# 1114: Regression Candidates

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 4 Aug 2026, 20 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/c3b5ebba-d1ad-4cec-a0fd-b49b01128d20/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

Regression to the mean is one of the most important concepts in fantasy football, and it's everywhere. On Episode 1114, JJ digs into some players and teams who are likely to see their performances swing in 2026, highlighting where last season's results are likely to change. Make sure to check out LateRound.com to order the 2026 Draft Guide. And while you're there, become a member! The new Members Hub is the place for rankings and tiers, data dumps, and more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zach
[0:06] Speaker 1: j J zacher Reef. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar
[0:14] Speaker 1: Esen in this episode eleven fourteen of the Late Round
[0:16] Speaker 1: Fantasy Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. People tend to
[0:21] Speaker 1: think of regression to the mean in a negative way,
[0:23] Speaker 1: that if someone regresses that someone got worse, they did
[0:26] Speaker 1: something great and then that greatness turned into goodness or mediocrity.
[0:30] Speaker 1: But regression can work in the opposite direction too. Regression
[0:34] Speaker 1: to the mean is the tendency for unusually extreme performances,
[0:37] Speaker 1: whether they're really good or really bad, to move closer
[0:40] Speaker 1: to what's typical over time. If someone does something completely
[0:44] Speaker 1: out of this world, chances are he won't be able
[0:46] Speaker 1: to repeat that performance. On the flip side, if someone
[0:49] Speaker 1: gets all the opportunity in the world and just doesn't
[0:52] Speaker 1: come through, it's easy to assume that he's just bad
[0:55] Speaker 1: at football. But what if the evidence suggests otherwise. What
[0:58] Speaker 1: if he was simply on the wrang side of variants.
[1:02] Speaker 1: I say it all the time. I analyze fantasy football
[1:04] Speaker 1: through numbers because fantasy football is a game about numbers,
[1:08] Speaker 1: and regression is one of the biggest aspects of that,
[1:11] Speaker 1: extreme outcomes are often a mix of skill and randomness,
[1:15] Speaker 1: and while skill tends to stick around, randomness usually doesn't.
[1:18] Speaker 1: That's why regression is so important to understand. I'd argue
[1:22] Speaker 1: it's the most important concept in fantasy football. On today's episode,
[1:26] Speaker 1: we're going to dig into regression to the mean. We'll
[1:28] Speaker 1: look at players. We'll look at teams who are likely
[1:31] Speaker 1: to look different this season, not because they've suddenly become
[1:33] Speaker 1: better or worse, but because some of what happened in
[1:36] Speaker 1: twenty twenty five simply wasn't sustainable. Some players benefited from that,
[1:41] Speaker 1: others got burned by it. Understanding the difference can help
[1:44] Speaker 1: you identify some of the best values in your fantasy
[1:46] Speaker 1: drafts this year. Now, before get into all of that,
[1:49] Speaker 1: I did want to send another reminder to check out
[1:51] Speaker 1: the Late Round Draft Guide. There's over two hundred and
[1:53] Speaker 1: seventy pages of content that includes game theory, strategy, ways
[1:57] Speaker 1: of spot, breakouts and busts, players to target, players don't void,
[2:00] Speaker 1: and more. You get cheat sheets in the guide, which
[2:03] Speaker 1: includes a cheat sheet of our new market score metric.
[2:06] Speaker 1: It's all updated weekly directly to your email inbox. Check
[2:11] Speaker 1: it out. Learn more at lateround dot Com. I think
[2:16] Speaker 1: the easiest place to start with this episode is with
[2:18] Speaker 1: the Rams now obviously a team led by Sean McVay,
[2:21] Speaker 1: and with the amount of offensive talent that they have,
[2:23] Speaker 1: it's gonna be good offensively, But that was also just
[2:26] Speaker 1: on another level. Last year. Now the Rams had Mike
[2:29] Speaker 1: Lafleur now coaching the Arizona Cardinals as their offensive coordinator
[2:32] Speaker 1: for three years. He got Matthew Stafford for fifteen, sixteen
[2:36] Speaker 1: and seventeen games during that three year stretch. The Rams
[2:40] Speaker 1: during those seasons through for twenty six, twenty two and
[2:45] Speaker 1: forty six touchdowns. Their touchdown rate touchdowns divided by attempts
[2:49] Speaker 1: four point five percent, three point nine percent, and seven
[2:53] Speaker 1: point seven percent. Since twenty eleven, fourteen teams had touchdown
[2:58] Speaker 1: rates of seven percent or higher in one season while
[3:00] Speaker 1: having played another, so the Rams obviously don't qualify for this.
