# Thunder still elite, Nuggets & Wolves questions, Blazers & Jazz hype | NBA Northwest Div Predictions

An episode of [Hoops Tonight with Jason Timpf](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1536277916), 23 Sep 2026, 55 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pscrb.fm/rss/p/clrtpod.com/m/arttrk.com/p/D5CA5/prfx.byspotify.com/e/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/90447913-4e20-4e90-aa1e-ae510011dd1d/1f5e9bf4-18df-4a12-9dc2-b4cc01175fd7/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=9e36bb2c-2512-48e1-92f8-ae510011dd2b

Jason previews and makes his predictions for the NBA's Northwest Division. He breaks down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the OKC Thunder, Nikola Jokic and Denver Nuggets, Anthony Edwards and Minnesota Timberwolves, Damian Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers, and Lauri Markkanen and the Utah Jazz. Join polymarket: https://app.polymarket.us/S8ac/HOOPSTONIGHT 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an indepdent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization. #Volume See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:01] Speaker 1: The Volume. Alright, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at The Volume.
[0:17] Speaker 1: Happy Wednesday, everybody. Hope all of you guys are having
[0:19] Speaker 1: an incredible week. We are continuing our season preview series
[0:25] Speaker 1: with the Northwest Division today. I think this is the
[0:28] Speaker 1: second best division in in the NBA after the Atlantic
[0:30] Speaker 1: Division that we hit on Monday. We'll be breaking down
[0:33] Speaker 1: all five teams to various extents. You guys know the drill.
[0:36] Speaker 1: Before we get started, subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube
[0:37] Speaker 1: channel so you don't miss any more of our videos.
[0:40] Speaker 1: We officially need less than 6,000 more subs to get
[0:42] Speaker 1: to our goal of 150,000, but it would help us
[0:45] Speaker 1: a lot if you would take a second to scroll down.
[0:47] Speaker 1: and hit that subscribe button. If you're already subscribed, like
[0:49] Speaker 1: this video, sign up for post notifications, and then no
[0:53] Speaker 1: mailbag this week or next week, but starting that first
[0:55] Speaker 1: week of October, we will be back into our mailbags
[0:57] Speaker 1: on Friday. So if you guys have any questions, drop
[1:00] Speaker 1: them into the chat underneath this video. Mailbag, colon, write
[1:04] Speaker 1: your question. And we'll get to it on our Friday
[1:06] Speaker 1: mailbags throughout the rest of the season. All right, let's
[1:09] Speaker 1: talk some basketball. So first team we're going to hit again.
[1:11] Speaker 1: These are not in any particular order. We're going to
[1:13] Speaker 1: be doing weekly power rankings this year that effectively function
[1:18] Speaker 1: as contender rankings. So we will constantly be ranking everybody
[1:21] Speaker 1: throughout the season. But for the purpose of this list,
[1:24] Speaker 1: I'm just kind of going through them so that we
[1:26] Speaker 1: can dig into their offseason turnaround, like what kind of
[1:29] Speaker 1: players they lost and added and whatever takes I have.
[1:32] Speaker 1: on what their play style should look like this year. Obviously,
[1:34] Speaker 1: some of these teams are just running back similar cores,
[1:37] Speaker 1: so we won't dwell as long, but then some of
[1:39] Speaker 1: these other teams made substantial changes, especially in this division,
[1:42] Speaker 1: starting with the Oklahoma City Thunder. actually a decent amount
[1:48] Speaker 1: of turnover from last season. They lost Lou door who
[1:50] Speaker 1: started for them, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins, who were
[1:53] Speaker 1: kind of back into the rotation guys, but legitimate rotation guys.
[1:56] Speaker 1: Then they lost some, uh, deep bench guys, guys like
[1:59] Speaker 1: Brandon Carlson, for example, who is now in Portland. They
[2:02] Speaker 1: added two more first round picks a day. Mar out
[2:04] Speaker 1: of Michigan. Didn't love this pick for okay. See, but
[2:07] Speaker 1: they're clearly looking for their eventual heart and stain replacement,
[2:10] Speaker 1: whether it ends up being a day Mara, Tomas Sorber
[2:13] Speaker 1: or someone else, uh, And they still have a couple
[2:14] Speaker 1: more years to figure that out after Hartenstein signed that extension.
[2:19] Speaker 1: They also got Bennett Sturtz out of Iowa, who I
[2:20] Speaker 1: actually think is going to play quite a bit right
[2:22] Speaker 1: away this year. He's just like a real dribble-shoot pass talent.
[2:26] Speaker 1: And that should make the offense a lot easier, both
[2:29] Speaker 1: when Shea's on the floor and when Shea is off
[2:30] Speaker 1: the floor. It's like, you know, we talk all the
[2:32] Speaker 1: time about how your value is unique to your basketball team.
[2:35] Speaker 1: And it's funny how you'll see... you know, playing on
[2:37] Speaker 1: a team with Tyrese maxi, there were times where Jared
[2:40] Speaker 1: McCain felt a little bit marginalized, but then you put
[2:42] Speaker 1: him on a team at okay. See, that is kind
[2:45] Speaker 1: of devoid of that super, super high level jump shooting talent,
[2:49] Speaker 1: especially that can do it off of the move and
[2:51] Speaker 1: off the dribble the way that he can. And suddenly
[2:53] Speaker 1: Jared McCain steps in and looks super important and super
[2:55] Speaker 1: valuable for them. Right. And like, I think Bennett starts
[2:58] Speaker 1: is going to have a similar type of impact. I
[3:00] Speaker 1: think he just is going to come in and on a,
[3:02] Speaker 1: on in lineups that already have a lot of defensive
[3:05] Speaker 1: talent that already have a lot of the things that
[3:07] Speaker 1: can cover for Bennett's weaknesses. His dribble shoot pass talent
[3:11] Speaker 1: is going to be able to really help the team.
[3:12] Speaker 1: So I think he's going to play quite a bit
[3:14] Speaker 1: right away. Other than that, they're basically running it back.
[3:18] Speaker 1: I'm super high on this Thunder team. I haven't made
[3:20] Speaker 1: my preseason championship pick yet that'll effectively function in our
[3:24] Speaker 1: first Power Rankings video, which we'll probably just do a
[3:27] Speaker 1: whole video kind of centered on this idea at some
[3:30] Speaker 1: point during the preseason. At the beginning of the summer,
[3:33] Speaker 1: I was leaning towards San Antonio, and obviously they're still
[3:36] Speaker 1: getting consideration. I haven't made up my mind yet, but
[3:39] Speaker 1: I have found myself over the course of the last
[3:41] Speaker 1: few weeks in particular leaning more and more towards OKC.
[3:45] Speaker 1: as the team that I think has the best chance
[3:47] Speaker 1: to win the title this year. And it's because I
[3:49] Speaker 1: just have such a profound respect for everything about this
[3:53] Speaker 1: basketball team and no team has an easy path. The
[3:56] Speaker 1: East is packed with talent and is arguably the better
[3:59] Speaker 1: conference this year. The West has two, like two teams
[4:02] Speaker 1: that are maybe better than all of them. Like if
[4:05] Speaker 1: you're ranking the championship threats this year, you're probably picking
[4:08] Speaker 1: two West teams first. So, like, no team out there
[4:11] Speaker 1: has a great chance to win or anything resembling that.
[4:14] Speaker 1: Every team, including OKC, including San Antonio, including New York,
[4:18] Speaker 1: they're all somewhat of a long shot. But when circumstances
[4:23] Speaker 1: are super difficult like that, and there are so many
[4:26] Speaker 1: great teams, and the matchups are so complicated, I start
[4:29] Speaker 1: to think about which team is the safest bet. Who
[4:31] Speaker 1: do I trust the most? And that's where OKC is
[4:35] Speaker 1: really starting to win me over in a field full
[4:37] Speaker 1: of flawed teams. I think Dagnalt is an awesome coach,
[4:40] Speaker 1: although I am genuinely curious to see what kind of
[4:42] Speaker 1: variety he adds to the offense this year. We've been
[4:45] Speaker 1: talking a lot about that through the context of Shea.
[4:47] Speaker 1: but I think he plays a big role as well.
[4:49] Speaker 1: We'll talk about that in a minute. They have a
[4:50] Speaker 1: guy in Shea who is as good a case as
[4:52] Speaker 1: anybody to be the best player in the world. I
[4:54] Speaker 1: put him third, and obviously OKC fans were predictably mad
[4:57] Speaker 1: about that, but I very clearly laid out at the
[4:59] Speaker 1: beginning that I basically viewed it as a tie and
[5:02] Speaker 1: there was no separation, and I would have left the
[5:04] Speaker 1: top spot vacant if I could. So I can't sit
[5:06] Speaker 1: here and make truly compelling arguments for or against any
[5:10] Speaker 1: of those top three guys. It's basically a three-way tie,
[5:14] Speaker 1: and OKC has one of those three guys. And they
[5:17] Speaker 1: have a very well-rounded roster. No roster in the league
[5:20] Speaker 1: is perfect. And this roster does have a couple of
[5:22] Speaker 1: weak spots. Like they still have no legitimate power forward
[5:25] Speaker 1: or large physical athlete that can play on the perimeter
[5:29] Speaker 1: that's taller than 6'6. And there's still a light, a
[5:32] Speaker 1: little bit light in ball handling. Although I do think
[5:35] Speaker 1: getting J-Dub back and getting Bennett Sturtz will help there.
[5:38] Speaker 1: But they have a kick-ass top five in Shea, J-Dub, Case,
[5:41] Speaker 1: and Wallace, who should start every game this year. And
[5:43] Speaker 1: then Chet and Isaiah Hartenstein. Caruso is basically a sixth
[5:46] Speaker 1: starter and is probably the second best playoff role player
[5:49] Speaker 1: in the league behind OJ and Anobi, at least among
[5:52] Speaker 1: guys who play on the perimeter. AJ Mitchell struggled against
[5:55] Speaker 1: San Antonio, but that's San Antonio. And we know what
[5:58] Speaker 1: kind of defensive problems they present for everybody. And he
[6:02] Speaker 1: was also clearly a bit banged up with his calf.
