# What Went Wrong With California?

An episode of [Patrick Boyle On Finance](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1547740313), 20 Oct 2024, 27 min.

Audio: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/APO4014755076.mp3

Since the gold rush, California has been the go-to state for start-up companies. In recent years the Golden State has been losing the competition with neighboring states. More than 500 businesses have left California since 2005. Among these businesses were Fortune 500 companies and the economic impact from these departing companies is likely to be severe. California’s tax laws and prohibitive regulations are the leading causes of the massive corporate exodus. The business-friendly conditions, opportunities to save costs, and home-ownership options for employees in other states are a few reasons companies have decided to leave California. These factors led to the first three-year decline in population in Californias history. In today's video we ask, what went wrong with California? Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle Business Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org Patrick Boyle On Finance YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@PBoyle

## Transcript

[0:00] California has the largest economy in the United States,
[0:04] with a gross state product of over $4 trillion.
[0:07] If it was its own country, it would have the world's 5th
[0:11] largest economy, behind Japan and ahead of India.
[0:15] California is home to some of the world's most valuable
[0:17] technology companies. It's the center of the global
[0:21] entertainment industry and its farms are amongst the most
[0:24] productive in the world, growing over half of America's
[0:28] vegetables, fruits and nuts. California's workers are hugely
[0:32] productive too. The state has AGDP per capita of
[0:36] $104,000, which would rank it as number six in the world if it
[0:41] was a country. Tax havens, which California
[0:44] definitely is not, often have distorted GDP as multinational
[0:49] companies frequently transfer intellectual property assets to
[0:53] tax havens like Ireland, which get counted as that country's
[0:57] GDP. Income on foreign owned capital
[1:01] held in tax havens also gets counted as GDP because the
[1:05] income originates in that country, even if the financial
[1:09] firm has nothing but APO box to show for it.
[1:12] If we exclude tax havens from the list to remove these
[1:16] distortions, California really stands out as the most
[1:20] productive place in the world. Unfortunately, some of the shine
[1:25] has started to come off the Golden State in recent years as
[1:28] companies and workers have been leaving.
[1:31] Elon Musk famously announced this summer that he would move
[1:35] the headquarters of his companies from California to
[1:38] Texas. He has long complained about
[1:40] over regulation and excessive taxation in California, but said
[1:45] that the final straw was a new law relating to parental rights.
[1:50] Critics argued that Musk was attacking the state after years
[1:53] of benefiting from its abundant government support, which was of
[1:57] course paid for by the high taxes.
[2:00] The president of the California Labour Federation told the LA
[2:04] Times that California, through tax credits, electric vehicle
[2:07] subsidies, and training grants, made Elon successful.
[2:12] It's not just Elon Musk, however.
[2:14] Companies like Chevron, Hewlett Packard, Palantir, and Charles
[2:18] Schwab have all left the state in recent years.
[2:22] According to the Financial Times, over 200 companies have
[2:25] left California since 2019, with very few companies moving there
[2:30] to replace them. This contrasts with states like
[2:34] Texas and Florida where the exact opposite is happening.
[2:38] This isn't all that new either. Research from the Hoover
[2:41] Institution shows that this trend began well before the
[2:45] pandemic and has been slowly picking up pace.
[2:48] They point out that corporate relocation planning takes years,
[2:52] giving the example of the NHRA who left California in 20/21
[2:58] after a 12 year study. According to Joseph Politano at
[3:02] the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the biggest beneficiaries of the
[3:06] post pandemic move have been states like Texas and Florida,
[3:10] whose economic growth has outstripped most emerging
[3:13] markets in recent years with huge jobs growth too.
[3:18] Now, it's worth noting that despite all of this negativity,
[3:22] California has been growing faster than the United States
[3:25] overall. And the United States has
[3:28] experienced great economic growth in recent years.
[3:31] But as Texas and Florida have grown, so have jobs.
[3:35] But in California, there's been economic growth paired with very
[3:39] weak jobs growth, which is a problem. the US unemployment
[3:43] rate sits at 4.1%, which is not far off.
