# The Crisis Hidden Inside the Iran War

An episode of [Patrick Boyle On Finance](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1547740313), 29 Mar 2026, 28 min.

Audio: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/APO2319678037.mp3

Equity markets have spent the past month treating the war in Iran like a minor inconvenience — a 'buy the dip' opportunity rather than a structural crisis. But while stock traders debate whether the President will 'TACO out' of the conflict, the real story is unfolding in the commodities that never make the headlines: LNG, helium, fertilizer, and aluminium. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, Qatar's liquefaction plants in ruins, and Oxford Economics estimating the waterway will remain largely impassable until May, no Truth Social post is going to fix this. In this video, we look at why the physical damage to the region's infrastructure means the economic fallout will be felt long after the shooting stops — and why the winners and losers of this crisis are not who you'd expect. Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel: Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle

## Transcript

[0:00] If you've been gauging the severity of the war in Iran by
[0:03] just looking at the S&P 500, you'd be forgiven for thinking
[0:07] that the whole thing is just a minor administrative hurdle, the
[0:11] kind that clears up after a weekend of strongly worded
[0:14] tweets. Equity investors, it would
[0:17] appear, have decided that a regional conflict might just be
[0:21] a by the dip opportunity. dot com finally broke on Thursday
[0:26] when stocks had their worst day since the conflict began with
[0:30] the S&P 500 sliding to a six month low and the tech heavy
[0:35] NASDAQ officially crossing into a technical correction, meaning
[0:40] that it's more than 10% below it's high.
[0:43] The mood on the bond and commodity desks remains grim.
[0:47] Analysts there are staring at their screens in a state of what
[0:51] 1 commentator called alarming cognitive dissonance.
[0:56] In the bond market, the term premium, effectively the
[0:59] insurance premium investors charge for holding long term
[1:03] debt, is surging. Robert Armstrong noted this week
[1:07] that while 10 year interest rates have gone up, break even
[1:11] inflation has stayed relatively flat.
[1:13] This suggests that investors aren't just worried about
[1:17] inflation, they're worried that in a world of supply shocks,
[1:20] bonds no longer act as a good hedge for stocks.
[1:24] They simply both fall at the same time.
[1:27] In the UK, 30 year gilt yields have climbed to 5 1/2% as the
[1:33] Bank of England faces a central bankers nightmare, an energy
[1:37] shock that raises inflation while killing growth.
[1:41] This divergent is being driven by a new Wall Street obsession,
[1:45] the Trump Pressure Index. Developed by Deutsche Bank's
[1:49] head of Cross Asset Strategy, the index is made-up of the one
[1:53] month change in Trump's approval ratings, one year inflation
[1:57] expectations, the performance of the S&P 500 and U.S.
[2:02] Treasury yields. The idea is that these are the
[2:05] things that Trump cares the most about.
[2:08] Sorry Eric, but you just didn't make the list.
[2:11] The higher the index goes, the more pressure Trump is under to
[2:15] make a change to his strategy. In Iran, traders are using this
[2:20] to predict when the administration will experience
[2:23] what Robert Armstrong calls a Taco moment.
[2:26] The acronym, coined about a year ago, stands for Trump Always
[2:30] Chickens Out. We saw this play out in real
[2:34] time on Thursday. Just 11 minutes after the
[2:37] closing bell, the president posted a 10 day extension to his
[2:41] peace deadline, pausing his threats to destroy Iranian
[2:45] energy plants until April 6th. Now we have to ask ourselves, do
[2:50] stock traders actually believe these announcements?
[2:54] A few weeks ago, the president announced that the war was very
[2:57] complete, pretty much causing stocks to rise and oil to fall.
[3:02] Those moves reverse themselves later as events in the Middle
[3:06] East dragged on. Earlier this week, Trump
[3:09] announced that the US and Iran had held very good and
[3:13] productive conversations about ending war, once again causing
[3:18] stocks to rise and oil to fall, even though Iranian leaders
[3:22] quickly came out and denied having any talks.
[3:25] I'm not sure the traders actually believe these peace
[3:29] announcements, but they possibly see the announcements as a
[3:33] signal that the president's resolve is weakening.
[3:36] They aren't buying the peace so much as they're buying the
[3:39] capitulation. But possible problem with that
[3:43] is that you can't necessarily tackle out of an actual war as
[3:48] easily as you can a trade war. Unlike a trade dispute, which is
[3:52] a matter of administrative ink, the Strait of Homeowners is
[3:56] currently governed by mines and broken infrastructure.