[6:05] Speaker 1: I still think he's really, really good. Jay Will has
[6:08] Speaker 1: kind of blossomed into a legitimate stretch five as a
[6:11] Speaker 1: backup big. Jared McCain is a solid skill guard off
[6:14] Speaker 1: the bench. That's still one of, if not the best
[6:17] Speaker 1: top nine in the entire NBA. Now, after that, it
[6:20] Speaker 1: gets a little dicey, but they've got enough first round
[6:23] Speaker 1: talent in the back end of that locker room that
[6:25] Speaker 1: inevitably one or two of those guys will pop into
[6:29] Speaker 1: a rotation level talent and they'll end up being just fine.
[6:33] Speaker 1: And also, and this is one of the biggest reasons
[6:35] Speaker 1: why I'm kind of starting to lean towards OKC this year.
[6:38] Speaker 1: I think last year was a bit of an embarrassing
[6:40] Speaker 1: exit for them. And I like betting on a team
[6:43] Speaker 1: that clearly has a championship level roster, but that also
[6:48] Speaker 1: might have like a chip on their shoulder, like a legitimate,
[6:51] Speaker 1: like we're out to send a message kind of season.
[6:55] Speaker 1: And all three of their core stars should come into
[6:58] Speaker 1: the season pissed off and looking to send a message. Shea,
[7:01] Speaker 1: in 68 games in the regular season, had just nine
[7:05] Speaker 1: games where he shot 40% or worse from the field
[7:09] Speaker 1: because that dude is just a metronome of efficiency. He
[7:12] Speaker 1: had seven such games just in the playoffs, five of
[7:17] Speaker 1: which came against the Spurs, where by any measure, he
[7:21] Speaker 1: put up a super disappointing series for a back-to-back MVP.
[7:26] Speaker 1: I think Shea's going to come into the season as
[7:28] Speaker 1: a better basketball player than he was last year. He's
[7:31] Speaker 1: already one of the most accomplished young guards in the
[7:33] Speaker 1: history of the league, but he's still missing that like
[7:36] Speaker 1: defining playoff moment, a game or a series where he
[7:39] Speaker 1: just kicks ass and takes name and leaves everyone in
[7:43] Speaker 1: awe of how amazing he is. That's not to say
[7:46] Speaker 1: that he has, like he's hit a couple of big shots.
[7:48] Speaker 1: He's had a couple of big scoring games and big spots,
[7:51] Speaker 1: but it's like, it's like a shot here, a shot there,
[7:54] Speaker 1: a high scoring game where he got to the foul
[7:56] Speaker 1: line a ton. There hasn't been the like, you know,
[7:59] Speaker 1: single game where he just lit the world on fire
[8:01] Speaker 1: in a huge pivotal moment or where he went three,
[8:04] Speaker 1: four games in a series where he averaged 35 on
[8:08] Speaker 1: high efficiency and just sent this clear message. He's missing
[8:11] Speaker 1: that piece. And like, I would be genuinely surprised if,
[8:14] Speaker 1: If we don't get that moment from him very soon
[8:17] Speaker 1: and most likely this season, because I know he wants it.
[8:20] Speaker 1: I know he's competitively wired that way. I know he's
[8:23] Speaker 1: smart enough to see the things that he can add
[8:25] Speaker 1: to his game to try to rectify the issues that
[8:27] Speaker 1: he's had. In other words, he's already maybe the best
[8:30] Speaker 1: player in the world. And I think he's going to
[8:32] Speaker 1: have a chip on his shoulder this year. So I'm
[8:34] Speaker 1: just excited to see what Shea has for us. J-Dub,
[8:38] Speaker 1: coming fresh off of a year where he had 40
[8:40] Speaker 1: points in an NBA Finals game, he was basically a
[8:43] Speaker 1: non-factor for the team, completely unable to stay on the floor.
[8:47] Speaker 1: You don't think that guy would like to come into
[8:48] Speaker 1: the season and remind everyone what he's capable of? And
[8:52] Speaker 1: by all accounts, from what I've seen and heard, he's
[8:54] Speaker 1: spent the entire summer trying to transform his body so
[8:57] Speaker 1: that he can avoid having some of the soft tissue
[8:59] Speaker 1: injuries that have plagued him. And then Chet, I mean,
[9:02] Speaker 1: he got flat-out embarrassed in the Western Conference Finals. Literally
[9:06] Speaker 1: no way to sugarcoat it. And on both ends of
[9:08] Speaker 1: the floor, I thought his rim protection was nowhere near
[9:10] Speaker 1: as impactful as it usually is, as he repeatedly lost
[9:14] Speaker 1: battles at the rim to Spurs guards. And then he
[9:16] Speaker 1: was kind of useless both on and off the ball
[9:20] Speaker 1: offensively in that Western Conference final series compared to what
[9:23] Speaker 1: he was in the regular season. Embarrassment is an incredible
[9:26] Speaker 1: motivator for an athlete, and I expect him to be
[9:29] Speaker 1: way better this year. Again, I'm not going to get
[9:31] Speaker 1: into a ton of detail on how each guy can
[9:33] Speaker 1: be better because that's basically what we did in our
[9:34] Speaker 1: player ranking series is all three of those guys were
[9:37] Speaker 1: in the top 25. But I think the Thunder Stars
[9:40] Speaker 1: are going to be on a mission next year. So yeah,
[9:43] Speaker 1: we'll see where I land in the next couple of weeks.
[9:45] Speaker 1: But at this point, I'm leaning towards the Thunder as
[9:48] Speaker 1: my preseason title pick. They have the talent. They have
[9:51] Speaker 1: the experience. Now these dudes have been in some wars together.
[9:54] Speaker 1: They have the continuity. They've been playing together for a
[9:56] Speaker 1: long time. And I also think there's some pressure on them.
[9:58] Speaker 1: Like if they go into the Western conference finals and
[10:01] Speaker 1: lose to San Antonio again and lose the same way,
[10:04] Speaker 1: I think there's a chance Sam Presti makes a significant
[10:07] Speaker 1: tweak to the team's construct. So there's a lot of
[10:10] Speaker 1: factors kind of like pushing towards what should be a
[10:13] Speaker 1: very impressive Oklahoma city thunder season. The only real basketball
[10:18] Speaker 1: thing I want to discuss with them is the offensive
[10:20] Speaker 1: organization piece. We know what OKC basketball looks like on
[10:24] Speaker 1: both ends. There's not a whole lot of new ground
[10:26] Speaker 1: to tread. Like with all of these teams, you know,
[10:28] Speaker 1: the teams that have made bigger changes will spend more
[10:31] Speaker 1: time dwelling on that. My only note for the defenses
[10:34] Speaker 1: is Cason Wallace is he's just fine sliding into that
[10:37] Speaker 1: starting lineup and he'll be great for them in the
[10:40] Speaker 1: large sample. And I think he's a better basketball player
[10:42] Speaker 1: than Lou Dort. But I think they need J-Dub to
[10:45] Speaker 1: stay healthy this year for their defense to hold up
[10:47] Speaker 1: against the best teams. Because if you lose Dort and
[10:51] Speaker 1: you lose J-Dub to injury again, that makes it so
[10:54] Speaker 1: that they are catastrophically small on the perimeter in a
[10:58] Speaker 1: way that would get them beat. Because at that point,
[10:59] Speaker 1: Alex Caruso is the only guy on the roster who
[11:02] Speaker 1: can really guard some of the bigger, stronger perimeter players
[11:05] Speaker 1: in the league. I think getting J-Dub back to 100%,
[11:10] Speaker 1: Having him in the starting lineup to guard the bigger,
[11:12] Speaker 1: stronger perimeter players on the other team, allowing Cason Wallace
[11:15] Speaker 1: to guard the other team's best guard, will help them
[11:18] Speaker 1: kind of stay properly slotted on defense this season. On offense, though,
[11:24] Speaker 1: we talked so much this summer about Shea's lack of
[11:26] Speaker 1: variety and how he can address it with his skill development.
[11:30] Speaker 1: But a big piece of that is actually on Mark Dagnall.
[11:33] Speaker 1: Because as much as Shea can work on his skill set,
[11:36] Speaker 1: it has to be incorporated into the offense. Mark's going
[11:39] Speaker 1: to have to make some tweaks this year to make
[11:41] Speaker 1: sure that life is easier on Shea. My number one
[11:44] Speaker 1: kind of like goal for OKC this season is how
[11:49] Speaker 1: do they get more easy shots for Shea every game?
[11:54] Speaker 1: Instead of the offense being predicated on Shea has these
[11:58] Speaker 1: supreme gifts off the dribble. So let's bet on him
[12:02] Speaker 1: breaking the defense and And then we will rely on
[12:06] Speaker 1: our solid spacing principles to capitalize on it. That's been
[12:10] Speaker 1: the approach. I think it needs to shift more towards
[12:14] Speaker 1: how do we make things easier for Shea so that
[12:17] Speaker 1: he doesn't have to depend on his supreme off the
[12:20] Speaker 1: dribble gifts as often in games. really that comes down
[12:26] Speaker 1: to putting together set actions that get Shea starting from
[12:31] Speaker 1: a position of advantage. Meaning like whether it's him catching
[12:35] Speaker 1: more off the ball coming off of action rather than
[12:38] Speaker 1: dribbling into action. So more like more Chicago, him just
[12:41] Speaker 1: basically coming out of the corner and catching and attacking
[12:44] Speaker 1: rather than having to beat ball pressure up the floor
[12:47] Speaker 1: and set his man up for a ball screen. He
[12:49] Speaker 1: could start in the left corner, work his man down
[12:52] Speaker 1: in the lane a little bit, push him off a
[12:54] Speaker 1: little bit, come off of that first pin down, catch
[12:56] Speaker 1: the dribble handoff and get right downhill into the lane,
[12:59] Speaker 1: have baked in separation from his defender and save the
[13:02] Speaker 1: energy of him having to navigate all that ball pressure.
