# Brett & Trevor Preview the BIGGEST Week 1 Games | NFL Pro Show

An episode of [NFL: The Insiders](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1543090622), 11 Sep 2026, 1 h 08 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/f10d0743-9ff9-4fde-8286-b4b200dd74e1/1c39e4a3-a356-4818-a2d9-b4c20121fbf6/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=3e412703-0644-468e-9001-ae390070e4db

NFL Pro hosts Brett Kollmann and Trevor Sikkema deep-dive on the key Next Gen Stats insights and schemes that will determine the outcome of Week 1's biggest matchups. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: All right, Sickos, welcome back to the NFL Pro Podcast.
[0:03] Speaker 1: This is everything that you need to know heading into
[0:06] Speaker 1: week one. The schedule is set. We know which games
[0:09] Speaker 1: we want to highlight. Here's everything that you need to
[0:11] Speaker 1: know for every single team.
[0:12] Speaker 2: How you doing? Week one is here, which means so
[0:18] Speaker 2: is NFL Pro. I'm good, bro. I'm happy, bro.
[0:21] Speaker 3: I'm lit, bro.
[0:22] Speaker 2: Let's lock in. Let's reset. Take a deep breath. Let's go, bro.
[0:29] Speaker 1: I'm Trevor Sykema, that is Brett Coleman, and we're going
[0:32] Speaker 1: to run through every single game that we've got here
[0:34] Speaker 1: in week one, but we're going to spend a little
[0:36] Speaker 1: bit of extra dedicated time on some of them to
[0:39] Speaker 1: break them down at a much deeper level. Brett, before
[0:42] Speaker 1: we get into all of that, I've got a question
[0:44] Speaker 1: for you. I was talking with Andrew Siciliano a couple
[0:46] Speaker 1: of days ago, and I want to know the answer.
[0:48] Speaker 2: Which one's a bigger liar? The preseason? Or week one?
[0:52] Speaker 1: You actually tell me which one lies to you more
[0:55] Speaker 1: every single NFL season.
[0:56] Speaker 3: I honestly think it's week one. Like, just crazy stuff
[1:00] Speaker 3: always happens week one.
[1:02] Speaker 2: I know.
[1:02] Speaker 3: Some of these games, by the way, like, we're going
[1:04] Speaker 3: to pick all these games, obviously, and, you know, there's, like,
[1:06] Speaker 3: win probabilities represented by percentages. We're going to get into that.
[1:11] Speaker 3: There were some I was looking at, I was like,
[1:12] Speaker 3: are you sure?
[1:13] Speaker 1: Right.
[1:14] Speaker 3: And maybe that's me just, like, kind of drinking the
[1:16] Speaker 3: Kool-Aid on some of these underdogs here, but... I think
[1:19] Speaker 3: week one is so notorious for having weird stuff happen
[1:22] Speaker 3: that even the percentages just don't, I don't trust it.
[1:26] Speaker 3: I'll say that I've been traumatized too many times by
[1:29] Speaker 3: week ones in the past.
[1:30] Speaker 2: Dude, I'm the same.
[1:31] Speaker 1: And I'm kind of leaning into that a little bit.
[1:33] Speaker 1: We're going to get into not just picking the games,
[1:35] Speaker 1: but how much confidence we have in every single game
[1:37] Speaker 1: that we're picking. And all I'll say is I got
[1:40] Speaker 1: some confidence in some teams that you might not expect.
[1:44] Speaker 1: So we're going to get to that a little bit
[1:45] Speaker 1: later in the show, but I want to start things
[1:47] Speaker 1: out with a heavy hitter. I want to talk about
[1:50] Speaker 1: Bills Texans because this is a premier matchup, right? These
[1:53] Speaker 1: are playoff teams. The Bills have been so close to
[1:57] Speaker 1: getting over the hump, winning an AFC championship, potentially winning
[2:00] Speaker 1: a Super Bowl for the last couple of years.
[2:01] Speaker 2: What an opportunity. Have some fun. Play for each other.
[2:05] Speaker 2: Find a way to get it done.
[2:06] Speaker 1: When teams are so evenly matched, when they are so good,
[2:11] Speaker 1: I think you've got to peel things back a little
[2:13] Speaker 1: bit to actually find the X factors of what's going
[2:16] Speaker 1: on here. So Brett, I'll let you set the table
[2:19] Speaker 1: here for this first matchup. Bills, Texans, where do you
[2:22] Speaker 1: think sort of the X factor is and where do
[2:24] Speaker 1: you want to start this conversation?
[2:25] Speaker 2: They brought in Dave Montgomery for a reason. I'll say that.
[2:28] Speaker 3: This was a run game that was absolutely awful on
[2:32] Speaker 3: early downs last year, and they just kept trying it
[2:35] Speaker 3: over and over and over again. They called run plays
[2:38] Speaker 3: on 54.4% of their first downs. The NFL average was
[2:39] Speaker 3: about 50%. Doesn't seem like a big difference. It absolutely
[2:44] Speaker 3: is a big difference.
[2:45] Speaker 2: Hashtag establishing.
[2:47] Speaker 3: Oh yeah, they established the run all right. 28.4% first
[2:52] Speaker 3: down rushing success rate, which.
[2:54] Speaker 2: Was a league low.
[2:55] Speaker 3: How's that for establishing it? They were just terrible at it.
[2:59] Speaker 3: They led the league in second and long as a result.
[3:01] Speaker 3: And the issue with that is if you're looking at
[3:04] Speaker 3: CJ Stroud's strengths as a quarterback, He really thrives when
[3:08] Speaker 3: he's under center. And their under center rate dropped like
[3:10] Speaker 3: a rock when they were in second and long because,
[3:12] Speaker 3: of course, it did, right? You're going to be a
[3:14] Speaker 3: pass-heavy team typically in second and long, which means you're
[3:17] Speaker 3: going to be in gun a lot more. And if
[3:19] Speaker 3: you're looking at CJ's splits of under center versus shotgun,
[3:23] Speaker 3: went from 8.6 yards per attempt under center down to
[3:26] Speaker 3: 6.9 in gun. He damn near tripled his EPA per
[3:30] Speaker 3: drop back under center versus gun.
[3:32] Speaker 2: Staff fires down the field incomplete.
[3:36] Speaker 3: He really thrives in terms of the rhythm and the
[3:40] Speaker 3: structure of under center. He thrives in that. He loves
[3:44] Speaker 3: hard play action fakes. He actually is better at turning
[3:47] Speaker 3: his back to the defense and then whipping his eyes
[3:50] Speaker 3: back around, locating space, attacking space. He's more comfortable doing
[3:54] Speaker 3: that than he is just being in gun, which is
[3:57] Speaker 3: not common for a young quarterback.
[3:58] Speaker 2: Fakes the handoff, backs up deeper, now unloads.
[4:01] Speaker 1: Jalen Knoll inside the five.
[4:03] Speaker 3: He's in the end zone. And so when you have
[4:06] Speaker 3: that bad of a first down run game, and you're
[4:08] Speaker 3: always in second and long, and you're always in gun, yeah,
[4:11] Speaker 3: they were going to be a worse offense overall. So
[4:14] Speaker 3: I look at what the Texans have done this offseason
[4:16] Speaker 3: to rebuild their offensive line and bringing in David Montgomery,
[4:19] Speaker 3: who's just better at getting yards after contact.
[4:21] Speaker 2: Right.
[4:22] Speaker 3: I have to imagine, you know, if they're even an
[4:24] Speaker 3: average first down run game, the cascading effect on the
[4:28] Speaker 3: rest of the Texans offense could make them pretty potent.
[4:31] Speaker 1: There's a couple of teams that I think went with
[4:33] Speaker 1: that approach this offseason. Like you mentioned the Texans obviously
[4:36] Speaker 1: getting David Montgomery. Like I think of Tyler Algier going
[4:39] Speaker 1: to the Cardinals is another one. Obviously they're hoping that
[4:41] Speaker 1: Jeremiah Love is sort of their dynamic back, but Tyler Algier,
[4:44] Speaker 1: like he can get you three, four or five carries, right?
[4:47] Speaker 1: And sometimes just something that's on schedule and expected can
[4:51] Speaker 1: be enough or even maybe the word better is what
[4:54] Speaker 1: I'm looking for. And so I think that that point
[4:56] Speaker 1: with the Texans and being better in the run game,
[4:59] Speaker 1: that's job number one for them. We know their defense
[5:02] Speaker 1: is going to be elite, but you have to be
[5:03] Speaker 1: more on schedule as a rushing attack to be able
[5:07] Speaker 1: to compliment the passing game a little bit more. On
[5:09] Speaker 1: the other side of things, I want to talk about
[5:11] Speaker 1: how the Bills are sort of going to defend the
[5:14] Speaker 1: run here because I'm excited, but I'm a little nervous
[5:18] Speaker 1: right off the bat here. Now that Jim Leonard is
[5:20] Speaker 1: their defensive coordinator, I'm excited because Jim Leonard's an attacking
[5:24] Speaker 1: style defense, right? And those are always pretty fun. Like
[5:26] Speaker 1: he's going to throw a lot of things at the
[5:29] Speaker 1: offensive line. He's going to throw a lot of things
[5:30] Speaker 1: at CJ Stroud, but when it comes to overall run defense,
[5:34] Speaker 1: I have my worries about how this roster is currently
[5:37] Speaker 1: constructed because Sean McDermott was one of the longest tenured
[5:40] Speaker 1: coaches that we had in the NFL before he got fired.
[5:43] Speaker 1: It's been years of them stockpiling players, not just starters,
[5:48] Speaker 1: but also depth players for that even front zone heavy defense.
[5:54] Speaker 1: And the odd front attacking style defense that Leonard wants
[5:58] Speaker 1: to run is Again, I'm excited to see it, but
[6:01] Speaker 1: I'm a little nervous about how it's going to be
[6:03] Speaker 1: right out of the gate. You've got players like TJ
[6:05] Speaker 1: Sanders and Ed Oliver who are going to have to
[6:07] Speaker 1: play that four-eye or even sometimes two-eye defensive interior type
[6:14] Speaker 1: of alignment. I'm not sure that like that's their best
[6:17] Speaker 1: role like Dwayne Carter kind of behind him again like
[6:19] Speaker 1: I'm worried that these are all kind of three technique
[6:23] Speaker 1: defensive tackles that you're putting in these different alignments you're
[6:25] Speaker 1: asking Dion Walker to he's gonna have to play nose
[6:28] Speaker 1: at times and he's a big massive defensive lineman but
[6:31] Speaker 1: When you're big, I think there's pros and cons to
[6:33] Speaker 1: playing nose tackle.
[6:34] Speaker 2: The cons is that.
[6:35] Speaker 1: Especially when you're tall, too. Yeah, that's the problem. He's
[6:38] Speaker 1: so tall and he's going to lose leverage. Now, they
[6:41] Speaker 1: signed Greg Gaines, and Greg Gaines can be that nose
[6:44] Speaker 1: tackle for you. But even in Tampa last year, he
[6:46] Speaker 1: had good plays, but he also had some bad plays
[6:49] Speaker 1: as well. So I'm worried about this Bills defensive line
[6:53] Speaker 1: that allowed five yards per carry to running backs last season,
[6:57] Speaker 1: which was the third most.
[6:58] Speaker 2: in the NFL.
[6:59] Speaker 1: They actually hit ball carriers at the line of scrimmage 47.8%
[7:01] Speaker 1: of the time, which is fourth best in the NFL,
[7:05] Speaker 1: but allowed almost four yards per contact after that.
[7:09] Speaker 3: Still running hard, dragging tacklers down inside the 10.
[7:13] Speaker 1: Like I think Sanders is an attacking defensive lineman. I
[7:15] Speaker 1: think Oliver is an attacking defensive lineman. Dwayne Carter, these
[7:18] Speaker 1: guys that I mentioned. But when it comes to those
[7:20] Speaker 1: early downs, really defending the run, I get a little
[7:24] Speaker 1: bit worried here with Buffalo. And where the Josh Allen
[7:29] Speaker 1: versus Texans defense side of the matchup is where a
[7:32] Speaker 1: lot of our eyeballs are going to go, I think
[7:35] Speaker 1: each side of the ball is going to get theirs
[7:36] Speaker 1: a little bit. That's going to be the heavyweight fight
[7:39] Speaker 1: that a lot of people are paying attention to, but
[7:41] Speaker 1: it might be who has the higher floor against their weakness,
[7:45] Speaker 1: the Texans run game versus the Bills run defense, that
[7:48] Speaker 1: I think could actually maybe be the differentiating factor here.
[7:52] Speaker 3: So the stat that you mentioned, right, they were fourth
[7:55] Speaker 3: best in terms of making contact with the running back
[7:59] Speaker 3: at the line of scrimmage but still allowing so many
[8:01] Speaker 3: yards after contact that they gave up a lot on
[8:04] Speaker 3: the ground one of the interesting oddities of the bills
[8:08] Speaker 3: last season was that even though they allowed so many
[8:12] Speaker 3: yards on the ground they still dominated in time of
[8:14] Speaker 3: possession and they still had a bunch of games where
[8:16] Speaker 3: they gave up like a buck 70 plus and still
[8:19] Speaker 3: won time of possession and still won those games i
[8:21] Speaker 3: think they went like six and two somewhere around there
[8:23] Speaker 3: i have to go dig for the actual numbers But
[8:26] Speaker 3: it was kind of this weird trend where they gave
[8:28] Speaker 3: up so many explosive runs that it essentially affected them
[8:31] Speaker 3: as if they gave up an explosive pass. And so
[8:34] Speaker 3: they were able to get back on the field and
[8:35] Speaker 3: let Josh Allen do his thing, and it didn't really
[8:37] Speaker 3: hurt them because they could just go back to grinding clock.