[4:00] Even if a ceasefire was signed tomorrow, oil wells can't just
[4:04] be turned back on like a kitchen tap.
[4:06] It takes weeks to bring them back online without causing
[4:10] permanent damage. But even if Trump does blink,
[4:14] negotiating a deal assumes that there's a credible leader on the
[4:18] other side of the table, and the war has left Iran's command and
[4:21] control in total disarray. As the saying goes, it takes 2
[4:26] to tackle. Or at least I think that is what
[4:29] the saying is. Senior officials in Iran are
[4:32] reportedly underground and avoiding all electronic
[4:36] communications for fear of targeted assassinations.
[4:40] It's not clear if any single diplomat in Tehran actually
[4:44] speaks for the Revolutionary Guards, the people who actually
[4:48] have their fingers on the buttons.
[4:50] A formal agreement signed in a safe house may have little
[4:53] effect on a field commander at a remote missile side who's either
[4:57] unable to receive orders or probably doesn't respect the
[5:01] authority of the person who sent them.
[5:04] Today we're going to look at why this crisis is about much more
[5:08] than just the price of Brent crude and how the global economy
[5:11] may be approaching a supply Cliff that no true social post
[5:16] can fix. We'll look at the single points
[5:18] of failure for global industry commodities like helium, LNG,
[5:23] aluminium and fertilizer that have no easy alternative routes.
[5:28] We'll also discuss the winners and losers of this new reality,
[5:32] and why the physical damage to the region's infrastructure
[5:35] means that we'll likely be living with the fallout of this
[5:39] war long after the shooting stops.
[5:41] Now, while much of the general news coverage is quite rightly
[5:45] focused on the military conflict and the human cost of the war,
[5:48] the financial headlines have focused almost exclusively on
[5:52] the price of oil. And this is understandable
[5:54] because it's the source of the region's immense wealth.
[5:58] But if you're only watching the price price of a barrel of Brent
[6:01] crude, which hit $110 this morning, you're likely missing
[6:06] the real story. Oil, for all of its importance,
[6:09] is a relatively fungible commodity.
[6:12] If a shipment is blocked in the Gulf, you can eventually find
[6:16] another barrel in West TX, Guyana, or the North Sea,
[6:20] provided you're willing to pay up for it.
[6:22] The real crisis is to be found in commodities that are much
[6:26] harder to replace. According to ship tracking data,
[6:30] we're currently approaching a Cliff edge as the final LNG
[6:34] tankers that loaded in the Gulf before the blockade began are
[6:38] due to reach their destinations in the next few days.
[6:41] When snow ships are unloaded, the flow of these commodities
[6:45] essentially stops. Qatar produces 1/5 of the
[6:49] world's liquefied natural gas and nearly all of its exports
[6:53] have been halted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
[6:56] Unlike oil, LNG requires massive specialized liquification plans
[7:02] to turn gas into liquid for transport.
[7:05] The Raz Lafan facility in Qatar has already suffered enormous
[7:09] damage from Iranian missile strikes.
[7:12] The Qatari energy minister has warned that 17% of their
[7:16] capacity will be out of service for three to five years, forcing
[7:21] them to declare force majeure on long term contracts.
[7:25] This is a hole in the the global energy supply that no amount of
[7:29] diplomatic pressure can fail. Then there's helium.
[7:33] Around 33% of global seaborne helium passes through the Strait
[7:38] of Hormuz. Helium is a non renewable
[7:41] byproduct of natural gas, and it's essential for cooling the
[7:46] Super magnets used in manufacturing semiconductor
[7:49] chips. There's no synthetic substitute,
[7:52] and for high tech manufacturing hubs in Asia and the US, there's
[7:56] no easy way to reroute the supply.
[7:59] We also have to consider fertilizer and aluminium. 1/3 of
[8:04] the world's seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the
[8:07] straight, along with 1/4 of the world's seaborne aluminium.
[8:11] Since the US and Israel launched their strikes, including a fresh
[8:15] wave of strikes on Tehran this morning, the price of nitrogen
[8:19] based fertilizer has skyrocketed.
[8:21] This happened right as farmers in the Northern Hemisphere are
[8:25] heading into springtime when they fertilize their fields.
[8:29] This is a lurking threat to food security.
[8:32] As UAE Minister Sultan Al Jabaar put it this week, Iran holds
[8:37] Hormuz hostage and every nation pays the ransom at the grocery
[8:41] store. If farmers in Asia and Africa
[8:44] can't fertilize their crops this spring, the World Food Program
[8:48] warns that we could see record levels of acute hunger by 2027.
