# NFL Pro Week 6 Preview

An episode of [NFL: The Insiders](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1543090622), 15 Oct 2026, 1 h 22 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/f10d0743-9ff9-4fde-8286-b4b200dd74e1/64433e92-7407-4d7c-871e-b4e4016a7e26/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=3e412703-0644-468e-9001-ae390070e4db

Week 6 is here, and we're breaking down the biggest games on the slate to find out which teams are contenders and which ones are due for a reality check. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: Welcome to the NFL Pro Week 6 Preview Show. Thank
[0:03] Speaker 1: you for listening on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or
[0:06] Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Be sure to follow and
[0:09] Speaker 1: subscribe to the show. Welcome back, NFL pro baby.
[0:27] Speaker 2: Brett Coleman, Trevor Sycamore here with you guys to preview
[0:30] Speaker 2: week six in the NFL, and we're getting right to it.
[0:33] Speaker 2: We got some big games that we're going to preview
[0:35] Speaker 2: here on this show, but we got a couple of
[0:36] Speaker 2: extra topics as well, which is why we're kind of
[0:38] Speaker 2: jumping into things right away. We're going to take a
[0:40] Speaker 2: look at the 2024 wide receiver class and talk about, regrade, redraft,
[0:45] Speaker 2: and just have a conversation about the wide receiver position
[0:47] Speaker 2: that was supposed to be one of the best we've
[0:49] Speaker 2: ever seen.
[0:50] Speaker 1: Not so much.
[0:51] Speaker 3: Why?
[0:51] Speaker 2: We're going to get to your fan questions as well.
[0:54] Speaker 2: Jam-packed show here, but Brett, let's start with a game preview.
[0:57] Speaker 2: Let's talk about the Buffalo Bills and the Las Vegas
[0:59] Speaker 2: Raiders doing battle this weekend. Bills coming off of a
[1:03] Speaker 2: thrilling overtime win. Snap by Ferguson, hold by Doman, kick
[1:07] Speaker 2: on the way, and it is good! And the Raiders
[1:11] Speaker 2: coming off of a loss this week, a bad loss
[1:13] Speaker 2: to the New England Patriots.
[1:14] Speaker 1: We're not happy with what happened today, and we have
[1:16] Speaker 1: to go do something about it.
[1:17] Speaker 2: We've got to go fix it and move on. How
[1:18] Speaker 2: do you see this one shaping out, and where do
[1:19] Speaker 2: you want to start with the discussion in this game?
[1:21] Speaker 1: I couldn't believe that that was Josh Allen's first overtime
[1:24] Speaker 1: win of his career. He was 0-7 before that.
[1:26] Speaker 2: Dude, you texted the group that, and I was like,
[1:28] Speaker 2: that can't be true. And, you know, on the side,
[1:31] Speaker 2: I went to our NGS people, and I was like,
[1:33] Speaker 2: Brett's got to be lying about this, right?
[1:34] Speaker 1: And they're like, no, we were in the numbers. It's
[1:36] Speaker 1: his first overtime win. And it was still dicey. Like,
[1:39] Speaker 1: he very easily could have gone 0 for 8. To me,
[1:42] Speaker 1: the big difference in that game, ultimately, was his legs.
[1:45] Speaker 1: It wasn't his arm. And this is something that we've
[1:47] Speaker 1: seen throughout Josh Allen's career, his ability to just break
[1:51] Speaker 1: a game wide open when all else fails and there's
[1:54] Speaker 1: nothing open down the field. If you lose track of
[1:56] Speaker 1: him in the pocket or if you miss a single
[1:58] Speaker 1: tackle of him, he can easily turn it into 10, 20,
[2:01] Speaker 1: 30 yards. That's ultimately what happened with the Rams. If
[2:04] Speaker 1: you're looking at season-long stats so far, and we're only
[2:07] Speaker 1: five weeks in, He leads the league in scramble rushing
[2:10] Speaker 1: yards at 202. Most of them came in that game.
[2:13] Speaker 1: As well as rushing EPA on scrambles at plus 22.7,
[2:18] Speaker 1: which is absurd for only five weeks into the season.
[2:21] Speaker 1: He's ranked top six in scramble rush yards in every
[2:25] Speaker 1: single season since he's joined the league. He is one
[2:28] Speaker 1: of the best scrambling quarterbacks ever. I would put him
[2:31] Speaker 1: up there with Steve Young, Michael Vick, all these great
[2:34] Speaker 1: rushing threats. He's up there with any of them. And
[2:37] Speaker 1: specifically the Raiders... Looking forward to this game, they're going
[2:40] Speaker 1: to have to deal with that in a better way
[2:42] Speaker 1: than they have so far this year. They've allowed 104
[2:45] Speaker 1: scramble rush yards so far this season. That is seventh
[2:48] Speaker 1: most in the NFL. 9.5 yards per carry on scrambles,
[2:51] Speaker 1: also seventh most in the NFL. And while it's only
[2:53] Speaker 1: been 11 scrambles season long, Josh Allen could very easily
[2:57] Speaker 1: do it five or six times more. Hell, he did
[3:00] Speaker 1: it nine times against the Rams in five quarters. So
[3:03] Speaker 1: it's something that they're going to have to do better on.
[3:06] Speaker 1: And I want to show you specifically the mistakes the
[3:08] Speaker 1: Rams made against Allen, which allowed him to scramble so
[3:11] Speaker 1: much in the first place, as well as how some
[3:13] Speaker 1: better defenses in the past have kept that in check.
[3:16] Speaker 2: And Brett, this matchup against the Raiders is interesting because
[3:20] Speaker 2: you talk about, okay, how do you handle quarterbacks that
[3:23] Speaker 2: have that option to make plays with their legs and
[3:26] Speaker 2: a lot of times it's all right well does this
[3:28] Speaker 2: go into how much we feel like we can call
[3:31] Speaker 2: man coverage because man coverage especially if you're playing you
[3:33] Speaker 2: know press man coverage which we saw the Raiders do
[3:35] Speaker 2: a lot of last week your backs to the ball
[3:37] Speaker 2: and anytime you got a lot of defenders with their
[3:39] Speaker 2: backs to the ball because you've got vertical routes going
[3:41] Speaker 2: downfield you're playing in man coverage well then Josh Allen
[3:43] Speaker 2: just goes okay I got one guy maybe to beat
[3:47] Speaker 2: and then I'm getting you know 10-15 yards or maybe
[3:50] Speaker 2: even more than that that's when it's advantageous for those
[3:52] Speaker 2: really athletic quarterbacks. And so we talked in the reaction
[3:56] Speaker 2: show earlier this week about how the Raiders game plan, unfortunately,
[4:00] Speaker 2: was kind of perfect for Drake May to take advantage
[4:02] Speaker 2: of it. And I kind of think that they have
[4:04] Speaker 2: to pivot against Josh Allen because Josh Allen presents a
[4:07] Speaker 2: lot of the same issues for them. So I'm very
[4:10] Speaker 2: interested to see how the Raiders are going to change
[4:13] Speaker 2: up their defense this week as opposed to last week
[4:16] Speaker 2: because Drake May killed him in that area. But I
[4:18] Speaker 2: do kind of want to touch on Ashen Jenty because
[4:20] Speaker 2: he is absolutely just not as efficient or explosive as
[4:25] Speaker 2: he was last year. Now, he did suffer the ankle
[4:28] Speaker 2: sprain earlier this year in training camp, and Kubiak after
[4:32] Speaker 2: the game was kind of saying, yeah, he's gutting it out.
[4:34] Speaker 2: He didn't straight up say like, yeah, he's still playing
[4:36] Speaker 2: super hurt, but he was saying that he was gutting
[4:38] Speaker 2: it out. He was toughing it out to be out there.
[4:40] Speaker 2: But I have kind of noticed, you see the missed
[4:42] Speaker 2: tackle rate number is almost down a full 10% for
[4:45] Speaker 2: him this year. The yards per carry average is also
[4:49] Speaker 2: down for him. It's not all of his fault. There's
[4:52] Speaker 2: some offensive line issues as well. The yards before contact
[4:55] Speaker 2: average are also down. So I went back and I
[4:58] Speaker 2: looked at last game against the Patriots and I did
[5:01] Speaker 2: find some hints to.
[5:02] Speaker 1: Say maybe he is a little bit more hurt than
[5:05] Speaker 1: we thought. So taking that into account, right? Jenty isn't
[5:10] Speaker 1: entirely the Boise State version of Gentee that we know
[5:13] Speaker 1: and love, or even last year's version of Gentee that
[5:15] Speaker 1: was really just fighting through everything at the same time
[5:18] Speaker 1: because their offensive line was so bad and it felt
[5:20] Speaker 1: like Ashton Gentee versus the world, which it kind of was.
[5:23] Speaker 1: If he's not 100%, it certainly does seem like this
[5:27] Speaker 1: whole offense is just Brock, save us.
[5:30] Speaker 4: And it's worked.
[5:31] Speaker 3: It's caught!
[5:33] Speaker 1: Remarkable! Bowers has the touchdown! Like that has worked. He's
[5:37] Speaker 1: the only player to rank in the top five in
[5:39] Speaker 1: yards per route run from the slot and out wide,
[5:43] Speaker 1: which he's not really a tight end. If we're looking
[5:45] Speaker 1: at how a traditional tight end is used, like he's
[5:47] Speaker 1: basically a receiver, but he is arguably the most effective
[5:51] Speaker 1: receiver in the league so far this year. 3.2 yards
[5:54] Speaker 1: per route run from the slot, which is fifth 3.9
[5:57] Speaker 1: yards per route run out wide. That's four. That's basically
[6:00] Speaker 1: JSN numbers. He's just been absolutely absurd. And he has
[6:04] Speaker 1: been able to carry the load for this Raiders passing
[6:07] Speaker 1: game so far. The thing that I'm wondering is, okay,
[6:11] Speaker 1: if the Bills just dedicate a bracket to him, and
[6:16] Speaker 1: if we're not as worried about Jenty as maybe we
[6:19] Speaker 1: would have been in years past, just because he's clearly
[6:22] Speaker 1: not moving the same as of right now, What are
[6:25] Speaker 1: the other options the Raiders have to keep pace with
[6:28] Speaker 1: Josh Allen? Because we know they're going to have to
[6:30] Speaker 1: keep pace with Josh Allen. Do they have any other
[6:33] Speaker 1: club in the bag? That's what worries me the most
[6:35] Speaker 1: about this team.
[6:41] Speaker 2: You mentioning Brock Bauer sort of as a tight end
[6:43] Speaker 2: by position on the depth chart only, that kind of
[6:46] Speaker 2: brought up an interesting conversation when we were talking about
[6:49] Speaker 2: what we And it hasn't exactly panned out that way.
[7:03] Speaker 2: And Bowers, who's played 41.6% of his snaps from the slot, 39%
[7:09] Speaker 2: of his snaps out wide as a wide receiver, and
[7:11] Speaker 2: just 16.9% of his snaps aligned as like his true
[7:14] Speaker 2: tight end. He really might get paid like a wide receiver.
[7:17] Speaker 2: And Brett, when you look at this wide receiver class,
[7:21] Speaker 2: he might get paid the most out of all of
[7:23] Speaker 2: those wide receivers.
[7:24] Speaker 1: Marvin Harrison Jr.
[7:25] Speaker 2: Was in the news for the wrong reasons because the
[7:28] Speaker 2: team that drafted him gave up on him already and
[7:30] Speaker 2: traded him. Malik Neighbors has had the injury. Roma Dunze
[7:32] Speaker 2: has been disappointing for what we thought of him pre-draft
[7:35] Speaker 2: and where he was drafted. And that you just go
[7:37] Speaker 2: down the list. That 2024 wide receiver class, again, we
[7:40] Speaker 2: thought was going to be phenomenal.
[7:42] Speaker 1: And yet it's been disappointing.
[7:45] Speaker 2: I think that I have to use that word here
[7:46] Speaker 2: with this class.
[7:48] Speaker 1: Hell, I think I will actually go down the list.
[7:51] Speaker 1: And this is in no particular order. These are just
[7:53] Speaker 1: all the highly drafted receivers from that class. Xavier Worthy
[7:56] Speaker 1: has negative 382 receiving yards over expected since the start
[8:00] Speaker 1: of 2024. Fewest in the NFL. Roma Dunzey has the
[8:04] Speaker 1: second fewest, negative 315. So that's not good company to keep.
[8:08] Speaker 2: A.D.
[8:09] Speaker 1: Mitchell has the third fewest at negative 277. He also
[8:12] Speaker 1: has the fourth fewest receiving EPA at negative 24.6. Jalen
[8:16] Speaker 1: Polk has the sixth fewest receiving EPA. Not in the
[8:20] Speaker 1: league anymore, by the way. Marvin Harrison Jr., already been traded.
[8:23] Speaker 1: He's only the third top five pick to be traded
[8:26] Speaker 1: within his first three years with his team in the
[8:29] Speaker 1: last 17 years, so 10%. That's a very rare thing
[8:34] Speaker 1: to happen. And then specifically with Leggett, Polk, A.D. Mitchell, Odunze,
[8:38] Speaker 1: and Pearsall, their teams, if you're looking at on-off splits,
[8:42] Speaker 1: get more EPA per play with them off the field
[8:45] Speaker 1: than on so far. So it just hasn't really worked out.
[8:50] Speaker 1: I mean, Malik's been great when he's been healthy, but
[8:53] Speaker 1: there was that major injury. McConkie, again, he's been great
[8:56] Speaker 1: when he's been healthy, but it feels like he's just
[8:58] Speaker 1: perpetually banged up. So it's just... That draft class to
[9:02] Speaker 1: me is the billboard for why receiver is not exactly
[9:08] Speaker 1: a slam dunk to take in the first round. Historically speaking,
[9:11] Speaker 1: first round receivers, like their bust rate is very high
[9:14] Speaker 1: compared to say an interior offensive lineman or even a
[9:18] Speaker 1: running back. Like it's higher hit rates for those position
[9:22] Speaker 1: groups than receiver. And yet teams still feel like they're
[9:25] Speaker 1: kind of forced into taking them early because you typically
[9:28] Speaker 1: have to have three receivers on the field. And if
[9:30] Speaker 1: one gets injured, your fourth guy has to be good too.
[9:33] Speaker 1: And if two get injured, your fifth guy has to
[9:35] Speaker 1: be good. So it's a position that you need a
[9:37] Speaker 1: lot of quality at. And if you're looking at cap
[9:41] Speaker 1: percentages and how the market has grown, the receiver market
[9:44] Speaker 1: has exploded so much that you feel like you have
[9:47] Speaker 1: to get these rookie deals with five years of contract
[9:50] Speaker 1: control in the first round just to be able to
[9:52] Speaker 1: make your team or even just your offense affordable.
