# Rewind: The Gray Area of Fantasy Football

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 16 Jun 2026, 27 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/4dfd04b6-1c4e-4a0f-b32c-b46600ec320c/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

It's another rewind week, where JJ brings back an old evergreen episode that's still relevant today. This week? It's all about the gray area of fantasy football. Make sure to check out LateRound.com to pre-order the 2026 Draft Guide. And while you're there, become a member! The new Members Hub is the place for rankings and tiers, data dumps, and more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: This is the last with your host JJ zachera JJ
[0:06] Speaker 1: Zacher reson Hey guys, JJ, here with another rewind episode.
[0:15] Speaker 1: Many of you probably remember this, but last year there
[0:18] Speaker 1: was a controversial Dynasty trade that I did in one
[0:20] Speaker 1: of my leagues, and then I talked about that move
[0:22] Speaker 1: in a newsletter. That newsletter was then pushed to social
[0:25] Speaker 1: media and on to Reddit, and people ended up talking
[0:28] Speaker 1: about it a whole lot more than some of my
[0:30] Speaker 1: other content, And honestly, it was a really fun conversation.
[0:34] Speaker 1: I enjoyed people's takes, people disagreeing with me, people agreeing
[0:38] Speaker 1: with me. This is what fantasy football is all about,
[0:42] Speaker 1: and I think it's my job to, yes, give you
[0:44] Speaker 1: guys advice, but also make you think differently about this game.
[0:48] Speaker 1: But the response to that newsletter pushed me into an
[0:50] Speaker 1: episode on the gray area of fantasy football. It was
[0:54] Speaker 1: an episode that really came from the heart. As silly
[0:56] Speaker 1: as that sounds, I approached this game in a specific way.
[1:00] Speaker 1: This trade really opened me up to explain my thinking
[1:02] Speaker 1: in a more detailed manner, and that's what this episode
[1:05] Speaker 1: is really all about. Playing these rewind episodes back are
[1:09] Speaker 1: always really interesting to me because there's no hiding from takes.
[1:13] Speaker 2: They're all out there.
[1:14] Speaker 1: You can see exactly what I was thinking in that moment,
[1:17] Speaker 1: and you can see how right or wrong my forecasting was.
[1:21] Speaker 1: In this case, there are things where I feel great
[1:23] Speaker 1: about the process, but there are things where I'm surprised
[1:25] Speaker 1: at the result. Regardless, I think this is an evergreen
[1:29] Speaker 1: episode that we realistically should visit almost every single year.
[1:32] Speaker 1: It's an important part of my process and it's a
[1:35] Speaker 1: great way to wrap your head around how I think
[1:37] Speaker 1: about fantasy football. So, without further ado, here's the episode
[1:41] Speaker 1: on the gray area of fantasy football. Every once in
[1:47] Speaker 1: a while, I do episodes like this one where I
[1:48] Speaker 1: kind of just go I don't have the clearest goal
[1:51] Speaker 1: in mind when I put together my little show sheet,
[1:53] Speaker 1: but I know there's a general message that I'm trying
[1:56] Speaker 1: to get across, and today's message is the following. We
[1:59] Speaker 1: need to get away from this black and white thinking
[2:02] Speaker 1: that's rampant in fantasy football. Maybe it's hot take culture
[2:05] Speaker 1: taking over. Maybe it's the fact that clicks are more
[2:08] Speaker 1: important than more genuine content. Whatever the reason, the fantasy
[2:12] Speaker 1: football world seems to be losing the gray area, when
[2:16] Speaker 1: that's the opposite of what actually should be happening as
[2:20] Speaker 1: we mature with this game, As this game becomes more
[2:22] Speaker 1: and more popular and we become more and more interested
[2:25] Speaker 1: in it, you would think there'd be more recognition to
[2:27] Speaker 1: the fact that variance is everywhere within it. Like I've
[2:31] Speaker 1: been around for a while now, I've been doing this
[2:33] Speaker 1: as my job for twelve years. At this point, I
[2:37] Speaker 1: sort of grew up in the fantasy football space, starting
[2:39] Speaker 1: when I was in my early twenties, childless, living in
[2:42] Speaker 1: an apartment with my girlfriend who's not my wife, thinking
[2:45] Speaker 1: I had the answers when I had none, And trust me,
[2:48] Speaker 1: I know that twelve years from now, I'll be looking
[2:50] Speaker 1: back at this exact moment, probably saying the exact same thing.
[2:54] Speaker 1: But as I've watched the fantasy football space grow into
[2:57] Speaker 1: the awesome community that it's become, I've seen aspiring fantasy
[3:01] Speaker 1: analysts pop up and gain popularity. And something that I've
[3:05] Speaker 1: noticed with those up and coming analysts is that the
[3:07] Speaker 1: first year when that analyst gains a significant platform, when
[3:10] Speaker 1: they're able to talk to thousands of people for the
[3:12] Speaker 1: first time, that first year is always full of insane confidence.
