# 1112: Early-Season Schedule Analysis

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 28 Jul 2026, 17 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/17474dac-5864-4eef-ba8f-b494013da2c1/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

Getting off to a hot start in fantasy football can make all the difference. Not only does it help you stack early wins, but it also builds confidence in the players on your roster. On Episode 1112, JJ analyzes the NFL's early-season schedule to identify the players with the most favorable openings, as well as the ones facing the toughest starts to the season. Make sure to check out LateRound.com to order the 2026 Draft Guide. And while you're there, become a member! The new Members Hub is the place for rankings and tiers, data dumps, and more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacheris
[0:06] Speaker 1: J Zacher. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen in this
[0:14] Speaker 1: episode eleven twelve of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast.
[0:19] Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in to me. Fantasy football is about
[0:23] Speaker 1: finding small edges that come together and add up to
[0:26] Speaker 1: become a big edge. We look at certain metrics, we
[0:29] Speaker 1: have a specific process. We do things to give us
[0:32] Speaker 1: an edge of our competition. And one of those things,
[0:36] Speaker 1: albeit not the most important thing in the world, is
[0:38] Speaker 1: schedule analysis. It's looking at who our players might be
[0:41] Speaker 1: facing because we know that matchups are not irrelevant. I
[0:45] Speaker 1: do this episode every year on early season schedule analysis.
[0:49] Speaker 1: Like I said, it's not the end all, but I
[0:51] Speaker 1: focus on the early season stuff. Because number one, teams
[0:54] Speaker 1: are healthy, we have some idea as to what defenses
[0:58] Speaker 1: are gonna look like, Whereas if we did this before
[1:01] Speaker 1: the season, looking at like week fifteen or sixteen, we
[1:04] Speaker 1: might have some idea, but defenses are going to look
[1:07] Speaker 1: a lot different personnel wise because injuries happen and things change.
[1:12] Speaker 1: But number two, we want to have confidence in the
[1:14] Speaker 1: players that we draft, and we want to turn a
[1:17] Speaker 1: profit immediately. If your first round pick has a tough
[1:21] Speaker 1: early season schedule, and if he struggles, even if you
[1:24] Speaker 1: know those matchups were tough, you're still gonna have some doubts.
[1:28] Speaker 1: You ideally want to win and win right away, not
[1:32] Speaker 1: only in the win loss column, but you want your
[1:34] Speaker 1: players to increase in value so you can feel more
[1:37] Speaker 1: comfortable with what you have on your team, and in
[1:40] Speaker 1: more active leagues, you can then trade them for a profit.
[1:45] Speaker 1: So the idea with the analysis that I'm about to
[1:47] Speaker 1: get to is that it shouldn't be the sole decision
[1:49] Speaker 1: maker for you, but as a tiebreaker, as something to
[1:52] Speaker 1: at least keep in mind as you draft players, knowing
[1:55] Speaker 1: that you might need some backup if the player has
[1:57] Speaker 1: a tough schedule. I think it can be useful for that. Actually,
[2:01] Speaker 1: I know it can because it has in the past. Now,
[2:05] Speaker 1: before get into that analysis, just as a reminder, check
[2:08] Speaker 1: out the Late Round Draft Guide. It's well over two
[2:11] Speaker 1: hundred and seventy pages of content where I go through
[2:14] Speaker 1: game theory, I explain how to spot breakouts and bus
[2:16] Speaker 1: There's a section on players of target and avoid. There's
[2:19] Speaker 1: cheat sheets and so much more. You can order it
[2:22] Speaker 1: right now on lateround dot com, or you can become
[2:25] Speaker 1: an All Access member. If you're an All Access member,
[2:29] Speaker 1: you get access to not only the Draft Guide, but
[2:31] Speaker 1: the Prospect Guide too, alongside all the member perks like
[2:34] Speaker 1: discord access, rankings and tiers and more. You can learn
[2:38] Speaker 1: more about everything again over on the Lateround dot com.
