# Labor’s One Nation problem

An episode of [7am](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1461999702), 1 Sep 2026, 17 min.

Audio: https://p.podderapp.com/2544644999/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/2fb3740d-3436-44af-8cc0-a91900716aa5/62723a1f-3e96-4fc4-882c-b25e0181da4d/3e9c95b2-7770-438f-b134-b4b8006d8460/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=70f29d90-2a63-48aa-bf8f-b25e0181da70

One Nation has declared that “politics has changed” after snatching a formerly safe Labor seat in a surprise by-election victory in WA over the weekend. Until now, it had been the Coalition feeling the effects of the orange wave, but now Labor officially has a Pauline problem of its own. So what does this mean for the government, and the country? Today, WA political reporter for Business News, Gary Adshead on how One Nation won over WA voters and whether it can replicate that victory elsewhere. If you enjoy 7am, the best way you can support us is by making a contribution at 7ampodcast.com.au/support. Socials: Stay in touch with us on Instagram Guest: Political reporter for Business News, Gary Adshead Photo: AAP Image/Bianca De Marchi See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:01] Speaker 1: I'm Ruby Jones, and you're listening to 7am. One nation
[0:09] Speaker 1: has declared that politics has changed after snatching a formerly
[0:12] Speaker 1: safe Labor seat in a surprise by-election victory in WA
[0:16] Speaker 1: over the weekend. Until now, it had been the coalition
[0:19] Speaker 1: feeling the effects of the orange wave, but now Labor
[0:22] Speaker 1: officially has a Pauline problem of its own. So what
[0:25] Speaker 1: does this mean for the government and the country? Today,
[0:28] Speaker 1: WA political reporter for Business News, Gary Adshead, on how
[0:32] Speaker 1: One Nation won over WA voters and whether it can
[0:35] Speaker 1: replicate that victory elsewhere. It's Wednesday, September 2. So, Gary,
[0:49] Speaker 1: Labor has held this seat, Secret Harbour, which is in
[0:52] Speaker 1: the outer suburbs of Perth for decades now. Then last Saturday,
[0:57] Speaker 1: One Nation walked in and beat them pretty comfortably. How
[1:01] Speaker 1: surprising was that result?
[1:03] Speaker 2: Very, in terms of the size of it.
[1:05] Speaker 3: Look, I think we've got to start at 2025, the
[1:07] Speaker 3: state election.
[1:08] Speaker 2: Labor won 61.5% of.
[1:11] Speaker 3: The vote on two-party preferred basis. So the nearest rival
[1:15] Speaker 3: at that point was the Liberals, and they had 38.5%
[1:17] Speaker 3: two-party preferred. Even with the massive Labor win, there was
[1:24] Speaker 3: still almost a 20% swing against Labor. And that went
[1:29] Speaker 3: towards the Liberals. So that's to give you an idea.
[1:32] Speaker 2: 18 months, about 18 months.
[1:34] Speaker 3: And then you look at what happened on the weekend,
[1:36] Speaker 3: and One Nation emerged with 57% of the vote on
[1:41] Speaker 3: a two-party preferred basis.
[1:43] Speaker 2: And that compared to Labor's 43%.
[1:44] Speaker 3: The switch could not have been any more dramatic in
[1:48] Speaker 3: the space of 18 months.
[1:50] Speaker 4: Extraordinary.
[1:50] Speaker 2: They came with the big Labor machine.
[1:53] Speaker 5: They came with their smear tactics.
[1:56] Speaker 2: They came with their hecklers on the polling booths.
[1:59] Speaker 5: And we marched right through it.
[2:04] Speaker 1: Well, let's talk a bit about Labor's candidate for the election,
[2:07] Speaker 1: Georgia Tree. So she's a former Labor staffer and lobbyist.
[2:12] Speaker 1: Tell me a bit more about her and why she
[2:14] Speaker 1: was chosen, what Labor thought she was going to bring.
[2:17] Speaker 3: She's a long-time Labor Party member. had more recently taken
[2:20] Speaker 3: a job with Woodside.
[2:22] Speaker 4: So I'm Georgia Tree. I'm Labor's candidate for Secret Harbour.
[2:26] Speaker 4: I grew up in Wombra. I went to Wombra Community
[2:28] Speaker 4: High School. I've lived or worked in this community my
[2:31] Speaker 4: whole life.
[2:32] Speaker 3: And she was seen as a local candidate because of
[2:37] Speaker 3: her history there.
[2:38] Speaker 2: There's no doubt about that.