[8:40] Speaker 3: And so, yeah, they gave up a lot of run yards,
[8:42] Speaker 3: but it didn't really hurt them in the macro sense.
[8:45] Speaker 3: You look at how Houston matches up with them, and
[8:47] Speaker 3: I don't necessarily think they're going to be ripping off
[8:49] Speaker 3: explosive runs like, say, Bijon did in that game last year.
[8:54] Speaker 3: I think it's going to be a lot of four, five, six,
[8:57] Speaker 3: seven yards.
[8:58] Speaker 2: At a time.
[8:59] Speaker 3: And if you can take away that time of possession
[9:02] Speaker 3: advantage that Buffalo's really leaned on, now they don't really
[9:05] Speaker 3: have anything left. And so that's what I kind of
[9:09] Speaker 3: worry about for them. You know, it's not about, can
[9:11] Speaker 3: they stop the run?
[9:11] Speaker 2: It's can they stop the six yard runs?
[9:14] Speaker 3: Like if they give up 30, it's okay. Just Josh
[9:17] Speaker 3: gets back on the field quicker. If they give up
[9:19] Speaker 3: six and then five and then six again, over and
[9:22] Speaker 3: over and over, And you limit this to like nine
[9:25] Speaker 3: possessions per team, make it like a Panthers game. I
[9:29] Speaker 3: don't like that for Buffalo, especially with the Texans defense.
[9:32] Speaker 1: Yeah, a couple of things here to wrap this up
[9:34] Speaker 1: before we go to the next game. Will Anderson specifically.
[9:36] Speaker 1: We got a specific matchup here from NGS. He recorded
[9:39] Speaker 1: two and a half sacks in week 12 in 2025
[9:41] Speaker 1: versus the Bills. Five of his eight pressures and one
[9:45] Speaker 1: of those sacks came against right tackle Spencer Brown.
[9:48] Speaker 2: So obviously he played well against Spencer Brown.
[9:50] Speaker 1: Generated 41.7% quarterback pressure against Spencer Brown on 12 pass
[9:56] Speaker 1: rush reps. So I think that matchup, that's going to
[9:58] Speaker 1: be one to watch there. and then the Bills haven't
[10:01] Speaker 1: beaten D'Amico Ryans in Houston since he became the head
[10:05] Speaker 1: coach there so can we get a Bills victory in Houston.
[10:09] Speaker 3: You've got to get the ball out if you do
[10:11] Speaker 3: not you are a dead duck against this defense.
[10:14] Speaker 1: The next game we're going to touch on is the
[10:16] Speaker 1: Packers and the Vikings and we're going to be talking
[10:18] Speaker 1: about the NFC North all year long. This is going
[10:20] Speaker 1: to be the most cutthroat division in football. This is
[10:22] Speaker 1: going to be a pretty meaty game preview here. We're
[10:25] Speaker 1: going to get pretty granular with this in one of
[10:27] Speaker 1: why we think the result is going to be what
[10:30] Speaker 1: we envision it's going to be. So Brett, I'll let
[10:32] Speaker 1: you start again here with this one. What are you
[10:34] Speaker 1: focusing on with this game?
[10:35] Speaker 3: It's a defensive identity shift in Green Bay. And they
[10:38] Speaker 3: kind of have to, because again, Mike is out. He's
[10:40] Speaker 3: not going to be back for a while. And so
[10:42] Speaker 3: it's really going to be on Jonathan Gannon to figure
[10:44] Speaker 3: out how can I make you know, something out of nothing,
[10:47] Speaker 3: so to speak.
[10:48] Speaker 2: Not that they're like completely bereft of talent. We love McKinney.
[10:50] Speaker 2: We love Edge.
[10:51] Speaker 3: But Micah not being there means you have to get creative.
[10:55] Speaker 3: And if you're looking at the style that Gannon has
[10:58] Speaker 3: typically employed, you know, he really does love quarters. It's
[11:02] Speaker 3: a really, really important coverage. And the Packers are going
[11:04] Speaker 3: to be running it a lot this year. They didn't
[11:07] Speaker 3: necessarily run it a lot last year under Jeff Halfley.
[11:10] Speaker 3: Halfley really liked a lot more cover three and cover two.
[11:12] Speaker 3: If you're looking at just percentage of quarters usage, they
[11:16] Speaker 3: were only about 14.4% of their snaps using quarters.
[11:20] Speaker 2: That's not very high. That's 10th lowest in the league.
[11:23] Speaker 3: You compare that to Jonathan Gannon, who has been top
[11:26] Speaker 3: five in quarters usage rate in three of the last
[11:30] Speaker 3: five seasons in which he's been either a DC or
[11:32] Speaker 3: a head coach. And it makes sense why their quarters
[11:35] Speaker 3: usage rate went up to 35% this preseason. That's damn
[11:39] Speaker 3: near a 20% jump, right? So I expect a lot
[11:44] Speaker 3: of quarters in this game, especially because they're going to
[11:46] Speaker 3: try to limit explosives. But remember, just because it's a
[11:50] Speaker 3: coverage that in general is good against explosives doesn't mean
[11:53] Speaker 3: there aren't certain concepts that are kind of designed to
[11:57] Speaker 3: get explosive plays against this type of defensive structure.
[12:01] Speaker 1: I think that a villain arc that Jonathan Gannon could
[12:05] Speaker 1: have here is... You know how Two-Face, the Batman villain,
[12:09] Speaker 1: just flips a coin everywhere, right? I mean, if he's
[12:12] Speaker 1: got a really good squad where quarters are going really well,
[12:15] Speaker 1: he can just sit on the field and just flip
[12:17] Speaker 1: the quarter.
[12:17] Speaker 2: Just flicking it, just staring across. Just staring at the
[12:20] Speaker 2: other team's offense coordinator. You know we're running. You know
[12:24] Speaker 2: we're running.
[12:26] Speaker 1: But I also think that because of the way that
[12:29] Speaker 1: this is set up, with Gannon running as much quarters
[12:32] Speaker 1: as he does.
[12:33] Speaker 2: It might be a.
[12:34] Speaker 1: Successful day for the Minnesota Vikings, but not a big
[12:38] Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson day. And that might sound crazy to some
[12:42] Speaker 1: people when they think, okay, well, hold on. If it's
[12:43] Speaker 1: going to be a great Vikings day through the air
[12:46] Speaker 1: and in the passing game, Justin Jefferson's got to be
[12:48] Speaker 1: going off. Well, not necessarily because they're probably going to
[12:52] Speaker 1: want Justin Jefferson to be on the line of scrimmage
[12:55] Speaker 1: in the slot because it's going to be these mills
[12:58] Speaker 1: and dagger concepts. They're going to be able to create
[13:00] Speaker 1: a lot of space there. And I think that if
[13:03] Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson is aligned in that spot, he's often going
[13:07] Speaker 1: to be actually the decoy for these routes and for
[13:11] Speaker 1: these concepts. The numbers kind of back that up as well.
[13:13] Speaker 1: Jefferson hasn't caught a pass on the ball in the
[13:18] Speaker 1: slot versus quarters since 2023.
[13:23] Speaker 2: On a Tuesday in the fall. Don't tempt us. We've
[13:27] Speaker 2: got that data.
[13:29] Speaker 1: But when they are attacking quarters, they're using Jefferson as
[13:33] Speaker 1: the bait. They're using him as the disguise. If you
[13:36] Speaker 1: are on the ball in the slot against quarters, you're
[13:39] Speaker 1: taking off. You are going to be somebody who is
[13:41] Speaker 1: going to get deep down the field. Jefferson's doing nothing
[13:44] Speaker 1: against quarters, but it's not that he's doing nothing when
[13:46] Speaker 1: he's on the ball in the slot. Jefferson recorded an
[13:49] Speaker 1: 8.3 explosive play per route rate.
[13:52] Speaker 2: When on the ball in the slot.
[13:53] Speaker 1: That was ninth highest among wide receivers. So he gets
[13:57] Speaker 1: usage when he's on the ball in the slot, just
[13:59] Speaker 1: not against quarters. So for that, let's bring in these
[14:02] Speaker 1: two concepts, Mills and Dagger. All right, I first want
[14:05] Speaker 1: to take a look at this Dagger concept here, all right?
[14:07] Speaker 1: What we're looking at is it's not true quarters coverage here,
[14:09] Speaker 1: but this is quarter, quarter, half. So we're going to
[14:11] Speaker 1: be attacking the quarters side of the field.
[14:14] Speaker 2: With these two receivers.
[14:15] Speaker 1: Now, the dagger concept is going to involve the inside
[14:18] Speaker 1: player taking a vertical route here to clear out this defender,
[14:21] Speaker 1: and then having a deep dig route underneath to open
[14:25] Speaker 1: up this as the throwing window. That is the idea
[14:28] Speaker 1: here with this concept. This player right here, it's not
[14:30] Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson, but I think that it can be Justin
[14:32] Speaker 1: Jefferson because if he were on the line of scrimmage,
[14:34] Speaker 1: that tells you that this guy's getting vertical. And when
[14:36] Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson's getting vertical, this guy's got to pay attention.
[14:39] Speaker 1: This guy's got to pay attention. Heck, maybe even this
[14:41] Speaker 1: guy's got to pay attention because it's Justin Jefferson. So
[14:44] Speaker 1: when you get all those eyeballs, you're really going to
[14:46] Speaker 1: be able to open up things over the middle. And
[14:48] Speaker 1: that's exactly what happens here. You have the clear out route.
[14:50] Speaker 1: It takes that inside safety defender all the way up
[14:53] Speaker 1: the field and boom, there's the throwing window wide open
[14:56] Speaker 1: right over the middle of the field. And it ends
[14:58] Speaker 1: up going So that's the dagger concept where I think
[15:01] Speaker 1: that Jefferson can be utilized as that vertical player that's
[15:05] Speaker 1: clearing things out. This is a Mills concept. So we're
[15:09] Speaker 1: going up against cover two here. So again, it's not
[15:11] Speaker 1: quite quarters, but the idea is the same. What we
[15:14] Speaker 1: have here is it's a dig route that's going over
[15:16] Speaker 1: the middle, and then we're combining that with a post route.
[15:19] Speaker 2: Over top of it.
[15:20] Speaker 1: Now, the idea here is that we're opening up the
[15:22] Speaker 1: deep route, not the dig route over the middle of
[15:25] Speaker 1: the field. That becomes a distraction route. So I can
[15:27] Speaker 1: see Justin Jefferson's the one who's actually running the post
[15:30] Speaker 1: here on this play. This is Justin Jefferson, but I
[15:32] Speaker 1: could see him being that player that's going over the
[15:34] Speaker 1: middle of the field because once again, If this is
[15:37] Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson right here as the decoy or distraction player.
[15:41] Speaker 2: This guy's got to pay attention. This guy's got to
[15:43] Speaker 2: pay attention.
[15:43] Speaker 1: This guy, this guy, everybody's focusing in on Justin Jefferson
[15:47] Speaker 1: coming over the middle of the field right there. So
[15:49] Speaker 1: in quarters, this guy would get more aggressive here. This
[15:52] Speaker 1: player would be looking to pick him up as he's
[15:54] Speaker 1: crossing the field, and that would open things up here
[15:56] Speaker 1: for the post route. Now, Jefferson runs this extremely well,
[16:00] Speaker 1: and it opens wide open for him against cover two.
[16:04] Speaker 1: Against quarters, it'd be a little bit tighter of a throw,
[16:07] Speaker 1: but as you guys can see, this is the space
[16:09] Speaker 1: here that opens up with that route concept because this
[16:13] Speaker 1: player was too distracted by this guy who's coming over
[16:15] Speaker 1: the middle of the field, and it opened things up
[16:17] Speaker 1: for Jefferson to be able to run that post route
[16:20] Speaker 1: to find that open space.
[16:21] Speaker 2: So those are the two concepts.
[16:23] Speaker 1: That I think can really work against cover four and
[16:26] Speaker 1: against what Jonathan Gannon wants to do. It's just a
[16:28] Speaker 1: matter of where Justin Jefferson is. I think he could
[16:30] Speaker 1: be an excellent decoy player, and it might be a
[16:33] Speaker 1: big day for the Vikings and for some other receiver,
[16:36] Speaker 1: but they'll take that and Jefferson's going to take that
[16:38] Speaker 1: all day if it means that they're getting a win.
[16:41] Speaker 1: So when Jefferson is a part of those concepts and
[16:43] Speaker 1: when he is the player who is lined up in
[16:46] Speaker 1: the slot on the ball, the explosive play percentage with
[16:50] Speaker 1: the Vikings having Jefferson at that alignment is is 15.7%.
[16:55] Speaker 1: All other alignments, 13.1%. So clearly, using Jefferson in that.
[17:00] Speaker 2: Role, even if it's just a decoy, it works. It
[17:02] Speaker 2: does not have to just go to him.
