# Investor Daily: Why Novo Nordisk Can’t Beat Eli Lilly - The Pharma Drug War

An episode of [Earn Your Leisure](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1450211392), 1 Dec 2025, 7:56.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/8dbc4f54-a337-4481-9ef2-b355012b0a3d/af81a669-9af1-469c-9ac6-b3a6010330d0/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eac4c628-29cb-469a-b5c8-b355012b0a48

In this Market Mondays clip, Rashad Bilal and Ian Dunlap dive deep into the recent struggles of Novo Nordisk and explain why the stock’s steep drop isn’t an opportunity to buy. They break down Novo’s missed Alzheimer’s drug, compare Novo's margins and performance to Eli Lilly, and discuss the key issues behind GLP-1 drugs that have led to Novo’s downfall. Rashad Bilal likens the Novo-Lilly rivalry to Meta vs. Snap, highlighting that Novo simply doesn’t have Lily’s innovation or executive management. With Novo giving up nearly 75% of its gains and falling back to pre-2021 levels, the hosts consider the company’s future and why Lily is “the Nvidia of healthcare”—an industry monster that’s hard to defeat. Ian Dunlap adds insight into the pharmaceutical business cycle, the challenges of non-American firms in a US-centric market, and why breakthroughs in pill-form GLP drugs and healthcare plan adoption give Lily the edge. Together, they explore why weight loss drugs may not provide sustainable growth for Novo and why savvy investors should be cautious. If you want an unfiltered, expert take on the pharma giants and what’s ahead for GLP-1 drug makers, watch this clip for real insights you won’t find anywhere else. *Hashtags:* #MarketMondays #NovoNordisk #EliLilly #PharmaStocks #Investing #WeightLossDrugs #GLP1 #HealthcareInvesting #StockMarketAnalysis #RashadBilal #IanDunlap See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

