# 1111: Market Score's Most Interesting Projections

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 21 Jul 2026, 24 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/5cb24abb-8f96-422c-86d0-b48d010645c6/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

Late-Round Fantasy Football unveiled a new metric called Market Score last month, and it's already opening up some fascinating ways to evaluate players. One of those is through historical comparables — identifying past players with profiles that closely resemble today's fantasy stars. On Episode 1111, JJ uses those comps to generate player projections and breaks down the 10 most interesting takeaways from the results. Make sure to check out LateRound.com to order the 2026 Draft Guide. And while you're there, become a member! The new Members Hub is the place for rankings and tiers, data dumps, and more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: This is the Late with your host JJ Zacher. Jake Zachers.
[0:11] Speaker 1: What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen in this episode eleven
[0:15] Speaker 1: eleven of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for
[0:19] Speaker 1: tuning in. I'm back from vacation and just like that,
[0:23] Speaker 1: we're firmly in draft season. The Draft Guides Out it
[0:26] Speaker 1: had its first update. The Fantasy Football Expo is this weekend.
[0:29] Speaker 1: It's a great time of year, and it's a time
[0:32] Speaker 1: of year where I start flipping some of my content
[0:34] Speaker 1: on this podcast to be a little bit more player specific.
[0:37] Speaker 1: Over the next handful of weeks, you're gonna hear about
[0:40] Speaker 1: schedule analysis, players to target players, to avoid bold predictions,
[0:44] Speaker 1: all of those admittedly pretty generic fantasy football topics. In
[0:48] Speaker 1: today's topic, it's another player specific one, and it's one
[0:51] Speaker 1: of that I'm going to throw into this rotation every year.
[0:53] Speaker 1: Now that we've established Market Scorer as a new Late
[0:56] Speaker 1: Round Fantasy football metric for those of you who are
[0:59] Speaker 1: just winning and haven't been totally caught up. First off, welcome,
[1:03] Speaker 1: But second, Market Score is a metric that we developed
[1:05] Speaker 1: at Late Round Fantasy this offseason that assigns a score
[1:08] Speaker 1: to a player based on his ADP alongside previous season inputs.
[1:13] Speaker 1: In essence, it's like the ZAP model, except instead of
[1:16] Speaker 1: draft capital, we're looking at ADP. ADP, of course can
[1:20] Speaker 1: be predictive, but we want to create a metric that
[1:23] Speaker 1: utilize that market value alongside other metrics to be even
[1:26] Speaker 1: more predictive than ADP itself. And that's what market score is.
[1:31] Speaker 1: It's more predicted than ADP. If you were to simply
[1:34] Speaker 1: draft off of the market score sheet, you'd have a
[1:37] Speaker 1: better time than if you drafted via ADP. Now, the
[1:40] Speaker 1: Draft Guide has those values and we're working on getting
[1:43] Speaker 1: them on the Late Round dot Com website too. You
[1:45] Speaker 1: can learn more about market score and episode eleven oh five.
[1:49] Speaker 1: To be clear, I don't blindly agree with everything market
[1:51] Speaker 1: score says. To me. It's simply another tool to use
[1:55] Speaker 1: when you're evaluating players, similar to any other metric. I
[1:59] Speaker 1: take markets score in a consideration and it makes me
[2:01] Speaker 1: think twice about some players. It's not my sole evaluation
[2:05] Speaker 1: process that to me would be bad process, but it's
[2:09] Speaker 1: really helpful. And one way that it can be really
[2:12] Speaker 1: helpful aside from the raw score that it produces, is
[2:15] Speaker 1: through comps. We've talked about this before, but I can
[2:19] Speaker 1: find the closest historical comparables for players in the current
[2:22] Speaker 1: season via market score. I look at their market score,
[2:25] Speaker 1: their ADP, and their career year to get a list
[2:28] Speaker 1: of players all ranked by similarity, so the most similar
[2:31] Speaker 1: player gets ranked up top. I can then see how
[2:34] Speaker 1: that player performed in their season to give us an
[2:37] Speaker 1: idea of how the player we're analyzing might perform this year. So,
[2:41] Speaker 1: just for example, Zay Flowers this year, one of his
[2:44] Speaker 1: top comps is Jackson Smith and Jigba's twenty twenty five season.
[2:48] Speaker 1: Pretty awesome. That's a great comp obviously for day Flowers. Now.
