# Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Fade Josh Allen?

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 10 Jun 2026, 1 h 19 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/36e62248-ec7b-40c7-b5db-b465000158ed/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

JJ and Rich talk through some callouts for early drafters before diving into average draft position risers and fallers. JJ then brings Legendary Upside's Pat Kerrane onto the show to chat about this year's best ball landscape, drafting elite quarterbacks and tight ends, the running back problem, and much more. ---------- Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and sign up with promo code LATEROUND. Enter a lineup in the $20 million Best Ball contest for $25 and get a bonus ticket for a second entry — two shots at the title. Draft One, Get One, only on DraftKings. The Crown Is Yours. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Help is available for problem gambling. Call (888) 789-7777 or visit ccpg.org (CT). 18+ in most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. Void where prohibited. 1 per customer. Must enter a lineup into the NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. $25 entry fee. Bonus issued as 1 ticket to NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. Ticket reward is site credit valid for use only on NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. Ticket reward is single-use and expires at contest lock on 9/9/26. See terms at https://www.draftkings.com/promotions. Ends 9/9/26 at contest lock. Sponsored by DraftKings. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:01] Speaker 1: JJ, have you had any serious conversations with your kids
[0:05] Speaker 1: of late.
[0:07] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[0:07] Speaker 3: You know, my daughter is getting to the age where
[0:09] Speaker 3: there's you know, some friends stuff she's got to deal with,
[0:13] Speaker 3: as we all did in elementary school, and you know,
[0:15] Speaker 3: sitting down talking to her about that, how about you?
[0:18] Speaker 1: Yeah, last week was one of those situations where I
[0:20] Speaker 1: had to sit my son down and deliver some really
[0:24] Speaker 1: difficult news. They were learning about the solar system in
[0:28] Speaker 1: TK and I had to regretfully inform him that Pluto
[0:33] Speaker 1: is no longer a planet.
[0:35] Speaker 3: I'm JJ, and over the last couple of years, I've
[0:38] Speaker 3: been doing everything I can to be a best ball bro.
[0:40] Speaker 3: And last season things finally fell into place. I got
[0:44] Speaker 3: fortieth in the DraftKings MILLI Contest, taking home twenty thousand dollars.
[0:48] Speaker 3: Maybe I became a best ball bro, but I'm still
[0:51] Speaker 3: looking to learn more about this game and I still
[0:53] Speaker 3: want others to come on this ride with me. So
[0:56] Speaker 3: even if you consider me a best ball bro, this
[0:58] Speaker 3: could be your year. This could be the year that
[1:01] Speaker 3: you officially become a best ball Bro. This episode is
[1:21] Speaker 3: sponsored by DraftKings. We partnered up with DraftKings again this
[1:24] Speaker 3: year for Best Ball and We've got to can't miss
[1:26] Speaker 3: offer on their biggest best ball contest ever, twenty million
[1:29] Speaker 3: dollars in total prizes. It's Draft one, get one, draft
[1:34] Speaker 3: your team once, no weekly lineup management, and your top
[1:36] Speaker 3: scorers start automatically each week all season long. Download the
[1:41] Speaker 3: DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and sign up with promo code
[1:44] Speaker 3: Late Round. Enter a lineup in the twenty million dollars
[1:46] Speaker 3: Best Ball Contest for twenty five dollars and get a
[1:49] Speaker 3: bonus ticket for a second entry two shots at the title.
[1:53] Speaker 3: Draft one get one only on DraftKings.
[1:56] Speaker 2: The crown is yours.
[2:00] Speaker 3: Welcome into another episode of becoming a best ball bro.
[2:04] Speaker 3: I'm jj Zachares and joined as always by Rich Ryan Rich.
[2:08] Speaker 3: The Knicks are down two to one, but how are
[2:09] Speaker 3: you feeling?
[2:10] Speaker 2: Or?
[2:10] Speaker 3: Sorry? Up to one? Sorry, but it feels like it.
[2:13] Speaker 3: It feels as a life Knicks fan. As a lifelong
[2:15] Speaker 3: Knicks fan who experienced a Knicks victory in New York
[2:20] Speaker 3: City last weekend, I look it was it was an
[2:23] Speaker 3: honest mistake.
[2:24] Speaker 1: There vibes were off last night at the stadium. Games
[2:29] Speaker 1: seemed like it was out of control. And this is
[2:31] Speaker 1: one of those where Game four now is if if
[2:34] Speaker 1: you go up two oh and then you lose to
[2:37] Speaker 1: at home, Like the vibes are are all the way
[2:39] Speaker 1: and the dumpster. So we're hanging on tight. We're we're
[2:43] Speaker 1: used to being faced with the worst situations possible as
[2:46] Speaker 1: New York sports fans, the non Yankee New York sports
[2:49] Speaker 1: fans amongst us, So we're prepared for the worst. Unfortunately.
[2:54] Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's it's uh, it would be it
[2:57] Speaker 3: would be crazy, but I mean they kept it close.
[2:59] Speaker 3: It was It wasn't like a blowout last night. You know.
[3:01] Speaker 1: That's a scary thing on both ends, is that the
[3:04] Speaker 1: first two games are close and we edged it out.
[3:06] Speaker 1: Every game has been close, so the neutral is very
[3:09] Speaker 1: much enjoying this final so far.
[3:11] Speaker 3: Yes, but look, this is not a basketball podcast. This
[3:14] Speaker 3: is a football podcast. I'm back for my trip with
[3:17] Speaker 3: the guys over the weekend in New York City. We
[3:20] Speaker 3: went to basically every every bureau. We were all over
[3:24] Speaker 3: the map on that trip. I was just telling Rich
[3:26] Speaker 3: about it before we started recording. But it's good to
[3:29] Speaker 3: be back. It's good to not have to take the subway.
[3:32] Speaker 3: It's good to be able to you know, relax a
[3:35] Speaker 3: little bit, lay out in my suburban home and you know,
[3:39] Speaker 3: not have to deal with the chaos of the millions
[3:42] Speaker 3: and millions of people that are around that city. Shout
[3:45] Speaker 3: out to New York City. Though I had a great time.
[3:47] Speaker 3: Let's talk about Best Ball, Let's talk about fantasy football.
[3:51] Speaker 3: I fortunately had all my SLOs done before my trip.
[3:55] Speaker 3: I had like sixty slows going at the time. Now
[3:58] Speaker 3: I'm back in it doing some slows hopping in some millies.
[4:00] Speaker 3: We're gonna be doing some live streams on the YouTube
[4:03] Speaker 3: channel starting this week and all summer long. But I
[4:07] Speaker 3: do want to talk about some watchouts, you know, like
[4:12] Speaker 3: this intro part. We have a guest on today's show.
[4:14] Speaker 3: If you guys are new to becoming a Best Ball bro,
[4:16] Speaker 3: we do a little bit of an intro. We just
[4:18] Speaker 3: kind of talk about what we're seeing within the Best
[4:20] Speaker 3: Ball landscape at the moment. And I came up with
[4:23] Speaker 3: four things that I want to talk about as like
[4:25] Speaker 3: callouts watchouts of what I'm seeing at the moment. And
[4:29] Speaker 3: I'm curious if others agree or disagree. But the first
[4:32] Speaker 3: one I want to say, I was thinking about this
[4:34] Speaker 3: last night because I have not drafted a ton of
[4:37] Speaker 3: zero RB teams so far this year like a ton,
[4:40] Speaker 3: you know, like at least compared to what we were
[4:42] Speaker 3: doing a couple of years ago. Right as I was
[4:44] Speaker 3: drafting a MILLI team yesterday, I took Jamar Chase one
[4:48] Speaker 3: oh three, and then I'm like, oh, maybe this will
[4:50] Speaker 3: be a zero RB team. And then Derrick Henry just
[4:52] Speaker 3: was there for me in the second round. So I
[4:54] Speaker 3: got Dereck Henry. But one thing I was thinking of
[4:57] Speaker 3: is that when you kind of set and you and
[4:59] Speaker 3: you go towards a zero RB bill, let's say that
[5:02] Speaker 3: you get you know, let's say Drake London falls in
[5:04] Speaker 3: the second after you get Jackson Smith and Jigbu or something,
[5:07] Speaker 3: and then you get Drake London and then Nico Collins
[5:09] Speaker 3: falls in the third, and then you know you're in
[5:11] Speaker 3: that pocket of really good wide receivers in the fourth
[5:13] Speaker 3: and you want to get another wide receiver in that case.
[5:16] Speaker 3: One thing that I think is really important is to
[5:18] Speaker 3: make sure you get like a Lamar Jackson type quarterback.
[5:21] Speaker 3: And the reason I say that is because if you're
[5:23] Speaker 3: going wide receiver heavy, you obviously are gonna need to
[5:26] Speaker 3: get probably seven running backs or so. If you do
[5:29] Speaker 3: not get the running back position, in the first five
[5:31] Speaker 3: rounds or four rounds, you know, you're gonna probably want
[5:33] Speaker 3: to get seven running backs in your team, and you're
[5:36] Speaker 3: going to be looking at that like round eight to
[5:38] Speaker 3: round ten intill eleven range for some of those. But
[5:41] Speaker 3: you know, the Kenny Gainwells of the world, and if
[5:43] Speaker 3: you're doing that, and if you're really pinpoint, you need
[5:46] Speaker 3: the flexibility to not feel forced to go quarterback, because
[5:49] Speaker 3: that is the quarterback green zone in best ball right now,
[5:53] Speaker 3: you know, like, I think that things are gonna look
[5:55] Speaker 3: a lot different in season long, and honestly, the way
[5:58] Speaker 3: this is kind of a tangent, but the way that
[5:59] Speaker 3: people are talking about season, like like fantasy football for
[6:03] Speaker 3: twenty twenty six feels a little bit off right now
[6:06] Speaker 3: because everyone's like, oh, running backs are being drafted so
[6:09] Speaker 3: much earlier this year than last year. But if you
[6:11] Speaker 3: actually look at season long ADP year over year, you know,
[6:15] Speaker 3: even looking back, you know, over the last ten years
[6:17] Speaker 3: and just seeing the trends, it's not that different. Like
[6:20] Speaker 3: it's really not that substantially different. I would argue even
[6:22] Speaker 3: on draftings. I haven't really laid it out, but I
[6:25] Speaker 3: don't think it's like so drastically different that all of
[6:28] Speaker 3: a sudden, you know, everyone is going with early round
[6:31] Speaker 3: running backuppro and early round running back approach. I think
[6:33] Speaker 3: we started to see it a little bit last year
[6:35] Speaker 3: because twenty twenty four was a pretty good year for
[6:38] Speaker 3: that the position in the way that that things kind
[6:40] Speaker 3: of came together, and then people were reacting to it
[6:42] Speaker 3: last year, and then last year the running back position
[6:44] Speaker 3: was also good, and so people are going to continue
[6:46] Speaker 3: doing that. There's a lot of reasons for that. But regardless,
[6:49] Speaker 3: if you're not getting those running backs early, I do
[6:52] Speaker 3: think it's pretty vital to get a quarterback of some
[6:55] Speaker 3: sort early because you're gonna get stuck in that run
[6:58] Speaker 3: of quarterbacks where you're gonna wish you had one because
[7:02] Speaker 3: the position just drives up so fast and you're going
[7:04] Speaker 3: to be looking at running backs in that range.
[7:07] Speaker 1: Yeah, the running backs that you're talking about there with Manungui,
[7:10] Speaker 1: Blake Korum, Kenny Gain, Will Brooks, and Dobbins in that
[7:15] Speaker 1: area are also nine quarterbacks from the eight to nine
[7:18] Speaker 1: turn down. So yeah, if you're planning your stacks, or
[7:23] Speaker 1: if you haven't selected a quarterback already and you're also
[7:26] Speaker 1: trying to balance that zero RB approach, You're gonna have
[7:30] Speaker 1: a hard time fulfilling everything and being satisfied with your roster.
[7:34] Speaker 3: That's why I think it's like that. That's another piece
[7:37] Speaker 3: of zero RB that I think is a little bit
[7:39] Speaker 3: more difficult this year. That's not necessarily being talked about.
[7:42] Speaker 3: It's just like the way the board falls doesn't necessarily
[7:45] Speaker 3: allow you to do that very confidently, just because of
[7:49] Speaker 3: quarterback in particular, Like literally because if the later round quarterbacks,
[7:53] Speaker 3: like we've been talking about for last year and a half,
[7:55] Speaker 3: if they keep getting pushed up, then obviously you know
[7:58] Speaker 3: those players are like it dries up a lot, a
[8:02] Speaker 3: lot faster, and if you are drafting running backs in
[8:05] Speaker 3: that range and that can that can definitely screw you.
[8:06] Speaker 3: I have a second thing I want to bring on.
[8:08] Speaker 3: I have four things here, kind of three, we'll call
[8:10] Speaker 3: it three and a half. But number two. We're seeing
[8:13] Speaker 3: these like ambiguous injuries going on right now. Let's just
[8:16] Speaker 3: use Chris Rodriguez as the example, where he has his
[8:18] Speaker 3: foot issue that's been happening and now there's reports that
[8:22] Speaker 3: he's not going to be practicing or like doing work
[8:25] Speaker 3: on his foot until training camp or they're like expecting
[8:27] Speaker 3: him back training camp timeframe. The effect I've noticed anecdotally
[8:33] Speaker 3: is that I don't think that drafters always look at
[8:38] Speaker 3: that beyond that one player. So like, of course Chris
[8:41] Speaker 3: Rodriguez is ADP is likely dropping as a result of
[8:44] Speaker 3: all of this. But the interesting thing is that, yes,
[8:48] Speaker 3: you'll see maybe a little bit of base shall Tuton,
[8:50] Speaker 3: but like I haven't seen an instant at all where
[8:54] Speaker 3: Leaquinn Allen is seeing a dramatic increase in ADP. Now,
[8:57] Speaker 3: a lot of people sit there and say that la
[8:59] Speaker 3: Quinn Allen is not the same kind of running back
[9:01] Speaker 3: as Chris Rodriguez is, which I would completely agree. They
[9:03] Speaker 3: played two completely different roles on that team. However, However,
[9:08] Speaker 3: it's different in bestball than in season long. I think
[9:11] Speaker 3: this is where one of those differences lies, where in
[9:13] Speaker 3: bestball you do kind of just want, especially draft kings
[9:16] Speaker 3: where it's full PPR. I draft Laquinn Allen because I
[9:19] Speaker 3: think that he can have some usable weeks here and
[9:21] Speaker 3: there as a pass catcher in a full PPR format.
[9:23] Speaker 3: You know, it's the same argument that we had left
[9:26] Speaker 3: like Justice Hill historically, Like you can even make the
[9:28] Speaker 3: argument for Justice Hill this year, but with Laquinn Allen.
