# Brett Kollmann & Trevor Sikkema's ULTIMATE 2026 Season Preview | NFL Pro

An episode of [NFL: The Insiders](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1543090622), 4 Sep 2026, 1 h 08 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/f10d0743-9ff9-4fde-8286-b4b200dd74e1/687b7991-a580-4089-85e7-b4bb0117da1f/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=3e412703-0644-468e-9001-ae390070e4db

NFL Pro's Brett Kollmann and NFL Stock Exchange's Trevor Sikkema go deep into their bag with Next Gen Stats insights & dissecting all-22 film to break down old faces in new places who'll have the most impact, which team's are poised to make the playoff leap in 2026 and who's out. Plus, is the Air Raid offense dead? The boys also test their knowledge in a game of STAT or CAP and give their season awards predictions. Welcome to NFL Valhalla. With NFL+ Premium, get access to NFL Pro and over 95 unique player and team performance stats and all-22 film for an advanced analytics platform. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: What's up, sickos? Welcome to the NFL Pro Podcast, 2026
[0:04] Speaker 1: season preview show. If you're listening to this on audio,
[0:08] Speaker 1: be sure to subscribe to the NFL Pro Podcast all
[0:11] Speaker 1: season long as we deep dive into the hottest NFL
[0:13] Speaker 1: trends and teach you to analyze the game like a pro. Football.
[0:19] Speaker 1: The bigger the game, the bigger the focus.
[0:21] Speaker 2: Oh, it's season preview time here on the NFL Pro Channel.
[0:24] Speaker 1: Yo, boys ready? Hell yeah! Yo, boys ready? Hell yeah!
[0:27] Speaker 2: Yo, boys ready? Today, we're talking about new teams that
[0:31] Speaker 2: are poised to take the leap into the postseason this year.
[0:36] Speaker 2: We're going to identify some secret superstars around the league,
[0:39] Speaker 2: give you our season awards, but a couple of picks,
[0:41] Speaker 2: ones with the head and then with the heart as well.
[0:44] Speaker 1: Can't be more thankful, can't be more proud for you guys.
[0:47] Speaker 1: You too, coach. Oh, come on.
[0:50] Speaker 2: I'm going to show you a play that Sean Payton
[0:53] Speaker 2: designed for Reggie Bush back in 2006 that I think
[0:57] Speaker 2: is making a comeback here in 2026.
[0:59] Speaker 1: All right, that's the first one. Let's get a breakdown.
[1:02] Speaker 1: Great job. Great job.
[1:07] Speaker 2: The man who is a company man right next to
[1:09] Speaker 2: me with the NFL hat, that is Brett Coleman. And myself,
[1:12] Speaker 2: the company man with the NFL pro shirt, I am
[1:14] Speaker 2: Trevor Sikma. Appreciate you guys tuning in. and watching this
[1:17] Speaker 2: season preview here. But Brett, how you doing, my friend?
[1:20] Speaker 1: I'm good. This is actually a remnants of a Rob
[1:23] Speaker 1: Lowe Halloween costume that I got years ago. Wait, is
[1:29] Speaker 1: it actually a Rob Lowe costume? Yes. Yes. I swear
[1:32] Speaker 1: to God. I flew out to Buffalo for like the
[1:34] Speaker 1: first Sunday night game in Buffalo in a long time.
[1:36] Speaker 1: The Packers were visiting. I think Aaron Rodgers was still
[1:39] Speaker 1: on the Packers at this time. And it was Halloween weekend.
[1:41] Speaker 1: And so, like, I went trick-or-treating with my buddy and
[1:43] Speaker 1: his kids, went to the Packers or the Bills game
[1:46] Speaker 1: that weekend. And, you know, it's cold in Buffalo in October.
[1:50] Speaker 1: So I was like, OK, what Halloween costume can I
[1:51] Speaker 1: do that also involves being warm? It's like the Rob
[1:54] Speaker 1: Lowe trench coat, the Rob Lowe hat, wore it to
[1:57] Speaker 1: the game. I actually I got recognized. Like people identified
[2:02] Speaker 1: and were like shouting like Rob Lowe, let's go. And
[2:05] Speaker 1: so I've just had this hat ever since. I actually
[2:07] Speaker 1: can't find this hat anywhere anymore. I need to try
[2:10] Speaker 1: to source one because it's starting to get a little
[2:12] Speaker 1: beat up. But like it's one of my prized possessions. Brother,
[2:15] Speaker 1: we work for the league now.
[2:16] Speaker 2: I think we can get a generic NFL hat for
[2:18] Speaker 2: you at some point so you can get a new one.
[2:20] Speaker 2: So we got a lot of things to cover here
[2:22] Speaker 2: on this show. So we got to get it rolling.
[2:24] Speaker 1: Enough talk about what this year can be. It is
[2:27] Speaker 1: time to prove it. It's about to be a movie.
[2:29] Speaker 1: It's about to be a movie, man.
[2:31] Speaker 2: Let's do it. We've had a lot of coaches, players,
[2:34] Speaker 2: as they do every offseason, change spots, have some new homes,
[2:38] Speaker 2: some new threads, whatever you want to call it. But
[2:41] Speaker 2: the question is, is the grass greener? And we're going
[2:44] Speaker 2: to identify, you know, a couple of different scenarios where
[2:47] Speaker 2: somebody is making a change to a different team. And
[2:50] Speaker 2: we're going to talk about whether or not we think
[2:52] Speaker 2: that that's actually going to be a good change or not. So, Brett,
[2:56] Speaker 2: I'll let you kick this one off. Who do you
[2:58] Speaker 2: want to start with? Who do you want to shout
[3:00] Speaker 2: out here for the first player in a new spot?
[3:04] Speaker 1: Well, we wouldn't be a sports show without talking about
[3:08] Speaker 1: the Chiefs first and foremost. Ah, here we go. Here
[3:11] Speaker 1: we go. It's going to make sense. Brett, we were
[3:13] Speaker 1: supposed to be different. We're not. People tuned into this
[3:16] Speaker 1: show to be different.
[3:18] Speaker 2: And now you're bringing up How many times we could
[3:20] Speaker 2: say the word Patrick Mahomes in a 60-minute– no, I'm
[3:23] Speaker 2: just kidding.
[3:24] Speaker 1: I will not say Mahomes' name at all other than
[3:27] Speaker 1: that in this segment, I promise. The reason why I'm
[3:30] Speaker 1: bringing it up– so the central theme of today, at
[3:33] Speaker 1: least one of the central themes of today, is the
[3:35] Speaker 1: run game. How it affects the micro, how it affects
[3:38] Speaker 1: the macro. We're going to be touching on this a lot.
[3:40] Speaker 1: And so when I bring up the Chiefs first, it's
[3:43] Speaker 1: really because of the effect that Kenneth Walker has on
[3:46] Speaker 1: their run game. This is one of the biggest offseason
[3:49] Speaker 1: additions around the league because this team was straight up
[3:53] Speaker 1: awful in terms of generating explosive plays with their run game.
[3:57] Speaker 1: It's been that way for quite a while. And if
[4:00] Speaker 1: you're looking at league-wide trends, drives that have an explosive
[4:04] Speaker 1: play end in a touchdown 42% of the time, like
[4:07] Speaker 1: just over 42% of the time. That's a lot. If
[4:10] Speaker 1: you don't get an explosive play, it goes down to 4.3%.
[4:14] Speaker 1: So this league runs on explosives and however you can
[4:18] Speaker 1: get them, right? You know, one of the oldest adages
[4:21] Speaker 1: that I've operated on is the offensive line sets the
[4:23] Speaker 1: floor for a run game. The running back sets the ceiling.
[4:26] Speaker 1: The floor was actually pretty high for the Chiefs running
[4:29] Speaker 1: backs last year. This was a good team as far
[4:31] Speaker 1: as average yards before contact per attempt. And if you're
[4:34] Speaker 1: looking at the Chiefs running back room the last couple years,
[4:37] Speaker 1: they're the only team in the NFL that was sub 7%
[4:41] Speaker 1: explosive run rate. Like, that's atrocious. And a lot of
[4:45] Speaker 1: it is because Kareem Hunt just can't break tackles like
[4:47] Speaker 1: he used to. There's a whole bunch of examples where, hey,
[4:50] Speaker 1: we got all of our guys accounted for in the
[4:53] Speaker 1: blocking scheme. You need to make one miss on the edge.
[4:56] Speaker 1: And he just couldn't do it. Again, Hunt was effective
[4:58] Speaker 1: in that first half, but not on this play. You
[5:01] Speaker 1: contrast that with Kenneth Walker. who was exceptional at making
[5:04] Speaker 1: his guy miss. He had a 14.9% explosive run rate
[5:18] Speaker 1: last year, third best in the NFL among all running
[5:20] Speaker 1: backs with at least 100 carries. And the difference between
[5:24] Speaker 1: the Chiefs run game last year and the Seahawks run game,
[5:27] Speaker 1: I always go back to ceiling and floor, right? Ceiling
[5:30] Speaker 1: of a run game is set by the running back.
[5:32] Speaker 1: The floor is set by the offensive line. The Chiefs
[5:34] Speaker 1: offensive line actually set up the running backs for success
[5:38] Speaker 1: way better than people think. It's just they were so
[5:40] Speaker 1: atrocious in terms of yards after contact per attempt. Meanwhile,
[5:45] Speaker 1: you have Kenneth Walker, who's exceptional after contact. he can
[5:48] Speaker 1: actually turn those lanes that the Chiefs are going to
[5:50] Speaker 1: give him into explosive runs and therefore make this offense
[5:54] Speaker 1: just better by default. And the Seahawks are averaging about
[5:59] Speaker 1: eight yards a carry.
[6:00] Speaker 2: I love how you put that there with the offensive
[6:04] Speaker 2: line sets the floor, the running back sets the ceiling,
[6:06] Speaker 2: because that goes back to my scouting philosophy as well.
[6:09] Speaker 2: There's a lot of running backs that can work for
[6:13] Speaker 2: a run game, but how many truly work?
[6:15] Speaker 1: Elevate.
[6:16] Speaker 2: And that's, you know, sort of how I've tried to
[6:18] Speaker 2: make sure that my scouting process is really identifying and
[6:21] Speaker 2: prioritizing running backs that elevate. I thought Kenneth Walker, when
[6:24] Speaker 2: he was coming out in his draft season, absolutely a
[6:27] Speaker 2: running back that would elevate.
[6:28] Speaker 1: He has done that with the Seahawks. And I do agree.
[6:31] Speaker 2: I think he is the best chance to do that,
[6:33] Speaker 2: that they have had in a long time.
[6:35] Speaker 1: I mean, the last one they had that was over 10%
[6:37] Speaker 1: was Clydesdale's work to layer. And that was a half
[6:39] Speaker 1: decade ago. Like it's been a while.
[6:41] Speaker 2: This goes into the deeper, like, do running backs matter
[6:44] Speaker 2: contract value discussion, which I know we'll dive deep into
[6:47] Speaker 2: sort of at some point this season. But that's really
[6:50] Speaker 2: where it stems from, exactly what you just said. The
[6:53] Speaker 2: running back is the one that has to elevate the
[6:56] Speaker 2: ceiling of the run game. And if you don't have
[6:58] Speaker 2: a back that can either make guys miss in a
[7:01] Speaker 2: phone booth, get those yards after contact, get those explosive plays,
[7:06] Speaker 2: you're always, I think, going to be wanting more. So
[7:08] Speaker 2: I'm super excited about Kenneth Walker as well. All trolling
[7:10] Speaker 2: you aside, this was a good way to kick things off.
[7:13] Speaker 2: I think that this is going to be exciting to watch.
[7:16] Speaker 2: I want to go to Minnesota for my first one.
[7:18] Speaker 2: I understand that things were not great in Minnesota last year.
[7:21] Speaker 1: Most of what.
[7:22] Speaker 2: You heard there was just the craziness of the quarterback position.
[7:26] Speaker 1: Guys in and out.
[7:27] Speaker 2: McCarthy is no good. It just felt like everything took
[7:30] Speaker 2: a step back. Brett, do we forget that this team
[7:32] Speaker 2: won nine games last year?
[7:35] Speaker 1: Somehow.
[7:36] Speaker 2: Somehow, someway. But I'll tell you what the somehow, someway was.
[7:39] Speaker 2: Kevin O'Connell and Brian Flores, right? This is still this
[7:43] Speaker 2: coaching staff. So yeah, count me excited for Kyler Murray
[7:48] Speaker 2: being a part of this coaching staff.
[7:49] Speaker 1: And you know what?
[7:51] Speaker 2: I think Kyler has a career year this year. I
[7:53] Speaker 2: think Kyler has, in some ways, one of the best
[7:57] Speaker 2: years of his entire career. I think he throws for
[7:59] Speaker 2: over 4,000 yards for the first time in his career,
[8:01] Speaker 2: if he's fully healthy. And the reason why is because
[8:04] Speaker 2: I think a lot of people look at Kyler in
[8:06] Speaker 2: this Kevin O'Connell offense and they say, oh, he doesn't fit.
[8:10] Speaker 2: He doesn't fit and he's not going to work out.
