# Late-Round Perspectives: Brandon Gdula

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 22 May 2026, 1 h 01 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/f37937a6-0bd9-4bb7-ba8b-b45100b7d6ae/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

Late-Round Fantasy Football's Brandon Gdula joins Perspectives to talk about his approach to fantasy football, the new tight end ZAP Model, offensive coordinators, best ball values, and more. Make sure to check out LateRound.com to order the updated 2026 Late-Round Prospect Guide. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: Brandon Godola is a senior analyst for Late Round Fantasy
[0:03] Speaker 1: Football who previously worked at Number Fire and Fandel. He's
[0:06] Speaker 1: a multi time FSWA Award winner. He's a data nerd,
[0:10] Speaker 1: a golf analyst, a cat lover, a hooper, and a
[0:13] Speaker 1: big wrestling fan. These are his Late Round perspectives.
[0:28] Speaker 2: I had to dust off all the equipment, the microphone,
[0:33] Speaker 2: the camera.
[0:34] Speaker 3: I looked up.
[0:35] Speaker 2: I guess it's been well over six months since I
[0:37] Speaker 2: did a podcast.
[0:38] Speaker 4: So how long be since you did a show?
[0:41] Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm like, where's all my stuff? Is it even
[0:44] Speaker 2: connected to my new computer?
[0:46] Speaker 3: But yeah, here we Are?
[0:48] Speaker 4: Was the last one that you did with with Jim?
[0:50] Speaker 3: Of course? Yeah?
[0:51] Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, we love Jim.
[0:55] Speaker 3: Here love Jim Jim Thomas.
[0:57] Speaker 5: But Jim also I got a lot of questions about
[1:00] Speaker 5: him when I did the quarterback episode this year.
[1:03] Speaker 4: Prospect the episode and people were like, are you bringing
[1:05] Speaker 4: Jim on? And you're bringing Jim on.
[1:07] Speaker 5: But his job now does not allow him to do
[1:10] Speaker 5: shows and such, so we had Alfredo step in and
[1:13] Speaker 5: Alfredo's obviously awesome and it was a great show. And
[1:16] Speaker 5: now Alfredo's doing work quarterback work with reception perception, so
[1:20] Speaker 5: Alfredo will probably be the replacement of Jim, but I
[1:24] Speaker 5: don't know from from Jim's perspective.
[1:26] Speaker 4: He also this is.
[1:27] Speaker 5: Jim SNAs for the record, yes, but from Jim's perspective,
[1:30] Speaker 5: he went out on top because two years ago he
[1:33] Speaker 5: called Jade Daniels. Last year he called Jackson Dart and
[1:37] Speaker 5: you know Darts the top quarterback from that class now
[1:40] Speaker 5: in Dynasty.
[1:41] Speaker 4: So way to go, Jim, good job. But this is
[1:44] Speaker 4: about you. This is about you.
[1:46] Speaker 3: But you can make about Jim. That's fine.
[1:48] Speaker 4: No, we're not going it's about Jim.
[1:50] Speaker 5: You've been with you've been with Late Round Fantasy Football
[1:52] Speaker 5: for like five months now, over almost six months, and
[1:58] Speaker 5: you haven't done a show in the feed, and so
[2:01] Speaker 5: you know, we thought might as well do this because
[2:05] Speaker 5: you've been doing a lot of work on you know,
[2:07] Speaker 5: the for the folks who read the Prospect Guide. You know,
[2:11] Speaker 5: your name was thrown out there a lot because you
[2:13] Speaker 5: did the all the tight end work.
[2:15] Speaker 4: We've been doing a lot for.
[2:17] Speaker 5: Prepping and Slash getting started with the Draft Guide stuff,
[2:20] Speaker 5: new metrics coming out. There's just a bunch of stuff
[2:22] Speaker 5: that you've been doing. And so I thought this is
[2:25] Speaker 5: a really good time to sort of like throw you
[2:27] Speaker 5: out there, introduce you to the late round fantasy football
[2:32] Speaker 5: world in a more intimate way as opposed to the newsletter.
[2:35] Speaker 5: I should have mentioned the newsletters. So that's really what
[2:37] Speaker 5: you've been doing a ton of every week. But introduce
[2:40] Speaker 5: you to the late round world. But first in doing that,
[2:44] Speaker 5: talk about yourself a little bit, something that you.
[2:46] Speaker 4: Don't love doing.
[2:46] Speaker 5: I understand, I know, I know you well, but talk
[2:50] Speaker 5: about like what got you into this, how you started
[2:54] Speaker 5: in the space, all that, all that good stuff.
[2:57] Speaker 2: Yeah, this is going to be an interesting one. But
[3:00] Speaker 2: I can talk. I can go back farther a bit.
[3:03] Speaker 2: I mean, I was kind of always daydreaming about fantasy
[3:07] Speaker 2: football and middle school, high school. I was on the
[3:10] Speaker 2: message boards, you know, probably at that rate, talking some smack,
[3:15] Speaker 2: I'm sure, but I wouldn't do that now.
[3:17] Speaker 3: But looking at.
[3:19] Speaker 2: Things like schedule luck, like what if I played this
[3:22] Speaker 2: other person's schedule. I was looking into that stuff, and
[3:24] Speaker 2: because I was, you know, I felt like I got unlucky,
[3:27] Speaker 2: which you know always happens to everybody. But sure, all
[3:30] Speaker 2: that kind of stuff. You know, we're talking I guess
[3:35] Speaker 2: twenty years ago now at this point. But my brother
[3:37] Speaker 2: My older brother was kind of on the forefront. I
[3:41] Speaker 2: guess listening to some some podcasts and it's now defunct podcast.
[3:46] Speaker 2: I think it was called The Fantasy Fumble. They're like, hey,
[3:48] Speaker 2: we're launching a website. If you want to write content.
[3:51] Speaker 2: I this, yeah, this is yeah, it goes right into
[3:55] Speaker 2: the next step.
[3:56] Speaker 3: Yeah.
[3:56] Speaker 4: Yeah, So this is crazy.
[3:58] Speaker 2: So my brother's like, you should do this like you
[3:59] Speaker 2: do this time, and I'm like all right, so I
[4:01] Speaker 2: did it. It was like some sort of base level
[4:04] Speaker 2: here's why you should not take a tight end or
[4:07] Speaker 2: a quarterback early, and you should get your flex like
[4:09] Speaker 2: figure it out, take a running back that kind of
[4:11] Speaker 2: like early. Yeah, you know, before we knew what we
[4:15] Speaker 2: know now about a lot of things and before the
[4:16] Speaker 2: game changed. But you know, it got published and whatever,
[4:19] Speaker 2: so you know, then probably like a year or two
[4:21] Speaker 2: go by, if I had to guess, the site has
[4:24] Speaker 2: long been erased from from the internet. So I'm scrolling
[4:29] Speaker 2: through Twitter before night class one night, I see a
[4:33] Speaker 2: tweet from you looking for writers for Number Fire, and
[4:36] Speaker 2: I'm like, well, I mean yeah, I read Number Fire,
[4:39] Speaker 2: so like of course, and I remember I was trying
[4:42] Speaker 2: to like dig up these old links my professor walks in.
[4:47] Speaker 2: I'm like, no, I'm leaving. I ain't missing this chance.
[4:49] Speaker 2: I don't know how quickly this.
[4:51] Speaker 3: Is going to go.
[4:51] Speaker 2: So I go in the stairwell, hide down the stairwell,
[4:54] Speaker 2: typing out on like this.
[4:56] Speaker 3: I mean old, like old old, you know now art phone.
[5:00] Speaker 2: I'm sure everything was loud and real slow, but I
[5:02] Speaker 2: got an email off to you. You liked enough of
[5:05] Speaker 2: what you saw, and uh then we chatted and you know,
[5:08] Speaker 2: I came on, wrote articles for Number five, started editing,
[5:11] Speaker 2: and then since then, you know, Number five got bought
[5:15] Speaker 2: by FanDuel and we worked together there till you left
[5:19] Speaker 2: and started late round Fantasy Football. And let's just say
[5:22] Speaker 2: I'm here now.
[5:23] Speaker 4: So yeah, yeah, I didn't know. So so the Fantasy FuMB?
[5:27] Speaker 4: Did you hear?
[5:28] Speaker 5: You know that Fantasy The Fantasy Fumble was the first
[5:30] Speaker 5: ever podcast that I did, really, no joke.
[5:34] Speaker 4: That's why I was freaking out when you said.
[5:36] Speaker 2: It with I think it was Scott or George George George, Yeah, yeah,
[5:44] Speaker 2: it was.
[5:44] Speaker 4: It was the first. It was the first show I
[5:46] Speaker 4: ever did.
[5:46] Speaker 5: I've told this story I think before, but like I
[5:49] Speaker 5: was such a nervous wreck, you know, I'm like twenty
[5:52] Speaker 5: three years old or something like that, such a nervous wreck.
[5:55] Speaker 5: I did it in I had like a couple of
[5:57] Speaker 5: beers before doing it, which is just very not my
[6:00] Speaker 5: style or MO and I went and I had like
[6:03] Speaker 5: I was living in Cincinnati. I had a closet that
[6:06] Speaker 5: was really big that it had good like sound, you know,
[6:09] Speaker 5: from a sound an acoustic perspective, and I recorded the
[6:12] Speaker 5: show from the closet of that of that room. And
[6:15] Speaker 5: I remember at that time, I had no idea how to,
[6:20] Speaker 5: like cause like when you first, especially back then, because
[6:23] Speaker 5: this was like twenty eleven twenty twelve timeframe, and back
[6:27] Speaker 5: then maybe twenty twelve. Back then, like this industry was
[6:31] Speaker 5: not nearly what it is now, where you've seen so
[6:35] Speaker 5: many like hundreds and hundreds of people come up and
[6:37] Speaker 5: then leave the industry, and you know, you kind of know,
[6:40] Speaker 5: even if you're newer in the industry that you're going
[6:43] Speaker 5: to be taking criticism all the time, like it's just
[6:45] Speaker 5: what it is with the fantasy football space. And I
[6:48] Speaker 5: remember I had no idea that it was going to
[6:50] Speaker 5: be like that because we didn't really know back then
[6:53] Speaker 5: what what it was like to be an analyst or
[6:56] Speaker 5: a thought leader or an influencer on the internet. We
[6:58] Speaker 5: I mean, it sounds crazy because it was only like
[7:00] Speaker 5: fourteen years ago, fifteen years.
[7:02] Speaker 4: Ago, but that's seriously how it was back then.
[7:05] Speaker 5: And I remember getting so tilted after doing that show
[7:10] Speaker 5: because I got off air and they were talking about
[7:13] Speaker 5: me afterwards, like on the show, and they were saying
[7:16] Speaker 5: things that were not even really criticism. It was me
[7:19] Speaker 5: taking it a certain way, and then I had to
[7:21] Speaker 5: go to Twitter and defend myself and defend my honor
[7:24] Speaker 5: and be very very overly aggressive about it.