[2:44] Speaker 1: I've said before on the show that Malik Willis is
[2:46] Speaker 1: the easiest pick to make in season long leagues this year.
[2:48] Speaker 1: Not necessarily best ball, but season long, yes, because if
[2:53] Speaker 1: he's terrible and we see that he's terrible, you can
[2:56] Speaker 1: make a move and start streaming as your worst case scenario.
[3:00] Speaker 1: Or you just draft Molik Willis in another quarterback this
[3:03] Speaker 1: year to increase your odds with hitting on one of them.
[3:07] Speaker 1: Maybe pair them with a more stable piece like Brock
[3:09] Speaker 1: Purty or something. Willis showed off some upside in a
[3:13] Speaker 1: small sample in Green Bay, But this episode it's not
[3:15] Speaker 1: about digging into why you should be into him. I'm
[3:18] Speaker 1: bringing him up because there's something a little extra to
[3:20] Speaker 1: get excited about. Miami has a really favorable schedule to
[3:24] Speaker 1: open up the season. Willis could actually get off to
[3:27] Speaker 1: a hot start. Miami opens the season against the Raiders,
[3:30] Speaker 1: then they get the forty nine Ers, Chiefs, Vikings, Bengals,
[3:34] Speaker 1: a bye week, and then the Jets. Now I'll be
[3:37] Speaker 1: referencing the secondary rankings on today's show from Sharp Football Analysis,
[3:42] Speaker 1: just to have something objective to share with you guys.
[3:45] Speaker 1: And according to those rankings, five of those six opponents
[3:48] Speaker 1: ranked twenty third or worse in pass defense entering the year.
[3:52] Speaker 1: The one team who ranks higher than that is Minnesota.
[3:56] Speaker 1: Minnesota ranks sixteenth according to those rankings. That means Miami
[4:00] Speaker 1: he doesn't have a super tough opponent in terms of
[4:01] Speaker 1: pass defense across their first six games, and we know
[4:05] Speaker 1: Miami they might lean run heavy, but like I said,
[4:08] Speaker 1: in that stretch of games they get the forty nine Ers,
[4:10] Speaker 1: the Chiefs, and the Bengals, those are games where they
[4:14] Speaker 1: might be forced to throw the ball a little bit more.
[4:16] Speaker 1: We don't know what this pass catching room is going
[4:18] Speaker 1: to look like for the Dolphins, but I do think
[4:21] Speaker 1: that this should make you feel a little bit more
[4:22] Speaker 1: comfortable in drafting Maleik Willis this year. We know the
[4:25] Speaker 1: upside is present and there's not that much in the
[4:28] Speaker 1: way in terms of schedule. Denver has a really tough
[4:33] Speaker 1: schedule to open up the season. They get the Chiefs
[4:35] Speaker 1: in Week one. Then it's the Jags, the Rams, the
[4:38] Speaker 1: forty nine Ers, the Chargers, and then the Seahawks. That
[4:41] Speaker 1: is absolutely brutal. Five of those six teams have win
[4:45] Speaker 1: totals above ten. I do think there's high scoring potential
[4:49] Speaker 1: in some of those contests, but I think that we
[4:51] Speaker 1: should be cognizant of the fact that Denver has a
[4:53] Speaker 1: real shot to hit some negative game scripts through this stretch.
[4:57] Speaker 1: And if that's the case, I'm looking at that backfield
[5:00] Speaker 1: and it makes me a little bit more fearful about JK. Dobbins.
[5:03] Speaker 1: Dobbins played fewer than fifteen percent of the Broncos long
[5:06] Speaker 1: down and distant snaps last year, and he was on
[5:09] Speaker 1: the field for fewer than thirty percent of the team's
[5:11] Speaker 1: two minute snaps. Now, we don't know exactly how some
[5:14] Speaker 1: of that work is going to be divided this year.