[9:56] Speaker 2: And I found this tweet from Dan Griff's where if
[9:59] Speaker 2: you look... at the top 10 highest paid guys at
[10:01] Speaker 2: the position the growth of that top 10 average for
[10:05] Speaker 2: wide receiver is second only to quarterbacks so this position
[10:08] Speaker 2: is not only getting paid more it's growing more at
[10:12] Speaker 2: a at a higher rate than any other position we're
[10:15] Speaker 2: talking offensive tackles edge rushers these guys that you think
[10:17] Speaker 2: just get crazy money so are wide receivers now so
[10:20] Speaker 2: now like you just said not only are you having
[10:23] Speaker 2: to pay maybe your wide receiver one, if he's one
[10:26] Speaker 2: of the best in the NFL, truly top money outside
[10:29] Speaker 2: of the quarterback position, you also have to fill these
[10:32] Speaker 2: other positions. You also want good wide receivers at these
[10:35] Speaker 2: other positions. And so it just, it is fascinating how
[10:38] Speaker 2: we get a draft like 2024 that was as disappointing
[10:44] Speaker 2: as it could have been relative to the expectations. And
[10:47] Speaker 2: yet teams are still going to draft wide receiver. Because
[10:51] Speaker 2: I think for the longest time, we've always just thought
[10:53] Speaker 2: of wide receiver as a true talent need and want
[10:58] Speaker 2: in the draft. You want to have better pass catchers.
[11:00] Speaker 2: You want to help out your quarterback. You want to
[11:01] Speaker 2: score more points. But it is much more of a
[11:04] Speaker 2: cap strategy selection as well than I think it's given
[11:08] Speaker 2: credit for. So even with some of these disappointing selections,
[11:10] Speaker 2: I don't think we're going to see teams slow down
[11:12] Speaker 2: on wanting to get these top wide receivers anytime soon.
[11:15] Speaker 1: A while back, I actually did pull a bunch of
[11:17] Speaker 1: data for what like the highest paid receiving tandems ever
[11:21] Speaker 1: were going back about 20 years in terms of their
[11:23] Speaker 1: individual cap percentages. I was looking at like Reggie, ironically,
[11:27] Speaker 1: Marvin Harrison Sr. You know, you're looking at that Anquan Bolden,
[11:31] Speaker 1: Larry Fitzgerald combo, you know, all of these great receiving
[11:35] Speaker 1: tandems where two guys are getting a thousand yards. Basically,
[11:39] Speaker 1: none of them were paid a total percentage combined anywhere
[11:43] Speaker 1: near what Jamar and T Higgins are getting, or even
[11:47] Speaker 1: what like Tyreek and Waddle were getting in Miami. This
[11:49] Speaker 1: is a very new phenomenon across the NFL. I'm not
[11:54] Speaker 1: entirely sure if it works, right? Investing that much receiver.
[11:58] Speaker 1: We'll see what the Cowboys do with George Pickens. They
[12:01] Speaker 1: could be another team that does it pretty soon here.
[12:03] Speaker 1: So I'm not entirely sure if it works, but I
[12:05] Speaker 1: do know that teams feel like they have to do it,
[12:08] Speaker 1: which in itself is an indicator of where front offices
[12:11] Speaker 1: are going these days. They are prioritizing receiver. They're drafting them.
[12:15] Speaker 1: If they don't work, they're paying guys to come in
[12:18] Speaker 1: in other ways. Like they're throwing so much capital money-wise
[12:21] Speaker 1: and picks-wise into this position group. It's kind of hard
[12:24] Speaker 1: to ignore. Mike Evans is an unstoppable machine.
[12:28] Speaker 2: When you look at the wide receiver position, Total cap
[12:31] Speaker 2: percentages here.
[12:33] Speaker 1: In 2024, it was 8.9%. And wide receivers gained 44%
[12:34] Speaker 1: of the total yards for offenses. In 2025, it was 8.7%.
[12:36] Speaker 2: So right around the same, a little bit less.
[12:38] Speaker 1: And total yards was 43%.
[12:39] Speaker 2: But then in 2026... Now it's all the way up
[12:49] Speaker 2: to 9.4% in the percentage of total yards. It's more
[12:52] Speaker 2: of a passing league right now, and so we're looking
[12:54] Speaker 2: at 45%. So the percentages of total yards that the
[12:58] Speaker 2: wide receiver position helps you gain has been relatively the same,
[13:02] Speaker 2: and yet you're paying more for it, and I think
[13:05] Speaker 2: that it is going in that direction, which we bring
[13:07] Speaker 2: it all back to Brock Bowers, how he sort of
[13:09] Speaker 2: started this transition into this topic. You look at Bowers
[13:12] Speaker 2: in that 2024 draft class. He's going to have the
[13:14] Speaker 2: highest contract, especially for exactly where it's going. And especially
[13:18] Speaker 2: if he's able to stack on the fact that he goes, yeah,
[13:21] Speaker 2: I'm better at wide receiver than all of these other guys.
[13:24] Speaker 2: And also I happen to be listed as a tight end.
[13:27] Speaker 2: I think that Brock Bauer is going to have a
[13:29] Speaker 2: strong case given where the cap is going and how
[13:32] Speaker 2: he is utilized to have a pretty strong second contract.
[13:35] Speaker 1: There for him. I mean, this team paid $ 27 million
[13:38] Speaker 1: a year for a center. What do you think they're
[13:39] Speaker 1: going to give Brock Bowers? Cousins!
[13:41] Speaker 3: Fires!
[13:41] Speaker 1: Bowers! Wrestled in! Touchdown Raiders! All right, a little break
[13:48] Speaker 1: in the action for a fun segment here.
[13:50] Speaker 2: We're going to bring back Blind Resume. I'm going to
[13:53] Speaker 2: have some categories of a single team and then a
[13:56] Speaker 2: multiple choice question for Brett to answer. And he's going
[13:58] Speaker 2: to have one for me as well. Brett, your Blind
[14:01] Speaker 2: Resume team here.
[14:03] Speaker 1: They are 4th. In total, EPA.
[14:08] Speaker 2: Fifth in success rate. And first in rush yards over expected.
[14:15] Speaker 2: Is it the Baltimore Ravens, the Kansas City Chiefs, or
[14:20] Speaker 2: the Atlanta Falcons?
[14:22] Speaker 1: Oh, man. That's bait. That's 100% bait. Oh, Callie's trying
[14:28] Speaker 1: to screw with me. So the rushing yards over expected, right?
[14:32] Speaker 1: That's the thing that's really screwing with me here. Because
[14:36] Speaker 1: Kenneth Walker gets a lot of rushing yards over expected
[14:39] Speaker 1: because he's breaking tackles. And same with Bijan. Wow, man.
[14:49] Speaker 1: I'll go Kansas City. That seems more correct, which means
[14:53] Speaker 1: I'm probably wrong. Final answer? Final answer. It is, in fact,
[14:58] Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs. Finally. Oh, my God. You nailed it.
[15:01] Speaker 1: Good job. Good job, my friend. That was close. You're right.
[15:04] Speaker 1: The rushing yards over-expected.
[15:06] Speaker 2: It could have been either of those teams, but the
[15:08] Speaker 2: giveaway should have been the fact that Atlanta doesn't have
[15:12] Speaker 2: that consistent of an offense to be fourth in total EPA,
[15:16] Speaker 2: fifth in total success rate overall. The Bichon factor has
[15:20] Speaker 2: definitely been there for them, but I don't think that
[15:23] Speaker 2: they have that level of consistency to them, but.
[15:27] Speaker 1: Cooper Rush, I think, immediately disqualifies you from any high-ranking game.
[15:32] Speaker 1: That's kind of what I was thinking, yeah. All right,
[15:36] Speaker 1: your blind resume. This team is 6th in offensive success rate,
[15:43] Speaker 1: 4th in third-down conversions, 1st in scoring drive rate. It's
[15:50] Speaker 1: the most efficient scoring offense. scoring drive rate. What are
[15:56] Speaker 1: the three teams? Who do I have to guess? Oh yeah.
[15:59] Speaker 1: I probably should have given you that. Uh, 49ers, 49ers, Cowboys, Rams.
[16:07] Speaker 1: Before you gave me the teams, I was immediately thinking
[16:09] Speaker 1: about the 49ers.
[16:11] Speaker 3: Okay.
[16:11] Speaker 1: That's where my mind would have gone.
[16:13] Speaker 4: Yeah.
[16:13] Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah.
[16:14] Speaker 1: Um, Cowboys have.
[16:17] Speaker 2: Scored a lot. We talked about this stat like two
[16:21] Speaker 2: weeks ago for them. And then what was the last team?
[16:24] Speaker 2: It was the, It was the Cowboys and Niners.
[16:27] Speaker 1: Rams.
[16:29] Speaker 2: I don't think it's the Rams. They've missed too many
[16:32] Speaker 2: field goals. They've had too many turnovers.
[16:34] Speaker 1: I don't think it's the Rams. While you think about it,
[16:36] Speaker 1: by the way, for those of you that are at home,
[16:38] Speaker 1: go look at the play-by-play of the Monday night game, Bills-Rams,
[16:43] Speaker 1: because a whole lot didn't happen for a lot of
[16:46] Speaker 1: that game because there were so many penalties. It was
[16:48] Speaker 1: like 24 penalties. You get to the end of the
[16:49] Speaker 1: third quarter. And it's Bills touchdown, Rams touchdown, Bills touchdown,
[16:53] Speaker 1: Rams touchdown, Bills touchdown, Rams touchdown. They're just massively inflating
[16:57] Speaker 1: their scoring drive rates from about a 17-minute period of
[17:00] Speaker 1: game clock.
[17:01] Speaker 2: Are you not entertained? It's punishing anybody who wants to
[17:04] Speaker 2: leave the games early.
[17:05] Speaker 1: That's what that is.
[17:08] Speaker 2: I'm going to go with the Dallas Cowboys. I'm going
[17:10] Speaker 2: to guess the Dallas Cowboys.
[17:13] Speaker 1: We are two for two. Let's go, baby. Got her.
[17:19] Speaker 2: You love to see that kind of top-tier ball knowledge.
[17:24] Speaker 1: All right, next game on the docket, Cowboys-Packers. This one's
[17:27] Speaker 1: fascinating to me, because they just brought in Mike Pettin
[17:29] Speaker 1: this week, and they made it known that they brought
[17:32] Speaker 1: in Mike Pettin. This was not an under-the-radar hiring. This was,
[17:36] Speaker 1: we are bringing in Mike to help fix us. Not
[17:40] Speaker 1: that I think Christian Parker is getting replaced. I don't
[17:43] Speaker 1: think Mike Pettin is taking over or anything like that,
[17:46] Speaker 1: but they... clearly identified that they needed help. They needed
[17:50] Speaker 1: to bring in an expert that could help this defense
[17:53] Speaker 1: not be the worst in the league, to put it
[17:55] Speaker 1: diplomatically speaking. Now, Who is Mike Pettin? He is a
[17:59] Speaker 1: Rex Ryan disciple going back to the mid 2000s Ravens days.
[18:02] Speaker 1: If you're looking at that ultra aggressive defense with like
[18:05] Speaker 1: Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Haloti Nada, like all of these guys,
[18:09] Speaker 1: Mike Pettin was there with him. He was the defensive
[18:12] Speaker 1: coordinator under Rex in New York back in like the
[18:15] Speaker 1: prime Revis era. Very, very aggressive defensive play caller known
[18:20] Speaker 1: for putting a lot of bodies on the line of scrimmage.
[18:22] Speaker 1: He and I think Mike Zimmer were probably the two
[18:24] Speaker 1: guys that were most known for mug looks. Putting linebackers
[18:29] Speaker 1: up in the line of scrimmage, in the A-gap, in
[18:31] Speaker 1: the B-gap, and trying to make offenses really operate on
[18:35] Speaker 1: their back foot. That's what he's most known for. It
[18:45] Speaker 1: kind of feels like the Cowboys want to do that
[18:49] Speaker 1: more because the more Fangio-ish style, which I wouldn't say
[18:54] Speaker 1: is passive. I would say when you have the talent
[18:57] Speaker 1: to do that style, it's very Boa constrictory, whereas Petten
[19:01] Speaker 1: is more like a Cobra, like he's going to strike
[19:04] Speaker 1: you and kill you quickly.
[19:05] Speaker 2: I think anything compared to like what Petten, who was
[19:08] Speaker 2: on the Viking staff over the last couple of years,
[19:09] Speaker 2: does with Flores, I think anything compared to that would
[19:12] Speaker 2: be passive. So you're not, I don't think you're ruffling
[19:14] Speaker 2: any feathers saying that.
[19:15] Speaker 1: But it certainly feels like they recognize the more conservative
[19:19] Speaker 1: boa constrictor style is not going well. So they want
[19:23] Speaker 1: to switch things up.
[19:24] Speaker 2: Right. And Petten's background, and I think that everything that
[19:27] Speaker 2: he could potentially bring to the table here for the
[19:28] Speaker 2: Cowboys does make this matchup against the Packers very interesting.
[19:32] Speaker 2: So Pettin was actually defensive coordinator for the Green Bay
[19:35] Speaker 2: Packers from 2018 to 2020. Now, Jordan Love got drafted
[19:39] Speaker 2: in 2020, so Love was there in Pettin's final season.
[19:42] Speaker 2: But as you guys know, Love didn't start until 2023
[19:44] Speaker 2: because Aaron Rodgers was still there. So yeah, I mean,
[19:47] Speaker 2: like he was around him and everything, but I don't
[19:49] Speaker 2: really think the impact was that big of a takeaway
[19:52] Speaker 2: going all the way back to when they were sort
[19:54] Speaker 2: of in the same building instead what I think is
[19:56] Speaker 2: a little bit more valuable here is that Pettin was
[19:59] Speaker 2: an assistant head coach slash became also the outside linebackers
[20:04] Speaker 2: coach for the Minnesota Vikings it was from 2022 to
[20:07] Speaker 2: 2025 but specifically this matters if we take it from
[20:10] Speaker 2: 2023 to 2025 because those are the years when Jordan
[20:13] Speaker 2: Love became the starter for the Green Bay Packers so
[20:15] Speaker 2: we do have a handful of games that yes it's
[20:19] Speaker 2: Flores's defense but Mike Pettin is still there I think
[20:21] Speaker 2: the influence is the same he was a position coach
[20:23] Speaker 2: he was probably consulted on a lot of this stuff
[20:25] Speaker 2: and I think that his ultra-aggressive style, like you mentioned,
[20:29] Speaker 2: is very in line with what Flores has wanted to
[20:31] Speaker 2: do and has done with the Minnesota Vikings.
[20:34] Speaker 1: Love versus Flores.
[20:35] Speaker 2: Since 2023, 7.2 yards per attempt, 60.6 completion percentage, negative
[20:40] Speaker 2: 3.9 completion percentage over expected, and a negative EPA per dropback.
[20:43] Speaker 2: Love versus everyone else since 2023, 7.6 yards per attempt,
[20:49] Speaker 2: 64.6 completion percentage, a positive completion percentage over expected, and
[20:53] Speaker 2: a positive EPA per dropback. So, Brian Flores has been
[20:56] Speaker 2: one of the best defense coordinators of the league over
[20:57] Speaker 2: the last couple of years. That is true against Jordan Love. Specifically, though, Vikings,
[21:02] Speaker 2: in double-mugged looks from 2023 to 2025, that's sample size.
[21:05] Speaker 2: They had double-mugged looks, so linebackers walked up to the
[21:08] Speaker 2: line of scrimmage on 12.7% of their plays, almost double
[21:11] Speaker 2: more than any other team. And then specifically on third
[21:15] Speaker 2: down in that time frame, 25.4% of their plays have
[21:20] Speaker 2: had a double-mugged look on third down. That is, once again,
[21:22] Speaker 2: first innings.