[7:27] Speaker 4: And it's just funny.
[7:28] Speaker 5: That that all that all got brought back to me
[7:32] Speaker 5: with you bringing up the Fantasy Fumble, because they they
[7:35] Speaker 5: seriously were like some of the first people that I
[7:38] Speaker 5: had interacted with in the fantasy space. And now I'm
[7:40] Speaker 5: thinking about it. What if they would have just kept
[7:42] Speaker 5: going with that, they could be doing this thing full time.
[7:45] Speaker 3: Probably there are a lot of people who, like you said,
[7:48] Speaker 3: a lot of people.
[7:49] Speaker 2: Who have who were around and aren't really But there
[7:53] Speaker 2: are a lot of people who've just are kind of
[7:55] Speaker 2: around because they've been around and they had an audience,
[7:57] Speaker 2: and you know, it's not like that's not to comment on.
[8:00] Speaker 2: Like they never evolved or anything, but like getting in early,
[8:03] Speaker 2: like a lot of people did. I kind of think
[8:04] Speaker 2: about that too for that podcast and just kind of like, man,
[8:08] Speaker 2: I remember I don't even remember all of the things
[8:11] Speaker 2: that I read, all the people who were doing fantasy
[8:13] Speaker 2: like analysis and like when targets were kind of a
[8:17] Speaker 2: thing that people were like had some access didn't like
[8:21] Speaker 2: data on it. Yeah, and like I just think about
[8:23] Speaker 2: if those people. I think about this all the time
[8:26] Speaker 2: too for me, Like man if I just like learned
[8:28] Speaker 2: about some of this stuff early on, you know, because
[8:32] Speaker 2: my path is basically I'm an English major and now
[8:34] Speaker 2: I'm a senior analyst dealing with spreadsheets all day. But yeah,
[8:38] Speaker 2: I just think about like what what would be different
[8:40] Speaker 2: if I was had access to like targets or just
[8:43] Speaker 2: you know, were kind of in this a different way
[8:47] Speaker 2: early on. But I'm glad I came through it, uh
[8:49] Speaker 2: with from the content perspective, that's that's my strong suit.
[8:52] Speaker 2: But I think my background, like overall of just being
[8:56] Speaker 2: able to dig in and kind of feel it's that
[8:58] Speaker 2: I'd say, like an English lit you know degree, A
[9:01] Speaker 2: lot of people think it's worthless, but if you apply yourself,
[9:04] Speaker 2: like you're tasked with reading things, thinking about like you know,
[9:08] Speaker 2: you got to filter the information, take it different ways,
[9:11] Speaker 2: like create you know, I don't want to say create
[9:14] Speaker 2: a narrative, but actually find the narrative. One of the
[9:16] Speaker 2: things that I love to do. One of one of
[9:19] Speaker 2: the few things that I take away from school all
[9:23] Speaker 2: my many years of school, one of the most important
[9:26] Speaker 2: things was in an English class at Penn State at
[9:30] Speaker 2: a TA he's like, hey, you know, don't write a
[9:32] Speaker 2: thesis statement, like you're going to back yourself into a corner.
[9:36] Speaker 2: As you do more research, you might realize that that's wrong.
[9:40] Speaker 2: And yet you kind of finish your paper and you're like, well,
[9:42] Speaker 2: I'm just going to leave it like this. If you
[9:44] Speaker 2: ask questions, you get to explore things. Maybe you end
[9:48] Speaker 2: up with a strong takeaway, maybe you don't. But I'd
[9:51] Speaker 2: say that kind of is like my A lot of
[9:52] Speaker 2: my day to day now doing stuff with late round
[9:56] Speaker 2: is like, let's ask some questions, let's dig in and
[9:58] Speaker 2: like let's see what's there and if there's not, don't
[10:00] Speaker 2: force anything. But yeah, it's it's been a that's been
[10:04] Speaker 2: my journey. But I do think about those people who
[10:06] Speaker 2: kind of started early and who aren't really around anymore.
[10:10] Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean there's definitely, like, you know, I do
[10:13] Speaker 4: not envy folks who are trying to make it in
[10:15] Speaker 4: the space right now. It was easier when we were
[10:18] Speaker 4: like because there's just what it wasn't as competitive now.
[10:20] Speaker 4: I also think from that perspective, you know, you bring
[10:23] Speaker 4: up like some of your work and you having this
[10:26] Speaker 4: feeling that what you're doing now is so much more
[10:30] Speaker 4: in depth of what it was back then, which one
[10:32] Speaker 4: hundred percent of course it is. But I also think
[10:35] Speaker 4: that that's important to be able to evolve and get
[10:38] Speaker 4: better and not just stick with the same process and
[10:41] Speaker 4: you know, do the same thing over and over again.
[10:43] Speaker 5: It also though brings up like for me, there's a
[10:47] Speaker 5: lot of people that have these like established takes that
[10:50] Speaker 5: they think that I still believe that I wrote about
[10:52] Speaker 5: six years ago when I just don't you know, and
[10:55] Speaker 5: sure like the late round QB. Moniker doesn't help. But
[10:59] Speaker 5: at the same time, it's like make sure you're always
[11:01] Speaker 5: consuming and asking questions aside from just assuming that an
[11:05] Speaker 5: analyst is feeling a certain way, but you brought up
[11:08] Speaker 5: your background and stuff like I think that that example
[11:11] Speaker 5: of the thesis thing was. It makes a ton of
[11:14] Speaker 5: sense because and why we clicked when you started at
[11:17] Speaker 5: Number Fire. So for background, Brandon was a managing editor
[11:20] Speaker 5: at Number Fire and fandle for a really long time
[11:22] Speaker 5: under me. You were basically the first like full time
[11:25] Speaker 5: employee that I was able to hire and bring on
[11:28] Speaker 5: to work for me, and you were such a big
[11:30] Speaker 5: help with running the Number Fire editorial and the business
[11:33] Speaker 5: and stuff. But we both had the same mindset of that, Like,
[11:36] Speaker 5: that was the mindset that we went in with all
[11:39] Speaker 5: of our content and that you know, you could talk
[11:41] Speaker 5: to the Scott Barretts of the world, and the Grand
[11:43] Speaker 5: bar Fields and the Chris Raybonds and all these people
[11:45] Speaker 5: who started at Number Fire and you know amazingly or
[11:49] Speaker 5: flourishing and doing great work outside of you know, within
[11:53] Speaker 5: the space. But one of the things that I think
[11:55] Speaker 5: that they would agree on is that, you know, we
[11:57] Speaker 5: were very strict with the way that we would say,
[12:01] Speaker 5: let the data do the talking, Like, don't have these
[12:04] Speaker 5: preconceived notions of what you want to prove, because you
[12:07] Speaker 5: will just force the data to say a certain thing. Instead,
[12:11] Speaker 5: sometimes you're going to research stuff and it's not going
[12:14] Speaker 5: to come out the way that you wanted to come
[12:15] Speaker 5: out and you're gonna be frustrated, but you got to
[12:17] Speaker 5: kind of trash that you might not be able to
[12:19] Speaker 5: write content around that. So I guess my general question
[12:23] Speaker 5: is like, how would you just describe yourself as an analyst?
[12:27] Speaker 5: I think that people are getting an idea right now,
[12:29] Speaker 5: but if you were to sort of sum it up,
[12:31] Speaker 5: how would you describe yourself as an analyst? Like what
[12:33] Speaker 5: does your filmed analytics ratio look like?
[12:35] Speaker 2: Like?
[12:35] Speaker 4: How are you looking at this game of fantasy football?
[12:38] Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean like a film to analytics ratio probably
[12:43] Speaker 2: is if I had to guess, like eighty twenty in
[12:46] Speaker 2: terms of the data, and it's probably closer to ninety ten.
[12:49] Speaker 2: And I would also even say that ten is maybe
[12:53] Speaker 2: not even film. But it's just knowing what I don't know,
[12:56] Speaker 2: and like what limitations are with data? And look, I
[13:01] Speaker 2: think another reason that we click is like we know
[13:03] Speaker 2: that we look at this from a data ens, but
[13:06] Speaker 2: we also know that data doesn't capture everything.
[13:08] Speaker 3: There's nuance that you.
[13:09] Speaker 2: Have to be able to apply and it doesn't always
[13:12] Speaker 2: get applied. And I think that's also kind of like
[13:14] Speaker 2: I'm not going to fight the fight of like film
[13:16] Speaker 2: versus analytics, Like that's not I don't like fights and everything,
[13:20] Speaker 2: but I do think that analytics sometimes gets a bad
[13:23] Speaker 2: rap because people don't always grasp what good data is
[13:29] Speaker 2: and they'll see like the small it's like the joke
[13:33] Speaker 2: of on Monday night when it's like forty seven degrees
[13:37] Speaker 2: like that, you know, the Steelers do that. It's like
[13:41] Speaker 2: that's not yeah, like those are numbers, but like that's
[13:43] Speaker 2: not data, and that's not the way that we look
[13:46] Speaker 2: at things. Like I just think that there's so much
[13:51] Speaker 2: to data that you have to know you don't know,
[13:56] Speaker 2: and then you have to be able to look at
[13:57] Speaker 2: the right types of data. And the right types of
[14:00] Speaker 2: data only emerge when you kind of test things, or
[14:04] Speaker 2: at the very least you step back and say, there's
[14:07] Speaker 2: a two game sample of a player, you know, playing
[14:10] Speaker 2: without the team's wide receiver one. Right, like just let's
[14:14] Speaker 2: say simplified, say start the season in week three, when
[14:17] Speaker 2: that star receiver comes back. You can't just copy.
[14:20] Speaker 3: And paste that, right.
[14:22] Speaker 2: You can't look at yards like you have to look
[14:24] Speaker 2: at different things. So one of the things speaking to Jim,
[14:27] Speaker 2: I'll probably shout him out a couple of times just
[14:29] Speaker 2: because he and I have. You know, we did a
[14:31] Speaker 2: podcast for a decade together, so we have a lot
[14:34] Speaker 2: of the same thoughts on things. I took a lot
[14:36] Speaker 2: from him, But one of the things that he always
[14:38] Speaker 2: like talks about is the most relevant sample. And that's
[14:42] Speaker 2: one of the things that I really took from Jim.
[14:44] Speaker 3: Where it's really easy just to.