[2:53] Speaker 1: I've shared some of this with you already, and there
[2:55] Speaker 1: are more insights from it in the Draft Guide, which
[2:57] Speaker 1: you can order right now on Late round dot com.
[3:00] Speaker 1: It's updated weekly for you. But I took all of
[3:03] Speaker 1: this one step further. I looked at all of the
[3:06] Speaker 1: running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks who currently
[3:09] Speaker 1: have market scores. For running backs and wide outs, it
[3:12] Speaker 1: means that their top one hundred and twenty picks or
[3:15] Speaker 1: picked in the top ten rounds of a twelve team league.
[3:18] Speaker 1: For tight ends and quarterbacks, we're looking at the top
[3:20] Speaker 1: one to eighty. From there, I found the top ten
[3:23] Speaker 1: comps for each player, and from there I found the
[3:26] Speaker 1: average points per game from those ten players, how those
[3:29] Speaker 1: comps actually performed, and I weighed those point per game
[3:33] Speaker 1: outputs by how similar that player scored to the one
[3:36] Speaker 1: that we're analyzing. Now, since this entire episode is based
[3:39] Speaker 1: on this concept, let me run through an example. Let's
[3:41] Speaker 1: go back to Zay Flowers. You get JSN twenty twenty
[3:45] Speaker 1: five as a comp forum, where JSN scored twenty one
[3:49] Speaker 1: point six PPERO points per game, and that's in relevant games.
[3:53] Speaker 1: I took out the final week of the season, and
[3:55] Speaker 1: I'll be doing that for everyone on today's show. But
[3:58] Speaker 1: you also get a high similarity score for Cooper Cups
[4:00] Speaker 1: twenty twenty where Cup was at about fourteen PPR points
[4:03] Speaker 1: per game. When you look at flowers top ten comps,
[4:07] Speaker 1: you get a weighted average about fifteen point four PPR
[4:10] Speaker 1: points per game, which is really really good, and it's
[4:13] Speaker 1: one of the reasons that I like Zay Flowers this year. Now,
[4:16] Speaker 1: to be clear, this is not what market score is.
[4:19] Speaker 1: Market scores is one of the inputs to get those comps.
[4:22] Speaker 1: Market score grades a player from zero to one hundred.
[4:26] Speaker 1: But this is giving us a weighted point per game
[4:28] Speaker 1: average based on historical comps. It's like a next level
[4:32] Speaker 1: look at what market score can do and for what
[4:35] Speaker 1: it's worth. I look back the last two years of
[4:37] Speaker 1: comps and technically these projections they correlate stronger to actual
[4:42] Speaker 1: performance than eighty p's done, which is pretty cool. So,
[4:46] Speaker 1: like I said, I did this for every player this year,
[4:49] Speaker 1: and my goal today is to share with you, from
[4:50] Speaker 1: ten to one the ten most interesting market Score projections
[4:54] Speaker 1: based on these comps and give you a little insight
[4:57] Speaker 1: about where I'm at with those players. So with all
[5:00] Speaker 1: that out of the way, let's do it. I'm in
[5:05] Speaker 1: on the Eagles offense rebounding this year with Kevin Petulo
[5:07] Speaker 1: out of the picture, because I generally don't think it
[5:09] Speaker 1: could have been much worse schematically last year for that team.
[5:12] Speaker 1: Now that being said, market Scorer is looking at previous
[5:15] Speaker 1: season inputs, so it's not that big of a surprise
[5:18] Speaker 1: that it doesn't love Saquon Barkley this year. Market Score
[5:22] Speaker 1: focuses pretty heavily on receiving metrics at running back, and
[5:25] Speaker 1: Barkley hasn't had the most robust volume profile as a
[5:28] Speaker 1: receiver in Philly and last year. Since market score takes
[5:32] Speaker 1: previous season metrics, his low yards per out run was
[5:35] Speaker 1: a red flag entering this year. So in the end,
[5:38] Speaker 1: Barkley's market score leaves him that like RB ten, But
[5:41] Speaker 1: then his market score comp projections equate to RB thirteen,
[5:45] Speaker 1: so even worse. His number two comp is Marshawn Lynch
[5:48] Speaker 1: in year eight, where he scored nineteen point one PPERO
[5:51] Speaker 1: points per game. That's great, but his top comp is
[5:54] Speaker 1: to Marco Murray's twenty seventeen where Murray split a backfield
[5:57] Speaker 1: with Derrick Henry. Now, obviously we're not looking to sit
[5:59] Speaker 1: youuation quite like that, so I'm gonna get two worked
[6:02] Speaker 1: up about those specifics. That's not what these comps are
[6:05] Speaker 1: looking at. Remember it's ADP market score and career year.
