# Could Trump wage another war in the Middle East?

An episode of [7am](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1461999702), 15 Oct 2026, 19 min.

Audio: https://p.podderapp.com/2544644999/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/2fb3740d-3436-44af-8cc0-a91900716aa5/62723a1f-3e96-4fc4-882c-b25e0181da4d/6a8df3a2-b623-48de-a791-b4e400633307/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=70f29d90-2a63-48aa-bf8f-b25e0181da70

After a decade of fighting and billions spent on American weapons, Saudi Arabia still hasn’t defeated the Houthis. Instead, the Iranian-backed armed movement from Yemen, one of the Middle East’s poorest countries, is breaching Saudi defences with cheap drones and missiles, striking airports and oil infrastructure. This week, an attack on the passenger terminal at Riyads’s international airport killed 13 people and injured at least 320. With the US already fighting a war with Iran, Saudi Arabia is now pressing Donald Trump to intervene against the Houthis. But is Trump prepared to open another front in the Middle East in order to help a country in which his family has business interests? Today, Journalist Akbar Shahid Ahmed on the continued rise of the Houthis, and the pressure on Trump to intervene. If you enjoy 7am, the best way you can support us is by making a contribution at 7ampodcast.com.au/support. Socials: Stay in touch with us on Instagram Guest: Diplomatic Correspondent at The Washington Sun, Akbar Shahid Ahmed Photo: EPA/YAHYA ARHAB See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:01] Speaker 1: I'm Daniel James, and you're listening to 7am. After a
[0:09] Speaker 1: decade fighting and billions spent on American weapons, Saudi Arabia
[0:13] Speaker 1: still hasn't defeated the Houthis. Instead, the Iranian-backed armed movement
[0:18] Speaker 1: from Yemen, one of the Middle East's poorest countries, is
[0:21] Speaker 1: breaching Saudi defences with cheap drones and missiles, striking airports
[0:27] Speaker 1: and oil infrastructure. This week, an attack on the passenger
[0:30] Speaker 1: terminal at Riyadh's international airport killed 13 people and injured
[0:35] Speaker 1: hundreds more. With the US already bogged down in war
[0:38] Speaker 1: with Iran, it's a complex and delicate situation. And hanging
[0:42] Speaker 1: over it all is the question of whether Donald Trump
[0:45] Speaker 1: is prepared to wage another war to help out a
[0:47] Speaker 1: country his family has vested interests in. Today, journalist Akbar
[0:52] Speaker 1: Ahmed on the continued rise of the Houthis and the
[0:55] Speaker 1: pressure on Trump to intervene. It's Friday, October 16. Akbar,
[1:08] Speaker 1: this week, a Houthi missile struck the passenger terminal at
[1:11] Speaker 1: Riyadh's international airport, killing 13 people and injuring hundreds more.
[1:16] Speaker 1: What do we know about the attack?
[1:18] Speaker 2: It's a staggering expression of power by the Houthis from Yemen.
[1:23] Speaker 3: Saudi state television shows the orange flash of the missile
[1:26] Speaker 3: blast passengers' waiting for their flights, managed to escape from
[1:31] Speaker 3: the explosion. It's the deadliest attack on Saudi soil in
[1:34] Speaker 3: more than a decade. The Saudi authorities are calling it
[1:37] Speaker 3: a war crime.
[1:38] Speaker 2: This is an extremely important symbolic site for Saudi Arabia, right?
[1:43] Speaker 2: It's not just the airport and the capital, it is
[1:46] Speaker 2: the gateway to the Saudi Crown Prince's vision of Saudi
[1:49] Speaker 2: Arabia as an investment destination, an entertainment destination, a place
[1:53] Speaker 2: for conferences, for wrestling, for concerts. And Since that attack,
[1:59] Speaker 2: that really brutal attack, which of course killed migrant workers,
[2:04] Speaker 2: among them the Pakistani, you know, people of other nationalities too,
[2:08] Speaker 2: there's been several, now a total of around four Houthi
[2:11] Speaker 2: attacks on the capital. And it's really raising questions about
[2:15] Speaker 2: the Saudis' capability to defend sensitive sites in the kingdom.
