# A Crash Could Be Coming But Not for the Reason You Think!

An episode of [Earn Your Leisure](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1450211392), 2 May 2026, 10 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/8dbc4f54-a337-4481-9ef2-b355012b0a3d/c3a14b13-b836-4b05-8152-b43e011c0086/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eac4c628-29cb-469a-b5c8-b355012b0a48

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## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: Let's talk about the strength of the market, and a
[0:04] Speaker 1: few interesting things are so on Instagram put in the
[0:07] Speaker 1: group chat so S and P five hundred relative to
[0:11] Speaker 1: M two money supply is almost exactly where it was
[0:15] Speaker 1: at the dot com bubble. And then also the SNP
[0:23] Speaker 1: the dot com bubble overall chart laid over the current
[0:27] Speaker 1: S and P five hundred chart, it's almost exactly the same.
[0:33] Speaker 1: So a lot of people are starting to say this
[0:37] Speaker 1: looks a lot like the dot com bubble, and a
[0:42] Speaker 1: market crash is coming.
[0:49] Speaker 2: With all the kindness and love in my heart for
[0:52] Speaker 2: me to you, from Santel to you, if you think
[0:56] Speaker 2: a crash is coming this year, you're missing it will
[1:00] Speaker 2: have come next year.
[1:02] Speaker 3: Yes.
[1:04] Speaker 2: The great part about my thesis about people say why
[1:07] Speaker 2: invest in two index funds if they hold the same
[1:09] Speaker 2: companies team clipped us up. I've always said for mitigation
[1:13] Speaker 2: to risk. Notice when software stocks were down twenty to
[1:16] Speaker 2: thirty five percent to fifty five percent, the SMP was
[1:19] Speaker 2: only down three percent and everyone was panicking like it
[1:23] Speaker 2: was nineteen ninety nine or two thousand and one. I
[1:27] Speaker 2: will say, despite the difference between ninety nine and now,
[1:31] Speaker 2: is that companies okay think about it this way. I
[1:35] Speaker 2: criticize Apple while being at four trillion in ninety nine,
[1:44] Speaker 2: you couldn't put six companies together that was half as
[1:47] Speaker 2: good as Apple's fifth competitor. The strength of the market
[1:51] Speaker 2: is better because the companies are better. Look at Anthropic,
[1:56] Speaker 2: and despite all the stuff I've said about Sam Autman
[1:58] Speaker 2: and that's been revealed and the book that's come out
[2:01] Speaker 2: and all the investigative journalism, that company's worth a trillion,
[2:05] Speaker 2: Anthropics worth a trillion, SpaceX worth it pre Ipo.
[2:10] Speaker 3: Maybe two twion, arguably right.
[2:15] Speaker 2: So the strength of the companies are better than we've seen.
[2:19] Speaker 2: And you can't leave out Google, or you can't leave
[2:22] Speaker 2: out Lily. You can't leave out There's a bunch of
[2:24] Speaker 2: companies if you go down the list of Dow, the
[2:27] Speaker 2: S and P, the NASAC that are just are like
[2:31] Speaker 2: some of the highest grade of company that we've ever seen.
[2:35] Speaker 2: So the comparison would be false. And wishing for a
[2:37] Speaker 2: crash does work for you. It does nothing even if
[2:42] Speaker 2: we let's say we dropped fifty percent. You know, like,
[2:45] Speaker 2: if I can be very honest tonight, you know who
[2:47] Speaker 2: doesn't give a damn about a cris The people who've
[2:48] Speaker 2: been invested in the last thing years. A fifty percent
[2:50] Speaker 2: drop means shit. If you're up to twenty five hundred percent,
[2:53] Speaker 2: three thousand percent, Like the people who got an Expedia
[2:57] Speaker 2: in nine twenty two, they don't care about a drop.
[3:01] Speaker 2: That's why length of hold. Like for you guys, it's
[3:03] Speaker 2: already been with seven years. I don't think y'all selling
[3:06] Speaker 2: it the next three. Why because you've extrapolated what the
[3:10] Speaker 2: IP is going to be worth in twenty two years.
[3:13] Speaker 2: So I think everyone who wishes for a crash are
[3:16] Speaker 2: only the people who've been sitting.
[3:17] Speaker 3: On the sidelines.
[3:19] Speaker 4: I think I'll say this. I say I'll say that
[3:22] Speaker 4: they do care if there is a crash. From the
[3:24] Speaker 4: standpoint of great, here comes a new entry point for.
[3:27] Speaker 2: Us to talk about it.
[3:28] Speaker 3: There's gonna be another Yeah.
[3:30] Speaker 4: I think the dot com era is hugely different, and
[3:34] Speaker 4: I think you kind of touched on it. But when
[3:36] Speaker 4: you look at the revenue that these companies are bringing in,
[3:39] Speaker 4: that that changes it. When you're talking about Apple and Video, Broadcom, Amazon, Google,
[3:46] Speaker 4: you're talking about meta trillion dollar company. Might send No.
