# Micron’s December 9 Deadline,What Investors Need to Know

An episode of [Earn Your Leisure](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1450211392), 19 Oct 2026, 11 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/8dbc4f54-a337-4481-9ef2-b355012b0a3d/cf85975c-36e2-46a3-819d-b4e6009ff5d9/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=eac4c628-29cb-469a-b5c8-b355012b0a48

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## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: Let's talk about this. Let's talk about the AI sector
[0:02] Speaker 1: as a whole. It's been back and forth, trending, high, low. Sandisk,
[0:10] Speaker 1: we talked about that. Sandisk is almost $ 1, 000 down from
[0:13] Speaker 1: its all-time high. So it's been a little turbulence. It's
[0:18] Speaker 1: been turbulent. So let's talk about Micron specifically and then
[0:22] Speaker 1: the AI trade as a whole.
[0:24] Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to unpack this a little bit. Y'all
[0:26] Speaker 2: can chime in if you'd like. I'd appreciate it if
[0:28] Speaker 2: you did, actually. So last week, I left everybody off
[0:31] Speaker 2: with that December 9th date, and we're going to come
[0:34] Speaker 2: back to it. When I woke up this morning, I
[0:36] Speaker 2: knew that I'd get a bunch of text messages and
[0:38] Speaker 2: calls about, what's up with Micron? Why is it down
[0:41] Speaker 2: $ 21 pre-market? And then, you know, financial times. They reported
[0:47] Speaker 2: that CXMT, the Chinese semiconductor company, the CEO said that
[0:52] Speaker 2: they're going to be releasing their, I want to call
[0:56] Speaker 2: it a DRAM, chip, but it's kind of like DRAM adjacent.
[1:02] Speaker 2: And by that, I mean, yes, it is technically DRAM,
[1:05] Speaker 2: but what its purpose is for are very different. And
[1:08] Speaker 2: so when we think DRAM, specifically our audience, for sure,
[1:11] Speaker 2: you think Micron, you think SK Hynix, you think Samsung,
[1:15] Speaker 2: you're thinking high bandwidth memory. And so we saw all
[1:19] Speaker 2: those semiconductor companies, specifically in the memory sector, pull back
[1:22] Speaker 2: on that news.
[1:22] Speaker 1: Why?
[1:23] Speaker 2: Well, they're saying, hey, we're going to change the way
[1:26] Speaker 2: that memory chips are going to be organized, right? We're
[1:29] Speaker 2: going to make a smaller wafer that can hold more memory.
[1:34] Speaker 2: But what is the memory for, right? The memory that
[1:36] Speaker 2: CXMT is making is for smartphones, for PCs, and consumer electronics.
[1:41] Speaker 2: And why is that important? Well, the second piece of
[1:44] Speaker 2: what I'm about to say makes it important, right? CXMT
[1:47] Speaker 2: has been banned and blacklisted by the United States government
[1:51] Speaker 2: and military. Now, A few months ago, we talked about
[1:54] Speaker 2: them because they were in the news saying that they
[1:56] Speaker 2: had a new outlook on memory. Apple had just heard
[2:01] Speaker 2: that memory prices were going to go up. They said
[2:03] Speaker 2: Micron has raised them. They said, can we test? And
[2:06] Speaker 2: this was the whole issue with Trump and Tim Cook
[2:09] Speaker 2: at the time going back and forth. And eventually, you know,
[2:12] Speaker 2: Apple said, okay, we'll go with what everybody else is doing. Meanwhile,
[2:16] Speaker 2: CXMT was still making things. Problem is this, right? When
[2:20] Speaker 2: we hear news like that, you say, okay, Well, and
[2:23] Speaker 2: I put this in the university earlier. If you think
[2:26] Speaker 2: about CXMT in terms of what they're building, who are
[2:29] Speaker 2: they going to sell it to, right? Are they selling
[2:31] Speaker 2: it to data centers? Because that's where we're seeing the
[2:33] Speaker 2: highest growth when it comes to high bandwidth memory. Well,
[2:36] Speaker 2: they can't sell it to the United States, which is
[2:38] Speaker 2: the largest concentration of data centers being built. I think
[2:41] Speaker 2: like 71% of data centers in the world are being
[2:44] Speaker 2: built in the United States. So you lose that as
[2:47] Speaker 2: a target audience. Who do you have if you're that company? Well,
[2:51] Speaker 2: you have domestic China, right? And so you got to
[2:53] Speaker 2: look at the developments of China and where they're going
[2:56] Speaker 2: in terms of memory, specifically high bandwidth. This is not that, right?
