# So Is It Just For Oil in Venezuela? | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

An episode of [The Team House](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1492797340), 22 Dec 2025, 52 min.

Audio: https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/pscrb.fm/rss/p/clrtpod.com/m/api.spreaker.com/download/episode/69157177/eyes_on_tariffs_2025_05_25_14_07_33_copy_2025_11_16_13_23_14_copy_1.mp3

In this episode of Eyes on Geopolitics, the hosts discuss various pressing global issues, including U.S. military posturing in Venezuela, the humanitarian crisis in Israel and Gaza, the implications of unlawful military orders, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and Russia. They explore the complexities of international relations, military strategy, and the legal ramifications of military actions, while also addressing the challenges faced by military leaders and the geopolitical landscape. GhostBed⬇️ https://www.ghostbed.com/house FOR 25% off! Support the show on Patreon:⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse Subscribe to our new newsletter!!!! https://teamhousepodcast.kit.com/join New merch, patches, and stickers! ⬇️ https://theteamhouse-shop.fourthwall.com Check out Mick's new podcast here:⬇️ Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/pub-and-porch-applied-stoicism/id1836955475 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1k3QPmkAMwnGJxMLDwUSSd?si=n6piIu8XRcag1Z0K43A3bQ Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCd0Hq6QFk8CoTu5j-VU0Ong Find Mick Mulroy here: Fogbow ⬇️ https://fogbow.com/ Lobo Institute ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/ Twitter ⬇️ https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCA LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/ Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.social Mick’s publications ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/publications/publications-of-michael-mick-patrick-mulroy/ Find Andy Milburn here: Twitter ⬇️ https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8 LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023 Substack ⬇️ https://amilburn.substack.com/ Andy’s book ⬇️ https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.social Find Jason Lyons here: LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?u Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.social "Karl Casey @ White Bat Audio" 00:00 START 01:29 U.S. Posturing Towards Venezuela's Oil 08:01 Military Ethics and Unlawful Orders 16:24 Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza and International Response 24:38 Military Strategy and Resource Allocation 31:40 Challenges in Peacekeeping and Governance 35:42 The Role of National Guards in Foreign Operations 37:39 The Ongoing Conflict in Ukraine and Russia 44:14 The Future of Russian Aggression and European Response Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support.

## Transcript

[0:01] Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics.
[0:05] Speaker 1: I'm Dimiticon Tacos. I'm here with my friends, Mick Mulroy,
[0:08] Speaker 1: Jason Lyons. Christmas week, so Merry Christmas to everybody. We
[0:13] Speaker 1: won't see you until next week, so enjoy that happy
[0:16] Speaker 1: Hanukkah to our our Jewish brothers and everything else, quansa everything,
[0:21] Speaker 1: all the happy holidays. You're here. Welcome Jason.
[0:26] Speaker 2: And I'd just like to say, before anybody pointed out
[0:29] Speaker 2: this Mermaid T shirt, my granddaughter's fourth birthday. She made
[0:32] Speaker 2: us all were Mermaid stuff, So I have a Mermaid
[0:35] Speaker 2: security T shirt on.
[0:36] Speaker 3: So anybody's questioning me my question here now, I don't
[0:41] Speaker 3: have the best question, right.
[0:44] Speaker 1: That's hilarious. So what do we got? We got a
[0:48] Speaker 1: couple of things, some housekeeping, mixed new podcast, probably the
[0:52] Speaker 1: porch Ploid Stoicism. That link is in the description. Check
[0:55] Speaker 1: that out. New episodes every Monday. Great podcast. Listen to
[0:59] Speaker 1: every episode. I'm trying to figure out my life and
[1:01] Speaker 1: be a little bit more stoic. It's not working, but
[1:03] Speaker 1: it's a work in progress. Jason lines his links are
[1:07] Speaker 1: down in the description to an Andy Milburn. He's traveling.
[1:10] Speaker 1: He's all over the place with those big muscles. He's
[1:12] Speaker 1: low's links are down in description as well. Okay, now
[1:18] Speaker 1: a lot happening, crazy stuff happening, but there's nothing like
[1:22] Speaker 1: we haven't started bombing Venezuela yet, even though we are positioning,
[1:25] Speaker 1: are posturing ourselves to do that. We have been for months.
[1:29] Speaker 1: Let's just kick off with that. Another oil tanker was
[1:32] Speaker 1: seized yesterday, I believe in the Caribbean, a Venezuelan tanker
[1:36] Speaker 1: that was Chinese owned oil. So the US is still
[1:39] Speaker 1: going after the oil supply and stuff like that. There
[1:42] Speaker 1: has been a lot of talk. I've seen the memes.
[1:45] Speaker 1: I'm sure you guys have too, where it's like, you know,
[1:49] Speaker 1: at least back in two thousand and three or two
[1:51] Speaker 1: thousand and two, leading up to Iraq, we didn't really
[1:53] Speaker 1: talk about, you know, going after this country for oil
[1:57] Speaker 1: pertaining to Iraq. Now it's just to be out right
[2:00] Speaker 1: out there like, yeah, we're doing this for the oil,
[2:03] Speaker 1: like and the memes are there, and it's it's you know,
[2:06] Speaker 1: it's hard not to notice that, right, We've talked about
[2:09] Speaker 1: it before. They have, you know, the most oil one
[2:12] Speaker 1: of the most high most oil reserves in the in
[2:15] Speaker 1: the in the world. So yeah, we're still I feel
[2:20] Speaker 1: like it's a holding pattern, and they really want to
[2:22] Speaker 1: get some nice you know videos of like operators and
[2:26] Speaker 1: coast these boarding ships and stuff like that make where
[2:31] Speaker 1: are you? What are you hearing about this? Where are
[2:33] Speaker 1: you at?
