# Brett Kollmann & Trevor Sikkema's Week 2 Preview | NFL Pro

An episode of [NFL: The Insiders](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1543090622), 17 Sep 2026, 1 h 16 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/f10d0743-9ff9-4fde-8286-b4b200dd74e1/da60bd84-b755-4729-a8c8-b4c8018299b0/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=3e412703-0644-468e-9001-ae390070e4db

Brett and Trevor dive into the biggest matchups coming into Week 2 of the NFL, breaking down play-calling trends that haven't been seen in nearly 20 years. They also debate which teams are primed to bounce back from disappointing Week 1 performances and which early-season success stories may struggle to carry their momentum into Week 2 and beyond. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: Welcome to the NFL Pro Week 2 Preview Podcast, and
[0:03] Speaker 1: thank you for listening on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
[0:06] Speaker 1: or wherever you get your podcasts. Be sure to follow
[0:09] Speaker 1: and subscribe to the show.
[0:11] Speaker 2: Two-point conversion to tie the game with 101 to go.
[0:14] Speaker 2: The Eagles did not care about the commander's run game
[0:17] Speaker 2: at all. They basically said, sure, okay, try to run
[0:21] Speaker 2: the ball.
[0:21] Speaker 3: And the Eagles stop them!
[0:23] Speaker 2: When you look at this game, you know what really
[0:26] Speaker 2: stood out to me? the offensive line.
[0:29] Speaker 1: My goodness, Will McDonald burying Cam Ward. I think running
[0:34] Speaker 1: backs have been devalued, erroneously even.
[0:38] Speaker 3: Erroneous on all accounts.
[0:40] Speaker 1: On every account.
[0:40] Speaker 4: 60-yard run by Ken Walker III!
[0:50] Speaker 1: It's time for week two. We're going to tackle all
[0:52] Speaker 1: the game previews you guys have been begging us to
[0:54] Speaker 1: get to for days on end, which is good because
[0:57] Speaker 1: now At least somebody's going to be tackling something.
[1:04] Speaker 2: We're sitting here talking about, oh, abolish the preseason. Preseason
[1:08] Speaker 2: games don't matter. Let's just cancel the preseason and go
[1:10] Speaker 2: straight to the regular season. The lack of execution, the
[1:14] Speaker 2: lack of physical football, the lack of good teams that
[1:18] Speaker 2: were ready to play in week one and fell flat. Dude,
[1:21] Speaker 2: I think that tells us the exact opposite. The missed
[1:24] Speaker 2: tackle rate was the highest that it has.
[1:26] Speaker 3: Been in seven years.
[1:29] Speaker 2: 14.8% missed tackle rate across the NFL in week one.
[1:32] Speaker 2: That shows me that we didn't play enough football in August,
[1:36] Speaker 2: that these guys weren't exactly ready for the physicality of
[1:38] Speaker 2: the regular season. And man, it just, it was, it
[1:41] Speaker 2: was eye-opening to watch, especially in that Monday night football
[1:44] Speaker 2: game with the Broncos.
[1:45] Speaker 1: And, you know, practice habits have changed. And we used
[1:49] Speaker 1: to have two-a-days back in the day. I'm not advocating
[1:51] Speaker 1: for going back to two-a-days, you know, in, like, 100-degree heat.
[1:54] Speaker 1: Back in my day. But, like, guys did tackle better
[1:59] Speaker 1: in September. At least it felt like it. So I
[2:03] Speaker 1: don't know what the solution is here. I'm sure there's
[2:05] Speaker 1: a way to fix this issue. I don't know what
[2:08] Speaker 1: it is yet. I am not an elite football coach.
[2:11] Speaker 1: But clearly, like, tackling donuts aren't cutting it right now.
[2:14] Speaker 2: The way that you get better at playing football is
[2:17] Speaker 2: by playing football. And there's a physical part of it
[2:20] Speaker 2: that goes into it. And we're going to tackle a
[2:21] Speaker 2: lot of league trends as the year goes on. But honestly,
[2:24] Speaker 2: this is the biggest league trend after week one, in
[2:27] Speaker 2: my opinion, is just the sheer number of teams that
[2:31] Speaker 2: weren't ready for the physical demands of playing a regular
[2:34] Speaker 2: season football game. I've got some more NGS stats here
[2:37] Speaker 2: for the people. 61 explosive plays after missed tackles allowed
[2:42] Speaker 2: in week one. Last year was 36. 36 to 61?
[2:49] Speaker 2: That is a league trend. That is something that I
[2:54] Speaker 2: am very, very curious to see what the numbers look
[2:57] Speaker 2: like week two versus week one, right? I mean, are
[3:01] Speaker 2: these coaches just absolutely getting into these players? Are these
[3:04] Speaker 2: players like, okay, I thought I knew what it was
[3:08] Speaker 2: going to take to perform the way that I know
[3:11] Speaker 2: I can perform in week one and it clearly was
[3:13] Speaker 2: not there. How quickly can we solve this? Is it
[3:15] Speaker 2: a flip of the switch? Is it going to take
[3:17] Speaker 2: a little bit of time because these guys didn't play
[3:19] Speaker 2: nearly as much as the preseason? So another number, 17.7%
[3:24] Speaker 2: of all scrimmage yards in week one came after a
[3:27] Speaker 2: missed tackle. That's the highest share of any opening week
[3:30] Speaker 2: since 2018. So again, we're breaking records. This is a
[3:34] Speaker 2: trend in the worst way. And I just think that, man,
[3:37] Speaker 2: the missed tackle stuff, it was an epidemic in week one.
[3:40] Speaker 1: And it feels like it's such a simple thing, right?
[3:43] Speaker 1: This whole game, this entire sport is just blocking and tackling.
[3:47] Speaker 1: It's one of the oldest platitudes in football. It's just
[3:50] Speaker 1: blocking and tackling. And if you can't do half of that,
[3:55] Speaker 1: then what are you as a defense? It was just disgusting.
[4:00] Speaker 1: Every defensive coach on planet Earth hated watching football this week.
[4:04] Speaker 1: And that's probably a good segue, by the way, to
[4:06] Speaker 1: talk about Broncos-Jags because these two teams are coming in
[4:09] Speaker 1: from complete opposite experiences in week one. And of all
[4:13] Speaker 1: the teams that couldn't tackle in week one, Denver was
[4:16] Speaker 1: by far the worst.
[4:18] Speaker 5: Nine months after ACL surgery, Patrick Mahomes runs it in
[4:23] Speaker 5: from 15 yards out.
[4:25] Speaker 4: Yeah.
[4:25] Speaker 2: Historically bad rate here for the Denver Broncos. And I
[4:29] Speaker 2: remember we were texting in the show group chat and
[4:32] Speaker 2: you and I were kind of like, wow, like 23%
[4:36] Speaker 2: missed tackle rate. And we were kind of pointing that
[4:37] Speaker 2: out to each other because we said, there's no way.
[4:41] Speaker 3: It goes up, right?
[4:42] Speaker 1: And the fourth quarter happened.
[4:43] Speaker 2: Dude, that was when it was like 22, 23%. And
[4:46] Speaker 2: I could see the tweets now. The tweets would have
[4:48] Speaker 2: been at one point, the Broncos were missing 22 or 23%
[4:54] Speaker 2: of a tackle rate throughout the game.
[4:56] Speaker 3: No, it got worse.
[4:57] Speaker 2: It absolutely did not get better. The Broncos had a 29.8%
[5:00] Speaker 2: missed tackle rate. Against the Kansas City Chiefs. 248 missed
[5:07] Speaker 2: tackle yards allowed. That rate was the highest in the
[5:13] Speaker 2: league in a single game.
[5:14] Speaker 3: Since week 3 of 2023.
[5:15] Speaker 2: When the Broncos also had a 29.9% missed tackle rate.
[5:20] Speaker 3: Not ideal.
[5:21] Speaker 2: And that was the most such yards given up from
[5:23] Speaker 2: missed tackles since 2018.
[5:25] Speaker 3: Travis Kelsey. Inside the 20.
[5:31] Speaker 1: Down to the 5.
[5:33] Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, it was terrible.
[5:34] Speaker 2: And you mentioned as a good segue going into this game,
[5:37] Speaker 2: because the Jags offense, man, it looked fast.
[5:40] Speaker 3: It looked confident. Liam Cohen had these boys ready.
[5:44] Speaker 2: They put their foot on the gas pedal and they
[5:45] Speaker 2: did not let up until, you know, you got well
[5:48] Speaker 2: into the fourth quarter of that game. Okay, let's break
[5:51] Speaker 2: down the absurdity of this Trevor Lawrence touchdown here. So
[5:55] Speaker 2: we're setting things up and we see that we've got
[5:57] Speaker 2: one running back in the backfield. We've got two tight
[5:59] Speaker 2: ends on the line of scrimmage. So we have 12
[6:01] Speaker 2: personnel total. That's what we're talking about here. So 12
[6:04] Speaker 2: personnel here for the Jacksonville Jaguars. And when you look
[6:07] Speaker 2: at things from the defensive side of things, it looks
[6:09] Speaker 2: like could be cover one.
[6:10] Speaker 1: You've got one.
[6:11] Speaker 2: Single high safety right here, and you've got a handful
[6:13] Speaker 2: of these defenders that are sort of right in front
[6:17] Speaker 2: of where these receiving options would be. But when we
[6:20] Speaker 2: start this play... We'll motion this wide receiver in. Once
[6:23] Speaker 2: we get to a condensed set, yes, this defender did
[6:26] Speaker 2: travel with this wide receiver, but then he backed up.
[6:29] Speaker 2: He didn't get into a press coverage look, so it
[6:30] Speaker 2: tells you, okay, we're more likely looking at cover three
[6:33] Speaker 2: here and not a cover one set. Now, it's in
[6:35] Speaker 2: the red zone, so everything kind of plays like man
[6:38] Speaker 2: eventually because anytime a guy gets in a zone, you're
[6:40] Speaker 2: probably playing him in some sort of man principle. So
[6:42] Speaker 2: you know you're going to get some sort of man
[6:44] Speaker 2: coverage type of look somewhere. And you do get that
[6:48] Speaker 2: on this side of the field right here.
[6:50] Speaker 3: But it just does.
[6:51] Speaker 2: Not matter to Trevor Lawrence. Okay, here's a little quick
[6:54] Speaker 2: play action. And he already knows where he is going
[6:57] Speaker 2: to go with the ball. Which is absolutely absurd. Because
[7:01] Speaker 2: there's no separation here from the wide receiver. The safety
[7:05] Speaker 2: was already creeping in this direction. You have this zone defender,
[7:09] Speaker 2: this zone defender. And yet Trevor Lawrence.
[7:11] Speaker 3: Goes, nope. Right here, I see the throwing window. I'm
[7:15] Speaker 3: absolutely making this happen.
[7:16] Speaker 2: And I want you guys to remember, this is the
[7:18] Speaker 2: first quarter. They're only up 7-0. It's not like this
[7:22] Speaker 2: game is 30-0 and it's way out of hand and
[7:24] Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence just says to himself.
[7:26] Speaker 3: Nah, I don't care, this doesn't really matter.
[7:28] Speaker 2: He's going for this absurd throw because at the beginning
[7:30] Speaker 2: of the game, there was a sound bite from him,
[7:32] Speaker 2: and he said, hey, we should not feel pressure at
[7:35] Speaker 2: all in this game. We should be the ones applying
[7:37] Speaker 2: the pressure. We shouldn't feel on our heels at all.
[7:40] Speaker 2: This is the definition of that. Look how he rips
[7:43] Speaker 2: this throw in there. That is absolutely absurd to not
[7:49] Speaker 2: just see that potential throwing window, but actually have the
[7:52] Speaker 2: guts to throw the ball and then the talent.
[7:56] Speaker 3: To complete it. Unbelievable stuff.
[7:58] Speaker 2: And You know, we had to give you another angle
[8:00] Speaker 2: because here at NFL Pro, you know, we got flex
[8:03] Speaker 2: that we've got all the angles that we could show
[8:04] Speaker 2: you guys. This is the perfect angle here when you
[8:07] Speaker 2: get to see all of these defenders. So I'm going
[8:09] Speaker 2: to let this play start a little bit here. You're
[8:12] Speaker 2: going to see the quick play action from him. And
[8:15] Speaker 2: then right when Lawrence sets up, This is his point
[8:18] Speaker 2: of view here. This wide receiver is barely, I mean,
[8:21] Speaker 2: he's barely open right now. You can anticipate, hey, he's
[8:24] Speaker 2: got the break. He's got the inside leverage. He's going
[8:25] Speaker 2: to have a little bit of room. But this safety
[8:27] Speaker 2: is looking at him the entire time. This underneath defender
[8:30] Speaker 2: could absolutely get in the throwing window. Depending on where
[8:33] Speaker 2: Lawrence releases this ball, that zone defender could be a
[8:37] Speaker 2: factor here as well. And the fact of the matter
[8:39] Speaker 2: is it just simply did not matter. Look at where
[8:44] Speaker 2: that ball is. You cannot see the wide receiver. You
[8:48] Speaker 2: can only see four Cleveland Brown defenders. You can see
[8:53] Speaker 2: the football, and that wide receiver is totally behind the coverage. Again,
[8:58] Speaker 2: this is Trevor Lawrence's point of view here. It's an
[9:01] Speaker 2: unbelievable throw, and to be honest with you, we are
[9:04] Speaker 2: all this guy. We are all this guy right here
[9:08] Speaker 2: after watching the absurdity of that passing touchdown from Trevor Lawrence.
[9:13] Speaker 1: The good news for Denver is that the Jags offense
[9:15] Speaker 1: is like the polar opposite of what Kansas city did
[9:19] Speaker 1: to them in week one. If you're looking at yak percentage, right?
[9:22] Speaker 1: So the total number of passing yards, a total percentage
[9:24] Speaker 1: of passing yards that was after the catch Kansas city easily,
[9:28] Speaker 1: you know, and obviously number one across the league in
[9:30] Speaker 1: week one, The Jags were the lowest. They were very
[9:33] Speaker 1: much a downfield passing game, like no yards after catch required.
[9:37] Speaker 1: They were getting them all through the air. And so
[9:39] Speaker 1: I'm curious to see if that's actually a better matchup
[9:42] Speaker 1: for Denver, because if they did one thing well, it
[9:44] Speaker 1: was not really allowing Kansas City to even go vertical.
[9:49] Speaker 1: They tried one time, and it resulted in a miscommunication
[9:51] Speaker 1: and an interception by Mahomes that wasn't really on Mahomes.
