# Ukraine/Russia, NATO Summit & Iran Going Nowhere Fast | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

An episode of [The Team House](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1492797340), 6 Jul 2026, 1 h 10 min.

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We break down Ukraine’s deep strike campaign inside Russia, the fight over Crimea, and whether Moscow’s war machine is starting to crack under pressure. We also get into the NATO summit, Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy process, Iran’s reconstitution after the ceasefire, and the growing split between the U.S. and Europe. Support the show on Patreon:⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse Marc's new article: https://engelsbergideas.com/author/sam-worby-marc-polymeropoulos/ Subscribe to our newsletter!!!! https://teamhousepodcast.kit.com/join Jack's news outlet:⬇️ https://thehighside.substack.com/ Find Jon Hackett here:⬇️ Jon's Twitter: https://x.com/jonathanhackett Jon's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett Jon's books: https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B0C5L659N5?ccs_id=e11a2062-f8d3-498e-bfd7-7d2f3869caf6 Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett Twitter: https://x.com/jonathanhackett Check out Mick's new podcast here:⬇️ Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/pub-and-porch-applied-stoicism/id1836955475 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1k3QPmkAMwnGJxMLDwUSSd?si=n6piIu8XRcag1Z0K43A3bQ Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCd0Hq6QFk8CoTu5j-VU0Ong Find Mick Mulroy here: Fogbow ⬇️ https://fogbow.com/ Lobo Institute ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/ Twitter ⬇️ https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCA LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/ Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.social Mick’s publications ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/publications/publications-of-michael-mick-patrick-mulroy/ Whitefish security summit ⬇️ https://whitefishsecuritysummit.com Find Marc P here: https://x.com/Mpolymer Find Andy Milburn here: Twitter ⬇️ https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8 LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023 Substack ⬇️ https://amilburn.substack.com/ Andy’s book ⬇️ https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.social Find Jason Lyons here: LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?u Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.social "Karl Casey @ White Bat Audio 00:00 — Start 01:22 — Ukraine’s Deep Strikes Inside Russia 04:28 — MAGA’s Shift on Ukraine and Israel 05:13 — Russia’s Fuel Supply Gets Hit 08:38 — Russia’s Grinding War in Donbas 11:51 — The Kerch Bridge and Crimea’s Symbolic Value 15:09 — Ukraine Is Isolating Crimea 17:22 — The Next Major Russian Energy Target 19:18 — Trump’s Calls With Putin and Zelensky 20:26 — Russia’s Political Theory of Victory 21:54 — U.S. Policy Confusion Before the NATO Summit 24:22 — Turkey, the F-35, and the S-400 Problem 26:12 — Europe Braces for U.S. Troop and Asset Cuts 28:17 — European Allies Reading Truth Social for Policy 30:49 — NATO, Ukraine Aid, and the Iran War Fallout 31:43 — U.S. Bases, Europe, and Access for War 34:44 — Iran Exposes the U.S.-Europe Split 37:53 — Access, Basing, and Overflight Problems 40:21 — Iraq, Iran, and Selling a War 46:40 — Intelligence Failures and Political Bias 50:47 — What to Expect From the NATO Summit 54:38 — Iran Rebuilds While Negotiations Drag On 57:09 — Why Sanctions Relief Helps Iran Reconstitute 58:54 — NATO’s Goals: Defense Spending, Ukraine, and Turkey 01:01:44 — Trump’s Unpredictable Foreign Policy Process 01:03:07 — The Broken NSC Process 01:07:14 — Closing Plugs and Final Thoughts Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support.

## Transcript

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[0:40] Speaker 1: Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics.
[0:43] Speaker 1: We're here with the whole crew, Mick Moulroy, Andy Milburn,
[0:45] Speaker 1: Jonathan Hackett, and Mark Polymereopolis. Happy forth to everybody who
[0:51] Speaker 1: just passed July fifth. I hope everybody had a safe holiday.
[0:54] Speaker 1: Ate some hot dogs, didn't blow your hands off with fireworks.
[0:58] Speaker 1: It was fun. It was very hot here in New York,
[1:01] Speaker 1: but it was still a good time, all right, boys,
[1:04] Speaker 1: A lot happening as usual. I think we should kick
[1:06] Speaker 1: off today with talking about Ukraine. We have seen over
[1:09] Speaker 1: the last probably a couple of months now, Ukraine hitting
[1:13] Speaker 1: deep inside Russia, Russia's fuel supply being severely limited, where
[1:19] Speaker 1: it is that they're buying fuel from India to try
[1:22] Speaker 1: and keep up with the man. I did see a
[1:24] Speaker 1: couple of things where like we really won't see a
[1:26] Speaker 1: big difference until like it hits like their lubricitts and stuff,
[1:30] Speaker 1: and like their war machine gets hit a little bit more.
[1:33] Speaker 1: Russia also did come out the other day and claim
[1:37] Speaker 1: that they took over a town in uh, you know,
[1:42] Speaker 1: Dombas area, which then Ukraine sent down in a salt
[1:46] Speaker 1: force and basically took it back. So it's interesting what's
[1:50] Speaker 1: going on they see Russia seems to be flailing. Yeah,
[1:55] Speaker 1: what are you guys tracking here? Let's go with Mark
[1:58] Speaker 1: poly Moreopolis first. Greeks first, Greeks he first.
[2:02] Speaker 2: Oh, I like that Greeks first. This is like a
[2:05] Speaker 2: Mick Molroy is but throwing in the Greeks. By the way,
[2:08] Speaker 2: I just have to one shout out to Mick. I've
[2:10] Speaker 2: been I don't have it with me. I've been reading
[2:12] Speaker 2: that all the Stoicism books, very inspiring and I started
[2:16] Speaker 2: giving them to all my friends and I have just
[2:18] Speaker 2: on a serious note, I have a friend who's going
[2:19] Speaker 2: to not government related, is going through some really tough times,
[2:22] Speaker 2: and I gave him that book. You know, the obstacle
[2:24] Speaker 2: is the way it really helped them. So good stuff.
[2:30] Speaker 3: Yeah, most of the stoics know me. So this is
[2:35] Speaker 3: a book by a friend of mine. Two friend of
[2:37] Speaker 3: mine just came out, one that runs the earliest foundation
[2:41] Speaker 3: justin Seed and another one who's a professor at Oxford. Yeah,
[2:46] Speaker 3: we need these, we need them.
[2:51] Speaker 2: No, I like it. I gave it Look for the
[2:54] Speaker 2: Stoics Ukraine so interesting in a couple of different ways.
[2:58] Speaker 2: And I'm gonna throw a little curveball in this because
[3:01] Speaker 2: the thing that I've been mokes focused on, which is
[3:03] Speaker 2: really weird. So first of all, there's certainly events on
[3:05] Speaker 2: the ground, and I think maybe you guys can cover
[3:09] Speaker 2: them in great more greater detail. What is interesting to
[3:11] Speaker 2: me is politically how things have changed in the United States.
[3:14] Speaker 2: Laura Lumer just put out a post where she said
[3:18] Speaker 2: I am now pro Ukraine. She loves Zelensky and she's
[3:21] Speaker 2: railing against others in the MAGA world who are who
[3:26] Speaker 2: She is obviously claiming to be perhaps correctly pro prutent
[3:29] Speaker 2: pro Russia. This is the Tucker Carlson's of the world,
[3:32] Speaker 2: Megan Kelly and others, And it's really interesting to see
[3:36] Speaker 2: and I think this actually does, this actually does have
[3:40] Speaker 2: some effects here in the United States because these individuals
[3:45] Speaker 2: on the right, whether they're podcasters or influencers, certainly kind
[3:49] Speaker 2: of move the way the MAGA movement in the Republican
[3:51] Speaker 2: Party goes sometimes. And Laura Lumer has the ear of
[3:53] Speaker 2: the President of the United States, there's no doubt on that.
[3:56] Speaker 2: So she now is a huge supporter of Ukraine. Now
[3:58] Speaker 2: you can kind of, you know, throw it in your
[4:00] Speaker 2: mouth and kind of because she's kind of she has
[4:02] Speaker 2: her own issues, massive ones. But it's really interesting and
[4:06] Speaker 2: so you know, how does this now translate when to
[4:08] Speaker 2: get to the next part. There are serious, you know,
[4:11] Speaker 2: issues ahead in terms of what the US willer will
[4:14] Speaker 2: not provide. I think the Ukrainians just asked us if
[4:16] Speaker 2: they can co produce patriots. So there's some things coming
[4:22] Speaker 2: down the pike, you know, in which there will be
[4:25] Speaker 2: some US policy decisions. But the thing I'm really looking
[4:28] Speaker 2: at d is is this really strange divide in the
[4:31] Speaker 2: MAGA movement over Ukraine.
[4:35] Speaker 1: Did she give any kind of reasoning why now she's
[4:37] Speaker 1: a pro Ukrainian or no. It was just like I
[4:40] Speaker 1: will come up.
[4:41] Speaker 3: Today because it looks like they're going to potentially turn
[4:45] Speaker 3: the tides. Winning tends to win over people more than
[4:49] Speaker 3: even logic. Sometimes I don't know who you're talking about necessarily,
[4:53] Speaker 3: but you know, if we get more people on board,
[4:56] Speaker 3: even if it's for the right wrong in different reasons,
[5:00] Speaker 3: I'm all for let's actually help with Ukraine witness.
[5:05] Speaker 4: Yeah, the Maga wright have done a flip, not just
[5:08] Speaker 4: on Ukraine but on Israel.
[5:10] Speaker 5: You know, Israel could do no wrong.
[5:12] Speaker 4: And now Israel is the country I'm paraphrasing magaworld right here,
[5:19] Speaker 4: is the country that is leading us down into the
[5:23] Speaker 4: dark abyss and has been feeding the president lies. And
[5:33] Speaker 4: it's it's interesting once the once that critical momentum starts,
[5:39] Speaker 4: you know, it's difficult to identify the turning point in
[5:41] Speaker 4: the Ukraine or in Israel, but it goes strongly the
[5:46] Speaker 4: other way suddenly, doesn't it.
[5:49] Speaker 3: So you I mean Ukraine Senator McCain used to say,
[5:53] Speaker 3: was a Ukraine. Russia was a gas station with an army,
[5:57] Speaker 3: and I think Ukraine said, great, take out the army
[6:00] Speaker 3: and the gas nation, right, So that's what's happening right now.
[6:03] Speaker 3: These long range strikes by Ukraine into areas, whether they're
[6:09] Speaker 3: logistical hubs, refinery, storage facilities, are now more deeper and
[6:17] Speaker 3: more effective than they were before. Ukraine's mass producing drones
[6:22] Speaker 3: every month, they produce more, every year, they'll produce more.
[6:26] Speaker 3: They're seriously challenging. In Crimea, there was fourteen significant strikes
[6:31] Speaker 3: in the last forty eight hours.
[6:33] Speaker 5: There.
[6:34] Speaker 3: We're not seeing an eminent fall in Ukraine. We're not
[6:37] Speaker 3: seeing an imminent, you know, or anywhere close to animinent
[6:40] Speaker 3: withdrawal of Russia. But Ukraine has gone from the back
[6:44] Speaker 3: foot to the front foot, and I think people recognize
[6:47] Speaker 3: it all of a sudden. There's people going, oh, maybe
[6:49] Speaker 3: we should support It's like, you can't support them when
[6:51] Speaker 3: they're you know, teetering on the brink, but you can
[6:54] Speaker 3: now Again. I would have hoped that the U, asked
[6:58] Speaker 3: the leader of the free world, would have been leading
[7:01] Speaker 3: discharge the whole time. But you know, if it takes
[7:04] Speaker 3: some people coming at the end, fine, But that needs
[7:08] Speaker 3: to be translated into direct support the US basically now
[7:12] Speaker 3: just allows them to purchase things through NATO. I think
[7:16] Speaker 3: NATO countries, European countries, countries around the world that are
[7:20] Speaker 3: that want to promote democracy and stability and counter you know,
[7:28] Speaker 3: naked aggression like Russia need to throw in with Ukraine
[7:32] Speaker 3: like now, not when they're on the Virgin winning now,
[7:37] Speaker 3: and this could push President Putin, who's under an incredible
[7:40] Speaker 3: amount of pressure internally. I mean, right now they've got
[7:44] Speaker 3: I think I saw the stat if you're recruited, and
[7:47] Speaker 3: by recruited, I mean basically conscripted into the Russian army,
[7:51] Speaker 3: you got about three week lifespan. Amazing includes includes going
[7:55] Speaker 3: through training, right Apparently on the battlefield now it was
[7:58] Speaker 3: like forty minutes. Yeah, you step foot on a battle
[8:00] Speaker 3: for you're dead for you. So the whole generation of
[8:05] Speaker 3: Russian males are being annihilated. And now it's become almost untenable,
[8:10] Speaker 3: you know, because the fuel shortages. Everything that's going on
[8:14] Speaker 3: in Russia is really putting pressure on Putin. He's gonna do,
[8:19] Speaker 3: of course, what Putin usually does, which is launch at civilians. Right.