[3:18] Speaker 1: They fire takes out there like it's no one's business.
[3:21] Speaker 1: But that first year humbles you. Man. You realize that
[3:25] Speaker 1: when you start to put yourself out there, that means
[3:27] Speaker 1: you're putting yourself out there to be both right and wrong,
[3:30] Speaker 1: and when there's more pressure to be right, and when
[3:33] Speaker 1: you're then inevitably wrong, you realize on a much deeper
[3:36] Speaker 1: level that this game of fantasy football that all of
[3:39] Speaker 1: us love, it's impossible to bat a thousand, even if
[3:43] Speaker 1: everything seem to line up perfectly prior to the start
[3:46] Speaker 1: of the season. After that first year, you go from
[3:50] Speaker 1: having more black and white takes to realizing that this game,
[3:53] Speaker 1: it lives in the gray area. There's really no need
[3:56] Speaker 1: to say this absolutely will not happen scoring fantasy points
[4:01] Speaker 1: based on those bold outcomes. Instead, you start to add
[4:05] Speaker 1: words like probably and likely to your everyday vocabulary. Your
[4:09] Speaker 1: take goes from he's definitely gonna finish as a top
[4:12] Speaker 1: fantasy producer, too, he's probably gonna finish as a top
[4:15] Speaker 1: fantasy producer because you know that in this game anything
[4:20] Speaker 1: can happen.
[4:21] Speaker 2: Anything.
[4:22] Speaker 1: Now. I bring all this up because just a couple
[4:24] Speaker 1: of weeks ago, less than a couple of weeks ago,
[4:26] Speaker 1: I made a trade in one of my dynasty leagues.
[4:29] Speaker 1: It's one that's filled with other analysts. It's a fourteen teamer.
[4:32] Speaker 1: There are deep rosters. It's a league for sikos. But
[4:36] Speaker 1: in that league it's a super flex league. My roster's
[4:39] Speaker 1: loaded at wide receiver. It's fine enough at tight end.
[4:42] Speaker 1: The quarterbacks are iffy. The running backs are super iffy. Now,
[4:46] Speaker 1: to anyone who's listened or consumed my content over the
[4:48] Speaker 1: last week or so, you probably know where this is going.
[4:52] Speaker 1: I brought it up on Perspectives with Jeff Bell last week.
[4:55] Speaker 1: I wrote about it in my weekly newsletter, which, by
[4:57] Speaker 1: the way, totally free to subscribe over Late round dot com.
[5:02] Speaker 1: But going into that league's rookie draft, I had the
[5:04] Speaker 1: one oh six, where I'd planned to take Trayvon Henderson,
[5:07] Speaker 1: a perfect addition to my roster. But I knew that
[5:09] Speaker 1: I wanted to bulk up at running back because this
[5:11] Speaker 1: draft class is filled with talented runners.
[5:14] Speaker 2: So I made the following move.
[5:17] Speaker 1: I traded away Romadounza, and I received the eighth overall
[5:21] Speaker 1: pick in the rookie draft, the one oh eight. Now,
[5:23] Speaker 1: I'm a believer that you guys generally don't care about
[5:26] Speaker 1: my teams, but in this case, it's a slower part
[5:29] Speaker 1: of the football calendar. And honestly, the conversation around this
[5:32] Speaker 1: trade has been so incredibly interesting to me. It found
[5:36] Speaker 1: its way to Reddit last week, and more people sided
[5:38] Speaker 1: against the one oh eight than for it, like by
[5:41] Speaker 1: a pretty healthy margin. And by the way, shout out
[5:44] Speaker 1: to Reddit. I really enjoyed the conversation that I have
[5:46] Speaker 1: on there for the most part.
[5:48] Speaker 2: Now.
[5:48] Speaker 1: Like I said, I also talked about this trade with
[5:50] Speaker 1: Jeff Bell last week on Perspectives, and naturally I received
[5:54] Speaker 1: some feedback. One comment on Spotify said, quote Romadunza might
[5:58] Speaker 1: be the most divisive dance JJ has ever taken. Another
[6:02] Speaker 1: comment said, come for rookie draft analysis, stay for a
[6:06] Speaker 1: half hour of Roma doonsay talk with an eye roll emoji.
[6:10] Speaker 1: They also spelled a dounday with an a. Then it
[6:13] Speaker 1: said good job with a note that they were being sarcastic.