[6:10] Speaker 1: But it is a little scary that Saquon has just
[6:12] Speaker 1: one comp in his top ten above eighteen PPR points
[6:16] Speaker 1: per game. That's a heck of a season, don't get
[6:18] Speaker 1: me wrong, but it's also the type of sealing outcome
[6:21] Speaker 1: that we want from a one to two turn pick. Now,
[6:23] Speaker 1: I'm not out or in on Saquon this year. Personally,
[6:26] Speaker 1: I think he's part of that giant cluster of running
[6:28] Speaker 1: backs in that late round one early round two range.
[6:32] Speaker 1: But market score is slightly low on him and the
[6:34] Speaker 1: comp projections they show that too. At number nine. I'm
[6:40] Speaker 1: gonna go to the Jacksonville wide receiver room and I'm
[6:42] Speaker 1: looking at Brian Thomas and Parker Washington. Something they keep
[6:45] Speaker 1: in mind with market score is that it's largely a
[6:48] Speaker 1: median type projection. It's not giving you multiple outputs for
[6:52] Speaker 1: floor and ceiling. It's just giving you a general projected scorer,
[6:55] Speaker 1: which is not a lot different than a general projected
[6:58] Speaker 1: point per game output. So with Jacksonville in that wide
[7:01] Speaker 1: receiver room, and this is the same argument i'd make
[7:03] Speaker 1: for like Chicago too, I'm probably gonna be higher on
[7:07] Speaker 1: some of the players in those rooms than market score is,
[7:10] Speaker 1: because i want to embrace that ambiguity. Even if the
[7:13] Speaker 1: most likely outcome is that no one truly truly emerges.
[7:17] Speaker 1: It's just that someone has a chance to and it's
[7:19] Speaker 1: in a good offense, and if that happens, you're getting
[7:22] Speaker 1: a huge discount on that player. Now, I say all
[7:25] Speaker 1: that because market score is not super high on Jacksonville
[7:28] Speaker 1: wide receivers, market Score looks at market factors and there's
[7:31] Speaker 1: competition in Jacksonville. Based on where these guys are getting drafted.
[7:35] Speaker 1: It likes Brian Thomas more than Parker Washington, but that's
[7:39] Speaker 1: also driven by our ADP sources, which is Fantasy Data's ADP.
[7:42] Speaker 1: There's an eighteen pick gap between Thomas and Washington. You
[7:46] Speaker 1: won't see that in the best ball streets. But that's
[7:49] Speaker 1: also why I think Washington is a good target and
[7:51] Speaker 1: managed season long leaves this year because his ADP on
[7:54] Speaker 1: some platforms like Yahoo, it's really low. I'm willing to
[7:58] Speaker 1: see if his crazy good efficiency last year translates into
[8:01] Speaker 1: this season. You can read more about that in the
[8:04] Speaker 1: Draft guide. Regardless though, when you look at the market
[8:07] Speaker 1: Score comp projections, Brian Thomas's top ten comps bring him
[8:11] Speaker 1: to wide receiver twenty Parker Washington brings him to wide
[8:15] Speaker 1: receiver thirty nine. Thomas is being boosted by some higher
[8:18] Speaker 1: end outcomes. I don't think this is a shock to anyone,
[8:21] Speaker 1: given we know his profiles volatile, but he's got George
[8:24] Speaker 1: Pickens twenty twenty five, for example, as one of his highest.
[8:28] Speaker 1: Five of Thomas's top ten comps are above fifteen PPR
[8:32] Speaker 1: points per game, but then four of them are below
[8:34] Speaker 1: eleven PPR points per game. Parker Washington's are based on
[8:39] Speaker 1: a lower ADP, so actually, based on where these guys
[8:42] Speaker 1: are drafted. ADP wise, their projections don't look terrible. But
[8:46] Speaker 1: at Washington's current ADP, he only has five double digit
[8:49] Speaker 1: PPR point per game comps out of his ten, hence
[8:52] Speaker 1: the reason he's close to wide receiver forty. I think
[8:56] Speaker 1: these two should be back to back in rankings, but
[8:58] Speaker 1: given their prices in manage season long leagues, I like
[9:02] Speaker 1: Washington a lot more as a value. That doesn't mean
[9:04] Speaker 1: that I'm off of Thomas, and these comps are gonna
[9:07] Speaker 1: keep me more neutral and maybe even above market. With Thomas.