[2:20] Speaker 3: Well, there's been an immediate response. Saudi Arabia's rulers say
[2:23] Speaker 3: the Houthis will face consequences for their attacks, which have
[2:27] Speaker 3: mounted pressure on the government with reports that some air
[2:30] Speaker 3: defences had to be relocated.
[2:32] Speaker 2: We're seeing military experts, people who've kind of advised the Saudis,
[2:37] Speaker 2: as they have been in recent years, one of the
[2:39] Speaker 2: world's largest importers of weapons, mostly from the US, saying,
[2:44] Speaker 2: how does your billions and billions in investment not shield
[2:48] Speaker 2: your main civilian airport?
[2:51] Speaker 1: Because this does appear to be a sophisticated coordinated attack,
[2:56] Speaker 1: Can you tell me more about the Houthis and how
[2:58] Speaker 1: much of Yemen they control?
[2:59] Speaker 2: Yeah, the Houthis are a militia and political group, sometimes
[3:05] Speaker 2: also referred to as Ansarullah. They control Yemen's capital of Sana'a,
[3:10] Speaker 2: sort of northern Yemen, so the most populated parts of
[3:14] Speaker 2: the country, actually.
[3:15] Speaker 4: They also control a port called Hodeidah, which is quite
[3:18] Speaker 4: strategic on the Red Sea.
[3:21] Speaker 2: But they've been engaged since around 2014 in a civil
[3:25] Speaker 2: war with Yemen's internationally recognised government, which doesn't see their
[3:29] Speaker 2: control of Sana'a as valid.
[3:31] Speaker 4: So there's been a push-pull.
[3:35] Speaker 5: Hear scenes from the battles in recent days to retake
[3:39] Speaker 5: this territory. No military precision in this desert campaign. Just
[3:46] Speaker 5: a loose alliance of pro-government fighters. some of them barefoot.
[3:53] Speaker 2: The internationally recognized government of Yemen is backed by Saudi Arabia,
[3:57] Speaker 2: has been backed previously by the United States.
[4:00] Speaker 4: And by the United Arab Emirates, some other Arab governments.
[4:03] Speaker 2: And while the Houthis have lost and gained territory in
[4:06] Speaker 2: this fight since 2014, they've really been able to solidify
[4:11] Speaker 2: and entrench their control to the extent they're no longer
[4:14] Speaker 2: just a militia or even a political movement. They've set
[4:17] Speaker 2: up their own ministries, they've set up their own governance structures,
[4:21] Speaker 2: and the Houthis, of course, receive support from Iran, Saudi
[4:24] Speaker 2: Arabia's rival in the region, a foe of Saudi ally,
[4:28] Speaker 2: the United States. It's not been a command and control relationship,
[4:33] Speaker 2: and that's really important.
[4:34] Speaker 4: People use the word proxy to talk about Iran's allies.
[4:37] Speaker 2: The Houthis are certainly not a proxy, but they have
[4:40] Speaker 2: been heavily backed increasingly by Iran. And in the context
[4:45] Speaker 2: of the US-Israeli war in Iran in the last year plus,
[4:49] Speaker 2: going back to the summer of 2025, the Houthis have
[4:52] Speaker 2: increasingly moved closer to Iran and been more aligned.
[4:58] Speaker 1: So they've survived a decade-long military operation by Saudi Arabia
[5:02] Speaker 1: that's tried to wipe them out with the support of
[5:04] Speaker 1: the US. They are still there and they seem to
[5:07] Speaker 1: have actually grown. How have they actually managed that?
[5:10] Speaker 2: They've really been able to take advantage of Iran's adapting
[5:14] Speaker 2: strategy as the US under the first Trump presidency, now
[5:18] Speaker 2: under the second Trump presidency, has both used financial pressure
[5:23] Speaker 2: on Iran and then military pressure. What Iran has done
[5:26] Speaker 2: is build alternative supply chains of the raw materials needed
[5:30] Speaker 2: for weapons, of imports from China very often, and the
[5:35] Speaker 2: Houthis are extremely integrated into that network. So What they're
[5:38] Speaker 2: using is quite cheap technology, similar to some of what
[5:41] Speaker 2: we've seen in terms of the Iranian attacks on U.S.
[5:44] Speaker 2: bases over this past year in response to the U.S.
