# 1118: Risers and Fallers

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 25 Aug 2026, 23 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/d4f58226-142a-45db-a3c4-b4b0014dac94/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

JJ discusses a handful of players who have risen and fallen the most in his rankings since the start of the summer. Make sure to check out LateRound.com to order the 2026 Draft Guide. And while you're there, become a member! The new Members Hub is the place for rankings and tiers, data dumps, and more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacheris
[0:06] Speaker 1: j J Zachers. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen in
[0:14] Speaker 1: this episode eleven eighteen of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
[0:19] Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in. As a fantasy football analyst, you
[0:22] Speaker 1: can't be afraid to be wrong, and you can't be
[0:24] Speaker 1: afraid to change your opinion when new information is presented.
[0:28] Speaker 1: I think that goes for anything in life. We have
[0:30] Speaker 1: some belief, we get more information about that belief, and
[0:33] Speaker 1: then hopefully with that new information, our belief changes. I'm
[0:37] Speaker 1: sure you've been to a restaurant before you said it
[0:39] Speaker 1: was the best meal of your life, and then you
[0:41] Speaker 1: went back there and you didn't have quite as good
[0:43] Speaker 1: of a meal, or you went to another restaurant and
[0:45] Speaker 1: you realize, no, wait, that was the best meal of
[0:47] Speaker 1: my life. We should adjust our priors when new information
[0:51] Speaker 1: is presented. We can't be afraid of being wrong. In
[0:53] Speaker 1: this game, it's dynamic, it's filled with variants. We need
[0:56] Speaker 1: to accept the fact that our predictions won't always come
[0:59] Speaker 1: to fruition. When you accept that as a fantasy football manager,
[1:03] Speaker 1: as a fantasy analyst, whatever the case may be, I
[1:06] Speaker 1: guarantee you'll become a better player.
[1:09] Speaker 2: And that's sort of what this episode is about. Each
[1:11] Speaker 2: off season.
[1:12] Speaker 1: Back in May, I produce my first set of redraft rankings.
[1:16] Speaker 1: My work isn't close to being done. I still have
[1:19] Speaker 1: a ton of research to do. I still want to
[1:21] Speaker 1: watch these players play. I want to read certain beat
[1:23] Speaker 1: writer reports. Those rankings are almost vibes based, but by
[1:28] Speaker 1: the time mid to late August hits I'm feeling a
[1:30] Speaker 1: lot better about where players are ranked. So on today's episode,
[1:34] Speaker 1: I want to talk about players who have risen and
[1:36] Speaker 1: fallen in my rankings, and more importantly, why this is
[1:40] Speaker 1: me basically saying, hey, back in May and early June,
[1:44] Speaker 1: I was wrong about this guy. I actually view him
[1:46] Speaker 1: differently now, and that's gonna happen. Sometimes it's really frustrating
[1:51] Speaker 1: when it happens. Sometimes you make a trade, you make
[1:53] Speaker 1: a rookie draft selection, or something that you regret, but
[1:56] Speaker 1: you don't want to double down on a bad take
[1:58] Speaker 1: when new information arrides. That's what this episode's all about. Now,
[2:03] Speaker 1: before we get into things, I just wanted to send
[2:04] Speaker 1: another reminder to check out the Late Round Draft Guide.
[2:07] Speaker 1: There's over two hundred and seventy pages of content that
[2:09] Speaker 1: includes game theory, strategy wigs, the spot, breakouts and busts,
[2:13] Speaker 1: players of target, players will avoid, and more. You get
[2:16] Speaker 1: cheat sheets with the guide, and that guide is now
[2:18] Speaker 1: being updated twice a week.
[2:20] Speaker 2: You get a Wednesday.
[2:21] Speaker 1: Update where rankings are changed up and then a Friday
[2:24] Speaker 1: update where those rankings are updated again. But so are
[2:26] Speaker 1: the targets, avoids, and dart throws lists. You can learn
[2:30] Speaker 1: more about it over on lateround dot com. Let's start
[2:35] Speaker 1: today's show with probably the biggest riser for me this offseason.