[6:17] Speaker 1: Needless to say, that person is gonna hate today's episode now,
[6:21] Speaker 1: whether it's those comments in the podcast email, some comments
[6:24] Speaker 1: on Blue Sky or Twitter or on Reddit, the conversation
[6:27] Speaker 1: around this trade has really surprised me, not in a
[6:30] Speaker 1: bad way, just more in a really kind of way.
[6:34] Speaker 1: Like that comment about Roma Dunsay being the most divisive
[6:36] Speaker 1: stance I've ever taken.
[6:38] Speaker 2: Brother or sister.
[6:39] Speaker 1: If that's my most divisive take, then I'm not doing
[6:42] Speaker 1: a very good job of explaining myself in this podcast.
[6:46] Speaker 1: So let's take today and walk through this because I
[6:48] Speaker 1: think it's a situation that perfectly describes how I view
[6:52] Speaker 1: fantasy football. It's a scenario where you might have that
[6:55] Speaker 1: aha moment where you realize exactly what I'm trying to
[6:58] Speaker 1: say when I say this game has a lot of
[7:01] Speaker 1: variance and that you should be living in the gray area.
[7:05] Speaker 1: I'll make you realize that this is not a divisive
[7:07] Speaker 1: stance about Roma Dunza at all. In fact, I actually
[7:11] Speaker 1: like Romadunza. My thought process in trading a Dunza for
[7:16] Speaker 1: the one oweight, and I've stated this several times now,
[7:19] Speaker 1: but it was that at worst with that one O
[7:21] Speaker 1: eight pick, I was looking at a Mechagbuka. At worst,
[7:24] Speaker 1: at best, someone like Quinn Shawn Judkins would fall, which
[7:27] Speaker 1: gave me the perfect need for my team. Now, some
[7:30] Speaker 1: may say that's silly that I should never give up
[7:33] Speaker 1: on a player like a Dunza for a player like Agbuka.
[7:36] Speaker 1: Not only was a Dunza a better prospect, but Aguka
[7:39] Speaker 1: is buried on his depth chart in Tampa Bay. I'm
[7:41] Speaker 1: just delaying this exact same scenario happening next year, right
[7:46] Speaker 1: because as we know, a Dunesay competed with good pass
[7:49] Speaker 1: catchers in twenty twenty four, his situation was not that desirable.
[7:54] Speaker 1: But to me, there are a lot of assumptions being
[7:57] Speaker 1: baked into Romadunza's overall valuation, and the majority of those
[8:01] Speaker 1: assumptions are favorable ones. When I approach my own evaluation
[8:06] Speaker 1: of a player, my goal is not just look at
[8:08] Speaker 1: data that favors some narrative that I'm trying to drive home.
[8:12] Speaker 1: I want to see the pros and the cons. I
[8:15] Speaker 1: do the same thing with some of my more robust
[8:17] Speaker 1: fantasy football analysis too. As I'm writing it, as i'm
[8:20] Speaker 1: putting it together, I'm actively thinking, how can someone poke
[8:24] Speaker 1: a hole in this argument that I'm building here.
[8:27] Speaker 2: No player is.
[8:28] Speaker 1: Flawless, and if you approach a player assuming that he's flawless,
[8:32] Speaker 1: you're gonna have a hard time doing well in any
[8:35] Speaker 1: fantasy format, especially in dynasty. Now, for Roma Dunesday, the
[8:40] Speaker 1: current pros the good parts of his profile, or that
[8:43] Speaker 1: he was a good prospect. We can excuse some of
[8:45] Speaker 1: his underwhelming year one numbers when you give them offensive context,
[8:49] Speaker 1: and when you can bine some of those rookie season
[8:51] Speaker 1: numbers with his overall situation. There are some players who
[8:55] Speaker 1: he compares favorably to. One of them, for example, is
[8:58] Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins. That's something I wrote about extensively in the
[9:02] Speaker 1: Prospect guid. I even brought it up on the show
[9:03] Speaker 1: a few months ago. There's a path for Roma Dunza
[9:07] Speaker 1: to be at DeAndre Hopkins like wide receiver, even knowing
[9:11] Speaker 1: that I traded a Dunza away because there are cons
[9:15] Speaker 1: to his profile. Two, we can make excuses for his
[9:19] Speaker 1: rookie season numbers, and we should to some degree, But
[9:22] Speaker 1: his rookie season numbers were also pretty bad. Hit the
[9:25] Speaker 1: yards per out run rate of one point one eight
[9:28] Speaker 1: yards per out run is a pretty predictive metric, especially
[9:31] Speaker 1: for rookie wide receivers. In my year two model database,
[9:34] Speaker 1: there were over one hundred and fifty wide receivers who
[9:37] Speaker 1: ran fifty or more routes as rookies with first year
[9:39] Speaker 1: yards per rout run rates below one point three. So
[9:43] Speaker 1: that's a number that's a good bit higher than where
[9:45] Speaker 1: a Dunza is at. Just five of those wide outs
[9:48] Speaker 1: ended up giving fantasy managers a season of fifteen or
[9:51] Speaker 1: more PPR points per game and either year two or
[9:53] Speaker 1: year three, Yes, situationally things were not good. When people
[9:58] Speaker 1: heard or read about this tra they would say, but
[10:01] Speaker 1: don't you realize that he played in such a horrific situation.