[8:12] Speaker 2: Just because a guy didn't necessarily run it or hasn't
[8:15] Speaker 2: necessarily run it doesn't mean he's not going to be
[8:17] Speaker 2: a fit. I mean, Sure, Kyler has run basically exclusive
[8:21] Speaker 2: spread shotgun stuff throughout college and the NFL, but I'm
[8:25] Speaker 2: actually really excited about him in a more under center,
[8:28] Speaker 2: heavier play action, heavier boot game type of an offense.
[8:31] Speaker 2: Because when you go back to Sam Darnold two years ago,
[8:34] Speaker 2: when he was with Minnesota, he had the most rushing
[8:37] Speaker 2: attempts of his career, most rushing first downs of his career,
[8:40] Speaker 2: and the third most rushing yards, which is pretty much
[8:42] Speaker 2: close to where his rushing career high was. You look
[8:45] Speaker 2: at Kyler, since 2019, since he came into the league,
[8:48] Speaker 2: He's got almost 2,000 yards rushing, 12 touchdowns, 104 first downs.
[8:53] Speaker 2: All of those numbers are top five around the league
[8:55] Speaker 2: when it comes to a rushing quarterback. So I think
[8:58] Speaker 2: that this is going to be great for him because
[9:01] Speaker 2: people look at this offense as such a negative for
[9:03] Speaker 2: Kyler Murray. I think Kevin O'Connell's the best coach he's
[9:05] Speaker 2: ever had. I think Justin Jefferson's the best wide receiver
[9:08] Speaker 2: he's ever had. He's had other good wide receivers, you know,
[9:10] Speaker 2: like when D-Hop was there. Wide receiver talent wasn't really
[9:13] Speaker 2: the big issue. But I just think that there's so
[9:16] Speaker 2: much there... to actually believe in. And in my opinion,
[9:20] Speaker 2: there's too many people thinking, oh, he hasn't done it,
[9:24] Speaker 2: so he won't be good at it. I actually think
[9:26] Speaker 2: this is going to be the best thing for Kyler
[9:29] Speaker 2: Murray in his career. And I think he's going to
[9:31] Speaker 2: have a career year in a lot of ways.
[9:32] Speaker 1: Dude, this guy's f * * * ing unbelievable. I'm
[9:36] Speaker 1: going to put you on the spot. Their first three
[9:38] Speaker 1: games this year, hosting Green Bay at Chicago at Tampa.
[9:43] Speaker 1: What's more likely? 0-3 or 3-0?
[9:46] Speaker 2: I think what's more likely is 3-0.
[9:47] Speaker 1: I would say so too.
[9:49] Speaker 2: I don't think they go 3-0, but to your question,
[9:51] Speaker 2: I think it's more likely they go 3-0 than they
[9:54] Speaker 2: go 0-3.
[9:54] Speaker 1: Yeah. They won more games last year than the Panthers did.
[9:57] Speaker 1: Panthers won a division. Now, again, not a super high
[10:01] Speaker 1: bar to clear, but like the third or fourth place
[10:06] Speaker 1: team in a division won more than a division winner
[10:09] Speaker 1: in the South. It's just, the NFC is crazy, man.
[10:13] Speaker 2: They are.
[10:13] Speaker 1: They are. All right. Who's next?
[10:15] Speaker 2: Who's in a new place that you're looking forward to seeing?
[10:18] Speaker 1: I'm really looking forward to seeing what Mike McDaniel and
[10:20] Speaker 1: Amari and Hampton do together. After watching Amari and Hampton
[10:24] Speaker 1: last year, it's honestly kind of the inverse of what
[10:26] Speaker 1: we talked about with the Chiefs. The Chargers average yards
[10:29] Speaker 1: before contact per attempt was abysmal. Their average yards after
[10:32] Speaker 1: contact per attempt was awesome. A lot of that was
[10:35] Speaker 1: because of Amari and Hampton. If you're looking at running
[10:38] Speaker 1: backs with at least 50 carries last year, Hampton was
[10:41] Speaker 1: tied for third in missed tackle force percentage at 30.6%,
[10:44] Speaker 1: which is a crazy high number for that large of
[10:49] Speaker 1: a sample size and if you look at carries like
[10:52] Speaker 1: say the one that he had against the Raiders right
[10:55] Speaker 1: this was a couple plays before they got a 60
[10:57] Speaker 1: yard touchdown it was a third down they had three
[11:00] Speaker 1: shots at him to at least try to trip him
[11:03] Speaker 1: up which you know you look at Kareem Hunt's tape
[11:05] Speaker 1: he probably will get tripped up on these but Martin
[11:07] Speaker 1: Hampton was able to stay on his feet from not
[11:09] Speaker 1: one not two but three guys eventually the fourth guy
[11:12] Speaker 1: got him that was an explosive gain on third down
[11:14] Speaker 1: and They scored two plays later. The rookie shows his power.
[11:19] Speaker 1: They were not a very good team as far as
[11:22] Speaker 1: blocking for him last year, but he still made something
[11:25] Speaker 1: out of nothing so much that I have to imagine
[11:28] Speaker 1: if their offensive line is remotely healthy this year. They've
[11:32] Speaker 1: already lost a guy, so it's the Chargers. Bear with me.
[11:36] Speaker 1: If they are remotely healthy, like maybe Slaughter is that
[11:39] Speaker 1: guy at center. Go Gators. Just had to slip it
[11:42] Speaker 1: in there. I have to imagine he's getting 1,300-plus rushing,
[11:47] Speaker 1: maybe add a couple hundred receiving on top of there,
[11:49] Speaker 1: and he's going to be the most productive running back
[11:52] Speaker 1: the Chargers have had since Ryan Matthews?
[11:55] Speaker 2: When Ryan Matthews went to the Chargers, I was like,
[11:57] Speaker 2: this is just the passing of the torch with LaDainian Thomas.
[12:01] Speaker 2: And I was like, here we go, baby, another decade.
[12:04] Speaker 2: And I know injuries obviously, unfortunately, slowed up Ryan Matthews.
[12:08] Speaker 1: But I agree with you. I love this call.
[12:10] Speaker 2: I love McDaniel as the— run game orchestrator, because I
[12:14] Speaker 2: think that they're going to get to the outside a lot,
[12:16] Speaker 2: go straight into what you were talking about, honestly, with
[12:19] Speaker 2: Jake Slater being a zone blocking guy. And anytime that
[12:22] Speaker 2: you get Omari and Hampton to the outside and you
[12:24] Speaker 2: get him one-on-one, man, he is too big a lot
[12:26] Speaker 2: of times for corners to bring down and he is
[12:28] Speaker 2: too fast and he is too quick for linebackers to
[12:30] Speaker 2: bring down sometimes too. I think he's in for a major,
[12:33] Speaker 2: major year in.
[12:34] Speaker 1: Mike McDaniel's offense. I agree. All right, bring us home.
[12:36] Speaker 1: Who you got?
[12:37] Speaker 2: I'm going to take the people on a little journey here,
[12:39] Speaker 2: all right? Because earlier this offseason, the Miami Dolphins traded
[12:44] Speaker 2: Jalen Waddell to the Denver Broncos, right? For a first-round pick,
[12:47] Speaker 2: high price, high price. I think it's absolutely going to
[12:49] Speaker 2: be worth it. When you look at the Broncos, since
[12:51] Speaker 2: Sean Payton has got there, they've spread the ball out
[12:53] Speaker 2: a ton. You know, guys, you have a target share
[12:55] Speaker 2: in the low 20s, and it's just, it's a lot
[12:57] Speaker 2: of different options. for places where any of the quarterbacks,
[13:00] Speaker 2: Bo Nix, obviously, the latest one, to be able to
[13:02] Speaker 2: throw the football. And some people look at that and
[13:05] Speaker 2: they go, oh, okay, this is just this era of
[13:06] Speaker 2: Sean Payton.
[13:07] Speaker 1: I don't think it is. I think Sean Payton wants.
[13:10] Speaker 2: To go back to what he had with Alvin Kamara
[13:13] Speaker 2: and Michael Thomas when those guys were averaging above 30%
[13:16] Speaker 2: of a target share. And when I look at Jalen Waddell,
[13:19] Speaker 2: I think that Waddell is going to be top 10
[13:21] Speaker 2: in targets this season for any position, running back, tight end,
[13:24] Speaker 2: wide receiver. I think that that trade is going to
[13:26] Speaker 2: look so well worth it. Because I think that the
[13:29] Speaker 2: way that Peyton wants to get him involved is reminiscent
[13:33] Speaker 2: not just of great wide receivers he's had in the past.
[13:35] Speaker 2: I think he's thinking about Alvin Kamara and the usage
[13:38] Speaker 2: out of the backfield as well. When you look at
[13:40] Speaker 2: the last two years, the Broncos are second in the
[13:42] Speaker 2: NFL in wide receivers that have played snaps in the backfield.
[13:47] Speaker 2: And I got some plays to sort of highlight what
[13:49] Speaker 2: I'm talking about here. So this clip here is from 2019.
[13:52] Speaker 2: We're going to start with 2019. We're going to start
[13:54] Speaker 2: with Alvin Kamara. and the way that Sean Payton sort
[13:58] Speaker 2: of used him. And the whole time I want you
[14:00] Speaker 2: guys to think about this route combination, I want you
[14:02] Speaker 2: to think about using Jalen Waddell out of the backfield.
[14:05] Speaker 2: Think about his speed, okay? Let's start here by looking
[14:08] Speaker 2: at Alvin Kamara. So first off, Kamara is lined up
[14:11] Speaker 2: on the outside when they break the huddle. He is
[14:14] Speaker 2: motioning back to the backfield, and he's going to stand
[14:17] Speaker 2: next to Drew Brees. So right off the bat, we
[14:19] Speaker 2: sort of have an easy connection to Waddell being an
[14:21] Speaker 2: outside wide receiver and then motioning him into the backfield.
[14:25] Speaker 2: So we're going to look at two route concepts that
[14:27] Speaker 2: are very similar here. The first one here in 2019
[14:30] Speaker 2: is this slant flat concept. And what it's going to
[14:35] Speaker 2: do is it's going to take advantage of zone coverage.
[14:38] Speaker 2: So you have these defenders right here that he's these
[14:40] Speaker 2: deep zone coverage defenders. And then you're going to have
[14:43] Speaker 2: this defender come here.
[14:44] Speaker 1: There's a zone. And this defender is going to occupy
[14:46] Speaker 1: this zone.
[14:47] Speaker 2: You're going to notice that the slant flat combination is
[14:52] Speaker 2: going to carry this defender to the middle of the
[14:54] Speaker 2: field and it's going to freeze this zone defender, which
[14:56] Speaker 2: is going to open up all this space right here
[14:59] Speaker 2: for Kamara to operate under. So if we let this
[15:02] Speaker 2: play out, you see the slant, the flat, look at
[15:05] Speaker 2: all that space. Now again, think about this route here,
[15:08] Speaker 2: but it's Jalen Waddell speed. If Kamara is the prioritized player,
[15:13] Speaker 2: look at all this space. that he has to work with. Again,
[15:17] Speaker 2: you get the ball in his hands. If he's the
[15:18] Speaker 2: primary read, I think this goes for a touchdown, but
[15:21] Speaker 2: that's not enough. I want to go a little bit
[15:23] Speaker 2: deeper into the bag here. This is something that Sean
[15:27] Speaker 2: Payton has been doing for a long, long time, getting
[15:29] Speaker 2: speed out of the backfield. I'm going to take you
[15:31] Speaker 2: all the way back to 2006.
[15:33] Speaker 1: This is the.
[15:37] Speaker 2: The New Orleans Saints and the Chicago Bears. So this
[15:40] Speaker 2: is instead of a slant and then a flat route here,
[15:45] Speaker 2: it's a slant and a wheel route. Now this is
[15:49] Speaker 2: going to be against man coverage.
[15:51] Speaker 1: Okay.
[15:51] Speaker 2: Let's let this play out so we can see a
[15:52] Speaker 2: little bit clearer. You see that this is a single
[15:55] Speaker 2: high safety. Everybody else is in man coverage here.
[15:57] Speaker 1: Okay.
[15:58] Speaker 2: They're in man coverage, basically everywhere across the board. And
[16:02] Speaker 2: this is going to create this slant route. It's going
[16:04] Speaker 2: to create this natural pick For this defender to, you know,
[16:10] Speaker 2: he's not going to be able to keep up with
[16:11] Speaker 2: Reggie Bush anyways, but Reggie Bush is just going to
[16:13] Speaker 2: have this little bit of separation and then his speed
[16:17] Speaker 2: does the rest.
[16:19] Speaker 1: So we see how this plays out here. That is
[16:22] Speaker 1: exactly what happens.
[16:23] Speaker 2: Again, I say, think about this play with Jalen Waddell's speed.
[16:39] Speaker 2: I think that Sean Payton views Jalen Waddell as that
[16:44] Speaker 2: type of player, as an Alvin Kamara type of a player,
[16:47] Speaker 2: as a Reggie Bush type of an athlete. And remember
[16:49] Speaker 2: when he was talking about that Joker position a couple
[16:52] Speaker 2: of years ago, right? And he never got that player
[16:54] Speaker 2: that we all felt like was perfect there. Well, Now
[16:57] Speaker 2: he's got that player. Now he has that Joker position
[17:00] Speaker 2: type of player.