[21:23] Speaker 1: In the NFL.
[21:24] Speaker 2: They did that more against the Packers and Jordan Love
[21:26] Speaker 2: than all the others, 28.8% versus the Packers versus 24.9%
[21:31] Speaker 2: against all other teams. Now, to me, the transition here
[21:35] Speaker 2: is you look at what Jordan Love did really well
[21:37] Speaker 2: last week. He was throwing the ball deep. Okay, well,
[21:39] Speaker 2: how does this all factor into limiting what Jordan Love
[21:41] Speaker 2: can do as a deep ball passer? Against the Vikings,
[21:45] Speaker 2: when it comes to attacking deep, Love versus Flores, 13.6%
[21:49] Speaker 2: deep rate percentage, but a 33.3% success rate.
[21:52] Speaker 1: Love vs.
[21:52] Speaker 2: Everyone Else, 13.1% deep rate, so basically the same. He's
[21:56] Speaker 2: just trying to do this every game. but a 38.6%
[21:59] Speaker 2: success rate. So a little bit less of a completion
[22:01] Speaker 2: percentage and success rate overall for Love versus Flores attacking
[22:05] Speaker 2: deep versus all the other coordinators. Love was great on
[22:08] Speaker 2: the blitz last week, nine for 12, 176 yards and
[22:11] Speaker 2: a touchdown. But again, when you look at the Vikings specifically,
[22:15] Speaker 2: when Mike Pettin was there, Love had a game where
[22:18] Speaker 2: he threw three interceptions in 2024 against the Viking. Two
[22:21] Speaker 2: of those interceptions were, guess what? Double mugged looks and
[22:24] Speaker 2: another throw that was incomplete that could have been intercepted
[22:27] Speaker 2: came from a double mug pressure as well. Jordan Love
[22:30] Speaker 2: has only thrown three interceptions in a single game twice
[22:32] Speaker 2: in his career. One of them, you guessed it, versus
[22:35] Speaker 2: the Vikings when Mike Pettin was there. That's a lot
[22:38] Speaker 2: of information, a lot of things to throw at you
[22:39] Speaker 2: guys to basically just say the Cowboys want to be
[22:43] Speaker 2: more aggressive.
[22:44] Speaker 1: I think if anything, because you're not going to change
[22:46] Speaker 1: the system overnight, I think if anything, Pettin was brought
[22:48] Speaker 1: in this week to be an expert on on how
[22:51] Speaker 1: to attack Matt LaFleur's protections. Because he knows this protection
[22:55] Speaker 1: scheme very well. He knows everything the Packers like to do.
[22:58] Speaker 1: He's very well attuned to how they like to keep
[23:00] Speaker 1: Jordan Love clean. And they're doing it with a, on paper,
[23:04] Speaker 1: much worse offensive line this year than they have in
[23:07] Speaker 1: years past. So if anybody can kind of be that
[23:09] Speaker 1: last second ringer that comes in and does an install
[23:12] Speaker 1: of like, hey, here's what Jordan Love likes on certain
[23:16] Speaker 1: insert distance and in certain areas of the field. Here's
[23:19] Speaker 1: how we can attack it, right? Here's who their weak
[23:21] Speaker 1: link is. What's the best way to isolate that weak link?
[23:23] Speaker 1: Whether it's a running back, a tight end, a backup guard, whatever.
[23:27] Speaker 1: Petten is very good at just finding the thing that
[23:30] Speaker 1: you do the worst and pressing that button over and
[23:34] Speaker 1: over again. I feel like that's what he's going to
[23:36] Speaker 1: do for Dallas. All right, next game on the docket, Texans-Jags.
[23:48] Speaker 1: Duval County's been very upset with us. We haven't talked
[23:50] Speaker 1: about the Jags nearly enough this season. It's kind of
[23:55] Speaker 1: early for the whole must-win game thing, but this certainly
[23:59] Speaker 1: feels like a must-win game.
[24:01] Speaker 2: It does for the Texans specifically because you beat the
[24:04] Speaker 2: Titans last week. You go to 1-4, but you are
[24:09] Speaker 2: in a situation where if you look at the next-gen stats,
[24:13] Speaker 2: playoff probability that we have, if they win this game
[24:17] Speaker 2: against Jacksonville, they have a 34% chance to make the playoffs.
[24:20] Speaker 2: Right now it's at 23%. So if you beat the Jags,
[24:23] Speaker 2: that jumps up 11%. Now, obviously this could change a
[24:25] Speaker 2: little bit depending on what happens around the league, but
[24:27] Speaker 2: that's what we have right now. If they lose this game,
[24:29] Speaker 2: it goes all the way down to 14%. And this
[24:32] Speaker 2: game matters a lot, not just in the win-loss column,
[24:34] Speaker 2: but also the fact that if the Texans lose this game,
[24:37] Speaker 2: they drop to 1-5. And Jacksonville is then at the
[24:40] Speaker 2: top of the division at 5-1. If you're the Texans,
[24:42] Speaker 2: you can kiss winning this division goodbye. Like you are
[24:44] Speaker 2: just praying, PRAYING, for a wild card at that point.
[24:48] Speaker 2: Now their next four games, they do have the Giants,
[24:51] Speaker 2: the Chargers, the Browns, and the Colts. I think all
[24:53] Speaker 2: those games are winnable for them. But given that they
[24:57] Speaker 2: have dug themselves such a hole, you've got to win
[25:00] Speaker 2: some games that maybe on paper at the time you
[25:03] Speaker 2: weren't expected to win. And I think that it's tough
[25:05] Speaker 2: to look at what I think is a top three
[25:07] Speaker 2: team in the NFL. And I would argue the number
[25:10] Speaker 2: one team in the NFL right now and say, there
[25:12] Speaker 2: it is. We'd like to get that win on the schedule.
[25:14] Speaker 2: But you're kind of, in this situation for a reason
[25:17] Speaker 2: so look we've talked plenty about the Texans right we've
[25:19] Speaker 2: talked about how their offensive line has still been up
[25:22] Speaker 2: and down their run game especially in the short yardage
[25:24] Speaker 2: has not been what it's needed to be the pass
[25:26] Speaker 2: rush especially with Will Anderson has been fantastic for them
[25:29] Speaker 2: and that's interesting going up against the Jags who are
[25:31] Speaker 2: now starting Walker Little but you know Walker Little has
[25:33] Speaker 2: still started 39 games in his career so it's not
[25:36] Speaker 2: like he's experienced Yeah, he's never started before. Isn't Anton Harrison? No,
[25:40] Speaker 2: but I think that it's not like ultimate panic button.
[25:42] Speaker 2: The defense hasn't been what you've wanted it to be,
[25:44] Speaker 2: but you figured that's going to bounce back. But bounce
[25:46] Speaker 2: back how much? Can you rattle a Jags team that
[25:49] Speaker 2: has been, for the most part, fantastic this season in
[25:52] Speaker 2: so many different areas of the game? They've been very balanced.
[25:55] Speaker 2: They play extremely complementary football for offense, defense, run game,
[25:58] Speaker 2: pass game, special teams.
[25:59] Speaker 1: Involved as well.
[26:00] Speaker 2: It's why I would argue they're the best team in
[26:02] Speaker 2: the NFL.
[26:02] Speaker 1: And it's tough to.
[26:05] Speaker 2: Have the Texans staring down the barrel of this and
[26:07] Speaker 2: saying that this is a must-win game, but unfortunately, Brett,
[26:10] Speaker 2: I do think this is a must-win game for them.
[26:12] Speaker 4: Here's pressure, and here's Will Anderson Jr.
[26:14] Speaker 1: With the sack! On the Jags side of things, you know,
[26:18] Speaker 1: maybe while we haven't talked about the Jags as much
[26:19] Speaker 1: as Jags fans want us to, there are several things
[26:23] Speaker 1: that we praise them for so far this season. Game
[26:25] Speaker 1: management hasn't necessarily been one of them. Liam Cohen, back-to-back weeks,
[26:29] Speaker 1: questionable at best game management. and specifically play calling in
[26:33] Speaker 1: key downs and distances. But everything else about this team
[26:36] Speaker 1: we have really liked. Trevor specifically has been on a
[26:39] Speaker 1: tear so far this year. He's been exceptional over the
[26:42] Speaker 1: middle of the field. He and Stroud both are in
[26:45] Speaker 1: the top five quarterbacks as far as middle of the
[26:47] Speaker 1: field target rate, and their offenses have both been awesome
[26:50] Speaker 1: because of that. If you're looking at Basial Tootin, he's flashed.
[26:53] Speaker 1: If you're looking at the pass rush, they've been consistently
[26:56] Speaker 1: good this year. Like there's so many things about this
[26:59] Speaker 1: Jags team individually that we have liked. And yet somehow
[27:03] Speaker 1: we haven't talked about Travis Hunter basically at all this season.
[27:07] Speaker 1: Is the trade still worth it if he doesn't play
[27:09] Speaker 1: receiver at all? Like if this is what he is,
[27:12] Speaker 1: if they get a top three corner in the league,
[27:15] Speaker 1: Is that still worth the trade? Rich, a blockbuster trade.
[27:19] Speaker 3: The Jacksonville Jaguars wanted to be bold, and they are
[27:23] Speaker 3: in fact bold. They have agreed to terms with the
[27:26] Speaker 3: Browns to trade from number five to number two with
[27:30] Speaker 3: the Browns receiving a second rounder, number 36 overall, 126
[27:35] Speaker 3: overall this year, and next year's first round pick.
[27:38] Speaker 2: If you're looking at it for just pick value, it's
[27:40] Speaker 2: hard to say that that would be however I think
[27:43] Speaker 2: that when you're evaluating trades you have to have the
[27:46] Speaker 2: context of who you're trading for and just everything that
[27:49] Speaker 2: surrounds that team and for Travis Hunter specifically I loved
[27:52] Speaker 2: the move on draft day I love that they went
[27:55] Speaker 2: they got aggressive I love that they went and got
[27:56] Speaker 2: the unicorn player in this class The reason why I
[27:59] Speaker 2: loved it is not because I just thought that he
[28:01] Speaker 2: could be a good corner, which by the way, I
[28:03] Speaker 2: thought that he should be primarily a corner and then
[28:05] Speaker 2: Moonlight as a wide receiver, not the other way around.
[28:07] Speaker 2: So I love the way that they're deploying him so far.
[28:09] Speaker 2: If he does not play wide receiver at all, it's
[28:12] Speaker 2: hard to say that they would take it back because
[28:15] Speaker 2: of the team building that they have done around everything since,
[28:19] Speaker 2: because the Jags have obviously become one of the best
[28:20] Speaker 2: teams in the NFL. And so you can kind of
[28:22] Speaker 2: look at it and say like, all right, did we
[28:24] Speaker 2: pay Maybe a little bit more than you would think
[28:25] Speaker 2: for a shutdown corner. Sure, but it made our team better.
[28:28] Speaker 2: And I think that's part of the conversation as well.
[28:31] Speaker 2: But I'm going to cheat a little bit here in
[28:33] Speaker 2: my answer because they are playing him a little bit
[28:36] Speaker 2: at wide receiver. And not only does he look confident
[28:39] Speaker 2: at corner, he looks confident at wide receiver in those
[28:41] Speaker 2: opportunities where they're trying to give him the ball quick
[28:44] Speaker 2: and get those yards after catch. So last year when
[28:47] Speaker 2: I saw the usage from him and obviously the injury
[28:49] Speaker 2: didn't help, I was like, man, Did they pay too
[28:53] Speaker 2: much for how they wanted to use him? This year,
[28:56] Speaker 2: I'm having to hold myself back from how excited I
[28:59] Speaker 2: am about the future of Travis Hunter because the confidence
[29:02] Speaker 2: level that he is playing with at corner right now
[29:04] Speaker 2: is a leap from what it was the previous season.
[29:07] Speaker 2: I know he put on some good weight, put on
[29:08] Speaker 2: some good muscle. He looks even more explosive despite being
[29:11] Speaker 2: at a higher weight. They're getting him involved in the
[29:13] Speaker 2: passing game despite the fact that they don't have to
[29:16] Speaker 2: because they have tight ends they like. They have Parker Washington.
[29:19] Speaker 2: They have Jacoby Myers. And so I'll say that when
[29:23] Speaker 2: you look at things just in a vacuum, that's a
[29:27] Speaker 2: lot of draft capital value to give up for even
[29:31] Speaker 2: just one of the best corners. It's a lot to
[29:33] Speaker 2: give up for just a corner. But when you bring
[29:35] Speaker 2: in full context of who it was and that it
[29:37] Speaker 2: was Travis Hunter and that he can all have that
[29:40] Speaker 2: potential to play on the other side of the ball
[29:42] Speaker 2: certainly for where we are right now and how he
[29:44] Speaker 2: looks yeah I tell you that the trade was worth
[29:47] Speaker 2: it the arrow is only looking very very high up
[29:50] Speaker 2: for Hunter and how they're using him Travis Hunter, his
[29:53] Speaker 2: first career interception, and boy, did he pick a perfect
[29:58] Speaker 2: moment for it.
[29:59] Speaker 1: One last stat here for you. So the Jacksonville Jaguars
[30:02] Speaker 1: have not allowed a single opposing player to run for
[30:06] Speaker 1: 40-plus yards in a game against them so far this year.
[30:09] Speaker 1: You might think that's a death sentence for the Texans,
[30:11] Speaker 1: but joke's on you. The leading Texans rusher averages 30
[30:15] Speaker 1: yards a game. You can't kill us, Trevor. We're already dead.
[30:20] Speaker 1: On the ground. Speaking of bad Texans run games, by
[30:28] Speaker 1: the way, last season, to start the 2025 season, the
[30:32] Speaker 1: Rams won, essentially, because of a Nate Landman punch-out on
[30:36] Speaker 1: Daria Ogunbowale. And Landman has kind of become known for this.
[30:41] Speaker 1: He is a master of the peanut punch. But he's
[30:45] Speaker 1: not the only one. There's a lot of players around
[30:46] Speaker 1: the league that have gotten really, really good at forcing fumbles.
[30:51] Speaker 1: To the point where it is a noticeable uptick in
[30:54] Speaker 1: terms of how many fumbles there are league-wide. I don't
[30:57] Speaker 1: want to say it's that ball security is at its worst.
[31:00] Speaker 1: I just think defenders have gotten a lot better at
[31:04] Speaker 1: doing these hyper-targeted punches.
[31:06] Speaker 2: 52 fumbles. Most since week 1 of 2022 when there
[31:10] Speaker 2: was 56. And 26 fumbles lost the most since week
[31:11] Speaker 2: 12 of 2020 when there was 28.
[31:13] Speaker 1: That is.
[31:20] Speaker 2: Crazy and you're right i think that you know every
[31:23] Speaker 2: single time that we see it on a broadcast you
[31:25] Speaker 2: know everybody's always.
[31:25] Speaker 3: Like the peanut punch.