[3:05] Speaker 1: Only one of those teams stayed above the seven percent
[3:08] Speaker 1: mark year over year, but that team, the twenty eleven Packers,
[3:11] Speaker 1: still saw decline and touchdown rate. They went from nine
[3:14] Speaker 1: point two percent, which is absolutely insane. I mean, that's
[3:17] Speaker 1: peak Aaron Rodgers stuff right there, but it went all
[3:20] Speaker 1: the way down to seven point two percent. Those teams
[3:23] Speaker 1: averaged forty two point one passing touchdowns in that high
[3:26] Speaker 1: touchdown rate season. On average, they fell down to twenty
[3:29] Speaker 1: nine point six passing touchdowns the following year. Now, some
[3:33] Speaker 1: of you are gonna say, well, they got DeVante Adams.
[3:35] Speaker 1: He drove this figure up, and yeah, for sure he
[3:38] Speaker 1: helped things out, but we also can't just assume that
[3:41] Speaker 1: something like that's gonna be sustainable year in and year out.
[3:44] Speaker 1: Adams in particular is really interesting because obviously he scored
[3:48] Speaker 1: fourteen times last year. That's a super high number given
[3:52] Speaker 1: the amount of volume that he actually saw, and he
[3:54] Speaker 1: was often just like used as their goal line back. Essentially,
[3:57] Speaker 1: his expected touchdown total was right around that mark. He
[4:01] Speaker 1: didn't actually outperform in the touchdown column last year, and
[4:04] Speaker 1: I would imagine a lot of people are gonna point
[4:06] Speaker 1: that out, that Adams won't regress because he performed around
[4:10] Speaker 1: expectation when it came to touchdowns last year. But my
[4:14] Speaker 1: argument against that is the fact that Adams tied for
[4:16] Speaker 1: the most end zone targets last year of any wide
[4:19] Speaker 1: receiver since twenty eleven, and he had more inside the
[4:22] Speaker 1: five targets inside the ten targets and end zone targets
[4:26] Speaker 1: per game than any other wide receiver in that sample.
[4:31] Speaker 1: His other peripherals were fine, and he converted at a
[4:33] Speaker 1: pretty normal rate. He just had so much volume around
[4:37] Speaker 1: the end zone that alone is just naturally going to
[4:40] Speaker 1: be difficult to repeat. And here's the math behind that.
[4:44] Speaker 1: Adams had one point nine to three end zone targets
[4:47] Speaker 1: per game last year, absolutely absurd. That number basically laps
[4:51] Speaker 1: every other wide receiver since twenty eleven. But if you
[4:54] Speaker 1: look at the wide receivers who had over one point
[4:57] Speaker 1: five end zone targets per game since twenty eleven, when
[5:00] Speaker 1: those guys played eight or more games the following year,
[5:03] Speaker 1: they've historically seen a thirty five percent drop from one
[5:06] Speaker 1: season to the next, and end zone targets per game,
[5:09] Speaker 1: and naturally they are points per game dropped by about two. Now,
[5:12] Speaker 1: this isn't to say that DeVante Adams isn't avoid for me,
[5:15] Speaker 1: though I have toyed with the idea because I am
[5:16] Speaker 1: a little bit below market. The reason it's not so obvious, though,
[5:20] Speaker 1: is because I do think the Rams are still going
[5:22] Speaker 1: to be really good offensively. But do keep in mind
[5:25] Speaker 1: that it would be shocking, legitimately shocking to see Adams
[5:28] Speaker 1: and Matthew Stafford repeat their twenty twenty five performance. So
[5:34] Speaker 1: all of that about the Rams, that's a more obvious
[5:37] Speaker 1: spot for regression this year. If you want to go
[5:39] Speaker 1: a little bit more outside the box, look at Baltimore
[5:42] Speaker 1: and specifically Mark Andrews. There's a very real chance of
