# Finding Opportunity in a Complex Energy Transition

An episode of [Switched On](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1469286286), 31 Mar 2026, 20 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/01a10738-3608-4dec-883c-ae3c00026b36/91fa41df-778f-4146-8d29-b41e00ae4ac9/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=6d114f63-833d-4b78-bbf5-ae3c00026b44

The energy transition is entering a more complex phase. Geopolitics, trade tensions and rapid technological change are reshaping markets, creating new risks as well as new opportunities. Demand is rising across clean power, electric vehicles and data centers, even as supply chains tighten and policy becomes more fragmented. At the same time, falling costs and new business models are opening fresh pathways for investment. So how can global markets navigate this complexity – and where are the opportunities emerging in the next phase of the transition? On today’s show, Kobad Bhavnagri, BloombergNEF’s head of strategy, reads a briefing note that was presented by BNEF CEO Jon Moore at this year’s Davos summit, titled “The Energy Transition: Finding Opportunity in Complexity.” Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: This is tomern Ands Reese and you're listening to Switched
[0:02] Speaker 1: on the podcast brought to you by Bloomberg and EF.
[0:05] Speaker 1: The energy transition is now more complex than ever. Geopolitics,
[0:08] Speaker 1: trade tensions, and rapid technological change are reshaping markets, creating
[0:12] Speaker 1: new risks but also new opportunities across clean power, electric vehicles,
[0:16] Speaker 1: and data centers. Demand is rising quickly, even as supply
[0:20] Speaker 1: chains titan and policy becomes more fragmented. At the same time,
[0:23] Speaker 1: falling costs, new business models, and shifting trade flows are
[0:26] Speaker 1: opening the door to wider adoption and investment. So how
[0:29] Speaker 1: do we make sense of this new phase of the
[0:31] Speaker 1: energy transition and where might opportunities be found? Today's episode
[0:35] Speaker 1: is a little different. At this year's Davos, the only
[0:38] Speaker 1: F CEO, John Moore, presented a briefing note titled the
[0:40] Speaker 1: Energy Transition, Finding opportunity and Complexity. In this episode, BNF's
[0:45] Speaker 1: head of Strategy, kobab Bavner Greek reads that note in
[0:48] Speaker 1: full and a final message before we begin. Earlier this month,
[0:51] Speaker 1: John Moore announced that he will retire in April after
[0:54] Speaker 1: eighteen years with the organization, including twelve as CEO. Bloomberg
[0:58] Speaker 1: has appointed Albert Chung as a new CEO of Bloomberg
[1:00] Speaker 1: and EF. We wish John all the very best for
[1:02] Speaker 1: his retirement. BNF clients can find further transition research by
[1:06] Speaker 1: heading to BNIF, go on the Bloomberg terminal, or BNIF
[1:08] Speaker 1: dot com. If you'd like to learn more about how
[1:10] Speaker 1: BNF approaches strategy research on the energy transition, including developments
[1:14] Speaker 1: and commodity markets, trends across different sectors, and the cross
[1:17] Speaker 1: cutting technology shaping the future, you can find more information
[1:20] Speaker 1: on BNF dot com and if you'd like to speak
[1:22] Speaker 1: with a member of our sales team about becoming a client,
[1:25] Speaker 1: email US at Sales BNF at Bloomberg dot net. But
[1:28] Speaker 1: for now, let's take a look at the opportunities in
[1:30] Speaker 1: our current era of complexity.
[1:43] Speaker 2: The energy transition. Finding Opportunity in Complexity a BNF briefing
[1:49] Speaker 2: note for the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting twenty twenty six.