[14:46] Speaker 2: Kind of grab the last five games or the last
[14:50] Speaker 2: three games, or the full season. But now in twenty
[14:54] Speaker 2: twenty six, I feel like there's a level of maybe
[14:58] Speaker 2: that's not the best sample. There's a sample with Jacoby
[15:02] Speaker 2: Brissett last year for the Cardinals. That's a different sample
[15:06] Speaker 2: than with different quarterbacks. But there's also a sample Jacoby
[15:09] Speaker 2: Brissett with Marvin Harrison junior, healthy and active. That's a
[15:13] Speaker 2: different sample than looking at the full twenty twenty five
[15:17] Speaker 2: Arizona Cardinals season. So for me, yes, I look at data,
[15:22] Speaker 2: but there are certain things that I do with data
[15:26] Speaker 2: that I think are really important and I don't always
[15:28] Speaker 2: see applied. And again I'm like saying that everybody else
[15:31] Speaker 2: is wrong. That's not what I'm saying. Where I think,
[15:34] Speaker 2: like my my brain goes to is let other people
[15:39] Speaker 2: give me information, Like there are literal coach speak trackers,
[15:44] Speaker 2: because I don't need to sift through, like I don't
[15:46] Speaker 2: need to sift through every interview. I can just let that,
[15:50] Speaker 2: do you know that part of things? For me sportsbook data,
[15:55] Speaker 2: I can let that do so much heavy lifting. Where
[16:00] Speaker 2: do I fit in? It's looking at things that I
[16:02] Speaker 2: don't see talked about enough, and for me, it's a
[16:06] Speaker 2: lot about regression, expected fantasy points, expected touchdowns, looking at
[16:11] Speaker 2: like a you know, I have a model that looks
[16:13] Speaker 2: at that stuff on a play level basis. That's where
[16:16] Speaker 2: I'm like, I don't see that enough. I see yards,
[16:20] Speaker 2: I see market shares, I see yards per route run,
[16:22] Speaker 2: I don't see enough usage of like and like it's
[16:26] Speaker 2: not super widely available. I get that, and not every
[16:30] Speaker 2: expected fantasy points model is the same or expected touchdown
[16:34] Speaker 2: model is the same. But that's the type of thing
[16:36] Speaker 2: where I'm like, I'm not going to learn more about
[16:39] Speaker 2: a team than sportsbooks most likely, Like let me let
[16:44] Speaker 2: me take that from them, let me take the coach
[16:46] Speaker 2: speak from other people, like where can I fit in?
[16:49] Speaker 2: And so I'm always trying to ask questions figure out
[16:52] Speaker 2: like where I can go. So, yes, it's about eighty
[16:54] Speaker 2: to ninety percent film or sorry, analytics over film, and
[16:58] Speaker 2: I don't like I'll watch film a little bit to
[17:01] Speaker 2: see if things are get supported. But I think like
[17:04] Speaker 2: that other is more knowing what we can't really fully
[17:09] Speaker 2: capture and knowing that the data itself is not one
[17:13] Speaker 2: hundred percent indicative of what has happened or what's going
[17:16] Speaker 2: to happen.
[17:17] Speaker 5: I think it's a really important thing to bring up
[17:19] Speaker 5: because people who listen to this show, people who log
[17:23] Speaker 5: onto Twitter.
[17:23] Speaker 4: You know, I've gone on other shows.
[17:25] Speaker 5: I tweeted about this a couple weeks ago, or I'll
[17:28] Speaker 5: go on another show and I'll talk about I'll get
[17:31] Speaker 5: asked about the zapp model or something, and I'll start
[17:33] Speaker 5: talking about it, and then the comments on that show
[17:35] Speaker 5: are like, why does this guy only talk about his
[17:38] Speaker 5: model and analytics?
[17:39] Speaker 4: Well, number one, I'm being asked about it.
[17:40] Speaker 5: But number two, that's my approach with this stuff, right, Like,
[17:44] Speaker 5: that's what I'm trying to bring to the table that
[17:46] Speaker 5: isn't out there from other people, right. And I think
[17:50] Speaker 5: that part of the problem that we run into when
[17:52] Speaker 5: there is disagreement with the way that people are approaching
[17:55] Speaker 5: data is that the loudest, most obnoxious people on social
[18:00] Speaker 5: media are often not doing the best data analysis. You know,
[18:03] Speaker 5: there are so many good data analysts and scientists out
[18:06] Speaker 5: there that unfortunately Number one aren't loud enough. But then
[18:10] Speaker 5: number two don't know how to market what they're doing
[18:12] Speaker 5: well enough, right, And so it's an issue from that
[18:15] Speaker 5: perspective where like, there's some really good stuff out there,
[18:17] Speaker 5: but then people who oppose it are only seeing like
[18:21] Speaker 5: the for lack of better term, idiots out there who
[18:24] Speaker 5: are just spewing things because they want to get clicks,
[18:27] Speaker 5: you know, when there's so much more nuance to what
[18:30] Speaker 5: we're trying to do. And that's why I did want
[18:33] Speaker 5: to have this conversation on perspectives. I think this is
[18:36] Speaker 5: a good time to do it because we've done now,
[18:39] Speaker 5: you know, five six months worth of data work and stuff.
[18:43] Speaker 4: I mean, there's a little bit.
[18:43] Speaker 5: Of an onboarding period and whatnot, but we have done
[18:46] Speaker 5: a lot of that work, and I'm hoping that people
[18:49] Speaker 5: can now see that the work that we are doing
[18:52] Speaker 5: is thought out and nuanced, and it's not just something
[18:55] Speaker 5: that we're throwing out there and saying, hey, we want
[18:58] Speaker 5: to make a buck. This is really you know, this
[19:00] Speaker 5: is the best metric you've ever seen in your life
[19:02] Speaker 5: and this is why you need to use it. That's
[19:04] Speaker 5: not what it is about. This is about us literally
[19:07] Speaker 5: wanting to create the things that we think are missing
[19:09] Speaker 5: in the fantasy space that can help us win in
[19:11] Speaker 5: fantasy football. And while understanding that there is nuance to this,
[19:17] Speaker 5: that there is this like attention to detail and this
[19:20] Speaker 5: context that's needed and stuff like that that often gets
[19:23] Speaker 5: missed unfortunately, and that's what gives analysis and analytical analysis
[19:27] Speaker 5: a bad name.
[19:28] Speaker 4: In the end, I.
[19:29] Speaker 3: Gave credit to Jim.
[19:30] Speaker 2: I'll give credit to you one thing that you always
[19:34] Speaker 2: and this is not because you're you know, my boss again,
[19:37] Speaker 2: but one thing I learned from you is it doesn't
[19:40] Speaker 2: really matter if you have a model if that model
[19:43] Speaker 2: is not better than what exists and in whatever way
[19:47] Speaker 2: you're measuring it. And like you can throw out any
[19:52] Speaker 2: types of data, but like let's just say, you know,
[19:56] Speaker 2: air yards per route run might sound cool, but is
[20:00] Speaker 2: better than anything else. I'm sorry if there's like an
[20:03] Speaker 2: air yards per route run guy out there.
[20:05] Speaker 5: Like no, I mean, like I think I think a
[20:07] Speaker 5: great example of that is, like we've seen a lot
[20:10] Speaker 5: of and it's interesting data and there could be signal
[20:13] Speaker 5: to it, and there could, but I've tested some of it.
[20:15] Speaker 4: But like yards per route run.
[20:17] Speaker 5: Minus screens for instance, Right, Like, that kind of stuff
[20:22] Speaker 5: is not as predictive as you might think because it
[20:25] Speaker 5: is intuitive.
[20:26] Speaker 4: It makes sense in our brains.
[20:27] Speaker 5: But at the same time, you can look at that
[20:30] Speaker 5: from the opposite angle and say, well, screens are actually
[20:34] Speaker 5: not bad for a player because that's intent and it
[20:36] Speaker 5: shows that they're probably good at football and that's still scoring.
[20:40] Speaker 5: Like it's like the takeaway their biggest play kind of analysis. Well,
[20:43] Speaker 5: that play happened and it's important.
[20:45] Speaker 3: And they can make big plays.
[20:47] Speaker 5: Yeah, right exactly, it's like part of the allure of
[20:50] Speaker 5: that player, right Like, there's just that context that's seen it.
[20:53] Speaker 4: But I appreciate the love because I do.
[20:55] Speaker 5: Think it's important that if if you're gonna work on
[20:57] Speaker 5: something and you're gonna publish something, it be helpful.
[21:00] Speaker 4: It's that simple. It shouldn't It shouldn't lead an audience
[21:04] Speaker 4: astray where they're now.
[21:05] Speaker 5: And look, I've been guilty of publishing things a little
[21:08] Speaker 5: bit too early I think, you know, like ideas and
[21:11] Speaker 5: theories and I and all that, because I'm kind of
[21:14] Speaker 5: taking the audience on a journey with me. But then
[21:17] Speaker 5: I regret that to a degree. Like I remember doing
[21:20] Speaker 5: the ambiguous RB one theory or something like that. It
[21:22] Speaker 5: was called where I thought that in ambiguous backfields, the
[21:27] Speaker 5: the RB one that was drafted was typically the best
[21:29] Speaker 5: player and the one that exceeded expectation. But I realized
[21:32] Speaker 5: the sample sizes were too small. It was just not
[21:34] Speaker 5: the right way to really look at that analysis, and
[21:37] Speaker 5: so I pivoted off of it. But then again, going
[21:40] Speaker 5: back to what we were talking about earlier, people stick
[21:42] Speaker 5: with it and they're like.
[21:42] Speaker 4: Well, no, we should be drafting the first running back
[21:44] Speaker 4: and ambiguous backfield and that's not really the case.
[21:46] Speaker 5: But with all that being said, you built out and
[21:49] Speaker 5: help build out the ZAP model for tight ends this year,
[21:52] Speaker 5: and that was a huge ad. You know, we worked
[21:56] Speaker 5: on that a lot in January and in February, and
[21:59] Speaker 5: it was a huge ad for the Prospect Guide, Late Round,
[22:03] Speaker 5: Fantasy Football, all that stuff. And you have a way
[22:07] Speaker 5: more intimate, you know, understanding of the tight end class
[22:11] Speaker 5: than I do, because you wrote up all of the prospects.
[22:13] Speaker 5: I mean, I obviously you know know it, but you
[22:16] Speaker 5: know it on a very very deep level. And my
[22:19] Speaker 5: question to start this with the tight ends is Kenyan Sidik.
[22:24] Speaker 5: Sadiq has a lot of haters out there, like more
[22:27] Speaker 5: than I anticipated there being. I think more than because
[22:30] Speaker 5: like I'm more online than you are with some of
[22:33] Speaker 5: this stuff and like seeing what's going on, what people
[22:34] Speaker 5: are talking about in the fantasy space and whatnot. And
[22:37] Speaker 5: I remember like hitting you up and being like, yeah,
[22:39] Speaker 5: they're saying all and you were like pretty surprised by
[22:42] Speaker 5: the reaction with Sadik. But what would you say to
[22:45] Speaker 5: people who may be drafted Sidik in their rookie drafts
[22:48] Speaker 5: or thinking about drafting them in Best Ball or whatever
[22:50] Speaker 5: the case may be, to give more of the bowl
[22:52] Speaker 5: case for Sadik and why the model seems to not
[22:55] Speaker 5: hate them.