[5:45] Speaker 1: Mark Andrews is just cooked. I don't think we know
[5:48] Speaker 1: for sure, but let's keep an open mind. With that
[5:51] Speaker 1: being said, last season he had a two point one
[5:54] Speaker 1: five yards after the catch per reception rate. That's according
[5:57] Speaker 1: to PFF. He's never had a season below three points
[6:01] Speaker 1: in that statistic, and even in twenty twenty four, if
[6:04] Speaker 1: you just want to say, oh, this is just Mark
[6:06] Speaker 1: Andrews getting old, he was at three point five to eight. Now,
[6:10] Speaker 1: the interesting thing is that Andrews had a lower average
[6:12] Speaker 1: up to target last year two. It was the lowest
[6:15] Speaker 1: of his career at eight point zero yards. So all
[6:18] Speaker 1: of that combined to give him just an atrocious one
[6:21] Speaker 1: point two to three yards per route run, the worst
[6:24] Speaker 1: of his career by a huge margin. His other lowest
[6:27] Speaker 1: was one point eight eight, which did come in twenty
[6:29] Speaker 1: twenty four. I would actually anticipate that number improving from
[6:34] Speaker 1: one year to the next. But there's a catch. We've
[6:37] Speaker 1: had thirteen tight ends since twenty eleven have a YAK
[6:40] Speaker 1: per reception below three and one year while hitting fifty
[6:43] Speaker 1: or more targets in that season and the following season.
[6:47] Speaker 1: Twelve of the thirteen players improved on that number year
[6:50] Speaker 1: over year, and eleven of them they escaped the three
[6:53] Speaker 1: point zero and below bucket entirely. On average, They've gone
[6:57] Speaker 1: from two point six yards after the catch per catch
[7:00] Speaker 1: to four point one to three. That's a strong improvement.
[7:04] Speaker 1: The problem is that even though they got better after
[7:07] Speaker 1: the catch, we didn't see a massive improvement in fantasy
[7:10] Speaker 1: production from those players. Now. Albeit it's a smaller sample size,
[7:14] Speaker 1: but one of the guys that sawid decline happen, the
[7:17] Speaker 1: only one who got worse year over year was end
[7:20] Speaker 1: of career Tony Gonzalez from twenty twelve to twenty thirteen.
[7:25] Speaker 1: So my stance here is that Andrews isn't necessarily a
[7:28] Speaker 1: total fade. He's just a sincerely risky bet even with
[7:32] Speaker 1: favorable YAK regression coming. Now, let's keep this theme going
[7:36] Speaker 1: with the Ravens. One area where Andrews could be helped
[7:39] Speaker 1: tremendously is with passing volume. I feel like one of
[7:42] Speaker 1: the most overlooked storylines in fantasy football is how unbelievably
[7:46] Speaker 1: run heavy the Ravens were last year. Just in terms
[7:48] Speaker 1: of raw volume, Baltimore had their second lowest pass rate
[7:52] Speaker 1: over expected of the entire Lamar Jackson era last year,
[7:56] Speaker 1: but because they ran fewer plays and with Lamar Jackson
[7:58] Speaker 1: banged up, they finished the season with just twenty four
[8:01] Speaker 1: point eight pass attempts per game. Since twenty eleven, we've
[8:05] Speaker 1: had seventeen teams with next season data get to fewer
[8:08] Speaker 1: than twenty eight pass attempts per game. Those teams, on average,
[8:12] Speaker 1: saw an uptick of four point four pass attemps per game,
[8:15] Speaker 1: seventy six raw pass attempts to nearly four hundred passing
[8:18] Speaker 1: yards year over year. Just four of those teams stayed
[8:22] Speaker 1: under the twenty eight pass attempts per game mark, and
[8:25] Speaker 1: remember Baltimore was under twenty five pass attempts per game.
[8:29] Speaker 1: This is a key reason that Andrews might be okay,
[8:32] Speaker 1: and it's a bigger reason to be bullish on Zave Flowers.
