# Don't overreact! Brett & Trevor break down Sunday's Week 1 action | NFL Pro

An episode of [NFL: The Insiders](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1543090622), 14 Sep 2026, 47 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/f10d0743-9ff9-4fde-8286-b4b200dd74e1/38c4e760-41f2-44a9-838b-b4c5008b3d53/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=3e412703-0644-468e-9001-ae390070e4db

Brett & Trevor break down Week 1's WILD performances and what storylines people are going to overreact to and which teams' hype and concern is most real. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning into our week one reaction show. We've
[0:03] Speaker 1: got plenty to unpack from the opening weekend of the
[0:06] Speaker 1: NFL season, from surprising results to standout performances and everything
[0:10] Speaker 1: in between.
[0:11] Speaker 2: Listen to NFL Pro on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
[0:14] Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts. Who said offense is dead?
[0:18] Speaker 2: In the Super Bowl era, in an opening week of
[0:20] Speaker 2: the season, this is the highest average points per game
[0:24] Speaker 2: going into Monday Night Football. We'll see what happens with
[0:25] Speaker 2: Kansas City and Denver. My God, Trevor, everybody is scoring today.
[0:29] Speaker 2: Though I will leave room for the possibility, the scant possibility,
[0:34] Speaker 2: that everybody's defense sucks.
[0:35] Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, no, no. We're not here to
[0:37] Speaker 1: talk about that. Because the stars were out in week one, right?
[0:40] Speaker 1: Caleb went nuts. Josh Allen went nuts. Lamar went crazy.
[0:44] Speaker 1: I feel like Lamar had an incredible performance and is
[0:46] Speaker 1: just getting overshadowed by some other unbelievable performances. Christian Watson
[0:50] Speaker 1: went for over 100. Zay Flowers went for over 100.
[0:53] Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson didn't go for over 100, but, I mean,
[0:56] Speaker 1: he was superhuman in the second half.
[0:58] Speaker 3: That's a superstar player making a superstar play.
[1:02] Speaker 1: The offenses were potent. The teams were unbelievable. The play
[1:05] Speaker 1: callers were on point. But also, I loved that... The
[1:09] Speaker 1: point of emphasis, players, that everybody in the stadium, whether
[1:13] Speaker 1: you had a headset on or not, a helmet on
[1:15] Speaker 1: or not, whether you were a fan or not, you
[1:16] Speaker 1: knew that this player was going to get the ball.
[1:18] Speaker 1: They still got the ball. And I think that that's
[1:20] Speaker 1: a sign of really that the offenses were cooking today.
[1:23] Speaker 2: Everybody was scoring, and yet I still found a way
[1:25] Speaker 2: to lose every single fantasy matchup. I'm in nine leagues.
[1:29] Speaker 2: I lost in all of them, Trevor.
[1:31] Speaker 1: Brother, I can't relate. Business is booming.
[1:35] Speaker 3: Welcome to NFL kickoff weekend. Hot and muggy in Charlotte,
[1:39] Speaker 3: North Carolina.
[1:40] Speaker 2: We should talk about Chicago and Carolina off the top.
[1:43] Speaker 1: We should indeed.
[1:44] Speaker 2: 59 points is ridiculous.
[1:46] Speaker 1: You score 59. When's the last time you scored 59?
[1:49] Speaker 2: December 1980. And the time before that, it was like 1968.
[1:54] Speaker 2: somewhere around there yeah so yeah.
[1:56] Speaker 1: It's ridiculous we're going once every 20 years if not
[1:58] Speaker 1: 40 years for that happening.
[2:00] Speaker 2: But ben johnson said he wanted to have the highest
[2:02] Speaker 2: scoring offense ever he did you have to average what
[2:06] Speaker 2: 38 points a game to do that they're already kind
[2:08] Speaker 2: of ahead of schedule so what do.
[2:10] Speaker 1: You mean kind of they scored 59 what do you
[2:12] Speaker 1: mean kind of they almost doubled it up but it's.
[2:15] Speaker 2: The way they did it that i found fascinating 291
[2:19] Speaker 2: yards on the ground that's the thing Yes. Everybody wants
[2:23] Speaker 2: to talk about Caleb Williams. Caleb was great in this game.
[2:25] Speaker 2: Caleb had the Caleb Williams moments. I mean, there were
[2:29] Speaker 2: some moments from him in structure that looked very good,
[2:33] Speaker 2: and there were also some of those USC Caleb Williams
[2:36] Speaker 2: moments that were also there to sort of give you
[2:39] Speaker 2: the wow factor as well. But it really is what
[2:43] Speaker 2: the Bears were on the ground. Again, when people hear
[2:48] Speaker 2: Ben Johnson say, I want to break the scoring record,
[2:51] Speaker 2: Everybody says, well, can Caleb do that?
[2:54] Speaker 1: Do you think he's efficient enough? All this kind of stuff.
[2:56] Speaker 1: The real question is, do you have the run game
[2:58] Speaker 1: to do that? Because the teams that put up that
[3:01] Speaker 1: many points every single week, they do not just have
[3:04] Speaker 1: a high ceiling. They have a high floor. And you
[3:07] Speaker 1: have a high floor when you can run the ball
[3:09] Speaker 1: really well. So 291 rushing yards, 82 rushing yards over
[3:13] Speaker 1: expected for this team as well.
[3:16] Speaker 2: Which, by the way, that means they were expected to
[3:17] Speaker 2: run for 200 plus.
[3:20] Speaker 1: When's the last time that happened? Look, we talk about
[3:23] Speaker 1: the good offense. There's another side of the coin with
[3:25] Speaker 1: Carolina that we'll talk about a little bit later. But yes,
[3:28] Speaker 1: it is this emphasis on the run game and how
[3:32] Speaker 1: efficient and explosive this run game was. Whether it was
[3:34] Speaker 1: DeAndre Swift or Kyle Menungai, it didn't matter. Both of
[3:38] Speaker 1: those guys really went off in this game. And that's
[3:41] Speaker 1: how you achieve rare air of being an offense, is
[3:44] Speaker 1: you're able to run the ball really well.
[3:46] Speaker 2: And they kind of weaponized... one of their superpowers, which is, hey,
[3:50] Speaker 2: we have one of the best right tackles on planet Earth.
[3:52] Speaker 2: Working together with Jonah Jackson, they ran to the right 64%
[3:56] Speaker 2: of the time because they could. They averaged 7.8 yards
[4:00] Speaker 2: per carry to that side because they could.
[4:03] Speaker 3: Last year, DeAndre Swift and Kyle Menungai became the first
[4:06] Speaker 3: running back duo for the Chicago Bears to have... 100
[4:09] Speaker 3: yards rushing in a game each since the Peyton-Suey combination.
[4:14] Speaker 3: There hadn't been a duo in the NFL to do
[4:16] Speaker 3: it in six years since Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.
[4:19] Speaker 3: These two guys have done it back-to-back seasons now.
[4:22] Speaker 2: It didn't matter what the call was. Like, we saw
[4:25] Speaker 2: a bunch of wide zone today. We saw power. We
[4:27] Speaker 2: saw counter. We saw everything. It all worked to that side. And,
[4:32] Speaker 2: you know, while we did praise a lot of the
[4:34] Speaker 2: offseason acquisitions the Panthers have made in the front seven...
[4:38] Speaker 2: it kind of didn't seem to matter. We were right
[4:40] Speaker 2: back where we were last year.
[4:42] Speaker 1: There are two sides to it, but for me, the
[4:44] Speaker 1: bigger takeaway of this game is how good the Bears were.
[4:47] Speaker 1: It was a rough game for the Carolina Panthers, but
[4:50] Speaker 1: you and I talked about this when we were doing
[4:51] Speaker 1: the preview show last week. It was going to be
[4:54] Speaker 1: a great barometer game for the Panthers because of all
[4:58] Speaker 1: their defensive investments. And if they were really able to
[5:03] Speaker 1: hold the line of scrimmage against one of the better
[5:06] Speaker 1: offensive lines in the league last year and one of
[5:09] Speaker 1: the better run games and just one of the better
[5:11] Speaker 1: offenses overall, then you would think that this Carolina team's
[5:15] Speaker 1: ahead of schedule with even the offensive addition that they had.
[5:18] Speaker 1: It was not that today, but I think that's much
[5:21] Speaker 1: more of a, oh gosh, this Bears team is better
[5:25] Speaker 1: than it was on the offensive side of the ball
[5:27] Speaker 1: last year. Dude, you talked about Darnell Wright in the
[5:29] Speaker 1: run game. His time to pressure in this game, 4.58
[5:33] Speaker 1: seconds as an average.
[5:36] Speaker 2: Which basically means you're not getting pressure.
[5:38] Speaker 1: Which basically means you're not giving up a pressure. Now,
[5:41] Speaker 1: sometimes we know Caleb Williams likes to put on the
[5:43] Speaker 1: Superman cape and hold on to it for a really
[5:45] Speaker 1: long time. But even with Caleb Williams, this guy's not
[5:48] Speaker 1: giving up pressures. So this was a phenomenal game from
[5:53] Speaker 1: Darnell Wright. It was a great game overall from the
[5:56] Speaker 1: Bears offensive line.
[5:58] Speaker 2: But man.
