probably square,
[22:39] Speaker 2: but I like Denver. Here, give me Sean Payton, Shanahan,
[22:43] Speaker 2: McVeigh read extra time, Sharper square.
[22:47] Speaker 4: Yeah, you know the answer, It's totally square. The wise
[22:51] Speaker 4: guys love the Colts here. It's been bet down. It
[22:54] Speaker 4: was at four and a half, it's at four. It'll
[22:56] Speaker 4: probably go down to three and a half. If you
[22:59] Speaker 4: want to bet the Colts, get it now, because it's
[23:02] Speaker 4: only going.
[23:03] Speaker 1: To go in their direction.
[23:06] Speaker 4: You're right about the Broncos coming off a bye, and
[23:10] Speaker 4: there is a lot of public sentiment on the Broncos
[23:13] Speaker 4: right now. The last time anyone saw them, they were
[23:17] Speaker 4: winning in dramatic fashion against the Browns, right they were
[23:20] Speaker 4: getting two pick sixes, they were covering with a miracle
[23:24] Speaker 4: and interception in the end zone. The Broncos are covering
[23:27] Speaker 4: by five points per game. Historically, teams that are covering
[23:31] Speaker 4: by five points per game over the course of the
[23:34] Speaker 4: season once we get past Week five only covered about
[23:38] Speaker 4: a forty four percent clip against the spread. So there's
[23:41] Speaker 4: one trend to help the cause of the cults. But also,
[23:45] Speaker 4: I don't know that wise guys agree with you about
[23:48] Speaker 4: Anthony Richardson. I think there's a little bit of Bryce
[23:50] Speaker 4: Young sort of in the way he's come back from
[23:55] Speaker 4: being benched. Since he's come back, eighth rated passer to
[24:00] Speaker 4: Pro Football Focus, fourth in big plays according to Pro
[24:05] Speaker 4: Football Focus, big play throws according to Pro Football Focus.
[24:09] Speaker 4: So it's not as bad as you would think. And
[24:11] Speaker 4: I do think there's something key here. Remember what happened
[24:15] Speaker 4: with the Browns against the Broncos on that in that
[24:18] Speaker 4: primetime game, they didn't have Riley Moss at cornerback. They
[24:22] Speaker 4: had William Vance. Will In Vance he might have still
[24:25] Speaker 4: he might still be giving up touchdowns to Jerry Judy
[24:27] Speaker 4: as we speak, like he was getting torched in that game.
[24:31] Speaker 4: Riley Moss is the only guy who didn't practice this
[24:33] Speaker 4: week for the Broncos. So if he's not playing, I
[24:36] Speaker 4: think that's a severely diminished defense and it impacts what
[24:39] Speaker 4: they can do all across the board. So there's trend reasons.
[24:44] Speaker 4: There's inflation reasons. The line is just too high the
[24:47] Speaker 4: wise guys think uh. And there's some matchup reasons.
[24:52] Speaker 2: Packers Seahawks is a really interesting game. Packers, like the Eagles,
[24:56] Speaker 2: have taken passing attempts away from Jordan Love in the
[24:59] Speaker 2: last this month. They're now a power run team that
[25:02] Speaker 2: makes far fewer mistakes. But Green Bay is like a
[25:05] Speaker 2: younger version of Philadelphia. They have just decided we're a
[25:07] Speaker 2: power run team. We do have weapons over the top,
[25:10] Speaker 2: but we're not going to let our quarterback throw more
[25:12] Speaker 2: than like twenty two to twenty four times, and we're
[25:14] Speaker 2: going to reduce the errors and when green Bay does
[25:17] Speaker 2: reduce the errors. They're really really good football team. I
[25:21] Speaker 2: like Seattle. I still don't think they're an elite team.
[25:25] Speaker 2: I think they're I think they're a playoff team, maybe
[25:29] Speaker 2: in a OK division. I think green Bay is absolutely
[25:33] Speaker 2: a playoff team in an excellent division. I like green
[25:36] Speaker 2: Bay minus two and a half Sharper.
[25:38] Speaker 4: Square one sharp at two and a half, if it
[25:42] Speaker 4: gets to three is a pass.
[25:44] Speaker 1: And if it gets to three.
[25:46] Speaker 4: You know, the wise guys will probably want to bet
[25:48] Speaker 4: on Seattle. But at two and a half, it's one
[25:52] Speaker 4: hundred percent the Packers for the reasons you just stated,
[25:55] Speaker 4: and the most important thing, it's like playing SEC in
[25:59] Speaker 4: the mad right. The Packers are losing really close games
[26:05] Speaker 4: and winning really close games in the best division in football.