[17:00] Speaker 1: You want to hear a wild Sean Payton Broncos connection
[17:05] Speaker 1: that also kind of loops in San Diego. So Reggie Bush,
[17:07] Speaker 1: San Diego kid, right? So Sean Payton, after he was
[17:12] Speaker 1: done playing, spent 87 with the bears a year or
[17:15] Speaker 1: two later, he's at San Diego state starting his coaching
[17:18] Speaker 1: career from that staff. He learns about the slot option route,
[17:23] Speaker 1: which is like a brand new thing back in football
[17:26] Speaker 1: back in the day. Uh, That staff was in the
[17:28] Speaker 1: Dennis Erickson tree. That route concept was in the Dennis
[17:32] Speaker 1: Erickson offense. Dennis Erickson got that offense from Jack Elway.
[17:37] Speaker 1: who got it from his son's high school team at
[17:40] Speaker 1: Granada Hills in LA. So bring it all around 40
[17:44] Speaker 1: years later. If I ever play you in NFL Jeopardy,
[17:47] Speaker 1: I am screwed. I might as well just give you
[17:50] Speaker 1: the charity money up front. I'll cut you the check
[17:53] Speaker 1: beforehand and we could just not waste everybody's time for
[17:56] Speaker 1: the episode.
[17:57] Speaker 2: What a pull that was. But yes, that is how
[18:00] Speaker 2: I see Jalen Waddell being used. And if you guys
[18:03] Speaker 2: see these exact plays and concepts at some point this season,
[18:08] Speaker 2: You just remember where you heard it first here on
[18:09] Speaker 2: the NFL Pro Channel.
[18:10] Speaker 1: I'm just saying. You better come back. That happens.
[18:14] Speaker 2: Everyone who watches this video. You owe us a subscription.
[18:19] Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about some teams that are poised
[18:26] Speaker 2: to make the leap. We're going to talk about some
[18:29] Speaker 2: teams that didn't make the playoffs last year that are
[18:31] Speaker 2: going to this year. But of course, if you're adding
[18:33] Speaker 2: teams to the playoffs, you get to subtract teams from
[18:34] Speaker 2: the playoffs too. So Brett, talk to me about the
[18:36] Speaker 2: first team that you see making the playoffs this year
[18:38] Speaker 2: and why.
[18:40] Speaker 1: Speaking of Sean Payton connections, I want to talk about
[18:42] Speaker 1: the Cowboys. Their defense was bad last year. About 30
[18:45] Speaker 1: points per game is what they allowed. First of all,
[18:47] Speaker 1: I think they're going to be a top 12 scoring
[18:49] Speaker 1: defense this year. If they were even average last year,
[18:54] Speaker 1: if they were 16th, 16th was about 23 points per game.
[18:57] Speaker 1: So literally a touchdown less per game. If they held
[19:00] Speaker 1: every team they played against last year to 23 points,
[19:03] Speaker 1: they would have gone 12 and 5. That's how bad
[19:06] Speaker 1: their defense was. They would have pushed for a one seed,
[19:08] Speaker 1: or at least gotten close. When I look at this team,
[19:12] Speaker 1: the offense we know is going to be sick for
[19:15] Speaker 1: all the reasons everybody talks about. Dak, Seedy, Pickens, Givante
[19:19] Speaker 1: had a resurgent year. It's a good offense. If the
[19:22] Speaker 1: defense can just execute better specifically on second down this year,
[19:28] Speaker 1: almost by default, they're going to be an average defense.
[19:31] Speaker 1: Walk with me here on this. After they got Quinn
[19:34] Speaker 1: and Williams in the post-Quinn and Williams world. They went
[19:37] Speaker 1: from 32nd in rushing success rate allowed, they were literally
[19:41] Speaker 1: dead last in the NFL, all the way up to 14th,
[19:43] Speaker 1: became an above average run defense as far as success
[19:46] Speaker 1: rate allowed, just from Quinn and existing, right? massive jump
[19:51] Speaker 1: so they were a good first down defense the issue
[19:53] Speaker 1: was they got teams into a lot of second and
[19:56] Speaker 1: longs and then completely crumbled they were third worst in
[20:00] Speaker 1: the NFL in offensive success rate allowed in second and
[20:04] Speaker 1: long DC's love being in second and long if you're
[20:06] Speaker 1: in second to medium second and short Okay, now it's
[20:09] Speaker 1: kind of ambiguous as far as run pass rates go.
[20:11] Speaker 1: If you're in second and long, most teams are going
[20:15] Speaker 1: to treat that as a passing down, which then favors
[20:18] Speaker 1: the defense. The Cowboys, I mean, still, they had the
[20:20] Speaker 1: ninth highest pass rate, at least called pass rate, against
[20:23] Speaker 1: them on second and long. They knew teams were going
[20:25] Speaker 1: to throw against them. They couldn't stop it. Not because
[20:28] Speaker 1: the pass rush was bad. The pass rush was actually
[20:30] Speaker 1: pretty decent. But 63.6% of all of these passes against
[20:35] Speaker 1: them on second and long were quick throws, under two
[20:37] Speaker 1: and a half seconds. They couldn't cover anybody. But I
[20:41] Speaker 1: don't necessarily think it was the players' fault. I mean,
[20:43] Speaker 1: you're a draft guy. I'm a draft guy. We graded
[20:46] Speaker 1: all these guys coming out. We like Revel, right? Bland,
[20:50] Speaker 1: a couple years ago, had a tremendous year. I don't
[20:53] Speaker 1: think the players just got bad. But if you're looking
[20:56] Speaker 1: at how they were used in the Iberflux system... Cooper
[20:59] Speaker 1: Dejean from week 11 on had more press snaps than
[21:04] Speaker 1: either of the giant Cowboys corners. They were not letting
[21:07] Speaker 1: them do what they do best. They would play a
[21:09] Speaker 1: bunch of man, but they would make them play man
[21:11] Speaker 1: in space and then wonder why the ball was getting
[21:13] Speaker 1: out in two and a half seconds. Nobody could stop anything.
[21:15] Speaker 1: So the pass rush had no shot of effect in
[21:18] Speaker 1: the game because the ball was out. The DBs were
[21:20] Speaker 1: not being played to their ideal skill set. Now you've
[21:24] Speaker 1: got Christian Parker coming in. What does he like to do?
[21:26] Speaker 1: A lot of match zone coverages, which means we're really
[21:29] Speaker 1: playing man coverage but with zone coverage principles. A lot
[21:31] Speaker 1: more opportunities to get up on the line of scrimmage
[21:33] Speaker 1: and press receivers and just not concede space. I still
[21:37] Speaker 1: think they're going to be a good run defense because
[21:39] Speaker 1: of Quinnen and Barham and Overshawn and obviously Caleb Downs.
[21:43] Speaker 1: But now they're actually going to have their stuff together
[21:46] Speaker 1: on second and long and get to more third and
[21:49] Speaker 1: long opportunities. This team I think was like conservatively bottom
[21:53] Speaker 1: 10 in terms of third down plays run against them
[21:57] Speaker 1: in the back half of last year because teams didn't
[22:00] Speaker 1: get to third down. They just converted on second down.
[22:02] Speaker 1: If you win second down here, it's going to be
[22:05] Speaker 1: a good defense. And if they're a good defense with
[22:07] Speaker 1: that offense, they could be like the two seed in
[22:10] Speaker 1: the NFC. I agree.
[22:12] Speaker 2: I mean, this is a team that I also picked
[22:15] Speaker 2: to make the playoffs. I think Christian Parker is going
[22:17] Speaker 2: to utilize his defense and their skill set in a
[22:19] Speaker 2: lot better ways. They're going to play a lot more
[22:22] Speaker 2: sort of zone because he's a Fangio guy so he's
[22:25] Speaker 2: going to want to stay in that too high world
[22:26] Speaker 2: but they'll play like zone matching where okay like a
[22:30] Speaker 2: lot of zone is going on but then the guys
[22:32] Speaker 2: on the outside a lot of times are going to
[22:34] Speaker 2: be afforded to play man like their skill set actually
[22:37] Speaker 2: says they should you got a better front you got
[22:40] Speaker 2: Barham and and overshown at the linebacker level like I'm
[22:44] Speaker 2: super excited.
[22:45] Speaker 1: One love on me one love on three one two three.
[22:48] Speaker 2: So the Cincinnati Bengals are the team that I think
[22:50] Speaker 2: makes the playoffs one of the teams that I think
[22:52] Speaker 2: is poised to make the leap back to the playoffs
[22:53] Speaker 2: this year. And the reason why, yeah, we can sit
[22:55] Speaker 2: here and we can say like, Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase,
[22:59] Speaker 2: Tee Higgins, like we can talk about the offense. Brett,
[23:01] Speaker 2: we need to talk about both sides of the trenches.
[23:03] Speaker 2: And one side of the trench is obvious, right? When
[23:05] Speaker 2: you make a big splash for Dexter Lawrence, it's going
[23:08] Speaker 2: to be better for this team. I know they don't
[23:10] Speaker 2: want to trade Hendrickson anymore, but it's going to be better.
[23:13] Speaker 2: They were so bad in the middle of that defensive
[23:14] Speaker 2: front last year. his presence alone is going to be
[23:17] Speaker 2: huge from a pass rush perspective, from a run stopping perspective,
[23:21] Speaker 2: and from just a planetary perspective of what his gravitational
[23:26] Speaker 2: pull and everything does to both his side of the
[23:28] Speaker 2: trenches and the other side of the trenches. But I
[23:30] Speaker 2: want to kind of focus on the offensive line a
[23:31] Speaker 2: little bit here because I don't think enough people realize
[23:34] Speaker 2: that the Bengals offensive line is not what it used
[23:37] Speaker 2: to be. And I say that in the best way.
[23:39] Speaker 2: When you look at this team, they're starting five offensive
[23:42] Speaker 2: linemen last year, only one of them had a quarterback
[23:45] Speaker 2: pressure percentage above 7%, and it was Amarius Mims, who
[23:49] Speaker 2: I think Mims is going to have a much better
[23:52] Speaker 2: year this year anyways.
[23:53] Speaker 1: Now, what is.
[23:54] Speaker 2: 7% pressure rate mean? Well, guys like Darnell Wright, Peter Skowronski,
[24:00] Speaker 2: Chris Lindstrom, Mike McGlinchey, those guys all had pressure percentages
[24:05] Speaker 2: above 7%.
[24:06] Speaker 1: So four out of the five spots.
[24:09] Speaker 2: On the Bengals offensive line had below a 7% pressure rate.
[24:13] Speaker 2: And then again, the only one that didn't was Mims,
[24:15] Speaker 2: who I think is going to take a leap this
[24:17] Speaker 2: year anyways, because.
[24:18] Speaker 1: They're as athletic and just size....
[24:22] Speaker 2: That I think is naturally going to happen with him
[24:25] Speaker 2: if he is fully healthy. It's kind of what we
[24:26] Speaker 2: thought of him coming out of Georgia. And I think
[24:28] Speaker 2: that's really manifesting right now. So give me the Bengals, man.
[24:31] Speaker 2: Give me the Bengals to get back to the playoffs.
[24:34] Speaker 2: But I think win that division. And I think this
[24:36] Speaker 2: is an AFC championship team. And I wouldn't be surprised
[24:39] Speaker 2: to see the Bengals making it back to the Super
[24:41] Speaker 2: Bowl as well. I think this is a Super Bowl
[24:43] Speaker 2: ceiling type of a team.
[24:44] Speaker 1: So first of all, I agree. I think they win
[24:46] Speaker 1: the division. But I also think the Ravens make the
[24:48] Speaker 1: playoffs as well. I think two teams go to the
[24:50] Speaker 1: playoffs from the AFC North. So I'm going to have
[24:52] Speaker 1: the Ravens as my other making the leap team, and
[24:54] Speaker 1: here's why. Ravens fans know this well. This team was
[24:59] Speaker 1: really bad from a macro perspective over the last few years.
[25:03] Speaker 1: I thought they were pretty good in that run in 2023.
[25:05] Speaker 1: Then they got to the AFC Championship game and just
[25:08] Speaker 1: kind of lost their minds a little bit. And then
[25:10] Speaker 1: since then, they've really been bad in the macro game, right?
[25:13] Speaker 1: When am I kicking a field goal versus going for it?
[25:15] Speaker 1: When am I punting versus going for it? When am
[25:18] Speaker 1: I really leaning on Derrick Henry? When am I leaning
[25:21] Speaker 1: on Lamar Jackson? It just felt like a lot of
[25:24] Speaker 1: their micro play calls never made sense in the macro.
[25:27] Speaker 1: And so you bring in Jesse Minner, you bring in,
[25:29] Speaker 1: in particular, Declan Doyle, who comes from this Ben Johnson
[25:33] Speaker 1: offensive school of the micro is in service of the macro.
[25:37] Speaker 1: And I think it's just going to look very different.
[25:39] Speaker 1: I think concepts will be similar. I think techniques will
[25:43] Speaker 1: be similar as far as the offensive line. I still
[25:45] Speaker 1: think it's going to be a bunch of wide zone,
[25:46] Speaker 1: which the Ravens have done. But I think it's all
[25:49] Speaker 1: going to be in service of a more coherent macro.
[25:52] Speaker 1: And I want people to walk with me here on this.
