# 1115: Players to Target

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 11 Aug 2026, 57 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/f1ea4b41-0a16-4cc6-a005-b4a201572046/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

With fantasy football draft season in full force, JJ sits down with Establish the Run's Evan Silva to discuss 10 players they're targeting in drafts this year. Make sure to check out LateRound.com to order the 2026 Draft Guide. And while you're there, become a member! The new Members Hub is the place for rankings and tiers, data dumps, and more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ Zacheras
[0:06] Speaker 1: j J Zacherisa. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in
[0:14] Speaker 1: this episode eleven fifteen of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast.
[0:19] Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in. I've been doing episodes in August
[0:22] Speaker 1: I'm Players to Target and Players to avoid for years now,
[0:25] Speaker 1: basically since the podcast started. But over the last handful
[0:29] Speaker 1: of years, I've been doing these episodes with a guest,
[0:32] Speaker 1: and those guests have been the same guests each year,
[0:36] Speaker 1: two of the absolute best in the fantasy football industry
[0:39] Speaker 1: and Evan Silva and rich Reebar. It's sort of become
[0:42] Speaker 1: tradition at this point, and these episodes I look forward
[0:45] Speaker 1: to them each and every year. So today we've got
[0:48] Speaker 1: Evan Silva from established the Run on the show to
[0:50] Speaker 1: talk about five players he's targeting in drafts this year.
[0:53] Speaker 1: He sent me over his list of five and then
[0:56] Speaker 1: I added five more.
[0:57] Speaker 2: Of my own.
[0:58] Speaker 1: We don't automatically agree on each guy, but you guys
[1:01] Speaker 1: can hear the reasoning here why we're thinking the way
[1:03] Speaker 1: that we're thinking, and then hopefully make better decisions during
[1:06] Speaker 1: your draft. Of course, with this being a player's to
[1:09] Speaker 1: Target episode, we're doing this based on where these players
[1:12] Speaker 1: typically get drafted. We're talking about values here. We're not
[1:16] Speaker 1: just telling you to draft Jamier Gibbs. We all know
[1:19] Speaker 1: that you should draft Jamiir Gibbs. We're instead looking at
[1:22] Speaker 1: this from the perspective of value. Now, before we get
[1:25] Speaker 1: into my conversation with Evan, I just wanted to send
[1:27] Speaker 1: another reminder to check out the Late Round Draft Guide.
[1:30] Speaker 1: There's well over two hundred and seventy pages of content
[1:33] Speaker 1: that includes game theory, strategy, ways of spot, breakouts and busts,
[1:36] Speaker 1: players to target, players avoid, and more. It's all updated
[1:40] Speaker 1: weekly directly to your email inbox.
[1:43] Speaker 3: Check it out.
[1:43] Speaker 1: Learn more over on lateround dot com. Now, let's look
[1:47] Speaker 1: at ten players to target with my guy Evansilva. All right, Evan,
[1:54] Speaker 1: here we meet again. Last year we did some players
[1:58] Speaker 1: to avoid. This year we're gonna do players to target.
[2:01] Speaker 1: We each have five guys that we will be talking through,
[2:05] Speaker 1: kind of giving our takes, having a little back.
[2:07] Speaker 3: And forth about them. But I'll kick it to you first.
[2:10] Speaker 1: Give us a player that you want to start with
[2:12] Speaker 1: that you are targeting in a lot of your drafts
[2:14] Speaker 1: this year.
[2:15] Speaker 2: Kenneth Walker. Kenneth Walker, I mean, I think he should
[2:19] Speaker 2: be a first round pick, like a consensus first round pick.
[2:23] Speaker 2: He pretty consistently lasts until the early to middle portion
[2:26] Speaker 2: of the second round. But I strongly believe that he
[2:30] Speaker 2: belongs at like I have him number nine overall. I
[2:33] Speaker 2: have him as my RB five overall. I think he
[2:36] Speaker 2: makes all the sense in the world for the Chiefs
[2:38] Speaker 2: to build their offense around Kenneth Walker. I think that's
[2:40] Speaker 2: what they're planning to do, especially with Patrick Mahomes coming
[2:43] Speaker 2: off of December surgery. It was in December to rebuild
[2:47] Speaker 2: his ACL and LCL. Patrick Mahomes has already talked openly
[2:52] Speaker 2: about how he's not going to run as much this year.
[2:56] Speaker 2: He ran a lot last year before he got hurt.
[2:59] Speaker 2: That will I think to more checkdowns, more screens. The
[3:03] Speaker 2: Chiefs want to go back to using more of the
[3:06] Speaker 2: screen game, which was a staple of Andy Reid's offenses
[3:09] Speaker 2: for many, many years, and they kind of have gotten
[3:11] Speaker 2: away from that in recent seasons, but they've talked about
[3:14] Speaker 2: how they want to get back to that. The Chiefs
[3:16] Speaker 2: gave Kenneth Walker almost fifteen million dollars a year and
[3:19] Speaker 2: almost thirty million guarantee. That is a lot for a
[3:22] Speaker 2: running back. The Chief's top pass catchers right now are
[3:25] Speaker 2: Travis Kelce, who turns thirty seven a month into the season,
[3:29] Speaker 2: and Rashie Rice, who had knee surgery in May and
[3:34] Speaker 2: had to rehab from knee surgery in literal jail. Our
[3:39] Speaker 2: offensive line guru at established the run. Brandon Thorn rated
[3:43] Speaker 2: Kansas City's offensive line eighth best in the league, and
[3:47] Speaker 2: I think you can strongly argue that Kenneth Walker is
[3:51] Speaker 2: the Chief's best skill position player aside from Patrick Mahomes.
[3:55] Speaker 2: At this point. His top backups are Amari de Mercado,
[3:59] Speaker 2: who is in Kansas City on basically a veteran veteran
[4:02] Speaker 2: minimum deal, and rookie Emmett Johnson, who lasted until the
[4:06] Speaker 2: fifth round of an historically bad running back class. So
[4:10] Speaker 2: Kenneth Walker has so little in house competition for work.
[4:16] Speaker 2: This offense is going to revolve around Kenneth Walker. I
[4:19] Speaker 2: like him as a longer shot bet to win NFL
[4:23] Speaker 2: Offensive Player of the Year at forty to one.
[4:26] Speaker 3: Yeah, I love the call.
[4:28] Speaker 1: You look at what the Chiefs had last year with
[4:30] Speaker 1: Pachecko and Kareem Hunt. They were eighth and rushing success
[4:34] Speaker 1: rate as a team, they were twenty seventh and rushing
[4:37] Speaker 1: yards over expected per attempt. And the reason for that
[4:40] Speaker 1: that we see that sort of dichotomy is well, first off,
[4:43] Speaker 1: we know that Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco are not
[4:47] Speaker 1: explosive runners, right they had one twenty plus yard run
[4:50] Speaker 1: on two over two hundred and eighty carries last year,
[4:53] Speaker 1: where Kenneth Walker does the exact opposite of that. You know,
[4:56] Speaker 1: last year they were like eight and a half percent,
[4:58] Speaker 1: six percent ten plus yard run rate, Kenneth Walker fifteen
[5:01] Speaker 1: percent ten plus yard run rate. Right, Like, Walker's been
[5:05] Speaker 1: the home run hitter, lower success rate kind of player.
[5:08] Speaker 3: And we even see that.
[5:09] Speaker 1: You see that in his runs he bounces the outside
[5:11] Speaker 1: and he'll try to outrun defenders and that you know
[5:14] Speaker 1: he can do it because he's very fast, but that
[5:16] Speaker 1: also you know he'll get tackled behind the line or
[5:18] Speaker 1: make a stupid play, and then that lowers the success rate.
[5:22] Speaker 1: But with this offense, you're going to see high success
[5:26] Speaker 1: rates if they face the highest percentage of light boxes
[5:28] Speaker 1: last year. And so I think what we're gonna see
[5:31] Speaker 1: is at the very least, a potentially just annihilation on
[5:35] Speaker 1: the ground for Kenneth Walker and what he can do
[5:38] Speaker 1: in the offense. And you know, like you said, the
[5:40] Speaker 1: big question mark I think is the receiving stuff. But
[5:43] Speaker 1: at the very least with him, you know, he had
[5:44] Speaker 1: that one target share spike season with Ryan Grubb when
[5:48] Speaker 1: he was offensive coordinator, and then the other three seasons
[5:51] Speaker 1: he's been in like that eight percent target share range.
[5:53] Speaker 1: But like you said, I think they can get more back,
[5:55] Speaker 1: you know, back to the screen game a little bit more.
[5:59] Speaker 3: With Walker. He's been good per route run, which to
[6:01] Speaker 3: me signals that he can do this.
[6:04] Speaker 1: You know, it's not so much a you know, deficiency
[6:07] Speaker 1: as much as like like he's just not being fed
[6:09] Speaker 1: in that way. And then Mahome's coming off the ACL
[6:12] Speaker 1: you know, I think that's another factor from a red
[6:14] Speaker 1: zone perspective of them using Walker close there. I mean,
[6:18] Speaker 1: your your ranking is obviously aggressive at RB five, I
[6:20] Speaker 1: have him met like RB eight or nine or something
[6:22] Speaker 1: like that. But he's in that giant tier for me,
[6:25] Speaker 1: you know, with like the Saquan's and all the you
[6:27] Speaker 1: know and Chase Browns and such. So I'm in cause
[6:30] Speaker 1: you know, in best Ball you're gonna see and that's
[6:32] Speaker 1: the thing that I want to be clear about on
[6:34] Speaker 1: today's show is that we'll be shouting out like guys
[6:36] Speaker 1: obviously that we're drafting versus ADP. But even in Best Ball,
[6:39] Speaker 1: like Kenneth Walker is like a one two turn type player.
[6:42] Speaker 1: In season long drafts, you look at season long ADP
[6:44] Speaker 1: managed leagues, he'll go in the mid to late second round,
[6:47] Speaker 1: you know, and at that area where it's like a
[6:49] Speaker 1: clear tier drop in terms of where he's being drafted
[6:52] Speaker 1: versus some of those other running backs. It's just such
[6:54] Speaker 1: a clear target in my opinion. Let's move on to
[6:58] Speaker 1: one of my guys and we'll talk about We'll talk
[7:01] Speaker 1: about Parker Washington Silva because you know, he's pretty controversial
[7:05] Speaker 1: right now. I know that a lot of people are
[7:08] Speaker 1: in for sure because there's a lot of camp pipe.