[9:54] Speaker 1: But maybe that's the saving grace for Denver here, is
[9:57] Speaker 1: that they're not really going up against a team... like
[10:00] Speaker 1: even last year that was good at yards after catch.
[10:03] Speaker 1: Jacksonville had the sixth lowest yak percentage in all of 2025.
[10:06] Speaker 1: So this wasn't just like a one week thing. But
[10:10] Speaker 1: even then, I don't know how any Broncos fan can
[10:15] Speaker 1: look at what happened in week one and feel any
[10:17] Speaker 1: sort of confidence right now. Like that was just ugly.
[10:20] Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it has to be night and day.
[10:22] Speaker 2: I don't really think there's any way around it. There's
[10:24] Speaker 2: no like, all right, well, if we tweak this little
[10:26] Speaker 2: thing here and there, I think that we'll be okay.
[10:27] Speaker 2: I mean, it just has to look completely different. I
[10:30] Speaker 2: am very curious to see if the Jags can sort
[10:34] Speaker 2: of change it up a little bit here, right? Like,
[10:38] Speaker 2: do they throw the ball a little bit shorter? Do
[10:40] Speaker 2: they lean on yards after catch a little bit more?
[10:42] Speaker 2: Because I think if there's been a critique of Trevor
[10:44] Speaker 2: Lawrence that the highs have been phenomenal for him when
[10:47] Speaker 2: they've been there, but can he within a game change
[10:50] Speaker 2: himself or change what they want to do. And I
[10:53] Speaker 2: think Cohen's a great coach and he's going to be
[10:55] Speaker 2: able to sort of have that at his disposal.
[10:58] Speaker 3: But can Trevor execute?
[10:59] Speaker 2: Can you go from one game plan one week to
[11:02] Speaker 2: something maybe completely different to try to take advantage of
[11:05] Speaker 2: the weaknesses of a defense out there?
[11:07] Speaker 1: And also, you know, the Broncos defense does play different
[11:11] Speaker 1: structurally than the one they faced against Cleveland. About 70%
[11:14] Speaker 1: of every single coverage call by the Browns last week
[11:18] Speaker 1: was either cover three or cover one, and the majority
[11:20] Speaker 1: of those were cover three. It kind of looked, you know,
[11:23] Speaker 1: earmuffs Jacks fans, kind of looked like a Gus Bradley
[11:25] Speaker 1: defense a little bit. A lot of cover three. And
[11:28] Speaker 1: whenever it was cover three, they just tore apart the linebackers.
[11:31] Speaker 1: When it was cover one, they tore apart the corners.
[11:33] Speaker 1: Like nobody could cover a man in this game. It
[11:35] Speaker 1: was really disgusting. But Trevor was so dialed in against
[11:39] Speaker 1: these single high structures, and it just felt like Cleveland
[11:42] Speaker 1: didn't have an answer. I'm really interested to see if
[11:46] Speaker 1: Denver kind of leans more into that Not even cover two,
[11:49] Speaker 1: more like quarter, quarter, half kind of lifestyle here. You know,
[11:53] Speaker 1: take away that deep ball down the boundary, and then
[11:55] Speaker 1: you have Sertan backside just being Pat Sertan. Again, structurally
[12:00] Speaker 1: a little bit of a different defense here for Jacksonville.
[12:02] Speaker 1: That's why this matchup fascinates me so much is because
[12:05] Speaker 1: it's such a slingshot between styles that they're facing from
[12:09] Speaker 1: week one to week two. And, you know, to kind
[12:12] Speaker 1: of mix metaphors here, styles make fights in the NFL.
[12:15] Speaker 1: For sure.
[12:16] Speaker 2: Yeah, I do want to touch on the other side
[12:19] Speaker 2: of things when the Broncos offense goes up against the
[12:22] Speaker 2: Jags defense, because I went back and I watched all
[12:26] Speaker 2: of Jalen Waddle's snaps and routes from this game. And
[12:29] Speaker 2: I was like, OK, what happened here? Like, could they
[12:32] Speaker 2: just not get him the ball? Were they really honed
[12:34] Speaker 2: in on him?
[12:35] Speaker 3: Honestly, Brett, my.
[12:37] Speaker 2: Number one takeaway was just Steve Spagnuolo.
[12:41] Speaker 3: Masterclass. Genuinely.
[12:43] Speaker 2: A masterclass from the defensive coordinator because I noticed early
[12:47] Speaker 2: on that the Broncos wanted to use Jay and the
[12:50] Speaker 2: Waddle as a decoy to get a lot of other
[12:52] Speaker 2: people open.
[12:52] Speaker 3: They wanted to see how.
[12:54] Speaker 2: The Kansas City Chiefs defense was going to focus in
[12:57] Speaker 2: on him. The very first play was orbit motion with
[13:00] Speaker 2: Jalen Waddell.
[13:00] Speaker 3: It's like, okay, let's see. How are they going to adjust?
[13:03] Speaker 3: How are they going to focus on him?
[13:04] Speaker 2: Obviously, the touchdown that they had at the front pylon,
[13:06] Speaker 2: that was also from a Jalen Waddell out of the
[13:08] Speaker 2: backfield type of route, which, by the way, anybody who
[13:10] Speaker 2: watched NFL Pro, you watched that happen live. You saw
[13:13] Speaker 2: Jalen Waddell out of the backfield, and even though he
[13:14] Speaker 2: didn't get the ball, his presence out of the backfield
[13:17] Speaker 2: is a big reason why that was a touchdown. So
[13:19] Speaker 2: that's why you watch the show, people. Make sure you subscribe.
[13:22] Speaker 4: But.
[13:23] Speaker 2: When I watched him be like this decoy, the Chiefs
[13:26] Speaker 2: just had the perfect defense for it. They played so
[13:30] Speaker 2: much two deep and three deep coverage in this game.
[13:33] Speaker 2: They said, okay, sure, you want to throw it deep?
[13:36] Speaker 2: We got the numbers for it. We got the bodies
[13:37] Speaker 2: for it. And if you want to throw it underneath,
[13:40] Speaker 2: because that's sort of the give and take, right? We're
[13:42] Speaker 2: going to put more bodies in the deep portion of
[13:46] Speaker 2: the field. Well, that means there's less to cover.
[13:49] Speaker 3: The underneath.
[13:49] Speaker 2: That means that you're probably going to give up throws
[13:51] Speaker 2: and completions underneath, which then requires what?
[13:54] Speaker 3: Rallying and tackling.
[13:56] Speaker 1: Okay.
[13:56] Speaker 2: 8.7% missed tackle percentage as a team, despite the fact
[14:03] Speaker 2: that Bo Nix had 20 passes of 10 or less
[14:07] Speaker 2: air yards. Legereus Sneed, he is back. He's the perfect
[14:10] Speaker 2: player for this defense. He had four solo stops himself.
[14:13] Speaker 2: I watched Drew Tranquil and Nick Bolton rally to the
[14:17] Speaker 2: ball and be so reliable. These underneath zone defenders were
[14:20] Speaker 2: so ready to do their job when those short passes
[14:24] Speaker 2: ended up coming.
[14:25] Speaker 3: Okay.
[14:26] Speaker 2: You can't hit anything deep. Sure, the underneath stuff is open,
[14:29] Speaker 2: but it's not going anywhere. Now, all of a sudden,
[14:33] Speaker 2: the Chiefs are up 10. Now, all of a sudden,
[14:35] Speaker 2: the Chiefs are up three scores.
[14:36] Speaker 3: Now, what do we do? Now, we've got to force it.
[14:38] Speaker 2: And that's, I think, why you see the Bo Nix
[14:41] Speaker 2: panic plays.
[14:42] Speaker 1: Intercepted by the rookie Delane.
[14:46] Speaker 2: Real quick, I think the question that Jags fans have is,
[14:49] Speaker 2: do the Jags and Anthony Campanelli have this recipe to
[14:52] Speaker 2: sort of do the same thing and frustrate Nix the
[14:54] Speaker 2: same way?
[14:54] Speaker 1: I mean, that was their calling card last year, right? Campanelli,
[14:57] Speaker 1: he has both a Vic Fangio heritage and a Jeff
[15:00] Speaker 1: Halfley heritage kind of mixed together. And I think if
[15:02] Speaker 1: you're looking at the specific matchup between the Broncos and
[15:06] Speaker 1: Campanelli's defense in Jacksonville, they're probably going to see a
[15:09] Speaker 1: lot of the same stuff This week that they saw
[15:12] Speaker 1: last week, specifically with we're going to build that umbrella
[15:15] Speaker 1: over the top, rally and tackle and anything underneath. We're
[15:17] Speaker 1: going to try to use rotations. We're going to try
[15:19] Speaker 1: to use disguise, anything to slow down his clock so
[15:23] Speaker 1: that our great pass rushers can get there. The one
[15:26] Speaker 1: key difference, and this is what I'm really fascinated by.
[15:29] Speaker 1: If you're looking at the changeup that Spaggs had in
[15:32] Speaker 1: week one, it wasn't just that aggressive man coverage. It
[15:36] Speaker 1: was man coverage paired with pressure. 50% of all the Chiefs'
[15:40] Speaker 1: man coverage calls had six-plus rushers attached to it. It
[15:45] Speaker 1: wasn't just we're rushing five. We're rushing six with man coverage.
[15:49] Speaker 1: And when you have receivers not getting attacked, but let's
[15:56] Speaker 1: say scuffed up a little bit.
[15:58] Speaker 3: You can play a little physical.
[15:59] Speaker 1: A little physical?
[16:01] Speaker 3: You can't kill.
[16:02] Speaker 2: Them just out of the yards for free. Nobody can
[16:05] Speaker 2: say anything for free. I work for it in this league.
[16:07] Speaker 3: Was it a penalty?
[16:08] Speaker 1: Eh, who's going to say? Didn't get called, not a penalty.
[16:13] Speaker 1: I will say, though, with those tight windows from man
[16:16] Speaker 1: coverage paired with pressure, and it sped up Nix's clock
[16:21] Speaker 1: so much, and Nix with a sped up clock isn't
[16:23] Speaker 1: necessarily going to be able to make the tight window
[16:26] Speaker 1: throws that are required to beat tight man coverage. And
[16:30] Speaker 1: we saw that over and over and over in this game.
[16:33] Speaker 1: At one point in the fourth quarter, he was averaging
[16:34] Speaker 1: like three yards per attempt against man. And that was
[16:38] Speaker 1: largely because those man coverages were paired with pressure. Campanelli
[16:41] Speaker 1: doesn't really do that in Jacksonville. Not only do they
[16:44] Speaker 1: not call a lot of man, they also don't call
[16:46] Speaker 1: a lot of six-man pressures with man coverage. So that's
[16:51] Speaker 1: part of the reason why I'm so interested in this
[16:53] Speaker 1: matchup is a lot of the stuff that really tore
[16:56] Speaker 1: Denver to pieces last week. The Jags don't necessarily do
[17:00] Speaker 1: it on either side of the ball.
[17:02] Speaker 3: That ball is caught!
[17:03] Speaker 1: The fourth touchdown pass of the day for Trevor Lawrence!
[17:08] Speaker 3: How good is that?
[17:10] Speaker 2: So let's stay with the Chiefs because the Chiefs also
[17:12] Speaker 2: play the Colts and we want to talk about this
[17:13] Speaker 2: game here.
[17:14] Speaker 3: Specifically the Colts defensive side of things.
[17:19] Speaker 2: It's something that I'm worried about here. Brett, because I
[17:23] Speaker 2: think that they're trying to play a defense. I think
[17:25] Speaker 2: Lou Anarumo is trying to play a defense that fits
[17:30] Speaker 2: one of his players, but not most of his players
[17:34] Speaker 2: on defense. And that is how often they play man coverage.
[17:39] Speaker 2: So they played man on more than 50% of their
[17:43] Speaker 2: snaps in week one. And obviously it didn't work well
[17:46] Speaker 2: versus the Baltimore Ravens, but You can take things back
[17:48] Speaker 2: a little bit further because since the Sauce Gardner trade,
[17:52] Speaker 2: they have the fifth highest man coverage rate in the NFL, 35.2%.
[17:58] Speaker 2: That's a plus 6.7% man coverage rate before and after
[18:03] Speaker 2: the Sauce Gardner trade. When you look at this past game,
[18:07] Speaker 2: Sauce allowed one catch for 12 yards in man coverage.
[18:11] Speaker 3: The rest of the team.
[18:12] Speaker 2: Eight catches for 180 yards. For me, this defense, I'm
[18:16] Speaker 2: worried about it because it just feels like they're trying
[18:18] Speaker 2: to play a coverage that fits one player, their prized player,
[18:22] Speaker 2: but it doesn't really fit the other guys that are.
[18:23] Speaker 3: On the team.
[18:24] Speaker 2: And defense, man, it's so much about all 11 guys
[18:27] Speaker 2: working together and playing well. So I'm worried about this
[18:30] Speaker 2: team on defense, especially for a Kansas City Chiefs offense
[18:34] Speaker 2: that knows how to attack me in coverage like that.
[18:36] Speaker 1: And one of the things that Declan Doyle did in
[18:37] Speaker 1: that game that I think was super underrated was he
[18:40] Speaker 1: was using motions and formations not just to dictate that
[18:44] Speaker 1: man coverage in a sense, but also to identify it
[18:46] Speaker 1: to confirm that that dictation worked. What I mean by
[18:50] Speaker 1: that is they had a 67.2% shift in motion rate,
[18:53] Speaker 1: which is a good way to see if they're in
[18:55] Speaker 1: man coverage, if somebody's going to be moving across the formation,
[18:58] Speaker 1: is their defender following them? Usually means it's going to
[19:00] Speaker 1: be man. They had a 37% nub rate, which was
[19:03] Speaker 1: third highest in week one. And a significant chunk of
[19:07] Speaker 1: that was man six offensive line looks right. Getting that
[19:11] Speaker 1: jumbo tackle on the field. And what they were doing
[19:13] Speaker 1: a lot was either they were, you know, putting a
[19:15] Speaker 1: tight end in and up to one side and then
[19:17] Speaker 1: three receivers to the other side, or they were putting
[19:19] Speaker 1: that jumbo tackle to one side and three receivers, the
[19:22] Speaker 1: other side, because you had snaps. Like there was one,
[19:25] Speaker 1: it was a first down to Mark Andrews where you
[19:28] Speaker 1: had the jumbo tackle on the field and sauce was
[19:30] Speaker 1: lined up on him. So obviously it's zone because sauce
[19:33] Speaker 1: isn't going to cover an offensive tackle in man coverage.