[25:55] Speaker 1: Everything the Bears did was knowing in their back pocket
[25:59] Speaker 1: they were really good in third and short. 72% conversion
[26:03] Speaker 1: rate on third and short. They were one of the
[26:04] Speaker 1: three best teams in the NFL at it. So that
[26:06] Speaker 1: was always in their back pocket. So to them, first
[26:10] Speaker 1: down was a great opportunity to throw the ball because
[26:14] Speaker 1: really as long as they could get to third and short,
[26:16] Speaker 1: they were golden. They had the fifth highest pass rate
[26:19] Speaker 1: on first down. Their play calls on second down really
[26:21] Speaker 1: depended on whether or not that ball was complete on
[26:24] Speaker 1: first down. Typically, like a normal yards per attempt on
[26:28] Speaker 1: first down is going to be, what, seven, seven and
[26:29] Speaker 1: a half? If that's complete, you're in second and short already.
[26:34] Speaker 1: Once they got to second and short, they were hyper-aggressive.
[26:38] Speaker 1: This was a stat that I got from Ryan Paganetti.
[26:40] Speaker 1: Great stats guy. Worth a follow. Always tweets really interesting stuff.
[26:43] Speaker 1: Among 68 play callers with 70-plus games... calling plays since 1999.
[26:48] Speaker 1: Johnson ranks first in second and short aggression rate as
[26:52] Speaker 1: far as throwing the ball down the field. No current
[26:54] Speaker 1: projected 2026 play caller is even within 17 percentage points
[26:59] Speaker 1: of him on second and one. They throw the ball
[27:01] Speaker 1: on second and short.
[27:03] Speaker 2: Why?
[27:03] Speaker 1: Because if it's incomplete, who cares? We're good on third
[27:05] Speaker 1: and short. We're already set up for that. So what
[27:09] Speaker 1: if the ball's incomplete on that first down pass and
[27:11] Speaker 1: they're in second and long? You would think that's where
[27:15] Speaker 1: you throw it again. They don't. They run the ball.
[27:17] Speaker 1: They actually had the second highest run rate on second
[27:19] Speaker 1: and long because they were just trying to get to
[27:21] Speaker 1: third and manageable. They were a really good team on
[27:23] Speaker 1: third and manageable. What's interesting about that is when they
[27:26] Speaker 1: would run the ball to get to third and manageable,
[27:29] Speaker 1: where they were on the field determined what they did next. Again,
[27:32] Speaker 1: micro in service of the macro. Once they crossed the 50,
[27:36] Speaker 1: they treated third and long like it's another rundown. They
[27:39] Speaker 1: would run the ball a lot on third and long
[27:41] Speaker 1: because they're like, well, we're already across the 50. we're
[27:44] Speaker 1: playing with two downs here. So they would turn third
[27:46] Speaker 1: down essentially into second down once they were in opponent territory.
[27:50] Speaker 1: If they were in their own territory, they would throw more.
[27:52] Speaker 1: And again, they were really good at it. And so
[27:55] Speaker 1: you see this pattern of our run pass rates, our
[27:58] Speaker 1: personnel groupings, our formations, everything is kind of keeping that
[28:03] Speaker 1: third down in the back of their mind because their
[28:06] Speaker 1: whole philosophy is let's just keep getting first downs. If
[28:10] Speaker 1: we string enough first downs together, we're going to score.
[28:13] Speaker 1: And we know that Ben Johnson wants to be the
[28:15] Speaker 1: highest scoring offense of all time. I think we're going
[28:17] Speaker 1: to see, A, the Bears do this a lot again
[28:19] Speaker 1: this year. But I also think we're going to see
[28:21] Speaker 1: the Ravens do it a lot. I think their play
[28:22] Speaker 1: calling is going to make sense from a macro perspective,
[28:26] Speaker 1: which for the first time in years is something I
[28:29] Speaker 1: could say about Baltimore. You can't coach that. You can't
[28:32] Speaker 1: teach that. You can't stop that.
[28:35] Speaker 2: It's this like no surrender sort of like philosophy when
[28:39] Speaker 2: it comes to we have four downs to get the
[28:41] Speaker 2: first down. We don't have three and then a punt.
[28:44] Speaker 2: We have four downs to get the first down. We
[28:47] Speaker 2: see teams around the league being really aggressive with that,
[28:49] Speaker 2: but obviously Ben Johnson's philosophy over the last couple of
[28:52] Speaker 2: years goes into that, which sort of leads right into
[28:55] Speaker 2: my point for my last team that I think makes
[28:57] Speaker 2: the playoffs this year, and that's the Lions. I think
[28:59] Speaker 2: the Lions are back in the playoffs this year. I
[29:01] Speaker 2: think they're winning the division. In the toughest division in football,
[29:04] Speaker 2: I think that they actually come out on top because
[29:06] Speaker 2: when you look at this team last year, still an
[29:08] Speaker 2: okay year from them, especially given the fact that Man,
[29:11] Speaker 2: they had so many injuries. They lost both of their coordinators.
[29:14] Speaker 2: I think that they're back on track this upcoming season,
[29:16] Speaker 2: specifically from an efficiency standpoint on those key downs that
[29:20] Speaker 2: you mentioned, third and fourth down. Now, this team still
[29:24] Speaker 2: scored a lot of points last year. They still racked
[29:26] Speaker 2: up a ton of yards, but the big difference, I think,
[29:29] Speaker 2: with the Lions last year was they just weren't nearly
[29:33] Speaker 2: as efficient on third and fourth down. When they had
[29:34] Speaker 2: Ben Johnson there, Ben Johnson was a whiz at setting
[29:37] Speaker 2: third down up to be manageable, getting it ready for
[29:40] Speaker 2: fourth down if that was the best case for them
[29:42] Speaker 2: there and then converting on that fourth down they just
[29:45] Speaker 2: were not the same without Ben Johnson and I think
[29:48] Speaker 2: that they're going to be much more cohesive and much
[29:50] Speaker 2: more confident when it comes those money downs I certainly
[29:52] Speaker 2: hope that this team isn't nearly as hurt on the
[29:54] Speaker 2: defensive side of the ball as they were last season
[29:57] Speaker 2: and And if those things are true, I think that
[30:00] Speaker 2: they do have the right coaching staff. I still think
[30:02] Speaker 2: they do have the right players, and I think they're
[30:04] Speaker 2: going to once again light up the scoreboard. But beyond that,
[30:07] Speaker 2: control the football more than they were able to last year.
[30:12] Speaker 2: So give me the Lions to win what is the
[30:14] Speaker 2: toughest division in the NFL. Teams that missed the playoffs.
[30:22] Speaker 2: Because if we're adding teams, we've got to subtract teams.
[30:24] Speaker 2: So really quick, who are your two teams to miss
[30:27] Speaker 2: the playoffs since you talked about two teams to now
[30:30] Speaker 2: make the.
[30:30] Speaker 1: Playoffs this year? Well, we've talked positively about the entire
[30:33] Speaker 1: NFC North except for the Packers, which is unfortunate, right?
[30:37] Speaker 1: Because they're a good team. They really are. They had
[30:39] Speaker 1: some tough decisions to make in the offseason because they
[30:42] Speaker 1: were up against it cap-wise. They had to spend their
[30:44] Speaker 1: money wisely, and so they lost a couple quality players.
[30:46] Speaker 1: It's just, it's tough to project teams how successful this
[30:50] Speaker 1: run game is going to be when there's been so
[30:53] Speaker 1: much upheaval up front for the last couple of years,
[30:56] Speaker 1: not to mention, okay, Tucker craft is going to be
[30:59] Speaker 1: back for week one. We think, is he going to
[31:02] Speaker 1: look like Tucker craft, right? If you're looking at the
[31:04] Speaker 1: on off splits for this offense, they are a, a
[31:06] Speaker 1: substantively different team offensively when Tucker Kraft is on the field.
[31:11] Speaker 1: If he looks like himself, okay, great. We're cooking with gas.
[31:14] Speaker 1: But I have even deeper worries about the defense because
[31:17] Speaker 1: as dramatic as the splits are for Tucker Kraft, they
[31:20] Speaker 1: are way more dramatic for Micah when he's on and
[31:22] Speaker 1: off the field and he's not going to be there
[31:24] Speaker 1: week one. Like their quick pressure rate damn near doubles.
[31:28] Speaker 1: when he's on the field. They have other players we like.
[31:31] Speaker 1: Edren Cooper's great. Xavier McKinney's great. You can't function without
[31:34] Speaker 1: Micah Parsons there, and he's not going to be there.
[31:36] Speaker 1: I worry they're going to have a hole that's too
[31:39] Speaker 1: deep to dig out of.
[31:40] Speaker 2: Who's the other team? Because you got one more.
[31:42] Speaker 1: What's the other one? I mean, it's the same pick
[31:44] Speaker 1: that everybody else has, the Steelers. And there are parts
[31:47] Speaker 1: of the Steelers that I like a lot, right? Young,
[31:49] Speaker 1: talented offensive line. I think the run game's going to
[31:51] Speaker 1: be fine. I think the defense has pieces I really like.
[31:54] Speaker 1: But there is no universe where you can keep making
[31:57] Speaker 1: the playoffs in a tough AFC where you have the
[32:00] Speaker 1: Bengals and the Ravens, who I think are going to
[32:02] Speaker 1: be better this year. You can't make the playoffs in
[32:04] Speaker 1: that division, in my opinion, when your average completion traveled
[32:10] Speaker 1: 3.4 yards past the line of scrimmage. That's basically a
[32:13] Speaker 1: below average run as far as air yards per completion.
[32:17] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[32:18] Speaker 1: If they're not an explosive passing game, it would take
[32:20] Speaker 1: like a generational yards after catch year by DK Metcalf
[32:24] Speaker 1: to be a great explosive pass game. Holy mackerel. Wow.
[32:28] Speaker 1: And he somehow caught it. That is an amazing play.
[32:31] Speaker 2: It's going to look a lot different though. You know,
[32:33] Speaker 2: like they're just there. I still think they're going to
[32:36] Speaker 2: get the running backs involved in the passing game a
[32:38] Speaker 2: lot because this team either led the NFL or was
[32:40] Speaker 2: second in the NFL in targets to running backs last year.
[32:43] Speaker 2: which is why the average depth of target is so
[32:44] Speaker 2: low because Aaron Rodgers didn't want to get hit. So
[32:47] Speaker 2: he's just like, here you go, Jalen. You know, here
[32:48] Speaker 2: you go, Kenneth.
[32:49] Speaker 1: Hope you don't die.
[32:50] Speaker 2: Dumping off every single time. But I think it's going
[32:53] Speaker 2: to look a little bit better from an average depth
[32:56] Speaker 2: of target standpoint.
[32:56] Speaker 1: But I do agree with you.
[32:58] Speaker 2: I think just the fact that the Ravens and the Bengals,
[33:00] Speaker 2: in my opinion, are going to be that much better.
[33:02] Speaker 1: I think it's going to leave the Steelers out. So
[33:04] Speaker 1: I took the obvious ones. What about yours? Who do
[33:07] Speaker 1: you have missing the playoffs?
[33:08] Speaker 2: I have the Niners sort of barely missing the playoffs
[33:11] Speaker 2: this year. Um, A lot of new, still some injuries
[33:14] Speaker 2: that they're working through. McCaffrey coming off just such a
[33:17] Speaker 2: high usage year for him last year. You know, Brandon
[33:20] Speaker 2: Ayuk obviously not being a part of this.
[33:22] Speaker 1: Ricky Pearsall not being a part of this.
[33:24] Speaker 2: A lot of people are super excited about Deshaun Tribbling,
[33:26] Speaker 2: and you should be. I had him as a top
[33:28] Speaker 2: 60 player as well, but man, that's a lot to
[33:30] Speaker 2: ask of a rookie to basically carry your passing attack.
[33:32] Speaker 2: I know they got Mike Evans as well, but we'll
[33:34] Speaker 2: see what he is like in a new spot. I
[33:37] Speaker 2: just feel like there's just too many uncertainties, I feel,
[33:41] Speaker 2: with the Niners. to be in a division with the
[33:44] Speaker 2: Seahawks and the Rams, and to also specifically be in
[33:47] Speaker 2: a conference where we already talked about how we think
[33:50] Speaker 2: the Cowboys are going to be a lot better. We
[33:52] Speaker 2: already talked about how basically everybody in the NFC North
[33:54] Speaker 2: could make the playoffs. I think they're going to just
[33:57] Speaker 2: miss it this year. And then my other team is Carolina.
[34:00] Speaker 2: I just don't think that Carolina is going to repeat
[34:02] Speaker 2: as division champs. It is a wide open NFC South,
[34:05] Speaker 2: but I like the Bucks and the Saints more than
[34:07] Speaker 2: I like Carolina to repeat. Again, I have question marks
[34:10] Speaker 2: in the trenches. Getting Jalen Phillips is huge for them.
[34:13] Speaker 2: He has to be huge this season.
[34:15] Speaker 1: But you're down.
[34:16] Speaker 2: What was your schedule starting two offensive tackles? Can Monroe
[34:19] Speaker 2: Freeling really step up the way that he needs to?