[8:54] These are the single points of failure in our modern supply
[8:58] chain. The optimism that we see in the
[9:00] stock market relies on the idea that these are temporary
[9:04] hitches. But with Iran now asserting
[9:06] sovereignty over the straight and reportedly demanding a
[9:10] $2,000,000 fee for every vessel that wants to pass, the physical
[9:15] reality suggests that we're moving into an era of scarcity
[9:19] that a simple ceasefire won't fix.
[9:22] Even if a breakthrough is reached by Trump's new April 6
[9:26] deadline, the immediate relief rally will likely see in the
[9:30] stock market will be at odds with the reality on the water.
[9:34] To understand why, we have to look at 3 specific bottlenecks
[9:38] that a peace treaty cannot simply wish away.
[9:42] First, there's the problem of the shut in wells.
[9:45] Because the Strait of Homers has essentially been blocked for a
[9:49] month, Gulf producers were forced to stop as their storage
[9:53] tanks hit their limits. This is a much bigger problem
[9:57] than just pausing a production line.
[9:59] When you stop the flow of an oil well, the environment inside
[10:03] that well changes immediately. Without the constant heat and
[10:07] the movement of flowing oil, the crude starts to settle and
[10:11] separate. It can become waxy and thick,
[10:14] physically clogging the tiny pores in the rock that the oil
[10:17] needs to travel through. In some cases, the surrounding
[10:21] groundwater can even seep into the oil layers, which can
[10:25] permanently drown a well's productivity.
[10:28] To make matters worse, many of these wells will have been
[10:32] closed using heavy mud or cement plugs, which are needed to keep
[10:36] them safe during the fighting. Those plugs will have to be
[10:39] painstakingly drilled out before any oil can move again.
[10:44] If you try and force the pressure back too quickly, you
[10:47] risk cracking the underground formation and ruining the field
[10:51] forever. It's a delegate multi month
[10:54] restart process that doesn't just happen overnight.
[10:58] The second hurdle is the naval gauntlet.
[11:01] While the US and Israel have spent a month bombing Iran,
[11:04] they've achieved almost no substantive gains in loosening
[11:08] Iran's chokehold on the straight.
[11:11] This is why the Pentagon is currently sending in 10,000
[11:14] additional troops, including units trained to seize and hold
[11:18] land. Their mission appears to be
[11:21] prying the straight open by force, physically taking the
[11:25] islands and coastal slivers where Iran hides the drones and
[11:29] missiles that are keeping the American Navy at a distance.
[11:33] Even after those launch sites are secured, the waterway
[11:36] remains, at the very least, a suspected minefield.
[11:40] Whether or not Iran has actually laid thousands of mines, the
[11:44] mere risk of them creates what experts call a psychological
[11:48] blockade, which is just as effective as a physical one.
[11:52] Reopening the straits safely requires a careful naval
[11:56] operation, first hunting down any remaining threats like speed
[12:01] boats and drones that have been harassing shipping, followed by
[12:04] the slow, painstaking process of sweeping the water for mines.
[12:08] Only then can the final phase, providing continuous naval
[12:13] escorts for commercial tankers, actually begin.
[12:16] Finally, there's the logistical logjam.
[12:20] Traffic through the Strait has dropped 97% this month.
[12:25] The few ships that are moving are often dark fleet vessels.
[12:28] Are those willing to pay the $2,000,000 safe passage fee that
[12:32] Iran is currently demanding? Insurance premiums for the
[12:36] region haven't just spiked. In many cases, policies have
[12:40] been cancelled entirely. Ship captains and their crews
[12:44] are not going to steam back into a recently cleared war zone the
[12:48] moment a true social tweet goes out.
[12:51] They'll wait for a sustained all clear from naval authorities and
[12:55] for the insurance markets to normalize.
[12:58] When you combine all of these issues, the Oxford Economics
[13:02] timeline of the Strayed remaining largely impossible
[13:05] until May starts to look very realistic.
[13:09] Whenever a crisis like this breaks out, economists are quick
[13:13] to point out one comforting statistic Our oil intensity has
[13:17] collapsed. In the 1970s, it took roughly
[13:20] one full barrel of oil to produce $1000 of global GDP.
[13:26] Today, that number is less than half.
[13:28] We need only about .4 barrels to generate the same amount of
[13:32] economic output. The argument is that because
[13:36] we're more efficient, we're no longer the hostages to the
[13:39] Middle East that we were 50 years ago.