[2:38] Speaker 1: That's Dayjon Stribbling. He's been crushing it in camp, He's
[2:41] Speaker 1: been crushing it in the preseason. He has good length,
[2:44] Speaker 1: he's a good athlete. He's certainly looked the part thus far. Now,
[2:48] Speaker 1: I most definitely had my concerns with Stribbling from a
[2:51] Speaker 1: prospecting standpoint. As you know, the way I prospect is
[2:54] Speaker 1: through looking at trends, finding what's worked in the past
[2:57] Speaker 1: has actually helped us tremendously and figuring out what's going
[3:00] Speaker 1: to happen in the future. Now, of course, prospecting isn't
[3:03] Speaker 1: easy to do. There's a lot of volatility to it.
[3:06] Speaker 1: Even NFL teams get stuff embarrassingly wrong every single year,
[3:11] Speaker 1: and they're not doing this for mom's basement, like I am.
[3:14] Speaker 1: I look back at the prospect profile for Stribbling and
[3:17] Speaker 1: there were some serious red flags. He had a thirty
[3:19] Speaker 1: first percentile breakout score, which is really low for an
[3:22] Speaker 1: early day two pick. His career yards per out run
[3:25] Speaker 1: rate in college ranked in the twentieth percentile. I mean,
[3:28] Speaker 1: I could go on and on here, but there was
[3:30] Speaker 1: nothing production wise that made Stribling really really stand out.
[3:35] Speaker 2: The one piece where I do wish.
[3:37] Speaker 1: I was a little bit more thoughtful about back in April,
[3:39] Speaker 1: back in May was his YAK profile. He was above
[3:43] Speaker 1: average in yards after the catch numbers and avoided tackles
[3:46] Speaker 1: per reception. And that's the kind of profile that Kyle
[3:50] Speaker 1: Shanahan his system looks for. We saw that in a
[3:53] Speaker 1: player like Brandon Ayuk and obviously Deebo Samuel, but Stribbling
[3:57] Speaker 1: undoubtedly needs to be an outlier analytically to really hit. Now.
[4:01] Speaker 2: I understand the draft capitol argument. Trust me, I've been
[4:04] Speaker 2: a draft capital bro for years now, pushing against people
[4:07] Speaker 2: who don't factor it into their process. So let's factor
[4:10] Speaker 2: it in here. Let's look at all top one hundred picks,
[4:13] Speaker 2: So this includes first round players two all top one
[4:17] Speaker 2: hundred picks who had a breakout score below forty, which
[4:20] Speaker 2: is about the fiftieth percentile. So a breakout score below
[4:23] Speaker 2: forty and a career yards pro out run rate below
[4:26] Speaker 2: two yards, and we'll look back to twenty eighteen when
[4:29] Speaker 2: this data is most reliable for the record. Stribling is
[4:33] Speaker 2: well below both those marks.
[4:35] Speaker 1: That leaves us with twenty players, and hilariously, five of
[4:39] Speaker 1: those players are from this year's draft class. You had
[4:42] Speaker 1: Jacobe Lane, Antonio Williams, Caleb Douglas, Stribling, and Xavian Thomas.
[4:47] Speaker 1: The remaining fifteen players are as follows, Dante Pettis, Jalen Hurd,
[4:52] Speaker 1: Miles Boykin, Terry McLaurin, Van Jefferson, Amari Rodgers, Vayalis Jones,
[4:58] Speaker 1: Michael Wilson, ad Mitchell, Xavier Lagette, Jalen Polk, Ricky Piersall,
[5:04] Speaker 1: Matthew Golden, Savian Williams.
[5:06] Speaker 2: And Jack Besh.
[5:07] Speaker 1: It's also very funny that Dante Pettis, Jalen Hurd, and
[5:10] Speaker 1: Ricky pearsall were all drafted by Kyle Shanahan's forty nine ers,
[5:15] Speaker 1: but look, it's a pretty brutal list, and I do
[5:18] Speaker 1: think it's relevant. Breakout score is just as predictive as
[5:21] Speaker 1: draft capital for top one hundred wide receivers in terms
[5:24] Speaker 1: of how well these wideouts are going to perform during
[5:27] Speaker 1: the first three years of their NFL careers in fantasy football.
[5:30] Speaker 2: And career yards.
[5:30] Speaker 1: Brough out run is not a nothing burger. This is
[5:34] Speaker 1: why Stribling was the wide receiver ten for me post draft.