[34:22] Speaker 2: I mean, if they end up making the playoffs, I
[34:23] Speaker 2: think Monroe Freeling, we're going to look back and we're
[34:25] Speaker 2: going to be like, what a hell of a pick
[34:26] Speaker 2: that was because he's going to have to have an
[34:28] Speaker 2: incredible year for them. But they're still figuring things out
[34:31] Speaker 2: in the vertical passing game. Their run game hasn't looked
[34:34] Speaker 2: great this preseason. Is it going to be able to
[34:35] Speaker 2: start right out of the gate and play well? So,
[34:38] Speaker 2: Just too much up and down for me for the
[34:41] Speaker 2: Panthers to repeat, so I think the Panthers are out.
[34:43] Speaker 1: They were a team that very much relied on low
[34:46] Speaker 1: possession counts to win games last year. The more possessions
[34:49] Speaker 1: are in a game, you would think that it means
[34:51] Speaker 1: that the more talented teams, or rather just the more
[34:54] Speaker 1: cohesive teams, as they get more possessions to pull away
[34:57] Speaker 1: from you, they're going to pull away from you. The
[34:59] Speaker 1: Panthers didn't want that to happen, so their average offensive
[35:02] Speaker 1: and defensive possessions was like 9.5 last year. Right. In
[35:07] Speaker 1: a sport where there's only so many points you can
[35:09] Speaker 1: score per possession, the Panthers limited your ability to score
[35:12] Speaker 1: a lot of points to pull away. And so they
[35:13] Speaker 1: would drag you down in the mud and beat you
[35:15] Speaker 1: with experience.
[35:16] Speaker 2: Right.
[35:16] Speaker 1: This year, I'm not sure they're going to be able
[35:19] Speaker 1: to do that again. I think they're going to have
[35:20] Speaker 1: to like actually go toe to toe in these games
[35:23] Speaker 1: where you have 11, 12 possessions and you have to
[35:25] Speaker 1: score at the same rate as the other team. We'll
[35:27] Speaker 1: see if they can do it. But I'm in agreement.
[35:29] Speaker 1: I think the Bucs win the division. Hey, what a day.
[35:32] Speaker 1: What an opportunity. I'm grateful for y'all, man. For real.
[35:34] Speaker 1: All right, we have a little quick segment in the
[35:36] Speaker 1: middle of the show, and I want you guys at
[35:38] Speaker 1: home to also play along with this. Pause the video
[35:40] Speaker 1: where you need to because we're going to play Statter Cap.
[35:43] Speaker 1: It's essentially like two truths and a lie, right? I'm
[35:45] Speaker 1: going to present three stats that Trevor has not seen.
[35:49] Speaker 1: He's going to tell me which one is the lie,
[35:51] Speaker 1: and I want you guys to tell me in the
[35:53] Speaker 1: comments if you also got it correct. I have these
[35:56] Speaker 1: stats in front of me. I was actually very surprised
[35:58] Speaker 1: at the answer, so I'm not sure if you're going
[36:00] Speaker 1: to get it. Oh, okay. All right. All right.
[36:02] Speaker 2: I said that I wouldn't beat you in Jeopardy, but
[36:05] Speaker 2: I think I can get you in a one question
[36:08] Speaker 2: versus one question, two truths and a lie. So let's
[36:11] Speaker 2: do this. Let's lock in.
[36:12] Speaker 1: I'm locked in here. All right. Your three stats. The
[36:15] Speaker 1: Bengals led the league in called pass rate last year.
[36:18] Speaker 1: Six quarterbacks threw for 1,000 plus yards just from under center.
[36:23] Speaker 1: And the 2025 season had the highest rate of two
[36:27] Speaker 1: tight end sets. What's the lie? I think the first
[36:31] Speaker 1: one's a lie.
[36:32] Speaker 2: And I'll kind of like talk through it as people
[36:34] Speaker 2: are sort of thinking about their answer as well. We
[36:37] Speaker 2: talked a little bit when we answer some of your
[36:39] Speaker 2: Q & A questions in our initial episode here on
[36:41] Speaker 2: the channel. We talked about sort of the rise of
[36:43] Speaker 2: 12 personnel and how I mentioned 12 teams last year.
[36:48] Speaker 2: had 100 play action snaps from under center so i
[36:52] Speaker 2: think that when a lot of times when you're doing
[36:54] Speaker 2: that that leans into heavier personnel so i don't think
[36:57] Speaker 2: it's the tight end one and when i think about
[36:59] Speaker 2: the bangles specifically chase brown had a uh i believe
[37:03] Speaker 2: this is uh from the metric system here a crap
[37:05] Speaker 2: ton of carries and touches so they actually involved chase
[37:09] Speaker 2: brown a lot last year not a fully healthy burrow
[37:12] Speaker 2: season so i'm gonna say that a is the lie.
[37:17] Speaker 1: So you're correct Let's go! For bonus points that aren't real,
[37:22] Speaker 1: which team did lead the league in cold pass rate?
[37:25] Speaker 1: It's going to seem so obvious when you hear it.
[37:28] Speaker 2: First thought was Lions, but they have Gibbs, so I
[37:32] Speaker 2: don't think that that's the case.
[37:34] Speaker 1: I don't think they would have put that much on
[37:35] Speaker 1: Caleb's plate. Was it the Cowboys? No, you're going to
[37:40] Speaker 1: kick yourself when you hear it. The Cardinals. Oh, yeah,
[37:44] Speaker 1: of course it is. Come on. 50 times a game.
[37:48] Speaker 2: Gosh, I should have known that.
[37:51] Speaker 1: I should have known that. This is yours.
[37:58] Speaker 2: By the way, shout out to the fine folks over
[38:01] Speaker 2: at NGS for getting us these stats. The database that
[38:05] Speaker 2: they have and the researchers that we have over at
[38:07] Speaker 2: NFL Media, insane. I cannot wait to take advantage of
[38:11] Speaker 2: their knowledge and expertise of the platform all season long.
[38:14] Speaker 1: All right, here we go. These are the three statements.
[38:17] Speaker 2: Will Anderson recorded the most pressures in the league in 2025.
[38:21] Speaker 2: Miles Garrett has recorded the quickest get-off time in each
[38:25] Speaker 2: of the last four seasons, minimum of 250 snaps. And
[38:29] Speaker 2: Patrick Queen missed more tackles than any other defender in
[38:34] Speaker 2: a season in the NGS era last year.
[38:37] Speaker 1: What do we think it is? Ooh. Man, that's tough.
[38:41] Speaker 1: I think number three is, yeah, I'll go number three
[38:44] Speaker 1: is a lie. I think Patrick Queen ideally had a
[38:47] Speaker 1: better tackle rate than that. I hope he did. He
[38:51] Speaker 1: did not.
[38:52] Speaker 2: Oh, no.
[38:53] Speaker 1: He did not. Hold on. Let me look up Patrick
[38:56] Speaker 1: Queen's salary right now. More than us, brother. More than us.
[39:02] Speaker 1: The lie was actually A.
[39:06] Speaker 2: Will Anderson did not record the most pressures in the
[39:09] Speaker 2: league last season. Aiden Hutchinson led the NFL with 90
[39:15] Speaker 2: pressures last year.
[39:18] Speaker 1: I think one of the craziest Aiden Hutchinson stats I've
[39:20] Speaker 1: ever seen was, so when he broke his leg a
[39:22] Speaker 1: couple years ago, I think it was like week 11
[39:25] Speaker 1: or week 12. He broke it in like week six.
[39:27] Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure it took another six weeks for some
[39:30] Speaker 1: to pass him in pressures that year yes.
[39:32] Speaker 2: Yes absurd so you know why i know that specifically
[39:36] Speaker 2: because in that god mode aiden hutchinson like six games
[39:41] Speaker 2: whatever it was the bucks they played the bucks it
[39:44] Speaker 2: like in that span The Bucs were down, I think,
[39:48] Speaker 2: both of their starting offensive tackles, if not one of them.
[39:52] Speaker 2: And Aiden Hutchinson ate him alive. Hutchinson had like double-digit pressures.
[39:59] Speaker 1: I don't know. Don't quote me on that one.
[40:00] Speaker 2: But he had like double-digit pressures in one game against
[40:02] Speaker 2: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where Mayfield was running for his life.
[40:06] Speaker 1: So I do remember that. Aiden Hutchinson got in there
[40:09] Speaker 1: and nailed him. All right, I want to hit on
[40:11] Speaker 1: a trend here. Unfortunately, it's one that Trevor might not
[40:15] Speaker 1: like because we're holding a little funeral for the air
[40:17] Speaker 1: raid offense. Which I know, your favorite thing. May it rest.
[40:24] Speaker 1: But I will say, if you're looking at what NFL
[40:27] Speaker 1: teams are telling us with their moves this offseason, really
[40:31] Speaker 1: the last couple offseasons, the air raid is... and I
[40:36] Speaker 1: want to say dead, it's not doing well in the NFL.
[40:40] Speaker 1: You have about 20% of the starting quarterbacks in the
[40:43] Speaker 1: league that have some kind of connection to, you know,
[40:47] Speaker 1: the Cliff Kingsbury, Lincoln Riley, even like the old BYU
[40:51] Speaker 1: air raid connection there.
[40:52] Speaker 2: What's the, what's the pop culture game? It's like eight
[40:54] Speaker 2: separations of Kevin Bacon or something like that.
[40:56] Speaker 1: Like the bacon number to 80 BYU. All you need
[41:00] Speaker 1: is three to get to Cliff Kingsbury. It feels like
[41:02] Speaker 1: over the last five years. All right. So Vikings, they
[41:05] Speaker 1: got Kyler. That's a Cliff and Lincoln Riley guy, I believe.
[41:09] Speaker 1: You have the Bears. Caleb was also a Cliff and
[41:11] Speaker 1: a Lincoln Riley guy. They switched a year ago to
[41:14] Speaker 1: being more like under center pilled. But Jaden, Cliff guy
[41:17] Speaker 1: with the commanders. You bring in David Blau, probably going
[41:20] Speaker 1: to be more under center, more quote unquote traditional looking.
[41:22] Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, you know, not a Cliff guy, but you
[41:25] Speaker 1: could have fooled me with how the Bengals have played
[41:26] Speaker 1: offense since he got in the league. It's a lot
[41:28] Speaker 1: of shotgun, a lot of spread, a lot of 989.
[41:30] Speaker 1: You know, Jamar's down there somewhere. Jalen Hurts, Lincoln Riley guy,
[41:34] Speaker 1: and so Cliff by association. Buccaneers, Baker was a Lincoln
[41:39] Speaker 1: and a Cliff guy at various points in college, I believe.
[41:42] Speaker 1: The Browns kind of converted him to being more under
[41:45] Speaker 1: center centric when he was early in his career, which
[41:48] Speaker 1: was good for him. But again, he kind of came
[41:50] Speaker 1: out of that shotgun air raid world. And then you
[41:54] Speaker 1: got the Chiefs with Andy Reid, who again, like he
[41:57] Speaker 1: was there when the deep magic was written. He was
[41:58] Speaker 1: a player at BYU in the 80s when they started
[42:01] Speaker 1: this whole thing. And so that was honestly what I
[42:04] Speaker 1: should have seen coming because I wasn't, I was famously
[42:07] Speaker 1: like not a huge Patrick Mahomes guy in his draft
[42:10] Speaker 1: class because we had never seen an air raid quarterback
[42:12] Speaker 1: work in the NFL. And then of course he went
[42:14] Speaker 1: to the coach that knows the air raid better than anybody.
[42:17] Speaker 1: And it's like, okay, of course it worked there. But
[42:20] Speaker 1: even Mahomes over the last few years, more under center,
[42:23] Speaker 1: more quote unquote traditional looking like they're kind of getting
[42:26] Speaker 1: away from it as well. And so there's such a
[42:28] Speaker 1: huge swath of these quarterbacks that, They're not going to
[42:32] Speaker 1: be in gun as much. It's not just going to
[42:34] Speaker 1: be inside zone all day. Less RPOs, less screen, more
[42:37] Speaker 1: under center, more play action. We're all kind of going
[42:41] Speaker 1: back to 2000s football.
[42:43] Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think the reason why, you know, if
[42:45] Speaker 2: we're talking about like how we get to this point,
[42:49] Speaker 2: it's because one, college football, right? Bill Parcells says the
[42:52] Speaker 2: NFL can only take what the college game is giving them, right?
[42:54] Speaker 2: There's some obvious changes that the pro game will bring
[42:57] Speaker 2: just because the elevated strength size changes.
[43:00] Speaker 1: And athleticism.
[43:01] Speaker 2: But if college is trending towards a certain way, a
[43:04] Speaker 2: lot of times the pros are going to try to
[43:05] Speaker 2: take advantage of those concepts and skill sets and things
[43:08] Speaker 2: like that. So when you look at college, you look
[43:10] Speaker 2: at these teams that were just lighting up the scoreboard
[43:12] Speaker 2: in the 2010s. And then Patrick Mahomes, there were a
[43:14] Speaker 2: lot of people that thought it wasn't going to work
[43:15] Speaker 2: with Patrick Mahomes, but he gets to the league and
[43:18] Speaker 2: they spread things out and he just shreds these single
[43:21] Speaker 2: high defenses. Anybody that was playing cover one, cover three,
[43:24] Speaker 2: there was all this space at the seam and they
[43:26] Speaker 2: were just punishing these defenses for it.