[5:47] Speaker 4: War in Iran.
[5:49] Speaker 2: It's drones, it's cheap missiles, cheap rocket launchers that are
[5:54] Speaker 2: very often smuggled in. I'll also note that for several years,
[5:59] Speaker 2: the Saudis had a truce with the Houthis between 2022
[6:02] Speaker 2: and around the summer. So there's been a degree of
[6:05] Speaker 2: also normalizing of Houthi rule that's allowed them to entrench
[6:09] Speaker 2: their own power. And right now, their power is at
[6:12] Speaker 2: a height.
[6:13] Speaker 1: So they have strong support from Iran. What kind of
[6:16] Speaker 1: support do they have within Yemen right now?
[6:19] Speaker 4: It's very hard to know.
[6:20] Speaker 2: You know, it's hard to conduct independent polling or testimony.
[6:26] Speaker 2: And in Houthi-controlled areas, there's a real environment of fear while.
[6:34] Speaker 2: You know, many Yemenis were wary of the figures who
[6:37] Speaker 2: are now comprising that Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government. Years of
[6:42] Speaker 2: living under Houthi rule has also led to patterns of
[6:45] Speaker 2: targeting journalists. Mohammed Al-Imad is a young journalist who nearly
[6:49] Speaker 2: lost his life last November.
[6:51] Speaker 4: His car was blown up just as he got into it.
[6:54] Speaker 3: His stomach wounds.
[6:55] Speaker 2: Of targeting civil society, of the use of child soldiers, reportedly, repeatedly.
[7:00] Speaker 1: Me and three friends were kidnapped, drugged, and beaten up
[7:03] Speaker 1: A Houthi commander told us they needed us to fight
[7:05] Speaker 1: in Sana'a, but we managed to escape.
[7:08] Speaker 2: So it's hard to cast them as a popular movement.
[7:12] Speaker 2: I will say that they were able to, in the
[7:15] Speaker 2: context of the aftermath of the October 7th, 2023 attacks
[7:20] Speaker 2: inside Israel and Israel's retaliatory campaign, the Houthis have presented
[7:25] Speaker 2: themselves globally and to an extent to Yemenis as a
[7:28] Speaker 2: kind of shield against the U.S. and Israel as one
[7:32] Speaker 2: of the few forces in the region willing to actively
[7:36] Speaker 2: stand up and fight against them alongside Iran and some
[7:39] Speaker 2: other Iran-backed military and political forces. So groups like Hezbollah
[7:44] Speaker 2: in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis are very much
[7:47] Speaker 2: in alignment with that. That's helped their popular support. But
[7:51] Speaker 2: the sense that their escalations against the Saudis have also
[7:55] Speaker 2: immiserated Yemenis is very deep, too.
[7:58] Speaker 1: Yeah, so things have escalated again in terms of that conflict.
[8:01] Speaker 1: The Houthis have seized strategic territory near the Red Sea.
[8:05] Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia has launched a major counter-offensive, and we've now
[8:08] Speaker 1: seen these significant attacks on Saudi airports and oil infrastructure.
[8:12] Speaker 1: What's driving this escalation?
[8:15] Speaker 2: The escalation began after the Houthis sent several officials to
[8:21] Speaker 2: Iran in the summer of 2026.
[8:22] Speaker 4: It was a kind of clear....
[8:25] Speaker 2: Closer alignment with the Iranians, which for the Saudis crossed
[8:29] Speaker 2: the red line. For the Saudis, they felt they couldn't
[8:32] Speaker 2: deal with that sort of open embrace between the Houthis
[8:35] Speaker 2: and Iran. And they actually bombed Yemen's airport in Sana'a,
[8:41] Speaker 2: targeting Houthi leaders and Houthi ministers. So the Houthis will say, look,
[8:45] Speaker 2: this is our response to the Saudis escalating against us.
[8:49] Speaker 2: It's also the case that the Houthis had driven up
[8:52] Speaker 2: their attacks on tankers, pushing out oil and gas from
[8:56] Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia's southern coast. A lot of this, again, is
[9:00] Speaker 2: so inseparable from the US-Israeli war in Iran. Tensions between
[9:05] Speaker 2: the Houthis and Saudis have risen because the importance of
[9:08] Speaker 2: the waters around Yemen has grown as Iran has been
[9:11] Speaker 2: able to keep the Strait of Hormuz on the other
[9:13] Speaker 2: side of Saudi Arabia, the other side of the Arabian Peninsula,
[9:16] Speaker 2: mostly close to energy shipments.