[5:37] Speaker 1: Right ahead of him were wide receivers Denzel Boston, Jeremy Bernard,
[5:41] Speaker 1: Antonio Williams, and Chris Bell. Behind him were Zachariah Branch
[5:45] Speaker 1: and Jacoby Lane. Now, when those rankings were done, we
[5:48] Speaker 1: had no idea that Ricky Pearsall was going to be
[5:51] Speaker 1: out for the twenty twenty six season. Had I known that,
[5:53] Speaker 1: clearly he'd be ranked higher. But the wild part is
[5:57] Speaker 1: that my Stribbling ranking was either the same as the
[5:59] Speaker 1: market according to sites like DLF, and it was ahead
[6:02] Speaker 1: of the market according to data of real drafts that
[6:04] Speaker 1: were happening post draft and through June according to Dynasty
[6:08] Speaker 1: Data Lab. I only say that because it's wild, because
[6:11] Speaker 1: it's clear that the ZAP model did not love Strimbling.
[6:15] Speaker 1: The market was just way out on this guy, and
[6:18] Speaker 1: that's why this is going to be so interesting for me.
[6:21] Speaker 1: I'm fine with adjusting with all this new information while
[6:24] Speaker 1: obviously try to not get too carried away. But I
[6:27] Speaker 1: said it before and I'll say it again. This year's
[6:29] Speaker 1: wide receiver draft class had a lot of guys with
[6:32] Speaker 1: good draft capital, but the profiles were generally lacking across
[6:35] Speaker 1: the board. In my opinion, I liked the big four
[6:39] Speaker 1: Tyson Tate, Lemon Concepsione, and then there were serious red
[6:43] Speaker 1: flags with all the wide receivers after that. If I
[6:47] Speaker 1: were to rank Shribbling today, I would have no problem
[6:50] Speaker 1: leaning into this outlier case and putting them after Casey Conceptsione,
[6:54] Speaker 1: so ahead of Denzel Boston, ahead of Omar Cooper because
[6:58] Speaker 1: I didn't think their profiles were on deniable. The thing is, though,
[7:02] Speaker 1: in redraft, Stribling is still way too undervalued. On most platforms,
[7:06] Speaker 1: people care far too much about a player's floor when
[7:09] Speaker 1: they're in round eight, round nine of their draft. Go
[7:12] Speaker 1: for the ceiling, go for the outliers, and I think
[7:15] Speaker 1: Stribling belongs comfortably as a top fifty wide receiver at
[7:18] Speaker 1: this point I'm about ten to fifteen wide receiver spots
[7:21] Speaker 1: ahead of where he goes on these major platforms. Now
[7:24] Speaker 1: in Dynasty, the investment's different. I wouldn't be going out
[7:28] Speaker 1: there and getting stribbling for a twenty twenty seven first.
[7:31] Speaker 1: This is still a volatile situation. And keep in mind
[7:34] Speaker 1: a lot of these players in this forty nine ers
[7:36] Speaker 1: offense they're not playing in the preseason. But there's no
[7:40] Speaker 1: doubt I've gotten more information, I've internalized that information, and
[7:43] Speaker 1: I'm now moving forward with a new way of looking
[7:46] Speaker 1: at Dejon Stribbling because I think that's what a good
[7:49] Speaker 1: analyst should do. We should probably talk about more of
[7:54] Speaker 1: those rookie wide receivers. Since we're on the topic, I
[7:56] Speaker 1: have Jacobe Lane, Caleb Douglas, and Cyrus Allen as rise well.
[8:01] Speaker 1: I really want to reinforce this idea of just not
[8:03] Speaker 1: caring about a player's floor when you reach the late routes,
[8:06] Speaker 1: and in my opinion, that sort of flip should happen
[8:09] Speaker 1: far earlier in drafts, and it typically does for people.
[8:13] Speaker 1: I have plenty of concerns about all of these players.
[8:16] Speaker 1: Jacoby Lane was an early declare, so his collegiate numbers
[8:19] Speaker 1: need that context. He didn't play that additional year. With
[8:22] Speaker 1: that being said, his breakout score is more average than
[8:25] Speaker 1: the forty fourth percentile. He had some below average marks
[8:28] Speaker 1: across the board. One area where he did look good though,
[8:32] Speaker 1: is career first downs per route run. He was reliable
[8:35] Speaker 1: in college, and I think that catch radius is a
[8:38] Speaker 1: reason for that, and we're already seeing that.
[8:40] Speaker 2: On display in camp videos.