[9:32] Speaker 3: If we were playing season long and Chris Rodriguez were
[9:34] Speaker 3: to get hurt, the waiver wires slash recommendation stuff would
[9:38] Speaker 3: be like, I mean, not that basejall Tuot would be
[9:39] Speaker 3: on the waiver wire, but like analysts would be sitting
[9:42] Speaker 3: there saying, hey, Basehall Tuton RB one season. You know,
[9:46] Speaker 3: all the they'd meme it up and whatever, and I'd
[9:48] Speaker 3: be all for it because I'm a Baseheall Tuton guy.
[9:50] Speaker 3: But the thing that we wouldn't really care about that
[9:53] Speaker 3: much is probably la Quinn Allen in that case in
[9:56] Speaker 3: the season long league, because la Quinn Allen would be
[9:59] Speaker 3: playing a very similar role that he would be playing otherwise,
[10:02] Speaker 3: which is that like pass catcher or you know we're
[10:04] Speaker 3: projecting here, but like that pass catcher role, what have you.
[10:07] Speaker 3: There would be, though a slight uptick in his overall
[10:11] Speaker 3: volume in that offense if Chris Rodriguez were to be out,
[10:14] Speaker 3: because they don't really have an RB three to rely
[10:16] Speaker 3: on at this moment, you know, they would maybe bring
[10:19] Speaker 3: someone up from the practice squad, or maybe they'd sign
[10:21] Speaker 3: someone if it was long term, whatever the case may be.
[10:23] Speaker 3: But la Quinn Allen would probably see like a ten
[10:25] Speaker 3: percent uptick, a like ten percentage point uptick in early
[10:30] Speaker 3: down work, let's say, or you know, rush share. And
[10:34] Speaker 3: so if that's the case, we don't care about that
[10:36] Speaker 3: in season long because he goes from someone who's really
[10:38] Speaker 3: a volatile player that we don't know when that's going
[10:40] Speaker 3: to hit, to all of a sudden being maybe a
[10:42] Speaker 3: little bit less volatile but still pretty valuable. Right, But
[10:46] Speaker 3: in best ball that that could give you a little
[10:49] Speaker 3: bit more of an edge because you're not having to
[10:50] Speaker 3: predict that.
[10:51] Speaker 4: Right.
[10:52] Speaker 3: The reason we wouldn't want to go after a Laquinn
[10:53] Speaker 3: Allen that in season long is because we're not going
[10:56] Speaker 3: to predict when that big game happens. But in bestball,
[10:59] Speaker 3: we don't have to worry about that. So my overall
[11:01] Speaker 3: stance here, and like the reason I'm bringing this up
[11:03] Speaker 3: is that if there is an ambiguous injury going on
[11:06] Speaker 3: and there hasn't been that much of like a chain
[11:09] Speaker 3: reaction to that injury with the other players in that
[11:11] Speaker 3: backfield or in that wide receiver room, whatever the case
[11:14] Speaker 3: may be, backfield is a lot easier to make that
[11:16] Speaker 3: tie because you know they're just given work as opposed
[11:19] Speaker 3: to wide receivers, tit ands having to get open and
[11:20] Speaker 3: get a target, et cetera, et cetera. I think that's
[11:23] Speaker 3: an opportunity to get CLV, even if it's not even CLV.
[11:27] Speaker 3: Even it's just value in general that you get because
[11:30] Speaker 3: maybe his ADP doesn't rise or change, but eventually, you know,
[11:35] Speaker 3: if Chris Rodriguez is like confirmed out through August or something,
[11:39] Speaker 3: la Quinn Allen would probably have like a seventeenth round
[11:41] Speaker 3: ADP or something like, he would be higher than a
[11:44] Speaker 3: last round sometimes not even drafted type pick.
[11:47] Speaker 1: Yeah, he hasn't budged at all, whereas Chris Rodriguez has
[11:51] Speaker 1: dropped half around down five spots. And you're right, the
[11:53] Speaker 1: difference with best ball is we get the luxury of
[11:56] Speaker 1: enjoying smoothed out projectable volume over the season as opposed
[12:01] Speaker 1: to hoping this is the week in Quinn Allen, that's action.
[12:06] Speaker 3: Yeah. And then the last the last thing I want
[12:08] Speaker 3: to point out, and this kind of goes hand in hand,
[12:10] Speaker 3: but if there are free agents out there who have
[12:13] Speaker 3: a backbone of being productive and good and like not
[12:17] Speaker 3: you know, not on the tail end of their career
[12:19] Speaker 3: or anything like that. We had Keenan Allen. Last year,
[12:22] Speaker 3: we saw his ADP rise by a few rounds after
[12:26] Speaker 3: he signed with the Chargers, which a lot of people
[12:28] Speaker 3: didn't even think was a good landing spot for him.
[12:30] Speaker 3: You know, like right now we're staring at Stefan Diggs
[12:34] Speaker 3: and he is a firm, firm double digit round pick.
[12:37] Speaker 3: I'm talking like twelve thirteenth round type player on draftings.
[12:42] Speaker 3: And if he signs almost anywhere, it's it's the odds
[12:46] Speaker 3: of him signing for like a semi contender are pretty high,
[12:48] Speaker 3: probably you know, like a Washington or a Kansas City
[12:51] Speaker 3: or something like that. And if that's the case, his
[12:53] Speaker 3: ADP is going to rise by like two rounds at
[12:56] Speaker 3: least more than likely, similar to what we saw with
[12:58] Speaker 3: Keenan Allen, and then analysts talk themselves into that player
[13:01] Speaker 3: more and more because they realized there was a reason
[13:03] Speaker 3: that that team went out and got that player, and
[13:05] Speaker 3: so you can get that that's a pure CLV play
[13:08] Speaker 3: like you can right now with Stephan Diggs. I do
[13:11] Speaker 3: believe firmly, and it's not going to work out one
[13:14] Speaker 3: hundred percent of the time, but I do believe firmly
[13:16] Speaker 3: that Stephan Diggs is someone that people should be targeting
[13:19] Speaker 3: and drafting more frequently than they probably are, just because
[13:23] Speaker 3: we're going to see that uptick. Now, if this were
[13:25] Speaker 3: August and he wasn't on a team or we didn't,
[13:28] Speaker 3: it's not as big of a deal. I think it's
[13:30] Speaker 3: a bigger deal right now in a milli contest where
[13:33] Speaker 3: you know we're drafting in May and June and the
[13:37] Speaker 3: same contest is still opened in August, where people are
[13:39] Speaker 3: going to be drafting, and by the time August hit,
[13:41] Speaker 3: Stephan Diggs could be a ninth round pick.
[13:43] Speaker 1: That's a really good distinction, right This is one of
[13:45] Speaker 1: those short contests that is going to fill quickly. The
[13:48] Speaker 1: difference is is we're looking to target these longer contests
[13:51] Speaker 1: with longer draft windows, because you're right, there isn't a
[13:54] Speaker 1: single player with an FA tag on them in DraftKings
[13:58] Speaker 1: that is going before Stephan Diggs in the twelfth round
[14:01] Speaker 1: and you've got Tyreek Hill dropping half around.
[14:04] Speaker 4: Yeah, there's just value to be had here.
[14:05] Speaker 3: You could even argue Brandon Ayuk right now, which is crazy,
[14:08] Speaker 3: but I I think Ayuk is a little bit different
[14:11] Speaker 3: for obvious reasons. So you know, you don't have to
[14:14] Speaker 3: go him if you don't really like putting that into
[14:15] Speaker 3: your portfolio. I personally don't mind doing that, like I've
[14:18] Speaker 3: been I've been drafting Ayuk because you know, like even
[14:22] Speaker 3: if he's not one hundred percent there for part, I
[14:25] Speaker 3: don't know. I just I think that there's just you're
[14:27] Speaker 3: just playing expected value and probability at that point, like like,
[14:30] Speaker 3: what are the odds that he does not play at
[14:32] Speaker 3: all this year? Maybe you feel that it's like eighty percent.
[14:35] Speaker 3: I think it's more fifty to fifty at worst. You
[14:38] Speaker 3: know that that he isn't playing this year, just because
[14:41] Speaker 3: you know, like he's he's still talented. And I saw
[14:43] Speaker 3: a pretty good take about this with Ayuk and the
[14:46] Speaker 3: forty nine ers, like if there were real problems with
[14:49] Speaker 3: his game, the forty nine ers would have just released him,
[14:53] Speaker 3: you know, they would have like it would be a
[14:55] Speaker 3: done deal at this point, like he wouldn't be, you know,
[14:58] Speaker 3: being being hung on by the four I used to
[15:00] Speaker 3: get some sort of trade value. You know, I don't know,
[15:03] Speaker 3: there's a lot to it. Don't hold me to that take.
[15:05] Speaker 3: I just think that it's an interesting way of sort
[15:07] Speaker 3: of thinking about it and you know, analyzing that situation.
[15:10] Speaker 1: But also this is the distinction that you just made
[15:12] Speaker 1: about the difference between receivers and running backs, where receivers
[15:15] Speaker 1: earn their usage through talent for most of the part,
[15:18] Speaker 1: whereas running backs the coach kind of decides who gets usage.
[15:22] Speaker 4: And we're talking about some talented dudes.
[15:24] Speaker 1: No matter what you think of Diggs, Tyreek and Ayuk,
[15:28] Speaker 1: they're talented guys. So if they land in a spot,
[15:31] Speaker 1: they're not going to be stuck with a coach's decision
[15:34] Speaker 1: as to whether or not they get usage.
[15:35] Speaker 4: They're going to be running routes and likely earning targets.
[15:38] Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean in this bucket, which is why I
[15:40] Speaker 3: said three and a half. We've now learned officially through
[15:44] Speaker 3: this AJ Brown ordeal, but also we saw last year.
[15:47] Speaker 3: I remember with Jordan Addison where we knew something was
[15:50] Speaker 3: going to happen from a suspension standpoint, and yet, like
[15:53] Speaker 3: I remember, I wasn't drafting him until that suspension was
[15:56] Speaker 3: handed out because I knew his ADP would fall, and
[15:58] Speaker 3: it did like it fell by about an after that happened.
[16:01] Speaker 3: AJ Brown, I will say I was not aggressive enough
[16:05] Speaker 3: in getting him before the news to New England because
[16:08] Speaker 3: I thought that where he was being drafted was a
[16:10] Speaker 3: fair enough, reasonable enough ADP based on you know, the
[16:14] Speaker 3: the age curve, the trajectory of his career, like what
[16:16] Speaker 3: happened last year, all while recognizing that he really wasn't
[16:19] Speaker 3: that bad last year. You know, it was probably overstated
[16:22] Speaker 3: of him like being total dust. But I'm like, yeah,
[16:25] Speaker 3: I mean, like there's some good players being drafted around him.
[16:27] Speaker 3: I can understand why his ADP is where it's at,
[16:30] Speaker 3: assuming that everyone knows that he's going to New England. Well, no,
[16:33] Speaker 3: that's this is also probably a segue into into the
[16:35] Speaker 3: ADP stuff because AJ Brown is seeing his his ADP
[16:41] Speaker 3: increase and it has seen that over the last week
[16:43] Speaker 3: or two.
[16:44] Speaker 1: Yeah, so I like to take a snapshot of the
[16:46] Speaker 1: week over week ADP risers and fallers, and AJ Brown
[16:50] Speaker 1: is one of the top seven risers up a half
[16:53] Speaker 1: around now at pick nineteen.
[16:57] Speaker 3: And that's early rounds too, to be fair, And you.
[16:59] Speaker 1: Know, like that's that was the point I was going
[17:00] Speaker 1: to bring up, especially in the faller section. There's a
[17:02] Speaker 1: lot of double digits here, Like some of these value
[17:04] Speaker 1: changes are very small right now. Right there hasn't been
[17:09] Speaker 1: massive news, massive injuries. There's not a lot of shifts,
[17:12] Speaker 1: so to see that in the second round, right up
[17:15] Speaker 1: from the third round to the second that is it
[17:17] Speaker 1: is it's hard to overstate how large of a move
[17:19] Speaker 1: that does.
[17:20] Speaker 3: I think part of the AJ Brown stuff too, is
[17:22] Speaker 3: obviously Rashie Rice Molik neighbors, Josh Jacobs like players that
[17:27] Speaker 3: have had these like off the field type stuff going on,
[17:31] Speaker 3: slash injury stuff going on, and so naturally it's like, oh,
[17:34] Speaker 3: this is a J Brown's actually more stable piece than
[17:36] Speaker 3: those players are, so therefore I'll draft him. I just
[17:39] Speaker 3: can't get behind drafting him over Drake London, which I've
[17:42] Speaker 3: seen multiple times. Like I'm just I'm not quite there.
[17:47] Speaker 3: I'm not even lower than AJ Brown versus like ADP.
[17:50] Speaker 3: It's just I'm not going to be higher on AJ
[17:53] Speaker 3: Brown if if that's what being higher means, you know,
[17:55] Speaker 3: than ADP.
[17:57] Speaker 1: The three receivers that have moved more than AJ Brown
[18:00] Speaker 1: positive direction, they all kind of fell fit the same archetype,
[18:03] Speaker 1: Ady Mitchell, Trey Harris, and Dontavian Wicks. Guys who can
[18:06] Speaker 1: stretch the field, guys who can get downfield, and the
[18:09] Speaker 1: market seems to be latching on of them right now.
[18:11] Speaker 3: JT. Yeah, I've been drafting a ton of Ady Mitchell
[18:14] Speaker 3: all off season. I was never look I wasn't an
[18:17] Speaker 3: ad Mitchell guy when he came out. I think that
[18:20] Speaker 3: he's kind of even exceeded my expectations in a way,
[18:23] Speaker 3: even though it sounds backwards because he was traded and
[18:25] Speaker 3: you know, but he's been very good per route run
[18:29] Speaker 3: and I think there's a very real chance when you
[18:31] Speaker 3: look at what the Jets have at wide receiver in particular,
[18:35] Speaker 3: Garret Wilson can play everywhere, but I think Garat Wilson
[18:39] Speaker 3: realistically could probably thrive most in like a Z role
[18:42] Speaker 3: on that in that offense right or in any offense.
[18:45] Speaker 3: But he can play X like he's he's he's extremely talented.
[18:49] Speaker 3: But ad Ni Mitchell is an X receiver like that
[18:51] Speaker 3: is what he like, that's where he should be playing.
[18:54] Speaker 3: And Omar Cooper is very much more than likely like
[18:57] Speaker 3: slot can probably play perimeter enough. But like if you
[19:00] Speaker 3: look at those three guys, I think that that's kind
[19:02] Speaker 3: of the role that they would be playing, and Adie Mitchell,
[19:05] Speaker 3: if that's the case, would have a role in that offense.