[3:01] Speaker 2: Like they can build out and build out the infrastructure
[3:03] Speaker 2: to get to high bandwidth memory and using it at
[3:07] Speaker 2: the same width, but that's going to take time, four
[3:09] Speaker 2: to five years at minimum. And so the news is
[3:12] Speaker 2: kind of like, okay, they said they're doing something. It
[3:15] Speaker 2: really isn't relevant to what Micron's doing or SK Hynix
[3:18] Speaker 2: or Samsung's doing right now. But, here goes that crack, right?
[3:21] Speaker 2: We talked about the high concentration earlier. Here comes a
[3:24] Speaker 2: crack and here comes the news. I think the biggest
[3:26] Speaker 2: story is the December 9th story. And why we talked
[3:29] Speaker 2: about it is because, and I'm telling you right now,
[3:31] Speaker 2: December 9th, 2026 is the second anniversary of the CHIPS Act,
[3:36] Speaker 2: which Micron agreed to during, in 2024, where they got
[3:41] Speaker 2: 6.1 billion to build out infrastructure for their business. Now,
[3:46] Speaker 2: from that time, now I got to give you the
[3:47] Speaker 2: stock price at the time. Micron was trading at $ 80
[3:51] Speaker 2: at this time. Micron is now, well, I mean, it
[3:56] Speaker 2: touched 1,200 at its all-time high. I know we're trading
[4:00] Speaker 2: a little over 1,000 right now. And so at that time,
[4:03] Speaker 2: a part of the agreement for the 6.1 billion was
[4:05] Speaker 2: that they could not buy back shares, right? So you
[4:09] Speaker 2: hear a lot of times when companies have large operating profits,
[4:13] Speaker 2: they'll say, okay, we're going to do a stock buyback.
[4:16] Speaker 2: Apple's done it, Nvidia's done it. What does that mean?
[4:18] Speaker 2: I'm going to buy back shares, meaning that the existing
[4:20] Speaker 2: shares that are out in the world, they now go
[4:22] Speaker 2: up in value. And so you start to see companies
[4:24] Speaker 2: shoot up, right, when they have buyback shares. So on
[4:26] Speaker 2: December 9th, that is going to expire, meaning Micron can
[4:32] Speaker 2: now buy back their shares. They couldn't do it for
[4:35] Speaker 2: two years. Now the CFO of Micron said that they're
[4:39] Speaker 2: gonna give 100% of their operating margins back to shareholders,
[4:44] Speaker 2: which means in turn, huge buyback of shares, which you
[4:48] Speaker 2: would think would have Micron's stock price appreciate pretty quickly.
[4:54] Speaker 2: Problem is this, there's a strike that is happening or
[4:57] Speaker 2: a pending strike. Now, this is something we really gotta
[5:01] Speaker 2: pay attention to because obviously Micron still operates in Taiwan.
[5:05] Speaker 2: The two unions in Taiwan, which has about, I think,
[5:08] Speaker 2: 8,000 employees, they're preparing to say, if we can't figure
[5:12] Speaker 2: out something by October 22nd, they're willing to walk off
[5:14] Speaker 2: the site. You lose that many workers at a plant
[5:18] Speaker 2: of that magnitude at a time like this in high demand,
[5:21] Speaker 2: that disrupts the business. Here's what they want. This is crazy.
