# Bullish on Stocks, Bearish on the Economy — The Inevitable Collision

An episode of [Earn Your Leisure](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1450211392), 3 Jun 2026, 16 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/8dbc4f54-a337-4481-9ef2-b355012b0a3d/b069c131-4f8e-46f2-bab1-b45a00abc790/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eac4c628-29cb-469a-b5c8-b355012b0a48

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## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: But ubs raising the target on the S and P
[0:03] Speaker 1: and yeah, futures, it looks like it's at an all
[0:07] Speaker 1: time high right now. Trump's laying out a thirty day
[0:10] Speaker 1: plan to end the war in Iran and just been
[0:16] Speaker 1: dispute about that from Iran, saying that they you know,
[0:19] Speaker 1: they haven't agreed to fully everything.
[0:20] Speaker 2: You know, it's always kind of back and forth.
[0:23] Speaker 1: They even wanted the reports came that they told Iran
[0:27] Speaker 1: to just don't say anything publicly, like to anything that
[0:31] Speaker 1: he says publicly, because anything that he says publicly is
[0:33] Speaker 1: just propaganda for the American public. Don't worry about it,
[0:37] Speaker 1: like don't, don't, don't even worry about it. And then
[0:40] Speaker 1: you know, we'll talk about the Abraham McCords. He kind
[0:42] Speaker 1: of snuck that in there. He's on a conference call.
[0:45] Speaker 1: What's out already be UAE guitar Turkey, and they said,
[0:50] Speaker 1: like he was. He said that that's part of the
[0:51] Speaker 1: agreement that everybody has to agree to, the Abraham Accords.
[0:53] Speaker 1: And he said when he said that, they caught everybody
[0:56] Speaker 1: off guard. Nobody spoke and he had to actually had
[0:58] Speaker 1: to make a joke to get them to laugh. He
[1:01] Speaker 1: was like, you know, are you still on the line
[1:03] Speaker 1: if you don't know about the Abraham Accords as a
[1:05] Speaker 1: whole other conversation. But there's a lot going on right now.
[1:09] Speaker 1: But he's pushing that the war is over, and that
[1:14] Speaker 1: has the stock market up at all time high right now.
[1:18] Speaker 1: So where we at with this target, Where we're at
[1:21] Speaker 1: with the war allegedly ending stocks going to the moon
[1:26] Speaker 1: as a result of that, Where are we at?
[1:29] Speaker 3: The war isn't over, I don't.
[1:31] Speaker 4: I haven't talked to any US Intel, but I've got
[1:35] Speaker 4: a couple of war sources that's not over.
[1:38] Speaker 3: So that part is manipulation.
[1:40] Speaker 4: But what I will say, due to rise and inflation,
[1:45] Speaker 4: global debt to GDP is three hundred and eight percent.
[1:50] Speaker 4: The only place you can really put the market is
[1:52] Speaker 4: either into a business stocks or tech companies pre IPO,
[1:57] Speaker 4: so there has to be capital.
[1:59] Speaker 3: That is the my end of year target.
[2:02] Speaker 4: I know ubs is and I talked about this in
[2:04] Speaker 4: the stock club last month, but my end of year
[2:07] Speaker 4: target for the ES could go as high as eighty
[2:11] Speaker 4: five thirty five. There's no reason to short this market.
[2:17] Speaker 4: I know everyone keeps looking for a short. Ben Cross
[2:20] Speaker 4: and told us like on stock club call yesterday, everyone
[2:23] Speaker 4: keeps looking to recreate Michael Burry's short. But the real trade,
[2:27] Speaker 4: and I've said this before, it's not the big short,
[2:30] Speaker 4: is to ride the market up endlessly. I have as
[2:34] Speaker 4: ended up probably at eighty five thirty five by the
[2:36] Speaker 4: end of the year, if not by March of next year,
[2:39] Speaker 4: we should hit the target hole for the long term.
[2:43] Speaker 3: And we not only.
[2:44] Speaker 4: That this is the greatest class like these last ten years.
[2:49] Speaker 4: These are the greatest class of tech companies we've ever seen.