[19:09] Speaker 3: And then there I think there were some reports this
[19:11] Speaker 3: week that that were favorable for Mitchell, that like they
[19:13] Speaker 3: see him as like a featured piece in the offense
[19:16] Speaker 3: or what have you. I think it's just one of
[19:18] Speaker 3: those classic cases of like assuming a player is just
[19:21] Speaker 3: bounced completely from an offense because they drafted an earlier
[19:24] Speaker 3: round wide receiver. But I think Omar Cooper was a
[19:27] Speaker 3: good prospect. I don't think you know, close your ears, Rich,
[19:29] Speaker 3: I don't think he was like a phenomenal prospect, right,
[19:33] Speaker 3: very interesting profile, but more of like the like there
[19:36] Speaker 3: is an out here where like part of Omar Cooper's
[19:40] Speaker 3: game in the NFL is more gadgety than it is
[19:42] Speaker 3: pure traditional wide receiver. Not to say that's what it
[19:45] Speaker 3: all would be, but I think that's why Adie Mitchell's
[19:48] Speaker 3: kind of attractive. Like I've been drafting Adie Mitchell, Trey
[19:51] Speaker 3: Harris being listed on there makes a ton of sense
[19:53] Speaker 3: to me, because you know they're gonna run a lot
[19:55] Speaker 3: of these like they're gonna run a lot less eleven
[19:57] Speaker 3: personnel with Mike McDaniel, and obviously that means a lot
[20:00] Speaker 3: of Maconukeey, in my opinion, is going to see a
[20:02] Speaker 3: higher concentration of targets just because he'll be the lone
[20:05] Speaker 3: wide receiver on the field at times or one of two,
[20:08] Speaker 3: and I think Quentin Johnson should be the number two,
[20:10] Speaker 3: like like in your priority list. But Trey Harris some
[20:13] Speaker 3: positive vibes and buzz, but what if he takes a
[20:17] Speaker 3: step forward. It's not like Quentin Johnson's been undeniable throughout
[20:19] Speaker 3: his career, you know. So Trey Harris is a great
[20:21] Speaker 3: late round pick. Been doing that a lot. Part of
[20:23] Speaker 3: it too, is because I've been just drafting the Chargers
[20:25] Speaker 3: and then Dantavian Wicks. You know, that's that's fine. It's
[20:28] Speaker 3: a little interesting. He's risen a little bit, but it's
[20:31] Speaker 3: mostly I think a little bit of noise just because
[20:34] Speaker 3: he's going so late to begin with.
[20:35] Speaker 1: And of course again people waiting until the official drop
[20:39] Speaker 1: of these.
[20:40] Speaker 3: I mean that's crazy, right, Like it's crazy. It's crazy.
[20:44] Speaker 3: I just didn't think, like because you looked at Dontavian
[20:46] Speaker 3: Wicks before and you're like, no one likes Dontavian Wicks,
[20:50] Speaker 3: why would his ADP change? And then yeah, it's changed
[20:53] Speaker 3: post aj Brown leaving. And I was drafting Wix to
[20:57] Speaker 3: be honest with you before more so like pre draft
[21:01] Speaker 3: and obviously they get Lemon and Stowers and stuff. But
[21:03] Speaker 3: I think Wix is another one of those players, where
[21:05] Speaker 3: not not to the same degree as ad Mitchell, because
[21:08] Speaker 3: I think Lemon is better than Cooper and I think
[21:10] Speaker 3: adi Mitchell is better than Wix. Right, So it's like
[21:13] Speaker 3: a it's not a one to one at all, but
[21:15] Speaker 3: it is a one to one from the standpoint of
[21:17] Speaker 3: there is a new rookie wide receiver stepping in, and
[21:20] Speaker 3: there's a more established, if you will, at least you know,
[21:23] Speaker 3: non rookie that was already there. And let's not assume
[21:27] Speaker 3: that the non rookie is just completely dust.
[21:29] Speaker 1: Three other players up a half round. Two of them
[21:33] Speaker 1: mentioned last week JJ Moving Markets. It's Greg Dulcich, Alvin Kamara,
[21:39] Speaker 1: and Sean Tucker.
[21:40] Speaker 3: Yeah we're not gonna We're not gonna run with that one.
[21:43] Speaker 3: But yeah, look, Dulcich I think, I mean Dulcich also
[21:46] Speaker 3: got some good vibes after our show, not not from
[21:49] Speaker 3: not anything that I said, but like there were there
[21:52] Speaker 3: was the report I think omar Kelly had it, where
[21:54] Speaker 3: so take it with a grain of salt, but omar
[21:56] Speaker 3: Kelly had it and said that he was he looked
[22:00] Speaker 3: like Malik Willis's favorite target at one point and then
[22:03] Speaker 3: you know, Sean Tucker, it could just be a Bucky
[22:06] Speaker 3: Irving related thing too. You know that there's just been
[22:08] Speaker 3: negative vibes around that. And then Alvin Kamara was is
[22:12] Speaker 3: Kamara is kind of interesting because a lot of it
[22:14] Speaker 3: is I guess it's like the people thinking that he's
[22:17] Speaker 3: not going to retire now instead of retiring or something
[22:20] Speaker 3: based on the fact that he's like in shape and
[22:21] Speaker 3: he might be playing for the Saints or whatever the
[22:23] Speaker 3: case may be. But yeah, I mean, like I can
[22:26] Speaker 3: understand that. I still think Kamara is a trade candidate.
[22:28] Speaker 3: I think that there's a possibility that maybe like Jacksonville
[22:32] Speaker 3: goes after him with the uh with the Chris Rodriguez stuff.
[22:35] Speaker 1: I feel like everybody is very bullish on the New
[22:38] Speaker 1: Orleans Saints.
[22:40] Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, well what could go wrong?
[22:41] Speaker 5: Man?
[22:43] Speaker 3: I mean, I'm bullish. I'm excited about I love drafting
[22:46] Speaker 3: Tyler Schuck and Jordan Tyson and you know, I'm not
[22:49] Speaker 3: as into a lave, but I get it. Like, I
[22:51] Speaker 3: think it's a very concentrated target tree and that's part
[22:55] Speaker 3: of the allure for me. I haven't drafted much ETN
[22:57] Speaker 3: I will say that, but the I do think that
[22:59] Speaker 3: it's a constant t rated tree and therefore it's a
[23:03] Speaker 3: fast paced offense, and it's a year two quarterback, and
[23:05] Speaker 3: so I get the allure, and I'm I've definitely fallen
[23:07] Speaker 3: victim of that a little bit.
[23:09] Speaker 4: Thank you for calling him ETN. By the way, I'm
[23:11] Speaker 4: not changing. Nobody's gonna make hard change.
[23:14] Speaker 2: It's too hard.
[23:15] Speaker 3: Honestly. I was having a discussion with my buddies this
[23:18] Speaker 3: weekend and I'm like, yeah, I can't do the Travis
[23:21] Speaker 3: Chan thing on shows because they're just going to confuse everybody,
[23:24] Speaker 3: and I'm just going to be answering questions, you know,
[23:26] Speaker 3: after the show's published. So I just am keeping ETN
[23:29] Speaker 3: for the time being until it's more overall generally accepted.
[23:33] Speaker 1: ADP followers, a pair of Packers running backs, and Chris
[23:37] Speaker 1: Brooks and Marshawn law Lloyd. Everybody ran to the draft
[23:40] Speaker 1: room thinking that Josh Sjacobs was going to be barred
[23:43] Speaker 1: from football because of his off field activities. But like
[23:46] Speaker 1: we've seen previously, Rashie Rice, et cetera, Jordan Addison, these things,
[23:50] Speaker 1: the can tends to get kicked down.
[23:52] Speaker 4: The road with these things JJ. So I think those
[23:54] Speaker 4: overreactions weren't warranted.
[23:55] Speaker 3: The only thing is that he could still get arrested,
[23:58] Speaker 3: Like he could still like go to jail for these
[24:00] Speaker 3: things seemingly. I mean, I don't know exactly. I mean,
[24:02] Speaker 3: I basically I still think it's a volatile situation. But
[24:05] Speaker 3: obviously the regular standard drafter is just saying, you know,
[24:10] Speaker 3: he's not in jail right now, so we don't have
[24:12] Speaker 3: to draft his backups.
[24:13] Speaker 1: And then at receiver, people didn't listen to us last week.
[24:18] Speaker 1: We keep talking about Brandon Ayuk and Kishan Boody. People
[24:21] Speaker 1: are afraid of these guys that, in Booty's case, is
[24:24] Speaker 1: kind of stuck down in the depth chart in New England,
[24:27] Speaker 1: and then the ambiguity around Ayuk has got people freaked out.
[24:31] Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I'm still like cool with drafting either
[24:34] Speaker 3: of these guys. I think there's a even if if
[24:36] Speaker 3: Kashan Boody stays in New England, he can have usable
[24:39] Speaker 3: weeks every once in a while because he's proven to
[24:42] Speaker 3: make big plays in the way that they deploy him, right,
[24:44] Speaker 3: and that like I don't think that he should be
[24:46] Speaker 3: deployed that way, like as a player, but regardless, like
[24:49] Speaker 3: if they if they deploy him as like a down
[24:51] Speaker 3: the field player. He can he can make and generate
[24:54] Speaker 3: big plays. But I still think there's an out here
[24:56] Speaker 3: where like Washington goes after him, and Washington can go
[24:58] Speaker 3: after Ayuk were maybe Kansas City or something. I mean
[25:01] Speaker 3: there's like there's there's places for these guys to go
[25:03] Speaker 3: where their situations would improve. I'm not as bullish on
[25:07] Speaker 3: like a Booty as I would be a Stefan Diggs
[25:09] Speaker 3: seeing his ADP rise, but I think there's a chance
[25:12] Speaker 3: that I Booty gets traded in ninety percent of spots,
[25:15] Speaker 3: he'd probably see his ADP rise.
[25:16] Speaker 1: And then one more relevant fallower Jill Milton was a
[25:19] Speaker 1: full I don't know what's going on there. Excited about
[25:23] Speaker 1: Jill Milton. But Mike Washington, junior out of Vegas, the
[25:26] Speaker 1: rookie running back who his peripherles we were very interesting.
[25:30] Speaker 4: So I was surprised to see him drop.
[25:32] Speaker 1: I don't know, I'm I might just be ignorant of
[25:34] Speaker 1: some news that came out with regards I.
[25:36] Speaker 3: Think it's just the I think Kubiak talking about being
[25:39] Speaker 3: okay with like leaning on genty is what that really
[25:42] Speaker 3: comes down to. I mean, Mike Washington for me was
[25:46] Speaker 3: an if he ish prospect didn't have like the most
[25:49] Speaker 3: amazing production profile wasn't terrible, clearly very very athletic, and
[25:54] Speaker 3: you know that forty time. Without that forty time, I
[25:56] Speaker 3: don't even know if he gets drafted, he's at least
[25:59] Speaker 3: like a late day three guy. So you know, is
[26:02] Speaker 3: his profile amazing?
[26:04] Speaker 2: No?
[26:04] Speaker 3: You know, are we like really overly excited about a
[26:08] Speaker 3: backup in Vegas offense?
[26:10] Speaker 2: The way?
[26:11] Speaker 3: Like, I don't know. I love what Kubiak is gonna
[26:13] Speaker 3: probably do to the offense, and I think he's the
[26:15] Speaker 3: right kind of mind and coach to for what they
[26:19] Speaker 3: have right now personnel wise. I can kind of understand
[26:22] Speaker 3: going after Mike Washington, But if you're gonna go after
[26:24] Speaker 3: like pure handcuffs, I think there's plenty of others that
[26:26] Speaker 3: you can at least get excited about to not be
[26:28] Speaker 3: like so overweight on one random handcuff.
[26:31] Speaker 4: Yeah, for sure, I just I don't know. I'm very
[26:33] Speaker 4: much Kubiak build.
[26:34] Speaker 1: Like he took something called Holani and turned him into
[26:37] Speaker 1: a usable asset in the playoffs.
[26:39] Speaker 4: So I believe in Kubiak.
[26:41] Speaker 3: Kubiak's good. I've been a Koubiak guy for sure, even
[26:44] Speaker 3: when he was in New Orleans, right, But yeah, I mean,
[26:47] Speaker 3: like I think that the offense should be much more improved,
[26:49] Speaker 3: you know, in Vegas. I think gentis a pretty solid
[26:52] Speaker 3: pick at the one two turn. It's just I just
[26:55] Speaker 3: don't know if Mike Washington is like that good. Those
[26:59] Speaker 3: are the risers and followers in ADP right now. Like
[27:02] Speaker 3: I said, I do have a guest. That guest being
[27:06] Speaker 3: mister Pat Karine, who's kicked off this show as the
[27:09] Speaker 3: first guest for the first two seasons that we did.
[27:12] Speaker 3: He's of legendary upside. He co hosts Ship Chasing, He's
[27:16] Speaker 3: had a ton of Best Ball success. We talk about
[27:19] Speaker 3: the changing landscape in Best Ball right now, when to
[27:23] Speaker 3: take the onesie positions quarterback and tight end late round
[27:26] Speaker 3: picks because the late rounds kind of suck and so
[27:28] Speaker 3: much more so. Without further ado, here is my interview
[27:30] Speaker 3: with mister Pat Karine. All right, Pat, first question, as
[27:41] Speaker 3: you look at this Best Ball landscape right now, specifically
[27:44] Speaker 3: over on DraftKings, what's one of the biggest difference that
[27:46] Speaker 3: you're seeing year over year or I mean, you could
[27:49] Speaker 3: be looking at this landscape and thinking that it's the same,
[27:52] Speaker 3: but what are you seeing overall, and if there is
[27:54] Speaker 3: a change year over year.
[27:57] Speaker 5: Well, one thing is, you know, this year we have
[28:01] Speaker 5: a different rookie class than last year, and there's some
[28:05] Speaker 5: strengths and weaknesses, mostly weaknesses compared to last year's rookie class,
[28:10] Speaker 5: and I think that changes things up in some pretty
[28:13] Speaker 5: big ways for this year's landscape and Best Ball rookies,
[28:18] Speaker 5: you know, have been a pretty big part, especially rookie
[28:20] Speaker 5: receivers have been like a pretty big edge in Bestball
[28:25] Speaker 5: leagues over the years, and so you know, I think
[28:28] Speaker 5: you're seeing a couple of things. One the rookie running backs.
[28:31] Speaker 5: There's a couple first rounders that go reasonably high, and
[28:35] Speaker 5: I think both guys are our interesting picks.
[28:38] Speaker 2: I like Jeremi love more at ADP.
[28:41] Speaker 5: But then you get past those guys and it really
[28:44] Speaker 5: dries up and we're talking, you know, a lot, a
[28:48] Speaker 5: lot of Day three type of guys that here in
[28:50] Speaker 5: June are hard to know for sure if we're going
[28:53] Speaker 5: to get anything from this year, and not having interesting
[28:58] Speaker 5: rookie upside swings in you know, let's say, outside the
[29:02] Speaker 5: top six rounds definitely shakes things up a bit. And
[29:07] Speaker 5: then at wide receiver, I think some of the stink
[29:11] Speaker 5: of the rookie class from a dynasty perspective has translated
[29:14] Speaker 5: over to the best ball market, and I actually think
[29:18] Speaker 5: there's some values at rookie wide receiver this year where
[29:21] Speaker 5: they're a little bit cheaper than we've had over the
[29:24] Speaker 5: past couple of years. So those guys, to me are
[29:27] Speaker 5: actually targets. A number of them are pretty clear targets
[29:32] Speaker 5: at at cheaper prices than we've had recently, where rookie
[29:34] Speaker 5: wide receivers have kind of had some inflation compared to
[29:37] Speaker 5: where they used to go, like four or five years ago.