[7:10] Speaker 1: I almost wish that there wasn't camp pipe with Washington
[7:13] Speaker 1: because obviously his ADP is gonna rise a little bit
[7:16] Speaker 1: as a result of that. You know, if you're playing,
[7:19] Speaker 1: if you've been playing Best Ball, you're seeing him. You know,
[7:21] Speaker 1: we play on DraftKings over here at late round and
[7:24] Speaker 1: you know we've seen him going round five very consistently
[7:27] Speaker 1: over the last couple of weeks.
[7:29] Speaker 3: But it's totally different.
[7:30] Speaker 1: In season long, He's wide receiver thirty five over on Yahoo,
[7:33] Speaker 1: which is after Brian Thomas, after Marvin Harrison Junior, after
[7:37] Speaker 1: DK Metcalf. I personally am taking Parker Washington over all
[7:41] Speaker 1: three of those players. I'm very bullish on what this
[7:45] Speaker 1: offense did last year after Travis Hunter went down with
[7:49] Speaker 1: that injury, and it also coincided with their bye. But
[7:53] Speaker 1: pre buy and pre Hunter injury, we saw a fifty
[7:56] Speaker 1: three percent route share from Parker Washington. Post buy and
[7:59] Speaker 1: Hunter injury, we saw a seventy nine percent route share
[8:03] Speaker 1: for Parker Washington. His yards per route run after the
[8:07] Speaker 1: Travis Hunter injury was one point four or five yards
[8:11] Speaker 1: better than both Brian Thomas and Jacoby Myers, which is
[8:14] Speaker 1: absolutely insane. And Jacksonville over that timeframe, they were third
[8:19] Speaker 1: in the NFL and offensive touchdowns per game. We've seen
[8:22] Speaker 1: this Liam Cohen offense force the ball to the slot
[8:26] Speaker 1: and the other thing with Parker Washington. Just as a player,
[8:29] Speaker 1: I think a lot of people have sort of like
[8:30] Speaker 1: typecasted him as this like slot slot yak guy, which
[8:34] Speaker 1: he can definitely do. You know, he's kind of got
[8:36] Speaker 1: that like running back build to him in a way,
[8:39] Speaker 1: but he gets down the field. You know his a
[8:41] Speaker 1: dot is not eight or nine yards. I mean he
[8:43] Speaker 1: had a twelve and a half yard a dot last year.
[8:45] Speaker 1: And he can make plays down the field, which I
[8:48] Speaker 1: think is very very important. You know that he's not
[8:51] Speaker 1: just this PPR scammer. And then if you look at
[8:53] Speaker 1: some historical trends where if you look at middle round
[8:57] Speaker 1: wide receivers who had a greater than two yards per
[9:00] Speaker 1: out run rate but a points per game mark less
[9:03] Speaker 1: than twelve in the previous season, So guys who are
[9:06] Speaker 1: very efficient per route run, but they didn't get it
[9:08] Speaker 1: done in points per game, probably because they weren't seeing
[9:11] Speaker 1: that much volume. Historically, middle round wide receivers wide receivers
[9:15] Speaker 1: ring nineteen to forty two who fit that criteria, they've
[9:19] Speaker 1: outperformed ADP expectation by one point two PPR points per game,
[9:23] Speaker 1: which is pretty strong all things considered. There's also two
[9:26] Speaker 1: other guys that fit that criteria this year is Terry
[9:28] Speaker 1: McLaurin and Luther Burden. So guys who are very efficient
[9:31] Speaker 1: per route run, but they just didn't get it done
[9:34] Speaker 1: in points per game. And there are obviously reasons for that.
[9:36] Speaker 1: But I think this offense is going to continue to
[9:39] Speaker 1: run through Washington in the end. You know, the camp
[9:43] Speaker 1: pipe is not stopping that thought and feeling. You know,
[9:47] Speaker 1: obviously there's plenty of mouths defeat if you will, in
[9:50] Speaker 1: this Jacksonville offense. But to me, like what they did
[9:55] Speaker 1: signals that they should probably continue to do that thing
[9:58] Speaker 1: because it worked for them last years. Similar to like,
[10:00] Speaker 1: you know, they went out and they draft a blocking
[10:03] Speaker 1: tight end round two. They get Tanner Cozial later in
[10:05] Speaker 1: the draft, who I think is actually a pretty good
[10:07] Speaker 1: prospect in pass catching prospect. But regardless, you know, a
[10:09] Speaker 1: lot of the thought was are they going to force
[10:12] Speaker 1: more you know, heavier sets, heavier personnel and run a
[10:15] Speaker 1: lot more twelve? But I think that this this team
[10:18] Speaker 1: is smart and logical. Liam Cohen's a good coach, and
[10:21] Speaker 1: obviously personnel dictates that they should be running a lot
[10:23] Speaker 1: more eleven than anything else, given the the personnel that
[10:27] Speaker 1: they do have, you know, a wide receiver and given that,
[10:31] Speaker 1: you know, I don't think Washington's gonna leave the field
[10:33] Speaker 1: quite as frequently as we thought, maybe even.
[10:35] Speaker 3: Like three or four months ago. I'm in on Parker Washington.
[10:37] Speaker 1: He's going a lot later and managed leagues, And so
[10:40] Speaker 1: if you're not getting him in best ball, which sure
[10:42] Speaker 1: I get it to a degree, but I do think
[10:44] Speaker 1: that you should be snatching him in season long.
[10:46] Speaker 2: So I think that Parker Washington is really good, like
[10:50] Speaker 2: a really good player. I think he's always been really good.
[10:54] Speaker 2: He's a guy. He his final season at Penn State. Well,
[10:57] Speaker 2: he broke out as a nineteen year old at Penn
[11:00] Speaker 2: State in twenty twenty one, and he had sixty four
[11:05] Speaker 2: catches for eight hundred and twenty yards with bad quarterback play.
[11:08] Speaker 2: And then the next year he was on pace to
[11:11] Speaker 2: do similar stuff, but then he broke his ankle and
[11:16] Speaker 2: he still declared for the draft, so he did not
[11:19] Speaker 2: participate at the combine coming and then he was not
[11:22] Speaker 2: one hundred percent at his pro day, so he went
[11:23] Speaker 2: in the sixth round. And do you just think like
[11:27] Speaker 2: going the sixth round or seventh round or you know, UDFA,
[11:32] Speaker 2: they just don't carry the same weight, especially like when
[11:36] Speaker 2: you have like teams that are transitioning front offices or
[11:40] Speaker 2: coaching staffs, you know, like they're not tied to those
[11:44] Speaker 2: players like they are to early round picks. So that
[11:47] Speaker 2: puts Parker Washington at a disadvantage, he still overcomes, you know,
[11:52] Speaker 2: the changing from Doug Peterson to Liam Cohen and the
[11:55] Speaker 2: changing in the front offices and endears himself so much
[11:58] Speaker 2: to Liam Cohen that he becomes the Jaguars number one
[12:01] Speaker 2: receiver for what the back half of last season and
[12:05] Speaker 2: produces in that role. I think he's really good. However,
[12:10] Speaker 2: the Jaguars have four receivers that they can play, and
[12:13] Speaker 2: now they have two tight ends after they use the
[12:16] Speaker 2: second round. They locked up Brenton Brenton Strange and they
[12:20] Speaker 2: and they drafted Nate Borkircher in the second round. And
[12:24] Speaker 2: so I'm like, you know, Liam Cohen, like it just
[12:27] Speaker 2: feels like he wants to play play like a lot
[12:29] Speaker 2: of different personnel packages and keep the you know, keep
[12:32] Speaker 2: the defense off balance by playing a lot of different guys.
[12:35] Speaker 2: Jacobe Myers is going to play, Bryan Thomas has a
[12:39] Speaker 2: unique role within the Jaguars offense. He's gonna play. Travis
[12:43] Speaker 2: Hunter is probably not gonna play that much, but when
[12:45] Speaker 2: he's in the game, I think they're gonna be trying
[12:48] Speaker 2: to get him the ball, you know. So I'm like
[12:51] Speaker 2: on the fence with Parker Washington, even though I believe,
[12:54] Speaker 2: you know, I think it might be worth it taking
[12:56] Speaker 2: a stand on him, like this is a bet on
[12:58] Speaker 2: talent situation. But when I zoom out and look at
[13:02] Speaker 2: the environment in the situation, I'm just like, I haven't
[13:06] Speaker 2: taken a big stand on him.
[13:08] Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean, look, a lot of this definitely
[13:11] Speaker 1: for me because I did not expect to be in
[13:13] Speaker 1: on Washington this year because I figured he would be
[13:16] Speaker 1: steamed up, and you know, people were just really excited
[13:18] Speaker 1: about what he did last year, and he is to
[13:21] Speaker 1: a degree, like I think again in like high stake circles,
[13:25] Speaker 1: best ball circles, you definitely see him going where I.
[13:29] Speaker 3: Think he should probably be going.
[13:30] Speaker 1: So it's not like I'm I mean, I was overweight
[13:33] Speaker 1: just based on like me getting him in like the
[13:35] Speaker 1: late sixth round at times earlier this offseason. But it's
[13:38] Speaker 1: obviously gone up a lot more right, But realistically, like this.
[13:41] Speaker 3: Is pulled from last week.
[13:42] Speaker 1: This ADP, this is pulled from Thursday of last week,
[13:45] Speaker 1: and so you know, five days or six days prior
[13:48] Speaker 1: to most of you guys listening to this episode, his
[13:51] Speaker 1: consensus ADP on CBS, Yahoo and ESPN and overall ADP
[13:56] Speaker 1: so not where he's ranked as a wide receiver ninetieth overall,
[14:00] Speaker 1: ninetieth overall in a in a season. Why would you
[14:03] Speaker 1: not take a chance at that point in the draft,
[14:06] Speaker 1: You know, I would take a chance. I mean I
[14:08] Speaker 1: have him ranked like sixtieth over like I think he's
[14:10] Speaker 1: like a you know, like end of five round kind
[14:13] Speaker 1: of player or round five kind of player. Because I
[14:16] Speaker 1: start that's when I start really going to upside mode
[14:18] Speaker 1: and thinking about, you know, the ceiling case for a
[14:20] Speaker 1: lot of these guys, and and the fact that we
[14:22] Speaker 1: can get him almost three rounds before after that is
[14:26] Speaker 1: is kind of nuts in my opinion, just just based
[14:28] Speaker 1: on what we saw down the cause I think that like,
[14:31] Speaker 1: like you said, the environment is rough, like it's not
[14:33] Speaker 1: the easiest. I mean, it's good from the standpoint of efficiency,
[14:35] Speaker 1: and the offense should be good, it's rough from a
[14:38] Speaker 1: competition standpoint. I think Brian Thomas is a very good receiver,
[14:40] Speaker 1: Jacoby Myers is really underrated receiver, and obviously Travis Hunter
[14:44] Speaker 1: I think is going to play more offense probably than
[14:46] Speaker 1: what they're they're or what the consensus thinks right now.