[9:10] Speaker 1: It's an offense that I do want pieces of. Tyler
[9:15] Speaker 1: Shuck came out as a QB nine with market score
[9:17] Speaker 1: comp projections. I'm pretty surprised, and I'm excited about it.
[9:21] Speaker 1: I've found that second year quarterbacks are generally really good
[9:23] Speaker 1: bets against ADP. They have substantial downside risk, but they
[9:28] Speaker 1: have more upside versus their cost than any other career
[9:31] Speaker 1: year among fantasy quarterbacks. And generally speaking, with quarterback we're
[9:34] Speaker 1: looking for that ceiling. Now, market Score does not have
[9:38] Speaker 1: Shuck at QB nine. It actually has him at QB fifteen,
[9:41] Speaker 1: which is still higher than most platforms are gonna have him.
[9:44] Speaker 1: My rankings are bullish on him too, because not only
[9:47] Speaker 1: is he a second year player, but he's coming off
[9:49] Speaker 1: a year where he finished strong with almost twenty points
[9:51] Speaker 1: per game over his final six and he proved that
[9:55] Speaker 1: he could bring a little bit extra with his legs.
[9:57] Speaker 1: Add In Kellen Moore's high volume offense Jordan Tyson being
[10:00] Speaker 1: added there, the offensive line looking pretty good, Shuck is
[10:03] Speaker 1: in a good spot to at least have the opportunity
[10:06] Speaker 1: to make that leap this year. The reason he ranked
[10:08] Speaker 1: so high in market score comp projections is because he
[10:11] Speaker 1: drew a year two comp of Carson Wentz back in
[10:13] Speaker 1: twenty seventeen he scored almost twenty two points per game,
[10:17] Speaker 1: and lower down the list at number nine, he got
[10:19] Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes in say twenty eighteen season. Now, I don't
[10:23] Speaker 1: think the latter is going to happen for Shuck, but
[10:25] Speaker 1: there are enough upside comps here to make me not
[10:28] Speaker 1: in agreement with market Score. He's a great late round
[10:31] Speaker 1: option this season. Now on this countdown from ten to one.
[10:36] Speaker 1: My number seven most interesting takeaway from these market score
[10:39] Speaker 1: comp projections is Quinn Shawn Judkins being the RB thirty
[10:43] Speaker 1: two now in regular market score. The thing that we've tested,
[10:46] Speaker 1: we know correlates a lot better than ADP. Judkins comes
[10:50] Speaker 1: into RB twenty two significantly lower, significantly better. The biggest
[10:54] Speaker 1: thing for Judkins this year, and my opinion, is this situation.
[10:57] Speaker 1: The Browns offensive line was horrible last season. Judkins ranked
[11:01] Speaker 1: last among high volume running backs and yards before contact
[11:04] Speaker 1: per attempt. Now we have a huge question market quarterback.
[11:07] Speaker 1: Though I am more bullish than most on Todd Munkin
[11:10] Speaker 1: as head coach. I think he's a pretty good offensive coach.
[11:14] Speaker 1: Another issue for Judkins though, is the pass catching. He
[11:16] Speaker 1: wasn't a huge pass catcher in college, and he ran
[11:19] Speaker 1: a route on just thirty percent of Cleveland's dropbacks last season.
[11:22] Speaker 1: Todd Munkin has historically split that kind of work in
[11:25] Speaker 1: his backfield, So I'm expecting Dylan Samson to play more
[11:28] Speaker 1: of a pass catching role for Cleveland and that's what
[11:31] Speaker 1: Market Scores kind of seeing here. His ranking within market
[11:34] Speaker 1: scores fine, but the comps are legitimately scary. His top
[11:38] Speaker 1: one is Devin Singletary's second year, where his ADP was
[11:40] Speaker 1: about seven spots higher than where Judkins is currently at.
[11:43] Speaker 1: But he scored nine point four PPR points per game.
