# COP30 Countdown: Ambition, Politics, Reality

An episode of [Switched On](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1469286286), 30 Oct 2025, 32 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/01a10738-3608-4dec-883c-ae3c00026b36/c47a2155-c934-4315-b753-b3850167f226/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=6d114f63-833d-4b78-bbf5-ae3c00026b44

In a few days’ time, world leaders will gather in Brazil for the COP30 climate conference. It’s been 10 years since the Paris Agreement laid out ambitions for a net-zero future, yet momentum is waning. Fewer than a third of nations have submitted their 2035 climate pledges, and current trajectories suggest that the global warming threshold agreed in Paris will be far exceeded by the end of the century. Political shifts, economic pressures, and the US’s withdrawal from the Agreement are all casting a shadow over the upcoming negotiations. Still, there are glimmers of progress, including China unveiling its first absolute emissions target and Brazil pushing for a global carbon market. So can COP30 reignite the collective drive toward net zero? On today’s show, Kobad Bhavnagri is joined by BloombergNEF’s head of global policy, Victoria Cuming, and energy transitions associate Brynne Mary Merkley to discuss their recent note “COP30 Climate Talks to Advance Amid Geopolitical Turmoil.” Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: COP30 Climate Talks to Advance Amid Geopolitical Turmoil - https://www.bnef.com/insights/37817 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: This is Cobald Barbnagrie and you're listening to Switched on
[0:03] Speaker 1: the podcast brought to you by Bloomberg NIAF. Global climate
[0:07] Speaker 1: negotiations are approaching a critical juncture as countries prepare to
[0:11] Speaker 1: meet in Brazil for COP thirty, ten years after the
[0:14] Speaker 1: Paris Agreement first set the world on a shared path
[0:18] Speaker 1: towards net zero, but that momentum has slowed. Only around
[0:22] Speaker 1: a third of nations have submitted new pledges, and together
[0:25] Speaker 1: they still point to roughly two point seven degrees of
[0:28] Speaker 1: warming by centuries and political shifts, economic pressures, and the
[0:33] Speaker 1: absence of US leadership have further tested both ambition and resolve,
[0:38] Speaker 1: leaving the global process more fragmented than before. Still, there
[0:42] Speaker 1: are reasons for cautious optimism, with China announcing its first
[0:47] Speaker 1: absolute emissions target, the EU edging toward a new twenty
[0:51] Speaker 1: thirty five goal, and Brazil working to revive progress on
[0:55] Speaker 1: carbon markets and renewables. As delegates gather in Balam, the
[0:59] Speaker 1: question is whether COP thirty can restore the sense of
[1:02] Speaker 1: collective purpose that defined Paris or confirm that global unity
[1:06] Speaker 1: on climate is slipping away. On today's show, I'm joined
[1:10] Speaker 1: by Bloomberg NIF's head of Global Policy, Victoria Cumming and
[1:14] Speaker 1: Energy Transitions Associate Brinn Mary Murkley to discuss their recent
[1:18] Speaker 1: note COP thirty Climate Talks to advance a mid geopolitical turmoil.
[1:23] Speaker 1: BNF clients can find this note by heading to BNYF
[1:27] Speaker 1: go on the Bloomberg terminal ORBNF dot com, where you
[1:31] Speaker 1: can also register for a webinar coming up on the
[1:33] Speaker 1: fifth of November titled COP thirty Reality Check Which markets
[1:38] Speaker 1: have delivered on their promises. If you'd like to learn
[1:41] Speaker 1: more about how BNF approaches strategic research on the energy transition,
[1:46] Speaker 1: including developments in commodity markets, trends across different sectors, and
[1:50] Speaker 1: the cross cutting technologies shaping the future, you can find
[1:53] Speaker 1: more information on BNF dot com, and if you'd like
[1:57] Speaker 1: to speak with a member of our team about becoming
[1:59] Speaker 1: a client, email us at Sales dot BNF at Bloomberg
[2:03] Speaker 1: dot net. So let's take a closer look at how
[2:07] Speaker 1: COP thirty could shape global climate ambition and what it
[2:10] Speaker 1: will take to turn new pledges into lasting action. Vicky,
[2:24] Speaker 1: welcome to the show.
[2:25] Speaker 2: Thank you very much for having us delighted to be
[2:27] Speaker 2: here and talking about all things COP and Brinn.
[2:31] Speaker 1: Really great to have you with us as well.
[2:33] Speaker 3: Thank you, corb Ada. I'm really excited to be here
[2:35] Speaker 3: and talk about the upcoming COP thirty.
[2:37] Speaker 1: We are on the eve of COP thirty in Brazil,
[2:41] Speaker 1: which is one of the more significant COPS on the
[2:45] Speaker 1: annual rostrum of UN conventions. To start off, Vicky, can
[2:50] Speaker 1: you tell us what is a COP and what is
[2:53] Speaker 1: the significance of a COP? And first, what does that
[2:55] Speaker 1: acronym even mean?