[2:40] Speaker 3: That's how she was sold to the electorate until, of course,
[2:44] Speaker 3: the point where that question gets asked, are you living
[2:48] Speaker 3: in the electorate?
[2:49] Speaker 2: Oh, actually, no, I'm living in the city.
[2:51] Speaker 4: Like many people, I moved to the city for work,
[2:54] Speaker 4: but that doesn't mean that I don't know the needs
[2:57] Speaker 4: of this community or don't feel the needs of this
[2:59] Speaker 4: community deeply.
[3:01] Speaker 3: We all know that politicians don't always live in their electorates,
[3:04] Speaker 3: but what seemed to happen this time around was that
[3:08] Speaker 3: there was a disdain for the fact that she was
[3:12] Speaker 3: living in the leafy inner suburbs of Perth rather.
[3:16] Speaker 2: Than down there, with the people of Secret Harbour.
[3:20] Speaker 3: That became a sticking point right from the get-go.
[3:23] Speaker 1: Tell me a little more about what people in the
[3:25] Speaker 1: electorate said to you about Georgia Tree in the lead-up
[3:28] Speaker 1: to the election. What were their thoughts on her as
[3:31] Speaker 1: a candidate and on Labor more generally?
[3:34] Speaker 2: Well, on Labor, there was a problem.
[3:37] Speaker 3: And the unusual thing, again, in this by-election, and I
[3:40] Speaker 3: think that's why it's getting a fair bit of analysis
[3:42] Speaker 3: on the East Coast, is that usually a by-election election
[3:47] Speaker 3: in a place like Western Australia's run on sort of state.
[3:50] Speaker 2: Issues, okay?
[3:52] Speaker 3: But there absolutely seems to be some protest vote towards Labor.
[3:57] Speaker 3: So Georgia Tree was the Labor candidate and she seemed
[4:01] Speaker 3: to be wearing the protest vote that was there for,
[4:03] Speaker 3: dare I say it, the federal Labor government, Anthony Albanese.
[4:09] Speaker 2: That was on the lips of a lot of people
[4:11] Speaker 2: who were voting in Secret Harbour.
[4:13] Speaker 3: This was an opportunity to send a message to Canberra
[4:17] Speaker 3: And the One Nation brand was loud and it was everywhere.
[4:21] Speaker 1: Yeah, the way that things unfolded during that campaign seemed
[4:24] Speaker 1: to make things worse for her, not better. There were
[4:27] Speaker 1: events where she was standing beside the Premier, Roger Cook,
[4:30] Speaker 1: but she wasn't allowed to answer questions. Tell me a
[4:33] Speaker 1: bit more about what happened.
[4:35] Speaker 3: That was one of the most bizarre things I've ever seen.
[4:37] Speaker 3: So you go out there to the electorate on a Sunday.
[4:41] Speaker 3: You are the government.
[4:42] Speaker 2: You have the money.
[4:42] Speaker 3: You certainly have the money in Western Australians. You've been
[4:46] Speaker 3: promising to do this for years. You come out with
[4:48] Speaker 3: your big flagship announcement. We're going to build the train station.
[4:52] Speaker 1: We know the suburbs around Karnup are growing and they're
[4:55] Speaker 1: growing quickly.
[4:57] Speaker 5: The area is set to grow more with a Karnup
[4:59] Speaker 5: district plan.
[5:00] Speaker 1: We'll see 20,000 homes built.
[5:03] Speaker 3: And what happens when it comes to the reporter, one
[5:06] Speaker 3: reporter saying casually, can we just ask Georgia some questions, please?
[5:10] Speaker 2: And the Premier says, no, we don't have time. And
[5:13] Speaker 2: they walk off.
[5:14] Speaker 4: Thanks very much, everyone.
[5:25] Speaker 2: Now, what was that all about? No one has owned
[5:28] Speaker 2: up to it.
[5:29] Speaker 3: No one has put their hand up and said, that
[5:31] Speaker 3: was my decision to get away from there quickly because
[5:34] Speaker 3: we had to go to another commitment as opposed to
[5:37] Speaker 3: a decision of the strategy, whether they sat around before
[5:40] Speaker 3: and said, let's make this $ 156 million announcement and then
[5:44] Speaker 3: not let the candidate take any credit for it.
[5:47] Speaker 2: It was bizarre.
[5:48] Speaker 3: It was the strangest thing that I'd seen certainly covering
[5:51] Speaker 3: elections for a while.
[5:53] Speaker 4: Okay.
[5:54] Speaker 1: And so while Labor was struggling, what was One Nation
[5:57] Speaker 1: doing right? Why was Luke Hurtigen connecting with voters?