[10:04] Speaker 1: Of course, you've got to at least give me the
[10:07] Speaker 1: benefit of the doubt here and know by now that
[10:09] Speaker 1: I'm not going to make decisions or think about players
[10:12] Speaker 1: without any sort of context.
[10:14] Speaker 2: But yeah, that's why we can explain some of this away.
[10:18] Speaker 2: But how much that's the real question.
[10:21] Speaker 1: A situation can't just cancel out everything that a Dunzay
[10:24] Speaker 1: did in year one, right, Like, we can't just assume
[10:27] Speaker 1: that season never happened. That wouldn't be a very fair
[10:30] Speaker 1: way to do analysis, because if we do that for
[10:33] Speaker 1: a Dounsa, wouldn't we then have to do that for
[10:35] Speaker 1: every other wide receiver who may have stepped into a
[10:37] Speaker 1: situation that wasn't ideal as a rookie. There are tons
[10:41] Speaker 1: of instances where that's been the case. Maybe they haven't
[10:43] Speaker 1: been identical to a Dunza's circumstances. But where do you
[10:46] Speaker 1: draw the line. Where do you draw the line and
[10:50] Speaker 1: say we don't have to worry about that rookie season whatsoever.
[10:54] Speaker 1: My point is that there's a mix here. We need
[10:57] Speaker 1: to recognize that his numbers were pretty poor, his peripheral
[10:59] Speaker 1: number were not great. Historically, wide receivers usually don't become
[11:04] Speaker 1: stars after that kind of rookie season. But we can
[11:09] Speaker 1: then also recognize that Caleb Williams had really bad accuracy
[11:13] Speaker 1: when he targeted a Dounzay, that he had tough competition,
[11:16] Speaker 1: that his coaching sucked. Like, trust me, guys, I get
[11:20] Speaker 1: all of that. I'm just saying that we can't let
[11:22] Speaker 1: that overshadow the actual production that we know has some
[11:26] Speaker 1: predictive value, actually a lot of predictive value. What I'm
[11:31] Speaker 1: doing here is living in the gray area. I recognize
[11:35] Speaker 1: the range of outcomes for Roma Dunza. I fully see
[11:38] Speaker 1: a scenario where he's great. I also see a scenario
[11:42] Speaker 1: where he was just an overvalued prospect and it didn't
[11:45] Speaker 1: totally totally work out.
[11:47] Speaker 2: He didn't become a star.
[11:49] Speaker 1: I think it's healthy to see that this can go
[11:51] Speaker 1: in two very different directions.
[11:53] Speaker 2: Now, going back to that trade.
[11:55] Speaker 1: Remember, I was kind of hoping to get a running
[11:56] Speaker 1: back in that one ow eight spot, with like Buka
[11:59] Speaker 1: being sort of a word case scenario, but I also
[12:01] Speaker 1: had the flexibility to get like RJ. Harvey if I
[12:04] Speaker 1: wanted to. And for the record, Agbuka wasn't even the
[12:07] Speaker 1: player that I ended up getting. I moved up one
[12:09] Speaker 1: spot in the one oh seven and I got quinch
[12:11] Speaker 1: On Judkins, So this wasn't even in a Dunza for
[12:14] Speaker 1: Igbuka trade. But I do think strictly looking at Igbuka
[12:18] Speaker 1: is a really really interesting exercise, and it's one that
[12:21] Speaker 1: people who read my newsletter last week really ran with.
[12:25] Speaker 1: There's this idea out there that a mecha Agbuka is
[12:27] Speaker 1: just going to be in Roma Dunsay's situation next year.
[12:30] Speaker 1: That how we view at Dunza right now, That's how
[12:33] Speaker 1: we're gonna view Agbuka, which I understand the logic, good prospect,
[12:38] Speaker 1: but in a crowded situation in year one leads to
[12:40] Speaker 1: less opportunity, which leads the worst fantasy production, which leads
[12:43] Speaker 1: to us questioning Agbuka's true long term.
[12:46] Speaker 2: Viability at least to some degree.
[12:49] Speaker 1: And I think the general consensus liked a Dounsay as
[12:52] Speaker 1: a prospect more.
[12:53] Speaker 2: Than Agbuka, so Igbuka will get.