[26:09] Speaker 4: They are battle tested every single week. The Seahawks, they're
[26:15] Speaker 4: winning a flukey game against the Cardinals a few weeks ago,
[26:18] Speaker 4: then they're getting the Cardinals in a class at Kyler
[26:21] Speaker 4: Murray game last week, And they won a miraculous game
[26:25] Speaker 4: against the Jets, which they should have lost, but they
[26:27] Speaker 4: got Leonard Williams running a pick six back for you know,
[26:30] Speaker 4: ninety something yards, So they're much better teams since the
[26:34] Speaker 4: buy and credit to their coaching staff and everything they've done,
[26:38] Speaker 4: and they've improved their defense significantly and their offense. By
[26:40] Speaker 4: the way, you know Zach Charbiney and what he did
[26:43] Speaker 4: last week was a great match for how they want
[26:45] Speaker 4: to build their running scheme. But the wise guys like
[26:48] Speaker 4: the Packers here just so it's a better team. And
[26:51] Speaker 4: by the way, Matt Lafleor is a wizard when it
[26:54] Speaker 4: comes to covering the spread. It's very possible when fifteen
[26:57] Speaker 4: years if Matt laflour is still coaching the Packers, he's
[26:59] Speaker 4: got Mike Tomlin like stats as a favorite and as
[27:03] Speaker 4: an underdog covering the spread.
[27:06] Speaker 2: Okay, game, I want you to tell me where to go?
[27:08] Speaker 2: Is Bears plus six and a half at the Viking.
[27:10] Speaker 2: So Minnesota is a really good team. But that game
[27:12] Speaker 2: with Atlanta was tied going into the fourth quarter. I've
[27:15] Speaker 2: seen them against teams like the Jags go zero for
[27:17] Speaker 2: five in the red zone. It's a good team with
[27:21] Speaker 2: a quarterback having a great year, but six and a
[27:24] Speaker 2: half is a lot. It's a divisional game, and the
[27:27] Speaker 2: Bears before that disaster in the Bay Area, which was
[27:30] Speaker 2: probably easier to predict than I would have admitted. I
[27:32] Speaker 2: do think they'll get back on track. I do think
[27:35] Speaker 2: they have a very good roster. This is again seems
[27:38] Speaker 2: out of whack six and a half. I mean, I
[27:40] Speaker 2: think it's I honestly see it as a go either
[27:42] Speaker 2: way game in the fourth quarter. Probably take the better
[27:45] Speaker 2: coaching staff, but sharper square Bears plus the points.
[27:49] Speaker 4: So the Bear it's it's the sharp ish play only
[27:53] Speaker 4: because and we talk about this all the time in
[27:55] Speaker 4: the show, you want to get the best of the number.
[27:58] Speaker 4: Twenty four hours ago, this game was seven and a half,
[28:00] Speaker 4: and then it went down to seven, and now it's
[28:03] Speaker 4: down to six and a half.
[28:04] Speaker 1: That alone tells you, Colin, that.
[28:06] Speaker 4: You're on the sharp side if you're betting the Bears.
[28:09] Speaker 4: The number has been moving in their direction. The line
[28:12] Speaker 4: is way too inflated, and you're getting a very bilo
[28:17] Speaker 4: on the Bears. Sell high on the Vikings spot. The
[28:21] Speaker 4: Bears were a train wreck. They couldn't have looked any worse.
[28:25] Speaker 4: They were out of it against the Niners in the
[28:28] Speaker 4: first half, right, they had four total yards and they
[28:32] Speaker 4: had five punts, and the Niners had three hundred and
[28:34] Speaker 4: nineteen yards, whereas the Vikings. You're right, that game was
[28:36] Speaker 4: tied and they really blew it open in the fourth
[28:38] Speaker 4: quarter because of a couple bad plays and turnovers on
[28:41] Speaker 4: the part of the Falcons, not because of anything magical
[28:44] Speaker 4: that the Vikings did to run away with it, even
[28:46] Speaker 4: though Sam Darnold had an incredible game, But they have
[28:50] Speaker 4: had their hiccups. Brian Flor's defense has not been as
[28:52] Speaker 4: good in the second half of the year as it
[28:54] Speaker 4: was in the first half of the year. So yes,
[28:57] Speaker 4: you're on the sharp side, but it's a caution. Know
[29:00] Speaker 4: that if you're playing this number, you've given away some value.
[29:04] Speaker 2: So I think the Titans getting four and a half
[29:08] Speaker 2: with the Bengals. Of my prediction is that's the ugly game.
[29:11] Speaker 2: I ask you every week for a game that I've missed.
[29:14] Speaker 2: My guess is the Titans a pretty good defensive team
[29:17] Speaker 2: at home, playing with pride against the Cincinnati team. You
[29:20] Speaker 2: can just move the ball. I mean, if not for
[29:23] Speaker 2: a gaff by the Cowboys special teams, We're going to
[29:27] Speaker 2: overtime against a very mediocre Dallas team with Cooper Rush
[29:32] Speaker 2: is Tennessee plus four and a half. The side here
[29:35] Speaker 2: is that the game I'm missing, well, certainly it's a
[29:38] Speaker 2: side like it was at five and it's come down.
