# 1100: Mailbag - Kaelon Black, Model Discrepancies, and More

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 15 May 2026, 21 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/1c06dfc3-30a7-4a4b-97fe-b44a00ecea36/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

Is Kaelon Black a bad prospect? Why do models seem to disagree on Jordyn Tyson this year? Is Jonathon Brooks a solid sleeper pick this year? Those questions — and more — are answered on this week's mailbag episode. Make sure to check out LateRound.com to order the updated 2026 Late-Round Prospect Guide. Want to get dynasty rankings while accessing the amazing Late-Round community on Discord? Become a Late-Round member today. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: This is the Late with your host JJ zachera JJ
[0:06] Speaker 1: zacher reson what's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in
[0:14] Speaker 1: this episode eleven hundred of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
[0:19] Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in. You guys know it by now,
[0:22] Speaker 1: but the Late Round Prospect Guide is still available to
[0:24] Speaker 1: purchase on Lateround dot com. It's got everything you need
[0:27] Speaker 1: to crush your rookie drafts and it's very much analytically driven.
[0:31] Speaker 1: In the guide, you can learn about what goes into
[0:33] Speaker 1: the zapp models. You get ZAP scores for these prospects,
[0:36] Speaker 1: you get my rankings. There's year two profiles, let's not
[0:38] Speaker 1: forget about those, and so much more. Check it all
[0:42] Speaker 1: out over on lateround dot com. Now let's get to
[0:44] Speaker 1: these mailbag questions. The first question this week is from
[0:49] Speaker 1: my friend Joey Wright at the Joey Wright on Twitter.
[0:52] Speaker 1: He says, what is your process on Klon Black? Now,
[0:57] Speaker 1: without a doubt, Joey's asking this question because there's a
[1:00] Speaker 1: really strange interaction this week on Twitter between myself and
[1:03] Speaker 1: someone else, and that interaction had to do with Klon
[1:06] Speaker 1: Black and on this show, in this podcast feed, since
[1:10] Speaker 1: the draft, I don't think I've really broken down Klon
[1:13] Speaker 1: Black the prospect. I've mostly talked about San Francisco reaching
[1:17] Speaker 1: for him based on mock draft data, so objectively from
[1:21] Speaker 1: an analytical perspective, with the things that I look at,
[1:24] Speaker 1: what do we have with Klon Black? Well, first off,
[1:27] Speaker 1: I think overall there's a lot of red flags to
[1:29] Speaker 1: his profile. Not being an NFL combine invite was a
[1:32] Speaker 1: little bit weird, but I won't even hold that against him.
[1:35] Speaker 1: What I will hold against him is the fact that
[1:37] Speaker 1: he's already twenty four and a half years old. Now,
[1:40] Speaker 1: this isn't the same that I care about his age
[1:42] Speaker 1: from the perspective of having him through a second contract,
[1:45] Speaker 1: or that I'm worried about him breaking down quickly in
[1:48] Speaker 1: the NFL. It's that generally younger running back prospects are
[1:51] Speaker 1: better than older ones. There's more room for growth than
[1:55] Speaker 1: if they enter the league at a younger age. That
[1:57] Speaker 1: signals to us that they're talented. They were able to
[2:00] Speaker 1: do that at a younger age, oftentimes leaving college early.
[2:04] Speaker 1: Now I'm coming off of an episode where I talked
[2:06] Speaker 1: about the impact of this current college landscape with nil
[2:09] Speaker 1: and transfer rules all that stuff, and how that's driving
[2:12] Speaker 1: prospect age up, but it's generally driving the age up
[2:16] Speaker 1: for undrafted players in later round picks, not Day two once,
[2:20] Speaker 1: so we're bound to see some of this happening a
[2:22] Speaker 1: little bit more, where we get a twenty four year
[2:24] Speaker 1: old player getting drafted on Day two just because there's
[2:27] Speaker 1: more of them entering the NFL right now, that doesn't
[2:31] Speaker 1: mean that we ignore the age signal, though we admittedly
[2:34] Speaker 1: don't have a lot of data of top one hundred
[2:36] Speaker 1: running backs, we're past their twenty fourth birthday when they
[2:39] Speaker 1: were drafted. In fact, the only other top one hundred
[2:42] Speaker 1: pick at this age since twenty eleven in the zapmodel
[2:45] Speaker 1: database is RJ. Harvey, and I think we'd all agree
[2:49] Speaker 1: that right now today Harvey was overvalued as a dynasty asset,
[2:53] Speaker 1: largely due to landing spot. And it's not to say
[2:56] Speaker 1: that things can't turn around. I'm just saying, right now,
[2:59] Speaker 1: versus where we were a year ago, RJ. Harvey's value
[3:03] Speaker 1: isn't looking amazing. We know that age matters even in
[3:07] Speaker 1: this nil era, and honestly, we can even ignore that
[3:10] Speaker 1: raw age if you want to and just look at
[3:12] Speaker 1: age adjusted production, like if Kaylon Black is twenty four
[3:15] Speaker 1: and a half years old, but he produced right away.