[1:55] Speaker 2: The last year has been one of extraordinary complexity, marked
[1:58] Speaker 2: by huge geopolitical shifts, continued armed conflict, and imminent technological
[2:03] Speaker 2: disruption from artificial intelligence. The energy transition is central too,
[2:09] Speaker 2: and deeply impacted by each of these stories. Tariffs and
[2:13] Speaker 2: other protectionist measures are disrupting trade flows and driving up
[2:18] Speaker 2: price tags for low carbon technologies, Yet falling manufacturing costs
[2:22] Speaker 2: have made renewables the cheapest choice for new build electricity
[2:26] Speaker 2: in much of the world. Data centers and electric vehicles
[2:29] Speaker 2: are sparking a boom in electricity demand, snarling gridqueues and
[2:34] Speaker 2: straining supply, yet this could prove to be a boon
[2:37] Speaker 2: for clean power of all types, power purchase agreements, and
[2:41] Speaker 2: even carbon capture and storage. Several metals that are critical
[2:46] Speaker 2: to energy transition technologies are entering a supply crunch, yet
[2:50] Speaker 2: new sources of supply and an increasingly robust battery recycling
[2:54] Speaker 2: industry are helping balance the market. Some sectors, such as
[2:59] Speaker 2: aviation heavy industry, remains stubbornly difficult to decarbonize, yet a
[3:04] Speaker 2: growing appetite for green products in selected sectors is helping
[3:08] Speaker 2: nascent technologies get off the ground. Finally, extreme weather events
[3:12] Speaker 2: caused more than one trillion dollars of damages each year
[3:15] Speaker 2: between twenty twenty and twenty twenty four, Yet this ongoing
[3:19] Speaker 2: threat is also paving the way for climate adaptation activities
[3:22] Speaker 2: and investment around the globe. Embedded in each of these
[3:26] Speaker 2: complex stories are significant business opportunities, some of which are
[3:30] Speaker 2: summarized in this white paper. Tariffs, exports and onshoring. Tariffs
[3:38] Speaker 2: and trade volatility were one of the marquee stories of
[3:41] Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. Yet, while protectionist measures make headlines inexpensive,
[3:46] Speaker 2: clean tech exports, especially from China, now helping the energy
[3:50] Speaker 2: transition expand around the globe. This influx of cheap, low
[3:54] Speaker 2: carbon technologies is allowing a wider array of companies to
[3:58] Speaker 2: get into the clean tech game and bring these technologies
[4:01] Speaker 2: to new shores. US President Donald Trump's second administration has
[4:06] Speaker 2: brought a marked volatility to this. International trade duties have
[4:10] Speaker 2: been raised, reversed, or abandoned with little warning, forcing renewable
[4:15] Speaker 2: energy developers to reroot supply chains, and putting a dent
[4:19] Speaker 2: in plans to grow US manufacturing. In more general terms, though,
[4:23] Speaker 2: while the US nacts barriers, China is expanding exports and
[4:27] Speaker 2: manufacturing investments like never before. Facing low margins at home,
[4:32] Speaker 2: Chinese clean tech manufacturers are eager to expand their footprint abroad.
[4:37] Speaker 2: Lower income countries are particularly enthusiastic in courting Chinese investment.
[4:43] Speaker 2: The share of Chinese clean tech exports to low to
[4:46] Speaker 2: upper middle income countries rose by an average of twenty
[4:50] Speaker 2: seven percentage points from twenty twenty two to twenty twenty four,
[4:54] Speaker 2: contributing to a boom in renewable energy deployment, energy storage projects,
[4:59] Speaker 2: and electrified transport in emerging markets. Emerging markets FA sub
[5:04] Speaker 2: balancing act. Low cost imports are allowing these countries to
[5:07] Speaker 2: shore up their energy supplies and decarbonize much faster than
[5:11] Speaker 2: once anticipated. Yet they could also undercut attempts to grow
[5:16] Speaker 2: local manufacturing capacity. Public funding allocated to ensuring supply chains
[5:21] Speaker 2: is in short supply. Historically low prices the product of
[5:26] Speaker 2: overcapacity across several sectors, do not help. Some governments are
[5:30] Speaker 2: thus putting up tariffs and employing strategies to court manufacturing
[5:34] Speaker 2: investment from China rather than simply importing finished goods, and