[11:46] Speaker 1: But among the top ten comps, we've got six with
[11:49] Speaker 1: fewer than ten PPR points per game, only one was
[11:53] Speaker 1: over fourteen. Now, I've been a little bit lower the
[11:56] Speaker 1: consensus with Judkins because I'm worried about the pass catching
[11:59] Speaker 1: and I'm worried about the situation. I didn't even mention
[12:01] Speaker 1: the injury either. But in the end, Judkins isn't far
[12:04] Speaker 1: enough off in my rankings to call him a player
[12:06] Speaker 1: to avoid, even if I'm lower than the market. I
[12:09] Speaker 1: think the talent profile is there too, which makes it
[12:12] Speaker 1: harder to fade a player like this. But there's no
[12:14] Speaker 1: doubt that these comps are scary. We go from one
[12:19] Speaker 1: year two back to another. Let's take a second and
[12:22] Speaker 1: talk about RJ. Harvey. His market score projections put him
[12:26] Speaker 1: at RB fifteen, which is exactly why he made it
[12:30] Speaker 1: on today's list, because that's very surprising for anyone who's
[12:33] Speaker 1: listening to the show this offseason. You know, I started
[12:35] Speaker 1: the off season back in January by calling Harvey a
[12:38] Speaker 1: clear cell, a very clear cell. He wasn't a good
[12:42] Speaker 1: rusher last year, and it seemed very clear that Denver
[12:44] Speaker 1: was going to do something to that backfield. That's something
[12:47] Speaker 1: ended up being re signing JK. Dobbinson then drafting a
[12:50] Speaker 1: solid running back in Joanah Coleman. But I'm now of
[12:53] Speaker 1: the belief, at least from a season long perspective, that
[12:56] Speaker 1: there's some market over correction here. I've seen people say
[12:59] Speaker 1: that Harvey a terrible draft pick this season, and it's
[13:02] Speaker 1: pretty much for the same reasons that I talked about
[13:04] Speaker 1: back in January. Bad rushing yards, overexpected per attempt, Dobbins
[13:08] Speaker 1: outperformed him on the ground, and there wasn't enough consistency.
[13:12] Speaker 1: But he's not priced in like round five anymore. Over
[13:15] Speaker 1: on ESPN, Harvey's going past pick one hundred after JK. Dobbins.
[13:20] Speaker 1: He's back to back with Dobbins on CBS. He's close
[13:22] Speaker 1: to one hundred over on Yahoo, and I get it.
[13:26] Speaker 1: The argument is that he's worse than Dobbins, but we're
[13:29] Speaker 1: also basing that off of rookie season production. And when
[13:33] Speaker 1: I get into round eight, round nine, and so on,
[13:35] Speaker 1: I'm looking purely at ceiling. If it doesn't work out,
[13:39] Speaker 1: it's not gonna kill my team. That's why Harvey's all
[13:42] Speaker 1: of a sudden become intriguing. He had a really good
[13:45] Speaker 1: weighted opportunity last season, and his top ten market score
[13:48] Speaker 1: comps bring him to RB fifteen. Like I said, though,
[13:51] Speaker 1: to be clear, after RB fourteen, there's a very big
[13:54] Speaker 1: gap to RJ. Harvey. I do want to be clear
[13:56] Speaker 1: about that. Harvey, though, gets a couple of really strong
[13:59] Speaker 1: six team plus pp your point per game comps, and
[14:02] Speaker 1: David Montgomery's year two and Todd Gurley's rookie season, only
[14:06] Speaker 1: two of his top ten comps are below ten pper
[14:09] Speaker 1: points per game. I've bought more into Harvey this season,
[14:13] Speaker 1: even if the consensus hasn't. I don't want to be
[14:16] Speaker 1: so concerned about the downside case when we're now so
[14:18] Speaker 1: late in drafts, especially when we know the offensive environment's
[14:22] Speaker 1: really good and we know that ambiguous backfields they have
[14:25] Speaker 1: a chance to bring out really great values. The fact
[14:28] Speaker 1: that his market score comp projections look the way they do,
[14:31] Speaker 1: and for the record, market Score as Harvey as a
[14:33] Speaker 1: very firm RB three this year too. The fact that
[14:36] Speaker 1: market Score in general likes Harvey has made me look
[14:40] Speaker 1: at the situation a whole lot differently, and hopefully you
[14:43] Speaker 1: will too. Market Score hates Mike Evans like way more
[14:48] Speaker 1: than I do. When you look at his top ten comps,
[14:51] Speaker 1: Mike Evans comes out as wide receiver forty one. Now
[14:56] Speaker 1: I do like the fit with San Francisco. I think
[14:58] Speaker 1: there's a lot of touchdown upside Shanahan system. He's not
[15:01] Speaker 1: a fade for me. But I've mentioned this before. One
[15:04] Speaker 1: of Evans' top comps is Alan Robinson's twenty twenty two
[15:08] Speaker 1: when he went to the Rams frightening. He also gets
[15:11] Speaker 1: Vincent Jackson Rest in Peace in twenty fifteen and eleventh
[15:14] Speaker 1: year player who had an eighty p seventieth overall who
[15:17] Speaker 1: scored ten point seven PPR points per game. There's year
[15:21] Speaker 1: ten Michael Crabtree under nine PPR points per game, Year
[15:23] Speaker 1: seven Christian Kirk, year eleven Wes Welker. They were both
[15:27] Speaker 1: under the nine mark. There's only one player in evans
[15:30] Speaker 1: komp list who scored more than thirteen PPO points per game.