[14:49] Speaker 1: And so yes, that's super super scary. But when you're
[14:53] Speaker 1: when you're in that range in the draft, it just
[14:54] Speaker 1: feels like you should be betting on talent and you
[14:56] Speaker 1: should just be leaning into that a little bit more
[14:58] Speaker 1: and saying go for it. But I could understand more
[15:00] Speaker 1: of the hesitation. If you're, you know, in round five,
[15:03] Speaker 1: and there's some really good wide receivers and some really
[15:05] Speaker 1: good talent that's going around him, you know, that's when
[15:08] Speaker 1: it would be a little bit scarier. All right, Evan,
[15:10] Speaker 1: let's hear your next player on the list.
[15:12] Speaker 2: I don't want to say that we disagreed on Parker Washington.
[15:16] Speaker 2: I honestly, I've thought about I think about it every day,
[15:20] Speaker 2: like should I take a stand on Parker Washington like
[15:22] Speaker 2: a bet on time? I think about it every day,
[15:24] Speaker 2: and I just have not gotten there yet. But I
[15:26] Speaker 2: know that we're going to disagree on this player so serious.
[15:29] Speaker 2: This is when the fun starts. Javonte Williams. So unlike JJ,
[15:35] Speaker 2: the Cowboys love Javonte Williams, okay, because they have showed
[15:39] Speaker 2: that through their actions they made re signing Javonte Williams
[15:43] Speaker 2: to a three year, twenty four million dollar deal with
[15:47] Speaker 2: sixteen million dollars guaranteed. Literally their second move of the
[15:52] Speaker 2: entire offseason. They released some linebacker. That was their first
[15:55] Speaker 2: move of the first transaction of the offseason. The cowboys
[15:59] Speaker 2: second transaction was to lock up Javonte Williams, and then
[16:04] Speaker 2: the Cowboys did not draft a single running back, nor
[16:08] Speaker 2: did they sign a single running back in free agency.
[16:12] Speaker 2: Brandon Thorn rates the Cowboys offensive line top ten in
[16:17] Speaker 2: the NFL, and in Our Notes we had him. Brandon
[16:22] Speaker 2: Thorne wrote an article for US breaking down each offensive
[16:25] Speaker 2: line super super in depth. Check it out at established the.
[16:27] Speaker 1: Running does better offensive line work than anyone else in
[16:31] Speaker 1: the world base.
[16:31] Speaker 2: And I think I think he gets better every year too,
[16:35] Speaker 2: and this is his best article. He specified in his
[16:40] Speaker 2: write up that the Cowboys' strength as an offensive line
[16:44] Speaker 2: is their run blocking. Javonte Williams is not like a
[16:47] Speaker 2: sexy pick, you know, and JJ's about to lay that
[16:50] Speaker 2: all out, but he is a true every down back
[16:54] Speaker 2: in a top ten offense with a chance to be
[16:57] Speaker 2: top five. He just turned twenty years old in April,
[17:01] Speaker 2: and you remember he had a super debilitating, almost career
[17:04] Speaker 2: threatening knee injury. I believe he was in twenty twenty two,
[17:08] Speaker 2: and he's sort of been on his way. I mean,
[17:10] Speaker 2: it felt like at one point in Denver that he
[17:12] Speaker 2: could fall out of the league. Yeah, but he is
[17:14] Speaker 2: obviously resurrected his career. The Cowboys love him. He typically
[17:19] Speaker 2: lasts until the middle to late parts of the third
[17:23] Speaker 2: round and sometimes the early fourth, and I think that
[17:26] Speaker 2: he belongs. I actually think that he belongs near the
[17:30] Speaker 2: two three turn, and I'll take him every time in
[17:33] Speaker 2: the middle of the third round. I think he's a
[17:36] Speaker 2: high floor pick, and I think he has upside to
[17:40] Speaker 2: compete for the league lead in rushing touchdowns this year.
[17:44] Speaker 3: So let me, do you know where you have him
[17:46] Speaker 3: ranked right now?
[17:48] Speaker 2: Yeah, I can look at it right now.
[17:50] Speaker 1: So the reason I'm curious of where you're at with
[17:53] Speaker 1: him versus like Breeze Hall right where you know, to me,
[17:58] Speaker 1: Breese has the profile.
[17:59] Speaker 2: The literally have them next to each other.
[18:01] Speaker 1: Okay, okay, So I so to be fair, I have
[18:05] Speaker 1: I still have Javonte. Look, Silva's painting me as this
[18:08] Speaker 1: huge hater, right this this huge, this huge Javante fader
[18:12] Speaker 1: and as I you know, like I still have him
[18:13] Speaker 1: like RB fifteen. You know, I still think that he
[18:16] Speaker 1: belongs like close enough to that area. He's risen a
[18:20] Speaker 1: little bit in my rankings, just because I've gotten to
[18:22] Speaker 1: the point where and I was telling Silva this before
[18:25] Speaker 1: we started recording, where of course I'm gonna have a
[18:27] Speaker 1: data backbone with my takes in the way that I
[18:30] Speaker 1: approach this stuff. But at the same time, I want to,
[18:34] Speaker 1: you know, obviously provide context and not overthink things and
[18:38] Speaker 1: have just sort of that like, uh, you know, over analysis, uh,
[18:42] Speaker 1: you know angle to this that I think is doesn't
[18:44] Speaker 1: do anyone any good. And Javonte is one of those
[18:47] Speaker 1: players where I'm trying not to overthink it, you know,
[18:49] Speaker 1: because there are things that historically point to, you know,
[18:53] Speaker 1: a potential underperformance with Javonte Williams. Last year he had
[18:57] Speaker 1: a point four yards per hour run rate, which is
[18:59] Speaker 1: beyond bad.
[19:00] Speaker 3: I mean that is that.
[19:01] Speaker 1: That's legitimate gross receiver, Yeah, gross, right, legitimately atrociy.
[19:06] Speaker 2: He has caught a lot of passes in the NFL,
[19:08] Speaker 2: but he's extremely inefficient.
[19:10] Speaker 1: Right, And so typically when you get a yards perou
[19:13] Speaker 1: run rate that low, We've actually like never seen a
[19:17] Speaker 1: running back hit a double digit percentage target share off
[19:19] Speaker 1: of that low of a yards pero run rate. And
[19:21] Speaker 1: so I'm sitting there, and I'm like, okay, like not
[19:23] Speaker 1: checking these boxes, kind of checking like the traditional dead zone.
[19:28] Speaker 3: Back profile, right.
[19:30] Speaker 1: But then I take a step back and I look
[19:32] Speaker 1: at it, and I'm like, I think that Jaden Blue
[19:34] Speaker 1: is probably gonna take on more than he did last year.
[19:36] Speaker 1: But I don't want Jaden Blue to be the reason
[19:38] Speaker 1: that I'm not drafting the clear RB one in an
[19:43] Speaker 1: offense that has consistently been you know, a top ten
[19:46] Speaker 1: offense in the league, especially for fantasy purposes. So I
[19:49] Speaker 1: come around on Javonte. I'm actually not I'm not fading him.
[19:52] Speaker 1: He's not you know, a player to it to avoid.
[19:54] Speaker 1: For me, I think that it's getting interesting in that
[19:56] Speaker 1: like running back area in general and drafts because I
[19:59] Speaker 1: like this year like versus the market, you know, just
[20:03] Speaker 1: because I think that offensive line is a lot better
[20:05] Speaker 1: than people give it credit for and that situation could
[20:08] Speaker 1: be a lot better than what people believe, and so
[20:11] Speaker 1: like I have breeze ahead of them because I just
[20:13] Speaker 1: like the pass catching profile more. And then now you're
[20:15] Speaker 1: getting into like like Jeremiah Love stuff, right because like
[20:18] Speaker 1: like he's fallen for me just because I don't know
[20:20] Speaker 1: how competent that organization is going to be with him,
[20:22] Speaker 1: you know, and so to me, it's like, should we
[20:25] Speaker 1: just be drafting Javonte over Jeremiah Love at this point?
[20:28] Speaker 1: Like are you are you there or do you have
[20:30] Speaker 1: love ahead? Or are you like way out on love.
[20:32] Speaker 2: I'm pretty out on love. I have Javante at RB twelve.
[20:37] Speaker 2: I have Jeremiah Love at RB fifteen.
[20:39] Speaker 1: Okay, that I mean, I think that's where I'm starting
[20:43] Speaker 1: to trend too. It's just like I'm getting more and
[20:45] Speaker 1: more nervous about Jeremiah Love. But at the same time, man,
[20:48] Speaker 1: I've seen round three and round four of drafts as
[20:52] Speaker 1: pretty flat in general, which is why I don't have
[20:56] Speaker 1: a strong opinion on someone even going for Javonte in
[20:59] Speaker 1: the early third or something, because I don't think that
[21:01] Speaker 1: there's so many clear cut paths to go unless, like,
[21:05] Speaker 1: you know, at this point the way that like my
[21:06] Speaker 1: league neighbors is trending it if he falls or something
[21:09] Speaker 1: like that, or you know, I'm really high on like
[21:11] Speaker 1: Davante Smith, and there are some wide receivers that I
[21:13] Speaker 1: really like in that area.
[21:15] Speaker 3: But you know, if we're talking strictly about.
[21:17] Speaker 1: The running back position, yeah, I mean, like if you
[21:19] Speaker 1: if you want to go that direction. I can understand
[21:21] Speaker 1: going Davante. Let's move on to my next player. I'm
[21:25] Speaker 1: gonna go with Chase Brown as the next one. I
[21:28] Speaker 1: think that in that round two running back pocket, the
[21:31] Speaker 1: two guys I've gravitated towards most are Kenneth Walker and
[21:34] Speaker 1: Chase Brown. Those are the you know, the the guys
[21:37] Speaker 1: that I feel most confident in from a floor ceiling perspective.
[21:42] Speaker 1: I'm not necessarily including Ashton Genty in there as much,
[21:46] Speaker 1: just because he'll go a little bit earlier oftentimes, but
[21:48] Speaker 1: these are the guys that kind of like go at
[21:50] Speaker 1: the end of that tier. You know, Brown and Walker
[21:53] Speaker 1: and Chase Brown to me has an outside chance, not
[21:57] Speaker 1: even outside, like a very real chance to be a
[21:58] Speaker 1: top five running back advance see this year. If you
[22:00] Speaker 1: look at his first six games last year, seventy eight
[22:04] Speaker 1: percent running back rush are thirteen percent target share. He
[22:06] Speaker 1: was a straight up bell cown in that offense, but
[22:09] Speaker 1: he was only averaging nine point seven PPR points per game.