[8:36] Speaker 1: The dude was an efficiency machine last year. He took
[8:39] Speaker 1: another step forward, and if he's able to see a
[8:42] Speaker 1: little bit more work close to the end zone while
[8:43] Speaker 1: the Ravens take a step forward in passing volume, it
[8:46] Speaker 1: could be a monster year for Flowers. I'm bullish on
[8:52] Speaker 1: the Eagles offense turning things around this year, and someone
[8:54] Speaker 1: who would benefit from that greatly is Saquon Barkley. Barkley
[8:58] Speaker 1: was disappointing last year from a fantasy perspective. He scored
[9:01] Speaker 1: fewer than fifteen PPR points per game. A huge reason
[9:05] Speaker 1: for that lack of production in fantasy, at least the
[9:07] Speaker 1: lack of production given his cost, was what he did
[9:10] Speaker 1: at the goal line. We know that Jalen Hurts is
[9:13] Speaker 1: going to steal touchdowns in that offense, but Barkley still
[9:16] Speaker 1: had fourteen goal line attempts last year. That was a
[9:19] Speaker 1: top fifteen number across the league at running back. Each
[9:23] Speaker 1: one of those running backs who hit at least fourteen
[9:25] Speaker 1: goal line rushes scored at least four times on those attempts.
[9:28] Speaker 1: Sakuon Barkley scored once. Now, obviously Barkley isn't benefiting from
[9:33] Speaker 1: the really short stuff at the goal line, but still,
[9:35] Speaker 1: this is really bad. We just don't have a large
[9:38] Speaker 1: sample of running backs who converted so few goal line
[9:41] Speaker 1: attempts one year, who then went on to see a
[9:43] Speaker 1: bulky number of goal line rushes the following year. It's
[9:46] Speaker 1: not to say that's going to happen to Barkley. It's
[9:48] Speaker 1: just such a rarity because he was so bad at
[9:51] Speaker 1: converting last year. With that being said, outside of twenty
[9:54] Speaker 1: twenty five, Barkley's converted about thirty four percent of his
[9:57] Speaker 1: goal line rushes last year. To repeat, he was at
[9:59] Speaker 1: se seven percent. I would anticipate a nice bounce back
[10:02] Speaker 1: from him, at least at the goal line, allowing him
[10:05] Speaker 1: to get that double digit touchdown mark once again. And
[10:08] Speaker 1: if the Eagles offense does take a step forward versus
[10:11] Speaker 1: last year, that shouldn't even be at the detriment of
[10:14] Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts, especially because Hurts was far below his typical
[10:18] Speaker 1: rushing volume totals last year. But Philly just might score
[10:22] Speaker 1: more in general when talking about regression, of course, general
[10:27] Speaker 1: team environment changes are a big reason we see natural
[10:30] Speaker 1: shifts and statistics from one year to the next. We
[10:33] Speaker 1: should always consider context when we're looking at this stuff,
[10:37] Speaker 1: and that's important when I bring up these next two teams,
[10:40] Speaker 1: the Vikings and the Raiders both struggled last year offensively,
[10:43] Speaker 1: ranking bottom ten and drives ending and scores and drives
[10:47] Speaker 1: ending and touchdowns. They were inefficient on offense. That can
[10:51] Speaker 1: lower the number of plays that a team runs. If
[10:54] Speaker 1: they're not converting, they're not sustaining drives, they're not giving
[10:57] Speaker 1: us more plays for fantasy purposes. But then on top
[11:01] Speaker 1: of that, they ran at a slower pace. Their seconds
[11:04] Speaker 1: per play rates were both bottom ten in the league.
[11:07] Speaker 1: That resulted in the Vikings running fifty six point one
[11:09] Speaker 1: plays per game last year. Vegas was at fifty five
[11:12] Speaker 1: point eight. Now Miami was in there too, but the
[11:15] Speaker 1: other two teams, they're a little bit more interesting given
[11:18] Speaker 1: the fantasy implications, but sure throw Miami in the mix.