[2:35] Speaker 3: And so starting with your point on stolen oil, the
[2:40] Speaker 3: looks like what the president's referring to is back in
[2:44] Speaker 3: the seventies, you know, a lot of US OL companies
[2:48] Speaker 3: were the ones doing all the work, but in all
[2:51] Speaker 3: the infrastructure, we're getting all the oil, and it was
[2:53] Speaker 3: a cooperative agreement with the government of Venezuela. And then
[2:57] Speaker 3: the government of Venezuela said the heck that we're just
[3:01] Speaker 3: going to take all this stuff. Even though so I mean,
[3:05] Speaker 3: I'll leave it to some international lawyer to say if
[3:07] Speaker 3: there's a case. It seems like there would be for
[3:09] Speaker 3: Exxon and Chevron and stuff like that, But I don't
[3:12] Speaker 3: think that equates to it being the property of the
[3:16] Speaker 3: US tax payers right with the US people. So I'm
[3:19] Speaker 3: not quite sure. I don't know the legal theory of
[3:25] Speaker 3: how the US could claim the oil. And like you said,
[3:28] Speaker 3: it's fourteen trillion dollars of oil reserves and it's owned,
[3:36] Speaker 3: if you will, by the Venezuelan people, just like natural
[3:39] Speaker 3: resources are owned by people whatever countries are in So
[3:42] Speaker 3: I'm not sure about that. On the interdiction, it looks
[3:46] Speaker 3: like and you know, people were wondering why we why
[3:49] Speaker 3: do we have such a significant naval and marine presence
[3:53] Speaker 3: in the Caribbean right more so than any time in
[3:56] Speaker 3: the last four or five decades, they maybe more than
[4:00] Speaker 3: any time, to be frank, and there's more assets apparently
[4:04] Speaker 3: coming from INDOPECOM to support it. It looks like it's
[4:09] Speaker 3: to do this right. So there's a seventeen hundred mile
[4:12] Speaker 3: coastline of Venezuela, it would still be very difficult by
[4:17] Speaker 3: comparison thirteen hundred square mile or not square miles miles
[4:21] Speaker 3: coastline for California, just comparison, so it's pretty hard to
[4:26] Speaker 3: do a full naval blockade. And if you did, the
[4:29] Speaker 3: question then becomes the legality of it. If you blockade everything,
[4:33] Speaker 3: it's an act of war. It's clearly divined. So that's
[4:35] Speaker 3: why they're talking about just sanctioned vessels, sanctioned oil, and
[4:43] Speaker 3: there's questions about the centuries. I think is the name
[4:45] Speaker 3: of this ship. It's not a sanctioned vessel, but because
[4:50] Speaker 3: it was carrying Venezuela and oil going that doesn't matter
[4:53] Speaker 3: what's going I guess, but it's sanctioned oil. So the
[4:56] Speaker 3: legal theory is you can interdict it. Haven't been doing
[5:00] Speaker 3: this to say Russian oil to support Ukraine, I don't know,
[5:05] Speaker 3: but either way that's what we're doing. So the legalities questioned,
[5:09] Speaker 3: I don't know the answer. Leave it to some of
[5:11] Speaker 3: our folks who might be that type of expert in
[5:16] Speaker 3: our audience, but that's what it looks like it's going
[5:20] Speaker 3: to do. Ninety percent of the income for the regime
[5:22] Speaker 3: comes from purchases of oil. Imagine some comes from illicit narcotics,
[5:27] Speaker 3: and if you cut that off, it could challenge their
[5:33] Speaker 3: ability to stay in place, just because people want to
[5:36] Speaker 3: get paid to support dictator and if they don't, they
[5:41] Speaker 3: might turn against them because there's no The question is
[5:44] Speaker 3: whether the rest of the world's going to allow that,
[5:47] Speaker 3: particularly the countries like China. I'm not sure what they'll
[5:50] Speaker 3: do about it, but unless they want to confrontation with
[5:54] Speaker 3: the US Navy. There is some reporting the Venezuelans are
[5:58] Speaker 3: going to do that, are going to escort these ships
[6:01] Speaker 3: with their navy, and then we'll have to see whether
[6:05] Speaker 3: the US is willing to have a confrontation. We'd win,
[6:07] Speaker 3: of course, but that's there's a much more questions than
[6:11] Speaker 3: just whether you'd be you know, militarily successful in interdicting it,
[6:16] Speaker 3: whether it's worse the actual major escalation. So I think
[6:21] Speaker 3: that's where we are with this. I've talked to people
[6:24] Speaker 3: who have calculated, although they all told me there's really
[6:27] Speaker 3: no way to calculate it. But it would even with this,
[6:30] Speaker 3: it would take over a year to have a major
[6:34] Speaker 3: potential impact on the regime. I believe they knew that.
[6:39] Speaker 3: I believe they were the people to ask, but they
[6:41] Speaker 3: even told me like, but nobody really knows, like they
[6:43] Speaker 3: don't know how they could get around it. Russia or on.
[6:47] Speaker 3: They immediately go into sanctions, you know, economics, you know, posture,
[6:53] Speaker 3: and they figure out how to get around it. So
[6:55] Speaker 3: there's a lot of ifs to that, but it's it
[6:57] Speaker 3: could take a while and it'd be pretty expensive to maintain.
[7:00] Speaker 1: I was just gonna say, like, how much is that
[7:02] Speaker 1: going to fucking run us? A lot? Yeah, I mean
[7:05] Speaker 1: the Pentagon came past a fucking audit which is another
[7:08] Speaker 1: bit of news. I mean, it's like, how many years
[7:11] Speaker 1: in a row it's been. It's like incredible, how consistent.
[7:13] Speaker 1: It's incredible, how consistent they are really outside of the
[7:17] Speaker 1: year the Marine Corps. We know, I was going to
[7:20] Speaker 1: say that I know. I'm I'm contractually obligated to say
[7:23] Speaker 1: that i know. Uh, which is incredible, though, Like, how
[7:28] Speaker 1: about like, let's let's borrow some accounts from the Marine
[7:30] Speaker 1: Corps put him into the rest of the fucking services,
[7:32] Speaker 1: because it's an absolute joke. Over nine hundred and fifty
[7:35] Speaker 1: billion dollar was the latest? Uh ndaa, Right, that's a
[7:40] Speaker 1: lot of keysh that's a lot of money. Like, where's
[7:43] Speaker 1: that ship going. I'm not saying don't fund it, obviously,
[7:46] Speaker 1: I'm saying where's the money going? And are we getting like,
[7:50] Speaker 1: you know, are we getting our money's worth? What are
[7:53] Speaker 1: we doing with that? Okay, sorry, I'm back, I blocked
[7:57] Speaker 1: out for a second.
[8:01] Speaker 3: Uh.
[8:01] Speaker 1: This also pertains this is a bit more of a
[8:03] Speaker 1: general question. Obviously there's been more and more report obvious
[8:08] Speaker 1: like generals retiring. Uh, because it hasn't been I don't
[8:14] Speaker 1: know if it's been reported, but they don't want to
[8:16] Speaker 1: follow unlawful orders, right, they don't. They don't feel comfortable
[8:19] Speaker 1: with the strikes on drug trafficking drug trafficking vessels in
[8:24] Speaker 1: the Caribbean, uh and in the Pacific as well. And
[8:30] Speaker 1: we've seen a few generals retire, and there was I know, Mike,
[8:34] Speaker 1: you wanted to talk about this, like what point do
[8:36] Speaker 1: you do you just retire? Do you stand up and
[8:39] Speaker 1: say no, this is fucking bullshit and I don't want
[8:41] Speaker 1: to do it. It's against the law, it's against the constitution.
[8:43] Speaker 1: It's not my in my purview as a general officer
[8:47] Speaker 1: in the US military.
[8:50] Speaker 3: Any of it's already enlisted. It's only you have a
[8:56] Speaker 3: duty to follow lawful orders. So just like we've discussed,
[8:59] Speaker 3: you know, when they were animal Bradley up there testifying
[9:03] Speaker 3: it first. If it's deemed a lawful order, in my opinion,
[9:07] Speaker 3: you don't really have an option, okat, I mean you
[9:11] Speaker 3: might not like it. I mean, there's I don't know,
[9:14] Speaker 3: most people I know that went to the Warrener Rock
[9:15] Speaker 3: probably weren't against it, you know, like I mean, you know,
[9:19] Speaker 3: policy wise, but you know, you don't join the military
[9:22] Speaker 3: for everybody to have, you know, way in on policy.
[9:27] Speaker 3: But then the question does come down to, well, if
[9:32] Speaker 3: it's an unlawful order, and the question on that, And
[9:36] Speaker 3: I don't know the facts of what happened, so I'm
[9:38] Speaker 3: not talking about any specific but the way the CNN
[9:42] Speaker 3: report came out is if it's true that one of
[9:47] Speaker 3: the senior judge advocates said, if you if it's an
[9:51] Speaker 3: unlawful order, you you should retire rather than resign, because
[9:55] Speaker 3: resigned looks like some political statement. And for me, it
[9:58] Speaker 3: just was confounding because it's like, wait a minute, if
[10:02] Speaker 3: it's an unlawful order, you don't do it. You don't
[10:04] Speaker 3: have an obligation to do anything other than say.
[10:08] Speaker 1: No.
[10:09] Speaker 3: Right, And then we have people to make that determination.
[10:12] Speaker 3: We have a whole cadre of both uniform and civilian
[10:17] Speaker 3: lawyers that make these determinations. It isn't on the admiral
[10:22] Speaker 3: or general just to make their own determination. If the
[10:26] Speaker 3: lawyer says this is an unlawful order, I don't know
[10:31] Speaker 3: why they're being told, then you've better retire because all
[10:34] Speaker 3: that does is leave it to the deputy. Right, we
[10:36] Speaker 3: think about it. How many people I'm sure you guys
[10:38] Speaker 3: have had you know, subordinates, and so all you're doing
[10:41] Speaker 3: is stepping out of the way, going good luck with that.