[5:26] Speaker 2: They want 15%. I want to read this correctly. They
[5:29] Speaker 2: want 15% of Micron's operating profits set aside permanently for
[5:34] Speaker 2: quarterly bonuses. This is what they're saying. Micron has offered
[5:39] Speaker 2: a one-time payment of $ 31, 000 to the Taiwanese employees. That's
[5:45] Speaker 2: a huge gap. Let's do the math on it really quickly.
[5:48] Speaker 2: The operating profit margin this quarter for Micron was $ 50 billion.
[5:52] Speaker 2: If you divide that by the amount of employees, that
[5:54] Speaker 2: would be $ 2 million a quarter. $ 2 million a quarter.
[5:58] Speaker 2: That would bring that 87% that we used to talk
[6:01] Speaker 2: about in terms of operating profit margin down to $ 72.
[6:05] Speaker 2: Why is that important? Well, if they have to pay
[6:08] Speaker 2: employees 50% of the operating margin, and they just talked
[6:12] Speaker 2: about spending 100% of that margin to buy back shares,
[6:16] Speaker 2: that means that they have less money to buy back shares,
[6:19] Speaker 2: which means that the stock price is not going to
[6:21] Speaker 2: move the way people thought.
[6:22] Speaker 3: Deplete it.
[6:23] Speaker 1: Right?
[6:23] Speaker 2: It's going to deplete it. So you got two things moving, right?
[6:26] Speaker 2: You got the CXMT news, you got the strike, and
[6:29] Speaker 2: you got the buyback program on December 9th. Somehow, in
[6:33] Speaker 2: some way, this is why you're seeing Micron float between
[6:36] Speaker 2: 1,000 to 1,100, 1,000 to 1,100, and it can't get
[6:41] Speaker 2: quite past that 1,100 mark and get back up to
[6:43] Speaker 2: its all-time high because the one thing we know for
[6:46] Speaker 2: sure that the market does not appreciate or like is uncertainty.
[6:51] Speaker 2: And as long as there's uncertainty, you're going to start
[6:53] Speaker 2: seeing it move in this volatile 1,100 back to 1,000. Today,
[6:57] Speaker 2: it got down to 979. I saw it. Trust me,
[7:00] Speaker 2: I saw it. My account saw it as well. But,
[7:02] Speaker 2: the long-term story is still there, right? Will they figure
[7:06] Speaker 2: the strike out? They have to. This is not even
[7:07] Speaker 2: something that's going to be optional. In fact, Samsung, if
[7:10] Speaker 2: you remember in May, went through the same exact process.
[7:14] Speaker 2: People saw it. They said, all right, we hold power
[7:18] Speaker 2: as the people, as the employees. Look how much money
[7:20] Speaker 2: this company is making. We need to walk out on this.
[7:22] Speaker 2: They solved it before they went on the 18-day strike.
[7:24] Speaker 2: If you go back to May and look at what
[7:25] Speaker 2: Samsung and SK Hynix and Micron were trading at, look
[7:28] Speaker 2: what happens from like May 1st to June 25th to
[7:31] Speaker 2: all those companies. once that gets figured out. I think
[7:34] Speaker 2: we're on the cusp of that, right? You got obviously
[7:38] Speaker 2: domestic things we have here, midterms, treasury yields going up,
[7:41] Speaker 2: that doesn't help technology. So all these things, this feels
[7:43] Speaker 2: like a perfect storm and still this company has remained
[7:48] Speaker 2: resilient through it all, right? Still, I mean, when I
[7:51] Speaker 2: looked at where the support is at, it touched its
[7:53] Speaker 2: 20 day. I mean, it's very far off from its 200.
[7:56] Speaker 2: I don't even want to look at the 400. It's
[7:58] Speaker 2: out of play at this point, but These are the
[8:01] Speaker 2: stories that you pay attention to, right? There's not going
[8:03] Speaker 2: to be one piece of writing that's going to tell
[8:05] Speaker 2: you all this. And so I said, look, Shadi, let
[8:08] Speaker 2: me at least give some context to it today. So
[8:10] Speaker 2: that's what we're looking at when we're talking about Micron.