[29:39] Speaker 3: With this rookie class. Because I'll kind of skip ahead
[29:42] Speaker 3: to another question that I wanted to ask you, but
[29:44] Speaker 3: I think it's pretty pertinent and kind of ties into it.
[29:47] Speaker 3: When I'm drafting right now, I'm looking at the late
[29:49] Speaker 3: rounds and I feel awful about almost every player that
[29:53] Speaker 3: is available in the late rounds of these drafts. My
[29:56] Speaker 3: question to you is, do you think that this is
[29:59] Speaker 3: a normal feeling that I feel every year and I've
[30:01] Speaker 3: forgotten and this is not any different than what we
[30:04] Speaker 3: typically see, or do you think that it is a
[30:07] Speaker 3: weaker late round, you know, around eighteen nineteen round twenty
[30:11] Speaker 3: type group than we've historically seen. And again we have
[30:14] Speaker 3: to give this context that we're doing this in June,
[30:16] Speaker 3: where I think probably in July and August we'll have
[30:19] Speaker 3: at least some better idea of some situations and stuff
[30:22] Speaker 3: like that, and you know, players and the roles that
[30:24] Speaker 3: they're going to play, and maybe we feel better about
[30:26] Speaker 3: some more later round darts. Maybe you don't even feel
[30:29] Speaker 3: this way at all, but do you think the rookie
[30:30] Speaker 3: class is playing a huge role in that feeling that
[30:33] Speaker 3: I'm feeling.
[30:34] Speaker 5: One hundred percent of the rookie classes factoring in there.
[30:37] Speaker 5: I mean, last year, at the end of the summer,
[30:40] Speaker 5: like final weeks of drafts, Kyle Manungai started popping, as
[30:45] Speaker 5: you know, a pretty strong pick, and he remained available
[30:50] Speaker 5: in like the eighteenth, nineteen twentieth round on DraftKings. You know,
[30:53] Speaker 5: he was a seventh round pick, so it took a
[30:55] Speaker 5: while for us to view him as as a reasonable click.
[30:59] Speaker 5: But I mean, it's hard for me to even see like.
[31:02] Speaker 2: Who that would be because.
[31:05] Speaker 5: Like k Tron Allen would would probably be a comparable
[31:08] Speaker 5: type of player. Well, Kateron Allen's already getting drafted. You know,
[31:12] Speaker 5: he's not available in those rounds now, so there's just
[31:15] Speaker 5: not as many guys now. We were taking Jarquiz Hunter,
[31:18] Speaker 5: we were taking DJ Giddens, like, there were a bunch
[31:20] Speaker 5: of land Mines too, but it was the rookie class.
[31:23] Speaker 5: The depth of the running back class did make it
[31:25] Speaker 5: easier to kind of dream on these picks and then
[31:28] Speaker 5: also to ultimately find a couple of these guys who mattered,
[31:32] Speaker 5: even if it took a while to kind of realize
[31:33] Speaker 5: that that Manung guy was the best of the bunch
[31:35] Speaker 5: in those final rounds. But yeah, I mean, I think
[31:38] Speaker 5: there's also some NFL personnel shift stuff going on here
[31:43] Speaker 5: a little bit where we are seeing like more two
[31:45] Speaker 5: tight end sets, more teams talking about how I mean
[31:49] Speaker 5: the Jaguars talking about playing more twelve.
[31:52] Speaker 2: It's like, come on, man, you've got.
[31:56] Speaker 3: Yeah, like Nick Borgager's I gotta worry about that.
[31:59] Speaker 2: Yeah, So it's you.
[32:01] Speaker 5: You get down and you're like, what receivers can I
[32:05] Speaker 5: just buy routes on? I think those guys, the depth
[32:08] Speaker 5: of that kind of group of players also probably a
[32:10] Speaker 5: little thinner now than it was a couple of years ago.
[32:13] Speaker 5: And I think part of it is like, yeah, it's
[32:16] Speaker 5: it isn't that fun always to you know, in the
[32:19] Speaker 5: nineteenth round like that. That is not a high hit rate
[32:22] Speaker 5: kind of group. And we probably have memory wiped some
[32:25] Speaker 5: of the disgusting picks we were making over the past
[32:27] Speaker 5: three four years. But yeah, I mean I'm taking more
[32:30] Speaker 5: tight ends in those final rounds. Yeah, And I think
[32:34] Speaker 5: that's one way to kind of especially I am considering
[32:37] Speaker 5: on my streams just having like a rolling banner that
[32:40] Speaker 5: says it's June.
[32:41] Speaker 2: Because.
[32:43] Speaker 5: Like there's there's like some like it used to be
[32:47] Speaker 5: that like Scott Fishbowl kind of kick things off and
[32:49] Speaker 5: of the redraft, like this was Dynasty season, it was
[32:52] Speaker 5: card but we were sending trades.
[32:53] Speaker 2: We're not. We're not really draft.
[32:55] Speaker 3: We could relax them in it.
[32:56] Speaker 5: Yeah, Yeah, And so that has changed. Like we're we're
[33:00] Speaker 5: talking like definitively about the structures of teams in twenty
[33:04] Speaker 5: twenty six for you know, the entire offseason in the
[33:08] Speaker 5: early part of June, and I think things will change.
[33:12] Speaker 5: We're all so much more dialed in than we were
[33:14] Speaker 5: like in twenty nineteen this time of year that it
[33:18] Speaker 5: doesn't it's like hard to remember that how much things
[33:20] Speaker 5: can change and probably will change. So the late rounds
[33:24] Speaker 5: will look different as we get more information, but for now,
[33:28] Speaker 5: taking some of these tight ends, you know, it does
[33:32] Speaker 5: feel like a way where you're not just like completely
[33:35] Speaker 5: punting and taking a zero, and you're like, maybe, like
[33:39] Speaker 5: with Eli Stowers, I probably am buying routes, particularly in
[33:43] Speaker 5: the at the end of the season. His ADP is
[33:44] Speaker 5: around two hundred on DraftKings, right, So it's like you
[33:47] Speaker 5: get late and I'll take that fourth tight end who's
[33:50] Speaker 5: probably going to be running routes at the end of
[33:52] Speaker 5: the season. I'll take a stab on one of the
[33:55] Speaker 5: rams tight you know committee tight end guys. They're going
[33:57] Speaker 5: to play a bunch of tight ends. We know that,
[33:59] Speaker 5: so you know, Michael Mayer probably plays some. You can
[34:03] Speaker 5: get into this. Charlie Kolar started to consider a little
[34:06] Speaker 5: bit like is you know, purely ast kind of a
[34:08] Speaker 5: twentieth round guy. He's a name on my mind of
[34:11] Speaker 5: not hammering him, but Mike is sicky. I've taken a
[34:13] Speaker 5: lot of yeah, because I think he you know, he's
[34:16] Speaker 5: on a good offense.
[34:16] Speaker 2: He'll run routes. It's gonna be part time.
[34:18] Speaker 5: He'll spike for a couple of weeks, but it's the
[34:20] Speaker 5: same type of profile that you would have had probably
[34:22] Speaker 5: a little bit more cheaply with with some of these
[34:24] Speaker 5: wide receivers that are harder to find once she gets
[34:27] Speaker 5: the final rounds and then I am taking though, as
[34:29] Speaker 5: I alluded to earlier, some of these rookie wide receivers.
[34:32] Speaker 5: I still think those guys are under priced and you
[34:35] Speaker 5: can get even in the final rounds. You can get
[34:37] Speaker 5: a Chris Brasel, you can get the Jacoby Lane, Elijah
[34:40] Speaker 5: so Rott, you know, one or both those guys if
[34:44] Speaker 5: you want. You can get zach Ryt Branch. You know,
[34:46] Speaker 5: there's a bunch of those rookie wide receivers that are
[34:48] Speaker 5: still I mean, Jeremy Bernard is still you know, he's
[34:51] Speaker 5: more expensive than that. He's in the one eighties, but
[34:54] Speaker 5: he's pretty cheap for a second round pick, you know.
[34:56] Speaker 2: So there's once you.
[34:58] Speaker 5: Get you know, not the final rounds, but late in
[35:01] Speaker 5: the draft, those rookieide receivers definitely pop two well with
[35:05] Speaker 5: the tight ends.
[35:06] Speaker 3: This is this is kind of I feel like, made
[35:09] Speaker 3: me not go as hard at elite tight end right now.
[35:14] Speaker 3: Is the fact that because the the latter parts of
[35:18] Speaker 3: the draft are I should say more so McBride than Bauers,
[35:21] Speaker 3: to be fair, but like because the latter parts of
[35:24] Speaker 3: the draft are set up the way they're they're set
[35:26] Speaker 3: up where I feel relatively decent about like Terrence Ferguson
[35:30] Speaker 3: having a role this year, like like doing doing something
[35:33] Speaker 3: at some point, right, and like being a tight end
[35:35] Speaker 3: three or four even four right, because if I'm if
[35:38] Speaker 3: I'm waiting a decent or like Pat Fryarmouth or someone
[35:41] Speaker 3: like that, where like.
[35:42] Speaker 2: Yeah, liked Washington, sure sure like the like there.
[35:46] Speaker 3: And it's because of, like you said, the way the
[35:48] Speaker 3: NFL is of all the way it's changed, and you're
[35:51] Speaker 3: you're able to at least capture that position in that way.
[35:54] Speaker 3: But then you're staring at like Brock Bauers, who could
[35:56] Speaker 3: clearly go nuclear this year. Ye you know, you're staring
[35:59] Speaker 3: at Trade McBride coming off the season that he had.
[36:01] Speaker 3: Even Colson Lovelin you can make a very easy pro
[36:04] Speaker 3: argument for. So what's been your approach at tight end?
[36:07] Speaker 3: Has it been like like, Okay, I'm in round two,
[36:11] Speaker 3: I'm gonna just draft Bowers and then obviously adjust you
[36:14] Speaker 3: know as I go, Or is it like, hey, I
[36:17] Speaker 3: know that the way the landscape looks right now, is
[36:19] Speaker 3: that there's a lot of ambiguity in those late rounds
[36:21] Speaker 3: where I'm probably gonna just get tight end. So maybe
[36:23] Speaker 3: I'm gonna lean running back wide receiver instead in round
[36:27] Speaker 3: two and not go after one of these guys and
[36:29] Speaker 3: then maybe get some some some of exposure to those
[36:32] Speaker 3: guys later on in the year. Has that been a
[36:34] Speaker 3: thought process or has it just been like, no, I
[36:36] Speaker 3: think Bowers are gonna smash, I'm gonna draft Rock Bowers. Yeah.
[36:40] Speaker 5: I think this this question kind of goes to, like
[36:43] Speaker 5: with best Ball, you're there's sort of the are you
[36:46] Speaker 5: evaluating like what has worked in the past versus trying
[36:49] Speaker 5: to be forward looking and what will work given a
[36:53] Speaker 5: brand new set of ADPs that apply to this specific
[36:57] Speaker 5: player pool that we're only going to get one show
[37:00] Speaker 5: this offseason. And this is where we have a tool
[37:03] Speaker 5: leg up called the Sidekick that has it's a SEM
[37:06] Speaker 5: driven player recommendation tool, and we're able to evaluate things
[37:09] Speaker 5: like what is available now versus what it is available
[37:11] Speaker 5: later by sending out the NFL season and then also
[37:14] Speaker 5: the contests that you're in. And what we're seeing, honestly
[37:17] Speaker 5: is that like Bowers, the fact that these tight ends
[37:20] Speaker 5: are available later does not mean that you need to
[37:23] Speaker 5: avoid Bowers, and in fact, when you have Bowers, you
[37:27] Speaker 5: do not need to limit yourself to two tight ends.
[37:30] Speaker 5: Like if you get to the final rounds and it's
[37:32] Speaker 5: like there aren't any good players left, but there are
[37:36] Speaker 5: some tight ends who could hit your lineup, you should
[37:39] Speaker 5: probably take those tight ends. And it might be the
[37:42] Speaker 5: case that you have extra roster spots as well, if
[37:45] Speaker 5: you went with a build that's like four or five
[37:48] Speaker 5: total running backs, where you've got some running backs early.
[37:51] Speaker 5: I don't think you necessarily need eleven wide receivers, even
[37:55] Speaker 5: on full PPR in twenty rounds on draft games, like
[37:58] Speaker 5: you can have nine wide receivers. You can have you know, three,
[38:02] Speaker 5: maybe even four tight ends, depending on where your tight
[38:04] Speaker 5: end two came with a Brock Bowers or Trey McBride
[38:08] Speaker 5: or a Calls some love Owner or Tyler Warren or
[38:10] Speaker 5: whatever like you can you can still build in some
[38:12] Speaker 5: depth at that position if the opportunity cost at the
[38:15] Speaker 5: other positions is pretty low and if you have I
[38:18] Speaker 5: think particularly if you have running back covered with kind
[38:21] Speaker 5: of a hyper fragile build where you've got at least
[38:25] Speaker 5: a couple early kind of hammers.
[38:27] Speaker 3: Yeah, have you been have you gone after Bowers more
[38:30] Speaker 3: than McBride so far? Like, has that been?
[38:31] Speaker 2: I preferers? Yeah? Yeah, yeah, I mean.
[38:35] Speaker 5: His quarterback situation I feel better about because we're probably
[38:40] Speaker 5: looking at rookies in both teams in the money weeks
[38:42] Speaker 5: of these tournaments, and I Mendoza is a better prospect
[38:46] Speaker 5: than Beck. And then you have you know, you've got
[38:49] Speaker 5: Clint Kubiak who literally just powered his whole offense through
[38:52] Speaker 5: like hyper concentrated through his one elite pass catcher, and
[38:55] Speaker 5: that very clearly is Brock Bowers.
[38:57] Speaker 2: On this new team.
[38:59] Speaker 1: Uh.
[38:59] Speaker 5: And then you know, in the beginning of the season,
[39:01] Speaker 5: if we do get a veteran, I feel as good,
[39:04] Speaker 5: if not better about, you know, Cousins compared to Brissett,
[39:07] Speaker 5: given this whole you know, hold out sort of thing
[39:10] Speaker 5: that you know, and Brissette got there a lot on
[39:13] Speaker 5: volume last year. They'm not sure he necessarily has with
[39:16] Speaker 5: these the new coaching staff. So and ultimately I think
[39:18] Speaker 5: Mendoza plays pretty early on in the season.
[39:21] Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I would agree there. I feel it feels
[39:23] Speaker 3: like analysts are piling on Trey McBride to a degree, right, now,
[39:26] Speaker 3: but I think there's there's some reason for it, Like
[39:28] Speaker 3: there's there's definitely touchdown regression that will likely come, which
[39:32] Speaker 3: is crazy to say, right because McBride was not that guy,
[39:35] Speaker 3: But it's hilarious, you know, like like his end zones,
[39:38] Speaker 3: like his end zone target number, I think it was
[39:41] Speaker 3: like eighteen or something last year, which is wild at
[39:43] Speaker 3: tight end that just does not happen frequently at all. Like,
[39:47] Speaker 3: I think that's been one of the biggest epiphanies for me.