[3:17] Speaker 1: He had a sweet production profile. When you adjust for
[3:20] Speaker 1: when that production happened, then we might be more forgiving
[3:23] Speaker 1: about his overall age. But according to my numbers, that's
[3:27] Speaker 1: not really the case. I will say this Black didn't
[3:31] Speaker 1: even get a high risk Draft Capital delta tag within
[3:33] Speaker 1: the ZAP Model, which means the model has seen plenty
[3:36] Speaker 1: of worst picks, which is kind of surprising. He's got
[3:39] Speaker 1: pretty good size, and even his pro day adjusted speed
[3:41] Speaker 1: score it's solid enough. Meanwhile, he had a best season
[3:45] Speaker 1: reception share around ten percent. That's a forty seven percentile number.
[3:48] Speaker 1: He had an adjusted yards per team pass attempt, adjusted
[3:51] Speaker 1: for age, and strength of schedule of point six that's
[3:54] Speaker 1: in his best season. That's also a forty seven percentile number.
[3:59] Speaker 1: But that's percent tile among all prospects in the ZAP
[4:02] Speaker 1: Model database. All prospects meaning the guys who were drafted
[4:06] Speaker 1: are the guys who went to the combine since twenty eleven.
[4:08] Speaker 1: When we look solely at picks thirty three through one hundred,
[4:11] Speaker 1: so day two picks, we're removing the round one guys here,
[4:14] Speaker 1: it's closer to a thirty first percentile number. And that's
[4:17] Speaker 1: for adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt. Now, look,
[4:21] Speaker 1: one number doesn't make or break a prospect. We've seen
[4:24] Speaker 1: hits from players with an adjusted yards per team pass
[4:26] Speaker 1: attempt this low. When we look at players in the
[4:29] Speaker 1: ZAP model database who were below the point seven mark,
[4:31] Speaker 1: remember Kaylon Black was point six, we find thirty seven
[4:35] Speaker 1: running backs who were drafted between pick thirty three and
[4:37] Speaker 1: pick one hundred since twenty eleven. Of those thirty seven,
[4:41] Speaker 1: Eddie Lacy, Le'Veon Bell, Carlos Hide, Tevin Coleman, David Montgomery,
[4:45] Speaker 1: and Miles Sanders each produced an RB two type season,
[4:49] Speaker 1: and Quinn Shawn Judkins is on that list too. He'll
[4:51] Speaker 1: probably get there. Here's the issue, though, many of those
[4:55] Speaker 1: players were really good on the ground in college. I
[4:59] Speaker 1: have a just did total yards per team play in
[5:01] Speaker 1: the model too, and each one of those players cleared
[5:05] Speaker 1: one point seventy four, which means nothing to many of you.
[5:08] Speaker 1: I get that, But Kaylon Black is at one point
[5:12] Speaker 1: one to two in his best season, and that's an
[5:14] Speaker 1: adjusted total yards per team play. That's where I start
[5:18] Speaker 1: to get concerned about his outlook. I certainly don't think
[5:22] Speaker 1: that he's an elite receiver. But I think at one
[5:24] Speaker 1: point I mentioned that his receiving numbers were kind of awful,
[5:27] Speaker 1: but they're not awful. I'd say they're below average for sure,
[5:31] Speaker 1: but it's not to the point where I think he's
[5:33] Speaker 1: like incapable of playing some role as a pass catcher.
[5:36] Speaker 1: But we have to remember why we're looking at receiving
[5:38] Speaker 1: metrics for running backs when we're prospecting. It's because it
[5:41] Speaker 1: shows how well rounded they are. It shows how frequently
[5:45] Speaker 1: their teams were trying to get them the ball. It
[5:47] Speaker 1: shows intent. It's not just about capability of being able
[5:51] Speaker 1: to handle a ten percent target share in the NFL.
