# Why the Market CRASHES Every February (And How to Profit)

An episode of [Earn Your Leisure](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1450211392), 15 Mar 2026, 10 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/8dbc4f54-a337-4481-9ef2-b355012b0a3d/fabcc7b5-82c5-49fe-9ee6-b40d00be394a/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eac4c628-29cb-469a-b5c8-b355012b0a48

History repeats itself. Discover the seasonal cycle that causes the stock market to dip every February and March, and how smart investors use this "pre-season" to build generational wealth. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: What's the traded tip of the week.
[0:03] Speaker 2: For all my investors who are worried about what's going
[0:06] Speaker 2: on in the market right now, I need you to
[0:08] Speaker 2: know that the market dropped February through March of twenty
[0:11] Speaker 2: twenty six this year, also twenty twenty five, twenty twenty three,
[0:17] Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, twenty twenty and twenty eighteen.
[0:22] Speaker 1: This is the time.
[0:23] Speaker 2: This is like preseason for investors in hedge funds before
[0:27] Speaker 2: the money comes in. I know there's a lot of
[0:29] Speaker 2: doom and gloom that's going on in the world right now,
[0:32] Speaker 2: but the cycle that you're seeing of the market being
[0:34] Speaker 2: down right now is normal. The cause in twenty three,
[0:40] Speaker 2: in twenty two and eighteen.
[0:41] Speaker 1: May be different.
[0:43] Speaker 2: But every year in the last fifteen years, I need
[0:46] Speaker 2: you expect for, just like we have that drop in
[0:49] Speaker 2: late July August, that we have February through March. Until
[0:53] Speaker 2: that capital starts to flowing that third week of March,
[0:57] Speaker 2: we're going to be down. Stop worrying. It's going to
[1:00] Speaker 2: be okay. It's giving you a time, a generational time
[1:03] Speaker 2: to buy. Everything is going to be fine. The market
[1:06] Speaker 2: normally goes down in February.
[1:08] Speaker 1: In March, yeah, that's important.
[1:12] Speaker 3: I love the historical perspective because it gives context to it.
[1:15] Speaker 3: I think when you add into what's happened in March,
[1:17] Speaker 3: we got caught druple witching. Right the third the first
[1:20] Speaker 3: quarter is ending at the end of March. You got
[1:23] Speaker 3: the third week of the quarter in the last month,
[1:26] Speaker 3: which would be on March. So that's going to happen
[1:28] Speaker 3: as well. But on the other side of it, right
[1:31] Speaker 3: when we look at the best six months to invest
[1:33] Speaker 3: or trade.
[1:34] Speaker 1: Usually April at the top.
[1:37] Speaker 3: And so when you see you see opportunities like we
[1:40] Speaker 3: saw last week, and maybe you saw something earlier today,
[1:43] Speaker 3: we'll talk about it a little bit later. You positioning
[1:46] Speaker 3: yourself to be in these spots when April comes. We
[1:49] Speaker 3: saw it last year, right when we were Liberation Day.
[1:51] Speaker 3: That happened in April, and then we saw the rebound
[1:53] Speaker 3: in the best six months after that.
[1:55] Speaker 1: Yeah, that felt like an anomaly.
[1:57] Speaker 3: But if you look historically, April, May June have been
[2:00] Speaker 3: solid month that second quarter of the year. Like you said,
[2:03] Speaker 3: deal flows start to come in a little bit differently.
[2:05] Speaker 1: People's quarterly report has changed.
[2:07] Speaker 3: The end of the year's changed, sure, which is something
[2:10] Speaker 3: that we actually we found out about actually last week
[2:13] Speaker 3: it was like yo, you set when your year end
[2:16] Speaker 3: is right depending on when you created your business. So
[2:19] Speaker 3: just having historical contact is important, and understanding that we've
[2:24] Speaker 3: been here before is important, and understanding like look, if
[2:27] Speaker 3: you're going to invest, do it regularly, but keep these
[2:31] Speaker 3: things in mind before you make a move.
[2:34] Speaker 2: And secondly, anytime that the VIC skits above twenty seven
[2:37] Speaker 2: and normally takes anywhere from a month and a half
[2:40] Speaker 2: to two and a half months for it to go
[2:42] Speaker 2: back underneath twenty one, once again, the most important chart
[2:46] Speaker 2: if you're going to be looking at it from a
[2:48] Speaker 2: technical standpoint that cannot be manipulated. We'll talk about manipulation
[2:52] Speaker 2: later is the VICS. So usually for me two months,
[2:57] Speaker 2: I should expect the VIC should be back around twenty
[3:01] Speaker 2: which will lead into that April scenario that you talked
[3:04] Speaker 2: about as well. Block out the noise, like we told
[3:08] Speaker 2: you last week, where oil would go when to be concerned,
[3:12] Speaker 2: But keep your eyes on the VIX and if the
[3:15] Speaker 2: VIX hits twenty seven or thirty or thirty five, that's
[3:19] Speaker 2: a good time to buy into the top ten stocks
[3:21] Speaker 2: and you'll be a Okay, yeah.
