# Spurs elite, Rockets questions, Mavs & Grizzlies are feisty + Pels | NBA Southwest Div Prediction

An episode of [Hoops Tonight with Jason Timpf](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1536277916), 2 Oct 2026, 49 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pscrb.fm/rss/p/clrtpod.com/m/arttrk.com/p/D5CA5/prfx.byspotify.com/e/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/90447913-4e20-4e90-aa1e-ae510011dd1d/42fda990-67ef-4438-a085-b4d5011574df/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=9e36bb2c-2512-48e1-92f8-ae510011dd2b

Jason previews and makes predictions for the NBA's Southwest Division including Victor Wembanyama's San Antonio Spurs, Kevin Durant's Houston Rockets, Cooper Flagg's Dallas Mavericks, Cameron Boozer's Memphis Grizzlies, and Zion Williamson’s New Orleans Pelicans. Join polymarket: https://app.polymarket.us/S8ac/HOOPSTONIGHT 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an indepdent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization. #Volume See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: The Volume The Volume All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight
[0:16] Speaker 1: here at The Volume. Happy Friday, everybody. Hope all of
[0:18] Speaker 1: you guys are having a great end to your week.
[0:20] Speaker 1: Today is our last division preview. We are finishing our
[0:23] Speaker 1: 30 teams in two weeks as we get geared up
[0:26] Speaker 1: for the season. The first preseason game is tomorrow, and
[0:30] Speaker 1: we will be breaking that down. I think there's three
[0:32] Speaker 1: or four preseason games this weekend. We'll be breaking down
[0:34] Speaker 1: starting on Monday. We'll also get into some media day
[0:37] Speaker 1: stuff and overall training camp takes. Just basically getting into
[0:41] Speaker 1: our normal groove. The preseason will have a mix of
[0:43] Speaker 1: preseason reaction as well as some guests coming on the show.
[0:47] Speaker 1: We're getting into our normal season routine starting next week.
[0:52] Speaker 1: But one more division preview. Five more teams. You guys
[0:54] Speaker 1: know the drill. Before we get started, subscribe to the
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[1:08] Speaker 1: That helps us a lot. And last but not least,
[1:09] Speaker 1: starting next week, we'll be getting back into our mailbags.
[1:11] Speaker 1: If you want to get questions into our mailbag, drop
[1:13] Speaker 1: them in the full episodes on YouTube in the comments.
[1:16] Speaker 1: Write mailbag, colon, write your question. That helps me find
[1:18] Speaker 1: them as I'm sorting through. And we'll get to them
[1:20] Speaker 1: on Fridays throughout the remainder of the season. All right,
[1:23] Speaker 1: let's talk some basketball. The Southwest Division, starting with the
[1:27] Speaker 1: San Antonio Spurs. A little bit of roster turnover, basically
[1:31] Speaker 1: swapping out their deep bench center rotations. They lost Bismack
[1:34] Speaker 1: Biambo and Kelly Olenek and Mason Plumlee, as well as
[1:37] Speaker 1: some other deep bench guys. They added Tobias Harris, which
[1:40] Speaker 1: was the major acquisition, and then two late first-round picks.
[1:42] Speaker 1: Jaden Quainton's excellent defensive prospect who has some question marks
[1:46] Speaker 1: surrounding a knee injury that he suffered a couple years ago.
[1:51] Speaker 1: Keep an eye on him as to just whether or
[1:53] Speaker 1: not he's healthy enough to play. And then Taurus Reed Jr.,
[1:55] Speaker 1: the undersized big from UConn, who I actually really liked,
[1:58] Speaker 1: is good at a lot of dirty work stuff. So
[2:00] Speaker 1: basically swapping out, you know, kind of older, just, you know,
[2:04] Speaker 1: mercenary backup bigs that have been floating around the NBA
[2:07] Speaker 1: for years for young internal talent that San Antonio can
[2:11] Speaker 1: build with over the coming years. More or less the
[2:13] Speaker 1: same team, though, as far as the playoff rotation that
[2:16] Speaker 1: we expect, because again, we're talking about third string centers overall.
[2:19] Speaker 1: women Yama and, uh, uh, and Luke Cornette are going
[2:21] Speaker 1: to be the primary guys when they're healthy. So really
[2:24] Speaker 1: it's just adding Tobias Harris in terms of what we
[2:27] Speaker 1: would consider to be their playoff rotation. I want to
[2:30] Speaker 1: start with the Tobias Harris acquisition. And I want to
[2:33] Speaker 1: preface this by saying, this is not meant to in
[2:37] Speaker 1: any way negatively reflect on my optimism surrounding the Spurs.
[2:41] Speaker 1: I'm just looking at this move in the vacuum. I
[2:44] Speaker 1: wasn't a big fan of this one. Uh, again, I
[2:46] Speaker 1: don't think it matters much, uh, They did not lose
[2:49] Speaker 1: a rotation forward as part of this deal. It's not
[2:51] Speaker 1: like they had to swap out Julian Champagny to get
[2:54] Speaker 1: Tobias Harris, right? And even if they got my pervert forward,
[2:58] Speaker 1: John Collins, who I thought was the best MLE forward available,
[3:01] Speaker 1: I wouldn't have wanted him to take too many minutes
[3:03] Speaker 1: away from guys like Julian Champagny, Carter Bryant, Devin Vassell,
[3:06] Speaker 1: so on and so forth. My thing is, I just
[3:09] Speaker 1: don't think Tobias Harris's skill set helps them all that much.
[3:13] Speaker 1: The upside, the reason why you go get a guy
[3:15] Speaker 1: like Tobias is what you saw in the playoffs this
[3:17] Speaker 1: year when a team in Detroit who was extremely light
[3:20] Speaker 1: on ball handling needed a guy who could step up
[3:22] Speaker 1: and create shots for himself and for others. And Tobias
[3:25] Speaker 1: had eight straight 20-point games. At one point, the Pistons
[3:29] Speaker 1: won five games in a row during that stretch in
[3:31] Speaker 1: large part because of having Tobias Harris producing alongside Cade Cunningham.
[3:37] Speaker 1: I watched all those games. I'm fully aware of just
[3:39] Speaker 1: how important Tobias Harris' scoring was to the Pistons in
[3:43] Speaker 1: those games. But there are three reasons why I didn't
[3:45] Speaker 1: really think that mattered much as it pertained to this
[3:48] Speaker 1: Spurs team. One, it was an outlier. If you looked
[3:52] Speaker 1: at his recent playoff career before that run, in the
[3:55] Speaker 1: previous three playoff runs, he'd averaged 13.7 points per game.
[4:00] Speaker 1: Then he immediately cooled off after that eight straight 20-point games.
[4:03] Speaker 1: He was 14 for 49 over his last four playoff games.
[4:06] Speaker 1: So in other words, I don't look at Tobias as
[4:08] Speaker 1: dependable playoff scoring. As that was happening last year, it
[4:11] Speaker 1: just felt like a bizarre kind of outlier set of performances. Two,
[4:18] Speaker 1: I don't think the Spurs need the scoring he provides.
[4:21] Speaker 1: I think at that specific spot, that four spot, I
[4:24] Speaker 1: think they're better off with reliable spot up shooting and
[4:28] Speaker 1: perimeter defense. which is the third piece of this, the
[4:32] Speaker 1: defensive end. Tobias can guard some of the bigger bodied
[4:35] Speaker 1: guys reasonably well, but he's a foot speed target for
[4:39] Speaker 1: guards and was routinely picked on in that Cavs series
[4:42] Speaker 1: by Donovan Mitchell and James Harden. Overall in the playoffs,
[4:45] Speaker 1: he defended 39 isos, gave up 44 points, including passes.
[4:50] Speaker 1: That's 1.13, or excuse me, not including passes. That's just
[4:53] Speaker 1: straight up shot attempts on him. He gave up 44
[4:56] Speaker 1: points on 39 possessions. That's 1.13. points per possession allowed
[5:01] Speaker 1: in ISO in the half court. That's really, really bad.
[5:04] Speaker 1: So there's just no universe considering he can't guard on
[5:08] Speaker 1: the perimeter. He's not as good of a play finisher
[5:10] Speaker 1: as some of their other young wings in house. And
[5:13] Speaker 1: because they don't really need his scoring and his scoring,
[5:16] Speaker 1: isn't really all that reliable to begin with. I just
[5:18] Speaker 1: don't see any universe where he should be taking minutes
[5:21] Speaker 1: away from a guy like Julian Champagny, who is a
[5:24] Speaker 1: much better play finisher and in their system makes more
[5:28] Speaker 1: sense as a perimeter based player. defender in space now
[5:32] Speaker 1: will tobias bring some veteran leadership sure but that's a
[5:34] Speaker 1: lot of money to pay for leadership that could have
[5:37] Speaker 1: been accomplished with a veteran minimum guy who is uh
[5:40] Speaker 1: with someone else around the league for mle money like
[5:43] Speaker 1: if you were going to spend the mle i would
[5:45] Speaker 1: prefer john collins one he's a very different look next
[5:49] Speaker 1: to wemby at the four as a vertical spacer a
[5:52] Speaker 1: dominant defensive rebounder and a reliable corner three point shooter, right?