[5:54] Speaker 1: It's talent evaluation. And with Black, he's at least below
[5:59] Speaker 1: average there. I don't know how you could point to
[6:01] Speaker 1: any metric for him and say that he's got a
[6:03] Speaker 1: good or great receiving profile. But yeah, I've seen worse.
[6:08] Speaker 1: Where I haven't really seen worse is in total yards
[6:11] Speaker 1: per team play, at least for this kind of draft capital.
[6:14] Speaker 1: Among that same subset of backs who've been drafted between
[6:17] Speaker 1: thirty three and one hundred over the last fifteen years,
[6:20] Speaker 1: blacks adjusted total yards per team play rate is the
[6:24] Speaker 1: absolute worst, and again, we've seen some hits from running
[6:28] Speaker 1: backs with low total yards per team play rates. James
[6:32] Speaker 1: Cook is one of them. He was at one point
[6:34] Speaker 1: one point nine and adjusted total yards per team play
[6:37] Speaker 1: in his best season. Antonio Gibson's was one point one seven.
[6:41] Speaker 1: He's had his moments. The difference is that those two players,
[6:46] Speaker 1: they were excellent and adjusted receiving yards per team pass
[6:49] Speaker 1: attempt If we lose some parameters here a little bit,
[6:52] Speaker 1: and we look at players with adjusted receiving yards per
[6:54] Speaker 1: team pass attempt rates below point eight and then adjusted
[6:57] Speaker 1: total yards per team play rates below one point five. Remember,
[7:01] Speaker 1: Kaylon Black is at point six and one point one two,
[7:04] Speaker 1: significantly below those thresholds. We get the following day two
[7:09] Speaker 1: running backs Jeric McKinnon, who wasn't a traditional running back prospect,
[7:13] Speaker 1: Terrence West, Matt Jones, Damian Harris, Funny Enough, ty Davis Price,
[7:19] Speaker 1: and then Trey Benson. Let's move that even further north.
[7:23] Speaker 1: Let's go one point seven in yards per team play
[7:25] Speaker 1: and point nine in yards per team pass attempt. That
[7:29] Speaker 1: added Alex Green, Stephen Ridley, Kristin, Michael Kenyan, Drake, Darrenton Evans,
[7:35] Speaker 1: Tank Bigsby, and Marshawn Lloyd in addition to the other
[7:39] Speaker 1: backs that I already mentioned. I mean, flat out, plain
[7:43] Speaker 1: and simple, this is not a good profile. I genuinely
[7:46] Speaker 1: don't know how you would spin this profile to look
[7:49] Speaker 1: above average. At the very least. The problem is that
[7:53] Speaker 1: the prospect himself isn't the only thing that matters, especially
[7:56] Speaker 1: for running backs. There's no doubt that the system that
[7:59] Speaker 1: he's in right now with Kyle Shanahan can give him
[8:01] Speaker 1: a boost. There's no doubt that running back production in
[8:04] Speaker 1: fantasy football is tied more closely to simple coaching decisions
[8:08] Speaker 1: than wide receiver production is. This is why the model
[8:11] Speaker 1: is still weighing draft capital and still isn't saying fade
[8:14] Speaker 1: at all costs. And that's the key. I mentioned this
[8:18] Speaker 1: in the Late Round show a couple of weeks ago,
[8:19] Speaker 1: But my rankings they've had Black ahead of ADP. Not
[8:23] Speaker 1: dramatically because I don't think he's a great prospect, but
[8:27] Speaker 1: it was ahead because I'm trying to recognize range of
[8:29] Speaker 1: outcomes here, and I also know that weird things can
[8:32] Speaker 1: happen in prospect evaluation. If he were a second round
[8:35] Speaker 1: rookie pick, he'd be an easy fade but he's not
[8:38] Speaker 1: at all, which is why within this bad rookie class,
[8:41] Speaker 1: I don't think he's a fade. I don't think he's
[8:43] Speaker 1: a good prospect, but I don't think there's a lot
[8:45] Speaker 1: of good prospects in this class. Am I excited about
[8:48] Speaker 1: his potential? Not really. I thought there were more talented
[8:52] Speaker 1: running backs to choose from when San Francisco made that pick.