[22:56] Speaker 3: Yeah.
[22:56] Speaker 2: It's funny because I was digging in tight ends and
[23:00] Speaker 2: I was like, Okay, there's there's one guy. He's the
[23:03] Speaker 2: number one first rounder, Kenyon Sadik. I'm like, yeah, but
[23:07] Speaker 2: there's some stuff here I'm gonna like be a little
[23:10] Speaker 2: bit contrary. And I was like, Nope, people hate him
[23:12] Speaker 2: way more than I do. So now I feel like
[23:15] Speaker 2: I'm strangely defending a top sixteen, very young, super athletic
[23:22] Speaker 2: tight end, and it just feels like we maybe lost
[23:25] Speaker 2: the plot with what a fantasy football tight end generally is. Andah,
[23:31] Speaker 2: I think some of that applies to to Sadik, So
[23:35] Speaker 2: I'll get into some stuff, but I mean, like the
[23:37] Speaker 2: case for Sidik is pretty and I mean especially with
[23:39] Speaker 2: the landing spots like Jets like no thanks, He's total.
[23:43] Speaker 2: It's like, so it's like there's a lot to like
[23:47] Speaker 2: about Sidiq if you want to see it that way,
[23:50] Speaker 2: like if you're really like bearish and you want to
[23:52] Speaker 2: see it that way, I guess, but I think there's
[23:55] Speaker 2: a lot more good than bad. Again, if you're calibrated
[23:58] Speaker 2: with what a fantasy football tight end generally is and
[24:03] Speaker 2: can be. And I'm about to argue for like Noah
[24:06] Speaker 2: Fan and Evan Ingram that people probably just don't understand
[24:10] Speaker 2: about them. But for side, Yeah, like so Sidi top
[24:14] Speaker 2: sixteen pick that matters. We've had since twenty sixteen, we've
[24:18] Speaker 2: had eleven first round tight ends in their rookie seasons.
[24:21] Speaker 3: They've had an.
[24:22] Speaker 2: Average target share of fifteen point eight percent. So I'm
[24:25] Speaker 2: a sixteen percent that would be the tight end twenty
[24:28] Speaker 2: one last year based on the relevant or the games
[24:32] Speaker 2: that guy's actually played in for contexts like that's not
[24:34] Speaker 2: going to blow you away. If you look at the
[24:37] Speaker 2: top sixteen tight ends their target share on average a
[24:42] Speaker 2: nineteen point six percent since twenty sixteen as a rookie,
[24:46] Speaker 2: that would be like a tight end ten by target
[24:49] Speaker 2: share as a rookie.
[24:52] Speaker 3: Now.
[24:52] Speaker 2: I talked about this in the Prospect Guide too, but
[24:55] Speaker 2: Frank Reich historically has been friendly to the position across
[25:00] Speaker 2: ten seasons where he was the team's coordinator or head coach.
[25:04] Speaker 2: His squad's just just once ranked outside the top twenty
[25:07] Speaker 2: and tight end target share they were top five four
[25:10] Speaker 2: different times. And like, you don't draft Kenyon Sadiq sixteenth
[25:15] Speaker 2: overall to treat him like a eight percent target share guy.
[25:21] Speaker 2: If they do okay, then sure, but even the like
[25:26] Speaker 2: on the low end, like that's like the low end
[25:28] Speaker 2: for like the late round one picks about a borderline
[25:32] Speaker 2: like ten percent target share as a rookie. I just
[25:35] Speaker 2: don't see that being the case for Sadik. It just
[25:38] Speaker 2: seems like people also are holding his competition against him,
[25:42] Speaker 2: or maybe don't fully like look into his competition, but
[25:47] Speaker 2: you know, there are a lot of guys have competition.
[25:49] Speaker 2: I get it, But he played with Terence Ferguson, who's
[25:54] Speaker 2: probably a very good tight end as we'll learn, maybe not,
[25:57] Speaker 2: but on paper he should be very good. Tees Johnson,
[26:01] Speaker 2: Troy Franklin, Bucky Irving, Jamari Johnson is projected to be
[26:06] Speaker 2: a first rounder next year, and he's a tight end.
[26:08] Speaker 2: Like Sadik, had a lot of competition and whenever the
[26:13] Speaker 2: Ducks just lost a lot of that competition. From twenty
[26:17] Speaker 2: twenty three to twenty twenty four, Sadik got more involved,
[26:20] Speaker 2: but he played behind Ferguson. There were three receivers with
[26:23] Speaker 2: over six hundred yards and then lost more gave him
[26:28] Speaker 2: more opportunity, and then he set Oregon's single season tight
[26:31] Speaker 2: end record in receptions. He played with his third quarterback
[26:35] Speaker 2: in his many seasons, and like we're in this new
[26:38] Speaker 2: NFL landscape where we saw Marlon Klein go fifty ninth
[26:42] Speaker 2: overall to the Texans. And for anybody who doesn't know,
[26:47] Speaker 2: he played behind Holston Loveland, who's like a probably a
[26:51] Speaker 2: generational tight end prospect and a J Barner Luke spoon maker.
[26:56] Speaker 2: He had thirty eight career catches in a touchdown.
[26:58] Speaker 3: I think we're like entering.
[26:59] Speaker 2: This territory where NFL coaches and staffs are like, tight
[27:06] Speaker 2: end is this new, fun, interesting position, but it's also
[27:11] Speaker 2: multiple positions in one and like they might look at
[27:14] Speaker 2: a player and be like, why was this guy blocking?
[27:17] Speaker 2: Why didn't they get him more involved a running back
[27:20] Speaker 2: and receiver, Like you're generally like, if you're not getting
[27:23] Speaker 2: the ball, there's probably a reason. Yes, some running backs
[27:28] Speaker 2: are phenomenal pass blockers, some receivers are great run blockers.
[27:33] Speaker 2: But like, tight end is this weird hybrid position where
[27:37] Speaker 2: one coaching staff in college might view it differently, and
[27:42] Speaker 2: then we see like Houston, they probably think that Marlon
[27:45] Speaker 2: Klein has a lot of potential to be used in
[27:47] Speaker 2: a way that he wasn't in college. And it's not
[27:52] Speaker 2: even like I'm making the case for Marlin Klein so
[27:56] Speaker 2: that I can say Kenyan Sadik was productive. It's not
[28:00] Speaker 2: like he didn't have production. It just took him three
[28:03] Speaker 2: years and now he got drafted just after turning twenty one,
[28:08] Speaker 2: and like all of this is a positive. In the
[28:11] Speaker 2: Zapp Model database, there have been six first round tight
[28:14] Speaker 2: ends younger than twenty one and a half at draft time.
[28:16] Speaker 2: Brock Bauers, Kyle Pitts, Poston Loveland, Eric Ebron, Noah Fan,
[28:21] Speaker 2: and David and Joku. All of them had a peak
[28:24] Speaker 2: year within their first three NFL seasons with at least
[28:27] Speaker 2: nine PPR points per game. And I think this is
[28:29] Speaker 2: where this all lands. It's like, what is a good
[28:34] Speaker 2: tight end outcome for people?
[28:36] Speaker 3: If it's just.
[28:37] Speaker 2: Cherry picking George Kittle and Rob Gronkowski and like Peak
[28:43] Speaker 2: more and like Morgan Andrews his like Peak wasn't even sustained,
[28:48] Speaker 2: is theirs? Like if you're looking for fifteen plus, you
[28:52] Speaker 2: know PPR points per game for tight ends, you just
[28:55] Speaker 2: don't see it very often. You're basically cherry picking the best.
[29:00] Speaker 2: So Sidiq in the in the model, the Zapp model
[29:03] Speaker 2: gets comped to Noah Fant. Noah Fan was a top
[29:06] Speaker 2: ten tight end in two of his first three seasons.
[29:09] Speaker 2: He gets comped to Evan Ingram. Ingram was a top
[29:12] Speaker 2: seven tight end in all three of his first three years.
[29:15] Speaker 2: They just didn't score a lot of touchdowns as well,
[29:18] Speaker 2: but both were top nine. If you go back to
[29:19] Speaker 2: twenty eleven and look at a player's first three years,
[29:23] Speaker 2: they were both top nine among tight ends drafted in
[29:26] Speaker 2: that span in yardage. It's just like, there they're the
[29:30] Speaker 2: tier below Kittle, McBride Andrews. It's like, that is a
[29:34] Speaker 2: good outcome. It's not the elite like outlier outcome. This
[29:40] Speaker 2: is all good production. I think people just like are like,
[29:43] Speaker 2: if you're not brock Bauers, you're just the guy. That's
[29:45] Speaker 2: kind of what it feels like.
[29:47] Speaker 5: Yes, yes, I agree. And part of the problem is
[29:51] Speaker 5: exactly that. And it's like when I published the rank
[29:54] Speaker 5: like rookie rankings and Kenyan sidek has a really good
[29:57] Speaker 5: ZAP score, and then people are like, well, why is
[29:59] Speaker 5: he ranked low Casey Concepcione for instance. Well, the reason
[30:03] Speaker 5: for that is because the position, like you just said,
[30:05] Speaker 5: is not giving you as much value in fantasy football
[30:08] Speaker 5: as wide receiver will give you.
[30:09] Speaker 4: It doesn't mean, though that.
[30:11] Speaker 5: The score within the position, because it's in the context
[30:14] Speaker 5: of other tight ends, is what that ZAP score says.
[30:17] Speaker 5: That doesn't mean that he's bad within the position. He's
[30:20] Speaker 5: actually very good within the position. It's just that when
[30:23] Speaker 5: we look back and because obviously we rebuilt the tight
[30:26] Speaker 5: end ZAP model, and we can look back and see
[30:29] Speaker 5: who has perfect scores, and it's brock Bowers, it's Kyle Pitts,
[30:34] Speaker 5: Colson Lovelin I think had a score of one hundred
[30:36] Speaker 5: in the newest one. Are those the three that had
[30:39] Speaker 5: I think, yeah, yeah, And it's like all three of them.
