# Will the Bull Market Continue? Economic Outlook for 2026 with Caleb Silver

An episode of [Earn Your Leisure](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1450211392), 14 Dec 2025, 15 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/8dbc4f54-a337-4481-9ef2-b355012b0a3d/7753c5c8-90c5-4420-8af0-b3b300e18bf9/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eac4c628-29cb-469a-b5c8-b355012b0a48

In this clip from Market Mondays, hosts Rashad Bilal and Troy Millings sit down with financial analyst Caleb Silver to break down the current economic landscape and what lies ahead for 2026. The conversation starts with a historic event—the cancellation of the American jobs report—and what it signals for business journalists, policymakers, and everyday investors. Caleb Silver explains why, despite the anxiety over inflation and consumer confidence being at lows reminiscent of the Great Financial Crisis, the U.S. economy is in better shape than most people feel. The clip dives into key data points like updated unemployment rates, wage growth, and the impact of underreported layoffs and AI-driven changes in the job market. The discussion pivots to stock market trends, especially the dominance of the "Mag 7" mega-cap tech stocks. Troy Millings asks the crucial question: If the Mag 7’s run slows, can the rest of the S&P 500 pick up the slack? Caleb Silver provides deep insights into what breadth in the market really looks like, highlighting why recent rallies in healthcare, financials, and commodities matter for investors seeking diversification. Walmart’s shift to the Nasdaq and its surprising outperformance versus other tech giants is put under the spotlight. Caleb Silver explains why Walmart's move is strategic, aiming for a spot among elite growth stocks and inclusion in popular indices. Looking ahead, the clip identifies where opportunities may exist for investors going into 2026, including sector rotation, the resurgence of healthcare and biotech, and the importance of looking at undervalued mid- and small-cap stocks. Caleb Silver explains the difference between small, mid, large, and mega-cap companies, and how those categories affect investment strategies in a world dominated by trillion-dollar giants. If you want to understand where the U.S. market, consumer sentiment, and investor behavior are heading, this clip is packed with actionable analysis. Plus, get a behind-the-scenes glimpse of what investors and financial researchers are really looking up as we close out the year. *Hashtags:* #MarketMondays #CalebSilver #EconomicOutlook #2026Forecast #StockMarket #Investing #Walmart #Mag7 #MidCapStocks #SmallCapStocks #FinancialAnalysis #ConsumerConfidence #Inflation #JobMarket #SectorRotation #WallStreet #Nasdaq #S&P500 #BullMarket #Investopedia See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:01] Speaker 1: This episode is brought to you by P and C Bank.
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[0:43] Speaker 2: So let's talk about some other economic factors. The jobs
[0:47] Speaker 2: report was canceled for the first time in our instruy.
[0:51] Speaker 2: So what does this say that amongst other things, but
[0:55] Speaker 2: what does it say about the state of the economy
[0:58] Speaker 2: and what's your thoughts on where we're headed into twenty six?
[1:01] Speaker 3: Yeah, the fact that we haven't gotten the government jobs data,
[1:05] Speaker 3: that is troubling for you know, business journalists like me
[1:08] Speaker 3: on the one hand, but we're getting so much data anyway.
[1:11] Speaker 3: We get great stuff from ADP every month on the
[1:13] Speaker 3: private payrolls. I think that tells you a lot more
[1:15] Speaker 3: than the BLS survey of households and businesses, when they
[1:19] Speaker 3: literally calling tens of thousands of them on the phone
[1:21] Speaker 3: and emailing and saying are you hiring? How many people
[1:24] Speaker 3: are you hiring? Are you planning to hire in the
[1:26] Speaker 3: next three months. They do it in the first two
[1:27] Speaker 3: weeks of every single month, so by the time you
[1:29] Speaker 3: get it anyway, it's already three weeks late, and it's
[1:31] Speaker 3: based on a certain extrapolation.
[1:33] Speaker 4: Of all those phone calls and emails.
[1:35] Speaker 3: So I never thought it was that exact, and it
[1:37] Speaker 3: was getting muddier by the second getting everything that was
[1:39] Speaker 3: going on in the labor.
[1:40] Speaker 4: Department with the Trump administration.