[5:56] Speaker 1: Like he's just kind of a, it would provide almost
[5:59] Speaker 1: like a athletic version of a too big look that
[6:02] Speaker 1: they could go with at the four or five. It's very,
[6:04] Speaker 1: very different than having a Julian Champagny or a Tobias
[6:07] Speaker 1: Harris at the four. Also, as we talked about in our,
[6:11] Speaker 1: in our video about the Pistons, he's a very different
[6:15] Speaker 1: type of shot creating option in the sense that he
[6:18] Speaker 1: was very efficient out of the post last year and
[6:20] Speaker 1: was just lightning quick, deep seal, quick catch, turn fire.
[6:24] Speaker 1: That was something that I thought if you plug that
[6:26] Speaker 1: into the Spurs system would be really helpful for them
[6:29] Speaker 1: in a lot of ways. So if you're going to
[6:30] Speaker 1: spend MLE money, I would have preferred John Collins over
[6:33] Speaker 1: Tobias Harris, so I just don't think it's going to
[6:35] Speaker 1: help them very much. But to be clear, that does
[6:37] Speaker 1: not change the fact that I'm extremely high on the Spurs.
[6:40] Speaker 1: That's just, you know, this team just is so freaking
[6:44] Speaker 1: good that this acquisition or however you feel about it,
[6:47] Speaker 1: even if it falls flat on its face, it just
[6:50] Speaker 1: doesn't really matter much for their prospects this season. They
[6:54] Speaker 1: have a proven defensive structure that all but guarantees they'll
[6:57] Speaker 1: be in the mix when we get to late May.
[6:59] Speaker 1: Having the depth of not just perimeter defenders, but big
[7:02] Speaker 1: physical perimeter defenders that can switch, get up into the basketball,
[7:06] Speaker 1: force guys to rush and drive right into Victor Wemenyama.
[7:09] Speaker 1: at the rim. It's just a massive problem for every
[7:13] Speaker 1: team in the NBA while also having a solid offensive
[7:16] Speaker 1: structure on the other end with classic four out spacing
[7:19] Speaker 1: with Victor Weminyama rolling hard occupying defenders with his roll
[7:23] Speaker 1: gravity shooters in the corners in a depth of players
[7:26] Speaker 1: who can make plays out of pick and roll and
[7:29] Speaker 1: ISO at the top of the key. The offense isn't perfect.
[7:31] Speaker 1: We'll get there. but it's a really strong foundation on
[7:35] Speaker 1: both ends that gives the Spurs just a very, a very,
[7:40] Speaker 1: that strong foundation is what gives them something very reliable
[7:43] Speaker 1: night in, night out in the regular season that makes
[7:45] Speaker 1: them so hard to beat. Main point I'm making is
[7:48] Speaker 1: don't confuse my dislike of the Tobias Harris acquisition for
[7:51] Speaker 1: pessimism surrounding the team because that's just not the case.
[7:54] Speaker 1: I'm torn between this team and OKC for my preseason
[7:58] Speaker 1: title pick, which I'll be deciding here in the next
[8:00] Speaker 1: couple of weeks. So it's not, negative Spurs take. It's
[8:03] Speaker 1: just a Tobias Harris take. And I wouldn't even say
[8:04] Speaker 1: that it's more just Tobias Harris in the context of
[8:07] Speaker 1: the Spurs. Like there are other teams where Tobias Harris
[8:11] Speaker 1: makes a lot more sense. It's, it's not an anti
[8:13] Speaker 1: Tobias take. It's just, I just don't think he can
[8:15] Speaker 1: really help the Spurs. A couple of big questions surrounding
[8:17] Speaker 1: the Spurs. Obviously Darren Fox is brutal playoff run. What
[8:20] Speaker 1: does that mean for the future of this team? First
[8:23] Speaker 1: of all, as I talked about last year in the postseason,
[8:25] Speaker 1: I think the injury played the largest role. All you
[8:28] Speaker 1: have to do is just look at the splits. He
[8:32] Speaker 1: got hurt right at the very end of that second
[8:34] Speaker 1: round series and missed the first couple games of the
[8:36] Speaker 1: Western Conference Finals. If you look at the pre-injury stats,
[8:40] Speaker 1: so before he got hurt, 11 games, 19 points per game, 46%
[8:44] Speaker 1: from the field, 35% from three. Post-injury in the playoffs,
[8:50] Speaker 1: 10 games, 12 points per game, 35% from the field, 24%
[8:56] Speaker 1: from three. So his production literally cratered after he hurt
[9:00] Speaker 1: his ankle that very clearly was hampering him. All you
[9:04] Speaker 1: had to do was watch him move. So like, I,
[9:08] Speaker 1: I believe deer and Fox will play better this season.
[9:12] Speaker 1: I would argue if he didn't get hurt last year,
[9:14] Speaker 1: the Spurs would be our defending champions. That's how small
[9:16] Speaker 1: the margin for error was for the Knicks in that
[9:19] Speaker 1: championship round, considering they were kind of staring up at
[9:23] Speaker 1: the Spurs and the scoreboard for most of that series
[9:27] Speaker 1: outside of the end of games where the lack of
[9:29] Speaker 1: reliable ball handling for San Antonio was what got them beat.
[9:33] Speaker 1: I believe Darren Fox will be much better this season
[9:36] Speaker 1: than he was last season. That is something I'm not
[9:40] Speaker 1: necessarily worried about. Will he be good enough to push
[9:44] Speaker 1: them over the top if they run into a very
[9:46] Speaker 1: healthy Oklahoma City Thunder team? Or a Knicks team that
[9:50] Speaker 1: did give even the healthy Spurs issues last year? That
[9:53] Speaker 1: remains to be seen. My main point is, I just
[9:56] Speaker 1: think most of his struggles at the end of last
[9:58] Speaker 1: year's playoff run had to do with injuries. and I
[10:00] Speaker 1: expect him to be better this season. Secondly, can Dylan
[10:03] Speaker 1: Harper start for this team? That's the big question, right? Like,
[10:08] Speaker 1: if De'Aaron Fox is your best ball handler and has
[10:10] Speaker 1: to be on the floor because he's the most capable
[10:13] Speaker 1: of creating shots without turning the basketball over... And you
[10:15] Speaker 1: need Steph Castle out there because he's your best perimeter defender.
[10:19] Speaker 1: If those two guys have to be out there and
[10:20] Speaker 1: Victor Wiminyama has to be out there, then you have
[10:23] Speaker 1: to look at where Dylan Harper fits in this group, right?
[10:26] Speaker 1: And so from there, it's like, okay, is he taking
[10:29] Speaker 1: Devin Vassell's spot? Is he taking Julian Champagny's spot? And
[10:33] Speaker 1: I think there's this weird kind of idea like he
[10:36] Speaker 1: can't play alongside the other two guards. And I push
[10:39] Speaker 1: back on that idea that I don't think there's anywhere
[10:42] Speaker 1: near enough data to show that they can't play together.
[10:46] Speaker 1: Those three guys, Dylan Harper, De'Aaron Fox, and Steph Castle,
[10:49] Speaker 1: alongside Victor Weminyama, played just 68 possessions in the entirety
[10:55] Speaker 1: of the regular season in the playoffs combined. So even
[10:58] Speaker 1: if you're telling me, like, Jason, I don't think that
[11:00] Speaker 1: can work, we don't know. We haven't seen anywhere near
[11:05] Speaker 1: enough data there. So I would just give that specific
[11:09] Speaker 1: group a long leash to start the season. I would
[11:12] Speaker 1: move Devin Vassell to the bench, I'd keep Champagny in
[11:15] Speaker 1: the starting lineup, and I'd play Harper, Castle, and Fox
[11:18] Speaker 1: all together. The reason why I think it can work
[11:21] Speaker 1: is because Dylan Harper and Steph Castle are both very
[11:26] Speaker 1: big for their position. Steph Castle can defend fours, and
[11:31] Speaker 1: Dylan Harper is a fire hydrant, low center of gravity
[11:35] Speaker 1: defender that can beat players on the ground and keep
[11:38] Speaker 1: them in front, which allows him to defend up in
[11:40] Speaker 1: size quite a bit. So like I think defensively and
[11:43] Speaker 1: physically they match up just fine. The question would be
[11:46] Speaker 1: the offensive fit, right? You're taking a natural catch and
[11:50] Speaker 1: shoot player in Devin Vassell and you're turning him into
[11:53] Speaker 1: a ball handling guard. I get that it's not perfect,
[11:57] Speaker 1: but in this situation, when you're trying to carve out
[12:00] Speaker 1: a role for Dylan Harper in the starting lineup, I
[12:03] Speaker 1: think that's the area where you consider plugging him in
[12:06] Speaker 1: and then just giving the group a chance. There is
[12:08] Speaker 1: a downside in the lack of natural catch and shoot talent.