[6:02] Speaker 2: I think he had a big orange hat on his head.
[6:05] Speaker 3: And I think that they're is a movement now that
[6:08] Speaker 3: is quite clearly towards One Nation because of the messaging
[6:12] Speaker 3: that comes out of Pauline Hanson around migration.
[6:15] Speaker 2: Net zero, et cetera. So what did Luke Hurtigen do?
[6:18] Speaker 3: He turned up, he spoke to punters, he spoke at
[6:23] Speaker 3: a sort of a level that they can kind of get.
[6:25] Speaker 3: It was a brand and it seemed to sweep up
[6:28] Speaker 3: people in its way.
[6:30] Speaker 2: It just worked.
[6:32] Speaker 3: None of these MPs are safe from the orange tsunami.
[6:38] Speaker 3: And it might be because of the electorate, might be
[6:41] Speaker 3: because of the makeup of the electorate, but it worked there.
[6:43] Speaker 2: There's nothing to say it won't work everywhere else.
[6:46] Speaker 1: And you reported some damaging material about Hertogen's past, drug use,
[6:52] Speaker 1: associations with crime figures when he was living in London.
[6:56] Speaker 1: Did any of that have an impact on how people
[6:58] Speaker 1: saw him?
[6:59] Speaker 3: So by his own admission, let's put it into context,
[7:02] Speaker 3: by his own admission, he spent time in London in
[7:04] Speaker 3: around 2016-17.
[7:06] Speaker 2: And he was blogging about.
[7:09] Speaker 3: The fact that he had a four-day-a-week cocaine binging habit
[7:13] Speaker 3: and that he was connected at that time and associating
[7:17] Speaker 3: with and hanging out with his.
[7:18] Speaker 2: Words, Albanian organised crime figures.
[7:23] Speaker 3: What I'll say is this, if that had been the
[7:25] Speaker 3: Labor candidate, it would have been on the front page
[7:29] Speaker 3: of the daily newspaper.
[7:32] Speaker 2: It was reported on our business news website.
[7:34] Speaker 3: There were questions asked by other media and it was
[7:38] Speaker 3: reported in some way, but it certainly wasn't the splash.
[7:43] Speaker 2: I reported it just.
[7:44] Speaker 3: Before Pauline Hanson arrived to do a breakfast event for
[7:48] Speaker 3: Seven West Media, the newspaper, the TV station. And The
[7:55] Speaker 3: aftermath of that was Pauline Hanson at a press conference
[7:58] Speaker 3: being asked, did you know that your candidate for One
[8:01] Speaker 3: Nation has openly admitted to being a cocaine user who
[8:04] Speaker 3: hung out with Albanian gangsters? She said no, she didn't know.
[8:08] Speaker 3: And she'll ask questions about it. Now, for me, that
[8:11] Speaker 3: was kind of the story of the campaign, because it
[8:14] Speaker 3: just goes to show what a they're chaotic and you
[8:19] Speaker 3: don't know what's in the background of some of their candidates.
[8:21] Speaker 2: When Pauline Hanson said.
[8:22] Speaker 3: She had no idea about his background in that regard,
[8:25] Speaker 3: I thought that might have become more of an issue.
[8:28] Speaker 3: It certainly did in terms of my reporting, but it
[8:31] Speaker 3: didn't get a lot of widespread traction, which is interesting.
[8:38] Speaker 1: Still to come, how worried should Labor be? Gary, for years,
[8:52] Speaker 1: One Nation has really been talked about as a threat
[8:55] Speaker 1: to the coalition, not to Labor. But this by-election, what
[8:59] Speaker 1: does that say to you about whether Labor has now
[9:02] Speaker 1: most definitely got a One Nation problem?
[9:05] Speaker 3: They've got a One Nation problem because there's a few
[9:08] Speaker 3: things to that. I mean, Labor don't forget aiming for
[9:11] Speaker 3: a fourth term here in Western Australia. And we all
[9:13] Speaker 3: know that people get tired of government, tired of seeing
[9:16] Speaker 3: the same people, tired of hearing the same messages. So
[9:18] Speaker 3: they've got that issue, trying to get a fourth term. But,
[9:22] Speaker 3: you know, this is a Labor government off the back
[9:25] Speaker 3: of Mark McGowan's popularity and the pandemic and the amount
[9:29] Speaker 3: of votes that he got through that, that have 45
[9:33] Speaker 3: members in the lower house of parliament here compared to
[9:36] Speaker 3: the Liberals and Nationals with 12.
[9:38] Speaker 2: So their majority is still enormous.