[12:56] Speaker 1: Even less of a benefit of a doubt compared to
[12:58] Speaker 1: Adunza right now. But when we focus on that soul comparison,
[13:03] Speaker 1: we're losing sight of the various outcomes that could really
[13:05] Speaker 1: occur here. For one, what if Abuca does have some
[13:08] Speaker 1: sort of down year production wise, like from a points
[13:11] Speaker 1: per game perspective, but his peripherals are really strong. You
[13:14] Speaker 1: don't think fantasy analysts are going to tout him into
[13:17] Speaker 1: year two. You don't think that's going to raise his
[13:19] Speaker 1: overall value in dynasty. Or what if the Buccaneers really
[13:23] Speaker 1: do let Mike Evans walk next year? Or what if
[13:25] Speaker 1: Chris Godwin doesn't get back to his old self after
[13:28] Speaker 1: sustaining a really gruesome injury last season. Now, of course
[13:32] Speaker 1: there's an out here where Agbuka's back with a healthy
[13:35] Speaker 1: Evans and a healthy Godwin in twenty twenty six, and
[13:38] Speaker 1: that could cap his upside for yet another season. But
[13:42] Speaker 1: is that not kind of what's happening with Roma Dunesay
[13:45] Speaker 1: right now, at least to some degree. I mean, it's
[13:48] Speaker 1: not an apples to apples comparison But something that just
[13:51] Speaker 1: keeps getting lost in this discussion with a Donsay is
[13:53] Speaker 1: the fact that this new Bears coaching staff used their
[13:56] Speaker 1: first two picks in this year's draft on pass catchers.
[14:00] Speaker 1: They got Colston Lovelin and Luther Burden. Is it not
[14:04] Speaker 1: possible that Romadunsay actually has tougher competition this year than
[14:08] Speaker 1: he had last year. I mean, he was playing alongside
[14:12] Speaker 1: Keenan Allen last year. Allan still hasn't signed with a team.
[14:16] Speaker 1: He's thirty three years old, inching towards the end of
[14:19] Speaker 1: his career. That's the thing when I see people tell
[14:22] Speaker 1: me that Agbuka is just going to be the twenty
[14:24] Speaker 1: twenty sixth version of Romadoonsay, that he'll be right in
[14:27] Speaker 1: this spot that a Dounza's in right now, I just
[14:30] Speaker 1: don't see how we're so confident and that one singular outcome.
[14:35] Speaker 1: I don't see why we're thinking about this in such
[14:37] Speaker 1: a binary, black and white way. You mean to tell
[14:41] Speaker 1: me that it's likely that it's probable that we see,
[14:45] Speaker 1: at mechag Buka have a bad season on the peripherals front,
[14:48] Speaker 1: that his yards per out run will be well below
[14:50] Speaker 1: average for a star wide receiver, and then we watch
[14:53] Speaker 1: his team, the Buccaneers, draft pass catchers with their first
[14:55] Speaker 1: two round picks.
[14:57] Speaker 2: That's probable.
[15:00] Speaker 1: The reason, if not a huge chunk of the reason
[15:02] Speaker 1: that Romadunza is less attractive today than he was a
[15:05] Speaker 1: month ago, is because more competition was added to that team,
[15:10] Speaker 1: and yet we really haven't seen his overall price tag
[15:12] Speaker 1: change that much. Over on keep trade cut A, Dunze
[15:16] Speaker 1: is still the wide receiver twenty in Dynasty now one
[15:19] Speaker 1: common pushback and I saw this so many times. But
[15:23] Speaker 1: something that people kept telling me is well, what about
[15:26] Speaker 1: Jackson Smith and Jigba? Because as we know, Jaysn was
[15:30] Speaker 1: drafted in round one, he had really tough competition on
[15:33] Speaker 1: his team at wide receiver, and then he had a
[15:35] Speaker 1: pretty poor rookie season. It's a whole lot like the
[15:39] Speaker 1: Roma Dunday situation, and it's a whole lot like a
[15:42] Speaker 1: mechag Buka. I've even made that comparison with Agbuka. But
[15:46] Speaker 1: when we look at Jackson Smith and Jigba as the
[15:49] Speaker 1: sole comparison, we're losing sight of the greater picture. Yes, guys,
[15:54] Speaker 1: there's a scenario where Romadunza sees a rise like JASN
[15:58] Speaker 1: did last year. That's in his range of outcomes. Remember,
[16:02] Speaker 1: I've comped a Dounsay to DeAndre Hopkins this offseason. But
[16:06] Speaker 1: not only did the ZAP model just like JSN more
[16:09] Speaker 1: as a prospect, but the Seahawks didn't go out and
[16:12] Speaker 1: draft a tight end tenth overall and a wide receiver
[16:15] Speaker 1: thirty ninth overall the following season. And not only that,
[16:19] Speaker 1: and this is most important, but JSN didn't have the
[16:22] Speaker 1: same type of value in the dynasty market the following
[16:25] Speaker 1: season after his rookie year. I just told you that
[16:28] Speaker 1: Roma Dunsay is the wide receiver twenty over on keep
[16:31] Speaker 1: trade cut, despite a down rookie season, despite his team
[16:34] Speaker 1: drafting two pass catchers with their first two picks. Despite
[16:38] Speaker 1: all of that, he's still the wide receiver twenty. He
[16:42] Speaker 1: dropped his five wide receiver spots since the NFL Draft
[16:45] Speaker 1: ended last year. At this time, Jackson Smith and Jigbo
[16:49] Speaker 1: was the wide receiver twenty five. According to Dynasty League
[16:52] Speaker 1: Football's ADP, he was the wide receiver thirty five, And
[16:56] Speaker 1: there was a point in the summer on keep trade
[16:57] Speaker 1: cut last year where JSM was closer to hyde receiver thirty.