[2:57] Speaker 2: Yes, the climate negotiations and environments on negotiations in general
[3:01] Speaker 2: really do enjoy an acronym. So when people talk about
[3:05] Speaker 2: COP in this instance, they mean the Conference of the
[3:08] Speaker 2: Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,
[3:12] Speaker 2: which is quite a mouthful. So these are typically annual
[3:16] Speaker 2: climate summits where the two hundred or so countries and
[3:20] Speaker 2: regions that have signed up to the Framework Convention meet
[3:23] Speaker 2: to discuss how to collaborate cooperate on how to tackle
[3:28] Speaker 2: climate change. As you alluded, there are indeed multiple cops.
[3:31] Speaker 2: So there as one on biodiversity, there's one on desertification.
[3:35] Speaker 2: But generally when people talk about COP, they are talking
[3:37] Speaker 2: about the climate one and in terms of why that matters,
[3:41] Speaker 2: So the idea is that it will be more effective
[3:45] Speaker 2: and more cost effective if countries actually collaborate on tackling
[3:49] Speaker 2: climate change. So this is their opportunity to talk about
[3:52] Speaker 2: kind of what terms of multilateral action. And the idea
[3:57] Speaker 2: is that decisions that are made at COP, which as
[4:00] Speaker 2: a side note for the climate geeks among us, they
[4:03] Speaker 2: have to be done by consensus, so that means that
[4:05] Speaker 2: a decision is past provided there's not a major objection,
[4:09] Speaker 2: rather than unanimity where all parties have to actually agree
[4:13] Speaker 2: actively to a particular proposal. So the idea is that
[4:16] Speaker 2: decisions made at COP feed down into the kind of
[4:19] Speaker 2: national level policies. So one of the key topics that
[4:22] Speaker 2: we're going to be talking about is climate ambitions. That's
[4:25] Speaker 2: the ambition of these climate action pledges, and the idea
[4:29] Speaker 2: is that countries will agree a kind of overall level
[4:32] Speaker 2: ambition that will then determine how they plan to contribute
[4:36] Speaker 2: to that global effort, which then feeds down into national
[4:39] Speaker 2: level policies at a sector level, which could therefore directly
[4:43] Speaker 2: impact companies and consumers. The other aspect is that there
[4:47] Speaker 2: are also agreements made at COP that relate to actually
[4:51] Speaker 2: specific initiatives for example, around carbon markets. So one of
[4:55] Speaker 2: the big topics in the LEM this year will be
[4:58] Speaker 2: about what's called Article six, which is essentially carbon market mechanisms,
[5:03] Speaker 2: and these well some of these will be open to
[5:06] Speaker 2: companies and kind of the private sector. So the idea
[5:09] Speaker 2: is it's kind of a filter down approach, and that's
[5:11] Speaker 2: why it kind of matters for companies to keep an
[5:13] Speaker 2: eye on.
[5:14] Speaker 1: So that point about unanimity is a very important one,
[5:18] Speaker 1: which we will come back to towards the end. But
[5:21] Speaker 1: I want to just clarify. So this is the thirtieth
[5:24] Speaker 1: conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Conventional Climate
[5:27] Speaker 1: chanin So there's been thirty of these previously. Why is
[5:31] Speaker 1: this one particularly important?
[5:34] Speaker 2: So one of the key reasons why this one is
[5:36] Speaker 2: particularly important is, first of all, it marks ten years
[5:40] Speaker 2: since the Paris Agreement was reached. So you may have
[5:44] Speaker 2: heard of the Kyoto Protocol that was one of the
[5:47] Speaker 2: kind of groundbreaking climate deals agreed in the past, but
[5:50] Speaker 2: the most recent one is called the Paris Agreement, and
[5:53] Speaker 2: we've had ten years under that and one of the
[5:56] Speaker 2: key aspects of the Paris Agreement was it took a
[5:58] Speaker 2: completely different approach the Kyoto Protocol which imposed top down
[6:03] Speaker 2: kind of binding targets on what would be called developed
[6:06] Speaker 2: economies gid to. It's right absolutely that it imposed them,
[6:10] Speaker 2: not all of them actually adhered to them. But with
[6:12] Speaker 2: the Paris Agreement, it imposed all parties were meant to
[6:17] Speaker 2: commit to voluntary pledges. So they decided on how they
[6:20] Speaker 2: wanted to contribute to the overall goals of the Paris Agreement,
[6:23] Speaker 2: which are to limit the global surface temperature increase by
[6:27] Speaker 2: two degrees by the end of the century and to
[6:30] Speaker 2: make best efforts to limit global warming to one point
[6:34] Speaker 2: five degrees. One of the key aspects therefore the Paris
[6:36] Speaker 2: Agreement was this new kind of reporting cycle of countries
[6:40] Speaker 2: make pledges, then there's an assessment which is called the
[6:43] Speaker 2: global stock take of progress towards the overall Paris Agreement goals,
[6:47] Speaker 2: and then countries make more ambitious pledges. BELLM is important
[6:51] Speaker 2: because countries are meant to come with these more ambitious policies.
[6:54] Speaker 2: So it's a key test of whether the Paris Agreement
[6:57] Speaker 2: is actually being an effective mechanism. And indeed, the whole
[7:01] Speaker 2: UNF Triple C COP process.