[39:49] Speaker 3: This is kind of a tangent, but like one of
[39:51] Speaker 3: the biggest epiphanies for me with regression analysis is that
[39:55] Speaker 3: a lot of people look at the expected numbers and
[40:00] Speaker 3: they almost you know, like Matthew Stafford. Last year, Stafford
[40:03] Speaker 3: Stafford throws forty six touchdown passes, but he hadn't expected
[40:06] Speaker 3: touchdown number of like forty two or forty three, depending
[40:09] Speaker 3: on like the formula you're using, which really isn't like
[40:12] Speaker 3: outperforming touchdown expectation by like an obscene amount, Right, But
[40:16] Speaker 3: we shouldn't assume that he can get to that expected
[40:18] Speaker 3: touchdown number year over year.
[40:20] Speaker 2: Right, also will probably regress.
[40:21] Speaker 3: Exactly, So like there's a the problem. The problem with
[40:24] Speaker 3: the expected numbers that we always like use in reference
[40:27] Speaker 3: is that, like, I think that they're often better in
[40:30] Speaker 3: season than they are out of season, because in season,
[40:32] Speaker 3: you're not going to see as many game plan shifts
[40:34] Speaker 3: and you can really spot regression that way, whereas out
[40:37] Speaker 3: of season, like things can change dramatically, like we're seeing
[40:39] Speaker 3: in Arizona right now, where we don't even know Jacoby,
[40:42] Speaker 3: like what the deal is with Jacoby Brissett. We don't
[40:45] Speaker 3: know when he'll be starting, and I think that we
[40:46] Speaker 3: feel confident that towards the end of the year again
[40:49] Speaker 3: the money weeks, he won't be starting for that team.
[40:52] Speaker 3: And they obviously got by last year and fantasy on
[40:55] Speaker 3: a from a volume perspective, and they were the top
[40:58] Speaker 3: team in pass attempts last year, And there's just a
[41:01] Speaker 3: lot of like question marks and ambiguity, whereas like everything
[41:04] Speaker 3: else with brock Bauers is just seemingly pointed up right,
[41:07] Speaker 3: Like it just seems like it's gone in a much
[41:09] Speaker 3: more favorable direction.
[41:11] Speaker 5: I agree with what you just said, and it's one
[41:13] Speaker 5: reason that I like to look. I like players who
[41:15] Speaker 5: are efficient, you know, because you know who who generally
[41:19] Speaker 5: is efficient? Good players, right, right, And I recognize that
[41:22] Speaker 5: if someone is insanely efficient that they'll probably regress. Like
[41:26] Speaker 5: I don't expect Dalton Kinkaid to have like two point
[41:28] Speaker 5: seven yards per out run or whatever if he runs
[41:31] Speaker 5: a lot more routes, which I would like him to do.
[41:33] Speaker 5: If if I'm betting on Kincaid, that probably drops. But
[41:36] Speaker 5: you know, he's got one point seven nine career yards
[41:38] Speaker 5: per out run. He's probably pretty good, you know. So
[41:40] Speaker 5: the efficiency part of it is something I do want
[41:44] Speaker 5: to consider in a positive way as supposed to.
[41:47] Speaker 2: Just betting on that volume.
[41:48] Speaker 5: And I think the like Prissette wasn't bad last year
[41:51] Speaker 5: from an efficiency standpoint, but so much of the production
[41:53] Speaker 5: really was volume driven. In with new coaching staff, I
[41:58] Speaker 5: don't feel confident that we get really high drop back
[42:01] Speaker 5: volume there, and I don't think we'll get really high
[42:04] Speaker 5: drop back volume in Las Vegas, to be clear, I
[42:07] Speaker 5: don't think we'll have probably low drop back volume, but
[42:10] Speaker 5: just the target concentration from Clint Kubiak in a well designed,
[42:15] Speaker 5: you know, type of passing game that's that's looking to
[42:17] Speaker 5: punish defenses for overplaying the run and run the ball
[42:20] Speaker 5: a lot to make them overplay the run and then
[42:22] Speaker 5: play action off of that. I mean, Bowers is a
[42:24] Speaker 5: perfect fit for that, like a play action weapon, Like
[42:27] Speaker 5: that's his whole deal. So and then like Trey Tucker,
[42:30] Speaker 5: they're talking up, who was a pretty good pick early on,
[42:34] Speaker 5: he was very cheap. He's moved up a bit and
[42:36] Speaker 5: they're moving him around the formation and he's kind of
[42:38] Speaker 5: clearly the number one wide receiver there right now, probably
[42:41] Speaker 5: Jack Besh or Deontay Thorton. They're figuring it out as
[42:43] Speaker 5: their wide receiver too. Like we often like talk about, like, hey,
[42:46] Speaker 5: it's actually pretty good when there's tight ends on the
[42:48] Speaker 5: field for the wide receivers because that lowers their target competition.
[42:51] Speaker 5: This is like the rare case where it's the opposite,
[42:54] Speaker 5: where're the tight.
[42:56] Speaker 3: Give Michael mayor please Yeah, I if I'm if I'm
[43:00] Speaker 3: drafting Jalen Naylor like Trey Tucker or something like, I'd
[43:03] Speaker 3: much rather Jack Besh be on the field than Yeah.
[43:07] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[43:07] Speaker 5: So I mean Bowers is actually benefiting from from how
[43:10] Speaker 5: bad the receivers are there as well. So yeah, I mean,
[43:14] Speaker 5: I mean, and he you know, just an elite prospect,
[43:17] Speaker 5: great rookie year struggled through an injury last year, was
[43:19] Speaker 5: still fairly productive, you know, all things considered, and is
[43:24] Speaker 5: set up for the potential for him to go nuclear
[43:28] Speaker 5: is what is what has me on Bowers over McBride,
[43:30] Speaker 5: and ADP has followed that. Now you know you'd be
[43:33] Speaker 5: going against the market if you went McBride.
[43:35] Speaker 3: First, Let's talk about those early rounds though, because the
[43:39] Speaker 3: meta I'd say, so, here's the thing. I've been doing
[43:42] Speaker 3: a lot of like season long analysis for the draft guide,
[43:45] Speaker 3: for the late round draft guide, and I do think
[43:47] Speaker 3: that the especially within our like circle, like the strategy
[43:52] Speaker 3: talk about fantasy football, is very much dominated by best
[43:56] Speaker 3: ball as opposed to the season long and so there's
[43:59] Speaker 3: a lot of top right now about how like things
[44:02] Speaker 3: are so different with the amount of running backs that
[44:03] Speaker 3: people are drafting early and such. But if you look
[44:06] Speaker 3: at season long, ADP, and you look at like how
[44:09] Speaker 3: many running backs have been drafted in round one, you know,
[44:11] Speaker 3: top twelve, top twenty four, top thirty six, top forty eight,
[44:13] Speaker 3: top sixty year over year over the last few years,
[44:17] Speaker 3: there's there's maybe one or two more that we're seeing
[44:21] Speaker 3: this year versus like previous years, which really shouldn't dramatically
[44:25] Speaker 3: change a narrative. You know, like it really shouldn't like
[44:28] Speaker 3: drastically change the way that we're viewing things. But in
[44:31] Speaker 3: Best Ball I do think that it's different from two perspectives,
[44:34] Speaker 3: one being yes, there are maybe some more running backs
[44:36] Speaker 3: being drafted early. But also I think that the talking
[44:39] Speaker 3: heads too, like the people who are giving analysis and
[44:42] Speaker 3: talking about the game, are being more comfortable drafting running
[44:46] Speaker 3: backs with their first couple, first few picks and just
[44:49] Speaker 3: going running back heavy. And we're like back to that,
[44:52] Speaker 3: you know, meta if you will, you know that we
[44:56] Speaker 3: were doing when like during the MFL ten years back
[44:58] Speaker 3: in the day, you know, like this was this was
[45:01] Speaker 3: the way that like, like I remember Mike Beers, who
[45:03] Speaker 3: was very into the Best ball game was was all
[45:06] Speaker 3: about the three running back be done kind of build
[45:11] Speaker 3: that that I think is much more popular today than
[45:13] Speaker 3: it was three or four years ago, you know, And
[45:15] Speaker 3: that's just the way that this is all transpired. So
[45:18] Speaker 3: I guess my question to you is as a result
[45:21] Speaker 3: of that, you know, we often know that we should
[45:23] Speaker 3: be zigging when people are zagging, Is this a year
[45:27] Speaker 3: then that we should be looking to go zero RB
[45:29] Speaker 3: or like maybe even saying like is it a year
[45:32] Speaker 3: that we should have that more frequently than the market
[45:35] Speaker 3: in our portfolio.
[45:36] Speaker 5: Yeah, So I guess on the on the kind of
[45:39] Speaker 5: the concept of like the running backs, because the narrative
[45:42] Speaker 5: is sort of like, uh, you know, full Boomer capitulation.
[45:45] Speaker 5: You know, guys like me aren't doing zero running back.
[45:47] Speaker 5: We're doing you know, hyper fragile more often or you know,
[45:53] Speaker 5: Mike is, I'm doing it a lot more often than
[45:54] Speaker 5: I'm going zero running back this year. And I guess
[45:58] Speaker 5: like what I would kind of push back on that
[46:02] Speaker 5: narrative is that, like, if you look back at you
[46:06] Speaker 5: I wrote an article just looking at the the rookie
[46:10] Speaker 5: wide receiver pricing, and as part of that, I was
[46:12] Speaker 5: looking because a rookie wide receiver has been on all
[46:14] Speaker 5: the winning Best Bomania teams so far, and so I
[46:17] Speaker 5: pulled those teams up and it's like, hey, you know
[46:20] Speaker 5: the wide receiver too. Here was like pick fourteen like
[46:25] Speaker 5: in this you know, in like Liam Murphy's winning Draft.
[46:27] Speaker 5: It's like it was literally pick fourteen that we didn't
[46:31] Speaker 5: see the second wide receiver come off the board. And
[46:35] Speaker 5: this is still like a super different environment than that environment,
[46:41] Speaker 5: like the idea that there is something happening which is
[46:45] Speaker 5: that people like me who have traditionally really liked to
[46:49] Speaker 5: go zero running back aren't going zero running back as
[46:52] Speaker 5: often and are mixing in builds that where we take
[46:55] Speaker 5: more running backs in the first you know, five rounds. Sure,
[46:59] Speaker 5: then we used to, but it doesn't it's not the
[47:02] Speaker 5: same thing as the ADP has shifted to the point yes,
[47:06] Speaker 5: where all these running backs are going super high again.
[47:10] Speaker 5: And I think that's the big thing that that people
[47:13] Speaker 5: are kind of like conflating, where if the prices haven't
[47:19] Speaker 5: shifted that much overall in terms of like where the
[47:23] Speaker 5: wide receivers go. I mean we're seeing Chase jsn Puoka, Jefferson,
[47:29] Speaker 5: Lamb amen Ra always basically going in the first nine
[47:34] Speaker 5: ish picks, right nine to ten picks, they're gone. Maybe
[47:37] Speaker 5: maybe get lucky gets CD at eleven or something. But
[47:39] Speaker 5: at the end around one those six wide receivers are gone.
[47:43] Speaker 5: And so it's not like the whole it's not just
[47:46] Speaker 5: those MFL ten days it was just green.
[47:48] Speaker 2: It's green.
[47:49] Speaker 5: There might be one wide receiver, you're you're into RB
[47:52] Speaker 5: twos by the middle around too, like you're deep in
[47:55] Speaker 5: the RB twos. So that's where you know, I think
[47:59] Speaker 5: actually you look at you have to look at the
[48:03] Speaker 5: rest of this year's player landscape. And it's not just
[48:07] Speaker 5: that this rookie running back class isn't that great and
[48:11] Speaker 5: especially there's no depth to it, right Jeremi I love
[48:15] Speaker 5: awesome prospect. He goes at the two three turn. Jendarian
[48:18] Speaker 5: Price lands an amazing spot, first round pick. He's usually
[48:22] Speaker 5: gone by the end around five. Okay, and we're kind
[48:25] Speaker 5: of done, you know, for there's not a lot of
[48:27] Speaker 5: guys to invest in at rookies. The second year guys
[48:30] Speaker 5: awesome class. Last year, we've got starters and projected starters
[48:35] Speaker 5: coming out of year two.
[48:37] Speaker 2: Where do they go?
[48:39] Speaker 5: You could get base Shoal Tooton in round six maybe,
[48:41] Speaker 5: but that whole tier is pretty much Judkins Henderson.
[48:46] Speaker 2: All those guys are gone by the end of round six.
[48:49] Speaker 2: So there's your upside group of running backs.
[48:52] Speaker 5: How are you going to beat the guys who go
[48:54] Speaker 5: early at running back if that kind of like high
[48:56] Speaker 5: upside tier is basically wiped out. Now there's guys I like,
[48:59] Speaker 5: like like Jonathan Brooks, but he's rocketed up since he's
[49:02] Speaker 5: looked healthier. He's you know, he's going in the nineties.
[49:05] Speaker 5: A lot of the times now. So it's not like
[49:07] Speaker 5: you can sit back in round thirteen and scoop up
[49:10] Speaker 5: Jonathan Brooks. You know, it's like, how do I beat
[49:13] Speaker 5: these these teams that have the early running backs? And
[49:17] Speaker 5: I think in a lot of cases it's by also
[49:19] Speaker 5: having some early running backs. Maybe I've got two or
[49:22] Speaker 5: three guys, maybe I've got four total running backs on
[49:25] Speaker 5: the build, and I'm done that. Mike Beer's hyperfragile. This
[49:29] Speaker 5: is justin Herzig one with a hyperfragile team back in
[49:32] Speaker 5: twenty twenty.
[49:34] Speaker 2: It's a build that has worked.
[49:35] Speaker 5: You know that there's historical backing to it, and I
[49:38] Speaker 5: think it makes a lot of sense for this current landscape.
[49:40] Speaker 5: As we talked about earlier, it's June. We might have
[49:44] Speaker 5: running backs that bubble up as really strong picks. Nicholas
[49:48] Speaker 5: Singleton could look like an awesome pick, you know. Tyjae
[49:50] Speaker 5: Spears could be someone that we're like starting to think
[49:53] Speaker 5: it could push Tony Pollard or something like. I don't know,
[49:56] Speaker 5: there's like a bunch of guys I don't feel confident
[49:58] Speaker 5: in either of those plays.
[49:59] Speaker 3: Yeah, there's there's things that can go down.
[50:02] Speaker 5: Yeah, there's things that can go down, you know, and
[50:05] Speaker 5: so the landscape could be pretty different in August, or
[50:10] Speaker 5: at least mildly different, you know. And I'm mixing in
[50:14] Speaker 5: different builds. I do have some zero running back builds now,
[50:16] Speaker 5: to be clear, I have some heer running back builds.