[12:13] Speaker 1: There's no doubt about that. but there's an upside in
[12:16] Speaker 1: increased ball handling. We talk a lot about this idea
[12:18] Speaker 1: of stacking drives, right? Like there's an advantage to having
[12:22] Speaker 1: three dudes on the floor that are all really high
[12:25] Speaker 1: level ball handlers on the perimeter. That gives you the
[12:27] Speaker 1: ability to attack a gap draw help, kick out, then
[12:32] Speaker 1: that guy can attack a gap with a high level
[12:34] Speaker 1: off the dribble move. And then the next guy can
[12:35] Speaker 1: attack a gap with a high level off the dribble move.
[12:37] Speaker 1: And maybe you can get a really high quality look. Also,
[12:40] Speaker 1: I think Dylan Harper projects to be a really good
[12:43] Speaker 1: catch and shoot player as time goes on. And I
[12:45] Speaker 1: think there's a version of this story where even this season,
[12:48] Speaker 1: he shoots 38, 39% on catch and shoot threes. So like,
[12:52] Speaker 1: I would just give that a long run. Now let's
[12:55] Speaker 1: say you get to mid November and, And all of
[12:58] Speaker 1: a sudden, instead of having 68 possessions where they've played together,
[13:01] Speaker 1: they have 400 possessions where they've played together. And the
[13:05] Speaker 1: data comes out looking bad. That's when you can have
[13:08] Speaker 1: a more complicated discussion about, do we move De'Aaron Fox
[13:12] Speaker 1: to the bench? Do we move Dylan Harper to the
[13:15] Speaker 1: bench and try to sell him on the idea that
[13:17] Speaker 1: when he comes into the game, he'll be able to
[13:19] Speaker 1: take full control of the offense and and do his
[13:21] Speaker 1: thing in those bench groups. You can confront that down
[13:25] Speaker 1: the line. This team's margin for error is massive. Like
[13:29] Speaker 1: even if Dylan Harper with the starters doesn't work really
[13:32] Speaker 1: well by mid November, there's still going to be 10
[13:35] Speaker 1: games over 500. This team isn't going to stumble out
[13:38] Speaker 1: of the gate because they jam Dylan Harper into the
[13:41] Speaker 1: starting lineup. So like I would get him in for
[13:43] Speaker 1: Devin Vassell. I would let them have a long runway
[13:47] Speaker 1: with a three guard look and and see how it
[13:49] Speaker 1: comes together. So the final thing I'll say about this
[13:53] Speaker 1: particular idea is the pushback would be, why would you
[13:58] Speaker 1: play three guards in a somewhat, you know, uncomplimentary format
[14:05] Speaker 1: just to appease a young player who wants to start
[14:09] Speaker 1: because it's like, it's part of like his basketball ego,
[14:13] Speaker 1: so to speak. Not that Dylan's unwilling to take a
[14:15] Speaker 1: bench role, but he just looks at the situation and
[14:17] Speaker 1: he goes, I'm good enough that I should be starting.
[14:19] Speaker 1: And that's what I come back to. Who are the
[14:22] Speaker 1: five best players on the Spurs? Forget it. Who are
[14:25] Speaker 1: the four best players on the Spurs? It's Victor Wiminyama,
[14:29] Speaker 1: it's Steph Castle, it's Darren Fox, and it's Dylan Harper.
[14:32] Speaker 1: They're your four best players. So like, even if you're
[14:36] Speaker 1: telling me that by virtue of the way that those
[14:39] Speaker 1: guys compliment each other, that one has to be on
[14:41] Speaker 1: the bench, what you're telling me is that you're going
[14:43] Speaker 1: to close games with one of your four best players
[14:46] Speaker 1: sitting on the bench, which is not a strategy that
[14:49] Speaker 1: I agree with. So it is worth a long runway
[14:54] Speaker 1: with trying to get those four guys to work together.
[14:58] Speaker 1: Maybe it doesn't. But 68 possessions is nowhere near enough
[15:03] Speaker 1: data for me to punt on playing my four best
[15:07] Speaker 1: players together. So I give those guys a good long
[15:09] Speaker 1: look to start the season. The last piece of this
[15:12] Speaker 1: is internal improvement. With Steph Castle, spot-up shooting and turnovers.
[15:17] Speaker 1: As his usage went up throughout the season, his turnovers skyrocketed.
[15:21] Speaker 1: That's a big part of his development at this point.
[15:24] Speaker 1: Most of it was overpenetration. Getting too deep into the lane,
[15:27] Speaker 1: getting surrounded by bodies. and then having to panic kick
[15:31] Speaker 1: out and throwing the ball into other people's hands. Spot-up
[15:33] Speaker 1: shooting is the second piece of it. That was something
[15:35] Speaker 1: that became really unreliable for him over the tail end
[15:38] Speaker 1: of the playoffs last year. He's got to be able
[15:39] Speaker 1: to shoot the basketball better. Dylan Harper, also spot-up shooting.
[15:42] Speaker 1: It goes without saying, we talked about it earlier, but
[15:44] Speaker 1: pull-up shooting. I actually think Dylan Harper's pull up jump
[15:48] Speaker 1: shot is more important for his development than it is
[15:50] Speaker 1: for Steph castle because he's a little bit undersized, right?
[15:54] Speaker 1: Like Dylan's a great athlete and he's big and strong.
[15:56] Speaker 1: Like we talked about, but Steph is so big that
[15:59] Speaker 1: he can almost get these like Luca Donchik esque drives,
[16:02] Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler esque drives where he just has to get
[16:06] Speaker 1: a tiny bit of an angle. And then he plays
[16:08] Speaker 1: off of two feet and just pins the guy with
[16:10] Speaker 1: how big and strong he is. And he can kind
[16:12] Speaker 1: of methodically work to his spots and, And then he's
[16:14] Speaker 1: got like a short range game. Steph can get in
[16:17] Speaker 1: close to the basket relatively easily. Dylan, as you saw
[16:21] Speaker 1: in the post season, there's a lot of like hesitation
[16:24] Speaker 1: dribbles where the guy's playing five feet off of him
[16:27] Speaker 1: or snatch back dribbles where he makes a hard drive
[16:29] Speaker 1: and he does a pullback and he's just got tons
[16:31] Speaker 1: and tons of space with Dylan. I think that pullback
[16:34] Speaker 1: 15 footer and some of those pull up threes are
[16:37] Speaker 1: a little bit more important. to his internal, like to
[16:40] Speaker 1: his personal skill development trajectory. So like, that's why I
[16:43] Speaker 1: want to see a improved pull-up shooting from Dylan this
[16:45] Speaker 1: year for Victor women, Yama, obviously some big picture stuff
[16:49] Speaker 1: is conditioning needs to get a little bit better. That's
[16:51] Speaker 1: partially on the coaching staff in terms of how much
[16:53] Speaker 1: they play him. in the ramp up to the postseason
[16:56] Speaker 1: his defensive decision making right now he's kind of getting
[16:58] Speaker 1: by on his natural gifts but if he gets better
[17:01] Speaker 1: with his anticipation and in general just making better reads
[17:05] Speaker 1: on defense he'll become an even better defender but the
[17:07] Speaker 1: big one he's got to develop a go-to move as
[17:09] Speaker 1: we talked about last year I don't think it's in
[17:12] Speaker 1: the post I think he's going to get shoved off
[17:13] Speaker 1: of his spots too much he's too high center of
[17:15] Speaker 1: gravity it doesn't fit his natural build at all And
[17:19] Speaker 1: then the three point line is too high variance. So
[17:21] Speaker 1: for me with Wemby, it's getting in that 10 to
[17:24] Speaker 1: 15 foot area with either a face up jump shot
[17:27] Speaker 1: or a short turnaround, but areas where even when players
[17:31] Speaker 1: disrupt his base, it's a short enough range shot that
[17:35] Speaker 1: he can get to a pretty decent percentage, but it
[17:39] Speaker 1: also doesn't require him to fight for position underneath the
[17:41] Speaker 1: basket against players that can get up underneath them. So
[17:44] Speaker 1: for me, it's like, again, 10 to 15 foot, turnarounds,
[17:47] Speaker 1: face-up jump shots, short step backs. Those are the areas
[17:50] Speaker 1: where I think Wemby can build out a go-to move.
[17:52] Speaker 1: And lastly, Carter Bryant. Decision-making was a big one. He
[17:56] Speaker 1: would just do one or two really stupid things with
[17:58] Speaker 1: the ball in his hands in his playoff appearances. But overall,
[18:02] Speaker 1: he's got such a high defensive ceiling. And the slashing,
[18:05] Speaker 1: I thought, was something that really flashed with him last year.