[2:52] Speaker 4: Like when you pair in video, AMD, Microsoft, open Ai, Data, Bricks, Anthropic,
[3:01] Speaker 4: you can take any other. And I asked been like,
[3:03] Speaker 4: have you seen a class with this much quality? No,
[3:07] Speaker 4: like one of these companies, if you pourted them back
[3:09] Speaker 4: into the early nineteen nineties, they would smash IBM in
[3:14] Speaker 4: eighties and nineties. So there isn't there's no benefit. And
[3:17] Speaker 4: I said it before, but all the optimists and all
[3:19] Speaker 4: the bears make all the money. Like being a pestimist,
[3:22] Speaker 4: you may sell books or subscriptions, but in terms of
[3:26] Speaker 4: creating real wealth, you have to hope for the long term.
[3:29] Speaker 4: Eighty five thirty five is my long term target for
[3:31] Speaker 4: the SMP.
[3:33] Speaker 5: Yeah, I had that said last week. I said seventy
[3:36] Speaker 5: nine hundred to eighty one hundred. I think I'm going
[3:38] Speaker 5: to lead more toward that eighty one hundred. If you're
[3:42] Speaker 5: looking at the futures market, I think the first thing
[3:44] Speaker 5: I looked out and see the market was closed today,
[3:46] Speaker 5: But the first thing I looked at was where's oil?
[3:48] Speaker 3: Because that'll tell.
[3:49] Speaker 5: Me how we're you know, how we're going to look
[3:51] Speaker 5: on tomorrow morning.
[3:53] Speaker 2: Oil.
[3:54] Speaker 3: I think it was down, got down to ninety dollars
[3:56] Speaker 3: a barrow. Yeah that's eighty nine.
[3:58] Speaker 5: It's creeping up right here now, say ninety one. But
[4:01] Speaker 5: you can see how the markets responded. All the large
[4:05] Speaker 5: the nasta's and p the dell are all up on
[4:08] Speaker 5: that anticipation, which is which is great news for the
[4:10] Speaker 5: companies that we invest in, because when you see prices
[4:13] Speaker 5: go down, then you obviously start thinking about consumer spend.
[4:17] Speaker 5: Consumer spends look pretty good, even with gas prices going up.
[4:20] Speaker 5: I know the average price, and I think off that
[4:23] Speaker 5: he says it's now four dollars. Summer months, you start
[4:26] Speaker 5: to see more spend and travel, so that that is
[4:29] Speaker 5: always good. That means that you know rates potentially, and
[4:33] Speaker 5: I know the new feed chick got sworn in Friday.
[4:35] Speaker 3: Again.
[4:36] Speaker 5: Historically, that usually means that there's going to be a
[4:39] Speaker 5: down cycle at some point. We haven't seen that yet,
[4:42] Speaker 5: but there's some hints that there might be some interest
[4:44] Speaker 5: rate cut and there might be some like pressure to
[4:47] Speaker 5: do that.
[4:48] Speaker 3: So we'll see.
[4:49] Speaker 5: But sure, Yeah, we're in an unpreceing ated time. I
[4:54] Speaker 5: mean just think about five years ago, how many companies
[4:57] Speaker 5: had a market cad of a trillion billion?
[5:00] Speaker 3: Yeah we have thirteen right now, Yeah we.
[5:03] Speaker 4: Have with Saudi and Aramaco and Apple now, yeah, thirteen.
[5:09] Speaker 4: Even think about this, like one hundred billion dollar company
[5:12] Speaker 4: as isn't.
[5:13] Speaker 3: Even taken serious anymore.
[5:16] Speaker 4: Until you get to a quarter of a trillion, no
[5:19] Speaker 4: one has mass interest anymore.
[5:21] Speaker 5: Yeah, we're thinking like then, we just saw Cerebiss and
[5:24] Speaker 5: I think that the evaluation was one hundred and fifty
[5:26] Speaker 5: five billion, and they were saying like, oh, it's a
[5:29] Speaker 5: small IPO.
[5:30] Speaker 3: It's a disappointment.
[5:32] Speaker 5: Small, like in context to what SpaceX could potentially do
[5:38] Speaker 5: at nearly two trillion. We already talked about Anthropic and
[5:40] Speaker 5: open AI at one trillion. These companies are ipoing at
[5:44] Speaker 5: a trillion, which is going to add to it. Mike
[5:46] Speaker 5: cron Is on the CUSP potentially of being the next
[5:49] Speaker 5: trillion dollar company. Walmart past it, but there's real revenue.