[8:22] Speaker 3: We saw in Kiev last week, I think it was
[8:24] Speaker 3: like five hundred drones and almost seventy five missiles Senate
[8:28] Speaker 3: keep but and Andy can tell you spent a lot
[8:32] Speaker 3: of time there. I think that just makes them more resilient,
[8:37] Speaker 3: like there's no way you're going to kill more kids
[8:40] Speaker 3: and they're gonna quit. Like it's the opposite. They're never
[8:43] Speaker 3: gonna quit. And this is only going to firm up
[8:46] Speaker 3: their resolve to ensure that they save their country. So
[8:51] Speaker 3: it's now is the time for the West. And the
[8:54] Speaker 3: supporters of Ukraine include the United States, but more security
[8:59] Speaker 3: assistants direct security assistance into Ukraine with the idea that
[9:04] Speaker 3: it'll force I think putin to the negotiation table on
[9:07] Speaker 3: terms that are more are actually completely aligned with what
[9:11] Speaker 3: the Ukrainians want to see.
[9:12] Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the war.
[9:14] Speaker 4: It's it's flipped into a strange dual reality, right, So
[9:18] Speaker 4: Russia's grinding out its symbolic prize in the dombas and
[9:23] Speaker 4: the town you're talking about the is constantin I'm mispronouncing it.
[9:29] Speaker 1: I tried. I don't want to pronounce it.
[9:32] Speaker 4: We used to call it constantinivkas so as Constantinople with
[9:37] Speaker 4: Nivka on the end, but that's totally wrong. But anyway,
[9:39] Speaker 4: it's a ship home of the place. But nevertheless, I mean,
[9:43] Speaker 4: I've said that about puck Ross, but the similarity. The
[9:46] Speaker 4: point is, the Russians are grinding it out as they're
[9:52] Speaker 4: taking this territory at at just incredible cost. CSIS estimated
[9:57] Speaker 4: that they're advancing fifty meters a day. They're taking eight
[10:01] Speaker 4: times the casualties said the Ukrainians are, and those figures
[10:04] Speaker 4: come from Russi, you know, so this isn't stuff that
[10:07] Speaker 4: we're making up right, eight times casualties and they've seize this,
[10:13] Speaker 4: you know, after years of trying. They never got pop Ross,
[10:17] Speaker 4: but they've they they may have got Constantinika. The Ukrainians
[10:21] Speaker 4: are challenging that. And some of the videos you've seen
[10:26] Speaker 4: online of Russians waving flags there apparently are AI generated.
[10:31] Speaker 4: So they may not even have taken shithole town, right,
[10:37] Speaker 4: but if they have, it's that great costs they just
[10:39] Speaker 4: can't sustain it. And so they're grinding this out, but
[10:44] Speaker 4: simultaneously they're losing the strategic initiative Ukrainian Ukraine's running. I mean,
[10:52] Speaker 4: it's the most effective deep strike campaign of the war,
[10:55] Speaker 4: you know, to mixed point, I mean, going after cohesively,
[10:59] Speaker 4: going after Russian energy sources, reducing production by estimates of
[11:06] Speaker 4: twenty percent, which is huge, right. Not only that, but
[11:09] Speaker 4: look what they're doing in the Crimea and Crimea has
[11:14] Speaker 4: a tremendous symbolic value to both sides. Although it's probably
[11:20] Speaker 4: a bridge too far for the Ukrainians to win back,
[11:23] Speaker 4: but they've made it untenable. They've dropped the Kerse Bridge,
[11:27] Speaker 4: they've dropped the bridge that I forget the name, that
[11:30] Speaker 4: goes from Crimea to occupied Ukrainian territory, you know, towards
[11:36] Speaker 4: Kerson and they keep dropping them, so the Russians there
[11:39] Speaker 4: are trapped. And then systematically they've taken out the air
[11:45] Speaker 4: defense systems and so now what they're doing you can see,
[11:48] Speaker 4: they've just they're doing these mass drone raids on Russian
[11:53] Speaker 4: infrastructure across Crimera and apparently it's, you know, nothing can
[11:57] Speaker 4: move there. I mean you're looking at they're hitting, they
[12:01] Speaker 4: destroying the roads. So Russia has Crimea, yes, but it's
[12:07] Speaker 4: it's it's kind of a hollow price and it's becoming
[12:10] Speaker 4: a death trap for them, and of course it's you know,
[12:12] Speaker 4: the Ukraine is very clever at this. They know that
[12:15] Speaker 4: Putin will continue to pour forces into Crimea in a
[12:18] Speaker 4: vain attempt to defend it, but they're being attacked asymmetrically
[12:24] Speaker 4: from the air.
[12:25] Speaker 2: And what's the what's the pr value of them actually
[12:28] Speaker 2: dropping the Kirk Bridge, of actually doing it, finally destroying
[12:31] Speaker 2: it if they can. I mean, there's you see a
[12:33] Speaker 2: lot of talk of that. You hear even in town
[12:34] Speaker 2: here in d C. Ukrainian officials saying that this is inevitable,
[12:38] Speaker 2: it's coming, and you could see that that, you know,
[12:41] Speaker 2: the public relations value in doing so would be rather massive.
[12:45] Speaker 2: And then on top of that question for you is
[12:47] Speaker 2: and then what about the kind of the strategic yes
[12:51] Speaker 2: as well, and what would the Russian reprize will be? Sorry,
[12:54] Speaker 2: go ahead, yes.
[12:55] Speaker 4: So on your first part and Putin, uh, I've Putin
[13:00] Speaker 4: has kind of staked his reputation at times on the
[13:03] Speaker 4: Kersh Bridge. He keeps going on and on about it's
[13:05] Speaker 4: the umbilical cord and paraphrasing him that links Crimea to Russia,
[13:10] Speaker 4: et cetera, et cetera. And so, yes, the Ukrainiu has
[13:14] Speaker 4: gone after it. They've made it on and off untenable.
[13:18] Speaker 4: But it's strategically what they've done is they've just isolated
[13:23] Speaker 4: Crimea I mean totally. It's Crimea is now pretty much useless.
[13:29] Speaker 4: I mean, it was used for for a number of reasons.
[13:31] Speaker 4: It was a port. But the Ukrainians have decimated the
[13:35] Speaker 4: Black Sea Fleet through their kind of mosquito fleet navy,
[13:40] Speaker 4: which is ironic that Ukrainians don't have a navy, but
[13:43] Speaker 4: they've done. They've done to the Russians what the Uranians
[13:46] Speaker 4: are doing. The Straits of hor moves, right, only they're
[13:50] Speaker 4: using unmanned they're using missiles, drones, and they're using unmanned
[13:56] Speaker 4: sea vessels.
[13:57] Speaker 5: Right.
[13:58] Speaker 4: So they've they've negated Crimea to the Black Sea fleet.
[14:03] Speaker 4: They've decimated the Black Sea Fleet, and now they prevented
[14:06] Speaker 4: it from being a logistics hub for the Southern Front.
[14:09] Speaker 4: They've prevented it being anything but just a giant missile
[14:17] Speaker 4: and drone and bomb sump. And it's infuriating Putin because
[14:26] Speaker 4: I remember, I mean from twenty fourteen he's banged on
[14:29] Speaker 4: and on about Crimea and now and now it's just
[14:33] Speaker 4: it's a it's this black hole, right, and.
[14:38] Speaker 3: This decision could actually lose in Crimea to do the
[14:41] Speaker 3: full invasion of Ukraine, which likely he would have kept Crimea.
[14:45] Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly, that as a viable and the Black Sea
[14:49] Speaker 4: Fleet and everything.
[14:49] Speaker 1: Yeah, you're right, Ye, a.
[14:51] Speaker 2: Worry of reprisals because this means so much to putin Well, yeah,
[14:56] Speaker 2: they dropped the bridge. Is he going to actually go
[14:58] Speaker 2: even crazier than he had has done so in terms
[15:01] Speaker 2: of the tax on civilian targets, et cetera.
[15:04] Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, but I think to your point, Mark,
[15:08] Speaker 4: I think Russia is doing all it can right now.
[15:10] Speaker 4: And we're always talking about, well he's going to escalate,
[15:13] Speaker 4: What the hell more can you do? You know, he's already,
[15:18] Speaker 4: he's already hitting Kiev. He's you know, I think the
[15:22] Speaker 4: consensus is despite him always threatening to go to in Ucas,
[15:26] Speaker 4: he's unlikely to do that.
[15:29] Speaker 5: And and you know what I mean, what's that said?
[15:34] Speaker 4: Go on?
[15:34] Speaker 3: Nuclear would be like throwing a grade at somebody in
[15:37] Speaker 3: an elevator. Ok, you're right next door, man, literally right
[15:40] Speaker 3: next door. So if you start to use the nuclear weapons, yeah.
[15:45] Speaker 4: And and you know one thing I forgot to mention.
[15:47] Speaker 4: So they've destroyed a railroad bridge over this is all,
[15:51] Speaker 4: you know, everything that links Crimea to the mainland Russia
[15:55] Speaker 4: or Ukraine. That destroyed the bridges, They destroyed a railroad
[15:58] Speaker 4: bridge of the North Crimean Canal. They're even hitting and
[16:01] Speaker 4: now they're hitting ferries that the Russians are using to
[16:04] Speaker 4: to move military equipment, and Defense Minister feder Off says
[16:12] Speaker 4: Crimea is being isolated by drones and effectively is being
[16:15] Speaker 4: turned into an island. They've declared a state of emergency.
[16:20] Speaker 4: You know, it's gonna be interesting. And Moscow is the
[16:23] Speaker 4: one that's cut the Kosh Bridge rail traffic just because
[16:27] Speaker 4: of the risk to traffic going across the bridge. So
[16:30] Speaker 4: so Crimea has been isolated, it's been negated as being
[16:34] Speaker 4: any any sort of asset to Russia. And then you've
[16:37] Speaker 4: got this deep strike campaign that's gone up a gear.
[16:41] Speaker 4: And so in just the last few days, trying the
[16:45] Speaker 4: last weeks, since the beginning of July, the Ukrainians have
[16:48] Speaker 4: hit twelve Russian substations. The Belograd was the Belograd thermal
[16:55] Speaker 4: power plant knocked out, which caused a huge total blackout auto.
[16:59] Speaker 5: Disruption across the city.
[17:02] Speaker 4: The main airfield in Crimea Siki I think it's called
[17:07] Speaker 4: s A k Y destroying Russian aircraft there and Saint Petersburg.
[17:12] Speaker 4: I don't know if you saw that. You know, the
[17:15] Speaker 4: film of this massive black cloud coming out of the
[17:18] Speaker 4: oil terminal in Saint Petersburg, struck by drones.
[17:23] Speaker 5: So it's it's.
[17:24] Speaker 4: A really yeah, you know that it's come to the
[17:27] Speaker 4: point where and I agree with you, Mick, I mean
[17:31] Speaker 4: we should have been piling on, of course, the support
[17:34] Speaker 4: Ukraine years ago, but Ukrainians are turning the type by themselves.