[19:36] Speaker 3: I mean, he would, Preference wise, he could.
[19:38] Speaker 1: Yeah, probably.
[19:39] Speaker 3: Yeah, right.
[19:40] Speaker 1: But, you know, he was using formations and basically being like,
[19:43] Speaker 1: either you match it with corners and tell us you're
[19:46] Speaker 1: in man or you match it with, you know, a
[19:48] Speaker 1: safety or a linebacker or whatever. And you tell us
[19:51] Speaker 1: you're in zone and then we just know exactly what
[19:53] Speaker 1: you're doing. Like that was half the reason that 54
[19:55] Speaker 1: yard catch and run touchdown. They had Justice Hill lined
[19:58] Speaker 1: up out wide with a corner on him. Well, now
[20:00] Speaker 1: we know it's zone and we're pretty sure it's going
[20:02] Speaker 1: to be a fire zone. And it was. And Lamar
[20:05] Speaker 1: gave like a brilliant little pump fake to get the
[20:06] Speaker 1: safety to jump into lane and threw it around him.
[20:09] Speaker 1: So they caught it, ran for the touchdown, like just
[20:11] Speaker 1: all the formation and motion stuff they did to them.
[20:13] Speaker 1: They made it not just hard on them to disguise,
[20:17] Speaker 1: they made it impossible to disguise what they were doing.
[20:20] Speaker 2: Now let's talk Chiefs offense because we got to have
[20:23] Speaker 2: the Kenneth Walker conversation. You and I in the season preview,
[20:26] Speaker 2: we highlighted Kenneth Walker and how much of a difference
[20:29] Speaker 2: maker he could be on this team.
[20:30] Speaker 3: Well, early returns say pretty dang good. Touchdown!
[20:35] Speaker 2: 60-yard run by Ken Walker III! A backfield presence that
[20:40] Speaker 2: this team hasn't had since.
[20:43] Speaker 3: Priest Holmes? Wow, Jamal Charles erasure.
[20:46] Speaker 1: Oh my god.
[20:47] Speaker 4: Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
[20:47] Speaker 1: You're sorry.
[20:48] Speaker 3: I'm sorry. I'm sorry.
[20:49] Speaker 2: That is Jamal Charles erasure. I was excited to get
[20:53] Speaker 2: a Priest Holmes shout-out here in the show.
[20:54] Speaker 1: Jarek McKinnon erasure, too!
[20:58] Speaker 2: But let's talk about Kenneth Walker. Let's talk about running
[21:00] Speaker 2: back value. Because he gets paid... coming over from the
[21:03] Speaker 2: Seattle Seahawks. Anytime a running back gets paid, it's always like, ooh,
[21:07] Speaker 2: I don't know about that, even if.
[21:08] Speaker 3: They're really talented.
[21:09] Speaker 2: Well, we saw their returns on the field, but just overall,
[21:12] Speaker 2: let's have the value conversation about running backs here, especially
[21:15] Speaker 2: coming off a great performance from one who just got paid.
[21:18] Speaker 1: So if you go back to 2015, a little over
[21:20] Speaker 1: a decade ago, if you take the average of the
[21:24] Speaker 1: top 10 contracts at running back at that time and
[21:28] Speaker 1: the average of the top 10 contracts among edges here,
[21:32] Speaker 1: And you look at the percentage of the salary cap
[21:36] Speaker 1: that those averages came out to, the difference between running
[21:40] Speaker 1: back and edge was about a percent. The average of
[21:44] Speaker 1: the top 10 running back contracts took up 10.04% of
[21:48] Speaker 1: the salary cap. The average of the top 10 edge
[21:50] Speaker 1: contracts took up about 11.17% of the salary cap. Quarterback, meanwhile,
[21:56] Speaker 1: about 15.35%, which was already up significantly from a decade prior.
[22:01] Speaker 1: Before that, right, when Peyton Manning signed his big deal.
[22:04] Speaker 1: Fast forward to 2026, running back has steadily decreased as
[22:08] Speaker 1: far as the percentage of the cap that the average
[22:11] Speaker 1: of the top 10 contracts is taking up. Now it's
[22:13] Speaker 1: at 7.47%. Edge has climbed up to 16.6%. So you're
[22:20] Speaker 1: adding more than 5% to the average of top edge contracts.
[22:25] Speaker 1: You're taking away about 2.5% from the average of running
[22:28] Speaker 1: back contracts. quarterback has gone up to 21.25 percent so
[22:33] Speaker 1: they're just taking more and more and more and i
[22:37] Speaker 1: look at it as you know not that running backs
[22:41] Speaker 1: are being properly valued now i think running backs have
[22:44] Speaker 1: been devalued erroneously even at the expense.
[22:49] Speaker 3: Of erroneous on all accounts on every account.
[22:52] Speaker 1: But it all these other positions have just taken money
[22:56] Speaker 1: from these running backs yeah Right. And then you see
[23:00] Speaker 1: these offenses that have highly paid quarterbacks and highly paid
[23:03] Speaker 1: receivers and they can't move the ball. And it's because
[23:06] Speaker 1: they're consistently in third and long because they can't run
[23:09] Speaker 1: the ball. You're just kind of lighting money on fire
[23:12] Speaker 1: when you do that, because you have all of this
[23:15] Speaker 1: massive percentage of your salary cap. Let's say in the
[23:17] Speaker 1: Bengals case in quarterback and two receivers, if they were
[23:21] Speaker 1: the worst run game in the league and they were
[23:23] Speaker 1: consistently in third and eight because they couldn't run the ball.
[23:28] Speaker 1: If you're looking league wide at third down conversion percentages,
[23:31] Speaker 1: third and one to three league wide average conversion is 60%.
[23:34] Speaker 1: That's pretty damn good. League wide average conversion on third
[23:38] Speaker 1: and four to six to go is 43.7%. Still pretty good.
[23:43] Speaker 1: Once you get to third and seven to 10 drops
[23:45] Speaker 1: like a rock down to 31.3%, 11 plus is 14.5%.
[23:47] Speaker 1: So when you're bringing in a running back that can,
[23:54] Speaker 1: raise the ceiling of your running game, even by like
[23:57] Speaker 1: a yard per carry, and you're a good early down
[24:01] Speaker 1: run team, and you can get to more third and
[24:03] Speaker 1: four and six rather than third and seven to 10,
[24:06] Speaker 1: naturally your third down conversion rate is going to go up,
[24:10] Speaker 1: which means your offense is staying on the field, which
[24:12] Speaker 1: means you're getting more value out of the rest of
[24:15] Speaker 1: your offense just by paying a running back seven and
[24:19] Speaker 1: a half percent of your salary cap. Like it is
[24:22] Speaker 1: the most undervalued position in the sport right now. It's
[24:25] Speaker 1: been devalued wrongly, erroneously, and we're starting to see these
[24:31] Speaker 1: offenses realize that. You bring in Kenneth Walker, who's raising
[24:35] Speaker 1: the ceiling of your running game. Pat Mahomes started the night, what,
[24:37] Speaker 1: like 2 of 12? But it didn't matter because you
[24:40] Speaker 1: had a running back that could still keep you on
[24:42] Speaker 1: schedule and break off explosives by himself. Baltimore brought in
[24:45] Speaker 1: Derrick Henry, elevated their run game. The Niners traded a
[24:48] Speaker 1: bunch of picks for CMC. You think they'd regret that?
[24:51] Speaker 4: No.
[24:52] Speaker 1: The Texans traded for Dave Montgomery. They had a good
[24:54] Speaker 1: short yardage game for the first time in like years
[24:58] Speaker 1: in week one. So don't tell me running backs don't matter.
[25:01] Speaker 1: You have to pay them. Not anybody can do this.
[25:04] Speaker 1: And the fact that we were gaslit and thinking like,
[25:07] Speaker 1: oh yeah, Alfred Morris is the same as Adrian Peterson. No,
[25:12] Speaker 1: he's not.
[25:13] Speaker 3: All respect to Alfred Morris. It's not the same.
[25:16] Speaker 2: But that's always been the conversation is, The ones that
[25:20] Speaker 2: are worth it are worth it. To oversimplify everything into
[25:24] Speaker 2: one sentence, you have to find the running backs that
[25:27] Speaker 2: individually can elevate the offense. Because there's a lot of
[25:30] Speaker 2: running games where most of the success is is credit
[25:34] Speaker 2: to the offensive line and how potent the passing game
[25:37] Speaker 2: is and how easy things can be at the line
[25:39] Speaker 2: of scrimmage. But when you get a back like Kenneth Walker,
[25:42] Speaker 2: who led week one with 14 missed tackles and 114
[25:48] Speaker 2: missed tackle yards, that is super valuable because wherever you
[25:53] Speaker 2: force a missed tackle, you're bringing individual value to a play.
[25:57] Speaker 3: It's independent of your offensive line.
[25:59] Speaker 2: It's why when I look at scouting, there's so many
[26:01] Speaker 2: backs who rush for a crap ton of yards when
[26:04] Speaker 2: they're in college. But the ones that become great pros
[26:07] Speaker 2: are the ones who, whether it's behind the line of scrimmage,
[26:10] Speaker 2: at the line of scrimmage, beyond the line of scrimmage,
[26:12] Speaker 2: if you are making guys miss and if you are
[26:13] Speaker 2: getting yards after contact, that is you.
[26:15] Speaker 3: That is individual value.
[26:18] Speaker 2: And that's when you really start to elevate an offense.
[26:20] Speaker 2: And that is why Kenneth Walker was worth it for
[26:24] Speaker 2: the in a game against the Colts who struggle to
[26:29] Speaker 2: contain Derrick Henry, it doesn't get any easier this week
[26:33] Speaker 2: now that you're facing Kenneth Walker coming off that performance
[26:35] Speaker 2: on Monday night.
[26:36] Speaker 1: Also, one note to look at with these Colts linebackers,
[26:40] Speaker 1: second-round pick C.J. Allen, no snaps. Bryce Boettcher, fourth-round pick, 30%
[26:44] Speaker 1: of the snaps. Not sure why yet, but something to
[26:48] Speaker 1: keep an eye on.
[26:49] Speaker 2: Interesting.
[26:50] Speaker 3: Interesting.
[26:52] Speaker 1: Eagles-Titans.
[26:54] Speaker 3: Eagles come away with the win.
[26:55] Speaker 2: Against the Washington Commanders, but didn't exactly look like the
[26:58] Speaker 2: Eagles of old, and I think specifically, Brett, the offensive line.
[27:03] Speaker 2: The heart and soul, the true identity of why the
[27:05] Speaker 2: Eagles have been so good, it's been in both trenches,
[27:07] Speaker 2: and that O-line did not look the same in Philadelphia
[27:11] Speaker 2: against Washington.
[27:12] Speaker 1: Landon Dickerson, he just went on IR, and it was bad.
[27:18] Speaker 1: He needed to go on IR. He can't play right now.
[27:20] Speaker 1: He can't move right now. But it wasn't even just him.
[27:23] Speaker 1: The entire Eagles offensive line Wasn't good. Like they allowed
[27:27] Speaker 1: a 36.4% pressure rate. That was 12 highest, but really the,
[27:31] Speaker 1: the worst numbers were in the run game, right? Saquon
[27:35] Speaker 1: got the vast majority of his yards after contact because
[27:38] Speaker 1: he needed to, right? You took out the one long
[27:41] Speaker 1: run that he had in that game. The rest of
[27:42] Speaker 1: his day was 14 carries for 41 yards. He was
[27:45] Speaker 1: getting nothing done. And when you take away that kind
[27:49] Speaker 1: of run game, easy button from the Eagles, no matter
[27:52] Speaker 1: who their offensive coordinator is, When you take that away,
[27:56] Speaker 1: Jalen just has to play on hard mode. And credit
[27:59] Speaker 1: to him, by the way, he did that. He made
[28:02] Speaker 1: several excellent plays to bail him out of trouble in
[28:05] Speaker 1: that game. He had five scrambles for 48 yards, third
[28:09] Speaker 1: most across all of week one, most in a game
[28:12] Speaker 1: for him since week one of last year. 9.6 yards
[28:16] Speaker 1: per carry on those scrambles. He was damn near getting
[28:19] Speaker 1: a first down every time he took off. There was
[28:21] Speaker 1: a third and 18 late in the game that he
[28:23] Speaker 1: converted last just taking it upon his back. Be like,
[28:26] Speaker 1: I got to get us this first down. It's a
[28:28] Speaker 1: one point game. We're late in this thing. We got
[28:30] Speaker 1: to go. And he did it. This was the Jalen hurts,
[28:33] Speaker 1: put the team on your back kind of game. And,
[28:35] Speaker 1: you know, credit to him for doing it.
[28:38] Speaker 3: Not a whole lot else worked.
[28:39] Speaker 1: With this offense because of the offensive line. But if
[28:42] Speaker 1: Jalen can do that until they get this offensive line sorted,
[28:45] Speaker 1: maybe Dickerson comes off IR until that, if Jalen can
[28:48] Speaker 1: keep playing like this, they have a shot, but boy, it,
[28:53] Speaker 1: The difficulty level is just off the charts for him
[28:56] Speaker 1: right now.
[28:56] Speaker 2: On the other side of things, I want to talk
[28:58] Speaker 2: about the Titans offense because there was a lot of
[29:00] Speaker 2: hype for the new coaching staff, Brian Dable being with
[29:04] Speaker 2: Cam Ward. Obviously, you draft Cornell Tate number four overall,
[29:06] Speaker 2: but really tough first day. Cam Ward was 19 for 32,
[29:11] Speaker 2: 140 passing yards, had a touchdown, no interceptions, QB rating.
[29:14] Speaker 3: Of just 80.
[29:15] Speaker 2: Completion percentage below 60% here in this game.
[29:19] Speaker 3: Ultimately, though, I just felt as though Cam still looked.