[10:43] Speaker 3: And eventually under this scenario, if it's true, they're going
[10:47] Speaker 3: to get to people who can't retire, right, exactly.
[10:49] Speaker 1: Right, somebody who's going to go, yeah, all right, we'll
[10:52] Speaker 1: do it.
[10:52] Speaker 3: I'll do it, yeah, right, And then but then it's like,
[10:55] Speaker 3: well no, because if the lawyer said it's unlawful, you
[10:59] Speaker 3: don't have the option to do it. It's not your choice.
[11:03] Speaker 3: So anyway, either it's and I know the journalist who
[11:09] Speaker 3: put it out and she's a great reporter. If that's
[11:11] Speaker 3: the case, and there should be a lot more inquiry
[11:13] Speaker 3: about from the Senate Armed Services Committee and House Armed
[11:18] Speaker 3: Services Committee getting to the question of just what our
[11:22] Speaker 3: senior flag officers being told about this, because they don't
[11:26] Speaker 3: really have an option. You just don't follow on law
[11:28] Speaker 3: forms that's clear and that you see Mjay and the
[11:32] Speaker 3: law of armed conflict. Not for nothing. That's a stupid
[11:36] Speaker 3: tactical option. Anyway, What are they right.
[11:39] Speaker 2: There on the spot going to say, I retire, you know,
[11:42] Speaker 2: when you're told push the button.
[11:43] Speaker 1: That's just dumb.
[11:44] Speaker 2: So they have the choice to either do it or
[11:47] Speaker 2: not do it on the spot, and then later on
[11:49] Speaker 2: say I didn't agree, I'm retiring, you know, or resigning,
[11:54] Speaker 2: But technically you can't just retire on the spot.
[11:57] Speaker 3: So that was a dumb moups. And you're right later
[12:00] Speaker 3: if you just didn't agree with the policy for whatever reason.
[12:04] Speaker 3: I mean, it's the voluntary military, you can step out.
[12:07] Speaker 3: Maybe that I mean, although I don't want to understand
[12:11] Speaker 3: why they can tell you that you can't resign.
[12:13] Speaker 1: Yeah, you know what I mean stoptics. Really, I think
[12:16] Speaker 1: it's just if.
[12:17] Speaker 3: You don't have any obligations to your you know, on
[12:20] Speaker 3: your contract anyway. Not to get into details, but that
[12:23] Speaker 3: seems to be something the Oversight Committee should follow up
[12:26] Speaker 3: on because if true, there's a they're missing the part
[12:28] Speaker 3: of on law.
[12:31] Speaker 1: And yeah, make let me ask you man, because you
[12:35] Speaker 1: were in leadership positions everywhere you were, right, you were
[12:38] Speaker 1: s I S and that CIA, you were a deputy
[12:40] Speaker 1: assistants Secretary of Defense. You know, these are leadership roles
[12:44] Speaker 1: where you have people under you. And I know the
[12:46] Speaker 1: CIA is a little bit more flexible when it comes
[12:48] Speaker 1: to like unlawful stuff because that's their mandate is to
[12:51] Speaker 1: break laws across you know, outside of the US, or
[12:54] Speaker 1: part of their mandate but let's say a CIA lawyer
[12:58] Speaker 1: comes in and is like, yeah, this is kind of
[13:01] Speaker 1: pushing to the part where this is very gray or
[13:05] Speaker 1: even unlawful in terms of what we can and can't do.
[13:09] Speaker 1: And you're running a program, right, some we don't need
[13:12] Speaker 1: to mention any but I'm just saying, this is a hypothetical.
[13:17] Speaker 1: What do you do when it's like, this is sketching.
[13:19] Speaker 1: Even the lawyers are saying, this is kind of this
[13:22] Speaker 1: is kind of pushing it.
[13:24] Speaker 3: Like, well, I mean, and I'll just say this in general,
[13:29] Speaker 3: I think it does apply to the agency, or the FBI,
[13:32] Speaker 3: or the military, right we all have. Even the agency
[13:35] Speaker 3: has legal parameters, probably more than people know. But it
[13:39] Speaker 3: really does come down to what the lawyers said. I mean,
[13:41] Speaker 3: that's why we have them. There's plenty of service, especially
[13:44] Speaker 3: INTEL services that do not you know, like I've been
[13:48] Speaker 3: told by several inteil services, our lawyers write our wills.
[13:53] Speaker 3: That's it, right, that's not that's not the case in
[13:57] Speaker 3: the US. So they have they have a very substantial
[14:01] Speaker 3: operational impact. And if they say something's unlawful, it's unlawful.
[14:06] Speaker 3: If they say it's you know, it's close to the line,
[14:08] Speaker 3: then just like anything, it's you know, that's then I
[14:11] Speaker 3: guess it comes down to the operator or the person
[14:15] Speaker 3: that's in the command position to determine. But close to
[14:20] Speaker 3: the line is lawful? Yeah, I mean as all as
[14:23] Speaker 3: it's close to the line on the right side of
[14:25] Speaker 3: the line. But that's I mean, that's that's a challenge
[14:29] Speaker 3: that every commander of anything, especially if there's a lethal
[14:33] Speaker 3: opponent to what you do. It's got a face right
[14:36] Speaker 3: with it's the Marine Corps, the agency, or you know
[14:42] Speaker 3: what's going on right now with the interdicting votes in
[14:44] Speaker 3: the Caribbean. It really does have to come down to
[14:47] Speaker 3: a very objective cadre of legal professionals who have studied
[14:53] Speaker 3: and know the law, and they have to be willing
[14:57] Speaker 3: to say the right answer and stand by it. That's clear.
[15:03] Speaker 3: I mean, that's been clear since that's why we have
[15:05] Speaker 3: all the conventions governing arm conflict in the event war sucks.
[15:10] Speaker 3: But you know, they're even even with that it should
[15:14] Speaker 3: be fought by combatants, only combatants, and there are rules
[15:19] Speaker 3: that all those combatants want adhere to when it comes
[15:22] Speaker 3: to them. So you know, why not make war, you know,
[15:29] Speaker 3: as acceptable as possible. If not, it's just latent total
[15:35] Speaker 3: war targeting civilians, fire bombing cities. Yeah, it's we've collectively
[15:44] Speaker 3: decided we don't want to see that ever again after
[15:47] Speaker 3: World War Two, So maybe we've maybe maybe we've gotten
[15:52] Speaker 3: too far away from actually like the actual knowledge of
[15:56] Speaker 3: that how bad that can get, although we can see
[15:58] Speaker 3: it in a lot of place now.
[16:00] Speaker 1: Gods.
[16:02] Speaker 3: Yeah, and Ukraine, I mean, Russians literally just target civilians
[16:07] Speaker 3: every day.
[16:07] Speaker 1: Yeah.
[16:08] Speaker 3: Man, They're they're shooting very precise weapons at nurseries, you know,
[16:13] Speaker 3: and like maternal hospitals, at turnity hospitals. I mean, it's
[16:16] Speaker 3: like it's not an accident that we've decided we don't
[16:20] Speaker 3: want to fight war that way.
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[18:06] Speaker 1: I mean we'll see what happens. Obviously, this is still
[18:11] Speaker 1: an active situation in Venezuela, in and around Venezuela. All right,
[18:15] Speaker 1: move on to Israel. You know who's visiting the White
[18:19] Speaker 1: House to talk phase two of the ceasefire, which they
[18:23] Speaker 1: violated many, many, many many times. I just want to
[18:25] Speaker 1: editorialize that real quick. Also, like aid's not exactly flowing
[18:30] Speaker 1: in there, like it's a deluge of aid. Let's be honest,
[18:33] Speaker 1: there's still over one hundred thousand people who are in
[18:37] Speaker 1: a dire strait where who could really use aid there. Also,
[18:43] Speaker 1: I mean, this is the same almost it's in the
[18:45] Speaker 1: same ballpark. Israel's cabinet just approved more settlements in the
[18:49] Speaker 1: West Bank, illegal settlements, illegal settlements. Sorry, where are we
[18:55] Speaker 1: at with Phase two? What's it looking like? Mick? What
[18:58] Speaker 1: are you hearing?