[5:54] Speaker 5: It's an unprecedented time to not be part of this market.
[5:57] Speaker 5: We talk about one of the business biggest mistakes is
[5:59] Speaker 5: not part taking into the market.
[6:01] Speaker 4: Yeah, that's what that. Yeah, but that mid term draw
[6:08] Speaker 4: down with the new fair chair, I wonder what that's
[6:13] Speaker 4: going to. Like you said, he's going to be forced
[6:14] Speaker 4: to go in a particular direction. I think that will
[6:18] Speaker 4: cause a midsummer turnaround for sure.
[6:23] Speaker 3: Panic in July and August I.
[6:25] Speaker 5: Had a phone call about that that was like, well,
[6:27] Speaker 5: I'm bullish on the market, and I'm like, you know
[6:29] Speaker 5: in midterm years, Like well, why do you say you're bullets?
[6:31] Speaker 5: And then you give us information like that, And I'm like,
[6:33] Speaker 5: I want to give you the total picture picture, so
[6:36] Speaker 5: nothing surprises you. I'm gonna give you all the information
[6:38] Speaker 5: that I can possibly give you so that you can
[6:41] Speaker 5: have it and you can make informed, precise decisions. That's
[6:46] Speaker 5: what it's about, right, Like I can't press the button
[6:48] Speaker 5: for you, but I can give you information, and so
[6:51] Speaker 5: I want you to know all of that. I don't
[6:52] Speaker 5: want Hey, you never told me about midterm elections and
[6:55] Speaker 5: how that can potentially affect the market. Well, here it is, right,
[6:59] Speaker 5: you never told me about August and September and October
[7:02] Speaker 5: and how violtile that can be.
[7:03] Speaker 3: Well, we're saying.
[7:04] Speaker 2: It, perceive what caution?
[7:07] Speaker 1: Because Ian, you did bank up something last month with
[7:11] Speaker 1: last week when you said in modern history it really
[7:15] Speaker 1: has been only three years of a market downturn. That's true,
[7:18] Speaker 1: for sure, but there was also a flat for ten
[7:21] Speaker 1: years in early two thousands. But often, yeah, a lot,
[7:25] Speaker 1: a lot of the reason why it hasn't been a
[7:26] Speaker 1: market downturn in ten years is because it's been artificially
[7:29] Speaker 1: inflated by an amount of money that's been pumping to
[7:31] Speaker 1: the economy, which is not sustainable. So that's the global
[7:36] Speaker 1: economic issues at play that are bigger than companies. They're bigger,
[7:42] Speaker 1: They're a bigger program. It's a bigger program that's looking shaky.
[7:46] Speaker 1: So the companies look strong, but the bigger, the bigger
[7:49] Speaker 1: program is on very shaky ground.
[7:52] Speaker 3: Right now, Is it gonna make the program hit the printer? Right?
[7:55] Speaker 1: No, you can't already have already exhausted that option. I
[7:59] Speaker 1: don't think you How long can you?
[8:00] Speaker 3: Since twenty twenty and to your point.
[8:03] Speaker 4: You could argue, without that that money printer since COVID,
[8:06] Speaker 4: we would have relived that flat decade.
[8:09] Speaker 1: You think, Hell yeah, with the level of innovation, it
[8:14] Speaker 1: would have been worse than two thousand and eight.
[8:17] Speaker 3: I've always said.
[8:19] Speaker 2: It would have been worse than great. It would have
[8:21] Speaker 2: been worse in the Great Recession.
[8:23] Speaker 4: Twenty five percent of all capital and all cash ever
[8:26] Speaker 4: printed happening.
[8:27] Speaker 3: Between twenty twenty twenty one.
[8:29] Speaker 1: Yeah, they just put money into into them.
[8:37] Speaker 2: It's so much stuff.
[8:38] Speaker 3: So that's think about this.
[8:40] Speaker 4: Even in our community, even being a decad millionaire isn't
[8:45] Speaker 4: celebrated like how it would have been ten years ago.
[8:48] Speaker 4: Oh no, a decad millionaire ten years ago would have
[8:51] Speaker 4: been a lifetime generational crown and achievement, especially like if
[8:57] Speaker 4: you're in the midwest s or now, if you're a
[9:00] Speaker 4: decad millionaire in East Coast or West Coast, that's stimilarly.