[9:20] Speaker 1: So is the timing of this escalation actually a bit
[9:22] Speaker 1: of a stroke of genius from their part? Because Trump
[9:26] Speaker 1: is stuck in this unpopular war in Iran. The midterms
[9:29] Speaker 1: are approaching, so getting into another conflict would be tough
[9:32] Speaker 1: for the US right now. On the other hand, if
[9:35] Speaker 1: Trump doesn't get involved, he looks weak. So is that
[9:39] Speaker 1: part of the calculation on behalf of the Houthis?
[9:41] Speaker 4: Opportunistic, I think, is a better word.
[9:43] Speaker 2: I think it's more of a result of so many
[9:46] Speaker 2: actors in the region driving towards escalation, right? And diplomacy
[9:50] Speaker 2: and mediation just not bearing fruit. So, for instance, even
[9:53] Speaker 2: the Saudis While it's very clear that eventually they'll need
[9:56] Speaker 2: a negotiated outcome with the Houthis have decided this is
[10:00] Speaker 2: a moment that they want to try to strike a
[10:03] Speaker 2: death blow or significantly weaken the Houthis in anticipation of
[10:06] Speaker 2: a future deal. The Iranians, of course, with no success
[10:12] Speaker 2: in their diplomacy with the U.S., have continued to launch
[10:15] Speaker 2: attacks and see that as part of their strategy for survival.
[10:19] Speaker 2: And then, yes, I do think the Houthis are calculating
[10:22] Speaker 2: that President Trump is quite reluctant.
[10:25] Speaker 4: And he's made that clear, you know.
[10:26] Speaker 6: Well, they're able to defend. Look, the Saudis are good fighters.
[10:30] Speaker 6: But I think the attack was a terrible thing.
[10:33] Speaker 2: So despite the close alignment between Trump and the Saudi
[10:36] Speaker 2: crown prince, he hasn't yet been able to pull in Washington.
[10:40] Speaker 2: And I think that will remain quite hard ahead of
[10:43] Speaker 2: the midterms in early November.
[10:47] Speaker 1: Coming up. Will Trump's family ties with the Saudis see
[10:51] Speaker 1: America enter another war? Akbar, Donald Trump has already tried
[11:03] Speaker 1: bombing the Houthis into submission. Last year, the US launched
[11:07] Speaker 1: a major military campaign against them. But after spending around
[11:11] Speaker 1: about a billion dollars, Trump abruptly announced that the bombing
[11:14] Speaker 1: would stop.
[11:16] Speaker 7: We had some very good news last night. The Houthis
[11:18] Speaker 7: have announced that they are not, or they've announced to
[11:21] Speaker 7: us at least, that they don't want to fight anymore.
[11:24] Speaker 7: They just don't want to fight. And we will honor that.
[11:29] Speaker 7: And we will stop the bombings.
[11:34] Speaker 1: Why?
[11:35] Speaker 4: The argument from U.S.
[11:36] Speaker 2: Officials is that their operation then, so-called Operation Rough Rider,
[11:42] Speaker 2: was not about dislodging or dismantling the Houthis as a
[11:45] Speaker 2: force in Yemen. It was about reopening those Red Sea
[11:50] Speaker 2: shipping routes and continuing to allow oil and gas flow.
[11:53] Speaker 4: So that's the argument. I would say that having covered U.S.
[11:58] Speaker 2: Interventions in Yemen, now going back to the Obama administration,
[12:01] Speaker 2: which first started helping the Saudis bomb Yemen... It's been
[12:05] Speaker 2: a repeated narrative inside U.S. military circles and national security
[12:10] Speaker 2: circles of, if you just panel them this time, they'll listen.
[12:14] Speaker 4: Of course, the U.S.
[12:14] Speaker 2: Is now in a very different and weaker position in
[12:17] Speaker 2: the region, even though it was in 2015.
[12:20] Speaker 4: And I think when the Trump.