[17:39] Speaker 4: Of course, you've still got to win back territory and
[17:41] Speaker 4: that is the long pole for the Ukrainian state. They're
[17:44] Speaker 4: running out of manpower and that that is certainly an
[17:47] Speaker 4: issue for them. But strategically, yeah, they you know, they
[17:53] Speaker 4: they have turned the type.
[17:56] Speaker 3: Russian is the mass. You're gonna hear more and more
[18:02] Speaker 3: about this, this junction of seventeen gas pipelines. It's in
[18:08] Speaker 3: northwestern Siberia. Once they can hit that, that could have
[18:12] Speaker 3: a major major impact in general Russia. So I think
[18:18] Speaker 3: we should be obviously providing a lot more security assistance,
[18:20] Speaker 3: but we should also be doing we don't have to
[18:22] Speaker 3: be public about it, we don't need to know about
[18:25] Speaker 3: it and talk about it, but we should be doing
[18:27] Speaker 3: a lot more to push push the ah the tides toward.
[18:35] Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a uh, I mean, it's a fascinating topic
[18:37] Speaker 4: and Iran's kind of the cliffs that. But what has
[18:41] Speaker 4: been going on in the last three months is it
[18:44] Speaker 4: has been extraordinary. And you know, even when Russia, i
[18:47] Speaker 4: mean his operational insight, even when Russia wins right in Dombas,
[18:52] Speaker 4: it wins nothing. And I'm not just being facetious because
[18:55] Speaker 4: Constantinivka and pop rosca shithole town, So I mean they
[18:58] Speaker 4: are important to sites, especially Pokrovski it's a rail terminal.
[19:03] Speaker 4: But for the Russians having ground, you know, Constinivka is
[19:09] Speaker 4: it's a ruins of a small city, that's and it's
[19:11] Speaker 4: cost them tens of thousands of lives. And they the
[19:16] Speaker 4: Russians are exhausted. I mean they're not They're moving fifty
[19:19] Speaker 4: meters a day, which is slower than the British move
[19:22] Speaker 4: than the song and they're staring at tens of kilometers
[19:27] Speaker 4: of mind fortified drone patrol terrain between them and the
[19:31] Speaker 4: next objective, which is Krematrusk, which is basically Ukraine's last line.
[19:35] Speaker 5: Of defense internets.
[19:37] Speaker 4: So you know, even on the ground, the Russians are
[19:41] Speaker 4: their prospects don't look they don't look good.
[19:43] Speaker 6: Well, you know just the most recent development, which is
[19:45] Speaker 6: the ninety minute phone call that Trump had with Putin
[19:48] Speaker 6: yesterday during the Fourth of July celebrations, which is a
[19:51] Speaker 6: very interesting development, and as far as I know so
[19:54] Speaker 6: far what I've seen, the US didn't announce the details
[19:57] Speaker 6: of that call, but the Russian Foreign Ministry did, which
[19:59] Speaker 6: I think is also a little bit interesting because that's
[20:02] Speaker 6: similar to what was going on between the US and Iran,
[20:04] Speaker 6: where the US was not announcing any of the points
[20:06] Speaker 6: from the deal, but Iran was. And it seems that
[20:08] Speaker 6: Russia's doing the exact same thing right now, which means
[20:10] Speaker 6: the US doesn't have control over the narrative about what's
[20:13] Speaker 6: being said in those calls. So that's an opportunity for
[20:16] Speaker 6: the US policymakers to seize control the narrative and actually
[20:19] Speaker 6: say what needs to be said publicly. And I believe
[20:22] Speaker 6: Zelenski was also called yesterday as well. So my hunch
[20:26] Speaker 6: is that these calls were made ahead of the NATO
[20:28] Speaker 6: summit to get some things ironed out, so that way
[20:31] Speaker 6: those things can be discussed in person at the summit
[20:34] Speaker 6: with other NATO leaders, of course, and that's why the
[20:38] Speaker 6: Secretary General visited last week as well to get those
[20:42] Speaker 6: things kind of evened out in person before they're discussed
[20:45] Speaker 6: in Turkey coming up in the next few days.
[20:48] Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, Gloria victory is right now, it's purely
[20:52] Speaker 4: political because they can't win militarily at fifty meters a
[20:56] Speaker 4: day and half a million dead. So what it's doing
[20:59] Speaker 4: is buying negotiating chips, right, but just by trying to
[21:02] Speaker 4: seize a little more ground in don Esk and betting
[21:06] Speaker 4: that Western patients runs out before Russian manpower does.
[21:12] Speaker 3: And it's backbar and miserably right. I mean, his whole
[21:15] Speaker 3: purpose was he was concerned about the expansion of NATO
[21:18] Speaker 3: and the threat of NATO, even though NATO's never been
[21:21] Speaker 3: a threat to Russia unless Russia is a threat to it.
[21:24] Speaker 3: It's a defensive alliance, defensive alliance, right, So because of
[21:29] Speaker 3: his invasion of Ukraine, it's now expanded in two countries
[21:32] Speaker 3: it managed not to join for the entirety of the
[21:34] Speaker 3: Cold War, and now they have. And now although they
[21:38] Speaker 3: should have been doing it the whole time, but now
[21:40] Speaker 3: they are. All the countries are spending more money on
[21:43] Speaker 3: their national security and defense. There's I mean, look at
[21:46] Speaker 3: what Germany's doing right now increasing the size of its
[21:49] Speaker 3: its army, poland all across Europe. Right now, they are
[21:53] Speaker 3: becoming a stronger ally to the United States. I think
[21:56] Speaker 3: the United sty should recognize that we could take credit.
[21:59] Speaker 3: I guess we want to. I think it's largely because
[22:01] Speaker 3: of Russians of Asia Ukraine, but what have you. We
[22:04] Speaker 3: now have a more substantial military alliance than we did
[22:09] Speaker 3: before Russia invaded Ukraine, and Ukraine is going to be
[22:13] Speaker 3: the strongest military in Europe by far proper, but it is,
[22:16] Speaker 3: especially with Finland joining.
[22:18] Speaker 2: I agree with all that. The problem, of course, is
[22:19] Speaker 2: we don't know what the US administration wants to do
[22:22] Speaker 2: because it seems so divided. You know, there's there's the
[22:25] Speaker 2: there's all these reports that came out that Hegseth was
[22:28] Speaker 2: about to announce some very significant troop cuts. Uh, you know,
[22:32] Speaker 2: Rubio and others kind of preempted him on this. I mean,
[22:34] Speaker 2: there's this divide between kind of the Rubio Rancliffe Wing
[22:37] Speaker 2: Dan Kane versus versus heg Seth and JD.
[22:40] Speaker 5: Vance.
[22:42] Speaker 2: But I think that you know the problem is, I
[22:44] Speaker 2: mean you talk to European officials, you know, nobody really
[22:47] Speaker 2: knows what Trump's going to do, uh when he when
[22:50] Speaker 2: he gets to Turkey. Now he's going there because Radiwan
[22:52] Speaker 2: is his buddy, fellow autocrat, and so you know, he's
[22:55] Speaker 2: doing that as a reward. But you know, you just
[22:57] Speaker 2: don't know. At the end of the day, is the
[22:59] Speaker 2: US to announce significant true cuts in Europe? What kind
[23:03] Speaker 2: of tone is Trump going to send? You know, is
[23:07] Speaker 2: it going to be this kind of humiliation?
[23:09] Speaker 5: Will it be more?
[23:10] Speaker 2: And on the one hand, there is a notion, and
[23:12] Speaker 2: I don't know if I subscribe to this, that because
[23:14] Speaker 2: the Ukrainians are doing better, Trump wants to back a winner,
[23:18] Speaker 2: and that the Laura Loomers of the world and Ratcliffe
[23:21] Speaker 2: and others who kind of have kind of been feeding
[23:23] Speaker 2: Trump the notion that Ukraine is doing really well. Well,
[23:25] Speaker 2: then Trump's going to just side with Ukraine because he's
[23:28] Speaker 2: just transactional and he believes in nothing. I don't know,
[23:33] Speaker 2: you know. One of the other things too, to kind
[23:35] Speaker 2: of think about is we have pressed Europe correctly to
[23:38] Speaker 2: spend more our NATO partners. The US still only spends
[23:40] Speaker 2: about two pointy eight percent of GDP on defense, not
[23:43] Speaker 2: five percent, not what we're asking the Europeans to do.
[23:45] Speaker 2: And now we have a huge issue coming up politically
[23:47] Speaker 2: in the United States and in terms of rebuilding a
[23:50] Speaker 2: military which has been which has you know, significant shortfalls
[23:54] Speaker 2: right now after the war in Iran. I know they
[23:58] Speaker 2: want to do a trollion. Plus I don't know if
[24:00] Speaker 2: there's political support and on either side for this to occur.
[24:05] Speaker 4: Uh.
[24:06] Speaker 2: And so, you know, lots of lots of interesting things
[24:08] Speaker 2: coming up. But this, this, and and of course D
[24:11] Speaker 2: you know, D and I are going to have heart
[24:13] Speaker 2: palpitations over Trump's turn towards Turkey. The idea of giving
[24:17] Speaker 2: them the F thirty five while Turkey has an S
[24:19] Speaker 2: four hundred Russia air defense system I think is preposterous.
[24:22] Speaker 2: But that's because my greekness comes through, and Mick, you're
[24:26] Speaker 2: an honorary Greek as well. I mean, the Greek defense
[24:29] Speaker 2: establishment is probably going crazy at this point. That's a
[24:32] Speaker 2: lot of reason for their turn to the Israelis, of course,
[24:36] Speaker 2: but but that that issue of the F thirty five
[24:38] Speaker 2: is going to be really significant in this UH, in
[24:40] Speaker 2: this summer coming up, we'll see what happens.
[24:43] Speaker 1: What's interesting about the F thirty five though, is like
[24:46] Speaker 1: we're still having supply change issues with it, like there's
[24:49] Speaker 1: supposed to be a new radar coming out for like
[24:51] Speaker 1: the Block forty, and we're being we're getting delivered F
[24:55] Speaker 1: thirty five's that don't have radars in them, and we're
[24:58] Speaker 1: going to wait until they're ready. So adding another country
[25:01] Speaker 1: I know they were in it initially Turkey, h doesn't
[25:05] Speaker 1: exactly make a lot of sense, especially like when we
[25:08] Speaker 1: are in need of getting our F thirty five fleet
[25:11] Speaker 1: up to snuff. It doesn't make sense, frankly, and also
[25:16] Speaker 1: fuck Turkey, you know, I.
[25:18] Speaker 3: Do think there's a Putin realizes that there is a
[25:21] Speaker 3: split in the Republican party, like like Mark said, but
[25:28] Speaker 3: he has two more years of the Trump administration. Right,
[25:31] Speaker 3: So if you look at Secretary of Rubio, I would
[25:34] Speaker 3: call him more of a traditionalist when it when it
[25:36] Speaker 3: comes to the US foreign policy and a lot of
[25:40] Speaker 3: the traditional Republicans or Reagan Republicans, I would say, maybe
[25:44] Speaker 3: more pro Ukraine then President Biden was. It's a possibility,
[25:51] Speaker 3: and it depends on what comes next, right, So Putin's
[25:54] Speaker 3: got to realize that the chances of it being a
[25:58] Speaker 3: new administration that more pro Ukraine or high. So he's
[26:04] Speaker 3: got two years and then if if it's a Democrat,
[26:07] Speaker 3: or if it's more of a Republican or Reagan Republican
[26:10] Speaker 3: like I would call uh Rubio, he's going to be
[26:15] Speaker 3: in a bad position, which is great, I think. So
[26:19] Speaker 3: he's got to keep that in mind. And he's got
[26:20] Speaker 3: a refurbished NATO who's focused on him like a laser beam.
[26:26] Speaker 3: So this is not going his way at all. Huge
[26:31] Speaker 3: strategic miscalculation.