[17:02] Speaker 1: To me, that's signaling that the Dynasty market is making
[17:05] Speaker 1: more excuses for Romadunza than it was Jackson Smith and Jigba,
[17:09] Speaker 1: because keep in mind JSN had arguably better peripherals in
[17:13] Speaker 1: year one than Romadunza had, and his team didn't go
[17:16] Speaker 1: out and draft a tight end and wide receiver with
[17:19] Speaker 1: two top fifty picks in the draft. And Yeah, clearly
[17:23] Speaker 1: the Ben Johnson effect. That's what's happening here too. In fact,
[17:27] Speaker 1: i'd argue that's the main reason a lot of this
[17:29] Speaker 1: is happening, and I'm not dismissing that. What I'm trying
[17:32] Speaker 1: to focus on here is the fact that this really
[17:35] Speaker 1: centers around cost and how the dynasty market is reacting
[17:38] Speaker 1: to things, and to me, the market isn't reacting enough
[17:42] Speaker 1: to some of those things. Typically with players like this
[17:46] Speaker 1: and situations like this, we see a little bit more
[17:49] Speaker 1: of a drop. Everything in fantasy football comes down to price.
[17:54] Speaker 1: I'll draft anyone at the right price, I'll trade for
[17:57] Speaker 1: anyone at the right price. Like I'm sure a lot
[18:01] Speaker 1: of you have some sort of dream car. I'm not
[18:03] Speaker 1: a car person. I don't really have that. I know
[18:06] Speaker 1: a lot of you do. What's stopping you from getting
[18:09] Speaker 1: that dream car. Resources. You only have so much money
[18:13] Speaker 1: to spend and you need to allocate that money appropriately.
[18:17] Speaker 1: You're not Jeff Bezos, or at least I don't think
[18:19] Speaker 1: Jeff Bezos listens to the Late Round podcast. I would
[18:23] Speaker 1: love to have kept Romadunze, but that's not how fantasy
[18:26] Speaker 1: football works. And to me, there's a point right now
[18:30] Speaker 1: where playing probability with Romadunze does make sense, where I
[18:34] Speaker 1: can flip him for a similar cost that I bought
[18:37] Speaker 1: him for, despite the fact that he received more youthful competition,
[18:40] Speaker 1: and despite the fact that he did have an underwhelming
[18:43] Speaker 1: rookie season, and in turn, my worst case scenario is
[18:47] Speaker 1: basically putting me right back to where Romadunze is this
[18:49] Speaker 1: year because a Mechagbuca was that worst case scenario. And yeah,
[18:54] Speaker 1: I'd have to wait another year to be in this position,
[18:56] Speaker 1: and time is money, time is valuable, But also that's
[19:00] Speaker 1: more of a worst case scenario. There's a better scenario
[19:04] Speaker 1: here where Agbuka has better peripherals than Romadunze, whereas competition
[19:09] Speaker 1: is weaker in year two than what we're seeing right
[19:12] Speaker 1: now with Adunesay, where his team doesn't go out and
[19:15] Speaker 1: add more pass catchers. Maybe framing this another way will
[19:19] Speaker 1: really help. We know that in dynasty, managers don't have forever.
[19:24] Speaker 1: They're not the most patient people in the world, nor
[19:26] Speaker 1: should they be. You can't wait around for players to
[19:29] Speaker 1: develop because as each year passes, and if that player
[19:33] Speaker 1: is not getting any better, you know, the odds of
[19:35] Speaker 1: him actually being a stud get exponentially worse. So let
[19:40] Speaker 1: me ask the question that I asked Jeff last week.
[19:44] Speaker 1: Where would Romadunza have to rank this season in fantasy football?