[5:39] Speaker 2: some regions are making serious headway. India, for instance, is
[5:43] Speaker 2: expanding its local supply chains at pace. The country's photovoltaic
[5:47] Speaker 2: solder production is moving upstream, with sixty nine gigawatts per
[5:51] Speaker 2: year of solar cell capacity commissioned or announced since the
[5:55] Speaker 2: government declared a ban on imported cells from June twenty
[5:59] Speaker 2: twenty six and planned gigafactories will serve the country's growing
[6:03] Speaker 2: battery demand. AI data centers. Data centers are nothing if
[6:10] Speaker 2: not hungry for electricity. BENF expects a fourfold jump in
[6:14] Speaker 2: power demand from these facilities come twenty thirty five, squeezing
[6:18] Speaker 2: the world's electrical infrastructure, but also presenting a massive opportunity
[6:23] Speaker 2: for companies that can help meet this surging demand. To
[6:26] Speaker 2: put the AI power crunch into perspective, consider how data
[6:30] Speaker 2: centers are encroaching on global energy supplies. In twenty twenty four,
[6:35] Speaker 2: these facilities accounted for one point four percent of the
[6:38] Speaker 2: world's final energy demand. By twenty thirty five, they account
[6:42] Speaker 2: for four point five percent. Under benf's base case energy
[6:46] Speaker 2: transition scenario. Such a massive increase casts a long shadow
[6:51] Speaker 2: over the power system as a whole. In Texas, a
[6:54] Speaker 2: data center hub, some two hundred gigawatts of demand has
[6:57] Speaker 2: applied to connect to the power grid, more than double
[7:00] Speaker 2: peak demand and up from thirty five gigabots in twenty
[7:04] Speaker 2: twenty two. Of this, one hundred and forty four gigawots
[7:08] Speaker 2: is from data centers alone, a two hundred and fifty
[7:11] Speaker 2: percent jump in just two years. While it's unlikely that
[7:15] Speaker 2: all this demand will ultimately come online. The rate of
[7:18] Speaker 2: growth illustrates just how quickly the sector is expanding. Getting
[7:22] Speaker 2: all this supply and demand onto the grid requires not
[7:26] Speaker 2: only building out hard infrastructure, but also identifying new ways
[7:30] Speaker 2: of producing and distributing energy. Data centers are pushing developers
[7:35] Speaker 2: to enter the power market in new ways, locking down
[7:38] Speaker 2: clean electricity supply through power purchase agreements, restarting old nuclear plants,
[7:44] Speaker 2: and even getting into the power trading game. The data
[7:47] Speaker 2: center boom could also prove to be a boon for
[7:50] Speaker 2: Phase two clean tech technologies like carbon capture and storage.
[7:55] Speaker 2: Developers are also turning to carbon capture equipped to gas
[7:58] Speaker 2: plants to power their fee facilities while maintaining their green credentials.
[8:03] Speaker 2: Two major power purchase agreements from Google and Meta will
[8:07] Speaker 2: supply facilities with gas fired equipped ccs and could add
[8:11] Speaker 2: three million metric tons of annual capture capacity to BNF's
[8:15] Speaker 2: base case scenario by twenty thirty five. Electric vehicles one billion.
[8:22] Speaker 2: That's how many electric cars could be driving on the
[8:25] Speaker 2: world roads by twenty fifty, when the electric vehicle fleet
[8:29] Speaker 2: is expected to outnumber the world's gas cars two to one.
[8:33] Speaker 2: In BNF's base case scenario. Yet the rise of evs
[8:37] Speaker 2: is not simply a story of electric drive trains replacing
[8:40] Speaker 2: their internal combustion counterparts. Instead, fierce competition, especially in China,
[8:46] Speaker 2: is sparking innovation as automakers reimagine.
[8:50] Speaker 1: What the passenger car can be.
[8:52] Speaker 2: More than twenty one million new electric cars were expected
[8:55] Speaker 2: to drive off dealership lots in twenty twenty five, up
[8:58] Speaker 2: from seventeen point six million in the year before. By
[9:01] Speaker 2: twenty thirty, forty percent of newcast sales worldwide could come
[9:06] Speaker 2: with a plug. That's causing a huge shift away from
[9:09] Speaker 2: gasoline and diesel and toward electricity. BNF estimates that sales
[9:14] Speaker 2: of internal combustion engines have been declining since twenty seventeen.