[9:41] Speaker 3: Having said that, now we watch that result on the
[9:44] Speaker 3: weekend and we think, well, around it are seats like Rockingham, Baldivis,
[9:52] Speaker 3: These are all very similar type of demographics. And even Kwanada,
[9:56] Speaker 3: which is the Premier's own seat, these seats would have
[10:00] Speaker 3: to now be in play as far as the Labor
[10:02] Speaker 3: Party's concerned. And let's say, or I'll say, I think
[10:07] Speaker 3: One Nation would be seriously thinking they could pick up
[10:10] Speaker 3: at least another seven seats in the 2029 state election
[10:14] Speaker 3: here in WA if they can maintain the momentum that
[10:17] Speaker 3: we've been seeing in WA and around the country in
[10:20] Speaker 3: relation to One Nation.
[10:22] Speaker 2: And of course, in between that, we've got a federal election,
[10:24] Speaker 2: which will tell us even more of the story.
[10:26] Speaker 1: Yeah, let's talk a little about that, because this seat,
[10:29] Speaker 1: Sacred Harbour, it actually forms part of Andrew Hastie, his
[10:32] Speaker 1: federal electorate. How worried do you think he is?
[10:35] Speaker 3: Well, he's been worried. I mean, he's not making any
[10:38] Speaker 3: secret about being worried. He's the one who's saying, we
[10:42] Speaker 3: need to fight One Nation.
[10:44] Speaker 5: We've got to fight for every single vote. And whenever
[10:47] Speaker 5: I enter a contest, I want to win. And I
[10:49] Speaker 5: think that should be our message in this by-election.
[10:53] Speaker 3: The Liberal Party in WA never said a bad thing
[10:58] Speaker 3: about One Nation. They never challenged them. They ran against them, sure.
[11:02] Speaker 3: And they had a good candidate, a naval submariner with
[11:05] Speaker 3: a heck of a track record in the military, family man.
[11:09] Speaker 3: He was a very good candidate. But they took it
[11:13] Speaker 3: to Labor every day. but they never grounded on One
[11:17] Speaker 3: Nation at all. It was like a deliberate decision. And
[11:21] Speaker 3: before the actual secret harbour by-election, the Liberal leader in
[11:25] Speaker 3: this city, Basil Zempler, said... So my approach has very
[11:28] Speaker 3: much been, see One Nation's rise as an opportunity, not
[11:33] Speaker 3: a threat. So by saying that, it was like, well,
[11:36] Speaker 3: if they can beat Labor, One Nation, great, that's one
[11:38] Speaker 3: less seat that Labor has. That was the kind of mindset.
[11:42] Speaker 3: Andrew Hastie has been outspoken about that. He's not happy
[11:44] Speaker 3: about it. He thinks that you show that sort of
[11:47] Speaker 3: weakness and you're going to get pummeled.
[11:49] Speaker 5: I don't accept this idea that a win for One
[11:51] Speaker 5: Nation is a win for the Liberal Party.
[11:53] Speaker 2: We're fighting for our lives.
[11:54] Speaker 3: In the end, the Liberal Party only got 17% of
[11:58] Speaker 3: the primary vote on Saturday.
[12:00] Speaker 2: That's not good enough.
[12:02] Speaker 3: In 2025, the swing was on to the Liberal Party
[12:05] Speaker 3: in Secret Harbour and they had 25% of the primary.
[12:09] Speaker 3: So they dropped and maybe it's because You know, they
[12:12] Speaker 3: were bystanders as opposed to combatants during that by-election.
[12:17] Speaker 1: Well, let's stay with the federal picture because WA has
[12:20] Speaker 1: been crucial to Labor federally. It helped deliver Anthony Albanese
[12:24] Speaker 1: government in 2022. It strengthened Labor again in 2025. So
[12:30] Speaker 1: how seriously do you think federal Labor should be looking
[12:33] Speaker 1: at what just happened in Secret Harbour?
[12:35] Speaker 3: Very, because, you know, a lot of the messaging down
[12:39] Speaker 3: there was against the federal government. this was an opportunity
[12:44] Speaker 3: that now One Nation supporters in Western Australia saw to send.
[12:47] Speaker 2: A message to Canberra.
[12:49] Speaker 3: So I would say that Anthony Albanese would be very
[12:52] Speaker 3: conscious of the mood and that there might be a
[12:55] Speaker 3: mood to punish for whatever reason his government. He has
[13:00] Speaker 3: come over to Western Australia a week before and make
[13:03] Speaker 3: sure that the GST deal that we savour so.
[13:06] Speaker 2: Much is being kept in place.