[5:17] Speaker 1: There's a slightly different look to that backfield. But if
[5:20] Speaker 1: the Broncos end up trailing in any of those games,
[5:23] Speaker 1: I do think we run into the risk of Dobbins
[5:25] Speaker 1: being game scripted out. Now, I personally am not been
[5:28] Speaker 1: that high on Dobbins this year because if I'm grabbing
[5:31] Speaker 1: an early down back. I'd rather just wait and get
[5:34] Speaker 1: someone like Jordan Mason or maybe even Chris Rodriguez. They
[5:38] Speaker 1: go a lot later on the major platforms. And there's
[5:41] Speaker 1: another reason why I'm more out than in on Dobbins
[5:44] Speaker 1: this year. I'm bullish on the Jags this year. I
[5:49] Speaker 1: love that offense, but I do have to admit that
[5:52] Speaker 1: facing Cleveland, Denver, and New England to kick off the
[5:54] Speaker 1: year won't be the easiest thing for the passing offense
[5:57] Speaker 1: to face. They get a slight break in Week four
[6:00] Speaker 1: against Cincinnati, but then it's Philly and Houston right after that.
[6:04] Speaker 1: For context, Sharp Football has five of those first six
[6:07] Speaker 1: opponents as having top ten secondaries in football entering the season. Now,
[6:11] Speaker 1: I don't think this is necessarily a death sentence for
[6:13] Speaker 1: the team's passing attack, especially considering the Jags have team
[6:16] Speaker 1: totals of twenty to twenty four point five in each
[6:20] Speaker 1: of those games according to draftings. With that being said,
[6:23] Speaker 1: we're not getting the huge team total spikes that we've
[6:26] Speaker 1: got for them post by. The first six games for
[6:29] Speaker 1: the Jags have an average team total of twenty two
[6:32] Speaker 1: point two. Their next five games are twenty four point six,
[6:36] Speaker 1: so two and a half points higher, which when it
[6:39] Speaker 1: comes to probability, median outcomes and team totals, that's not
[6:43] Speaker 1: insignificant at all. So be aware of this as you're
[6:47] Speaker 1: drafting Jags this year. It's not making me off of them.
[6:50] Speaker 1: I still like the Jags passing attack. It's just that
[6:53] Speaker 1: we might have an opportunity to buy after that. Week
[6:56] Speaker 1: seven by Jamiir Gibbs is my I one toh one
[7:00] Speaker 1: this year? In my goodness, the Lions could just smash
[7:04] Speaker 1: in general this year offensively. Let me read the matchups
[7:07] Speaker 1: for Detroit to start the year Saints Bills, Jets, Panthers,
[7:13] Speaker 1: Cardinals Bye Week. Not only are those four very winnable
[7:17] Speaker 1: games where we could end up seeing positive game scripts,
[7:20] Speaker 1: but that game against Buffalo has a chance to be
[7:22] Speaker 1: high scoring two. Detroit's schedule, according to win totals, is
[7:26] Speaker 1: actually the easiest in all of football this year, like
[7:29] Speaker 1: across the season, and while we'd want more of a
[7:32] Speaker 1: back and forth nature from a game script perspective, we
[7:35] Speaker 1: know that implied team totals can at least give us
[7:37] Speaker 1: some idea of how well an offense is gonna perform.
[7:41] Speaker 1: And Detroit doesn't have a single matchup where their implied
[7:44] Speaker 1: team total right now today is under twenty four points.
[7:48] Speaker 1: They're the only team in football where that's the case.
[7:52] Speaker 1: That's good news for everyone in that offense. With this
[7:55] Speaker 1: being about early season schedules, it doesn't get that much
[7:58] Speaker 1: better for a player like Gibbs than this Saints, Bills, Jets, Panthers,
[8:02] Speaker 1: and Cardinals. We may not see as much passing volume,
[8:07] Speaker 1: but I'm expecting a great start for this Lions run game.