[15:33] Speaker 1: That was Will Fuller in twenty twenty. He crushed that year,
[15:37] Speaker 1: but it's still a frightening situation overall for Evans. When
[15:40] Speaker 1: we're looking through this lens. Like I said, I don't
[15:42] Speaker 1: have Evans this low. But it's pretty interesting to see
[15:45] Speaker 1: how market scores treating Evans this year. And it's a
[15:48] Speaker 1: combination of a lot of things as to why teammate competition,
[15:52] Speaker 1: his age, and some of his numbers just weren't fantastic
[15:55] Speaker 1: last year, like his yards per route run. Now, I
[15:57] Speaker 1: still think that the circumstances surrounding Mike Evans last year
[16:00] Speaker 1: in Baker Mayfield in particular, that led to that lower
[16:03] Speaker 1: yards per out run rate, because Evans still did a
[16:06] Speaker 1: really good job at commanding targets. He actually had his
[16:09] Speaker 1: third best targets perut run rate of his career last year.
[16:13] Speaker 1: But I can see why a model would objectively view
[16:15] Speaker 1: Evans as being in a bad spot this year. It's
[16:20] Speaker 1: kind of crazy that Arondez Gatson's coming off a rookie
[16:22] Speaker 1: season where he had forty nine catches, six hundred and
[16:24] Speaker 1: sixty four yards and three touchdowns, and yet he's almost
[16:28] Speaker 1: an afterthought in fantasy football. He brings fifteenth in NFL
[16:31] Speaker 1: history in receiving yards by a rookie tight end. Now,
[16:35] Speaker 1: the obvious reason is that they changed offensive coordinators in LA.
[16:38] Speaker 1: They signed David and Joku, they signed Charlie Kohlar, They
[16:41] Speaker 1: have wide receivers, they have other players in that offense
[16:44] Speaker 1: who can catch passes. But to be fair, even with that,
[16:47] Speaker 1: market score in general views Gadston as the tight end
[16:50] Speaker 1: fourteen overall. And look, we know there's variants with tight end,
[16:54] Speaker 1: but this is still very shocking to me. Gaston's top
[16:57] Speaker 1: ten comps led to a tight end four and market
[17:01] Speaker 1: score comp projection, there's a very low outcome with one
[17:04] Speaker 1: of Gatston's top three comps, which is Ladarius Green in
[17:07] Speaker 1: twenty fourteen. Ironically that was for the same Chargers team,
[17:10] Speaker 1: but back then they were in San Diego. But his
[17:13] Speaker 1: top comp is twenty eighteen George Kittle, Kittle's second year
[17:16] Speaker 1: in the league. Kittle went nine spots later than Gadston,
[17:20] Speaker 1: but their market scores were pretty close, and Kittle scored
[17:22] Speaker 1: over fifteen p Pier points per game that year. This
[17:25] Speaker 1: isn't very easy to find a tight end, but six
[17:27] Speaker 1: of Gatston's top ten comps scored over ten Ppier points
[17:31] Speaker 1: per game. I guarantee you that we're going to read
[17:34] Speaker 1: beat reports this summer about the other tight ends for
[17:37] Speaker 1: the Chargers the other pass catchers. But I don't think
[17:40] Speaker 1: that we should lose sight of Gadston. His rookie season
[17:43] Speaker 1: was impressive, and if we're throwing darts, why not throw
[17:47] Speaker 1: one his way In a managed league. Maybe I should
[17:49] Speaker 1: be a little bit higher on him than I currently am.