[13:42] But this is a dangerous distraction.
[13:45] While we've moved away from oil as a primary fuel for factories
[13:49] and home heating, we haven't actually reduced our energy
[13:52] vulnerability. We've simply transferred it to
[13:55] the power grid in much of the world.
[13:57] Electricity prices are set at the margin by natural gas fired
[14:02] power plants. So when the Strait closes and
[14:05] 20% of the world's LNG vanishes, the shock doesn't just hit the
[14:09] gas pump, it hits electrical sockets too.
[14:13] And this is where the modern U.S. economy has a weakness that
[14:17] didn't exist in the 1970's, the AI revolution.
[14:21] Right now we're near the start of what's being described as the
[14:25] largest infrastructure build out in human history.
[14:28] Centred entirely on hyperscale data centres, these facilities
[14:33] are essentially giant energy things that require massive
[14:37] steady state power to function. To understand the scale,
[14:41] analysts look at these facilities in terms of
[14:44] gigawatts. One GW is enough power to run a
[14:48] mid sized city, or about 750,000 homes.
[14:52] The International Energy Agency predicts that by 20-30 the
[14:56] global demand from these data centers will grow by an
[15:00] additional 50 gigawatts. To put that in perspective, the
[15:04] electricity needed just to keep the world's AI chips running in
[15:08] four years time is expected to be equivalent to the total power
[15:12] consumption of Germany and France combined, or roughly 3
[15:18] 1/2 times the total power consumption of the UK.
[15:22] These projects represent hundreds of billions of dollars
[15:25] in capital investment, and the United States appears to be
[15:29] pinning it's expected growth in the coming years on AI build
[15:33] out. An energy shock today would
[15:35] likely be very different to the 1970s, where there were long
[15:39] lines of gas stations. But it's not reasonable to claim
[15:43] that energy scarcity won't impact growth.
[15:46] In the world of geopolitics, winning doesn't always involve
[15:50] having the best military. Sometimes it just means being
[15:53] the last person to run out of somebody else's money.
[15:57] The terms winner and loser often have very little to do with
[16:01] whose cities are being bombed and everything to do with
[16:04] relative strategic advantage. If we look at the scorecard for
[16:07] this conflict, the results are surprising and deeply
[16:11] counterintuitive. It's difficult to call a country
[16:15] a winner when it's air defenses are in pieces and its leadership
[16:19] is hiding in bunkers to avoid assassination.
[16:22] So the best we can say for Iran is that it's a survivor.
[16:26] But as The Economist argues, for the Islamic Republic, mere
[16:30] survival against the combined might of the US and Israel
[16:34] counts as a victory of sorts. Iran has successfully
[16:38] demonstrated that it can hold the global economy hostage using
[16:42] nothing more than asymmetric tools, cheap drones, missiles,
[16:46] and the credible threat of underwater mines.
[16:49] Most strikingly, in a move that highlights just how desperate
[16:53] the global energy situation has become, the US appears to have
[16:57] quietly retreated on its own sanctions.
[17:00] Despite being in an active shooting war with Tehran, the
[17:04] Trump administration has temporarily waved sanctions on
[17:07] 140 million barrels of Iranian oil currently at sea because the
[17:12] supply stock from the Straits closure is so painful that the
[17:16] White House cannot afford to keep those one and a half
[17:19] million barrels a day off the market while Gulf allies watch
[17:24] their own tankers sit idle. Iran is currently getting its
[17:27] crew to China and is now attempting to institutionalized
[17:31] a $2,000,000 safe passage fee for non hostile vessels.
[17:37] If they can make this stick, they could generate up to $80
[17:40] billion a year, effectively replacing their lost oil revenue
[17:45] with a global transit tax. Russia is perhaps the most
[17:49] unambiguous winner of the crisis.
[17:52] Not only are soaring oil and gas prices relieving its previously
[17:56] strained budget, but it has now received its own sanctions
[18:00] holiday. On March 13th, the US Treasury
[18:04] lifted restrictions on Russian oil tankers currently at sea to
[18:08] prevent a global supply shock. This move has achieved 2 of
[18:12] Moscow's primary strategic goals, it provides an immediate
[18:16] cash infusion to its war effort in Ukraine, and it has triggered
[18:20] A bipartisan revolt in the US Congress, with lawmakers like
[18:25] Chuck Schumer labeling the policy asinine.
[18:28] By forcing the US to choose between between energy security
[18:33] and its foreign policy goals, Russia has successfully exposed
[18:36] the limits of American economic warfare.