[3:23] Speaker 1: We saw the VIX hit thirty six today.
[3:25] Speaker 3: I think it closed that twenty five, which was a
[3:27] Speaker 3: huge swing ten points.
[3:28] Speaker 1: On the Vix's hell of a turnaround. That's pretty pretty abnormal.
[3:33] Speaker 1: But it happened. Yeah, it happened.
[3:35] Speaker 3: But like you said, if you were here last week,
[3:37] Speaker 3: you heard those numbers. You heard ninety three fifty. I
[3:39] Speaker 3: talked about one ten and one twenty, and we got
[3:42] Speaker 3: all those ranges that quick were out of them interesting times.
[3:47] Speaker 2: And that's why I kept saying or trade is over.
[3:49] Speaker 1: It's priced in.
[3:50] Speaker 2: I don't know when you guys want to talk about it,
[3:52] Speaker 2: but man, this is a different time geopolitically in terms
[3:57] Speaker 2: of the market. They turned the crude market into a
[4:00] Speaker 2: meme stock by the time you get to chasing that move.
[4:04] Speaker 2: I'm not hating or gatekeeping. You just didn't listen the
[4:07] Speaker 2: first time shot and told you what to investor in
[4:10] Speaker 2: from day one, Troy told you, I told you am Jin, Lily,
[4:13] Speaker 2: cost Co, Walmart, AMD and Video.
[4:15] Speaker 1: Those are all my picture early on.
[4:17] Speaker 2: They're still there, but you are now being used for
[4:22] Speaker 2: the exit liquidity for the hedge funds and they're playing
[4:25] Speaker 2: in y'all faces and there's nothing you can do about it.
[4:28] Speaker 2: You have to be smarter than ever. They realize that
[4:31] Speaker 2: this class of investors is better than ever, and now
[4:34] Speaker 2: they're using that against you and getting on social media
[4:38] Speaker 2: and people saying oil is going to go to one fifty.
[4:40] Speaker 2: Do you know that the last time that oil was
[4:42] Speaker 2: that two hundred was nineteen twenty nine. For every ten
[4:45] Speaker 2: dollars move that we have and crewed gasoline is going
[4:49] Speaker 2: to go up by thirty five cent, that will cripple
[4:51] Speaker 2: the American economy and it's already in shambles as is.
[4:55] Speaker 1: So did it feel like a test like the past couple?
[4:59] Speaker 3: I mean, if you're on social media, if you're watching
[5:01] Speaker 3: the news, you hear all, you hear all, you keep
[5:02] Speaker 3: hearing all, you keep hearing your gas price is going
[5:04] Speaker 3: to go up. For the beginner, like that intermediate, maybe
[5:10] Speaker 3: that investor to retail investor that hasn't been through it,
[5:13] Speaker 3: hasn't heard it.
[5:14] Speaker 1: Did you feel like it? Maybe it was a test
[5:16] Speaker 1: to see what will they do?
[5:18] Speaker 3: Will they say, hey, we're going to buy future contracts,
[5:21] Speaker 3: want to get into one hundred or options contracts, want
[5:23] Speaker 3: it for it to get to one hundred. And then
[5:25] Speaker 3: you're sitting there Sunday night and you're like, Wow, we're
[5:28] Speaker 3: at one seventeen, and then you wake up at nine
[5:30] Speaker 3: to thirty one and you're back at ninety four ninety seven.
[5:33] Speaker 2: Did you feel like a test? I said it since
[5:36] Speaker 2: episode seventy. Never in the history of American capitalism do
[5:39] Speaker 2: they come to black people and say this is an
[5:41] Speaker 2: investment to make. First, you gotta be as cool as
[5:45] Speaker 2: Rashad is, sitting calm and comfortable and chill. That's the
[5:49] Speaker 2: biggest lesson in investing is that investors love certainty. But
[5:53] Speaker 2: when you have everyone saying it's going to one fifty
[5:56] Speaker 2: two hundred, and then people are getting excited, and then
[5:59] Speaker 2: you're like, Eaton's gate cheeping. I'm like, I'm trying to
[6:02] Speaker 2: protect you if you haven't traded the crew. Like even
[6:06] Speaker 2: US crew contracts used to cost eight thousand per contract.
[6:11] Speaker 2: As of last week, the twenty four thousand, seven hundred
[6:14] Speaker 2: and thirty seven fifty for one contract. It's not even
[6:18] Speaker 2: the best use of capital. The VICS, which pays five
[6:21] Speaker 2: times more, is twenty thousand per contract. So all of
[6:27] Speaker 2: a sudden, last or two months ago, it was gold
[6:30] Speaker 2: and everyone wanted the gold. Move now became crewe, just
[6:34] Speaker 2: like Trump is having a different target for every month.