[31:28] Speaker 2: Man it really does feel that way it's not like
[31:31] Speaker 2: this cliche it's it's taught now like this is clearly
[31:35] Speaker 2: a technique thing and we've seen i mean the mark
[31:39] Speaker 2: andrews fumble is a great example where he's coming in
[31:41] Speaker 2: to make the tackle could tell he's not abandoning his
[31:45] Speaker 2: form now sometimes the guys come in and they do
[31:48] Speaker 2: totally abandon their form and they're just trying to punch
[31:50] Speaker 2: the ball out but like that was an example of
[31:52] Speaker 2: of what you're talking about where I think that it's
[31:55] Speaker 2: being taught more as an emphasis now of hey when
[31:59] Speaker 2: you come in to wrap up for a tackle you
[32:02] Speaker 2: know make sure that you are get into the hip
[32:06] Speaker 2: in the center of gravity of the player where you
[32:07] Speaker 2: could bring them down. But as you are, and as
[32:09] Speaker 2: you are wrapping, get the fist around. Try to knock
[32:14] Speaker 2: the ball out. And so it's like, yes, we want
[32:16] Speaker 2: you to be fundamentally sound. We want you to make
[32:18] Speaker 2: the tackle. But they're clearly teaching this in how they
[32:22] Speaker 2: are wrapping up ball carriers as well. I think you're
[32:24] Speaker 2: also seeing a ton of, hey, my teammates already kind
[32:28] Speaker 2: of starting to bring this player down. I'm just going
[32:31] Speaker 2: to go for the ball here. So I just, it's
[32:34] Speaker 2: a huge emphasis. And I think the reason why is
[32:36] Speaker 2: because in an age where offenses, it feels like can
[32:40] Speaker 2: get explosives all over the place. When you get those
[32:43] Speaker 2: extra possessions, they can mean everything. And that's why coaches
[32:47] Speaker 2: preach against forcing turnovers and limiting turnovers, depending on which
[32:51] Speaker 2: side of the ball that you're on.
[32:52] Speaker 1: But it very.
[32:53] Speaker 2: Clearly teams are more into this than they've ever been,
[32:56] Speaker 2: because this is a league trend that is only going
[32:58] Speaker 2: up with defenses, forcing these fumbles.
[33:00] Speaker 3: Yeah.
[33:00] Speaker 1: I mean, Fred Warner has three so far this year.
[33:03] Speaker 1: He's only, played in five games, right? Three forced fumbles
[33:06] Speaker 1: in five games is nuts. And there was actually a
[33:09] Speaker 1: moment in the Australia game where I think he was
[33:13] Speaker 1: looking at Dre Greenlaw and talking to him. And he said, hey,
[33:16] Speaker 1: hold him up. I can get one for us here. Like,
[33:19] Speaker 1: don't immediately bring him down. Hold him up. And he did.
[33:22] Speaker 1: And then Fred came in and punched out. Like, he
[33:24] Speaker 1: called his own shot. And so defenders are really approaching
[33:28] Speaker 1: forced fumbles as a team effort, right? Like, keep him up.
[33:33] Speaker 1: so that we have an opportunity to come in here
[33:35] Speaker 1: and punch it out. And it has such a profound
[33:38] Speaker 1: impact on the opposing defense. If you're looking at the
[33:42] Speaker 1: Chargers defense as an example, their EPA per play isn't horrible.
[33:47] Speaker 1: Their down-to-down efficiency isn't horrible, but they've allowed, I guess,
[33:52] Speaker 1: technically a whole lot of points this year because they
[33:54] Speaker 1: have 19 drives. that have started in their own territory
[33:59] Speaker 1: because of the Chargers offense, turning it over a lot
[34:02] Speaker 1: of those being fumbles.
[34:04] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[34:04] Speaker 3: Right.
[34:04] Speaker 1: Like they, they lost a couple of weeks ago because
[34:06] Speaker 1: of that. Cause of Amari and Hampton had it punched
[34:08] Speaker 1: out late. So it, it really helps your offense be better.
[34:13] Speaker 1: If you can give them that kind of field position
[34:15] Speaker 1: by just punching it out. And because it's not a
[34:18] Speaker 1: round ball, it can bounce all over the place and
[34:21] Speaker 1: you guys have a shot to recover it. It, If
[34:23] Speaker 1: you can do that once or twice in a game,
[34:25] Speaker 1: you recover one of them, you set yourself up for
[34:28] Speaker 1: an easy score, that flips the entire game. It really does.
[34:33] Speaker 1: It makes any game winnable by pretty much any team
[34:36] Speaker 1: if you can win that turnover battle. It's not a
[34:38] Speaker 1: new thing, but it certainly feels like teams are doing
[34:41] Speaker 1: it a lot more now.
[34:42] Speaker 4: Back to the ground, back to Cook. And this time,
[34:45] Speaker 4: ball comes out! His second fumble of the night! Landman
[34:49] Speaker 4: forced it, and it's another fumble for James Cook.
[34:53] Speaker 1: All right, last segment of the show. We got to
[34:55] Speaker 1: get the people involved, Brett.
[34:56] Speaker 2: Going to the fan Q & A section here. First
[35:00] Speaker 2: question from Ward MVP Season. What's going on with the
[35:05] Speaker 2: Vikings offense? Is it on Kyler?
[35:07] Speaker 1: Is it KOC?
[35:09] Speaker 2: So, yeah, Vikings sitting here at 5-0. I don't want
[35:12] Speaker 2: to complain about being 5-0, but hey, I think that
[35:14] Speaker 2: people do look at the offense and go, man, this feels...
[35:17] Speaker 2: unstable it just doesn't feel as easy and if brian
[35:20] Speaker 2: flores wasn't on you know level 15 out of 10
[35:23] Speaker 2: maybe the record does look different for the vikings so
[35:25] Speaker 2: your thoughts on the vikings offense right now.
[35:28] Speaker 1: I mean the easy answer is it's just not an
[35:31] Speaker 1: explosive offense right they have an 11.1 explosive play rate
[35:35] Speaker 1: on offense that's passing and running that's bottom 10 in
[35:39] Speaker 1: the nfl just rushing in terms of explosive designed run
[35:43] Speaker 1: rate only 7.1 that's ninth lowest in the nfl even
[35:48] Speaker 1: though their average yards before contact per attempt is actually
[35:51] Speaker 1: pretty good, 10th most at 1.5. So the offensive line
[35:55] Speaker 1: has done a good job in terms of creating room
[35:57] Speaker 1: for the running backs. The running backs just aren't really
[35:58] Speaker 1: doing anything with that room. And then if you're looking
[36:01] Speaker 1: at Kyler specifically, fairly average deep pass rate at 9.9%,
[36:08] Speaker 1: but a lot of explosives in today's NFL are created
[36:11] Speaker 1: over the middle of the field. I know we're going
[36:13] Speaker 1: to keep talking about it and beating that dead horse,
[36:14] Speaker 1: but it's true. And if you're looking at intermediate in breakers,
[36:19] Speaker 1: he only targets them 10% of the time. That's the
[36:21] Speaker 1: lowest rate in the entire league. And that's just where
[36:24] Speaker 1: all of these really explosive offenses get these chunks. You
[36:28] Speaker 1: throw an in breaker and then you get a catch
[36:30] Speaker 1: and run, or you're just making life hell for these
[36:33] Speaker 1: hook droppers and you're getting 15, 20 yards at a time.
[36:37] Speaker 1: They just don't do that. So if you don't have
[36:38] Speaker 1: an explosive run game outside of, you know, the odd
[36:41] Speaker 1: Kyler scramble here and there, and you don't have an
[36:43] Speaker 1: explosive passing game, because the only real time you're going
[36:47] Speaker 1: down the field, it's like a one-on-one down the boundary,
[36:50] Speaker 1: which is low percentage throw to begin with, then you
[36:53] Speaker 1: kind of have to play offense the hard way and
[36:55] Speaker 1: put together 10, 11 play drives. they're just not really
[36:59] Speaker 1: good enough to do that without stalling out. It's a
[37:02] Speaker 1: big reason why Will Riker, you know, kind of tongue
[37:05] Speaker 1: in cheek, but really was getting like Vikings MVP chance
[37:09] Speaker 1: because they keep getting to the red zone or just
[37:11] Speaker 1: outside the red zone and stalling out. And then he
[37:14] Speaker 1: has to come in and bang a field goal through.
[37:16] Speaker 1: I think he got like five in one game the
[37:18] Speaker 1: other week. So it's just not a sustainable offense, you know,
[37:22] Speaker 1: where you don't have explosives to get those chunks for you.
[37:27] Speaker 1: It's so much harder to put five good plays on
[37:30] Speaker 1: tape in a row compared to just one to get
[37:32] Speaker 1: the same amount of yardage. I would agree with you.
[37:35] Speaker 2: I think that the lack of explosiveness in the run
[37:37] Speaker 2: game is really affecting what they can do overall. Because
[37:41] Speaker 2: as much as, yes, you don't have to be a
[37:44] Speaker 2: successful run team to be effective at play action or
[37:47] Speaker 2: motion and things like that. You could still do those
[37:49] Speaker 2: things even if you don't have a great run game.
[37:52] Speaker 2: it certainly helps when you do, and you just get
[37:55] Speaker 2: more bite from linebackers, you get more attention from safeties,
[37:59] Speaker 2: the middle of the field opens up more, whether it's
[38:01] Speaker 2: a bootleg or just a straight drop play action, whatever
[38:04] Speaker 2: it is, that middle of the field opens up a
[38:06] Speaker 2: lot more, and those aim-breaking routes open up, I think,
[38:09] Speaker 2: a lot more when you do have a successful run game.
[38:11] Speaker 2: And of course, we've said this before, Kyler's not the
[38:14] Speaker 2: tallest quarterback in the league, and so you kind of
[38:16] Speaker 2: have to manipulate the offensive line a little bit at
[38:18] Speaker 2: times in order for him to to want to attack
[38:21] Speaker 2: over the middle of the field with regularity. And so
[38:23] Speaker 2: I think the domino effect really just starts with they
[38:27] Speaker 2: don't have that explosiveness in the run game. And if
[38:29] Speaker 2: they had that a little bit more, I think that
[38:31] Speaker 2: things would look a little bit easier for them. And
[38:34] Speaker 2: to me, that's what's quote unquote wrong with the Vikings offense.
[38:37] Speaker 2: I don't know how much more explosive they're going to
[38:39] Speaker 2: get in the ground game. But again, you know, if
[38:42] Speaker 2: the defense is playing the way that they are, I
[38:44] Speaker 2: think even the offense in its current form, especially from
[38:47] Speaker 2: what we saw last week, which was a really nice
[38:48] Speaker 2: game from Kyler, is going to be enough for this
[38:50] Speaker 2: team to make the postseason and feel pretty good about
[38:53] Speaker 2: themselves when they get there. Second question that we have
[38:55] Speaker 2: here for the Fan Q & A, it's from NFLDuos
[38:58] Speaker 2: on Twitter. It said, is a healthy Panthers offense top
[39:01] Speaker 2: five in the NFL? So we could just look at
[39:04] Speaker 2: sort of what they are as an offense while playing
[39:08] Speaker 2: through some of these injuries. EPA per play, they have
[39:11] Speaker 2: the eighth most injuries. EPA per play in the NFL,
[39:13] Speaker 2: EPA per dropbacks, the fifth most, so there we go,
[39:15] Speaker 2: cracking the top five. Designed run EPA, 19th most, so
[39:22] Speaker 2: have struggled on the ground, but scoring drive percentage, they
[39:25] Speaker 2: have the fifth highest in the NFL. So in terms
[39:28] Speaker 2: of the overall question, is a healthy Panthers offense top
[39:31] Speaker 2: five in the NFL? Well, they're the fifth highest in
[39:34] Speaker 2: scoring percentage, even with what they have been through. So
[39:38] Speaker 2: does that make the answer yes? Brett, what do you
[39:40] Speaker 2: think about this?
[39:41] Speaker 1: I mean, look no further than explosive play rate. Just
[39:44] Speaker 1: talk about it with Minnesota. They don't get a lot
[39:46] Speaker 1: of explosives. Carolina has the fourth highest explosive play rate
[39:49] Speaker 1: in the NFL, 15.7%. It's a huge, huge jump. And
[39:54] Speaker 1: they get it both on the ground and through the air.
[39:56] Speaker 1: It's a balanced offense, even though they're not fully healthy.
[40:00] Speaker 1: I think McMillan playing more in the slot has been
[40:03] Speaker 1: awesome for them because it lets him find space so
[40:07] Speaker 1: much easier when he has these two-way goes from the slot.
[40:10] Speaker 1: And that really, to me, was his superpower when he
[40:12] Speaker 1: was coming out of college, was just being a really
[40:15] Speaker 1: smart receiver, very silky smooth, find space, get yards after catch.
[40:19] Speaker 1: I know he was profiled as this Mike Evans 2.0.
[40:23] Speaker 1: And while, yeah, he's big, to me, he was really
[40:26] Speaker 1: more like an Eric Decker type than he was. And
[40:28] Speaker 1: I mean that as a compliment, by the way. Prime
[40:30] Speaker 1: Eric Decker was sick. But that, to me, was his
[40:32] Speaker 1: best usage of as a big slot. Well, they started
[40:35] Speaker 1: doing that this year. got great returns out of it
[40:38] Speaker 1: a couple weeks ago before their bye week. Ideally, they're
[40:41] Speaker 1: healthier now coming off that bye going into week six.
[40:45] Speaker 1: This is as potent an offense I can remember in
[40:48] Speaker 1: Carolina since, God, do I want to invoke 2015 here?
[40:53] Speaker 1: Is this the best Panthers offense since then? I think
[40:55] Speaker 1: it might be. Yeah, it kind of feels like it.
[40:57] Speaker 2: So let's put each other on the spot then, okay?
[41:00] Speaker 2: I'm going to name a team, and you tell me
[41:02] Speaker 2: if you would have that offense.
[41:05] Speaker 1: above.
[41:06] Speaker 2: Carolina, if you would pick that offense over the Carolina Panthers.
[41:08] Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills.
[41:09] Speaker 2: They have the most points per game so far this year, 32.8.
[41:12] Speaker 2: I'll say yes. The fumbles concern me, but I'll say yes.
[41:18] Speaker 1: What about the Niners? Even in their banged up state,
[41:21] Speaker 1: I would say yes, but boy, it's close. It's really close.
[41:24] Speaker 1: I agree. I agree. Lions. Yeah, because somehow they're just
[41:28] Speaker 1: good at everything, even with their own personnel issues. Even
[41:33] Speaker 1: by recent history lion standards, they're amazing, so sure, yeah.
[41:38] Speaker 1: I agree, I agree. So we're at three now.
[41:41] Speaker 2: This is now where I certainly think that Carolina's in
[41:43] Speaker 2: the conversation. Would you take Carolina or would you take
[41:46] Speaker 2: Kansas City? Ooh.
[41:48] Speaker 1: That's close. I think I would take, it's very close.
[41:51] Speaker 1: I think I would take Carolina. I feel like they're
[41:52] Speaker 1: a little bit more versatile. It does feel like Kansas
[41:56] Speaker 1: City is kind of the Kenneth Walker show. Also, they're
[42:00] Speaker 1: banged up and are still that good. Give me Carolina,
[42:03] Speaker 1: but that is close.
[42:04] Speaker 2: I think that that one's close, but I think you
[42:06] Speaker 2: could put Carolina in there above the Chiefs.