[29:24] Speaker 2: And people want the yearly jump, like the year one
[29:27] Speaker 2: to year two jump. But for Cam, there were the
[29:30] Speaker 2: good moments, but then there were the hesitant moments. And
[29:33] Speaker 2: it was still a mixed bag and there were all
[29:35] Speaker 2: sorts of inconsistencies with Cam Ward. To me, there's just
[29:38] Speaker 2: so much going on in his head. He's not being
[29:41] Speaker 2: able to play super free, and I've kind of got
[29:44] Speaker 2: to get something off of my chest here, Brett. I
[29:46] Speaker 2: don't understand why we weren't talking about the Titans drafting
[29:50] Speaker 2: an offensive lineman at number four overall. They draft Carnell
[29:52] Speaker 2: Tate and everybody goes, and myself included, I go, okay, look,
[29:57] Speaker 2: is Tate a good fit for the next step for
[29:59] Speaker 2: Cam Ward and what this offense is going to be
[30:01] Speaker 2: as a legitimate vertical threat? To me, that was putting
[30:04] Speaker 2: the cart before the horse. To me, that was eating
[30:08] Speaker 2: dessert before you're eating your vegetables. Because when you look
[30:11] Speaker 2: at this game, you know what really stood out to me?
[30:15] Speaker 2: The offensive lines. this offensive line had the ninth highest
[30:19] Speaker 2: pressure rate in 2025 at a 37.1%. And in week one,
[30:25] Speaker 2: oh look, 41.0% pressure rate, eighth highest in the NFL.
[30:30] Speaker 2: So they're bottom 10 offensive line all of last year.
[30:32] Speaker 2: They were a bottom 10 offensive line in week one.
[30:35] Speaker 2: And this is the thing that baffled me the most, Brad.
[30:39] Speaker 2: They played 10 or 11 personnel on 85% of their snaps.
[30:47] Speaker 2: They played more snaps in empty at the snap than
[30:51] Speaker 2: any team in the NFL this week. You know what
[30:53] Speaker 2: happened when they ran those snaps? Either extremely quick throws
[30:58] Speaker 2: or pressures and sacks.
[31:00] Speaker 3: And terrible plays.
[31:02] Speaker 2: You don't have the offensive line to run 10 and
[31:05] Speaker 2: 11 personnel. You want to know why the air raid
[31:08] Speaker 2: and the spread offense works in college and it doesn't
[31:10] Speaker 2: in the NFL? offensive line because a lot of times
[31:15] Speaker 2: the best offense is in college football the talent gap
[31:19] Speaker 2: is so wide you can play five-man protections and the
[31:23] Speaker 2: other team doesn't have what it takes to cover you
[31:26] Speaker 2: and get pressure the way that you need to when
[31:30] Speaker 2: the Tennessee Titans went empty or when they were trying
[31:33] Speaker 2: to spread the field with with four wide receivers five
[31:35] Speaker 2: receiving options.
[31:37] Speaker 3: You know what the Jets did? They got home. They blitzed.
[31:40] Speaker 2: So for me, philosophically with this Titans offense, I'm worried
[31:46] Speaker 2: because what Cam Ward did really well when he was
[31:49] Speaker 2: at Washington State, when he was an incarnate word as well,
[31:51] Speaker 2: and then certainly when he was at Miami is it
[31:53] Speaker 2: was a lot of spread offense stuff. He wants to
[31:56] Speaker 2: be in the shotgun. He wants to have multiple receivers
[31:58] Speaker 2: that he could go to. You can only do that
[32:00] Speaker 2: if you have the offensive line to protect him. And
[32:03] Speaker 2: if you don't, it's going to end badly. And especially
[32:06] Speaker 2: because They don't really have a blocking tight end on
[32:11] Speaker 2: the roster to help them out here. Like they signed
[32:14] Speaker 2: Daniel Bellinger. Daniel Bellinger played 14 snaps for them this
[32:17] Speaker 2: past game. So is he really going to be a
[32:19] Speaker 2: presence where all of a sudden you're playing him on
[32:21] Speaker 2: the offensive line and he's really helping out and he's
[32:23] Speaker 2: in there for chip locks and everything? Because then you've
[32:25] Speaker 2: got to take a receiver off the field. And I
[32:26] Speaker 2: don't know how much they want to do that.
[32:28] Speaker 1: I'll tell you what. This game is going to be
[32:30] Speaker 1: great for fans of excellent defensive tackles. beating the crap
[32:34] Speaker 1: out of bad offensive lines. Because we talked about the
[32:37] Speaker 1: interior of the Eagles offensive line being bad. Well, Jeff
[32:40] Speaker 1: Simmons is coming to town. Good luck.
[32:42] Speaker 5: One play at a time.
[32:43] Speaker 2: Stay in the moment.
[32:45] Speaker 1: You're looking at the platoon of defensive tackles that the
[32:48] Speaker 1: Eagles are bringing with them, right? You're looking at Carter.
[32:51] Speaker 1: You're looking at Davis. Mauro Joma was sensational against the commanders. Like,
[32:56] Speaker 1: he's the one who made the play on that two-point stop.
[33:00] Speaker 1: He was reading a pole key. And then, you know,
[33:02] Speaker 1: the back block. kind of came in from his right side.
[33:05] Speaker 1: He just spun off of it, wrapped around the center,
[33:08] Speaker 1: and made the play all by himself. These Eagles defensive
[33:11] Speaker 1: tackles are no joke, and they made the Commander's offensive
[33:14] Speaker 1: line look awful. Which is probably a good segue into
[33:24] Speaker 1: talking about Commander's Cowboys, because I don't know what Washington
[33:28] Speaker 1: can do to help out Jaden Daniels. Their offensive line...
[33:32] Speaker 1: might be the worst one that we're going to talk
[33:34] Speaker 1: about today, and that is a low bar. Yeah, so
[33:37] Speaker 1: they do bring Campbell as a five-man rush at the
[33:39] Speaker 1: top of the screen, and they're just late on the
[33:41] Speaker 1: kick out there, Coleman.
[33:43] Speaker 3: And as a quarterback, you're feeling that pressure all day,
[33:45] Speaker 3: that speeding up your internal clock.
[33:48] Speaker 2: So I was looking into the numbers, and obviously I
[33:50] Speaker 2: saw that the offensive line didn't play great, but I
[33:52] Speaker 2: always like to sort of dive a little bit deeper, right?
[33:54] Speaker 2: Jaden was holding onto the ball for a long time,
[33:57] Speaker 2: 3.41 time to throw. I feel like he just didn't
[33:59] Speaker 2: really trust the game as it was coming to him.
[34:01] Speaker 2: There were There was one play in particular that I
[34:03] Speaker 2: watched where he had all of his receivers to one
[34:06] Speaker 2: side and he had so much green grass to just
[34:09] Speaker 2: run and scramble and he didn't take it because I
[34:11] Speaker 2: just think there's this overall hesitancy with him behind that
[34:14] Speaker 2: offensive line. 3.2 average separation at the throw for the
[34:19] Speaker 2: receivers and a 14.7 tight window.
[34:22] Speaker 3: Throws in week one. They're not great.
[34:24] Speaker 2: They're like bottom 10, 12 in the NFL last week,
[34:27] Speaker 2: but it's not like it was dead last. It's not
[34:29] Speaker 2: like it was horrendous or anything like that. The main takeaway, though, Brett, is, yeah,
[34:34] Speaker 2: the offensive line didn't play well, but specifically, the Eagles
[34:39] Speaker 2: did not care about the commander's run game at all.
[34:43] Speaker 2: They basically said, sure, okay, try to run the ball.
[34:47] Speaker 2: And there were multiple times where I'm watching Jaden Daniels
[34:50] Speaker 2: drop back, and even when there's play action involved, even
[34:55] Speaker 2: when there's some misdirection, even when they have a threat
[34:57] Speaker 2: to run the ball out of the backfield, the Eagles.
[34:59] Speaker 3: Were like, dad, don't care. We'll drop seven. We'll drop eight.
[35:04] Speaker 3: If you want to run the ball, go ahead.
[35:05] Speaker 4: Try.
[35:06] Speaker 2: We don't respect your run game. But I wonder how
[35:09] Speaker 2: much other teams, like will the Cowboys and will teams
[35:12] Speaker 2: moving forward, not respect the commander's run game until they
[35:17] Speaker 2: really prove that.
[35:19] Speaker 3: They have to.
[35:20] Speaker 2: If you don't have a run game or a run threat,
[35:23] Speaker 2: it makes it so much easier for teams to really
[35:25] Speaker 2: cover you. And that was actually what ended up being
[35:27] Speaker 2: my main takeaway for the commanders is.
[35:29] Speaker 1: They got to run the ball back. And, you know,
[35:31] Speaker 1: failing that, if you can't get through the Cowboys defensive line,
[35:34] Speaker 1: you should at least be able to go around the
[35:36] Speaker 1: Cowboys defensive line. We saw the Giants do that brilliantly
[35:39] Speaker 1: in week one, just hammering the flats over and over
[35:42] Speaker 1: and over again. Chris Collinsworth was like apoplectic during the
[35:46] Speaker 1: broadcast about it. He's like, how are you guys not
[35:48] Speaker 1: covering this? And we actually had some really good sound
[35:51] Speaker 1: from Shoddy after that game because he was so frustrated.
[35:56] Speaker 4: One other thing, not an excuse, guys. We did not
[35:58] Speaker 4: play well. We don't push three different times to the
[36:00] Speaker 4: fucking flat route. Excuse my language. Those are going to happen.
[36:03] Speaker 1: So clearly Shoddy none too pleased there. And I believe
[36:06] Speaker 1: I found the exact play that he was referring to.
[36:09] Speaker 1: This was down in the red zone. It's a second
[36:12] Speaker 1: and very long. And the Cowboys are in a coverage
[36:15] Speaker 1: here that the Fangio world calls cover nine. Why do
[36:18] Speaker 1: they call it cover nine instead of cover three? I'm
[36:20] Speaker 1: not entirely sure. I bet there's a reason that goes
[36:23] Speaker 1: back 40 years. I just don't know what that reason is,
[36:25] Speaker 1: but they call it cover nine. It's basically just a
[36:29] Speaker 1: three deep zone, four underneath, very similar to what we're
[36:33] Speaker 1: all used to here. But there is a little adjustment
[36:36] Speaker 1: that they call a sight call in the Fangio world,
[36:40] Speaker 1: where if the running back is what's known as fast
[36:42] Speaker 1: to the flat, meaning he's not just doing a little
[36:45] Speaker 1: like check release here. He's not giving a chip and
[36:48] Speaker 1: then leaking out. Like if he is immediately releasing to
[36:52] Speaker 1: the flat, then it's the safety's responsibility to push to
[36:56] Speaker 1: the flat and take that away. If the running back
[36:59] Speaker 1: is slow to the flat, then it's the linebacker. And
[37:02] Speaker 1: so because this running back was fast to the flat,
[37:04] Speaker 1: you actually see the safety, you know, point to him
[37:07] Speaker 1: like he's expecting the linebacker to go with him. But
[37:10] Speaker 1: if you're playing this site call here, it's actually the
[37:14] Speaker 1: safety's responsibility. He realizes it way too late. Running back
[37:17] Speaker 1: gets an easy catch and run, sets up a third
[37:20] Speaker 1: and very short. And then they scored very soon after that, again,
[37:24] Speaker 1: in the flats. Entirely different coverage. This one actually was
[37:27] Speaker 1: on Barham. He should have been pushing to the flat
[37:30] Speaker 1: there and just lollygagged through it. But you can see
[37:33] Speaker 1: why Schottenheimer was so frustrated and why I'm sure Christian
[37:36] Speaker 1: Parker was super frustrated is because the Eagles cover this
[37:40] Speaker 1: 10 times out of 10. Because they understand that the
[37:43] Speaker 1: running back's release is going to change the responsibility between
[37:46] Speaker 1: the linebacker and the safety. The Cowboys are still brand
[37:48] Speaker 1: new at this. It's a very new system for them.
[37:51] Speaker 1: You have players, especially Barham, who is a rookie. It's
[37:53] Speaker 1: his first ever game. I do believe they will get
[37:57] Speaker 1: this corrected. Even the Eagles, when Fangio first started consulting
[38:02] Speaker 1: with them, they were kind of out of sorts at
[38:05] Speaker 1: first when they started running all this stuff. That was
[38:06] Speaker 1: years ago at this point. But I have to believe
[38:10] Speaker 1: that a mistake... this minor is going to be fixed
[38:14] Speaker 1: in very short order. It probably already has been in
[38:17] Speaker 1: the meetings that they've had since this game. But I
[38:19] Speaker 1: just wanted to explain why Shoddy was so beside himself
[38:24] Speaker 1: because this is just like cover nine 101 and they
[38:28] Speaker 1: failed in their first game.
[38:30] Speaker 2: You could tell he was very frustrated, but he was
[38:33] Speaker 2: trying to bite his tongue a little bit.
[38:34] Speaker 4: You know, this is a humbling business and we got
[38:36] Speaker 4: humbled tonight.
[38:37] Speaker 2: I think it's a reminder for uh everybody myself included
[38:40] Speaker 2: as as a somebody who loves the draft and you
[38:43] Speaker 2: know when these rookies get selected these teams you can't
[38:45] Speaker 2: wait to see them out there and playing it takes
[38:48] Speaker 2: time it really does take time for these guys to
[38:50] Speaker 2: be able to do everything that they need to do and.
[38:53] Speaker 4: We have to coach the young players better but when
[38:55] Speaker 4: you play young players it's uh it's it's it's part
[38:58] Speaker 4: of the deal and they need to learn quickly.
[39:01] Speaker 2: We got to talk about the new york giants and
[39:02] Speaker 2: the Los Angeles Rams, really for two extremely different reasons, right?
[39:06] Speaker 2: The Giants are coming off what I think we on
[39:10] Speaker 2: this show have to call the biggest upset that we
[39:13] Speaker 2: had last week because we picked the Cowboys as our
[39:16] Speaker 2: 10 confidence game last week when we were doing our
[39:19] Speaker 2: game picks and we thought that the Cowboys were going
[39:21] Speaker 2: to win that game.
[39:22] Speaker 3: Obviously, the New York Giants end up winning this.
[39:23] Speaker 2: Game, but they're traveling to LA now, cross country, to
[39:27] Speaker 2: take on a Rams team that hard to look worse. Honestly,
[39:31] Speaker 2: just given everything that the Rams were, I mean, Stafford
[39:35] Speaker 2: had a negative 0.52 EPA per play on his dropbacks
[39:39] Speaker 2: versus San Francisco in week one.
[39:40] Speaker 3: That was his worst in a.
[39:43] Speaker 2: Single game since 2016. Nothing was working for the Rams,
[39:48] Speaker 2: not only just to the Super Bowl standard that everybody
[39:51] Speaker 2: has for them, just from going out there week one
[39:55] Speaker 2: and kind of doing your thing, making sure that you're
[39:57] Speaker 2: putting your best foot forward, it was not there for them.