[22:11] Speaker 1: That was during a stretch where you know, Jake Browning
[22:14] Speaker 1: was under center and their offensive line was absolute garbage
[22:17] Speaker 1: to start last year. And then after those games he
[22:21] Speaker 1: averaged twenty point four PPR points per game, and in
[22:24] Speaker 1: games with Joe Burrow, Chase Brown averaged twenty one PPR
[22:27] Speaker 1: points per game, only behind Christian McCaffrey, be John Robinson,
[22:31] Speaker 1: Jamier Gibbs, and Jonathan Taylor. He was right there when
[22:33] Speaker 1: Joe Burrow was healthy. Some might say that that has
[22:37] Speaker 1: something to do with Samaj p Ryan missing time during
[22:40] Speaker 1: that stretch, but he still had a fourteen percent target
[22:43] Speaker 1: share with Joe Burrow last year. The ceiling is just
[22:46] Speaker 1: really phenomenal in an offense too. That and I heard
[22:49] Speaker 1: Thorn mention this that I didn't even realize that I
[22:52] Speaker 1: think is really key. This is the first time that
[22:55] Speaker 1: if I recall that Joe Burrow has the same starting
[22:58] Speaker 1: offensive lineman year of is what Thorn had mentioned, I
[23:02] Speaker 1: believe on your show.
[23:03] Speaker 3: I think I was listening to it in the car
[23:04] Speaker 3: one day.
[23:05] Speaker 1: And to me, that's huge because the offensive line for
[23:08] Speaker 1: Cincinnati has been by far the biggest struggle and problem
[23:11] Speaker 1: that they've had the last couple of years on offense.
[23:13] Speaker 1: And now if you have some continuity there more of
[23:16] Speaker 1: them being like a middle of the road offensive line
[23:18] Speaker 1: instead of a bottom five, bottom seven to one, that's
[23:21] Speaker 1: where things could start to really click and this offense
[23:25] Speaker 1: could really start to dominate. And if we get more
[23:28] Speaker 1: neutral scripts, we get more of those favorable scripts. I
[23:30] Speaker 1: think Chase Brown could could benefit, you know, overall within
[23:34] Speaker 1: this offense. We have market score now with late at
[23:36] Speaker 1: late round Fantasy football, where we look at the market
[23:40] Speaker 1: score number, of course the raw number, but we have
[23:42] Speaker 1: market score comps where we'll look at a player's market score,
[23:45] Speaker 1: his overall ADP, and his career year and find comps
[23:49] Speaker 1: based on those numbers. And Chase Brown's closest comps are
[23:54] Speaker 1: twenty fourteen DeMarco Murray when he scored twenty two PPR
[23:57] Speaker 1: points per game and twenty sixteen Le'Veon Bell where he
[24:00] Speaker 1: scored twenty one point two PPR points per game. When
[24:03] Speaker 1: you look at all of the Round two running backs,
[24:05] Speaker 1: and this includes Kenneth Walker, they all have some sort
[24:09] Speaker 1: of change within their environment, right, even like coordinator changes,
[24:13] Speaker 1: and there's there's something that's moving that makes them at
[24:16] Speaker 1: least a little bit more volatile. Chase Brown has such
[24:19] Speaker 1: a stable environment that you know, nothing really changed offensively
[24:23] Speaker 1: for Cincinnati year over year, and it makes me feel
[24:26] Speaker 1: more bullish and optimistic about what he can do in fantasy.
[24:30] Speaker 1: So Chase Brown round two all day. I'm above market,
[24:34] Speaker 1: and I just think he's a really good pick.
[24:36] Speaker 2: Love it. He's like an auto pick, Like I mean,
[24:39] Speaker 2: I think he's worth consideration in the in the middle
[24:42] Speaker 2: of the third of the second round, and like he's
[24:44] Speaker 2: a lock pick anywhere anywhere in the late second round.
[24:48] Speaker 2: Brandon Thorn has the Bengals with the number seventeen offensive
[24:52] Speaker 2: line this year. That's really good for them, right, yes
[24:57] Speaker 2: for them. And also he noted we I had an
[25:00] Speaker 2: ETR retreat this offseason and he came, Brandon thorn did,
[25:04] Speaker 2: and I was just quizzing him on literally everything. Actually,
[25:07] Speaker 2: I drove him home because he was flying out of Chicago.
[25:09] Speaker 2: We did they retreat like an hour and a half
[25:11] Speaker 2: out of Chicago. I made sure that Brandon Thornon sat
[25:13] Speaker 2: next to me on the on the drive home, I
[25:15] Speaker 2: just quizzed him about every offensive line league. He'd been
[25:18] Speaker 2: hanging out with Ted Carris, who is the Bengals center,
[25:23] Speaker 2: And I was like, oh, interesting, So, like, you know,
[25:26] Speaker 2: what did you learn from Ted Carris? Or he did
[25:28] Speaker 2: like he did like a show with him, and Ted
[25:31] Speaker 2: Carris loves the Bengals. Depth on the offensive line to
[25:35] Speaker 2: this kid, Jalen Rivers, he thinks is really promising. And
[25:38] Speaker 2: they have Cody Ford who's made a lot of starts
[25:40] Speaker 2: in the NFL. So not only do the Bengals have
[25:43] Speaker 2: this continuity on the offensive line, they also maybe have
[25:46] Speaker 2: some depth to withstand some injuries. I love to hear that.
[25:50] Speaker 2: Another thing to support your point about the target shair
[25:52] Speaker 2: regarding Chase Brown, the Bengals like have not addressed third
[25:57] Speaker 2: receiver or tight end really. I mean, Eric All is
[26:02] Speaker 2: kind of interesting. Jessiki can do some things, whether you can.
[26:05] Speaker 2: He's barely playable in the NFL because he's, you know,
[26:08] Speaker 2: he's just a total one trick pony. I mean, Chase
[26:11] Speaker 2: Brown is the Bengals third receiver too. Yeah, he's you know,
[26:14] Speaker 2: he's like a virtual every down back and a third
[26:16] Speaker 2: receiver on a high scoring offense behind an upward trending
[26:19] Speaker 2: offensive line. Give him to me.
[26:22] Speaker 1: Yes, It's like again, I'm sitting here, I'm like, I
[26:25] Speaker 1: don't want to overthink this, you know, I know. And
[26:27] Speaker 1: it's crazy because people have this anchoring bias with Chase
[26:29] Speaker 1: Brown because of the way he started last year, but
[26:31] Speaker 1: he dominated after that, Like first month and a half
[26:34] Speaker 1: of Fantasy of the season when when you know they
[26:38] Speaker 1: got flack O and then obviously got Burrow. All right, Evan,
[26:40] Speaker 1: hit me with your next one.
[26:42] Speaker 2: Mike Evans, Do I just like take all the boomer
[26:45] Speaker 2: boomer players or what I mean? No?
[26:46] Speaker 3: You got look you you have?
[26:47] Speaker 1: You have a non boomer on this list that we'll
[26:50] Speaker 1: get to eventually. Okay, yeah, this is a boomer pick,
[26:52] Speaker 1: but I'm.
[26:53] Speaker 2: Leaning it into the bit, you know, the boomer bit
[26:56] Speaker 2: hardcore here. Mike Evans has a chance to be an
[27:00] Speaker 2: absolute volume monster in San Francisco this year. Ricky pearsall
[27:04] Speaker 2: already out for the year. George Kittle tore's achilles in
[27:08] Speaker 2: January and turns thirty three in October. Christian McCaffrey is thirty.
[27:14] Speaker 2: He had the most carries and touches of his career
[27:17] Speaker 2: last year. The forty nine ers or so desperate they
[27:19] Speaker 2: to bring back probably washed Deebo Samuel purely out of
[27:23] Speaker 2: desperation at the start of training camp. I know, Mike
[27:27] Speaker 2: Evans is thirty three with a seemingly increasing propensity to
[27:33] Speaker 2: soft tissue injuries, which is a little bit scary, But
[27:36] Speaker 2: he is Kyle Shanahan's new X receiver with high quality
[27:41] Speaker 2: quarterback play from Brock Purdy in otherwise extremely fragile forty
[27:46] Speaker 2: nine ers skill position group. So this year, and by
[27:50] Speaker 2: the way, his ADP has been going down lately because
[27:52] Speaker 2: there was something about I don't know, some injury that
[27:55] Speaker 2: does not matter at all, so people are really scared
[27:58] Speaker 2: about that, and his has been trending downward this year.
[28:02] Speaker 2: We can get a future first ballot Hall of Famer
[28:05] Speaker 2: in a juicy fantasy environment at like a fifth or
[28:09] Speaker 2: even sixth round cost. Yeah, I think he deserves to
[28:12] Speaker 2: be going closer to the third or the fourth round turn.
[28:14] Speaker 2: So I have a ton of Mike Evans this year,
[28:18] Speaker 2: and I plan on cashing a lot of checks with
[28:22] Speaker 2: Mike Evans scoring a ton of touchdowns.
[28:25] Speaker 1: I've I've done a I don't want to say one
[28:27] Speaker 1: to eighty because I wasn't out on Evans, but I've
[28:28] Speaker 1: gotten way into Evans.
[28:30] Speaker 3: Over the last month or so.
[28:32] Speaker 1: Let's go and thinking about the situation and thinking about
[28:35] Speaker 1: it's kind of crazy that Evans ADP, like you said,
[28:38] Speaker 1: has gone down post Ricky Pierce all injury, right like
[28:42] Speaker 1: you would think that he'd go up at least half around.
[28:44] Speaker 1: But obviously this like other injury that's lingering, that's there
[28:47] Speaker 1: is scaring some people off, and you know, I get it,
[28:50] Speaker 1: like this is I think we could agree that it's
[28:52] Speaker 1: at least like a volatile pick, right because you know
[28:54] Speaker 1: he's older, you know, the injury stuff exists, and market
[28:58] Speaker 1: score his one of his top So I've mentioned this
[29:00] Speaker 1: on the show before is unfortunately Alan Robinson's loan season
[29:04] Speaker 1: with the Rams, where yeah, so like there is that
[29:08] Speaker 1: like fear in the back of my mind where I'm like,
[29:10] Speaker 1: what if the dude is dust and this is the
[29:12] Speaker 1: But then you sit back and you look at what
[29:15] Speaker 1: happened last year in Tampa Bay. Not only did Ameca
[29:18] Speaker 1: Buca really suffer from the Baker mayfield play and have
[29:22] Speaker 1: outside the top one hundred catchable targets rate, Mike Evans
[29:25] Speaker 1: did too. And now you're moving him to San Francisco, where,
[29:28] Speaker 1: like you said, there's a lot of volume potential, but
[29:31] Speaker 1: also he's been a down the field threat throughout his career.