[7:03] Speaker 1: And the last time we had this pledge process at
[7:07] Speaker 1: a COP was in Glasgow, right, I forgured the number
[7:09] Speaker 1: of that COP, but that was regarded as quite a
[7:11] Speaker 1: success where countries really did come together and pledge fairly
[7:15] Speaker 1: significant Twenty thirty targets. What is the mood in the
[7:18] Speaker 1: run up to this cop the Brazil presidency or their
[7:21] Speaker 1: expectations that they're going to be able to deliver in
[7:24] Speaker 1: the same way that the UK presidency did for Glasgow Cop.
[7:27] Speaker 2: I think that the Brazil residency would certainly hope that
[7:31] Speaker 2: it will deliver us similarly successful cop as Cop twenty
[7:35] Speaker 2: six in Glasgow. Our expectations are that it won't be
[7:39] Speaker 2: such a resounding success. I think one of the key
[7:43] Speaker 2: areas where the climate negotiations do tend to be weaker
[7:46] Speaker 2: in terms of their progress is around ambition, and that
[7:50] Speaker 2: is a key topic for this year's COP. So in
[7:52] Speaker 2: some respects it will be very difficult for Cop thirty
[7:55] Speaker 2: to be marked as a kind of a huge step forward.
[7:58] Speaker 2: That doesn't mean there will be no kind of errors
[8:00] Speaker 2: of progress, but overall we're not overly optimistic.
[8:05] Speaker 1: And so Vicky, you're a bit of a cop queen.
[8:07] Speaker 1: I mean, how many cops is this now that you
[8:09] Speaker 1: would have analyzed and covered from so.
[8:11] Speaker 2: I think I first started directly working on cop content
[8:16] Speaker 2: at two thousand and nine, so I think actually just
[8:19] Speaker 2: after the Copenhagen cop which was widely considered a failure.
[8:25] Speaker 2: We've certainly seen gradual progress and improvement on Copenhagen.
[8:29] Speaker 1: So that's quite a lot of cops. And now I'm
[8:32] Speaker 1: sure you're very relieved to have an apprentice here with you, Brinn.
[8:36] Speaker 1: Welcome to the Cops Circus and the Cops circuit. Can
[8:40] Speaker 1: you tell us a little bit more about NDC's. What
[8:43] Speaker 1: are they? Firstly, if we just start there, what are they?
[8:46] Speaker 1: And then we can talk about what we think they're
[8:48] Speaker 1: going to be.
[8:48] Speaker 3: Absolutely so, the NDCs are these country plans that Vicky
[8:53] Speaker 3: was alluding to that came into play under the Paris
[8:56] Speaker 3: Agreement when countries committed to one point five degree world
[9:02] Speaker 3: and these are due every five years. In NBC's they
[9:06] Speaker 3: stand for Nationally Determined Contributions, so they due every five years,
[9:10] Speaker 3: and this year they were meant to include twenty thirty
[9:13] Speaker 3: five emission reduction targets. But you know, we're just we're
[9:17] Speaker 3: less than two weeks away from the kickoff of KOP
[9:19] Speaker 3: and only sixty two parties have actually made their submissions.
[9:23] Speaker 3: So you know, with that question you asked about how
[9:26] Speaker 3: successful the Brazil will be over the UK. It's also
[9:30] Speaker 3: kind of a question of the global scene right now
[9:35] Speaker 3: on ambition, which doesn't have necessarily as much to do
[9:38] Speaker 3: with Brazil, but just that there has been a slow
[9:41] Speaker 3: down on climate ambition as countries navigate other kind of
[9:45] Speaker 3: competing priorities, and as the US has left the Paris Agreement,
[9:50] Speaker 3: in large economies like the EU have been quite slow
[9:53] Speaker 3: to make their submissions.
[9:54] Speaker 1: So in the lead up to Glasgow, we had a
[9:57] Speaker 1: democratic US presidency which was quite involved in the in
[10:00] Speaker 1: a cop process. And did we also have a pact
[10:02] Speaker 1: between the US and China which was agreed in advance
[10:06] Speaker 1: of the CORP, which helped set the stage for global ambition.
[10:09] Speaker 1: Is that corrector am I recalling that wrong?
[10:11] Speaker 2: That was definitely the case. We did have an agreement
[10:15] Speaker 2: between the US and China announced for for Glasgow, which
[10:18] Speaker 2: did indeed, as the two biggest emitters, means that they
[10:21] Speaker 2: have a fair amount of kind of influence at COX,
[10:24] Speaker 2: so that did help things. But that was actually they
[10:27] Speaker 2: reached a similar if unofficial agreement before Paris, and that
[10:31] Speaker 2: was the key reason why actually the Paris Agreement was
[10:34] Speaker 2: able to be reached. I would say though, that we've
[10:37] Speaker 2: seen a lot of headlines since January around this kind
[10:40] Speaker 2: of slow down in low carbon policy. And yes, of
[10:44] Speaker 2: course we have seen kind of rising geopolitical tensions, trade wars.
[10:49] Speaker 3: The US.