[29:40] Speaker 4: So that tells you the wise guys are betting on
[29:42] Speaker 4: the Titans, because certainly the public isn't going to be
[29:45] Speaker 4: betting on the Titans. It's a really tricky game. I
[29:48] Speaker 4: haven't touched this game one hundred percent. The value is
[29:52] Speaker 4: on the Titans. It's not the game I was going
[29:54] Speaker 4: to talk to you about. But the challenge here, You've
[29:58] Speaker 4: basically got a one dimensional Bengals team, right. All they
[30:01] Speaker 4: can really do is throw the ball to Higgins and
[30:05] Speaker 4: Chase Joe Burrow. Higgins, Joe Burrow's Chase. That's their game plan.
[30:10] Speaker 4: They can't really run the ball, they don't have a
[30:12] Speaker 4: screen game, they don't really have play action to speak of.
[30:15] Speaker 4: All of those things that could slow down a better
[30:18] Speaker 4: than average defense in the Titans, and they have no
[30:21] Speaker 4: defense to speak of. The problem is Will Levis. He's
[30:26] Speaker 4: not any better than Cooper Rush. Right, He's got a
[30:28] Speaker 4: better arm. Maybe he can fling it downfield further, but
[30:31] Speaker 4: he couldn't even beat up on the Jaguars at home
[30:33] Speaker 4: last week despite so many opportunities. So you're kind of
[30:37] Speaker 4: banking on the fact you're hoping that when there's an opening,
[30:40] Speaker 4: Will Levis can convert. You're going to take the Titans,
[30:44] Speaker 4: because if you're a better that's what you do.
[30:46] Speaker 1: You bet.
[30:47] Speaker 4: You bet the number, but know that you're you're playing
[30:50] Speaker 4: with fire here because you're not just betting the number
[30:52] Speaker 4: and you're betting Will Lews.
[30:54] Speaker 2: All right, tell me the game I missed.
[30:56] Speaker 4: You didn't talk about Cleveland and Kansas City. Bridge dropped
[31:01] Speaker 4: from six and a half to four and a half.
[31:04] Speaker 2: So the Browns are the side.
[31:06] Speaker 4: The Browns have been the side. The Browns are the
[31:08] Speaker 4: side until it gets to about three and a half.
[31:11] Speaker 1: And this one.
[31:12] Speaker 4: You know, in the betting community, there's two things that
[31:17] Speaker 4: are sort of scary right now. It's the frequency and
[31:21] Speaker 4: regularity with which you can count on fading Patrick Mahomes
[31:26] Speaker 4: when he's a favorite of more than three, and the
[31:29] Speaker 4: frequency and regularity with which you can count on betting
[31:32] Speaker 4: Mike Tomlin as an underdog. I said, percentage wise, if
[31:37] Speaker 4: something is happening six out of ten times, which is
[31:40] Speaker 4: basically what is happening with both of those categories, Tomlin
[31:44] Speaker 4: is a dog, Mahomes is a favorite of more than three,
[31:47] Speaker 4: it manages that four times those bets are going to
[31:50] Speaker 4: lose this year that they haven't been losing at all,
[31:53] Speaker 4: And so wise guys know in this spot, the spot
[31:58] Speaker 4: is to play Cleveland. But it's a little bit scarier
[32:01] Speaker 4: because you keep waiting for the other shoot to drop.
[32:03] Speaker 4: A lot of guys, including myself, about what happened last
[32:06] Speaker 4: week against the Chargers.
[32:07] Speaker 1: No JK.
[32:08] Speaker 4: Dobbins, no Lad McConkey, and it looked like it was
[32:10] Speaker 4: going to and then again the Chiefs kind of fell
[32:13] Speaker 4: apart because they have no protection in the offensive line.
[32:16] Speaker 4: So the Browns pressure the ball, pressure the quarterback more
[32:21] Speaker 4: than the Chargers and are better at it. And meanwhile
[32:25] Speaker 4: the Chiefs now they're sending guys off the street to
[32:27] Speaker 4: play in the defensive backfield. And if you want to
[32:31] Speaker 4: talk about a quarterback who could have a good time
[32:34] Speaker 4: slinging it against a wonky defensive backfield, let's talk about jams. Now,
[32:39] Speaker 4: are you potentially going to suffer a pick six that
[32:42] Speaker 4: can ruin it for you? Sure, but the wise guys
[32:44] Speaker 4: are willing to literally make that bet. So they're playing Cleveland.