[30:43] Speaker 5: You know, Kyle Pitts has hit bumps in the road,
[30:45] Speaker 5: but like even his output is way better than what
[30:48] Speaker 5: anyone should realistically like from an expectation standpoint, He's still
[30:52] Speaker 5: done very very well in fantasy football. It's just that
[30:56] Speaker 5: I think tight end has had this really weird perception
[30:59] Speaker 5: problem because understandably in season long, I mean in fantasy
[31:03] Speaker 5: in general, we really should be chasing high end tight
[31:06] Speaker 5: ends like that's because those are the difference makers, those
[31:09] Speaker 5: are the ones that truly do matter. But I think
[31:11] Speaker 5: that if you're looking at this class and you're saying,
[31:13] Speaker 5: who has an opportunity at some chance to be that guy,
[31:17] Speaker 5: it's him, and then it's Eli Stowers probably is the
[31:20] Speaker 5: other one. But you know, Eli Stowers has generally been
[31:24] Speaker 5: that tight end two in this class. The real question,
[31:29] Speaker 5: I think starts a tight end three. Do you have
[31:31] Speaker 5: a tight end three? Now the ZAP model. Here's the
[31:34] Speaker 5: other thing too, is that when we do our rankings,
[31:36] Speaker 5: it's not going to be one to one of the
[31:37] Speaker 5: ZAP model, especially for lower tiered players, like the higher
[31:41] Speaker 5: tiered ones will generally align with because those guys have
[31:46] Speaker 5: separated themselves enough to say, Okay, we do feel pretty
[31:49] Speaker 5: confident that they're better than the rep.
[31:50] Speaker 4: But when it comes to like a ZAP.
[31:52] Speaker 5: Score of fifty or forty or whatever the case may be,
[31:55] Speaker 5: we're talking about lower tiered players that are more flex
[31:58] Speaker 5: plays at best in fantasy football, and so we're gonna
[32:01] Speaker 5: let situation and stuff and some of the stuff that
[32:03] Speaker 5: we more subjectively like dictate where we might rank these guys. So,
[32:08] Speaker 5: as someone yourself, having written and analyzed all these tight
[32:12] Speaker 5: end prospects, I know that Stours is the two for you,
[32:15] Speaker 5: But who is the three?
[32:16] Speaker 4: Who's the third best tight end of this class? Do
[32:18] Speaker 4: you think this.
[32:19] Speaker 2: Is a really difficult one, not because there aren't options,
[32:24] Speaker 2: but because of where Max Claire went. I still think,
[32:29] Speaker 2: like Chips down, I'm looking at at a rookie draft,
[32:33] Speaker 2: I'm gonna go Max Claire as tight end three.
[32:36] Speaker 3: Yeah, he led this. He leads this.
[32:38] Speaker 2: Class in breakout score, super predictive at receiver, still pretty
[32:42] Speaker 2: predictive at tight end, and whenever you lead again, sort
[32:47] Speaker 2: of a generational top of the first half. You know,
[32:50] Speaker 2: talent in Kenyon sidek. Everybody's favorite Eli Stowers fantasy football.
[32:56] Speaker 2: Just like, no, no, he's the tight end one. It's
[32:58] Speaker 2: like the NFL doesn't see it that way. Max Claire
[33:02] Speaker 2: still has draft capital, and like, yes, he's got a
[33:05] Speaker 2: bit of a crowded tight end room right now. But
[33:08] Speaker 2: I think that if I had to sort of just
[33:10] Speaker 2: bet on one of these other guys, the safest bet
[33:13] Speaker 2: with a path to like, no, this guy had like
[33:16] Speaker 2: multiple top six tight end seasons would be Max Claire.
[33:21] Speaker 2: He was very productive at Purdue, then he transferred to
[33:25] Speaker 2: Ohio State, was a little bit less productive, but he
[33:27] Speaker 2: played alongside Jeremi Smith, Cardel Tate. Obviously Will Kasmerk another
[33:32] Speaker 2: tight end who was drafted eighty seventh overall.
[33:35] Speaker 3: He was more of a run.
[33:36] Speaker 2: Blocker, but like a lot of competition at Ohio State
[33:40] Speaker 2: was he was third in receptions behind Smith and Tate,
[33:42] Speaker 2: and like, yeah, he didn't have as good of a
[33:45] Speaker 2: market share, you know, just sort of high end output
[33:49] Speaker 2: as he did at Purdue, but like he was still
[33:52] Speaker 2: relevant at Ohio State, and so now I think you
[33:55] Speaker 2: put him on a RAMS team. It's a very good system.
[34:00] Speaker 2: Hopefully like matth you know, they got their quarterback in
[34:03] Speaker 2: the future too, I guess, so this should be a
[34:05] Speaker 2: good infrastructure for Claire, who I think could very easily
[34:09] Speaker 2: turn into the tight end three like by a good margin.
[34:13] Speaker 2: Because there's there's a lot to like about all these
[34:15] Speaker 2: other tight ends, but there are kind of reasons why
[34:18] Speaker 2: they didn't stand out like Claire did. Claire kind of
[34:22] Speaker 2: has that like he's got some Mark Andrews to him
[34:26] Speaker 2: and like again, just like you go back, most most
[34:30] Speaker 2: of the high end performers weren't first rounders. Like it
[34:35] Speaker 2: takes the right situation, the right the right scheme to me,
[34:39] Speaker 2: I think Max Claire long term has the highest sort
[34:42] Speaker 2: of probability of hitting and giving us multiple like producible
[34:48] Speaker 2: tight end like top six seasons among this class outside
[34:51] Speaker 2: of the top two.
[34:52] Speaker 5: We also have to be open minded about, like we
[34:54] Speaker 5: both like Terrence Ferguson, but there's also definitely an out
[34:57] Speaker 5: where he just doesn't hit, like he has to get
[34:58] Speaker 5: better as a blocker, he to do more like he
[35:01] Speaker 5: there's improvement that needs to be done with Terrence Ferguson
[35:03] Speaker 5: that I think when you look at his profile.
[35:06] Speaker 4: Versus Max Claire's. For instance, Claire.
[35:09] Speaker 5: Looks like a more well rounded tight end, whereas Ferguson
[35:14] Speaker 5: looks like the Darren Waller ceiling play, you know, like
[35:18] Speaker 5: the like could actually break fantasy football potentially, whereas Claire,
[35:21] Speaker 5: like you said, is like the Andrews, like like maybe
[35:24] Speaker 5: not the Kittle outcome or something like that, but like
[35:27] Speaker 5: a very very you know, solid, way above average type outcome.
[35:31] Speaker 2: And there are so many names and profiles in the
[35:35] Speaker 2: Zapp model at tight end built on man, if this
[35:38] Speaker 2: guy hits, lookout and it's like they don't always hit. Yeah,
[35:42] Speaker 2: And that's that's not to put anybody in that particular bucket,
[35:45] Speaker 2: like Ferguson in that bucket, But tight end's this weird combination.
[35:49] Speaker 2: Like some teams want you to block more or make
[35:52] Speaker 2: sure you can block before.
[35:53] Speaker 3: You get on the field. Some teams are like, we're
[35:55] Speaker 3: just gonna make you big slot receiver.
[35:57] Speaker 4: Yeah.
[35:57] Speaker 2: And I think that Max Claire brings enough, just like
[36:01] Speaker 2: safety to an offense that he could be like a
[36:04] Speaker 2: low like a high floor kind of play and in
[36:07] Speaker 2: a good scoring season, he's like a you know, top
[36:09] Speaker 2: three tight end.
[36:10] Speaker 3: Yeah.
[36:10] Speaker 5: Down the line, any sleeper tight ends from the class,
[36:13] Speaker 5: because that's something that because basically you get to like
[36:15] Speaker 5: the round five, round six, and rookie drafts right now,
[36:17] Speaker 5: and you're only looking at tight ends for the most
[36:19] Speaker 5: part because the running back and wide receiver classes are
[36:22] Speaker 5: so weak.
[36:22] Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it kind of depends. I see a
[36:24] Speaker 2: lot of like there's still generally a big three at
[36:28] Speaker 2: tight end, with Claire usually being the tight end three
[36:31] Speaker 2: in most rankings, and then it's like, what's truly a sleeper,
[36:35] Speaker 2: So I'll give some like shallower ones, but then also
[36:38] Speaker 2: two deeper cuts. I do want to shout out Oscar Delp.
[36:41] Speaker 2: He's a tight end seven on keep trade cut, so
[36:44] Speaker 2: I would assume he counts for this, but great athlete,
[36:46] Speaker 2: he's gonna get to play half of it. I guess
[36:48] Speaker 2: over half of his games to play the Falcons indoors
[36:51] Speaker 2: sub four five second forty yard dashes pro day and
[36:54] Speaker 2: even adjusting that like he for you know, slow it
[36:56] Speaker 2: down a little bit. He's got the second best height
[36:58] Speaker 2: adjusted speed score in the CLA. It's a pretty old
[37:01] Speaker 2: tight end room in New Orleans, and I think there's
[37:03] Speaker 2: like a good opening for Delp long term to kind
[37:06] Speaker 2: of be maybe that like Kittle type where it's like, hey,
[37:10] Speaker 2: this guy into a ton in college, by the way,
[37:12] Speaker 2: played behind brock Bauers, and like, you know, had some
[37:15] Speaker 2: competition there. So I would say delp and then for
[37:18] Speaker 2: another shallow want to shout out Eli rahadon who I
[37:21] Speaker 2: think you.
[37:22] Speaker 3: Have as the tight end three.
[37:23] Speaker 2: I do, but he's he's outside the top five in
[37:26] Speaker 2: consensus ranks on Fantasy pros, so maybe people aren't taking
[37:29] Speaker 2: him that seriously. But productive, like efficient receiver. Didn't score
[37:33] Speaker 2: a lot of touchdowns though, had some injuries, but I
[37:35] Speaker 2: think he could morph into like kind of a bit
[37:38] Speaker 2: of a difference maker. But as far as like true
[37:40] Speaker 2: sleepers go, I think this is probably more of what
[37:42] Speaker 2: you're you're looking for. Tanner coziol I would say he
[37:46] Speaker 2: was the It's like, it's not it's not often that
[37:49] Speaker 2: you're looking at the second tight end drafted on a team.
[37:53] Speaker 2: But like Tanner cooziol is more of the fantasy friendly
[37:56] Speaker 2: tight end drafted by the Jaguars. Compared to Nate Borkicher,
[38:00] Speaker 2: Nate Orchature, he was like a name that I was like,
[38:02] Speaker 2: this guy's like a third round like mock draft pick
[38:05] Speaker 2: pretty much everywhere. I'm like, why, Yeah, like the receiving
[38:09] Speaker 2: data is not there. I'm like, he's just got the
[38:11] Speaker 2: blockings there. You kind of watch some film. I did
[38:14] Speaker 2: watch film on these guys like that. That's I wouldn't
[38:17] Speaker 2: really count that as my my process, my general process
[38:20] Speaker 2: for fantasy football, but I did watch a lot more
[38:22] Speaker 2: film for these prospects. It's like, Okay, I get it.