[12:22] Speaker 2: Administration looks at that experience of Operation Rough Rider, which
[12:25] Speaker 2: was very costly, as you say, it doesn't bode very
[12:29] Speaker 2: well for military planners, for American involvement now to help
[12:32] Speaker 2: the Saudis.
[12:33] Speaker 1: Donald Trump has been hinting that the U.S. may become
[12:36] Speaker 1: more directly involved, although, as you're saying, there's a reluctance
[12:39] Speaker 1: behind the scenes.
[12:40] Speaker 4: Have you decided whether to join the Saudi strikes on
[12:42] Speaker 4: the Houthis?
[12:43] Speaker 2: We may. We're going to look at it. How soon?
[12:44] Speaker 6: We just found out about the recent attack, so we'll
[12:48] Speaker 6: make a decision.
[12:49] Speaker 4: We move very quickly. The U.S.
[12:51] Speaker 1: Is already playing a significant role in Saudi Arabia's military
[12:54] Speaker 1: campaign against the Houthis.
[12:56] Speaker 4: You've reported on their assistance.
[12:58] Speaker 1: What exactly is America contributing?
[13:00] Speaker 2: Yeah, as with so many countries, Wars. This is an
[13:05] Speaker 2: undeclared war already that the U.S. is quite implicated in.
[13:08] Speaker 4: The U.S.
[13:09] Speaker 2: Has dispatched over 100 personnel to Saudi Arabia who are
[13:13] Speaker 2: involved in really sensitive matters like choosing targets to strike.
[13:17] Speaker 2: They're involved in aerial refueling for Saudi defense. And so,
[13:22] Speaker 2: by the way, are Britain and France and increasingly Turkey
[13:25] Speaker 2: and Pakistan.
[13:26] Speaker 4: So this is setting the stage for a bigger conflict.
[13:29] Speaker 2: And the U.S., of course, has this unprecedented military buildup
[13:33] Speaker 2: that President Trump has directed generally in the region. So
[13:36] Speaker 2: if we think again about actors looking at this opportunistically,
[13:40] Speaker 2: there's also a factor from the Saudi calculus of.
[13:43] Speaker 4: We don't know when we're going to get a U.S.
[13:45] Speaker 2: Military buildup, deployment of aircraft carriers and troops to the
[13:48] Speaker 2: region like this again.
[13:50] Speaker 4: Perhaps this is our best chance to draw the U.S. in.
[13:54] Speaker 4: It's an interesting echo.
[13:55] Speaker 2: Of actually how Israel made its calculations when it decided
[13:59] Speaker 2: to go to war in Iran, something that had aimed
[14:02] Speaker 2: to do with US support for many years, you're seeing
[14:04] Speaker 2: the Saudis in some cases draw a similar lesson.
[14:07] Speaker 1: Trump has a particularly close relationship with Saudi Crown Prince
[14:12] Speaker 1: Mohammed bin Salman. The Saudis have enormous financial relationships with
[14:16] Speaker 1: Trump and his family. So if Trump is reluctant to
[14:19] Speaker 1: get dragged into another war with the Houthis, how much
[14:23] Speaker 1: pressure can Saudi Arabia actually put on him to intervene?
[14:26] Speaker 2: You know, I've been talking to White House officials and
[14:29] Speaker 2: people close to President Trump's circle to unpack this question.
[14:33] Speaker 2: And as with so many of the president's dealings, right,
[14:38] Speaker 2: it's not the case that he necessarily sees a quid
[14:41] Speaker 2: pro quo, where it's been the case repeatedly where the
[14:45] Speaker 2: Trump family or people close to him have taken investments
[14:49] Speaker 2: or had business dealings or arrangements and then not held
[14:52] Speaker 2: up that part of the bargains.
[14:53] Speaker 4: So the narrative I have heard.
[14:55] Speaker 2: So far from Trump administration sources is, yes, the Saudis
[14:58] Speaker 2: will keep pointing to their investments in, for instance, Trump's son-in-law,
[15:03] Speaker 2: Jared Kushner's investment fund, Affinity Partners. But that doesn't necessarily
[15:09] Speaker 2: mean they can use that to pull Trump in against
[15:14] Speaker 2: his will. I will say there's a level, again, of
[15:17] Speaker 2: credence about how much US military power can achieve. President
[15:22] Speaker 2: Trump has been very open to his idea that force
[15:25] Speaker 2: is usually the way to get his way. So that,
[15:28] Speaker 2: I think, is the more likely argument the Saudis are
[15:30] Speaker 2: likely to lean on.