[32:57] Speaker 2: You know, I know the games a couple of weeks away,
[32:59] Speaker 2: but I I think it's really interesting the Ohio State
[33:05] Speaker 2: hosting Tennessee first round playoff game to me is one
[33:09] Speaker 2: of the more fascinating games ever. So you take a
[33:12] Speaker 2: warm weather team from Knoxville and everybody's having to wait
[33:16] Speaker 2: for the playoff to start. That means the weather's getting uglier.
[33:19] Speaker 2: My wife was in Chicago to the day and she's like,
[33:20] Speaker 2: it is cold. So you take a warm weather SEC
[33:24] Speaker 2: team up to a superior roster. I believe in Ohio State.
[33:29] Speaker 2: You get an Ohio State team that's got a little
[33:32] Speaker 2: insecurity and lack of identity off a historically bad loss,
[33:38] Speaker 2: so they'll play with incredible intensity and focus. You know,
[33:41] Speaker 2: Ohio State really is coming with their hair on fire. Yeah,
[33:46] Speaker 2: and now Ohio State's O line is the weak unit
[33:50] Speaker 2: on their roster, and the D line for the volunteers
[33:53] Speaker 2: is the strength of their roster. The weather could play
[33:58] Speaker 2: aff factor. Ohio State's greatest asset is their vertical nature.
[34:02] Speaker 2: On the perimeter. It could be thirty eight degrees and windy.
[34:05] Speaker 2: I looked at the forecast. Now it's fourteen days out
[34:08] Speaker 2: or twelve days or ten days. I looked at it
[34:10] Speaker 2: about four days ago and I'm like, oh, it's going
[34:11] Speaker 2: to be forty one degrees and wet. How does the
[34:14] Speaker 2: betting community or have they looked at that game?
[34:18] Speaker 4: Well, right now the number is seven and a half.
[34:22] Speaker 4: People have been talking about it. I think there's a
[34:25] Speaker 4: lot of circumstances still to go. I'm looking in the
[34:30] Speaker 4: app right now, not a ton of action on the
[34:33] Speaker 4: game at this point, and like this is so early
[34:36] Speaker 4: you can't really take anything of it. Majority of money
[34:40] Speaker 4: and tickets are on Tennessee. I also think a week
[34:45] Speaker 4: spot for the for Ohio State is their quarterback, Like
[34:49] Speaker 4: he's not sort of an elite passer who can take
[34:51] Speaker 4: advantage of the talent they have, the elite talent, you know,
[34:56] Speaker 4: top round, first round draft pick talent they have at
[34:59] Speaker 4: Ohio State. You and I have talked about Ohio State
[35:03] Speaker 4: a lot and Ryan Day. The AD came out today
[35:07] Speaker 4: and said he supports Ryan Day.
[35:09] Speaker 1: He wants Ryan Day to be back as the head coach.
[35:13] Speaker 4: Like I think there's so much tension inside that community
[35:19] Speaker 4: right now about not just beating Tennessee, but the having
[35:23] Speaker 4: to advance that his teams have shown up and played
[35:27] Speaker 4: type in big games.
[35:29] Speaker 1: They play type.
[35:31] Speaker 4: So if you're seeing the early numbers come in on Tennessee,
[35:34] Speaker 4: I think it's partly a fade of Ryan Day's ability
[35:37] Speaker 4: to have his team play loose and take full advantage
[35:40] Speaker 4: of the talent that they have on their roster.
[35:44] Speaker 2: Let's talk about Belichick. I saw today an incredibly weak schedule.
[35:47] Speaker 2: Next year they have Clemson at home and then Syracuse
[35:50] Speaker 2: on the road, but it screams ten wins. They don't
[35:53] Speaker 2: have a quarterback, the old line's a bit of a mess.
[35:56] Speaker 2: He's bringing in Mike Lombardi to be like his GM.
[36:00] Speaker 2: They're going to use a pro model. I don't think
[36:02] Speaker 2: high school recruiting will be I don't even think they're
[36:05] Speaker 2: going to fake it. I think it's going to be
[36:07] Speaker 2: an eighty twenty transfer portal team. I don't even think
[36:10] Speaker 2: they're going to fake it because I don't really think
[36:13] Speaker 2: this is a long term proposition. In fact, I wouldn't
[36:15] Speaker 2: be shocked if after a year Belichick moves back to
[36:18] Speaker 2: the Pro League and his son takes over. I really
[36:22] Speaker 2: don't see this as a long term proposition. I think
[36:25] Speaker 2: the administration, the transfer portal, the fluid nil the needy donors,
[36:32] Speaker 2: clueless administrators, angry lacrosse coach who's not getting attention. I
[36:36] Speaker 2: could see Belichick after a year saying, guys, I got
[36:39] Speaker 2: nine wins, ten wins, I'm back to the NFL over
[36:43] Speaker 2: under six and a half I thought was like and
[36:46] Speaker 2: generally I bet unders on future bets like this year,
[36:50] Speaker 2: I took Denver in the over. Last year I took
[36:53] Speaker 2: Rams in the over. I think there's about one gem.