[39:59] Speaker 2: So we're going to talk about both of these teams
[40:01] Speaker 2: pretty well, but what do you think about the Giants
[40:03] Speaker 2: coming off of that big win, now facing the Rams?
[40:06] Speaker 3: What's sort of the area that you want to preview
[40:08] Speaker 3: here for this one?
[40:09] Speaker 1: It was a perfect plan, right? Nagy and Roman together,
[40:13] Speaker 1: apparently a double negative makes a positive, I.
[40:15] Speaker 3: Guess, but Maybe they just needed each other all along.
[40:19] Speaker 1: I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I've been traumatized by both of
[40:22] Speaker 1: them too.
[40:22] Speaker 3: Veterans. Veteran coaching staff, Brett.
[40:26] Speaker 1: We'll call it that. Knowledge.
[40:28] Speaker 3: Wisdom.
[40:30] Speaker 1: But it worked. Again, I'm being kind of a dick
[40:34] Speaker 1: about it, but it worked. They had a really good plan.
[40:39] Speaker 1: And the fact that their entire plan was, hey, let's
[40:41] Speaker 1: not go backwards, that was effective. They had seven possessions
[40:44] Speaker 1: in this game. In the last two quarters, they had, what,
[40:49] Speaker 1: 22 and a half minutes time of possession out of 30? Like,
[40:51] Speaker 1: it was suffocating. So it was a great plan by them.
[40:55] Speaker 1: The run game wasn't particularly explosive, but it was effective.
[40:59] Speaker 1: They had one of the highest success rates across the NFL,
[41:02] Speaker 1: while also having one of the lowest stuff rates across
[41:04] Speaker 1: the NFL. And if you're just consistently getting four, four
[41:07] Speaker 1: and a half yards over and over and over again, well,
[41:09] Speaker 1: you do that three times in a row, you got
[41:11] Speaker 1: a first down. Then you do that four times in
[41:13] Speaker 1: a row, you're in the red zone.
[41:14] Speaker 2: And on the opening drive of the season, the Giants
[41:17] Speaker 2: drive it down the field and they have the lead
[41:19] Speaker 2: on the Cowboys.
[41:20] Speaker 1: To me, it was a perfectly executed ball control game plan.
[41:24] Speaker 1: I thought Jackson Dart was awesome in this game. Didn't
[41:27] Speaker 1: have to make the Josh Allen type of throws, but
[41:30] Speaker 1: did make the throws that he was supposed to make
[41:32] Speaker 1: and was on point, was accurate, was in rhythm, all
[41:34] Speaker 1: the platitudes we love to talk about. They were just really,
[41:38] Speaker 1: really effective and they took advantage of a Cowboys defense
[41:41] Speaker 1: and in their first game in a new system that
[41:43] Speaker 1: wasn't pushing to the flat three times in four plays.
[41:47] Speaker 4: We don't push three different times to the fucking flat route,
[41:49] Speaker 4: excuse my language.
[41:50] Speaker 1: And I'll tell you what, if it's not broke, don't
[41:51] Speaker 1: fix it.
[41:52] Speaker 2: I thought the Giants obviously did a great job of
[41:54] Speaker 2: managing the game the way that they needed to and
[41:56] Speaker 2: not shooting themselves in the foot, right? And if there's
[41:59] Speaker 2: a critique that I had of Jackson Dart when he
[42:01] Speaker 2: was coming out of Ole Miss, it was sure, I
[42:03] Speaker 2: recognized the great plays, but I felt like there were
[42:05] Speaker 2: too many plays where He was hurting the offense or
[42:08] Speaker 2: certainly hurting himself and his cause to move the ball
[42:10] Speaker 2: down the field.
[42:10] Speaker 3: And it looked like a lot more methodical.
[42:12] Speaker 2: So I loved the sort of progression of even what
[42:15] Speaker 2: Jackson Dart was able to do. If you want to
[42:17] Speaker 2: call it an easy day at the office, fine. But
[42:19] Speaker 2: he helped make it an easy day at the office.
[42:23] Speaker 2: On the Rams side of things. I do think that
[42:26] Speaker 2: the pendulum has to swing back in the other direction.
[42:28] Speaker 2: There's a lot of things that could have gone wrong
[42:30] Speaker 2: here for the Rams. We talked at the very top
[42:32] Speaker 2: of the show of just the epidemic that was missed
[42:35] Speaker 2: tackles and missed execution with week one. And we sort
[42:38] Speaker 2: of related it to maybe lack of preseason reps being
[42:42] Speaker 2: a reason why. The Rams don't play any of their
[42:44] Speaker 2: starters in the preseason. It's just not the McVay way.
[42:47] Speaker 2: And you tie that into... I'm trying not to be
[42:51] Speaker 2: too hindsight with this, but I always kind of felt
[42:53] Speaker 2: like a very strange travel plan for them. Going all
[43:01] Speaker 2: the way across the world to play this game and
[43:04] Speaker 2: not adjusting the body clocks at all whatsoever. I mean,
[43:06] Speaker 2: this team did not look physically or mentally sharp for
[43:09] Speaker 2: this game. And I have to feel is that within
[43:13] Speaker 2: a much more regular environment for them, it doesn't look
[43:17] Speaker 2: nearly as bad as it did in week one. But
[43:21] Speaker 2: The area I'm most curious to see what is different
[43:26] Speaker 2: in Week 2 from Week 1 when it comes to
[43:28] Speaker 2: Los Angeles Rams is how they play defense, specifically how
[43:31] Speaker 2: they cover. You trade for Trent McDuffie. You sign Jalen Watson.
[43:35] Speaker 2: These guys are man coverage type of defenders. Trent McDuffie
[43:39] Speaker 2: played 25.7% of his coverage in man in Week 1.
[43:43] Speaker 2: Fourth lowest single game rate of his career. Like he's
[43:47] Speaker 2: a man coverage type of corner, or certainly was when
[43:49] Speaker 2: he was with the Kansas City Chiefs.
[43:50] Speaker 3: They just didn't ask him to do that.
[43:52] Speaker 2: I mean, he's played man on 43.5% of his coverage
[43:55] Speaker 2: snaps since entering the league in 2022. That's the ninth
[43:59] Speaker 2: highest amongst all defensive backs with over a thousand coverage
[44:01] Speaker 2: snaps during that span. So I feel as though they
[44:05] Speaker 2: acquire these man coverage defenders and they played it some,
[44:08] Speaker 2: they played it 19%, but they really didn't play it much.
[44:12] Speaker 2: And it goes back to, is this a little bit,
[44:14] Speaker 2: like the Colts conversation that we had earlier. Are you
[44:18] Speaker 2: not playing your players to their strengths as a defense
[44:21] Speaker 2: as a whole? Now, I think there are some things
[44:24] Speaker 2: that you could look at with this game with context
[44:27] Speaker 2: that could tell you that things might look different in
[44:30] Speaker 2: week two. One, Shanahan does do a lot of motion stuff.
[44:35] Speaker 2: And when you play man, like you referenced earlier in
[44:37] Speaker 2: the show, you kind of give away that you're playing
[44:40] Speaker 2: man when there's all this motion and Brock Purdy gets
[44:43] Speaker 2: a a better look at what the defense is going
[44:45] Speaker 2: to be post-snap if you have that sort of reaction
[44:48] Speaker 2: to guys who are in motion when they're in man coverage.
[44:50] Speaker 3: There's a little bit of that.
[44:51] Speaker 2: But I will say this. Mike Evans was a man
[44:54] Speaker 2: coverage neutralizer in that game. I went back and I
[44:57] Speaker 2: watched the man coverage reps that they tried to play
[45:00] Speaker 2: in that game. And a lot of times Mike Evans
[45:02] Speaker 2: was in the slot for that. They couldn't handle it.
[45:05] Speaker 2: No matter who was playing in the slot, they did
[45:07] Speaker 2: not have the answers for Mike Evans when they were
[45:10] Speaker 2: playing in man coverage. So do the Giants have their version.
[45:13] Speaker 3: Of Mike Evans? Is it Malik Namers? Is it Malachi Fields?
[45:17] Speaker 3: Is it Isaiah Likely?
[45:18] Speaker 2: Do they have that version of Mike Evans to attack
[45:21] Speaker 2: them from sort of that big, strong slot type of
[45:24] Speaker 2: a wide receiver archetype? I'm very curious. So I think
[45:28] Speaker 2: that Stafford will bounce back. The Rams offensive line was
[45:31] Speaker 2: still moving people off the ball in.
[45:33] Speaker 3: The power run game.
[45:33] Speaker 2: I think those things will be consistent. But what does
[45:36] Speaker 2: the defense look like? I'm not really worried about it
[45:38] Speaker 2: without Miles Garrett, to be honest with you.
[45:39] Speaker 3: I'm not. The defensive line was already.
[45:41] Speaker 1: Oh, no, they have three other good pass rushers. What
[45:44] Speaker 1: are they going to do? That's the thing.
[45:47] Speaker 2: The whole point of conversation was they added Miles Garrett
[45:49] Speaker 2: to this defense.
[45:50] Speaker 3: Well, guess what?
[45:50] Speaker 2: Now they still have this defense, right? So it's still
[45:53] Speaker 2: that defense. But what does the coverage look like and
[45:55] Speaker 2: how different is it from week one? Very curious to
[45:57] Speaker 2: see what that looks like for the Rams.
[45:59] Speaker 1: I will say Francis Malinoa. No pressures allowed on 36
[46:03] Speaker 1: pass blocking snaps. Going up against Kobe Turner and Braden Fisk.
[46:06] Speaker 1: Super intriguing matchup. And you also brought up Malachi Fields.
[46:09] Speaker 1: I'm going to take my opportunity. Do you watch him
[46:12] Speaker 1: as a run blocker?
[46:13] Speaker 3: Oh, I watched him as a run blocker when he
[46:14] Speaker 3: was at Notre Dame, too.
[46:16] Speaker 1: So he's a new father. Shout out to Malachi. He's
[46:19] Speaker 1: a new father and immediately got dad strength because, oh
[46:22] Speaker 1: my God, he was burying people.
[46:24] Speaker 2: I thought you were saying that because he sunned people
[46:26] Speaker 2: in the run game.
[46:28] Speaker 1: Yeah, he just picked up a bunch of extra kids
[46:30] Speaker 1: in week one.
[46:33] Speaker 3: We got one more game ball.
[46:35] Speaker 1: His first victory is at New York Giants.
[46:37] Speaker 2: Yes! Okay, we're wrapping up the show here, getting to
[46:45] Speaker 2: you guys, the people, because you guys.
[46:47] Speaker 3: Have been unbelievable.
[46:48] Speaker 2: Since we started this show, since we first announced that
[46:50] Speaker 2: we were doing it, you guys have been such a
[46:52] Speaker 2: big part of all the topics that we put together.
[46:55] Speaker 2: We try to take so many of your suggestions, and
[46:58] Speaker 2: we ask for questions here at the end of the show. And, Brett,
[47:02] Speaker 2: I think that, once again, we got like 250 responses.
[47:05] Speaker 2: So you guys are so involved, and we want to
[47:07] Speaker 2: get you guys as involved as possible. We might even
[47:09] Speaker 2: have to do our own separate podcast. q and a
[47:11] Speaker 2: show at some point but we love you guys thank
[47:13] Speaker 2: you so much for wanting to get in on the
[47:15] Speaker 2: show we really appreciate it we will answer a couple
[47:18] Speaker 2: here to round us out real chris yankee as the
[47:21] Speaker 2: first one and i think it's one that a lot
[47:23] Speaker 2: of people want to know the answer to which outcomes
[47:25] Speaker 2: in week one are liars and which ones are you
[47:29] Speaker 2: buying i am buying brett the ravens buying their dominance
[47:35] Speaker 2: and buying the new offense with Declan Doyle, how much
[47:38] Speaker 2: they were able to just move the ball at will
[47:40] Speaker 2: against the Indianapolis Colts. I'm buying them being a great team.
[47:43] Speaker 2: I'm buying the Bears and I'm buying the Bears good
[47:46] Speaker 2: and bad. I'm buying that the Bears are going to
[47:49] Speaker 2: score a crap ton of points this year. And I'm
[47:52] Speaker 2: also buying the fact that they are indeed going to
[47:55] Speaker 2: give up a lot of points this year. So scoring 59,
[47:57] Speaker 2: I don't know if they're going to score 59 every week,
[47:59] Speaker 2: but scoring a lot of points every week. but also
[48:02] Speaker 2: giving up a good amount of yards and points every week.
[48:05] Speaker 2: It makes the Bears much watch TV every single week,
[48:08] Speaker 2: no matter what. And I'm also buying the Cincinnati Bengals.
[48:11] Speaker 2: And specifically with the Cincinnati Bengals, I am buying how
[48:13] Speaker 2: much better they are in both trenches. We talked about
[48:16] Speaker 2: this in the season preview show, and it absolutely showed
[48:18] Speaker 2: up week one. That offensive line looked great. Amarius Mims
[48:21] Speaker 2: looked like a future all-pro. Dexter Lawrence's presence was well
[48:24] Speaker 2: worth it in the middle of that defense. And the
[48:26] Speaker 2: new speed additions they have on the edge, ugh.
[48:29] Speaker 3: Looked beautiful.
[48:29] Speaker 2: So I'm buying those three teams, the Ravens, the Bears,
[48:32] Speaker 2: and the Bengals.
[48:32] Speaker 3: What teams are you buying from week one?
[48:35] Speaker 1: I'm a little bit more hesitant both ways. So I
[48:38] Speaker 1: have fewer that I'm like more definitive on. But I
[48:42] Speaker 1: will say I'm buying the Chiefs because this is what
[48:44] Speaker 1: they look like when they have a real run game.
[48:48] Speaker 1: And the passing game wasn't even good. And they were
[48:50] Speaker 1: still up by like three scores in the second half.
[48:53] Speaker 1: It's crazy. So I'm buying the Chiefs. I'm buying that defense.
[48:55] Speaker 1: I'm buying the run game. And I'm buying the 49ers.
[48:58] Speaker 1: Because they're healthy for now, and I always feel good about,
[49:00] Speaker 1: you know, believing in the 49ers when they have at
[49:03] Speaker 1: least 80% of their guys, which they do. As far
[49:06] Speaker 1: as liars, mine are like positives, compliments, I guess, even.
[49:13] Speaker 1: I think the Bucs are live. Again, coward.
[49:17] Speaker 3: Whoa, whoa, I'm being nice to you.
[49:19] Speaker 2: Well, I didn't know you were going to say the Bucs.