[3:47] It's low, but in California, California, the unemployment
[3:50] rate has risen to 5.3%, the highest of any US state.
[3:55] The recent tech and AI boom has been good for California, but
[3:59] not for Californians. According to the LA Times,
[4:03] California's homelessness problem, which has always been
[4:06] an issue, has grown by 40% over the last five years.
[4:10] And half of all homeless people in the United States live in
[4:14] California. So how is California different
[4:18] from the rest of the United States?
[4:20] How did they go from $100 billion budget surplus two years
[4:24] ago to a budget crisis with a $73 billion deficit today?
[4:29] And what explains the Californian exodus and lack of
[4:33] new arrival? Early settlers mistakenly
[4:36] believed that California was an island, entirely separated from
[4:40] the United States by the Gulf of California.
[4:43] In many ways it developed like an island too, with its major
[4:47] population centres all on the coast as it was cut off from the
[4:51] rest of the United States by huge mountain ranges and hard to
[4:55] cross deserts. Before rail and good roads were
[4:58] laid, the easiest route from the East Coast to California was by
[5:03] sea. The states modern economic
[5:06] history began with the Gold Rush in 1848 which attracted over
[5:10] 300,000 settlers, boosting the population and infrastructure
[5:15] which led to statehood 2 years later in 1850.
[5:20] The oil industry played a significant role in the state's
[5:23] early economic development too. After oil was discovered in Los
[5:27] Angeles in 1895, California quickly became the biggest oil
[5:33] producing state up until 1936, after which reserves became
[5:38] depleted. Today, oil and natural gas are
[5:41] mostly imported into California from abroad, which partially
[5:45] explains the state's high energy costs.
[5:49] Agriculture has been a huge industry in the state too, with
[5:53] Californian farmers focusing on the production of the highest
[5:56] margin produce. The film industry is possibly
[5:59] what California has been most famous for around the world, and
[6:03] along with the tech sector, it contributes significantly to
[6:07] California's global cultural influence, which has been huge.
[6:11] The development of Silicon Valley in the late 1970s
[6:15] transformed California into the global leader in technology and
[6:19] innovation, which it remains to this day.
[6:23] Given the size of the state economy, it's no surprise that
[6:26] there's also a vibrant financial sector too.
[6:30] Californias public universities are ranked amongst the best in
[6:34] the world for academic excellence, research and
[6:37] innovation. They attract top tier faculty
[6:40] and focus on research and development, which has driven
[6:44] advancements in technology, medicine and the arts.
[6:48] The top Californian universities have policies in place that
[6:52] encourage students to take ownership of their research.
[6:56] Students are often given the opportunity to be named on
[6:59] patents that they developed and are supported by the
[7:02] universities in commercializing their work.
[7:05] The UC system has resources like technology transfer offices and
[7:10] entrepreneurship programs to help students navigate
[7:14] intellectual property rights and develop their research into
[7:18] marketable products or services. At other universities, the
[7:22] ownership of research and IP might be more strictly
[7:26] controlled by the institution itself.
[7:28] Many universities retain ownership of all IP created by
[7:33] students, faculty, and staff. The UC systems policies have
[7:38] fostered a sense of ownership, empowerment and entrepreneurship
[7:42] among students and can be given credit for a lot of the
[7:45] innovation and business success that come out of the state.
[7:49] California is famously America's most left-leaning state, earning
[7:54] it the nickname the People's Republic of California and
[7:58] making it the whipping boy of conservatives for whom
[8:01] California has long been shorthand for everything wrong
[8:04] in the country. The state is home to many of
[8:07] America's most progressive policies.
[8:10] It has the heaviest tax load in the country.