[36:56] Speaker 2: Three years ago I took Minnesota. They became thirteen and three.
[37:00] Speaker 2: Got those right. I also like Washington, but generally there's
[37:02] Speaker 2: about one great over a year, and then I just
[37:05] Speaker 2: bet unders. Is the betting community reacting to all six
[37:09] Speaker 2: and a half seems in a really really weak conference,
[37:14] Speaker 2: seems weirdly low.
[37:17] Speaker 4: Well, look, we're hours into this. There's no real reaction
[37:22] Speaker 4: if we're talking about North Carolina season wind totals at
[37:26] Speaker 4: six and a half because of Bill Belichick. I agree
[37:31] Speaker 4: with your theory. I agree with your premise. The one
[37:34] Speaker 4: thing I would say is I think it's fascinating that
[37:37] Speaker 4: he's doing this and the way he's talking about it
[37:41] Speaker 4: as a treating it like a professional program and bringing
[37:46] Speaker 4: GMS in. He's basically getting the old band back together
[37:49] Speaker 4: right from the Patriot circa, you know, two thousand and five.
[37:54] Speaker 4: I think it's it's fundamentally brilliant because he's going to
[38:00] Speaker 4: run it the way he said the other day on McAfee,
[38:02] Speaker 4: like he's going to run it like it's a professional organization,
[38:06] Speaker 4: which is what's driving a lot of the college coaches out.
[38:09] Speaker 4: So this is a huge advantage for him. He's managing
[38:13] Speaker 4: a salary cap. He's trying to bring in the best
[38:16] Speaker 4: possible talent that are free agents within the college football community. Like,
[38:21] Speaker 4: this is what the guy has been doing for years,
[38:23] Speaker 4: and he will be able to do it in a
[38:25] Speaker 4: way that, at least for a year or two, will
[38:28] Speaker 4: have the shine of Bill Belichick, greatest coach ever, and
[38:31] Speaker 4: there will be so many people who are high profile
[38:34] Speaker 4: players who are going to be interested in seeing what
[38:36] Speaker 4: that experience is like. Can he bradify anybody? I think
[38:41] Speaker 4: it's great. So as a fun flyer, for sure, I
[38:44] Speaker 4: would take over six and a half.
[38:47] Speaker 1: You know.
[38:47] Speaker 2: It's what's really interesting about this transfer portal. Deon Sanders,
[38:53] Speaker 2: Brian Kelly, and Lincoln Riley have found this out. You
[38:56] Speaker 2: could improve the talent near roster, but it's very hard
[39:00] Speaker 2: to improve chemistry when you're basically hiring one year to
[39:05] Speaker 2: the pro players. Oregon what's really interesting. Oregon got away
[39:10] Speaker 2: with it, but almost lost to Idaho and Boise State
[39:13] Speaker 2: early now by, and this is a program with excellent
[39:18] Speaker 2: high school recruiting and a great staff. But if you
[39:21] Speaker 2: go back to the first two games for Oregon, they
[39:23] Speaker 2: were awful because they were moving around offensive line pieces.
[39:27] Speaker 2: They just on sheer talent got away with it. LSU
[39:31] Speaker 2: and USC did not. Colorado did not eventually, So the
[39:35] Speaker 2: transfer portal, even for the teams that win with it,
[39:39] Speaker 2: I mean Ohio State, Will Howard's not as good as
[39:42] Speaker 2: they thought. He was passing against big twelve teams. What
[39:46] Speaker 2: do you know, Big ten defenses are better, Big ten
[39:50] Speaker 2: stadiums are louder, Big ten defensive coaching staffs are better.
[39:54] Speaker 2: Will Howard looks really ordinary. He didn't at Kansas State.
[39:58] Speaker 2: I watched them and thought it was a great pickup.
[40:00] Speaker 2: So it's interesting the transfer portal. Belichick, though, has dealt
[40:05] Speaker 2: with pro athletes, and that's essentially like Ole Miss. They
[40:08] Speaker 2: just went and bought a pro team and Lane Kiffin,
[40:10] Speaker 2: by the way, that's why it's worked because he's got
[40:12] Speaker 2: pro experience. So my guess is the personal and coaching
[40:15] Speaker 2: will work. I think the personality fit. You know, he's
[40:20] Speaker 2: kind of a terse Northeast, confrontational guy. And you know
[40:25] Speaker 2: these colleges, I forget the word woke. You know, they're
[40:29] Speaker 2: a little PC and people they're very tribal. People have
[40:33] Speaker 2: their territory and you go, you walk in. It's not
[40:36] Speaker 2: just the professors who are tenured. You have decade old administrators.