[17:04] Speaker 1: Vikings gain nearly a full yard more, 0.9%, with Jefferson
[17:09] Speaker 1: on the ball in the slot. So there are so
[17:11] Speaker 1: many numbers that point to when he is in that alignment,
[17:15] Speaker 1: he is the player who the defense has to respect
[17:17] Speaker 1: because he's getting vertical and you have to pay attention
[17:19] Speaker 1: to Jefferson when he's getting vertical. but it opens things
[17:22] Speaker 1: up underneath and in different areas of the field against
[17:25] Speaker 1: that specific coverage that Jonathan Gannon loves to run.
[17:28] Speaker 3: And, you know, going back to that Micah injury, again,
[17:31] Speaker 3: I know Packers fans are tired of hearing about how
[17:33] Speaker 3: much it affects them, but it really does. You know,
[17:36] Speaker 3: the Packers were kind of guilty of using the rush
[17:39] Speaker 3: as the coverage last year, right? Like they were able
[17:41] Speaker 3: to kind of get away with not being awesome at
[17:45] Speaker 3: corner because Micah was able to generate so much pressure
[17:48] Speaker 3: and their defense really didn't. really kind of fell off
[17:51] Speaker 3: a cliff when he was not on the field. So
[17:53] Speaker 3: if you're just looking at the splits of Parsons on
[17:56] Speaker 3: the field versus Parsons off the field, time to throw
[17:59] Speaker 3: was obviously faster when he was on the field because
[18:02] Speaker 3: it had to be. Their blitz rate went down by
[18:05] Speaker 3: about 8%. Again, doesn't sound like a lot. That is
[18:08] Speaker 3: a chasm in the NFL. Their pressure percentage went up.
[18:12] Speaker 3: Their time to pressure fell by almost, not even almost,
[18:15] Speaker 3: more than two-tenths of a second. And success percentage allowed
[18:19] Speaker 3: went down roughly 7% to 8% as well. He is
[18:23] Speaker 3: so monumentally important to them, and they got away with
[18:26] Speaker 3: so much on the back end just because Micah existed.
[18:29] Speaker 3: Without him on the field, I'm not sure they have
[18:32] Speaker 3: a great answer for getting to Kyler Murray before Kyler
[18:36] Speaker 3: Murray can.
[18:37] Speaker 2: Unload deep down the field against these quarters looks.
[18:39] Speaker 1: Parsons is a change-the-math type of a player. those are
[18:42] Speaker 1: the most valuable players that we have in the game.
[18:44] Speaker 1: You know, whether you're taking up an extra gap, whether
[18:46] Speaker 1: you're forcing an extra player to stay in and block,
[18:48] Speaker 1: like whatever that looks, whether you're taking multiple eyes in coverage,
[18:52] Speaker 1: change the math type of players are the ones that
[18:54] Speaker 1: are the most valuable and most impactful. And I know
[18:56] Speaker 1: on the other side of things, I know you want
[18:58] Speaker 1: to talk about Brian Flores because he's, he's a.
[19:00] Speaker 2: Math guy himself. The math scientist.
[19:02] Speaker 1: Yeah.
[19:02] Speaker 2: A lot of times the math is, uh, uh, Oh,
[19:05] Speaker 2: I have 11 players. That's 11 players that I can
[19:07] Speaker 2: blitz at any point in time. The math is you
[19:09] Speaker 2: were the Vikings.
[19:10] Speaker 3: Oh, I love watching this team play, man. And I
[19:17] Speaker 3: need people to understand not just the numbers, but also
[19:20] Speaker 3: how this works and why it works. Because you'd think
[19:23] Speaker 3: teams would just have their typical blitz answers against Minnesota
[19:26] Speaker 3: and they wouldn't be able to do this.
[19:27] Speaker 2: But just the.
[19:28] Speaker 3: Way they call these blitzes is so hilarious and it's
[19:31] Speaker 3: so effective, even after years of doing it. They had
[19:35] Speaker 3: a 37% blitz rate out of too high. The NFL
[19:38] Speaker 3: average is 12%. They're the only team above 24%. Like
[19:43] Speaker 3: they're just not like anybody else at all. So here
[19:47] Speaker 3: is how these blitzes work. This is a, pick that
[19:50] Speaker 3: they got against the Chargers last year. Remember, Justin Herbert,
[19:54] Speaker 3: great quarterback. Hard to fool him. Hard to really force
[19:58] Speaker 3: him into mistakes sometimes. But that's what Brian Flores does.
[20:02] Speaker 3: So they start off with what's called kind of a
[20:04] Speaker 3: dirty bunch here to the field. So it's three guys
[20:07] Speaker 3: relatively close to each other. And the Vikings are in
[20:10] Speaker 3: a quarters look. That means this corner here, he's responsible
[20:13] Speaker 3: for what's called the vertical of number one. So if
[20:15] Speaker 3: number one here, we're counting outside in one, two, three.
[20:19] Speaker 3: If the vertical of number one goes deep, the corner's
[20:22] Speaker 3: taking that. The safety is responsible for the vertical of
[20:26] Speaker 3: number two. So if the number two runs deep, that's
[20:29] Speaker 3: his guy. You got Harrison Smith here. He's responsible for
[20:32] Speaker 3: the vertical of number three. How is that possible? He's
[20:35] Speaker 3: on the other side of the field. Well, we call
[20:36] Speaker 3: this a poach technique. The Fangio world likes to call
[20:39] Speaker 3: it a tricks T R I X. So you got one, two, three,
[20:43] Speaker 3: all accounted for. And then this corner backside is going
[20:46] Speaker 3: to be manned up. Not all zone coverages means everybody's
[20:50] Speaker 3: in zone. Sometimes you have one guy who's in man
[20:52] Speaker 3: while everybody else is in zone. We call it match
[20:55] Speaker 3: zone principles. So that's what this look is like pre-snap
[20:59] Speaker 3: the actual pressure here, right? We have three guys in,
[21:02] Speaker 3: kind of doing a contain rush.
[21:03] Speaker 2: To the field.
[21:04] Speaker 3: They're picked up by five blockers here. So it's three
[21:07] Speaker 3: on five. They were really worried about getting overloaded to
[21:09] Speaker 3: the field. You have this linebacker. His only job is
[21:13] Speaker 3: to pick the inside hip of this tackle in order
[21:16] Speaker 3: to free up the edge to loop around inside. Ideally
[21:19] Speaker 3: he gets unblocked, but you know, worst case scenario, you
[21:22] Speaker 3: get an edge matched up with a running back. That's
[21:24] Speaker 3: a winnable matchup. So that's the entire goal here. We
[21:27] Speaker 3: have three guys drawing attention. We have the pick on
[21:29] Speaker 3: the tackle to free up the one-on-one and, and really
[21:32] Speaker 3: make it a one on a running back.
[21:34] Speaker 2: That's the pressure. That's the coverage.
[21:37] Speaker 3: This motion here, we're going to talk about the changes
[21:40] Speaker 3: in quarters rules here in response to motion. As this
[21:44] Speaker 3: ball is snapped, we get a late change of who's
[21:47] Speaker 3: the number one and who's the number two. So the
[21:49] Speaker 3: rules still apply, right? The corner up top, he's carrying
[21:52] Speaker 3: vertical number one.
[21:54] Speaker 2: The safety up.
[21:55] Speaker 3: Top, his number two is pass blocking. So he's now
[21:58] Speaker 3: free to roam and just go find work. Harrison Smith
[22:01] Speaker 3: in the corner down bottom. Number one and number two switch.
[22:04] Speaker 3: So the final number two, he's picking that up vertical.
[22:07] Speaker 3: And the final number one, the corner's picking that up vertical.
[22:10] Speaker 3: We do get pressure on Herbert. He's now panicking. The
[22:14] Speaker 3: key here are the hook droppers. We have two hook
[22:17] Speaker 3: droppers in a quarter spire zone. That means two guys
[22:20] Speaker 3: are responsible for basically the entire field 10 yards and under.
[22:24] Speaker 3: That's the weakness to this coverage is you're going to
[22:26] Speaker 3: have a lot of space over the middle and underneath.
[22:30] Speaker 3: You need really rangy linebackers to pull it off. Now,
[22:33] Speaker 3: because they do get pressure, remember the pressure oftentimes is
[22:36] Speaker 3: the coverage in this defense. Herbert's kind of scrambling around.
[22:39] Speaker 3: He's trying to find something. Desperation heave gets picked by
[22:43] Speaker 3: one of those hook droppers. That is the general basis
[22:47] Speaker 3: of this coverage is we're going to force quarterbacks into mistakes.
[22:51] Speaker 3: Even when we do have wide open windows on the field,
[22:54] Speaker 3: we're trusting that we can get to you before you
[22:56] Speaker 3: can beat us. We're going to stop deep pass attempts
[22:59] Speaker 3: by really just eliminating your ability to stay in the
[23:02] Speaker 3: pocket long enough to throw them. And if you can
[23:05] Speaker 3: beat us over the middle quickly, great. Tip of the cap,
[23:09] Speaker 3: we'll make you do that 12 times in a row
[23:11] Speaker 3: to march down the field and score. Really, the only
[23:14] Speaker 3: offense that I've seen do that to Minnesota repeatedly is
[23:18] Speaker 3: one coordinated by Ben Johnson. who really likes to lean
[23:20] Speaker 3: into that. He's going to go under center. He's going
[23:22] Speaker 3: to do hard play action fakes. He's going to put
[23:24] Speaker 3: even more stress on those linebackers because not only do
[23:27] Speaker 3: they have all that space to cover underneath, now they
[23:29] Speaker 3: have to step up and play the run and get
[23:31] Speaker 3: back to their landmarks. It's a lot easier said than done.
[23:34] Speaker 3: Most teams are not disciplined enough to do that for
[23:37] Speaker 3: a 10 play drive when they're getting blitzed on half
[23:40] Speaker 3: of those dropbacks. And that's what makes this defense so fun.
[23:43] Speaker 3: And it's also why they're basically the only team that
[23:46] Speaker 3: plays defense this way.
[23:48] Speaker 1: You know, listening to you talk there and just the
[23:49] Speaker 1: more that I've watched Brian Flores over the years, the
[23:52] Speaker 1: most important player on the field when it comes to
[23:55] Speaker 1: facing a Brian Flores defense is probably the guy who's
[23:57] Speaker 1: calling protections. Like it's either the center, if that's the
[24:00] Speaker 1: center's job, or if it's the quarterback's job, they have
[24:04] Speaker 1: to be on their P's and Q's. They have to
[24:07] Speaker 1: be so detailed in where they think the pressure is
[24:10] Speaker 1: going to come from, how the offensive line or any
[24:12] Speaker 1: of the blockers are going to sort of rotate, how
[24:14] Speaker 1: they're going to handle it, because you're right. That is
[24:17] Speaker 1: how Brian Flores wants to play defense. He wants to
[24:19] Speaker 1: attack you, and if you can't neutralize it up front,
[24:21] Speaker 1: sometimes the rest doesn't matter.
[24:24] Speaker 2: Cowboys and Giants.
[24:25] Speaker 1: Any NFC East matchup is always one that's going to
[24:29] Speaker 1: have a lot of eyeballs on it.
[24:30] Speaker 2: There's always a ton of excitement for.
[24:32] Speaker 1: The Cowboys, but there's a ton of excitement for this
[24:35] Speaker 1: new era for the Giants as well. Brett, I know
[24:38] Speaker 1: people are excited long-term about the Giants. Should they be
[24:42] Speaker 1: week one?
[24:43] Speaker 2: What do we think here with the Giants and Cowboys? I,
[24:47] Speaker 2: I have my reservations, man.
[24:49] Speaker 3: And it's not because I don't like some of the talent, right?
[24:51] Speaker 3: Like I love the Arvel Reese pick, the Carter pick
[24:54] Speaker 3: last year, taking Francis Malinoa top 10, I thought was
[24:57] Speaker 3: very prudent move. Like he could play tackle, but he's
[24:59] Speaker 3: going to be a guard for them. And I think
[25:01] Speaker 3: he's going to pay dividends. There's so much to like
[25:03] Speaker 3: about this team with the coaching staff that was assembled.
[25:06] Speaker 2: It's all of the guys that we have criticized.
[25:09] Speaker 3: Over and over and over again, four years in terms
[25:13] Speaker 3: of not just play calling, but but macro management of
[25:18] Speaker 3: a game. How many times were we just screaming at
[25:22] Speaker 3: the TV watching the Ravens when they were kicking a
[25:24] Speaker 3: field goal when they shouldn't have, or punting when they
[25:26] Speaker 3: shouldn't have, or not giving the ball to Henry when
[25:28] Speaker 3: they should have, not letting Lamar cook when they should have.
[25:32] Speaker 3: How can you have all of those coaches in the
[25:34] Speaker 3: same room and be confident in the product? I kind
[25:38] Speaker 3: of have to see it to believe it at this point.
[25:40] Speaker 2: I'll say that.
[25:40] Speaker 1: You're hoping that it's just a big brain trust, right?
[25:43] Speaker 1: And that a lot of those guys with all of
[25:44] Speaker 1: their NFL experience is going to come to elevate both
[25:48] Speaker 1: sides of that team. One area that has to be
[25:51] Speaker 1: elevated no matter what, bar none, is the Giants defensive line.