[13:06] Speaker 1: Another part of this is like, I want to see
[13:08] Speaker 1: him get more clean catch and shoot looks. Like this
[13:11] Speaker 1: is a player that is one of the very best
[13:14] Speaker 1: jump shooters in the league. So how do you get
[13:17] Speaker 1: him more clean looks at jump shots? This is where
[13:20] Speaker 1: I'd like to see more of those like Kevin Durant-esque
[13:23] Speaker 1: like quick off ball actions that get him a catch
[13:26] Speaker 1: and shoot look. So little things like have him start
[13:30] Speaker 1: in the left corner, like you're, uh, you know, running
[13:33] Speaker 1: him as a decoy, but then have him kind of
[13:35] Speaker 1: leak into the middle of the lane, have him set
[13:37] Speaker 1: a back screen for somebody coming off of the elbow
[13:40] Speaker 1: and then quickly off of another screen towards the top
[13:42] Speaker 1: where he can just quick catch and and take an
[13:44] Speaker 1: 18-footer open without having to deal with a bunch of
[13:48] Speaker 1: ball pressure, without having to hit some dribble combination with
[13:51] Speaker 1: complex footwork to get separated. That's not to say that
[13:54] Speaker 1: he's not going to do that stuff. Shea is one
[13:57] Speaker 1: of the best, if not the best, player in the
[13:58] Speaker 1: world because he's so gifted off the dribble. But it's
[14:01] Speaker 1: just like we talked about with Jalen Brunson and the Knicks.
[14:04] Speaker 1: If you can tweak it so that instead of that
[14:06] Speaker 1: being the entirety of your approach... to it being roughly
[14:09] Speaker 1: two-thirds of your approach, and you can generate him easier
[14:12] Speaker 1: offense and your team easier offense by using him more
[14:14] Speaker 1: off the ball, both as a decoy and a screener,
[14:17] Speaker 1: but also getting him catching with an advantage, that could
[14:20] Speaker 1: go a long way to, once again, making it so
[14:23] Speaker 1: that the Thunder can generate more easy shots for Shea
[14:27] Speaker 1: that balance his otherwise pretty difficult shot diet. My prediction...
[14:32] Speaker 1: I guess this team's going to finish with a two
[14:34] Speaker 1: seed this year. There's always a season for like young
[14:38] Speaker 1: up and coming contenders where they run away with the
[14:40] Speaker 1: one seed because they have all this youthful exuberance and
[14:43] Speaker 1: they attack the regular season with a ton of urgency
[14:45] Speaker 1: and all that kind of stuff. We've been talking about
[14:48] Speaker 1: that for years. It's not always a one seed. Sometimes
[14:50] Speaker 1: it's a team that finishes with a two or three seed.
[14:52] Speaker 1: That's like actually the sixth or seventh best playoff team, right?
[14:55] Speaker 1: I think San Antonio this year is going to get
[14:57] Speaker 1: the number one seed, number one overall seed. The Eastern
[15:00] Speaker 1: Conference is going to beat each other up, so no
[15:02] Speaker 1: one's going to get a ton and ton of wins.
[15:04] Speaker 1: San Antonio, I would just be stunned if they didn't
[15:06] Speaker 1: get at least 60 wins and probably quite a few more.
[15:09] Speaker 1: Does that mean OKC can't get the one seed? No,
[15:13] Speaker 1: but I just think it's more likely that they end
[15:15] Speaker 1: up landing at two. I do think they'll only finish
[15:17] Speaker 1: a couple games behind, though. Their infrastructure is too strong,
[15:20] Speaker 1: the team is too young, and they're too talented to
[15:23] Speaker 1: fall like way, you know, six, seven games behind San Antonio,
[15:26] Speaker 1: unless Shea gets hurt. But like, I wouldn't be surprised
[15:29] Speaker 1: if like, The Spurs won 63 games and the Thunder
[15:33] Speaker 1: won 60 games and they ended up as that two seed.
[15:36] Speaker 1: And then from there, like I said, we'll finalize this
[15:40] Speaker 1: opinion as we get closer to the start of the season,
[15:42] Speaker 1: but I think they might have the best chance to
[15:44] Speaker 1: win the title when they get to the playoffs. And again,
[15:46] Speaker 1: I'll reserve the right to change my mind, but that's
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[16:58] Speaker 1: Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization. Moving on
[17:07] Speaker 1: to the Denver Nuggets. Disappointing summer for them. They lost
[17:09] Speaker 1: Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jalen Pickett, Jonas Valanciunas, and
[17:13] Speaker 1: Peyton Watson. Four, like, real rotation guys for them. They
[17:17] Speaker 1: added Marvin Bagley as the Valanciunas replacement. He actually shot
[17:19] Speaker 1: the ball really well from three last year. So that's intriguing.
[17:22] Speaker 1: I also think he might play alongside Jokic a little
[17:25] Speaker 1: bit with their lack of power forward depth. So that's
[17:28] Speaker 1: kind of the most intriguing piece to me with Marvin
[17:30] Speaker 1: Bagley is like, can he be their backup power forward
[17:34] Speaker 1: and their backup center based on like what the game
[17:36] Speaker 1: calls for and what their matchup is that they're playing against?
[17:40] Speaker 1: DeMar DeRozan. This is the signing that was panned by
[17:42] Speaker 1: most Nuggets fans that I talked to, but I actually
[17:45] Speaker 1: think he's going to play extremely well alongside Jokic. Not
[17:48] Speaker 1: like he's some huge needle mover. I will talk more
[17:51] Speaker 1: about him in a minute, but I just think he's
[17:52] Speaker 1: going to help him. Lonnie Walker making his return from Europe.
[17:56] Speaker 1: He's kind of like a microwave scoring guard, very athletic,
[17:58] Speaker 1: just never shot the ball well enough or defended well
[18:00] Speaker 1: enough to stick in the NBA. But I did root
[18:02] Speaker 1: for him when he was on the Lakers. And he
[18:04] Speaker 1: had some moments, including the swing performance of the 2023
[18:08] Speaker 1: Western Conference semifinals against Golden State, where he iced game
[18:11] Speaker 1: four with a bunch of pull-up jump shots over the
[18:13] Speaker 1: top of Steph Curry. Cam Whitmore, who missed most of
[18:17] Speaker 1: last year with a deep vein thrombosis, but he also
[18:20] Speaker 1: didn't play particularly well. But he's a big, strong athlete,
[18:23] Speaker 1: which the team desperately needs. And Jokic tends to make
[18:25] Speaker 1: pretty good use of players like that. This is unequivocally
[18:30] Speaker 1: a less talented team from last year. And last year's
[18:33] Speaker 1: team got physically overwhelmed by the Timberwolves. So it's disappointing
[18:36] Speaker 1: because I feel like they really needed a forward, a big,
[18:39] Speaker 1: strong athlete. They could play both ends of the floor competently.
[18:43] Speaker 1: And the problem is, is you could have resigned that
[18:45] Speaker 1: guy and Peyton Watson and gone into the second apron
[18:49] Speaker 1: or done so, but had to offload someone like Christian
[18:52] Speaker 1: Brown or Cam Johnson and going around the league. If
[18:55] Speaker 1: you let Peyton Watson walk and you want to trade
[18:57] Speaker 1: for one, they're hard to find teams that have that
[19:00] Speaker 1: kind of player. They don't want to get rid of them.
[19:03] Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon is probably the best at that specific job
[19:06] Speaker 1: outside of OG and an OB, but he can't stay healthy.
[19:10] Speaker 1: you could probably go trade for a guy like PJ
[19:12] Speaker 1: Washington with the pick that they got back in the
[19:14] Speaker 1: Watson deal. But like, I think I'd rather have just
[19:17] Speaker 1: had Peyton and offloaded other salary. It's just, it's, it's complicated,
[19:21] Speaker 1: but it's worth saying that it's, it's a much tough,
[19:26] Speaker 1: a much tougher conversation to have in context of their
[19:29] Speaker 1: financial realities. Like they were, even after everything they've done
[19:35] Speaker 1: to cut costs this summer, uh, they were still right
[19:38] Speaker 1: up against the second apron. I think right now they're
[19:40] Speaker 1: only like $ 500, 000 under the second apron. So even letting
[19:44] Speaker 1: Peyton Watson walk, even with all of the complicated decisions
[19:50] Speaker 1: like even just like letting Bruce Brown walk when he's
[19:52] Speaker 1: a vet minimum player, but it's like they would have
[19:54] Speaker 1: signed Bruce Brown. They'd be in the second apron. Right.
[19:57] Speaker 1: So like you have to acknowledge their real financial constraints.
[20:01] Speaker 1: They could have made like a splashy move by moving
[20:04] Speaker 1: one of their core guys, like We're going to talk
[20:07] Speaker 1: about this when we talk about a couple of the
[20:09] Speaker 1: other teams later in the show, like Minnesota. They swapped
[20:13] Speaker 1: some core guys and really shook things up with their team.
[20:17] Speaker 1: Portland did a lesser version of that, right? So, like,
[20:21] Speaker 1: they could have done something like that, but it's hard
[20:23] Speaker 1: to say how much talent you could bring back in
[20:25] Speaker 1: a deal like that. Most of their core players, like
[20:27] Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon... And Jamal Murray, their stock is at an
[20:31] Speaker 1: all time low because they kind of got embarrassed by
[20:35] Speaker 1: the Timberwolves last year. And Aaron Gordon keeps getting hurt.
[20:37] Speaker 1: Christian Brown looks like one of the worst contracts in
[20:40] Speaker 1: the league right now. Cam Johnson was pretty good, but
[20:42] Speaker 1: it's not like, I think he was going to fetch
[20:44] Speaker 1: some sort of massive haul. So like, I think Denver
[20:47] Speaker 1: looked at their situation and they were like, they probably
[20:50] Speaker 1: canvassed the league for a handful of different tweak, the
[20:53] Speaker 1: roster kind of deals and didn't love anything they, they found. And,
[20:57] Speaker 1: figured that continuity would be their best strength. And that's
[21:00] Speaker 1: the tiny glimmer of hope that you're clinging to if
[21:02] Speaker 1: you're a Nuggets fan. When they are completely healthy, the Murray, Jokic, Gordon, Brown,
[21:07] Speaker 1: Johnson group is still one of the best five-man units
[21:10] Speaker 1: in the NBA. With a ton of experience playing together,
[21:13] Speaker 1: obviously Cam is new, but his skill set fits naturally.
[21:16] Speaker 1: And they're kind of just a pain in the ass
[21:18] Speaker 1: to beat when all five of those guys are healthy.
[21:21] Speaker 1: It just felt like last year was the year that
[21:23] Speaker 1: would have happened if it was going to happen. The
[21:26] Speaker 1: bottom line is they more or less looked physically overwhelmed
[21:29] Speaker 1: by OKC, especially over the final four games of that series.