[8:13] Criminal justice policies like decarceration, deprosecution and
[8:18] policing, these are all new words to me, have led to a crime
[8:22] problem that has damaged the state's image along with
[8:25] residents feeling of safety. Energy prices, which are high to
[8:30] begin with in California, are likely to only rise higher as
[8:34] the state mandated transition to A0 carbon grid takes
[8:38] conventional power offline and replaces it with more expensive
[8:42] green sources. According to research from
[8:45] George Mason University, California is the most regulated
[8:49] state in the United States with more than 419,000 restrictions
[8:54] in place, the majority of which cover industry, commerce and
[8:58] development. This overall combination of high
[9:02] taxes, high regulation, high crime, and an extreme
[9:05] homelessness problem makes California an easy target for
[9:09] right wing politicians. And as the situation gets worse,
[9:13] outsiders rush to declare it a failed state or announced that
[9:17] the California dream is turning into a nightmare.
[9:20] I should probably use one of those as a video title or
[9:23] something about checking out of the Hotel California.
[9:27] You guys will click on that hopefully.
[9:30] The cost of housing and energy are so high in California when
[9:34] compared to the rest of the United States that even high
[9:38] incomes look a lot less impressive once adjusted for
[9:41] taxes and the overall higher cost of living.
[9:44] The price to income ratio for buying homes is 25 times median
[9:49] income in Newport Beach, 19 times median income in Palo
[9:54] Alto, 12 times in San Jose, and 11 times in San Francisco.
[9:59] This compares to a national average of 5.6 times for the
[10:03] overall United States, according to researchers from Harvard.
[10:08] According to the Hoover Institution headquarters,
[10:11] migrations out of Santa Clara, Alameda and San Mateo counties
[10:15] reflect high tech companies in the digital and social media
[10:19] world opting for less expensive locations not only to control
[10:24] business costs, but so that they can recruit workers who will
[10:27] benefit from lower housing costs in other states.
[10:31] California's 3 greatest challenges today are rising
[10:35] unemployment, growing fiscal strains, and population
[10:38] outflows, all of which relate to each other and don't have easy
[10:42] solutions. In the United States, overall,
[10:46] the unemployment situation is quite good, with an unemployment
[10:50] rate near its long term lows and with 1.6 job openings per
[10:54] unemployed person. In California, the situation is
[10:58] a lot worse. Unemployment rose more than in
[11:01] any other state since interest rates were hiked in 2022, and
[11:05] there are just 0.8 job openings per unemployed person, the worst
[11:10] ratio in the country. Big Tech, which had hired
[11:13] aggressively during the 0 interest rate environment, began
[11:17] laying off staff a few years ago as soon as they experienced a
[11:21] slowdown. These layoffs affected the
[11:23] overall Californian economy, not just tech, as when laid off tech
[11:28] workers stopped spending, it affected retailers, restaurants,
[11:32] transport and service workers too.
[11:35] With the slowdown, California's income tax collection fell by
[11:39] 25% last year. A drop equivalent to decline
[11:44] that happened during the bursting ofthe.com bubble in
[11:47] 2000 and the global financial crisis in 2008.
[11:51] California's state constitution requires a balanced budget in
[11:56] that if proposed spending exceeds estimated revenues, the
[12:00] governor has to recommend the sources to make up the budget
[12:04] shortfall. Governor Newsom projected a
[12:06] deficit of $38 billion for this fiscal year, but the Legislative
[12:12] Analyst's Office, a nonpartisan fiscal advisor for California's
[12:16] legislature, has estimated that the state is on track to spend
[12:21] $73 billion more than it brings in in taxes.
[12:25] This is quite an about turn, as just two years ago the state had
[12:30] a $100 billion budget surplus. The reason California's budget
[12:35] fluctuates so wildly is that California has a very
[12:38] progressive tax structure for higher earners pay a much larger
[12:43] share of taxes. When the state's highest earners
[12:46] do well, the state budget does well, like in 2022.
[12:50] But during business slowdowns, tax revenues dry right up.
[12:55] This volatility in tax collections explains why every
[12:59] few years California has a major fiscal crisis.
[13:03] Governor Newsom defends this set up, saying that it creates a
[13:07] lower tax burden on low and middle income workers.
[13:10] But the problem is that the policies are pro cyclical,
[13:14] meaning that when the state needs to spend money during a
[13:17] slowdown, it has no money to spend and instead needs to cut
[13:21] back. It's not obvious that cutbacks
[13:24] on government programs that are most relied on by low income
[13:28] workers during downturns benefits them.