[42:08] Speaker 1: What about the Cowboys? Shake the Cowboys or the Panthers?
[42:12] Speaker 2: I think the Cowboys at their best, I would take
[42:14] Speaker 2: over the Panthers, but the problem is they're five weeks
[42:16] Speaker 2: into the season. How many times have they played their best?
[42:20] Speaker 1: Not enough. Carolina's been more consistent. Carolina's been more consistent. Yeah,
[42:25] Speaker 1: give me that. Give me the higher baseline compared to
[42:27] Speaker 1: the higher ceiling. Okay, all right.
[42:29] Speaker 2: And then, I'll just go Bengals. Would you go Bengals
[42:33] Speaker 2: over the Panthers, or would you take the Panthers.
[42:34] Speaker 1: Over the Bengals? I would go Panthers over Bengals. The
[42:38] Speaker 1: one that I would be interested in your answer on
[42:41] Speaker 1: is Chicago.
[42:43] Speaker 2: Yeah. When they're healthy. Yeah, there were three other teams
[42:46] Speaker 2: I was going to bring up. The Seahawks, the Ravens,
[42:48] Speaker 2: and then the Bears. Okay. When the Bears are healthy,
[42:52] Speaker 2: I'd take the Bears over the Panthers. I think that
[42:57] Speaker 2: they are absolutely in that top five category. I would
[43:00] Speaker 2: say the Bills, the Lions, the 49ers, and the Bears.
[43:06] Speaker 2: I would all take over the Panthers. But then I
[43:09] Speaker 2: would have Carolina in that next tier, and you could
[43:12] Speaker 2: have an argument for them being at five or just
[43:14] Speaker 2: below five with the Chiefs, the Ravens, the Cowboys, and
[43:17] Speaker 2: the Seahawks. I think those are the teams that are
[43:20] Speaker 2: in that next year.
[43:22] Speaker 1: And what's interesting is Declan Doyle is so good at
[43:24] Speaker 1: his job that whether Lamar is out there or not,
[43:26] Speaker 1: the Ravens have the highest success rate out of any offense.
[43:31] Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's hard to deny that too. But all
[43:33] Speaker 2: of that, I think, whether you have the Panthers right
[43:36] Speaker 2: there at five or within the top five, I think
[43:38] Speaker 2: the question is, And the conversation is a good one
[43:41] Speaker 2: to have to respect what Carolina is putting out there.
[43:44] Speaker 2: This isn't just like kind of a fun story. This
[43:46] Speaker 2: has been an awesome offense to watch and one of
[43:49] Speaker 2: the best in the NFL.
[43:55] Speaker 1: Game picks for week six. Let's go, baby.
[43:58] Speaker 2: If you're new around here, what we do is we
[43:59] Speaker 2: take 10 games we have in the upcoming NFL slate.
[44:02] Speaker 2: And not only do we pick the winner, but we
[44:04] Speaker 2: also rank them in terms of confidence. So If you
[44:08] Speaker 2: think that this team is absolutely going to win this game,
[44:11] Speaker 2: you'll put it at the 10 confidence spot. And if
[44:12] Speaker 2: you're right, you get 10 points. Then 9, you get
[44:15] Speaker 2: 9 points. 8, you get 8 points.
[44:16] Speaker 1: So on and so forth. It's a fun game.
[44:19] Speaker 2: We've been keeping track all season long, along with you
[44:21] Speaker 2: guys out there, which we'll get to some of the
[44:23] Speaker 2: shout-outs for how you guys did last week. Brett, really quickly,
[44:26] Speaker 2: I don't want to reveal our points yet because we'll
[44:28] Speaker 2: do that in a second before we tee up these games, but.
[44:30] Speaker 1: We implemented a.
[44:32] Speaker 2: You lose 10 points if your 10 confidence game does
[44:37] Speaker 2: not hit. And we implemented that, I will add, because
[44:42] Speaker 2: you missed it two weeks in a row before this.
[44:45] Speaker 2: And the people were like, Brett's got to pay. We
[44:48] Speaker 2: need punishment. So we're like, OK, OK, minus 10 if
[44:51] Speaker 2: you miss your top 10 confidence game.
[44:54] Speaker 1: And guess what happened?
[44:56] Speaker 2: I missed mine and you didn't miss yours. So I
[44:59] Speaker 2: have no idea what my final score is, but I
[45:01] Speaker 2: know that it's 10 points less than I would have.
[45:03] Speaker 1: If we were doing this a week prior. I mean,
[45:05] Speaker 1: I don't feel great about it because the Jacksonville technically
[45:10] Speaker 1: win was my 10 spot game, which like, was it really?
[45:16] Speaker 1: So close. Nick Sirianni should stay in Philly forever, in
[45:19] Speaker 1: my opinion. Thank you for doing me a solid, Nick.
[45:22] Speaker 1: I appreciate you. My question for you, Trev, because I
[45:24] Speaker 1: have your point total in front of me. Keep in mind,
[45:26] Speaker 1: you came into the week with a season total of 148,
[45:29] Speaker 1: so you're up one point on me.
[45:32] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[45:33] Speaker 1: Do you think you hit double digits?
[45:40] Speaker 4: No.
[45:42] Speaker 1: I don't. Good instinct. You got eight points. Oh, my gosh.
[45:47] Speaker 1: That's it? You got eight, buddy. Dude, you know what?
[45:52] Speaker 2: You know what? I told our producers before we started recording,
[45:55] Speaker 2: if my number doesn't start with a minus sign, you know,
[46:00] Speaker 2: as long as it's not negative overall points, as long
[46:04] Speaker 2: as I get some positive points this week, I'm okay
[46:07] Speaker 2: with that.
[46:07] Speaker 1: But eight. So you got your three points. You got
[46:13] Speaker 1: your nine spot game correct, which was Jacksonville at nine.
[46:17] Speaker 1: And you got you got Baltimore over Atlanta. So you
[46:21] Speaker 1: got eight points for that. But you got minus 10
[46:23] Speaker 1: from your 10 spot game. And then the only other
[46:25] Speaker 1: game that you got correct was Pittsburgh over Indy at
[46:29] Speaker 1: your one spot, which ultimately ended up at eight points.
[46:34] Speaker 1: As bad as that is, I think I did worse.
[46:38] Speaker 1: Did I do worse? Oh, no. I'm pretty sure I did.
[46:40] Speaker 2: No, because you didn't get minus 10. Now, you didn't
[46:44] Speaker 2: have a good week, my friend. I won't lie to
[46:46] Speaker 2: you and tell you that. But you got 22 points.
[46:49] Speaker 2: You got 22 points this week.
[46:51] Speaker 1: Okay.
[46:52] Speaker 2: The non-minus 10 in your equation really did a lot
[46:55] Speaker 2: of heavy lifting here. But if I was up one
[46:58] Speaker 2: last week... that means that you are now up 13
[47:02] Speaker 2: and that's doable. I was very scared as those games
[47:05] Speaker 2: were coming to final on Sunday that you were going
[47:08] Speaker 2: to be up 50 points or something and I was
[47:10] Speaker 2: going to have no prayer of catching you But I
[47:12] Speaker 2: can catch it for 13 points.
[47:14] Speaker 1: I can do that. We're still alive in this one.
[47:16] Speaker 1: The scores?
[47:17] Speaker 2: Much lower this week than they were last week. Not
[47:19] Speaker 2: just from us, but also from the people as well.
[47:22] Speaker 2: For the final standings, let's shout out some people who
[47:25] Speaker 2: commented their game picks. And we keep score. And we'll
[47:28] Speaker 2: shout out the best ones every single week. But breathe
[47:31] Speaker 2: times two. A nice lesson for us after we had
[47:33] Speaker 2: a bad week of picking. 37 total points as the
[47:37] Speaker 2: top scorer. Adam got 35. Bobby and PB9 both tied
[47:42] Speaker 2: at 32.
[47:43] Speaker 1: Those were the leaders for last week.
[47:45] Speaker 2: I will say that the minus 10 rule absolutely drew
[47:49] Speaker 2: blood this week everywhere where there were game picks. As
[47:52] Speaker 2: 79 of the 102 people who submitted their picks....
[47:59] Speaker 1: Put a team at number 10 that lost.
[48:02] Speaker 2: And in fact, and in fact, the biggest trap game
[48:07] Speaker 2: was the one I had is my 10. The Bucks
[48:10] Speaker 2: and the Cowboys, 98 out of 102 entries, Brett, picked
[48:17] Speaker 2: the Dallas Cowboys to win that game.
[48:19] Speaker 1: Only four people picked the Buccaneers to win.
[48:23] Speaker 2: And breathe times two, the person who had the highest
[48:26] Speaker 2: score this week, they ranked them at the nine spot
[48:30] Speaker 2: for confidence.
[48:32] Speaker 1: Are you kidding me?
[48:33] Speaker 2: Not only did they get the Bucs to win, this
[48:35] Speaker 2: is somebody who deeply hates the Dallas Cowboys, and I
[48:39] Speaker 2: respect it for how many points they got for picking
[48:45] Speaker 2: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in this game. So, yes, that's
[48:48] Speaker 2: the table that is set from the people here from
[48:50] Speaker 2: last week.
[48:51] Speaker 1: But they didn't hate the Cowboys enough to put the
[48:54] Speaker 1: Bucs at the 10 spot. That's true. They didn't trust
[48:56] Speaker 1: them entirely. But my God, well done. 37 points. Shall
[49:01] Speaker 1: we get into these, by the way? Let's do it.
[49:03] Speaker 1: Let's dig into it.
[49:04] Speaker 2: The first game that we have on the list is
[49:06] Speaker 2: Houston versus Jacksonville. Divisional matchup here and one that, boy,
[49:12] Speaker 2: the Houston Texans very badly need. Who are you picking
[49:16] Speaker 2: in this game.
[49:16] Speaker 1: And where is it in the confidence rankings? This... might
[49:21] Speaker 1: be the homer in me, but I am taking Houston
[49:23] Speaker 1: in this game, and I do have a legitimate reason
[49:25] Speaker 1: for it. It's not just because they traded for Marvin
[49:27] Speaker 1: Harrison Jr. That, to me, isn't the biggest factor here.
[49:30] Speaker 1: When you lose your left tackle... The week before you're
[49:33] Speaker 1: supposed to play against Will Anderson and Daniil Hunter, that
[49:35] Speaker 1: is a massive point of concern if I was a
[49:38] Speaker 1: Jags fan. Travis Hunter has played really, really well at
[49:43] Speaker 1: corner so far this year, as we've talked about throughout
[49:46] Speaker 1: the season. But that being said, even if he's matched
[49:50] Speaker 1: up on Nico Collins, CJ spreads the ball around so
[49:53] Speaker 1: much in this offense, and there are other weapons on
[49:56] Speaker 1: the field that I think, even if Hunter does have
[49:58] Speaker 1: a good day against Nico, it obviously doesn't You know,
[50:02] Speaker 1: injecting Marv into this team is potentially their new X receiver.
[50:05] Speaker 1: We'll see. And use Nico as a moving chess piece.
[50:07] Speaker 1: I think there's enough targets here where Stroud can still
[50:10] Speaker 1: have a good day through the air, even if Hunter
[50:12] Speaker 1: has a great day. I still don't think the Texans
[50:15] Speaker 1: are going to be able to run the ball that well,
[50:17] Speaker 1: but it hasn't necessarily affected Stroud that much. You know,
[50:21] Speaker 1: not having a run game. He's been great this year.
[50:23] Speaker 1: Trevor's been great this year. It's a battle between two
[50:25] Speaker 1: really good young quarterbacks, but ultimately, the Jags not having
[50:28] Speaker 1: their left tackle against arguably the best edge duo in
[50:32] Speaker 1: the league, that to me is hard to overcome. So
[50:34] Speaker 1: give me the Texans. I put it at the four spot.
[50:36] Speaker 2: Okay, so I put the Jags at the four spot.
[50:38] Speaker 2: So we're starting off at the same spot here. We're
[50:40] Speaker 2: just flipping teams. I am definitely worried about the Jags'
[50:45] Speaker 2: offensive line overall. Anytime you have injuries and you're going
[50:47] Speaker 2: up against the best duo that we have in the NFL,
[50:51] Speaker 2: not ideal. So that's advantage Houston. But I will say
[50:54] Speaker 2: that Houston's lack of ability to run the football and
[50:57] Speaker 2: control this game the way that they would want to
[51:00] Speaker 2: and keep that Jags' offense off the field, I'm worried
[51:03] Speaker 2: about that on their side of things as well. I
[51:06] Speaker 2: think this is going to be a close game. I
[51:07] Speaker 2: think this is a game where throw the records out
[51:09] Speaker 2: of it. I don't care what the records are.
[51:11] Speaker 1: Of this team anymore.
[51:12] Speaker 2: To me, this one's going to be really close, but
[51:14] Speaker 2: I do have more faith in this Jacksonville team just
[51:17] Speaker 2: because I think it's one of the best in the
[51:19] Speaker 2: NFL and where I think Houston is going to get
[51:21] Speaker 2: better is a really tough opponent on that road to
[51:24] Speaker 2: getting better. So give me Jacksonville here in this one.
[51:27] Speaker 2: I've also got that one at the four spot. Atlanta
[51:30] Speaker 2: and Chicago. So remember, Ben Johnson kind of talked about, hey,
[51:35] Speaker 2: there's a chance that Caleb Williams comes back and certainly
[51:38] Speaker 2: looking at the quarterback performance of the Chicago Bears last week,
[51:41] Speaker 2: they would certainly be love that. They're coming up against
[51:44] Speaker 2: a Falcons team that was red hot before that overtime
[51:47] Speaker 2: loss to Baltimore, which thank you, Baltimore, because if I
[51:51] Speaker 2: didn't get those eight points from the Ravens, I would
[51:53] Speaker 2: have been sitting at zero. So I'm very thankful for
[51:57] Speaker 2: that one. But what do you think about Atlanta this
[51:58] Speaker 2: week going up against the Chicago Bears?
[52:01] Speaker 1: There is a really interesting dichotomy between pressured Michael Penix
[52:05] Speaker 1: and unpressured Michael Penix. When Penix is not pressured, He
[52:11] Speaker 1: was top two in EPA per dropback. When he is pressured,
[52:16] Speaker 1: he is dead last. And that is something I am
[52:20] Speaker 1: worried about for the Falcons. Luckily for them, the Bears'
[52:24] Speaker 1: pass rush isn't actually that great. And now that Dio's injured,
[52:27] Speaker 1: it's not going to be great this week either. So
[52:31] Speaker 1: if Penix is kept clean, they could have a lot
[52:33] Speaker 1: of success offensively. And obviously, you know, Bijan's incredible and
[52:36] Speaker 1: Drake London's incredible and all that kind of stuff. Really,
[52:38] Speaker 1: the Falcons offense is going to struggle against teams that
[52:40] Speaker 1: can actually just make Pennix uncomfortable. Under pressure per NextGenStats.