[25:55] Speaker 1: Because the season almost goes as the Giants defensive line goes.
[25:58] Speaker 1: Because it's a lot of the same players minus Dexter Lawrence,
[26:01] Speaker 1: which is not really the sentence that you want to say, right?
[26:04] Speaker 1: You never want to go like, oh... The defensive line
[26:06] Speaker 1: needed to be a lot better than it was last year.
[26:08] Speaker 1: They got rid of Dexter Lawrence. That's not an addition
[26:11] Speaker 1: by subtraction. That's quite literally just a subtraction. Might be
[26:14] Speaker 1: a double subtraction. Maybe it's a division.
[26:16] Speaker 2: We're going all the way to that point.
[26:18] Speaker 1: When you look at the Giants last season, allowed 2.0
[26:20] Speaker 1: yards before contact.
[26:22] Speaker 2: That was the most in the NFL.
[26:23] Speaker 1: Allowed 3.3 yards after contact per carry.
[26:26] Speaker 2: That was the fifth most in the NFL.
[26:27] Speaker 1: And allowed 56.6 rush EPA per play.
[26:31] Speaker 2: Most in the NFL. I am also excited.
[26:34] Speaker 1: About the speed that they have at, I'll just call
[26:38] Speaker 1: it outside linebacker, right? Because it could be Abdul Carter,
[26:41] Speaker 1: it could be Arvel Reese, it could be Brian Burns,
[26:43] Speaker 1: it could be Kayvon Thibodeau.
[26:44] Speaker 2: Those guys are awesome.
[26:46] Speaker 1: And I think specifically with Carter and Arvel Reese, you
[26:48] Speaker 1: have a lot of flexibility for those guys to just
[26:51] Speaker 1: be apex predators, be hunters, right? Go hunt the football
[26:55] Speaker 1: wherever it's going to go. You only get to do
[26:58] Speaker 1: that if your interior defensive line can hold up. Because
[27:03] Speaker 1: if your interior defensive line is similar to what it
[27:05] Speaker 1: was the previous season, well guess what? Now Arvel Reist
[27:09] Speaker 1: has to sit at inside linebacker at all times and
[27:12] Speaker 1: he basically can't leave the tackle box. You might have
[27:15] Speaker 1: to do the same thing with Abdul Carter as well.
[27:18] Speaker 1: The linebacker level is going to be a, I think,
[27:21] Speaker 1: telltale sign of how good this defense is. based on
[27:26] Speaker 1: how much freedom those guys have. And you don't get
[27:29] Speaker 1: that freedom unless you eat your vegetables, unless you defend
[27:34] Speaker 1: the run the way that you need to. And I'm
[27:36] Speaker 1: worried about that with the Giants right off the bat,
[27:39] Speaker 1: because it's largely a lot of the same players that
[27:41] Speaker 1: they had last year that's going to be trying.
[27:42] Speaker 2: To do the same thing.
[27:44] Speaker 3: And it's not like the Cowboys can't run the ball, right?
[27:47] Speaker 3: You know, Javante had a kind of a career resurgence
[27:50] Speaker 3: in Dallas last And if you're looking at the types
[27:53] Speaker 3: of runs that they're going to be using, a lot
[27:55] Speaker 3: of it is stuff between the tackles, right? They rush
[27:58] Speaker 3: between the tackles, or rather, Javante Williams rushed between the
[28:00] Speaker 3: tackles 60.7% of the time on his carries last season.
[28:04] Speaker 3: That was ninth highest among all running backs that had
[28:06] Speaker 3: at least 100 carries. So they pound the rock inside
[28:10] Speaker 3: over and over and over again. When rushing inside, Williams
[28:13] Speaker 3: averaged 4.8 yards per carry. That was seventh most among
[28:17] Speaker 3: that same group of running backs. And he totaled 104
[28:20] Speaker 3: rushing yards over expected, which was the sixth most. So
[28:23] Speaker 3: while they didn't have the highest overall run pass rate,
[28:27] Speaker 3: when they did run the ball, it was inside, physical, north-south.
[28:32] Speaker 3: And in particular, also, side note, a lot of it
[28:34] Speaker 3: was from shotgun. Gervonta was a more effective rusher from
[28:38] Speaker 3: the gun than under center, which is not common. But
[28:40] Speaker 3: he was really good at just kind of picking his
[28:42] Speaker 3: way through traffic, seeing who won, who lost up front. not,
[28:46] Speaker 3: not as effective as like prime Le'Veon, but like stylistically
[28:49] Speaker 3: very similar. And when you have that kind of complimentary
[28:52] Speaker 3: threat in the backfield and you're just running between the
[28:54] Speaker 3: tackles over and over and over again at a diminished
[28:59] Speaker 3: DT room, to say the least.
[29:02] Speaker 2: I'm nervous, man.
[29:03] Speaker 3: Like, and then you also have to deal with CD
[29:05] Speaker 3: and Pickens and Dak.
[29:07] Speaker 1: And yeah, we didn't even, we didn't even talk about
[29:08] Speaker 1: the actual strength of this team because as you can
[29:11] Speaker 1: tell on the.
[29:11] Speaker 2: Show, that's the side dish, man.
[29:14] Speaker 1: We're talking, we obviously are going to talk about like
[29:17] Speaker 1: the guys who you want us to talk about from
[29:19] Speaker 1: like the quarterback position and things like that. But like football,
[29:22] Speaker 1: the reason why it's the best game in the world
[29:25] Speaker 1: is just how detailed it is. And like, yes, The
[29:28] Speaker 1: big hitter, your star's got to play well, and we
[29:30] Speaker 1: think the Cowboys' stars are going to play well, but
[29:33] Speaker 1: if Dax cooking and the offensive lines playing at least
[29:36] Speaker 1: decently well, which another interesting matchup of this one, the
[29:40] Speaker 1: Cowboys offensive tackles specifically, you've got Terrence Steele and Tyler Guyton.
[29:46] Speaker 1: I love the interior. Interior is rock solid. It's Tyler Smith,
[29:49] Speaker 1: it's Tyler Booker, it's Cooper Beebe.
[29:50] Speaker 2: Rock solid.
[29:51] Speaker 1: But if you get one of those offensive tackles on
[29:54] Speaker 1: islands too many times, a Kayvon Thibodeau, a Brian Burns,
[29:56] Speaker 1: or Abdul Carter, or Arvel Reese, that might be a
[29:59] Speaker 1: way that you disturb old Dak there in the backfield.
[30:01] Speaker 1: So that could be an X factor for the Giants
[30:04] Speaker 1: in a matchup that we're not exactly highlighting a lot
[30:06] Speaker 1: of X factors for the Giants here. That's, I think,
[30:10] Speaker 1: how you can maybe have a major difference-making part on
[30:12] Speaker 1: this game, but I think it's too much Cowboys. It's
[30:14] Speaker 1: going to be too much Cowboys offense. I think the
[30:16] Speaker 1: defense could be a lot better with Christian Parker. I'm
[30:18] Speaker 1: a big fan of him now being the defense coordinator
[30:20] Speaker 1: in Dallas and specifically what the personnel is going to
[30:24] Speaker 1: allow him to do. And I think that we see
[30:26] Speaker 1: that week one. So, you know, I'm, I'm, I'm thinking
[30:28] Speaker 1: that the Cowboys should be pretty big favorites in this game.
[30:32] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[30:32] Speaker 3: Next gen stats has the Cowboys win probability at 57%,
[30:37] Speaker 3: which seems low. And then you realize that's 57% on
[30:40] Speaker 3: the road.
[30:42] Speaker 1: Yeah.
[30:42] Speaker 3: If this was in Dallas, it, This would be north
[30:45] Speaker 3: of 60%, in my opinion.
[30:47] Speaker 2: And I agree with that, by the way. I do, too.
[30:49] Speaker 2: If we're just trying to just mirror with our hands
[30:50] Speaker 2: behind our back the whole time, we're at their mercy.
[30:52] Speaker 1: You know what I'm saying? He knows where the ball
[30:54] Speaker 1: is going. You got to use your feet, which you
[30:55] Speaker 1: got good feet, but you don't want to have to
[30:56] Speaker 1: use only that. Use your weapons.
[30:59] Speaker 3: Maybe the weirdest game of the weekend, because I don't
[31:03] Speaker 3: necessarily know what to expect.
[31:04] Speaker 2: Bears-Panthers.
[31:06] Speaker 3: A reckoning, again, on that Bears-Panthers trade that produced... both
[31:13] Speaker 3: quarterbacks at their respective destinations, Bryce.
[31:15] Speaker 2: Young and Caleb Williams. That's true.
[31:17] Speaker 3: It's the trade bowl once again. Played at least twice,
[31:20] Speaker 3: I think, since that trade happened. But both teams are
[31:23] Speaker 3: just so different now compared to where they were at
[31:26] Speaker 3: when that trade happened. And both teams just win in
[31:30] Speaker 3: such uniquely odd ways, I guess is the best way
[31:33] Speaker 3: to put it. I don't really know what to expect
[31:36] Speaker 3: with this one.
[31:37] Speaker 1: The heart palpitations continue.
[31:40] Speaker 2: Would you have expected anything else from the Bears?
[31:43] Speaker 1: This is a little bit of a toss up here
[31:44] Speaker 1: for me in terms of who's going to win this
[31:45] Speaker 1: game in week one. But I am going to take
[31:47] Speaker 1: a little bit more of a macro level approach because
[31:50] Speaker 1: I think that this game, whatever the result is, is
[31:54] Speaker 1: going to be a good indicator of what we can
[31:56] Speaker 1: expect from these groups for at least the first half
[31:58] Speaker 1: of the season, maybe the entire season. And that is
[32:00] Speaker 1: when the Panthers defensive line goes up against the Chicago
[32:04] Speaker 1: Bears offensive line. The Bears offensive line was great. Really,
[32:09] Speaker 1: really good last season. Chicago, 31.2 pressure rate allowed last season.
[32:13] Speaker 1: That was top 10 in the NFL. They were really
[32:16] Speaker 1: good when it came to impact run blocking as well.
[32:18] Speaker 1: This is just a really, really good offensive line unit
[32:22] Speaker 1: for the Chicago Bears last year. So this is the
[32:24] Speaker 1: strength of their team. For the Panthers, their defensive line
[32:28] Speaker 1: was a major weakness of their team. 26.6 team pressure
[32:30] Speaker 1: rate in 2025. That was the second lowest defensively.
[32:34] Speaker 2: In the NFL.
[32:35] Speaker 1: They bring in Jalen Phillips, which is great. They needed
[32:38] Speaker 1: to allocate a lot of their free agency money to
[32:40] Speaker 1: this part of their team specifically. So you bring in
[32:43] Speaker 1: Jalen Phillips and you feel pretty good about it because, okay,
[32:45] Speaker 1: it's going to be Jalen Phillips.
[32:46] Speaker 2: It's going to be Nick Scordon.
[32:47] Speaker 1: It's going to be Derek Brown and Prince Yumanmi Allen
[32:49] Speaker 1: and all these guys, but Nick Scordon now out for
[32:52] Speaker 1: the year. He had the most pressures on the team
[32:54] Speaker 1: last year at 32 and And unfortunately, he's not going
[32:57] Speaker 1: to be a part.
[32:58] Speaker 2: Of that anymore.
[32:59] Speaker 1: But is Jalen Phillips sort of enough for them? I
[33:04] Speaker 1: think that's the big question. If we get out of
[33:07] Speaker 1: this game, and it's a lot of the same thing,
[33:10] Speaker 1: Panthers couldn't get after Caleb Williams, they couldn't beat the
[33:13] Speaker 1: Bears offensive line, no pressure generated.
[33:16] Speaker 2: You get a little bit worried.
[33:17] Speaker 1: You get worried that it wasn't going to be enough
[33:19] Speaker 1: for Carolina, or at least that the burn was going
[33:21] Speaker 1: to be slower than you wanted it to for this
[33:23] Speaker 1: team to really turn into a good pass rushing unit.
[33:26] Speaker 1: And then on the flip side, I think the Chicago Bears,
[33:28] Speaker 1: which very much needs their offensive line to be just
[33:31] Speaker 1: as good as it was last year, if not better,
[33:33] Speaker 1: that remains. Touchdown!
[33:35] Speaker 2: Touchdown Bears!
[33:37] Speaker 1: Now, if the result is different, let's say Carolina's defensive
[33:41] Speaker 1: line does look a lot better. A lot of those
[33:44] Speaker 1: young guys did take the next step. Jalen Phillips looks
[33:46] Speaker 1: fantastic for this team. The linebacker level looks even better
[33:49] Speaker 1: now that Devin Lloyd is there. If that looks good
[33:52] Speaker 1: against Chicago's offensive line.
[33:54] Speaker 2: Brand new team then. Now we flip the scripts.
[33:57] Speaker 1: Now we go, okay, this is Euro Evero defense has
[34:00] Speaker 1: more talent than he has over the last three years.
[34:02] Speaker 1: You feel pretty good about it for Carolina moving forward.