[38:26] Speaker 2: But Tanner Cozio one of my favorite kind of like
[38:28] Speaker 2: stats from this class was Tanner Coozio led two different
[38:31] Speaker 2: offenses and back to back years in receptions at ball
[38:34] Speaker 2: State and then at Houston, really really good breakout score
[38:37] Speaker 2: max yards per team attempt, both above the eighty fifth
[38:39] Speaker 2: percentile within the model. Like I think that there's a
[38:42] Speaker 2: chance that he just sort of plays like a nice role.
[38:47] Speaker 2: I know there's Brenton Strange there. I know Borkichure should
[38:50] Speaker 2: be on the field, like Borchardure is gonna be on
[38:52] Speaker 2: those guys. I get up my snap grid each week,
[38:54] Speaker 2: it's like played, you know, seventy percent of the snaps,
[38:57] Speaker 2: but I didn't see a target. Again, I think Cozy
[39:00] Speaker 2: has a chance to morph into something. And then the
[39:03] Speaker 2: real sleeper probably is Michael Trigg, undrafted free agent to
[39:07] Speaker 2: the Cowboys had off field concerns, but some sources, some
[39:13] Speaker 2: mock drafters had him as the tight end two. And
[39:15] Speaker 2: I understand why. Like when you look at the film,
[39:18] Speaker 2: you're like, oh, yeah, I see the place he's making
[39:21] Speaker 2: the same place you'd see on red zone or a
[39:23] Speaker 2: highlight reel. It's like he's making catches, run after the
[39:26] Speaker 2: catch kind of stuff. Offield concerns. Not the most complete blocker,
[39:30] Speaker 2: but he also had the unfortunate pro day vertical of
[39:35] Speaker 2: twenty seven and a half inches, but he was dealing
[39:36] Speaker 2: with the hamstring. Apparently there's a lot for him to
[39:39] Speaker 2: overcome being an undrafted free agent, but there's a lot
[39:44] Speaker 2: of potential for Michael Trigg. And I think if you're
[39:46] Speaker 2: like looking at it just a late round pick in
[39:51] Speaker 2: a rookie draft or he just kind of floats there,
[39:56] Speaker 2: I think he's actually he might be the tight end three.
[40:00] Speaker 2: On where is he on keep trade cut. He's up
[40:03] Speaker 2: there as far as rookie tight ends go. He's the
[40:07] Speaker 2: tight end four. So I don't know where he actually
[40:09] Speaker 2: shape up, But like people probably already had their their
[40:12] Speaker 2: rookie drafts, like keep an eye on Michael Trigg.
[40:14] Speaker 5: I'll just say that yeah, yeah, I mean the drafts
[40:17] Speaker 5: that I've done, he's been you know, bought last round
[40:21] Speaker 5: type pick, So that's a good call. Like him and
[40:24] Speaker 5: John Michael Gillenborg have been the two that I've thrown
[40:27] Speaker 5: darts at at tight end, just because with John Michael
[40:30] Speaker 5: Gillenborg you got an interesting situation in Kansas City. And
[40:33] Speaker 5: then obviously the athletic profile is pretty good. Production profile
[40:37] Speaker 5: even when adjusted is still fine enough, you know, justine
[40:40] Speaker 5: for program and stuff. So I like the call out
[40:42] Speaker 5: a lot as a bit of a teaser. You've also
[40:44] Speaker 5: been doing some research on on offensive coordinators for the
[40:47] Speaker 5: Late Round newsletter, which, by the way, guys subscribe to
[40:50] Speaker 5: the newsletter lateround dot com.
[40:52] Speaker 4: It's absolutely free.
[40:53] Speaker 5: Brandon's doing basically an article every week in there, all
[40:57] Speaker 5: very heavily researched, really interesting stuff, so check it out.
[41:00] Speaker 5: Just go to lateround dot com sign up for free
[41:02] Speaker 5: for the newsletter. But you're doing some work on offensive coordinators,
[41:05] Speaker 5: and so my question to you is which coordinator shift
[41:08] Speaker 5: do you think could result in the best turnaround for
[41:11] Speaker 5: an offensive Yeah.
[41:12] Speaker 2: I'll be pedantic here because like turnarounds the key term.
[41:16] Speaker 2: I think that honestly, if that wasn't the way you
[41:19] Speaker 2: phrased it. I might honestly just shout out, like Drew
[41:21] Speaker 2: pettsing with the Lions and say, maybe this team just
[41:24] Speaker 2: throws a ton and we get like an all time
[41:25] Speaker 2: PPR season by Jamior Gibbs. But I think it's really
[41:29] Speaker 2: hard and I know you'll, you'll, everyone's gonna be on
[41:32] Speaker 2: board with this.
[41:32] Speaker 3: But Mike McDaniel with the Chargers.
[41:35] Speaker 2: It's just it's such like an easy call that I
[41:38] Speaker 2: still don't know is being fully like sort of applied,
[41:42] Speaker 2: like in terms of just overall sentiment with the Chargers
[41:47] Speaker 2: and in best ball drafts that I'm doing, I feel
[41:49] Speaker 2: like the hype hasn't really been there yet. But and like, yeah, turnaround,
[41:54] Speaker 2: it's not like the Charger were terrible, but they were
[41:56] Speaker 2: below average and EPA per play last year. The ceiling
[41:59] Speaker 2: just as like probably the number one offense, which is
[42:02] Speaker 2: what McDaniel had in twenty twenty three with the Dolphins.
[42:05] Speaker 2: He's now got all the weapons in the world, including
[42:08] Speaker 2: Justin Herbert, and I just want to say, like the Chargers,
[42:11] Speaker 2: they were middle of the pack and explosive plays last season.
[42:14] Speaker 2: Herbert was like average in an average depth of target
[42:17] Speaker 2: so a DOT. But like these these last two seasons
[42:22] Speaker 2: for Miami, like to a tongo Ba though has just
[42:25] Speaker 2: not pushed the ball downfield at all. He's been at
[42:28] Speaker 2: least a yard or more worse than the league average
[42:31] Speaker 2: in a DOT the last two years. Like it, I
[42:35] Speaker 2: think that there's still and like Miami kind of was
[42:39] Speaker 2: still efficient ish despite to me having like a big
[42:43] Speaker 2: question mark at quarterback. And so it's like I think, yeah,
[42:49] Speaker 2: it's like I think the luster might be off. It's like, oh,
[42:52] Speaker 2: you know, teams figured out all the motion all this.
[42:55] Speaker 2: It's like, I don't think that they were really a
[42:58] Speaker 2: fully complete offense, and I think that they would have
[43:01] Speaker 2: been a lot worse with somebody else there. And it's
[43:04] Speaker 2: not like the Chargers didn't use motion or anything last year,
[43:07] Speaker 2: but they didn't get the most out of it. There
[43:10] Speaker 2: are EPA numbers when using motion were not where you'd
[43:13] Speaker 2: want it to be. I just think that from an
[43:15] Speaker 2: upside case, going from sort of a I mean there
[43:18] Speaker 2: were twentieth in points per game last year twenty one
[43:20] Speaker 2: point eight. To turn that around to the top five offense,
[43:24] Speaker 2: I think that that's like a very simple thing if
[43:26] Speaker 2: you look at their average imply team total based on
[43:28] Speaker 2: DraftKings Sportsbook odds, it's twenty three point eight points per game,
[43:31] Speaker 2: which is eleventh. It's been within a half point of
[43:34] Speaker 2: being a top eight offense right there. They have some
[43:37] Speaker 2: schedule issues though, which I think is also part of it.
[43:39] Speaker 2: They played four teams coming off of a buy, which
[43:42] Speaker 2: isn't great. That's tied for the most in the league,
[43:44] Speaker 2: so that could also be kind of factored into that
[43:46] Speaker 2: a little bit. But I think that they're very close
[43:48] Speaker 2: here to being a top five offense, and there's a
[43:51] Speaker 2: lot of ways you can get exposure to this team.
[43:53] Speaker 2: But I know you like the Chargers as well.
[43:56] Speaker 4: Oh yeah, super super.
[43:57] Speaker 5: I feel like I've been talking about the Chargers, you know,
[44:00] Speaker 5: for weeks on the show and such. But it's important
[44:02] Speaker 5: to call out this is to hear from someone else's voice,
[44:06] Speaker 5: in someone else's mind, who's studying this stuff is in
[44:08] Speaker 5: just as much detail. Which coordinator, though, on the opposite end,
[44:14] Speaker 5: scares you.
[44:15] Speaker 2: This one could be a little bit of a cop out,
[44:17] Speaker 2: but I wanted to look at a team that I
[44:18] Speaker 2: think we have some good expectations for who they just
[44:23] Speaker 2: might not be as efficient as maybe we would want
[44:25] Speaker 2: them to be, but I'm looking for this one specifically
[44:29] Speaker 2: for the Falcons. Tommy Reese. Obviously we love Bijon, He's
[44:33] Speaker 2: a consensus top two pick. Drake London, I've always been
[44:36] Speaker 2: a fan of his. He's firmly a second rounder. And
[44:40] Speaker 2: then speaking of great tight end prospects, Kyle Piss coming
[44:43] Speaker 2: off of a career year, and I think some I've
[44:46] Speaker 2: seen multiple people kind of're not people, but like vibes
[44:50] Speaker 2: of like he's never really called plays Tommy Reese like
[44:52] Speaker 2: he did. He called plays in college for four years
[44:55] Speaker 2: across Notre Dame in Alabama. He took over last year
[44:59] Speaker 2: with the Brown down the stretch and it's like it
[45:02] Speaker 2: wasn't great. It was slightly worse than their first half
[45:06] Speaker 2: of the year. Cleveland was bottom three and epa per
[45:09] Speaker 2: play from Week ten onward, which again you have to
[45:12] Speaker 2: kind of account for the context of this team that
[45:15] Speaker 2: he was, you know, call in place four, but it
[45:18] Speaker 2: was a downgrade from where it was slight, but still
[45:21] Speaker 2: a downgrade. Their pass right over expectation dipped from minus
[45:25] Speaker 2: three point six to minus four point two after the
[45:28] Speaker 2: play caller change as well, and ultimately, like I'll just
[45:33] Speaker 2: like I don't love this quarterback room for this team,
[45:36] Speaker 2: and I think you have to trust that, like an
[45:39] Speaker 2: offensive play caller is going to get the most out
[45:42] Speaker 2: of a subpar quarterback situation. That's where things get sort
[45:47] Speaker 2: of thrown into question. Last year, the Falcons averaged twenty
[45:50] Speaker 2: point eight points per game.
[45:51] Speaker 3: I was twenty fourth. If you look at their.
[45:53] Speaker 2: Imply team total across all their games from DraftKings Sportsbook
[45:56] Speaker 2: Imply team total on average twenty one point two. That's
[45:58] Speaker 2: also twenty fourth. It's not just me saying, hey, you know,
[46:03] Speaker 2: let's back off of the Falcons. It's like, it's kind
[46:06] Speaker 2: of they were subpar. They have question marks at quarterback.