[17:54] Speaker 1: Despite Ceedee Lamb having the higher ADP, so his comps
[17:57] Speaker 1: are naturally going to include some players who are really good.
[18:00] Speaker 1: Despite that fact, George Pickens ranks ahead of Ced Lamb
[18:04] Speaker 1: in market score comp Projection. Now the difference is only
[18:07] Speaker 1: by like point seven PPR points per game, but still
[18:10] Speaker 1: there's a decent sized gap between the two players and ADP.
[18:13] Speaker 1: I do have Lamb ranked ahead of Pickens, don't get
[18:15] Speaker 1: me wrong, but I can kind of see where market
[18:18] Speaker 1: scores coming from here. In terms of their raw market scores,
[18:21] Speaker 1: we're looking at a seventy two for Lamb and a
[18:23] Speaker 1: sixty five for Pickens. It's not like that significant of
[18:27] Speaker 1: a difference. Lamb is the wide receiver six, Pickens is
[18:30] Speaker 1: the wide receiver thirteen, not that far from ADP. But
[18:34] Speaker 1: I think the small gap between these scores that's what's
[18:37] Speaker 1: more telling, and that's why we could see the type
[18:39] Speaker 1: of result that we're seeing with market score comp projections,
[18:43] Speaker 1: Lamb's being dragged down a little bit by year ten
[18:45] Speaker 1: Jordy Nelson, who scored just nine point two PPR points
[18:48] Speaker 1: per game. That's his third highest comp. That was a
[18:51] Speaker 1: year where Nelson was competing with both DeVante Adams and
[18:54] Speaker 1: Randall Cobb. At least Lamb only as Pickens to really
[18:57] Speaker 1: worry about. Lamb actually has an extremely close comp of
[19:01] Speaker 1: twenty twenty three Stephan Diggs, and then his second comp
[19:04] Speaker 1: is twenty twenty two Digs. Both of those were good
[19:07] Speaker 1: seasons sixteen point one and nineteen point six PPR points
[19:11] Speaker 1: per game. And then Lamb gets a year six Tyreek
[19:14] Speaker 1: Hill is his fourth comp, where he scored eighteen and
[19:16] Speaker 1: a half PPR points per game. There are some really,
[19:19] Speaker 1: really good ceiling outcomes for CD Lamb. It's just oddly
[19:23] Speaker 1: he has worse floor comps than George Pickens. Pickens' worst
[19:27] Speaker 1: floor comp is at des Bryant season, where does scored
[19:29] Speaker 1: twelve point one PPR points per game. Lamb had three
[19:33] Speaker 1: comps lower than that mark, And I think from a
[19:37] Speaker 1: value perspective in your draft, that's kind of how I'm
[19:40] Speaker 1: viewing these two players all because of opportunity costs. I
[19:43] Speaker 1: like Pickens more at his price. There's a scarier floor
[19:48] Speaker 1: given the cost for CD LAMB. But in that Dallas environment,
[19:52] Speaker 1: I'm not fading either player. You guys know, I'm na
[19:57] Speaker 1: Mecca Buca guy, and I'm higher on him versus some
[19:59] Speaker 1: of the non best ball platforms. ESPN has met wide
[20:02] Speaker 1: receiver nineteen. Yahoo hasn't met wide receiver twenty three. I
[20:06] Speaker 1: have met wide receiver sixteen market scorers. He's met wide
[20:10] Speaker 1: receiver fifteen. His market score player comp projection wide Receiver
[20:15] Speaker 1: five for real. Abukah's worst comp out of his top
[20:19] Speaker 1: ten is DJ Sharks year three, where he scored twelve
[20:22] Speaker 1: PPR points per game. He also gets AMRII. Cooper's twenty fifteen,
[20:26] Speaker 1: where he was at thirteen point nine. Every other player
[20:30] Speaker 1: in his comp list scored at least fifteen PPR points
[20:33] Speaker 1: per game. You get Juju Smith Schuster in twenty eighteen
[20:37] Speaker 1: eighteen point eight, DK metcalf in twenty twenty seventeen point eight,
[20:41] Speaker 1: AJ Brown in twenty twenty sixteen point two. He got
[20:44] Speaker 1: a Chris Godwin year three to one when Godwin dominated.
[20:47] Speaker 1: I mean, it's just one amazing comp after one amazing comp.