[18:07] Speaker 1: His athletic takes towards the basket. If he can fix
[18:10] Speaker 1: his decision-making and continue his positive trajectory as a spot-up shooter,
[18:14] Speaker 1: he's got a lot of potential there as well. This
[18:17] Speaker 1: team isn't perfect and they're beatable, but what I keep
[18:19] Speaker 1: coming back to with the Spurs is just their margin
[18:22] Speaker 1: for error. Despite all of their execution errors last year
[18:26] Speaker 1: and all of the mistakes that we watched them make
[18:28] Speaker 1: spectacularly on big stages, they were still just about as
[18:31] Speaker 1: close as you can possibly get to winning the title
[18:33] Speaker 1: without winning. And I think if De'Aaron Fox doesn't turn
[18:37] Speaker 1: his ankle, they do win the title. And that margin
[18:40] Speaker 1: for error could be even greater this year. as they
[18:42] Speaker 1: experience internal improvement from each of those guys that I mentioned.
[18:46] Speaker 1: So that's why, you know, the main thing I'm watching
[18:48] Speaker 1: with the Spurs here in the first chunk of the
[18:50] Speaker 1: season is just their internal improvement. How do each of
[18:53] Speaker 1: their young players look in those problem areas that showed
[18:56] Speaker 1: in the postseason last year? I need to tell you
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[20:12] Speaker 1: All right, the Houston Rockets. Not a lot of change here,
[20:15] Speaker 1: so not too much to get into. They lost Dorian Finney-Smith,
[20:17] Speaker 1: Jeff Green, Aaron Holiday, and Josh Okogie. They added Bogdan
[20:21] Speaker 1: Bogdanovich and Marcus Smart. And then obviously they'll be getting
[20:24] Speaker 1: Fred Van Vliet and Steven Adams back from injury. I
[20:27] Speaker 1: have weird feelings about this team. On the one hand,
[20:30] Speaker 1: I'm basically out on their young core. Not that I
[20:33] Speaker 1: don't think each individual player has something to be intrigued
[20:37] Speaker 1: about for one reason or another, right? Like Shane Goon's
[20:40] Speaker 1: combination of power play underneath the basket, pretty solid playmaking and, and,
[20:45] Speaker 1: and just, you know, like his ability to kind of
[20:48] Speaker 1: show flashes of that high level post shot creating engine.
[20:53] Speaker 1: There's some intrigue there. Obviously a men Thompson brings you
[20:56] Speaker 1: that combination of one of the best perimeter defenders in
[20:59] Speaker 1: the NBA. legitimate verticals, legitimate vertical spacing from the two spot,
[21:04] Speaker 1: the dribble drives that we saw from him that were
[21:06] Speaker 1: so interesting last year. There's a lot of potential there
[21:09] Speaker 1: with him. Jabari Smith, his ability to rebound is reliable
[21:13] Speaker 1: shooting for a team that doesn't have reliable shooting. Reed Shepard, obviously,
[21:17] Speaker 1: I think he's still got a couple years to go,
[21:20] Speaker 1: but as kind of turned around for me, at least
[21:22] Speaker 1: in somebody that I think has legitimate upside as a
[21:25] Speaker 1: starting point guard in this league. It's just that I
[21:27] Speaker 1: don't think any of them are nearly good enough to
[21:31] Speaker 1: keep up with the other young cores in the West.
[21:34] Speaker 1: It's not, do I think the Rockets young players are good?
[21:37] Speaker 1: It's do I think they're good enough? When you look
[21:39] Speaker 1: around the West and it's like, I've got Steph Castle,
[21:41] Speaker 1: Dylan Harper, and Victor Weminyama in San Antonio. Every single
[21:44] Speaker 1: one of those three guys is better than every single
[21:47] Speaker 1: one of the Rockets young players. You would take Dylan
[21:50] Speaker 1: Harper over Shangoon Thompson, Jabari Smith, or Reed Shepard. You
[21:53] Speaker 1: just would. And he's the third best guy in San
[21:56] Speaker 1: Antonio right now. Like that, that's, that's the problem. And
[21:59] Speaker 1: then the same, I mean, they're a little bit further along,
[22:01] Speaker 1: but same could be said about Shay Chet and J-Dub.
[22:03] Speaker 1: Like it's more just how they stack up. But on
[22:06] Speaker 1: the other hand, it's not just a young core. They
[22:09] Speaker 1: also have Kevin Durant. I know that Kevin Durant catches
[22:14] Speaker 1: a lot of shit online, and we're going to say
[22:16] Speaker 1: similar things about Kyrie Irving when we get to the Mavericks,
[22:18] Speaker 1: but I just think Kevin Durant's really good. Do I
[22:20] Speaker 1: think that he can be the best player on a
[22:22] Speaker 1: team when he's the sole ball handler? No, I don't
[22:24] Speaker 1: think that fits his skill set. But what he brings
[22:28] Speaker 1: to the table when you can get the ball out
[22:30] Speaker 1: of his hands and turn him into that traditional Kevin
[22:32] Speaker 1: Durant kind of off-ball scoring weapon... He's just incredible, right?
[22:36] Speaker 1: And then there's the return of a legitimate point guard.
[22:39] Speaker 1: And my opinion surrounding the point guard thing has changed
[22:42] Speaker 1: a lot in the last couple of years, some from
[22:44] Speaker 1: my personal experience of playing the game, but also just
[22:47] Speaker 1: from what I've watched with specific teams around the league.
[22:51] Speaker 1: If you would have asked me three years ago, like,
[22:54] Speaker 1: do you think that this team needs a point guard?
[22:56] Speaker 1: I would have said no, because like, I just think basketball,
[23:00] Speaker 1: I at the time was thinking, you know, basketball has
[23:02] Speaker 1: shifted in this positionless direction. what you really need is
[23:06] Speaker 1: just guys who can create shots and then everyone can
[23:08] Speaker 1: play off of it. So I would have been like, well,
[23:09] Speaker 1: they have Kevin Durant and Alper and Shane Goon. That's
[23:12] Speaker 1: enough shot creation, right? They should be able to figure
[23:14] Speaker 1: it out. That's what I would have thought a couple
[23:17] Speaker 1: of years ago. That has evolved a little bit to
[23:21] Speaker 1: be more of a team-wide kind of interpretation of what
[23:25] Speaker 1: the aggregate ball handling, aggregate basketball IQ, aggregate shot creation
[23:30] Speaker 1: talent on the team looks like. So, for example, do
[23:33] Speaker 1: I think it's possible for a Kevin Durant, Alper, and
[23:36] Speaker 1: Shang-Goon team to be a really high-level offense without a
[23:39] Speaker 1: point guard? Yes, but only if the other three guys
[23:43] Speaker 1: on the floor have enough aggregate ball handling IQ and
[23:46] Speaker 1: play-finishing ability to complement those two. What I think became
[23:51] Speaker 1: a problem for the Rockets last year was this like
[23:54] Speaker 1: failure to meet the mandatory minimum of checking those boxes
[23:59] Speaker 1: on offense, right? Like Kevin Durant and Alperen Changun did
[24:02] Speaker 1: bring shot creation, but not refined enough, particularly with taking
[24:07] Speaker 1: care of the basketball. to allow for them to overcome
[24:11] Speaker 1: the shortcomings of the rest of the group, which as
[24:14] Speaker 1: a group, they were bad with spacing concepts, often standing
[24:17] Speaker 1: in the wrong spots. They were bad with decision-making often
[24:21] Speaker 1: making poor decisions when they would catch the ball off
[24:24] Speaker 1: the ball. And then three, just a complete and utter
[24:26] Speaker 1: lack of jump shooting talent. So like those things combined
[24:30] Speaker 1: with the Kevin Durant, Alper and Shane Goon shortcomings made
[24:33] Speaker 1: them fail to reach the mandatory minimum. You need to
[24:36] Speaker 1: have a coherent offense and, in the post season. In
[24:39] Speaker 1: other words, I don't think every team needs a legitimate
[24:44] Speaker 1: traditional point guard, but I do think some teams in
[24:48] Speaker 1: this rockets team, as an example, does need a point
[24:52] Speaker 1: guard and that that's where my opinion has just changed
[24:56] Speaker 1: from where it was a couple years ago I'm fully
[24:58] Speaker 1: aware that I have been in the past on the
[25:01] Speaker 1: record that I don't think this team needs a point
[25:03] Speaker 1: guard I was wrong they do need a point guard
[25:06] Speaker 1: and like what it really comes down to is slotting
[25:10] Speaker 1: properly with everyone else on the floor So if it's
[25:14] Speaker 1: Kevin Durant and Alper and Shangoon's responsibility to get the
[25:18] Speaker 1: ball up the floor and get the team into their offense,
[25:21] Speaker 1: essentially to be the advantage creators, it keeps the other
[25:25] Speaker 1: players on the floor in these play finishing responsibilities where
[25:29] Speaker 1: they struggle. But let's say Fred Van Vliet brings the
[25:33] Speaker 1: ball up the floor and handles the ball pressure and
[25:36] Speaker 1: gets the team into their sets. From there, now all
[25:39] Speaker 1: of a sudden, one of those off-ball guys is Kevin Durant,
[25:43] Speaker 1: who is an outstanding jump shooter, an outstanding decision-maker play finisher,
[25:48] Speaker 1: an outstanding overall off-ball offensive skill, offensive IQ player. It
[25:55] Speaker 1: turns Shang-Goon from a guy that has to create on
[25:58] Speaker 1: 30 to 40 possessions in a game to 15 to
[26:01] Speaker 1: 25 possessions in a game. It just slots everybody in
[26:06] Speaker 1: a position where everybody's job becomes that much more achievable.