[40:41] Speaker 2: He does not care about that. He's not going to
[40:44] Speaker 2: any volleyball galas. He doesn't care. So I can see
[40:47] Speaker 2: that really wearing him and UNC out in eighteen months.
[40:53] Speaker 4: So Seth Wickersham, who you've had on your show A ladder.
[40:56] Speaker 4: He's great, brilliant right our ESPN. He's a great story
[40:58] Speaker 4: on ESPN dot com today with a little bit of
[41:00] Speaker 4: insight and insight info on the process and what the
[41:04] Speaker 4: NFL was thinking about Belichick, and you know, he did
[41:06] Speaker 4: an amazing story. When Belichick didn't get any jobs about
[41:10] Speaker 4: it seemed like gms and owners were kind of dancing on.
[41:14] Speaker 1: Belichick's grave a little bit.
[41:17] Speaker 4: And the fact that he didn't get any offers and
[41:19] Speaker 4: the Falcon saying he wasn't even in their top three
[41:22] Speaker 4: of candidates at the end of the day after the
[41:24] Speaker 4: interview process. So to me, this feels like and he
[41:30] Speaker 4: pointed out Belichick has a reverence for teaching. And you
[41:35] Speaker 4: know the book that Haberstam wrote, David Harberstam wrote about
[41:39] Speaker 4: Belichick and Seth wrote all about this. I'm just cribbing
[41:41] Speaker 4: from his story was called The Education of the Coach.
[41:45] Speaker 4: His dad was essentially his professor, right, And so I
[41:49] Speaker 4: do think there was something for Belichick about going to
[41:53] Speaker 4: college and being able to shape people from the beginning. Remember,
[41:58] Speaker 4: he was drafting guys that he could turn into Super
[42:03] Speaker 4: Bowl champions, Chuck Knowle, the Chuck no Way was draft
[42:08] Speaker 4: guys who you can mold, who can turn into the
[42:11] Speaker 4: players you want them to be, who don't have bad habits.
[42:14] Speaker 4: I wrote a whole book about this, about the Steelers
[42:16] Speaker 4: and the Cowboys rivalry, and Chuck Noll was brilliant at this.
[42:20] Speaker 4: So Belichick going to college, even if he's getting guys
[42:23] Speaker 4: from a transfer portal, if you're going to play for Belichick,
[42:27] Speaker 4: you want a certain style of coaching and you want
[42:29] Speaker 4: to know what it takes to get the NFL. You
[42:31] Speaker 4: are going to be listening to what bell Belichick and
[42:33] Speaker 4: whoever he puts on staff with him will be saying
[42:37] Speaker 4: you will be moldable, you will be coachable. And I
[42:40] Speaker 4: think if you're North Carolina, you know what you're getting
[42:43] Speaker 4: and you're staying out of the way. And if it's
[42:44] Speaker 4: a year, if it's two years, whatever it is, you're
[42:47] Speaker 4: not going to get gruff from ten yured professors. You're
[42:50] Speaker 4: not going to get gruff from people who don't care
[42:52] Speaker 4: about football and are annoyed at the attention he's getting.
[42:56] Speaker 4: You know what you're getting with Bill Belichick, and you're
[42:58] Speaker 4: going to suck it up and accept it, and he's
[43:00] Speaker 4: going to bring you victories and shine to your football
[43:02] Speaker 4: program until he decides to go back the NFL and
[43:05] Speaker 4: get down Shower's record.
[43:08] Speaker 2: By the way, before we go, there's been a lot
[43:10] Speaker 2: of UAP and UFO sidings in New Jersey, so I
[43:16] Speaker 2: always have I don't believe in UFOs. What I do
[43:20] Speaker 2: believe is that our government lies to us often to
[43:24] Speaker 2: protect us from adversaries or to hide suppress information, to
[43:30] Speaker 2: hide technology. They did this with a stealth for years,
[43:33] Speaker 2: So I basically think these are super drones that we're
[43:37] Speaker 2: experimenting with, our government is experimenting with, and they put
[43:40] Speaker 2: him in a high a location with a lot of
[43:44] Speaker 2: media by the water and to see the reaction from
[43:48] Speaker 2: people and see how they look, how people react. They're
[43:52] Speaker 2: super drones, drones that our government's been working on, and
[43:55] Speaker 2: they probably one hundred and fifty miles offshore, probably release them,
[44:02] Speaker 2: you know, one of our you know, giant jets goes
[44:04] Speaker 2: out there, government jets and releases ten into the sky
[44:08] Speaker 2: and they you know, they play around for a while
[44:10] Speaker 2: and then they come back go back offshore. That's my
[44:14] Speaker 2: guess on what it is. If you had to guess,
[44:17] Speaker 2: is the world ending or is it some international or
[44:20] Speaker 2: government program.