[26:36] Speaker 4: It's really so someone mentioned in here that no one's
[26:42] Speaker 4: really sure what the US policy is, and I think
[26:45] Speaker 4: that's what's really unnerving the Europeans. I mean, they can,
[26:48] Speaker 4: I think generally they can live with a diminished or
[26:51] Speaker 4: a reduced US presence, but they need to know how
[26:56] Speaker 4: much it's reduced and what that means. And there's a
[26:59] Speaker 4: lot of focus on, you know, the withdrawal of a brigade,
[27:02] Speaker 4: which actually isn't that many people. It's five thousand troops, right,
[27:06] Speaker 4: and I'm trying to remember someone can probably look it up,
[27:09] Speaker 4: but the NDAA, right, the NDA stipulates that there has
[27:19] Speaker 4: to be I think it's a floor of about seventy's
[27:23] Speaker 4: seventy or seventy five thousand troops in Europe, and that
[27:28] Speaker 4: five thousand withdrawal takes that level, maybe a thousand guys
[27:32] Speaker 4: below that, so it's not a it's not a huge deal,
[27:35] Speaker 4: but legally the United States has to maintain that troop
[27:38] Speaker 4: level unless the more changes, so I think, but I
[27:42] Speaker 4: think the real iss I'm not sure it's covered so
[27:44] Speaker 4: much by the media, but it's covered in it.
[27:46] Speaker 5: I know, what's it. The Spiegel did a story on this.
[27:51] Speaker 5: It's not so much the troops.
[27:53] Speaker 4: It's the fact that the that the US has told
[27:58] Speaker 4: NATO officials they planned to significantly cut other assets fighters,
[28:04] Speaker 4: strategic bombers, destroyers, submarines, tankers, drones, and most importantly missiles
[28:12] Speaker 4: and and so that and not having clarity on what
[28:16] Speaker 4: exactly the numbers are I think is causing the problems.
[28:20] Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, the good news story idgree one hundred percent.
[28:23] Speaker 4: I mean is the fact that NATO has up spending
[28:26] Speaker 4: across the board. So I mean that's one that's one
[28:30] Speaker 4: benefit when advantage perhaps partly of US pressure, but mostly of.
[28:35] Speaker 5: Just the threat from Russia that's caused them to do that.
[28:38] Speaker 2: I mean, let me just put one one quick thing
[28:40] Speaker 2: in there. I just just came to mind because I
[28:42] Speaker 2: know you focus on this too. I met with the
[28:45] Speaker 2: senior European intelligence official recently got to keep it at
[28:50] Speaker 2: that and they said, literally they they every the first
[28:53] Speaker 2: thing that that country's embassy does every morning is check
[28:56] Speaker 2: true social That's how they determine US policy. That insane
[29:01] Speaker 2: and so you know, to me that was just, first
[29:03] Speaker 2: of all, it's embarrassing because that's that's our policy making.
[29:06] Speaker 2: But that's the level of uncertainty in Europe. Their first
[29:09] Speaker 2: thing they do track what Trump is fifty five tweets
[29:13] Speaker 2: that you know the night before.
[29:14] Speaker 5: Yeah.
[29:15] Speaker 3: I do think there's substantial security assistance for Ukraine that's
[29:20] Speaker 3: coming out of the Senate and the House right now,
[29:24] Speaker 3: like close to a billion. So we'll have to see
[29:29] Speaker 3: how it's implemented, right, but I think there's it's a
[29:33] Speaker 3: bipartisan issue in the in Congress.
[29:36] Speaker 1: Yeah, but is he going to sign it?
[29:39] Speaker 3: I think it's at least part of it's in the NBA, Okay,
[29:43] Speaker 3: which is where it should be.
[29:45] Speaker 2: Because but the Ukrainians, I mean, I think Europe and
[29:48] Speaker 2: Ukrainians have to just there's a way to do this,
[29:50] Speaker 2: and you know, you plan for the worst. If this
[29:54] Speaker 2: comes through, it's great. They cannot plan to receive anything
[29:57] Speaker 2: from US, period end of story. And if they so,
[30:00] Speaker 2: they're stupid.
[30:01] Speaker 1: I think they've they've seen the riding on the wall
[30:03] Speaker 1: ever since. Yeah, ever since it happens.
[30:05] Speaker 2: That's great, and that's that would be a significant boon.
[30:08] Speaker 2: But there's no European that you speak with who thinks
[30:12] Speaker 2: who actually can plan for the US to come. The
[30:14] Speaker 2: cavalry is not coming. If it does, wonderful, you can't
[30:16] Speaker 2: plan for that.
[30:19] Speaker 1: And Andy, if you think this administration is worried about
[30:21] Speaker 1: being in contempt of Congress, you're wrong with having like
[30:25] Speaker 1: one thousand less troops in the European theory.
[30:29] Speaker 2: No, I mean, I agree with you.
[30:30] Speaker 4: My point wasn't that the NDAA is I mean it is.
[30:35] Speaker 4: It is a benchmark. I mean it is, you know,
[30:38] Speaker 4: a significant reduction below that would be problematic. What my
[30:42] Speaker 4: point is that there are other assets that we're pulling
[30:45] Speaker 4: out of Europe that are arguably more important than troop strength,
[30:50] Speaker 4: that are more of a deterrent. And then of course we're.
[30:53] Speaker 1: Pulling them out. Are we pulling them out because of
[30:55] Speaker 1: what's going on in the RAN we need to shift
[30:58] Speaker 1: assets there or is it just like an overall like
[31:01] Speaker 1: we're looking to tighten our belt because we're asking for
[31:03] Speaker 1: eighty billion dollars from Congress. Where are in.
[31:07] Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean the perception in Europe.
[31:10] Speaker 4: I think the thing it's fair to say is that
[31:12] Speaker 4: it's it's it's retribution for them not stepping up to
[31:19] Speaker 4: the plate in the in the war with Iran. I mean,
[31:22] Speaker 4: but there are you know, I mean the positive aspect
[31:26] Speaker 4: of this across the board, self defense and also defense
[31:29] Speaker 4: of Ukraine. European nations stepping up to the board, stepping
[31:32] Speaker 4: up to the plate. And there's a program and I
[31:35] Speaker 4: forget what it's called, but it's been running since last
[31:38] Speaker 4: year where the NATO's providing it's like five four to
[31:46] Speaker 4: five billion worth of a billion dollars worth of equipment
[31:51] Speaker 4: to Ukraine, but it's bought by European countries in Canada
[31:56] Speaker 4: from the United States and program.
[32:01] Speaker 3: I do think it was a mistake by NATO countries
[32:04] Speaker 3: to prevent us from using their the bases to carry
[32:08] Speaker 3: out the Yaron. And I'm not saying that they should
[32:11] Speaker 3: have to agree with the Iran war, but they cut
[32:14] Speaker 3: our argument in half when they when we say, well,
[32:17] Speaker 3: we were there for our own benefit. It gives us
[32:19] Speaker 3: a platform to launch and then they say except for
[32:22] Speaker 3: when they don't agree with us, and then we can't, right,
[32:25] Speaker 3: and then then you're like, okay, well there is that.
[32:28] Speaker 3: So I'm not saying that they have to politically or
[32:30] Speaker 3: militarily support every thing that we get involved in, like
[32:34] Speaker 3: the Iran war. But when they politically prevent us from using,
[32:40] Speaker 3: you know, the bases that we're at in Europe, then
[32:43] Speaker 3: you start shooting yourself in the foot when it comes
[32:46] Speaker 3: to the people who believe that we are in Europe
[32:50] Speaker 3: in their bases primarily for our own benefit, it does
[32:53] Speaker 3: benefit them, and it benefits NATO with.
[32:55] Speaker 2: Part there's there's but nick I pushed back just on
[32:59] Speaker 2: that in a way, these are European democracies. Yeah, and
[33:03] Speaker 2: you're in the European public was with vehemently ninety ten
[33:07] Speaker 2: ninety five to five opposed to the US actions that
[33:09] Speaker 2: are on and so a prime minister in any European
[33:12] Speaker 2: country they want to, you know, maintain power and get
[33:15] Speaker 2: elected again, and so they are responding to their constituency.
[33:18] Speaker 2: And so I hear what you're saying. I think that
[33:21] Speaker 2: the way to have done this would have been to
[33:23] Speaker 2: sell this better. So this is where the Trump administration
[33:26] Speaker 2: deserves a lot of contempt is that they made no
[33:28] Speaker 2: effort to sell it to the American people, nor to
[33:30] Speaker 2: our European allies. And frankly also the golf or to
[33:34] Speaker 2: the golf and so. But but again, if you're if
[33:36] Speaker 2: you're the prime minister of the UK or France or
[33:38] Speaker 2: anywhere else, look, their public is against this. So by
[33:41] Speaker 2: allowing that's it.
[33:43] Speaker 1: I get it. I get it.
[33:44] Speaker 3: But then from a national security perspective, I'd moved to
[33:47] Speaker 3: a country that didn't block me whenever they disagreed with
[33:50] Speaker 3: my the decisions that I made. You see what I mean, Yeah,
[33:55] Speaker 3: they could block us, but then why why are we
[33:58] Speaker 3: considering that a major hub for us rejection of power
[34:02] Speaker 3: if they block us because they're populations against it. Our
[34:05] Speaker 3: population is against it.
[34:06] Speaker 2: I think though that when the country you know, hosts
[34:09] Speaker 2: in the United States base, they do have a say
[34:11] Speaker 2: on what we do with that base.
[34:13] Speaker 3: And then I'd go to another country that didn't block
[34:15] Speaker 3: us when we're in the middle.
[34:16] Speaker 4: Of a war.
[34:17] Speaker 3: It's from it's looking at it from our perspective, they
[34:19] Speaker 3: can do it, and it's like both countries get a choice.
[34:24] Speaker 3: They can stop us and we can move. If you
[34:30] Speaker 3: supported this war or not, you specifically, But if you
[34:33] Speaker 3: were a supporter of this war, I think you would agree.
[34:36] Speaker 3: I think you'd say, look, if they're going to block
[34:38] Speaker 3: us from using our base when we need it, we're
[34:40] Speaker 3: at war, whether we agree with them or not, then
[34:43] Speaker 3: we need to be in another location. So when you
[34:46] Speaker 3: do that and then you arrive because the United States
[34:49] Speaker 3: moved to a more friendly.
[34:50] Speaker 2: Country, I don't know where that country would be.
[34:56] Speaker 3: There's other countries I think in Europe that are would
[34:58] Speaker 3: love to host a major your hub for the United States.
[35:03] Speaker 5: Yeah, I think.
[35:03] Speaker 4: I mean, whichever way you look at it, Iran, Iran
[35:08] Speaker 4: more exposed, right, something that not even Ukraine had, And
[35:13] Speaker 4: that's that the US and Europe they no longer assume
[35:18] Speaker 4: that fighting the same fights, right, So I mean, from
[35:22] Speaker 4: from the US government's perspective, Europeans wouldn't escort tankers through Homouse.
[35:29] Speaker 4: From their perspective, it's because it was for a war
[35:32] Speaker 4: they weren't consulted on. And from US government's perspective, Trump's perspective,
[35:38] Speaker 4: he won't guarantee troops for a continent Europe that he
[35:42] Speaker 4: thinks is a free rider. So I mean, you know,
[35:47] Speaker 4: if you're in Magaland, or whether you're on the side
[35:51] Speaker 4: of the Europeans. The arguments seem internally rational, and.
[35:55] Speaker 2: I guess, I guess the ghost in the notion we
[35:56] Speaker 2: should have sold this better. There should have been better
[35:59] Speaker 2: consultation with al and that's the way. And because you
[36:02] Speaker 2: can't make a case for this, and and and and
[36:04] Speaker 2: because the European prime ministers and presidents will have to
[36:06] Speaker 2: do so to their publics. But when it's just you know,
[36:09] Speaker 2: just thrown upon them, then they you know, that's when
[36:11] Speaker 2: there's the there's the backlash. So I certainly get that.