[21:32] Speaker 1: And then it happened to an even more dramatic extent
[21:35] Speaker 1: last year against Minnesota. And then, as we know, the
[21:38] Speaker 1: year before the OKC year in Minnesota, it happened again.
[21:41] Speaker 1: I'm a big believer in Jokic. I literally ranked him
[21:43] Speaker 1: as the best player in the NBA going into the season.
[21:46] Speaker 1: He's not the one I worry about there yet. Yeah,
[21:48] Speaker 1: do I think he's going to struggle to anchor a
[21:50] Speaker 1: defense when he has no power forward next to him?
[21:52] Speaker 1: Of course, like Spencer Jones just ain't going to cut it.
[21:55] Speaker 1: as a four next to Nikola Jokic, but like we
[21:58] Speaker 1: could get into those conversations about any of the top
[22:00] Speaker 1: players in the league when core supporting pieces are injured.
[22:03] Speaker 1: I'm not necessarily worried about Jokic. It's the rest of
[22:06] Speaker 1: the team build that worries me. So what's the case
[22:10] Speaker 1: for Nuggets optimism? If you're a Nuggets fan and you're
[22:12] Speaker 1: looking for something to give you a reason to believe
[22:15] Speaker 1: they have a shot this year, I have a few
[22:18] Speaker 1: things listed here. Starts with Jokic. Having a clear top
[22:21] Speaker 1: tier superstar is still the best thing that you could
[22:23] Speaker 1: possibly have to help a basketball team. I do think
[22:26] Speaker 1: Christian Brown will have a bounce back season. Will he
[22:27] Speaker 1: ever live up to the contract that he signed? That's
[22:29] Speaker 1: hard to say. It's pretty high bar, but he was
[22:31] Speaker 1: banged up throughout the year last year. And obviously for
[22:34] Speaker 1: a guy who relies on athleticism and transition and on
[22:36] Speaker 1: the perimeter, that's going to be a problem. I think
[22:38] Speaker 1: he's going to look more like himself this year. Just
[22:41] Speaker 1: if he can get back to being a somewhat dependable
[22:43] Speaker 1: catch and shoot guy, plus being the transition weapon, remember
[22:46] Speaker 1: how much of a weapon he was in transition when
[22:48] Speaker 1: he was healthy. If he could get that back, it
[22:50] Speaker 1: would go a long way towards helping this team. Thirdly,
[22:55] Speaker 1: It would be basically impossible for the Denver Nuggets to
[22:58] Speaker 1: have worse luck with health than they did as a
[23:00] Speaker 1: team last year. Jamal Murray was the only starter to
[23:03] Speaker 1: play in 70 games. Jokic missed 17 games with that
[23:07] Speaker 1: knee injury. Christian Brown and Aaron Gordon combined to play
[23:10] Speaker 1: 80 games, and then Aaron Gordon broke down in the
[23:13] Speaker 1: playoffs again. Both Cam Johnson and Peyton Watson each missed
[23:16] Speaker 1: about 30 games with injury. They... simply just through positive regression,
[23:22] Speaker 1: should have a much healthier season this year. And they
[23:24] Speaker 1: won 54 games last year. And then lastly, their additions
[23:29] Speaker 1: do have a small amount of upside. I am genuinely
[23:33] Speaker 1: curious about the Marvin Bagley fit. It's always important to
[23:36] Speaker 1: acknowledge that, you know, when you look at his basketball
[23:38] Speaker 1: reference page, he has been traded midseason for the last
[23:42] Speaker 1: five years. So it's not like any team has been
[23:44] Speaker 1: desperate to hold on to him. So I wouldn't get
[23:46] Speaker 1: too excited. But if the jump shot is real, last
[23:49] Speaker 1: year could be an outlier. If the jump shot is real,
[23:52] Speaker 1: it makes him a very interesting option for them, both
[23:54] Speaker 1: as a backup five and as a player who could
[23:56] Speaker 1: potentially play alongside Jokic. And then I think DeMar DeRozan
[24:00] Speaker 1: is a legitimate player with upside for this type of offense.
[24:05] Speaker 1: This team, if you really look at it, the way
[24:06] Speaker 1: they've been put together, this team has lacked reliable perimeter
[24:11] Speaker 1: ball handling outside of Jamal Murray for years now. It's
[24:14] Speaker 1: always been like, oh yeah, against some of these regular
[24:17] Speaker 1: season teams, Michael Porter Jr. could curl around screens with
[24:20] Speaker 1: Jokic and make some plays. Aaron Gordon has become a
[24:23] Speaker 1: post-up threat and has certainly gotten better shooting the basketball,
[24:26] Speaker 1: but Julian Strother never popped. Russell Westbrook wasn't good enough.
[24:31] Speaker 1: They never have had a really steady backup ball handler
[24:36] Speaker 1: behind Jamal Murray. DeMar DeRozan comes in and is immediately
[24:39] Speaker 1: the most reliable, dependable backup ball handler off the bench
[24:43] Speaker 1: that this team has had in the Okajara. And his
[24:46] Speaker 1: skill set is like this kind of methodical mid-range player
[24:49] Speaker 1: who I think is underrated as a passer. He's always
[24:52] Speaker 1: been pretty good as a passer. I think getting him
[24:55] Speaker 1: into a situation where he can go into screening action
[24:57] Speaker 1: with Jokic is going to get him a lot of
[25:00] Speaker 1: really clean looks. And in that specific case, I think
[25:04] Speaker 1: there's a certain amount of like... the Jokic factor combined
[25:08] Speaker 1: with DeRozan's natural skill set, that should lead to a
[25:11] Speaker 1: lot of successful offensive sequences that are helmed by DeMar DeRozan.
[25:16] Speaker 1: So I actually think there's some legitimate upside there. I'm
[25:19] Speaker 1: nowhere near as high on the Nuggets as I was
[25:21] Speaker 1: as a team last year. Last year, they were my
[25:24] Speaker 1: preseason title pick, although I did shift to OKC pretty
[25:27] Speaker 1: early in the year last year. I think you just,
[25:29] Speaker 1: based on what we've continued to learn over the last
[25:31] Speaker 1: few years, I think you have to be pretty athletic
[25:34] Speaker 1: to win at the highest levels of the NBA. The
[25:37] Speaker 1: days of like the older veteran team where they outsmart
[25:40] Speaker 1: you and they win battles on the ground because they're
[25:42] Speaker 1: physical and strong and kind of just beat you in
[25:45] Speaker 1: tight spaces. Those days appear to be behind us. That
[25:48] Speaker 1: doesn't mean the Nuggets can't win. Nuggets are still a
[25:51] Speaker 1: second tier contender in this league, meaning if things go right,
[25:54] Speaker 1: they could certainly be in the mix. But it's just
[25:57] Speaker 1: a long shot for me at this point. My prediction
[26:00] Speaker 1: is that they hover in that four to seven range
[26:03] Speaker 1: all year long. Maybe some threat to the play-in if
[26:06] Speaker 1: they end up getting beat up physically. I think that
[26:09] Speaker 1: top seven is really where the West kind of separates
[26:13] Speaker 1: from the bottom half of the conference. But from there,
[26:16] Speaker 1: depending on where they land, it's all about matchups. They
[26:19] Speaker 1: do match up pretty well with San Antonio because Jokic
[26:22] Speaker 1: kind of counters a lot of what Wembanyama does well.
[26:25] Speaker 1: So like that's a real feather in their cap is
[26:27] Speaker 1: they match up well with San Antonio. So if things
[26:29] Speaker 1: break a certain way where, you know, OKC has some
[26:33] Speaker 1: injuries and they drop to the four seed and San
[26:35] Speaker 1: Antonio has the one seed and Denver gets the seven
[26:38] Speaker 1: seed and they upset the two and then San Antonio
[26:40] Speaker 1: beats OKC and then they run into San Antonio in
[26:43] Speaker 1: the conference finals and then they You know, it's certainly
[26:46] Speaker 1: possible that Denver could win this year, but they're just
[26:49] Speaker 1: going to need a lot of luck to hoist the
[26:51] Speaker 1: trophy with their physical limitations. On to a team with
[26:56] Speaker 1: some big changes, Minnesota Timberwolves. They lost Julius Randle, Nas Reed,
[27:00] Speaker 1: and Mike Conley. They added LaMelo Ball, Jonathan Kaminga, Cody
[27:03] Speaker 1: Williams from Utah, and then Trey Lyles, who I actually
[27:05] Speaker 1: think might play for them a little bit because of
[27:06] Speaker 1: their lack of forward depth. He can rebound pretty well,
[27:09] Speaker 1: and then he has a decent amount of skill with
[27:10] Speaker 1: the basketball in his hands. Remember in the Nuggets section
[27:14] Speaker 1: where I talked about this idea of trading one of
[27:16] Speaker 1: your core guys for not necessarily more talent, but for
[27:20] Speaker 1: different talent to really shake the team up? Well, the
[27:24] Speaker 1: Timberwolves decided to do that. And they fundamentally altered the
[27:28] Speaker 1: identity of their basketball team in the process. Nas Reed
[27:32] Speaker 1: and Julius Randle were a good chunk of the physical
[27:35] Speaker 1: identity of that team. The Wolves' front line was just massive.
[27:40] Speaker 1: Massive enough to beat you up on defense physically and
[27:45] Speaker 1: to bully your smaller players if they ever got switched
[27:47] Speaker 1: on offense. The team is still very physical. We all
[27:50] Speaker 1: know what Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels bring on both
[27:53] Speaker 1: ends of the floor, but they're definitely not as big
[27:55] Speaker 1: and physical as they used to be. The entire point
[27:59] Speaker 1: of making this type of move is to bet on upside.
[28:04] Speaker 1: You lose or you alter one part of your team's identity,
[28:08] Speaker 1: but you gain back A new identity with a new upside.
[28:13] Speaker 1: And the two main aspects of the game that I
[28:15] Speaker 1: expect for real potential upside for the Wolves this year
[28:19] Speaker 1: are half-court advantage basketball and their transition attack. Starting with transition,
[28:25] Speaker 1: the Wolves left a lot of meat on the bone
[28:27] Speaker 1: as a transition offense last year. Synergy had them tied
[28:30] Speaker 1: with Phoenix as the second lowest amount of transition points
[28:34] Speaker 1: scored per game at just over 19 points per game.