[52:46] Speaker 1: Last week against Baltimore, 2 of 9 for like 3.6
[52:50] Speaker 1: yards per attempt. It just wasn't great. That third and
[52:54] Speaker 1: five that could have clinched the game for them. He
[52:57] Speaker 1: was under pressure against a zero look. Missed the throw
[53:00] Speaker 1: against Bijan, where Bijan was matched up in space against
[53:02] Speaker 1: a 40-year-old Calais Campbell. You hit that throw, you probably
[53:06] Speaker 1: win the game. They didn't hit the throw. They didn't
[53:08] Speaker 1: win the game. So that's the key thing for here
[53:11] Speaker 1: on the Atlanta side. On the Chicago side, is Caleb playing,
[53:14] Speaker 1: yes or no? I believe he is, just based on
[53:18] Speaker 1: the pregame workout that he did this past week. It
[53:22] Speaker 1: looked like they were really close to letting him go,
[53:26] Speaker 1: but they wanted to be cautious with it just to
[53:28] Speaker 1: make sure that there were no complications. I do believe
[53:30] Speaker 1: he's going to play this week, if I had to
[53:33] Speaker 1: guess on that. And I still, even with their banged
[53:37] Speaker 1: up running backs and even with the secondary not playing
[53:41] Speaker 1: super well last week, I still do believe that the
[53:44] Speaker 1: difference in quarterback play between Caleb Williams and Michael Penix
[53:48] Speaker 1: is big enough where I think the Bears are going
[53:50] Speaker 1: to win this game. That being said, not very confident
[53:54] Speaker 1: in it. I put it at the three spot.
[53:57] Speaker 2: Okay, so I have the Bears winning this game as well.
[54:02] Speaker 2: I have it I have it at the seventh spot.
[54:05] Speaker 2: And I think that that just comes down to how
[54:07] Speaker 2: much faith I have in Ben Johnson with Caleb Williams
[54:11] Speaker 2: as his quarterback. Now, I think the interesting part in
[54:14] Speaker 2: this game isn't necessarily Caleb himself, but it's how Caleb's
[54:18] Speaker 2: presence can affect the run game for Chicago. Because you
[54:21] Speaker 2: go back to that Packers game. Yeah, it was a
[54:24] Speaker 2: massive gap on the scoreboard. But really, the difference.
[54:29] Speaker 1: In this game was.
[54:31] Speaker 2: how quickly the Bears let this script get away from them,
[54:34] Speaker 2: and then they were not able to run the ball.
[54:36] Speaker 2: You get into the second half of this game, you
[54:37] Speaker 2: basically have to throw. You're down so much on the scoreboard.
[54:40] Speaker 2: They're down two scores in the second quarter. You can't
[54:43] Speaker 2: even play the game plan that you want to. And
[54:44] Speaker 2: for as much as the talk is always about Ben
[54:47] Speaker 2: Johnson and Caleb Williams and you know, what they can
[54:49] Speaker 2: do in this offense, passing the football and all the
[54:51] Speaker 2: explosives through the air. It's the run game, man. I mean,
[54:53] Speaker 2: you go back to that Carolina game that they played
[54:55] Speaker 2: in week one. Yeah, Caleb was great. It was the
[54:57] Speaker 2: run game, man. They were running the ball all over
[54:59] Speaker 2: the Panthers and that's what they want to do. Now
[55:01] Speaker 2: the Falcons specifically have been great at defending the run
[55:05] Speaker 2: this year. They're one of the better teams when it
[55:06] Speaker 2: comes to yards per game allowed on the ground. They've
[55:10] Speaker 2: been very sound in that area. So I think the
[55:13] Speaker 2: Bears will need Caleb to be in this game to
[55:16] Speaker 2: take off that pressure of the run game. But if
[55:18] Speaker 2: he plays, and I agree with you, I think he
[55:20] Speaker 2: does play. I think that offense is balanced enough. And
[55:24] Speaker 2: I think that they're able to get it done. So
[55:26] Speaker 2: I put Chicago at the seven spot here because I
[55:29] Speaker 2: think it's going to be a little bit better for
[55:30] Speaker 2: them on the ground because they're going to be a
[55:32] Speaker 2: little bit more balanced in this game. Speaking of the
[55:35] Speaker 2: Baltimore Ravens, who defeated the Atlanta Falcons last week, Baltimore's
[55:39] Speaker 2: taking on the Cleveland Browns. Browns coming off a loss
[55:42] Speaker 2: to the New York Jets. What do you think about
[55:43] Speaker 2: this game? Who are you taking and where is it.
[55:45] Speaker 1: In the rankings? I'm taking Baltimore. I put it at
[55:48] Speaker 1: the sixth spot. I don't think that Huntley had a
[55:53] Speaker 1: remarkable day last week against Atlanta, but he did exactly
[55:57] Speaker 1: what a backup quarterback is supposed to do. Second half
[56:00] Speaker 1: in OT, he was 13 of 14, didn't even attempt
[56:03] Speaker 1: to pass over 20 yards, only completed two passes over
[56:06] Speaker 1: 10 yards. But if you're looking at the passing map
[56:10] Speaker 1: and seeing how he distributed the ball underneath, he used
[56:13] Speaker 1: every blade of grass under 10 yards. It wasn't just a,
[56:15] Speaker 1: I'm pushing it to the boundary. He also used the
[56:18] Speaker 1: short middle of the field too, which if you're going
[56:21] Speaker 1: to play that kind of point guard style, that's exactly
[56:24] Speaker 1: how you should be doing. You should be willing to
[56:25] Speaker 1: work the middle as well. So I think whether it's Huntley...
[56:29] Speaker 1: Or Lamar, as of right now, we don't know if
[56:32] Speaker 1: Lamar is going to be back. But no matter who
[56:36] Speaker 1: is in there at quarterback for Baltimore, I have confidence
[56:38] Speaker 1: in their ability to execute this offense because they are still,
[56:42] Speaker 1: even after starting Snoop against a good Falcons defense, they're
[56:46] Speaker 1: the number one offense in the entire league in terms
[56:49] Speaker 1: of success rate. Like Declan Doyle is cooking no matter
[56:52] Speaker 1: who is out there. So I have a lot of
[56:55] Speaker 1: confidence in this offense. I have confidence in Jesse Minter
[56:58] Speaker 1: in terms of game management over, let's just say the
[57:01] Speaker 1: previous era. I think he's been overall very good at that. And,
[57:06] Speaker 1: you know, Cleveland, I think they're better than I thought
[57:11] Speaker 1: they would be going into this year. I think a
[57:13] Speaker 1: lot of their young talent has played really well. Denzel
[57:15] Speaker 1: Boston's been awesome. You know, they've been very good at
[57:18] Speaker 1: getting yards after the catch. I just still feel like
[57:21] Speaker 1: they're a year away from being a year away. And
[57:24] Speaker 1: while this game will be close, I really do believe
[57:27] Speaker 1: it's going to be close. Ultimately, I just have more
[57:31] Speaker 1: faith in the baseline of the Baltimore Ravens than I
[57:35] Speaker 1: do in the baseline of the Cleveland Browns. So give
[57:37] Speaker 1: me the Ravens in this one narrowly. But I did
[57:40] Speaker 1: put it at the confidence spot of six.
[57:43] Speaker 2: Yeah, the Browns are still a team that is playing
[57:46] Speaker 2: a lot of young guys. And I think early on
[57:48] Speaker 2: in the season, they were playing above expectation. They really
[57:50] Speaker 2: were able to surprise teams. And that's how you get
[57:52] Speaker 2: a couple of those early wins for Cleveland. But I
[57:55] Speaker 2: think this past week against the Browns, or excuse me,
[57:58] Speaker 2: this past week against the Jets, you saw, okay, we're
[58:02] Speaker 2: playing a lot of rookies. And it really showed up
[58:04] Speaker 2: in this game specifically with how often Deshaun Watson was pressured.
[58:07] Speaker 2: Deshaun was pressured on 26 of his 44 dropbacks. It's
[58:10] Speaker 2: almost a 60% pressure rate. It's the second highest pressure
[58:13] Speaker 2: rate Watson's faced in a single game since 2018. It
[58:15] Speaker 2: was the most of an Aaron Glenn team since he
[58:18] Speaker 2: took over for the New York Jets. And so they
[58:21] Speaker 2: were really able to get after a younger offensive line.
[58:25] Speaker 2: And even though the Ravens' pass rush isn't the best
[58:28] Speaker 2: that it's been over the last half decade, I still
[58:31] Speaker 2: think that this unit can rattle Deshaun Watson and this
[58:34] Speaker 2: offense and a lot of these young guys, especially if
[58:36] Speaker 2: the offense is playing at a pretty high level. Like
[58:39] Speaker 2: you had mentioned, their success rate's been pretty consistently high
[58:42] Speaker 2: all season long.
[58:44] Speaker 1: If that's going to.
[58:44] Speaker 2: Continue to be the case, which I think that it
[58:46] Speaker 2: can be, give me Baltimore in this one. They were
[58:49] Speaker 2: lucky for me in the eighth spot last week. Let's
[58:52] Speaker 2: keep them in the eighth spot for this week. So
[58:53] Speaker 2: I'll take Baltimore and I'll have them at the eighth
[58:55] Speaker 2: spot here. What about the Philadelphia Eagles and the Carolina Panthers?
[59:00] Speaker 2: What do you think.
[59:01] Speaker 3: About this game?
[59:02] Speaker 1: What do the Eagles do well? Like, I don't... Truly.
[59:07] Speaker 2: It's it's, it's one of those things that I can
[59:10] Speaker 2: answer that question for you inconsistently. Like, I think that
[59:15] Speaker 2: hurts is still doing a nice job of avoiding the
[59:18] Speaker 2: big negatives and escaping pressure when it's in the pocket
[59:22] Speaker 2: versus a, an offensive line. That's not ideal or not
[59:25] Speaker 2: typical of a Philly offensive line over the last half decade. Um,
[59:29] Speaker 2: they can throw it deep, you know, when the game
[59:32] Speaker 2: script kind of calls for it, especially outside the numbers,
[59:34] Speaker 2: cause Hertz is good at that. But do they do
[59:37] Speaker 2: those things consistently? No, even though they're good at it,
[59:40] Speaker 2: they don't do them consistently this year. So it's tough
[59:42] Speaker 2: to answer that question.
[59:44] Speaker 1: I think, you know, while Carolina does have some of
[59:47] Speaker 1: their own issues, obviously they've been banged up on defense,
[59:50] Speaker 1: you know, losing both corners doesn't help anybody. Um, you know,
[59:54] Speaker 1: I think the bye week came at a good time
[59:56] Speaker 1: for them to try to get healthy again. but offensively
[1:00:00] Speaker 1: these two teams are not in the same tier, like
[1:00:04] Speaker 1: not even close. Like Bryce is playing fantastic. McMillan is
[1:00:08] Speaker 1: playing fan, like more than fantastic. He's been unbelievable, especially
[1:00:11] Speaker 1: now they're giving him more reps in the slot where
[1:00:13] Speaker 1: he is just eating people alive. The run game was productive.
[1:00:16] Speaker 1: The last time we saw them young offensive line, you know,
[1:00:19] Speaker 1: similar to Cleveland, I think has been a little up
[1:00:23] Speaker 1: and down, but Bryce has been so good under pressure.
[1:00:25] Speaker 1: It hasn't really mattered that much. I think Canales is
[1:00:28] Speaker 1: getting the most out of this team, even through the
[1:00:30] Speaker 1: injuries that started back in August in camp. We still
[1:00:35] Speaker 1: haven't seen anything close to what a fully armed and
[1:00:38] Speaker 1: operational Panthers team looks like when they're fully healthy. We
[1:00:41] Speaker 1: won't this entire year because of some of their injuries.
[1:00:44] Speaker 1: But they're still a really good team even through that.
[1:00:47] Speaker 1: And they just do so many things well that they
[1:00:49] Speaker 1: can hang their hat on, especially offensively compared to the Eagles,
[1:00:53] Speaker 1: that I don't think they have an identity. I don't
[1:00:55] Speaker 1: think they... they have anything they can really lean on
[1:00:58] Speaker 1: to win this game. So give me Carolina, put them
[1:01:00] Speaker 1: at the eight spot.
[1:01:02] Speaker 2: So I also have Carolina in this game. I have
[1:01:04] Speaker 2: them at the five spot right in the middle. And
[1:01:09] Speaker 2: I have more faith in Carolina to execute this game
[1:01:13] Speaker 2: plan the way that they want to, but they could
[1:01:15] Speaker 2: potentially have some other heavy hitters coming back in this game, right?
[1:01:18] Speaker 2: Devontae Smith could come back in this game. Saquon Barkley
[1:01:20] Speaker 2: could come back in this game. And obviously they've had
[1:01:22] Speaker 2: those guys and still had their struggles, but If those
[1:01:24] Speaker 2: guys play, Angus is a lot closer, and I think
[1:01:27] Speaker 2: they have the ability to keep this game closer than
[1:01:29] Speaker 2: maybe most think. But when you talk about Bryce Young
[1:01:31] Speaker 2: and this Panthers offense, it's fantastic. He's top five, if
[1:01:34] Speaker 2: not top three in passing yards, completion percentage above expected,
[1:01:38] Speaker 2: EPA per dropback, all against zone. He is an assassin
[1:01:42] Speaker 2: this year, and anytime you have a quarterback who's playing
[1:01:44] Speaker 2: that confidently, it's hard to bet against him. So even
[1:01:46] Speaker 2: though I only have him at the five spot here,
[1:01:48] Speaker 2: I do still have the Carolina Panthers at the five
[1:01:51] Speaker 2: spot to beat the Philadelphia Eagles. The Pittsburgh Steelers and
[1:01:55] Speaker 2: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay, the team that tripped
[1:01:58] Speaker 2: up everybody last week. Who are you picking in this
[1:02:02] Speaker 2: game and where is it going on the confidence rankings?
[1:02:04] Speaker 1: So the Steelers have been another one of these teams
[1:02:06] Speaker 1: that has been really good at getting yards after the catch.
[1:02:09] Speaker 1: They had 179 yards after the catch last week. Aaron Rodgers,
[1:02:15] Speaker 1: he's three straight games with three touchdowns. But a lot
[1:02:18] Speaker 1: of that is just because his guys have been so
[1:02:20] Speaker 1: good after the catch. And I do wonder... if Tampa
[1:02:26] Speaker 1: Bay is going to be able to do anything about
[1:02:27] Speaker 1: Jalen Warren in space, it feels like nobody's been able
[1:02:29] Speaker 1: to do anything about Jalen Warren in space so far
[1:02:31] Speaker 1: this year. I do think that this is going to
[1:02:34] Speaker 1: be a fairly close game. I don't necessarily think that,
[1:02:40] Speaker 1: that Pittsburgh is, how do I say this diplomatically? I
[1:02:45] Speaker 1: don't think they're going to be there in the end
[1:02:47] Speaker 1: at the AFC.
[1:02:48] Speaker 3: Hmm.
[1:02:49] Speaker 2: Okay.
[1:02:50] Speaker 1: But I also don't think Tampa's even going to be
[1:02:52] Speaker 1: in the playoffs at this point. So if we're just
[1:02:54] Speaker 1: looking at which team is better, I would say Pittsburgh
[1:02:57] Speaker 1: is better. But this reads to me like a battle
[1:03:00] Speaker 1: of two teams that are not contenders. And so which
[1:03:06] Speaker 1: one is just closer to being solid or just is solid?