[26:11] Speaker 1: I do think that Fred Van Vliet, even though we
[26:14] Speaker 1: may not view him as that good of a basketball
[26:16] Speaker 1: player in a vacuum, is going to be deeply valuable
[26:20] Speaker 1: to this particular Rockets team. I'd say the same thing
[26:22] Speaker 1: about Bogdan Bogdanovich and Marcus Smart. Just like... bringing those
[26:25] Speaker 1: guys in, it increases in every lineup. Now you will
[26:30] Speaker 1: have by virtue of, instead of Reed Shepard being your
[26:33] Speaker 1: best ball handling perimeter player, not named Kevin Durant. Now
[26:37] Speaker 1: it's Bogdan Bogdanovich and Fred Van Vliet, and then Reed
[26:41] Speaker 1: Shepard and maybe read, maybe read a clear as Bogdan,
[26:44] Speaker 1: but that position group has substantially more talent, which means
[26:48] Speaker 1: more often Shangoon and KD will be playing in the
[26:51] Speaker 1: flow instead of having to initiate everything. And more lineups
[26:56] Speaker 1: will have more aggregate IQ and talent off the ball.
[27:00] Speaker 1: More possessions where it's Marcus Smart off the ball, who's
[27:04] Speaker 1: a substantially smarter off-ball player than some of those Rockets
[27:08] Speaker 1: players who were taking those minutes last year. Same thing
[27:11] Speaker 1: with Bogdanovich. KD is going to be slotted into that
[27:13] Speaker 1: role more just in general. I think the plugging in
[27:17] Speaker 1: of Fred Van Vliet to a greater extent, but also
[27:20] Speaker 1: to a lesser extent, Bogdanovich and Marcus smart just puts
[27:23] Speaker 1: everybody into more achievable roles on offense. And, and that's
[27:27] Speaker 1: before we even get to Steven Adams coming back and
[27:30] Speaker 1: bringing the offensive rebound mashing and just winning the possession
[27:33] Speaker 1: battle that became such a huge part of Houston success
[27:36] Speaker 1: in the early part of last season. So like the, Again,
[27:42] Speaker 1: I just think that this is a classic example of
[27:45] Speaker 1: one of the basketball concepts that I've talked about a
[27:47] Speaker 1: lot over the years, which is your value isn't what
[27:50] Speaker 1: it is in a vacuum. Your value is what your
[27:53] Speaker 1: basketball team needs from you and whether or not you
[27:56] Speaker 1: can address those specific needs. And I just think even
[27:59] Speaker 1: though Fred VanVleet, Bogdan Bogdanovich, and Marcus Smart aren't exactly
[28:02] Speaker 1: what you would consider to be super, super high-level NBA players,
[28:06] Speaker 1: they address very specific needs for the Rockets, and I
[28:09] Speaker 1: expect them to help make them better right away as
[28:12] Speaker 1: we go into the season from there. It's about internal improvement.
[28:16] Speaker 1: How much better can Shane goon get in terms of
[28:19] Speaker 1: his consistency as an offensive force? Can a man Thompson
[28:22] Speaker 1: add a reliable jump shot? Uh, both of the Thompson
[28:25] Speaker 1: twins have been working on their jump shot a lot
[28:26] Speaker 1: this off season. I'll be curious to watch both of them.
[28:29] Speaker 1: You know, Jabari Smith, I actually was really impressed by
[28:31] Speaker 1: in that first round series, but there's still room for him, uh,
[28:34] Speaker 1: for improvement in terms of consistency with his jump shot,
[28:36] Speaker 1: maybe some matchup attacking, some reliable shot making from the
[28:39] Speaker 1: mid range, uh, So internal improvement, you add Kevin Durant,
[28:43] Speaker 1: you add a legitimate point guard, you add a couple
[28:45] Speaker 1: of smart veteran players that can help them in their
[28:47] Speaker 1: off-ball production off of their advantage creation. I'm pretty high
[28:53] Speaker 1: on this team. And the West is also weaker than
[28:55] Speaker 1: it was once you get after the top two teams,
[28:58] Speaker 1: at least weaker than it's been in several years. So
[29:00] Speaker 1: if I look at everything combined, I think they're every
[29:02] Speaker 1: bit as capable of going on a run and winning
[29:04] Speaker 1: the title as teams like the Lakers or the Nuggets,
[29:07] Speaker 1: for example. All right, moving on to the Dallas Mavericks.
[29:11] Speaker 1: They lost Marvin Bagley, Chris Middleton, Ryan Nembhard, Clay Thompson,
[29:14] Speaker 1: and Brandon Williams. They added Santi Aldama, Sergio De La Raya,
[29:18] Speaker 1: Merez Johnson, Zachary Risache, and Marcus Sasser. And then obviously
[29:23] Speaker 1: we have the return of Kyrie Irving from his ACL
[29:26] Speaker 1: tear two years ago and a new coach in Dusty
[29:29] Speaker 1: May out of Michigan. The roster is still a bit unbalanced.
[29:32] Speaker 1: Like when you start to look at it by position group,
[29:35] Speaker 1: your centers and forwards, it's just a really deep group.
[29:38] Speaker 1: Like forward, your forward group, yeah. Cooper flag, PJ Washington,
[29:42] Speaker 1: Sante Aldama, Zachary Rissache and more as Johnson should in theory,
[29:46] Speaker 1: all play power forward minutes, right? Like, All five of
[29:50] Speaker 1: those guys would be in the power forward rotation for
[29:52] Speaker 1: any team in the NBA, and you have five of them, right? Centers,
[29:56] Speaker 1: Daniel Gafford, Derek Lively, Moussa Cisse, Morris Johnson, I believe,
[30:01] Speaker 1: will play some center this year, right? So like really,
[30:04] Speaker 1: really deep, unnecessarily deep in that area to the point
[30:08] Speaker 1: where there's some of those guys that would just be
[30:10] Speaker 1: more valuable to someone else than they would be to
[30:12] Speaker 1: you because they just won't play very much, right? Then
[30:15] Speaker 1: when you look at the ball handling guards and wings,
[30:18] Speaker 1: the wing core is not bad. It's not deep, but
[30:20] Speaker 1: it's good players. Like I actually like Max Christie a lot.
[30:23] Speaker 1: Najee Marshall's jump shot can be inconsistent, but he handles
[30:25] Speaker 1: the ball pretty well and can guard Caleb Martin. He
[30:29] Speaker 1: can't shoot the ball, but he's very good as a
[30:31] Speaker 1: transition weapon and he's a good perimeter defender. So it's
[30:34] Speaker 1: a half decent group of wings. It's just not very
[30:36] Speaker 1: many of them. Right. And then ball handling, like it's
[30:39] Speaker 1: Kyrie Irving, who again, like Kyrie Irving gets a bad rap.
[30:42] Speaker 1: I'm a big believer in Kyrie Irving. I just think
[30:44] Speaker 1: he's an awesome basketball player. And when you have that
[30:46] Speaker 1: combination of being able to score the basketball efficiently while
[30:49] Speaker 1: also taking care of the basketball without turning it over.
[30:51] Speaker 1: that provides a lot of offensive value, a lot of
[30:53] Speaker 1: big-picture value for a basketball team. But from there, it's
[30:56] Speaker 1: a big drop-off. I actually really like Marcus Sasser. I
[30:59] Speaker 1: think Marcus Sasser is, you know, if he's my third-best
[31:02] Speaker 1: guard on the team, I like him a lot as
[31:04] Speaker 1: a guy that can defend on the perimeter, can shoot
[31:06] Speaker 1: a little bit, can generate dribble penetration. Big Marcus Sasser fan,
[31:09] Speaker 1: but he's your second-best guard. And then Sergio de la Rea,
[31:12] Speaker 1: he had a little bit of a rough start in Vegas,
[31:14] Speaker 1: but I thought he showed a lot of that high-level
[31:17] Speaker 1: playmaking and ball handling in the later portions of summer league.
[31:20] Speaker 1: And you know, I think there's real potential there, but
[31:22] Speaker 1: he's a rookie, right? So like, it's just, it's a
[31:25] Speaker 1: really thin group of ball handling guards and a really
[31:27] Speaker 1: thin group of wings and then an unnecessarily deep group
[31:30] Speaker 1: of forwards and centers. And that's why I think inevitably
[31:33] Speaker 1: this has to end with trades. And when you start
[31:36] Speaker 1: to look around, there's obviously two directions you go. PJ Washington,
[31:41] Speaker 1: I believe, probably needs to be traded this season as
[31:44] Speaker 1: a player that will actually be able to help somebody else.