[36:14] Speaker 2: I mean, but you look at I mean, there's all
[36:15] Speaker 2: these you know, there's stories came out of the last
[36:17] Speaker 2: week or two or two about the Saudis and how
[36:20] Speaker 2: the Saudis UH did not want any part of renewed
[36:24] Speaker 2: strikes against Iran again. And you do see and I
[36:27] Speaker 2: think and of you you did raise it. Uh. There
[36:30] Speaker 2: is a huge backlash in the Gulf. And you're going
[36:33] Speaker 2: to see a lot of golf countries, maybe not the UAE,
[36:35] Speaker 2: but even maybe them, but but but others cutting side
[36:37] Speaker 2: deals with the your onions now and so you know there,
[36:41] Speaker 2: So we talked about the US bases. There US bases
[36:44] Speaker 2: in the Middle East are certainly exposed right now. Uh,
[36:47] Speaker 2: in terms at first they're you know, the the degree
[36:50] Speaker 2: in which we can protect them, but also in terms
[36:54] Speaker 2: of countries not wanting any further strikes. I mean the
[36:56] Speaker 2: Saudis said, no, is that right? Yeah, Jonathan, maybe you
[37:02] Speaker 2: want to comment on that. Sorry, sorry, make sorry, No,
[37:05] Speaker 2: I was just.
[37:05] Speaker 3: Going to agree with you on the on the we
[37:08] Speaker 3: should have done a way better jump sell on the war,
[37:11] Speaker 3: not only to Europe but to the United States population,
[37:15] Speaker 3: and we should probably stop beating up on our longest
[37:19] Speaker 3: standing allies. If you look at the National Defense strategy,
[37:22] Speaker 3: for some reason, it goes after Europe, right, you know,
[37:26] Speaker 3: in a way that it never has and and then
[37:29] Speaker 3: leaves countries like Russia off the criticism list. There's a
[37:34] Speaker 3: lot of things that we should do better, but that's
[37:37] Speaker 3: somebody who's been in the Pentagon. It's it's also our
[37:41] Speaker 3: ability to project power once we're given an order, right,
[37:45] Speaker 3: Whether we don't need to agree with the that's the
[37:48] Speaker 3: that's my point. So we have to have platforms that
[37:50] Speaker 3: we can use. They can't just be at the whim
[37:52] Speaker 3: of well, we don't like the war, so you can't
[37:55] Speaker 3: use it, because then From a military perspective, you've just
[37:59] Speaker 3: taken out that capability because your job is to carry
[38:02] Speaker 3: out oars. It's not to debate the efficacy of the policy.
[38:06] Speaker 6: We need access basing and overflight. That's the keyn like
[38:09] Speaker 6: from the Pentagon perspective, that's what we need. That's those
[38:11] Speaker 6: security cooperation is supposed to provide us those things, especially
[38:15] Speaker 6: in the Gulf. That's why we have AFCENT Air Force
[38:17] Speaker 6: Central Commanding Qatar, when we have fifth Fleet in Bahrain.
[38:20] Speaker 6: This is access basing and overflight. And if we want
[38:22] Speaker 6: to do strikes in Iran, we have to be able
[38:24] Speaker 6: to fly over those partner nations countries with their permission.
[38:28] Speaker 6: Sure we could do it without the permission, but that
[38:30] Speaker 6: would be destructive to that relationship. So we need to
[38:32] Speaker 6: have those deep ties there. And like you were mentioning
[38:34] Speaker 6: mark with Saudi Arabia, before the war started, Saudi Arabia
[38:37] Speaker 6: was inching closer toward a warming of relations between Iran
[38:43] Speaker 6: and Saudi Arabia. They had sent, you know, their highest
[38:46] Speaker 6: level delegation in years. If you remember back a few
[38:48] Speaker 6: years ago, nim Or Nimmer was executed, which is a
[38:51] Speaker 6: Shia leader in Saudi Arabia. Was beheaded along with a
[38:54] Speaker 6: bunch of other folks that caused Iran to cut relations
[38:56] Speaker 6: with Saudi Arabia. So like this was getting repaired very
[38:59] Speaker 6: slowly and was getting back toward what the Saudi government wanted,
[39:02] Speaker 6: which was a more pragmatic approach to Gulf relations with Iran.
[39:06] Speaker 6: And of course they're also secretly negotiating with Israel as
[39:09] Speaker 6: well for a future recognition of Israel. So Saudi Arabia
[39:12] Speaker 6: is trying to you know, grow up in the region
[39:14] Speaker 6: with MBS in particular at the Helm and this kind
[39:17] Speaker 6: of muddy, that delicate negotiation going on behind the scenes
[39:20] Speaker 6: between Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Israel, and now Saudi Arabia
[39:24] Speaker 6: has to wait for that to settle before they can
[39:25] Speaker 6: get back there again because they're trying to modernize. They're
[39:28] Speaker 6: trying to change the state from what it was, you know,
[39:30] Speaker 6: in the previous monarchy, and now that's on hold, which
[39:34] Speaker 6: their government does not want. The same thing with the Emirates.
[39:37] Speaker 6: The Emirates are trying to do things as well to
[39:38] Speaker 6: change not just be an oil or you know, an
[39:40] Speaker 6: oil and gas dependent country for their economy, and that
[39:43] Speaker 6: has also been destroy I feel like what's going on
[39:44] Speaker 6: with Dubia's tourism industry. It's wrecked, and it's about risk
[39:48] Speaker 6: and do people want to go there and spend their
[39:50] Speaker 6: money there? Some will, but not the ones, not everybody
[39:53] Speaker 6: that was before. It's going to take a very long
[39:54] Speaker 6: time to build that trust again. And as you mentioned,
[39:58] Speaker 6: if we could sell this war in a better way
[39:59] Speaker 6: from the very beginning, we wouldn't have this discussion now
[40:02] Speaker 6: because those countries would have participated. Just like nineteen ninety
[40:05] Speaker 6: one when the US went to the Middle East and
[40:08] Speaker 6: asked Saudi Arabia and even Syria to join forces with
[40:11] Speaker 6: the United States against Saddam Hussein, and the Syrians sent
[40:14] Speaker 6: forces to fight against Saddam Hussein to kick them out Kuwait.
[40:18] Speaker 2: That was because we sold war else then in policy making, right, so.
[40:22] Speaker 6: We sold it to them because you couldn't just show
[40:24] Speaker 6: up to Damascus and be like, hey, come with us. Instead,
[40:26] Speaker 6: you had to have made a case that it's in
[40:28] Speaker 6: your interest, even though we're not great friends, it's in
[40:30] Speaker 6: your interest to come to this conflict with us.
[40:33] Speaker 1: And in that case Iraq and Iraq invaded a sovereign country.
[40:37] Speaker 2: But making your peverst position, your previous position. You know,
[40:40] Speaker 2: conceivably you would have been involved in the policy making
[40:43] Speaker 2: process saying, Okay, there's a run up to the war
[40:45] Speaker 2: in Iran, we have to do X, Y and Z
[40:47] Speaker 2: to get our allies on board. I'm going to take
[40:50] Speaker 2: a trip. It's the das D and I'm going to
[40:52] Speaker 2: do it. I'm going to do multiple stops in the region.
[40:54] Speaker 2: We're going to say that we're going to prep them
[40:55] Speaker 2: for this. We're going they're going to be fully involved
[40:57] Speaker 2: in this instead of just kind of, you know, kind
[41:01] Speaker 2: of we were winging it.
[41:04] Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, and I don't necessarily hold it against
[41:07] Speaker 3: the politician who has to respond to their public I'm
[41:09] Speaker 3: not even criticizing the decision from their point, but from
[41:13] Speaker 3: our point, from the Pentagon's point, then we have to
[41:15] Speaker 3: adjust because it is access basing an overflight, and if
[41:19] Speaker 3: we can't actually carry out an order that we're given
[41:22] Speaker 3: because we put all our assets in a country they
[41:23] Speaker 3: won't let them use this, then that's that's unacceptable. Doesn't
[41:27] Speaker 3: You can just take off whether you agree with the
[41:29] Speaker 3: war or not, But from the US military's ability to
[41:32] Speaker 3: carry out orders, they have to. So yeah, we should
[41:35] Speaker 3: have definitely sold it much better and.
[41:39] Speaker 2: That would have been a policy process. There would have
[41:41] Speaker 2: been NSC meetings, and then you know, the action items
[41:43] Speaker 2: coming from this would be the you know, the civilians
[41:46] Speaker 2: the side of the Pentagon, and the State Department would
[41:48] Speaker 2: start prepping our allies months in advance for this. Oh yeah, yeah,
[41:51] Speaker 2: and you know there's a way to.
[41:52] Speaker 3: Do this with the embassy and everything.
[41:54] Speaker 1: Yep. I don't think actually selling this war would have worked,
[42:01] Speaker 1: to be frank, I don't think the United States would
[42:03] Speaker 1: be Are the people of the United States to be
[42:05] Speaker 1: interested in that? Maybe they could have just broadcast Bbe's
[42:08] Speaker 1: power point in the situation room a month before we
[42:11] Speaker 1: struck our in maybe that.
[42:12] Speaker 6: I think there's always a way, because we invaded Iraq
[42:14] Speaker 6: in two thousand and three on a completely false pretense
[42:17] Speaker 6: that we sold very well and we were able to
[42:20] Speaker 6: get people to join us, So I mean it's possible.
[42:22] Speaker 6: So hey, if we do it, maybe they'll come.
[42:25] Speaker 1: I think the information environment is completely different now.
[42:28] Speaker 4: I think it's a different world than the fevered atmosphere
[42:32] Speaker 4: of post nine eleven. I mean, yes, it was, it
[42:35] Speaker 4: was eighteen months, but it was a different country, right,
[42:38] Speaker 4: and everyone was still nine eleven focused. Everyone suddenly on
[42:44] Speaker 4: foreign policy. That focus has gone, that interest has gone.
[42:48] Speaker 2: Mick, Mick, do you remember we were watching in the
[42:50] Speaker 2: team house up in the Northern Rock Colin Palace speech
[42:54] Speaker 2: and we're all like, We're all like, what the hell
[42:56] Speaker 2: is he talking about?
[42:57] Speaker 3: We must not be read into this line of you know,
[43:00] Speaker 3: it was love coming out of the two places we
[43:03] Speaker 3: were at.
[43:03] Speaker 1: Wild talking about if you guys are in northern Iraq
[43:07] Speaker 1: and he's shaking the anthrax file thing.
[43:09] Speaker 3: Yeah, team leader. He used to get called by the
[43:11] Speaker 3: White House all the time.
[43:13] Speaker 2: But it was a quick deviation because we did have
[43:15] Speaker 2: actually I don't know if we had, I think the
[43:16] Speaker 2: other the other guys did. We could get Turkish porn.
[43:20] Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I just got it like this, So we
[43:22] Speaker 2: had to just a little diversion from Turkish porn to
[43:24] Speaker 2: watch Colin Palace speech.
[43:27] Speaker 4: I don't even that's an image I just can't shake loose.
[43:32] Speaker 4: We didn't watch Turkish and porn two words that don't
[43:35] Speaker 4: belong together a good old days.
[43:38] Speaker 3: But we had a lot of as Yeah. But yeah,
[43:40] Speaker 3: I remember when our team later I don't know if
[43:42] Speaker 3: we name him, but used to get called by the
[43:44] Speaker 3: White House on these topics. Yeah, and he used to
[43:46] Speaker 3: stand there at attention, which you should.
[43:50] Speaker 2: I but but there was definitely a lot of what
[43:54] Speaker 2: the healthy talking got.
[43:57] Speaker 3: Is there another c I A.
[43:59] Speaker 2: Yeah, got some good ship going on, not us.
[44:02] Speaker 1: Yeah, that's fucking crazy, guys.
[44:06] Speaker 3: That's why I well, when it fell, they took us
[44:08] Speaker 3: to a lot of places where they said the chemical
[44:10] Speaker 3: weapons were. There was signs all over the place, and
[44:13] Speaker 3: there was nothing there. So I think, you know, not
[44:17] Speaker 3: to re litigate this, but you know, from our perspective,
[44:21] Speaker 3: we were collecting information that from people who should know,
[44:24] Speaker 3: who were telling us no, it's right there.