[8:13] Speaker 1: The Chargers have a really interesting schedule this year. It's
[8:15] Speaker 1: like a parabola. The first two weeks are great. They
[8:18] Speaker 1: face the Cardinals and Raiders, Helloa, mari and Hampton. But
[8:21] Speaker 1: then after that two week stretch you get the Bills, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, Texans,
[8:26] Speaker 1: and Ravens. Brutal. After that, though, it's the Jets, Patriots, Bucks, Raiders,
[8:34] Speaker 1: forty nine, Ers, Dolphins, and Chiefs. Some tougher matchups in there,
[8:37] Speaker 1: for sure, but it's not nearly as bad as that
[8:40] Speaker 1: middle season stretch. So what does this all mean? Well,
[8:43] Speaker 1: I don't think you need to necessarily draft Chargers any
[8:46] Speaker 1: differently than you already have been, but I do think
[8:49] Speaker 1: that after Week two we may have a cell opportunity
[8:52] Speaker 1: if your fantasy team's like zero to two with someone
[8:54] Speaker 1: like a mari and Hampton or even Justin Herbert. Just
[8:58] Speaker 1: because that post week two stretch is really tough, it's
[9:01] Speaker 1: at least something to keep in mind. If we're entering
[9:03] Speaker 1: Week three and we're saying omar and Hampton's a league winner,
[9:06] Speaker 1: I wouldn't ignore who they were facing, though I do
[9:09] Speaker 1: like a Mario and Hampton this year. So the TLD
[9:12] Speaker 1: are here. Draft Chargers as you've been drafting them. Be
[9:15] Speaker 1: prepared for a lot of points in weeks one and two,
[9:18] Speaker 1: but then also be prepared for potential decision after those
[9:21] Speaker 1: weeks are over. Fortunately, we don't have to really worry
[9:24] Speaker 1: about that right now. The Bills open up their season
[9:29] Speaker 1: against the Texans, the Lions, the Chargers, the Patriots, and
[9:32] Speaker 1: the Rams. That's really tough. Not only do we have
[9:35] Speaker 1: some teams in there that could be tough defensively, but
[9:38] Speaker 1: clearly all of those teams have pretty strong win totals.
[9:41] Speaker 1: In fact, only Houston's below ten wins, and they clearly
[9:45] Speaker 1: have one of the best defenses in the game. The
[9:47] Speaker 1: Bills are good themselves, so it doesn't mean that they
[9:49] Speaker 1: are a lock to be in a bad game script.
[9:52] Speaker 1: With that being said, if they do find themselves in
[9:54] Speaker 1: that situation, James Cook becomes a little bit riskier, largely
[9:59] Speaker 1: because last year year, including the playoffs, Cook played fewer
[10:02] Speaker 1: than ten percent of the Bills long down and distant snaps,
[10:05] Speaker 1: and he played fewer than thirty percent of their two
[10:07] Speaker 1: minute snaps. Now, there have been reports of them using
[10:10] Speaker 1: him more in the passing game this year, which would
[10:13] Speaker 1: really push him into more elite fantasy football territory. If
[10:16] Speaker 1: that's the case, and he's already been awesome because we
[10:19] Speaker 1: typically see him under that ten percent target share, that's
[10:22] Speaker 1: going to give his profile a lot more stability. But
[10:26] Speaker 1: do be aware that there's at least some chance for
[10:29] Speaker 1: the Bill's offense to not have the best rushing numbers
[10:31] Speaker 1: over the first five weeks of the season. I don't
[10:33] Speaker 1: think it's as big of a deal because the Bills
[10:35] Speaker 1: themselves are good, like I said, and they can easily
[10:38] Speaker 1: flip these scripts. We're not talking about a bad team
[10:42] Speaker 1: with this kind of schedule, but it's something to keep
[10:44] Speaker 1: in mind, specifically with James Cook. A very similar situation
[10:50] Speaker 1: exists with the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards open their season
[10:53] Speaker 1: against the Chargers, Seahawks, and forty nine Ers, three teams
[10:57] Speaker 1: with high wind totals, and the Cardinals could very easily
[11:00] Speaker 1: be the worst team in football now. Arizona's not the
[11:03] Speaker 1: easiest team to figure out this year. They threw more
[11:06] Speaker 1: than any other team last season. The defense still projects
[11:08] Speaker 1: to be pretty bad, putting them in negative game scripts.