[49:22] Speaker 2: Now you're a man of integrity. Now you're a man
[49:24] Speaker 2: who just tells the truth, you know, when nobody else will.
[49:27] Speaker 1: Yeah, now I love it. How often are they going
[49:29] Speaker 1: to turn the ball over four times in a game?
[49:31] Speaker 3: I mean, hopefully once.
[49:34] Speaker 1: I think they're going to be fine. They got within
[49:36] Speaker 1: six points, even with four turnovers. They're going to be fine.
[49:40] Speaker 1: And then as for the panic button about, you know,
[49:42] Speaker 1: Reuben Bain, dude, Amarius Mims is going to do that
[49:45] Speaker 1: to a lot of people this year.
[49:46] Speaker 3: I agree.
[49:46] Speaker 1: People need to understand how good Amarius Mims not just
[49:50] Speaker 1: could be but is now. Like, Cappy learned how to putt.
[49:55] Speaker 1: He's awesome. And then I also have the Texans as
[49:58] Speaker 1: liars in a positive way. They're not going to give
[50:00] Speaker 1: up 36 points to very many people. Josh Allen is
[50:03] Speaker 1: one of, I don't know, four quarterbacks on planet Earth
[50:07] Speaker 1: that I think could do that to them. as far
[50:09] Speaker 1: as the insane throws that he made to put up
[50:11] Speaker 1: those points, I think they're going to be fine. You know,
[50:15] Speaker 1: the success rate that they allowed against Buffalo was totally normal.
[50:18] Speaker 1: So Houston, and honestly, if I'm a Texans fan, well,
[50:22] Speaker 1: I am a Texans fan. I'm coming out of that
[50:24] Speaker 1: loss as positively as I possibly can. I'm treating it like,
[50:27] Speaker 1: you know, an SEC team losing to Alabama in the
[50:29] Speaker 1: mid 2010s. They put up yards. They were good in
[50:33] Speaker 1: the red zone. It's like, that's a quality loss right there.
[50:38] Speaker 2: Yeah. I think that my liars, I'm more pointing out
[50:41] Speaker 2: sort of their opponent. Like I think the Jets overall
[50:44] Speaker 2: are liars because I think the Titans were terrible. So
[50:47] Speaker 2: I don't know if it's going to look that good
[50:49] Speaker 2: for them moving forward.
[50:50] Speaker 3: We shall see.
[50:51] Speaker 2: I think the same thing about the Giants. The Cowboys
[50:52] Speaker 2: just played a horrendous game. So I thought the Giants
[50:55] Speaker 2: were great. I'm not so sure it's going to look
[50:58] Speaker 2: that good every single week. I'm not trying to take
[51:00] Speaker 2: everything away from the Giants like we talked about in
[51:02] Speaker 2: the preview. But I don't think it's going to look
[51:04] Speaker 2: quite like that every single week.
[51:05] Speaker 3: And then the Rams.
[51:06] Speaker 2: So, interestingly, I have two teams on this list that
[51:08] Speaker 2: play each other this week with the Rams and the Giants.
[51:11] Speaker 2: The Giants, I don't know if it's going to look
[51:12] Speaker 2: as good as it looked in Week 1. The Rams,
[51:14] Speaker 2: it cannot look as bad as it looked in Week 1. So,
[51:17] Speaker 2: we'll actually get to see what the result of that is.
[51:19] Speaker 1: So, there we go.
[51:20] Speaker 3: That's our first question.
[51:21] Speaker 2: Our second question, this one's from Mike Cash, and I
[51:24] Speaker 2: think a lot of people are wanting to know the
[51:25] Speaker 2: answer to this one.
[51:26] Speaker 3: The Jets rolled out a 0-5 personnel... On Sunday?
[51:33] Speaker 1: Sure, why not?
[51:35] Speaker 2: With five tight ends on the field, has the love
[51:38] Speaker 2: of tight ends gone too far, Brett?
[51:40] Speaker 3: How do we feel about this one?
[51:42] Speaker 5: In fact, I had one of our analyst guys see,
[51:45] Speaker 5: has this been, has this happened before? Because I'm, I
[51:48] Speaker 5: was thinking maybe there wasn't, and that's not why we
[51:50] Speaker 5: did it. It was just, we got five good tight ends.
[51:53] Speaker 5: So he went back to, he went back 20 years
[51:55] Speaker 5: and he couldn't find any evidence of, of 05 personnel.
[51:59] Speaker 5: So I'm, I like it for those tight ends.
[52:03] Speaker 1: I'm still hesitant to call it 05 personnel because like
[52:06] Speaker 1: technically one of them was a fullback. So if we're
[52:09] Speaker 1: counting that as more of like a running back than
[52:11] Speaker 1: a tight, like maybe it's 14, but like the most
[52:15] Speaker 1: hilarious 14 personnel group you've ever seen.
[52:18] Speaker 3: Well, it ended up being, was it, was it, was
[52:21] Speaker 3: it 05 personnel?
[52:22] Speaker 2: Cause technically they were set up in I don't even
[52:26] Speaker 2: know what to call it, like a jumbo pony package because.
[52:28] Speaker 1: There were three running backs.
[52:30] Speaker 3: It was like 1920s. Yeah, it was.
[52:33] Speaker 2: And then pre-snap, they moved into what was actually, I think,
[52:36] Speaker 2: more of a 14 personnel.
[52:38] Speaker 1: An alert for future weeks on that. Kenyon Sadiq was
[52:40] Speaker 1: in the backfield. He runs 4-4.
[52:42] Speaker 2: Give him a carry. He got a carry in this game,
[52:45] Speaker 2: I think. And it wasn't even that play. Did he?
[52:47] Speaker 3: But I think he did get a carry in that game.
[52:49] Speaker 1: I think we're going to see more of that. I
[52:50] Speaker 1: think they just wanted to see how defenses responded to it, honestly.
[52:53] Speaker 1: So it was open. I should note that it was open.
[52:56] Speaker 1: Mason Taylor, like the throw was there for the touchdown.
[52:58] Speaker 1: Gino didn't take it, but like the play worked. It
[53:01] Speaker 1: did work.
[53:01] Speaker 3: It absolutely worked.
[53:03] Speaker 2: So in 2025, it was the highest rate of two
[53:06] Speaker 2: tight end sets on average, more so than any other
[53:09] Speaker 2: year in the NGS era at 33.2%. And week one,
[53:13] Speaker 2: par for the course, league average of 33%. So we
[53:14] Speaker 2: were right there with that heavy tight end usage. Has
[53:17] Speaker 2: it gone too far?
[53:20] Speaker 3: No, of course not.
[53:21] Speaker 2: No, it can't go far enough. What about 0-6 personnel?
[53:26] Speaker 2: Take one of the offensive linemen off the field.
[53:27] Speaker 3: Get another tight end in.
[53:29] Speaker 1: Jackson Hawes, baby. He's a tackle.
[53:31] Speaker 3: He is a tackle. And you never know what's going
[53:33] Speaker 3: to happen.
[53:34] Speaker 2: You never know what's going to happen when he's on
[53:36] Speaker 2: the field. It's time for our game picks. A little
[53:38] Speaker 2: bit of a confidence flare here for week two. We
[53:41] Speaker 2: had a lot of fun doing this for the first
[53:43] Speaker 2: time in week one. So what we're doing is we're
[53:45] Speaker 2: picking our 10 favorite games. We're not only picking the game,
[53:49] Speaker 2: but then we're also picking a spot of how much
[53:52] Speaker 2: confidence we have.
[53:53] Speaker 3: We're keeping score.
[53:54] Speaker 2: We're getting points for, hey, if we call this game
[53:56] Speaker 2: and they were our most confident game, we're getting more points.
[53:58] Speaker 2: Or if they were the least confident game, getting a
[54:00] Speaker 2: little bit less. So what we're going to do is
[54:02] Speaker 2: we're going to keep score throughout the entire year. And Brett,
[54:06] Speaker 2: I do have your score from last week. I know
[54:09] Speaker 2: you have mine. We have not revealed this to each
[54:11] Speaker 2: other yet. So you didn't get your 10 spot game.
[54:15] Speaker 2: You picked the Cowboys who went against the Giants, which
[54:17] Speaker 2: so did I. So you didn't get your top 10.
[54:19] Speaker 2: points there with the 10 points you missed that game
[54:22] Speaker 2: and then you missed your least confident game and then
[54:24] Speaker 2: your second least confidence game so you did pretty good
[54:27] Speaker 2: here last week you got 42 total points when it
[54:30] Speaker 2: came to picking the correct team that won the game
[54:33] Speaker 2: and then also where you had them in the confidence
[54:35] Speaker 2: but uh did I do better that's the question because
[54:38] Speaker 2: you have you have my final.
[54:39] Speaker 3: Score in the envelope how did I do last week.
[54:43] Speaker 1: So your score starts with a four okay great Good start.
[54:47] Speaker 1: But it ends with a zero, baby.
[54:49] Speaker 3: Let's go. Week one in the books. Okay. All right.
[54:54] Speaker 3: Calm down. Calm down. It's one week. It is one week.
[54:56] Speaker 2: But what we're going to do is we're going to
[54:59] Speaker 2: keep a tally and score. So Brett is up two
[55:02] Speaker 2: points on me right now. We're not like restarting with
[55:05] Speaker 2: every single week. So he is up two. So if
[55:07] Speaker 2: he's up two this week and let's say you get
[55:09] Speaker 2: eight points next week, then you're going to be up
[55:12] Speaker 2: 10 points on me. on the season so we're going
[55:14] Speaker 2: to keep a score and it's going to be cumulative
[55:16] Speaker 2: that way because if one of us gets way ahead
[55:18] Speaker 2: on the scoreboard and we get to like week 17
[55:19] Speaker 2: week 18 it could be a lot of fun because
[55:21] Speaker 2: one of us has to make some strong cases for
[55:24] Speaker 2: some teams that might not win so it's it's a
[55:27] Speaker 2: way where we're going to have fun here picking these
[55:29] Speaker 2: games previewing these games but also the confidence meter I
[55:32] Speaker 2: think throws a lot of fun so if you guys
[55:34] Speaker 2: want to follow along and participate on your own at
[55:36] Speaker 2: home Feel free to do so. Fire them off in
[55:38] Speaker 2: the comments section. We'll take a look at it. We'll
[55:40] Speaker 2: go back and forth and talk with you guys about
[55:42] Speaker 2: your picks. But, Brett, the first game that we're talking
[55:43] Speaker 2: about is Thursday Night Football. Let's get into it here.
[55:46] Speaker 2: Lions traveling to Buffalo to take on the Buffalo Bills.
[55:51] Speaker 3: Who do you have winning? And where is it in
[55:53] Speaker 3: the confidence meter for you?
[55:56] Speaker 1: I have Bills over Lions for one.
[55:59] Speaker 2: Okay.
[56:00] Speaker 1: It is my confidence level of one.
[56:03] Speaker 3: Okay, okay.
[56:04] Speaker 1: It's a Thursday game. Weird stuff happens on Thursdays. I
[56:07] Speaker 1: think the Lions are a genuinely good team. Now you're
[56:09] Speaker 1: opening a new stadium. I think there's going to be
[56:11] Speaker 1: a ton of juice in the building. But just looking
[56:15] Speaker 1: at all the firepower the Lions have, this is kind
[56:17] Speaker 1: of a tough matchup for anybody to have. Even though
[56:20] Speaker 1: the Lions did have to scratch and claw and fight
[56:23] Speaker 1: to beat New Orleans last week, this is just the
[56:25] Speaker 1: kind of game that could really go sideways. And so
[56:29] Speaker 1: while I do think the Bills are going to win,
[56:30] Speaker 1: just because Josh Allen is an absolute superhuman, And he's
[56:34] Speaker 1: one of the only quarterbacks who I think could have
[56:35] Speaker 1: beat the Texans last week. I'm not super confident either way,
[56:40] Speaker 1: so I'm leaving it at my one spot.
[56:42] Speaker 3: Yeah, understandable.
[56:44] Speaker 2: I think you might be smart having them at the one,
[56:46] Speaker 2: given it's Thursday Night Football and it's two really good teams.
[56:49] Speaker 2: I also have the Bills winning, but I have this
[56:51] Speaker 2: in my four spot. So a little bit higher than
[56:54] Speaker 2: you on the rankings and a little bit more confident
[56:56] Speaker 2: in the Bills. And simply put, I think you guys
[56:58] Speaker 2: are going to hear a theme from my game picks.
[57:00] Speaker 2: When the good quarterbacks are playing good right out of
[57:02] Speaker 2: the gate, it's hard for me to bet against them.
[57:04] Speaker 2: Josh Allen was unbelievable against the Houston Texans. You and
[57:07] Speaker 2: I talked about this in the reaction show. We highlighted
[57:10] Speaker 2: how much the Detroit Lions kind of want to play
[57:12] Speaker 2: man coverage. And man, if there's somebody with some arm
[57:15] Speaker 2: arrogance to really go after when you're not playing well
[57:18] Speaker 2: in man coverage, it's Josh Allen.
[57:20] Speaker 3: So I agree.
[57:21] Speaker 2: I think the juice is going to be flowing. You're
[57:23] Speaker 2: opening up the new stadium. Give me the bills in
[57:25] Speaker 2: this one and give me them at the four spot.
[57:28] Speaker 3: Saints at four.
[57:30] Speaker 2: Ravens, the next game we're talking about here. Who you
[57:32] Speaker 2: got winning this one, and where is it in the ranking?
[57:35] Speaker 1: I'm actually way more confident in this one. I went
[57:37] Speaker 1: Baltimore over New Orleans, and it's because if you look
[57:40] Speaker 1: at what Tyler Shuck did last week, again, all credit
[57:43] Speaker 1: to him for that late game comeback. You know, got
[57:46] Speaker 1: three touchdowns against all that man coverage from the Lions
[57:49] Speaker 1: in the red zone, but they really didn't start playing
[57:51] Speaker 1: man until they got to the red zone. And I
[57:54] Speaker 1: look at what Baltimore does defensively with Jesse Minter. he
[57:59] Speaker 1: not only calls a lot of zone coverage, he calls
[58:01] Speaker 1: a lot of like very, let's say tricky zone coverage,
[58:04] Speaker 1: a lot of rotations, a lot of I'm showing you this,
[58:06] Speaker 1: I'm giving you this. And Shuck really struggled against that
[58:09] Speaker 1: in the first half. That was actually something he also
[58:11] Speaker 1: struggled as a rookie against. And I just, I look
[58:14] Speaker 1: at a very potent offense that's going to put pressure
[58:17] Speaker 1: on you to score and a defense that likes to
[58:20] Speaker 1: use a lot of disguise, a lot of really kind
[58:22] Speaker 1: of fancy exotic pressure looks. I'm not super confident in
[58:26] Speaker 1: Shuck to be able to sort that out. I like
[58:27] Speaker 1: the Saints defensively. It's just this might be a game
[58:30] Speaker 1: that they win next year, not necessarily this year. So
[58:34] Speaker 1: I put that at my seven spot.