[29:34] Speaker 1: Even last year's twelfth year in the league eighty ninth
[29:36] Speaker 1: percentile a dot, he's getting down the field.
[29:39] Speaker 3: Brock perty number one in the.
[29:41] Speaker 1: NFL and completion percentage on twenty plus air yard throws
[29:44] Speaker 1: last year and over the last three years combined, he
[29:46] Speaker 1: has been the best quarterback at completing twenty plus airyard
[29:50] Speaker 1: throws in the NFL over this time. Now you can
[29:53] Speaker 1: say scheme, you can say whatever. Brock Perty's a baller
[29:56] Speaker 1: like he's a lot better than what people give him
[29:58] Speaker 1: credit for, still to this day. So I think the
[30:01] Speaker 1: match here is incredible. And then you think about what
[30:05] Speaker 1: they might do close to the end zone, and if
[30:08] Speaker 1: they're worried at all about CMC and his health, and
[30:11] Speaker 1: obviously if CMC were to go down, their backups just
[30:14] Speaker 1: aren't experienced and solid enough that they would rely on
[30:17] Speaker 1: them close to the end zone. Then all of a
[30:19] Speaker 1: sudden it turns into a Devonte Adams situation from last
[30:21] Speaker 1: year right in LA And I could just see this
[30:26] Speaker 1: really really, I mean, like I said, I do think
[30:28] Speaker 1: that this is a higher volatile selection. But when you're
[30:31] Speaker 1: at that five six turn, which is where he goes
[30:34] Speaker 1: and managed season long leagues like early sixth round, you
[30:37] Speaker 1: should be shooting for upside.
[30:39] Speaker 3: You should just be going for it. And to me,
[30:41] Speaker 3: if you're getting.
[30:42] Speaker 1: Mike Evans as your wide receiver, three, or even wide
[30:44] Speaker 1: receiver four, which is very possible. That's crazy in this environment,
[30:48] Speaker 1: that just seems pretty crazy. Next one on my list,
[30:51] Speaker 1: I will go, you know what I'm gonna go with
[30:55] Speaker 1: Malik Willis. This one, to me is more game theory
[30:59] Speaker 1: than anything else else. It's a why would you not
[31:01] Speaker 1: do this kind of kind of situation where in most
[31:04] Speaker 1: you know, home leagues, most managed leagues, you're gonna have
[31:08] Speaker 1: a pretty shallow, you know, bench or roster situation where
[31:13] Speaker 1: there's gonna be enough starting quarterbacks and usable quarterbacks.
[31:17] Speaker 3: On your waiver wire.
[31:18] Speaker 1: And even if even if they're not, like even if
[31:20] Speaker 1: you're entering the league and you're like, oh my league's
[31:21] Speaker 1: really deep, it's a fourteen team or whatever, and you know,
[31:24] Speaker 1: we start multiple flex spots in our bench, YadA, YadA, YadA.
[31:27] Speaker 1: I think that you compare Malik Willis with a more
[31:29] Speaker 1: stable piece like Bo Nix or something and just have
[31:32] Speaker 1: have have a solid quarterback that you know will be
[31:34] Speaker 1: able to get you something.
[31:35] Speaker 3: And I still think Nix has some upside too.
[31:38] Speaker 1: And then obviously Malik Willis being that like insanely volatile,
[31:43] Speaker 1: super high upside, super low floor type of player. But
[31:46] Speaker 1: I would argue that the floor is not as low
[31:49] Speaker 1: as what people might think. He had three starts in
[31:51] Speaker 1: Green Bay, he averaged fifty eight rushing yards in a
[31:54] Speaker 1: rushing touchdown per game. It's eleven point eight points per
[31:57] Speaker 1: game with his legs. We've had twenty five quarterbacks seasons
[32:00] Speaker 1: where the quarter since twenty eleven where the quarterback had
[32:03] Speaker 1: seven or more points per game via rushing. So that's
[32:05] Speaker 1: far below where Malik Willis was at. Malik Willis is
[32:08] Speaker 1: almost definitely gonna hit seven points per game via rushing
[32:12] Speaker 1: this season. That's you know, it's a higher end number
[32:14] Speaker 1: for sure, but he's also like borderline prolific as a runner,
[32:18] Speaker 1: Like we've already seen that in the NFL. That's that's
[32:20] Speaker 1: what he was as a prospect. And so basically I
[32:23] Speaker 1: looked at quarterbacks who had three hundred and more attempts
[32:26] Speaker 1: in the season and then hit seven or more points
[32:28] Speaker 1: per game with their legs. We had twenty five of them,
[32:30] Speaker 1: so they were playing good number of games all while
[32:33] Speaker 1: getting it done on the ground.
[32:34] Speaker 2: Right.
[32:35] Speaker 1: Of those twenty five seasons, only three of them ranked
[32:38] Speaker 1: outside the top ten in points per game at quarterback. Now,
[32:42] Speaker 1: obviously you're getting skewed, you know, skewed results to a
[32:45] Speaker 1: degree with like good passers like Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen.
[32:49] Speaker 1: But the point remains that none of those guys ranked
[32:52] Speaker 1: outside the top twenty, which is where Malik Willis is
[32:55] Speaker 1: being drafted right now.
[32:56] Speaker 3: And I think when I think about Willis.
[32:59] Speaker 1: I'm basically saying this is a Justin Fields type bet
[33:03] Speaker 1: that we've been making over the last three years in fantasy,
[33:06] Speaker 1: where we actually knew that Fields was a questionable passer,
[33:11] Speaker 1: you know, over the last handful of years that we've
[33:12] Speaker 1: been drafting him, But we've been drafting him because when
[33:14] Speaker 1: he starts, he gives us usable weeks. He's a very
[33:17] Speaker 1: usable player, and he gives us spiked weeks whenever he
[33:20] Speaker 1: has just two passing touchdowns because of what he can
[33:22] Speaker 1: do with his legs. So this really comes down to
[33:24] Speaker 1: the fact of what if Malik Willis is actually decent
[33:27] Speaker 1: at throwing the football, what if he's a much better
[33:30] Speaker 1: passer than what the market is just assuming because of
[33:33] Speaker 1: this change in scenery and you know, his kind of
[33:35] Speaker 1: career trajectory, and the fact that, like you and I
[33:38] Speaker 1: have been doing this for a while, Evan, have you
[33:40] Speaker 1: seen a wide receiver room as bad as Miami's entering
[33:43] Speaker 1: a season.
[33:44] Speaker 2: No, I don't think I have.
[33:46] Speaker 1: Like I think it's the worst pass catching room that
[33:49] Speaker 1: I've ever seen in the I mean, I've been doing
[33:51] Speaker 1: this since twenty eleven, twenty twelve, you've been.
[33:52] Speaker 2: Doing you have a chan But in terms of wide
[33:55] Speaker 2: receiver and tight end unit, no.
[33:57] Speaker 1: It's got to be the worst, right, Yeah, And so
[33:59] Speaker 1: like that's very scary for sure, and I think, but
[34:02] Speaker 1: I also think that's what's keeping this price lower. If
[34:04] Speaker 1: he had one alpha, I think he'd be going like
[34:07] Speaker 1: four or five spots higher in quarterback rank where he's
[34:10] Speaker 1: going after QB twenty consistently. So to me, this is
[34:13] Speaker 1: more of a throw that Dart. I'm not saying that
[34:17] Speaker 1: Malik Willis is going to be a stud. I'm saying
[34:18] Speaker 1: we don't know, and the market is kind of assuming
[34:21] Speaker 1: right now that it does know. What we do know
[34:23] Speaker 1: is that he's a great rusher and that often wins
[34:26] Speaker 1: in fantasy football.
[34:27] Speaker 3: So I'm going to lean into that.
[34:28] Speaker 2: So I could say a ton of negative things in
[34:31] Speaker 2: painting an extremely negative picture about Malik Willis right now.
[34:35] Speaker 2: Right however, based on his draft cost, I don't really
[34:40] Speaker 2: care about the negatives right regardless of format where I'm
[34:43] Speaker 2: drafting him. I love drafting him in Best Ball, but
[34:47] Speaker 2: when he's going as late as he yet as he is,
[34:49] Speaker 2: I think you just think about the positives and what
[34:52] Speaker 2: you want. At the end of the day, you just
[34:53] Speaker 2: want to make sure. You want to make sure, especially
[34:55] Speaker 2: in Bestball, you want to make sure that he keeps
[34:57] Speaker 2: his job. You want you want this team to not
[35:01] Speaker 2: circle the drain like immediately, like basically what happened with
[35:05] Speaker 2: Justin Fields last year. I mean, that's going to be
[35:06] Speaker 2: a very common comparison. Justin Fields went way earlier than
[35:10] Speaker 2: Malik Willis is going this year, by the way. And
[35:13] Speaker 2: I think that that starts with the offensive line painting
[35:16] Speaker 2: the positive picture because the Dolphins have invested a lot
[35:19] Speaker 2: into this offensive line. They have two mountains of men
[35:24] Speaker 2: at left tackle and left guard in Patrick Paul and
[35:28] Speaker 2: Caden Proctor. It's the biggest left tackle and left guard
[35:32] Speaker 2: combination in the NFL. Speaking of Brandon Thorpe, this is
[35:35] Speaker 2: gonna end up being the Brandon Thorn Show. Brandon Thorn
[35:38] Speaker 2: told me that the Dolphins center Aaron Brewer last year
[35:41] Speaker 2: should have won that Award Protector of the Year best
[35:45] Speaker 2: center in the league according to Brandon Thorn. So you
[35:47] Speaker 2: have two mountains at left guard and left tackle, and
[35:50] Speaker 2: then the best center in the league. And then at
[35:53] Speaker 2: right guard you got Jonah savaianaia second round pick last year.
[35:58] Speaker 2: And then at right tackle you got Austin Jackson who's
[36:01] Speaker 2: made a lot of starts in the NFL. And you
[36:02] Speaker 2: also have a decent backup in Jamari Sawyer. So you
[36:05] Speaker 2: have the makings of a potentially quality offensive line, and
[36:09] Speaker 2: you want that in front of a running quarterback. I
[36:12] Speaker 2: believe you. Just you don't want this situation to get
[36:14] Speaker 2: out of hand. The Dolphins are losing every single week.