[34:05] Speaker 1: And now on that flip side, you have to say,
[34:08] Speaker 1: oh boy, hold on a second here. We had major
[34:11] Speaker 1: question marks about the Chicago Bears defense. We know that
[34:15] Speaker 1: they're going to give up some points and some yards
[34:16] Speaker 1: and some long drives. Now you're telling me their offensive
[34:20] Speaker 1: line might be taking a step back from what it
[34:21] Speaker 1: was last year? That's not a good sign for the
[34:23] Speaker 1: Chicago Bears. So I don't know exactly what the result
[34:26] Speaker 1: is going to be, but I can tell you that
[34:28] Speaker 1: there's going to be a pretty strong narrative one way
[34:30] Speaker 1: or the other for both of these teams and both
[34:32] Speaker 1: of these very passionate fan bases based on whatever the
[34:36] Speaker 1: result's going to be at that matchup.
[34:38] Speaker 3: I think they want to end drives faster because if
[34:40] Speaker 3: you're looking at how they won last year, It was
[34:44] Speaker 3: by limiting total possessions per game. Because remember, this is
[34:47] Speaker 3: a sport where there's a finite number of points that
[34:49] Speaker 3: could be scored per possession. So if there's less possessions
[34:51] Speaker 3: in a game, that means there's less points in a game,
[34:53] Speaker 3: which means each point matters more. And if they could
[34:56] Speaker 3: just get a takeaway, which they were excellent at getting
[34:59] Speaker 3: a takeaway, especially in the third quarter, right? After game
[35:03] Speaker 3: plans are kind of thrown out the window, now we're
[35:05] Speaker 3: just playing football. They were so good at getting pivotal
[35:07] Speaker 3: turnovers in the third quarter, keeping games tight, limiting possessions.
[35:12] Speaker 3: And they did that by just kind of not breaking
[35:15] Speaker 3: on defense. They had the fourth most plays per drive
[35:18] Speaker 3: against them on defense, 6.3. That's a lot of plays
[35:21] Speaker 3: per drive. But they were second fewest in terms of
[35:24] Speaker 3: total drives faced. So again, you're going to get down there.
[35:26] Speaker 3: You're going to score on them. Just not a lot
[35:28] Speaker 3: of points because you don't have a lot of possessions.
[35:32] Speaker 3: And if they can just get one takeaway, they're going
[35:34] Speaker 3: to keep it close enough where they can turn.
[35:36] Speaker 2: That takeaway into a win.
[35:37] Speaker 3: That's how they won the NFC South, honestly. Like their
[35:40] Speaker 3: total metrics, not great. but their win-loss record half decent
[35:45] Speaker 3: because they just needed that one extra play.
[35:49] Speaker 1: It's this style of football that it only takes a
[35:52] Speaker 1: little bit of luck for you to take that a mile.
[35:56] Speaker 1: You know, sometimes, yeah, like you're saying, like if you're
[35:58] Speaker 1: in a shootout, it's going to take a lot of
[36:00] Speaker 1: luck in order for you to really be able to
[36:03] Speaker 1: keep up with other teams that maybe you'd be punching
[36:05] Speaker 1: above your weight class for. But the Panther style of
[36:08] Speaker 1: play is, won them a division, albeit below 500 in
[36:12] Speaker 1: a record, but it's because they were able to let
[36:15] Speaker 1: luck be a big factor when things went their way.
[36:19] Speaker 1: And I just want to say, like, a lot of times, like,
[36:22] Speaker 1: luck is like.
[36:22] Speaker 2: This taboo word in football.
[36:24] Speaker 1: Like, people go like, oh, if you use luck or
[36:27] Speaker 1: if you bring up the word luck, you're trying to
[36:29] Speaker 1: discredit or discount, like, what a team is doing.
[36:33] Speaker 2: Every team in the NFL needs luck. Every Super Bowl
[36:36] Speaker 2: winner has luck. Do they have talent? Sure, but they
[36:38] Speaker 2: also have luck. Whether it's health, whether it's.
[36:40] Speaker 1: The ball bouncing their way, there is something involved because
[36:43] Speaker 1: there is part of this game that no matter how
[36:45] Speaker 1: much you try to control, there's a little.
[36:47] Speaker 2: Bit that always exists that you can't.
[36:49] Speaker 1: And the result of that is either lucky or unlucky.
[36:52] Speaker 1: Luck does not discredit how good your team may be
[36:55] Speaker 1: and how good they execute.
[36:57] Speaker 2: It's just a part of the game. Hey, the bottom
[36:59] Speaker 2: line is we just fight. We don't know how to
[37:01] Speaker 2: do anything else, but just keep fighting. And we always
[37:04] Speaker 2: finish because that's.
[37:05] Speaker 3: Who we are. I mean, you could argue that there
[37:08] Speaker 3: was a dynasty built off of luck in Kansas City.
[37:12] Speaker 3: Not to say that they only won because of luck. Like,
[37:15] Speaker 3: it's okay, Chiefs fans. Like, we can have a grown-up
[37:17] Speaker 3: conversation about this. They were an excellent team. One of
[37:21] Speaker 3: the best teams of the modern era that also happened
[37:25] Speaker 3: to have a couple high leverage moments. that went their way,
[37:29] Speaker 3: they were a little bit lucky, and they were able
[37:31] Speaker 3: to seize on that opportunity over and over and over again. Like,
[37:35] Speaker 3: they were a team, you give them an inch, they'll
[37:36] Speaker 3: take a mile, right? I mean, just a couple years ago,
[37:41] Speaker 3: that was a team that When they got to the
[37:44] Speaker 3: Super Bowl against the Eagles, look, woefully undergunned.
[37:47] Speaker 2: It's intercepted by Zach Borg!
[37:50] Speaker 3: But along the way, in the regular season that year,
[37:52] Speaker 3: had multiple moments of just outright luck. Like, they played
[37:56] Speaker 3: against the Raiders and they dropped the snap. They had
[37:59] Speaker 3: a field goal blocked in Denver that enabled them to
[38:02] Speaker 3: win that game. Like, just stuff happened with the Chiefs
[38:06] Speaker 3: that can only be explained by luck. But it's the
[38:09] Speaker 3: truly great teams that are able to then turn luck into...
[38:12] Speaker 3: into championships because of how good they are.
[38:15] Speaker 2: Let's be great, dawg.
[38:16] Speaker 1: Let's be great.
[38:17] Speaker 2: Let's be us.
[38:18] Speaker 1: Yeah, you got to take advantage of luck, which is
[38:20] Speaker 1: like seizing the opportunity when you get lucky.
[38:23] Speaker 2: That is something that obviously the great teams do.
[38:26] Speaker 1: Yeah.
[38:26] Speaker 3: And some people would argue that's what Denver did last year, right?
[38:31] Speaker 2: Like they were a.
[38:31] Speaker 3: Team that they won a lot of one possession games.
[38:35] Speaker 3: They kind of out chiefs the chiefs in some ways.
[38:39] Speaker 2: And, you know, they.
[38:40] Speaker 3: They unfortunately got really unlucky late in the year with
[38:43] Speaker 3: a quarterback injury that, I don't know about you, I
[38:47] Speaker 3: think if Bo Nix was healthy, they probably would have
[38:48] Speaker 3: beat the Patriots and gone to the Super Bowl and
[38:50] Speaker 3: maybe been more competitive against Seattle than New England was.
[38:54] Speaker 3: So sometimes you're lucky, sometimes you're just flat out unlucky,
[38:56] Speaker 3: and it ruins a very promising season. Now we have
[38:59] Speaker 3: these two teams with history of both luck and bad
[39:02] Speaker 3: luck recently facing off on Monday night. And I got
[39:06] Speaker 3: to say, I want to start off by dispelling a
[39:10] Speaker 3: rumor that I accidentally played into last year. This rumor was,
[39:15] Speaker 3: Bo Nix is a tremendous fourth quarter quarterback, and that
[39:20] Speaker 3: this team would be awful for three quarters, then turn
[39:23] Speaker 3: it on in the fourth quarter, and it was all
[39:24] Speaker 3: because of Bo Nix, and he was spectacular, and man,
[39:27] Speaker 3: when Sean Payton really took the leash off and let's
[39:30] Speaker 3: Bo be Bo late in games, that's when they were
[39:32] Speaker 3: at their best, and.
[39:32] Speaker 2: They should do that this year. Not necessarily.
[39:36] Speaker 3: Again, I played into this because I remembered the Eagles game,
[39:39] Speaker 3: and I remember the Giants game, which happened to be
[39:41] Speaker 3: the only two games that they were actually trailing going
[39:44] Speaker 3: into the fourth quarter the entire year.
[39:46] Speaker 2: When Bo was healthy.
[39:47] Speaker 3: And those two games... especially because they happened early in
[39:50] Speaker 3: the season, kind of stamped the Broncos' reputation for being
[39:55] Speaker 3: this clutch.
[39:56] Speaker 2: Fourth quarter team.
[39:57] Speaker 3: But if you look at the other 17 games that
[40:00] Speaker 3: they were in, I think it was 17 games, I'm
[40:01] Speaker 3: not a math major, they actually weren't that great of
[40:05] Speaker 3: a fourth quarter offense. And if you're looking at just
[40:07] Speaker 3: scoring drive percentages, like the percentage of your drives in
[40:12] Speaker 3: which you're scoring quarter by quarter, the entire year, the
[40:16] Speaker 3: first three quarters, they were 25th in scoring drive percentage.
[40:19] Speaker 3: In the fourth quarter, they were ninth. But if you
[40:21] Speaker 3: take out the Eagles and the Giants game, they drop
[40:25] Speaker 3: down to, again, well below average. So they had these
[40:29] Speaker 3: two games where they were exceptional in the fourth quarter,
[40:31] Speaker 3: those two games, mind you, that were only possible to
[40:34] Speaker 3: win because the defense was playing its ass off in
[40:37] Speaker 3: the fourth quarter. Think back to that Jackson-Dart interception on
[40:41] Speaker 3: third and five with five minutes to go. If they
[40:44] Speaker 3: don't throw a pick there, and give the Broncos 19
[40:47] Speaker 3: yards to go to get a touchdown, do the Broncos
[40:49] Speaker 3: even win that game and have this fourth quarter reputation?
[40:52] Speaker 2: Probably not.
[40:53] Speaker 3: If the Eagles didn't go three and out, three and out,
[40:56] Speaker 3: three and out in the fourth quarter, they were leading
[40:59] Speaker 3: 17 to three. Did the Broncos win that game? Probably not.
[41:03] Speaker 2: So I would argue.
[41:04] Speaker 3: That yes, Bo capitalized on the opportunity that was given
[41:08] Speaker 3: to him. But if you're looking at a season long
[41:10] Speaker 3: sample size, they would not have had this fourth quarter
[41:14] Speaker 3: offensive reputation without those two games, and those two games
[41:16] Speaker 3: wouldn't have happened without their defense being arguably the best
[41:20] Speaker 3: in the league.
[41:21] Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think that it's part of a much
[41:23] Speaker 1: grander Bo Nix conversation where I feel like he's so
[41:28] Speaker 1: polarizing because everyone just wants it to be very black
[41:31] Speaker 1: and white of like Bo Nix is awful.
[41:33] Speaker 2: He's not a good quarterback. And like Bo Nix is incredible.
[41:35] Speaker 3: He's a super like, and that's not what I'm saying,
[41:37] Speaker 3: by the way, I do think like, I like Bo, but,
[41:40] Speaker 3: but we have to be realistic that like being down 19,
[41:43] Speaker 3: nothing in the fourth quarter against the giants and winning
[41:46] Speaker 3: that game. That doesn't just mean Bo Nix is a
[41:49] Speaker 3: top 12 quarterback in the NFL, which is what I
[41:51] Speaker 3: think people are like trying to force the issue on.
[41:54] Speaker 2: And it's like, that's, that's, it's.
[41:56] Speaker 3: Such a nuanced conversation and people refuse to have the
[41:59] Speaker 3: nuance about it. And I'm not saying we should just
[42:01] Speaker 3: take out the best moments for every single quarterback. I'm
[42:04] Speaker 3: just saying the rest of the sample size is not
[42:07] Speaker 3: like that. And that matters in the conversation. We can't
[42:11] Speaker 3: just talk about two games.
[42:13] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[42:13] Speaker 1: Volatility is important to recognize when it's there. And I
[42:16] Speaker 1: think that the whole point of drafting a quarterback and
[42:19] Speaker 1: getting a quarterback is to get a player who has
[42:21] Speaker 1: the ability to win you big games. Does Bo Nix
[42:23] Speaker 1: have the ability to win you big games?
[42:25] Speaker 2: Yes. Is Bo Nix also volatile? Yes.
[42:29] Speaker 1: Like these two things both exist and it's why there's
[42:32] Speaker 1: this big counter of everybody who's on one side and
[42:35] Speaker 1: the other of sort of this Bo Nix, what is
[42:37] Speaker 1: he type of spectrum. And the truth is, is that
[42:40] Speaker 1: you kind of just don't know week in and week out.
[42:43] Speaker 1: And that's the dangerous part of evaluation of sort of,
[42:46] Speaker 1: you know, the second and beyond contract with him. That's
[42:49] Speaker 1: when the conversation really gets tough. But is he a
[42:51] Speaker 1: player who can win you big games?
[42:53] Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely. Mahomes is as well. And in this game,
[42:55] Speaker 2: I'm going to.
