# 2026 Stock Market Predictions: AI, Political Risk & Global Conflict

An episode of [Earn Your Leisure](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1450211392), 11 Jan 2026, 11 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/8dbc4f54-a337-4481-9ef2-b355012b0a3d/bb4e495b-ba0e-49aa-9ef1-b3cf0113dbec/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eac4c628-29cb-469a-b5c8-b355012b0a48

Dive into bold predictions and candid insights about the 2026 financial landscape in this Market Mondays clip! Troy Millings, Ian Dunlap, and Morgan Debaun break down what investors can expect, covering everything from explosive market rallies, looming geopolitical tensions, the future of AI, and the impact of midterm elections. Troy Millings forecasts an "absolutely amazing" first half of the year with the Dow potentially hitting new highs, but flags concerns about a possible mid-year market drop due to geopolitical shocks. He points to record highs in copper, gold, and silver, suggesting that something has to give in this risk-on environment—whether in tech, crypto, or commodities. Troy also calls out leadership at major corporations, hinting it’s time for fresh faces at the helm as several big names continue to struggle. Morgan Debaun brings historic perspective, spotlighting the pattern that when the first five trading days of a year are positive, 85% of the time so is the full year. She discusses the nuanced relationship between war, market volatility, and policy changes, expressing cautious optimism for continued market gains—possibly double digits—while keeping an eye on election-year shifts and their economic consequences. Ian Dunlap emphasizes the profound influence of domestic politics on market performance. He probes the “blue wave” effect, suggesting Democratic wins could mean short-term negative returns, while Republican control is positive for stocks. Ian illustrates how social media and news manipulation—such as the Somali daycare controversy—play into broader political strategies to sway public opinion and market sentiment. He advocates for bold action over safe plays, both in politics and investment. This clip is packed with real talk, actionable insights, and a healthy dose of skepticism about leadership, subsidies, and global game-changers. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just trying to understand the market’s next move, Market Mondays offers a fresh take on the challenges and opportunities ahead for 2026. *Key Topics Covered:* • 2026 market forecasts and why the first half may soar • The role of commodities, tech, and crypto in reshaping risk • Geopolitical conflicts and midterm fallout risks • The enduring strength—and limits—of the AI trend • How political control influences market returns • Real-world examples of news manipulation and corporate bailouts • The need for bold leadership and new strategies in business and government Join the conversation and let us know: Do you agree with these predictions? What sectors are you betting on? Connect with the Market Mondays community in the comments! *Hashtags:* #StockMarket #Predictions2026 #MarketMondays #Investing #AI #Politics #Geopolitics #DowJones #SP500 #TroyMillings #IanDunlap #MorganDebaun #FinancialInsights #WallStreet #GlobalMarkets See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: Earners.
[0:00] Speaker 2: What's up.
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[1:38] Speaker 2: Okay. Overall predictions for twenty twenty six.
[1:41] Speaker 4: I think the first half of the year will be
[1:43] Speaker 4: absolutely amazing. I have doubt ended up at fifty two thousand,
[1:48] Speaker 4: spy seven forty nine. Couple of concerns though, midterm fallout One.
[1:58] Speaker 4: I'm worried about a mid your and how some of
[2:00] Speaker 4: this geopolitical stuff will shake and rut of the market.
[2:04] Speaker 4: I alluded to it earlier, but I bring it up
[2:06] Speaker 4: again now. Copper, gold, and silver are all hidden highs,
[2:12] Speaker 4: and they're supposed to be offsetting each other, which means
[2:16] Speaker 4: if people are risk on commodities, and now risk on
[2:20] Speaker 4: is coming back and teching crypto, something's going to have
[2:23] Speaker 4: to break. So you're gonna have to follow the administration
[2:27] Speaker 4: closely to see where those cracks could be. And I'll
[2:30] Speaker 4: be looking at who falls out of favor with him
[2:33] Speaker 4: and what industry they're in to see what will fall first. Lastly,
[2:42] Speaker 4: I don't think that the AI trade is over, but
[2:45] Speaker 4: we have to be very honest about some of these
[2:47] Speaker 4: companies like Adobe, maybe Salesforce. There are some companies in
[2:52] Speaker 4: the rust of two thousand s and P five hundred
[2:55] Speaker 4: and now that are just getting flat out murdered and
[2:59] Speaker 4: there isn't anything to come in to fix those companies.