[9:05] Speaker 4: It feels like a million and some change in a
[9:08] Speaker 4: smaller city. I've never seen this many people talk about
[9:13] Speaker 4: potentially getting to forty and fifty and sixty million dollars
[9:18] Speaker 4: and it was even posted earlier today. I think there's
[9:21] Speaker 4: like I think they said, it's like seven or eight
[9:25] Speaker 4: million people that have a networth higher than nine to
[9:29] Speaker 4: thirteen million dollars.
[9:31] Speaker 3: That's because of the money printer.
[9:35] Speaker 2: Yeah for sure. Yeah so and but that that's not sustainable.
[9:40] Speaker 2: You bearish A no, you can be both. I'm just
[9:43] Speaker 2: saying what you were you win?
[9:45] Speaker 3: You bullish or bears. I'm bullish on the stock market
[9:49] Speaker 3: bears to the economy. Okay, so.
[9:53] Speaker 1: Yes, but but it's going to collide eventually. This the
[9:57] Speaker 1: bears on the stock market is going to come. The
[10:00] Speaker 1: bears on the economy is going to impact the stock
[10:02] Speaker 1: market eventually.
[10:04] Speaker 4: But even with that, the circular investment into AI and
[10:09] Speaker 4: the data center thing we have to talk about to
[10:12] Speaker 4: on blackout and how it's affecting water supply, the environment.
[10:17] Speaker 3: Oh my god, it's a real concern.
[10:21] Speaker 4: Even if I know people like sometimes make fun when
[10:24] Speaker 4: I'm like, hey, I'm in Mexico. I'm studying the ocean,
[10:26] Speaker 4: the waves of the ocean. There's more sargasm than ever.
[10:28] Speaker 4: But even see water temperature has raised four degrees in
[10:33] Speaker 4: the last year and a half. For those who don't know,
[10:36] Speaker 4: it takes a lot of power to warm up and sea.
[10:41] Speaker 4: That would have great ramifications. And with the water supply
[10:46] Speaker 4: drying up literally and being tainted in the Midwest and Southeast.
[10:53] Speaker 4: We're going to have an ecological crisis like something we
[10:56] Speaker 4: haven't seen if we don't get this shit in order.
[10:58] Speaker 3: Marilla fast, what do you think about that?
[11:01] Speaker 5: The circular economy idea, right, like we saw obviously Oracle
[11:06] Speaker 5: guy head, Microsoft guy head, that story really hasn't changed.
[11:09] Speaker 5: But those those stocks have kind of not rebounded all
[11:14] Speaker 5: the way back to that all.
[11:15] Speaker 3: They've stabilized.
[11:16] Speaker 5: They've stabilized, but the story really hasn't changed, right, and
[11:19] Speaker 5: so it it almost feels like was it over sensationalized?
[11:24] Speaker 5: Definitely needed to be called out so that people are
[11:26] Speaker 5: aware of it. People sold out of those stocks, but
[11:29] Speaker 5: you're starting to see we just talked about Microsoft even
[11:33] Speaker 5: in video was a part of that.
[11:35] Speaker 3: I mean, they're pretty much the the centerpiece of this.
[11:40] Speaker 5: But it hasn't been affected the same way as it
[11:42] Speaker 5: was let's say, late October early November when we started
[11:47] Speaker 5: to hear more more talks about it and people started
[11:50] Speaker 5: to unpacked this this quote unquote circular economy.
[11:54] Speaker 4: Like any ponzi, it's under sensationalized, alleged, alleged alleged, right,
[12:00] Speaker 4: So I'll say for the record, it's good going back
[12:05] Speaker 4: to the relationship part that the put protection for a
[12:08] Speaker 4: lot of these companies.
[12:11] Speaker 3: Is hefe in DC.
[12:14] Speaker 4: I think one of these companies could have had a
[12:17] Speaker 4: cataclysmic restructuring if it was not for the relationship there.
[12:21] Speaker 4: And I don't think we've seen the last of it.