[10:49] Speaker 2: Trump one of his first actions when he came back
[10:52] Speaker 2: into the Oval Office was to sign an executive order
[10:55] Speaker 2: to exit the Paris Agreement. And indeed he has taken
[11:00] Speaker 2: many steps to kind of invalidate or gut formed of
[11:04] Speaker 2: the better description domestic low carbon policy. But based on
[11:08] Speaker 2: our Policy Scoreboard report that we're going to be publishing
[11:11] Speaker 2: on the third of November, shows that there are signs
[11:14] Speaker 2: for actual continued ambition and actual countries continuing to implement
[11:20] Speaker 2: concrete low carbon policy support.
[11:22] Speaker 1: But so, how much do cops risen for the success
[11:25] Speaker 1: of a cop how much do they risen for on
[11:27] Speaker 1: US leadership or the lack of the kind of crucial.
[11:31] Speaker 2: Point of the Paris Agreement is that all pledges are voluntary.
[11:35] Speaker 2: So the key kind of driver for parties to increase
[11:38] Speaker 2: the ambition of their pledges is peer pressure. Now, if
[11:41] Speaker 2: you have the second biggest emitter the country that was
[11:45] Speaker 2: responsible for the biggest share of historical emissions, which is
[11:48] Speaker 2: actually the crucial cause of climate change. And if you
[11:52] Speaker 2: have that party that's no longer in the room or
[11:55] Speaker 2: no longer participating actively in the negotiations under the Paris,
[12:00] Speaker 2: then there is less pressure on countries to actually increase
[12:04] Speaker 2: the ambition of their pledges. It also means that historically
[12:07] Speaker 2: the US has along with the European Union, been a
[12:11] Speaker 2: key player in pushing for more ambitious climate friendly outcomes
[12:15] Speaker 2: from COP. So now the EU is going to have
[12:18] Speaker 2: to look to other parties such as China to actually
[12:22] Speaker 2: kind to build alliances and to be able to push
[12:25] Speaker 2: through equally ambitious and bold climate decisions at COP. But
[12:30] Speaker 2: it doesn't mean the kind of end of COP. It
[12:32] Speaker 2: doesn't mean that nothing will be achieved in Belem. It
[12:37] Speaker 2: just means that it will spur other countries to actually
[12:40] Speaker 2: form alliances with other parties, and potentially it could mean
[12:44] Speaker 2: that countries that were undecided about their level of ambition
[12:48] Speaker 2: would might reduce the ambition of their pledges. But it
[12:51] Speaker 2: doesn't mean that suddenly, historically climate ambitious parties are suddenly
[12:55] Speaker 2: going to be not climate ambitious at all.
[12:57] Speaker 1: So the role of the EU has become more important
[13:00] Speaker 1: than ever in the absence of US leadership or indeed
[13:03] Speaker 1: participation in this camp, brit if I can bring you
[13:06] Speaker 1: back in here, what is the status of the EU?
[13:09] Speaker 1: Have they submitted their NDC?
[13:12] Speaker 3: So the EU has not submitted its NDC, which is
[13:16] Speaker 3: very out of character for a market that has really
[13:20] Speaker 3: led on climate ambition historically. And one reason that they
[13:24] Speaker 3: haven't submitted is because they have been trying to agree
[13:28] Speaker 3: on a twenty forty target before making their submission, and
[13:33] Speaker 3: the twenty forty target would amend the European Climate Law.
[13:37] Speaker 3: So over the summer the European Commission proposed this ninety
[13:41] Speaker 3: percent reduction from nineteen ninety levels by twenty forty, but
[13:45] Speaker 3: this has to go through the Council of the EU
[13:47] Speaker 3: as well as European Parliament to amend the European Climate Law,
[13:52] Speaker 3: and leaders have been unable to reach an agreement. So
[13:56] Speaker 3: as a result of not being able to agree on
[13:59] Speaker 3: the twenty four target, they have not submitted the twenty
[14:02] Speaker 3: thirty five target. And the twenty thirty five target does
[14:05] Speaker 3: not need the same legislative approval process as the European
[14:09] Speaker 3: Climate Law, so the Council of the EU last month
[14:13] Speaker 3: did submit a statement of intent on what its likely
[14:17] Speaker 3: twenty thirty five target would be, which is between sixty
[14:21] Speaker 3: six point twenty five and seventy two point five percent
[14:24] Speaker 3: reduction from nineteen ninety levels by twenty thirty five, but
[14:27] Speaker 3: this has not been formally agreed upon, and we thought
[14:31] Speaker 3: that they might formally agree in meetings last week in Brussels,
[14:35] Speaker 3: but no such agreement was made. And now we're looking
[14:39] Speaker 3: at November fourth, which is the next time that the
[14:42] Speaker 3: environmental ministers are going to meet, and that's just two
[14:45] Speaker 3: days before the kickoff the cop and we do believe
[14:48] Speaker 3: that they will solidify that twenty thirty five target during
[14:51] Speaker 3: that meeting. But target in the lower range is not
[14:54] Speaker 3: net zero aligned, but anything above seventy percent reduction, according
[14:59] Speaker 3: to our BNF analysis, is net zero aligned, and it
[15:02] Speaker 3: would keep the block on track as well for that
[15:05] Speaker 3: ninety percent target for twenty forty and net zero for
[15:09] Speaker 3: twenty fifty.