[36:17] Speaker 2: They're not even competitive they because they're playing from behind
[36:21] Speaker 2: a lot. They're like, all right, Malik Willis, can't, you know,
[36:23] Speaker 2: battle us back, So we're gonna go to quinn Ewers.
[36:25] Speaker 2: Quinn Ewers, by the way, did not embarrass himself when
[36:28] Speaker 2: he got opportunities last year, and they could be like, well,
[36:30] Speaker 2: maybe he could throw us back into some games because
[36:33] Speaker 2: Malik can't do that. That's what you want to avoid.
[36:36] Speaker 2: And I think that the positivity starts with the offensive line,
[36:39] Speaker 2: and you're hoping for a thousand yard rushing season, which
[36:42] Speaker 2: Justin Fields did have, and I think it's squarely in
[36:47] Speaker 2: Malik Willis's range Pentil outcomes. But you just got to
[36:51] Speaker 2: make sure, you know, you got to try to get
[36:52] Speaker 2: this thing to not circle the drain, like right away.
[36:54] Speaker 1: Yeah, one hundred percent, hundred percent. And again in a
[36:57] Speaker 1: managed season, long league, okay, you drop them. And if
[37:00] Speaker 1: you're worried about what direction this could go in, that's
[37:04] Speaker 1: where I say, Look, people think that I only take
[37:08] Speaker 1: one quarterback on every one of my rosters. I think
[37:10] Speaker 1: it's totally fine, especially if you're in like a twenty
[37:12] Speaker 1: round draft, to take two quarterbacks to get to pair
[37:16] Speaker 1: him with like brock Perty or whichever quarterback out of
[37:18] Speaker 1: that like giant tier ends up falling. Get him with
[37:22] Speaker 1: Malik Willis and you're and you're good to go because
[37:24] Speaker 1: you're at least playing the upside game, you know, with Willis,
[37:26] Speaker 1: and you're able to capture that.
[37:27] Speaker 3: Let's hear your next one.
[37:28] Speaker 2: Evan, Kyle Pitts. This isn't a boomer pick, is it,
[37:31] Speaker 2: Kyle Pitts. No, No, it's just a guy that pisses
[37:34] Speaker 2: everybody off.
[37:35] Speaker 1: Now, the Mike Evans and Javonte Ones were the only
[37:38] Speaker 1: two Boomer picks.
[37:38] Speaker 3: Okay he throughout Okay, yeah, thanks.
[37:41] Speaker 2: So I am well aware that Kyle Pitts was a
[37:43] Speaker 2: perennial disappointment and borderline NFL draft bust from twenty twenty
[37:48] Speaker 2: two through twenty twenty four. He tore his PCL in
[37:52] Speaker 2: twenty twenty two. We've seen what Ricky Piersoll, Breshad Perryman,
[37:59] Speaker 2: brock Hours, Dalton Kincaid. I mean, just an injury that
[38:03] Speaker 2: will strip away years from your career if not end
[38:07] Speaker 2: it outright. Kyle Pitts has bounced back from that. It
[38:11] Speaker 2: also didn't help him that Arthur Smith never liked Kyle Pitts.
[38:14] Speaker 2: I mean, can you think of a more anti Arthur
[38:17] Speaker 2: Smith player than Kyle Pitts. No, And Kyle Pitts first part,
[38:21] Speaker 2: was not a good player when he was coming off
[38:23] Speaker 2: the PCL injury in twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four,
[38:26] Speaker 2: so it is easy to forget that. Of course, Kyle
[38:28] Speaker 2: Pits did win the Mackie Award in twenty twenty. There
[38:30] Speaker 2: was a fourth overall pick in the twenty twenty one draft.
[38:34] Speaker 2: He had over one thousand yards as a rookie last year,
[38:37] Speaker 2: he's finally healthy. He finishes second among tight ends, behind
[38:41] Speaker 2: only Trey McBride in targets and catches. The Falcons loved
[38:45] Speaker 2: him enough to give him the franchise tag, and then
[38:49] Speaker 2: they gave him an extension with thirty six million dollars guaranteed,
[38:53] Speaker 2: the most in the league for any tight end. Kevin
[38:57] Speaker 2: Stefanski has a very tight end friendly hitory. The pass
[39:02] Speaker 2: catcher corps is just completely barren behind Drake London and
[39:06] Speaker 2: Bjean Robinson to the extent that we're talking about third
[39:10] Speaker 2: round pick Zachariah Branch as a potential, you know, significant
[39:14] Speaker 2: early contributor. And Kyle Pitts is going on age twenty six.
[39:19] Speaker 2: He is firmly in his prime. So a lot of
[39:21] Speaker 2: things have worked against Kyle Pitts in his career. I
[39:24] Speaker 2: don't think that things are working against him anymore. And
[39:27] Speaker 2: I also think that Tua is sort of the perfect
[39:30] Speaker 2: quarterback to just pepper Kyle Pitts with targets. So I
[39:34] Speaker 2: have Kyle Pitts as my tight end five ahead of
[39:38] Speaker 2: Tucker Craft, Sam Laporta, and Harold Fannin.
[39:42] Speaker 1: I was going to ask you because I see a
[39:44] Speaker 1: lot of discussion on social media about like which quarterback
[39:47] Speaker 1: would be better for this player for that player. My
[39:51] Speaker 1: stance on the Falcon and I want to hear if
[39:52] Speaker 1: you agree my stance on the Falcons quarterback situation is
[39:55] Speaker 1: from a fantasy perspective. I just want Tua to start
[39:58] Speaker 1: because he throws catchable tar like he's not He's not
[40:02] Speaker 1: the most friendly from like a oh, this team is
[40:04] Speaker 1: going to dominate perspective, But we want, like in the end,
[40:08] Speaker 1: we do want that PPR scammy kind of look in
[40:11] Speaker 1: our in fantasy. We just want these guys to get
[40:13] Speaker 1: easy looks, and I think that we'll see easier looks
[40:16] Speaker 1: with Tua. Would you agree with that?
[40:18] Speaker 2: Absolutely?
[40:20] Speaker 1: Okay, Okay, it's good that we're on the same page.
[40:23] Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna move on to my next player.
[40:26] Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with a tight end also, And I
[40:28] Speaker 1: haven't talked about him that much, but he's been a
[40:30] Speaker 1: target in the Draft Guide since the guide launched at
[40:33] Speaker 1: the beginning of July, and I do want to give
[40:36] Speaker 1: him some love on the shows that people know that
[40:38] Speaker 1: I am in on him this year, and that's Dalton kincaid.
[40:42] Speaker 3: I was actually more so like on the cell side
[40:44] Speaker 3: with him.
[40:45] Speaker 1: Last year's he was doing some unsustainable stuff in the
[40:47] Speaker 1: touchdown column, but he did finish last dude. He finished
[40:50] Speaker 1: last year with a two point seventy to nine yards
[40:52] Speaker 1: per run rate, which is absolutely bananas. Yeah, yeah, just
[40:58] Speaker 1: a crazy yards per run rate. But he ran a
[41:00] Speaker 1: route on just fifty one percent of Buffalo's dropbacks, which
[41:02] Speaker 1: was outside the top thirty among relevant tight ends. But
[41:07] Speaker 1: that yards per hour run rate was top seven since
[41:09] Speaker 1: twenty eleven and Kittle, George Kittle, has three of those
[41:12] Speaker 1: in the top seven because he's just a freak. So
[41:14] Speaker 1: we're talking about like literal elite company with what Kinkaid
[41:18] Speaker 1: did last season. He finished tight end fourteen because of
[41:22] Speaker 1: that lack of usage. The route share was just so bad.
[41:26] Speaker 1: But he was also playing a lot of that year hurt.
[41:29] Speaker 1: You know, he had the PCL injury, which is the
[41:31] Speaker 1: same thing that Ricky Piersoll was dealing with that he
[41:33] Speaker 1: went back and got surgery for it.
[41:35] Speaker 3: It's yeah, Kyle Pitts.
[41:36] Speaker 1: And this was to be clear two years ago where
[41:40] Speaker 1: Kincaid had that issue and then it lingered into last
[41:43] Speaker 1: year and just continued throughout the year. So we're now
[41:46] Speaker 1: very far removed from that injury, and there are some
[41:49] Speaker 1: favorable reports about Kincaid being healthy right now. And the
[41:52] Speaker 1: way I look at this is really just a math
[41:54] Speaker 1: e weight Number one, I think he's just a good receiver,
[41:56] Speaker 1: like a good player. But then you just think of
[41:58] Speaker 1: this from a mathematical perspective. He led all tight ends
[42:01] Speaker 1: last year, and fantasy points per route run he outpaced
[42:04] Speaker 1: expectation by two touchdowns. Sure, but he's finished inside the
[42:08] Speaker 1: top twenty and fantasy points per route run in each
[42:11] Speaker 1: of his other seasons, and he ranks eighth among three
[42:13] Speaker 1: hundred plus route run tight ends and fantasy points per
[42:16] Speaker 1: route run. Since he entered the league, he's been a
[42:18] Speaker 1: top ten tight end within that statistic. So I'm imagining
[42:22] Speaker 1: a world where that route share goes from outside the
[42:25] Speaker 1: top thirty to more maybe top twenty, top fifteen, and
[42:29] Speaker 1: then maybe you have this, you know, DJ Moore being
[42:31] Speaker 1: there opening things up a little bit for him, because
[42:34] Speaker 1: I think you know they're obviously going to be using more.
[42:36] Speaker 3: They need, they need a presence on the perimeter.
[42:38] Speaker 1: They have not had a presence on the perimeter for
[42:40] Speaker 1: years now, which is why that offense has been funneling
[42:42] Speaker 1: through You know Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid and they
[42:46] Speaker 1: just haven't had that player. I think that could open
[42:49] Speaker 1: things up for Kincaid to maintain some of this efficiency,
[42:52] Speaker 1: and if he is healthy, that route share could just
[42:54] Speaker 1: go up, and all of a sudden, you know, you're
[42:56] Speaker 1: getting a guy outside of or at least low end
[42:58] Speaker 1: tight end one, high end tight end two range that
[43:01] Speaker 1: could finish mid range tight end one, that that could
[43:03] Speaker 1: could truly be absolutely a really strong fantasy asset. So
[43:07] Speaker 1: I haven't really been on Kincaid, you know, a lot,
[43:10] Speaker 1: throughout his career so far, but this is the year
[43:12] Speaker 1: that I'm I'm kind of leaning into it.