[5:59] Speaker 1: Those are the two things to point out. As good
[6:01] Speaker 1: as Caleb was, as great as the playmakers are in
[6:03] Speaker 1: the passing game, they did all this. Colson Lovell didn't
[6:06] Speaker 1: have a catch, right? Yeah. Didn't have a single catch
[6:09] Speaker 1: in this game. They scored 59 points.
[6:11] Speaker 2: And we were thinking that Colson was going to be
[6:12] Speaker 2: like their true unlock.
[6:14] Speaker 1: And I think he will be later in the year.
[6:16] Speaker 2: But the fact they can do that without him really
[6:18] Speaker 2: needing to be.
[6:19] Speaker 1: Scary.
[6:19] Speaker 2: I mean, Rome plucked one off somebody's helmet. Right. Like
[6:23] Speaker 2: you had wide receiver five getting meaningful touches in this game. Yeah.
[6:28] Speaker 2: It's just unreal. And I do want to give the
[6:30] Speaker 2: Panthers credit, by the way, because I know a lot
[6:32] Speaker 2: of Panthers fans are distraught. You put up 37.
[6:34] Speaker 1: They put up 37. And Bryce was good. You talked
[6:38] Speaker 1: about the Bears, I think, playing man coverage in this game.
[6:41] Speaker 1: But if you go to the zone coverage stats for Bryce,
[6:44] Speaker 1: Bryce was 17 for 20 for 289 yards versus zone
[6:49] Speaker 1: in this game.
[6:50] Speaker 2: It's one of the best games he's ever played, and
[6:52] Speaker 2: it's not a win.
[6:53] Speaker 1: And dude, when you look at how he was under
[6:56] Speaker 1: pressure as well, Six for nine, 83 yards, a touchdown, 17.3%
[7:01] Speaker 1: completion percentage above expectation. Bryce was great in this game.
[7:06] Speaker 1: Jayla Coker was great in this game. The running game
[7:08] Speaker 1: was fantastic for the one-two combination. Chuba Harper got more
[7:12] Speaker 1: of the paydirt opportunities for this team. But this was
[7:16] Speaker 1: a great offensive day for Carolina. And it's hard to
[7:20] Speaker 1: feel as bad about this as I know probably Panthers
[7:24] Speaker 1: fans and Dave Canales and the whole staff do. After
[7:27] Speaker 1: you score 37.
[7:28] Speaker 2: It's one of those, it's a different feeling if it's
[7:32] Speaker 2: 59-37 versus if it's 59-10. Yes. At least something was working.
[7:36] Speaker 3: Right, right.
[7:37] Speaker 2: And I think you can reasonably assume you're not going
[7:40] Speaker 2: to give up 59 every single week. Yeah, you would hope.
[7:43] Speaker 2: It's just, can we carry the 37 through.
[7:45] Speaker 1: And really give up 25? I was very impressed by
[7:51] Speaker 1: the offense. Again, we previewed this game last week. I
[7:55] Speaker 1: had my worries about them on the offense with how
[7:57] Speaker 1: explosive they could be. Now on the other side of things,
[7:59] Speaker 1: I'm still worried about the defensive line. Yes, I just
[8:03] Speaker 1: gave more credit to the Bears offensive line, but Derek Brown, 7.1%
[8:08] Speaker 1: pressure rate in this game. Jalen Phillips, just a 10.7%
[8:11] Speaker 1: pressure rate. That's not really what you want. Both of
[8:14] Speaker 1: those guys had a time to pressure of over three seconds,
[8:17] Speaker 1: so neither of your studs are getting consistent pressure before
[8:20] Speaker 1: three seconds into play. Of those stats, okay, not great signs.
[8:25] Speaker 1: This is the one that doesn't feel great. They blitzed
[8:29] Speaker 1: on more than half of their snaps. They blitzed on 51.3%
[8:34] Speaker 1: of their snaps and still only got total pressure 33%
[8:37] Speaker 1: of the time. That would have been bottom half of
[8:40] Speaker 1: the league last year, total, 33% as a team. So
[8:43] Speaker 1: you're blitzing more than half the time And you're still
[8:46] Speaker 1: not even getting top half of what would have been
[8:48] Speaker 1: the average team pressure last year. It just goes to
[8:51] Speaker 1: show it's still a work in progress in Carolina. You
[8:54] Speaker 1: like what you saw from the offense. But again, to me,
[8:57] Speaker 1: the big takeaway is who the Bears were in this
[9:00] Speaker 1: game rather than the negative of what we saw from
[9:03] Speaker 1: the Panthers with the loss.
[9:04] Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's a shot across the bow for
[9:06] Speaker 2: the Panthers defense. They have to get it corrected. If
[9:08] Speaker 2: they don't, they won't make the playoffs.
[9:10] Speaker 1: For sure.
[9:11] Speaker 2: But at least you can hang your hat on it.
[9:13] Speaker 2: We won't be blown out because our offense can put
[9:15] Speaker 2: up points. We have a quarterback that can really rise
[9:18] Speaker 2: to the occasion, even though the rest of his defense didn't.
[9:22] Speaker 2: I think there are positives to take away. I wouldn't
[9:24] Speaker 2: entirely panic if I was a Panthers fan. I'd panic
[9:26] Speaker 2: about the defense, but it's better than panicking about everything.
[9:29] Speaker 1: 100%. Oh, that last thing. I think it was a
[9:32] Speaker 1: little out and up, maybe a wheel route.
[9:34] Speaker 2: I can't remember.
[9:36] Speaker 1: The throw that Bryce had to Tet, that it was
[9:37] Speaker 1: almost a touchdown, that was it. He lets go of
[9:40] Speaker 1: that ball before Tet even turns up the field. And
[9:44] Speaker 1: it's still, he just turns his head and it's in
[9:46] Speaker 1: his hands. That's Bryce Young at his finest. That's Bryce Young,
[9:51] Speaker 1: Heisman Trophy winner at Alabama type of player. And we
[9:54] Speaker 1: saw a good offense for them. They just ran into
[9:56] Speaker 1: what might be the best offense ever.
[9:59] Speaker 2: We'll see.
[9:59] Speaker 1: As the season goes on.
[10:00] Speaker 2: Well, the season goes on against the Vikings.
[10:04] Speaker 1: Yeah, because the Bears play the Vikings next week.
[10:06] Speaker 2: That's the second game we got to talk about because,
[10:07] Speaker 2: I mean, you and I both thought the Vikings were
[10:10] Speaker 2: going to win that game. We did not think we
[10:12] Speaker 2: were going to win. No, never in doubt.
[10:13] Speaker 1: <HAL> <HAL> <HAL> <HAL> <HAL> <HAL> <HAL> <HAL> <HAL> <HAL> <HAL> <HAL> <HAL> <HAL>
[10:15] Speaker 1: Never in doubt. Never in doubt.
[10:17] Speaker 2: There was a little bit of doubt when Carson went through.
[10:19] Speaker 2: I will not.
[10:19] Speaker 1: I will not let the people see how the sausage
[10:22] Speaker 1: was made this afternoon when they were down 22 to 10.
[10:24] Speaker 1: I will not let them see that.
[10:26] Speaker 2: Flashback to like the middle of today while we're watching
[10:29] Speaker 2: the game. We're like, oh my God, we're going to
[10:30] Speaker 2: get cooked in the comments. We're saying the Vikings are
[10:33] Speaker 2: going to win.
[10:35] Speaker 1: What a crazy game though.
[10:36] Speaker 2: I mean, this was the most Brian Flores game I've
[10:39] Speaker 2: seen since that one primetime game when he was in Miami.
[10:42] Speaker 2: Remember when he blitzed Javon Holland off the edge like
[10:44] Speaker 2: 30 times in one game? This, I think, was probably
[10:47] Speaker 2: the most aggressive game he's had since that game. 78%
[10:52] Speaker 2: blitz rate on pass downs. Are you out of your mind?
[10:56] Speaker 2: It works, though. I'll give him that.
[10:58] Speaker 1: He's just me playing Madden. Engage it until you can
[11:02] Speaker 1: figure it out. Go ahead, beat it.
[11:05] Speaker 2: Right.
[11:05] Speaker 1: Dude, but that goes into, obviously, a great comeback for Minnesota.
[11:09] Speaker 1: Rough to see Kyler take that hit early. Obviously, it
[11:12] Speaker 1: was a really, really, really tough hit in a bad
[11:15] Speaker 1: situation where his helmet's kind of coming off and he's
[11:17] Speaker 1: getting hit while he's going to the ground. It was
[11:19] Speaker 1: just good to see him moving afterwards. But Carson Wentz
[11:22] Speaker 1: comes in, obviously leads the comeback for them. The Viking
[11:25] Speaker 1: side of things.
[11:26] Speaker 2: It was.
[11:27] Speaker 1: I didn't think that Aaron Jones still had that in him,
[11:29] Speaker 1: and they had a great day on the ground, a
[11:30] Speaker 1: better day than I thought. But all of this to say,
[11:34] Speaker 1: to me, Brett, the real takeaway is actually the Packers' struggles.
[11:37] Speaker 1: And specifically, to your point of Flores blitzing as much
[11:41] Speaker 1: as he did, he was testing this Packers' offensive line.
[11:46] Speaker 2: They failed.