[44:26] Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, and it wasn't.
[44:28] Speaker 3: So it's more complicated than the US, you know, was deceptive.
[44:33] Speaker 3: It's it truly is more complicated.
[44:35] Speaker 1: I don't.
[44:37] Speaker 3: Yeah, we got it wrong, but it wasn't.
[44:39] Speaker 2: The Bush administration knew that Rock didn't have WMD. It wasn't.
[44:43] Speaker 2: It wasn't a lie. We just got the intelligence thing
[44:46] Speaker 2: completely wrong.
[44:47] Speaker 3: Yes, that's what I'm getting.
[44:48] Speaker 2: But there was there was no manipulating, you know, it's
[44:51] Speaker 2: I mean, it was just it was just wrong. Now,
[44:54] Speaker 2: some of the some of the reporting streams were bullshit,
[44:56] Speaker 2: and we should have been done better on that. The
[44:58] Speaker 2: analyst maybe I'm putting too much on on them. But yeah,
[45:01] Speaker 2: this wasn't like Wolf of Wits and Bush were like,
[45:03] Speaker 2: let's let's deceive the American people. They actually thought very
[45:07] Speaker 2: much that when we were there, we just didn't.
[45:10] Speaker 1: But people were telling us that, guys, are we living
[45:16] Speaker 1: in the same fucking world right now? But like they
[45:19] Speaker 1: pushed it from the minute almost a minute nine to
[45:22] Speaker 1: eleven happened that we were going into Iraq, and they
[45:25] Speaker 1: basically molded the CIA to tell them what they wanted
[45:28] Speaker 1: to hear. You had analysts that were, you know, fighting
[45:31] Speaker 1: up against the what were the the tubes, the circular
[45:36] Speaker 1: tubes thing, what do you call it doesn't matter, the
[45:39] Speaker 1: stuff that actually enriches uranium, like interfusions. I don't know
[45:44] Speaker 1: how Yes, thank you, John. I don't know how you
[45:46] Speaker 1: can really say with a straight face that the Bush
[45:48] Speaker 1: administration didn't deceive the American people.
[45:53] Speaker 2: Think you can. Every every Iraqi senior regime official I
[45:56] Speaker 2: talked to thought they had w m D.
[45:58] Speaker 3: That's what I'm saying, that's where we collect information from.
[46:01] Speaker 5: We didn't.
[46:02] Speaker 1: We didn't.
[46:02] Speaker 3: We didn't have Saddam on the books.
[46:05] Speaker 2: Some really high level folks, and they thought they had it,
[46:07] Speaker 2: and that's it's an incredible deception campaign by Saddam himself.
[46:10] Speaker 2: But this is a separate issue. Yeah, and the CEE
[46:14] Speaker 2: I failed in this, Like analytically we failed. You know,
[46:16] Speaker 2: there were certain streams that you put too much weight on,
[46:18] Speaker 2: and there's I mean, but it's a it's a it's
[46:20] Speaker 2: a little more complicated story.
[46:22] Speaker 1: Frankly, I don't want to give enough. I don't want
[46:24] Speaker 1: to give that much guff the CIA, because you guys
[46:26] Speaker 1: are doing your job and you're supposed to get the
[46:27] Speaker 1: information I try to. I guess I'm giving more guff
[46:30] Speaker 1: to the administration because they cherry picked fucking evidence and
[46:33] Speaker 1: intel that wasn't confirmed and put it in a state
[46:36] Speaker 1: union speech about yellow cake in Niger, like what you
[46:41] Speaker 1: know they received the fucking American people. Let's let's just
[46:44] Speaker 1: make sure that's that's I'm putting that on record at least.
[46:49] Speaker 5: Noted.
[46:51] Speaker 1: Thank you, Mick.
[46:53] Speaker 4: It's an interesting topic though, I mean, the because there's
[46:58] Speaker 4: a parallel now right, I mean, if you have the
[47:02] Speaker 4: most anodyne approach to this, it's if you have a
[47:05] Speaker 4: political stance, and the political stance was he you know,
[47:09] Speaker 4: Saddam's a bad guy. He's disruptive to the region and
[47:14] Speaker 4: he needs to go all right, not necessarily in the
[47:17] Speaker 4: farious objective, right, And then you have that, and then
[47:22] Speaker 4: there's a dual bias. Right, you are asking the questions
[47:26] Speaker 4: that confirm that bias from your intelligence agency and intelligence community,
[47:32] Speaker 4: and they they're finding that information because it is there,
[47:35] Speaker 4: but they're focusing the collection assets on that.
[47:38] Speaker 2: So there's that.
[47:39] Speaker 4: And then the feedback loop is such that as the
[47:42] Speaker 4: information comes forward, it's also given that political filter because
[47:46] Speaker 4: it fits you know, it fits their agenda without there
[47:52] Speaker 4: being conscious deception in that process. And it's kind of
[47:56] Speaker 4: the same thing that led to seven October. Right, you
[48:00] Speaker 4: see a lot of conspiracy theories. Now, oh, hey Netnya,
[48:04] Speaker 4: who sacrificed the border communities, they knew it was coming,
[48:07] Speaker 4: they wanted it to happen. I don't for a moment
[48:09] Speaker 4: believe that's true. But that same bias was taking place. Hey,
[48:15] Speaker 4: we don't we want Hamas to remain in place because
[48:18] Speaker 4: the alternative is the Palestinian authority. If it's Palestinian authority,
[48:22] Speaker 4: then now we've got to start talking about a two
[48:24] Speaker 4: state solution. Harmas psycho But on the other hand, they're
[48:29] Speaker 4: contained right they are. They're firmly contained. That contained both
[48:34] Speaker 4: militarily and that contained because we're.
[48:36] Speaker 5: Giving them economic scentives.
[48:38] Speaker 4: Right, That was the political stance, and the military, as
[48:43] Speaker 4: shouldn't bet is the well, either told to stand down
[48:46] Speaker 4: on collection or the collection they produced was filtered to
[48:50] Speaker 4: confirm that bias. Without anyone saying, Hey, this attack's going
[48:54] Speaker 4: to happen, but let's just shut the fuck up and
[48:56] Speaker 4: let it happen.
[48:57] Speaker 5: You know, I wouldn't.
[48:59] Speaker 4: I don't believe for a moment anyone said that. But
[49:03] Speaker 4: the information coming up, if it had been filtered correctly,
[49:07] Speaker 4: was clearly indicating exactly what.
[49:09] Speaker 5: Was going to happen, right for eighteen months private the attack.
[49:15] Speaker 6: It's the same with any intelligence failure, even the nine
[49:17] Speaker 6: to eleven situation. I mean, when I was training to
[49:19] Speaker 6: be a kind of intelligence station, that was one of
[49:21] Speaker 6: the cases we studied, was like the nineteen ninety three
[49:23] Speaker 6: bombing of World Trade Center and then from that leading
[49:25] Speaker 6: up to nine to eleven, and just the volume of
[49:28] Speaker 6: intelligence that did exist that did indicate like this was
[49:31] Speaker 6: being planned. It was the resources of being accumulated, people
[49:34] Speaker 6: were being positioned, That all existed, but it was just
[49:36] Speaker 6: the way that we collected it in that moment didn't
[49:39] Speaker 6: work in the way that it should have worked, and
[49:41] Speaker 6: it led to an intelligence failure. And I think a
[49:43] Speaker 6: lot of intelligence failures are like that, where we look
[49:44] Speaker 6: back and we're like, oh, there was a that's a
[49:46] Speaker 6: data point right there, but in the moment, you just
[49:49] Speaker 6: you can't see it like that because you don't you
[49:50] Speaker 6: can't predict every possible outcome and direction that the intelligence
[49:53] Speaker 6: is going to lead.
[49:54] Speaker 4: You. Yeah, that that's a different that's I mean, absolutely correct,
[49:59] Speaker 4: that's a different coolest tho. And that's one of the
[50:01] Speaker 4: big challenges, right, is that indications in trying to trying
[50:08] Speaker 4: to and you guys, no far out of eno to pose,
[50:11] Speaker 4: but interpreting indications right that afterwards seem unambiguous, but at
[50:16] Speaker 4: the time where anything but unambiguous.
[50:19] Speaker 5: How's that for a double negative?
[50:21] Speaker 6: It's true, when you get these walking sources to the embassy,
[50:23] Speaker 6: for example, you're gonna get a thousand of these guys
[50:25] Speaker 6: saying wild things. One of them might be telling you
[50:27] Speaker 6: something totally true, but it sounds also wild, just like
[50:30] Speaker 6: the other nine hundred ninety nine wild reports, and it's
[50:32] Speaker 6: very difficult to figure out, like which of these was
[50:34] Speaker 6: actually credible, especially for walkin that you have no previous vetting,
[50:38] Speaker 6: no previous knowledge of this person. What they what are
[50:40] Speaker 6: they there for? Are they a double? Are they a dangle?
[50:43] Speaker 6: And it's so hard to figure that out, especially if
[50:45] Speaker 6: it's like a short term like hey, this is going
[50:47] Speaker 6: to happen in forty eight hours kind of thing. It's
[50:49] Speaker 6: it's very, very difficult to actually figure out the credibility
[50:51] Speaker 6: of that individual.
[50:52] Speaker 1: In the moment, guys want to touch on the NATO
[50:54] Speaker 1: summit that's coming up a little bit, like what to expect.
[50:57] Speaker 1: I always spoke about it a little bit, but what
[51:01] Speaker 1: do you guys expect to be coming out of.
[51:02] Speaker 3: This, Well, there's going to be a lot to talk about.
[51:06] Speaker 3: What we just talked about. Is the US going to
[51:09] Speaker 3: redeployed forces from certain countries either back home or to
[51:14] Speaker 3: other countries that they're more favorable to at least at
[51:18] Speaker 3: the time. If anything, the US should be plus enough
[51:22] Speaker 3: our capacity in Europe to send a strong message to Putin.
[51:26] Speaker 3: But also because the world's an unstable place. Part of
[51:30] Speaker 3: what we caused, and I don't mean that necessarily in
[51:34] Speaker 3: a negative thing, but we're at war and Iran and
[51:37] Speaker 3: right now. I mean, we haven't touched on Iran too
[51:40] Speaker 3: much on this one, but there's a lot of people
[51:43] Speaker 3: who believe this MoU is simply a means to replenish
[51:47] Speaker 3: the global energy supply to get past the mid term
[51:52] Speaker 3: elections and then it's kicking back. And I know a
[51:54] Speaker 3: lot of friends who hope that's actually the case, because
[51:57] Speaker 3: they really don't like the MoU, and I think they
[51:59] Speaker 3: have good reason to believe to not like it. So
[52:03] Speaker 3: this isn't over, is my point, right. I wish it
[52:07] Speaker 3: was in the sense that Iran would agree with a
[52:09] Speaker 3: new nuclear agreement and then that's that. But it doesn't
[52:14] Speaker 3: look like they're coming anywhere close to that, and it
[52:16] Speaker 3: doesn't look like they're coming anywhere close to relinquishing control
[52:19] Speaker 3: of the straight upromos. I think we're at about lower
[52:23] Speaker 3: than sixty ships a day, it's normally around one hundred
[52:26] Speaker 3: and twenty. And Iran is making a lot of money
[52:30] Speaker 3: selling its energy. So I'm attaching the two because we
[52:35] Speaker 3: need to if you look at our conversation, we need
[52:38] Speaker 3: to send a clear message to Russia and we can
[52:41] Speaker 3: do that by presence in Europe and NATO. We need
[52:45] Speaker 3: to be prepared for this thing to kick back off
[52:48] Speaker 3: in Iran. Obviously we hope it doesn't, but I don't
[52:51] Speaker 3: see an indication that this is headed toward a resolution
[52:55] Speaker 3: that's acceptable to the United States.