[44:23] Speaker 4: There's a lot to unpack there and believe it or not.
[44:26] Speaker 4: I have so many theories. I think about this so much.
[44:31] Speaker 4: Number one, I am essentially a p doomer. I do
[44:34] Speaker 4: believe that there is a point in the not too
[44:39] Speaker 4: distant future, one hundred years, two hundred years, I don't know,
[44:42] Speaker 4: in which the world will come to an end because
[44:45] Speaker 4: of some catastrophic whether it's technological, environmental moment right number one.
[44:52] Speaker 4: Number two, I also agree the government oftentimes will be
[44:58] Speaker 4: screwing around with us in some kind of program. I'm
[45:01] Speaker 4: not like a you know, deep government, dark government conspiracy
[45:08] Speaker 4: theorist I don't believe there are people who are actively
[45:11] Speaker 4: trying to manipulate outcomes and all those kinds of things.
[45:16] Speaker 4: I am I one hundred percent believe there is alien life,
[45:23] Speaker 4: and there is intelligent life that is working at a
[45:27] Speaker 4: higher capacity, with more intellectual capacity than humans. And for
[45:33] Speaker 4: all we know, they could already be here. It could
[45:35] Speaker 4: be sharks. Right, How arrogant do you have to be
[45:40] Speaker 4: to not think that there could be somebody higher on
[45:43] Speaker 4: the intellectual food chain than us. We have explored so
[45:49] Speaker 4: little of the galaxies to understand what intelligent life is.
[45:58] Speaker 4: And like I, Carl Sagan is one of the most
[46:01] Speaker 4: brilliant people who ever lived. He believed that there would
[46:06] Speaker 4: be some form of intelligent life and that there is
[46:08] Speaker 4: some form of intelligent life outside of known humanity. If
[46:13] Speaker 4: he believes that, I believe in.
[46:16] Speaker 2: But how do we know they're smarter? I think there's
[46:18] Speaker 2: something out there, But how do we know they don't
[46:20] Speaker 2: have the IQ equivalency of like the Jersey Shore cast.
[46:25] Speaker 4: Well, number one, don't don't discount those Jersey Shore folks
[46:28] Speaker 4: because they have made a killing like they are killing
[46:31] Speaker 4: figured out how to be bankable number one. Number two,
[46:35] Speaker 4: we don't know that, But then you have to ask
[46:37] Speaker 4: the other question, how do we know they're not smarter?
[46:40] Speaker 1: And I think it's a.
[46:41] Speaker 2: Better story that they're super geniuses it I think it's
[46:45] Speaker 2: I think it's a better story.
[46:47] Speaker 1: Well, it also could be true, like we want to
[46:50] Speaker 1: believe like that. You're right.
[46:52] Speaker 4: The narrative, the science fiction of it all, is that
[46:57] Speaker 4: they're out there, they're smarter, They're going to come to Earth.
[47:01] Speaker 4: They will attack us, they will destroy us, they will
[47:03] Speaker 4: use us as puppets. You know, all the independence to
[47:06] Speaker 4: the philosophies, all that kind of stuff. Here's what I'm
[47:10] Speaker 4: saying to you. Are they here already? That's the question.
[47:17] Speaker 4: Why are we so arrogant is to believe that they're
[47:19] Speaker 4: not already here? How do we know they're not sharks?
[47:24] Speaker 2: I don't think it's arrogant. I think if we saw them,
[47:28] Speaker 2: or we had things that led us to believe they
[47:31] Speaker 2: were here, that we would believe it. But I think
[47:35] Speaker 2: there are so many there's so many grifters on the
[47:39] Speaker 2: Internet that are bored out of their mind, and there's
[47:42] Speaker 2: been so many obviously inauthentic or fake UFO videos that
[47:47] Speaker 2: most people are appropriately cynical. I am I think I'm
[47:55] Speaker 2: appropriately cynical. There are more videos now than ever. I
[48:00] Speaker 2: have seen some in the last two or three weeks.
[48:04] Speaker 2: There was the Pentagon video the TikTok based tic Tac
[48:07] Speaker 2: basically over the Pacific, which is, you know, it's hard
[48:10] Speaker 2: to explain. And those were really genuinely perplexed fighter pilots,
[48:16] Speaker 2: you know, and they're up in the sky, so that
[48:18] Speaker 2: stuff's you know, that's obviously something could be China. And
[48:21] Speaker 2: I've this stuff in New Jersey. I mean, you can
[48:24] Speaker 2: tell when somebody's faking it, and you can tell when
[48:26] Speaker 2: it's a husband and a wife having a margarita and
[48:28] Speaker 2: they're like, what the f is that and they're just laughing.