[31:46] Speaker 1: But that doesn't really make sense for the big picture
[31:48] Speaker 1: goals that this team has. And then at the center position,
[31:51] Speaker 1: it really comes down to whether or not Derek Lively's
[31:53] Speaker 1: injuries are substantial. Like if Derek Lively is able to
[31:56] Speaker 1: make a return and is able to stay on the
[31:58] Speaker 1: team or stay on the floor, and looks healthy and
[32:01] Speaker 1: strong around the deadline, I think you have to consider
[32:03] Speaker 1: moving Daniel Gafford. Obviously, if Derek Lively continues to be hurt,
[32:09] Speaker 1: then you just simply need to keep Gafford for depth.
[32:11] Speaker 1: But at the very least, I think PJ Washington, in
[32:14] Speaker 1: an exchange for a team that, if there's a team
[32:17] Speaker 1: out there that has too much ball handling, but that
[32:19] Speaker 1: could use some depth that forward, I think that's the
[32:22] Speaker 1: kind of trade that would make a lot of sense
[32:24] Speaker 1: for this Mavericks team. But just having Kyrie Irving back
[32:28] Speaker 1: goes so far to take pressure off of Cooper Flagg
[32:31] Speaker 1: handling the ball. Like last year, it was a steady
[32:33] Speaker 1: diet of Ryan Nembhard and Brandon Williams as the additional
[32:38] Speaker 1: ball handling off of Cooper Flagg. And Kyrie is just
[32:41] Speaker 1: a massive, massive upgrade from those two guys. When him
[32:45] Speaker 1: and Cooper are healthy, I actually expect this team to
[32:47] Speaker 1: be feisty and to win games. They have shot blocking.
[32:51] Speaker 1: They have good, strong perimeter defense. Cooper is a great
[32:54] Speaker 1: defensive player. And when you add in Kyrie Irving, again,
[32:57] Speaker 1: who I said, as I said, I really believe in
[33:00] Speaker 1: as a shot creating guard in this league alongside Cooper,
[33:03] Speaker 1: who I believe I put him in my top 25
[33:05] Speaker 1: this year. I think he's going to take a significant
[33:07] Speaker 1: leap this season. I expect continued improvement with his pull-up
[33:10] Speaker 1: jump shot while also an easing on his shot selection. I, I,
[33:13] Speaker 1: I just, I think Cooper's going to be awesome this year.
[33:16] Speaker 1: You add two legitimate shot creators, strong defensive talent, good
[33:21] Speaker 1: play finishing. Like, you know, again, like Max, Chrissy can
[33:23] Speaker 1: really shoot the ball. Najee Marshall can dribble the ball
[33:26] Speaker 1: pretty well. Like PJ Washington is a good play finisher
[33:28] Speaker 1: at the four when he steps into the game. Morris
[33:31] Speaker 1: Johnson might have some potential as a stretch five for
[33:33] Speaker 1: this group. Like they've got enough role player talent around
[33:36] Speaker 1: them that can do the surrounding jobs that I think
[33:38] Speaker 1: that they're going to be pretty good when they're fully healthy.
[33:42] Speaker 1: And like we talked about, that forward center rotation is
[33:44] Speaker 1: stacked with talent. Although Dusty may will have some challenges
[33:48] Speaker 1: in terms of actually piecing together a rotation. Lack of
[33:51] Speaker 1: ball handling is still the team's curse, though. I think
[33:53] Speaker 1: against the best teams, like we talked about stacking drives,
[33:56] Speaker 1: when the best defenses find a way to get the
[33:59] Speaker 1: ball out of Kyrie's hands, to get the ball out
[34:01] Speaker 1: of Cooper Flagg's hands, do they have enough aggregate ball
[34:04] Speaker 1: handling on the floor to really break defenses down? I'm
[34:08] Speaker 1: not sure, right? Cooper Flagg also, even though a big
[34:11] Speaker 1: believer in his long-term potential, has some holes in his
[34:15] Speaker 1: game that elite defenses will take advantage of in terms
[34:17] Speaker 1: of going under screens and really trying to bait him
[34:19] Speaker 1: into some of his weak points as a pull-up shooter.
[34:22] Speaker 1: What about when Kyrie Irving has to miss time? If
[34:25] Speaker 1: Kyrie plays 60 games and he misses 22, suddenly Marcus
[34:29] Speaker 1: Sasser is your second-best ball handler. Or you're relying on
[34:32] Speaker 1: a rookie in Sergio de la Rea to handle the
[34:34] Speaker 1: ball quite a bit. And again, I believe in De
[34:37] Speaker 1: La Rea's feel for the game, but there's a lot
[34:39] Speaker 1: of those guys that have strong feel for the game
[34:41] Speaker 1: that step into the NBA and just get physically overwhelmed.
[34:43] Speaker 1: We've got to see if he can handle the athleticism
[34:45] Speaker 1: of this stage. That's why I kind of look at
[34:48] Speaker 1: a balancing trade as necessary. If you could somehow turn P.J. Washington,
[34:51] Speaker 1: and we'll see as we get into the season, we
[34:53] Speaker 1: see what kind of ball handling guards are really available.
[34:56] Speaker 1: But if you can turn P.J. Washington into another reliable
[34:59] Speaker 1: ball handler, I think that goes a long way to
[35:00] Speaker 1: balancing this roster. The Cooper Kyrie fit is another thing
[35:05] Speaker 1: I've got my eye on. Kyrie's 34 years old now.
[35:08] Speaker 1: And the Mavs have four tradable first-round picks. So... If
[35:14] Speaker 1: Kyrie's not the guy, obviously, that is going to be
[35:17] Speaker 1: Cooper's long-term ball handling partner, but he still has some
[35:21] Speaker 1: value now, conventional wisdom would say trade Kyrie. Continue to
[35:26] Speaker 1: add to your trove of first-round picks. If you can
[35:27] Speaker 1: get a first or two firsts for Kyrie, that'd be amazing.
[35:30] Speaker 1: There's going to be a team out there that would
[35:32] Speaker 1: value Kyrie as a secondary ball handler. You become worse
[35:37] Speaker 1: in the short term. but you have the assets necessary
[35:42] Speaker 1: to go make a move on whoever you think is
[35:43] Speaker 1: going to be the number two next to Cooper Flagg long-term, right?
[35:47] Speaker 1: But the flip side of that is you don't want
[35:50] Speaker 1: to stunt the development of this team, especially when they've
[35:53] Speaker 1: got a lot of talent in-house. It'd be great if
[35:56] Speaker 1: the Mavs could be good right away in playing some
[35:59] Speaker 1: meaningful basketball games. So keeping Kyrie as your stopgap, you
[36:04] Speaker 1: still have four tradable firsts, You still have the ability
[36:07] Speaker 1: to move on a star in the future. You lose
[36:09] Speaker 1: out on Kyrie's value because when Kyrie's 36, he won't
[36:12] Speaker 1: be worth anything. But at 34, he has more value.
[36:15] Speaker 1: So that's the complicated part of the decision. But if
[36:18] Speaker 1: you keep Kyrie for a couple of years, you can
[36:21] Speaker 1: have a strong roster that can compete and put Cooper
[36:26] Speaker 1: Flagg and those young players into meaningful basketball in the
[36:29] Speaker 1: short term while still having the draft capital to make
[36:32] Speaker 1: a move on a long-term partner for Cooper Flagg. When
[36:35] Speaker 1: that opportunity arises, that's a tough decision to make because Kyrie, again,
[36:39] Speaker 1: I do think is worth at least a first round
[36:41] Speaker 1: pick right now, if you were to move him. So,
[36:43] Speaker 1: so much about this season is going to be about
[36:45] Speaker 1: the Cooper Kyrie fit. If we get into October, November,
[36:49] Speaker 1: and you're like, man, these two are awesome together. Then
[36:52] Speaker 1: that answers your question. You keep Kyrie, you keep him,
[36:56] Speaker 1: let him, let him not necessarily finish his career, but
[36:58] Speaker 1: finish his prime playing in Dallas. You're good in the
[37:02] Speaker 1: short term. You still have your tradable first to move
[37:04] Speaker 1: when the right guy shows up as a long-term partner. Right.
[37:07] Speaker 1: But if you get to mid November and it's like, man,
[37:09] Speaker 1: the Kyrie Cooper thing is kind of clunky. Our team
[37:12] Speaker 1: isn't very good. It's not like with Kyrie, we're a
[37:14] Speaker 1: playoff team anyway. That's where it becomes like, okay, when
[37:17] Speaker 1: we get to February, let's move Kyrie. Let's capitalize on
[37:20] Speaker 1: his value. We're going to be bad anyway. We might
[37:23] Speaker 1: as well be bad while we're trying to build towards
[37:25] Speaker 1: the future version of the team. So all eyes on
[37:27] Speaker 1: that Cooper Kyrie fit in the early chunk of the season.