[11:47] Speaker 1: Because when you look at this offensive line, four out
[11:49] Speaker 1: of their five offensive linemen had a time to pressure
[11:53] Speaker 1: below two and a half seconds.
[11:56] Speaker 2: You can't function that way.
[11:58] Speaker 1: There's no offense that works, especially because you pair that with,
[12:04] Speaker 1: when people talk about the Jekyll and Hyde of Jordan Love,
[12:06] Speaker 1: a lot of people look at sort of, you know,
[12:09] Speaker 1: first half versus second half splits, because obviously in this game,
[12:12] Speaker 1: you know, they're great in the first half, they're great
[12:14] Speaker 1: in the second half. I actually don't think it was
[12:16] Speaker 1: necessarily just a tale of two halves with him. I
[12:18] Speaker 1: think the big issue was when he wasn't throwing it deep,
[12:21] Speaker 1: he was not in rhythm and he was not comfortable
[12:23] Speaker 1: at all. When you look at Jordan Love passes under
[12:27] Speaker 1: 10 air yards, he was eight for 17 in this game.
[12:30] Speaker 1: So below a 50% completion percentage, 51 total yards at
[12:34] Speaker 1: interception and a negative 20.1% completion percentage over expected. So
[12:39] Speaker 1: when you're getting blitzed the way that Flores is blitzing
[12:43] Speaker 1: you and your offensive line is relinquishing pressure that quickly,
[12:47] Speaker 1: what do you have to do? You've got to hit
[12:49] Speaker 1: the hot route. You've got to hit the hot read
[12:52] Speaker 1: on wherever your safety blanket is.
[12:54] Speaker 2: And he just could not do it. They had 10
[12:57] Speaker 2: unblocked pressures in this game. He had 22 pressure dropbacks,
[13:00] Speaker 2: which is already insane. And I'm not entirely sure who
[13:04] Speaker 2: is calling protections in Green Bay. I don't know if
[13:06] Speaker 2: Jordan's doing it. I don't know if the center's doing it.
[13:07] Speaker 2: Maybe it's a little mix of both. But when you
[13:10] Speaker 2: have that many free bodies at the quarterback over and
[13:12] Speaker 2: over and over again, first of all, it's a fundamental issue.
[13:15] Speaker 2: with your protection plan. Like clearly Flores knew exactly what
[13:17] Speaker 2: they were going to do when he presented certain fronts,
[13:20] Speaker 2: certain looks, he knew exactly how they were going to
[13:21] Speaker 2: protect it and he attacked it. But eventually you have
[13:25] Speaker 2: to have some sort of answer offensively, whether it's, okay,
[13:30] Speaker 2: we need to add extra bodies and protection, or we
[13:32] Speaker 2: need to be able to like be on our P's
[13:34] Speaker 2: and Q's when throwing hot. We cannot just let free
[13:37] Speaker 2: runners at the quarterback over and over and over again
[13:40] Speaker 2: and have no answer. Or it looks like that. They
[13:43] Speaker 2: scored 22 points in the fourth quarter. Packers scored 22, period.
[13:47] Speaker 2: That only happens because, first of all, Packers fans, I
[13:50] Speaker 2: understand there was a rough call on a crucial third down. Yes,
[13:54] Speaker 2: we didn't like the call either. That call isn't why
[13:57] Speaker 2: you lost the game. There was a whole bunch of
[13:59] Speaker 2: points that were scored after that. There was turnovers that
[14:01] Speaker 2: happened after that.
[14:02] Speaker 1: Yeah, it didn't help. It didn't help, but there were
[14:06] Speaker 1: multiple moments throughout the game where you could have stopped
[14:09] Speaker 1: the run, stopped shooting yourself in the foot.
[14:12] Speaker 2: Yes, it was a bad call. I agree with you guys.
[14:14] Speaker 2: You're right to be upset about that. But I think
[14:16] Speaker 2: you're channeling your anger towards that one specific inflection point
[14:19] Speaker 2: as much as we believe in momentum here. You're channeling
[14:22] Speaker 2: your anger towards that. Oh, brethren. It's good. I know.
[14:25] Speaker 2: There's dozens of us out there. There are dozens of us.
[14:28] Speaker 2: But you have to also look at every other opportunity,
[14:33] Speaker 2: all the other high leverage plays that the Packers failed
[14:36] Speaker 2: on in the second half, defensively and offensively specifically. They
[14:40] Speaker 2: needed a couple drives to put them away. They couldn't
[14:42] Speaker 2: do it because they couldn't answer all this pressure. So yeah,
[14:45] Speaker 2: you can be upset at the penalty. Be upset about
[14:47] Speaker 2: a whole lot more than that. We can't put ourselves
[14:50] Speaker 2: behind the sticks because you're playing right into their hands.
[14:52] Speaker 2: That's when they want to give you all those pressure looks.
[14:55] Speaker 1: Vikings offensive line on the other side of things, I think,
[14:58] Speaker 1: did play very, very well. They didn't have a single
[15:00] Speaker 1: offensive lineman with a pressure percentage above 7%. I mean,
[15:04] Speaker 1: this group was really, really playing well and it's a
[15:07] Speaker 1: Vikings offensive line that's really gone through, you know, their
[15:10] Speaker 1: fair share of injuries over the last couple of years.
[15:12] Speaker 1: You and I were just talking about like Christian Derrissaw
[15:14] Speaker 1: and how many injuries, you know, he's gone through for
[15:16] Speaker 1: his career. But when this group, this five is fully healthy,
[15:19] Speaker 1: you feel pretty good about it. And again, we go
[15:22] Speaker 1: to a little bit of a preview of Bears Vikings
[15:25] Speaker 1: that's coming up next week. And it's going to be
[15:28] Speaker 1: a very interesting matchup because these are two very, very
[15:31] Speaker 1: good offensive lines. You know, what's the Bears offensive line
[15:33] Speaker 1: going to look like against Flores and what's he going.
[15:35] Speaker 2: To throw at him?
[15:35] Speaker 1: You know, How desperate are the Bears' defensive line rotations
[15:40] Speaker 1: and everything? Are they going to try to match that
[15:42] Speaker 1: blitz percentage? Well, they're not going to match the blitz
[15:44] Speaker 1: percentage because nobody matches the blitz percentage.
[15:46] Speaker 2: They can try.
[15:47] Speaker 1: You never go full Flores. But it's going to come
[15:52] Speaker 1: down to these could be very potent offenses here, depending
[15:55] Speaker 1: on if Carson Wentz is able to get into a
[15:57] Speaker 1: rhythm the way that he was in this game. We'll
[15:59] Speaker 1: obviously see what Kyler Murray's status is, but very much
[16:02] Speaker 1: looking forward to that game that we've got coming up
[16:04] Speaker 1: next week.
[16:05] Speaker 2: I'm really fascinated by whatever answers Ben Johnson can come, uh,
[16:08] Speaker 2: can come up with. Obviously we're going to talk about
[16:10] Speaker 2: this game in the preview show, uh, later this week, historically,
[16:14] Speaker 2: whether Ben, Ben was with Detroit or with Chicago, it's
[16:18] Speaker 2: been very under center play action heavy because he wants
[16:22] Speaker 2: to be able to age or all the linebackers up
[16:25] Speaker 2: because the linebackers, as we talked about last week, they're
[16:27] Speaker 2: under a lot of pressure in this scheme. They have
[16:29] Speaker 2: a lot of ground they have to cover because you're
[16:31] Speaker 2: throwing bodies, uh, extra bodies at the quarterbacks, which means
[16:34] Speaker 2: there's less bodies in coverage. So the linebackers are really,
[16:37] Speaker 2: really stressed here. So Ben Johnson has kind of stressed
[16:39] Speaker 2: them even more with play action. You have to honor
[16:42] Speaker 2: the run fake. You already have a bunch of space
[16:44] Speaker 2: over the middle you have to cover. And then if
[16:46] Speaker 2: you're doing these quick hitting play action, you know, like
[16:50] Speaker 2: with Amon Rod, like 12 yards over the middle, he
[16:53] Speaker 2: would just eat with those in Detroit. He did it
[16:55] Speaker 2: also in Chicago. I am fascinated to see if Flores
[16:58] Speaker 2: has a plan for that, which might involve just not
[17:03] Speaker 2: blitzing as much.
[17:05] Speaker 1: I wonder if he's maybe going to do that because
[17:10] Speaker 1: he saw what Christian Watson did to him today, right?
[17:12] Speaker 1: I mean, if you get in a chance where, hey,
[17:14] Speaker 1: we're starting to throw bodies to the line of scrimmage,
[17:16] Speaker 1: but they're picking it up really well, you know, whether
[17:18] Speaker 1: it's the running backs who are nice pass protectors themselves,
[17:21] Speaker 1: whether it's Menungai or DeAndre Swift or obviously Cole Komet
[17:25] Speaker 1: who can sit in and pass protection as well. Like,
[17:27] Speaker 1: if you start to get into some action protection looks
[17:29] Speaker 1: and you start putting some serious speed into against those
[17:33] Speaker 1: older safeties that have to cover a lot of ground
[17:36] Speaker 1: Christian Watson showed you that you know he could capitalize
[17:39] Speaker 1: on that in the first half of this game and
[17:41] Speaker 1: so just very curious if if Flores is going to
[17:43] Speaker 1: still stay aggressive for as good as that uh Bears
[17:46] Speaker 1: offense was this.