[50:19] Speaker 5: I have builds where I go running back running back,
[50:21] Speaker 5: and then push it for running back three. I've got
[50:23] Speaker 5: a mix of things that I'm doing. But yeah, one
[50:27] Speaker 5: of the things that I'm doing is like I've got
[50:28] Speaker 5: builds that are four x running backs, like running backs
[50:31] Speaker 5: in a row. Like I've not really done that in
[50:34] Speaker 5: the past. I think that's where something like when we're
[50:38] Speaker 5: evaluating this player landscape using sims and using logic to
[50:42] Speaker 5: an extent of like, yeah, running backs just aren't really
[50:46] Speaker 5: the upside at the position is drying up faster.
[50:49] Speaker 2: Right. That's such such a big core.
[50:52] Speaker 5: Part of what's going on is like who can you
[50:54] Speaker 5: sell yourself up on realistic upside? Not the kind of
[50:58] Speaker 5: guy that you can go, h, I'll cut them if
[51:00] Speaker 5: it doesn't work out, I'll cut them.
[51:02] Speaker 2: I can't cut.
[51:02] Speaker 5: Them right, right, So who is a guy that you
[51:05] Speaker 5: have the confidence that you won on your roster all
[51:07] Speaker 5: year and then has upside especially upside he can achieve
[51:11] Speaker 5: without an injury, you know, like a Bucky Irving, a
[51:15] Speaker 5: Chase Brown like that kind of play.
[51:19] Speaker 2: It's thin.
[51:19] Speaker 3: It's then this year, I think that there's two things
[51:22] Speaker 3: happening here. So it's funny that you bring all this
[51:26] Speaker 3: up because I'm working on the running back section in
[51:28] Speaker 3: the Draft guide right now. And one of the things
[51:30] Speaker 3: that I'm doing that I do every year to a degree.
[51:32] Speaker 3: I'm trying to do it in like different ways and
[51:34] Speaker 3: more precise ways every year. But I'm looking at how
[51:37] Speaker 3: we've drafted running backs within their position, every position within
[51:41] Speaker 3: their position, so like positional rank, like so RB one
[51:43] Speaker 3: to twelve, RB one to twenty four up till forty eight,
[51:46] Speaker 3: And I do that at wide receiver, and I do
[51:48] Speaker 3: it at quarterback through twenty four and tight end through
[51:50] Speaker 3: twenty four. And I'm looking at the R square between
[51:52] Speaker 3: where they were drafted positional rank wise and how many
[51:55] Speaker 3: points per game they actually scored, right, just to see
[51:57] Speaker 3: how predictive and how well we've done things based on
[52:01] Speaker 3: what the market has said, what ADP has said. And
[52:03] Speaker 3: if you look at running back and you look at
[52:05] Speaker 3: RB one to RB forty eight, and you compare that
[52:08] Speaker 3: to wide receiver one through wide receiver forty eight number one.
[52:11] Speaker 3: Since twenty fourteen, running back has actually been more predictive
[52:14] Speaker 3: when you look at guys who have played eight or
[52:16] Speaker 3: more games and points per game. But the really crazy
[52:19] Speaker 3: thing is that since twenty sixteen, so you're cutting off
[52:22] Speaker 3: the first three years in that subset, it's basically just
[52:25] Speaker 3: continue to get more and more predictive. Like we've gotten
[52:29] Speaker 3: better and better at predicting which running backs are. There's been,
[52:32] Speaker 3: you know, some valleys in there, Like twenty twenty three
[52:34] Speaker 3: was a pretty bad year for how we did things
[52:36] Speaker 3: ADP wise, but like last year we were at like
[52:39] Speaker 3: a point four to nine are square the year before
[52:41] Speaker 3: that point four to seven, when the average over this
[52:43] Speaker 3: time period was point three to nine. So we've been
[52:45] Speaker 3: better over the last few years and handful of years
[52:48] Speaker 3: than we were at the start of this sample, right,
[52:50] Speaker 3: And I think two things are happening. I think that,
[52:53] Speaker 3: you know, I do think that people are just generally smarter,
[52:55] Speaker 3: and we're better at pinpointing who's good who is and
[52:58] Speaker 3: there's information everywhere tension to paying more at tension, Like
[53:01] Speaker 3: there's there's reason as to why we would be better
[53:04] Speaker 3: at predicting which running backs are going to be good.
[53:06] Speaker 3: But I also do think this plays a very direct
[53:09] Speaker 3: role in what you referenced earlier, which was the way
[53:12] Speaker 3: the NFL landscape has actually changed, because one of the
[53:15] Speaker 3: things that's gone on with running back recently is not
[53:18] Speaker 3: only is it a more run heavy league in the
[53:20] Speaker 3: NFL right now, like we're seeing just more runs in general,
[53:23] Speaker 3: and running back having a larger like pie of touchdowns
[53:27] Speaker 3: let's say, or whatever the case may be. So like
[53:29] Speaker 3: that's gonna help these earlier round guys who we know
[53:32] Speaker 3: we're gonna get big workloads do well. But while this
[53:35] Speaker 3: is all going on in this twelve personnel and these
[53:37] Speaker 3: heavy personnel packages are happening, running backs are being targeted
[53:41] Speaker 3: at a lower rate, but the elite guys are still
[53:43] Speaker 3: seeing pretty decent target shaars overall. And so I think
[53:46] Speaker 3: what we saw back in twenty sixteen. And by the way,
[53:49] Speaker 3: this is not fully fledged out in the draft guide yet,
[53:52] Speaker 3: but this was like literally the section I was about
[53:54] Speaker 3: to start like writing and like digging into. But this
[53:56] Speaker 3: is very much like fresh on my mind but not
[53:58] Speaker 3: fully out. But what I think is going on is
[54:01] Speaker 3: that when we did zero RB when it was most successful,
[54:04] Speaker 3: which probably peaked in like twenty sixteen ish timeframe. Like
[54:07] Speaker 3: in that like peak peak, right.
[54:09] Speaker 5: Like there was good zero running back beastball results, like
[54:14] Speaker 5: really good results for like twenty twenty one, twenty.
[54:16] Speaker 3: Two to two, and you still had it then. But
[54:19] Speaker 3: what I think is going on is that back then,
[54:22] Speaker 3: even five years ago, we were able to say this
[54:25] Speaker 3: guy at the very least is going to have a
[54:27] Speaker 3: really good receiving role and then it can build up
[54:29] Speaker 3: into something bigger on the ground as well. Those guys
[54:32] Speaker 3: are so difficult to find right now. In my opinion, I.
[54:36] Speaker 5: Agree with that, and that's something I think Gretch's written about,
[54:39] Speaker 5: this Ben Gretch, but this kind of getting that archetype
[54:41] Speaker 5: getting phased out a little bit over time, and so
[54:44] Speaker 5: I think that's there's definitely something to that.
[54:47] Speaker 2: I also think it's something.
[54:49] Speaker 5: Where there's guys Mike Davis when he was the Falcon starter,
[54:54] Speaker 5: was like a fifth round pick, yeah in basketball, right,
[54:57] Speaker 5: Alexander Madison when he was kind of anointed as the
[54:59] Speaker 5: Viking starter but like clearly wasn't good.
[55:03] Speaker 3: Zamir White a couple of years ago.
[55:05] Speaker 5: Zamir White, Yeah, these types of guys we're talking about, uh,
[55:09] Speaker 5: sixth round picks, right, like Trey Sermon, you know, like
[55:14] Speaker 5: I mean, I guess you.
[55:14] Speaker 2: Could say he was an upside pick. I thought he
[55:16] Speaker 2: was so bad that I didn't buy it.
[55:17] Speaker 3: But he's like a seventh rounder, like he was like yeah.
[55:20] Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah.
[55:21] Speaker 3: So.
[55:21] Speaker 5: But you have these kind of guys that are what,
[55:24] Speaker 5: for one reason or another kind of more like volume
[55:26] Speaker 5: plays where you it's like they're the either the prospect
[55:31] Speaker 5: profile or the the you know NFL efficiency sample really
[55:36] Speaker 5: wasn't there. That kind of reminds me of Rashad White
[55:40] Speaker 5: or Aaron Jones or Jordan Mason or you know, these
[55:44] Speaker 5: guys that are now going very cheaply, like around like
[55:48] Speaker 5: one twenty or something like that. Those are your old
[55:52] Speaker 5: sixth round picks. Rashad White signs, you know, a cheap deal,
[55:55] Speaker 5: but he's the nominal starter for the Commander's good offense.
[55:59] Speaker 5: Can project him for vall because he's going to catch passes.
[56:02] Speaker 5: Sixth round pick, easy, easy, easy fade, We're gonna take Like,
[56:07] Speaker 5: give me the guy. Chris Rodriguez I think would have
[56:09] Speaker 5: been more like a seventh round pick, you know a
[56:12] Speaker 5: few years ago, and Bachhall Tuton might be going behind him,
[56:15] Speaker 5: But now it's Bachell Tuton's five to six and you
[56:17] Speaker 5: have to pay up for him, pay up for the upside.
[56:21] Speaker 3: Yeah, and it makes that discussion more difficult for people
[56:23] Speaker 3: like us who might like be into that player because
[56:25] Speaker 3: he's up to that case. And then all of a
[56:26] Speaker 3: sudden you're like, yeah, like I like base Shall Tuton
[56:30] Speaker 3: a lot as a prospect, right and I and but
[56:32] Speaker 3: now you're in this this you have a real decision
[56:35] Speaker 3: to make, whereas be sure as an analyst, you're just like, yeah,
[56:39] Speaker 3: draft him as a as an eighth ninth round pick, easy,
[56:42] Speaker 3: Like just.
[56:42] Speaker 5: Dannt, Why am I taking Kyen Williams. Karen Williams is
[56:46] Speaker 5: a fragile play I can get ba Shall Tuton, who
[56:49] Speaker 5: might outperform Kien Williams in the ninth or tenth round. Like,
[56:54] Speaker 5: give me a receiver and I'll beat you at running
[56:56] Speaker 5: back anyway. But now I'm like, I'm going to go
[56:58] Speaker 5: to war with some of the most fragile, dustiest running
[57:03] Speaker 5: backs I can think of in the one twenties, Like
[57:07] Speaker 5: it's just harder, Like how am I gonna lap? Building
[57:11] Speaker 5: the super team with the zero running back build was
[57:13] Speaker 5: always like I will I will get the upside profiles
[57:16] Speaker 5: that are undervalued. I will get some veteran profiles that
[57:20] Speaker 5: help me score points early in the season until my
[57:23] Speaker 5: other guys come online. I'll get rookie profiles. People don't
[57:26] Speaker 5: realize have a much better chance of earning work over
[57:29] Speaker 5: the course of the year than they're being given credit for.
[57:32] Speaker 2: I don't have. I got the dusty guys.
[57:34] Speaker 5: I have cheaper dusty guys than I used to, just
[57:38] Speaker 5: pure volume plays, but I don't have the upside at
[57:42] Speaker 5: a very cheap cost to where I go. Yeah, what
[57:46] Speaker 5: why on earth am I am I taking this?
[57:48] Speaker 2: Like?
[57:48] Speaker 5: You know, Chase Brown's fine, But why am I gonna
[57:51] Speaker 5: spend a second round pick when I can get you know,
[57:53] Speaker 5: eighty percent of his production by the end of the
[57:55] Speaker 5: season in the tenth round. But I don't know who
[57:58] Speaker 5: that is, know, And that that's what makes it harder
[58:01] Speaker 5: to avoid those early running backs. Now, I don't like
[58:03] Speaker 5: all the early running backs like the same.
[58:06] Speaker 3: But are there are there any that you're that you
[58:08] Speaker 3: are fading a little bit?
[58:09] Speaker 5: There's a couple that I'm trying to be like a
[58:11] Speaker 5: little bit less heavy on James Cook. I'm not taking
[58:15] Speaker 5: as much On because I want to be overweight on
[58:17] Speaker 5: Ashton Genty. I actually like Sakuon Barkley a good amount this.
[58:21] Speaker 5: I like him more than Cook, and so I'm taking
[58:26] Speaker 5: generally like I'm getting two picks there. So I have
[58:28] Speaker 5: like good amount of Cook Barkley. So it's not like
[58:30] Speaker 5: I'm fully fading Cook, but he's someone I'm not as
[58:33] Speaker 5: excited about. I'm not as excited about Chase Brown, Derrick,
[58:38] Speaker 5: Henry Kyrien Williams. Like there are these profiles that I
[58:43] Speaker 5: do fundamentally think are kind of fragile, and I don't
[58:45] Speaker 5: think the players are that good. So I'm like, yeah,
[58:48] Speaker 5: I don't love clicking this guy. Javonte Williams is a
[58:51] Speaker 5: click I'm making, but I don't love it, you know.
[58:55] Speaker 3: My gosh, that's like I have had a hard time
[58:58] Speaker 3: with both him and because I think David Montgomery is
[59:01] Speaker 3: sort of in the same boat.
[59:02] Speaker 2: Yeah, he's a volume based play, yeah, which which.
[59:05] Speaker 3: Historically we've we've taught people slash, we've done the like
[59:08] Speaker 3: don't But I'm also trying to not overthink it a
[59:11] Speaker 3: little bit with those players in a way, you know,
[59:13] Speaker 3: where I'm just like, this seems so straightforward, but realistically,
[59:17] Speaker 3: I don't. I don't want to be massively overweight on
[59:20] Speaker 3: those two because it's scary neither me neither, but I do.
[59:23] Speaker 5: But I think I also have not like hard fading
[59:27] Speaker 5: them in a way that I would have a few
[59:29] Speaker 5: years ago because it would have been so much easier.
[59:32] Speaker 5: So like, look, if I have Ashton Gentes, Saquon Barkley,
[59:37] Speaker 5: T Higgins or Ze Flowers or Garrett Wilson or whatever,
[59:42] Speaker 5: and at Javonte Williams, I have, I have some Ceedee Lamb,
[59:45] Speaker 5: Saquon Barkley, Javonte Williams, you know, and Tenoral McMillan teams
[59:50] Speaker 5: or whatever. Like that's pretty fun. Actually, Like I've got
[59:53] Speaker 5: and then I get Dak. I might take Jake Ferguson.
[59:57] Speaker 5: I got this Cowboys build, Like I'm kind of a
[1:00:00] Speaker 5: joining some of these Javonte teams. You know, It's it's
[1:00:02] Speaker 5: not as clear cut, I think, as it would have
[1:00:04] Speaker 5: been if you had like what can you get now
[1:00:06] Speaker 5: versus what can you get later?
[1:00:08] Speaker 2: It used to be.