[15:10] Speaker 1: And so is that if it's zero aligned, is that
[15:15] Speaker 1: enough to keep in the spirit of the Paras agreement
[15:18] Speaker 1: and the mechanism of pledges, because that mechanism states that
[15:21] Speaker 1: each successive pledge should be more ambitious than the last
[15:26] Speaker 1: so what does that mean. Does that mean that the
[15:29] Speaker 1: overall trajectory needs to be going faster or does it
[15:33] Speaker 1: just mean that there needs to be a progression in
[15:36] Speaker 1: emissions reductions.
[15:37] Speaker 3: So in our analysis, the EU is on track to
[15:41] Speaker 3: me it's twenty thirty target, which is fifty five percent reduction,
[15:45] Speaker 3: and we do believe they can stay on track to
[15:49] Speaker 3: be net zero by twenty fifty. But this isn't necessarily
[15:52] Speaker 3: going to be a one point five degree scenario as
[15:54] Speaker 3: outlined in Paris in rbn EF net zero scenario, we
[15:58] Speaker 3: have a one point seven degree scenario. So I mean,
[16:01] Speaker 3: while the EU is late, they are still one of
[16:03] Speaker 3: the only markets that is still setting ambitious targets and
[16:08] Speaker 3: sticking to them.
[16:09] Speaker 1: And so I mean the European legislative process is famously
[16:14] Speaker 1: complicated and labyrinthine. But what has led to the EU
[16:19] Speaker 1: having it's duck so out of order that their domestic policy?
[16:24] Speaker 1: You know, is there a lack of agreement between the
[16:26] Speaker 1: member states or have they just been disorganized? What's going
[16:29] Speaker 1: on there?
[16:30] Speaker 3: So they're not disorganized, but they are not coming to
[16:34] Speaker 3: an agreement. And you know, everyone agrees that the EU
[16:38] Speaker 3: wants to maintain industrial competition and keep consumer prices low
[16:42] Speaker 3: while achieving these ambitious climate targets. But how we get
[16:46] Speaker 3: there is where they disagree. So the biggest point of
[16:50] Speaker 3: contention about setting the ninety percent target is the use
[16:53] Speaker 3: of international carbon credits under Article six, and the proposal
[16:57] Speaker 3: as it stands now allows member states to meet their
[17:01] Speaker 3: targets using international carbon credits up to three percent of
[17:05] Speaker 3: their nineteen ninety levels are mission levels. But some believe
[17:09] Speaker 3: that this is too flexible or believe that it's not
[17:12] Speaker 3: flexible enough. And then there's the questions about the actual
[17:15] Speaker 3: credits and the integrity of the credits, the standards of
[17:18] Speaker 3: the credits. And you know that's actually going to be
[17:20] Speaker 3: a big topic at COP this year is Article six
[17:24] Speaker 3: and how it works in practice with treating carbon credits
[17:27] Speaker 3: from country to country, and that you will also be
[17:30] Speaker 3: able to speak more about where Article six stands and
[17:33] Speaker 3: what we expect from that at COP.
[17:35] Speaker 2: I think one of the issues that we've had is
[17:38] Speaker 2: that over the last eighteen months or so at the
[17:41] Speaker 2: domestic level in the EU, we've seen in certain member
[17:44] Speaker 2: states a political shift to the right. So when we
[17:47] Speaker 2: had the European Parliament elections last year, so that's where
[17:51] Speaker 2: systems can vote directly for their members of parliament. We
[17:54] Speaker 2: saw some of the more climate conservative parties really increase
[17:59] Speaker 2: their share or seats. So the European Parliament has tended
[18:03] Speaker 2: to be greener than the Council of the EU, which
[18:06] Speaker 2: is represented directly by a member state governments itself. So
[18:10] Speaker 2: because both of these entities have slightly moved to the right,
[18:13] Speaker 2: it means that, as Brynce said, they've kind of refocused
[18:17] Speaker 2: on energy security industrial competitiveness. EU hasn't suddenly scrapped its
[18:21] Speaker 2: net zero target, but as Brynn said, how it gets
[18:25] Speaker 2: there and how fast it gets there is more of
[18:27] Speaker 2: a topic for debate. So hence why a concession to
[18:31] Speaker 2: some of the less ambitious EU member state. The EU
[18:34] Speaker 2: has kind of somewhat changed its position on the use
[18:37] Speaker 2: of carbon credits, because previously it said, no, we won't
[18:40] Speaker 2: use carbon credits to achieve our missions targets, but here
[18:44] Speaker 2: the proposal that was released in July suggested that they will.
[18:48] Speaker 2: But interestingly, it's for a really really small amount, so
[18:51] Speaker 2: in practice it will make little difference. But it was
[18:54] Speaker 2: more of a kind of political token gesture to get
[18:56] Speaker 2: some of the other member states on side.
[19:00] Speaker 1: I mean, isn't once once the country has set the
[19:02] Speaker 1: long term objective of net zero by twenty fifty, which
[19:05] Speaker 1: is the case for the European Union and most of
[19:08] Speaker 1: the developed world, you know, twenty sixty or twenty seventy
[19:10] Speaker 1: for developing countries. Isn't the setting of interium targets then
[19:14] Speaker 1: pretty straightforward? Don't you just draw a line from here
[19:18] Speaker 1: to twenty fifty or your terminal point, and then there
[19:21] Speaker 1: you go, there's the number for all the points in between.