[13:31] Solutions that have been put forth for dealing with the
[13:34] current budget deficit include deferring promised funding for
[13:38] universities, the homeless and the disabled.
[13:41] In prior budget crises, Californian politicians have
[13:45] played games like pushing payments out an extra day so
[13:49] that they come out of next year's budget are paying IO us
[13:52] to businesses, students and taxpayers to whom it owed money.
[13:56] None of this fixes the core problem.
[13:59] The LA Times writes that despite what people believe,
[14:03] overspending is only a small part of California's problem.
[14:07] They say that the state's fiscal headache is largely the result
[14:11] of an unstable tax system that relies too heavily on the rich.
[14:16] For decades, California's revenues have been heavily
[14:19] dependent on capital gains taxes on the richest residents.
[14:24] Thus, revenues spike in years when the stock market booms as a
[14:28] lot of IPOs occur and investors sell stocks and other assets.
[14:32] For example, Facebook's IPO in 2012 brought in an extra $1.3
[14:37] billion in state taxes. The problem is that in years
[14:42] with an IPO drought, insufficient taxes are collected
[14:45] to keep government programs running.
[14:48] As an example, in 2021, the top 110th of 1% of Californians paid
[14:55] almost 30% of Allstate income tax.
[14:58] The problem with relying on such a small number of people for
[15:02] such a large percentage of state taxes is that if they choose to
[15:06] leave the state, the tax revenue drives right up.
[15:10] A famous example of over reliance on top earners was in
[15:14] 2016 when New Jerseys wealthiest resident moved to Florida,
[15:19] throwing the New Jersey State budget into chaos as hundreds of
[15:23] millions of expected revenues evaporated.
[15:27] This is already a problem in California.
[15:30] The state has been losing a growing number of high earning
[15:33] residents, with the trend picking up pace during the
[15:36] pandemic. In 2021, according to The
[15:39] Economist, the state lost almost $30 billion in net taxpayer
[15:44] income to other states as wealthy taxpayers relocated.
[15:49] California was not always set up like this.
[15:52] In the 1950s, income tax made-up only 10% of California.
[15:57] California general fund and sales tax, which is much more
[16:01] stable, was the main revenue source.
[16:03] Since then, California has become much more of a services
[16:07] based economy and is one of the few states that doesn't tax
[16:11] services. Tim Hartford wrote an article
[16:14] this week on some of the strange taxes that have been introduced
[16:18] throughout history. Like Peter the Great's beard
[16:21] tax, whose aim was to encourage Russian nobles to shave.
[16:25] Or Argentina's bachelor tax, which brought about a new
[16:29] profession, the Lady Rejecter, where women would charge men a
[16:33] fee to write a letter stating that the man had proposed
[16:37] marriage to her and that she had declined the offer.
[16:40] The fact that the man had tried but failed made him exempt from
[16:44] the tax. Hartford, who was writing about
[16:47] the UK and not California, argued that it often works
[16:51] better when a government needs to raise revenue to broaden the
[16:55] tax base while lowering the tax rate at the same time, rather
[16:59] than to single out small groups to tax.
[17:02] This is possibly more the case for a state than a country, as
[17:06] it's easier to move to a neighbouring state in the United
[17:09] States than it is to move to another country.
[17:12] The Economist points out that there's nothing new about more
[17:16] Americans leaving California than move there.
[17:18] They say that this has been going on for over 30 years, but
[17:22] they point out that something else has changed.
[17:25] California's population still grew over that period because of
[17:30] foreign immigrants arriving there to work.
[17:32] A slowdown in immigration to California from abroad that
[17:36] started during the pandemic has sustained, and California has
[17:40] now seen an outright decline in its population for three
[17:44] straight years, the first sustained drop since becoming a
[17:48] state in 1850. California's reliance on capital
[17:52] gains taxes limits the state's flexibility to fix its budget
[17:56] crisis, as hiking taxes further could just drive more rich
[18:01] Californians to leave, exacerbating the problem.