[37:31] Speaker 1: I think my prediction is that they're going to be
[37:33] Speaker 1: awesome together. And if that's the case, I would go
[37:37] Speaker 1: that first route, which is ride things out with Kyrie
[37:40] Speaker 1: in his late prime. You still have plenty of tradable
[37:42] Speaker 1: firsts to make a move for a star when the
[37:43] Speaker 1: opportunity arises. You get to be good in the short
[37:46] Speaker 1: term while also having a long-term plan. Other things to
[37:49] Speaker 1: keep an eye on for the Mavs. Does Morais Johnson
[37:52] Speaker 1: have real potential as a spacing five? I've been talking
[37:54] Speaker 1: a lot about this concept with Carl Anthony Towns. I
[37:57] Speaker 1: think the ability, especially out in the West, when you
[37:59] Speaker 1: got to deal with Chet Holmgren and Victor Weminyama and
[38:02] Speaker 1: Walker Kessler and Jaron Jackson and all these shot-blocking talents...
[38:06] Speaker 1: it would be really helpful to have a five that
[38:08] Speaker 1: can really space teams out, right? And Carl Anthony Towns'
[38:12] Speaker 1: legitimate ability as a spacing five was a huge part
[38:15] Speaker 1: of what made the Knicks great. So there's a lot
[38:17] Speaker 1: that comes with being a real spacing five, and it's
[38:19] Speaker 1: not just shooting the basketball. You have to shoot the
[38:21] Speaker 1: basketball well enough to actually be guarded. No one cares
[38:24] Speaker 1: if you're making 38% of your threes when they're all
[38:26] Speaker 1: wide open. That's something a defense can live with. It's
[38:29] Speaker 1: can you make 45% of them when you're open and 38%
[38:33] Speaker 1: of them when you're guarded? That becomes the kind of
[38:35] Speaker 1: thing that at high volume, that becomes the kind of
[38:38] Speaker 1: thing that can really drag bigs out of the lane
[38:41] Speaker 1: and clear up space around the rim. But it's deeper
[38:43] Speaker 1: than that. It's defensive. It's can he protect the rim?
[38:47] Speaker 1: Can he be a strong enough defensive rebounder? Is there
[38:50] Speaker 1: a version of this group where more as Johnson can
[38:52] Speaker 1: be a starting five in the long run in a
[38:55] Speaker 1: legitimate floor spacer? That's a big, you know, he's undersized, right?
[38:58] Speaker 1: So that's a big part of his skill development because
[39:01] Speaker 1: if he's more of just like a four man who
[39:03] Speaker 1: can be a backup five that has more limitations for
[39:06] Speaker 1: the long-term potential of Dallas's best lineups. Derek Lively's health.
[39:11] Speaker 1: When he's healthy, he's an outstanding rim protector who can
[39:14] Speaker 1: also switch out onto the perimeter and is a great
[39:16] Speaker 1: vertical spacer. He's a very, very good big in this
[39:18] Speaker 1: league when he's healthy. Let's see if he can actually
[39:20] Speaker 1: get back onto the floor. And then can they find
[39:23] Speaker 1: any sort of revival for Zachary Rizashe? He gets a
[39:25] Speaker 1: lot of shit for being kind of like, you know,
[39:28] Speaker 1: the way I've seen it described. is like he doesn't
[39:30] Speaker 1: have any wiggle. And what that means is like he
[39:32] Speaker 1: doesn't really have any flow with the basketball that gives
[39:36] Speaker 1: him any ability to be a high level ball handler.
[39:38] Speaker 1: So he's more of a play finishing talent, but his
[39:41] Speaker 1: jump shot can be inconsistent. So it kind of limits him, right?
[39:44] Speaker 1: And so that's why a lot of people are down
[39:46] Speaker 1: on Roussache. Where I think Roussache has a ton of
[39:49] Speaker 1: potential is with a team that likes to run the floor.
[39:52] Speaker 1: And so if Dusty May can get this group to
[39:54] Speaker 1: really lean in on transition, Zachary Roussache is one of
[39:56] Speaker 1: the best players in the league at running the floor
[39:58] Speaker 1: for layups and dunks. And so I wonder if there's
[40:00] Speaker 1: a revival to be found there in Dallas with Zach,
[40:04] Speaker 1: if they can find a defense to transition look. Looking
[40:07] Speaker 1: at the Western Conference, I expect Dallas to be competing
[40:10] Speaker 1: for that 8-9-10 spot. Again, I think the top seven
[40:13] Speaker 1: is clear. Same top six from last year, but I
[40:15] Speaker 1: expect Utah to join that group. 8-9-10 are the spots
[40:19] Speaker 1: that are up for grabs. It's basically Dallas, Phoenix, Portland,
[40:22] Speaker 1: Golden State, the Clippers, and the Grizzlies that I think
[40:24] Speaker 1: will be fighting for those spots. And they have as
[40:26] Speaker 1: good a chance. I don't think there's any of those teams.
[40:28] Speaker 1: When you look at Golden State's injuries, Phoenix got by
[40:31] Speaker 1: a lot on playing hard last year. If they struggle
[40:35] Speaker 1: to recapture that this year, that could cause them to
[40:39] Speaker 1: take a step back. Portland fundamentally altered the structure of
[40:42] Speaker 1: their teams. So who the hell knows what they're going
[40:44] Speaker 1: to look like this season. Golden state could have injury issues.
[40:47] Speaker 1: The Clippers have a talent deficiency. Memphis is young and
[40:50] Speaker 1: doesn't have much ball handling. So I don't really feel
[40:52] Speaker 1: comfortable saying any of those teams are a shoe in
[40:55] Speaker 1: for eight, nine, 10. I think Dallas is absolutely capable
[40:57] Speaker 1: of snatching one of those spots. All right, two more teams.
[41:05] Speaker 1: We're going to move a little bit quicker here. The
[41:07] Speaker 1: Memphis Grizzlies. They lost Santi Aldama, KCP, and John Morant,
[41:10] Speaker 1: as well as some end-of-the-bench guys. They added Cam Boozer.
[41:13] Speaker 1: Kareem Lopez later in the first round. He's kind of
[41:15] Speaker 1: a big, skilled forward who's not a great athlete. Jeremy Grant.
[41:18] Speaker 1: Jordan Hawkins, a shooter who played for the Pelicans. And
[41:21] Speaker 1: Quentin Post, a stretch five who played with the Golden
[41:23] Speaker 1: State Warriors. And Isaiah Stewart, one of the bruisers from
[41:26] Speaker 1: the Detroit Pistons over the last couple of years. The
[41:29] Speaker 1: first thing I think about when I think about this
[41:31] Speaker 1: year's Grizzlies team is size. This group is going to
[41:34] Speaker 1: be absolutely massive on the front line and is going
[41:36] Speaker 1: to try to bully teams night in and night out
[41:39] Speaker 1: in the regular season. Zach Eady played in only 11
[41:42] Speaker 1: games last year, but he looked really good when he played.
[41:44] Speaker 1: He averaged 19 points and 16 rebounds per 36 minutes
[41:48] Speaker 1: to go with 2.7 blocks per For 36 minutes, the
[41:51] Speaker 1: Grizzlies pulverized teams when he was out there. They were
[41:53] Speaker 1: plus 20 points per 100 possessions and 590 possessions with
[41:57] Speaker 1: him on the floor with a 95 defensive rating, according
[42:00] Speaker 1: to Cleaning the Glass. So Zach Eady, obviously, it's a
[42:03] Speaker 1: small sample size, so you don't want to overreact, but
[42:05] Speaker 1: if he's healthy, they play really well, and he brings
[42:08] Speaker 1: a physical dominance to the position. Cam Boozer is just
[42:11] Speaker 1: NBA ready. He's the most NBA ready of any of
[42:13] Speaker 1: the top four guys. He's pretty good at everything. He's
[42:16] Speaker 1: a legit jump shooting talent. He was 41% on catch
[42:18] Speaker 1: and shoot threes last year at Duke 37% on off
[42:21] Speaker 1: the dribble threes. We saw some of that high level
[42:24] Speaker 1: pull up shooting in Vegas as well. He's a very
[42:26] Speaker 1: efficient shot creator in a variety of ways. He can
[42:29] Speaker 1: run pick and roll like inverted ball screens with guards
[42:31] Speaker 1: screening firm, something he was very good at at Duke.
[42:34] Speaker 1: And I expect him to be good at right away.
[42:36] Speaker 1: in the NBA, very good power player through size mismatches.
[42:39] Speaker 1: I don't really like him as a post player against
[42:41] Speaker 1: NBA bigs and forwards, but I think when he gets
[42:44] Speaker 1: favorable size mismatches, he's actually a very good post player.
[42:48] Speaker 1: That's exciting alongside Zach Eady, because if you can play
[42:50] Speaker 1: alongside Eady, if that group can be good enough defensively,
[42:53] Speaker 1: he's going to get a lot of smaller players as
[42:56] Speaker 1: they send their bigger bodies towards Zach Eady. That could
[42:59] Speaker 1: give him the size matchups that he can overpower and
[43:01] Speaker 1: be successful with attacking through the post. He also has
[43:05] Speaker 1: a budding face-up game because he's a good jump shooter.