[9:19] Speaker 2: Data centers may be getting the headlines, but evs are
[9:22] Speaker 2: set to drive more power demand growth over the next decade.
[9:26] Speaker 2: As EV's pull demand away from fossil fuels, they are
[9:30] Speaker 2: contributing to the same electricity supply crunch and opportunities as
[9:35] Speaker 2: data centers. BNF estimates EV charging will require nine hundred
[9:39] Speaker 2: and fifty billion dollars of investment over the next fifteen years,
[9:44] Speaker 2: and utilities are rolling out special tariffs to enable and
[9:47] Speaker 2: encourage new charging practices. In some ways, evs illustrate the
[9:52] Speaker 2: challenge of transitioning from a niche product to the mass
[9:55] Speaker 2: market as year on year growth rates slow. They've also
[9:59] Speaker 2: faced speed bump in twenty twenty five with a rollback
[10:02] Speaker 2: of supportive policy in the US and a proposal in
[10:06] Speaker 2: the EU to water down the block's tailpipe emissions targets. Yet,
[10:10] Speaker 2: the very fact that evs must now appeal to a
[10:13] Speaker 2: mass market means that affordability and innovation are the name
[10:17] Speaker 2: of the game. A relatively new drive train that can
[10:21] Speaker 2: help a lay range anxiety e revs or range extended
[10:25] Speaker 2: electric vehicles is on the rise. Car makers are also
[10:29] Speaker 2: appealing to customers with automated driving and other intelligent features,
[10:34] Speaker 2: and while robotaxis are a small part of the auto market,
[10:38] Speaker 2: being IF expects the number of vehicles on the road
[10:40] Speaker 2: to more than double this year. Renewables around the world,
[10:46] Speaker 2: a remarkable shift towards clean sources of electricity is underway.
[10:51] Speaker 2: The evolution isn't about climate goals, however, it's about economics.
[10:57] Speaker 2: Renewables are now the obvious opportunity when it comes to
[11:00] Speaker 2: supplying the world's energy needs. In countries accounting for two
[11:04] Speaker 2: thirds of the world's power supply. Wind or solar is
[11:07] Speaker 2: the cheaper source of new bulk electricity generation. On a
[11:11] Speaker 2: per kilobot hour basis, a new solar project is cheaper
[11:15] Speaker 2: than continuing to run coal or gas in Europe, India
[11:19] Speaker 2: and Brazil, and wind is cheaper in China. That influx
[11:24] Speaker 2: of clean power is fundamentally changing the world's energy mix.
[11:28] Speaker 2: Every year since twenty ten has posted a record for
[11:31] Speaker 2: renewables additions. Installed solar capacity has surpassed that of coal,
[11:36] Speaker 2: and while coal still produces more energy each year than solar,
[11:40] Speaker 2: that could soon change. Output from renewables is expected to
[11:44] Speaker 2: nearly quadruple by twenty fifty. That's compared with twenty five
[11:48] Speaker 2: percent growth between twenty twenty four and twenty fifty for
[11:52] Speaker 2: natural gas and a long term decline for coal and oil.
[11:57] Speaker 2: Simply flooding the grid with renewables isn't a bible strategy.
[12:01] Speaker 2: Regions with excellent wind and solar resources may not be
[12:04] Speaker 2: located near high population demand centers. Solar and wind generate
[12:09] Speaker 2: only when the sun shines, are the wind blows, and
[12:11] Speaker 2: excess output from renewables can overwhelm the grid. Forcing utilities
[12:16] Speaker 2: to curtail output, Yet that is creating an opening for
[12:19] Speaker 2: storage solutions. Batteries and energy storage are getting cheaper with
[12:24] Speaker 2: each passing year. Lithium ine battery prices have fallen to
[12:28] Speaker 2: one hundred and eight dollars per kilo what hour in
[12:30] Speaker 2: twenty twenty five, down eight percent year on year, and
[12:34] Speaker 2: down from nearly one thousand, five hundred dollars per kilo
[12:37] Speaker 2: what hour in the year twenty ten. That in turn
[12:41] Speaker 2: is decreasing the cost of colocating storage solutions with renewable output. Today,
[12:47] Speaker 2: building a colocated project is around twenty two percent less
[12:51] Speaker 2: expensive than building separate solar and storage arrays, suggesting that
[12:56] Speaker 2: the next phase of opportunity may lie in how renewable
[12:59] Speaker 2: technologies work together. Metals, the energy transition is a trillion
[13:06] Speaker 2: dollar opportunity for the metals industry. Around six trillion dollars
[13:11] Speaker 2: of metals will be needed between now and twenty fifty
[13:14] Speaker 2: to meet demand in benef's economic transition scenario. In a
[13:18] Speaker 2: scenario that achieves net zero, that figure jumps to ten
[13:22] Speaker 2: trillion dollars, from the steel and aluminium in wind and
[13:26] Speaker 2: solar farms to the graphite and lithium powering electric vehicle batteries.