[11:21] Speaker 1: Two sixteen teams since twenty eleven had fifty eight or
[11:25] Speaker 1: fewer plays per game run in a season. The following year,
[11:29] Speaker 1: those teams saw an average uptick and plays run per
[11:32] Speaker 1: game of four point eight. That equates to about eighty
[11:35] Speaker 1: more plays run across the season, and many of those
[11:38] Speaker 1: additional plays they converted to passing plays too, So I
[11:42] Speaker 1: think we should see a little bit more passing volume
[11:44] Speaker 1: in those two offenses this year. All of those teams
[11:47] Speaker 1: with very few plays run in one season, every single
[11:51] Speaker 1: one of them saw an uptick and plays run per
[11:53] Speaker 1: game the following year. With so much change in Minnesota,
[11:56] Speaker 1: given the probable starting quarterback, and then the sweeping change
[11:59] Speaker 1: in Vegas, we should expect more plays run for both offenses.
[12:03] Speaker 1: That's great news obviously for the stud players like Justin Jefferson,
[12:06] Speaker 1: Ashing Gent and Brock Bauers. I'm not gonna throw Miami
[12:10] Speaker 1: in the mix there though, because I do think they're
[12:11] Speaker 1: in an incredibly unique situation. There's a lot of interesting
[12:16] Speaker 1: deep ball data with quarterback each year, and it's no
[12:19] Speaker 1: different this year. Drake May was a baller last year
[12:22] Speaker 1: on deep passes, and yes, of course there's ability embedded
[12:25] Speaker 1: in this. Some dudes are just better at converting throws
[12:28] Speaker 1: fifteen or more air yards down the field but make
[12:30] Speaker 1: it pleted over fifty eight percent of his passes that
[12:33] Speaker 1: traveled fifteen or more air yards last season. Among quarterbacks
[12:36] Speaker 1: with thirty or more of those types of passes, that's
[12:38] Speaker 1: only been done eight other times since twenty eleven, and
[12:42] Speaker 1: since twenty eleven, there have been twenty four quarterbacks who
[12:45] Speaker 1: had thirty or more deep and intermediate throws in year
[12:47] Speaker 1: en and in year en plus one, where they had
[12:50] Speaker 1: a fifty three percent completion rate on those throws in
[12:53] Speaker 1: that original year. So Drake May fifty eight percent. He
[12:57] Speaker 1: certainly falls into this group. Of those two twenty four
[13:00] Speaker 1: quarterbacks who had year over year thirty or more deep
[13:02] Speaker 1: ball throws with a fifty three percent completion rate, they
[13:05] Speaker 1: average a dropping completion rate of seven percentage points. Seventy
[13:10] Speaker 1: five percent of those players dip below fifty three percent,
[13:14] Speaker 1: and Drew Brees is a huge reason that that looks
[13:17] Speaker 1: as good as it does, because he appeared six times
[13:20] Speaker 1: on that list. He held at fifty three percent or
[13:22] Speaker 1: greater in three of those seasons. Meanwhile, these quarterbacks saw
[13:26] Speaker 1: a drop of one point two points per game year
[13:29] Speaker 1: over year, largely because they weren't converting on those deep
[13:32] Speaker 1: passes quite as frequently. Now I know the Patriots added
[13:35] Speaker 1: Aj Brown. I do think that Drake May is a
[13:38] Speaker 1: special player. He could easily buck this trend. It's just
[13:41] Speaker 1: something to keep in mind. You can look in the
[13:44] Speaker 1: opposite side of this though, too, because deep ball completion
[13:47] Speaker 1: rate it's a number that regresses. We see a decent
[13:50] Speaker 1: number of quarterbacks with below forty percent completion rates on
[13:54] Speaker 1: deep throws. There have been one hundred and forty five
[13:56] Speaker 1: of them since twenty eleven who were below that forty
[13:59] Speaker 1: percent mark and who had thirty or more deep ball
[14:02] Speaker 1: attempts in one year and the next year. Those quarterbacks
[14:06] Speaker 1: typically saw an uptick and deep ball completion rate of
[14:09] Speaker 1: about five percentage points a year over year, and they
[14:12] Speaker 1: usually increase their fantasy points per game as well by
[14:14] Speaker 1: a full point. That's not a huge shock, though. If
[14:18] Speaker 1: they're completing those passes more frequently, they're gonna score more points.