[8:42] Speaker 1: I do think that Lane is going to have a
[8:44] Speaker 1: hard time seeing tons and tons of volume in this
[8:46] Speaker 1: Raven's offense, depending on what happens to Rashad Bateman, because
[8:49] Speaker 1: there's some off the field stuff going on with him.
[8:52] Speaker 1: And look, Lane's one of the most acrobatic players in
[8:54] Speaker 1: this year's class. I'm not super surprised that he's looked
[8:57] Speaker 1: good in camp, but I do think I think he
[9:00] Speaker 1: brings a red zone element that this offense could definitely use.
[9:03] Speaker 1: It looks like he's definitely the one that you want
[9:06] Speaker 1: versus Elijah Surat. Now, Caleb Douglas legitimately was one of
[9:10] Speaker 1: the worst Day two prospects of the ZAP model I'd
[9:12] Speaker 1: ever seen. You could squint and kind of get there
[9:15] Speaker 1: with stribbling, but Douglas had a twenty fifth percentile breakout score,
[9:19] Speaker 1: a twenty eighth percentile career yards per out run, and
[9:22] Speaker 1: a twenty third percentile first downs per out run. Now,
[9:25] Speaker 1: with Douglas, I'm definitely worried about his long term viability,
[9:28] Speaker 1: but I do think that he can be a deep
[9:30] Speaker 1: threat for an offense in the NFL. He had an
[9:32] Speaker 1: eighty first percentile deep ball rate in college, and Malik
[9:35] Speaker 1: Willis he has the arm to get him the ball,
[9:38] Speaker 1: and this is the thing. Given the competition there, he
[9:41] Speaker 1: could just be force fed more looks underneath. It may
[9:44] Speaker 1: not just be used down the field. I'm still nervous
[9:47] Speaker 1: about Douglas in Dynasty. I think it's fine to react
[9:50] Speaker 1: to camp reports, though, and just see what we have
[9:52] Speaker 1: in Douglas from a redraft perspective. Now, I've said this
[9:55] Speaker 1: on the Late Round Show, but I think Cyrus Allen
[9:57] Speaker 1: is kind of an intriguing enough profile for a Day
[9:59] Speaker 1: three wide receiver. I didn't get to do a prospect
[10:02] Speaker 1: profile for him because he didn't get a Combine invite,
[10:05] Speaker 1: but I did rank him in my top forty eight
[10:07] Speaker 1: post draft. He had a forty second percentile breakout score,
[10:10] Speaker 1: which is not that bad for a Day three pick
[10:13] Speaker 1: and he had an eighty eighth percentile career deep ball
[10:16] Speaker 1: rate playing both inside and out. I think the Chiefs could,
[10:20] Speaker 1: in a hypothetical world, use Cyrus Allen all over the field,
[10:24] Speaker 1: and they need something more than what their wide receivers.
[10:27] Speaker 2: Have given them.
[10:28] Speaker 1: So I'm in on Allen as a late round dart throw.
[10:33] Speaker 1: Let's look at a father now, and that's Alec Pierce.
[10:36] Speaker 1: I was starting to get intrigued by Peers after the
[10:38] Speaker 1: Colts did nothing with their wide receiver room this offseason,
[10:41] Speaker 1: but then he just couldn't find the field. He has
[10:43] Speaker 1: this ankle injury that's just not going away. It sounds
[10:45] Speaker 1: like things are finally moving in the right direction, but
[10:48] Speaker 1: there's still a lot of uncertainty there, and I think
[10:50] Speaker 1: that's a big deal to me. It's a huge reason
[10:53] Speaker 1: they went out and they got Keenan Allen, who's been
[10:55] Speaker 1: someone that's taken a decent target share in his last
[10:58] Speaker 1: two stops. He was by far the number one wide
[11:01] Speaker 1: receiver in the Chargers last year and targets per route
[11:03] Speaker 1: run at twenty six percent. Lad McConkey was at nineteen percent,
[11:07] Speaker 1: Quentin Johnson's seventeen percent, and then in Chicago the year before.
[11:11] Speaker 1: His target's per rout run rate was twenty five percent,
[11:13] Speaker 1: DJ Moore twenty three percent, Roma Dunes a eighteen percent.
[11:17] Speaker 1: This isn't to say that Allen's going to be the
[11:18] Speaker 1: best fantasy option for the Colts. My assumption he's going
[11:21] Speaker 1: to play fewer snaps than both Pierce and Josh Downs.