[19:24] Speaker 1: Is it not that simple?
[19:26] Speaker 3: Yeah? Unfortunately it's not that simple. And the EU is
[19:30] Speaker 3: really navigating these competing priorities of maintaining competition and energy
[19:34] Speaker 3: security while reaching the target. So it's all about how
[19:38] Speaker 3: how do we get to these targets without spiking consumer prices,
[19:43] Speaker 3: without decreasing the industrial competitiveness, without these other really important
[19:48] Speaker 3: priorities in the EU.
[19:50] Speaker 1: And so you know the other most important player in
[19:53] Speaker 1: the cop negotiations, well the two I would say at
[19:56] Speaker 1: China and India. So where are they at with their.
[20:01] Speaker 2: So China has also not yet submitted its NDC, and
[20:04] Speaker 2: I think one of the reasons why this could be
[20:07] Speaker 2: the case for China, but also for other parties, and
[20:09] Speaker 2: why they've really kind of lagged behind on submissions is
[20:12] Speaker 2: because of this driver of peer pressure. So governments have
[20:15] Speaker 2: been waiting to see what their peers have been announcing
[20:18] Speaker 2: and then deciding that on their own ambition. Now, in
[20:20] Speaker 2: the case of China, at New York Climate Week in September,
[20:25] Speaker 2: President did announce their twenty thirty five emissions target, which
[20:29] Speaker 2: is really the thing that most people care about in
[20:32] Speaker 2: this new round of NDCs. On an absolute level, it
[20:35] Speaker 2: was modest, would be a kind of British plight way
[20:38] Speaker 2: of putting it. It would not be in line with
[20:42] Speaker 2: both our BNFS net zero scenario or indeed are kind
[20:45] Speaker 2: of economics driven base case. The economic transition scenario, however,
[20:50] Speaker 2: was it was significant in that it was the first
[20:53] Speaker 2: of China's missions targets to cover first of all greenhouse gases.
[20:57] Speaker 2: Previously it's just been CO two and they all so
[21:00] Speaker 2: is based on absolute volume of missions. Now this may
[21:03] Speaker 2: seem like a kind of technicality, but previously China and
[21:08] Speaker 2: indeed still India and other emerging markets, they've based their
[21:11] Speaker 2: emissions targets on emissions per unit of GDP or some
[21:15] Speaker 2: either mechanism that gives them some kind of leeway where
[21:18] Speaker 2: they can still grow their economies but meet their targets
[21:22] Speaker 2: while increasing emissions. However, by committing to a reduction absolute
[21:27] Speaker 2: volumes of emissions, it kind of means that it's more
[21:30] Speaker 2: certain that China will actually achieve that target. And this
[21:34] Speaker 2: is this move towards an absolute target has been something
[21:37] Speaker 2: that has been pushed for by developed economies like the
[21:41] Speaker 2: EU and indeed previously the US, So we see it
[21:44] Speaker 2: as a politically significant shift that could indeed kind of
[21:49] Speaker 2: strengthen relations between the EU and China.
[21:52] Speaker 1: So, China hasn't formally submitted the NBC, but President she
[21:55] Speaker 1: did announce it in the UN General Assembly, so it's
[21:59] Speaker 1: known what it will be. It is the first time
[22:01] Speaker 1: that China has pledged an absolute reduction and an acknowledgement
[22:04] Speaker 1: really the emissions NOBIL peak. So that does seem like
[22:07] Speaker 1: a pretty important progression from the world's largest emitter. How
[22:11] Speaker 1: about India. Has India put forward in NDC and what
[22:14] Speaker 1: are they likely to do so?
[22:16] Speaker 2: No, India has not yet issued a new NDC. It
[22:20] Speaker 2: seems likely that it will do so either before or
[22:23] Speaker 2: during COP thirty. We don't know much about the kind
[22:26] Speaker 2: of level of ambition, but we do know that it's
[22:29] Speaker 2: twenty thirty emissions targets, which was in its previous NDC,
[22:33] Speaker 2: is not in line with BENF net zero scenario. It
[22:37] Speaker 2: also is one of the targets that's based on emission's intensity,
[22:41] Speaker 2: so it would be also a significant shift if it
[22:44] Speaker 2: moved to an absolute emissions target. It seems unlikely though,
[22:47] Speaker 2: that India is going to ratchet up its ambitions so
[22:50] Speaker 2: much that thirty thirty five if target is NETDA aligned.
[22:54] Speaker 1: So the signs so far I'm looking great for a
[22:58] Speaker 1: real increase in an ambition compared to what we currently have.
[23:02] Speaker 1: So I think that the climate math sort of comes
[23:05] Speaker 1: out at current pledges in dcs that were submitted in
[23:09] Speaker 1: previous COPS put the world on track for about two
[23:12] Speaker 1: point seven degrees of warming. If I'm not mistaken, Yeah,
[23:16] Speaker 1: I would agree with that. However, I do think it's
[23:18] Speaker 1: significant that China has submitted an absolute target and so
[23:22] Speaker 1: has Indonesia. So these two economies who before had not
[23:26] Speaker 1: submitted absolute targets are now switching to absolute and that
[23:30] Speaker 1: is certainly the gold standard of type of target over
[23:35] Speaker 1: the emissions intensity and the baseline scenario.