[19:01] Speaker 3: So I think you're right. There's been a and the
[19:04] Speaker 3: humanitarian situation has gotten worse, believe or not, because of
[19:08] Speaker 3: the deluge of rain and the winter. So let's destroyed
[19:12] Speaker 3: a lot of their temporary tent type housing and they're
[19:16] Speaker 3: a bad I mean, they've been in a bad situation
[19:19] Speaker 3: and now it's getting worse. And it to me, I mean,
[19:21] Speaker 3: I track because of what we do track. The A
[19:26] Speaker 3: going in doesn't seem to be up to the number
[19:29] Speaker 3: they said it should be eight six hundred trucks in it.
[19:32] Speaker 3: I think the US should hold them accountable for that,
[19:34] Speaker 3: or at least push them to do what they agree to.
[19:37] Speaker 3: That's the whole point I having a twenty point plan.
[19:40] Speaker 3: But now I think the meeting with Prime Minister and
[19:44] Speaker 3: Yahoo and President Trump's on twenty ninth, I think so
[19:49] Speaker 3: I believe, And you know this is I mean, there's
[19:51] Speaker 3: a lot of you know, criticism or comments I should
[19:56] Speaker 3: say that are critical about the peace plan, but I'd say, well,
[20:01] Speaker 3: they deserve credit for getting at where it is. The
[20:05] Speaker 3: administration that is so and it's not it's not easy.
[20:09] Speaker 3: Nobody found it be easy. Uh, And maybe sometimes the
[20:12] Speaker 3: optimism is too much, but that was also the case,
[20:15] Speaker 3: lots of administration, but anyway, so the next phase phase two,
[20:21] Speaker 3: the primary component is the International Stabilization Force, which has
[20:26] Speaker 3: been authorized by you and I think it's twenty eight
[20:28] Speaker 3: oh three to do and they will have a hefty
[20:35] Speaker 3: task ahead of them. So their main effort is provide
[20:39] Speaker 3: security and demilitarization at Gaza, which obviously means destroying tunnels
[20:44] Speaker 3: and taking guns away from from us. It's to ensure
[20:48] Speaker 3: the steady flow of aid. So it's not just it's
[20:51] Speaker 3: not just getting into the strip, right, it's also going
[20:53] Speaker 3: to get to the people, but so secure those those
[20:57] Speaker 3: are lines of transport, so they are all stolen by AMAS.
[21:04] Speaker 3: And then the third main part of the ISP is
[21:08] Speaker 3: to train Palestinians to take over their position. So that
[21:12] Speaker 3: could take a long time. And now they've got to
[21:14] Speaker 3: get you know, countries to contribute. I think there was
[21:18] Speaker 3: over forty countries participated in the summit at Doua, but
[21:24] Speaker 3: I've only really heard of like Indonesia, azer Byijean. A
[21:30] Speaker 3: few golf countries have said they are willing to contribute forces.
[21:34] Speaker 3: In Italy, I think it's one of the European countries
[21:37] Speaker 3: that might But this is you know, it's it's tough stuff.
[21:41] Speaker 3: It's you're got to contribute a force. It goes into
[21:44] Speaker 3: Gaza and then ends up looking like an occupier because
[21:49] Speaker 3: that's it looked like an occupier almost immediately. Right, Let's
[21:52] Speaker 3: let's just face it. And then as soon as there's
[21:54] Speaker 3: any kind of confrontation between the force itself and either
[21:59] Speaker 3: come on or any of these are armed faction, then
[22:01] Speaker 3: it's really going to look like it just replaced the
[22:03] Speaker 3: id f right and defend themselves. Of course they're going
[22:06] Speaker 3: to defend themselves. They're soldiers. I mean, they're not there
[22:08] Speaker 3: to get you know. So it's I mean, there's I know,
[22:12] Speaker 3: the guy that was They've got some good people that
[22:16] Speaker 3: are that are in charge of this from the from
[22:19] Speaker 3: the US military side, and I think that's that's a
[22:24] Speaker 3: good thing. But let's not be a naive. This is
[22:27] Speaker 3: going to be very difficult. It's a big decision by
[22:31] Speaker 3: and I think big decision by the countries that would contribute.
[22:33] Speaker 3: And I think one of the things that the administration,
[22:37] Speaker 3: the US administration is doing is using meetings between the
[22:40] Speaker 3: President and Prime Minister as a forcing function. Like we're
[22:43] Speaker 3: going into the second phase now, right, because Israel has
[22:46] Speaker 3: been reluctant throughout right. They're elected. You know, we have
[22:51] Speaker 3: a potential for the war to start back up in Lebanon.
[22:54] Speaker 3: We have a potential for direct, you know, full on
[22:57] Speaker 3: conflict back in Gaza. There's talk in Syria, there's talking rocks.
[23:02] Speaker 3: It certainly hasn't stabilized the way we like it, but
[23:07] Speaker 3: I would give credit to the effort, at least for
[23:10] Speaker 3: the US.
[23:11] Speaker 1: I have a question, is this international force like mobilized ready?
[23:15] Speaker 1: Who's paying for it? Are they? I mean, because I'm
[23:19] Speaker 1: assuming it's gonna take you know, months, if not longer,
[23:23] Speaker 1: several months from force to mobilize. That's big enough to
[23:27] Speaker 1: make sense. Also to train, who leads it, who commands it.
[23:32] Speaker 3: It's a good question, and I don't know the answers,
[23:34] Speaker 3: which means is likely either way behind the scenes or
[23:38] Speaker 3: they haven't progressed that much. I mean, they got the
[23:40] Speaker 3: UN authorization, they had to sell it. Maybe they can
[23:43] Speaker 3: train in Egypt, you know, which is not such a
[23:46] Speaker 3: there's facilities there. Who's gonna pay, that's a great I
[23:50] Speaker 3: haven't even heard anybody talk about it's gonna pay. I've
[23:52] Speaker 3: heard people talk about who's gonna pay for the reconstruction,
[23:55] Speaker 3: which of course is all the countries you'd guess are
[23:57] Speaker 3: they also gonna pay? Like is a country like Indonesia
[24:02] Speaker 3: and Azerbaijan going to contribute the forces but another country
[24:04] Speaker 3: pay because it's going to be costly to quip them.
[24:08] Speaker 3: They've got to be integrated, they've got to be trained, right,
[24:12] Speaker 3: being just being a soldier doesn't make you a peacekeeper,
[24:15] Speaker 3: and just being a peace keeper doesn't make you capable
[24:17] Speaker 3: of being a peacekeeper in Gossam, especially for coming in
[24:20] Speaker 3: and from Indonesia. Right, So yeah, there's there's some partk
[24:26] Speaker 3: leon task. I think ahead of us on this, but
[24:29] Speaker 3: at the end of it, if it gets through all
[24:31] Speaker 3: the phases in line with the US proposal, it would
[24:35] Speaker 3: be better off. I think for Israel and the people
[24:38] Speaker 3: of Gonzo.
[24:39] Speaker 1: How many people just today ballpark? Is there like any
[24:42] Speaker 1: are there any military guys out there or a military
[24:45] Speaker 1: acts WHI should think tanks that are like even saying
[24:47] Speaker 1: how many people, how many soldiers they would need to
[24:50] Speaker 1: police this? How much? What's that number? Ballpark?