[28:37] Speaker 1: The biggest area of opportunity, if you kind of dig
[28:39] Speaker 1: into it, was pushing off of misses. They were actually
[28:41] Speaker 1: pretty good off of turnovers off of their defense last year.
[28:44] Speaker 1: But according to Cleaning the Glass, they got out in
[28:46] Speaker 1: transition on just 27.7% of their live ball defensive rebounds
[28:51] Speaker 1: last year. That ranked 20th in the NBA. Both Lomelo
[28:56] Speaker 1: and Jonathan Kaminga should help on this front. Jonathan Kaminga
[28:59] Speaker 1: just runs the floor really well because he likes to dunk. So, like,
[29:03] Speaker 1: he brings a ton of value as a transition player.
[29:05] Speaker 1: He's just much more athletic in the open floor than
[29:08] Speaker 1: Nazarene Julius Randle. Here's a crazy stat. Jonathan Kaminga had
[29:11] Speaker 1: 62 transition points in just 16 regular season games for
[29:17] Speaker 1: the Hawks last year. He's a legit grab and go player.
[29:22] Speaker 1: And he's very good with kick ahead. Passes. Charlotte. Wasn't
[29:25] Speaker 1: a great transition team overall last year, but they were
[29:28] Speaker 1: much better in transition with him on the floor versus
[29:31] Speaker 1: off per cleaning the glass. The Hornets ran on just 26%
[29:36] Speaker 1: of their live ball defensive rebounds with LaMelo off the floor.
[29:39] Speaker 1: That went all the way up to 31% when LaMelo
[29:43] Speaker 1: was on the floor. And their transition efficiency went up
[29:45] Speaker 1: by about four points per 100 possessions when he was
[29:48] Speaker 1: on versus off. So just getting a guy in Jonathan
[29:52] Speaker 1: Kamingo who loves to run the floor for dunks, and
[29:54] Speaker 1: did so very successfully at various points in his career,
[29:57] Speaker 1: but then also adding a legitimate point guard who likes
[30:00] Speaker 1: to throw kick-head passes, who likes to play fast, that
[30:04] Speaker 1: will add more of a transition attack to a team
[30:06] Speaker 1: that's very athletic, that's been leaving meat on the bone
[30:10] Speaker 1: with the transition element of their offense in recent years.
[30:13] Speaker 1: And if they can capture any sort of legitimate defensive upside,
[30:17] Speaker 1: that could go a long way to pushing off of
[30:20] Speaker 1: those misses, pushing off of those turnovers. In the half court,
[30:25] Speaker 1: LaMelo should be able to get them into more drive
[30:27] Speaker 1: and kick sequences. Why? Because he has a natural affinity
[30:31] Speaker 1: for advantage creation. Minnesota has some really good catch and
[30:35] Speaker 1: shoot players. We talked about Anthony Edwards in the player
[30:37] Speaker 1: ranking series. He had a ridiculous catch and shoot season
[30:39] Speaker 1: last year. 49% on catch and shoot threes. 68% when
[30:44] Speaker 1: he was open. He was 30 for 44 on open
[30:47] Speaker 1: catch and shoot threes. But he only got about two
[30:51] Speaker 1: catch and shoot three point looks per game last year.
[30:55] Speaker 1: As a team, Minnesota generated just 24 catch and shoot
[30:59] Speaker 1: threes per game that ranked 23rd in the NBA. As
[31:04] Speaker 1: a team, per NBA.com, they averaged just 43.3 potential assists
[31:09] Speaker 1: per game, which ranked 27th in the NBA. This was
[31:13] Speaker 1: a team that played a lot of your turn, my
[31:15] Speaker 1: turn basketball. When they had their beautiful driving kick sequences,
[31:18] Speaker 1: they looked great. They were fewer and far between because
[31:21] Speaker 1: they didn't have a player in their best lineups who
[31:24] Speaker 1: is a natural advantage creator who could start the engine
[31:27] Speaker 1: of driving kick basketball. I think LaMelo will bring what
[31:30] Speaker 1: the Wolves have not had. which is just a really
[31:34] Speaker 1: high-level point guard. Not just to get guys like Ant
[31:37] Speaker 1: clean catch-and-shoot looks, but in general to start the engine
[31:41] Speaker 1: for them in the half court. Run a ball screen,
[31:43] Speaker 1: make that first read that generates that first closeout that
[31:47] Speaker 1: gets the engine running with their drive-and-kick attack. A huge
[31:52] Speaker 1: part of this is the ability of LaMelo to make
[31:55] Speaker 1: use of the vertical spacing window. The Wolves are a
[31:58] Speaker 1: classic four-out, one-in spacing team. What does that mean? They're
[32:02] Speaker 1: running pick and roll or they're running their ISOs with
[32:05] Speaker 1: either Gobert rolling to the rim or him standing in
[32:08] Speaker 1: the dunker spot with the corners occupied and the opposite
[32:10] Speaker 1: wing occupied. That's your four out one in spacing. But
[32:14] Speaker 1: it depends on obviously three point spacing left corner, three
[32:18] Speaker 1: point spacing right corner, three point spacing opposite wing, vertical
[32:22] Speaker 1: spacing under the rim. The problem is the Wolves were
[32:26] Speaker 1: very bad at using Rudy Gobert as a vertical spacer.
[32:32] Speaker 1: As a result, it made things feel very crowded for
[32:36] Speaker 1: the Timberwolves in the half court. Gobert scored on a
[32:39] Speaker 1: roll to the rim just 58 times all season last year.
[32:44] Speaker 1: In 76 games played, think about that, less than once
[32:47] Speaker 1: per game, did Rudy Gobert score on a roll with
[32:52] Speaker 1: the level of offensive talent that they had on that team?
[32:55] Speaker 1: The Timberwolves, as a team, scored just 5.5 points per
[33:00] Speaker 1: game on rolls, which ranked 25th in the NBA. Guess
[33:04] Speaker 1: who ranked first? The Charlotte Hornets. In large part, because
[33:09] Speaker 1: of LaMelo Ball. I think LaMelo's going to unlock Rudy
[33:12] Speaker 1: the Roller. And in the process, unlock a part of
[33:16] Speaker 1: Minnesota's four-out spacing that they haven't been able to make
[33:20] Speaker 1: use of the last four years. So, between the LaMelo
[33:24] Speaker 1: half-court stuff the transition stuff, there are two real pieces
[33:29] Speaker 1: of upside for this team to explore this year. That
[33:31] Speaker 1: doesn't mean it doesn't come with potential downsides, though. LaMelo,
[33:35] Speaker 1: for example, has been overwhelmingly unhealthy as an NBA player.
[33:39] Speaker 1: If he can't stay on the floor, all of this
[33:41] Speaker 1: is moot. Jonathan Kaminga is an incredibly shaky spot-up player.
[33:46] Speaker 1: If he doesn't shoot the ball well again this year,
[33:48] Speaker 1: it could undercut some of the advantages created through that
[33:51] Speaker 1: four-out spacing dynamic we were talking about. the team won't
[33:56] Speaker 1: be as physical on the front line defensively. Kaminga, I think,
[33:59] Speaker 1: is better than people think on defense. Had some real
[34:01] Speaker 1: moments in the Knicks series. Has real athletic tools for
[34:04] Speaker 1: his disposal. I actually think he'll be better in space,
[34:08] Speaker 1: like on the perimeter, than Nas or Julius were. But
[34:11] Speaker 1: he's not capable of beating up people physically the way
[34:13] Speaker 1: those two guys were. The only other thing I want
[34:16] Speaker 1: to hit for the Wolves today, and again, we're hitting
[34:19] Speaker 1: 30 teams in two weeks, so bear with me. I
[34:20] Speaker 1: can't get into a ton of detail on all these teams.
[34:23] Speaker 1: but we will have plenty of time between now and
[34:25] Speaker 1: mid-April to dig into all of these teams in much
[34:28] Speaker 1: more detail. Three-guard lineups. If the Kaminga experiment doesn't work well,
[34:34] Speaker 1: don't be surprised if you see a lot of Ayo
[34:37] Speaker 1: Dusunmu alongside LaMelo Ball and Anthony Edwards sliding Jaden McDaniels
[34:42] Speaker 1: to the fore. Why? Simply because he's a better basketball
[34:46] Speaker 1: player and there may come a point if the fit
[34:49] Speaker 1: doesn't work with Kaminga where, you know, you're looking at
[34:53] Speaker 1: the situation as Chris Finch and you're going, I'd rather
[34:56] Speaker 1: just put my best dudes on the floor. My prediction,
[35:00] Speaker 1: my guess is all of the changes reinvigorate them as
[35:04] Speaker 1: a regular season team. Just a good pivot, new group
[35:07] Speaker 1: of guys, lights a fire under their butt. If LaMelo
[35:11] Speaker 1: stays healthy, I think they'll threaten for the three seed.
[35:15] Speaker 1: Even if LaMelo misses some time, they'll have Io DeSumo
[35:17] Speaker 1: as an insurance policy there. But I do think they're
[35:20] Speaker 1: going to be worse as a playoff team. Three reasons. One,
[35:25] Speaker 1: I think LaMelo is going to struggle with the physicality
[35:27] Speaker 1: of that stage for the most part because he's just
[35:30] Speaker 1: never been there before. It's very rare for a skill
[35:32] Speaker 1: guard to just walk into the NBA playoffs and just
[35:35] Speaker 1: kick ass there. Usually they struggle with the officiating. They
[35:38] Speaker 1: struggle with the physicality. Their legs start to get worn out.
[35:41] Speaker 1: Their jump shot leaves them. I just would have a
[35:43] Speaker 1: hard time believing that LaMelo is just going to walk
[35:45] Speaker 1: into his first ever playoff run and just kick ass
[35:47] Speaker 1: and take names. I think Jonathan Kaminga's inability to shoot
[35:51] Speaker 1: will become a problem there. It did so again for
[35:54] Speaker 1: Atlanta last year. I don't believe in him as a
[35:57] Speaker 1: spot-up shooter. And then lastly, I think they'll miss the
[36:00] Speaker 1: physicality of their front line. So I think this team
[36:03] Speaker 1: is high risk to lose in the first round if
[36:05] Speaker 1: they catch a tough matchup. And I would be shocked
[36:08] Speaker 1: if they escaped the second round under this particular construct.