[8:55] Speaker 1: And historically, players with these types of numbers they don't
[8:58] Speaker 1: pan out at a very high rate at all. In fact,
[9:01] Speaker 1: they just don't pan out. But again, it's a really
[9:04] Speaker 1: weak class, and crazy things happen in prospecting all the time.
[9:09] Speaker 1: You have to weigh the pros and cons. You have
[9:10] Speaker 1: to weigh the range of outcomes. And with Kaylon Black,
[9:14] Speaker 1: it's fine if you want to throw a third round
[9:16] Speaker 1: rookie pick at him. That's really not costly at all.
[9:20] Speaker 1: You can just say I'll plug my nose and just
[9:23] Speaker 1: look at situation. But overall, do I think Kaylon Black's
[9:26] Speaker 1: a good prospect? No, I don't. This best question from
[9:32] Speaker 1: at sideshow Tim too it says at some point Jonathan
[9:36] Speaker 1: Brooks has to be healthy again. The Panthers backfield seems
[9:39] Speaker 1: wide open. Canal has loved him coming out of Texas.
[9:42] Speaker 1: He seems to have a reasonable path to shooting up
[9:44] Speaker 1: in average draft position. Or am I missing something? You're
[9:48] Speaker 1: not missing anything. I think Brooks is a very, very
[9:51] Speaker 1: intriguing player who I'll probably be in on this year
[9:54] Speaker 1: when season long drafts start. I've already taken him in
[9:57] Speaker 1: Best Ball drafts. I think some people with pain me
[10:00] Speaker 1: as a Chuba Hubbard hater because last year I faded
[10:02] Speaker 1: him a cost. But I think Hubbard is a fine
[10:05] Speaker 1: running back. My issue is I don't think he's an
[10:08] Speaker 1: excellent pass catcher, and so he doesn't bring enough upside
[10:11] Speaker 1: for me to want to be aggressive with him. As
[10:14] Speaker 1: of today, He's not a fade for me in twenty
[10:16] Speaker 1: twenty six, but I do have my concerns. For one,
[10:19] Speaker 1: we learned last year through a study that I did,
[10:21] Speaker 1: that middle round running backs their yards per route run
[10:24] Speaker 1: in the previous season can be pretty predictive at the extremes.
[10:28] Speaker 1: And look, Hubbard was a little bit better last year
[10:30] Speaker 1: in that department at a one point zero one rate
[10:32] Speaker 1: according to PFF, but he's been below that one mark
[10:36] Speaker 1: in two of his last three seasons and three of
[10:38] Speaker 1: his five seasons in the league. He has not been
[10:41] Speaker 1: an a fishing pass catcher, and I saw them bringing
[10:44] Speaker 1: Rico Dowdell and drafting Trevor Etn last year a pass
[10:47] Speaker 1: catching specialist because they need a little bit more help there.
[10:51] Speaker 1: But Brooks can bring that pass catching element to this
[10:53] Speaker 1: Panthers offense. He's got that well rounded profile. He also
[10:57] Speaker 1: looked pretty good in the Zapp model. We just haven't
[10:59] Speaker 1: been able to see him on the NFL field for
[11:01] Speaker 1: obvious reasons. Now, look, Brooks has not been able to
[11:05] Speaker 1: stay healthy, and a big reason I don't have Chewpa
[11:07] Speaker 1: Hubbard as a clear fade right now is because of that.
[11:11] Speaker 1: If things do go south, Cheopa Hubbard just on volume alone,
[11:14] Speaker 1: can be fine in fantasy football. He's not the player
[11:17] Speaker 1: that I'm gonna aggressively target, like I said, but I
[11:20] Speaker 1: do think he's gonna have a very good floor because
[11:23] Speaker 1: unlike last year, where we had some data on Rico
[11:26] Speaker 1: Dowdell being a decent NFL back, we have no data
[11:29] Speaker 1: on Jonathan Brooks and we have no idea if he's
[11:32] Speaker 1: gonna look the same after these injuries. But as a
[11:36] Speaker 1: standalone late round target, yes, this is the kind of
[11:39] Speaker 1: player Jonathan Brooks that I love throwing darts. At this
[11:45] Speaker 1: last question from Blue Skies from at Leif Peterson, it
[11:48] Speaker 1: says any udfas that you're keeping an eye on this summer. Yeah,
[11:52] Speaker 1: there's plenty of udfas, but there's one in particular who
[11:55] Speaker 1: I'm interested in, and that's John Michael Gillenborg. I'd mentioned
[11:59] Speaker 1: Gillenborg is a deep sleeper pre draft, and then he
[12:01] Speaker 1: didn't get drafted, which is sad because he had a
[12:03] Speaker 1: ninety first percentile heighth adjusted speed score in the ZAP
[12:06] Speaker 1: model and his breakout score wasn't amazing due to program adjustments.