[23:37] Speaker 2: And there have been major economies who have announced targets
[23:41] Speaker 2: that are either more ambitious or in line with our
[23:44] Speaker 2: net zero scenario, including your own Australia, COVID, but also
[23:48] Speaker 2: this year's hosts Brazil and the UK. So it's not
[23:51] Speaker 2: all doom and glue.
[23:52] Speaker 3: Yeah, Brazil in the UK were actually more ambitious than
[23:55] Speaker 3: our net zero scenario for energy emissions, and Japan Canada
[24:00] Speaker 3: are not more ambitious than net zero, but they are
[24:04] Speaker 3: more ambitious than the base case or economics alone would dictate.
[24:09] Speaker 3: And then we've got Australia, and so Australia is in
[24:12] Speaker 3: line with our net zero scenario. So we do have
[24:14] Speaker 3: several economies that are either more ambitious or in line
[24:17] Speaker 3: with our net zero scenario. And then a handful that
[24:19] Speaker 3: are also that are not going to be on a
[24:21] Speaker 3: net zero trajectory, but are still more ambitious than economics
[24:25] Speaker 3: alone would dictate. And these are just their targets. They
[24:29] Speaker 3: are still going to need a lot of financing and
[24:32] Speaker 3: policy to achieve those targets.
[24:35] Speaker 1: So, Vicki Brinn, what are our expectations for the cop
[24:39] Speaker 1: what do we think will be achieved?
[24:41] Speaker 3: So while we said, you know, only a third of
[24:44] Speaker 3: economies have made their NDC submissions before the conference. We
[24:48] Speaker 3: actually do expect that the remaining major economies will make
[24:53] Speaker 3: their submissions by the end of the conference, so a
[24:56] Speaker 3: lot of those we expect to be made at COP. However,
[24:59] Speaker 3: we i don't expect the majority of global emissions to
[25:03] Speaker 3: be covered by a net zero aligned target unfortunately.
[25:07] Speaker 2: So in terms of the other kind of key topics
[25:10] Speaker 2: at COP this year, the Brazil presidency has been really
[25:14] Speaker 2: pushing for more of these concrete action pledges. So a
[25:18] Speaker 2: few years ago we had a pledge that a lot
[25:21] Speaker 2: of countries signed up to triple renewables capacity by twenty
[25:25] Speaker 2: thirty and to transition away from fossil fuels. Now, these pledges,
[25:29] Speaker 2: for various reasons, were not included in the agreement from
[25:32] Speaker 2: last year's COP, but we expect them to be resuscitated
[25:35] Speaker 2: this year. We are more confident that the kind of
[25:39] Speaker 2: COP thirty agreement could include that renewables pledge, but the
[25:42] Speaker 2: fossil fueld one was highly contentious and remain so, so
[25:46] Speaker 2: we're less confident about that. Last year, one of the
[25:49] Speaker 2: key achievements in Baku was these new climate finance targets.
[25:54] Speaker 2: Would expect that if we deem COP thirty to have
[25:57] Speaker 2: made concrete progress in this area that they'd actually agree
[26:00] Speaker 2: on a roadmap with specific actions for that. But we
[26:03] Speaker 2: are not that confident about that. But one of the
[26:05] Speaker 2: areas that we are more confident about, one reason being
[26:08] Speaker 2: that this is a huge priority for Brazil, is around
[26:11] Speaker 2: carbon markets. So we are fairly confident that they could
[26:15] Speaker 2: make at least more of the steps towards agreeing actual
[26:19] Speaker 2: standards for eligible project activities and take us one step further.
[26:24] Speaker 2: Although it has been ten years and I'm making now
[26:27] Speaker 2: towards launching these Article six as their own carbon markets.
[26:31] Speaker 2: But I think one thing that I wanted therefore to
[26:33] Speaker 2: flag though about all of this discussion about NDCs is
[26:37] Speaker 2: that in some respects, that's the easy work done. It's
[26:41] Speaker 2: relatively easy to announce a targets. What's more difficult is
[26:44] Speaker 2: to actually implement the concrete policy support to achieve that target.
[26:49] Speaker 2: And that's something that we're going to be looking at
[26:52] Speaker 2: in the report that we're publishing on the third of
[26:55] Speaker 2: November called our G twenty Policy Scoreboard, which is our
[26:58] Speaker 2: annual assessment of the G twenty economies based on and
[27:02] Speaker 2: how much and how good their low carbon support is.
[27:06] Speaker 1: Just to pick up on that point about the tripling
[27:08] Speaker 1: renewables pledge in the fossil fuel phase out pledges, which
[27:12] Speaker 1: were all made in the UAE Consensus a couple of
[27:14] Speaker 1: years ago. Do the achievements of previous cops need to
[27:17] Speaker 1: be restated in every subsequent COP or once they've been
[27:21] Speaker 1: agreed that they already set.