[1:42] Speaker 3: So the economy, I think, is in better shape than
[1:45] Speaker 3: people think, and certainly than the way people feel. People
[1:48] Speaker 3: feel terrible about the economy right now. Consumer confidence, guys,
[1:52] Speaker 3: as you know, is almost as low as it was
[1:53] Speaker 3: during the Great Financial Crisis, and we're in much better
[1:56] Speaker 3: shape than we were back then. Just people feel terrible
[1:58] Speaker 3: because inflation, they feel it's coming even going to come
[2:01] Speaker 3: even more in twenty twenty six, especially in the form
[2:04] Speaker 3: of higher healthcare payments and healthcare premiums. They feel like
[2:06] Speaker 3: prices have gotten out of control, that nobody can control it,
[2:09] Speaker 3: so they blame the government and they blame corporations for that.
[2:12] Speaker 3: But in reality, if the unemployment rate really is somewhere
[2:15] Speaker 3: between four point four and five percent, that's still relatively
[2:19] Speaker 3: low right now. Wages has been increasing like three and
[2:22] Speaker 3: a half to four percent, that's decent. We are hearing
[2:26] Speaker 3: about growing, drumming about more layoffs and you know the
[2:28] Speaker 3: AI fears about it taking people's jobs. Those are significant
[2:32] Speaker 3: and just that psychology can weigh in on people. But
[2:34] Speaker 3: we continue to spend because that's what we're really good at,
[2:37] Speaker 3: is consumers. And as long as we're doing that, and
[2:39] Speaker 3: you have all these you know, multi trillion dollar companies
[2:42] Speaker 3: pledging to spend tens hundreds of billions of dollars with
[2:45] Speaker 3: each other, that's driving the other part of the economy.
[2:47] Speaker 4: Economic growth is going to be there.
[2:49] Speaker 3: Economic growth is going to be there with lower interest
[2:51] Speaker 3: rates next year, and we're going to hear that on
[2:53] Speaker 3: Wednesday when the Fed comes out with its decision, which
[2:55] Speaker 3: will probably lower rates by a quarter point, but it'll
[2:58] Speaker 3: signal through the dot plot it's you know, it's sort
[3:01] Speaker 3: of summary of where FED governors think interest rate should
[3:03] Speaker 3: be a year from now, that they're going to be
[3:05] Speaker 3: probably a full percentage point lower one year from now.
[3:07] Speaker 3: So this combination of lower interest rates in the economy
[3:10] Speaker 3: not falling off a cliff, and tariffs being more smoke
[3:13] Speaker 3: than fire really at this point in time, and corporate
[3:16] Speaker 3: profits are growing. All these things signal the fact that
[3:19] Speaker 3: the economy is probably going to grow and might be
[3:21] Speaker 3: actually okay, although people on the low end of things
[3:24] Speaker 3: are not going to feel it, and they never do.
[3:26] Speaker 3: They're just going to feel worse as the investing class
[3:28] Speaker 3: does even better.
[3:30] Speaker 5: I saw you on your skateboard today talking about the
[3:32] Speaker 5: Fed dut plot. I appreciate that that content. So there
[3:35] Speaker 5: was a report today all over the weekend when they
[3:38] Speaker 5: were talking about the Max seven and how it's had
[3:40] Speaker 5: this amazing run and at some point the reality check
[3:44] Speaker 5: is going to happen, and some analysts are saying it
[3:46] Speaker 5: will happen in twenty twenty six. The same analyst was
[3:48] Speaker 5: saying that the S and P is going to have
[3:50] Speaker 5: a great year next year. I find it kind of
[3:54] Speaker 5: hard to figure out how the two things are going
[3:55] Speaker 5: to work, right, if the max seven you're talking about
[3:58] Speaker 5: some of the biggest companies, these big hyperscales the MAX
[4:01] Speaker 5: I think they make up thirty five to thirty six
[4:03] Speaker 5: percent of the SMB. So if those don't do well,
[4:06] Speaker 5: how do we see the rest of the S and
[4:08] Speaker 5: P picking up that lift and saying, all right, we'll
[4:11] Speaker 5: carry the market from here.
[4:12] Speaker 4: What are your thoughts on this? Yeah, great question, And
[4:15] Speaker 4: you guys know this well.
[4:16] Speaker 3: If you look at the S and P five hundred
[4:18] Speaker 3: versus the equal weight S and P five hundred, Remember
[4:20] Speaker 3: the S and P.
[4:21] Speaker 4: Five hundred is market weighted.