[1:00:09] Speaker 5: I think at running back there was upside available later,
[1:00:12] Speaker 5: and I'm hopeful that maybe we get some of that
[1:00:14] Speaker 5: in August. We have some guys emerge there could be
[1:00:17] Speaker 5: some injuries, there could be some shake ups, There could
[1:00:19] Speaker 5: be like a suspension or something, and we do have
[1:00:21] Speaker 5: guys maybe in round twelve, but we're like, yeah, this
[1:00:24] Speaker 5: dude looks like a potential league winner, and that changes
[1:00:26] Speaker 5: up what I'm doing early. Probably it's more like next
[1:00:29] Speaker 5: year when we have good rookie running backs again and
[1:00:31] Speaker 5: we can go back to But I want to build
[1:00:34] Speaker 5: for the environment that I'm in, right, I don't want
[1:00:36] Speaker 5: to just build based on what worked in a different environment.
[1:00:39] Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, look, I think that Montgomery and Williams
[1:00:42] Speaker 3: types were a little bit easier to arbitrage back in
[1:00:45] Speaker 3: the day. Like it was just like not as because
[1:00:47] Speaker 3: not that they would have the player that we'd arbitrage
[1:00:50] Speaker 3: with would have like projectible volume in the same way,
[1:00:52] Speaker 3: but they had outa that volume.
[1:00:54] Speaker 5: Exactly, yeah, exactly, the hit rates lower on the volume,
[1:00:59] Speaker 5: but also people or overestimating that the hit rate that
[1:01:02] Speaker 5: that player will hold the volume.
[1:01:03] Speaker 2: Yeah, and then I've.
[1:01:05] Speaker 5: Got a guy who might earn volume over the course
[1:01:07] Speaker 5: of the year because he's good. But again, as he
[1:01:10] Speaker 5: talked about, like Travon Henderson going at the four or
[1:01:12] Speaker 5: five turn, and I'm not even drafting him is crazy
[1:01:16] Speaker 5: to me. I'm like, What's what's happened to the game?
[1:01:18] Speaker 2: I love? He used to this guy should be a seventh.
[1:01:21] Speaker 5: Round pick, and I should be telling everyone they're crazy
[1:01:23] Speaker 5: for not taking with the four or five turn right,
[1:01:26] Speaker 5: Like it's it's I don't have a lot of Trevion Henderson.
[1:01:29] Speaker 2: I'm a huge Drake May guy. I want to invest
[1:01:31] Speaker 2: in the Patriots.
[1:01:32] Speaker 5: And yet I'm like, I don't know how in a
[1:01:37] Speaker 5: format where like I'm not picking my starters and I'm
[1:01:39] Speaker 5: not just kind of putting him on the bench for
[1:01:40] Speaker 5: a few weeks until he takes the job, Like, and
[1:01:43] Speaker 5: I kind of want my early picks to contribute all
[1:01:46] Speaker 5: year ideally.
[1:01:47] Speaker 3: Yeah, it's not a lot.
[1:01:49] Speaker 5: Yeah, he might hurt my advance rate pretty meaningfully compared
[1:01:52] Speaker 5: to some of these other, you know, guys that are
[1:01:54] Speaker 5: available in the same range, Like Cam Scattabo is another
[1:01:56] Speaker 5: second year guy, and he if he's healthy, he should
[1:01:59] Speaker 5: He's gonna get a ton of work all year. So
[1:02:02] Speaker 5: it's and like he's a good pass catcher, he's good
[1:02:04] Speaker 5: at the goal line, so yeah, I mean, it's just
[1:02:07] Speaker 5: the profiles that used to be kind of systemically undervalued
[1:02:11] Speaker 5: are not being undervalued right now. One other thing I
[1:02:14] Speaker 5: should note about it being June, though, is that the
[1:02:17] Speaker 5: people in these draft rooms are not going to be
[1:02:20] Speaker 5: the exact same people later. They will literally just be
[1:02:22] Speaker 5: different drafters in August that aren't drafting right now, And
[1:02:26] Speaker 5: those people I'm hoping feel differently about Trevon Henderson and
[1:02:29] Speaker 5: the people that are drafting right now, because I would
[1:02:31] Speaker 5: really like some like sixth round, seventh round, Trevion Henders.
[1:02:34] Speaker 3: You recognize the upside like you recognize exactly exist.
[1:02:37] Speaker 5: Yeah, of course, one hundred percent, Yeah, one hundred percent.
[1:02:40] Speaker 5: I just don't want to pay quite as much as
[1:02:42] Speaker 5: I'm paying now. And that would be another thing like
[1:02:44] Speaker 5: I talked about, like you know, round twelve or whatever,
[1:02:48] Speaker 5: round sixteen, some running backs opening up. But even if
[1:02:51] Speaker 5: it was something like at the I know, at the
[1:02:53] Speaker 5: six seventh turn, I can reliably get Base Sholtoton and
[1:02:55] Speaker 5: Trevion Henderson, that would change the way I'm drafting.
[1:02:58] Speaker 3: To yeah, exactly exactly. I feel similarly in a way
[1:03:04] Speaker 3: to what's gone on with quarterback where you know, obviously
[1:03:07] Speaker 3: you have like Josh Allen's kind of like in his
[1:03:10] Speaker 3: own area, and I love you your take on Allen
[1:03:12] Speaker 3: and how frequently you're getting him and all that kind
[1:03:14] Speaker 3: of stuff. But the crazy thing with quarterback is that historically,
[1:03:20] Speaker 3: like if you were to like really dig into like
[1:03:23] Speaker 3: middle round QB type data, like I'm talking like QB
[1:03:26] Speaker 3: six to ten ish, you know, in that range, or
[1:03:28] Speaker 3: like QB four to ten, whatever the case may be,
[1:03:31] Speaker 3: especially like pocket passer guys, like they've been like relatively
[1:03:35] Speaker 3: not great bets. But the difference in what I saw
[1:03:38] Speaker 3: I saw this last year too, happening very frequently, especially
[1:03:41] Speaker 3: on DK, is definitely happening this year. But again it's
[1:03:45] Speaker 3: what can you get later? And with the later round
[1:03:48] Speaker 3: guys continuously being pushed up because of what's probably a
[1:03:52] Speaker 3: scarcity thing in people's eyes, right, Like they're they don't
[1:03:55] Speaker 3: want to fall behind, and they're worried about not getting
[1:03:57] Speaker 3: that player, and then that just slowly, slowly at these guys,
[1:04:01] Speaker 3: ADP is getting higher and higher. But when that happens,
[1:04:04] Speaker 3: it does make the players, the you know, the Burrows
[1:04:09] Speaker 3: of the world, be easier to click because you're only
[1:04:12] Speaker 3: there's only a two round gap between him to the
[1:04:15] Speaker 3: next tier or two of quarterback. And so I guess
[1:04:18] Speaker 3: my question to you is how you're approaching quarterback? Are
[1:04:21] Speaker 3: you fading Josh Allen?
[1:04:22] Speaker 2: You know?
[1:04:22] Speaker 3: Is that typically the way that you approach things? And
[1:04:25] Speaker 3: do you see the same thing that I'm seeing in
[1:04:26] Speaker 3: the way that the quarterback landscape has kind of come together?
[1:04:30] Speaker 5: Yeah, I am fading Josh Allen pretty aggressively. The market
[1:04:34] Speaker 5: seems to be indicating Josh Allen is like twice as
[1:04:37] Speaker 5: good as the next best quarterback. Like there's a huge
[1:04:40] Speaker 5: there's one elite quarterback in the NFL, and it's Josh
[1:04:43] Speaker 5: Allen and everyone else is kind of like expensive versions
[1:04:47] Speaker 5: of you know, the kind of the pocket passer archetype. Yeah,
[1:04:50] Speaker 5: but that's like not true at all. Yeah, like Lamar Jackson,
[1:04:54] Speaker 5: Jaden Daniels, Like Drake May was outscoring Josh Allen in
[1:04:58] Speaker 5: the Fantasy playoffs last year. Yeah, right, And he just
[1:05:01] Speaker 5: got aj Brown and he got Romeo Dobbs, who is
[1:05:03] Speaker 5: also an upgrade, and he has Trevon Anderson going in
[1:05:06] Speaker 5: his second year and it is very explosive last year.
[1:05:08] Speaker 5: Like there's so many ways that this offense could get
[1:05:11] Speaker 5: better and be you know, still very much built around
[1:05:15] Speaker 5: Drake May.
[1:05:16] Speaker 4: I don't.
[1:05:17] Speaker 5: I don't twenty six ADP for Josh Allen and Drake
[1:05:20] Speaker 5: May's going in the middle of sixth round, Like, I
[1:05:22] Speaker 5: just won't have Josh Allen then, even.
[1:05:24] Speaker 3: Like Jalen Hurts, who will go in like the late
[1:05:26] Speaker 3: seventh At.
[1:05:27] Speaker 2: Times one, Hurts is an awesome pick.
[1:05:29] Speaker 3: And I'm like, I'm like, there is a like are
[1:05:31] Speaker 3: the what are the true odds here that Jalen Hurts
[1:05:33] Speaker 3: just straight up out scores Josh Allen this year. It's
[1:05:36] Speaker 3: definitely not the gap that we're seeing right now in
[1:05:39] Speaker 3: ADP from an odds perspective.
[1:05:42] Speaker 5: Yeah, And like this is a game where you have
[1:05:44] Speaker 5: to advance, then you have to advance again and advance again,
[1:05:47] Speaker 5: and then you have to score the most points in
[1:05:48] Speaker 5: week seventeen. And like Hurts because of the the Tousch
[1:05:51] Speaker 5: push has not been banned, Like this is an ADP
[1:05:53] Speaker 5: I would expect if like the Tousch Push had gotten banned.
[1:05:55] Speaker 5: He's barely ahead of dak Now, who I think is
[1:05:57] Speaker 5: also decent enough pick. But Hurts is a crazy good value,
[1:06:02] Speaker 5: Like in a given week, he can he can explode
[1:06:04] Speaker 5: because of his ability to score touchdowns.
[1:06:07] Speaker 2: And like they'll be fine.
[1:06:09] Speaker 5: I know, you know they're losing Brown, but I think
[1:06:11] Speaker 5: they'll they added Mackay Lemon, who I think is a
[1:06:14] Speaker 5: really good value in his own right and a good player,
[1:06:17] Speaker 5: really good prospect. And they have Eli Stowers, like don't
[1:06:21] Speaker 5: They'll be fine. And they don't have Kevin Batulo, they
[1:06:24] Speaker 5: don't have Kevin Patula. They've got Sean Mannion. Who's they
[1:06:26] Speaker 5: you know, Jordanilotta was saying, he's a wizard. He said,
[1:06:30] Speaker 5: if if I can put three people, the three smartest
[1:06:34] Speaker 5: people in a room, Sean would be in there. Actually
[1:06:37] Speaker 5: probably only be Sean, That's what he said. He couldn't
[1:06:41] Speaker 5: think of another smart coach.
[1:06:44] Speaker 3: But you know, it's amazing that that team has won
[1:06:46] Speaker 3: two super Bowls in the last ten years or whatever.
[1:06:49] Speaker 3: Like the way they talk about their coaching stabs and stuff,
[1:06:52] Speaker 3: the way we've seen like Sirianni do, Like.
[1:06:55] Speaker 2: No, it's crazy, Howie man, how he knows his stuff.
[1:07:00] Speaker 5: But uh yeah, I mean this offense is a bounce
[1:07:02] Speaker 5: back Canadate. I feel good about that. I feel really
[1:07:06] Speaker 5: good about the ROC higher. I think I think they'll improve.
[1:07:09] Speaker 2: And yet and you have a rushing quarterback who specifically
[1:07:12] Speaker 2: scores rushing touchdowns and he's available past you know, pick
[1:07:16] Speaker 2: seventy five and if anything, it seems to me that
[1:07:18] Speaker 2: he's falling on DraftKings. It's yes, it's bizarre.
[1:07:21] Speaker 3: Yes, and so like like and then that next group too,
[1:07:25] Speaker 3: like justin Herbert has crazy.
[1:07:26] Speaker 2: Upside and he's in the eighties.
[1:07:29] Speaker 3: You're right right to me, it just means even like,
[1:07:32] Speaker 3: like I I understand like Lamar in round especially when
[1:07:35] Speaker 3: he falls to like the five to six turn and stuff,
[1:07:37] Speaker 3: because you're starting to get to you're starting to get
[1:07:40] Speaker 3: in that like opportunity cost range where it's a little
[1:07:42] Speaker 3: bit if you especially if like the room is sharp
[1:07:44] Speaker 3: enough and taking the right running backs and wide receivers
[1:07:47] Speaker 3: by the time you're making that pick. So like, I
[1:07:49] Speaker 3: get it because I think that he I mean, he
[1:07:51] Speaker 3: obviously can match Slash exceeed Josh Allen pretty easily, right,
[1:07:55] Speaker 3: despite what he did last year.
[1:07:57] Speaker 2: But it does another OC change that's exciting right.
[1:08:00] Speaker 3: Right right, But like even you know, Jaydon Daniels is
[1:08:02] Speaker 3: upside and all these guys have upside. And then and
[1:08:04] Speaker 3: then you look at like the the quarterbacks that you
[1:08:07] Speaker 3: know we used to get in like round seventeen, right
[1:08:11] Speaker 3: that we like literally would you know you would never
[1:08:14] Speaker 3: play in a season long league or be excited about.
[1:08:16] Speaker 3: But those guys are like round twelve picks now, and
[1:08:20] Speaker 3: when you shrink that gap, it makes the guys at
[1:08:22] Speaker 3: the top more appealing than they otherwise would be because
[1:08:24] Speaker 3: there isn't that discount late. It's similar to what you
[1:08:27] Speaker 3: were talking about with running back. The difference is that, like,
[1:08:29] Speaker 3: instead of running back just being drafted earlier, running back
[1:08:32] Speaker 3: is just being drafted in a smarter.
[1:08:33] Speaker 2: Way, right right.
[1:08:35] Speaker 3: Quarterback is just being drafted earlier than it was before.
[1:08:39] Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, and then you have like Kyler Murray,
[1:08:41] Speaker 5: like got bench last year, and you know there's some
[1:08:44] Speaker 5: real risk there, but he's also a rushing quarterback, and
[1:08:47] Speaker 5: Kevin O'Connell offense with Justin Jefferson and other pretty good
[1:08:50] Speaker 5: pass catchers like that could go well.
[1:08:53] Speaker 2: You know, he's he's still available outside the top one
[1:08:56] Speaker 2: hundred picks.
[1:08:57] Speaker 3: Yeah.
[1:08:57] Speaker 5: Patrick Mahomes, who's to go down as a Hall of
[1:09:01] Speaker 5: Fame quarterback, you know, one of the best to ever
[1:09:04] Speaker 5: do it, is available outside the top ninety picks. And
[1:09:08] Speaker 5: everything about his rehab has been very bullish so far.
[1:09:11] Speaker 5: I mean, he's participating in seven on seven right now.
[1:09:15] Speaker 5: He's not doing eleven on elevens and they're not doing
[1:09:17] Speaker 5: like motions, so no one runs into him. But like
[1:09:19] Speaker 5: he literally hit Xavier Worthy on a deep pass and
[1:09:22] Speaker 5: then skip to the sideline like going nuts. Like he's
[1:09:25] Speaker 5: looking pretty healthy. He looking pretty good for week one.