[43:14] Speaker 2: Man, you really I think you sold me on him
[43:17] Speaker 2: because he's another guy I've been like, should I move
[43:19] Speaker 2: him up?
[43:20] Speaker 1: Yes? It just takes a little bit of movement from
[43:22] Speaker 1: a rout chair perspective for him to like legitimately dominate,
[43:25] Speaker 1: you know.
[43:26] Speaker 2: Just a little bit. Yeah, and we know we're getting
[43:28] Speaker 2: better health.
[43:29] Speaker 3: Right, So where do you.
[43:31] Speaker 2: Have him.
[43:33] Speaker 1: Right now? I think I have him around. Yeah, I
[43:36] Speaker 1: haven't met tight end ten.
[43:39] Speaker 2: Gosh, I got to move him up, all right, my
[43:41] Speaker 2: last guy. I love this guy, and I think you
[43:44] Speaker 2: do too. No, you definitely do too. Jordan Tyson.
[43:47] Speaker 1: Oh yeah, and any any late round listener knows that.
[43:52] Speaker 2: This has on him throughout the entire process, right.
[43:55] Speaker 3: Oh, he's been my wide receiver one since January.
[43:57] Speaker 2: Yeah, sick.
[43:58] Speaker 3: Yeah.
[43:59] Speaker 2: So Jordan Tyson is going to open his career in
[44:03] Speaker 2: like the greatest environment ever created for maximum box score production.
[44:09] Speaker 2: I mean, I guess with the exception of Chris Olabe
[44:11] Speaker 2: being there. But the Saints play indoors. They are set
[44:15] Speaker 2: up for shootouts. They're gonna have to compensate for a
[44:17] Speaker 2: bad defense that lost Brian Breze, a starting defensive tackle
[44:21] Speaker 2: recently for the season. They're coached by Kellen Moore, who
[44:24] Speaker 2: I think is a proven talent maximizer who emphasizes tempo
[44:28] Speaker 2: and play volume. Kellen Moore wants to lead the NFL
[44:31] Speaker 2: in offensive snaps every single year. Again, Brandon Thorn, Saints
[44:36] Speaker 2: had the seventh best offensive line in the league. So
[44:40] Speaker 2: that's really good for you know, just environmental concerns. In
[44:44] Speaker 2: the Fantasy playoffs weeks fifteen through seventeen, the Saints played
[44:47] Speaker 2: the Bucks, the Cardinals and the Falcons love that. And
[44:52] Speaker 2: then Nick Underhill was talking to him the other day
[44:55] Speaker 2: and he's watching training camp practice. He's like, he literally
[44:59] Speaker 2: said that he thinks that Jordan Tyson might already be
[45:01] Speaker 2: the best player on the Saints roster.
[45:03] Speaker 1: Yeah, which, by the way, for Underhill is locked into
[45:07] Speaker 1: the Saints more than any other person on the beach.
[45:09] Speaker 3: He's amazing at what he does with the Saints.
[45:11] Speaker 2: He knows yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, he knows everything. And
[45:14] Speaker 2: he told us like weeks in advance that the Saints
[45:16] Speaker 2: were going to take Jordan Tyson at number eight overall. Yeah,
[45:19] Speaker 2: and nailed it. So I have Jordan Tyson. It's getting ridiculous.
[45:23] Speaker 2: I've meant fifty one overall, which is like thirty five
[45:26] Speaker 2: spots ahead of his ADP. That might be irresponsible, but
[45:31] Speaker 2: I want Jordan Tyson on literally every single fantasy roster
[45:37] Speaker 2: that I draft. Yeah, in twenty twenty.
[45:39] Speaker 1: Six, Yeah, yeah, I couldn't agree more. You know, people
[45:43] Speaker 1: know throughout the process he was my wide receiver.
[45:45] Speaker 2: One.
[45:47] Speaker 1: His analytical profile was bonkers ninety ninth percentile breakout score,
[45:52] Speaker 1: which is the most predictive metric that I have at
[45:54] Speaker 1: wide receiver, even if you look at like ADP trends historically.
[45:58] Speaker 1: This is kind of interesting since twenty fourteen, we've had
[46:01] Speaker 1: nine rookie wide receivers drafted at wide receiver nineteen to
[46:04] Speaker 1: forty two, so like a middle round range at wide
[46:06] Speaker 1: receiver who entered the league with a ZAP score above ninety,
[46:10] Speaker 1: which is where Jordan Tyson currently sits. The other names
[46:13] Speaker 1: in that group are Malik Neighbors, Jackson Smith and Jigba
[46:18] Speaker 1: Drake London, Jamar Chase, Jalen Wattle, Ceedee Lamb, Amari Cooper,
[46:21] Speaker 1: Mike Evans, and Sammy Watkins. The average player there averaged
[46:25] Speaker 1: fourteen point two PPO points per game as rookies, and
[46:28] Speaker 1: only two of them failed to outperform ADP expectation, and
[46:32] Speaker 1: one of those misses was Amari Cooper, who had a
[46:34] Speaker 1: good rookie season. He just was drafted really really high
[46:36] Speaker 1: that year, so his ADP expectation was higher. And then
[46:40] Speaker 1: you know, you mentioned the Chris Olave thing. This is
[46:42] Speaker 1: what's kind of driven me a little bit nuts about
[46:44] Speaker 1: this situation. I think the two compliment each other incredibly well.
[46:48] Speaker 1: Like Jordan Tyson is a he can be a zone
[46:51] Speaker 1: beater underneath kind of player, which which is why I
[46:55] Speaker 1: think that he might be a more favorable I mean,
[46:57] Speaker 1: I like him much more as a value for versus
[47:00] Speaker 1: a Lave right now, But a Lave has always been
[47:03] Speaker 1: really good at against man and stretching the defense and
[47:08] Speaker 1: going vertical, right like, That's that's always been his game
[47:11] Speaker 1: because he can create such a good separation in doing that.
[47:14] Speaker 1: And so when you look at how the game of
[47:16] Speaker 1: fantasy football is played, I think there's some chance that
[47:20] Speaker 1: at least during like the second half of the season,
[47:23] Speaker 1: we see Jordan Tyson just matching Chris a Lave from
[47:26] Speaker 1: a production standpoint and getting as much volume as a
[47:29] Speaker 1: Lave from a production standpoint, because he might see some
[47:32] Speaker 1: of those easier looks in the offense. It's similar to
[47:34] Speaker 1: the argument of like Luther Burden versus Romadunze, where the
[47:38] Speaker 1: Adunze stuff is more difficult for me to really jump
[47:40] Speaker 1: onto because yes, like he you might love him as
[47:44] Speaker 1: a wide receiver, he might be incredible, you know, by
[47:47] Speaker 1: your eyes and your you know, whatever analysis you're doing,
[47:50] Speaker 1: But in the end, you still have to look at
[47:51] Speaker 1: how this player is being placed within this offense and
[47:54] Speaker 1: used in this offense, and Burden is playing more of
[47:57] Speaker 1: that layup role for fantasy purposes. The the higher catchable
[48:01] Speaker 1: target role you know, the scheme of open kind of
[48:04] Speaker 1: role because he's so good after the catch, and I
[48:06] Speaker 1: think that, you know, I'm not saying that Jordan Tyson's
[48:08] Speaker 1: a Luther Burton player, because they're not really alike at
[48:10] Speaker 1: all from that perspective, but Tyson can get a lot
[48:12] Speaker 1: of those shorter a lot of that shorter stuff where
[48:15] Speaker 1: I think it could be peppered with looks in this offense.
[48:17] Speaker 1: I mean, we're already seeing some of these clips from
[48:20] Speaker 1: practice which are just I mean, it's just bonkers his
[48:23] Speaker 1: route running ability. But I'm with you, man, I think
[48:26] Speaker 1: Jordan Tyson, you know, again, he's been one of those guys.
[48:28] Speaker 1: I've had him ranked over Carnell Tate all summer in
[48:31] Speaker 1: Redraft and in Dynasty.
[48:33] Speaker 3: But I feel just so much better about this environment
[48:36] Speaker 3: than I.
[48:36] Speaker 1: Do Tates in the end, you know, where I think
[48:38] Speaker 1: that like we might look back and say, like Tate's
[48:41] Speaker 1: a better real life player or whatever the case may be.
[48:43] Speaker 1: I don't think that's going to be the case, but
[48:44] Speaker 1: I could see that happening. But I just think that
[48:47] Speaker 1: what matters in fantasy football, Jordan Tyson can do very well,
[48:52] Speaker 1: and that's what we're worried about here.
[48:54] Speaker 2: Another boomer take. But you know these guys Jordan Tyson, Risolova,
[49:00] Speaker 2: they kind of remind me from a skill set standpoint,
[49:03] Speaker 2: and they and they and they of course they play
[49:05] Speaker 2: indoors of like Tory Holt and Isaac Bruce. There we go. Yeah,
[49:08] Speaker 2: I mean they're not like super like from a skill
[49:11] Speaker 2: set standpoint too, Like they're not super physical receivers. They're
[49:14] Speaker 2: not gonna run you over, but they're like super bendy
[49:16] Speaker 2: and flexible and fast and they catch everything and they're
[49:21] Speaker 2: just like really really good at playing wide receiver. And
[49:24] Speaker 2: that's what Jordan Tyson and and Chris o'lave are. So yeah,
[49:29] Speaker 2: I'm hoping that Tyler Shuck can be the the Kurt
[49:31] Speaker 2: Warner or you know, even the even the Trent Green.
[49:35] Speaker 1: Yes, yes, wow, I'm not excited to hear Trent Green
[49:39] Speaker 1: on a on a podcast today. I almost I actually
[49:42] Speaker 1: talked about Shuck on the show. I just went with
[49:45] Speaker 1: Malik Willis because I think it's an easier.
[49:47] Speaker 2: Well, you know, the way that we we are wrong
[49:50] Speaker 2: about the Saints is if Tyler Shuck just isn't any good.
[49:53] Speaker 3: Yes, And I think that's a real, real possibility.
[49:56] Speaker 1: Is you know, but I just like, like you said,
[49:59] Speaker 1: I try what they have in front of him right
[50:01] Speaker 1: now and including the coaching staff, you know, so it's
[50:04] Speaker 1: a little bit easier to buy into just from that perspective.
[50:07] Speaker 1: The last one I want to get to is Jalen Waddle.