[17:47] Speaker 2: Week speaking of torching safeties let's talk about Reed Blankenship
[17:52] Speaker 2: as a Texans fan uh it's okay Reed not my
[17:55] Speaker 2: favorite segment he's an alien right now Josh Allen is
[17:57] Speaker 2: an alien So he had 155 yards just on four
[18:02] Speaker 2: throws in this game because he took seven shots. I'm
[18:05] Speaker 2: talking about Josh Allen, obviously. Took seven shots at 20-plus yards,
[18:08] Speaker 2: completed four of them. Got a buck 55 and two
[18:10] Speaker 2: touchdowns on those four. Two of them were against Reed Blankenship,
[18:16] Speaker 2: one of which I kind of understand.
[18:18] Speaker 1: For sure. The sideline one to DJ Moore.
[18:20] Speaker 2: There is no universe where, as a safety, you're thinking
[18:23] Speaker 2: somebody's going to make that throw.
[18:24] Speaker 1: Yeah, nobody's going to.
[18:27] Speaker 2: Him and Mahomes. Right? And Herbert. Herbert might do it. But, like, again,
[18:32] Speaker 2: Reid just spent a bunch of time in the NFC.
[18:34] Speaker 2: He's not seeing those guys often.
[18:37] Speaker 1: That's true. He's not used to that. I got baptized
[18:39] Speaker 1: a little bit today. You go and meet Josh Allen
[18:41] Speaker 1: like that.
[18:42] Speaker 2: There was the high seven to Kincaid late where Reid
[18:46] Speaker 2: got got. You know, Kamari, unfortunately, also got got late
[18:53] Speaker 2: in the game. It's just Josh was throwing these bombs
[18:56] Speaker 2: down the field.
[18:57] Speaker 1: Yes.
[18:58] Speaker 2: It's just going to happen.
[18:59] Speaker 1: For sure.
[19:00] Speaker 2: I don't really think the Texans defense played that bad
[19:02] Speaker 2: of a game, even with as many points as they
[19:04] Speaker 2: gave up. It's just sometimes you have an absolute all-time
[19:08] Speaker 2: quarterback that throws unguardable balls deep down the field.
[19:13] Speaker 1: This is a beauty of a game. This is just
[19:15] Speaker 1: a fantastic game to watch because what was the pivotal
[19:19] Speaker 1: point in this game? Kamari drops the interception that would
[19:22] Speaker 1: have sealed the game.
[19:23] Speaker 3: Yeah.
[19:24] Speaker 1: And It was either the next play or the play after.
[19:27] Speaker 2: I think it was literally the next play.
[19:29] Speaker 1: Josh Allen throws an absolute seed and there's a touchdown.
[19:32] Speaker 2: Against Kamari, by the way.
[19:33] Speaker 1: And that's sort of the two sides of the coin
[19:37] Speaker 1: of how this game could have gone. And it was
[19:39] Speaker 1: literally just one drop bobbled interception and we would be
[19:42] Speaker 1: sitting here talking about the Texans still have Josh Allen's number.
[19:46] Speaker 1: or they're on their way to a deep playoff run,
[19:49] Speaker 1: and they maybe still are. But that was just, I think,
[19:52] Speaker 1: a microcosm of a game of two of the best
[19:55] Speaker 1: teams in the NFL that went up against each other.
[19:58] Speaker 1: The Texans scoring, you said this earlier, and I think
[20:01] Speaker 1: it was beautifully said, the Texans scoring 31 points and
[20:06] Speaker 1: losing is a Josh Allen stat.
[20:08] Speaker 2: Yes.
[20:09] Speaker 1: That is a Josh Allen stat because I'm pretty sure
[20:14] Speaker 1: every fan base other than maybe the Broncos, maybe Broncos
[20:18] Speaker 1: fans would take the Texans defense over any defense that
[20:22] Speaker 1: they had.
[20:22] Speaker 2: And Josh still, he can still do that against Denver.
[20:25] Speaker 1: He scored 36.
[20:25] Speaker 2: There's no defense on this planet that can stop Josh
[20:30] Speaker 2: Allen when he's at his best.
[20:31] Speaker 1: When he is at, when Josh Allen is at his best,
[20:33] Speaker 1: the only thing that can stop it is Josh Allen.
[20:36] Speaker 2: That's it. Yeah. Or his offensive line holding up, which
[20:39] Speaker 2: they did hold up pretty well.
[20:41] Speaker 1: They were good today.
[20:42] Speaker 2: Both offensive lines were. That's the thing. If I'm a
[20:44] Speaker 2: Texans fan, I'm not that upset. If I'm a Bills fan,
[20:46] Speaker 2: I'm not that upset about the defense. This was just
[20:48] Speaker 2: two really good teams going at it, scored a bunch
[20:51] Speaker 2: of points. There were big plays on both sides. It
[20:54] Speaker 2: was a playoff game in September.
[20:56] Speaker 1: It was a good game. Yes, 100%.
[20:58] Speaker 2: I'm not panicking at all.
[20:59] Speaker 1: So Houston's offensive line, we talked about it a lot
[21:03] Speaker 1: this offseason, and we talked about it a lot last
[21:05] Speaker 1: season because they weren't very good. A lot of new additions,
[21:08] Speaker 1: a lot of new guys in there, some young guys,
[21:09] Speaker 1: some old guys. They're trying to get the best five
[21:11] Speaker 1: out there kind of a thing. No Houston offensive lineman
[21:13] Speaker 1: had a pressure percentage above 10% on 42 dropbacks today.
[21:16] Speaker 2: And it just got them at the worst time. That's
[21:19] Speaker 2: a good stat.
[21:20] Speaker 1: I think that you feel really great about that, especially
[21:23] Speaker 1: because all of them... Now think about it. C.J. Stroud,
[21:28] Speaker 1: he's not Caleb Williams. He's not Josh Allen. He's not
[21:30] Speaker 1: going to hold on the ball for forever. He's more
[21:32] Speaker 1: of a pocket quarterback. He wants to operate more in structure.
[21:36] Speaker 1: all of the offensive linemen had a time to pressure
[21:38] Speaker 1: average above three seconds. That's pretty good. If you give
[21:42] Speaker 1: CJ Stroud that kind of time, guess what? You score 30. Yeah.
[21:47] Speaker 1: And so this is another situation very similar to the
[21:50] Speaker 1: way that we talked about with Carolina Panthers, where stings, sucks,
[21:55] Speaker 1: no moral victories. I get it. You can feel okay
[21:59] Speaker 1: about this one. I think that the Texans and Texans
[22:02] Speaker 1: fans can go, hey, if we see him again, We'll
[22:06] Speaker 1: get them. And I think that you're not believing in
[22:09] Speaker 1: a fantasy to say that if you see them again
[22:11] Speaker 1: in the playoffs.
[22:12] Speaker 2: And there were some issues that this team had last
[22:14] Speaker 2: year that they showed they at least improved on. Like
[22:17] Speaker 2: David Montgomery was a lifesaver in short yardage. Yes. Right? Yeah.
[22:21] Speaker 2: Last year, they were awful in goal line situations. The
[22:25] Speaker 2: goal-to-go situations, like down in the low red zone. Like
[22:27] Speaker 2: they could not punch the ball in at all. You
[22:30] Speaker 2: bring in David Montgomery, who's an absolute hammer. And while
[22:32] Speaker 2: the blocking was better, he can still finish those kinds
[22:35] Speaker 2: of runs way better than running backs that they had previously.
[22:37] Speaker 2: And I love what he marks. He's not built for that. Montgomery,
[22:41] Speaker 2: that's why they traded for him. He got three touchdowns
[22:44] Speaker 2: in this game. Last year's Texans, if Josh Allen did
[22:48] Speaker 2: what he did today against last year's Texans, they would
[22:50] Speaker 2: have gotten blown out because they couldn't win in those
[22:53] Speaker 2: short yardage, high leverage situations when they absolutely needed to.
[22:56] Speaker 2: And they would burn drives. They would end drives at
[22:59] Speaker 2: the two-yard line. Sometimes they would get to the two-yard
[23:01] Speaker 2: line and end up at the 10 because they would
[23:03] Speaker 2: take losses over and over and over again. The fact
[23:06] Speaker 2: that they showed, hey, we can actually operate in short yardage.
[23:09] Speaker 2: We can convert in high leverage situations. CJ played well.
[23:12] Speaker 2: I think so too. He did the sack fumble late.
[23:14] Speaker 2: This is a great start to his season. Yes.
[23:16] Speaker 1: Great start to his season.
[23:17] Speaker 2: You want to get $ 70 million a year? Do that. Sure.
[23:21] Speaker 1: What CJ Stroud did today will work more often than
[23:24] Speaker 1: it won't.
[23:25] Speaker 2: Yeah, how many teams are scoring 30-something against.
[23:27] Speaker 1: Well, yeah, obviously, yeah.
[23:29] Speaker 2: Jerry Shortness.