[12:23] Speaker 4: I think some of the companies that have gotten beat
[12:25] Speaker 4: up are not favorable with him there. And do I think, well,
[12:29] Speaker 4: they'll never let us have it like the crash like
[12:32] Speaker 4: we did in two thousand and eight. But if you
[12:34] Speaker 4: ask anybody in tech that a couple of these companies
[12:37] Speaker 4: should not have gone under already, they're they're lying.
[12:41] Speaker 3: So Intel is fit in there right.
[12:44] Speaker 5: The reason why you say Intel, but you let Spirit
[12:46] Speaker 5: their lines go right, just in terms of companies.
[12:49] Speaker 3: Selection, yeah, yeah, and then having Video invest in Intel.
[12:55] Speaker 4: Or if not, then when I go see Jiji, then
[12:58] Speaker 4: your busines and in China is going to be restructured
[13:01] Speaker 4: and all of it goes to Wahwei. My grandmother used
[13:04] Speaker 4: to tell me all the time in politics, enemies make
[13:08] Speaker 4: strange bedfellows sometimes, like you're gonna have to make some
[13:11] Speaker 4: deals and have some concessions with some people you don't
[13:14] Speaker 4: want to do business with if you want to stay alive.
[13:17] Speaker 4: And video and the Intel situation was a prime example.
[13:20] Speaker 4: There's a prime example. That's a fact shot shot. Everybody
[13:23] Speaker 4: that came over from the next game, they are about
[13:26] Speaker 4: twenty five.
[13:26] Speaker 2: So that's over. It's over this wet sweet shot.
[13:32] Speaker 1: Everybody you know has made a decision to invest in
[13:35] Speaker 1: their education. You know, we love the Knicks, support them,
[13:38] Speaker 1: but man, you guys marked the Monday's mass. It's you,
[13:41] Speaker 1: guys versus the world. Because if you are you are
[13:45] Speaker 1: the dedicated. You are dedicated few. It's like the Marines.
[13:51] Speaker 1: You only need a few good men men and women,
[13:56] Speaker 1: and you guys are a few good men and women
[13:58] Speaker 1: that's out there'll appreciate you all. That's changing the world.
[14:02] Speaker 1: You've chosen education over entertainment and that's something in this
[14:06] Speaker 1: world that's extremely difficult and that's very rare.
[14:11] Speaker 2: So who those to you guys?
[14:13] Speaker 5: And you brought up Wawei, and I think that's a
[14:15] Speaker 5: company that people should know because of the innovation and
[14:19] Speaker 5: the importance of China and right, so, there was a
[14:24] Speaker 5: new article that came out in the Journal. I think
[14:26] Speaker 5: CNBC covered it as well as wild Ways now trying
[14:29] Speaker 5: to create semiconductors that will go inside of compute and
[14:32] Speaker 5: will go inside of phones, which is a direct competitor
[14:36] Speaker 5: to Apple. Apple for sure, Apple for sure, but also
[14:40] Speaker 5: in Vidio and somewhat. And this is a lot of
[14:43] Speaker 5: time when you have to read and actually take contextual
[14:48] Speaker 5: clues out. So yeah, potentially it could be a competitor.
[14:51] Speaker 5: But they said they won't be online until twenty thirty one,
[14:55] Speaker 5: so I mean take that. But innovation's happening right This
[14:58] Speaker 5: is a long term game. This is not like, hey,
[15:01] Speaker 5: who wins the next three years, It's who wins the
[15:03] Speaker 5: race twenty thirty forty years out. And so the fact
[15:06] Speaker 5: that they're innovating at this level right now and that
[15:10] Speaker 5: they have again in Nvidio is the leader now, but
[15:13] Speaker 5: who knows what that looks like in five years in
[15:15] Speaker 5: terms of that market, which is why I'm sure he's
[15:17] Speaker 5: trying to get back into that market.
[15:20] Speaker 4: Yeah, and Huawei phones are better and tablets are better
[15:22] Speaker 4: than Apple tablets and phones right now.
[15:25] Speaker 3: Their technology is sick, sick, bro, Yeah, we would What
[15:29] Speaker 5: Country was that we were in, I think it was Senegal,
[15:33] Speaker 5: and I mean Huawei they had a display at this
[15:37] Speaker 5: economic form and the tech, I mean, the technology that
[15:41] Speaker 5: they're displaying is just like, yeah, is ridiculous.

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