[3:51] Speaker 4: I mean Micro is not even a trillion dollar company yet, right,
[3:54] Speaker 4: But we've been in this company since it was one
[3:56] Speaker 4: hundred billion is probably sitting at about five hundred billion.
[3:59] Speaker 4: Now this is not even that two hundred billion. Yet
[4:02] Speaker 4: there's so much more growth for these companies. The demand
[4:05] Speaker 4: has not changed, and we're still at the start of
[4:07] Speaker 4: a revolution. I think that's what makes it very different
[4:10] Speaker 4: from from the dot com bubble and this we're going
[4:12] Speaker 4: to see every.
[4:13] Speaker 3: I was the start of a revolution too true dot
[4:16] Speaker 3: com I was saying we have to start a this revolution.
[4:18] Speaker 4: But the demand is there and we're starting to see
[4:22] Speaker 4: now companies that are about the IPO that are going
[4:25] Speaker 4: to have some of the answers of how we now
[4:27] Speaker 4: monetize it. Right, Like I personally just upg like Claude
[4:33] Speaker 4: it's out of.
[4:33] Speaker 3: Grade right the run that they've been on. Right.
[4:37] Speaker 4: I started out as a nineteen dollars subscriber to Claude Pro.
[4:41] Speaker 4: I've recently upgraded to a two hundred dollars subscriber to
[4:44] Speaker 4: monthly Why because of how I'm using it on a
[4:47] Speaker 4: functionality basis, So that starts to tell like, here's the
[4:49] Speaker 4: story of how we can now monetize on some of
[4:52] Speaker 4: the AI that we're using. Minstrel is doing it in
[4:55] Speaker 4: Europe there are more stories coming out.
[4:57] Speaker 3: We already talked about Man and what metas.
[4:58] Speaker 4: Doing, so the use case is slowly starting to creep
[5:01] Speaker 4: into the story. Quarter after quarter, we keep thinking, Okay, well,
[5:05] Speaker 4: the demand's going to change. The demand's going to change
[5:07] Speaker 4: in every quarter that we've seen, and we're going to
[5:09] Speaker 4: see big companies coming up next week that the megacap
[5:12] Speaker 4: companies will be reporting. I know this something that's gonna
[5:14] Speaker 4: be reporting this week as well. That hasn't changed, right,
[5:18] Speaker 4: we just saw TSM demand is actually tripled.
[5:21] Speaker 1: Well, would you say, would you say some of the
[5:23] Speaker 1: best companies in human history came out of the dot
[5:25] Speaker 1: com era?
[5:26] Speaker 3: A few, a lot of them. A few, I think
[5:29] Speaker 3: there's and there's more.
[5:29] Speaker 4: Grateful Yeah, well, Amazon, Google tail En, Amazon for.
[5:35] Speaker 1: Sure part of the dot com era. Yeah, I'm just
[5:37] Speaker 1: saying Google changed the world. It's comparable to it's comparable.
[5:41] Speaker 1: It birthed some of the strongest companies ever. It revolutionized
[5:44] Speaker 1: the world, started a revolution. A lot of the same
[5:48] Speaker 1: talking points you can say about the burn like dot
[5:50] Speaker 1: com wasn't like NFTs, like.
[5:52] Speaker 2: No, no, no, no, no, no, it was there was there
[5:54] Speaker 2: were a lot of companies that that bust the Roil
[5:58] Speaker 2: Time Warner merger.
[6:00] Speaker 3: But the key is why did they bust why poles?
[6:04] Speaker 3: Because of the revenue?
[6:05] Speaker 4: Right were they bringing in revenue quarter to quarter to
[6:08] Speaker 4: quarter to quarter? Was there a demand for their services?
[6:11] Speaker 4: There might have been a demand, and it might have
[6:12] Speaker 4: been an influx of companies and try to create the
[6:15] Speaker 4: demand exactly. And that that's the difference. Right, So when
[6:18] Speaker 4: we're looking at demand, we can clearly see it. How
[6:20] Speaker 4: do we see it because we're watching it being spent
[6:23] Speaker 4: with a lot of these AI companies. There's a reason
[6:24] Speaker 4: why Broadcom is now almost a two trillion dollar company.
[6:28] Speaker 4: There's a reason why TSM is having this this triple
[6:33] Speaker 4: increase in demand. Where it's the reason why ASML is
[6:36] Speaker 4: shipping out machines to a point where they can't even
[6:38] Speaker 4: meet demand at this point.
[6:41] Speaker 3: Let's let's and and that's just from the AI infrastructure.