[58:36] Speaker 2: I'm a little higher than you on it, picking the
[58:38] Speaker 2: same team, but I had the Ravens winning, and they're
[58:40] Speaker 2: at the nine spot for me.
[58:41] Speaker 3: The nine spot feels.
[58:43] Speaker 2: Disrespectful given how Tyler Shuck and this team played in
[58:50] Speaker 2: the fourth quarter in overtime. But I echo everything that
[58:54] Speaker 2: you just said there. Tyler Shuck really struggled. And I
[58:57] Speaker 2: think just the chemistry with the wide receivers, the timing,
[59:00] Speaker 2: the everything was just a little off in that first half.
[59:02] Speaker 2: And that was heavy zone coverage stuff. Jesse Minter is
[59:05] Speaker 2: great at it. They understand when Tyler Shuck was playing well.
[59:08] Speaker 2: And I think they're going to do everything. that they
[59:10] Speaker 2: can to sort of not allow him to really be
[59:13] Speaker 2: able to read the field and just say, all right,
[59:16] Speaker 2: that guy's in man. It's just about me putting the
[59:19] Speaker 2: ball where it needs to go in tight windows. And
[59:22] Speaker 2: he's got the arm talent to do it. But when
[59:23] Speaker 2: you really got to continuously think, I think that's when
[59:26] Speaker 2: he was a little slow and a little hesitant to
[59:28] Speaker 2: get rid of the ball. Vikings at Bears. The Bears
[59:32] Speaker 2: coming off 59 points on the road in Carolina. The
[59:39] Speaker 2: Vikings have come back themselves.
[59:41] Speaker 3: It's Flores. It's, it's, It's Ben Johnson. What do we
[59:45] Speaker 3: think here? Who you got winning this game?
[59:47] Speaker 1: So Chicago scored 59 in a game. Minnesota scored 22
[59:50] Speaker 1: and a quarter. So this game is almost impossible to
[59:55] Speaker 1: figure out how it's going to go, especially because Flores
[59:58] Speaker 1: and Ben Johnson have a deep history against one another.
[1:00:01] Speaker 1: Johnson historically has been one of the only offensive minds
[1:00:04] Speaker 1: that really does a whole lot of anything against Flores.
[1:00:08] Speaker 1: I am picking the Bears in this game. I am
[1:00:10] Speaker 1: not super confident in it just because, you know, NFC
[1:00:13] Speaker 1: North shenanigans tend to happen, especially early in the season.
[1:00:17] Speaker 1: And when these two coordinators get together, they're always throwing
[1:00:20] Speaker 1: haymakers against each other. They do tend to get the
[1:00:22] Speaker 1: best of each other. It's a tough game to pick.
[1:00:25] Speaker 1: I'm going to go Bears just because I'm not 100%
[1:00:28] Speaker 1: certain who's going to be starting for the Vikings at quarterback.
[1:00:32] Speaker 1: As of recording this, we don't know.
[1:00:34] Speaker 5: And man.
[1:00:35] Speaker 1: 59 points. It'd be kind of weird to see them
[1:00:40] Speaker 1: put up that many points in week one and then
[1:00:42] Speaker 1: pick against them in week two.
[1:00:44] Speaker 3: Where do you have them in the ranking?
[1:00:46] Speaker 1: Two spots. Okay, man.
[1:00:49] Speaker 2: So we're getting the low confidence games out of the
[1:00:52] Speaker 2: way early for you. Again, I am picking the same team.
[1:00:56] Speaker 2: I'm just a lot more confident. And so this is
[1:00:59] Speaker 2: going to be very interesting if these teams win or
[1:01:01] Speaker 2: lose because we're picking the same teams. We're just very
[1:01:04] Speaker 2: different in the confidence meter. I have the Bears winning
[1:01:07] Speaker 2: at my seventh spot. I have a lot of faith
[1:01:10] Speaker 2: in what that offense showed us in week one, how
[1:01:14] Speaker 2: Caleb looked, how the ground game looked.
[1:01:17] Speaker 3: It was incredible.
[1:01:18] Speaker 2: And yes, the Vikings moved the ball really well and
[1:01:22] Speaker 2: had an incredible comeback. I'm not trying to take anything
[1:01:24] Speaker 2: away from them. Packers defense was rough, and more than that,
[1:01:28] Speaker 2: they really struggled to hold on to possession at all
[1:01:31] Speaker 2: whatsoever when it came to that second half. So even
[1:01:33] Speaker 2: though I have my questions on Chicago's defense as well,
[1:01:37] Speaker 2: coming off giving up 37 points to the Carolina Panthers.
[1:01:42] Speaker 2: I don't think there's going to be this lack of possession,
[1:01:46] Speaker 2: this lack of time of possession, this consistency that existed
[1:01:50] Speaker 2: with Green Bay when they faced off against Minnesota last week.
[1:01:53] Speaker 2: And I think that was a major catalyst for why
[1:01:56] Speaker 2: Minnesota was able to come back and look as good
[1:01:57] Speaker 2: as they did in the second half because Green Bay just,
[1:01:59] Speaker 2: I mean, they couldn't hold on to the football. There
[1:02:01] Speaker 2: was no possession for them at all whatsoever, no efficiency.
[1:02:04] Speaker 2: And I just don't think that's going to be the
[1:02:05] Speaker 2: case with Chicago. The Cincinnati Bengals. coming off a win
[1:02:09] Speaker 2: against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, traveling to Houston to take
[1:02:13] Speaker 2: on a Texans team that ain't.
[1:02:15] Speaker 3: Used to giving up 30-plus points.
[1:02:18] Speaker 2: And so you know they're going to be extremely motivated,
[1:02:20] Speaker 2: but the Bengals starting off the season really hot, and
[1:02:22] Speaker 2: they normally don't do that, so you know they want
[1:02:24] Speaker 2: to keep the momentum rolling.
[1:02:25] Speaker 3: Who you got winning this game?
[1:02:28] Speaker 1: So this is in my four spot. Okay. I'm taking
[1:02:32] Speaker 1: the Texans.
[1:02:33] Speaker 3: All right.
[1:02:34] Speaker 1: I'm still trying to figure out exactly what these two
[1:02:36] Speaker 1: teams are, right? Because the Bengals suddenly have a real defense.
[1:02:40] Speaker 1: They have a real pass rush, which helps out. And
[1:02:43] Speaker 1: the Texans suddenly have a real offense. So it's two
[1:02:45] Speaker 1: very evenly matched teams. And the fact that Houston's starting
[1:02:48] Speaker 1: out their season with Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, it's
[1:02:52] Speaker 1: about as difficult a start to a schedule as you
[1:02:54] Speaker 1: can have. Last week, the Texans' Bills was at my
[1:02:58] Speaker 1: one spot because I really wasn't sure who was going
[1:03:00] Speaker 1: to win. And the game came down to the wire.
[1:03:03] Speaker 1: I think this one's also going to come down to
[1:03:04] Speaker 1: the wire. I do think the Texans are going to
[1:03:05] Speaker 1: get the better of them just because I don't expect
[1:03:07] Speaker 1: their defense to give up 36 again. Joe Burrow is
[1:03:10] Speaker 1: capable of many things. There's a couple throws that Josh
[1:03:12] Speaker 1: Allen made in that game that I'm not even sure
[1:03:14] Speaker 1: if Joe could have done those. So I'm going to
[1:03:17] Speaker 1: go Houston. I'm only confident at the four spot, but
[1:03:21] Speaker 1: I do think they win.
[1:03:22] Speaker 2: I'll go opposite side of the coin here. We'll differ
[1:03:24] Speaker 2: for the first time on this show in week two.
[1:03:26] Speaker 2: I'm going to go Cincinnati Bengals, but I have them
[1:03:29] Speaker 2: in the one spot when it comes to confidence because
[1:03:31] Speaker 2: I really don't know who is going to... Whoa, come on.
[1:03:34] Speaker 2: Somebody's got to be in the one. You were just
[1:03:37] Speaker 2: saving that for no matter what. But I think this
[1:03:39] Speaker 2: game is going to be really, really tight. And I'm
[1:03:42] Speaker 2: taking the Bengals simply because I was really impressed with
[1:03:44] Speaker 2: how they were on the trenches, both offensively and defensively.
[1:03:47] Speaker 2: When you can play the way that you did with
[1:03:51] Speaker 2: Jamar Chase... 12 total receiving yards. You know that that's
[1:03:55] Speaker 2: probably not going to happen again. So you're going to
[1:03:57] Speaker 2: get Jamar involved a little bit more. I'll ride the
[1:03:59] Speaker 2: momentum here for the Cincinnati Bengals and I'll have them
[1:04:01] Speaker 2: winning this game, but I just have them at that
[1:04:03] Speaker 2: one spot.
[1:04:04] Speaker 3: Jags and the Broncos.
[1:04:06] Speaker 2: Two totally different week one performances. The Jags just blew
[1:04:10] Speaker 2: out the Cleveland Browns in a game that was never close.
[1:04:13] Speaker 2: And then the Broncos laying an egg on Monday Night
[1:04:17] Speaker 2: Football against the Kansas City Chiefs, what do we think
[1:04:20] Speaker 2: about this game here? Preseason, they tell you that, hey,
[1:04:23] Speaker 2: this is a premier game of Week 2, and I
[1:04:25] Speaker 2: think that it absolutely could be, but who do you
[1:04:27] Speaker 2: have winning and where are they in the confidence meter?
[1:04:29] Speaker 1: I am picking the Jaguars in this game, but I
[1:04:31] Speaker 1: do think it's going to be a tougher fight. We
[1:04:33] Speaker 1: looked at how much Bo Nix struggled against man coverage
[1:04:36] Speaker 1: against KC. Well, the Jags don't really play a lot
[1:04:39] Speaker 1: of man coverage. They do tend to favor zone. Anthony
[1:04:41] Speaker 1: Campanelli comes from both a Fangio and a Jeff Halfley
[1:04:46] Speaker 1: influence at the same time. So he calls a lot
[1:04:48] Speaker 1: of quarters, I think, on paper, theoretically, in a vacuum.
[1:04:53] Speaker 1: Bo Nix should be better against this Jaguar style of defense.
[1:04:58] Speaker 1: I am worried about it, so I only have it
[1:05:00] Speaker 1: in my sixth spot. But I do think that, you know,
[1:05:04] Speaker 1: if you look at just the difference between how Trevor
[1:05:07] Speaker 1: is playing right now versus how Bo is playing right now,
[1:05:09] Speaker 1: and it is a quarterback league, I Trevor is one
[1:05:12] Speaker 1: of the early candidates for MVP after one week of play,
[1:05:15] Speaker 1: but he was absolutely unassailable last week.
[1:05:19] Speaker 2: I'm picking the Jags as well. I only have them
[1:05:21] Speaker 2: at my two spot. Where did you have them in
[1:05:22] Speaker 2: your rankings?
[1:05:23] Speaker 1: Six. Okay.
[1:05:24] Speaker 3: You've got the Jags at your six spot. I have
[1:05:26] Speaker 3: them in the two spot.
[1:05:28] Speaker 2: This is a game where it's hard to have concrete
[1:05:31] Speaker 2: takeaways one way or the other because yes, Jacksonville is great,
[1:05:34] Speaker 2: but they were playing what might be the worst team
[1:05:35] Speaker 2: in the NFL this year. The Broncos look terrible against
[1:05:39] Speaker 2: the Chiefs, but you kind of say to yourself, my goodness,
[1:05:41] Speaker 2: a lot of the issues that they had were on
[1:05:43] Speaker 2: the defensive side of the ball. Is that defense really
[1:05:46] Speaker 2: going to look that bad the entire year?
[1:05:48] Speaker 3: I mean, they were one of the best in the NFL.
[1:05:50] Speaker 2: They gave up the most yards after a missed tackle
[1:05:54] Speaker 2: in NGS's database history, which goes back to 2018.
[1:05:59] Speaker 3: So it can't be that bad again, right? Seahawks and
[1:06:02] Speaker 3: the Cardinals. A little interesting game.
[1:06:05] Speaker 2: A little closer than some people maybe thought was going
[1:06:07] Speaker 2: to be the case with the Cardinals coming off that
[1:06:09] Speaker 2: win against the Chargers. But this one's in Arizona. What
[1:06:11] Speaker 2: do you think about this one and where are you
[1:06:13] Speaker 2: putting in your confidence rankings?
[1:06:15] Speaker 1: Give me the Seahawks. Okay. Go with Drew Locke. Even
[1:06:19] Speaker 1: with a backup quarterback, I look at not just the
[1:06:23] Speaker 1: talent on the Seahawks team, but also the coaching staff.
[1:06:26] Speaker 1: I think it's a tremendous coaching staff. I am fascinated
[1:06:30] Speaker 1: to see if Jacoby Percet gets away with this. with
[1:06:33] Speaker 1: doing it again as far as the amount of shotgun
[1:06:37] Speaker 1: that they were in against the Chargers, and also just
[1:06:40] Speaker 1: the average time to throw. He had the second highest
[1:06:43] Speaker 1: quick throw percentage across the league in Week 1, only
[1:06:47] Speaker 1: second to Joe Burrow, who got it out basically instantaneously
[1:06:50] Speaker 1: against Tampa. And I'm not sure if the Seahawks are
[1:06:53] Speaker 1: going to let them do that again. If the Cardinals
[1:06:56] Speaker 1: start out 2-0, tip of the cap to you.
[1:06:58] Speaker 2: Cool. I'm putting it at the three spot. Not super confident, but...
[1:07:02] Speaker 2: I have it at the exact same spot. We're getting
[1:07:04] Speaker 2: a lot of my low confidence games out of the
[1:07:07] Speaker 2: way here early. I also have them in the three spot.
[1:07:09] Speaker 2: I have the Seahawks winning. I love what I saw
[1:07:12] Speaker 2: from the Cardinals.
[1:07:13] Speaker 3: They looked fearless.