[52:57] Speaker 2: One thing that I heard in Jonathan and the Curious
[53:01] Speaker 2: if you agree with this, is that there's more than
[53:03] Speaker 2: likely for the rest there is a possibility for the
[53:06] Speaker 2: rest of the Trump administration that this is the status
[53:09] Speaker 2: quo right now and it's just you know, plus sixty
[53:12] Speaker 2: plus sixty plus sixty whatever, just kicking the can down
[53:15] Speaker 2: the road. And so there's the argument that Okay, after
[53:17] Speaker 2: the mid terms the Republicans take a shellaking, Trump won't
[53:21] Speaker 2: give a shit anymore, and so he'll he'll go at
[53:23] Speaker 2: it again. I'm not sure that's actually true.
[53:26] Speaker 4: Uh.
[53:26] Speaker 2: It could also be that it's just going to stay
[53:29] Speaker 2: this way, which is enormously unstable, and in some ways
[53:34] Speaker 2: that is because I think Trump has lost interest in
[53:36] Speaker 2: this totally. One other quick point on the NATO summit,
[53:40] Speaker 2: I think d that ultimately Europe is holding its breath
[53:43] Speaker 2: and if you know, it's just it's just, you know,
[53:45] Speaker 2: how bad can this be? Is Trump going to make
[53:48] Speaker 2: you know? It is going to be so disruptive let's
[53:50] Speaker 2: just you know, it's a it's holding your breath to
[53:52] Speaker 2: get get this, get past this. You know, he there
[53:55] Speaker 2: was not even an expectation that he would attend, but
[53:57] Speaker 2: of course Airdwan he's doing it for his fellow auto
[54:00] Speaker 2: pratic buddy. But it's just it's holding your breath and
[54:03] Speaker 2: you know, good God, what's going to happen? How bad
[54:05] Speaker 2: can it be? Is there anything embarrassing coming out of this?
[54:08] Speaker 2: Because at the end of the day, I do think that,
[54:10] Speaker 2: you know, when I was just in Sweden, I saw
[54:12] Speaker 2: the head of Swedish military. I mean, there's a notion
[54:14] Speaker 2: that again it's the idea hope America helps. Can't count
[54:18] Speaker 2: on them. You know, we're going at it as a
[54:21] Speaker 2: as a as europe only, so you know, we'll kind
[54:26] Speaker 2: of see where that goes. I mean, even as an American,
[54:28] Speaker 2: as a patriot like these, when Trump travels overseas, you
[54:32] Speaker 2: have no idea what's going to happen. You just you
[54:34] Speaker 2: just pray that it's not going to be embarrassing to us.
[54:35] Speaker 2: At least that's my view. And if something good happens,
[54:38] Speaker 2: that's just unusual. But that's what you hope for.
[54:44] Speaker 6: And also the enemy gets a vote. And that's the
[54:46] Speaker 6: thing with Iran right now and with Russia that we
[54:48] Speaker 6: could sit here and say, you know, in the next
[54:49] Speaker 6: six to eighteen months, we can do all these things
[54:52] Speaker 6: to prevent or do something to either of these actors.
[54:56] Speaker 6: But in the time that we're waiting and planning, they're
[54:58] Speaker 6: also waiting and planning, and in particular Iran, if they
[55:02] Speaker 6: get financial infusions during this period of time that we're
[55:05] Speaker 6: kicking the can down the road, that money is not
[55:07] Speaker 6: going to some static account and just collecting interest for them.
[55:09] Speaker 6: It's going to be spent on things to rebuild what
[55:12] Speaker 6: was damaged. And it's like Andy you've mentioned on previous
[55:14] Speaker 6: episode that you know and also you two maic if
[55:17] Speaker 6: we're giving them three hundred million dollars to reconstruct, well,
[55:20] Speaker 6: the things that were destroyed were not civilian infrastructure. They
[55:22] Speaker 6: were military infrastructure or dual use infrastructure that has a
[55:26] Speaker 6: military purpose. So that money is going to be going
[55:28] Speaker 6: back for them to reconstruct the things that we destroyed,
[55:31] Speaker 6: which are military structures, facilities, equipment, resources. They're going to
[55:35] Speaker 6: reposition those resources. Those resources are not for purely defensive purposes.
[55:39] Speaker 6: They are offensive weapons and structures and facilities and so on.
[55:42] Speaker 6: So they're going to be reconstituting the entire time. They're
[55:44] Speaker 6: also resilient in learning. They're learning from the mistakes that
[55:47] Speaker 6: they just suffered through in the last two months of
[55:49] Speaker 6: a meat grinder, teaching them new things, and they're going
[55:51] Speaker 6: to do them differently. They're going to rely more on
[55:53] Speaker 6: drones and so on and so forth, you know, as
[55:55] Speaker 6: far as strategy is concerned, and less on people the
[55:58] Speaker 6: next time this happens, because to them, there will be
[56:00] Speaker 6: a Part two. They're they're waiting for it. They're preparing
[56:03] Speaker 6: for it every day.
[56:04] Speaker 2: God know this. So so this this time period now,
[56:07] Speaker 2: I would think that US and Israeli military planner should
[56:10] Speaker 2: be concerned that Iran is reconstituting. So absolutely, if it's
[56:14] Speaker 2: the theory that okay, well they're going to kick it
[56:15] Speaker 2: off again post elections, well actually Iran has had time
[56:18] Speaker 2: to recover. That's actually a bad thing.
[56:20] Speaker 6: Yeah, that's why hes Bola's number one on the list
[56:22] Speaker 6: of stuff to be negotiated to be you know, hands off,
[56:25] Speaker 6: because they're seeing like, well, we need to reinforce the
[56:27] Speaker 6: surrogate forces around us, because that's going to be a
[56:30] Speaker 6: major component of Part two and you can see what
[56:32] Speaker 6: the houthis. Just yesterday, fifteen government forces in Yemen were
[56:35] Speaker 6: killed by this massive Houthy attack that was that was
[56:38] Speaker 6: actually pretty interesting if you want to read about the
[56:40] Speaker 6: tactics of it. That was very successful. It opened up
[56:42] Speaker 6: with sniper fire all over the place, kind of like
[56:45] Speaker 6: a mini Dnben Poo from Vietnam era, where they surrounded
[56:48] Speaker 6: them ahead of time and got stuff in there very smartly,
[56:50] Speaker 6: which means they're probably practicing that technique to use on
[56:53] Speaker 6: larger scale later, which I wouldn't be surprised to see. So,
[56:56] Speaker 6: and the Houthis don't have their own economy, you know,
[56:59] Speaker 6: they rely on to pay for them to a large degree.
[57:03] Speaker 6: So if Iran gets more of that money, they're going
[57:04] Speaker 6: to go support the Houthis. They're gonna support Hasbola, and
[57:06] Speaker 6: they're going to support forces in Syria and Iraq for
[57:09] Speaker 6: part two. That's that's in their mind, like, hey, we
[57:12] Speaker 6: are still surviving.
[57:15] Speaker 3: That's what's happening right now. And money is fungible. So
[57:18] Speaker 3: even if we released the three billion from Katar and
[57:23] Speaker 3: we get that's you know, food, then they don't have
[57:26] Speaker 3: to spend that much money on food, right, So it's
[57:29] Speaker 3: there's it's better that they're buying American goods, I suppose,
[57:32] Speaker 3: but it's not. It doesn't protect the money. It's still
[57:37] Speaker 3: they still can use the money that they're getting, for example,
[57:40] Speaker 3: selling in their oil to rebuild the realistic missile capability,
[57:44] Speaker 3: their suicide drone capability, and every other thing that they've
[57:47] Speaker 3: found to be most effective during Operation Epic period.
[57:50] Speaker 2: This is which costs and Cushners like this is insane.
[57:53] Speaker 2: The idea, like the idea of selling it because they're
[57:55] Speaker 2: buying US goods. It's just mind bogglingly stupid. And it's
[57:59] Speaker 2: this because you have two estate guys who just think
[58:01] Speaker 2: in these ways. And that's why we're going down this rye.
[58:03] Speaker 2: I mean, I find this to be I mean, it's
[58:05] Speaker 2: it's it's an argument is so easily uh kind of
[58:09] Speaker 2: you know, dissected because exactly what you said, any kind
[58:13] Speaker 2: of relief for the Iranians means they can reconstitute their
[58:15] Speaker 2: military period, end of story. There's no US stipulations, there's
[58:18] Speaker 2: nothing we can do it just and but but this
[58:21] Speaker 2: is I mean, you see the President, you see Kushner
[58:23] Speaker 2: and Wikoff keep talking about this that this is great
[58:26] Speaker 2: American farmers are going to benefit from the Iran deal. Like,
[58:28] Speaker 2: my head wants to explode when I hear that.
[58:32] Speaker 6: It's hilarius because they don't even eat corn. I mean,
[58:33] Speaker 6: this is just not part of the cuisine. It's like
[58:35] Speaker 6: we're gonna send American corn cob barrels over there, Like
[58:37] Speaker 6: what are we talking about?
[58:42] Speaker 5: Yeah?
[58:43] Speaker 4: Yeah, I think we can all agree that the decease
[58:46] Speaker 4: fu of the negotiations. It's just become a soup sandwich.
[58:51] Speaker 4: But I mean, he, you know, back to you a
[58:53] Speaker 4: question about the summit, which I think is a great topic.
[58:57] Speaker 4: When we started off with it, it was Mock's idea
[59:00] Speaker 4: and it hadn't occurred to me. But now I think
[59:02] Speaker 4: about it, it's really important.
[59:04] Speaker 5: I think, you know that who knows what us goals are.
[59:09] Speaker 4: But for Mark and I'm pretty mispronounced his named Rutter, right,
[59:14] Speaker 4: the Dutch guy.
[59:15] Speaker 2: The.
[59:17] Speaker 1: Head drops my daddy guy.
[59:19] Speaker 4: Yeah, So I mean he's gonna he's going to want
[59:24] Speaker 4: to emphasize the building on the five percent of GDP
[59:27] Speaker 4: pledge from the you know, from the Hague.
[59:31] Speaker 2: But he's gonna also want to.
[59:32] Speaker 4: Tell the US, say, look, the Europe's already embarking on
[59:35] Speaker 4: this goal.
[59:36] Speaker 5: European nations.
[59:37] Speaker 4: But he's going to want to secure a an agreement
[59:41] Speaker 4: from the US clarity on what exactly has been a
[59:46] Speaker 4: commitment to keep a number of these enablers in theater.
[59:50] Speaker 2: Right.
[59:50] Speaker 4: You know, the troops says that I said, have taken
[59:53] Speaker 4: care of to a certain extent by US law. But
[59:56] Speaker 4: things like i SR long range strike, ballistic missile defense, EDAW,
[1:00:02] Speaker 4: air refueling, all those things, strategical left, command and control,
[1:00:06] Speaker 4: all of those things are key enablers that the US
[1:00:09] Speaker 4: provides to NATO. That you know, there's troops are easy
[1:00:13] Speaker 4: to count, so there's a lot of focus on that,
[1:00:15] Speaker 4: but there aren't. But again, those are the those are
[1:00:18] Speaker 4: the really significant capabilities that the United States is providing
[1:00:23] Speaker 4: most likely to be used in NATO short of actual
[1:00:27] Speaker 4: outer and out war and certainly in out in our war.
[1:00:30] Speaker 4: But I mean the troops are just there almost as a.
[1:00:33] Speaker 5: Token presence, let's let's be honest.
[1:00:36] Speaker 4: So the five percent, and he's going to be wanting
[1:00:38] Speaker 4: to to get an agreement, a firm agreement from the
[1:00:40] Speaker 4: US on those enablers. And he's going to want to
[1:00:44] Speaker 4: I mean, Zelenski's attending, right, so he's going to want
[1:00:47] Speaker 4: to Rutter is going to want to be able to say, hey,
[1:00:54] Speaker 4: his art commitment, his NATO's commitment, whether it's continuation of Pearl,
[1:00:59] Speaker 4: and then agreements outside that to keep both string Ukraine
[1:01:05] Speaker 4: against Russia. I mean, I imagine that those are his goals.
[1:01:09] Speaker 4: Turkey is going to be pushing for the F thirty fives.