[12:10] Speaker 1: It was fifty third percentile, but that's still not bad
[12:13] Speaker 1: given the program adjustments. And I say program adjustments because
[12:17] Speaker 1: he went to Wyoming. At Wyoming, though he had a
[12:20] Speaker 1: best season yards parole run rate in the eighty eight percentile,
[12:23] Speaker 1: in a career yards parole run rate in the eighty
[12:25] Speaker 1: six percentile. And in Kansas City you obviously get Andy
[12:29] Speaker 1: Reid and Patrick Mahomes, but Travis Kelcey's on the verge
[12:32] Speaker 1: of retirement. Noah Gray would probably be the next man
[12:34] Speaker 1: up if Travis kelce retires, But it's not like He's
[12:37] Speaker 1: just undeniably good and there are mostly projects behind him,
[12:42] Speaker 1: so why not interesting profile, pretty good situation. Let's see
[12:46] Speaker 1: what happens there. And I also think that Jeff Caldwell
[12:49] Speaker 1: on that same team, he's also an interesting UDFA. He's
[12:53] Speaker 1: an absolute size speed freak, and Kansas City needs some
[12:57] Speaker 1: help at wide receiver. Now, look, I highly doubt either
[13:00] Speaker 1: of these players are going to become something because it's
[13:03] Speaker 1: very very rare to see udfas really work out. I
[13:06] Speaker 1: think I've only correctly called two of them over the
[13:09] Speaker 1: last like six or seven years. James Robinson was one,
[13:12] Speaker 1: Jalen Coker was another. At least that's who I remember most,
[13:16] Speaker 1: But those are two names to watch out for. The
[13:20] Speaker 1: nice question from raw Luga on Patreon. It says most
[13:23] Speaker 1: everyone has Cede Lamb and George Pickens and their top
[13:26] Speaker 1: ten wide receivers, but Dak Prescott barely cracks the top
[13:29] Speaker 1: twelve quarterbacks. Do you think Dak will hold back both
[13:32] Speaker 1: wide receivers from actually finishing as wide receiver ones. No,
[13:37] Speaker 1: because that offense and Dak himself it's very fantasy friendly.
[13:42] Speaker 1: Something I do want to call out, though, is the
[13:44] Speaker 1: way that we're thinking about this. I've done some research
[13:46] Speaker 1: over the last couple of years, and while it's not
[13:48] Speaker 1: bad to have a quarterback who has high end wide receivers,
[13:51] Speaker 1: we should actually care more if the quarterback has no
[13:54] Speaker 1: high end talent. There's a little bit more signal from
[13:57] Speaker 1: what I've found. Typically, not always, but so typically those
[14:01] Speaker 1: are the quarterbacks who tend to underperform versus expectation when
[14:04] Speaker 1: they don't have high end wide receivers or pass catchers
[14:08] Speaker 1: according to ADP, but Dak not ranking in the top
[14:11] Speaker 1: twelve fantasy quarterbacks has just as much to do about
[14:14] Speaker 1: rushing as it does anything else. He's not super mobile,
[14:18] Speaker 1: and the market is adjusted to quarterback rushing over the
[14:20] Speaker 1: last three to five years. So at the top of
[14:23] Speaker 1: quarterback ADPs we're getting like josh Allen, Lamar Jackson. But
[14:26] Speaker 1: then there's Jayden Daniels who's still getting drafted high, Drake
[14:29] Speaker 1: May and so on, and they should I'm not saying
[14:31] Speaker 1: that's wrong, that's actually right in my opinion. I'm saying
[14:35] Speaker 1: looking at the ranking of Dak Prescott and saying that
[14:37] Speaker 1: he can't support two wide receivers because of that ranking
[14:41] Speaker 1: isn't super relevant these days because quarterback ADP is going
[14:45] Speaker 1: to skew towards those mobile players. It's a pass friendly offense,
[14:49] Speaker 1: and those targets are going to be funneled to those
[14:51] Speaker 1: wide receivers. As long as Pickens is there in playing,
[14:55] Speaker 1: I wouldn't worry about Dak, who's been one of the
[14:57] Speaker 1: better quarterbacks in the league since he's entered the NFL.