[36:12] Speaker 1: They have real upside. I'm not going to sit here
[36:14] Speaker 1: and pretend that doesn't exist. But I think the old
[36:17] Speaker 1: book where they could beat teams up physically had more
[36:20] Speaker 1: playoff upside than this group. Where the potential upside is
[36:26] Speaker 1: in terms of like the playoff upside is in like
[36:29] Speaker 1: over several years. if LaMelo stays healthy and he gets
[36:33] Speaker 1: reps against playoff defense, and by that second or third year,
[36:37] Speaker 1: LaMelo becomes a legitimate playoff point guard, that could go
[36:40] Speaker 1: a long way towards them having a higher upside. I
[36:43] Speaker 1: just would be really surprised if they found that this
[36:46] Speaker 1: particular season. All right, two more. We're going to go
[36:53] Speaker 1: a little quicker through these last two. The Portland Trailblazers,
[36:56] Speaker 1: another team with a lot of turnover. They lost Jeremy Grant,
[36:58] Speaker 1: Caleb Love, Chris Murray, and Matisse Theibel. They added Brandon Carlson,
[37:01] Speaker 1: a deep bench big from OKC. Micah Potter, a stretch
[37:04] Speaker 1: big who shot the ball really well for the Pacers
[37:06] Speaker 1: last year. Jeremy Sohan, a forward who fell out of
[37:08] Speaker 1: the Spurs rotation and then couldn't crack the Knicks rotation.
[37:11] Speaker 1: So we'll see how much he plays. And John Moran,
[37:13] Speaker 1: although I think it's worth mentioning that they're also bringing
[37:16] Speaker 1: Damian Lillard back from his Achilles injury this year. Another
[37:20] Speaker 1: kind of easy way to put all of that together
[37:22] Speaker 1: is to say the Blazers traded out a few forwards
[37:24] Speaker 1: for a few guards. And it's worth putting it that
[37:27] Speaker 1: way because one of my favorite looks from Portland last
[37:29] Speaker 1: year was just how big and switchy they were when
[37:31] Speaker 1: they went to their more forward-based lineups, especially their small
[37:35] Speaker 1: ball lineups, which we saw throw a hell of a
[37:38] Speaker 1: knockout punch at the Phoenix Suns in the play-in tournament
[37:41] Speaker 1: last year. This was one of my least favorite off-seasons
[37:45] Speaker 1: from a team in a long time. even acknowledging that
[37:48] Speaker 1: they didn't send out any foundational talent. Like, yeah, I
[37:51] Speaker 1: liked their small ball looks. That doesn't mean I think
[37:53] Speaker 1: Jeremy Grant is like a pivotal piece of Portland's future.
[37:57] Speaker 1: It has more to do with disrupting the development of
[38:01] Speaker 1: the team's up and coming shot creators like Denny Avdia
[38:03] Speaker 1: and Scoot Henderson has more to do with disrupting the
[38:06] Speaker 1: identity of the team as a bigger, more physical perimeter team.
[38:11] Speaker 1: I'm less worried about Dame. Like I, I think the
[38:13] Speaker 1: team could use a reliable backup shot creator. His jump
[38:16] Speaker 1: shooting is going to be an insane asset to this team.
[38:19] Speaker 1: I know you guys all saw that crazy workout that
[38:21] Speaker 1: he did where he made 1100 out of 1169 shots
[38:24] Speaker 1: this year or this summer. Like he's just one of
[38:26] Speaker 1: the best jump shooters to ever touch basketball. So that'll
[38:28] Speaker 1: help a lot. And then he's old and wise enough
[38:31] Speaker 1: to accept a bench role and to be a good
[38:33] Speaker 1: leader through it all. Like Dame, I'm not really worried
[38:35] Speaker 1: about it. I don't think he's really going to play
[38:37] Speaker 1: in there. Like, closing lineups in a big playoff game.
[38:40] Speaker 1: I don't think he's going to be some sort of
[38:41] Speaker 1: massive weak point. I think he's just going to be
[38:43] Speaker 1: a sixth man, basically, for this team that's really going
[38:46] Speaker 1: to help them as a veteran leader and with his
[38:48] Speaker 1: skill set. John Morant is the addition that I think
[38:52] Speaker 1: has very little potential for upside and a lot of
[38:55] Speaker 1: potential for downsides. And it's a simple logical progression. What's
[39:00] Speaker 1: the best thing that John Morant can do to help
[39:01] Speaker 1: a basketball team? Have the ball in his hands. Preferably
[39:05] Speaker 1: at the top of the key, running isos and ball
[39:08] Speaker 1: screens what do you need in order to facilitate that
[39:11] Speaker 1: style being successful you need a vertical spacing threat in
[39:14] Speaker 1: the middle jaw is a good pick and roll player
[39:16] Speaker 1: and has good give and take with his role men
[39:19] Speaker 1: and you need guys who can knock down kick out
[39:20] Speaker 1: threes because jaw's pretty good passer especially to the corners
[39:23] Speaker 1: when he's driving and pick and roll portland's vertical spacing
[39:26] Speaker 1: is fine they brought back robert williams clinging's okay at
[39:29] Speaker 1: it he's not super vertical but he has good hands
[39:31] Speaker 1: and good touch but i think they have some of
[39:33] Speaker 1: the worst jump shooting talent in the league and that
[39:35] Speaker 1: showed in the numbers last year they were 26th and
[39:37] Speaker 1: overall jump shooting efficiency dead last in catch and shoot
[39:41] Speaker 1: three-point shot efficiency So it's like a mediocre at best
[39:46] Speaker 1: to more likely a bad setup for John Morant as
[39:49] Speaker 1: a high-volume ball handler compared to what you could potentially
[39:53] Speaker 1: design around the league. Like if you told me John
[39:55] Speaker 1: Morant was running point for the Charlotte Hornets, I'd feel
[39:59] Speaker 1: a hell of a lot better about his ability to
[40:01] Speaker 1: kind of raise the ceiling of that team. Next, if
[40:05] Speaker 1: the offense is being run through Ja, what does that
[40:08] Speaker 1: mean for the rest of the team? If he's starting...
[40:11] Speaker 1: Right off the bat, your lineup has substantially less size, physicality,
[40:15] Speaker 1: and defense than it could have. Like, you assume Donovan
[40:18] Speaker 1: Klingin starts, right? Avdija and Kamara become your two forwards.
[40:22] Speaker 1: Drew Holiday starts at the two. Ja Morant at the
[40:25] Speaker 1: point makes you substantially smaller and less physical than if
[40:28] Speaker 1: you went with, say, a Shaden Sharp or a Scoot Henderson,
[40:31] Speaker 1: who's a more physical athlete than Ja. And now by
[40:35] Speaker 1: running things primarily through jaw, I'm taking the ball out
[40:38] Speaker 1: of Denny Avdia's hands. Now, Denny is actually a pretty
[40:42] Speaker 1: solid catch and shoot player off the dribble. Not so much.
[40:45] Speaker 1: We've talked about that over the, we're going to actually
[40:46] Speaker 1: hit that a little bit more here in a, in
[40:48] Speaker 1: a few minutes, but the bigger issue is you're taking
[40:51] Speaker 1: the ball out of Denny's hands and Denny's just flatly
[40:54] Speaker 1: a much better offensive player than John Morant is right now.
[40:58] Speaker 1: jaw has lost a little bit of a step athletically.
[41:01] Speaker 1: So he's not the unguardable force that he used to be.
[41:03] Speaker 1: Like it used to be jock could get by anyone
[41:06] Speaker 1: rise up over everyone. And it was like, like you
[41:09] Speaker 1: could talk all about his off court issues and whether
[41:11] Speaker 1: or not his jump shot worked and off ball issues
[41:14] Speaker 1: and leadership stuff. You could talk about that all you want,
[41:16] Speaker 1: but it was like, you'd watch him play and you'd
[41:17] Speaker 1: be like, well, God damn, that dude can beat anybody
[41:19] Speaker 1: off the dribble and pop up off the ground for
[41:21] Speaker 1: a five foot floater. And he just feels unguardable at times.
[41:25] Speaker 1: That's a little more dicey now. Doesn't have quite the
[41:27] Speaker 1: first step quickness, quite the vertical pop that he used
[41:30] Speaker 1: to have. And he continues to get worse as a
[41:32] Speaker 1: jump shooter every single summer. So teams have a lot
[41:35] Speaker 1: more leeway to sag off of him and to go
[41:37] Speaker 1: under screens and just kind of bait him into taking
[41:39] Speaker 1: jump shots. Plus, if you do play through Denny, we
[41:44] Speaker 1: should call the backcourt Denny from now on though. If
[41:48] Speaker 1: you do play through Denny, John Morant is a terrible
[41:51] Speaker 1: off-ball spacer. He's been in the low 30s to high
[41:55] Speaker 1: 20s on catch-and-shoot threes four straight years now, was below 30%
[41:59] Speaker 1: on catch-and-shoot threes again last year. So I just don't
[42:02] Speaker 1: get it. I personally would much rather have just seen
[42:05] Speaker 1: a lot more of Scoot and Dame getting shot creation reps. Scoot,
[42:10] Speaker 1: by the way, is already way better off the catch player.
[42:12] Speaker 1: He shot 37% on catch-and-shoot threes last year, which was
[42:15] Speaker 1: better than any season of John Morant's career. Dame's off-ball
[42:19] Speaker 1: shooting is lethal. Plus, he's an adult in the room,
[42:21] Speaker 1: so whatever you ask him to do, he'll participate and
[42:24] Speaker 1: be a good sport. I just feel like this move
[42:26] Speaker 1: has way more potential to rock the boat, leading to awkward,
[42:30] Speaker 1: passive-aggressive comments and just disrupt what otherwise looked like a
[42:34] Speaker 1: positive trajectory for this team. I wouldn't be the least
[42:37] Speaker 1: bit surprised if we saw John Morant in a press
[42:39] Speaker 1: conference complaining about how he doesn't get the ball enough
[42:42] Speaker 1: within the first month or two of the season. I
[42:45] Speaker 1: want to see it. It's profoundly interesting. It's going to
[42:49] Speaker 1: be entertaining one way or another. I just think Portland
[42:52] Speaker 1: found a real identity through defense and Denny last year.