[23:30] Speaker 1: Pretty much just Josh Allen at this point is the
[23:32] Speaker 1: evidence that we have. I do want to give a
[23:33] Speaker 1: shout-out to the Billis defense, and specifically the Billis defensive line,
[23:37] Speaker 1: because on the preview show and a couple of other
[23:39] Speaker 1: shows that I was on, when we previewed this game,
[23:42] Speaker 1: I said, I'm a little worried. I'm a little worried
[23:44] Speaker 1: about what it looks like right out of the gate
[23:46] Speaker 1: with them switching from that even front, zone-heavy Sean McDermott defense,
[23:51] Speaker 1: which a lot of these players were acquired to run...
[23:54] Speaker 1: Now there's only so much change that you could do
[23:56] Speaker 1: in one offseason. Now you're switching to more of an
[23:59] Speaker 1: odd front, very aggressive, multiple front man coverage type of
[24:04] Speaker 1: a defense with Jim Leonard as their defense coordinator. I
[24:06] Speaker 1: thought they were excellent. And specifically, there was one player
[24:09] Speaker 1: that I really want to give a shout out to
[24:10] Speaker 1: because I was worried about this player because without him
[24:13] Speaker 1: playing well, I'm not sure how well this works. And
[24:16] Speaker 1: because Deion Walker, the Bills defensive lineman, played really well,
[24:20] Speaker 1: I think a lot of stuff worked around him. Because
[24:23] Speaker 1: he was a focal point to line up as a
[24:25] Speaker 1: nose tackle, to line up as a four-eye, to line
[24:27] Speaker 1: up as a three technique. Whatever it was, that length
[24:30] Speaker 1: and that overall size that he has, that strength profile,
[24:34] Speaker 1: I thought, especially in short yardage situations, it was excellent.
[24:36] Speaker 1: Two solo stops from Deion Walker today. Negative 2.2 yards
[24:41] Speaker 1: per rush allowed of a differential for when he was
[24:46] Speaker 1: on the field versus when he wasn't. So they were
[24:48] Speaker 1: giving up more than two yards a carry on the ground.
[24:52] Speaker 1: when he was not on the field. I think that
[24:55] Speaker 1: is a serious NGS stat that points to the fact
[24:57] Speaker 1: that Deion Walker was one of the best players that
[25:00] Speaker 1: we saw in this really good game. So shout out
[25:03] Speaker 1: to the Bills defensive line. You aced this first test
[25:06] Speaker 1: and you proved me as a little bit of a
[25:08] Speaker 1: doubter wrong here. I'm very excited to continue to watch
[25:10] Speaker 1: this group throughout the season. The hope is that Walker
[25:13] Speaker 1: can be, you know, their like DeForest, Buckner, Calais. That's
[25:17] Speaker 1: the dream.
[25:18] Speaker 2: Taller guy, but even though he'll have leverage issues because
[25:21] Speaker 2: he's a taller guy, he's longer and stronger than a
[25:24] Speaker 2: lot of guys that are across from. So if he
[25:26] Speaker 2: can get hands on quicker, his leverage issues are not
[25:29] Speaker 2: going to be that big of a deal. Plus his
[25:31] Speaker 2: lateral agility for a guy, his size, he's slanting. Like
[25:34] Speaker 2: he can get in the backfield in a hurry. Yeah.
[25:37] Speaker 2: This was one of the times where he looked like,
[25:39] Speaker 2: you remember like young Kentucky Deion Walker?
[25:41] Speaker 1: Yes.
[25:42] Speaker 2: Yes.
[25:42] Speaker 1: Before the back injury. Yes. Before the back injury. He
[25:45] Speaker 1: looked so unbelievable. Yes.
[25:49] Speaker 2: He was a true freshman. He'd be like, oh my God,
[25:50] Speaker 2: is he going to be a top 10 pick? Right.
[25:52] Speaker 2: That looked like that. Yeah, he did. He did.
[25:54] Speaker 1: Let's talk about New Orleans and Detroit next, because obviously
[25:57] Speaker 1: Barnburner goes into overtime. I mean, both teams score a
[26:02] Speaker 1: touchdown in overtime.
[26:03] Speaker 3: Right.
[26:04] Speaker 1: And Kellen Moore is like, absolutely, we're going for the win.
[26:07] Speaker 1: We're in Detroit.
[26:08] Speaker 2: Why not? You're on the road.
[26:09] Speaker 1: We're playing with house money, if you will. We got
[26:11] Speaker 1: to this point. We thought we were, you know, they
[26:13] Speaker 1: were down on the scoreboard in the second half. And
[26:15] Speaker 1: what an incredible game that this was. To me, it
[26:19] Speaker 1: was a hats off game to Tyler Shuck. Because I
[26:23] Speaker 1: went into this offseason thinking, yes, I'm excited about Tyler Shuck.
[26:28] Speaker 1: But I wasn't quite there yet with other people who
[26:30] Speaker 1: just were saying, hey, oh, yeah, he's totally good now. Like,
[26:33] Speaker 1: he is good to go. Like, we're totally believing in him.
[26:36] Speaker 1: New Orleans has their guy. I was like, I think
[26:38] Speaker 1: we've got to give it a little bit more time.
[26:40] Speaker 1: Sophomore slump, very real for these pro quarterbacks, especially when
[26:43] Speaker 1: defenses have an entire offseason. Take a look at your film,
[26:46] Speaker 1: at your tendencies, all that kinds of stuff. First half
[26:49] Speaker 1: for Tyler Shuck, not great. He was 10 for 22,
[26:52] Speaker 1: 85 passing yards, just a 3.9 yards per attempt average.
[26:58] Speaker 1: One interception and had a negative 20.8 completion percentage over expected.
[27:03] Speaker 1: Those are the NGS stats there. But if you get
[27:05] Speaker 1: to the fourth quarter in overtime, when it really mattered, really,
[27:08] Speaker 1: if you go to that, I don't remember what it was.
[27:10] Speaker 1: It was like a fourth and eight, fourth and nine
[27:13] Speaker 1: that he completed. And you don't complete that game. The
[27:15] Speaker 1: game's over. And he rockets it in there. They convert
[27:19] Speaker 1: that fourth down. Basically, from that moment on, 17 for 23,
[27:21] Speaker 1: 231 yards, 10 yards per attempt instead, two touchdowns, and 17.5%
[27:23] Speaker 1: above with the completion percentage above expected. So Tyler Shuck,
[27:36] Speaker 1: when it mattered most, when the lights were brightest, when
[27:40] Speaker 1: his back was against the wall, he was nails. And
[27:44] Speaker 1: he was nails against, you pointed this out, man coverage.
[27:47] Speaker 1: When he saw man coverage and he was able to
[27:49] Speaker 1: notice that little separation with his receivers, he gave him
[27:52] Speaker 1: a chance. And a lot of times it was dimes,
[27:54] Speaker 1: it was dots, it was whatever you want to call it.
[27:57] Speaker 1: He put up the points. He got them there. They
[27:59] Speaker 1: almost got this win. I was very, very impressed with
[28:02] Speaker 1: how he was able to turn it around and have
[28:03] Speaker 1: that short-term memory in this game.
[28:05] Speaker 2: Yeah, the man coverage aspect of it. The Lions ran
[28:09] Speaker 2: a lot of man last year. They're just a man-heavy team.
[28:11] Speaker 2: Not necessarily good enough personnel to do it for the
[28:15] Speaker 2: last couple years, but they certainly wanted to. And really,
[28:19] Speaker 2: if you're seeing... The tale of two halves, to me,
[28:22] Speaker 2: it's about the amount of man coverage he was facing
[28:24] Speaker 2: because the Lions are not good at man coverage. And
[28:26] Speaker 2: they kept doing it in the second half. I found
[28:29] Speaker 2: this very curious. So I do have a stat here. 12.5%
[28:33] Speaker 2: man rate from Detroit in the first half. 35% man
[28:35] Speaker 2: rate from Detroit in the second half. Man, that's a lot. Yeah.
[28:38] Speaker 1: Huge jump.
[28:38] Speaker 2: So I was like, why? It was working. Why would
[28:41] Speaker 2: you suddenly play a bunch of man coverage? What I
[28:43] Speaker 2: found is that it was actually field position dependent. So
[28:47] Speaker 2: when the Saints started getting down into the red zone
[28:49] Speaker 2: in the second half, the Lions started switching to their
[28:52] Speaker 2: red zone defense, which is very man-heavy. 87% coverage rate
[28:58] Speaker 2: in the red zone. They had three touchdowns against man
[29:02] Speaker 2: coverage in the red zone.
[29:03] Speaker 1: So, I mean, that's just the philosophy of the back
[29:07] Speaker 1: of the end zone is an extra defender.
[29:08] Speaker 2: Basically.
[29:09] Speaker 1: They're just saying be aggressive. But Shuck's best ball is
[29:12] Speaker 1: a fade. I'm with you. It obviously didn't work.
[29:17] Speaker 2: The first one was a great fade. I mean, it
[29:19] Speaker 2: left it a little bit long, but receiver made a
[29:20] Speaker 2: good play. He hit a corner of the back pylon,
[29:24] Speaker 2: and there's a huge slot fade late in the game against, man,
[29:28] Speaker 2: I think it was Devele off the top of my head.
[29:29] Speaker 1: I think so, yeah.