[46:10] Speaker 2: And it doesn't mean that I don't like Bijon. I'm
[46:12] Speaker 2: gonna take them second. If I don't take Jamiir, Like,
[46:14] Speaker 2: if I can't get Jamior Gibbs first, let's just take
[46:16] Speaker 2: bj On second. I still like Drake London. I think
[46:18] Speaker 2: the market shares will be there. What I think is
[46:20] Speaker 2: probably more likely is these guys have good target shares,
[46:24] Speaker 2: but the offense thaws out a little bit. Two, we
[46:27] Speaker 2: can't push the ball downfield, like he can't make plays
[46:30] Speaker 2: or I'm not the biggest like Michael Pennox fan either,
[46:33] Speaker 2: So like, I just think it's more of a this
[46:36] Speaker 2: team could go from like twentieth an offense to like
[46:41] Speaker 2: twentieth in offense and whenever you can have the market
[46:44] Speaker 2: shares be elite, that's awesome, But from like a pure
[46:48] Speaker 2: high end upside standpoint, It's funny because we talked about
[46:52] Speaker 2: like take away the biggest plays, like Bjon Robinson can
[46:54] Speaker 2: have an eighty or touchdown any moment, but that's not
[46:57] Speaker 2: really what Drake London does to starting to do a
[47:00] Speaker 2: little bit more of that. But I just think that
[47:02] Speaker 2: maybe the easiest way to sum it up is like
[47:05] Speaker 2: I've been leaning more toward Jamior Gibbs compared to Bejean Robinson.
[47:08] Speaker 2: Like maybe I pumped the brakes a little bit on
[47:11] Speaker 2: Kyle Pitt's following things up, which is probably silly because
[47:14] Speaker 2: of how Cleveland used their tight ends in the past.
[47:17] Speaker 2: But I'll just say like they were still a below
[47:20] Speaker 2: average A DOT team down the stretch with Sugar Sanders
[47:23] Speaker 2: taken over, I think there are enough question marks worth
[47:26] Speaker 2: maybe this is just a slower run heavy offense where
[47:30] Speaker 2: you love the market shares, but the touchdowns the big
[47:32] Speaker 2: yardage isn't always their week to week.
[47:34] Speaker 5: Yeah, I think even with Drake London that like it's
[47:36] Speaker 5: He's one of those cases for me where it's not
[47:39] Speaker 5: so much that you change his ranking within the position,
[47:42] Speaker 5: but you change where you draft him versus the running backs,
[47:45] Speaker 5: right where like I'd rather have Chase Brown than Drake London,
[47:49] Speaker 5: you know where I'd rather have the upside of that
[47:51] Speaker 5: running back situation than going with Drake London given the
[47:54] Speaker 5: question marks surrounding that offense in general. Right, I think
[47:58] Speaker 5: Drake London's phenomenal. I've been a huge backer Truther. People
[48:02] Speaker 5: have probably been sick of me talking about Drake London,
[48:04] Speaker 5: but I do think that there is that that sort
[48:07] Speaker 5: of like X factor of change within this this team
[48:11] Speaker 5: and this offense that we have to at least consider.
[48:14] Speaker 4: Now.
[48:14] Speaker 5: It could go the other direction, of course, but I
[48:16] Speaker 5: think that the day that you just presented makes sense
[48:18] Speaker 5: that we should be at least a little bit nervous.
[48:21] Speaker 5: Is there a coordinator or play caller and a player
[48:25] Speaker 5: match that you're really excited about.
[48:27] Speaker 4: Like like specific player position with a coordinator.
[48:30] Speaker 2: Yeah, I've mentioned this on in discord, and I think
[48:35] Speaker 2: this will make Kitchen pretty happy. But why do Robinson
[48:39] Speaker 2: with Brian Dabole. Robinson had kind of by necessity last year,
[48:45] Speaker 2: but he underwent a pretty legitimate role change. Yeah, and
[48:48] Speaker 2: I don't know that it's fully being thought of as that. Like, yes,
[48:53] Speaker 2: I'll be the first one to say, you know, you
[48:56] Speaker 2: got to look at this player with that alpha healthy,
[49:01] Speaker 2: But I don't know how you just sort of put
[49:03] Speaker 2: the toothpaste back in the tube. With Windale, he was
[49:07] Speaker 2: a sub six point two yard a dot guy. It
[49:10] Speaker 2: actually was a career low in twenty twenty four at
[49:14] Speaker 2: four point seven yards. That balloon to eight and a
[49:17] Speaker 2: half last year. We had a step up again without
[49:20] Speaker 2: my leak neighbors, but he answered the call. He had
[49:22] Speaker 2: one hundred and forty targets identical twenty twenty four to
[49:25] Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. He had one fewer catch in twenty
[49:28] Speaker 2: twenty five than twenty twenty four, but he cleared one
[49:32] Speaker 2: thousand yards last year was three hundred and fifteen more
[49:35] Speaker 2: than a twenty twenty four.
[49:36] Speaker 3: In this new role.
[49:37] Speaker 2: He wasn't a touchdown dependent guy. Had four touchdowns. He's
[49:39] Speaker 2: probably going to be a huge touchdown scorer, but like,
[49:42] Speaker 2: I don't know that he's just and first of all
[49:45] Speaker 2: just being a touchdown score like he's due for a
[49:47] Speaker 2: two year correction and touchdown luck as well, which doesn't
[49:50] Speaker 2: just look at like your yard edge your catches for me,
[49:52] Speaker 2: it actually looks like where you are on the field,
[49:54] Speaker 2: which is nice because it accounts for the fact that
[49:56] Speaker 2: he's not going to be getting a ton of end
[49:58] Speaker 2: zone targets. But Carnel Tate, as you've mentioned, wasn't the
[50:02] Speaker 2: highest target share guy, even accounting for like other Ohio
[50:06] Speaker 2: state receivers, there's no reason that Wandal can't have like
[50:11] Speaker 2: a twenty two percent target share, even if like Tate
[50:15] Speaker 2: is at twenty four percent.
[50:16] Speaker 4: Yeah.
[50:17] Speaker 2: So I think that Robinson is a really interesting piece
[50:21] Speaker 2: who it's not it's not fun really to draft them,
[50:25] Speaker 2: but I've kind of ended up with a lot of
[50:28] Speaker 2: Wandelle so far this season.
[50:30] Speaker 4: Yeah, I like that call.
[50:31] Speaker 5: All right, early best Ball drafts, give me a couple
[50:33] Speaker 5: of players that you are drafting early. I mean, maybe
[50:36] Speaker 5: Wandell is one of them, and then and then why
[50:37] Speaker 5: you're drafting them.
[50:39] Speaker 2: Yeah, so Wandel is one of them, but also Romadunze. Yeah,
[50:44] Speaker 2: he's standing out to me too. I love Colson Loveland.
[50:48] Speaker 2: You know, contractually I have to love Luther Burden.
[50:50] Speaker 4: You do, that is very true. Yes, you would, You
[50:53] Speaker 4: would be let go from the company if you didn't.
[50:55] Speaker 3: Yes, But but I do.
[50:57] Speaker 2: It's just he did a lot of stuff on smaller samples,
[51:00] Speaker 2: and I think that's relevant and you get rid of
[51:03] Speaker 2: djmore here. But Rome Adunda has been like a tragic
[51:07] Speaker 2: underperformer in the touchdown call in the last two years.
[51:10] Speaker 2: He's top four in touchdowns under expectation among receivers, but
[51:15] Speaker 2: when active last year. So going back to like that
[51:17] Speaker 2: bringing a full circle here of looking at like actual
[51:19] Speaker 2: relevant shares, Like if you look at this team when
[51:23] Speaker 2: Rome was active, he was the number one, had a
[51:26] Speaker 2: twenty four percent target share, thirty eight percent aer yard share,
[51:29] Speaker 2: was targeted on thirty six percent of the team's place
[51:32] Speaker 2: from inside the five. Just he's always being like overthrown
[51:38] Speaker 2: or missed in the end zone. I think that has
[51:39] Speaker 2: to change eventually. So I've been getting a lot of Rome.
[51:42] Speaker 2: I've also been a lot of Marvin Harrison Junior. He's
[51:45] Speaker 2: another touchdown regression candidate new coordinator. He cannot be used worse.
[51:50] Speaker 2: Marvin Harrison Junior cannot be used worse than he has been.
[51:53] Speaker 3: And when fully healthy.
[51:54] Speaker 2: Last year, he had a twenty two percent target share,
[51:56] Speaker 2: thirty nine percent air yards share. He was averaging over
[51:58] Speaker 2: one hundred air yards per game. He's going to get
[52:01] Speaker 2: more involved in different ways he has to. But also
[52:05] Speaker 2: there's a lot of underlying good information and data in
[52:09] Speaker 2: his profile that I think people are kind of not
[52:12] Speaker 2: necessarily believing in. And the final one I've been kind
[52:16] Speaker 2: of getting in early on is Tyler Warren. He was
[52:19] Speaker 2: by far the biggest underperformer in the expected touchdown call
[52:23] Speaker 2: him for me among tight ends in twenty twenty five.
[52:26] Speaker 2: He gets greative touches. He can, you know, get carries.
[52:29] Speaker 2: Daniel Jones probably going to not run as much, and
[52:33] Speaker 2: I love like I love Alec Pearce speaking to shout
[52:36] Speaker 2: out Jim again, Like we've been kind of og Alec
[52:39] Speaker 2: Peerce guys. But when you look at the sample with
[52:42] Speaker 2: Daniel Jones and Alec Pearce playing over sixty percent of
[52:46] Speaker 2: the snaps, Warren led the team last year with a
[52:49] Speaker 2: twenty two percent target share thirty one percent target share
[52:52] Speaker 2: inside the five, I just think that, like head, he
[52:55] Speaker 2: could very easily lead this team in target share, and
[52:57] Speaker 2: he's being drafted as like he's like a tier below
[53:01] Speaker 2: the other elite tight ends. So I've been getting a
[53:02] Speaker 2: lot of Tyler Warren as well.
[53:04] Speaker 5: I'm in full agreement with all of these players Roma Dunza,
[53:07] Speaker 5: like I'm drafted like I have a doonsa ranked ahead
[53:09] Speaker 5: of Jamo for instance right now, so like that's almost
[53:12] Speaker 5: a full round in equity. Rom's like late fifth, uh,
[53:16] Speaker 5: you know on DraftKings, and JMO's like four or five.
[53:18] Speaker 4: Turn type player.
[53:20] Speaker 5: The Marvin Harrison Junior thing I want to touch on
[53:22] Speaker 5: is really interesting because you know, I talked about him
[53:25] Speaker 5: on the.