[14:23] Speaker 1: But this is good news for some relevant quarterbacks this year,
[14:25] Speaker 1: including Baker Mayfield, CJ. Stroud, Jackson, Dart Bow Knicks, and
[14:29] Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is particularly interesting because he used to
[14:34] Speaker 1: have seasons above that forty five completion rate mark all
[14:36] Speaker 1: the time, but over the last two he's been at
[14:39] Speaker 1: thirty two and thirty six percent. That's pretty low. Patrick
[14:43] Speaker 1: Mahomes has not been good at converting deep passes the
[14:46] Speaker 1: last couple of years. It's not a guarantee that he
[14:49] Speaker 1: sees this massive uptick, but I do think that we
[14:52] Speaker 1: should project it to happen just strictly based on regression.
[14:56] Speaker 1: They just need their down the field threats to stay healthy.
[15:00] Speaker 1: A lot of those other quarterbacks had just named they
[15:02] Speaker 1: have additional help coming that should aid them in regressing.
[15:06] Speaker 1: To the mean, Jackson, Smith and Jigba just put together
[15:10] Speaker 1: one of the most impressive wide receiver seasons that we've
[15:13] Speaker 1: ever seen, and typically when things go really well for
[15:15] Speaker 1: a player, it's tough to repeat that production. JSN had
[15:19] Speaker 1: a yards per target rate of eleven last year. We've
[15:22] Speaker 1: had twenty eight wide receivers since twenty eleven who had
[15:25] Speaker 1: between ten point five and eleven point five yards per
[15:27] Speaker 1: target while seeing fifty or more targets in year en
[15:31] Speaker 1: and in year N plus one so one season and
[15:34] Speaker 1: the following season. On average, those players have seen a
[15:38] Speaker 1: dip in yards per target of one point eight. Their
[15:41] Speaker 1: PPR points per game it dropped by nearly one point six.
[15:45] Speaker 1: That's not the only thing that was pretty crazy from
[15:47] Speaker 1: JSN last year. He had a catch rate over expected
[15:49] Speaker 1: of plus eleven percent, and again, historically, players with rates
[15:53] Speaker 1: above ten percent they almost always regrets. Of the forty
[15:57] Speaker 1: five since twenty eleven who are above that mark, the
[16:00] Speaker 1: average drop in actual catch rate was nearly eight percentage points,
[16:04] Speaker 1: and again those guys saw a dip in points per
[16:07] Speaker 1: game of about one point five. The list goes on
[16:10] Speaker 1: and on. For JSN, he was great last year, phenomenal,
[16:14] Speaker 1: but he probably won't be as efficient this year. But
[16:17] Speaker 1: there is one area where things could look better for
[16:19] Speaker 1: him in twenty twenty six, and that's with overall volume.
[16:23] Speaker 1: The Seahawks had a minus six point seven pass rate
[16:26] Speaker 1: over expected last year. Teams who have been between the
[16:29] Speaker 1: minus five percent and the minus eight percent range since
[16:32] Speaker 1: twenty eleven, there's forty eight teams. They've typically seen that
[16:35] Speaker 1: number increase by over three percentage points year over year.
[16:39] Speaker 1: Pass attempts per game that raises by two and a
[16:41] Speaker 1: half in pass rates by about three percentage points. Seattle's
[16:46] Speaker 1: defense should be excellent again this year, but there's no
[16:49] Speaker 1: doubt that the Seattle offense was in a great situation
[16:51] Speaker 1: in general. Last year, they ran the fewest number of
[16:54] Speaker 1: plays in the league while trailing. We usually see some
[16:57] Speaker 1: volatility with defenses year over year, so odds are that
[17:01] Speaker 1: the Seahawks defense it won't be quite as good as
[17:04] Speaker 1: last year, and that could give the Seahawks offense an
[17:07] Speaker 1: uptick and passing volume, which hopefully will combat some of
[17:10] Speaker 1: this JSN regression. The last item today has to do
[17:15] Speaker 1: with the Arizona offense. I think the Cardinals are unbelievably
[17:19] Speaker 1: interesting this year for fantasy football. They have really strong
[17:22] Speaker 1: weapons and such question marks a quarterback. Well. First off,
[17:25] Speaker 1: I think it's important that we're all aware the Cardinals
[17:28] Speaker 1: led the league last year in pass attempts and at
[17:30] Speaker 1: over thirty eight pass temps per game regressions. Likely seventy
[17:34] Speaker 1: five percent of the teams with thirty five or more
[17:36] Speaker 1: pass temps per game over the last five years saw
[17:38] Speaker 1: fewer pass attempts than next year. All those dropbacks also
[17:43] Speaker 1: led to a lot of routes run for their pass catchers.