[42:55] Speaker 1: Be looking for how much Vance Joseph is going to
[42:58] Speaker 1: blitz him, right? Like how aggressive are they going to
[43:00] Speaker 1: be with Mahomes coming off of the injury, testing sort
[43:03] Speaker 1: of his mobility and what he's like, because he's good
[43:06] Speaker 1: when he is pressured, right? I mean, Mahomes has some
[43:09] Speaker 1: of those magical moments outside of structure we've seen from
[43:12] Speaker 1: any quarterback ever, let alone over the last couple of years.
[43:15] Speaker 1: But when it comes to what he is in his
[43:19] Speaker 1: current state, I don't know if he's going to be
[43:21] Speaker 1: this super mobile quarterback right off the bat this season.
[43:25] Speaker 1: The way that they're going to mitigate some pressure and
[43:27] Speaker 1: blitzes to me is lower average depth of target stuff.
[43:30] Speaker 1: I think we're going to have lower average depth of
[43:32] Speaker 1: targets for the receivers, for specifically the running backs, because
[43:36] Speaker 1: now I believe they have the running backs to be
[43:37] Speaker 1: able to do it. Kenneth Walker, Emmitt Johnson, Brashard Smith.
[43:41] Speaker 1: I think that it's going to be a little bit
[43:43] Speaker 1: more of a yards after catch type of a game.
[43:44] Speaker 1: When you look at 2025, Mahomes had 56.8% of his
[43:48] Speaker 1: total passing yards were yards after catch stuff. That was
[43:50] Speaker 1: fourth most in the NFL. Over 2,000 of his passing
[43:53] Speaker 1: yards were yards after catch numbers.
[43:55] Speaker 2: That was fifth most in the NFL.
[43:57] Speaker 1: So they were comfortable putting this into the game plan
[44:00] Speaker 1: last year. I just think they've got better skill position
[44:02] Speaker 1: players to do it. So for the longest time, Brett,
[44:06] Speaker 1: I think that the thought was, Oh, thank God he
[44:09] Speaker 1: didn't pass it deep because he didn't really care about
[44:12] Speaker 1: him dumping it off to the receivers or the running backs.
[44:15] Speaker 1: And even Travis Kelsey, as he's gotten a little bit
[44:17] Speaker 1: older because defensive are like, all right, who cares? We're
[44:19] Speaker 1: just going to rally and tackle. Now they've got playmakers,
[44:23] Speaker 1: better playmakers after the catch.
[44:25] Speaker 2: And I think that is going to be an interesting
[44:27] Speaker 2: point of who's going to win this game. Cyrus Allen,
[44:30] Speaker 2: wide receiver one. Are you with me? He's good. I
[44:34] Speaker 2: don't think. What can I say? He's good.
[44:35] Speaker 1: I don't think I can go that far on the
[44:38] Speaker 1: battlefield with you, brother. But I do think that he
[44:41] Speaker 1: is going to be a major point of what's going
[44:44] Speaker 1: to be a difference to this game. I do think
[44:45] Speaker 1: the Broncos win this game, though. I think it's going
[44:47] Speaker 1: to be too much with the Broncos for the Chiefs
[44:50] Speaker 1: in this one, although, of course, we know it's going
[44:51] Speaker 1: to be close any time that these teams match up
[44:53] Speaker 1: against each other.
[44:54] Speaker 2: When you play a team like that, it's never going
[44:56] Speaker 2: to be perfect. But, man, not once did we flinch.
[45:01] Speaker 3: So we're going to finish off the show with a
[45:02] Speaker 3: little bit of fan Q & A. You guys sent
[45:04] Speaker 3: us literally hundreds of questions before we did our first
[45:08] Speaker 3: episode here, and so we just have so many left
[45:10] Speaker 3: over that we're just going to keep answering questions as
[45:13] Speaker 3: the season goes on because you guys have given us
[45:15] Speaker 3: a bunch of great ideas. The first one, this comes
[45:18] Speaker 3: from an all-time name, Spencer Fano, OT1.
[45:22] Speaker 2: Hell yeah. It's great. I love it.
[45:25] Speaker 3: It says, Seahawks defensive scheme has gotten way too little
[45:29] Speaker 3: attention for being one of the best defenses by DVOA ever.
[45:32] Speaker 3: They won the Super Bowl and dominated everyone, not named Stafford,
[45:35] Speaker 3: but I still haven't seen more than a few breakdowns
[45:37] Speaker 3: of what McDonald does better than everyone else. I think
[45:41] Speaker 3: Mike McDonald's superpower is not necessarily scheme. It's not even
[45:44] Speaker 3: game planning. Obviously, he's great at those two things. I
[45:47] Speaker 3: think it's teaching.
[45:49] Speaker 2: I think his.
[45:49] Speaker 3: Ability to teach this system to players in an era
[45:54] Speaker 3: where there is limited practice time in the offseason's Guys
[45:57] Speaker 3: aren't necessarily doing as many preseason snaps as they used
[46:00] Speaker 3: to back in the day. There's also less preseason games now.
[46:03] Speaker 3: The ability to still teach and install a very complex
[46:06] Speaker 3: defense in a short period of time and have guys
[46:09] Speaker 3: ready to go by week one, that is special. There's
[46:15] Speaker 3: an example of his teaching style that I always look
[46:17] Speaker 3: back to. They have a very modular defense, right? So
[46:20] Speaker 3: they can call any pressure in their system out of
[46:23] Speaker 3: any look, whether... whatever personnel grouping they're in, like whatever
[46:28] Speaker 3: like defensive look they're in, they can call a pressure
[46:30] Speaker 3: out of anything. And it's always just triggered with a
[46:32] Speaker 3: word and that word being part of the call. And
[46:35] Speaker 3: so how they install their pressures is they do what's
[46:37] Speaker 3: called pressure stations in practice, where they just take five
[46:40] Speaker 3: trash cans, right? And they, they send guys through in
[46:45] Speaker 3: stations and they line them up a certain way and
[46:47] Speaker 3: they say, here's your word. And they just teach you
[46:50] Speaker 3: every single way to run the same pressure. Like each
[46:53] Speaker 3: station is one type of pressure and it's just a
[46:56] Speaker 3: great way to get it to stick. And it's why
[46:59] Speaker 3: they look like they never call the same thing twice,
[47:02] Speaker 3: even though they actually are.
[47:03] Speaker 2: It's amazing.
[47:04] Speaker 1: It's such a great call out by you because when
[47:07] Speaker 1: it comes to that teaching aspect, everyone loves versatility. You
[47:11] Speaker 1: want the, all these players to be versatile and to
[47:13] Speaker 1: be able to do so many different things. But It's
[47:15] Speaker 1: so rare that you get players who can be versatile
[47:19] Speaker 1: but also play fast. Everybody on the field almost operates
[47:23] Speaker 1: the game as if they are the star player with
[47:25] Speaker 1: everything that they can do and how confident they play
[47:28] Speaker 1: while they do it. That is what is truly rare
[47:31] Speaker 1: about the Seahawks defense amidst, of course, the great talent
[47:34] Speaker 1: that they have in a lot of their individual players
[47:36] Speaker 1: as well.
[47:37] Speaker 3: Second question comes from Sam Teets, by the way. Shout
[47:40] Speaker 3: out Sam Teets. He works with USA Football, the men's
[47:42] Speaker 3: national flag team. So we always love to shout out
[47:45] Speaker 3: our flag team here on NFL Pro. Sam asks, which
[47:48] Speaker 3: wide receivers over the age of 30 do you think
[47:51] Speaker 3: have the most left in the tank to help teams
[47:53] Speaker 3: make postseason runs?
[47:56] Speaker 2: So obviously you got future Hall of.
[47:58] Speaker 3: Famers, Devontae, Mike Evans, Cortland Sutton, Terry McLaurin.
[48:03] Speaker 2: You know, Stefan Diggs is back in the mix again.
[48:06] Speaker 3: Out of all of these receivers north of 30, who
[48:09] Speaker 3: has the most gas?
[48:11] Speaker 1: I think McLaurin's got the most left in the tank.
[48:13] Speaker 1: I don't think Washington's a post-season team. So to answer
[48:17] Speaker 1: the first part of the question, I think McLaurin's got
[48:19] Speaker 1: a lot left in the tank. I think he's going
[48:20] Speaker 1: to be great this year as long as he is
[48:22] Speaker 1: fully healthy. I think we're going to see that quite
[48:24] Speaker 1: a bit from him this season. But in terms of
[48:26] Speaker 1: who's got the most left in the tank for post-season runs,
[48:29] Speaker 1: I genuinely think that's Devontae Adams again. I think that Devontae,
[48:33] Speaker 1: even if he is just the the touchdown merchant that
[48:38] Speaker 1: he was last season. If you can do that, dude,
[48:42] Speaker 1: if you could be a player that you go, hey,
[48:45] Speaker 1: in the red zone, find me separation and Matthew Stafford's
[48:48] Speaker 1: going to find you, we're going to convert for six.
[48:50] Speaker 1: Unbelievably valuable. like insanely valuable. So he's not going to
[48:55] Speaker 1: rack up the stats that he was when he was
[48:57] Speaker 1: with prime Aaron Rodgers, when it was him and Aaron Rodgers,
[49:00] Speaker 1: one of the best quarterback wide receiver do is in
[49:02] Speaker 1: the NFL. But to me, that's probably the answer to
[49:06] Speaker 1: that question. I think Matt Evans is going to be
[49:08] Speaker 1: a strong presence as well, but they're going to need,
[49:10] Speaker 1: I think, plenty around Mike. Sutton's obviously huge because he's
[49:13] Speaker 1: had a lot of targets for the Denver Broncos offense,
[49:16] Speaker 1: but I think the Jalen Waddle is really going to
[49:17] Speaker 1: sort of kelp. I was going to say eat into that,
[49:20] Speaker 1: but the word I'll use is compliment that a little
[49:23] Speaker 1: bit more. So all that, all of that to say,
[49:24] Speaker 1: I think the answer is Devante Adams.
[49:27] Speaker 2: Yes.
[49:28] Speaker 3: You mentioned that McLaurin, you know, we at the moment
[49:31] Speaker 3: don't think the commanders are going to go on a
[49:33] Speaker 3: run here. I don't even think commanders fans think they're
[49:34] Speaker 3: going to go on a run here. I think there's
[49:38] Speaker 3: a world where, Terry becomes a trade ship mid-season to
[49:43] Speaker 3: a team that needs a receiver and is going on
[49:45] Speaker 3: a run. Can I interest you in future Houston Texans
[49:47] Speaker 3: legend Terry McLaurin?
[49:51] Speaker 2: I wish it was Jaden Higgins. I do too.
[49:55] Speaker 1: I wish it was Jaden Higgins, but yeah, I mean, yeah,
[49:58] Speaker 1: of course you can interest me in that if the
[50:00] Speaker 1: Texans are rolling by the time we get to the deadline.
[50:02] Speaker 3: Because at that point, then he really would be the
[50:05] Speaker 3: receiver that has the most gas in the tank that
[50:07] Speaker 3: can lead a team to a championship. Because my God,
[50:10] Speaker 3: have you seen how the Texans receiver depth chart has
[50:13] Speaker 3: fallen apart in the last two weeks?
[50:15] Speaker 2: It's ridiculous. It's not great. It's not great.
[50:18] Speaker 1: So there are 10 games that the win probability is
[50:20] Speaker 1: between 40 and 60% for the two teams that are
[50:23] Speaker 1: facing off. So for those 10 games, what we're going
[50:26] Speaker 1: to do is pick the winner, but we're also going
[50:28] Speaker 1: to rank them in terms of how confident we are
[50:31] Speaker 1: in the picks and who's going to be winning the game.
[50:33] Speaker 1: So your number one confidence game, you will get 10 points, right?
[50:37] Speaker 1: Because there's 10 games this week. Number two, you'll get
[50:40] Speaker 1: nine and so on and so forth. So we'll go
[50:42] Speaker 1: through all 10 of those games. We'll pick the winner,
[50:44] Speaker 1: but we'll also tell you where they are in our
[50:45] Speaker 1: confidence list because we're going to keep score every.
[50:48] Speaker 2: Single week and see. I don't know what the punishment's
[50:50] Speaker 2: going to be at the end of the year.
[50:51] Speaker 1: I feel like the fans need to be the ones
[50:53] Speaker 1: to come up with like what the winner wins or maybe.
[50:56] Speaker 3: Just don't make me do a felony. That's all I ask, please.
[50:59] Speaker 2: Misdemeanor, I'm okay. Just no felonies. We have one rule.
[51:03] Speaker 2: We have one rule here.
[51:04] Speaker 1: So let's dig into it because we got a lot
[51:06] Speaker 1: of things to talk about. First game, we already talked
[51:08] Speaker 1: about a little bit on this show, Chicago and Carolina.
[51:11] Speaker 2: Who are you picking in this game? And then where
[51:13] Speaker 2: is it in the confidence meter for you on that
[51:15] Speaker 2: 10 list?
[51:17] Speaker 3: So I'm picking Chicago in this one for a lot
[51:19] Speaker 3: of the reasons we talked about, right?
[51:21] Speaker 2: Not that I see.
[51:22] Speaker 3: The Panthers as like a fraudulent team. It's just they
[51:24] Speaker 3: kind of won They won in some funky ways last year,
[51:28] Speaker 3: and obviously the Bears won in some funky ways as well,
[51:30] Speaker 3: but I felt like the method that the Bears win
[51:33] Speaker 3: is a little bit more translatable going into this year
[51:36] Speaker 3: compared to the Panthers. I fully accept I could be
[51:38] Speaker 3: wrong about this. Maybe Phillips and Devin Lloyd are the
[51:42] Speaker 3: keys to making this thing work.