[43:08] Speaker 1: So he's a good pull-up jump shot off of jab
[43:10] Speaker 1: steps and off of little step backs, something that's made
[43:12] Speaker 1: him actually a pretty efficient ISO player as well. He's
[43:15] Speaker 1: also a very fundamentally sound defender. The athletic limitations are real,
[43:20] Speaker 1: and he'll get blown by sometimes. But much of the time,
[43:23] Speaker 1: he just understands the scheme, gets in the right spots,
[43:27] Speaker 1: takes good angles, and he's a great defensive rebounder. So
[43:29] Speaker 1: I actually think he's going to be a solid defensive
[43:31] Speaker 1: player in the NBA right away. And then Isaiah Stewart,
[43:34] Speaker 1: he's undersized for a big, but he rebounds well despite that.
[43:38] Speaker 1: He averaged 10 rebounds per 36 in his career, and
[43:40] Speaker 1: he's a very good offensive rebounder. And he's butted into
[43:43] Speaker 1: a solid shot-blocking talent in recent years. He's averaged two
[43:45] Speaker 1: and a half block shots per 36 over his last
[43:48] Speaker 1: two seasons in Detroit. No one's going to look forward
[43:51] Speaker 1: to playing that Grizzlies front line. It's going to be
[43:53] Speaker 1: a pain in the ass. Ball handling's a bit tricky. Like,
[43:57] Speaker 1: I think Ty Jerome's really good. He had 1.17 points
[44:01] Speaker 1: per pick and roll last year, including passes on 230 reps.
[44:03] Speaker 1: He's just very, very good at beating drop coverage, but
[44:07] Speaker 1: he's the best ball handler on the team. And after that,
[44:09] Speaker 1: it gets to a group of pretty young and flawed guys,
[44:11] Speaker 1: guys like Scotty Pippen, Jr. Walter Clayton, Cam Spencer, et cetera. Right.
[44:16] Speaker 1: So now they will be playing through the post a lot.
[44:18] Speaker 1: Like I think Zach Eady and Cam K boozer are
[44:20] Speaker 1: going to be creating a lot of shots out of
[44:22] Speaker 1: the post, but there's definitely a little bit of a
[44:23] Speaker 1: ball handling deficiency there. That said, I think Memphis is
[44:27] Speaker 1: well coached. I think they're super well run from the organization.
[44:30] Speaker 1: Top down. They have a strong basketball culture. They're young.
[44:34] Speaker 1: Everyone's going to play super hard. A lot of really
[44:36] Speaker 1: smart players, even though the roster is unbalanced, I think
[44:39] Speaker 1: they're going to be a pain in the ass to
[44:40] Speaker 1: beat on any given night. And again, like I mentioned
[44:43] Speaker 1: earlier with Dallas, I thoroughly expect Memphis to be in
[44:45] Speaker 1: the mix for the 8, 9, 10 seeds this season.
[44:47] Speaker 1: All right, quickly before we get out of here, the
[44:50] Speaker 1: New Orleans Pelicans. They lost Jordan Hawkins and Kevon Looney
[44:53] Speaker 1: and some deep bench talent. They added Ben Matherin, Trenton Watford,
[44:57] Speaker 1: and some new deep bench talent. So the Pelicans are
[45:00] Speaker 1: basically running it back again with the same incredibly mediocre
[45:03] Speaker 1: group that's been disappointing year in and year out. in
[45:07] Speaker 1: these last couple of years. The only real changes are
[45:10] Speaker 1: the addition of Ben Matherin, and then you're going to
[45:11] Speaker 1: get a full season of DeJounte Murray, who looks pretty
[45:13] Speaker 1: solid towards the tail end of last season coming back
[45:16] Speaker 1: from his Achilles tear. The entire construct of the New
[45:20] Speaker 1: Orleans Pelicans is broken because each of their core players,
[45:23] Speaker 1: while enticing individually... has a massive flaw that the rest
[45:28] Speaker 1: of the roster can't cover for. So for example, like
[45:31] Speaker 1: Zion Williamson is a brilliant shot creator in this league
[45:34] Speaker 1: who can really generate a ton of rim pressure, brings
[45:36] Speaker 1: playmaking to counter it. A lot of upside there. But
[45:39] Speaker 1: he can't defend or rebound to save his life, and
[45:41] Speaker 1: he also can't shoot. So he basically needs to play
[45:44] Speaker 1: alongside a center who can cover for those deficiencies And
[45:48] Speaker 1: that's just really hard to find around the league. And
[45:50] Speaker 1: the other best center on the team is Derek queen.
[45:53] Speaker 1: And those guys have too many overlapping flaws to play
[45:55] Speaker 1: alongside each other. Trey Murphy, outstanding basketball player, such a
[46:01] Speaker 1: great shooter is shown real high level. Close that attacking
[46:03] Speaker 1: is improved defensively, but he struggles with high level self-creation
[46:08] Speaker 1: and the team doesn't have enough quality creation to constantly
[46:11] Speaker 1: allow him to play off of advantage. Herb Jones, one
[46:15] Speaker 1: of the best defensive wings in the league, but he
[46:17] Speaker 1: can't shoot. And the team around him doesn't have enough
[46:22] Speaker 1: shooting to compensate for his inability to shoot. That's really
[46:26] Speaker 1: the curse of the Pelicans. Their core four players... are
[46:30] Speaker 1: all tantalizing for different reasons, but they're terrible fits with
[46:34] Speaker 1: each other because their flaws overlap. So they can't actually
[46:38] Speaker 1: help compensate for each other's weaknesses, which is why they
[46:41] Speaker 1: keep underachieving relative to their on-paper talent every year. Where
[46:45] Speaker 1: do you go from here? And I was hoping they
[46:47] Speaker 1: would have figured this out this offseason, but each of
[46:50] Speaker 1: their core four guys would actually be more valuable to
[46:52] Speaker 1: someone else than they would be to them. And that
[46:56] Speaker 1: puts them in a really tough spot. And so what
[46:59] Speaker 1: I would do is I'd pick a couple of them
[47:01] Speaker 1: and I would trade the other two in an attempt
[47:03] Speaker 1: to make a roster that is more complimentary to the
[47:06] Speaker 1: two that you're keeping. So for instance, like I would
[47:09] Speaker 1: trade Trey Murphy for starters, a couple of reasons. One,
[47:13] Speaker 1: he's got the most value out of every, I think
[47:15] Speaker 1: you could actually move Trey Murphy and get multiple first
[47:17] Speaker 1: round picks, right? Because his skillset is deeply valuable to
[47:21] Speaker 1: some of the other teams around the league, right? If
[47:24] Speaker 1: you trade Trey Murphy, it gives you the assets with
[47:27] Speaker 1: which to make moves that can improve the build around
[47:31] Speaker 1: the core players you keep. Herb Jones, I think there's
[47:34] Speaker 1: some potential for positive regression as a three-point shooter, and
[47:38] Speaker 1: he just plays such an important role on any sort
[47:40] Speaker 1: of defense. And because his value as of right now
[47:43] Speaker 1: is relatively low because he shot like shit last year
[47:45] Speaker 1: and he's had health issues, he's the one I'd keep.
[47:48] Speaker 1: you move Trey Murphy, and then you pick one of
[47:51] Speaker 1: the two bigs. If it's Derek Queen that you want
[47:52] Speaker 1: to keep, or if it's Zion Williams and that you
[47:54] Speaker 1: want to keep, whatever it is, move the other one.
[47:57] Speaker 1: You have the ability then to, let's say the build
[47:59] Speaker 1: is around Zion and Herb Jones, you have the ability
[48:04] Speaker 1: to target players that can actually make their life easier
[48:07] Speaker 1: by compensating for their flaws, right? bringing in a really
[48:11] Speaker 1: high level three and D talent alongside her Jones. So
[48:15] Speaker 1: the jump shooting thing doesn't reach critical mass, getting a big,
[48:19] Speaker 1: that can a high level, big, that can actually make
[48:22] Speaker 1: Zion's life easier on the front line. Like that, that's
[48:25] Speaker 1: where this right now it's, it's really weird. Cause it's
[48:28] Speaker 1: four really good players that I really like, but they
[48:31] Speaker 1: just don't fit with each other because their flaws overlap.
[48:35] Speaker 1: and it puts them in an awkward situation where they
[48:37] Speaker 1: kind of have to pivot. I thought they would do
[48:39] Speaker 1: it last season or maybe even the season before, and
[48:41] Speaker 1: they just keep refusing to do so. Maybe this will
[48:43] Speaker 1: be the year where the Pelicans eventually decide to do that.
[48:45] Speaker 1: All right, guys, that's all I have for today. As always,
[48:48] Speaker 1: I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting
[48:50] Speaker 1: the show. Our first preseason games start this weekend. Monday
[48:54] Speaker 1: will be our first set of game reactions. I will
[48:56] Speaker 1: see you guys then.

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