[24:53] Speaker 3: So it goes it goes up as Israel would draw US, okay,
[24:58] Speaker 3: because there's more terrain. I mean, look at how many
[25:04] Speaker 3: troops Israel has in there right now, right, let's just look,
[25:09] Speaker 3: it would be in the mastas control some of the areas.
[25:14] Speaker 1: Sorry, guys, for the dead air. I'll cut this out.
[25:21] Speaker 3: Just it surges because of their.
[25:24] Speaker 1: Yeah, it goes up and down, right. You got to
[25:26] Speaker 1: assume a couple of divisions, right, like fifty thousand, forty thousand,
[25:36] Speaker 1: And that's just my dumbins does dumb back, Yeah, No,
[25:39] Speaker 1: it's it's I'm reading here.
[25:42] Speaker 2: It says no country's fully committed troops yet and the
[25:46] Speaker 2: US official acknowledge may take most of twenty twenty six
[25:49] Speaker 2: to reach a goal of ten thousand troops.
[25:52] Speaker 1: Yeah, that's crazy. What's tenth douts?
[25:56] Speaker 3: I misspelled troops?
[25:57] Speaker 1: That's all right, I've misspelled everything on there too, so
[26:01] Speaker 1: fast you get mad at ai for not no. Yeah,
[26:04] Speaker 1: so you got to assume it's got to be at
[26:06] Speaker 1: least forty thousand, right, yeah, ballpark, because if you have
[26:10] Speaker 1: like three four thousand militant still so there, you probably
[26:12] Speaker 1: want a ten x ratio. I would assume, I would assume.
[26:17] Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know, I don't know anything.
[26:19] Speaker 3: Yeah, so it really does not want to tell me
[26:22] Speaker 3: how many it to even guess it's over one hundred thousands.
[26:27] Speaker 1: I saw that the initial after the thing was one
[26:30] Speaker 1: hundred thousand, So like that's the high.
[26:31] Speaker 3: End fluctuates pretty dramatically because they're going to go after
[26:34] Speaker 3: Goss the city. They have to they have to surge,
[26:37] Speaker 3: and then once they yeah, they actually occupy and basically
[26:42] Speaker 3: taken hold. You don't need as many troops.
[26:44] Speaker 1: Yeah, so just don't know what.
[26:46] Speaker 3: The but it's gonna take at least as much as
[26:48] Speaker 3: they would use, yeah, to stabilize the whole.
[26:53] Speaker 1: Yeah, that long. How much does it cost to even
[26:57] Speaker 1: keep fifty thousand troops their supply ready to go? And
[27:02] Speaker 1: it's not cheap. You're talking tens of billions of dollars
[27:04] Speaker 1: a year or more. Who who pays for that? Like seriously,
[27:11] Speaker 1: I mean it should be Israel, But who pays for that?
[27:14] Speaker 3: I bet you ain't gonna be Israel? No shit, I
[27:16] Speaker 3: would guess the I would guess a conglomeration of donors
[27:21] Speaker 3: that want to see this happen.
[27:24] Speaker 1: I don't want to be cynical, Max, but I don't
[27:26] Speaker 1: see this happening. I want to believe. I want to
[27:29] Speaker 1: want to.
[27:30] Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a lot of challenges to it, but I
[27:33] Speaker 3: don't know how you would get from the IDEF to
[27:35] Speaker 3: a trusted, vetted Palestinian. Maybe that that's the other alternative
[27:42] Speaker 3: is they just keep training Palestinians from there, But that's
[27:48] Speaker 3: obviously either not acceptable to Israel, which is why we're
[27:50] Speaker 3: even talking about the ISF, and with it also becomes
[27:54] Speaker 3: a government council that starts with the Peace counciled and
[27:57] Speaker 3: transitions to you know, tectocratic is the term that I'd
[28:01] Speaker 3: like to use. Government made up of Palestinian folks that
[28:05] Speaker 3: are good at every area of the society, education, transportation,
[28:11] Speaker 3: all that stuff. So again, it's it's easy to criticize.
[28:17] Speaker 3: I do a lot of foreign you know, in addition
[28:19] Speaker 3: to ABC, I do a lot of foreign stuff. And
[28:22] Speaker 3: you know, it's everybody likes to get out and say
[28:24] Speaker 3: how screwed up the peace plan is. But I don't
[28:27] Speaker 3: know when they ask them, like, well, what's an alternative,
[28:30] Speaker 3: it's like crickets.
[28:35] Speaker 1: What about Yeah, what about Israel? What about Israel pulling
[28:38] Speaker 1: out and picking off hot mosque guys as they reconstitute
[28:43] Speaker 1: and stuff like that, and letting the Palestinian people self determine.
[28:49] Speaker 3: But I think that's part of the plan. Isn't that
[28:51] Speaker 3: a twenty point plan ends with a full withdrawal the
[28:55] Speaker 3: IDEF and Palestinian governance system.
[28:59] Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, but what part of the I mean, Yeah,
[29:04] Speaker 1: I don't want to be I'm gonna. I don't want
[29:05] Speaker 1: to keep shitting on it. I want to keep shitting Yeah,
[29:08] Speaker 1: I just don't. I think the culprit of this obviously
[29:11] Speaker 1: is Hamas and they need to get their peep wax,
[29:13] Speaker 1: which means fucking smoked. But the way Israel has gone
[29:18] Speaker 1: about it is pretty fucking crazy. I think we I can.
[29:22] Speaker 1: I mean, some people can agree with me, some people
[29:24] Speaker 1: don't have to. Yeah, I think pulling out getting aid there, Uh,
[29:30] Speaker 1: some dialogue would be smart, I think, And you know,
[29:36] Speaker 1: if you don't want to pay for it, fine, but
[29:37] Speaker 1: like put together a coalition of the Arab countries and
[29:40] Speaker 1: stuff like that that are willing to I think, actual
[29:44] Speaker 1: meaningful dialogue, not not showing up to the signing of it,
[29:50] Speaker 1: which would happened by both sides, you know, and kind
[29:54] Speaker 1: of frankly placating the American administration because that's what it
[30:00] Speaker 1: feel like, because this deal was on the table a
[30:02] Speaker 1: year and a half ago and Nen Yahoo didn't do it.
[30:05] Speaker 1: Because he thought he could make a better deal with
[30:07] Speaker 1: the way if Trump came in. And that's just the
[30:09] Speaker 1: politics of it, that's just the reality of it. I
[30:12] Speaker 1: think willing partners, good faith actors, and the negotiations would
[30:17] Speaker 1: take this a lot longer. And I don't think either
[30:19] Speaker 1: side Hamas or Nan Yahoo's government are good faith actors whatsoever.
[30:28] Speaker 2: I think something else needs to be Oh, I'm sorry,
[30:31] Speaker 2: something else that I was just thinking about that should
[30:33] Speaker 2: be clarified too. As far as the ISF is concerned,
[30:36] Speaker 2: is is their role peace keeping versus peace enforcement? Because
[30:40] Speaker 2: there is a difference. Peace keeping is there is a
[30:42] Speaker 2: peace plan in place and it's being it's being maintained,
[30:47] Speaker 2: whereas peace enforcement, and I should go back and clarify.
[30:50] Speaker 2: I looked into this because I kept seeing both peace
[30:53] Speaker 2: keeping it's with the consent of both parties, both belligerent parties.
[30:58] Speaker 2: Peace enforcement you don't need uh consent, and that is
[31:03] Speaker 2: enforcing and actually implementing peace where there is none. So
[31:08] Speaker 2: I think that's something that needs to be clarified and
[31:11] Speaker 2: agreed to by the is F participants. That's a big
[31:15] Speaker 2: put them in direct conflict if it's peace enforcement, could
[31:18] Speaker 2: put them in direct conflict with i DF or you
[31:21] Speaker 2: know AMAS or both.
[31:24] Speaker 3: Yes, both really bad.