[29:31] Speaker 2: And when he started getting these man coverage looks, as
[29:33] Speaker 2: they started getting deeper into the Lions territory, where for
[29:36] Speaker 2: whatever reason, they're very zone-averse there. They want to play man,
[29:39] Speaker 2: especially zeros. They really want to play zero in the
[29:41] Speaker 2: red zone. Super aggressive defense. It kind of clarified the
[29:45] Speaker 2: look for him. The two picks that he threw in
[29:47] Speaker 2: the first half, it was against zone. I have no
[29:49] Speaker 2: idea what he was looking at. I looked at the
[29:50] Speaker 2: All-22 five minutes after the play was over. I was like,
[29:54] Speaker 2: I don't have an explanation for those picks. He just
[29:57] Speaker 2: didn't see the field well. And then when you clarify
[30:00] Speaker 2: the look for him with man coverage in the second
[30:02] Speaker 2: half where he's like, I have a one-on-one here. I'm
[30:04] Speaker 2: going to throw this one-on-one because if there's one thing
[30:07] Speaker 2: that he's really good at, it's putting the ball where
[30:08] Speaker 2: he wants it to be.
[30:09] Speaker 3: Yes.
[30:10] Speaker 2: Especially outside the numbers.
[30:11] Speaker 3: Yeah.
[30:12] Speaker 2: So if you don't confuse him pre and post snap
[30:15] Speaker 2: and you let him just make a throw, he's going
[30:17] Speaker 2: to make the throw. So to me, it's kind of
[30:19] Speaker 2: on Detroit, honestly, for kind of letting off the gas
[30:24] Speaker 2: a little bit. I would have just continued doing what worked,
[30:26] Speaker 2: which was playing zone coverage doing a lot of post-nap
[30:29] Speaker 2: rotation and then just trying to slow down his clock
[30:31] Speaker 2: enough for Aiden to get there it was working I
[30:34] Speaker 2: think it's a lesson for other teams to take away
[30:36] Speaker 2: when preparing for the Saints of like oh if we
[30:38] Speaker 2: take away that clarity of man coverage let's make him
[30:42] Speaker 2: beat us.
[30:43] Speaker 1: Yeah and I mean the whole goal of what you
[30:46] Speaker 1: want to do with young quarterbacks is you want to
[30:48] Speaker 1: make them think because you know they'll they'll hitch a
[30:51] Speaker 1: couple extra times they'll hesitate they won't be looking exactly
[30:55] Speaker 1: where they need to like I think it was one
[30:58] Speaker 1: of the interceptions that Shuck had early. It was a
[31:05] Speaker 1: read route with him, and I cannot remember if it
[31:07] Speaker 1: was a receiver or a tight end. But they just
[31:09] Speaker 1: totally read it wrong. The tight end was going to
[31:11] Speaker 1: the outside. Shuck thought he was going to sit right
[31:14] Speaker 1: where he was when he was cutting. And the safety
[31:17] Speaker 1: was already coming down because the safety was already there.
[31:19] Speaker 1: And Shuck just throws it, and it's an interception. And
[31:22] Speaker 1: those are the things where he's struggling because you're making
[31:25] Speaker 1: him think.
[31:26] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[31:26] Speaker 1: When you play man coverage, a lot of times you're
[31:29] Speaker 1: not forcing quarterbacks to think, especially when you're playing zero.
[31:33] Speaker 1: He's just looking across the board and saying, okay, all right.
[31:38] Speaker 1: I know, because at that point, you don't have to
[31:41] Speaker 1: second guess yourself about what's happening on the defense. You
[31:44] Speaker 1: only have to think about the route that your wide
[31:46] Speaker 1: receiver is running. That's it. You can lock in on
[31:49] Speaker 1: a guy. It doesn't matter. You're timing it up. You're
[31:51] Speaker 1: seeing when the separation is going to be there, and
[31:53] Speaker 1: you're going to give him a chance. So there's not
[31:56] Speaker 1: enough thinking involved. And I agree with you. I believe
[31:59] Speaker 1: that that was part of the catalyst of what really
[32:03] Speaker 1: just let Tyler Shuck catch fire is he just didn't
[32:07] Speaker 1: have to think as much. And he got to play
[32:09] Speaker 1: very free with a heck of an arm. And obviously
[32:12] Speaker 1: we saw what the results can be with them almost
[32:15] Speaker 1: taking down Detroit in Detroit.
[32:17] Speaker 2: Now, one of the reasons why they didn't take down Detroit,
[32:18] Speaker 2: because I want to be a little positive about them too,
[32:21] Speaker 2: Jameer Gibbs.
[32:22] Speaker 1: Not bad.
[32:23] Speaker 2: The MVP candidate... that we highlighted in our season preview,
[32:27] Speaker 2: is off to a good start.
[32:29] Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely.
[32:30] Speaker 2: If even most games are like that, he's going to
[32:33] Speaker 2: end up with 2,000 yards from scrimmage.
[32:35] Speaker 1: Yeah, what was his final yards from scrimmage here in
[32:38] Speaker 1: this game?
[32:39] Speaker 2: What do we have? I think it was like 160.
[32:41] Speaker 2: Here it is. So he had 156 rushing yards on
[32:43] Speaker 2: 29 attempts.
[32:45] Speaker 1: And then he had five targets.
[32:55] Speaker 1: Five catches for 30 yards. So it was 186 total
[32:59] Speaker 1: yards on the day for him. Two touchdowns. And, yeah,
[33:02] Speaker 1: he also ran 17 routes to go along with 29 carries.
[33:06] Speaker 2: They paid him. They're going to use him.
[33:08] Speaker 1: They paid him, and they are going to use him. And, obviously,
[33:10] Speaker 1: it's a great thing when you do use a player
[33:11] Speaker 1: that does that talent.
[33:12] Speaker 2: He was great. Penne was great. Amon Ross scored. Like,
[33:16] Speaker 2: all the usual suspects. I mean, Jamison, he had a
[33:19] Speaker 2: bad drop. But all the usual guys that we praise
[33:22] Speaker 2: for Detroit's offense showed up.
[33:24] Speaker 3: Yep.
[33:25] Speaker 2: You know, Blake Miller.
[33:27] Speaker 1: My guy. My guy.
[33:29] Speaker 2: First start. Not bad. You know, we worry about the
[33:31] Speaker 2: health of the interior because they're already down two-thirds of
[33:35] Speaker 2: it as far as what we had a month ago.
[33:37] Speaker 1: I saw Mahogany got hurt. I didn't check on that afterwards.
[33:42] Speaker 1: So I don't know the severity of it.
[33:43] Speaker 2: But Mays already went down.
[33:44] Speaker 1: Right. Not great.
[33:46] Speaker 2: We worry about that. But I think Detroit's offense is
[33:48] Speaker 2: going to be fine. What I worry about is the defense.
[33:51] Speaker 2: Can they find a solution to that? that isn't man
[33:53] Speaker 2: coverage because I don't think they can play.
[33:55] Speaker 1: Are they going to be willing to?
[33:56] Speaker 2: Maybe a good way to say it too. They're very stubborn.
[33:58] Speaker 1: The Buccaneers and the Cincinnati Bengals, reluctantly for me, as
[34:03] Speaker 1: somebody born just south of Tampa, Florida, talking about this game,
[34:06] Speaker 1: but hey, I want to give credit to Cincinnati's offensive line.
[34:08] Speaker 1: And I want to give credit to their offensive line
[34:10] Speaker 1: because it just feels like the narrative has been so
[34:13] Speaker 1: old and tired that Cincinnati doesn't have a good offensive line.
[34:15] Speaker 1: They've never invested in no line. They can't protect Joe Burrow. Look,
[34:19] Speaker 1: This is a revamped Buccaneers defensive line that has some
[34:22] Speaker 1: really good players on it. And outside of Kalijah Cansey
[34:25] Speaker 1: getting the better of Dylan Fairchild and quite a few
[34:27] Speaker 1: one-on-one matchups that they had because Cansey was great in
[34:30] Speaker 1: this game, I thought Cincinnati's offensive line played very, very well.
[34:34] Speaker 1: Outside of Fairchild, every other Bengals offensive lineman had a
[34:38] Speaker 1: pressure percentage below 8.1% per next-gen stats. Specifically, Amarius Mims,
[34:44] Speaker 1: who we talked about as really maybe taking that leap
[34:47] Speaker 1: as that top offensive tackle there on the team, only
[34:49] Speaker 1: allowed two pressures on 37 total dropbacks. So for me,
[34:55] Speaker 1: that was a big time story for me. There's a
[34:57] Speaker 1: lot of things to kind of take away from this one. Look,
[34:59] Speaker 1: if you're going to turn the ball over four times,
[35:01] Speaker 1: it's really hard to beat anybody. I think the Bucs were,
[35:03] Speaker 1: I don't want to say lucky because it was their
[35:05] Speaker 1: own talent to come back in this game, but for
[35:08] Speaker 1: them to even make it as close as they did
[35:10] Speaker 1: with four turnovers is, um, A credit to them, but
[35:12] Speaker 1: also a reality that you just cannot be doing that.
[35:16] Speaker 1: But man, Cincinnati's offensive line, I thought did a really,
[35:18] Speaker 1: really good job in this game. And it's a great
[35:21] Speaker 1: sign for what could be the ceiling of this Bengals
[35:25] Speaker 1: offense and just overall this team.