[11:11] Speaker 1: But it's not always easy to project the same type
[11:13] Speaker 1: of scripts year over year, especially when there's turnover, there's
[11:18] Speaker 1: a new coaching staff, there's a brand new system. It's
[11:22] Speaker 1: just not as simple as looking at last season numbers
[11:24] Speaker 1: and converting them to this year. On top of that,
[11:27] Speaker 1: the Cardinals spent their top five pick on Jeremiah Love,
[11:31] Speaker 1: so they probably at least want to run the ball
[11:32] Speaker 1: a little bit more year over year, but they could
[11:36] Speaker 1: struggle to do that to start the year with these matchups.
[11:39] Speaker 1: And what's specifically interesting about this dynamic, in my opinion,
[11:42] Speaker 1: is the Tyler Aljear Jeremiah Loves split to open up
[11:46] Speaker 1: the season. I think we could all see a scenario
[11:48] Speaker 1: where Arizona splits their backfield a little bit more at
[11:51] Speaker 1: the beginning of the season compared to the end of
[11:53] Speaker 1: the season. To get Love acclimated to the game and
[11:56] Speaker 1: to ease him in. But the projection for this backfield
[12:00] Speaker 1: is that Love's gonna do more as a pass catcher
[12:02] Speaker 1: than Tyler Algier. But what happens if they hit a
[12:05] Speaker 1: negative game script early on in the season. Is this
[12:07] Speaker 1: gonna make Algier just not viable whatsoever? I think that's
[12:12] Speaker 1: a reasonable question to ask if you're gonna draft Tyler
[12:14] Speaker 1: Algeer this year and manage season long leagues. I personally
[12:18] Speaker 1: don't think it's a worthwhile bet when there are still
[12:20] Speaker 1: players in his range who can naturally carve out pretty
[12:24] Speaker 1: big roles in their offenses, and with a schedule being
[12:27] Speaker 1: what it is to start the year, you're probably looking
[12:29] Speaker 1: at him being a touchdown dependent option. That's not what
[12:32] Speaker 1: I want to bank on in a situation like this.
[12:35] Speaker 1: But if those negative game scripts do hit, which I
[12:38] Speaker 1: would imagine they do given this schedule, we could see
[12:41] Speaker 1: the Cardinals kick off the year with a lot of
[12:43] Speaker 1: passing volume. And to be honest, Arizona might still see
[12:46] Speaker 1: a lot of passing volume this year because through the
[12:49] Speaker 1: lens of win totals, no team has a harder schedule
[12:52] Speaker 1: than Arizona this season. Now look, I do expect some
[12:55] Speaker 1: regression on the passing front, like despite the fact that
[12:58] Speaker 1: this schedule is really hard and the chaos of potentially
[13:01] Speaker 1: using Carson Beck at some point this year later in
[13:03] Speaker 1: the season. Probably that's also scary for the pass catchers
[13:07] Speaker 1: in this offense. But projection wise, they still look like
[13:10] Speaker 1: a team with ok passing volume. Just be aware of
[13:13] Speaker 1: those first three weeks could be pretty tough for them.
[13:16] Speaker 1: Before that Giants game in Week four. The Ravens have
[13:21] Speaker 1: high implied team totals throughout the season. That's no surprise.