[51:44] Speaker 2: We'll see.
[51:46] Speaker 3: I just feel more confident at the moment in Chicago,
[51:49] Speaker 3: which is why I put this at the seven spot
[51:52] Speaker 3: in my competition. So if I get this one correct,
[51:54] Speaker 3: I get seven points.
[51:56] Speaker 1: Okay, so you're taking the Bears. I'm also taking the Bears.
[51:58] Speaker 1: I also put this pretty high. This is in the
[52:00] Speaker 1: nine spot for me. I'm getting nine points if I
[52:02] Speaker 1: get this one right, which is, yeah, almost at the top.
[52:05] Speaker 1: This is my second most highest confident game that I
[52:07] Speaker 1: have here, and the reason why is because I just
[52:09] Speaker 1: don't think Carolina can keep up. I don't think it's
[52:12] Speaker 1: going to be perfect for either team. Week one rarely is,
[52:14] Speaker 1: but I just don't think Carolina's got the horses to
[52:18] Speaker 1: win the race when it comes to putting up the
[52:20] Speaker 1: points against this Chicago Bears offense. Next game, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
[52:26] Speaker 1: and the Cincinnati Bengals. Where are we here with Baker
[52:29] Speaker 1: Mayfield traveling to Cincinnati to take on Joe Burrow and
[52:33] Speaker 1: the Bengals?
[52:33] Speaker 2: What do you think?
[52:35] Speaker 3: So I actually disagreed with the win probability model here
[52:38] Speaker 3: because the win probability model had, I think it was
[52:41] Speaker 3: like 58% Bengals or something like that.
[52:43] Speaker 2: Little man versus machine.
[52:45] Speaker 3: I think the Bucs are too good in line of
[52:48] Speaker 3: scrimmage to lose this game. You know, Emeka's practicing. Like
[52:51] Speaker 3: I think he's going to play. He's got that toe issue,
[52:54] Speaker 3: which I, I'm assuming it's turf toe. If you injure
[52:56] Speaker 3: a toe, it's like 90%.
[52:58] Speaker 2: He can have mine. It's fine. To take my big toe.
[53:02] Speaker 3: But I just, I look at what the bucks are
[53:04] Speaker 3: on the line of scrimmage. And I compared that to
[53:06] Speaker 3: even an improved, you know, Bengals roster on the defensive line.
[53:11] Speaker 3: And I still, I just, I think they're going to
[53:13] Speaker 3: struggle to block Tampa. And I really love Baker as
[53:15] Speaker 3: a quarterback. I think if Emeka plays even 80%, I
[53:20] Speaker 3: think they're going to be fine.
[53:21] Speaker 2: I think Tampa wins that game. So where is this
[53:23] Speaker 2: on the list for you though? Two. I'm not super confident,
[53:26] Speaker 2: but I do think they win.
[53:28] Speaker 1: Well, this is the game that we're flipped here. I'm
[53:31] Speaker 1: taking the Bengals over the Bucs. I obviously hope you're right,
[53:33] Speaker 1: but I'm going to take the Bengals. They're in the
[53:35] Speaker 1: three spot for me, so I get three points if
[53:38] Speaker 1: I get this one right with the Bengals. I have
[53:40] Speaker 1: faith in their offensive lines, but more importantly than that,
[53:43] Speaker 1: I'm really worried about the Buccaneers outside cornerbacks going up against,
[53:47] Speaker 1: even though they've been on the injury report, Jamar Chase
[53:50] Speaker 1: and Tee Higgins. That's... that's something that gives me a
[53:52] Speaker 1: lot of reservations. So this could definitely be a shootout
[53:54] Speaker 1: type of a game, but with it being Cincinnati, I'll
[53:57] Speaker 1: take the Bengals in this one.
[53:58] Speaker 2: Buffalo and Houston.
[54:00] Speaker 1: Talked about this on the top of the show, but
[54:02] Speaker 1: who are you taking in this one and where is
[54:04] Speaker 1: it in the confidence meter?
[54:05] Speaker 2: How many points are you earning?
[54:06] Speaker 3: I'm taking the Texans and it's at one. Because it's
[54:09] Speaker 3: a straight toss-up to me.
[54:13] Speaker 2: It's a one meaning. Bottom of the list. You're only
[54:15] Speaker 2: getting one point. Bottom of the list.
[54:17] Speaker 3: I am not putting a lot of confidence in the
[54:21] Speaker 3: Texans to win a big game because I am a
[54:23] Speaker 3: traumatized Texans fan of 20 years. But I do think
[54:27] Speaker 3: that on paper they should win this game. But yeah,
[54:29] Speaker 3: that's absolute bottom of the rankings for me.
[54:32] Speaker 1: I'll get four points if the Texans win this one.
[54:34] Speaker 1: I got them in the four-point spot here, but I'm
[54:36] Speaker 1: also taking the Houston Texans. I talked about how I'm
[54:39] Speaker 1: excited about Jim Leonard, their defensive coordinator. I think it's
[54:42] Speaker 1: going to be a little bit of a slow burn
[54:43] Speaker 1: for them. So outside of a superhuman performance from Josh
[54:47] Speaker 1: Allen against what could be the best defense in the NFL,
[54:50] Speaker 1: I'm also going to take the Texans here. Baltimore and
[54:54] Speaker 1: the Colts. So the Ravens versus the Colts here. What
[54:57] Speaker 1: do we think about this game? We didn't touch on
[54:59] Speaker 1: this one at all during the show yet, so what
[55:00] Speaker 1: do you think?
[55:02] Speaker 3: I was actually pretty confident in this one. I think
[55:03] Speaker 3: the Ravens are going to win it.
[55:05] Speaker 2: I put that at eight.
[55:06] Speaker 3: I think Jesse Minter is an incredible defensive coach. Remember
[55:10] Speaker 3: last year, the Ravens allowed just as many points in
[55:12] Speaker 3: the first five weeks of the season as they did
[55:15] Speaker 3: the entire rest of the year. All they had to
[55:17] Speaker 3: do was just have like a respectable defense in the
[55:19] Speaker 3: first month. They probably would have made the playoffs. I
[55:21] Speaker 3: think Lamar is awesome. I am a big believer in
[55:24] Speaker 3: Declan Doyle. I still think King Henry's got it. They
[55:27] Speaker 3: improved the guard spots. It's just a really, really good team.
[55:30] Speaker 3: I'm going to put that at eight.
[55:32] Speaker 1: Yeah, I have more confidence in the Ravens than I
[55:35] Speaker 1: do the Colts. I have them in the sixth spot,
[55:38] Speaker 1: but I also have the Ravens winning this game.
[55:40] Speaker 2: I'm with you. I think the offense.
[55:41] Speaker 1: is certainly going to be better. I think the Minters
[55:43] Speaker 1: are going to have that defense rolling a lot better
[55:45] Speaker 1: than what it was last season. And I'm a fan
[55:48] Speaker 1: of the changes that they have made this offseason. So
[55:51] Speaker 1: for the Colts, there are things to get excited about
[55:53] Speaker 1: on that team. I kind of got to see it
[55:55] Speaker 1: on that defensive line. I need that defensive line to
[55:57] Speaker 1: be constant in pressures, but also finishers.
[55:59] Speaker 2: That's what we really need here.
[56:01] Speaker 1: And I think it'll be a good test against some
[56:03] Speaker 1: new Ravens offensive linemen. So we're both taking the Ravens.
[56:06] Speaker 1: You got that one a little bit higher on the
[56:07] Speaker 1: confidence meter than I do. The Atlanta Falcons and the
[56:10] Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers. What do we think about this one?
[56:14] Speaker 3: I'm going to go Steelers. It's not the most confident.
[56:17] Speaker 3: I put them in the four spot. I just want
[56:20] Speaker 3: to see what the Falcons quarterback situation looks like, right?
[56:24] Speaker 2: I just don't know.
[56:25] Speaker 3: And I really can't be confident in something that I
[56:28] Speaker 3: don't know. And even though I'm not like a huge
[56:32] Speaker 3: believer in the Steelers this year, I do think they're
[56:34] Speaker 3: at least going to be a solid team. I'm not
[56:36] Speaker 3: even sure the Falcons are a solid team. So give
[56:40] Speaker 3: me the Steelers now.
[56:41] Speaker 2: I'm with you.
[56:42] Speaker 1: I got the Steelers winning this game as well. I
[56:44] Speaker 1: got them in the seven spot, actually. And it's just
[56:46] Speaker 1: simply because... I get a lot of faith in Mike
[56:48] Speaker 1: McCarthy as a coach to just raise the floor of
[56:52] Speaker 1: this team. Like I think the floor for the Steelers,
[56:55] Speaker 1: they might win this game without even scoring 20 points, right?
[56:59] Speaker 1: But I just have more faith that they're going to
[57:01] Speaker 1: be able to operate things on both sides of the
[57:04] Speaker 1: ball a little bit better than the Falcons are. I
[57:06] Speaker 1: think the Falcons have some explosive players that can make things.
[57:09] Speaker 2: Happen for them.
[57:10] Speaker 1: They've just really got a hit on those explosive players.
[57:13] Speaker 1: to win this game given the uncertainty that they've got
[57:15] Speaker 1: at the quarterback position. So we're both taking the Steelers.
[57:17] Speaker 1: You got it in the four spot. I got it
[57:19] Speaker 1: in the seven spot if they end up winning.
[57:21] Speaker 2: Jets, Titans, where are they at in your race? Yeah,
[57:25] Speaker 2: this one kind of confused me too.
[57:26] Speaker 3: The win probability model was really hot on the Titans
[57:30] Speaker 3: for this one.
[57:32] Speaker 2: I still would go Jets here. I'm with you. I agree.
[57:34] Speaker 1: Yeah.
[57:37] Speaker 3: And I don't know if it's just because, like, hey,
[57:38] Speaker 3: Jeff Simmons exists. Titans are going to win.
[57:40] Speaker 2: Like, it's fair. Absolutely fair point. It is fair, yeah.
[57:44] Speaker 3: You look at all the talent the Jets have added. Unfortunately,
[57:47] Speaker 3: not at the most important position. But all the talent
[57:50] Speaker 3: the Jets have added in the last two offseasons. The
[57:52] Speaker 3: offensive line's been rebuilt. Like, Brees is good to go.
[57:54] Speaker 3: They got receivers.
[57:56] Speaker 2: You know.
[57:58] Speaker 3: defensive talent up and down, but it's not like the
[58:01] Speaker 3: worst in the league. They brought in a bunch of
[58:03] Speaker 3: veterans like DeMario Davis still got it somehow at age
[58:06] Speaker 3: a billion. So I really do think the Jets, like if,
[58:10] Speaker 3: how about this? If you put Cam Ward on the Jets,
[58:12] Speaker 3: would this even be a discussion?
[58:15] Speaker 1: No, but I, and dude, I have the Jets winning
[58:19] Speaker 1: this game in the eighth spot. I see you've got
[58:22] Speaker 1: it in the sixth spot. I have it even higher
[58:24] Speaker 1: than you. So I think that NGS having the Titans
[58:30] Speaker 1: at a 56% win percentage here kind of goes to
[58:34] Speaker 1: the fact that this game's in Tennessee. So I think
[58:36] Speaker 1: they're just thinking, hey, these are two teams that may
[58:37] Speaker 1: be not the best in the NFL, but we'll take
[58:39] Speaker 1: the team that's got the home field advantage there.
[58:42] Speaker 2: I think the Jets are going to be able to
[58:43] Speaker 2: get that after the quarterback.
[58:44] Speaker 1: And I still have my reservations about Cam Ward being
[58:48] Speaker 1: too loose with the football. And until I see him
[58:50] Speaker 1: take care of the football a little bit better, I'm
[58:52] Speaker 1: always going to worry about that. I think the Jets
[58:54] Speaker 1: are going to be better. Give me the Jets and
[58:56] Speaker 1: give them to me in the eight spot there.
[58:58] Speaker 3: Gino Smith famously safe with the football in 2025.
[59:00] Speaker 2: Hey. You got a point.
[59:07] Speaker 1: But I do think that I do think that the
[59:09] Speaker 1: Jets have some ways to make a difference with you
[59:13] Speaker 1: know some of the past catchers that they've gotten I
[59:15] Speaker 1: think a little bit more stability on the offensive line
[59:18] Speaker 1: specifically to be able to give me a little bit
[59:21] Speaker 1: more faith that they're gonna win this game Miami Dolphins
[59:23] Speaker 1: and the Las Vegas Raiders what do we think about
[59:25] Speaker 1: this one where is it in the conference ratings.
[59:28] Speaker 2: I went Vegas.
[59:29] Speaker 3: I would be more confident in it, weirdly, if Fernando
[59:34] Speaker 3: Mendoza was starting.
[59:36] Speaker 2: You would be? I think I would. I like what
[59:39] Speaker 2: I saw in the preseason.
[59:41] Speaker 3: Like, yeah, there's bumps in the road, but like, I really,
[59:44] Speaker 3: I think they got something here.
[59:46] Speaker 2: Oh, I think they do too. I just, yeah, I
[59:48] Speaker 2: don't know. I don't know about week one.