[1:03:10] Speaker 1: I would say the Steelers. Really exciting, young, talented offensive line,
[1:03:14] Speaker 1: plus great running back, plus quarterback that's just not making mistakes,
[1:03:18] Speaker 1: and Aaron Rodgers. you know, you have a woolly mammoth
[1:03:22] Speaker 1: at tight end and Darnell Washington, where you give him
[1:03:24] Speaker 1: the ball and let him rumble. There's just so many
[1:03:26] Speaker 1: things that they can do. That's what he is, man.
[1:03:30] Speaker 1: Like he's just impossible to bring down by, by yourself.
[1:03:32] Speaker 1: So like Rogers doesn't have to make crazy throws. He
[1:03:35] Speaker 1: just has guys that can make plays once they have
[1:03:37] Speaker 1: the ball in their hands. And that's a tough formula
[1:03:40] Speaker 1: to deal with. So yeah, give me Pittsburgh here, but
[1:03:42] Speaker 1: I did put it at the one spot. Cause I,
[1:03:44] Speaker 1: I still, I'm, I'm not all the way in on
[1:03:47] Speaker 1: the Steelers this year. I just think they're better than Tampa.
[1:03:49] Speaker 2: Yeah, understandably so. I mean, it's interesting that you brought
[1:03:52] Speaker 2: up Aaron Rodgers. 22 of 31 passes last week, 235 yards,
[1:03:56] Speaker 2: three touchdowns, no interceptions.
[1:03:57] Speaker 1: You'd be like, well, phenomenal day at the office.
[1:04:00] Speaker 2: For Aaron Rodgers. 4.1 air yards per attempt. That's his
[1:04:04] Speaker 2: lowest of a single game this season.
[1:04:06] Speaker 1: So you're right.
[1:04:06] Speaker 2: That's the script. But even with that being the script...
[1:04:10] Speaker 2: I don't know how much faith I have in the
[1:04:13] Speaker 2: Buccaneers to be able to cover either Jalen Warren or
[1:04:15] Speaker 2: Darnell Washington, like you mentioned. I think that Jacob Parrish
[1:04:18] Speaker 2: has been fantastic and very reliable for them tackling, but
[1:04:21] Speaker 2: he's just one man in that secondary. The rest is
[1:04:24] Speaker 2: kind of up for grabs. I took Pittsburgh and I
[1:04:27] Speaker 2: took them at the sixth spot here just because I
[1:04:29] Speaker 2: don't think that Pittsburgh has a high ceiling as a team.
[1:04:32] Speaker 2: But even the floor of this team, I think you
[1:04:34] Speaker 2: have to kind of bet on that given all of
[1:04:36] Speaker 2: Tampa's inconsistencies. Even last week, I mean, Tampa was great,
[1:04:40] Speaker 2: don't get me wrong, but you take out a couple
[1:04:42] Speaker 2: of Bucky Irving crazy runs from this game and they
[1:04:46] Speaker 2: might not even win that game against a Cowboys team
[1:04:49] Speaker 2: that played horribly. So it's hard to have a lot
[1:04:53] Speaker 2: of faith in this Tampa team until they really start
[1:04:55] Speaker 2: to stack better games and I'm not ready to bet
[1:04:58] Speaker 2: on them yet. So give me Pittsburgh, give me them
[1:04:59] Speaker 2: at the sixth spot here. What about the Los Angeles
[1:05:02] Speaker 2: Rams and the Arizona Cardinals as our next game here?
[1:05:05] Speaker 2: A battle in the NFC West.
[1:05:07] Speaker 1: That Cardinals game was not close. They jumped out to
[1:05:10] Speaker 1: an early lead. They got a couple, not even a couple,
[1:05:12] Speaker 1: they got three three-and-outs in a row off the Lions.
[1:05:14] Speaker 1: They had a 14-play drive that scored early. And then
[1:05:16] Speaker 1: they went three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out. Back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back. And then
[1:05:22] Speaker 1: threw a pick going into halftime. You know, it's arm punt.
[1:05:25] Speaker 1: Last few seconds, who cares? But you have six straight
[1:05:29] Speaker 1: drives doing absolutely nothing. And in that time span, the
[1:05:32] Speaker 1: Lions did touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, field goal. Next thing you know,
[1:05:36] Speaker 1: it's 24-7. So they started out getting three stops and
[1:05:39] Speaker 1: with a lead and then just got steamrolled. This team
[1:05:45] Speaker 1: is not close. They're really not close. And looking back
[1:05:49] Speaker 1: on that win... against the Chargers in week one, where
[1:05:52] Speaker 1: initially we're like, oh, okay, Cardinals might be kind of
[1:05:55] Speaker 1: feisty here. Like, we like the Chargers. Now we know
[1:05:58] Speaker 1: the Chargers are just bad. Yeah, right. It's like, okay,
[1:06:01] Speaker 1: that was a bad team beating a bad team, right?
[1:06:03] Speaker 1: So I just, I don't think they're anything near the
[1:06:07] Speaker 1: Rams at this point. Not that the Rams don't have
[1:06:09] Speaker 1: their own issues. Obviously they do. But when the rubber
[1:06:13] Speaker 1: meets the road and you play against a really good
[1:06:16] Speaker 1: quarterback with really good weapons and a really good in
[1:06:19] Speaker 1: a really good system, even if you spot them seven
[1:06:23] Speaker 1: points early, they can just have these avalanches happen against them.
[1:06:28] Speaker 1: When they do these three and outs, and their defense
[1:06:31] Speaker 1: gets gassed because they're always on the field, and the
[1:06:33] Speaker 1: offense can't stay on the field, and it just looks
[1:06:35] Speaker 1: like that. So give me the Rams. I'm very, very
[1:06:40] Speaker 1: confident in this one. I put it at the nine spot.
[1:06:45] Speaker 2: I'll do you one better. I put them at the
[1:06:47] Speaker 2: 10 spot. I picked the Rams at the 10 spot
[1:06:49] Speaker 2: in this game. And the reason why is because I
[1:06:51] Speaker 2: think that these are teams that are going in different directions.
[1:06:53] Speaker 2: I understand the Rams didn't win in overtime against the Bills,
[1:06:56] Speaker 2: but I think they're looking better and better as a
[1:06:59] Speaker 2: team overall.
[1:07:00] Speaker 1: And even though I.
[1:07:01] Speaker 2: Think that the Rams can certainly put up points, I trust,
[1:07:04] Speaker 2: or sorry, the Cardinals can put up points. I trust
[1:07:07] Speaker 2: the Rams to be the better finisher in this game.
[1:07:09] Speaker 2: And also, Brett, they have to win this game. They
[1:07:14] Speaker 2: have to win this game because this is now the
[1:07:17] Speaker 2: start of their run.
[1:07:18] Speaker 1: Of Cardinals, Raiders, Chargers, Commanders, Cardinals.
[1:07:22] Speaker 2: And in that five-game stretch, they basically have to win
[1:07:25] Speaker 2: four out of those five games. And if you drop
[1:07:28] Speaker 2: the first one, that's not the place that you want
[1:07:30] Speaker 2: to be. So I think this Rams team knows that
[1:07:34] Speaker 2: their back's against the wall here. They have to win
[1:07:36] Speaker 2: this game against the Cardinals. And I think they're going
[1:07:39] Speaker 2: to give the Cardinals their absolute best. So give me
[1:07:42] Speaker 2: Los Angeles here. I've got them at the 10th spot
[1:07:44] Speaker 2: this week. Staying in Los Angeles, the Chargers are taking
[1:07:48] Speaker 2: on the Kansas City Chiefs. What do you think about
[1:07:50] Speaker 2: this game?
[1:07:50] Speaker 1: I got to go to the Chiefs. Similar kind of
[1:07:52] Speaker 1: thing when we talk about the Eagles. What do the
[1:07:54] Speaker 1: Chargers do well right now other than just stop the
[1:07:58] Speaker 1: bleeding on defense? This is a very good defense in
[1:08:01] Speaker 1: terms of EPA per play, but they're still 22nd in
[1:08:04] Speaker 1: terms of points given up. just because they have by
[1:08:08] Speaker 1: far the most drives that start in their own territory
[1:08:12] Speaker 1: this year. It's over three and a half per game
[1:08:14] Speaker 1: that start in Charger territory that this Chargers defense has
[1:08:17] Speaker 1: to deal with. 19 total drives have started on their
[1:08:21] Speaker 1: side of the 50. You can't play defense that way either.
[1:08:29] Speaker 1: I feel bad for Chargers fans because it really did
[1:08:31] Speaker 1: feel like going into this year, The hype really was
[1:08:35] Speaker 1: at an all-time high. You bring in McDaniel. You have
[1:08:38] Speaker 1: your tackles back. On paper, we like the weapons. The defense,
[1:08:43] Speaker 1: you're still keeping the same system with the same core
[1:08:45] Speaker 1: of talent. Everything was lining up for them to just
[1:08:50] Speaker 1: be a better version of what they were last year.
[1:08:53] Speaker 1: And they are quite possibly the worst version of the
[1:08:57] Speaker 1: Chargers that I've seen either. even going back like multiple
[1:09:02] Speaker 1: regimes like did the Brandon Staley era Chargers ever look
[1:09:05] Speaker 1: this hopeless I'm not sure that they have and and
[1:09:11] Speaker 1: here we are five weeks into the season and they
[1:09:13] Speaker 1: they really do look hopeless So even with the defense
[1:09:16] Speaker 1: putting up a good fight, it hasn't really made that
[1:09:18] Speaker 1: much of a difference. Give me the Chiefs by a
[1:09:21] Speaker 1: lot in this game. I put it at the 7th spot.
[1:09:27] Speaker 2: Once again, I have this one a little bit higher
[1:09:29] Speaker 2: than you. Give me the Chiefs, and I'm going to
[1:09:31] Speaker 2: put it at the 9th spot. Now, the only saving
[1:09:32] Speaker 2: grace that I feel like I have for the Chargers
[1:09:35] Speaker 2: is the Chargers have played the Chiefs close a lot
[1:09:38] Speaker 2: over the last couple of seasons, and for the longest time,
[1:09:41] Speaker 2: the Chiefs have been— in ways still are, the crown
[1:09:45] Speaker 2: jewel of that division. And no matter what, any of
[1:09:50] Speaker 2: those three teams that go up against the Chiefs, the Broncos,
[1:09:55] Speaker 2: the Chargers, the Raiders, or whatever, they circle this game
[1:09:58] Speaker 2: on the calendar. They go, okay, who cares what we
[1:10:01] Speaker 2: did the rest of the year? If we can say
[1:10:04] Speaker 2: we beat Kansas City, we're going to have some pride.
[1:10:07] Speaker 2: And so again, just like I kind of talked about
[1:10:09] Speaker 2: with the Rams, that they've got to win this game.
[1:10:12] Speaker 2: I think the same with the Chargers. Because if you
[1:10:15] Speaker 2: beat the Chiefs, it can be a mini turnaround for you.
[1:10:18] Speaker 2: I think it's a little too late to be talking
[1:10:19] Speaker 2: about the postseason with them in any way, shape, or form.
[1:10:21] Speaker 2: But at least you're playing for some pride. You lose
[1:10:24] Speaker 2: this game, and this avalanche continues being winless, boy, this
[1:10:28] Speaker 2: is going to get real ugly down the stretch of
[1:10:30] Speaker 2: the season.
[1:10:30] Speaker 1: So again, this feels like a game where, I mean,
[1:10:34] Speaker 1: Herbert has looked... Just, I don't know, man.
[1:10:38] Speaker 2: Unfocused, it feels like at times. I mean, I don't
[1:10:40] Speaker 2: even know what he's looking at. He's throwing the easiest
[1:10:42] Speaker 2: interceptions of his entire career, even for people who criticize
[1:10:45] Speaker 2: Justin Herbert at the highest level. The interceptions that he's
[1:10:48] Speaker 2: throwing this year are totally different. They're in a totally
[1:10:51] Speaker 2: different level than anything that he has attempted and tried before.
[1:10:55] Speaker 2: It's like he's just not seeing defenders. The run game's inconsistent.
[1:10:57] Speaker 1: The O-line is beat up. The receivers aren't consistent. The defense,
[1:11:01] Speaker 1: you're right.
[1:11:01] Speaker 2: I mean, it's been okay at times, but It can't
[1:11:04] Speaker 2: hold up and it can't buoy this offense the way
[1:11:07] Speaker 2: that the offense has been playing. All that to say,
[1:11:10] Speaker 2: you beat the Chiefs, it's a totally different season. But
[1:11:13] Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to beat the Chiefs. Give
[1:11:14] Speaker 2: me Kansas City in this game and give me them
[1:11:16] Speaker 2: at the 9th spot here. Alright, next game, the Buffalo
[1:11:20] Speaker 2: Bills against the Las Vegas Raiders. Bills coming off of
[1:11:22] Speaker 2: a thrilling overtime victory against the Los Angeles Rams.
[1:11:25] Speaker 1: Who you got in this one? So, this is a
[1:11:27] Speaker 1: really interesting matchup because I'm not entirely sure what approach...
[1:11:32] Speaker 1: the Raiders defense is going to take here. Yeah, right, right.
[1:11:36] Speaker 1: They played with fire, played some quarters against Drake May.
[1:11:39] Speaker 1: That's not something you want to do. It basically creates
[1:11:41] Speaker 1: these one-on-ones. And if you're going to give Drake May
[1:11:43] Speaker 1: a one-on-one, he's going to drop the ball in the
[1:11:45] Speaker 1: bucket and he's going to score. Had three touchdowns just
[1:11:48] Speaker 1: against quarters last week. This is not necessarily a team
[1:11:51] Speaker 1: that majors in quarters. In fact, their most called coverage
[1:11:55] Speaker 1: is cover three. They also play a bunch of cloud,
[1:11:57] Speaker 1: but really they're only coverage that they're like top, in
[1:12:02] Speaker 1: is cover three and if you're looking at josh allen
[1:12:05] Speaker 1: specifically against cover three is a 105.7 passer rating against
[1:12:08] Speaker 1: it this year eight and a half yards per attempt
[1:12:11] Speaker 1: completion percentage over expected of 5.2 percent he's not getting
[1:12:15] Speaker 1: the same explosives that he did you know specifically against
[1:12:19] Speaker 1: these middle field closed coverages that you know when he
[1:12:22] Speaker 1: had like stefan diggs and gabe davis back when gabe
[1:12:26] Speaker 1: davis would all he did was catch 50 yarders right
[1:12:30] Speaker 1: it's not it's It's not the same explosive rate against
[1:12:33] Speaker 1: his coverage, but he's still very efficient against it. And
[1:12:36] Speaker 1: he has a bunch of targets that are really good
[1:12:38] Speaker 1: at finding these soft spots in the zone, especially against
[1:12:42] Speaker 1: cover three, and just making these hook droppers lives hell.
[1:12:46] Speaker 1: So this is almost like a N'Kobe Dean versus Josh
[1:12:49] Speaker 1: Allen kind of game. Yeah, that's what I thought too.
[1:12:53] Speaker 1: You and I are in the same spot. If anybody's
[1:12:55] Speaker 1: going to get targeted a lot, it's going to be
[1:12:56] Speaker 1: N'Kobe Dean. So how does he hold up here? That's
[1:12:59] Speaker 1: what I'm really curious to see. Also, the Raiders' rush
[1:13:03] Speaker 1: discipline has to be a lot better than the Rams' was.