[11:25] Speaker 1: But Pierce was already fighting somewhat of an uphill battle
[11:28] Speaker 1: when it comes to target share. We just haven't seen
[11:31] Speaker 1: him be a high end volume earner dating back to college.
[11:35] Speaker 1: His highest target share in college was twenty two percent.
[11:38] Speaker 1: That's a twenty nine percent tile number among the guys
[11:41] Speaker 1: in the Zapmodel database. His highest in the NFL is
[11:44] Speaker 1: just eighteen percent. Now, I do think that Pierce has
[11:47] Speaker 1: gotten a lot better as a player since he's been
[11:50] Speaker 1: in the NFL. I was actually drafting him earlier this offseason,
[11:54] Speaker 1: but his injury combined with this signing, I'm scared off
[11:57] Speaker 1: right now. If I'm just being totally honest, a player
[12:02] Speaker 1: kind of going in the opposite direction of peers from
[12:04] Speaker 1: an injury perspective. As Milik neighbors, not much really has
[12:08] Speaker 1: to be said here. A healthy Molik Neighbors is a
[12:10] Speaker 1: player who has a shot to be one of the
[12:12] Speaker 1: best wide.
[12:12] Speaker 2: Receivers in fantasy football.
[12:14] Speaker 1: Since twenty sixteen, his rookie season ranked first and targets
[12:17] Speaker 1: per ute run rate, tenth and yards perrout run rate,
[12:20] Speaker 1: and tenth and fantasy points per route run. That's among
[12:23] Speaker 1: eighty nine wide receivers with three hundred and more routes run.
[12:26] Speaker 1: There's a ton of upside even coming off of this injury,
[12:30] Speaker 1: and I was obviously baking that into my early summer rankings.
[12:33] Speaker 2: The injury had him pushed down.
[12:35] Speaker 1: Now that it's looking better for him in the early
[12:37] Speaker 1: parts of the season, he's risen, though I'm still not
[12:40] Speaker 1: at the point where I'm taking him by where that
[12:42] Speaker 1: big round two group of running backs goes. I'd still
[12:45] Speaker 1: rather go in that direction. I've got a pair of
[12:49] Speaker 1: later round tight ends who are follers. The first one
[12:53] Speaker 1: is are Rondez Gatson. I've mentioned before that market Score
[12:56] Speaker 1: doesn't mind Gatson at all. Market Score generally likes him
[12:59] Speaker 1: because it's working off of previous season data and as
[13:02] Speaker 1: a rookie, Gatson was kind of incredible. We're talking like
[13:05] Speaker 1: a top fifteen rookie season production wise from a tight end. Ever,
[13:10] Speaker 1: the issue with Gadson is that we've got a new
[13:12] Speaker 1: offensive coordinator in la and anytime there's a coaching change,
[13:15] Speaker 1: new traits are going to be rewarded. Gatson's more of
[13:18] Speaker 1: that tweener tight end and we're already seeing that not
[13:21] Speaker 1: play into his benefit. David and Joko and Charlie Kohlar
[13:25] Speaker 1: are playing ahead of him in the preseason. Like flat out,
[13:27] Speaker 1: it just seems like they want Gason to improve as
[13:29] Speaker 1: a blocker. Tight End's a tough position to play because
[13:33] Speaker 1: the position does so much. They're not just out there
[13:35] Speaker 1: running routes and catching the ball, and that means there's
[13:38] Speaker 1: more developmental time needed for Ronde Gadson. Meanwhile, Eli Stowers,
[13:43] Speaker 1: it's never a good sign when there's negative reporting with
[13:46] Speaker 1: a player.
[13:47] Speaker 2: Out of camp.
[13:48] Speaker 1: Stowers had a pretty unique journey in college. He played
[13:51] Speaker 1: quarterback and then he eventually settled in at tight end
[13:53] Speaker 1: for Vandy, and his production profile is actually strong. We're
[13:56] Speaker 1: talking ninetieth percentile breakout score, a career yards route run
[14:00] Speaker 1: rate in the ninety fourth percentile. He's an older prospect,
[14:04] Speaker 1: but as a crazy athlete, there was a lot to
[14:06] Speaker 1: like out of his profile. Now the zat Model did
[14:09] Speaker 1: like Kenyan Sadik quite a bit more like a full
[14:12] Speaker 1: tier ahead, but Stowers appeared to be a pretty decent prospect.