[42:56] Speaker 1: And this summer felt like more of a pivot instead
[42:59] Speaker 1: of doubling down on their strengths and the trajectory that
[43:01] Speaker 1: they were on. Here's a list of a couple of
[43:04] Speaker 1: other things I have my eye on with the Blazers
[43:05] Speaker 1: this year. One, Denny's pull-up shooting. talked about this a
[43:09] Speaker 1: lot with his skill development, big fan of Denny and
[43:11] Speaker 1: his game. I think he has one of the best
[43:12] Speaker 1: combinations of like big physical drives in the league because
[43:16] Speaker 1: he's got legit first step quickness and has a lot
[43:19] Speaker 1: of power when he gets downhill, but it's like less
[43:22] Speaker 1: Luca methodical break you down with awesome dribble fakes and
[43:25] Speaker 1: leverage and more like he'll hit like a nasty double
[43:29] Speaker 1: cross and then just be by you with a blow
[43:31] Speaker 1: by move. Like this dude is fast as shit. Like
[43:33] Speaker 1: I'm a huge believer in Denny skill set and the
[43:37] Speaker 1: jump shot is like, Clearly better than it looks because
[43:40] Speaker 1: he's a good free throw shooter and he's a good
[43:42] Speaker 1: catch and shoot player. But as soon as he starts
[43:44] Speaker 1: taking jump shots off the dribble, it kind of falls apart.
[43:46] Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, last year he was 36%
[43:48] Speaker 1: on catch and shoot threes, 24% on pull up threes.
[43:52] Speaker 1: And you can see it when he takes them for
[43:53] Speaker 1: whatever reason, he gets like a hitch in his jump
[43:55] Speaker 1: shot when he shoots off the dribble. Would love to
[43:57] Speaker 1: see him rectify that and become a more dependable pull
[44:00] Speaker 1: up three point shooter this year. with how good he
[44:03] Speaker 1: is beating people off the dribble to like, if he
[44:05] Speaker 1: got to the point where he had like a little
[44:07] Speaker 1: scissor dribble step back where he could like get the
[44:08] Speaker 1: ball in his left hand and just pound between his
[44:10] Speaker 1: legs into a step back. If he got to the
[44:12] Speaker 1: ability to knock that down, it'd be a big ceiling
[44:14] Speaker 1: razor for him offensively. And I think that really is
[44:16] Speaker 1: the difference right now between him being like a 28,
[44:19] Speaker 1: 30 point per game guy, instead of a 24, 25
[44:21] Speaker 1: point per game guy can scoot. Can scoot Henderson take
[44:25] Speaker 1: another leap? I thought Scoot was actually a bright spot
[44:28] Speaker 1: for the Blazers in the first round. It wasn't perfect.
[44:31] Speaker 1: Got his ass kicked by Dylan Harper in one of
[44:33] Speaker 1: those games. Pick and roll play was a little bit shoddy. Again, very,
[44:36] Speaker 1: very good defense in San Antonio. But he shot the
[44:39] Speaker 1: basketball really well. He's 22 for 48 on jump shots,
[44:42] Speaker 1: 13 for 28 on threes. Shot 67% at the rim,
[44:45] Speaker 1: although didn't get there a ton because that's what it's
[44:47] Speaker 1: like playing against Wemby. But in general, as we talked
[44:49] Speaker 1: about in the playoffs, he looked really comfortable getting to
[44:51] Speaker 1: his spots. So I'd love to see just more of
[44:53] Speaker 1: him and see if he has another leap in him.
[44:57] Speaker 1: Two more quick ones. Can Tamani Kamara round out the
[45:00] Speaker 1: edges of his offensive game? He had a good catch
[45:02] Speaker 1: and shoot season last year. He nearly doubled his volume
[45:05] Speaker 1: while staying at the same percentage right there in the
[45:07] Speaker 1: high 30s at 37%. Added more of a pull-up three.
[45:10] Speaker 1: Didn't really take a lot of pull-up threes earlier in
[45:12] Speaker 1: his career. Took over 100 last year. Didn't hit him
[45:14] Speaker 1: a ton. He was 32.5%. but took about one and
[45:17] Speaker 1: a half per game. And basically what would happen is
[45:19] Speaker 1: teams would guard him with centers and sag off of
[45:21] Speaker 1: him or in general, just sag off of him with
[45:24] Speaker 1: a big forward. And what he did is he added
[45:26] Speaker 1: like a little kind of like if he dribbled up
[45:28] Speaker 1: the floor and the guy was on his heels way behind,
[45:30] Speaker 1: he'd kind of get into his left-handed hesitation dribble and
[45:32] Speaker 1: just rise in fire. Or he'd have like a little
[45:34] Speaker 1: tiny step back. But none of it translated to the playoffs.
[45:38] Speaker 1: Even his catch and shoot shot failed him in the playoffs.
[45:40] Speaker 1: And he still isn't really efficient with anything off the bounce.
[45:44] Speaker 1: I'd love to see Tamani add like a Jaden McDaniels-esque
[45:47] Speaker 1: slashing game. Can he physically overwhelm players with drives? Can
[45:51] Speaker 1: he become more consistent as a jump shooter? Would love
[45:53] Speaker 1: to see if there's an offensive leap with Tamani. And
[45:56] Speaker 1: then lastly, what does the defense look like if you
[45:59] Speaker 1: incorporate two tiny guards who don't defend? I just want
[46:02] Speaker 1: to see if they end up experiencing any sort of
[46:04] Speaker 1: dramatic drop off by adding a bunch of Dame and
[46:06] Speaker 1: jaw to the rotation. My prediction is that the Blazers
[46:09] Speaker 1: are going to have a very similar season to last year.
[46:11] Speaker 1: I think they're going to hover around 500. I think
[46:13] Speaker 1: they'll have stretches where they look great for two weeks
[46:15] Speaker 1: and then they'll have stretches where they look terrible for
[46:16] Speaker 1: two weeks. I think they'll end up competing with Phoenix
[46:19] Speaker 1: for the 8th seed, but never truly threaten the top
[46:22] Speaker 1: 7 seed. And we'll dig more into this when we
[46:24] Speaker 1: talk about Utah, but I think that there's a clear
[46:27] Speaker 1: top 7 and then a pretty big drop-off to that
[46:29] Speaker 1: Phoenix-Portland group. And that's what I think the Blazers will
[46:33] Speaker 1: be competing for, getting that 8th seed so they have
[46:36] Speaker 1: two chances to win a play-in game instead of one.
[46:39] Speaker 1: Last team for today, Utah Jazz. One of my favorite off-seasons,
[46:43] Speaker 1: after one of my least favorite off-seasons. And one of
[46:46] Speaker 1: the teams that I'm most excited to watch this season.
[46:48] Speaker 1: They lost Walker Kessler to the Lakers for a haul
[46:51] Speaker 1: of draft compensation. Kevin Love and Cody Williams, some back
[46:54] Speaker 1: end of the roster guys too. They added Jackson Hayes,
[46:57] Speaker 1: a backup center that I think Jazz fans will like.
[46:59] Speaker 1: He's gotten a lot better over the last few years
[47:00] Speaker 1: in some key areas. He's added some muscle. He's got
[47:03] Speaker 1: better at defending with verticality at the rim without fouling people.
[47:06] Speaker 1: He used to just commit so many stupid fouls and
[47:08] Speaker 1: pick and roll. He was actually one of the most
[47:10] Speaker 1: productive role men in the league last year. I think
[47:14] Speaker 1: if you're getting in on the Jackson Hayes train as
[47:16] Speaker 1: a backup center, now's the time. I think he learned
[47:18] Speaker 1: a lot over the last couple of years in L.A.
[47:20] Speaker 1: Josh Kogi, 3 and D wing. Josh Green, 3 and
[47:22] Speaker 1: D wing that I actually really like. And also an
[47:24] Speaker 1: Arizona guy, so I'm biased. And then Darren Peterson, the
[47:27] Speaker 1: number two pick in the draft. And of course, they
[47:29] Speaker 1: did re-sign Keontae George to a five-year, $ 158 million extension
[47:33] Speaker 1: just the other day. So right around $ 32 million per
[47:36] Speaker 1: year for a player that I think is really good.
[47:38] Speaker 1: If you look at that in the context of Austin Reeves' deal,
[47:41] Speaker 1: that's really good value. And I do think Austin's a
[47:43] Speaker 1: better player. but not by much. And you're paying $ 10
[47:46] Speaker 1: million less for Keontae George. So that's a real nice
[47:50] Speaker 1: deal for Utah with some good flexibility. I'm super high
[47:53] Speaker 1: on Keontae. I thought he was an excellent offensive player
[47:55] Speaker 1: last year. The first question with Utah is what does
[47:58] Speaker 1: the starting lineup look like? Obviously, you're going with Keontae
[48:01] Speaker 1: and Darren in the backcourt. I actually think they're a
[48:03] Speaker 1: perfect fit with each other. I know that there was
[48:05] Speaker 1: some buzz around the fit before the draft and maybe
[48:08] Speaker 1: Darren not wanting it. But while I think Darren has
[48:11] Speaker 1: a lot of on-ball potential, I think he's pretty much
[48:14] Speaker 1: ready to be one of the best off-ball scorers in
[48:16] Speaker 1: the league right away. I think he's going to feast
[48:19] Speaker 1: off of advantages created by the rest of this team.