[59:50] Speaker 3: I just, I really like his just added flavor of
[59:54] Speaker 3: mobility to get himself out of trouble when he needs to. And,
[59:57] Speaker 3: you know, as a passer, like they were like under center,
[59:59] Speaker 3: like half the time in the preseason, which he's never
[1:00:01] Speaker 3: done that before. And I thought he looked, he acquitted
[1:00:03] Speaker 3: himself well, like they were doing actual drop back passes,
[1:00:06] Speaker 3: no play action from under center.
[1:00:07] Speaker 2: I'm like, oh my God, kids got it. They're fine.
[1:00:10] Speaker 2: So I put it at five.
[1:00:11] Speaker 3: I think I would have put it higher if Mendoza
[1:00:14] Speaker 3: was starting, but for now I put it at five.
[1:00:16] Speaker 1: I'm taking the Dolphins because to me it's one of
[1:00:18] Speaker 1: those games where everybody's potentially predicting the Dolphins to get
[1:00:21] Speaker 1: the number one overall pick in the draft. And this
[1:00:24] Speaker 1: is one of those games where we said week one
[1:00:26] Speaker 1: is a liar. We said at the top of the
[1:00:28] Speaker 1: show week one is a liar.
[1:00:29] Speaker 2: Okay.
[1:00:31] Speaker 1: I think the Miami Dolphins are winning this game. And
[1:00:34] Speaker 1: you know how much I think it? I have them
[1:00:37] Speaker 1: at the one point for the confidence meter, so they
[1:00:39] Speaker 1: are all the way at the bottom. But I am
[1:00:41] Speaker 1: taking Miami here to try to steal a point from
[1:00:43] Speaker 1: you by picking the Dolphins to win this game. The
[1:00:46] Speaker 1: Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings, we spent a
[1:00:48] Speaker 1: lot of time on this game earlier in the show.
[1:00:50] Speaker 1: But what do you think about this? Who do you
[1:00:52] Speaker 1: think wins and where is.
[1:00:53] Speaker 2: It on the list? I'm very confident in this one.
[1:00:56] Speaker 2: I think the Vikings win. I put it at nine. Ooh.
[1:01:00] Speaker 3: Like, I really am confident the Vikings win this game.
[1:01:04] Speaker 2: Dare I say... Not close. Damn. Like more than a possession.
[1:01:13] Speaker 2: He threw out the not close phrase.
[1:01:16] Speaker 3: Because, again, the Packers defense without Micah is not the same.
[1:01:20] Speaker 2: That's tough.
[1:01:21] Speaker 3: I know that Kevin O'Connell has a million different quarters
[1:01:24] Speaker 3: beaters in his back pocket. I mean, they won nine
[1:01:26] Speaker 3: games last year with J.J. McCarthy and Max Brosber.
[1:01:29] Speaker 2: Come on. I don't think it's close. All due respect.
[1:01:35] Speaker 2: With all due respect.
[1:01:36] Speaker 3: But like even Packers fans are like, yeah, man, I
[1:01:40] Speaker 3: don't know.
[1:01:41] Speaker 1: I also look, I also think the Vikings win this game.
[1:01:43] Speaker 1: I have in the five spot sort of right in
[1:01:45] Speaker 1: the middle of my list. So I got to be
[1:01:47] Speaker 1: number five. You got the Vikings winning maybe nine points
[1:01:50] Speaker 1: there for that one. Dallas and and New York, the
[1:01:53] Speaker 1: Cowboys versus the Giants.
[1:01:55] Speaker 3: The only game I'm more confident in is the Cowboys
[1:01:57] Speaker 3: over the Giants in this one.
[1:01:58] Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm the same.
[1:01:59] Speaker 1: This is my 10-spot game. We have the same 10-spot
[1:02:03] Speaker 1: game here, and that is with the Cowboys winning over
[1:02:05] Speaker 1: the Giants.
[1:02:07] Speaker 2: It's really the.
[1:02:08] Speaker 3: Start of the NFL season every year when we get
[1:02:11] Speaker 3: our first primetime Giants-Cowboys game when the Cowboys win by
[1:02:14] Speaker 3: like a gazillion points. It's been a few years since
[1:02:18] Speaker 3: we've had it, but that's football to me. Early season September,
[1:02:22] Speaker 3: Cowboys-Giants primetime, just drubbing. I could also see it happening.
[1:02:29] Speaker 3: I could also see it happening here. Too many changes
[1:02:31] Speaker 3: for New York. Denver and Kansas City. We just previewed
[1:02:35] Speaker 3: this one before we got into game picks. Where's this
[1:02:37] Speaker 3: one on the list? This one was closer for me.
[1:02:41] Speaker 3: I put it number three on the list. Chiefs over Broncos.
[1:02:45] Speaker 3: I was actually kind of surprised by the model on
[1:02:47] Speaker 3: this one because it did have the Chiefs winning this game,
[1:02:52] Speaker 3: which when I went into it, I was like, oh yeah,
[1:02:54] Speaker 3: it's obviously going to, you know, it's going to give
[1:02:57] Speaker 3: the the Broncos a higher percentage it actually gave the
[1:02:59] Speaker 3: Chiefs a higher percentage so I found myself shocked that
[1:03:02] Speaker 3: I was agreeing uh with the model but I I
[1:03:05] Speaker 3: really do for a lot of the reasons we talked
[1:03:07] Speaker 3: about you know if you're looking at the the Broncos
[1:03:09] Speaker 3: defense they don't have Franklin Myers anymore Cooper's on the
[1:03:13] Speaker 3: exempt list you know is their pass rush still going
[1:03:17] Speaker 3: to be as good this year as it was last
[1:03:18] Speaker 3: year because of that I think Mahomes is fine like
[1:03:21] Speaker 3: I really do think he's healthy I.
[1:03:24] Speaker 2: There's a lot of reasons. People are going to clip that.
[1:03:26] Speaker 2: It's going to be you calling Mahomes just fine.
[1:03:30] Speaker 1: I hope you realize that. You've been around the internet
[1:03:33] Speaker 1: long enough. You played yourself, my friend.
[1:03:35] Speaker 3: There's like four things in this segment that are going
[1:03:38] Speaker 3: to get clipped and.
[1:03:39] Speaker 2: Shoved in my face. Brother, the whole segment's going to
[1:03:41] Speaker 2: get clipped. You know it. It's a clippable segment.
[1:03:44] Speaker 3: I give Giants fans full permission, by the way, to
[1:03:47] Speaker 3: just absolutely.
[1:03:48] Speaker 2: Dunk on me if they win this game. You guys
[1:03:51] Speaker 2: have earned it.
[1:03:52] Speaker 1: I also have the Chiefs winning. I have that at
[1:03:54] Speaker 1: the two spot, though. You've got it at three spots.
[1:03:56] Speaker 1: So we both have it much lower on our confidence
[1:03:59] Speaker 1: list because I think that we both just believe this.
[1:04:01] Speaker 2: Is going to be a close game.
[1:04:03] Speaker 1: Four games that the NGS model, win probability model, thinks
[1:04:07] Speaker 1: that maybe it's not going to be so close. Washington
[1:04:10] Speaker 1: at Philadelphia. Philadelphia with a 65% win probability chance there.
[1:04:16] Speaker 1: The New Orleans Saints and the Detroit Lions. This one's
[1:04:18] Speaker 1: in Detroit, but 76% for Detroit. I was pretty shocked
[1:04:21] Speaker 1: about that. Cleveland at Jacksonville, 76% for Jacksonville. And then
[1:04:26] Speaker 1: Arizona versus LA, the Chargers.
[1:04:29] Speaker 2: Cardinals versus Chargers. 80% win percentage there from the model
[1:04:34] Speaker 2: on the side of the Chargers.
[1:04:35] Speaker 3: That's the one that scares me. I mean, besides the
[1:04:38] Speaker 3: Saints win. The Saints won, like, okay, yeah, I still
[1:04:40] Speaker 3: would pick the Lions there. 76%, I was like, all right,
[1:04:42] Speaker 3: let's slow down a little bit.
[1:04:43] Speaker 2: But... 80%? 80's a lot. That's a lot. 80's a lot. Like,
[1:04:53] Speaker 2: I get it.
[1:04:54] Speaker 3: The quarterback disparity, Mike McDaniel coming over.
[1:04:58] Speaker 2: Yeah. I get it.
[1:04:59] Speaker 3: But if you're just looking at the Cardinals roster, this
[1:05:02] Speaker 3: is actually something I talked with EJ about this week.
[1:05:04] Speaker 3: If you take Jordan Love and you put him on
[1:05:05] Speaker 3: the Cardinals roster, are they a wildcard team? I would
[1:05:08] Speaker 3: say yes, because you got an improved offensive line, even
[1:05:11] Speaker 3: after the Basantas injury, improved offensive line, Trey McBride, good receivers,
[1:05:15] Speaker 3: Jeremiah Love in the backfield. That's a good offensive roster.
[1:05:19] Speaker 3: They're just missing a quarterback. And you're telling me that
[1:05:22] Speaker 3: that team with a good offensive roster in week one,
[1:05:25] Speaker 3: which we know is a liar, you're giving them 20%?
[1:05:30] Speaker 2: Stunned me.
[1:05:31] Speaker 1: I think that their percentage should be a little bit higher.
[1:05:34] Speaker 1: I don't know if it should be that much higher.
[1:05:37] Speaker 1: What about Jacksonville and Cleveland here? I think that there's
[1:05:41] Speaker 1: just way too many question marks with what the Cleveland
[1:05:44] Speaker 1: Browns offense could be.
[1:05:46] Speaker 2: Although I will say I'm a Todd Munkin guy.
[1:05:49] Speaker 1: I like Todd Munkin. I like how he approaches the game.
[1:05:52] Speaker 1: I like what he did with the Ravens offense. Not always,
[1:05:54] Speaker 1: but most of the time. And I think that they've
[1:05:57] Speaker 1: got some added skill position players with Denzel Boston and
[1:06:01] Speaker 1: Casey Concepcion, obviously Quinshawn Junkins as well, that can be
[1:06:04] Speaker 1: a difference maker outside of just the questions at quarterback.
[1:06:07] Speaker 1: So I feel as though I like Cleveland a little
[1:06:11] Speaker 1: bit better than most people, but I certainly am not
[1:06:16] Speaker 1: going to be picking them over the Jacksonville Jaguars, who
[1:06:18] Speaker 1: could be an AFC championship and maybe even be a
[1:06:20] Speaker 1: Super Bowl team.
[1:06:21] Speaker 3: Yeah, I thought the 76% for the Jags was fair
[1:06:24] Speaker 3: here just because of gestures and everything over in Cleveland
[1:06:29] Speaker 3: right now. But the fact that Detroit and Jacksonville were
[1:06:33] Speaker 3: both at 76%, that's what stunned me, just because the
[1:06:36] Speaker 3: quality opponent is so not the same to me.
[1:06:40] Speaker 1: Yeah.
[1:06:40] Speaker 3: And then Philly at 65%. If anything was going to
[1:06:44] Speaker 3: be north of 70, I actually thought Philly would be
[1:06:46] Speaker 3: north of 70 because of the offensive line issues with
[1:06:48] Speaker 3: the commanders. I'm not entirely sure. I believe in a
[1:06:51] Speaker 3: lot of their defensive signings, even though they were expensive.
[1:06:53] Speaker 2: Like I get it. We're breaking in a new offense
[1:06:55] Speaker 2: in Philly. Like I, I fully understand.
[1:06:57] Speaker 3: But that to me felt more lopsided than Detroit saints.
[1:07:03] Speaker 1: Yeah. I, I think that it being in a division
[1:07:08] Speaker 1: and it, just not knowing the Jaden Daniels factor, right?
[1:07:12] Speaker 1: Just how unbelievable he was his rookie season and how
[1:07:15] Speaker 1: at any point in time he could put on the
[1:07:17] Speaker 1: Superman cape and maybe take over. I think that that
[1:07:19] Speaker 1: probably is baked into this a little bit, but it
[1:07:21] Speaker 1: has a lot of question marks for the commanders on
[1:07:23] Speaker 1: both sides of the trenches, but specifically the offensive trenches
[1:07:26] Speaker 1: as well. And we know that Philly can really get
[1:07:28] Speaker 1: after the quarterback. So I wouldn't be taking any of
[1:07:31] Speaker 1: these underdogs for any of these high win probability teams,
[1:07:35] Speaker 1: but New Orleans, we talked about that one. New Orleans
[1:07:38] Speaker 1: is the one to keep an eye on because there's
[1:07:40] Speaker 1: potential that that offense could be pretty dang potent, but
[1:07:43] Speaker 1: it's hard to think that they're going to outscore the
[1:07:46] Speaker 1: Detroit Lions given how great they have been over.
[1:07:48] Speaker 2: The last couple of seasons.
[1:07:49] Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the week one preview, but because
[1:07:52] Speaker 1: we're emphasizing it's week one, you know that we're going
[1:07:55] Speaker 1: to be with you guys all season long, every week
[1:07:57] Speaker 1: of the NFL season. Be sure to follow NFL Pro
[1:08:00] Speaker 1: on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.
[1:08:02] Speaker 1: We'll be back with you next week to analyze the
[1:08:05] Speaker 1: game Like a pro.

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