[20:52] Speaker 1: Abukah's twenty twenty five peripherals took a hit after a
[20:55] Speaker 1: really hot start, but there are reasons for it. His injury,
[20:59] Speaker 1: Baker's injury an awful catchuble targets rate. Now Mike Evans
[21:03] Speaker 1: is gone and he has a chance to be the alpha.
[21:06] Speaker 1: Market Score likes Abuka's chances of producing a big season.
[21:12] Speaker 1: This is the final part of today's show, and you
[21:14] Speaker 1: might be wondering, how is anything more interesting than a
[21:17] Speaker 1: mecha Buka at wide receiver five. Well, when Jackson Dart
[21:21] Speaker 1: comes out as the QB one, that's how market score
[21:26] Speaker 1: does not have Dart as the QB once you can breathe.
[21:29] Speaker 1: That's not what I'm saying here, though market Score does
[21:32] Speaker 1: love Jackson Dart. What I am saying here is that
[21:36] Speaker 1: his top ten comps are absolutely insane better than what
[21:40] Speaker 1: Josh Allen is seeing. Who's the QB two, i'llbe it barely.
[21:43] Speaker 1: One of the problems with Dart, though, is that he's
[21:45] Speaker 1: kind of a rarity. No player on his complice is
[21:48] Speaker 1: a similarity above eighty percent. So while as comps are
[21:51] Speaker 1: really good, they're also not unbelievably close matches. But I've
[21:55] Speaker 1: said this before. His top match has a seventy nine
[21:57] Speaker 1: point seven similarity. It's Lamar Jackson's twenty nineteen, his first
[22:01] Speaker 1: MVP season, where he literally broke fantasy football. You have that,
[22:05] Speaker 1: Josh Allen's year three, and Kyler Murray's year two, all
[22:09] Speaker 1: driving up his overall projection, which is a little over
[22:12] Speaker 1: twenty two points per game. There's really only one bad
[22:15] Speaker 1: outcome on this list, which is Nick foles third year
[22:17] Speaker 1: in the league, but that also came after a touchdown
[22:20] Speaker 1: rate of eight and a half percent during a time
[22:22] Speaker 1: when the fantasy football market didn't quite understand regression. Now
[22:26] Speaker 1: there are reasons to not be so bullish on Dart.
[22:29] Speaker 1: Change in coaching staff means ambiguity. Maybe we see less rushing,
[22:33] Speaker 1: and it's not like we saw a super clear picture
[22:36] Speaker 1: of the type of quarterback he's going to be long term.
[22:39] Speaker 1: Malik Neighbors is banged up two, though he did do
[22:42] Speaker 1: a lot of work last year without Neighbors. But look,
[22:45] Speaker 1: if you have an opportunity to get Dart as your QB,
[22:47] Speaker 1: won at a price where the opportunity costs is not significant.
[22:50] Speaker 1: Round eight, Round nine, Round ten, I do think that
[22:53] Speaker 1: we should be leaning into this upside, consider this, We've
[22:57] Speaker 1: had six rookie quarterbacks since twenty eleven, averagely the five
[23:00] Speaker 1: rushing points per game across at least eight games played.
[23:03] Speaker 1: Those six quarterbacks are Cam Newton, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels,
[23:08] Speaker 1: Robert Griffin, the third Lamar Jackson, and Jackson Dart. And
[23:12] Speaker 1: for what it's worth, Dart was at seven point three
[23:15] Speaker 1: points per game via rushing last year. This isn't some
[23:17] Speaker 1: random parameter to make Dart look extra special. There's at
[23:21] Speaker 1: least some chance that Dart is just really good for
[23:23] Speaker 1: fantasy football purposes. Like the same way that Jalen Hurts is.
[23:28] Speaker 1: Market Score believes in the ceiling and at the right price.
[23:31] Speaker 1: I think the rest of us should too. That's it
[23:34] Speaker 1: for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening.
[23:36] Speaker 1: If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast,
[23:39] Speaker 1: make sure you are by shooting for it pretty much
[23:41] Speaker 1: anywhere podcast can be found, and to follow me on
[23:43] Speaker 1: Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks
[23:47] Speaker 1: for listening. Everyone greatly appreciate it. I'll be back in
[23:50] Speaker 1: your ears on Wednesday on the YouTube channel for the
[23:52] Speaker 1: Late Round Fantasy Football Show and obviously this week you
[23:54] Speaker 1: have another becoming a best ball bro and at the
[23:56] Speaker 1: end of the week you get late round perspectives. I'll
[23:59] Speaker 1: talk to you that

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