[13:31] Speaker 2: Metals are everywhere in the technologies, enabling a low carbon future.
[13:36] Speaker 2: The resulting shifts in market balance illustrate not only where
[13:40] Speaker 2: opportunities exist, but also how producers and refiners are already
[13:46] Speaker 2: stepping in to meet growing demand. Consider lithium, a critical
[13:51] Speaker 2: component of both electric vehicle batteries and energy storage solutions.
[13:56] Speaker 2: Lithium demand triples by twenty thirty five in benf it's
[14:00] Speaker 2: most recent Transition Metals outlook. Yet there is no supply
[14:04] Speaker 2: crunch on the horizon, as new sources in South America
[14:08] Speaker 2: and Africa and a growing battery recycling market are helping
[14:12] Speaker 2: keep the market stocked. Copper, by contrast, represents an opportunity
[14:17] Speaker 2: still waiting to be seized. Declining all grades at existing
[14:21] Speaker 2: minds and limited investment into new deposits have put a
[14:25] Speaker 2: lid on expected supply. A massive deficit amounting to some
[14:30] Speaker 2: nineteen million metric tons by twenty fifty looms if new
[14:35] Speaker 2: mines and recycling facilities are not built over the next decade.
[14:39] Speaker 2: The data center boom is further exacerbating this tight copper market.
[14:44] Speaker 2: New facilities are denser and more energy intensive, and thus
[14:48] Speaker 2: require more copper than traditional facilities. While demand from data
[14:53] Speaker 2: centers is only a small sliver of overall supply, it
[14:56] Speaker 2: suggests that big tech could face stiff competition for FI
[15:00] Speaker 2: this key metal hard to abate sectors. Some sectors, including
[15:06] Speaker 2: shipping and aviation, heavy industry, and baseload clean power, have
[15:11] Speaker 2: proven to be particularly complex to decarbonize. Hydrogen, carbon capture, biofuels,
[15:18] Speaker 2: nuclear and heat pumps sit at the heart of efforts
[15:22] Speaker 2: to decarbonize these stubborn sectors, but none of them are
[15:26] Speaker 2: economic on their own. The scaling opportunity will lie in
[15:30] Speaker 2: finding innovative business models and formulas to de risk project
[15:35] Speaker 2: financing and to support this. Both robust policy and a
[15:39] Speaker 2: market that can support green premium prices are required. While
[15:44] Speaker 2: this may sound complex to achieve, there are some early
[15:47] Speaker 2: success stories. Take green steel as an example. Over the
[15:51] Speaker 2: past three years, one hundred and ninety one off takes
[15:54] Speaker 2: have been signed for clean steel globally. Automakers and auto
[15:58] Speaker 2: suppliers have account for more than a quarter of green
[16:02] Speaker 2: steel offtake agreements tracked by BNF. Two elements are key
[16:07] Speaker 2: to the dominance of the auto sector in clean steel
[16:10] Speaker 2: off takes. First, the steel value chain for autos is
[16:14] Speaker 2: very short, unlike other manufacturing value chains. This means green
[16:19] Speaker 2: demand signals from consumers are not watered down through a
[16:23] Speaker 2: long chain of intermediaries, unlike in other sectors. Costly clean
[16:28] Speaker 2: steel plants are thus more bankable, as these customers are
[16:32] Speaker 2: more willing to sign a binding price premium off take,
[16:36] Speaker 2: and second, the car companies signing these off takes tend
[16:40] Speaker 2: to make higher value cars, for which the price premium
[16:43] Speaker 2: of clean steel in the car is a minor inconvenience
[16:47] Speaker 2: to the buyer. An emerging business model that could help
[16:50] Speaker 2: kickstart small volumes of green materials is book and claim,
[16:55] Speaker 2: which decouples climate benefits from the physical delivery of a product.