[4:22] Speaker 3: The biggest stocks weigh the most and account for the
[4:24] Speaker 3: biggest part of the index like in video, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple,
[4:28] Speaker 3: you name it. But if you just take an equal weight,
[4:30] Speaker 3: it is underperforming the SMP five hundred by a fair amount,
[4:33] Speaker 3: by about ten percent this year. But what we've seen lately, guys,
[4:36] Speaker 3: which is I find very interesting. After that five percent
[4:39] Speaker 3: pull back a few weeks ago, which seems like forever ago, now,
[4:43] Speaker 3: the market rebounded almost almost to where it was. We're
[4:45] Speaker 3: about one percent away from all time highs. And in
[4:48] Speaker 3: that rebound, we saw with the technical analysis like to
[4:51] Speaker 3: call breath thrust sounds like a fencing term, but what
[4:55] Speaker 3: it really is is a majority of stocks rallying at
[4:59] Speaker 3: the same time, right, And that's what you want to
[5:01] Speaker 3: see in a healthy bull market. You want to see
[5:03] Speaker 3: a lot of stocks rallying, not just ten stocks, twenty
[5:06] Speaker 3: stocks rallying into to make the market make new heis,
[5:10] Speaker 3: And that's really what it was with all these big
[5:13] Speaker 3: megacap tech socks and AI socks. Now you're seeing better breath,
[5:16] Speaker 3: and you're seeing better breath in sectors that actually matter.
[5:19] Speaker 3: You're starting to see a little bit in commodities because
[5:22] Speaker 3: interest rates are cooling out a little bit on the
[5:24] Speaker 3: short term. You're starting to see it in healthcare, which
[5:26] Speaker 3: we haven't seen in a long time. You're starting to
[5:28] Speaker 3: see it in financials because lower rates are coming. That's
[5:31] Speaker 3: going to be good for them in terms of their
[5:32] Speaker 3: net interest margins. So you're seeing broader participation in the market,
[5:36] Speaker 3: and that's a healthy sign of a bull market in
[5:39] Speaker 3: its fourth year. And this bull is getting a little
[5:41] Speaker 3: bit tired. That said all, we're going into a midterm
[5:44] Speaker 3: election year. Those are always a little volatile, but the
[5:46] Speaker 3: trend is up until the right, especially with lower interest
[5:49] Speaker 3: rates on the horizon that power small to mid cap
[5:51] Speaker 3: stocks and sectors outside of megacap tech. That's actually good
[5:54] Speaker 3: news for momentum. I'm not saying we're going to get
[5:56] Speaker 3: another eighteen nineteen percent year. Probably will get annoy normal
[6:00] Speaker 3: a year unless something terrible happens.
[6:02] Speaker 6: Do you to follow up in Short's question, do you
[6:04] Speaker 6: think we have a reformulation of the MAX seven Well,
[6:07] Speaker 6: do you think it'll be a consolidation into five or
[6:10] Speaker 6: do you think they'll keep the MAX seven and just
[6:13] Speaker 6: change the waiting in the structure of it.
[6:16] Speaker 3: I think just by the nature of investor preference, it'll change.
[6:21] Speaker 3: As you know, you've seen investors, especially big investors like
[6:24] Speaker 3: Berkshire Hathaway another stocks like Apple, But the leadership is
[6:28] Speaker 3: still the leadership and the biggest stocks in the index
[6:31] Speaker 3: right now.
[6:32] Speaker 4: So you know MAX seven.
[6:33] Speaker 3: I think that was Kramer who came up with that term,
[6:35] Speaker 3: along with Fang to come up with a name for that.
[6:38] Speaker 3: It's really ben as you guys know, more like you
[6:40] Speaker 3: know a dozen stocks and you named a few that
[6:42] Speaker 3: were a real part of the rally or the oracles
[6:45] Speaker 3: of the world, the sales forces of the world. They
[6:47] Speaker 3: were a big part of that rally as well. Anybody
[6:48] Speaker 3: that was tied to the AI build out and has
[6:51] Speaker 3: a big market cap was useful and helpful in bringing
[6:55] Speaker 3: the market to record highs eighteen times already so far
[6:57] Speaker 3: this year. But you'll get a broadening out of participation
[7:00] Speaker 3: and you're seeing stocks making record highs. You know, you're
[7:03] Speaker 3: seeing the banks start to roll back and the record highs,
[7:05] Speaker 3: the JP Morgans and Goldman's, those were dancing our record
[7:08] Speaker 3: high So when you see financials doing well and you
[7:11] Speaker 3: see starts to see other sectors rallying along with it
[7:13] Speaker 3: outside of tech, that's a good sign. So I you know,
[7:16] Speaker 3: you'll you'll always have leadership. But well, we'll come up
[7:19] Speaker 3: with a new name in the next year or two
[7:21] Speaker 3: whatever next group of stocks outperforms the rest of them.
[7:24] Speaker 5: Yeah, we got to figure out how to get broad
[7:25] Speaker 5: Common to your seven side there.