[18:39] China occupies A fascinating and arguably enviable position.
[18:45] While it's the world's largest oil importer, it's now roughly
[18:49] 85% energy self-sufficient thanks to its massive domestic
[18:53] coal reserves and an aggressive multi year pivot to renewables.
[18:58] The upside for Beijing is that this oil shock is the best
[19:02] possible advert for Chinese technology, as the world may
[19:06] speed up its transition to solar panels, batteries, and EVs,
[19:10] industries that China absolutely dominates.
[19:14] While Netanyahu may be thrilled with the tactical success of the
[19:18] strikes, the strategic reality for Israel is much bleaker.
[19:23] Despite the bombardment of their enemy, Israel is not really any
[19:27] safer than before. Iranian missiles have still
[19:30] penetrated Israeli airspace, and the nuclear threat remains
[19:34] buried under rubble. Furthermore, the war is severely
[19:38] straining Israel's relationship with its most important patron.
[19:42] As US gasoline prices soar and markets slide, American voters
[19:47] are increasingly pointing the finger at the cost of supporting
[19:51] the conflict. Europe is currently facing what
[19:54] analysts call its second major energy crisis.
[19:58] With Qatari LNG completely cut off and domestic gas storage at
[20:03] a dangerously low 30% capacity, electricity surcharges of up to
[20:08] 30% are hitting heavy industry, leading to fears of permanent
[20:13] deindustrialization. The real shock to Europe isn't
[20:17] just economic. On March 20th, Iran fired 2
[20:21] ballistic missiles at. The USUK base at Diego Garcia.
[20:25] This strike demonstrated a range of 4000 kilometres, twice Iran's
[20:31] previously known capability. This means that every major
[20:35] European capital is within direct reach of Iranian
[20:39] missiles. If you want to find the G 20s
[20:42] biggest loser, you don't have to look much further than the
[20:45] United Kingdom. Because of its extreme
[20:48] dependence on imported natural gas, the UK is facing what
[20:52] Kenneth Rogoff calls the biggest stagflationary shock in five
[20:56] decades. The damage is appearing in real
[20:59] time. The route in the gilt market has
[21:02] pushed 10 year borrowing costs to their highest level since
[21:05] 2008, forcing lenders to withdraw over 1500 mortgage
[21:10] products from the market in a single month.
[21:13] Finally, there's the United States.
[21:16] On paper, the US is a winner. It's energy independence and
[21:20] status as a major LNG exporter have provided a massive windfall
[21:25] for domestic producers. But according to the FT, this
[21:29] insulation is something of a mirage, and the reason comes
[21:33] down to what economists call embedded energy.
[21:36] The US runs massive trade deficit in manufactured goods,
[21:40] and it takes an enormous amount of energy to produce those goods
[21:44] in factories across Asia and Europe.
[21:47] When energy costs for those global manufacturers skyrocket,
[21:51] those costs are eventually exported to the US in the form
[21:56] of higher prices for everything from electronics to clothing.
[22:00] The American grocery bill is also directly in the crosshairs.
[22:05] Because the US agricultural system is so heavily dependent
[22:09] on fossil fuels for both fuel and nitrogen based fertilizers,
[22:13] the energy shock in the Gulf translates almost immediately
[22:18] into higher prices for bread, meat, and dairy.
[22:21] This imported inflation has forced a radical shift at the
[22:25] Federal Reserve. This brings us back to the Trump
[22:29] Pressure Index. The president's political
[22:32] survival is tethered to the returns of the S&P 500,
[22:36] inflation, and the price at the pump.
[22:39] By making a big threat and then backing down the moment markets
[22:43] panicked, the administration has signalled to every adversary on
[22:47] earth that the fastest way to defeat a superpower is to strike
[22:52] it's retirement portfolios. I'm recording this video right
[22:56] before the market opens on Friday and S&P futures are down
[23:00] almost half a percent in the overnight market.
[23:03] And it's possible that markets are no longer giving the
[23:06] president the benefit of the doubt that his strategy in Iran
[23:10] is working beyond the major powers.
[23:13] The conflict is triggering a form of energy triage that's
[23:17] fundamentally reshaping daily life around the world.
[23:20] We have to start with the United Arab Emirates and the potential
[23:24] end of what we might call the Dubai dream.
[23:27] For decades, Dubai has branded itself as a neutral high luxury
[23:32] Oasis, a Singapore of the sands where you could do global
[23:36] business while the rest of the Middle East was in turmoil.