[13:07] Speaker 3: So that's one thing that he's drawn a line under,
[13:11] Speaker 3: that he won't cut WA out of any of its
[13:13] Speaker 3: GST share. But notably, he didn't go to the seat
[13:17] Speaker 3: of Secret Harbour either. He didn't go on a visit
[13:20] Speaker 3: down there. He said, hey, it was time, and B,
[13:22] Speaker 3: he doesn't usually go to state by-elections. But maybe, you know,
[13:26] Speaker 3: in his own mind, he knew it wouldn't have helped
[13:29] Speaker 3: at all if he had, so. Yeah, no, it's a
[13:31] Speaker 3: serious issue now for federal Labor as well, as we
[13:35] Speaker 3: see this play out.
[13:36] Speaker 1: You do often see by-elections go against the government, though.
[13:38] Speaker 1: It's kind of a safe way for people to protest
[13:42] Speaker 1: a government without actually making a change. It's a way
[13:46] Speaker 1: to send a message. I suppose this is proof, though,
[13:49] Speaker 1: that for One Nation, it's not just the polls. They
[13:52] Speaker 1: do have genuine electoral growth. This is the first, correct
[13:56] Speaker 1: me if I'm wrong, the first lower House WA seat
[13:58] Speaker 1: for the party.
[13:59] Speaker 3: It is, yes.
[14:00] Speaker 1: Yeah, it's the first time since 1998 that One Nation
[14:02] Speaker 1: has taken a Labor seat. So tell me what it
[14:05] Speaker 1: says to you about One Nation's increasing influence and power
[14:10] Speaker 1: and its projections as we kind of look to the
[14:13] Speaker 1: federal election in a year and a half, two years' time.
[14:16] Speaker 3: I think it just says that they don't have to
[14:19] Speaker 3: go into an election campaign with policies per se.
[14:23] Speaker 2: They just have to have the brand and the brand.
[14:26] Speaker 3: And we've seen it in other countries.
[14:28] Speaker 2: You know, that brand is just there.
[14:30] Speaker 3: And there's a lot of things that One Nation have
[14:34] Speaker 3: done in terms of their voting in the federal parliament
[14:37] Speaker 3: that if people really sat back and looked at that,
[14:40] Speaker 3: they should be horrified in terms.
[14:42] Speaker 2: Of what they've not supported.
[14:44] Speaker 3: But you've now got a political party that has financial backing.
[14:49] Speaker 3: You know, the Gina Reinhart factor is absolutely there. You've
[14:54] Speaker 3: got a party that's showing ascendancy, so therefore others are
[14:57] Speaker 3: jumping on it. Others that do have offerings in terms
[15:00] Speaker 3: of strategy that have perhaps offered some expertise around policy settings.
[15:07] Speaker 2: So you've got this kind of, what started as just.
[15:10] Speaker 3: That party of grievance, you know, angry about this, angry
[15:13] Speaker 3: about that, that's not good enough, you're hopeless, is sort
[15:16] Speaker 3: of starting to develop into a different style of party.
[15:19] Speaker 2: And down there at Secret Harbour, it was obvious.
[15:23] Speaker 3: That It was done in a smooth, largely sensible way
[15:28] Speaker 3: in terms of the campaign. It was, dare I say it,
[15:31] Speaker 3: it was a much smoother campaign than what Labor ran
[15:34] Speaker 3: in the Secret Harbour by-election, and that is saying something.
[15:38] Speaker 2: No, it sounds like it.
[15:40] Speaker 1: Well, Gary, thank you so much for your time. Pleasure.
[15:44] Speaker 3: Pleasure.
[15:54] Speaker 1: Also in the news, a second Australian missing in the
[15:57] Speaker 1: Nepal flooding disaster has been found safe in Tibet and
[16:00] Speaker 1: is being offered consular support. Around 4,000 people remain missing
[16:05] Speaker 1: across the affected areas, including at least 42 other Australians.
[16:10] Speaker 1: And former 2GB broadcaster Ray Hadley, a long-time colleague of
[16:14] Speaker 1: Alan Jones, has given evidence in Jones' criminal trial in Sydney.
[16:19] Speaker 1: Hadley told the court that a complainant known as C
[16:21] Speaker 1: told him in 2019 that Jones had put his hand
[16:24] Speaker 1: on him and kissed him. Jones is standing trial on
[16:27] Speaker 1: 22 counts of indecent assault and two counts of sexual
[16:31] Speaker 1: touching without consent. He denies the allegations.
[16:35] Speaker 2: I'm Ruby Jones.
[16:36] Speaker 4: This is 7am.
[16:37] Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.

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