[19:47] Speaker 1: What kind of points per game output would he need
[19:49] Speaker 1: to see in order to gain value in dynasty year
[19:52] Speaker 1: over year. That's the question that seems to never get answered.
[19:56] Speaker 1: What kind of production are you expecting a Donzay to day?
[20:00] Speaker 1: Not a mechanic Buca, but a Doonsay? Because I can
[20:04] Speaker 1: tell you this, My projections right now have Roma Dunza
[20:08] Speaker 1: at wide receiver thirty six. Most rankings have him around
[20:12] Speaker 1: there too. Mike Clay's projections the gold standard in the
[20:15] Speaker 1: fantasy space. His projections have a Dunday at wide receiver
[20:19] Speaker 1: thirty nine. That's a huge discrepancy between dynasty valuation and
[20:25] Speaker 1: season long valuation, and what those projections tell us is
[20:29] Speaker 1: the most likely median outcome. That median outcome for a
[20:33] Speaker 1: Dounza is a fringe wide receiver three season. And if
[20:37] Speaker 1: a Dunsa hits a fringe wide receiver three season, what
[20:40] Speaker 1: do you think is going to happen to his dynasty value?
[20:43] Speaker 1: That's then two seasons of underwhelming production, of non super
[20:48] Speaker 1: usable production. Dynasty managers are not going to buy into that.
[20:54] Speaker 1: So while you can sit here and say that a
[20:55] Speaker 1: Mecha Buca's most likely outcome would be placing him in
[20:58] Speaker 1: a spot that's similar to roma Dunze this year, what
[21:01] Speaker 1: about a Dounsay's most likely outcome? You can't ignore that
[21:05] Speaker 1: when talking about a trade like this. You know, the
[21:08] Speaker 1: funny thing with all of this is that a Dunza
[21:10] Speaker 1: has a very very real shot to be someone I'm
[21:12] Speaker 1: aggressively targeting the season in redraft leagues because the price
[21:17] Speaker 1: is different. Cost is everything. Spending a wide receiver three
[21:21] Speaker 1: to wide receiver four pick and redraft on a young
[21:24] Speaker 1: and talented wide receiver who's getting the offensive scheme upgrade
[21:27] Speaker 1: and who does have an interesting ceiling. I'm gonna ignore
[21:30] Speaker 1: the floor case there.
[21:32] Speaker 2: All day long.
[21:33] Speaker 1: Give me the ceiling. That's all I care about. Dynasty
[21:37] Speaker 1: doesn't always work that way depending on your roster. My
[21:40] Speaker 1: roster was one where I wasn't in the business of
[21:43] Speaker 1: having a highly volatile asset, which is what I think
[21:46] Speaker 1: we've established. Roma Dunza is there's a high ceiling, but
[21:51] Speaker 1: if he doesn't produce this year, there's also a very
[21:53] Speaker 1: scary floor.
[21:55] Speaker 2: I had an out.
[21:57] Speaker 1: I had an opportunity to get an asset, a running
[21:59] Speaker 1: back asset who had a narrow range of outcomes, and
[22:02] Speaker 1: it would help my team more in the immediate.
[22:05] Speaker 2: Future for that team to compete now. So I made
[22:09] Speaker 2: the move.
[22:10] Speaker 1: And look, guys, not every trade you do has to
[22:14] Speaker 1: be lopsided, Like I think a Dounday for the one
[22:16] Speaker 1: oweight is just a fair trade on paper. That's why
[22:19] Speaker 1: I proposed it in the first place. I don't mess around.
[22:22] Speaker 1: I don't think there's a situation where it's like, give
[22:24] Speaker 1: me the one O eight side ninety five percent of
[22:26] Speaker 1: the time. Again, because I like to live in the
[22:30] Speaker 1: gray area. People see this trade and they see I
[22:34] Speaker 1: made an action. They assume because I made that action
[22:37] Speaker 1: that I think that Romadunsay is bad, or that you
[22:40] Speaker 1: should trade.
[22:41] Speaker 2: Him, or that he's some obvious cell candidate.
[22:44] Speaker 1: I mean, just read that comment about this being the
[22:47] Speaker 1: most divisive stance that I've ever taken. That couldn't be
[22:50] Speaker 1: further from the truth. My stance on a doonsday is
[22:54] Speaker 1: actually relatively neutral. I'm just recognizing that this could go
[22:58] Speaker 1: in many different directions. I'm recognizing that fantasy football is
[23:03] Speaker 1: in some black and white game, and you know what,
[23:06] Speaker 1: we may look back at this episode a year from
[23:08] Speaker 1: now and Romadunze might be the wide receiver seven in Dynasty.