[31:27] Speaker 1: And isn't the idea known for hitting, you know, shooting
[31:32] Speaker 1: sometimes at UN peacekeepers Hm m hmm on a serious coordination.
[31:38] Speaker 3: That's why the US set up that civilian military Coordination
[31:43] Speaker 3: Center it sent Israel. They gotta they just gotta be coordinated,
[31:48] Speaker 3: even even if they're peace keepers. To Jay's point, meaning
[31:52] Speaker 3: that they're both sides agreed for them to be there.
[31:54] Speaker 3: I mean, fogel war is a real thing, right, you
[31:57] Speaker 3: gotta have we have to have coordination, and there's always
[32:00] Speaker 3: going to be some jackass with AKA. It's gonna even
[32:04] Speaker 3: if both sides fully agree, who's going to just shoot
[32:09] Speaker 3: at somebody? I mean, we know the deal, right, It'll
[32:12] Speaker 3: be some splinter element didn't agree with Hamas's leadership or
[32:17] Speaker 3: what have you. It's going to kick it off. It's yeah,
[32:20] Speaker 3: it's again. I'm not saying it's perfect, and the criticism
[32:24] Speaker 3: of it, I think is is valid to a point.
[32:27] Speaker 3: It's just that it's like people that are criticized and
[32:29] Speaker 3: also a right coming up with a better plan. And
[32:31] Speaker 3: at the end of this it does end up with
[32:36] Speaker 3: a place at least in the twenty point plan that
[32:39] Speaker 3: people say they want to see, which is which is
[32:42] Speaker 3: an autonomous palace. It doesn't. I don't think it says
[32:45] Speaker 3: and I have to go read it again, but like
[32:47] Speaker 3: a Palacinian state. But essentially it's like there and right
[32:52] Speaker 3: now we're going to the other direction. I mean, you
[32:53] Speaker 3: just talked about nineteen new settlements in the West Bank.
[32:57] Speaker 1: There's sixty plus over a few years too they approve.
[33:01] Speaker 3: Yeah, so we're going further and further away from that
[33:04] Speaker 3: even being a viable option if we don't, if this
[33:08] Speaker 3: doesn't not get implemented.
[33:11] Speaker 1: Yeah, so we'll see what goes down. I want to
[33:15] Speaker 1: talk a bit about what happened in Syria where we
[33:18] Speaker 1: lost three servicemen to an ISIS attack and then we've
[33:23] Speaker 1: subsequently hit about seventy targets in Syria striking back. I
[33:31] Speaker 1: have a question, why are they like we have a
[33:33] Speaker 1: small footprint in Syria, right, you know, it's special operations,
[33:36] Speaker 1: it's agency and stuff like that. Why do we need
[33:40] Speaker 1: guardsmen there? National guardsmen?
[33:44] Speaker 3: I'm glad you asked. Indeed, I think people would be
[33:47] Speaker 3: surprised where guardsmen actually are. They're deployed all the time around.
[33:53] Speaker 3: I've visited there, I've been in Syria many times, as
[33:56] Speaker 3: you would guess. But my last job, I visited the
[33:59] Speaker 3: place where these soldiers were. I think they were on top.
[34:04] Speaker 3: There was National Guards. Folks said, there's they do a lot. Yes,
[34:09] Speaker 3: you're right. We got the jaysack, we got the agency
[34:13] Speaker 3: folks doing their stuff. But a lot of these bases
[34:16] Speaker 3: or staff by National Guard infantry types soldiers and of
[34:23] Speaker 3: course active duty infantry. And it's it's common, and it
[34:28] Speaker 3: just started now. I mean it's been going on for
[34:30] Speaker 3: years and years and years. They sign up for the
[34:32] Speaker 3: deployment and they get deployed, and I think there's been
[34:35] Speaker 3: a guard component in Syria for decades.
[34:39] Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. My question is this. I understand if we're
[34:43] Speaker 1: feeling like, you know, we're about to go into surging
[34:46] Speaker 1: in Iraq or surging in Afghanistan where we need reserves
[34:50] Speaker 1: and guardsmen, totally I understand that. But when you have
[34:53] Speaker 1: a small you know, a couple of thousand, you know, total,
[34:58] Speaker 1: why can't that be filled by act of duty?
[35:02] Speaker 3: Fair question. I don't know exactly why we use so
[35:09] Speaker 3: many of the guard forces and a continuous active operation.
[35:17] Speaker 3: I would say the Guard actually is housing most of
[35:21] Speaker 3: the Army's combat power for the reserves. You see what
[35:26] Speaker 3: I mean. Yeah, so traditionally think okay, national Guard response
[35:31] Speaker 3: to hurricanes and such. They now have a very direct
[35:34] Speaker 3: mission that they have most of the combat component of
[35:38] Speaker 3: the reserve forces, which also includes the Army Reserve. I mean,
[35:42] Speaker 3: like special Forces has a nineteenth group in the twentieth group.
[35:48] Speaker 3: So it is it is a very active reserve component,
[35:51] Speaker 3: if you will. But I don't know, I don't know
[35:55] Speaker 3: why they're they're always.
[35:56] Speaker 1: Is that just a byproduct of Iraq and Afghanistan over
[36:00] Speaker 1: the years, Okay, yeah, yeah, because I was just wondering,
[36:05] Speaker 1: I was like, it's such a small, such a small
[36:07] Speaker 1: like footprint, you know. I get maybe in Ramstein we
[36:11] Speaker 1: have guardsmen and stuff or Okinawa or wherever, you know,
[36:14] Speaker 1: we have big, big footprints, but like for like a
[36:17] Speaker 1: real like it's is clearly a special operations heavy area
[36:23] Speaker 1: of operations. Like I don't know why we have guardsmen there.
[36:26] Speaker 1: I'm not saying they can't get shit done, obviously they can,
[36:29] Speaker 1: you know what I mean. Like our guy Dave Park
[36:31] Speaker 1: has told us about the Arkansas National Garden, like the
[36:34] Speaker 1: havoc they've you know, wreaked, you know, in helping our
[36:38] Speaker 1: guys out in Iraq and stuff. So it's just that's
[36:43] Speaker 1: my I was just really wondering that, Like I didn't
[36:45] Speaker 1: understand that when I read like who who got killed
[36:47] Speaker 1: and stuff? They were guardsmen, I'm just like, interesting, yeahwa, yeah,
[36:53] Speaker 1: what do you think.
[36:54] Speaker 3: We have elemited presence there? We're there predominantly for the
[36:58] Speaker 3: enduring defeat of ISUS mission. It also of course pushes
[37:02] Speaker 3: back against Rome just because of our president, and we
[37:05] Speaker 3: worked really closely, we have for a long time with
[37:08] Speaker 3: the sdf you know, which is uh, it's both kurt
[37:11] Speaker 3: and Era era, but it's it's predominantly Kurdish in the
[37:14] Speaker 3: leadership to successfully beat the caliphate, you know, the so
[37:20] Speaker 3: called caliphate of Isis in a rock and Syria predominantly
[37:24] Speaker 3: Syria of course for the SDFU. So it's it's a
[37:27] Speaker 3: long and during relationship. Now we're working with the regime,
[37:31] Speaker 3: not the regime, the interim government in Damascus, so that's
[37:35] Speaker 3: a change. But they're inherently dangerous, right Uh. You know,
[37:41] Speaker 3: people ask, well, he's got some questions. Doesn't this mean
[37:43] Speaker 3: isis is back? Look, I mean one guy who is
[37:47] Speaker 3: a insider threat that smart, the sky was wants to
[37:52] Speaker 3: open up on a patrol. It's horrible and God blessed
[37:55] Speaker 3: the these force. Uh, these two soldiers in interpreter who
[38:00] Speaker 3: who gave the ultimate sacrifice for their country. It's very
[38:04] Speaker 3: difficult to combat against, right one, you trust that the
[38:07] Speaker 3: person's not going to shoot it. They all have guns.