[7:27] Speaker 4: Yeah, Broadcom has been an outstanding stock. Yeah, also Walmart too.
[7:33] Speaker 6: Can I do a follow up? Real quicker shot? The
[7:35] Speaker 6: stock is valued of what forty times earnings? They think
[7:39] Speaker 6: the stock is up twenty five percent this year? Why
[7:41] Speaker 6: do you think Walmart doesn't get the same respect in
[7:43] Speaker 6: Amazon may receive even though if you look going back
[7:48] Speaker 6: to twenty eighteen, less parts at twenty cents currently a
[7:52] Speaker 6: one thirteen fifty six. Despite classification of where they landed,
[7:57] Speaker 6: why do you think that they aren't put in that
[7:59] Speaker 6: Mad seven or Elite eight type of range.
[8:02] Speaker 4: Well, did you notice what just happened in the last
[8:04] Speaker 4: couple of weeks? Where did that? What happened with Walmart?
[8:06] Speaker 4: What exchange did it move to?
[8:09] Speaker 3: It moved to the Nasdaq, great point, right, It's been
[8:12] Speaker 3: on the nearest stock exchange forever, right, and it decided
[8:16] Speaker 3: that it needed to be listed on a different exchange,
[8:19] Speaker 3: the NASDAK. Now why the Nasdaq, Right, that's where the
[8:21] Speaker 3: fastest growth stocks in the world live. That's where growth stocks,
[8:24] Speaker 3: that's it, that's where you list. And so it wanted
[8:27] Speaker 3: to be included in those conversations. So you're not the
[8:29] Speaker 3: only one that noticed it. And they noticed it themselves.
[8:32] Speaker 3: They are much more than the biggest retailer in the world,
[8:34] Speaker 3: and they are that, but they are a logistics company, right,
[8:37] Speaker 3: They're a data company, right, that is what they're into
[8:40] Speaker 3: these days. And I was just out in Bettonville for
[8:43] Speaker 3: the first time. If you guys haven't been out there.
[8:44] Speaker 3: First of all, we should go out there and do
[8:46] Speaker 3: a market Monday's out there. There's nothing it is outstanding
[8:49] Speaker 3: that it blew my mind being in that town and
[8:52] Speaker 3: you see the history of Walmart, which is really the
[8:56] Speaker 3: history of America, and just just all over the place,
[9:00] Speaker 3: in the infrastructure that's around the Walmart trooper centers there,
[9:03] Speaker 3: it's phenomenal.
[9:04] Speaker 4: So it wants to be a tech company.
[9:05] Speaker 3: It wants to be thought of as a growth company,
[9:07] Speaker 3: and so it changed where it was listed and maybe
[9:09] Speaker 3: able to get that respect because now you've got to
[9:11] Speaker 3: include it in the qqqs of the world, right, you
[9:14] Speaker 3: got to include it.
[9:15] Speaker 4: With growth stocks.
[9:15] Speaker 3: Indexes and portfolio managers that own those sectors are going
[9:19] Speaker 3: to have to buy it if they.
[9:20] Speaker 4: Don't own it already.
[9:21] Speaker 3: And it's actually outperformed I was checking this out. It's
[9:25] Speaker 3: outperformed the NASAC over the past five years. So it
[9:28] Speaker 3: definitely belongs in that exchange and maybe it'll get the
[9:30] Speaker 3: respect that it deserves.
[9:32] Speaker 2: What opportunities do you see in twenty twenty six.
[9:36] Speaker 3: Well, I think this sector rotation is helpful and good.
[9:39] Speaker 3: We have all been piled into the same group of
[9:42] Speaker 3: stocks forever and it's been great. It's been very rewarding
[9:46] Speaker 3: for shareholders. Right, if you picked the five to ten
[9:49] Speaker 3: fastest growing stocks in the market, especially in tech, especially
[9:52] Speaker 3: in Internet and communications and AI, you have had an
[9:55] Speaker 3: incredible run as a shareholder. And no surprise that we
[9:58] Speaker 3: have more four to one k millionaires than any time
[10:00] Speaker 3: in history. We've all been piled into the same socks.
[10:02] Speaker 3: But when everyone's piled into that side of the boat,
[10:05] Speaker 3: you can see what happens.
[10:05] Speaker 4: We saw, you know, the.
[10:06] Speaker 3: NVIDIAs of the world, the Oracles of the world, of Microsoft,
[10:09] Speaker 3: the Matters, these were down beyond correction territory. They're almost
[10:13] Speaker 3: down in baar market territory. So you've had a healthy
[10:16] Speaker 3: valuation resizing there, which is good. But in a lot
[10:19] Speaker 3: of ways they've become value stocks or safety stocks.