[17:00] Speaker 2: Companies such as Microsoft have been buying environmental attribute certificates
[17:05] Speaker 2: or EACs from buy fuels, clean steel, and clean cement
[17:09] Speaker 2: companies as a way of funding the green premium required
[17:13] Speaker 2: to finance these projects, but then buying nearby gray fuels
[17:17] Speaker 2: or materials to serve its immediate needs. If widely accepted,
[17:22] Speaker 2: this book and claim model could ease the path for
[17:26] Speaker 2: end customers to slash emissions from materials use, simplify supply
[17:30] Speaker 2: chain management, and help finance green material production, climate adaptation activities,
[17:39] Speaker 2: climate related damages cost the global economy one point four
[17:43] Speaker 2: trillion dollars in twenty twenty four, according to data from
[17:47] Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence. That represents a tenfold jump from the year
[17:51] Speaker 2: two thousand and with virtually every year breaking a temperature record,
[17:56] Speaker 2: these financial impacts are only going to get worse. Adaptation
[18:00] Speaker 2: to climate change is thus no longer optional. Instead, it's
[18:04] Speaker 2: an imperative, and viewed correctly, it's also a trillion dollar opportunity.
[18:10] Speaker 2: Climate adaptation is a particularly complex challenge. In many areas
[18:15] Speaker 2: of the energy transition, a single broad solution can be
[18:18] Speaker 2: deployed to address an array of challenges renewables for clean power,
[18:23] Speaker 2: electric vehicles for clean transport, and the like. By contrast,
[18:27] Speaker 2: adaptation lends itself to no single solution. Each locality faces
[18:32] Speaker 2: its own combination of extreme weather events and potential solutions.
[18:37] Speaker 2: That said, global markets are beginning to respond to these challenges.
[18:41] Speaker 2: In the short term, companies are leaning on insurance to
[18:44] Speaker 2: ameliorate the worst damages. In the longer term, a new
[18:49] Speaker 2: market for adaptation solutions will almost surely arise, and revenue
[18:54] Speaker 2: opportunity could find its way to beneficiaries as diverse as
[18:57] Speaker 2: contractors that build adaptation in front structure, or startups developing
[19:02] Speaker 2: forecasting software, or commodity suppliers developing resistant materials. The hopeful
[19:08] Speaker 2: part of this story is that we're already spending more
[19:11] Speaker 2: than one trillion dollars a year reacting to damage. By
[19:15] Speaker 2: guiding finances towards resilience, money that would otherwise have been
[19:19] Speaker 2: spent on recovery can be guided toward further adaptation efforts,
[19:24] Speaker 2: sparking a positive feedback loop and supporting a nascent industry.
[19:37] Speaker 2: Today's episode of Switched On was produced by Cam Gray
[19:40] Speaker 2: with production assistance from Kamala Shelling.
[19:43] Speaker 1: Bloomberg NEF is a service provided by Bloomberg Finance LP
[19:46] Speaker 1: and its affiliates. This recording does not constitute, nor should
[19:49] Speaker 1: it be construed as investment invise, investment recommendations, or a
[19:53] Speaker 1: recommendation as to an investment or other strategy.
[19:55] Speaker 2: Bloomberg ANNIAF should not be considered as information sufficient upon
[19:59] Speaker 2: which to base an investment decision. Neither Bloomberg Finance LP
[20:02] Speaker 2: nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty
[20:05] Speaker 2: as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained
[20:09] Speaker 2: in this recording, and any liability as a result of
[20:11] Speaker 2: this recording is expressly disclaimed.

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