[38:11] Speaker 3: It's this quick if you're an inside of threat.
[38:13] Speaker 1: Right.
[38:14] Speaker 3: So I don't think this means that like isis is.
[38:19] Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I don't know.
[38:21] Speaker 3: Just because of this horrible event, and like you said,
[38:25] Speaker 3: the US came back art and I want to send
[38:27] Speaker 3: a message said, you know, bad idea, and they wanted
[38:32] Speaker 3: to take the opportunity to deplete every possible connected you know,
[38:36] Speaker 3: support position in person for ISIS. I think they probably
[38:40] Speaker 3: did in this Uh. I think they called it the
[38:43] Speaker 3: hawk Hawkeye name you.
[38:45] Speaker 1: Know, yeah, Ration Hawke, I yeah, Operation Hawkeye something. There's
[38:52] Speaker 1: an extra bit to it. Yeah. I mean, it's just
[38:57] Speaker 1: it's terrible to see. And like you said, I don't
[38:59] Speaker 1: think Ice is going to be rolling over like parts
[39:01] Speaker 1: of Syria and Iraq like they did back in ten
[39:04] Speaker 1: years ago or so or longer at all. I think,
[39:08] Speaker 1: you know, thankfully we have a good, good grip on that.
[39:14] Speaker 1: And you know, I'm all in for our guys being
[39:17] Speaker 1: around there and doing what we need to do. I'm
[39:21] Speaker 1: all into with al Shara helping us out, I think,
[39:25] Speaker 1: you know. And like there was a New York Times
[39:28] Speaker 1: report that he's been helping us out since twenty sixteen.
[39:31] Speaker 1: Uh so it's out there. So thanks Al Shara. We'll
[39:37] Speaker 1: see if you actually hold elections. Fingers crossed. Moving on
[39:42] Speaker 1: to Ukraine and Russia. We saw over the last week
[39:48] Speaker 1: Elo class sub got smoked in Port incredible, and a
[39:55] Speaker 1: few I think a handful of Russian fighters, you know,
[39:58] Speaker 1: as you I think it was at twenty nine. Like Myria,
[40:02] Speaker 1: they have a ton of fighters gotten uh you know,
[40:05] Speaker 1: sabotage and blown up. Also, you've been seeing the refineries
[40:08] Speaker 1: continuously being under attack, and then you have a guy
[40:14] Speaker 1: like Putin who comes out. It was interesting. He had
[40:17] Speaker 1: some speech or something going. He hits some like it
[40:19] Speaker 1: was like look like a town hall where he's like,
[40:23] Speaker 1: you know, we wouldn't have done this if we didn't
[40:25] Speaker 1: we weren't attacked first. And I saw that, and I'm paraphrasing,
[40:30] Speaker 1: but that was his basic measle scent of what he
[40:31] Speaker 1: was trying to say, and I'm like, how can a
[40:35] Speaker 1: man is he? Is he fucking delusional? Is he dotty
[40:39] Speaker 1: because he's in his seventies, or is he like seriously
[40:42] Speaker 1: believe his bullshit that he's trying to spin and put
[40:45] Speaker 1: out there.
[40:48] Speaker 3: I don't think he seriously believes that he was. Yeah,
[40:52] Speaker 3: I think he just thinks that a lot of people
[40:55] Speaker 3: in Russia simply listen to what he says and don't
[40:58] Speaker 3: challenge it. So if he says it had happen, and yeah,
[41:03] Speaker 3: the question is whether Europe is really going to step up.
[41:07] Speaker 3: And there are some leaders like Mertz, Chancellor of Germany,
[41:13] Speaker 3: we're saying the right stuff, Like they're basically saying, we
[41:17] Speaker 3: need to find a way legally to release these funds
[41:20] Speaker 3: of Russia to Ukraine now, not bring our hands about
[41:24] Speaker 3: it for the next and we need to prepare for
[41:26] Speaker 3: war like it's going to happen, which is the only
[41:30] Speaker 3: thing that count understands. Like if he looks across and
[41:32] Speaker 3: he sees like the German war machine is like flawed again,
[41:37] Speaker 3: Like who the hell is going to want to attack?
[41:40] Speaker 1: You know what I mean?
[41:40] Speaker 3: It's not going to be a choice of any nation,
[41:42] Speaker 3: and it's not going to just be that. Right, it's Poland,
[41:45] Speaker 3: it's Ukraine itself. Ukraine is the largest army in Europe.
[41:49] Speaker 3: And if they start getting like fully backed, not just financially,
[41:54] Speaker 3: but an opportunity to actually intervene, when does Europe the
[41:59] Speaker 3: rest of Europe say, flies on your Ukraine, we'll shoot
[42:01] Speaker 3: everything down. I mean, it's it's Russia being the aggression.
[42:05] Speaker 3: It is Ukraine, right, so they don't need permission to
[42:09] Speaker 3: defend Ukraine. Russia could simply stop attacking its neighbor now.
[42:14] Speaker 3: I mean, that's risk confrontation between Europe and Russia, and
[42:18] Speaker 3: I don't think anybody should want to see it. But
[42:21] Speaker 3: you know, you just keep letting them do what they
[42:23] Speaker 3: want to do. You know, it's like one of those
[42:25] Speaker 3: things your house, your neighbor's house is burning down, You're
[42:27] Speaker 3: gonna really wait till it's yours.
[42:30] Speaker 1: So I know they've been working on trying to figure
[42:33] Speaker 1: out a way to like leverage the three hundred plus
[42:35] Speaker 1: billion that are sitting in Belgian accounts, or most of
[42:37] Speaker 1: them sitting in Belgian accounts. Have they worked out that
[42:40] Speaker 1: loan or however it was gonna work. It was like
[42:42] Speaker 1: a ninety billion dollar loan or something to be sent
[42:44] Speaker 1: to Ukraine. Can you explain a little bit about that.
[42:47] Speaker 3: I think the idea is they loan the money based
[42:51] Speaker 3: on the holdings, right, so it's secured in the legal
[42:56] Speaker 3: sense by the frozen accounts, and then they expect when
[43:00] Speaker 3: there is an adjudication of restitution, the Russia will be
[43:06] Speaker 3: responsible for everything they caused Ukraine to have to spend
[43:09] Speaker 3: to defend themselves, which is way more than what's in
[43:13] Speaker 3: the holdings, right. I mean, hell, I mean maybe other countries,
[43:18] Speaker 3: even the United States, could see Russia for all the
[43:21] Speaker 3: contributions we had to do because they attacked you can
[43:24] Speaker 3: see that. You can see the increase and take the
[43:26] Speaker 3: difference right or all the European countries. So it's going
[43:28] Speaker 3: to be way bought beyond what's frozen. So they should
[43:32] Speaker 3: be able to repay the law, you see what I mean, right,
[43:38] Speaker 3: based on Russia's restitution for unlawfully attacking that and destroying
[43:45] Speaker 3: how many buildings all that stuff. So it's that's the
[43:50] Speaker 3: theory of why they could do it. I don't know
[43:52] Speaker 3: why they're waiting, but that would be the first step
[43:55] Speaker 3: in many that would change Putin's perspective on this being
[43:59] Speaker 3: an idea.
[44:02] Speaker 1: Also the guy krilled Dimitriev his dad in Miami. Now,
[44:08] Speaker 1: I don't know talking to the boys, like, you know,
[44:13] Speaker 1: I don't know if Wi cost likely down there. I'm assuming,
[44:15] Speaker 1: I don't know if Kushner is Yeah, God knows what
[44:20] Speaker 1: comes out of that. Zelenski did come out and say, yeah,
[44:25] Speaker 1: let's we can do elections, like he's calling them out, like, yeah,
[44:29] Speaker 1: we can amend our constitution and do elections right now.
[44:34] Speaker 1: So he yeah, he's you know what I mean.