[3:02] Speaker 4: And I'm worried about if AI, like software, eats the world,
[3:05] Speaker 4: but AI eat software, what happens to the bottom forty
[3:09] Speaker 4: percent of software companies that are no longer as usedful
[3:13] Speaker 4: can't carry your premium, and we don't have American excellence
[3:16] Speaker 4: in terms of our executive leadership byb Iger's time for
[3:19] Speaker 4: you to turn your succession plan too. Business has been
[3:22] Speaker 4: flat for three fucking years.
[3:24] Speaker 2: Everybody get.
[3:27] Speaker 4: I'm here to keep it real. They said they want
[3:28] Speaker 4: the old energy back. I'm just being real, Tim Cook.
[3:31] Speaker 4: It is time for you to step down. You go
[3:32] Speaker 4: over the Nike. You already got your off board and
[3:34] Speaker 4: plan Bob, it's time for you to turn over and
[3:36] Speaker 4: let them be co CEO and let that be that.
[3:41] Speaker 4: And then a geopolitical risk we talked about earlier with Taiwan,
[3:44] Speaker 4: but I'm really worried about what Trump would do in Nigeria,
[3:49] Speaker 4: Colombia and a couple other countries after this village wild
[3:51] Speaker 4: of plan H worked out in his favor.
[3:58] Speaker 1: It's interesting, I think we'll have another positive year.
[4:02] Speaker 2: We always do this.
[4:04] Speaker 1: The historic first five days of the trading year. So yeah,
[4:07] Speaker 1: we've we've done two already. And the theory is and
[4:09] Speaker 1: it's I mean eighty five percent of the time it
[4:11] Speaker 1: has been correct depending on how the first five days
[4:14] Speaker 1: of the trading year go for the S and P,
[4:16] Speaker 1: whether those first five days cumulative are positive, eighty five
[4:20] Speaker 1: percent of the time the years going positive. So we're
[4:24] Speaker 1: off to two positive days. I see we can get
[4:26] Speaker 1: to three more and that would be great. It came
[4:30] Speaker 1: to fruition last year as well, so we can add
[4:32] Speaker 1: to that percentage. I just think, you know, there were
[4:35] Speaker 1: times when war would mean volatility in the market over
[4:41] Speaker 1: the past. I don't know, it's very rare the past
[4:43] Speaker 1: two or three years I wouldn't say war conflict. We've
[4:48] Speaker 1: seen like maybe a slight pullback and then things are
[4:50] Speaker 1: back to normal in the market, which is interesting. I
[4:53] Speaker 1: think there's going to be more conflict for sure, and
[4:58] Speaker 1: I'm interested to see how out how the market response
[5:02] Speaker 1: to that, because, like you said, people are going to say,
[5:05] Speaker 1: all right, well, this is an opportunity to make money
[5:08] Speaker 1: in some of these places. I think the AI story
[5:10] Speaker 1: is definitely still prominent. I think it's still leads. But
[5:14] Speaker 1: I am that that if we're going by that first
[5:17] Speaker 1: five day year, and we're going by that that theory,
[5:19] Speaker 1: then we also have to look at the midterm election
[5:21] Speaker 1: theory and if roles changed in Congress, how that could
[5:27] Speaker 1: potentially affect the market. Uh, it usually has. But overall,
[5:32] Speaker 1: I think we have a positive year. I don't know
[5:35] Speaker 1: if we're I want to say double digits. I want
[5:39] Speaker 1: to say I think, yeah, I think it's double digits.
[5:42] Speaker 1: I know NAT did twenty again this year for the
[5:44] Speaker 1: thirty year in a row. I don't know if we're there,
[5:47] Speaker 1: but definitely over somewhere over ten.
[5:51] Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I think thirteen percent is where we're
[5:52] Speaker 4: coming up.
[5:53] Speaker 5: Yeah, very rare for the stock market to go up
[5:55] Speaker 5: four years in a row, double digits, but anything as possible.
[5:58] Speaker 5: But also the political risk, I think is a lot
[6:01] Speaker 5: of domestic a lot of domestic political risk that can
[6:04] Speaker 5: impact the market. I think if the Democrats really do
[6:07] Speaker 5: have a blue wave, then that's gonna be in the
[6:10] Speaker 5: short term negative for the stock market. Now, they're already
[6:17] Speaker 5: making attempts to undermine the undermine Democratic wave, and you
[6:25] Speaker 5: saw that happen in Minnesota with the Somali daycare situation.
[6:29] Speaker 5: This this thing was pushed on Twitter by Elon Musk.
[6:32] Speaker 5: When you control algorithm, you can do whatever you want.