[1:07:13] Speaker 2: They looked ready for that game. They didn't look like, oh,
[1:07:16] Speaker 2: this is a team that... Could be picking number one
[1:07:18] Speaker 2: overall next year. They say, hey, screw that. They certainly
[1:07:20] Speaker 2: went into this game, went on the road in SoFi,
[1:07:23] Speaker 2: and we're not afraid of the Chargers at all whatsoever,
[1:07:25] Speaker 2: and we're the aggressors in that game. And so I
[1:07:28] Speaker 2: don't think they're just going to be backing down from
[1:07:30] Speaker 2: the Seahawks just because of the reigning Super Bowl champs.
[1:07:32] Speaker 3: They're going to come out and give it their best.
[1:07:34] Speaker 2: All that to say, Seahawks defense is special, man. I
[1:07:37] Speaker 2: think it's still going to get after them. I think
[1:07:38] Speaker 2: that's going to be the X factor here. Going to
[1:07:40] Speaker 2: be a little closer, obviously, with no Sam Darnold in
[1:07:42] Speaker 2: this game and with the run game not being– as
[1:07:45] Speaker 2: efficient or as explosive as when they had Kenneth Walker
[1:07:48] Speaker 2: back there.
[1:07:48] Speaker 3: But I'm still going to Seahawks here.
[1:07:50] Speaker 2: And you mentioned if the Cardinals can come out of
[1:07:52] Speaker 2: this game and be 2-0, holy cow, we're going to
[1:07:55] Speaker 2: be spending some time breaking down and talking about how
[1:07:58] Speaker 2: this team Had one of the best surprise starts of
[1:08:01] Speaker 2: any team in the NFL.
[1:08:02] Speaker 1: So we will see.
[1:08:03] Speaker 3: Colts at the Chiefs.
[1:08:04] Speaker 2: Chiefs obviously feeling good coming off that Monday night win. Colts, man,
[1:08:08] Speaker 2: really reeling from what felt like a blowout against the
[1:08:12] Speaker 2: Baltimore Ravens there. What do you think about this game?
[1:08:14] Speaker 2: Who are you picking and where is it in the
[1:08:15] Speaker 2: confidence meter?
[1:08:17] Speaker 1: Boy, I was confident in the Colts overall. you know,
[1:08:20] Speaker 1: during the summer. Cause as soon as we heard Daniel
[1:08:23] Speaker 1: Jones is going to be back early, I was like, okay,
[1:08:24] Speaker 1: well I'm looking at what that offense did in the
[1:08:26] Speaker 1: first half of last season. And they just laid an
[1:08:29] Speaker 1: egg to the point where I was not just deeply
[1:08:32] Speaker 1: concerned about how they matched up against Baltimore. I'm deeply
[1:08:34] Speaker 1: concerned about how they match up against anybody. They called
[1:08:37] Speaker 1: so much man coverage in week one, but couldn't play
[1:08:41] Speaker 1: man coverage.
[1:08:43] Speaker 3: Right.
[1:08:43] Speaker 1: Their corners even gave like the corners are supposed to
[1:08:45] Speaker 1: be the thing they hang their hat on in that defense.
[1:08:47] Speaker 1: They gave up a lot of yards in man coverage.
[1:08:50] Speaker 1: So if they can't do that defensively, I don't feel
[1:08:55] Speaker 1: great about how they match up against Kansas City, who
[1:08:58] Speaker 1: have all sorts of ways. to just break guys open
[1:09:01] Speaker 1: in man coverage. Not necessarily by being good route runners.
[1:09:04] Speaker 1: I'm talking like formation wise and using motions. And then defensively,
[1:09:08] Speaker 1: I think Kansas City's defense played so well. And I
[1:09:11] Speaker 1: have real, real concerns about how the Colts are going
[1:09:13] Speaker 1: to come out against that. So give me the Chiefs
[1:09:15] Speaker 1: in this game. I'm putting it basically dead in the
[1:09:17] Speaker 1: middle at five. But based on what we saw in
[1:09:20] Speaker 1: week one, I don't know if I could justify picking Indianapolis.
[1:09:24] Speaker 2: I got the Chiefs at the eighth spot here. I'm
[1:09:26] Speaker 2: pretty confident in this one because if the Chiefs can
[1:09:29] Speaker 2: look the way that they did with Patrick Mahomes not
[1:09:31] Speaker 2: completing a single pass beyond 10 air yards, sky's pretty
[1:09:35] Speaker 2: much the limit at that point. I think the first
[1:09:37] Speaker 2: and foremost is are the Colts going to be able
[1:09:39] Speaker 2: to stop the run game with Kenneth Walker? And then
[1:09:41] Speaker 2: if you are, okay, well, now you've got to deal with,
[1:09:44] Speaker 2: like you mentioned, Andy Reid, who's very, very good at
[1:09:46] Speaker 2: dialing up these man-beaters type of, play concepts and he's
[1:09:49] Speaker 2: got a great quarterback when it comes to timing and
[1:09:51] Speaker 2: overall arm strength to be able to hit these fast
[1:09:53] Speaker 2: receivers to get them the ball I think the Colts
[1:09:55] Speaker 2: are still going to be able to run the ball
[1:09:56] Speaker 2: well just like they did against the Ravens but what
[1:10:00] Speaker 2: else outside of that that's my question with the Colts
[1:10:03] Speaker 2: what are you outside of what we thought you kind
[1:10:05] Speaker 2: of already were can you be anything above and beyond
[1:10:09] Speaker 2: that Steelers at Patriots how do we feel about this
[1:10:12] Speaker 2: game who's winning this one I put this at my
[1:10:15] Speaker 2: eight spot.
[1:10:16] Speaker 1: Okay for who we can New England over Pittsburgh.
[1:10:20] Speaker 3: Okay, all right, okay.
[1:10:23] Speaker 1: Really bad picks in the second half. I get it.
[1:10:26] Speaker 1: Drake May, that was the worst game of his career.
[1:10:29] Speaker 1: Might be the worst game he's played even going back
[1:10:32] Speaker 1: to college.
[1:10:33] Speaker 2: It was almost like sophomore level UNC Drake May.
[1:10:38] Speaker 1: McDonald started blitzing way more in the second half to
[1:10:41] Speaker 1: try to get them into more second and longs, third
[1:10:43] Speaker 1: and longs. And Drake was like, I got to make
[1:10:45] Speaker 1: a play. I got to do something. You're up 10-0. No,
[1:10:47] Speaker 1: you don't, right? And that's a young quarterback trying to
[1:10:51] Speaker 1: put the game in his hands when he really didn't
[1:10:53] Speaker 1: have to. And I think that was probably the best
[1:10:56] Speaker 1: thing that could have happened to him in week one
[1:10:59] Speaker 1: because he learned a lesson. Of course, they lose A.J.
[1:11:01] Speaker 1: Brown in that game. So there were some longer ramifications,
[1:11:05] Speaker 1: but he learned a lesson that he really needed to
[1:11:08] Speaker 1: learn again. And now he's going against a Steelers team
[1:11:10] Speaker 1: that I don't know if anybody watched the Steelers offense
[1:11:14] Speaker 1: in week one. Not great.
[1:11:18] Speaker 2: No, still not super explosive. Defense is great. I mean,
[1:11:21] Speaker 2: they were able to really get a ton of pressure,
[1:11:23] Speaker 2: at least, although they didn't play a single rep of
[1:11:26] Speaker 2: man coverage at all.
[1:11:27] Speaker 3: So it'll be interesting to see if.
[1:11:29] Speaker 2: They just have a little bit more respect for what
[1:11:31] Speaker 2: Drake may can do in that respect. I'm taking the
[1:11:34] Speaker 2: Patriots as well. I'll put them in my sixth spot.
[1:11:36] Speaker 2: I'll go Patriots over Steelers. Commanders of the Cowboys.
[1:11:39] Speaker 3: Now, hold on.
[1:11:39] Speaker 2: Before you answer this, if I'm Keep and score correctly
[1:11:43] Speaker 2: at home. You still have your 9 and your 10
[1:11:46] Speaker 2: spot open.
[1:11:47] Speaker 3: One of these two last.
[1:11:48] Speaker 2: Games, it's your most confident game and then your second
[1:11:51] Speaker 2: most confident game. Where are the Cowboys at? Or sorry, no,
[1:11:57] Speaker 2: it's the Commanders at the Cowboys. So this one's in Dallas.
[1:11:59] Speaker 2: Where is that one for you?
[1:12:01] Speaker 1: That's my tenor. I have the Cowboys.
[1:12:04] Speaker 3: You're putting the.
[1:12:05] Speaker 2: Cowboys at the 10 spot again?
[1:12:08] Speaker 1: Second time in a row.
[1:12:09] Speaker 3: I can't be wrong twice in a row, Trev. Have
[1:12:12] Speaker 3: you not learned?
[1:12:13] Speaker 1: I'm going to be digging out of this hole until Christmas, dude.
[1:12:17] Speaker 2: I'm also picking the Cowboys, by the way, but they're
[1:12:19] Speaker 2: the five spot for me. So I'm picking the same team.
[1:12:24] Speaker 3: It's a little further down.
[1:12:25] Speaker 2: So if the Commanders get the upset here, you might
[1:12:28] Speaker 2: be in trouble, my friend.
[1:12:29] Speaker 1: Dude, if the Commanders get the upset, I am hosed,
[1:12:32] Speaker 1: but it's okay. If you just look at A, the
[1:12:35] Speaker 1: Cowboys offense in week one, they only had seven possessions.
[1:12:38] Speaker 1: They scored on four of them. The offense was not
[1:12:40] Speaker 1: the problem. The defense was. And some of the errors
[1:12:43] Speaker 1: on defense, I think, are very correctable. If you look
[1:12:46] Speaker 1: at the Commanders offense in week one, they have structural
[1:12:49] Speaker 1: issues that are not really correctable like that. They just
[1:12:52] Speaker 1: didn't have the talent up front. They could not block
[1:12:54] Speaker 1: Philly whatsoever. I'm not confident in this Commander's team whatsoever,
[1:12:59] Speaker 1: and while I do respect the hell out of them
[1:13:01] Speaker 1: for coming back against the Eagles and almost tying it up,
[1:13:04] Speaker 1: they were down for a reason.
[1:13:07] Speaker 2: I'm with you, and that's why I'm going with the Cowboys,
[1:13:09] Speaker 2: but it's going to be worth monitoring very, very closely.
[1:13:13] Speaker 2: A lot of mental errors and some reps where the
[1:13:18] Speaker 2: effort wasn't as good as you wanted it to be
[1:13:20] Speaker 2: from that Cowboys defense overall, and you go.
[1:13:23] Speaker 3: Okay, hold on here.
[1:13:25] Speaker 2: If we get anything that's close to a repeat performance
[1:13:28] Speaker 2: of those elements, you start to get worried about Dallas.
[1:13:31] Speaker 2: But for now, I'll think that, hey, those guys probably
[1:13:34] Speaker 2: watched the tape, said we do not want to put
[1:13:36] Speaker 2: that out there ever again. It's going to look different.
[1:13:38] Speaker 2: I'm also taking the Cowboys, but I got them at
[1:13:40] Speaker 2: the 5 spot. Which means Rams and the Giants. I've
[1:13:45] Speaker 2: got it at the 10 spot, most confident game. You've
[1:13:47] Speaker 2: got it at the 9 spot, your second most confident
[1:13:50] Speaker 2: game here.
[1:13:52] Speaker 1: Of course.
[1:13:53] Speaker 2: You're taking the Giants, right? I mean, the Giants are
[1:13:54] Speaker 2: on the roll. You got to be taking the Giants here, right? Right? Right?
[1:13:59] Speaker 2: I'm backing you in a corner to make you pick
[1:14:01] Speaker 2: the Giants here.
[1:14:01] Speaker 1: I'm a coward. I can't do it. I'm going Rams, dude.
[1:14:06] Speaker 3: I am too.
[1:14:06] Speaker 1: If this Rams team started out as like the heavy, heavy,
[1:14:10] Speaker 1: heavy choice for everybody to win the Super Bowl and
[1:14:14] Speaker 1: they start 0-2, that might be the story of the
[1:14:18] Speaker 1: you know, the first quarter of the season. You have
[1:14:20] Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford, the reigning MVP. You have Puka. You have Devonta.
[1:14:23] Speaker 1: You have a run game that was really, really effective
[1:14:26] Speaker 1: last year. And on the defensive line, you still have
[1:14:28] Speaker 1: Kobe and Byron and Brayden, and you bring it in
[1:14:31] Speaker 1: McDuffie and Watson. I can't imagine this team lays that
[1:14:37] Speaker 1: much of an egg again.
[1:14:38] Speaker 2: I thought it was just a recipe for failure, how
[1:14:42] Speaker 2: they handled everything in week one and I think a
[1:14:45] Speaker 2: lot of that naturally gets remedied in week two if
[1:14:48] Speaker 2: the Giants win this game if the Rams start on
[1:14:51] Speaker 2: with two boy that's going to be an interesting breakdown
[1:14:55] Speaker 2: for us on the reaction show because I got the
[1:14:57] Speaker 2: Rams at my 10th spot most confident game for them
[1:15:00] Speaker 2: to bounce back and get this win you got up
[1:15:01] Speaker 2: at the nine spot All right. That's all the time
[1:15:04] Speaker 2: that we had here for this show. We love you guys.
[1:15:06] Speaker 2: Thank you so much for all of the questions. You
[1:15:09] Speaker 2: gave so many incredible questions that honestly, we talked to
[1:15:12] Speaker 2: the staff. We're like, do we even need to just
[1:15:14] Speaker 2: have a separate show just for questions? Because we want
[1:15:16] Speaker 2: to get you guys involved in the show as much
[1:15:18] Speaker 2: as possible because we really, really appreciate all the engagement,
[1:15:21] Speaker 2: all the love from you guys. It makes this a
[1:15:23] Speaker 2: lot of fun every single week. Thank you guys so
[1:15:25] Speaker 2: much for watching. If you guys want to see whether
[1:15:27] Speaker 2: it's the film or the data or whatever it is,
[1:15:29] Speaker 2: we're using NFL Pro for all this stuff. So that
[1:15:32] Speaker 2: paired with NGS, make sure you guys have a subscription
[1:15:34] Speaker 2: to those things and you can find a lot of
[1:15:36] Speaker 2: this information out yourself. But thank you for hanging out
[1:15:38] Speaker 2: with us. We appreciate it. We will be back with
[1:15:40] Speaker 2: you on Monday for our reaction show of everything that
[1:15:43] Speaker 2: we're about to see here in week two.
[1:15:44] Speaker 3: We'll see you guys then.

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