[44:37] Speaker 3: Yeah, he would take away that talking point, right, how
[44:40] Speaker 3: about pot the elections right yeah.
[44:42] Speaker 1: Right, where he doesn't win eighty seven percent of the vote.
[44:46] Speaker 3: Yeah, it's actually freed fair and gets observed by national.
[44:50] Speaker 1: And his main political opponent isn't in a Siberian prison.
[44:54] Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, So, I mean, we'll see what happens when
[44:58] Speaker 1: this comes out of There was some more talk about
[45:00] Speaker 1: like there being a trilateral talk between Ukraine, Russia and
[45:03] Speaker 1: the United States, uh to continue this to these talks.
[45:06] Speaker 1: I mean, it's clear as fucking day that Russia is
[45:09] Speaker 1: not interested in this. I know the their economy is
[45:12] Speaker 1: based on war now, right, so if they if there
[45:14] Speaker 1: was a sudden halt to like fighting, you have to
[45:17] Speaker 1: assume between the time the sanctions get lifted and everything
[45:21] Speaker 1: happens where their economy comes back to normal, there's gonna
[45:24] Speaker 1: be a serious fucking dip in terms of I suppose
[45:27] Speaker 1: there's like like old school towns and the soap from
[45:30] Speaker 1: the Soviet era that have been like dead towns that
[45:33] Speaker 1: have come back to life to basically continue to like
[45:36] Speaker 1: feed the Russian war machine, you know, So like, how
[45:39] Speaker 1: are those people gonna feel now when you know war's over.
[45:43] Speaker 1: We don't need any more shells or any more anything, like,
[45:46] Speaker 1: you know, your factories are not shut down. So there's
[45:51] Speaker 1: an interesting thing going on here. I mean, I don't
[45:53] Speaker 1: know how it plays out. I hope, I hope there's
[45:55] Speaker 1: a ceeswire sooner rather than later. And I hope you
[45:57] Speaker 1: don't bend over completely fucking Russia.
[46:01] Speaker 3: Yeah, and it ultimately comes down to Ukraine. They're going
[46:04] Speaker 3: to keep fighting and Europe has all the not only
[46:07] Speaker 3: moral reasons to support them, but like actually, you know,
[46:12] Speaker 3: like it's they could be next. There's other countries that
[46:15] Speaker 3: are you know, in Europe that aren't protected by NATO,
[46:18] Speaker 3: and people are questioning whether Nate the Article five is
[46:21] Speaker 3: as iron cloud as it was believed to be. Hopefully
[46:24] Speaker 3: it is, but it's it's it's time to it's pastime
[46:30] Speaker 3: for europe being leaders to step up and start being
[46:33] Speaker 3: completely in lockstep with Ukraine.
[46:35] Speaker 1: Like get ready.
[46:38] Speaker 3: I think I think they should start mobilizing forces. You
[46:40] Speaker 3: are ready to go in if they have to. Maybe
[46:43] Speaker 3: they leave it as a strategic ambiguity and whether when
[46:46] Speaker 3: and you know when the line is.
[46:48] Speaker 1: But have like a solid amount of guys ready to
[46:54] Speaker 1: go like mobilized.
[46:55] Speaker 3: Yeah, Like why would you not do that?
[46:58] Speaker 1: Exactly?
[46:59] Speaker 3: Oh, you're gonna tagonized? Come on, man, I mean if
[47:01] Speaker 3: you haven't figured out that, yes, it's anything you do,
[47:04] Speaker 3: they're gonna threaten nuclear war and he can go down
[47:07] Speaker 3: the list. Right, So it's it's literally everything you don't
[47:11] Speaker 3: do to confront a bullet, right, don't just sit in
[47:16] Speaker 3: your chair. Wait where your buddy get his head bashed
[47:19] Speaker 3: in with a lunch bucket, right, I mean you gotta
[47:22] Speaker 3: like it's all in or they just the village just
[47:26] Speaker 3: keeps guilt, just picks you off one at a time.
[47:28] Speaker 1: Yeah.
[47:29] Speaker 3: I don't know if that analogy work, but I think
[47:31] Speaker 3: you guys do.
[47:32] Speaker 1: No, it totally makes sense. I mean Russia's got to
[47:34] Speaker 1: get peep whacked. And now frankly they have been peep whacked. Right,
[47:37] Speaker 1: we were talking about this closing in on four years ago,
[47:41] Speaker 1: that they were gonna take over Ukraine in a couple
[47:44] Speaker 1: of weeks or five days, and there's it fluctuates, but
[47:46] Speaker 1: it was relatively short and it's four years down the road.
[47:50] Speaker 1: You know, Russia isn't exactly the fucking superpower everyone talked
[47:58] Speaker 1: about them being so. And also just to say like
[48:00] Speaker 1: also to talk about them like attacking a European country.
[48:05] Speaker 1: There's no way they can sustain a double front of war.
[48:09] Speaker 1: I mean unless they completely mobilize, and god knows what
[48:13] Speaker 1: that what that makes the Russian actual populace do, right,
[48:17] Speaker 1: like where they're plucking kids out of Moscow and Saint Petersburg.
[48:21] Speaker 1: I don't really think like the elite of Russia are
[48:24] Speaker 1: going to be really cool with that. They're cool with
[48:25] Speaker 1: like the people in the East getting sent over and
[48:28] Speaker 1: the poor people getting sent over. That's all good, and
[48:30] Speaker 1: let's bring in some prisoners. Anyways, it costs money to
[48:33] Speaker 1: keep them in jail anyway, send them to the front.
[48:36] Speaker 1: But once like the you know, upper middle class kids
[48:38] Speaker 1: from Saint Pete and and Moscow. So am getting sent
[48:42] Speaker 1: to the front line, to the meat, the meat grinder.
[48:44] Speaker 1: Let's see how how much regime security Uncle Volad's got. Yeah,
[48:52] Speaker 1: all right, I'm red hot, guys. I'm red hot on
[48:54] Speaker 1: this Sunday morning. I want everyone to do me a
[48:59] Speaker 1: favor unless you guys, guy, is there anything else? Tell me? Okay?
[49:05] Speaker 1: Mixed podcast Pup in the Porch Applied Stoicism. It's a
[49:08] Speaker 1: great pod. I listened to it right after I do
[49:10] Speaker 1: this show because I get so heated up and I
[49:12] Speaker 1: need to chill out. Then. Yeah, it comes out every Monday.
[49:17] Speaker 1: Check that out that links are in the description. Jason
[49:20] Speaker 1: Lyones His links are in the description. Ay Melbourne links
[49:23] Speaker 1: are into the description. Best way to support the show
[49:26] Speaker 1: is Patreon dot com, slash the Teamhouse. You get both
[49:28] Speaker 1: Eyes On and Teamhouse episodes AD free and early. You
[49:32] Speaker 1: get them right away. You can ask us questions, you
[49:35] Speaker 1: can do all that, and you can support the show.
[49:38] Speaker 1: So again, guys, thank you. Merry Christmas to everybody, and
[49:42] Speaker 1: we'll see you next week.
[49:44] Speaker 3: Take care, Boddy, take care gents.
[49:48] Speaker 4: Hey, guys, I want to tell all of you today
[49:50] Speaker 4: about a new newsletter that we're launching that encompasses both
[49:53] Speaker 4: the Teamhouse podcast, the eyes On podcast, and the high
[49:57] Speaker 4: Side News outlet, which I run with Sean Naylor. The
[50:02] Speaker 4: newsletter is gonna be once a week. It's gonna come
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[50:21] Speaker 1: Know what you're gonna get. So this is a once
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[50:27] Speaker 4: know the greatest hits of that week.
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[50:32] Speaker 4: The website for it is Teamhouse Podcast dot kit dot com,
[50:36] Speaker 4: slash join, Teamhouse Podcast dot kit dot com slash join.
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