[13:24] Speaker 1: Lamar Jacksons their quarterback, and while we usually get excited
[13:27] Speaker 1: for Dereck Henry towards the end of the season when
[13:29] Speaker 1: he always seems to come through, there's a very very
[13:32] Speaker 1: real chance that we get great game scripts for Baltimore
[13:35] Speaker 1: and Derrick Henry to start the year. Henry rarely plays
[13:40] Speaker 1: long down and distance snaps in two minute snaps. Last year,
[13:43] Speaker 1: those numbers were just twelve and ten percent according to
[13:46] Speaker 1: Fantasy Life data. We know this. It's why his route
[13:49] Speaker 1: share is only in that thirty to thirty five percent range.
[13:52] Speaker 1: He's just a totally different type of running back, a
[13:55] Speaker 1: totally different type of player. He's an outlier. He defies
[13:58] Speaker 1: all pass catching trends, but that might not matter. To
[14:02] Speaker 1: start the year. Listen to this Ravens schedule Week one
[14:06] Speaker 1: against Indianapolis. Okay, not necessarily the easiest matchup on Earth,
[14:10] Speaker 1: but Baltimore is a road favorite. Then it's the Saints
[14:13] Speaker 1: in Baltimore, the Cowboys, Titans, Falcons, Brown's Bengals. We're looking
[14:20] Speaker 1: at great matchups for Derrick Henry and positive game scripts
[14:24] Speaker 1: littered throughout that stretch. I'd anticipate that whole offense getting
[14:28] Speaker 1: off to a strong start, but Henry he could be
[14:31] Speaker 1: the one who benefits most. Lastly, since we're talking about
[14:36] Speaker 1: schedule analysis here, I want to throw out some potential
[14:38] Speaker 1: defensive streaming options to kick off your season. The target
[14:41] Speaker 1: in your drafts, the Chargers should be your go to.
[14:45] Speaker 1: They get Arizona in Week one, and then they get
[14:48] Speaker 1: Vegas in week two. It doesn't get much better than that.
[14:52] Speaker 1: There really aren't many other teams with totally clean week
[14:55] Speaker 1: one and two matchups. Green Bay gets Minnesota, probably Kyler
[14:59] Speaker 1: Murray in Week one, but that's still more of like
[15:01] Speaker 1: a whatever type of matchup it's in Minnesota. Just know
[15:05] Speaker 1: that Green Bay in week two they get the Jets.
[15:08] Speaker 1: But outside the Chargers, if you're looking for a defensive
[15:10] Speaker 1: streamer for weeks one and two, for me, it's probably Philadelphia.
[15:15] Speaker 1: They get Washington in week one and then Tennessee in
[15:18] Speaker 1: week two. And if you're only looking at week one,
[15:21] Speaker 1: the Jags are seven and a half point favorites against
[15:25] Speaker 1: Cleveland and it's in Jacksonville. So that's my Week one
[15:28] Speaker 1: streaming choice in a game with just a forty and
[15:30] Speaker 1: a half point total. But that's it. Like I said,
[15:33] Speaker 1: the early season schedule analysis, it's not the end all,
[15:36] Speaker 1: but it definitely can be used to help settle tie breakers,
[15:39] Speaker 1: and to be honest, it can be used to help
[15:41] Speaker 1: us understand what narratives might be floating out there once
[15:44] Speaker 1: we're in the thick of it, and once these teams
[15:47] Speaker 1: have played a few games. We have to find as
[15:50] Speaker 1: many edges as we can in schedule analysis. It's one
[15:53] Speaker 1: of those edges. That's it for today's show, though, thanks
[15:56] Speaker 1: Solvy for listening. If yet subscribe to the Late Round
[15:59] Speaker 1: Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are brush searching for
[16:02] Speaker 1: it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't
[16:04] Speaker 1: forget to follow me on Twitter. And on Blue Sky
[16:07] Speaker 1: at Late Round QB, thanks for listening everyone. We got
[16:10] Speaker 1: Becoming a Best ball bro later in the week. We
[16:12] Speaker 1: got the Late Round Fantasy Football show later in the week,
[16:14] Speaker 1: and then at the end of the week you get
[16:16] Speaker 1: a mailback episode. I'll catch you guys soon

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