[14:16] Speaker 1: It just seems like this might be a twenty twenty
[14:18] Speaker 1: seventh thing versus the twenty twenty six to one. It's
[14:21] Speaker 1: probably not unlike what we're seeing with gatst In to
[14:23] Speaker 1: a degree that's good for Dallas Goddard. But right now
[14:26] Speaker 1: in your season long drafts, you don't need to worry
[14:28] Speaker 1: about Eli Stowers. An obvious riser for me is Jonathan Brooks,
[14:34] Speaker 1: though I was pretty high on him back in May
[14:35] Speaker 1: and June. Anyway, it's just this Cuba Hubbard injury has
[14:38] Speaker 1: allowed him to elevate a little bit more, as has
[14:41] Speaker 1: the fact that Brooks himself hasn't gotten hurt. I had
[14:45] Speaker 1: an anti Cuba stands last year because I don't like
[14:48] Speaker 1: spending up for running backs who are just projected to
[14:49] Speaker 1: see a lot of volume when I don't necessarily think
[14:51] Speaker 1: they're special talents, or when they haven't proved that for
[14:54] Speaker 1: multiple seasons. Hubbard's never really been an a fishing pass
[14:58] Speaker 1: catcher either, so it made that fade decision even easier.
[15:02] Speaker 1: Now I'm not really in the same boat this year
[15:03] Speaker 1: with Hubbard because he's cheaper than where he was last year.
[15:07] Speaker 1: And to be honest with you guys, in Best Ball specifically,
[15:10] Speaker 1: because this is not happening in season long, but in
[15:13] Speaker 1: Best Ball specifically, the gap between Brooks and Chewba Hubbard
[15:16] Speaker 1: is kind of wild. It's been nice to get some
[15:19] Speaker 1: Hubbard exposure, but I do like Brooks more than Hubbard.
[15:22] Speaker 1: He's risen up my rankings. I think he's the superior
[15:26] Speaker 1: pass catcher and there's a lot of upside as a runner.
[15:29] Speaker 2: We can't forget that he was a good prospect.
[15:31] Speaker 1: According to the ZAP model, he was just out of
[15:33] Speaker 1: the Elite producer category with a score of seventy point five.
[15:36] Speaker 1: He had a best season pro rated reception share in
[15:38] Speaker 1: the fifty fourth percentile, which is good enough, but his
[15:41] Speaker 1: adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt was in the
[15:44] Speaker 1: eighty third percentile, so both receiving metrics were pretty good. Meanwhile,
[15:49] Speaker 1: his adjusted total yards per team play was in the
[15:52] Speaker 1: eighty ninth and pff they pegged him as a ninety
[15:56] Speaker 1: fourth percentile player and avoided tackles per attempt. I mean
[15:59] Speaker 1: he was pretty legit across the board. There's obvious risk here,
[16:03] Speaker 1: though there's just plenty of upside and that's exactly what
[16:07] Speaker 1: you want out of your RB three or your RB
[16:09] Speaker 1: four in your drafts. Trayvon Henderson has fallen for me
[16:15] Speaker 1: for all the reasons I've been saying on the show
[16:16] Speaker 1: over the last month. There just isn't enough steam coming
[16:19] Speaker 1: out of that camp to make me believe this backfiel
[16:21] Speaker 1: is going to be tremendously different year over year. And look,
[16:25] Speaker 1: I like Henderson a lot. This is the archetype of
[16:28] Speaker 1: back that I usually want to invest in. But this
[16:30] Speaker 1: type of player doesn't always have a good running back
[16:33] Speaker 1: next to him in the backfield, and that's the problem
[16:36] Speaker 1: among qualified backs. Ramandre Stevenson was first and rushing yards
[16:40] Speaker 1: over expected per rush last year. He was also first
[16:44] Speaker 1: and catch right over expected. Now that was weighed by
[16:47] Speaker 1: the fact that he was really good down the stretch
[16:49] Speaker 1: last year. He started if year, but he finished strong.
[16:52] Speaker 1: He dominated snaps and he dominated touches in the playoffs,
[16:56] Speaker 1: and he's the guy who they trust in pass Pro.
[16:58] Speaker 2: Right now, I don't think that's nothing new.
[17:01] Speaker 1: England ran the fewest percentage of their offensive plays last
[17:04] Speaker 1: year while trailing their schedule this year should be tougher.