[18:04] According to the Hoover Institute, California has hit a
[18:08] wall where the state can't bring in any more tax revenue without
[18:12] significantly damaging the economy.
[18:15] California's state income tax rate is amongst the steepest for
[18:19] wealthy people in the United States, topping out at 13.3% for
[18:24] millionaires, and it's gasoline tax of almost $0.60 per gallon
[18:29] is the nation's highest. Well, California's taxes are
[18:32] very progressive, hitting the wealthiest the hardest.
[18:36] The Public Policy Institute of California reports that 70% of
[18:40] Californians still feel that they are paying more than they
[18:44] should in state and local taxes. Most taxpayers weigh up what
[18:50] they get in terms of public services for their tax money.
[18:53] And with high crime and extreme levels of homelessness, many
[18:57] Californians don't feel that they get additional public
[19:00] services that are not available in low tax states.
[19:04] They simply feel that they're not getting value for their
[19:07] money. The one area where the state's
[19:09] tax collections are lower than in other states is property tax.
[19:14] Proposition 13, which was adopted by California voters in
[19:18] 1978, requires that properties be assessed at market value at
[19:23] the time of their sale, and after that, assessments can't
[19:26] rise by more than 2% per year until the house is sold again.
[19:31] This means that in a situation where property values increase
[19:35] by more than 2% per year, which they have in California,
[19:38] California home owners are incentivized to stay in their
[19:42] original home rather than move, as their taxes are lower than
[19:46] they would be in a different House of the exact same value.
[19:50] This distorts the Californian real estate market, and the data
[19:54] shows that Californians tend to move house a lot less than
[19:58] Americans in other states. This rule benefits wealthier
[20:02] older residents at the expense of new home buyers.
[20:06] The people who have left California cite high taxes,
[20:09] expensive real estate, crime, homelessness, and over
[20:13] regulation as the reasons they decided to move to other states.
[20:17] So how bad is the regulatory environment in California?
[20:21] We saw earlier that California has the most regulation of any
[20:25] state in the US by a significant margin.
[20:28] But the same report showed that Texas, a state that people are
[20:31] leaving California for, is number 5 on that list, which
[20:35] doesn't seem a whole lot better. According to the Pacific
[20:39] Research Institute, California doesn't just have more
[20:42] regulations than other states, but the regulations themselves
[20:46] are more restrictive than in other states, too.
[20:50] The report argues that California's regulatory
[20:53] environment is particularly difficult for small businesses
[20:57] that lack the scale to efficiently manage the
[20:59] administrative burdens and finance the higher costs created
[21:03] by onerous regulations, according to the Bureau of Labor
[21:07] Statistics. A big reason for the migrations
[21:11] we've seen from states like New York and California to states
[21:15] like Florida and Texas is that the pandemic weakened the
[21:18] economic clusters that dominated pre pandemic America.
[21:23] Pre pandemic, 19% of all tech jobs were based in California.
[21:28] Today, only 16 1/2 percent are. It's not just tech jobs that are
[21:33] moving out of state either. According to the LA Times, film
[21:37] and TV workers are leaving, too. During the pandemic, when work
[21:42] could be done remotely, people moved to more affordable
[21:46] locations. This happened right as the tech
[21:49] industry was booming, which just meant that California had a
[21:52] smaller slice of a growing pie. Everything seemed fine once the
[21:57] tech recession occurred. As interest rates rose,
[22:00] California was just losing outright with a smaller slice of
[22:05] a smaller pie. High technology stocks today
[22:08] make up just under 1/3 of the value of the S&P 500 index.
[22:14] If you add in communication services stocks, many of which
[22:17] connect with the technology arena, the group represents more
[22:21] than 40% of the overall stock market.