[10:23] Speaker 4: Right.
[10:23] Speaker 3: It's either gold or that, right, and it all depends
[10:26] Speaker 3: on the equity risk premium for investors right now. So
[10:28] Speaker 3: I think you're going to see a rotation into a
[10:31] Speaker 3: little bit more defensive, but also a little bit more
[10:34] Speaker 3: broadening into the healthcare sector. As I mentioned earlier, biotech
[10:37] Speaker 3: finally caught a bid and then smaller down the market
[10:41] Speaker 3: value chain as you get into the midcaps and the
[10:44] Speaker 3: small caps that are going to benefit from lower interest rates.
[10:46] Speaker 4: There's a lot of.
[10:47] Speaker 3: Good companies there that are doing business in a way
[10:50] Speaker 3: that's not necessarily tearff sensitive, that are operating great businesses.
[10:54] Speaker 3: So I watch midcaps. You can buy the MidCap ETFs
[10:58] Speaker 3: if you want, or you can buy the small caps.
[11:00] Speaker 3: You have to get some exposure to.
[11:02] Speaker 2: Explain because some people might not be familiar from your website.
[11:05] Speaker 2: Can you explain the difference when you say mid caps
[11:07] Speaker 2: small cap?
[11:08] Speaker 4: Oh? Sure, large cap? Yeah, small cap stocks.
[11:11] Speaker 3: We're talking like five billion to ten to fifteen twenty
[11:14] Speaker 3: billion in marketcap, right, and market cap means the stock
[11:18] Speaker 3: price time, the amount of shares outstanding. The more shares outstanding,
[11:21] Speaker 3: the bigger your stock price, the higher your market cap.
[11:23] Speaker 3: And videov obviously the biggest of the mar of the
[11:26] Speaker 3: companies in the world in terms of market caap. Mid
[11:29] Speaker 3: caps are more in that twenty five I would say,
[11:32] Speaker 3: two hundred billion dollars market cap range. And these are
[11:35] Speaker 3: manufacturing companies, these are financial services companies. Some of these
[11:39] Speaker 3: are even tech companies or working on the fringes of
[11:41] Speaker 3: AI or on the fringes of semiconductors, and they have
[11:46] Speaker 3: fabulous businesses that are super profitable, and right now, you
[11:49] Speaker 3: want to have very strong profit margins. If you are
[11:53] Speaker 3: a publicly traded company, this matters more than anything revenue
[11:57] Speaker 3: per employee, how much productivity are you squeezing out of
[12:00] Speaker 3: your labor force, how are you using a AI to
[12:02] Speaker 3: do that, and how is that powering your profit margins
[12:05] Speaker 3: and your profits Because at the end of the day,
[12:07] Speaker 3: as investors, that's what we're paying for. Grow your profits
[12:10] Speaker 3: because it's going to be reflected in your share price
[12:12] Speaker 3: and in the dividends you pay back to investors. So
[12:14] Speaker 3: in that mid cap range, they're going to benefit from
[12:16] Speaker 3: lower interest rates because these companies borrow a lot of
[12:18] Speaker 3: money and as rates go down and they refinance their debt,
[12:21] Speaker 3: that eases the stress on their balance sheets and they're
[12:24] Speaker 3: more profitable and that's usually a benefit to shareholders. So
[12:27] Speaker 3: I would look down down the chain a little bit
[12:29] Speaker 3: as well.
[12:30] Speaker 2: And then large cap did you talk about large gap?
[12:32] Speaker 3: Yeah, large cap are the biggest companies in the world.
[12:34] Speaker 3: The two hundred billion to now five trillion megacap, Oh mega,
[12:38] Speaker 3: those are megacaps. Those are the one trillion to five trillion.
[12:41] Speaker 3: Large cap would be the two hundred billion to one
[12:45] Speaker 3: trillion dollars in market CAAP now, but that you know,
[12:47] Speaker 3: those ranges have expanded over time because we live in
[12:50] Speaker 3: the land of the giants.
[12:51] Speaker 5: You had to update Invesclopedia because we didn't have a
[12:54] Speaker 5: trillion dollar company until like recently. You're right, I gotta
[12:59] Speaker 5: all get right now that I want it because you
[13:02] Speaker 5: sit in a unique seat and we're trending towards the
[13:05] Speaker 5: end of the year. I wonder from a retail investors side,
[13:08] Speaker 5: what are you seeing in people searching?
[13:11] Speaker 3: Like?
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