[6:43] Speaker 4: If we start talking about energy, if we start looking
[6:45] Speaker 4: at the ge Venova's and we're going to talk about
[6:47] Speaker 4: few other energy companies, this demand there, this demand for infrastructure.
[6:50] Speaker 3: There's a huge revolutionary demand that's happening.
[6:53] Speaker 4: That makes it a little bit different because of the
[6:55] Speaker 4: revenue that's being brought into these companies.
[6:57] Speaker 2: The question is why did they bust though?
[7:00] Speaker 3: Hey yo, but.
[7:07] Speaker 2: Reach out to your point. Though I would argue even
[7:09] Speaker 2: in this.
[7:12] Speaker 1: American pie.
[7:17] Speaker 2: Yo, I love the show, Yo, we need you. But
[7:28] Speaker 2: in this AI era, there's a few companies I think
[7:31] Speaker 2: that will suffer the same fate as some of the
[7:33] Speaker 2: ones Andy dot Com era. If you look, WorldCom was
[7:37] Speaker 2: a part of that, Excite, webbam e Toys, Pets, dot Com,
[7:41] Speaker 2: Geo Cities, Netscape, who's acquired by a O L. The
[7:45] Speaker 2: prominent players that came out of it was Amazon, Google
[7:49] Speaker 2: Video until they'll compact one under. So you're going to
[7:54] Speaker 2: have attrition like the premise of look look what you
[7:59] Speaker 2: just said?
[7:59] Speaker 3: You say in video? Google put an asterisk.
[8:03] Speaker 2: Tell more death and in that dot Com era and
[8:07] Speaker 2: a bunch of money wasted though there's a.
[8:09] Speaker 1: Lot there's a lot of death in this in this era,
[8:13] Speaker 1: the kream Warri's Gonna Ross. There was a lot of
[8:16] Speaker 1: great rappers of New York in the nineties, but there
[8:18] Speaker 1: was ten thousand rappers in New York that never made
[8:21] Speaker 1: That was a bust.
[8:22] Speaker 4: Is it is? Are you putting it in video because
[8:25] Speaker 4: of I p O during that era.
[8:27] Speaker 2: Because video was not a darling in the two thousands.
[8:30] Speaker 3: Right, it's not, it's not, but it came out of
[8:32] Speaker 3: that era.
[8:33] Speaker 2: It came out of it. You you can argue there
[8:36] Speaker 2: were probably four to five great companies versus my math.
[8:40] Speaker 2: Maybe I think it was one hundred and twenty two years.
[8:43] Speaker 3: What we're saying, the years are for the dot com
[8:45] Speaker 3: era ninety let's go.
[8:48] Speaker 2: Ninety six or two thousand or pre war tracing, so
[8:53] Speaker 2: two thousand and one.
[8:54] Speaker 4: Yeah, so then Google doesn't IPO to two thousand and six, right,
[8:59] Speaker 4: so we don't that metas twenty twelve.
[9:01] Speaker 1: Yeah, I didn't say what I'm saying, but medas a
[9:04] Speaker 1: social media company, Google is a dot com company.
[9:07] Speaker 3: But Google is the two thousand and six, So.
[9:10] Speaker 2: Technically is ninety five to two thousand. It was like
[9:12] Speaker 2: when we were in high school. Two thousand and one
[9:14] Speaker 2: is like Intel out there. Microsoft benefited the Microsoft IPO.
[9:21] Speaker 3: And here's the.
[9:23] Speaker 4: Other argument too, This revolution has helped those dot com
[9:28] Speaker 4: So a company.
[9:29] Speaker 2: Like Dell wasn't were left.
[9:31] Speaker 4: Dell has completely changed their business strategy. Right, And we
[9:36] Speaker 4: were talking about this company a year ago and I said, look,
[9:39] Speaker 4: this is not the Dell computers that you thought. This
[9:41] Speaker 4: is an AI story now right, they're doing the racks,
[9:44] Speaker 4: they're figuring out how they're going to manage and utilize
[9:48] Speaker 4: AI to the point now they hit.
[9:49] Speaker 3: A fifty two week high today.
[9:51] Speaker 4: This is that was a company that you wouldn't even
[9:54] Speaker 4: think of when you were talking and now there is
[9:57] Speaker 4: a craze so that some companies will not make it.
[9:59] Speaker 2: Right.
[9:59] Speaker 4: We saw all Buri saying, hey, we're going aim bubble.
[10:05] Speaker 2: Indicator.
[10:06] Speaker 3: That that doesn't help our argument.
[10:08] Speaker 4: Right when you're talking about a company that didn't really
[10:09] Speaker 4: move when they were selling their own product now going
[10:12] Speaker 4: into AI.
[10:13] Speaker 3: Okay, that there's a case there for that.
[10:16] Speaker 1: And then there's also geopolitical risk that we can't account for.

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