[22:24] On top of this, there are lots of huge privately owned tech
[22:28] firms too. The growth of the tech sector
[22:31] has been a huge contributor to Californian growth over the last
[22:35] 60 years, but people are starting to question if these
[22:39] companies can continue to grow from their already massive size
[22:43] going forward. The tech sector is well suited
[22:47] to California as it relies on small numbers of highly paid
[22:51] workers to design products or software that are really
[22:54] scalable. Unfortunately for the state, you
[22:58] wouldn't really manufacture physical products there due to
[23:01] the expense of real estate, high regulation, and high taxes.
[23:05] There's a reason that every Apple product says designed in
[23:08] California, made in China, and taxed in Ireland on the back of
[23:12] it. If the tech industry stops
[23:15] growing, the state might struggle.
[23:18] Tech layoffs have been hitting California quite hard over the
[23:21] last two years. I made a whole video about this
[23:24] a few months ago, and while Californian tech workers
[23:27] received the highest average tech pay of any US state, they
[23:31] have not only been hit the hardest with layoffs, but also
[23:35] withstood the largest year over year pay drop when they find new
[23:39] jobs as demand for their skills has dried up since the gold
[23:44] rush, California's economy has been built on ready access to
[23:48] freshwater. The state's agriculture sector
[23:51] faces significant water challenges today due to
[23:55] prolonged droughts and over reliance on groundwater.
[23:59] California's water reservoirs are often well below average
[24:03] capacity today, leading to stringent water use
[24:06] restrictions. This puts a lot of strain on the
[24:09] agricultural sector, which is vital to California's economy.
[24:13] And once again, there's no obvious solution to this
[24:16] problem. California clearly faces a
[24:20] number of challenges and it's economy today is suffering in
[24:23] ways that the overall U.S. economy is not.
[24:27] But California has had rough patches in the past, like in the
[24:31] early 2000s and in the wake of the credit crunch.
[24:34] But it's innovation LED growth model has managed to stand the
[24:37] test of time. The state made-up 14% of
[24:41] America's total output last year, up from 12 1/2% in the
[24:46] late 1990s. There's no need to count the
[24:49] state out yet. The biggest problems appear to
[24:53] be unaffordable housing, excess regulation, and a pro cyclical
[24:57] tax system that finds itself in crisis every few years.
[25:02] The unaffordable housing problem is driven by a combination of
[25:06] excessive regulation and Nimbyism, which combined make
[25:10] California the most difficult part of the United States to
[25:13] build new housing in. Fixing this problem would likely
[25:17] fix a lot of California's other problems.
[25:20] It's worth noting that the states that people have been
[25:23] moving to, the ones experiencing the fastest growth, are also the
[25:27] states with affordable housing, where it's easy to build.
[25:31] Workers simply like living in places where they can afford a
[25:35] comfortable home, and employers like hiring in these places as
[25:39] workers with affordable homes are willing to accept lower pay.
[25:43] You don't really benefit from high pay if it all goes out the
[25:47] door, and housing costs. So can all of California's
[25:50] problems just be blamed on progressivism?
[25:53] After all, Californian refugees have been moving to states where
[25:57] there are no state income taxes, to states with lower regulation
[26:01] where it's easier to build, or to places where crime rates are
[26:05] lower than in the Golden State. Janan Ganesh made an interesting
[26:09] point in a recent FT article on the balance between the right
[26:13] and left, arguing that the governing climate in which urban
[26:17] life flourishes is a blend of progressive ideas such as
[26:21] liberal immigration rules and infrastructure spending, with
[26:24] conservative ideas like market incentives and toughness on
[26:28] crime. He argues that while cities
[26:31] might benefit from low taxes, less burdensome regulation, and
[26:36] a business friendly atmosphere, they often vote for policies
[26:40] that would harm them. California has been a hugely
[26:43] successful economy because of its ability to attract the best
[26:47] and brightest, and if these people are starting to move away
[26:51] for greener pastures, it might be worthwhile mimicking some of
[26:55] the qualities of the states that are attracting them away.
[26:59] Thanks for tuning into this week's podcast, with a special
[27:01] thanks to my supporters on Patreon who make it all happen.
[27:05] If you'd like to support the podcast, there's a link in the
[27:07] show notes. Talk to you again soon.
[27:10] Bye.

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