[48:22] Speaker 1: And at the same time, if you start to look
[48:24] Speaker 1: at the way these lineups are put together, when you
[48:26] Speaker 1: have to match up with Keontae George, and you have
[48:28] Speaker 1: to match up with Laurie Markkinen, and you have to
[48:30] Speaker 1: match up with Jaron Jackson, Keontae's going to draw the
[48:32] Speaker 1: best perimeter defender, the best guard defender. And Laurie and
[48:36] Speaker 1: Jaren are going to, Laurie's probably going to draw your
[48:38] Speaker 1: best like wing defender. Like every team when they're matching
[48:41] Speaker 1: up with Utah is going to guard Darren Peterson with
[48:45] Speaker 1: their worst perimeter defender easily. The skill guard from the
[48:48] Speaker 1: other team. Like just look around the rest of the
[48:51] Speaker 1: Western Conference. Like if you're going against the Lakers, Austin
[48:55] Speaker 1: Reeves is going to have to guard Keontae George. If
[48:57] Speaker 1: you're going against the Thunder, Shea Gildas Alexander, excuse me,
[49:00] Speaker 1: not Keontae George, Darren Peterson. Austin's going to have to
[49:03] Speaker 1: guard Darren Peterson. Shea is going to have to guard
[49:05] Speaker 1: Darren Peterson. Jamal Murray is going to have to guard
[49:08] Speaker 1: Darren Peterson. Reed Shepard is going to have to guard
[49:10] Speaker 1: Darren Peterson. LaMelo Ball is going to have to guard
[49:13] Speaker 1: Darren Peterson. Darren Fox is going to have to guard
[49:16] Speaker 1: Darren Peterson. He's either going to have size, strength, or
[49:18] Speaker 1: speed advantages against everyone. single one of those guys and
[49:22] Speaker 1: have a lot of opportunities to have success when he
[49:25] Speaker 1: does get the basketball in his hands. It really is
[49:27] Speaker 1: a perfect setup for him. So I'm a big believer
[49:30] Speaker 1: in the Darren Peterson, Keontae George backcourt. I think it's
[49:32] Speaker 1: going to naturally look great pretty quickly. Assuming Laurie and
[49:37] Speaker 1: Jaron Jackson are both for sure starting, the question becomes,
[49:40] Speaker 1: who do you go with for the fifth guy? A
[49:42] Speaker 1: center or a wing? Conventional wisdom might tell you wing,
[49:46] Speaker 1: but Jaron Jackson's kind of a unique type of center
[49:48] Speaker 1: in that he kind of needs to play in two
[49:50] Speaker 1: big lineups. He's one of the worst defensive rebounding centers
[49:54] Speaker 1: in the NBA. He gets out of position a ton.
[49:57] Speaker 1: He doesn't really have a great nose for the ball.
[50:00] Speaker 1: Tries to block a lot of shots, which will get
[50:02] Speaker 1: him out of position. He's just bad at defensive rebounding. Now,
[50:05] Speaker 1: in theory, Laurie Markkinen would be the type of forward
[50:08] Speaker 1: that you would want next to Jaron at center because
[50:11] Speaker 1: he's physically big and athletic and can theoretically make up
[50:15] Speaker 1: for some of Jaron's deficiencies. For the record, in seven
[50:19] Speaker 1: possessions last year without a center, they rebounded pretty well,
[50:22] Speaker 1: but that's seven possessions. It's like a minute and a
[50:25] Speaker 1: half of basketball or two minutes of basketball. They played
[50:28] Speaker 1: 104 possessions last year together. before they shut him down
[50:32] Speaker 1: at the end of the year, and seven of them
[50:34] Speaker 1: without a center. So Will Hardy basically already told you
[50:37] Speaker 1: that he's going to play them with the center. Last year,
[50:40] Speaker 1: most of the time, that was Yusuf Nurkic, and they
[50:41] Speaker 1: played pretty well. 82 possessions, plus 10 net rating, rebounded
[50:45] Speaker 1: really well, defended insanely well, but the offense was pretty bad.
[50:49] Speaker 1: They were right around a 105, 106 offensive rating in
[50:52] Speaker 1: that group, although it's worth mentioning Keontae George only played
[50:55] Speaker 1: in 15 of those 82 possessions. I think that's probably
[50:59] Speaker 1: the most interesting pivot point for the Jazz this year.
[51:03] Speaker 1: I think when Jaron is at the five next to
[51:05] Speaker 1: Laurie Markkinen with Keontae and Darren and let's say Josh
[51:08] Speaker 1: Green or one of the other role player wings at
[51:10] Speaker 1: the three, I think they're going to score the shit
[51:13] Speaker 1: out of the basketball. But will they have enough defense
[51:17] Speaker 1: on the floor, enough rebounding on the floor to make
[51:20] Speaker 1: those lineups viable? That's going to be the pivot point.
[51:23] Speaker 1: If not, they're massive lineups with Jaron and Laurie next
[51:27] Speaker 1: to Nurkic or Jackson Hayes or one of the other bigs,
[51:30] Speaker 1: they should defend and rebound just fine, but will they
[51:33] Speaker 1: be able to score easily enough with those groups? My
[51:37] Speaker 1: guess is that they end up giving the Nurkic at
[51:39] Speaker 1: the five look a long rope next year to figure
[51:42] Speaker 1: things out. Hardy built a lot of like kind of
[51:47] Speaker 1: off-ball motion into their offense with their five men as
[51:50] Speaker 1: like passing fulcrums at the top of the key. A
[51:52] Speaker 1: lot of Nurkic, a lot of Kevin Love in those spots,
[51:55] Speaker 1: Walker Kessler too before he got hurt. Yusuf Nurkic had
[51:59] Speaker 1: a very successful year last year as a high post passer.
[52:01] Speaker 1: He had a career best five assists per game, which
[52:04] Speaker 1: actually translated to six and a half assists per 36 minutes.
[52:07] Speaker 1: That offense is kind of built on the idea of
[52:09] Speaker 1: like we have a passing center that kind of inverts
[52:11] Speaker 1: the spacing a little bit. because Nurkic is a reasonably
[52:15] Speaker 1: credible jump shooter. And then we're running these off-ball actions
[52:19] Speaker 1: where you have guards screening for forwards, which put them
[52:22] Speaker 1: in these tough positions where if you linger on a screen,
[52:25] Speaker 1: someone's popping wide open for three. And if you switch,
[52:28] Speaker 1: Laurie Markkinen is burying a guard underneath the basket for
[52:32] Speaker 1: an easy over-the-top seal and a layup or a dunk,
[52:35] Speaker 1: which I think is going to be exaggerated. adding in
[52:37] Speaker 1: a Darren Peterson and a Jaron Jackson, where now you
[52:40] Speaker 1: could have Nurkic at the top of the key running
[52:43] Speaker 1: two off-ball sets of screening actions with both involving a
[52:48] Speaker 1: big forward and a skilled guard, which would be two
[52:52] Speaker 1: actions very difficult to switch on both ends of the floor.
[52:55] Speaker 1: And Nurkic is going to have all sorts of opportunities
[52:57] Speaker 1: to operate as a passer there. So I think they'll
[52:59] Speaker 1: lean into that quite a bit to start the year.
[53:01] Speaker 1: And if they're good enough offensively, then the size is
[53:04] Speaker 1: plenty for them to defend and rebound on the other end.
[53:07] Speaker 1: There's a lot of work with here. If you're a
[53:08] Speaker 1: jazz fan, a lot of good basketball players, very complimentary
[53:11] Speaker 1: skill sets. They have a pick and roll attack. They'll
[53:15] Speaker 1: have a high post passing attack. Like we just talked about.
[53:17] Speaker 1: Jaron Jackson brings like matchup attacking from the forward spot.
[53:21] Speaker 1: And they have the potential to be a lot better
[53:23] Speaker 1: defensively than they were last year. Although I will say
[53:25] Speaker 1: a lot of pressure on a rookie, Darren Peterson, to
[53:27] Speaker 1: be a good perimeter defender. And Laurie Markkinen in those
[53:30] Speaker 1: big lineups is going to have to guard on the
[53:31] Speaker 1: perimeter as well. I think we'll see a lot of
[53:33] Speaker 1: switching from them. Why? Because if you have lots of
[53:36] Speaker 1: size on the floor, You can switch bigs on the
[53:38] Speaker 1: perimeter and keep size under the basket. So if Laurie
[53:42] Speaker 1: has to switch onto a guard, it helps to have
[53:44] Speaker 1: Jaron Jackson and Yusuf Nurkic behind. If Nurkic has to
[53:47] Speaker 1: switch onto a guard and he's going to give up
[53:49] Speaker 1: a drive, it helps to have Jaron Jackson and Laurie
[53:51] Speaker 1: Markkinen behind him. So I think we'll see a lot
[53:53] Speaker 1: of switching. I think we'll see a lot of zones
[53:54] Speaker 1: as well. Similarly, having a lot of size on the
[53:57] Speaker 1: back line that covers more ground than if you're playing
[54:00] Speaker 1: zone with smaller lineups. My prediction for the Jazz, I
[54:04] Speaker 1: think this team's going to be really good. I talked
[54:06] Speaker 1: about like last year, there was this huge drop off
[54:09] Speaker 1: from the six seed to the seven seed. Like there
[54:11] Speaker 1: was no threat for a five or six seed to
[54:13] Speaker 1: drop to the plane because there was like something crazy,
[54:14] Speaker 1: like a six or seven game gap. This year, I
[54:17] Speaker 1: think the Jazz enter that group. Does that mean they're
[54:20] Speaker 1: going to finish with the three seed? Not necessarily. They
[54:23] Speaker 1: could finish with the seven seed. But my point is,
[54:26] Speaker 1: is they're going to be attached to that group this year.
[54:28] Speaker 1: I don't think there's going to be a big drop
[54:29] Speaker 1: off between six and seven. This year, I think the
[54:31] Speaker 1: drop off is going to be from seven to eight.
[54:34] Speaker 1: And I think it's going to be because the Jazz
[54:35] Speaker 1: are going to enter into that group. Whether or not, like,
[54:39] Speaker 1: if Denver has an injury, if LA has an injury,
[54:42] Speaker 1: if LaMelo Ball misses a bunch of time, one of
[54:44] Speaker 1: those teams could easily slip to seven and then the
[54:47] Speaker 1: Jazz could be above the play-ins. and kick one of
[54:49] Speaker 1: those teams out into the play-in tournament. And then from there,
[54:53] Speaker 1: as long as they don't get the seven, obviously if
[54:54] Speaker 1: they get the seven seed, they're going to lose to
[54:55] Speaker 1: San Antonio or OKC in the first round. But if
[54:57] Speaker 1: they get a six seed or a five seed, they're
[54:59] Speaker 1: a legitimate threat to upset one of those other teams
[55:02] Speaker 1: in the Western Conference. I really like this Jazz team.
[55:05] Speaker 1: I think they're going to be a lot better than
[55:08] Speaker 1: people think they're going to be. All right, guys, that's
[55:11] Speaker 1: all we have for today. As always, I sincerely appreciate
[55:13] Speaker 1: you guys for supporting us and supporting the show. We'll
[55:15] Speaker 1: be back on Friday with another division preview. I will
[55:18] Speaker 1: see you guys then.

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