[43:28] Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill's wide open! The Chiefs go 73 yards in
[43:32] Speaker 1: one play.
[43:33] Speaker 2: When you look back in 2017 in the NFL, Teams
[43:36] Speaker 2: were running 11 personnel, 58.7% of the time. Then a
[43:39] Speaker 2: couple of years later, about five years later, it goes
[43:40] Speaker 2: all the way up to 61.4. But last year, it's
[43:44] Speaker 2: all the way down to 56.3. Now, if you look
[43:46] Speaker 2: at heavier personnel, so not the spread, not the air raid, heavier,
[43:50] Speaker 2: more condensed personnel. In 2017, it was only 26.9%. And
[43:55] Speaker 2: last year was 33.2. It's been going up every single year.
[43:58] Speaker 2: Now I got another stat that, you know, I think
[44:00] Speaker 2: really contextualizes this even more because next gen stats can
[44:02] Speaker 2: do this. If you measure from the widest wide receiver
[44:06] Speaker 2: on one side of the field to the other, there
[44:08] Speaker 2: was a 26.3 average width from wide receiver to wide
[44:12] Speaker 2: receiver back in 2017. Last year, it was an entire
[44:15] Speaker 2: four yards closer and it was at 22.9. It's been
[44:19] Speaker 2: going down every single season. So to go back to
[44:22] Speaker 2: what you said, is the air raid dead? I don't
[44:24] Speaker 2: know if it's dead, but it certainly ain't turning in
[44:27] Speaker 2: the right direction.
[44:28] Speaker 1: You kind of brought it up there with the cover three,
[44:30] Speaker 1: cover one thing, and how the Chiefs were absolutely demolishing
[44:33] Speaker 1: people that were in single high safety structures in Mahomes'
[44:36] Speaker 1: first couple years as starters. A big reason for that
[44:39] Speaker 1: is because you have Tyreek Hill, and you put Tyreek
[44:41] Speaker 1: Hill as the number three when you're going into a
[44:43] Speaker 1: trips look, and you can run a deep cross with
[44:46] Speaker 1: a receiver that runs 4-2, and there's nobody that can
[44:49] Speaker 1: keep up with him. And so when teams were in
[44:51] Speaker 1: cover three, that throw was just available to them all
[44:54] Speaker 1: the time. It really wasn't until the AFC Championship game
[44:58] Speaker 1: against the Patriots, specifically in the second half of that
[45:00] Speaker 1: game where Belichick kind of adjusted. They started playing literally
[45:04] Speaker 1: a coverage that they call one cross. Some coaches call
[45:06] Speaker 1: it one lurk, whatever you want to call it, where
[45:08] Speaker 1: you're putting a zone defender. It's man coverage, it's single high,
[45:11] Speaker 1: but you're putting a zone defender in that intermediate middle
[45:15] Speaker 1: in order to stop those crossing routes, right? And that's
[45:18] Speaker 1: the misconception that I think a lot of people have
[45:20] Speaker 1: is when you're dropping a safety down in the box
[45:22] Speaker 1: and you're opening yourself up to be vulnerable against the pass,
[45:26] Speaker 1: It's not because you're throwing go routes down the boundary.
[45:28] Speaker 1: It's not because you're throwing a deep post. Cover three
[45:31] Speaker 1: is going to stop both of those throws more often
[45:33] Speaker 1: than not. It's those crossing routes. That's what kills people.
[45:37] Speaker 1: That's the air raid identity is those crossing routes. And
[45:41] Speaker 1: so when you see the rise of a too high
[45:43] Speaker 1: safety look, the teams that are trying to stop crossing
[45:46] Speaker 1: routes are playing quarters to stop those crossing routes. Because
[45:49] Speaker 1: if they play cover one or they play cover three,
[45:52] Speaker 1: you're going to get absolutely torched. I want to bring
[45:55] Speaker 1: up this touchdown by Kyle Williams to illustrate this, right?
[45:58] Speaker 1: This is the nightmare fuel that makes people want to
[46:01] Speaker 1: play quarters. If you have these two crossing routes and
[46:04] Speaker 1: you only have one high safety, that safety has to
[46:07] Speaker 1: choose which one he's going to cut, right? That's what
[46:10] Speaker 1: coaches call it. You're cutting the crosser because you have
[46:12] Speaker 1: a depth and leverage advantage to handle this crossing route
[46:15] Speaker 1: a lot better than the corner does who's covering it.
[46:18] Speaker 1: You only have one available safety to do that. And
[46:21] Speaker 1: typically he's going to cut the crosser that's deeper because
[46:23] Speaker 1: And so when you have Kyle Williams one-on-one here with
[46:26] Speaker 1: a route that is designed to break man coverage, a
[46:29] Speaker 1: crossing route, and there's nobody there with a leverage advantage
[46:32] Speaker 1: to cut it because you only have one high safety,
[46:35] Speaker 1: then all Drake May has to do is wait for
[46:37] Speaker 1: him to clear a linebacker, get to that last window.
[46:40] Speaker 1: It's a much higher completion percentage throw than a go
[46:43] Speaker 1: ball down the boundary where you're hoping for 50-50. This
[46:47] Speaker 1: is a much easier one to complete, and there's nobody there.
[46:50] Speaker 1: If you complete it, there's literally nothing that can stop
[46:53] Speaker 1: him from scoring. That was how the Chiefs absolutely destroyed everybody.
[46:57] Speaker 1: It was with these crossing routes, because they had Tyreek Hill,
[47:00] Speaker 1: and you didn't have anybody that could cover Tyreek Hill.
[47:03] Speaker 1: That's why you now see teams play a lot of
[47:05] Speaker 1: quarters against teams that love crossing routes. You look at
[47:08] Speaker 1: this PBU by Julian Love here. Seattle loves quarters. Why?
[47:12] Speaker 1: Because if you're in a three-by-one look, you do a
[47:15] Speaker 1: late-motion look, You're switching the two and the three to
[47:17] Speaker 1: the field side. You have the new three. He's running
[47:20] Speaker 1: a shallow. You have the new two. He's running across.
[47:23] Speaker 1: You have the safety that can play over the top
[47:25] Speaker 1: of number one, but you still have another safety that's
[47:28] Speaker 1: available to cut the crosser. He has a leverage advantage.
[47:31] Speaker 1: He has a depth advantage. You're not going to get
[47:33] Speaker 1: absolutely killed here. Like when you have these leverage advantages
[47:37] Speaker 1: with multiple safeties, it takes away the bread and butter
[47:40] Speaker 1: of the air raid, which is these crossing routes. It's
[47:42] Speaker 1: not about the deep post. It's not about the go ball.
[47:45] Speaker 1: It's not even about screens and RPOs. It's can we
[47:48] Speaker 1: stop the deep crossing route? You're going to sacrifice a
[47:51] Speaker 1: little bit as a run defense if you're playing quarters,
[47:54] Speaker 1: unless you have a unicorn type of defensive tackle, like
[47:57] Speaker 1: Byron Murphy, which we talked about last show. But you
[48:01] Speaker 1: still have to do it, or else you're going to
[48:03] Speaker 1: give up explosive plays in the pass game. That's why
[48:05] Speaker 1: they want to force you into cover three, is to
[48:08] Speaker 1: open up those crossing routes. EPA per pass damn near doubles.
[48:13] Speaker 1: If you're looking at single high safety structures versus two
[48:16] Speaker 1: high safety structures, as in you will get a much
[48:20] Speaker 1: higher EPA per pass if you can force teams into
[48:23] Speaker 1: playing single high safety. That's why we're seeing more tight
[48:26] Speaker 1: ends on the field. We're seeing more condensed formations on
[48:28] Speaker 1: the field because they know defenses will play more cover
[48:32] Speaker 1: three against those looks. It's not that they want to.
[48:36] Speaker 1: It's because they have to. because they have to stop
[48:39] Speaker 1: the run first. That's rule number one. And if you
[48:42] Speaker 1: can force them into cover three, you're going to get
[48:44] Speaker 1: explosive plays in the pass game. Not from go balls,
[48:47] Speaker 1: from crossing routes. That is the sport right now.
[49:03] Speaker 2: Let's move on to some season awards, because we've got
[49:05] Speaker 2: to hit the season awards. We got to hit MVP,
[49:07] Speaker 2: Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year.
[49:09] Speaker 2: But we're going to have two different picks here. We're
[49:11] Speaker 2: going to have, okay, this is what your head says.
[49:14] Speaker 2: And it might be a little bit more of the
[49:15] Speaker 2: obvious pick. But then a pick from the gut, a
[49:17] Speaker 2: pick from the heart. Whichever Oregon or Boston. part you
[49:20] Speaker 2: want to say is a little bit off the beaten
[49:23] Speaker 2: path here.
[49:24] Speaker 1: So give me your MVP.
[49:27] Speaker 2: Let's knock these out because I want to get through
[49:28] Speaker 2: as many as possible, but MVP, obvious one, non-obvious one,
[49:31] Speaker 2: what do you got?
[49:32] Speaker 1: I think the obvious one to me is Lamar because
[49:34] Speaker 1: it seems like every time he gets a new play caller,
[49:36] Speaker 1: he wins MVP, so we're going off history here. But
[49:38] Speaker 1: also all the reasons we talked about with Declan Doyle,
[49:41] Speaker 1: I think the offense is just going to make sense.
[49:43] Speaker 1: And I think they're going to score a lot of points.
[49:44] Speaker 1: I think they're going to win a lot of games.
[49:46] Speaker 1: You know, obviously Jesse Minner, I didn't even talk about him.
[49:49] Speaker 1: Like he's going to get that defense, right? Fun fact,
[49:52] Speaker 1: if I recall correctly, the Ravens defense allowed more points
[49:54] Speaker 1: in the first five weeks last year than they did
[49:56] Speaker 1: the entire rest of the season combined. And that's the
[49:58] Speaker 1: reason they missed the playoffs. So as long as they're
[50:01] Speaker 1: not like historically the worst defensive all time in the
[50:04] Speaker 1: first month, they'll be okay. They'll probably make the playoffs.
[50:07] Speaker 1: And then my non-obvious MVP is going to be Jameer Gibbs.
[50:10] Speaker 1: How's this for a bold prediction.
[50:12] Speaker 2: By the way?
[50:13] Speaker 1: I think it's possible he has the greatest running back
[50:16] Speaker 1: season in Lions history this year. Which, by the way,
[50:19] Speaker 1: Barry Sanders played for the Lions.
[50:21] Speaker 2: I was about, wait, I just went through, I just
[50:23] Speaker 2: went through the entire circle of emotions right there because
[50:26] Speaker 2: I thought you were going to say of all time.
[50:27] Speaker 2: And I was thinking in my head, like some unbelievable
[50:30] Speaker 2: running back seasons, like LaDainian Tomlinson seasons, the first one
[50:32] Speaker 2: that came to my mind. It's like, okay, he didn't
[50:34] Speaker 2: say better than LT. And then I went, wait a second,
[50:36] Speaker 2: Barry Sanders played for the ball.
[50:38] Speaker 1: I mean, I think he has he has a legit
[50:41] Speaker 1: shot to get like twenty three, twenty four hundred yards
[50:44] Speaker 1: from scrimmage. And we've seen how many touchdowns he can score.
[50:47] Speaker 1: Even if you go back to like Barry's best year
[50:49] Speaker 1: yardage wise, Jameer's already had, I think, two seasons where
[50:53] Speaker 1: he had more touchdowns than that Barry Sanders. Yeah.
[50:56] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[50:56] Speaker 1: So you add in a metric ton of yards with
[50:59] Speaker 1: an improved offensive line and all those touchdowns. he could
[51:03] Speaker 1: legitimately win MVP.
[51:05] Speaker 2: I think it'd be fun if a running back won MVP,
[51:07] Speaker 2: but it is a quarterback award, so I'm going to
[51:09] Speaker 2: go quarterbacks with my two picks. With my head or
[51:12] Speaker 2: the obvious pick here, if I think the Bengals are
[51:14] Speaker 2: going to win the division, if I think the Bengals
[51:16] Speaker 2: are going to get to the AFC Championship game, it
[51:18] Speaker 2: means that Joe Burrow is fully healthy and it means
[51:20] Speaker 2: that offense is firing on all cylinders. So I'll go
[51:22] Speaker 2: with Joe Burrow as the MVP there. You just know
[51:24] Speaker 2: that they can light up a scoreboard and a stat
[51:26] Speaker 2: sheet when he is healthy. So I'll go Joe Burrow
[51:28] Speaker 2: as the obvious one. And then the not obvious one,
[51:32] Speaker 2: I don't know, maybe this isn't out there enough, but
[51:34] Speaker 2: I'll go Dak Prescott. We talked very highly of the
[51:37] Speaker 2: Cowboys here on the show.
[51:38] Speaker 1: Let's go.
[51:39] Speaker 2: And what we think they can be. We've highlighted the defense.
[51:42] Speaker 2: We highlighted the defense last show as well. But man,
[51:46] Speaker 2: I love what Brian Schottenheimer did with this unit last year.
[51:49] Speaker 2: And I think that Dak is at this point underrated.
[51:52] Speaker 2: It feels like people just go like, yeah, yeah, Dak Prescott, whatever.