[23:13] Speaker 1: He might have blown up in twenty twenty five, and
[23:15] Speaker 1: inevitably someone's gonna come after me, call me a moron,
[23:18] Speaker 1: and call me a loser. But guess what, that's a
[23:22] Speaker 1: result that happened among many that could have happened. In
[23:26] Speaker 1: that case, the ninety ninth percentile outcome would hit. And yeah,
[23:30] Speaker 1: that would suck for that one singular Dynasty roster where
[23:33] Speaker 1: I made that move. It sucks when that kind of
[23:35] Speaker 1: thing happens. I've made deals in the past where I
[23:38] Speaker 1: traded a player who in my mind had a very
[23:41] Speaker 1: low probability of hitting, and then that player hit and
[23:44] Speaker 1: you look back and you say, man, this roster would
[23:47] Speaker 1: have been so much better had I not made that move.
[23:51] Speaker 1: But when you made that move, you were simply playing probability.
[23:55] Speaker 1: You were looking at range of outcomes. You were living
[23:58] Speaker 1: in the gray area. That outcome is just sometimes what
[24:02] Speaker 1: happens in fantasy football. That's not the only action you're
[24:06] Speaker 1: ever going to take in this game. If your process
[24:09] Speaker 1: is sound, which I think this process is sound, then
[24:12] Speaker 1: you'll win out in the long run across all of
[24:15] Speaker 1: your actions. You know, the main reason you don't hear
[24:18] Speaker 1: me sit on this podcast or go on social media
[24:21] Speaker 1: victory lapping my hits is because of this. When an
[24:25] Speaker 1: analyst hits on some probability driven outcome, they're not totally
[24:28] Speaker 1: hitting on that prediction. One of my bigger wins from
[24:32] Speaker 1: a prospecting standpoint over the last five seasons or so
[24:35] Speaker 1: was with Isaiah Pichecko.
[24:37] Speaker 2: I was telling.
[24:37] Speaker 1: Readers and listeners to take him in their rookie drafts
[24:40] Speaker 1: that year. I sent a tweet when the Chiefs drafted
[24:43] Speaker 1: him that Pachecko was coming for Clyde Edwards Alaire's job.
[24:46] Speaker 2: I was half joking, but it was still crazy to
[24:49] Speaker 2: say at the time.
[24:50] Speaker 1: But if I actually nailed that prediction, I would have
[24:53] Speaker 1: ranked Pachecko as a first round rookie pick.
[24:56] Speaker 2: I wouldn't have said, hey, get him in round four as.
[24:59] Speaker 1: An afterthought, because no one else wants this guy, and
[25:01] Speaker 1: I think there's at least a chance that he hits,
[25:04] Speaker 1: because whether we see it or not, we inherently are
[25:07] Speaker 1: looking at this game through a lens of probability. It
[25:10] Speaker 1: would have been idiotic for me to take a late
[25:12] Speaker 1: day three running back as a first rounder in rookie
[25:15] Speaker 1: drafts because late day three picks rarely pan out, and
[25:20] Speaker 1: there were plenty of holes to Pacheco's profile. It just
[25:24] Speaker 1: so happened that the higher end of his range of
[25:26] Speaker 1: outcomes ended up hitting, and it's fun to celebrate when
[25:29] Speaker 1: those things happen. Why play fantasy football if you can't
[25:32] Speaker 1: have fun when these situations go down. There's just no
[25:36] Speaker 1: need to be obnoxious about it, to say, look at me,
[25:40] Speaker 1: I got this right because I'm a genius. Because there
[25:44] Speaker 1: were so many different possible outcomes for a player like
[25:47] Speaker 1: Isaiah Pachecko, there were so many ways for you to
[25:51] Speaker 1: not look like a genius. It's like when people sit
[25:54] Speaker 1: there and they say, told y'all when they're talking about
[25:56] Speaker 1: Pukinnakua no, you didn't. You absolutely did not tell people
[26:01] Speaker 1: that Puka Nakua would be one of the best rookie
[26:03] Speaker 1: wide receivers of all time. I liked Nikua too, he
[26:07] Speaker 1: was a late round dart throw in my draft guide
[26:09] Speaker 1: that year. But I wasn't sitting here saying that he
[26:12] Speaker 1: would give us wide receiver one production.
[26:14] Speaker 2: That's insane.
[26:16] Speaker 1: And just like there were a lot of outcomes for
[26:18] Speaker 1: Nicua and Pacheco, there are a lot of different outcomes
[26:21] Speaker 1: for Romadonsay, some of those outcomes will make me target
[26:25] Speaker 1: him in some leagues, while some of those outcomes will
[26:28] Speaker 1: make me want to trade him away. Because fantasy football
[26:32] Speaker 1: it's a game about probability, and since it's a game
[26:35] Speaker 1: about probability, you need to live in the gray area.

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