[17:07] Speaker 1: Even if they're a good team, they're probably gonna trail
[17:10] Speaker 1: in more games. Stevenson played over twice as many snaps
[17:14] Speaker 1: as Henderson last year in that environment when they were
[17:16] Speaker 1: both healthy. I think there's maybe some chance that Henderson
[17:19] Speaker 1: starts to dig into that workload as the season goes on,
[17:23] Speaker 1: but I.
[17:23] Speaker 2: Don't even know if that's a lock.
[17:25] Speaker 1: So the more I've thought about this situation, the more
[17:27] Speaker 1: I've read about this situation, I'm way more in on
[17:30] Speaker 1: Remandre Stevenson this year than Trayvon Henderson. And you want
[17:34] Speaker 1: to talk about changing your views with more information, I
[17:37] Speaker 1: was the opposite of this last year. I'm just trying
[17:40] Speaker 1: to be logical and give the best advice that I
[17:42] Speaker 1: can give. Sometimes that means admitting that old advice wasn't
[17:46] Speaker 1: the best. I'm in on Parker Washington, and yes, he
[17:51] Speaker 1: has risen in my rankings this summer for two reasons.
[17:54] Speaker 1: Number One, there's a lot of chatter out of Jacksonville
[17:57] Speaker 1: that Washington won't be rotated quite as much as the
[18:00] Speaker 1: other wide receivers there. I mean, I don't blame them
[18:03] Speaker 1: once they started using him more post by post Travis
[18:06] Speaker 1: Hunter injury, Washington was far and away the team's most
[18:09] Speaker 1: effective wide receiver. We're talking over two and a half
[18:11] Speaker 1: yards per rout run, a twenty four percent targets per
[18:14] Speaker 1: out run rate, zero point five to three PPR points
[18:17] Speaker 1: per route run, all easily team highs, and that coincided
[18:21] Speaker 1: with the Jacks essentially being a top three offense in
[18:23] Speaker 1: football through the end of the year. We've seen slot
[18:27] Speaker 1: players thrive in Liam Cohen's offense, but Washington can do
[18:31] Speaker 1: more than that. He had a three point one seven
[18:33] Speaker 1: yards per rouh run rate outside the slot down the
[18:36] Speaker 1: stretch last year.
[18:37] Speaker 2: That's bonkers.
[18:38] Speaker 1: Now that was on just one hundred and fifteen routes
[18:40] Speaker 1: or a sample size is clearly limited. A lot of
[18:43] Speaker 1: this has some sample size problem, but Washington is oozing
[18:47] Speaker 1: with upside, So I'm in on him, and I think
[18:49] Speaker 1: he's still undervalued on most of the fantasy platforms. I
[18:54] Speaker 1: started the offseason leaning towards Rashad White pretty heavily in
[18:57] Speaker 1: that Commander's backfield, but it seems clear that the Commanders
[19:00] Speaker 1: are trying to make ja Corey Krosky meritith thing.
[19:03] Speaker 2: They want to use him more as a.
[19:04] Speaker 1: Pass catcher or at least give him more of those opportunities.
[19:07] Speaker 1: That's probably the biggest story of that backfield coming out
[19:10] Speaker 1: of camp. Now, to be totally clear, I'm still skeptical
[19:14] Speaker 1: that we're going to see that come to fruition.
[19:16] Speaker 2: Bill was an older.
[19:17] Speaker 1: Prospect and despite that, he still only hit an eight
[19:20] Speaker 1: percent max season reception share in college. His age and
[19:23] Speaker 1: program adjusted receiving yards per team pass atten figure in
[19:26] Speaker 1: the ZAP model placed him in the twenty first percentile.
[19:29] Speaker 1: And obviously, last year he only had a twenty five
[19:32] Speaker 1: percent route share that ranked outside the top sixty at
[19:35] Speaker 1: the position. Obviously, Rashad White's game is the pass catching stuff.