[15:31] Speaker 1: If Trump does decide to launch American strikes against the Houthis,
[15:35] Speaker 1: what could that look like? And with the war against
[15:38] Speaker 1: Iran already stretching American military resources, could the US actually
[15:43] Speaker 1: sustain another campaign?
[15:44] Speaker 4: There's a tremendous risk of a severe civilian toll. if
[15:48] Speaker 4: the U.S. does get involved.
[15:50] Speaker 2: What we saw before, when the U.S. did help the
[15:53] Speaker 2: Saudis and the UAE bomb Yemen for multiple years, was
[15:57] Speaker 2: many allegations of war crimes, a severe man-made humanitarian crisis
[16:01] Speaker 2: because the U.S. and the Saudis helped blockade parts of Yemen.
[16:06] Speaker 2: So there's a lot of concern that that kind of
[16:09] Speaker 2: framework will be used again. And if we look at
[16:12] Speaker 2: just the trajectory over the past three years, going back
[16:15] Speaker 2: to the attacks of October 7, 2023 again, that that
[16:18] Speaker 2: truly tips the scales into a multi-front open regional war
[16:23] Speaker 2: for the U.S.
[16:24] Speaker 4: And its partners.
[16:25] Speaker 2: So I've heard concerns among regional officials, among American officials,
[16:29] Speaker 2: of what would it mean.
[16:31] Speaker 4: If the U.S.
[16:31] Speaker 2: Went after the Houthis for U.S. personnel in other parts
[16:34] Speaker 2: of the Middle East, in Jordan? What would it mean
[16:37] Speaker 2: for potential escalation in Iraq, where there are also very
[16:40] Speaker 2: strong Iranian-backed militias? What could it mean for Iran-backed escalation
[16:46] Speaker 2: in solidarity with the Houthis, more broadly, internationally. I think
[16:51] Speaker 2: there's a real concern there. And of course, there is
[16:54] Speaker 2: the reality that the US has been expending weapons in
[16:57] Speaker 2: wars repeatedly since 2023 in the Middle East. And there's
[17:03] Speaker 2: just a severe backlog and shortage of a lot of
[17:06] Speaker 2: the equipment that the US and its partners need to
[17:08] Speaker 2: both defend themselves, like missile interceptors, and the actual bombs,
[17:14] Speaker 2: munitions that they would want to deploy that kind of campaign.
[17:19] Speaker 1: Well, Akbar, it's an incredibly delicate and complex situation. Thanks
[17:22] Speaker 1: for breaking some of it down for us.
[17:25] Speaker 4: Thanks so much, Daniel.
[17:39] Speaker 1: Also in the news, Australia's unemployment rate has hit its
[17:42] Speaker 1: highest level in nearly five years. reaching 4.7% after nearly
[17:47] Speaker 1: 40,000 Australians fell out of work. August's jobless rate was
[17:51] Speaker 1: also revised from 4.6% to 4.7%, our worst unemployment figures
[17:56] Speaker 1: since COVID. Economists say it's a sign the RBA's interest
[18:00] Speaker 1: rate hikes are starting to work, but aren't ruling out
[18:03] Speaker 1: another increase in the official cash rate next month. And
[18:07] Speaker 1: Green Senator Jordan Steele-John. has taken leave from the party
[18:11] Speaker 1: room after a letter from several party members demanded an
[18:14] Speaker 1: investigation into allegations of inappropriate comments to women. It's been
[18:18] Speaker 1: reported there are multiple allegations against Steele John stretching from
[18:21] Speaker 1: 2017 to 2025. One Greens insider claimed it was well
[18:27] Speaker 1: known within the party that there were concerns around his
[18:29] Speaker 1: behaviour towards women. Leader David Shoebridge says he's taking the
[18:33] Speaker 1: claims extremely seriously. I'm Daniel James. Thanks for listening to 7am.
[18:38] Speaker 1: We'll be back tomorrow.
[18:42] Speaker 4: Thank you.

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