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[0:43] Speaker 2: Novo is going in the opposite direction. Novo almost as
[0:50] Speaker 2: forty fifty two week low. So what is the deal
[0:53] Speaker 2: with Novo? Is this opportunity to buy Novo?
[0:55] Speaker 3: Hell No, Herald I didn't look like Jordan when Jordan
[1:02] Speaker 3: was out of the league playing baseball because David started
[1:04] Speaker 3: making them sit down. But when Jordan came back, heromined
[1:07] Speaker 3: shot the hair on his family because I don't watch
[1:09] Speaker 3: but no Novo. They missed on an Alzheimer's drug and
[1:14] Speaker 3: it's the crazy part that's interesting. They've fallen this much.
[1:17] Speaker 3: And isn't Novo's operate or net margin a gross margin
[1:22] Speaker 3: eighty nine percent? Like, how do you have a gross
[1:24] Speaker 3: margin net wide? And that stock does that? No, Lily
[1:28] Speaker 3: is a one of one company, and I have no
[1:33] Speaker 3: bias towards any of these, but Lily's just just is
[1:40] Speaker 3: it better company. This is like almost comparing Meta versus Snap.
[1:44] Speaker 3: I like Evan, I like to got glasses and when
[1:47] Speaker 3: the girls had the little filtered it's the fucking eight
[1:49] Speaker 3: years and it was fire. But they're not Meta. Novo's
[1:53] Speaker 3: not Lily. It's not I think if you look at
[1:57] Speaker 3: an executive management, drug the results of the drugs, the
[2:01] Speaker 3: pipeline that they have for the next five years, the
[2:04] Speaker 3: return on assets, return on equity. There's no point where
[2:08] Speaker 3: you look at Novo and say these two are the same.
[2:13] Speaker 3: It had a great moment, great, but it's over with.
[2:17] Speaker 3: I'm not saying that the company's dead. They're not going
[2:19] Speaker 3: to be delisted, but would they ever be Lily were
[2:21] Speaker 3: engine No.
[2:24] Speaker 1: No, Yes, it's doesn't look great. It doesn't look great.
[2:32] Speaker 1: They you know, ozempic was is a thing. It on
[2:36] Speaker 1: became the band aid of its adhesives, right, but you
[2:42] Speaker 1: don't have a mode on that that drug like they
[2:47] Speaker 1: So when zip bound comes out, other glps come out
[2:52] Speaker 1: less lesser known, even some white label GLP comes out.
[2:57] Speaker 1: That's going to cut into your business model. And again,
[3:00] Speaker 1: when you have an administration that is held doound on
[3:03] Speaker 1: making sure that American companies strives and going out an
[3:06] Speaker 1: American company, Well, every fifth ad when you watch Good
[3:10] Speaker 1: Morning in America, when you watch the Today's show, it's
[3:14] Speaker 1: going to be that American company tomorrow when you watch
[3:17] Speaker 1: the American America and you're like, damn sure it was
[3:18] Speaker 1: right that they're going to make sure that they're going
[3:22] Speaker 1: to promote lily and because it has obviously a superior product,
[3:26] Speaker 1: but it has the motive of having to not rely
[3:29] Speaker 1: on one thing, the Alzheimer's pilled. This is like the
[3:34] Speaker 1: third I feel like this is like the third time
[3:36] Speaker 1: that this has not worked.
[3:37] Speaker 3: That worked yep.
[3:38] Speaker 1: I don't know how many chances they're going to get
[3:40] Speaker 1: to not have it work. The stock is now trading
[3:43] Speaker 1: at the five five years ago it was that in
[3:47] Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, it was trading at forty two dollars
[3:50] Speaker 1: and the SOCC is currently sitting here five years later
[3:53] Speaker 1: at forty five. Had a crazy run up obviously during
[3:56] Speaker 1: the GLP phase up to one forty five forty seven,
[3:59] Speaker 1: and now we're right back down to where we were
[4:01] Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one. Gonna be tough. Would I would
[4:06] Speaker 1: definitely not invest in this.
[4:08] Speaker 3: If you look since inception when an ip or their
[4:11] Speaker 3: all time lowest two dollars and seventy four percent. Since
[4:14] Speaker 3: the high, they're almost have given up seventy five percent
[4:16] Speaker 3: of all those games I put in stock Club earlier.
[4:18] Speaker 3: Ten reasons why they have underperformed, but I'll give three here.
[4:23] Speaker 3: Through the expectations for the GFP one was too high.
[4:26] Speaker 3: The manufacturing bottlenecks and capacity limits were another issue, and
[4:31] Speaker 3: then also too Like outside of Lily, the weight loss
[4:36] Speaker 3: drug cycle of Boom and Bus has always been a
[4:39] Speaker 3: short cycle of winds and extreme losses like if you.
[4:43] Speaker 1: Go back to.
[4:45] Speaker 3: The ally drug like this category of weight loss drugs
[4:49] Speaker 3: has always had some issues, whether it was with a
[4:52] Speaker 3: veteran or heart issues or gut issues. This isn't a
[4:57] Speaker 3: sustainable product line that will work long enough to allow
[5:01] Speaker 3: you to build a business around it, to be able
[5:03] Speaker 3: to be okay, no, and then weight loss thows after
[5:08] Speaker 3: the two years. So in the best case scenario, after
[5:11] Speaker 3: two years, it's the end of the product cycle. So
[5:14] Speaker 3: the lifetime customer value is lower than every other competitor
[5:18] Speaker 3: that you have for other drugs that are doing incredibly well.
[5:21] Speaker 3: Like literally, is Damnar the n video of healthcare. You're
[5:25] Speaker 3: you're fighting a monster that cannot be defeated.
[5:28] Speaker 1: This might not be one of those situations where number
[5:30] Speaker 1: two is actually they already announced that they're they're trying
[5:36] Speaker 1: to get GLPS to be a part of healthcare plans.
[5:40] Speaker 1: They've already and we talked about this a few weeks ago.
[5:43] Speaker 1: They're dropping the price costs over the first six months.
[5:46] Speaker 1: Must stay right that they're trying to do all the
[5:49] Speaker 1: things I think when you have a pill form, because
[5:52] Speaker 1: that's the thing, right, like who gets to the g
[5:54] Speaker 1: LP pill first? And when you have a pill form
[6:00] Speaker 1: fail for a different drug, well, that puts uh that
[6:04] Speaker 1: red flat. Hey, this is another pill that has failed
[6:06] Speaker 1: for them, that's failed for them, We'll get to it first.
[6:10] Speaker 1: My assumption would probably be literally gets to the pill
[6:12] Speaker 1: form first, and that that changes a lot of things
[6:14] Speaker 1: into and if they can get the right price obviously
[6:16] Speaker 1: put that part of people's healthcare plans. Earners. What's up?
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