[15:00] Speaker 1: There are far worse situations out there. The last question
[15:05] Speaker 1: this week is from at sam heard Shipping. It says,
[15:08] Speaker 1: as fantasy players who aren't statisticians or spend their time
[15:11] Speaker 1: researching data, only use analytics and insights from the pros,
[15:15] Speaker 1: what should I think of Jordan Tyson being so drastically
[15:18] Speaker 1: different in so many models drafted him one oh two
[15:21] Speaker 1: because of you, but so many others think that he
[15:25] Speaker 1: won't hit. Now, Honestly, I haven't seen other models that
[15:29] Speaker 1: are saying that Tyson won't hit. If I'm just being honest,
[15:32] Speaker 1: like most models will have him wide receiver three at worst,
[15:35] Speaker 1: wide receiver one at best, which I think is honestly
[15:38] Speaker 1: pretty reasonable. I obviously like him as the wide receiver one,
[15:42] Speaker 1: but I can see why a model might like Carnell
[15:44] Speaker 1: Tate or Mackay Lemon more for Tate, he had better
[15:48] Speaker 1: draft capital. You've got program adjustments or teammates score stuff
[15:51] Speaker 1: that favors him. He's in early declare. McKay Lemon is
[15:55] Speaker 1: two and he had a really strong production profile. Depending
[15:58] Speaker 1: on some metrics, you could argue that Lemon had a
[16:00] Speaker 1: better production profile than both, that he has the best
[16:03] Speaker 1: production profile in this entire class. Breakout score, though, is
[16:06] Speaker 1: really reliable for me. So I lean on that, and
[16:09] Speaker 1: I lean on Tyson, But there are many many ways
[16:12] Speaker 1: to analyze production. Now, if I were to assume that
[16:15] Speaker 1: models really do disagree with Jordan Tyson, I'd say it's
[16:18] Speaker 1: probably because he missed a lot of time in college.
[16:21] Speaker 1: And people could look at that a lot differently, Like
[16:23] Speaker 1: I use a pro rated number in the Zapp model,
[16:25] Speaker 1: so as long as the player plays six games, his
[16:27] Speaker 1: season's gonna count. Others may look at season long data
[16:31] Speaker 1: that to me is a little bit unfair. But again,
[16:34] Speaker 1: maybe they're finding signal through doing that. And I kind
[16:37] Speaker 1: of already alluded to this, But Tyson's not an early
[16:39] Speaker 1: declare receiver either. Some people really weigh that factor. I
[16:44] Speaker 1: care more about age adjusted production, even though early declare
[16:47] Speaker 1: status is an input in the ZAP model, but some
[16:50] Speaker 1: might weigh that more heavily than I am, and they
[16:52] Speaker 1: might not care about age as much as the college
[16:55] Speaker 1: year year one as a freshman, year two as a sophomore,
[16:58] Speaker 1: and so on. There are loads and loads of numbers
[17:01] Speaker 1: that we can look at in so many ways to
[17:04] Speaker 1: manipulate those numbers. College football data, unfortunately is not super robust,
[17:09] Speaker 1: but we collectively as a fantasy community have come up
[17:12] Speaker 1: with a lot of cool ways to measure things. And
[17:15] Speaker 1: some of those things will be in one model but
[17:17] Speaker 1: not another, and sometimes for some players that can make
[17:20] Speaker 1: a difference. Though I stand by the fact that I
[17:23] Speaker 1: haven't seen Tyson further down than wide receiver three in
[17:26] Speaker 1: a model. But I'm not looking at every single model
[17:28] Speaker 1: that's out there, obviously, But I think you asking this
[17:31] Speaker 1: question raises a point that I think is very valid,
[17:34] Speaker 1: and that's how do I know what models to follow
[17:36] Speaker 1: and what to rely on? Now. I did talk about
[17:39] Speaker 1: this more in depth a couple of mailbag episodes ago,
[17:42] Speaker 1: but i'd make sure that you're listening to an analyst
[17:44] Speaker 1: who's being open and transparent, talking honestly about the inputs
[17:49] Speaker 1: and their process. If they're just throwing names into a
[17:52] Speaker 1: list without explaining the why. That's a huge problem. But
[17:56] Speaker 1: there could be differing results analytically because the way we