[27:24] Speaker 2: Well, you would think so that once they've agreed something
[27:27] Speaker 2: that that didn't need to be reiterated. But every COP agreement,
[27:31] Speaker 2: to some extent, starts are fresh with what pledges is
[27:35] Speaker 2: going to be made. As with all types of policies,
[27:38] Speaker 2: the devil is in the detail, so the use of
[27:40] Speaker 2: a particular verb can change the nuance of their agreement.
[27:44] Speaker 2: So each year it does seem to be that they
[27:46] Speaker 2: have somewhat of the same discussion around how they're going
[27:50] Speaker 2: to phrase the commitments around say the Paris Agreement, some
[27:54] Speaker 2: of them all kind of detailed commitments. So therefore it
[27:57] Speaker 2: is quite a sign if a copper agreement does not
[28:01] Speaker 2: reiterate the same pledge made in the previous year, so.
[28:04] Speaker 1: Yet more complexity to the devilish detail and ourkaneness of
[28:09] Speaker 1: the negotiation of a COP text. They're quite a site
[28:13] Speaker 1: to behold the working text. So how much does the
[28:18] Speaker 1: US's absence really hang over this COP and do we
[28:21] Speaker 1: think that they're actually going to attend. Are they going
[28:24] Speaker 1: to send a unofficial delegation to at least observe the
[28:28] Speaker 1: COP or try and exert some background influence.
[28:31] Speaker 2: Well, a couple of things. So, first of all, Trump
[28:34] Speaker 2: did indeed sign that executive order to exit the Paris
[28:36] Speaker 2: Agreement in January. That's changed takes a year to take effect,
[28:41] Speaker 2: So in theory, the US is eligible to still participate
[28:45] Speaker 2: in the Paris Agreement specific negotiations, but the US is
[28:49] Speaker 2: not exited from the Framework Convention on Climate Change, so
[28:52] Speaker 2: it is still allowed to attend the COP negotiations. As
[28:57] Speaker 2: you've just mentioned, it's highly complex process, so there are
[29:00] Speaker 2: multiple negotiating streams going on at the same time. Though
[29:03] Speaker 2: the US can still take active part in those, It's
[29:07] Speaker 2: hard to know whether it will be more of a
[29:09] Speaker 2: statement in the eyes of the Trump administration to not
[29:13] Speaker 2: attend at all, or they will attend and potentially try
[29:18] Speaker 2: to leverage their influence in favor of the current political
[29:22] Speaker 2: positions of the federal government.
[29:25] Speaker 1: So on our final question, a very important one for
[29:28] Speaker 1: me personally, COP thirty one who is going to be
[29:31] Speaker 1: the host? Is Australia going to finally achieve that presidency
[29:35] Speaker 1: or do you think that the Turkey will will hold
[29:39] Speaker 1: out and manage to fulfill their ambition of hosting one
[29:43] Speaker 1: of these major events.
[29:44] Speaker 2: Yes, I can see Cobert, you might have vested interest. Honestly,
[29:47] Speaker 2: it's hard to tell at this point. I think that
[29:51] Speaker 2: it could indeed be a question of seeing how COP
[29:54] Speaker 2: thirty goes and to what extent we have seen Australia
[29:58] Speaker 2: increase its ambition it's NDC, so perhaps it is hoping
[30:03] Speaker 2: that that will increase its credibility and help the decision
[30:07] Speaker 2: goes in its favor.
[30:08] Speaker 1: Well, fingers crossed, I'll show my bias on that regard.
[30:12] Speaker 1: I very much hope that Australia triumphs in its bid
[30:15] Speaker 1: to host COP thirty one. It will be much easier
[30:17] Speaker 1: for me to attend in Adelaide from Sydney than it
[30:19] Speaker 1: would be to trek all the way to blame or
[30:22] Speaker 1: any of the other cops. Vicky Brinn thank you very
[30:25] Speaker 1: much for their conversation and we look forward to all
[30:28] Speaker 1: of the analysis that you will release to help navigate
[30:32] Speaker 1: the soup of complexity and drama, both before and after.
[30:36] Speaker 3: Thank you so much for having us GOBAD, Thank you, Cobert.
[30:48] Speaker 1: Today's episode of Switched On was produced by Cam Gray
[30:51] Speaker 1: with production assistance from Kamala Shelling.
[30:54] Speaker 2: Bloomberg EF is a service provided by Bloomberg Finance LP
[30:57] Speaker 2: and its affiliates.
[30:58] Speaker 1: This recording does not constitute, nor should it be construed,
[31:01] Speaker 1: as investment advice, investment recommendations, or a recommendation as to
[31:05] Speaker 1: an investment or other strategy. Bloomberg ANNIAF should not be
[31:07] Speaker 1: considered as information sufficient upon which to base an investment decision.
[31:11] Speaker 2: Neither Bloomberg Finance LP nor any of its affiliates makes
[31:14] Speaker 2: any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness
[31:18] Speaker 2: of the information contained in this recording, and
[31:20] Speaker 3: Any liability as a result of this recording is expressly
[31:23] Speaker 3: disclaimed

Shows are listed from Apple Podcasts' charts and directory, and Podcast Index where it is used. Every show and episode belongs to its publisher and plays from the publisher's own feed; this site hosts none of them.