[1:01:13] Speaker 4: By the way, I thought they weren't allowed F thirty
[1:01:15] Speaker 4: fives because they have the S four hundred.
[1:01:18] Speaker 2: I thought that, but Trump said it that's small. I mean,
[1:01:25] Speaker 2: it doesn't matter, and he keep.
[1:01:28] Speaker 1: Talking about US law like this administration gives a funk
[1:01:31] Speaker 1: about that.
[1:01:31] Speaker 4: But that's going to cause problems A for the Israelis.
[1:01:34] Speaker 5: Well, I mean, I know we care about that a
[1:01:36] Speaker 5: lot D D does, But no.
[1:01:39] Speaker 4: I meant the Israelis is going to be pissed off
[1:01:40] Speaker 4: about that. But not just the Israelis, UAE and Saudi
[1:01:43] Speaker 4: Arabia who have run into issues.
[1:01:45] Speaker 5: On the F thirty five for you know, some for
[1:01:49] Speaker 5: similar reasons.
[1:01:50] Speaker 2: And there's there's there's something to be said for goals,
[1:01:54] Speaker 2: and so again, the whole bunch of folks here have
[1:01:56] Speaker 2: been involved in policy making before, whether tip of the
[1:01:59] Speaker 2: spear or whether back or both back in Washington. But
[1:02:03] Speaker 2: ordinarily you go into a you go into meetings like
[1:02:06] Speaker 2: this with a set of hopes, expectations, objectives. Trump changes.
[1:02:11] Speaker 2: If you you know, I've been reading Regime Change, this
[1:02:13] Speaker 2: is the book by Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman. It's
[1:02:16] Speaker 2: fascinating because Trump literally just goes on a whim. He
[1:02:19] Speaker 2: changes course, changes directions, and it throws everyone into it,
[1:02:23] Speaker 2: you know, completely for a loop. And that is what
[1:02:25] Speaker 2: can happen here. That's why everyone is nervous on these things.
[1:02:28] Speaker 2: We don't know and there might be something, you know,
[1:02:31] Speaker 2: on the plane they're gonna fly over Cutty. Actually they
[1:02:34] Speaker 2: won't take the Cuttery Force one, which flew over my
[1:02:36] Speaker 2: house the other day, by the way, twice, really the
[1:02:39] Speaker 2: new Cutvery plane. I was sitting on my deck and
[1:02:40] Speaker 2: I say, this giant seven forty seven flying over me.
[1:02:45] Speaker 2: But but you know, we just don't know what what
[1:02:47] Speaker 2: Trump's going to do. That's that's just and that to
[1:02:49] Speaker 2: me is incredible.
[1:02:50] Speaker 4: I mean, Mick, you were.
[1:02:51] Speaker 2: Sating up a policy. Can you imagine me at the
[1:02:53] Speaker 2: Pentagon right now in a policy position and you don't
[1:02:56] Speaker 2: know what true social posts or what what's going to
[1:02:59] Speaker 2: be from a little oval office, you know, session on
[1:03:01] Speaker 2: an app and and you're going to get ship rolling
[1:03:03] Speaker 2: downhill to you, and you have to now implement which
[1:03:05] Speaker 2: can be one hundred and eighty degrees different what you
[1:03:07] Speaker 2: were doing literally two hours ago.
[1:03:10] Speaker 3: Yeah, it's I mean, it's a challenge. We've talked about
[1:03:12] Speaker 3: the need for the NSC policy process, coordination process to restart.
[1:03:20] Speaker 3: It's never too late, right, let's do it now maybe
[1:03:23] Speaker 3: and and get some of the career professionals back there.
[1:03:26] Speaker 3: But I just don't see, that's not appen. That's not
[1:03:29] Speaker 3: gonna happen. I think Secretary of Rubio would want it
[1:03:31] Speaker 3: to happen. I mean, he's technically the National Security Advisor
[1:03:36] Speaker 3: if because he doesn't well, I think General Keane would
[1:03:41] Speaker 3: be great if they're looking for a national security advisor.
[1:03:43] Speaker 3: I don't know.
[1:03:44] Speaker 4: So we go to what's that buddy, they're going to
[1:03:51] Speaker 4: clear up the reflecting pool?
[1:03:53] Speaker 5: First?
[1:03:55] Speaker 2: Did you see did you guys send it to me?
[1:03:56] Speaker 2: Someone else send me? So there's there was people who
[1:03:58] Speaker 2: made was it in our chat? Jellow shot?
[1:04:00] Speaker 3: Yeah, the jealous shot.
[1:04:03] Speaker 2: That was amazing, green yellow shot.
[1:04:06] Speaker 3: Friend of mine said that to me it was a
[1:04:09] Speaker 3: Trump supporter by the way, it's just funny. It's funny.
[1:04:12] Speaker 1: Yeah, right, boys, anything else we did it. We did
[1:04:18] Speaker 1: a lot. I never feel good after these conversations, but
[1:04:21] Speaker 1: we did do a lot.
[1:04:22] Speaker 2: I went. I was on DC yesterday. I went to
[1:04:24] Speaker 2: the Nats game and started eleven am. It was about
[1:04:26] Speaker 2: one hundred and fifteen by the time we left it, too.
[1:04:28] Speaker 5: It was hot.
[1:04:31] Speaker 3: It was hot seventy five degrees out here.
[1:04:33] Speaker 1: In Jealous it's been a it's been really hot in
[1:04:37] Speaker 1: New York too, it's been one hundred degrees and disgusting.
[1:04:40] Speaker 1: I was looking at like Copenhagen in places like that
[1:04:42] Speaker 1: where it's like sixty five degrees. I'm like, fuck, why
[1:04:45] Speaker 1: can't it be like this here? Sorry? We again, by
[1:04:49] Speaker 1: the way, us playing Belgium. Yeah all right, yeah, So
[1:04:58] Speaker 1: I want everyone to go and check out Mix. You
[1:05:01] Speaker 1: guys talked about stoicism. He's got a stoicism podcast called
[1:05:04] Speaker 1: The Pub and the Porch Applied Stoicism. Those links are
[1:05:07] Speaker 1: in the description. Andy Milvern's got a great book that's
[1:05:10] Speaker 1: coming out soon. Very excited. He sent me the the
[1:05:14] Speaker 1: uh cover and the back cover, like, uh, you know, summary,
[1:05:19] Speaker 1: it's going to be a really good one. You've worked
[1:05:20] Speaker 1: very very diligently on it, I would say, Andy, and
[1:05:23] Speaker 1: I'm extremely extremely excited for it. Can we say what
[1:05:26] Speaker 1: it's called or no? Yeah, yeah, I don't want to
[1:05:31] Speaker 1: overstep Warren Gaza Warren Gaza seven October and it's aftermath
[1:05:36] Speaker 1: and account from both sides. What do you think I
[1:05:38] Speaker 1: just spaced out just now a little prizes, No, I
[1:05:42] Speaker 1: got my phone.
[1:05:43] Speaker 4: Yeah, first first installments on first chapter one is on substack.
[1:05:48] Speaker 4: Now it's about the lead up to the attacks.
[1:05:54] Speaker 1: It's very good. It's that first chapter is really good,
[1:05:57] Speaker 1: incredible because you see what's going on on the ground
[1:06:00] Speaker 1: and the confusion and like, you know, people that want
[1:06:03] Speaker 1: to bring it up to higher but the mid levels
[1:06:06] Speaker 1: are like no, you know, it's it's an interesting look
[1:06:09] Speaker 1: at it. I'm very excited about it. I'm sure it'll
[1:06:11] Speaker 1: get a lot of people upset, Andy, which is fine.
[1:06:14] Speaker 1: They'll get over it.
[1:06:16] Speaker 4: Made made a huge effort to make it a very
[1:06:19] Speaker 4: I uh.
[1:06:22] Speaker 1: Already call it crazy.
[1:06:28] Speaker 6: Yeah, is that BB calling to ask about it?
[1:06:32] Speaker 4: Yeah?
[1:06:32] Speaker 1: When it when? When it is? When is this going
[1:06:35] Speaker 1: to be out?
[1:06:36] Speaker 4: It's not going to be out until the end of
[1:06:39] Speaker 4: the year, early next early next year.
[1:06:41] Speaker 2: That's the problem.
[1:06:41] Speaker 4: With using Hey make by the way, I'm going to
[1:06:43] Speaker 4: get back to you on self published a different you know,
[1:06:47] Speaker 4: the after action from Gaza because the gazet book separate
[1:06:52] Speaker 4: the one I've written. I'm committed to a publisher. I'm
[1:06:55] Speaker 4: going to say good things about the publisher.
[1:06:56] Speaker 5: They've been great.
[1:06:57] Speaker 4: But the problem is that when you that, when you
[1:06:59] Speaker 4: submit a minute script, there's a delay and for the
[1:07:03] Speaker 4: editing process. It's not just the editing process, but it's
[1:07:06] Speaker 4: lining up to get a slot. I guess unless you're
[1:07:08] Speaker 4: a really big name, and I'm not a really big
[1:07:11] Speaker 4: name obviously, so yeah, it's a leista. It's gonna be
[1:07:15] Speaker 4: about a six month wait, all right.
[1:07:18] Speaker 1: So keep an eye out for that. Of course, your
[1:07:19] Speaker 1: autobiography When of the Tempets gathers great book. Check that out.
[1:07:23] Speaker 1: All the links for Andy Supstack and the book down
[1:07:26] Speaker 1: in the description. Jonathan Hackett, he's got two great books
[1:07:29] Speaker 1: as well. I ran Shadow Weapons and The Theory of
[1:07:32] Speaker 1: a Regular Warfare, very good books. Jonathan, of course is
[1:07:36] Speaker 1: our resident smart guy. And Mark p. You have a book,
[1:07:39] Speaker 1: Clarity and Crisis that came out a while ago. Though
[1:07:43] Speaker 1: five years when are you doing another one? Not nice? Okay?
[1:07:47] Speaker 1: So if you want to watch, check out Mark's links.
[1:07:49] Speaker 1: He's earning the description as well. He's also on MS.
[1:07:52] Speaker 1: Now you know, MS not as any fucking plugs from us.
[1:07:54] Speaker 1: They should plug us.
[1:07:56] Speaker 2: I'm on tomorrow morning talking about this straight. I just
[1:07:58] Speaker 2: got a note.
[1:08:00] Speaker 1: And if you want to support the show, Patreon dot com,
[1:08:03] Speaker 1: slash the Teamhouse and of course the white Fish Security.
[1:08:06] Speaker 1: So I'm to check it out. That link is in
[1:08:08] Speaker 1: a description as well. Guys, A pleasure as Allly.
[1:08:13] Speaker 7: Hey, guys, I want to take a moment to tell
[1:08:15] Speaker 7: you about the Team House Podcast Newsletter. If you go
[1:08:18] Speaker 7: and subscribe, it's totally free, and what it will do
[1:08:22] Speaker 7: is aggregate all of our data, all of our content
[1:08:25] Speaker 7: that we put out, the things that are on the Teamhouse,
[1:08:29] Speaker 7: on our geopolitics podcast, Eyes On, things that I write
[1:08:33] Speaker 7: journalistically with Sean Naylor on the high Side, anything else
[1:08:38] Speaker 7: that we have going on books, we recommend upcoming guests
[1:08:42] Speaker 7: that we have coming on the show, and also you know,
[1:08:45] Speaker 7: filtering in some fun stuff in there as well. If
[1:08:49] Speaker 7: you go and check it out, we send it out
[1:08:50] Speaker 7: just once a week. We don't want to spam you, guys.
[1:08:53] Speaker 7: It's just a kind of roll up of all of
[1:08:55] Speaker 7: our content on a weekly basis. You can find our
[1:08:58] Speaker 7: newsletter at teamhouse podcast dot kit dot com slash join again.
[1:09:04] Speaker 7: The website for that is teamhouse podcast, dot kit dot
[1:09:08] Speaker 7: com slash join uh so we hope to see you there.
[1:09:11] Speaker 2: The link will be down the description
[1:10:01] Speaker 5: Assass

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