[51:54] Speaker 2: And I just think that he is a an awesome quarterback,
[51:57] Speaker 2: an efficient quarterback, and he's got a lot of passing
[52:00] Speaker 2: weapons to throw the ball to. So I'll go Dak
[52:01] Speaker 2: Prescott there. Offensive player of the year.
[52:04] Speaker 1: Who you got? Who are your two? Matthew Stafford, I think,
[52:06] Speaker 1: is the obvious choice. I think the Rams are going
[52:08] Speaker 1: to be sensational this year. They're everybody's favorite pick for
[52:11] Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. I think he's going to be, as
[52:13] Speaker 1: long as he's healthy, I think he's going to be
[52:15] Speaker 1: tremendously productive again. Him and Devontae in the red zone,
[52:18] Speaker 1: I think, are going to get a bunch of touchdowns again.
[52:21] Speaker 1: As far as my non-obvious choice, And maybe to some
[52:24] Speaker 1: people it is obvious, but looking at the metrics last year,
[52:28] Speaker 1: it shouldn't be. Caleb Williams, if we just get a
[52:31] Speaker 1: little bit more accurate on the normal run of the mill, first,
[52:35] Speaker 1: second down, get me some completions type of throws, if
[52:38] Speaker 1: he's just 10% better on those. He's one of the
[52:41] Speaker 1: most productive quarterbacks in the NFL. Wait, 10?
[52:44] Speaker 2: 10?
[52:44] Speaker 1: Maybe five? Brett, that's a lot. That's a lot.
[52:46] Speaker 2: Hold on here.
[52:46] Speaker 1: Give me the like 65% on like the layups. Okay,
[52:48] Speaker 1: that's fine. We can set the bar at 65. Jumping 10%
[52:51] Speaker 1: in accuracy. Okay, how about this? I don't know if
[52:52] Speaker 1: anybody's done that. The fully formed like caleb williams is
[53:02] Speaker 1: jared goff with the layups but still caleb williams with of.
[53:06] Speaker 2: Course yeah that that player that player wins offensive player
[53:09] Speaker 2: of the year and that player might win mvp honestly.
[53:11] Speaker 1: Yeah i think he can get there i i.
[53:13] Speaker 2: Really do my uh i'll go with again if joe
[53:16] Speaker 2: burrow is going to win mvp i think jamar chase
[53:18] Speaker 2: probably win an offensive player of the year right jamar's
[53:20] Speaker 2: gonna have a monster year so that's a little bit
[53:22] Speaker 2: chalk but i'm going with the bangles combination there with
[53:25] Speaker 2: how good jamar and uh joe burrow are together but
[53:27] Speaker 2: My non-obvious one, I'm going to go Brock Bowers.
[53:29] Speaker 1: I'm going to go Brock Bowers here.
[53:30] Speaker 2: I think Kubiak is going to utilize Brock Bowers a
[53:33] Speaker 2: ton in that offense. I think he's going to be
[53:34] Speaker 2: a security blanket, best friend, whatever cliche you want to
[53:37] Speaker 2: say for Fernando Mendoza when he eventually becomes a starting
[53:40] Speaker 2: quarterback there.
[53:41] Speaker 1: So I'm in on Brock Bowers.
[53:43] Speaker 2: I'll go real quick with defensive player of the year
[53:46] Speaker 2: before you hit yours as well. I'll go Will Anderson
[53:48] Speaker 2: sort of as the obvious one with defensive player of
[53:50] Speaker 2: the year. And then my non-obvious one, let's go more Cowboys.
[53:53] Speaker 1: I'll go Quinton Williams. And I'm only going Quinton.
[53:55] Speaker 2: Williams because of What you said last week about how
[53:59] Speaker 2: important that defensive tackle is to a Christian Parker defense,
[54:04] Speaker 2: I think Christian Parker is going to sit Quinn and
[54:06] Speaker 2: Williams down, just look him in the eye and be like,
[54:09] Speaker 2: we will go as far as you could take us
[54:11] Speaker 2: this season. And I'm going to put you in the
[54:13] Speaker 2: best position to succeed, and it's going to be up
[54:15] Speaker 2: to you to execute. And I think Quinn is going
[54:16] Speaker 2: to be motivated. I think he's going to stuff the
[54:18] Speaker 2: stat sheet, and I think he could be a Defensive
[54:20] Speaker 2: Player of the Year candidate.
[54:21] Speaker 1: What about you? What do you got? I mean, if
[54:22] Speaker 1: you want a little cross-promotion here, if people go over
[54:24] Speaker 1: to the NFL channel and they watch the video of
[54:26] Speaker 1: Will Anderson and Miles Garrett working out, watch Miles Garrett
[54:29] Speaker 1: do that box jump and then tell me he's not
[54:31] Speaker 1: winning it again this year.
[54:32] Speaker 2: You mean box fly because it's what it looked like
[54:34] Speaker 2: he was doing, just floating.
[54:36] Speaker 1: In the air? It looked fake. Like straight up, it
[54:38] Speaker 1: looked like CGI. It was unbelievable. You never know what
[54:41] Speaker 1: you believe. Maybe it is. No, I'm just kidding. Aliens
[54:44] Speaker 1: are among us.
[54:45] Speaker 2: If Miles Garrett came around for the first time in 2026,
[54:49] Speaker 2: we'd all claim he's AI.
[54:51] Speaker 1: Yes, actually. The non-obvious one, speaking of aliens, Jeffrey Simmons.
[54:57] Speaker 1: I think he is tremendous. I think he's the best
[54:59] Speaker 1: interior defensive lineman in football right now. He outproduced, I
[55:03] Speaker 1: think it was five entire interior defensive line groups by
[55:08] Speaker 1: himself last year. You look at Jeff Simmons versus the Niners,
[55:12] Speaker 1: and he lapped them. That's how good he is. I
[55:16] Speaker 1: think he could definitely win it.
[55:17] Speaker 2: Coming on in the last couple of seconds, we've got
[55:19] Speaker 2: on the show here for the season preview. Obviously, we'll
[55:21] Speaker 2: continue to talk ball throughout the entire season with you guys.
[55:23] Speaker 2: But secret superstar, secret glue guys, whatever you want.
[55:27] Speaker 1: To call it.
[55:27] Speaker 2: These guys that not a lot of people are talking about,
[55:30] Speaker 2: but a lot hangs on their shoulders. Or they're bringing
[55:33] Speaker 2: everything together, however you want to say it. We got
[55:35] Speaker 2: two each. Brett, who is your first secret glue guy
[55:39] Speaker 2: here in the NFL?
[55:41] Speaker 1: Kamari Lasseter. is a psychopath. He's a dog. Like he's,
[55:46] Speaker 1: he's unbelievable. You watch him last year. It's fourth and
[55:49] Speaker 1: one against Buffalo, Reggie Gilliam, everybody's favorite fullback, Reggie Gilliam.
[55:52] Speaker 1: He plays at like two 60 and Kamari Lassiter took
[55:57] Speaker 1: him on shoulder to chest and bent him backwards. And
[56:01] Speaker 1: that set up a TFL on fourth and one in
[56:03] Speaker 1: a crew. Like that's a corner. taking on a 260-pound
[56:07] Speaker 1: fullback and winning. He's unbelievable. Got seven picks in his
[56:12] Speaker 1: first two seasons. Roughly the same missed tackle rate as
[56:15] Speaker 1: Devin Witherspoon. Everybody loves Devin Witherspoon as a run defender.
[56:18] Speaker 1: He just got paid for it. And you should. He
[56:21] Speaker 1: had 62 solo tackles last year while Spoon had 48,
[56:25] Speaker 1: and they had roughly the same missed tackle rate. He
[56:28] Speaker 1: absolutely abuses receivers in the run game, abuses tight ends,
[56:32] Speaker 1: takes on fullbacks. It takes on pulling linemen. I don't
[56:35] Speaker 1: know if there's a tougher corner in football right now,
[56:38] Speaker 1: and that's a high bar.
[56:39] Speaker 2: I love Lassiter, and let's just stick a corner for mine.
[56:43] Speaker 2: It's Jacob Parrish for the Buccaneers. If Jacob Parrish is
[56:46] Speaker 2: bad for this team, it's not going to be great, Brett.
[56:49] Speaker 1: It's not going to be pretty.
[56:50] Speaker 2: My mood's not going to be very good when we
[56:52] Speaker 2: record the show after the Sunday games.
[56:54] Speaker 1: That's all I'm saying. It's not going to be great.
[56:56] Speaker 1: Rondé walking through that door, bud. Rondé walking through that door.
[56:59] Speaker 2: They need somebody to step up at cornerback big time.
[57:01] Speaker 1: And Parrish was great for them last year.
[57:03] Speaker 2: He had a league high eight pressures when he was
[57:05] Speaker 2: lined as a cornerback. So we know that Todd Bowles
[57:07] Speaker 2: is going to utilize him everywhere. But the fact of
[57:09] Speaker 2: the matter is he was super versatile for them last year.
[57:12] Speaker 2: He was one of five defenders who played more than
[57:14] Speaker 2: 100 snaps at linebacker, outside corner and slot corner. They
[57:17] Speaker 2: love being able to move him everywhere, especially because They've
[57:20] Speaker 2: put Antoine Winfield Jr. specifically back at safety so they're
[57:23] Speaker 2: not rotating him down in the slot. Jacob Parrish did
[57:26] Speaker 2: a lot of that for them last year, but this year,
[57:28] Speaker 2: he basically has to play as an outside corner.
[57:30] Speaker 1: He has to.
[57:32] Speaker 2: And somebody has to step up outside on the other side.
[57:35] Speaker 2: Benjamin Morrison, Zion McCollum, one of the guys who are
[57:40] Speaker 2: big-time standouts throughout the preseason. Somebody's got to play well
[57:44] Speaker 2: opposite Jacob Parrish, and that is just by saying Jacob
[57:46] Speaker 2: Parrish has to be the glue guy because without him,
[57:50] Speaker 2: I think the entire secondary in Tampa Bay might fail.
[57:54] Speaker 1: So he is my first one there. Who is your
[57:56] Speaker 1: second one? Jacoby Myers. the other side of the ball.
[57:59] Speaker 1: Talk about glue guys. You look at the difference between
[58:01] Speaker 1: the Jaguars offense, pre and post Jacoby Myers. It's nice.
[58:04] Speaker 1: He's been a glue guy his whole career. His whole career.
[58:06] Speaker 1: He's been a glue guy. He might be the best
[58:08] Speaker 1: glue guy at the receiver position in the NFL. Like
[58:11] Speaker 1: as far as his, I mean the glueiest receiver in
[58:15] Speaker 1: the NFL. That might be the dumbest thing I've ever said.
[58:17] Speaker 1: I mean, it's true though. And it wasn't even just
[58:21] Speaker 1: like the emergence of Parker Washington. It was the emergence
[58:23] Speaker 1: of both of them together. Even in the run game,
[58:27] Speaker 1: there was a play against Denver. I'll throw it up
[58:29] Speaker 1: on screen. The fact that they combined on these combo
[58:32] Speaker 1: blocks to seal the edge, Jacoby got a two-for-one on
[58:35] Speaker 1: this play, sets up an explosive run. It's that kind
[58:38] Speaker 1: of stuff, the dirty work kind of stuff, that he
[58:40] Speaker 1: really brought to this offense that helped power them in
[58:43] Speaker 1: the back half of the year to having a really
[58:45] Speaker 1: successful run there and winning the AFC South. But even
[58:49] Speaker 1: if you're just looking at overall EPA per play before
[58:52] Speaker 1: and after Jacoby, Success rate before and after Jacoby. Explosive
[58:56] Speaker 1: play rate before and after Jacoby. Like, the contested catch
[58:59] Speaker 1: rate down the field between him and Parker combined. Like,
[59:02] Speaker 1: they would not have functioned without him because, unfortunately, BTJ
[59:07] Speaker 1: hasn't turned into what we hoped he could yet. we'll
[59:10] Speaker 1: see this year and then Travis got hurt like they
[59:13] Speaker 1: needed him to be the guy and he was.
[59:16] Speaker 2: Yeah I I I've been such a big fan of
[59:18] Speaker 2: his obviously with with the Raiders as well and um
[59:22] Speaker 2: I do I think he's the glueiest he's he's one
[59:23] Speaker 2: of the glueiest guys and and one of the glueiest
[59:25] Speaker 2: guys along the offensive line dude how good was the
[59:29] Speaker 2: Indianapolis Colts offensive line. Specifically, you know, at the beginning
[59:32] Speaker 2: of the season, first half of the season, when things
[59:34] Speaker 2: were really rolling. And I don't think that Tanner Bortolini,
[59:37] Speaker 2: their center, gets enough credit. Let's pull up the Telestrator
[59:41] Speaker 2: once again. Let's break a couple of plays down here
[59:44] Speaker 2: for you guys. So, first and foremost, Tanner Bortolini, who
[59:47] Speaker 2: has played so well over the last calendar year, he's
[59:50] Speaker 2: a fantastic athlete. 80th and 90th percentile in so many
[59:54] Speaker 2: of the athletic tests that we saw from him.
[59:56] Speaker 1: Had to combine it.