[50:10] Speaker 1: The dude's always been really good on a per route
[50:12] Speaker 1: run basis. He had a two point one nine yards
[50:14] Speaker 1: per out run last year, twenty four percent targets per
[50:17] Speaker 1: out run eleven and a half percent first downs per
[50:20] Speaker 1: rout run, which was really strong. He's entering year six,
[50:23] Speaker 1: that's usually a peak performance year, especially with earlier round
[50:26] Speaker 1: wide receivers for them to give you the most fantasy production.
[50:30] Speaker 1: Now he's in Denver, they've been twelfth in the NFL
[50:32] Speaker 1: in touchdowns per game over the last two years, with
[50:35] Speaker 1: bow Knicks fifth and pass attemps per game, So it's
[50:38] Speaker 1: a more past friendly offense than what Jalen Wattle was
[50:43] Speaker 1: leaving or where he was in Miami over the same
[50:45] Speaker 1: time frame, Miami was twenty fourth in touchdowns per game
[50:48] Speaker 1: in twenty first in pass attemps per game. So this
[50:50] Speaker 1: is definitely a change in a favorable direction for Waddle.
[50:55] Speaker 1: You know that Wattle's only played two seasons of his
[50:57] Speaker 1: career in an offense with a positive PA per play rate,
[51:01] Speaker 1: and that was in twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three.
[51:03] Speaker 1: I believe in those two seasons two point five to
[51:06] Speaker 1: nine and two point sixty three yards per out run rates,
[51:09] Speaker 1: he scored fourteen point two and fifteen point three Fantasy
[51:12] Speaker 1: points per game PPR points per game. But that was
[51:14] Speaker 1: also with Tyreek Hill. Where Hill was was it was
[51:17] Speaker 1: peak Tyreek Hill. He's getting a you know, twenty eight
[51:19] Speaker 1: to thirty percent target share, and so obviously Jalen Wattle's
[51:22] Speaker 1: not seeing all of that work or as much as
[51:25] Speaker 1: he could. I'm not really worried about the competition in Denver.
[51:28] Speaker 1: I think Jalen Wattle is like, by far the best
[51:31] Speaker 1: talent on that team right now. I know Courtland Sutton
[51:34] Speaker 1: always has believers in fantasy and and he's a fine player,
[51:37] Speaker 1: right he's but but also he's very good, yeah right,
[51:41] Speaker 1: but he's also on the wrong side of the age
[51:43] Speaker 1: curve at this point. I think that, if anything, the
[51:46] Speaker 1: guy that I've been targeting most is.
[51:47] Speaker 3: Pat Bryant out.
[51:49] Speaker 1: Of this offense, you know slot, Yeah, right, I mean
[51:52] Speaker 1: this that's what we've seen work in the in the
[51:54] Speaker 1: Peyton offense historically. And I also think that he can
[51:56] Speaker 1: play a little X like he's he's capable of.
[51:59] Speaker 3: Moving to the outside.
[52:00] Speaker 1: So, like I'm worried about Courtland, So I've been worried
[52:02] Speaker 1: about Like I faded Courtland Sutton last year too, I'm
[52:04] Speaker 1: gonna be fading him again this year. Mostly this year though,
[52:07] Speaker 1: it's a really easy case because I think Jalen Waddle
[52:10] Speaker 1: is going to play that Z role in the offense,
[52:13] Speaker 1: which is if you guys remember there was like a
[52:15] Speaker 1: five week stretch last year where Troy Franklin was outpacing
[52:20] Speaker 1: and out targeting Courtland Sutton and he was playing this
[52:23] Speaker 1: role in that offense, and eventually the Broncos are like,
[52:26] Speaker 1: you're not good enough to be to be doing this.
[52:28] Speaker 1: You know, we're gonna start like in that playoff game,
[52:31] Speaker 1: especially like Pat Bryant was about to eat before he
[52:33] Speaker 1: got injured, You remember that in the.
[52:35] Speaker 3: To start that game.
[52:36] Speaker 1: Yeah, So like they they started moving right, yeah, and
[52:39] Speaker 1: they started moving things around, Like I think that like
[52:43] Speaker 1: Jalen Waddle, because during that stretch, Troy Franklin was getting
[52:46] Speaker 1: like eight plus targets per game. Uh, And that's when
[52:49] Speaker 1: everyone was like, oh, is he overtaking Courtland Sutton?
[52:52] Speaker 3: Is he the better?
[52:52] Speaker 1: And it's not so much that it's it's the scheme
[52:54] Speaker 1: that was allowing Troy Franklin to get as much love
[52:57] Speaker 1: as he was getting because he was moving around the formation,
[52:59] Speaker 1: getting as favorable matchups. They're gonna do that with Jalen Wattle,
[53:02] Speaker 1: and Jalen Wattle is a lot better than Troy Franklin,
[53:05] Speaker 1: like like light years better than Troy Franklin. So I
[53:08] Speaker 1: am so so excited about what Wattle can do. You know,
[53:12] Speaker 1: I think in a lot of home leagues you end
[53:13] Speaker 1: up seeing him go like late fourth into the fifth.
[53:16] Speaker 1: I think that you could easily argue him all the
[53:18] Speaker 1: way up into that top of the like third round
[53:21] Speaker 1: tier of wide.
[53:22] Speaker 3: Receivers, you know.
[53:22] Speaker 1: Like, I think that he is very close to and
[53:25] Speaker 1: I'm I'm very high on like DeVante Smith.
[53:27] Speaker 3: I really like Zay Flowers.
[53:28] Speaker 1: I would still take them over Waddle, but I think
[53:31] Speaker 1: Wattle's like next with a mecha Buca and stuff like.
[53:33] Speaker 1: I think that the upside case is definitely there with
[53:36] Speaker 1: Wattle this year, Whereas if you look at a lot
[53:39] Speaker 1: of these season long platforms. He's like wide receiver twenty
[53:41] Speaker 1: or later. Because you know, I think he's burned a
[53:44] Speaker 1: lot of fantasy managers, right because he's he's he's one
[53:47] Speaker 1: of you know, he's got the Deontay Johnson syndrome where
[53:49] Speaker 1: he gets hurt and then he leaves games. Then you know,
[53:51] Speaker 1: it's just a very frustrating player to have. But when
[53:54] Speaker 1: he's healthy, man, he's just one of the best wide
[53:56] Speaker 1: receivers in the game.
[53:57] Speaker 2: The Broncos agree with you. They they gave him a
[53:59] Speaker 2: first and a third to go get him. Yeah, poor
[54:03] Speaker 2: Marvin Mims, and we mentioned like every Broncos receiver, he
[54:05] Speaker 2: didn't even get him. I guess he's just a return
[54:07] Speaker 2: guy at this point.
[54:09] Speaker 1: I've just I've just you know, graduated just viewing him
[54:12] Speaker 1: as a gadget kind of player, right, you know.
[54:15] Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean one thing that stuck out in Matt
[54:17] Speaker 2: Harmon's reception perception to me with regard regarding Jalen Wattle,
[54:21] Speaker 2: because he's a player that, as you mentioned, he's sort
[54:24] Speaker 2: of like he's sort of divisive or polarizing, you know,
[54:28] Speaker 2: like some some people just think he sucks, but I
[54:30] Speaker 2: mean he's really really good at winning downfield in that
[54:34] Speaker 2: role that you mentioned that Troy Franklin was sort of
[54:37] Speaker 2: you know, shoehorned into last year. But Jalen Wattle can
[54:40] Speaker 2: still win downfield at an elite rate. And the Broncos
[54:45] Speaker 2: have the best offensive line in the league, so they're
[54:47] Speaker 2: gonna give bo Nick's protection. And bo Nix is sort
[54:50] Speaker 2: of like known as a like a layup passer, you know,
[54:54] Speaker 2: throws a lot of screens, a lot of high percent
[54:56] Speaker 2: of stuff around the line of scrimmage. But he was
[54:59] Speaker 2: fifth in the NFL in air yards last year. Bo
[55:02] Speaker 2: Nix was. Now he had more attempts than he probably
[55:04] Speaker 2: will have this year. But they do want to stretch
[55:08] Speaker 2: the field. Yeah, you know, and that's why they went
[55:11] Speaker 2: and got Jaylen Waddle exactly. So I'm on board.
[55:15] Speaker 1: Yeah, love it, man, I appreciate the time. I love
[55:18] Speaker 1: talking ball with you. Always let everyone know where they
[55:21] Speaker 1: can find you and what you'll you'll be up to
[55:23] Speaker 1: this year.
[55:24] Speaker 2: Yeah, just establish the run dot Com. Michael Leoni and
[55:31] Speaker 2: I will be going head to head for this year's
[55:34] Speaker 2: Man versus Machine. We're taping on Wednesday. JJ and I
[55:38] Speaker 2: are recording this on Monday, but we're taping on Wednesday,
[55:41] Speaker 2: and hopefully we'll be out by maybe Thursday, certainly by Friday.
[55:46] Speaker 2: I'm really excited. We we have a lot of fun
[55:48] Speaker 2: doing that show. You know. Leoni comes at it from
[55:51] Speaker 2: like a super spreadsheet oriented standpoint, and I try to be,
[55:56] Speaker 2: you know, the the ball knower. Yeah, you know, and
[56:01] Speaker 2: he and I beat him in twenty twenty four by
[56:04] Speaker 2: like a hair and he beat me. Although I actually
[56:06] Speaker 2: won this past year by literal hair because Levitan said
[56:11] Speaker 2: because I was really high on Jamison Williams, who was
[56:13] Speaker 2: a freaking league winner by the way. Sure, and then
[56:16] Speaker 2: Levitan gave Leoni the win on Jamison Williams, which was
[56:19] Speaker 2: a bunch of crap, but that wound up tilting it
[56:22] Speaker 2: and Leoni got the win with an asterisk this past year.
[56:26] Speaker 2: So this is like the rubber match year. Love it.
[56:28] Speaker 2: I love it.
[56:28] Speaker 1: Yeah, you guys are you know you guys are are
[56:31] Speaker 1: are friends of the of the business, friends, friends of
[56:33] Speaker 1: Late Round Fantasy. We love you guys, and I'm excited
[56:37] Speaker 1: to see that whenever it releases.
[56:39] Speaker 3: As always, make sure you guys are checking out Late
[56:41] Speaker 3: Round dot com.
[56:42] Speaker 1: Check out the Late Round Draft guide that will be
[56:44] Speaker 1: updated on Friday as usual, I will be back with
[56:49] Speaker 1: becoming a Best ball bro and then we have the
[56:51] Speaker 1: Late Round Show, and then we have a mailbag episode
[56:54] Speaker 1: this week, so you guys will hear from me soon. Otherwise,
[56:58] Speaker 1: everyone as usual, Thanks for tuning in.

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