[23:39] But that brand is currently being battered.
[23:42] Since Iran began its retaliation on February 28th, the city has
[23:46] transformed from a billionaires playground into a ghost town in
[23:50] just three weeks. The problem is demographic.
[23:54] Over 90% of Dubai's population is foreign born.
[23:58] When you don't have deep roots in a location, stability isn't a
[24:02] luxury, it's the entire product. The mobile elite have already
[24:07] hit the exit. We've seen reports that the
[24:10] hedge fund Millennium Management is exploring a relocation of its
[24:14] Dubai based staff to Jersey after drone debris reportedly
[24:18] damaged the building housing their offices.
[24:21] Which leaves us wondering if Andrew Tate will soon be the
[24:24] only person left on the Palm Jumeirah.
[24:27] While wealthy expats might fleet tax neutral islands in the
[24:31] English Channel, the rest of the world is entering a period of
[24:34] energy rationing. Governments almost entirely
[24:38] dependent on Middle Eastern energy are racing to save what
[24:41] little they have left. In Thailand, the Prime Minister
[24:44] has ordered civil servants to take the stairs instead of
[24:48] elevators to save power. In the Philippines, the
[24:52] government has shifted to a four day work week and ordered
[24:55] officers to switch off computers during lunch breaks.
[24:59] This rationing highlights a brutal divide.
[25:03] While wealthy nations like the US and the UK can use massive
[25:07] subsidies to shield their citizens from the worst of the
[25:10] price hikes, they are inadvertently suffocating
[25:14] everyone else. But by artificially keeping
[25:17] domestic demand high, rich countries block the price signal
[25:22] that would normally force a drop in consumption.
[25:25] This leaves the world's poorest nations to bear the full brunt
[25:28] of the scarcity. In Bangladesh, universities have
[25:32] been closed, and in Pakistan and India the gas shortage is so
[25:37] acute that families are being issued half filled cylinders of
[25:41] cooking gas. Shortages aren't just happening
[25:44] in poor countries either. A Japanese potato chip company
[25:48] had to halt production this week due to a shortage of oil, which
[25:52] is a relatively minor inconvenience in Japan.
[25:55] But if deep fries went dark somewhere like Scotland, where
[25:59] people have evolved to subsist entirely on deep fried food, it
[26:03] could cause a genuine famine. As we approach the next deadline
[26:08] on April 6th, the temptation is to believe that a deal will
[26:12] return everything to the status quo, but the logistics of oil
[26:16] and gas may not be so easily appeased.
[26:19] Even if a deal is signed tomorrow, the economic fallout
[26:24] from this conflict will likely be felt well into next winter
[26:28] and possibly for years beyond. This crisis has highlighted
[26:32] something that we've also been seeing in Ukraine, that you
[26:36] don't need a peer level military to defeat a superpower.
[26:40] By holding the global economy hostile, Iran has shown that
[26:44] asymmetric disruption is just as effective as traditional warfare
[26:49] in achieving your goals. The fact that the US has been
[26:53] forced to ease sanctions on its enemies is the ultimate proof
[26:57] that in the modern world, the market is a more sensitive
[27:01] target than any military base. The 2nd shift is the end of the
[27:06] idea of security by distance. For decades, Europe viewed
[27:10] Middle Eastern volatility as a tragic but distant problem.
[27:14] The breakthrough of the 4000 kilometre missile has ended that
[27:19] luxury. Every European capital is now
[27:22] within reach of a power that has proven it's willing to strike
[27:26] whomever it needs to to get its way.
[27:29] Ultimately, a negotiated de escalation might provide a sigh
[27:34] of relief, but it can't Weld the turbines back together at Ras
[27:38] Lafan. And it can't erase the new
[27:40] reality of fragmented alliances, where energy security has
[27:45] replaced ideology as the ultimate geopolitical currency.
[27:49] The stock market might be buying the peace trade today, but the
[27:53] physical world moves at its own pace, dictated by ships, pipes,
[27:58] and turbines rather than sentiment.
[28:00] Thanks again for tuning into this week's podcast, with
[28:03] special thanks to my supporters on Patreon whose financial
[28:06] support makes this whole thing happen.
[28:09] If you'd like to sign up on Patreon, I'll leave a link in
[28:13] the show notes. Have a great week and talk to
[28:15] you again soon. Bye.

Shows are listed from Apple Podcasts' charts and directory, and Podcast Index where it is used. Every show and episode belongs to its publisher and plays from the publisher's own feed; this site hosts none of them.