[1:09:29] Speaker 5: Maybe he doesn't even play week one, maybe he misses
[1:09:31] Speaker 5: the first few games, but like he can easily pay
[1:09:33] Speaker 5: off this ADP even if that happens because of the
[1:09:36] Speaker 5: way these tournaments work, Like get you get Patrick Mahomes
[1:09:40] Speaker 5: back as Patrick Mahomes in weeks fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen,
[1:09:44] Speaker 5: where all the money is and you spent pick ninety
[1:09:47] Speaker 5: on him versus a guy who spent a third round
[1:09:51] Speaker 5: pick maybe second round pick on Josh Allen. Like the
[1:09:53] Speaker 5: opportunity cost for those two picks is so so different,
[1:09:56] Speaker 5: especially everything we talked about with smarter pricing at running back. Yeah,
[1:10:00] Speaker 5: it's just like so crazy. I just don't really understand
[1:10:04] Speaker 5: the quarterback pricing. I think there's a lot of there's
[1:10:08] Speaker 5: a lot of opportunities at quarterback this year that are atypical.
[1:10:11] Speaker 5: Like I think the quarterback market generally is pretty efficient,
[1:10:14] Speaker 5: Like at least it has been pretty efficient. Yeah, I
[1:10:17] Speaker 5: haven't had huge, huge stands at quarterback I mean a
[1:10:19] Speaker 5: couple years ago and Drake May was going in the
[1:10:21] Speaker 5: final rounds, I had a big stand on him. But
[1:10:24] Speaker 5: it's it's been harder generally to have giant stands at
[1:10:26] Speaker 5: quarterback because you're stacking, you know, more or less like
[1:10:32] Speaker 5: we're pricing the guys who run, you know, pretty efficiently.
[1:10:35] Speaker 5: But it doesn't feel as efficient to me this year.
[1:10:37] Speaker 5: I don't I don't know why this is happening, but
[1:10:39] Speaker 5: I am trying to take advantage of it.
[1:10:42] Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I mean like and also I guess one
[1:10:44] Speaker 3: more question about because this ties in the tight end
[1:10:46] Speaker 3: as well. But I think the fear that I would
[1:10:49] Speaker 3: have as like if I were you know, like I'll
[1:10:52] Speaker 3: still say I'm a fair I'm an amateur best ball
[1:10:54] Speaker 3: bro at this point, but like, you know, this is
[1:10:57] Speaker 3: maybe playing Devil's Advocate a little bit with the early
[1:10:59] Speaker 3: round height ending quarterbacks. So you get Josh. Let's just
[1:11:02] Speaker 3: put Josh Allen and brock Bauers together, right, so you
[1:11:04] Speaker 3: can get Josh Allen the third, brock Bauers in the
[1:11:07] Speaker 3: second if you fade those players, and it sounds like
[1:11:10] Speaker 3: you and I are on the same page with which
[1:11:11] Speaker 3: one we would be fading way more. Yeah, right, if
[1:11:15] Speaker 3: you're fading those guys, do you have the fear of
[1:11:19] Speaker 3: the nuclear game in the playoffs that just completely destroy you?
[1:11:22] Speaker 3: Or are you simply okay with playing probability and just
[1:11:26] Speaker 3: being logical and saying, look, if Josh Allen puts up
[1:11:29] Speaker 3: a fifty burger in Week sixteen and I just don't
[1:11:33] Speaker 3: have that, but my advance rates are really strong. That's
[1:11:36] Speaker 3: just the way this game goes.
[1:11:37] Speaker 5: That's basically where I'm at on Josh Allen, and it's
[1:11:40] Speaker 5: a position where I can get a thirty burger from
[1:11:43] Speaker 5: someone else. Yeah, I didn't have a ton of Kyle
[1:11:45] Speaker 5: Pitts last year. He went nuts in Week sixteen. I
[1:11:49] Speaker 5: got teams through to the finals without Kyle Pitts. Yeah,
[1:11:52] Speaker 5: it's not the idea that like Josh Allen will be
[1:11:54] Speaker 5: straight up necessary. I mean maybe if if he puts
[1:11:57] Speaker 5: up like fifty five in the final, yeah he's probably
[1:12:01] Speaker 5: He's probably gonna have a Josh Allen team win it.
[1:12:03] Speaker 3: But you know, but it feels like it's it's it's
[1:12:06] Speaker 3: an easier hill to climb back from with a quarterback
[1:12:10] Speaker 3: doing that than a tight end doing that. Right, like
[1:12:12] Speaker 3: an early round hundred percent percent, and.
[1:12:17] Speaker 5: It's it's gonna be hard, like Josh Allen is fighting
[1:12:20] Speaker 5: with one hand tied behind his back, maybe more than
[1:12:23] Speaker 5: one hand from a from an advance rate perspective, Like,
[1:12:27] Speaker 5: you know, the year I won BBM, Mike Evans dropped
[1:12:30] Speaker 5: fifty and he basically just wasn't in the BBM final,
[1:12:33] Speaker 5: Like there weren't enough teams in the BBM final to
[1:12:36] Speaker 5: really take advantage of that. Now in the DK final,
[1:12:39] Speaker 5: which is bigger, almost certain Mike Evan's team did win,
[1:12:42] Speaker 5: But it's like it's you know, you got to think
[1:12:44] Speaker 5: about like in some ways, like if I'm doing more
[1:12:46] Speaker 5: higher stake stuff where I'm expecting a smaller final, smaller
[1:12:49] Speaker 5: pods to get through, I'd be even less interested in
[1:12:52] Speaker 5: Josh Allen. It's like there's a good chance that I
[1:12:54] Speaker 5: could Josh Allen could drop fifty and not be in
[1:12:57] Speaker 5: the tournament. I'm playing because he has such a different
[1:13:02] Speaker 5: cost than the other quarterbacks with extremely similar profiles.
[1:13:07] Speaker 2: It's not even like upside profiles like Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels,
[1:13:11] Speaker 2: Like these are straight up rushing quarterbacks right like they.
[1:13:16] Speaker 3: We're not drafting second year CJ.
[1:13:18] Speaker 2: Stroud.
[1:13:19] Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, this isn't a projection. This is just like
[1:13:23] Speaker 5: these dudes, these dudes could like crush. They could easily
[1:13:26] Speaker 5: if Lamar Jackson outscores Josh Allen this year, Like, we're
[1:13:29] Speaker 5: not why would we be surprised, It'd be weird to
[1:13:31] Speaker 5: be surprised. Yeah, you know, And so I just the
[1:13:35] Speaker 5: cost difference of Josh Allen to the rest of the
[1:13:37] Speaker 5: group puts them at a major disadvantage from an advance
[1:13:40] Speaker 5: ray perspective, even before you get into some of the
[1:13:43] Speaker 5: you know, this year's pricing around these I mean, and look,
[1:13:47] Speaker 5: wide receivers are still expensive. This is kind of going
[1:13:49] Speaker 5: back to what I was saying before, like, hey, you know,
[1:13:52] Speaker 5: it isn't twenty twenty. It isn't twenty twenty one where
[1:13:55] Speaker 5: the wide receiver two is in the second round. Like
[1:13:58] Speaker 5: there's six wide receivers off the board in the first
[1:14:00] Speaker 5: twelve picks. Half the first half of the first round
[1:14:03] Speaker 5: is wide receivers. Wide receivers do kind of dry up
[1:14:07] Speaker 5: like they have over the over the past couple of years.
[1:14:09] Speaker 5: It is it is easy to fall behind it receiver
[1:14:11] Speaker 5: and spending a third round pick on on Josh Allen
[1:14:15] Speaker 5: instead of getting you know, our second round pick instead
[1:14:18] Speaker 5: of getting like a J. Brown or you know, you
[1:14:20] Speaker 5: get George Pickens or you know, any of those receivers
[1:14:22] Speaker 5: in the third Nico. Yeah, like that that's a huge
[1:14:26] Speaker 5: opportunity cost and something that by round seven I might
[1:14:31] Speaker 5: be looking at. It's like Jalen Hurts and a J.
[1:14:34] Speaker 5: Brown or Josh Allen and DK metcalf right, right, you know,
[1:14:41] Speaker 5: it's pretty different. Yeah, so that's where I'm thinking, like, Okay,
[1:14:46] Speaker 5: Josh Allen, it's a variant game. Josh Allen might ultimately
[1:14:50] Speaker 5: be the correct answer because he's he's awesome. He is
[1:14:53] Speaker 5: the best quarterback in the league. He has the best
[1:14:56] Speaker 5: chance of going nuclear. But I want to play this
[1:14:59] Speaker 5: season and sharp and not play scared and do what
[1:15:03] Speaker 5: I think the best things I can do for all
[1:15:05] Speaker 5: these prices are.
[1:15:05] Speaker 2: And if Josh.
[1:15:06] Speaker 5: Allen goes absolutely nuts, that's probably gonna suck for me.
[1:15:10] Speaker 5: But he's he's so expensive that it's like it's possible
[1:15:12] Speaker 5: it doesn't even suck for me.
[1:15:14] Speaker 3: Yeah, no, no, exactly, exactly. No, I'm one hundred percent
[1:15:17] Speaker 3: with you. Before I let you go, give me a
[1:15:19] Speaker 3: give me like a hot take, a truth serum take,
[1:15:21] Speaker 3: if you will, you guys, have have done a lot
[1:15:23] Speaker 3: of those in your day for this season.
[1:15:26] Speaker 5: Yeah, so we've talked about on ship chasing that maybe
[1:15:30] Speaker 5: we do, you know, the kind of the cold sweat
[1:15:32] Speaker 5: take for the for the truth, cause the you know,
[1:15:35] Speaker 5: it's it should be something that like you kind of
[1:15:37] Speaker 5: don't want to happen. Yeah, I guess one thing I'm I'm.
[1:15:45] Speaker 5: One thing that's on my mind is some of these
[1:15:49] Speaker 5: second year running backs maybe mattering more than like I'm
[1:15:54] Speaker 5: thinking they do now, Like you know, people are like
[1:15:58] Speaker 5: what about Jaden Blue, you know, interested in him, the
[1:16:00] Speaker 5: kind of thing like Dylan Sampson, you know, some of
[1:16:03] Speaker 5: these types of guys potentially emerging as surprising playmakers and
[1:16:11] Speaker 5: guys that do shake up like what I'm currently valuing
[1:16:14] Speaker 5: the landscape as like in a way like Tank Bigsby
[1:16:17] Speaker 5: like kind of sucked as a rookie, but like actually
[1:16:20] Speaker 5: was pretty decent in a second season, you know, and
[1:16:24] Speaker 5: paid off a late round ADP there. So it's it's
[1:16:27] Speaker 5: not really a super hot take. But one thing I
[1:16:32] Speaker 5: do I am, I am, I really do have my
[1:16:34] Speaker 5: eye on the potential for running backs. I don't believe
[1:16:37] Speaker 5: in to bubble up into roles or into opportunity or
[1:16:41] Speaker 5: just starting to flash like maybe they've taken a step
[1:16:43] Speaker 5: and they do ultimately shake up this landscape and that
[1:16:47] Speaker 5: June doesn't define the entire twenty twenty six drafting season.
[1:16:52] Speaker 3: Yeah, that makes sense. It's a really good take, Pat,
[1:16:55] Speaker 3: This is awesome. I always love chopping it up with you.
[1:16:57] Speaker 3: Let everyone know where they can find you, what you're
[1:17:00] Speaker 3: working on, the shows you're doing all that stuff.
[1:17:03] Speaker 5: Yeah, so you can check out on the Legendary Upside
[1:17:05] Speaker 5: YouTube channel doing a ton of content and as well
[1:17:09] Speaker 5: as on the podcast Wherever you Get You podcast Legendary
[1:17:12] Speaker 5: Upside Drafting. A lot of teams doing weekly pods with
[1:17:17] Speaker 5: Greg Branos, the Coach Speak Index, Sam Sherman, who on
[1:17:20] Speaker 5: BBM last year doing a show called That's Fair with
[1:17:23] Speaker 5: him reference to our.
[1:17:24] Speaker 2: ADP chasing days.
[1:17:26] Speaker 5: I'm also doing ADP chasing every week every Tuesday evening
[1:17:30] Speaker 5: ship chasing on Wednesdays. I do a show on Tuesday
[1:17:34] Speaker 5: where on the leg up channel where I just take
[1:17:37] Speaker 5: the top recommendation from the sidekick, using the sim driven
[1:17:40] Speaker 5: player recommendations that I talked about before, I just take
[1:17:43] Speaker 5: the top guy so you can kind of see what
[1:17:44] Speaker 5: the sims are viewing is pretty strong teams in this landscape.
[1:17:49] Speaker 5: And then I'm doing a lot of writing and ranking
[1:17:51] Speaker 5: over at Legendary Upside. Legendary Upside dot com you can
[1:17:55] Speaker 5: get all that there. Wrote up the rookie wide receivers.
[1:17:57] Speaker 5: I'm running up the rookie running backs and second your
[1:18:00] Speaker 5: running backs for Best Ball as well. Matt Herby's got
[1:18:02] Speaker 5: some great Dynasty content on the site as well. And
[1:18:05] Speaker 5: then if you want to check out the Sidekick, it's
[1:18:07] Speaker 5: at Legendary Upside dot com slash Sidekick Awesome Man.
[1:18:10] Speaker 3: Definitely check it out. You're pumping out some awesome content
[1:18:14] Speaker 3: and I you know, I obviously I am a big
[1:18:16] Speaker 3: fan of of you, both both on and off the field.
[1:18:19] Speaker 2: Pat, I appreciate that, and likewise.
[1:18:21] Speaker 3: Make sure you check out my stuff over on Late
[1:18:23] Speaker 3: Round dot com. I do have an official release date
[1:18:26] Speaker 3: for the Draft Guide. It's going to be July tenth
[1:18:28] Speaker 3: this year. You know, it's been July first other years,
[1:18:30] Speaker 3: but we had so much chaos with the website rebuild
[1:18:34] Speaker 3: and just so much going on that you know, we
[1:18:37] Speaker 3: moved it back a little bit this year, but that
[1:18:39] Speaker 3: really doesn't change that much because it's a season long
[1:18:42] Speaker 3: guide and it's, you know, just a little bit later
[1:18:45] Speaker 3: than normal. No one's really drafting their season long leagues
[1:18:47] Speaker 3: on July third, anyway, but July tenth is the release date.
[1:18:51] Speaker 3: That's gonna be a Friday as always. If you pre
[1:18:53] Speaker 3: order now, you'll get it at a discount, and then
[1:18:55] Speaker 3: every Friday through August you will get an update to
[1:18:59] Speaker 3: that guy. Check that out Lateround dot com. Otherwise, everyone,
[1:19:03] Speaker 3: thanks for tuning.

Shows are listed from Apple Podcasts' charts and directory, and Podcast Index where it is used. Every show and episode belongs to its publisher and plays from the publisher's own feed; this site hosts none of them.