[59:56] Speaker 2: The point of the running game, right, is to get
[59:58] Speaker 2: the ball in the hands of the running back and
[59:59] Speaker 2: for him to get upfield. But it's not always about
[1:00:02] Speaker 2: just getting all the offensive linemen downhill. Like, smash-mouth football,
[1:00:06] Speaker 2: it's great, we love it, hell yeah, but sometimes you
[1:00:08] Speaker 2: need to be a little bit more creative. Sometimes you
[1:00:10] Speaker 2: need to be a little bit more horizontal in order
[1:00:14] Speaker 2: to get vertical in the run game. And that's exactly
[1:00:17] Speaker 2: what Tanner Bortolini does as an athletic center.
[1:00:20] Speaker 1: You'll see him here.
[1:00:21] Speaker 2: He's going to snap the football and fire off the
[1:00:23] Speaker 2: ball and just drive the this defensive lineman all the
[1:00:28] Speaker 2: way to this part of the field, and you'll see
[1:00:29] Speaker 2: the running back go right behind him. That's because of
[1:00:31] Speaker 2: that leg drive. That's because of the athleticism, playing with
[1:00:34] Speaker 2: great pad level. It really is fantastic to see. So
[1:00:37] Speaker 2: any type of zone running game where you're really trying
[1:00:40] Speaker 2: to get horizontal before you get vertical, you see that
[1:00:43] Speaker 2: just clearing the way for the running back to be
[1:00:46] Speaker 2: able to get a ton of yards on that play.
[1:00:48] Speaker 1: You absolutely love to see it.
[1:00:50] Speaker 2: So here's another example where he's kind of doing The
[1:00:53] Speaker 2: same thing on this next play. Now, this next play
[1:00:55] Speaker 2: is a little bit different because it's going to involve
[1:00:57] Speaker 2: some combo blocks here. You've got a little bit of
[1:00:59] Speaker 2: a combo block here before this offensive lineman climbs to
[1:01:02] Speaker 2: the second level. It's the same thing here. Tanner Bortolini's
[1:01:05] Speaker 2: got to hold on to this block before the right
[1:01:09] Speaker 2: guard next to him is able to really get his
[1:01:11] Speaker 2: shoulder pads in. in between where this defensive lineman is,
[1:01:13] Speaker 2: and then you'll see Bortolini climb up to the second level,
[1:01:17] Speaker 2: but the properties are the same here. It's highlighting his athleticism.
[1:01:21] Speaker 2: That's what we're really looking for here. Snap the ball,
[1:01:24] Speaker 2: getting off the football. There's a combo block there from him,
[1:01:27] Speaker 2: and then he just gets to the second level, and again,
[1:01:29] Speaker 2: paves the way for Jonathan Taylor to get those extra
[1:01:32] Speaker 2: yards there. So that athleticism, highlighting that, it's a major
[1:01:36] Speaker 2: calling card of his game and why he is so good.
[1:01:38] Speaker 2: It's been so good over the last year. This play
[1:01:41] Speaker 2: really though, is the one that I want to highlight.
[1:01:43] Speaker 2: So you'll see Bortolini here is the center.
[1:01:46] Speaker 1: All right.
[1:01:47] Speaker 2: He's got a defensive lineman right in front of him,
[1:01:50] Speaker 2: right over the shade of the left shoulder. Okay. So
[1:01:53] Speaker 2: you would think that once the ball gets snapped, that's
[1:01:55] Speaker 2: his guy that he has to block. But no, the
[1:01:57] Speaker 2: concept of this rushing play, everything is getting horizontal before
[1:02:02] Speaker 2: it is getting vertical. So Tanner Bortolini actually has to
[1:02:05] Speaker 2: get Not only does he have to snap the ball quickly,
[1:02:07] Speaker 2: he has to get all the way to this defensive lineman,
[1:02:09] Speaker 2: reach block him, and create a wall for the running
[1:02:13] Speaker 2: back to run behind him. That's an incredibly difficult thing
[1:02:17] Speaker 2: to do, and yet Tanner Bordelini can do it and
[1:02:21] Speaker 2: do it very well. You see him get off the ball,
[1:02:23] Speaker 2: fire off the ball, get to that defensive lineman, reach
[1:02:27] Speaker 2: block him, have good hand usage, good pad level, good strength,
[1:02:31] Speaker 2: and there it is, creating that rushing lane because he
[1:02:34] Speaker 2: was able to wall off this defensive lineman in a
[1:02:39] Speaker 2: way that you only get to do if you're a
[1:02:42] Speaker 2: top-tier athlete. That first half of the season, they were
[1:02:45] Speaker 2: just one of the best run-blocking units in the NFL,
[1:02:48] Speaker 2: and I think Tanner Bordelini is a huge reason why
[1:02:50] Speaker 2: they will need him again this year. They had Ryan
[1:02:52] Speaker 2: Kelly for all those years. Bordelini stepped in and was
[1:02:54] Speaker 2: just like, boom, hey, I'm here now. I'm taking the
[1:02:57] Speaker 2: torch from him.
[1:02:59] Speaker 1: We're good to go.
[1:03:00] Speaker 2: Let's rock and roll this season. I think he's going
[1:03:01] Speaker 2: to do that this year as well.
[1:03:03] Speaker 1: See, here's how I know this show's going to change
[1:03:04] Speaker 1: sports media. How many other season preview shows are doing
[1:03:07] Speaker 1: Tanner Bordellini XOs? Yeah. I don't think any of them.
[1:03:12] Speaker 2: If there's more than one, it's probably less than three.
[1:03:15] Speaker 2: That's all I'll say there. But that's what we're all
[1:03:18] Speaker 2: about here on this show. We got a couple of
[1:03:20] Speaker 2: fun things to point out before we get out of here.
[1:03:23] Speaker 2: We're throwing the challenge flags on these. What's on our mind,
[1:03:29] Speaker 2: what we really want to speak about, something that's been
[1:03:31] Speaker 2: bothering us that we just need to get off of
[1:03:33] Speaker 2: our chest before we get out of here. Brett, what
[1:03:36] Speaker 2: is your topic that you want.
[1:03:37] Speaker 1: To bring up to the people? I understand the value
[1:03:39] Speaker 1: of joint practices. We have to do it smarter, right?
[1:03:44] Speaker 1: The number one rule of these, and I know it
[1:03:46] Speaker 1: just drives coaches crazy, the number one rule of joint practices,
[1:03:50] Speaker 1: everybody stay off the ground. I think how the Bills
[1:03:53] Speaker 1: have approached this, Their preseason process this year, their injuries,
[1:03:58] Speaker 1: and this is actually a stat that came from Banged
[1:04:00] Speaker 1: Up Bills over on Twitter. You guys follow him. He's
[1:04:02] Speaker 1: awesome for Bills injury news if you're a Bills fan.
[1:04:06] Speaker 1: Bills preseason injuries are down 47% year over year. Wow.
[1:04:12] Speaker 1: Because they are practicing very smartly. They kind of stretched
[1:04:16] Speaker 1: out their practice schedule a little bit so they weren't
[1:04:18] Speaker 1: doing so many back-to-backs. Guys had more recovery time. They
[1:04:22] Speaker 1: were cautious about bringing guys back too early. So there
[1:04:25] Speaker 1: wasn't any overuse injuries. They weren't getting exposed to injuries
[1:04:29] Speaker 1: quite as often. And now they're actually going into the
[1:04:32] Speaker 1: season healthier than they have in quite a while. And
[1:04:35] Speaker 1: I think it's because Joe Brady understood like it's a
[1:04:38] Speaker 1: long season. We've got 17 regular season games. We've got
[1:04:40] Speaker 1: four playoff games. Ideally after that, like we can't be
[1:04:43] Speaker 1: losing people in July and August. Not that we're taking
[1:04:47] Speaker 1: it easy on guys, but we're doing it smart, right? We're,
[1:04:50] Speaker 1: we're lessening the load because it's such a long season and,
[1:04:53] Speaker 1: We're not throwing teammates into knees. And you look at
[1:04:56] Speaker 1: some teams that are already really banged up, and you
[1:04:58] Speaker 1: look at the Bills and how they did it. I
[1:05:00] Speaker 1: think that's the model that teams should really adopt here.
[1:05:03] Speaker 1: All right.
[1:05:04] Speaker 2: Brett, I also have something that I need to get
[1:05:06] Speaker 2: off of my chest here. This is my challenge flag
[1:05:08] Speaker 2: that I'm throwing.
[1:05:09] Speaker 1: Why are we in the shotgun?
[1:05:12] Speaker 2: On third and fourth and short, specifically on the goal line.
[1:05:16] Speaker 1: I can't stand this.
[1:05:18] Speaker 2: You know how hard teams have to work just to
[1:05:22] Speaker 2: get closer to the goal, whether it's a first down,
[1:05:24] Speaker 2: whether it's.
[1:05:24] Speaker 1: The end zone. I mean, millions.
[1:05:27] Speaker 2: I'm talking billions of dollars go into making this job
[1:05:32] Speaker 2: a little bit easier. And now you're going to say, nah,
[1:05:35] Speaker 2: we're good. Kick it back a little bit. We got
[1:05:37] Speaker 2: to up the difficulty before we get into the end
[1:05:39] Speaker 2: zone here. I got these numbers from NextGenStats. On third
[1:05:42] Speaker 2: and short and fourth and short, the success rate is
[1:05:46] Speaker 2: more than 10% higher when you are not in the
[1:05:49] Speaker 2: shotgun versus in the shotgun. So when you are under center,
[1:05:52] Speaker 2: it is a 10% higher success rate there. On the
[1:05:55] Speaker 2: goal line, it's 6% higher. Everything's more difficult in the
[1:05:58] Speaker 2: goal line, but it's 6% higher when you're under center
[1:06:01] Speaker 2: instead of in the shotgun.
[1:06:03] Speaker 1: Brett, I just don't understand it. Why are we making
[1:06:05] Speaker 1: this more difficult?
[1:06:06] Speaker 2: Why are we adding yardage to the goal of what
[1:06:09] Speaker 2: we're trying to achieve here?
[1:06:11] Speaker 1: I'll bet you anything the only exception is the Chiefs
[1:06:15] Speaker 1: during peak Dynasty Chiefs years because they would do just
[1:06:19] Speaker 1: random stuff on the goal line, like shovel passes to Kelsey.
[1:06:22] Speaker 2: That's a little different. If you are being creative like that, essentially,
[1:06:28] Speaker 2: if you're Andy Reid, I'll give you a full pass
[1:06:30] Speaker 2: because of what Andy Reid does.
[1:06:32] Speaker 1: If you're one of the greatest coaches of all time,
[1:06:34] Speaker 1: you get a full pass. By the way, actually, hold on.
[1:06:36] Speaker 1: Bonus challenge flag. The Chiefs just had an entire dynasty.
[1:06:40] Speaker 1: And who knows? Maybe it's not over. We'll see this season.
[1:06:42] Speaker 1: You know when the last time Andy Reid won Coach
[1:06:45] Speaker 1: of the Year was? 2002. It's been over two decades.
[1:06:51] Speaker 1: He didn't get any Coach of the Year awards. Since
[1:06:54] Speaker 1: taking over in Kansas City, he's been there for over
[1:06:56] Speaker 1: 10 years. They've been to like five Super Bowls. They've
[1:06:59] Speaker 1: won three of them. No coach of the year ever. That's...
[1:07:04] Speaker 1: An absolute travesty. You know what?
[1:07:06] Speaker 2: That's our unified challenge flag. We're on the same sideline
[1:07:09] Speaker 2: for that one because that's egregious. We appreciate you guys watching.
[1:07:13] Speaker 1: This is a ton of fun. Hopefully you guys had
[1:07:15] Speaker 1: a lot of fun as well.
[1:07:16] Speaker 2: This is sort of like Brett said in the middle
[1:07:19] Speaker 2: of the show, a little taste of what you guys
[1:07:21] Speaker 2: are going to get every single season. We're going to
[1:07:23] Speaker 2: be with you every Monday and Friday. Obviously on the
[1:07:25] Speaker 2: Monday show, we'll be breaking down what we just saw
[1:07:27] Speaker 2: sort of on Sunday. uh, and everything that happened there
[1:07:30] Speaker 2: from a trends perspective, things that surprised us, things that didn't,
[1:07:32] Speaker 2: all that kinds of stuff. And then on the Friday show,
[1:07:35] Speaker 2: we'll really be diving into the film and be breaking
[1:07:38] Speaker 2: down a lot of stuff for you guys of why
[1:07:41] Speaker 2: things are happening around the NFL, the way that they are.
[1:07:43] Speaker 2: So please subscribe to the channel. We would love to
[1:07:46] Speaker 2: have you back every single week. We'll go back and
[1:07:49] Speaker 2: forth in the comments with you guys as well. Let
[1:07:51] Speaker 2: us know any thoughts that you had on any of
[1:07:52] Speaker 2: the topics that we had here on this show.
[1:07:55] Speaker 1: And, uh, Yeah, man. Full steam ahead.
[1:07:57] Speaker 2: We're rolling and we'll see you guys for the next one.
[1:07:59] Speaker 2: Appreciate you watching.
[1:08:00] Speaker 1: Follow us on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get
[1:08:03] Speaker 1: your podcasts and analyze the game like a pro. And
[1:08:06] Speaker 1: we will see you back here. It's a beautiful day
[1:08:08] Speaker 1: for some football.

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