[35:27] Speaker 2: If I'm a Bengals fan, I'm really happy that we
[35:29] Speaker 2: won in a way that wasn't the usual, right? This wasn't, oh,
[35:34] Speaker 2: we're calling 989 over and over again.
[35:36] Speaker 1: Yeah.
[35:37] Speaker 2: Jamar, it's T. Yeah. It's Joe. Yeah. You know, it's
[35:39] Speaker 2: 35 to 33. It wasn't like that. The pass rush
[35:43] Speaker 2: played really well. Cassius and Boye both had four pressures each.
[35:48] Speaker 2: The first strip sack six that Cincy got was actually...
[35:53] Speaker 2: Way to enunciate that. I could see the tongue twister.
[35:56] Speaker 2: I was working through it.
[35:57] Speaker 1: You were practicing that in the mirror. I could see,
[35:59] Speaker 1: and it was great. I'm giving you your flowers here.
[36:01] Speaker 1: That was good.
[36:01] Speaker 2: But it started off with a Boye-Amashe pressure against a
[36:05] Speaker 2: very good right tackle in Luka Deki. Yeah. So he
[36:08] Speaker 2: flushed Baker. The OTB route was open. Baker would have
[36:11] Speaker 2: thrown it. if he didn't have to step up away.
[36:14] Speaker 2: And so then, you know, the windows close, unfortunately. So
[36:16] Speaker 2: then you got to move out of the pocket, try
[36:18] Speaker 2: to create a play, you know, just like a second phase,
[36:22] Speaker 2: but he got ran down from behind, stripped, ran it back. Like,
[36:25] Speaker 2: but that all started because boy, they got the pressure, right?
[36:28] Speaker 2: The guy that invested in this off season.
[36:29] Speaker 1: Yeah.
[36:30] Speaker 2: Cassius got four pressures. He even got around Tristan Wirfs
[36:33] Speaker 2: one time. Yeah. I'm like, dude, if you can get,
[36:36] Speaker 2: if you can run the arc on Tristan Wirfs and
[36:38] Speaker 2: flatten at an eight yard depth, Most of the time,
[36:40] Speaker 2: Tristan's going to push you to 10. You're not going
[36:42] Speaker 2: to get a shot at the quarterback. You've got a
[36:43] Speaker 2: pressure running the ring at eight yards on Tristan Wirth.
[36:47] Speaker 2: That's a major win.
[36:48] Speaker 1: A lot of the Bucs' O-line stats didn't really look
[36:51] Speaker 1: good in this game. You know, when you look at
[36:53] Speaker 1: them in next-gen, I think a little bit of it
[36:56] Speaker 1: is skewed because, to me, the offensive line and Mayfield
[37:01] Speaker 1: just kind of weren't on the same page. Like, with
[37:03] Speaker 1: how long he wanted to hold onto the ball, where
[37:06] Speaker 1: he wanted to step up, it just felt as though
[37:09] Speaker 1: They really were not very cohesive. The offensive line just
[37:12] Speaker 1: didn't have a good feel for where the ball was
[37:14] Speaker 1: and where Mayfield was, I think, all day long. Two
[37:17] Speaker 1: interesting notes for the Bucs offense in this game that
[37:20] Speaker 1: I think are worth noting moving forward. Mayfield had 12
[37:25] Speaker 1: passes behind the line of scrimmage in this game. which
[37:27] Speaker 1: was tied for the second most in a single game
[37:29] Speaker 1: in the Mayfield era that he has been with the Buccaneers.
[37:32] Speaker 1: So you think of all of the different offensive coordinators
[37:34] Speaker 1: that the Buccaneers have had while Mayfield has been there.
[37:36] Speaker 2: Like four of them. Yeah.
[37:37] Speaker 1: I mean, you can barely count it on one hand.
[37:40] Speaker 1: I wonder, Hey, is this sort of a lean into
[37:43] Speaker 1: the Zach Robinson version of what we're seeing here, where
[37:45] Speaker 1: it's a lot of stuff at or behind the line
[37:48] Speaker 1: of scrimmage. They're really going to invest a little bit
[37:49] Speaker 1: more in the screen game or the running backs. Now,
[37:51] Speaker 1: you know, maybe even from a fantasy perspective, are they
[37:54] Speaker 1: going to get more involved in the screen game and
[37:56] Speaker 1: in the passing game? Um, And then I think they
[37:58] Speaker 1: got to get Ted Hurst the ball a little bit more.
[37:59] Speaker 1: Ted Hurst didn't have a single target, didn't have a
[38:01] Speaker 1: single catch until the fourth quarter, but caught all three
[38:03] Speaker 1: of his targets. And he had the highest QBR of
[38:06] Speaker 1: any of the wide receivers in this game. So I
[38:08] Speaker 1: think it might be time to get Ted Hurst involved
[38:10] Speaker 1: in the offense a little bit more there from Tampa
[38:12] Speaker 1: side of things.
[38:13] Speaker 2: And I think that'll just make Emeka more effective, right?
[38:15] Speaker 2: Because Hurst is really more of an X than Emeka is.
[38:18] Speaker 2: So if Hurst is just like, that's the pillar that
[38:21] Speaker 2: we put there at X, he's on the line of scrimmage.
[38:23] Speaker 2: We can move around Emeka. We can move around everybody else.
[38:26] Speaker 2: but that's what it revolves around, that fence post in
[38:30] Speaker 2: the ground. I think it can make their overall pass
[38:32] Speaker 2: game better. I think the talent they have on the
[38:36] Speaker 2: offensive line and at the skill positions, this should be
[38:39] Speaker 2: a good offense. They just need to not turn it
[38:41] Speaker 2: over four times. If I was the Bengals, I'm very
[38:46] Speaker 2: encouraged by the pass rush. I'm encouraged by the offensive line.
[38:49] Speaker 2: I'm encouraged by the fact that Jamar was held, not
[38:53] Speaker 2: even in check, Jamar was didn't do anything in the game.
[38:56] Speaker 2: And they still were okay.
[38:57] Speaker 1: Which you got to feel good about if you're the Bengals.
[38:59] Speaker 2: Yeah. It means we don't have to have him go off. Right.
[39:03] Speaker 2: And also, by the way, Jamar didn't do anything. That
[39:06] Speaker 2: was largely because of the bucked corners that we talked about.
[39:08] Speaker 2: Which is a big question mark for them. We were
[39:10] Speaker 2: worried about it.
[39:10] Speaker 3: Yeah.
[39:10] Speaker 2: They did okay. They did do okay.
[39:12] Speaker 1: Yeah.
[39:12] Speaker 3: No doubt.
[39:13] Speaker 2: I mean, there was a whole bunch of individual matchups.
[39:17] Speaker 2: I was looking at the matchup data on NextGenStats. So
[39:20] Speaker 2: Keontae Scott matched up with him 10 times.
[39:21] Speaker 1: That's a lot for a rookie.
[39:24] Speaker 2: He gave up the only catch that went for any yardage.
[39:26] Speaker 2: He gave up one catch for 16, and then when
[39:29] Speaker 2: he got... targeted against Benjamin Morrison, the other young corner
[39:32] Speaker 2: that we were excited about, he lost four yards. And
[39:35] Speaker 2: every other Bucs corner didn't give up a single catch
[39:38] Speaker 2: against him. So if we're giving up two for 12
[39:40] Speaker 2: against one of the three best receivers in football, I
[39:43] Speaker 2: feel a lot better about the Bucs corners now than
[39:45] Speaker 2: I did A day ago. I agree. I agree with you.
[39:47] Speaker 1: We got to touch on the Cardinals and the Chargers
[39:49] Speaker 1: because this was the game where I think the Chargers,
[39:53] Speaker 1: whether it was from win probability or odds to win
[39:56] Speaker 1: this game, whatever it was, the Chargers kind of run
[39:58] Speaker 1: away here. And the Cardinals come away with the victory
[40:03] Speaker 1: here in SoFi. 26-14 is the final score here of
[40:06] Speaker 1: this one. Overall thoughts on sort of how this happens.
[40:10] Speaker 1: I mean, is this a tip of the cap to
[40:11] Speaker 1: the Arizona Cardinals and the Mike LaFleur era? Or is
[40:15] Speaker 1: it more of, okay, Chargers, this is not good here.
[40:18] Speaker 1: What's your bigger takeaway here from this game?
[40:20] Speaker 2: So the NextGenStats win probability model had this at 80%
[40:25] Speaker 2: in favor of the Chargers.
[40:27] Speaker 1: Which, to our credit... We both said, ugh, I don't
[40:31] Speaker 1: like that.
[40:32] Speaker 2: We were like, 80%?
[40:34] Speaker 1: I mean, 60 maybe. I believe 60, but 80? With
[40:38] Speaker 1: how potent this Cardinals offense was last season? What, was
[40:41] Speaker 1: that just going to go poof? Gone?
[40:43] Speaker 2: I think potent, sort of. Inefficient through volume, I think
[40:48] Speaker 2: they put up a lot. But you look at the.
[40:51] Speaker 1: James Harden's still an all-star. James Harden's still getting paid.