[48:32] Speaker 2: You know, you can tell when it's real and when
[48:35] Speaker 2: it's posers. But I tend to go back to I
[48:38] Speaker 2: think it's a government plane one hundred and fifty miles
[48:41] Speaker 2: off shore, releasing super drones and just looking for the reaction.
[48:45] Speaker 2: How visible, How does our government track them? I think
[48:48] Speaker 2: I think our government does a lot of testing, Our
[48:50] Speaker 2: military does testing, The Pentagon does testing, and they just
[48:52] Speaker 2: don't tell us.
[48:53] Speaker 4: Yeah, but I don't I agree it could be super
[48:56] Speaker 4: drones and things like that. I don't think it's because
[48:58] Speaker 4: they're trying to test for a reaction. And I think
[49:00] Speaker 4: they're probably trying to test for whatever militaristic use there
[49:03] Speaker 4: is for something like this and how they can be deployed.
[49:08] Speaker 4: That is separate from there is some kind of alien
[49:12] Speaker 4: life probably living among us right now.
[49:15] Speaker 1: I just I believe it.
[49:18] Speaker 4: And if it's not here yet, it's out there somewhere,
[49:21] Speaker 4: and it could be more intelligent than us might not be.
[49:23] Speaker 4: I don't mind listening to your theory and subscribe to
[49:26] Speaker 4: that either. But I'm telling you, we're not alone, Colin.
[49:30] Speaker 4: We're just that, we're just not alone. And I'm okay
[49:34] Speaker 4: with it. I'm totally okay with it. I'm like, there's
[49:37] Speaker 4: plenty of room. Like I don't subscribe to the theory
[49:41] Speaker 4: that they have to be after us and they want
[49:43] Speaker 4: to be controlling us. We can all peacefully coexist. I
[49:47] Speaker 4: love love, Why can't we all just get along?
[49:50] Speaker 2: Listen? I was there's a man that has died three
[49:53] Speaker 2: separate times and come back to life. He's all over
[49:56] Speaker 2: the internet, you know, and his he goes again against
[50:00] Speaker 2: the grain and says, there is no hell. I've experienced
[50:03] Speaker 2: it three times. What you do is go through the
[50:08] Speaker 2: moments of your life and your bad interactions and when
[50:11] Speaker 2: you were rude and when you were mean, and that
[50:13] Speaker 2: is the hell that you have to revisit, those situations
[50:17] Speaker 2: when you were unkind and unwelcoming. There is no fiery pit.
[50:22] Speaker 2: It's a series of confrontations looking back at yourself and
[50:28] Speaker 2: the moments you misstepped. And that is punishment and it's painful.
[50:33] Speaker 2: And I hear that, and I think now that seems
[50:35] Speaker 2: much more realistic to somebody who's died, been unconscious three
[50:38] Speaker 2: different times and come back to life. So one of
[50:42] Speaker 2: the things I've always thought about, if there is life
[50:45] Speaker 2: beyond us, I think they would enter. I think they
[50:49] Speaker 2: would enter and house themselves in the water, because it's
[50:53] Speaker 2: the one part of this planet. First of all, it's
[50:56] Speaker 2: the largest part, it's the most unexplored part. There's not
[51:00] Speaker 2: as many telescopes facing down is up, and it is
[51:05] Speaker 2: basically uninhabited. It's easier to hide and you can travel
[51:11] Speaker 2: very well. You know, submarines everywhere. So I always thought
[51:14] Speaker 2: if there was another society, that's where you'd hide. And
[51:18] Speaker 2: that's so when I see videos, they're often near the water.
[51:22] Speaker 2: You don't see you see them so often on coastlines,
[51:25] Speaker 2: and Virginia's in New Jerseys, in California's in Mexico. And
[51:30] Speaker 2: it's like, what's the theme. You don't see them in Ottawa,
[51:33] Speaker 2: you see them near water. You don't see them in
[51:37] Speaker 2: ye I mean you really don't. You don't see them
[51:38] Speaker 2: in Kansas very much. So that leads me to believe
[51:41] Speaker 2: there is some water connection.
[51:44] Speaker 1: I got two things to say to you.
[51:45] Speaker 4: Number One, what that guy on the internet is talking
[51:48] Speaker 4: about how Die three times one hundred percent in alien
[51:52] Speaker 4: Number two, i'm telling you underwater I agree it's the sharks.
[51:58] Speaker 4: I'm just saying the sharks they could just be alien
[52:02] Speaker 4: life forms.
[52:04] Speaker 2: I'm gonna have to sleep on that one, Okay.
[52:07] Speaker 1: Get back to me.
[52:08] Speaker 2: Sharper Sharper square chatted Melmane could see anybody?
[52:11] Speaker 1: All right, brother, I'll talk to you later.
[52:16] Speaker 3: The volume

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