[6:36] Speaker 5: And there's no coincidence that the governments stepped down today.
[6:40] Speaker 5: It was it was it's a political yeah, he stepped
[6:47] Speaker 5: down as all, you're not gonna run for real.
[6:49] Speaker 2: This is a political hit job executed very well.
[6:57] Speaker 5: So they're not going down without a fight, as far
[7:00] Speaker 5: as Republicans are not going to go down without a fight.
[7:02] Speaker 5: They controlled pretty much every industry right now and they're
[7:05] Speaker 5: very well resourced. So MAGA two point zero. You may,
[7:10] Speaker 5: you may, you may not see the blue wave that
[7:13] Speaker 5: you think you will see. I think if the Republicans
[7:16] Speaker 5: keep the House in the Senate, that's going to be
[7:18] Speaker 5: good for the stock market in the short term. I
[7:20] Speaker 5: think if the Democrats take take the House, the Senate,
[7:23] Speaker 5: that's going to have a negative impact on it on
[7:25] Speaker 5: the stock market for the short term.
[7:28] Speaker 2: I agree.
[7:29] Speaker 4: Yeah, that thirteen percent probably dropped the nine if that changes, yeah, yeah, yeah.
[7:39] Speaker 2: Let's let's see. But who knows, who knows Molly Daycare?
[7:43] Speaker 5: Who would have thought that Somali Somali Daycare would be
[7:45] Speaker 5: the number one story in the world.
[7:48] Speaker 4: It's crazy. They bring up that fraud, but not all
[7:50] Speaker 4: the other fraud that's being committed that benefits them ellentually
[7:54] Speaker 4: all allegend.
[7:55] Speaker 2: Right, it's ridiculous, It's ridiculous.
[7:58] Speaker 5: I mean, there's a few other days kids, for sure,
[8:03] Speaker 5: there's a few others that need to be talked about
[8:05] Speaker 5: if you want to.
[8:11] Speaker 2: If you really if let's listen, a couple.
[8:16] Speaker 4: Of hotel change allegedly they are not publicly traded.
[8:21] Speaker 2: Ever, so government subsidies, corporate bailouts.
[8:29] Speaker 4: I feel like Bernie Sanders, like what not saying it
[8:33] Speaker 4: is right? But boy, the package y'all get on the
[8:35] Speaker 4: back of what. Okay, y'all stop the non farm payroll?
[8:42] Speaker 4: Yeah change, I mean Biden changed the definition of recession,
[8:48] Speaker 4: like what do we what?
[8:50] Speaker 5: Okay, But Democrats, y'all gotta they gotta do something because.
[8:56] Speaker 4: I answer this time, either not to cut you off
[9:00] Speaker 4: ain't the fucking answer. Y'all need to go get some
[9:03] Speaker 4: other piece. Shot to Meg and Clay Meg not the answer.
[9:06] Speaker 4: Y'all gonna have to bring some real solutions this time.
[9:11] Speaker 5: And the reason why I think that the Democrat if
[9:13] Speaker 5: they do win, is gonna have at least a short
[9:15] Speaker 5: term effect in the market is because I feel like
[9:17] Speaker 5: the Democrats only hope is to turn extremely to the left.
[9:21] Speaker 2: This is why Mandanni is the mayor of New York City.
[9:26] Speaker 5: You got it, and that's going to cause shockwaves in
[9:29] Speaker 5: the market if you have a if you have a
[9:32] Speaker 5: wave of.
[9:32] Speaker 2: Socialism that that takes over.
[9:35] Speaker 5: But but but that would actually be intelligent because they're
[9:37] Speaker 5: playing it too safe right now. They're playing it too
[9:39] Speaker 5: much in the middle. One foot in, one foot out. Mandanni,
[9:43] Speaker 5: he broke every every rule possible. He broke every rule possible, said,
[9:47] Speaker 5: if naw y'ahoo comes to New York City, he's getting
[9:49] Speaker 5: arrested on site. And he got more Jewish votes than
[9:52] Speaker 5: any other mayor, and they got Eric Adams talking about
[9:57] Speaker 5: he moved. I think he moved to Israel. If I'm
[9:59] Speaker 5: not mistake, you should. But I'm just saying, like you
[10:03] Speaker 5: playing it safe and you still losing to ask. You
[10:07] Speaker 5: cannot play it safe in twenty twenty six. You gotta
[10:10] Speaker 5: a good brand lesson all or nothing.
[10:13] Speaker 4: Yeah, there's nothing between.
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