[19:39] Speaker 1: Despite not being the guy in his backfield, last year,
[19:42] Speaker 1: he was top twenty in route share at running back. Now,
[19:45] Speaker 1: one thing I'm really excited about for Bill is the
[19:47] Speaker 1: fact that we're probably going to see the Commanders under
[19:49] Speaker 1: center a lot more this year. No team has run
[19:52] Speaker 1: more plays out of shotgun at a higher rate over
[19:54] Speaker 1: the last two years than the Washington Commanders. And look,
[19:57] Speaker 1: this is a limited sample. We're talking about fifty three rushes,
[20:00] Speaker 1: But on fifty three rushes when his quarterback was under
[20:03] Speaker 1: center last year, Bill ranked first in the NFL in
[20:05] Speaker 1: yards after contact per attempt, he was top ten and
[20:09] Speaker 1: first downs per rush. I've gotten to the point where
[20:12] Speaker 1: I'm kind of just in on both of these guys,
[20:14] Speaker 1: even after the Tunsel injury. I can see a path
[20:17] Speaker 1: for both of these guys being fantasy relevant, and it
[20:20] Speaker 1: is an ambiguous backfield one that we probably want to target.
[20:24] Speaker 1: So don't sleep on either Bill Krosky, Merit or Rashad White.
[20:29] Speaker 1: Sticking with the Commander's theme, I want to close today's
[20:31] Speaker 1: show by talking about Stefan Diggs. I genuinely think that
[20:35] Speaker 1: Stefan Diggs is one of the most undervalued players in
[20:37] Speaker 1: all of fantasy football right now. To me, there's not
[20:41] Speaker 1: really any signs that he's just complete dust. Maybe he's
[20:44] Speaker 1: not peaked Stefan Diggs, but I don't see a player
[20:47] Speaker 1: who's dust. Digs averaged twelve point three PPR points per
[20:51] Speaker 1: game last year. He was basically fine at cost. He
[20:54] Speaker 1: wasn't a league winner, but he didn't sink you. With
[20:57] Speaker 1: that being said, among wide receivers with one hundred or more,
[21:00] Speaker 1: Diggs was top ten in yards per route run. He
[21:03] Speaker 1: saw a ninetieth percentile targets per route run mark. The
[21:07] Speaker 1: problem is that he just didn't get a good route share.
[21:09] Speaker 1: He had a seventy one percent route share, which aligned
[21:12] Speaker 1: close to Troy Franklin and Sterling Shepard. He can play
[21:15] Speaker 1: inside out. He was actually good outside last year. He
[21:19] Speaker 1: was ninth in targets per out run outside the slot
[21:22] Speaker 1: he was eighth and yards per out run. This isn't
[21:25] Speaker 1: just a he's seeing great slot matchups thing. He also
[21:29] Speaker 1: pairs super well with Terry McLaurin, who himself, despite his age,
[21:32] Speaker 1: is coming off his best per route run season of
[21:35] Speaker 1: his career. So Diggs has risen a ton since May
[21:38] Speaker 1: because we now know that he's a commander and I
[21:41] Speaker 1: love the fit. I think there's a ton of potential
[21:43] Speaker 1: for him in this offense and in fantasy football.
[21:47] Speaker 2: Now.
[21:47] Speaker 1: There were a couple of other situations I almost talked
[21:50] Speaker 1: through on this show, like seeing Terrence Ferguson, Pat Bryant,
[21:53] Speaker 1: and Dontavian.
[21:54] Speaker 2: Wicks as risers.
[21:55] Speaker 1: But hopefully this gives you guys an idea of where
[21:57] Speaker 1: my head was at and where it's at right now.
[22:00] Speaker 1: As always, you can get my thoughts not just on
[22:03] Speaker 1: this podcast, but through the Draft guide and through the
[22:05] Speaker 1: website as well, I'm super active on Discord all the
[22:08] Speaker 1: time with subscribers.
[22:10] Speaker 2: That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of
[22:11] Speaker 2: you for listening.
[22:12] Speaker 1: If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast,
[22:15] Speaker 1: make sure you are bestwisting for it pretty much anywhere
[22:17] Speaker 1: podcasts can be found, and follow me on Twitter and
[22:20] Speaker 1: on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening, everyone,
[22:24] Speaker 1: becoming a best ball bro That'll be out on Wednesday morning.
[22:27] Speaker 1: We'll be live with the Late Round Show on our
[22:29] Speaker 1: YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash at LATEROUNDFF. That'll be
[22:33] Speaker 1: at noon on Wednesday, and then it will drop in
[22:35] Speaker 1: this feed.
[22:36] Speaker 2: On Thursday and then later in the week.
[22:38] Speaker 1: We got a mailbag episode, lots of content and even
[22:41] Speaker 1: more content is coming soon once the season starts. Thanks
[22:45] Speaker 1: for listening, though, guys, I'll catch you tomorrow

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