[53:25] Speaker 4: Show this week.
[53:26] Speaker 5: Earlier this week about the stuff that I learned from
[53:29] Speaker 5: from Projections, and I talked about Michael Wilson, and I
[53:32] Speaker 5: feel like the community is emotionally bolish with Michael Wilson,
[53:37] Speaker 5: and they're using the coaching change as almost a reason
[53:41] Speaker 5: as to why we should be bullish because it's a
[53:44] Speaker 5: clean slate, and so they're just gonna go by talent, right,
[53:47] Speaker 5: and they're gonna say Michael Wilson greater than Marvin Harrison Junior,
[53:52] Speaker 5: which I think is only happening because we had such
[53:55] Speaker 5: absurd expectations for Marvin Harrison Junior, because realistically, They're peripheral
[54:00] Speaker 5: roles were almost identical last year. But if we're being honest,
[54:04] Speaker 5: those peripherals for Michael Wilson happened when Marvin Harrison Junior
[54:08] Speaker 5: was out right. When he's healthy, their peripherals aren't even close.
[54:12] Speaker 5: I mean, Marvin Harrison Junior looks way better than Michael
[54:15] Speaker 5: Wilson does. So I actually am looking at the coaching
[54:18] Speaker 5: change as a positive thing because we saw the talent
[54:22] Speaker 5: profiles sitting there for Marvin Harrison Junior coming out, and
[54:26] Speaker 5: maybe he needs a change to be able to be
[54:29] Speaker 5: unlocked in some way.
[54:31] Speaker 4: The different Like last year, I was fading Marvin Harrison Junior.
[54:33] Speaker 4: I didn't.
[54:34] Speaker 5: I think I had like two or three percent in
[54:36] Speaker 5: best Ball. But he was also a late third round pick.
[54:39] Speaker 5: Right now he goes like late sixth into the seventh sometimes,
[54:43] Speaker 5: and that to me is is a chef's kiss place
[54:47] Speaker 5: to get a highly touted prospect entering year three with
[54:51] Speaker 5: so many changes around him.
[54:52] Speaker 4: So I'm with you on each of those players. Let's
[54:55] Speaker 4: look at players to avoid players that you're not getting
[54:57] Speaker 4: as much of.
[54:58] Speaker 2: I have been pretty scare it off of Devon Achan,
[55:02] Speaker 2: which is not like groundbreaking, but I just like find
[55:07] Speaker 2: it really hard to click a running back on a
[55:11] Speaker 2: team with offensive expectations like they have. Their average implied
[55:16] Speaker 2: team total is eighteen point one. It is fourth worst
[55:20] Speaker 2: in the league going into the season. It's a two
[55:25] Speaker 2: point three point drop from where they were last year.
[55:28] Speaker 2: They weren't even that great. Like now, Chan huge overperformer
[55:32] Speaker 2: by expected touchdowns because he can break plays and make
[55:35] Speaker 2: stuff happen, and like that's probably what he's gonna have
[55:37] Speaker 2: to do. It's not really the type of profile that
[55:39] Speaker 2: I want to lean on. And I think my biggest
[55:41] Speaker 2: thing is like he could have good shares, but he
[55:44] Speaker 2: could actually finally have some weaker efficiency because who is
[55:48] Speaker 2: taking any attention away from Devon Hien? Like every team
[55:52] Speaker 2: is just gonna be like we stop Hian, we win,
[55:56] Speaker 2: Like that's probably what it's gonna feel.
[55:57] Speaker 5: Like, probably just Malik Willis right, like because he's great
[56:01] Speaker 5: like that, That's that's the fear is his efficiency on
[56:06] Speaker 5: the ground. If they're running like RPO, they're doing a
[56:09] Speaker 5: lot of stuff like cause I mean I think they're
[56:11] Speaker 5: like I said in the podcast, I think they're me
[56:12] Speaker 5: extremely extremely run heavy. Even if they're bad. Even when
[56:16] Speaker 5: they're bad, we should say like they're probably still.
[56:18] Speaker 4: Gonna be extremely run heavy.
[56:20] Speaker 5: A chan you bring him up, though, is a good
[56:23] Speaker 5: call out because I've gone back and forth, like you
[56:26] Speaker 5: can see the range of outcomes, but I think there
[56:28] Speaker 5: is some fear that like you're kind of banking on
[56:32] Speaker 5: I don't know, eighteen to twenty percent target chair for
[56:34] Speaker 5: him to really be able to hit in a big way.
[56:36] Speaker 5: And there's so many good running backs going around him.
[56:38] Speaker 2: So we talk about my process and everything. It kind
[56:42] Speaker 2: of goes back like the Chip Kelly like score points,
[56:44] Speaker 2: but it's like we need touchdowns, like touchdowns or at
[56:48] Speaker 2: the end of the year or like what separate difference makers. Yeah,
[56:52] Speaker 2: they're like yardage outliers, sure, but like most of the
[56:56] Speaker 2: non top three guys, it's did they score and it's like, well,
[57:00] Speaker 2: where their offense is in position to score, that's a
[57:04] Speaker 2: big part of it. Otherwise you have to break these
[57:07] Speaker 2: long plays, and I know a chance can do it.
[57:10] Speaker 2: But you talk about like a Chase Brown, like his
[57:13] Speaker 2: his workload when like when healthy and when the team
[57:16] Speaker 2: got better, was so good, and his team's gonna score
[57:20] Speaker 2: way more points and he's gonna have way more chances.
[57:23] Speaker 5: I've gotten to the point where, like with the early
[57:25] Speaker 5: round running backs, I'm trying to not overthink it. I
[57:27] Speaker 5: think Chase Brown is a don't overthink it kind of player.
[57:30] Speaker 2: Yeah, it's gonna be one of those Like it's it's
[57:32] Speaker 2: almost like a James Cook where it's like, yeah, well
[57:34] Speaker 2: he doesn't get like it's a different situation, different type
[57:37] Speaker 2: of player. But it's like for me, I've always been
[57:39] Speaker 2: like James Cook. James, it's like his team's gonna score
[57:42] Speaker 2: a lot of points. He's very good. Like that's a
[57:46] Speaker 2: different situation than Devon a Chian has to go out
[57:48] Speaker 2: and make everything happen for himself and like their team.
[57:52] Speaker 2: Their average imply team total this year is twenty four
[57:55] Speaker 2: point four points.
[57:56] Speaker 3: They're gonna score.
[57:57] Speaker 2: Probably an extra touchdown a game compared to my Miami. Yeah,
[58:01] Speaker 2: and even I don't know if Miami is going to
[58:03] Speaker 2: end up averaging almost, you know, or over eighteen points
[58:05] Speaker 2: a game.
[58:05] Speaker 3: We'll see.
[58:07] Speaker 2: I hope they do. I hope it's a fun experiment.
[58:09] Speaker 2: But to me, I'm not really there with Devon a Chen.
[58:14] Speaker 4: Yeah, I dig it, I dig it all right.
[58:15] Speaker 5: Before I let you go, I need one hot take
[58:19] Speaker 5: for the twenty twenty six season.
[58:21] Speaker 2: I was not prepared for this and not a big
[58:22] Speaker 2: hot take kind of guy. Let me say, can I
[58:27] Speaker 2: say George Pickens outscore ceed lamb?
[58:30] Speaker 4: That's a hot take?
[58:31] Speaker 3: I don't enough.
[58:32] Speaker 5: Yeah, that's hot, that's very hot. All right, all right, Brandon,
[58:36] Speaker 5: this is great. Let everyone know where they can find you.
[58:39] Speaker 5: You're obviously doing stuff for Late Round Fantasy Football, and
[58:41] Speaker 5: we will have a lot of announcements coming, as I
[58:44] Speaker 5: alluded to on the Late Round show this week, but
[58:46] Speaker 5: talk about what you're working on and where people can
[58:49] Speaker 5: find you.
[58:50] Speaker 2: Yeah, I've been in the trenches that it was kind
[58:52] Speaker 2: of crazy for you to say I've been here almost
[58:54] Speaker 2: six months because I'm like, yeah, I've been pretty head down,
[58:57] Speaker 2: like working on stuff in the background. I'm just now
[59:01] Speaker 2: having my first, uh first show here, and it's like, yeah,
[59:04] Speaker 2: but I've been doing a bunch of stuff that they
[59:07] Speaker 2: kind of needed done to get ready for the you know,
[59:09] Speaker 2: the NFL Draft, but now the season. So I'm working
[59:12] Speaker 2: on a lot of stuff off you know, this week,
[59:14] Speaker 2: I'll have schedule analysis in the newsletter that will already
[59:17] Speaker 2: be out by this point, looking at offensive coordinator deep
[59:20] Speaker 2: dives in probably different ways. I did actually do a
[59:24] Speaker 2: couple months ago. At this point, kind of a high
[59:27] Speaker 2: level look at offensive coordinators. It's a lot of like
[59:29] Speaker 2: regression based stuff that yeah, we'll probably see some changes,
[59:32] Speaker 2: but it could just kind of regress back. But and
[59:34] Speaker 2: then yeah, we got some some fun stuff cooking for
[59:37] Speaker 2: the uh the draft guide and and upcoming season, and
[59:41] Speaker 2: I guess, I guess we'll shout out my socials. I'm
[59:44] Speaker 2: on X at Godula thirteen g d U l A
[59:47] Speaker 2: one three, and I'm on Blue Sky at Godula.
[59:50] Speaker 4: Very rare, though Brandon's not. Brandon's not getting in the
[59:54] Speaker 4: in the twitter streets as much as as I should.
[59:58] Speaker 2: I should just become like tweet stats guy. But even
[1:00:02] Speaker 2: then people will be like, you're stupid for saying this.
[1:00:04] Speaker 2: I'm like, I'm just trying to share information, guys. Not
[1:00:07] Speaker 2: worth it, Yeah, it's not worth it.
[1:00:09] Speaker 4: In the end, I feel that. I definitely feel that.
[1:00:11] Speaker 4: But yeah, Brandon, thank you. I appreciate the time.
[1:00:14] Speaker 5: We obviously talk constantly throughout the day, so this is
[1:00:16] Speaker 5: just another avenue in which to do that.
[1:00:18] Speaker 4: But also while you know, learning some takes and learning
[1:00:21] Speaker 4: more about the game. But for anyone not following me,
[1:00:24] Speaker 4: late round QB on Twitter. Make sure you're checking out
[1:00:28] Speaker 4: Lateround dot com. Make sure you are subscribed to that
[1:00:31] Speaker 4: newsletter because, like Brandon said, there's articles and newsletters coming
[1:00:35] Speaker 4: out all the time from there. Otherwise, everyone enjoy your
[1:00:38] Speaker 4: weekend and thanks for tuning in.

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