[8:12] Speaker 2: Do we still believe in it? 1,000%. Is it still
[8:15] Speaker 2: going to have an incredible 2027? Absolutely. If we get
[8:20] Speaker 2: through these turmoil winds, if you hear that the strike
[8:22] Speaker 2: is over, right, you might want to start reallocating things.
[8:27] Speaker 2: Because if that strike ends... And December 9th comes, that
[8:30] Speaker 2: means that buyback is going to be coming as well.
[8:33] Speaker 3: I'm going to say this. Even if the strike don't happen,
[8:37] Speaker 3: this stock is a rock star stock. And we opened
[8:39] Speaker 3: up this year at $ 2.
[8:40] Speaker 2: 95.
[8:40] Speaker 3: It's currently at $ 9.
[8:44] Speaker 2: 39.
[8:44] Speaker 3: So these situations have happened before with a lot of
[8:48] Speaker 3: tech companies that have had exuberant gains. This happened with Microsoft.
[8:52] Speaker 3: There's been issues with Apple, et cetera. They'll resolve and
[8:55] Speaker 3: get a deal. Going back to my point, though. When
[8:58] Speaker 3: you have a run like this, a lot of times
[9:01] Speaker 3: people are getting off of generational companies worried about short
[9:08] Speaker 3: weekly or monthly kerfuffles in the market. It's one of
[9:12] Speaker 3: the biggest mistakes I think you can make if you
[9:14] Speaker 3: were on this train to then get off of it.
[9:17] Speaker 3: Stock club don't kill me.
[9:19] Speaker 2: I'll give a couple of prices.
[9:22] Speaker 1: I had.
[9:24] Speaker 3: For the month of October, and potentially going.
[9:27] Speaker 4: To $ 820. 87 as an area that I won't give our
[9:33] Speaker 4: low-to-bill price. But the thing is, when the stock goes
[9:36] Speaker 4: up 5x or 6x, you then have to know the
[9:38] Speaker 4: math of how much it could pull back even without
[9:43] Speaker 4: the political news.
[9:44] Speaker 2: This happened with NVIDIA.
[9:45] Speaker 3: When NVIDIA got on an incredible tear, and when it
[9:48] Speaker 3: started to come down, and it happened with Microsoft earlier
[9:51] Speaker 3: this year, people start calling for the death of these companies,
[9:54] Speaker 3: and I think it's a tremendous mistake. Um, this company
[9:59] Speaker 3: is too valuable, not only to the sector that is in,
[10:02] Speaker 3: but the country that is in, and it's too important
[10:06] Speaker 3: to the AI story. Um, for everyone here in stock club,
[10:08] Speaker 3: if it falls to, uh, market monies, I mean, nine, 1884,
[10:14] Speaker 3: I would like to take a position. And then if
[10:16] Speaker 3: it goes to the price that I called earlier, uh,
[10:18] Speaker 3: I would love it, but I think too many people
[10:20] Speaker 3: are getting off on wishing for the death of these companies.
[10:25] Speaker 3: And even the move today, and I'm like, that's not
[10:27] Speaker 3: really a.
[10:28] Speaker 2: Parabolic move to the downside.
[10:30] Speaker 3: If it's up 7X over the last two years, continue
[10:35] Speaker 3: to hold. Too many of us are playing short-term gains.
[10:40] Speaker 3: Like even when I do the, if you bought this
[10:42] Speaker 3: stock five years ago, it would be up 17. This
[10:45] Speaker 3: is one of those companies. The best of this company
[10:48] Speaker 3: has not, we've not seen the best of this company yet,
[10:52] Speaker 3: and it's going to continue to print high gains, hold
[10:56] Speaker 3: for the long term. I've given two prices. If I
[10:59] Speaker 3: made you money, please put yes in chat. Just like
[11:01] Speaker 3: when I call NVIDIA falling to 89 a couple years ago,
[11:05] Speaker 3: this is one of those moments you're going to be
[11:07] Speaker 3: able to buy and then hold it for a long
[11:09] Speaker 3: period of time and make some more money from it.
[11:11] Speaker 2: Don't get off this train yet.

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