[17:59] Speaker 1: calculate things can be slightly different. Even just purely what
[18:02] Speaker 1: we're solving can be different. I'm looking at B two
[18:05] Speaker 1: s or the best two seasons across the player's first
[18:07] Speaker 1: three years of his career. Someone else might be looking
[18:10] Speaker 1: at top twenty four performances or something across a player's
[18:13] Speaker 1: rookie contract. Those small things can dictate what the inputs
[18:17] Speaker 1: are gonna be in a certain model. I guess what
[18:19] Speaker 1: I'm saying here is just because something is numbers driven
[18:22] Speaker 1: and analytical doesn't mean it's objectively true. We're humans trying
[18:26] Speaker 1: to predict human behavior. We're trying to forecast how well
[18:30] Speaker 1: humans are gonna play a game. That means not only
[18:33] Speaker 1: is the result pretty volatile, but the process in which
[18:35] Speaker 1: we get to that result that's gonna be volatile too,
[18:39] Speaker 1: no matter the method, whether it's purely film based or
[18:41] Speaker 1: purely analytics based. But I see it no differently than
[18:45] Speaker 1: how I see how. There are differing ideas for film
[18:47] Speaker 1: based analysis. In fact, i'd strongly strongly argue that numbers
[18:52] Speaker 1: based prospecting is gonna align more closely to other numbers
[18:55] Speaker 1: based prospecting processes than film based ones will, just because
[19:00] Speaker 1: there's more objective overlap, and because, in my opinion, when
[19:03] Speaker 1: you prospect through numbers, it's a little bit easier to
[19:06] Speaker 1: fix any issues that you might be having, and as
[19:08] Speaker 1: you fix them and as you get better results, you're
[19:11] Speaker 1: more likely gonna align with others who are doing the
[19:13] Speaker 1: exact same thing. That just doesn't mean that there's gonna
[19:16] Speaker 1: be one hundred percent overlap. I'm gonna have different results
[19:19] Speaker 1: than Dwayne McFarlane and his Rookie Supermodel. And if you
[19:22] Speaker 1: the consumer would rather lean in on the players where
[19:25] Speaker 1: there's serious overlap between my analysis and Dwayne's, although I
[19:28] Speaker 1: do think that Dwayne likes Tyson, But if you'd rather
[19:31] Speaker 1: just draft the true overlap players, maybe there's some validity
[19:34] Speaker 1: to that. Maybe that's a process that you can take
[19:37] Speaker 1: on that has really good results. I don't have the
[19:40] Speaker 1: answer to that, because I'm trying to give you, guys,
[19:42] Speaker 1: what I think is the best analysis or the best
[19:44] Speaker 1: analysis that I can give, and it's analysis that I
[19:48] Speaker 1: know has been successful, not just through how I've used
[19:51] Speaker 1: it in my leagues, but how others have used it.
[19:54] Speaker 1: It won't be perfect. Jordan Tyson is not guaranteed to hit,
[19:58] Speaker 1: but I'm confident that what I'm doing is gonna hel
[20:00] Speaker 1: help you out in the long run because I've tested
[20:02] Speaker 1: it and I've lived it, and there are others in
[20:04] Speaker 1: the fantasy space who can claim the exact same thing.
[20:06] Speaker 1: The guy I just mentioned, Dwayne, not only a friend,
[20:09] Speaker 1: but he's a great analyst too. You just have to
[20:11] Speaker 1: find the mix that works best for you, and you
[20:14] Speaker 1: have to understand that we're not always going to see
[20:16] Speaker 1: things the exact same way because we're projecting something that's
[20:20] Speaker 1: inherently very volatile. That doesn't mean that we can't find
[20:23] Speaker 1: a serious edge though. That's it for today's show, though,
[20:27] Speaker 1: thanks to all of you for listening. If you had
[20:28] Speaker 1: subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure
[20:31] Speaker 1: you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts
[20:33] Speaker 1: can be found, and to follow me on Twitter and
[20:35] Speaker 1: on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening
[20:39] Speaker 1: this week everyone, I greatly appreciate it. Enjoy your weekend
[20:42] Speaker 1: and I'll catch you next week.

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