[1:13:06] Speaker 1: We talked about that, obviously, where they were just giving
[1:13:09] Speaker 1: these seams for Allen to step up through the front door,
[1:13:11] Speaker 1: and he got 120 yards rushing on Monday night because
[1:13:15] Speaker 1: the Rams were bad at rush lane discipline. Can they
[1:13:18] Speaker 1: keep Allen contained in the pocket, and can these linebackers
[1:13:21] Speaker 1: not get eaten alive when they're in cover three? Those
[1:13:24] Speaker 1: are the two main questions. As far as the answers
[1:13:27] Speaker 1: to that, I still lean towards Josh Allen and the Bills.
[1:13:32] Speaker 1: I don't feel amazing about it, but if you ask
[1:13:35] Speaker 1: me to just look at the top line of Josh
[1:13:39] Speaker 1: Allen and the Bills versus Kirk Cousins and the Raiders,
[1:13:42] Speaker 1: how close do you think the Raiders are to being
[1:13:45] Speaker 1: at that level of team? A couple weeks ago, I
[1:13:48] Speaker 1: would have said fairly close. After last week, less so.
[1:13:53] Speaker 1: So I'll take Buffalo narrowly. I put it at the
[1:13:57] Speaker 1: five spot. I gave, I think, my respect to both sides.
[1:14:02] Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to be a blowout. I
[1:14:03] Speaker 1: don't think it's going to be an unentertaining game. In fact,
[1:14:06] Speaker 1: I think it's going to be damn good TV, but
[1:14:07] Speaker 1: I do think the Bills will win. I'm going to
[1:14:09] Speaker 1: take the Bills as well.
[1:14:10] Speaker 2: I only have it in my two spot, and it's
[1:14:12] Speaker 2: because I'm a little uncertain on a handful of things.
[1:14:16] Speaker 2: One of the big ones for the Raiders, and I
[1:14:18] Speaker 2: think they can definitely keep it close in this game
[1:14:20] Speaker 2: and maybe even get the upset because Look, if you
[1:14:22] Speaker 2: play a certain style of coverage that Josh Allen just
[1:14:24] Speaker 2: feels like he can get aggressive with and he can't,
[1:14:27] Speaker 2: let's say you've got an extra deep defender and he's like, yeah,
[1:14:29] Speaker 2: I'm still going to challenge it.
[1:14:30] Speaker 1: I mean, we even saw that for the Rams.
[1:14:32] Speaker 2: He had a throw where he was like, nah, okay,
[1:14:33] Speaker 2: I don't care. I'm just going to challenge it anyways.
[1:14:35] Speaker 2: You get too many of those and anybody can beat
[1:14:37] Speaker 2: the Bills. And I think that's the pro and the
[1:14:39] Speaker 2: con of Josh Allen, of course. You can beat anybody,
[1:14:41] Speaker 2: but also if you beat yourself, well, you're letting everybody
[1:14:44] Speaker 2: back in the door. But for the Raiders, the big
[1:14:46] Speaker 2: issue for me is along their offensive line. That's where
[1:14:48] Speaker 2: they really struggled defensively. last week for the first time
[1:14:51] Speaker 2: all season. They only had one offensive lineman. It was
[1:14:54] Speaker 2: DJ Glaze, who had a pressure percentage below 12% in
[1:14:57] Speaker 2: that game. Everybody else, I mean, I'm talking about quarterback
[1:15:00] Speaker 2: pressures allowed.
[1:15:01] Speaker 1: Colton Miller, five. Tyler Linderbaum, five.
[1:15:03] Speaker 2: Spencer Burford, nine. Jackson Powers Johnson, five. I mean, they're
[1:15:06] Speaker 2: just giving up pressures a lot to the Patriots, and
[1:15:09] Speaker 2: that was a major issue. If that doesn't get better,
[1:15:10] Speaker 2: they're not going to win. This is more of a
[1:15:12] Speaker 2: toss-up game than I thought. So give me Buffalo, but
[1:15:14] Speaker 2: give me them at the two spot. What about the
[1:15:16] Speaker 2: Washington Commanders? and the San Francisco 49ers. What do you
[1:15:20] Speaker 2: think about this game?
[1:15:22] Speaker 1: I'm really confident in the Niners. I'm also terrified because
[1:15:27] Speaker 1: I put it at my 10 spot. Ah, there it is.
[1:15:31] Speaker 1: There it is. 10 spots haven't been good for us lately, man.
[1:15:34] Speaker 1: Looking at all the games this week and what our
[1:15:38] Speaker 1: options were, it's like I could have maybe done Carolina there.
[1:15:41] Speaker 1: I maybe could have done the Rams there. Could have
[1:15:43] Speaker 1: done the Chiefs there. But ultimately, if we're just looking
[1:15:47] Speaker 1: at who is the best team out of those options,
[1:15:51] Speaker 1: I would say San Francisco. As far as who can
[1:15:53] Speaker 1: I rely on the most to get me a W
[1:15:55] Speaker 1: when I absolutely need it because I don't want to
[1:15:58] Speaker 1: lose 10 points, it is the Niners this year. They've
[1:16:02] Speaker 1: been banged up in typical Niners fashion. They have not
[1:16:05] Speaker 1: been completely healthy. It hasn't necessarily mattered that much. Brock
[1:16:10] Speaker 1: Purdy has played well. fantastic football all year long. He
[1:16:15] Speaker 1: did get got once last week. Mike McDonald got him
[1:16:18] Speaker 1: with a really nifty Palms call, picked him off there
[1:16:22] Speaker 1: with Nehemiah Pritchett. But other than that, played a really
[1:16:24] Speaker 1: efficient game. Mike Evans has just been a godsend for
[1:16:27] Speaker 1: this team. Offensive line, at least before the Seattle game,
[1:16:31] Speaker 1: was playing really, really good football. The defense, I mean,
[1:16:34] Speaker 1: Grayson Halton has just emerged as a force for them
[1:16:39] Speaker 1: on the inside. You have great linebackers there, even though
[1:16:42] Speaker 1: they are going to be down Dre Greenlaw in this game.
[1:16:44] Speaker 1: But I just compare the quarterback play, the talent, the coaching,
[1:16:50] Speaker 1: just all three of those things compared to what the
[1:16:52] Speaker 1: Commanders are working with right now. Especially situational awareness, the
[1:16:56] Speaker 1: difference between these two teams, apparently. I have to go
[1:16:59] Speaker 1: with the Niners. I really do.
[1:17:02] Speaker 2: I also have to go with the Niners. I only
[1:17:06] Speaker 2: have it in my three spot, and it's just because
[1:17:08] Speaker 2: I was like, is this a letdown game for San Francisco?
[1:17:12] Speaker 1: You know, they're riding high.
[1:17:14] Speaker 2: They're coming off of the victory against Seattle. Obviously, the
[1:17:18] Speaker 2: commanders are in the exact opposite spot. They should have
[1:17:21] Speaker 2: had a victory, and it obviously did not go well
[1:17:23] Speaker 2: at the end. You were talking about that situational awareness,
[1:17:25] Speaker 2: but they were still there at the end.
[1:17:27] Speaker 1: They were forcing the turnover.
[1:17:29] Speaker 2: They got the ball back. They marched into field goal position, and.
[1:17:33] Speaker 4: I don't know.
[1:17:34] Speaker 2: I saw it more explosive plays for them when Jaden
[1:17:37] Speaker 2: is back. Jaden was excellent as a scrambler as well.
[1:17:40] Speaker 2: I know that the Niners have the linebackers to be
[1:17:42] Speaker 2: able to handle that, but I just, again, like I'm
[1:17:44] Speaker 2: taking the Niners in this game.
[1:17:46] Speaker 1: It was just for whatever reason, I was just like, ah,
[1:17:50] Speaker 1: I don't know.
[1:17:50] Speaker 2: Like I could, I could see Jaden playing Superman and
[1:17:53] Speaker 2: almost being like, you know what?
[1:17:55] Speaker 1: Screw it.
[1:17:56] Speaker 2: Y'all I'm throwing caution to win. We got to start
[1:17:58] Speaker 2: winning football games. And, um, I guess it kind of
[1:18:02] Speaker 2: has to start this week for them, especially with them
[1:18:04] Speaker 2: being pissed off with how last week ended. So I'm
[1:18:07] Speaker 2: going to go with the Niners, but I got them
[1:18:09] Speaker 2: at three spots. So I'm giving Washington and maybe that desperation.
[1:18:12] Speaker 2: I think that might be a theme of some of
[1:18:14] Speaker 2: my picks here is some of the desperation that some
[1:18:16] Speaker 2: of these teams might have in why I think that
[1:18:18] Speaker 2: they're going to get a victory. Last game is the
[1:18:19] Speaker 2: Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers. Dallas coming off
[1:18:23] Speaker 2: of a major letdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on
[1:18:25] Speaker 2: Thursday night football. Packers coming off of a red-hot game
[1:18:30] Speaker 2: where they defeated the Chicago Bears by letting Jordan Love just, man, throw.
[1:18:36] Speaker 1: It all over the yard, especially deep down the field.
[1:18:38] Speaker 2: Do the Cowboys have what it takes to limit Jordan
[1:18:41] Speaker 2: Love and what he wants to do with those deep passes?
[1:18:43] Speaker 2: Who do you got winning this one, and where is
[1:18:45] Speaker 2: it in the confidence for you?
[1:18:47] Speaker 1: This is the one game of the week, and I
[1:18:49] Speaker 1: seem to have one of these. every single week, where
[1:18:51] Speaker 1: I just throw my hands up and say, I got
[1:18:52] Speaker 1: no idea.
[1:18:55] Speaker 2: We got no idea which version of the teams is
[1:18:57] Speaker 2: going to show up.
[1:18:58] Speaker 1: Yes, yes. I have no clue what we're going to
[1:19:02] Speaker 1: get from week to week with these teams. And now
[1:19:05] Speaker 1: that Mike Pettin's involved and he's going to have influence
[1:19:08] Speaker 1: on this defense, I don't even know what they're going
[1:19:09] Speaker 1: to look like defensively.
[1:19:10] Speaker 2: Not even effectiveness-wise. Scheme-wise, I don't know what they're going
[1:19:14] Speaker 2: to look like. Does he have a little bit of
[1:19:16] Speaker 2: an input?
[1:19:17] Speaker 1: Like, hey, you know what?
[1:19:18] Speaker 2: I'd maybe do a little bit here. Are they basically like, hey, buddy,
[1:19:20] Speaker 2: you're basically calling things. He's not basically calling things. But
[1:19:23] Speaker 2: you know what I'm saying? We've got to install more
[1:19:25] Speaker 2: stuff because whatever we've done on defense has not worked
[1:19:27] Speaker 2: to this.
[1:19:27] Speaker 1: Point in the season. Once upon a time in Philly,
[1:19:31] Speaker 1: where Christian Parker came from, And it was Gannon who
[1:19:35] Speaker 1: was the DC. Vic Fangio was a consultant behind the
[1:19:39] Speaker 1: scenes in Philly. This was like before he took the
[1:19:41] Speaker 1: Miami job. And he had major input on the defense,
[1:19:45] Speaker 1: even though he was living across the country over in
[1:19:47] Speaker 1: Northern California. But as a consultant, he would roll into
[1:19:50] Speaker 1: his office at Stanford every single day and give real
[1:19:54] Speaker 1: actionable insights on what they should do. And they were
[1:19:56] Speaker 1: really good defense consultants. So I don't know how much
[1:20:01] Speaker 1: input he's going to have here, but they didn't announce
[1:20:03] Speaker 1: that they hired him for nothing, right? Like clearly he's
[1:20:07] Speaker 1: going to be involved. And so I don't know what
[1:20:09] Speaker 1: this defense is going to look like. I also don't
[1:20:11] Speaker 1: know what the Packers offense is going to look like.
[1:20:13] Speaker 1: Is this offensive line terrible? Are they good? We get
[1:20:16] Speaker 1: different results from week to week. Maybe they'll settle somewhere
[1:20:19] Speaker 1: in the middle, but I don't know what version of
[1:20:21] Speaker 1: this Packers offensive line we're going to get either. So,
[1:20:24] Speaker 1: It's a battle between two teams that I don't have
[1:20:27] Speaker 1: a good read on. When they're at their best, they
[1:20:31] Speaker 1: can score on anyone. I'll say that about both of them, really.
[1:20:34] Speaker 1: So maybe this is like a 33-31 type of game.
[1:20:38] Speaker 1: But it could also very easily be kind of like
[1:20:40] Speaker 1: that slop fest we saw against Dallas, where the Cowboys
[1:20:44] Speaker 1: just can't get going and they just can't get their
[1:20:47] Speaker 1: defense off the field. And we end up with a
[1:20:49] Speaker 1: low possession count, low scoring defense. kind of weird to
[1:20:54] Speaker 1: watch game. That's like 17, 15 in the fourth quarter.
[1:20:57] Speaker 1: It could go either way here. I have no clue.
[1:21:01] Speaker 1: I'm taking Dallas.
[1:21:03] Speaker 2: Okay.
[1:21:03] Speaker 1: I don't feel good about it. Okay. And that's why
[1:21:05] Speaker 1: I put it at the two spot.
[1:21:07] Speaker 2: I also took Dallas and I put it at the
[1:21:09] Speaker 2: one spot. So just very similar reasons of we have
[1:21:13] Speaker 2: seen the best and the worst of these teams five
[1:21:17] Speaker 2: weeks into the season. And that's such a small sample
[1:21:19] Speaker 2: size to see such a strong variance of teams. that
[1:21:23] Speaker 2: it's hard to be able to predict what we are
[1:21:25] Speaker 2: going to see here. Especially, it might be a little
[1:21:28] Speaker 2: bit easier to predict if there wasn't the Mike Patton
[1:21:31] Speaker 2: domino in there. But truly, who knows what's going to
[1:21:36] Speaker 2: happen in this game. But give me Dallas. I'll take
[1:21:38] Speaker 2: the Dallas Cowboys. Those are our 10. 10 up and
[1:21:41] Speaker 2: 10 down. That's our confidence rankings.
[1:21:43] Speaker 1: All right. Very fun show.
[1:21:44] Speaker 2: Thank you guys for tuning in. We love to make
[1:21:47] Speaker 2: these shows for you. As deep diving as possible. Cover
[1:21:50] Speaker 2: as much as we possibly can. Hopefully you guys feel
[1:21:52] Speaker 2: that way as well. Shout out to the producers who
[1:21:54] Speaker 2: put on this beast of a show every single week
[1:21:56] Speaker 2: and all the NGS people who get us so many
[1:21:59] Speaker 2: fantastic stats and data points to be able to do
[1:22:02] Speaker 2: a lot of really cool stuff on this show. For
[1:22:03] Speaker 2: Brett Coleman, I'm Trevor Sykema saying thank you guys so
[1:22:05] Speaker 2: much for watching and we'll see you after all the
[1:22:08] Speaker 2: week six games on Sunday and we'll see you on Monday.
[1:22:11] Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to our week six preview show. Listen
[1:22:14] Speaker 2: to NFL Pro on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or
[1:22:16] Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts.

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