[40:56] Speaker 1: Volume shooter, baby. But if you look at the... Beyond
[40:59] Speaker 1: empty calories, right? If you look at the substance that
[41:02] Speaker 1: they added... on the offensive line, in the backfield, because
[41:06] Speaker 1: we love Jeremiah Love. They made additions to the offensive
[41:09] Speaker 1: line this offseason, bringing in Sam Allen. Unfortunately, Besantis got injured,
[41:12] Speaker 1: but they made an actual effort to improve the offensive line.
[41:15] Speaker 1: Quarterback is what quarterback is, but we said if Jacoby
[41:18] Speaker 1: Versace doesn't lose the game, there's.
[41:20] Speaker 2: So much talent around him with the receivers. Trey McBride,
[41:23] Speaker 2: you have one of the best tight ends in football.
[41:25] Speaker 2: You have a great back. You have an improved offensive line.
[41:27] Speaker 2: We knew they could put up points, even against what
[41:29] Speaker 2: we think is still going to be a very good
[41:30] Speaker 2: Chargers defense. It was just can the Cardinals' defense and
[41:35] Speaker 2: special teams still be on that level where the offense
[41:39] Speaker 2: can score enough and still win the game? They were.
[41:42] Speaker 1: Yes, yes. And I thought that the Cardinals' offense was
[41:45] Speaker 1: also much more efficient and regulated, it feels like, than
[41:52] Speaker 1: what the Chargers were. We spent, so many people spent
[41:55] Speaker 1: all offseason just talking about the what if of Mike
[41:58] Speaker 1: McDaniel's offense with the Chargers and Justin Herbert. And there
[42:00] Speaker 1: were moments where it was good. but it was not consistent.
[42:03] Speaker 1: And I think the time of possession speaks to that alone.
[42:06] Speaker 1: Cardinals time of possession, 37 minutes, 31 seconds. Chargers, 22 minutes,
[42:12] Speaker 1: 29 seconds. When you look at third and fourth down,
[42:16] Speaker 1: the Chargers, EPA per play, bottom eight in the NFL
[42:19] Speaker 1: so far this week. We got a couple of games
[42:21] Speaker 1: left to finish up, but like bottom eight in the
[42:23] Speaker 1: league when it came to converting on those third and
[42:25] Speaker 1: fourth downs. I think specifically the big point to note
[42:30] Speaker 1: here with the Chargers though, is how night and day
[42:34] Speaker 1: different in a bad way this offense was when Ladd-McConkie
[42:38] Speaker 1: got hurt. When Ladd went out in the third quarter,
[42:43] Speaker 1: we can look at on-off splits with next-gen. With Ladd-McConkie
[42:49] Speaker 1: on the field, they had an EPA per play of
[42:54] Speaker 1: 0.12 and 8.9 yards per pass average. When Ladd-McConkie was
[43:01] Speaker 1: not on the field, It went from 8.9 yards per
[43:04] Speaker 1: pass average to a 3.9. Five whole yards.
[43:09] Speaker 2: It's not functional.
[43:10] Speaker 1: And the EPA per play went from a positive to
[43:12] Speaker 1: a negative. Negative 0.61. Herbert had no chemistry with any
[43:18] Speaker 1: other receiver that was not named Ladd-McConkie. That's worrisome.
[43:23] Speaker 2: I just....
[43:25] Speaker 1: The Chargers.
[43:27] Speaker 1: Always feel like they're one injury away from catastrophe. And unfortunately,
[43:32] Speaker 1: they are. Well, unfortunately, this team has has suffered those injuries.
[43:35] Speaker 1: So we have seen a lot of the downturn in
[43:38] Speaker 1: the spiral. But like, you got to be deeper than that, man.
[43:42] Speaker 2: And I think Herbert, he sensed he sensed that they
[43:47] Speaker 2: were in trouble late in the game. And he pressed
[43:50] Speaker 2: like that interception that he had for sure. And they
[43:53] Speaker 2: set it up well, right? It's a quarters beater. It's okay.
[43:55] Speaker 2: We're going to pin this safety down. We've got the
[43:57] Speaker 2: vertical behind it. But Roy Lopez got a pressure right
[44:02] Speaker 2: up the middle and it kind of flushed Herbert to
[44:05] Speaker 2: the right. Wingard on the backside didn't have any vertical
[44:08] Speaker 2: threat to his side. So he was free to go hunt.
[44:09] Speaker 2: That's how quarters coverage works.
[44:11] Speaker 1: Easy.
[44:11] Speaker 2: And when Herbert's rolling to his right, he's especially thinking like, oh,
[44:14] Speaker 2: I'm just going to follow his eyes. I'm going to
[44:16] Speaker 2: flow with him. Herbert's eyes took him right to the
[44:19] Speaker 2: ball because he had no other responsibility holding him on
[44:22] Speaker 2: the backside. And when Herbert's moving, the defense is going
[44:24] Speaker 2: to move with him.
[44:25] Speaker 1: It was a mistake.
[44:26] Speaker 2: He was first and 10 in the fourth quarter.
[44:29] Speaker 1: He was frustrated.
[44:30] Speaker 2: He was very frustrated. He was very frustrated. And I
[44:34] Speaker 2: think part of it is he was not getting enough...
[44:39] Speaker 2: from the third phase of the game, and I think
[44:41] Speaker 2: he felt that pressure, that third phase being special teams.
[44:44] Speaker 2: This is NFL Pro, so we will talk about special
[44:46] Speaker 2: teams EPA per play. That, to me, was really what
[44:49] Speaker 2: kick-started that pressure that led to the Herbert interception. That
[44:55] Speaker 2: punt block, that was plus four in EPA. A special
[45:00] Speaker 2: teams play added four expected points for the Cardinals in
[45:03] Speaker 2: this game, or took away four expected points, however you
[45:06] Speaker 2: want to phrase it. The Cardinals' special teams was dead
[45:09] Speaker 2: last in the NFL in EPA per play last year.
[45:12] Speaker 2: They were sixth best in the NFL this week, as
[45:14] Speaker 2: of us recording this. We'll see what happens with Monday
[45:16] Speaker 2: Night Football. But the fact that they had four massive
[45:20] Speaker 2: special teams plays, you had the punt block, you had
[45:22] Speaker 2: really good kickoff coverage from them, you had good punt
[45:26] Speaker 2: coverage from them. Like, repeatedly, the Chargers would take these kickoffs,
[45:30] Speaker 2: get to the 23-24, late in the game got to
[45:32] Speaker 2: the 13. And I think if you're looking at All
[45:37] Speaker 2: the hidden yardage or lack of yardage they were getting
[45:39] Speaker 2: on special teams that Herbert then had to make up
[45:42] Speaker 2: because they were getting bad field position. That just put
[45:45] Speaker 2: so much pressure on him. It led to that crucial mistake.
[45:48] Speaker 2: They were already kind of in trouble before that. And
[45:51] Speaker 2: that's how you lose a game that you're quote unquote 80%
[45:55] Speaker 2: supposed to win.
[45:55] Speaker 1: Yes.
[45:56] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[45:57] Speaker 1: Week one, it's a beautiful mystery to solve that you try.
[46:01] Speaker 1: And obviously, I think that it takes a couple more
[46:03] Speaker 1: weeks to be able to do that. We could sit
[46:06] Speaker 1: here and honestly talk all night about week one takeaways
[46:08] Speaker 1: because it feels like there's so many of them. There's
[46:10] Speaker 1: so many different directions that you could go. But we
[46:12] Speaker 1: got to dive into the tape before we get to that.
[46:14] Speaker 1: These were some of the numbers that really stood out
[46:16] Speaker 1: to us when we were watching live and we were
[46:18] Speaker 1: working with. the NGS group, which, man, shout out to
[46:20] Speaker 1: that team. Do an incredible job. Hopefully you guys already
[46:23] Speaker 1: understand from just this first week one reaction show how
[46:27] Speaker 1: powerful that NGS team is and how fun these shows
[46:31] Speaker 1: are going to be. that we're reacting to all the
[46:34] Speaker 1: week one madness and everything. So the next show that
[46:36] Speaker 1: we have for you guys coming to you on Friday,
[46:38] Speaker 1: like we said, we're going to get to the tape.
[46:39] Speaker 1: So we're going to have some X's and O's breakdowns,
[46:42] Speaker 1: obviously more numbers to talk about, you know, what we
[46:45] Speaker 1: saw this week, what we think we're going to see
[46:47] Speaker 1: in week two. And then obviously as the season goes
[46:49] Speaker 1: on as well, we're going to take a look at
[46:51] Speaker 1: those league trends on both sides of the ball. Sometimes
[46:54] Speaker 1: the third phase as well. We're going to take a
[46:55] Speaker 1: look at those league trends, see where anybody's getting an advantage.
[46:58] Speaker 1: So make sure that you guys are subscribed to the
[47:00] Speaker 1: channel here at NFL pro and to make sure that
[47:03] Speaker 1: you can come back and hang out with us every
[47:04] Speaker 1: single episode. For Brett Coleman, I'm Trevor Sykema saying thank
[47:07] Speaker 1: you guys for watching. We'll see you guys on Friday.
[47:09] Speaker 2: That's it for our Week 1 Reaction Show. Thank you
[47:11] Speaker 2: so much for listening. And we'll be back Friday to
[47:14] Speaker 2: get you ready for all the Week 2 action.
[47:16] Speaker 1: Listen to NFL Pro on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
[47:19] Speaker 1: or wherever you get your podcasts.

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