[17:46] Speaker 1: Trey McBride ran sixty seven more routes than any other
[17:49] Speaker 1: tight end since at least twenty eleven. I said this before,
[17:54] Speaker 1: but if McBride ran the second most routes at tight
[17:56] Speaker 1: end last year, or just tied for first, think of
[17:58] Speaker 1: it that way, his same fantasy points per route run
[18:02] Speaker 1: rate he would have fallen from eighteen point six pper
[18:05] Speaker 1: points per game to fifteen point four, which is still
[18:08] Speaker 1: a great season, but given what he did in the
[18:10] Speaker 1: touchdown column, it doesn't look quite as great. It's a
[18:13] Speaker 1: little bit scary. But then Michael Wilson he ran a
[18:17] Speaker 1: lot of routes last year too. Only Jamar Chase ran
[18:20] Speaker 1: more routes in the regular season at wide receiver than
[18:22] Speaker 1: Michael Wilson did, according to PFF, and it was by
[18:25] Speaker 1: just one route. We usually see wide receivers with six
[18:29] Speaker 1: hundred or more routes in one year. Michael Wilson was
[18:31] Speaker 1: at six hundred and thirty one. We usually see them
[18:34] Speaker 1: fall in routes run per game by about four year
[18:37] Speaker 1: over year. That's something to keep in mind. Now, there
[18:40] Speaker 1: are still reasons to believe Arizona's going to be pass
[18:42] Speaker 1: heavy this year. They have a bad defense, and as
[18:45] Speaker 1: I talked about in the Schedule Analysis episode, their schedule
[18:48] Speaker 1: is actually brutal, which means more negative game scripts and
[18:51] Speaker 1: more passing. But look, the bottom line here, there's just
[18:55] Speaker 1: so much volatility. I'd anticipate a lower pass rate, and
[19:00] Speaker 1: I do think that with a healthy Marvin Harrison Junior,
[19:02] Speaker 1: it could flatten out some of that upside for everyone
[19:05] Speaker 1: in this offense. No, look, there are obviously a ton
[19:09] Speaker 1: of different things that I could have talked about on
[19:10] Speaker 1: today's show because regression is everywhere in this numbers driven game,
[19:14] Speaker 1: but I wanted to call out what I think are
[19:16] Speaker 1: some of the biggest ones, some of the biggest items
[19:18] Speaker 1: when it comes to regression, especially at the team level.
[19:22] Speaker 1: Hopefully it made you think a little bit differently about
[19:23] Speaker 1: some of these teams and some of these players. That's
[19:27] Speaker 1: it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you
[19:28] Speaker 1: for listening. If you yet subscribed to the Late Round
[19:30] Speaker 1: Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are best ritching for
[19:33] Speaker 1: it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and follow
[19:36] Speaker 1: me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB.
[19:40] Speaker 1: Thanks for listening everyone. As a reminder, the Late Round
[19:43] Speaker 1: Fantasy Football YouTube channel we will be live on Wednesday
[19:46] Speaker 1: at noon with the Late Round Fantasy Football Show. We're
[19:50] Speaker 1: also doing a lot of live stream Bestball drafts, so
[19:52] Speaker 1: make sure you subscribe YouTube dot com slash at LATEROUNDFF.
[19:56] Speaker 1: We also have another episode of Becoming a Best Ball
[19:58] Speaker 1: bro dropping this week, and then later in the week
[20:00] Speaker 1: another episode of Late Round Perspectives. It's that time of year.
[20:04] Speaker 1: I'm so excited. I hope you are too. Talk to
[20:07] Speaker 1: you guys soon.

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