[6:37] Speaker 2: They're going to push a different financial instrument in front
[6:40] Speaker 2: of your face every month.
[6:42] Speaker 1: You gotta stick to the four that you know.
[6:43] Speaker 2: And if you haven't traded crew, if you just before,
[6:46] Speaker 2: now's not the time to play.
[6:49] Speaker 1: No boy. Yeah, well, let's talk about this.
[6:53] Speaker 4: JP Morgan predicts that SMP could fall ten because of
[6:59] Speaker 4: the Iran war and rising oil prices. So ten percent
[7:04] Speaker 4: correction is what JP Morgan is is calling for.
[7:06] Speaker 1: Potentially, what do you think if we fall ten percent?
[7:11] Speaker 2: It won't be because of the Iran issue solely. We're
[7:16] Speaker 2: not talking enough about the credit private credit market issue.
[7:20] Speaker 2: I think this is one of the biggest bubbles that's
[7:22] Speaker 2: not being talked about. When I was talking about on
[7:25] Speaker 2: stock Club call, people are asking like, Okay, is this
[7:27] Speaker 2: a retail issue because some retail investors have access to
[7:31] Speaker 2: private credit and private equity. Now KKR, Apollo arees, those
[7:39] Speaker 2: are not retail platforms.
[7:41] Speaker 1: Those are institutional.
[7:43] Speaker 2: So blue Out may be down sixty three percent, which
[7:45] Speaker 2: is retail facing. But when you see that aries Blackrock,
[7:51] Speaker 2: like black Rocks stopped allowing people to withdraw money, not
[7:56] Speaker 2: the black Rock, but that's the first Canaria in a
[8:01] Speaker 2: cold moon where you're like, oh, shit, is tougher than
[8:04] Speaker 2: what you really think it is, and that what it's
[8:06] Speaker 2: reporting to be. So I think will it be a
[8:09] Speaker 2: combination of factors, yes, But Iran, I think it's probably
[8:12] Speaker 2: the smallest issue on the table right now as to
[8:15] Speaker 2: why the stock market would drop. I think there is
[8:17] Speaker 2: a lot of issues around the circular investment, private credit.
[8:22] Speaker 2: And then also the job market is in shambles and
[8:25] Speaker 2: no one wants to talk about it, and they keep
[8:26] Speaker 2: revising these numbers in line about these numbers. So I
[8:28] Speaker 2: don't think we have gotten the honest job report in
[8:31] Speaker 2: the last two and a half years. Well that's what
[8:33] Speaker 2: I was gonna say.
[8:33] Speaker 4: As far as the job yes, there's a variety of
[8:37] Speaker 4: different things. The job market is in shambles, and it's
[8:42] Speaker 4: even worse, and it's even worse than what's being reported,
[8:45] Speaker 4: because you got people that's not even looking for jobs anymore.
[8:49] Speaker 4: And then you got a variety of young people that
[8:50] Speaker 4: don't even know where to start to look for jobs.
[8:53] Speaker 4: So they're not necessarily following unemployment because they just graduate
[8:57] Speaker 4: from college and they still trying to figure it out.
[9:00] Speaker 4: They're just at home with their parents just in the
[9:02] Speaker 4: basement watching Andrew Tait all day. Yeah, credit credit card
[9:08] Speaker 4: debt all time high when you look at I mean,
[9:12] Speaker 4: they quietly about to have another government shut down TSA.
[9:14] Speaker 4: He said, get to the airport five hours early because
[9:18] Speaker 4: they can't they can't pay TSA. Five hours is crazy.
[9:21] Speaker 4: You can't even check your back more than three hours.
[9:23] Speaker 1: Yeah. Housing, this is the first.
[9:27] Speaker 4: Time I think in over ten years the rate of
[9:31] Speaker 4: houses that's being sold right now at like a ten
[9:34] Speaker 4: year low. So that means that people are not spending
[9:38] Speaker 4: money on real estate in the same way.
[9:40] Speaker 1: Or can afford to.
[9:42] Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the list goes on so domestically, there's
[9:47] Speaker 4: a lot of signs that points to a pretty weakening
[9:54] Speaker 4: economy for the average person.
[9:58] Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I I agree with a lot of
[10:00] Speaker 3: the points. I agree that, well, first, ten percent is
[10:06] Speaker 3: pretty normal. First, and normals like if we pull back
[10:09] Speaker 3: ten percent, we shouldn't feel like, oh my gosh, our
[10:13] Speaker 3: account is about to go to shambles. Not ten percent
[10:15] Speaker 3: would be an actually welcomed correction.

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