# 1149: 15 Transactions for Week 8

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 27 Oct 2026, 21 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/7a8c74a7-2abf-4da3-8eb5-b4ef01211694/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

JJ talks about Tony Pollard, Jonah Coleman, Caleb Douglas, and more on this week's 15 Transactions episode. Make sure to check out LateRound.com to become a member! The new Members Hub is the place for rankings and tiers, data dumps, and more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:02] Speaker 1: This is the Late Round Podcast with your host, J.J. Zacharyson.
[0:11] Speaker 1: What's up, everyone? It's J.J. Zacharyson.
[0:14] Speaker 2: In this episode 1149 of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast,
[0:18] Speaker 2: thanks for tuning in. Before I get to the 15
[0:21] Speaker 2: transactions this week, I want to let you guys know,
[0:23] Speaker 2: remind you guys about the Data Dump Show on the
[0:26] Speaker 2: Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel. Every Monday morning at
[0:29] Speaker 2: 11 a.m. Eastern, Brandon Gadula and David Kitchen, they're going
[0:32] Speaker 2: to be live on the channel talking about all the
[0:34] Speaker 2: week's major injuries, usage trends, and more. It's exclusively on YouTube,
[0:39] Speaker 2: so make sure you subscribe to the channel, youtube.com slash
[0:43] Speaker 2: at late round FF. Add or buy Jonah Coleman. So
[0:49] Speaker 2: we talked about Jonah Coleman last week. And really, I
[0:52] Speaker 2: talked about Jonah Coleman all summer long. Week seven, though,
[0:55] Speaker 2: really confirmed a lot of my priors. Jonah Coleman is
[0:59] Speaker 2: looking like the player that you want out of this backfield.
[1:02] Speaker 2: Now to be clear, I think the likely outcome here
[1:04] Speaker 2: is that Denver is going to have a committee. It's
[1:06] Speaker 2: going to be a three-headed rotation. RJ Harvey is the
[1:09] Speaker 2: primary pass catcher. JK Dobbins, he's an early down grinder.
[1:13] Speaker 2: Jonah Coleman, he falls somewhere in between. But if there's
[1:16] Speaker 2: one player who could emerge from this backfield, I think
[1:19] Speaker 2: it's definitely Jonah Coleman. Against the Cardinals, not only was
[1:23] Speaker 2: he the most productive back, but Coleman out-snapped the other
[1:26] Speaker 2: two running backs combined 28-26. And that was coming off
[1:30] Speaker 2: of IR. He saw the most work on the ground,
[1:33] Speaker 2: and he ran just two fewer routes than RJ Harvey.
[1:36] Speaker 1: J.K.
[1:36] Speaker 2: Dobbins ran one route. In this situation, it's even more
[1:40] Speaker 2: interesting when you look at the schedule. According to adjusted
[1:43] Speaker 2: fantasy points allowed, the numbers that we have over on lateround.com,
[1:46] Speaker 2: Denver has the easiest remaining schedule for running backs in
[1:49] Speaker 2: the entire league. That includes decent matchups against the Raiders
[1:52] Speaker 2: and the Bills during the first two weeks of the
[1:54] Speaker 2: fantasy playoffs.
[1:56] Speaker 1: So considering J.K. Dobbins and R.J.
[1:57] Speaker 2: Harvey, they were the ones who found the end zone
[1:59] Speaker 2: in Week 7, maybe there's a chance you can still
[2:02] Speaker 2: buy relatively low on Jonah Coleman. Most fantasy managers probably
[2:06] Speaker 2: don't want to deal with the uncertainty of this backfield anyway.
[2:09] Speaker 2: And if Coleman's still on your waiver wire, you have
[2:12] Speaker 2: to add him. You should have been doing that last week.
[2:14] Speaker 2: But to me, Jonah Coleman is one of those perfect
[2:17] Speaker 2: players to have on your bench to throw in your
[2:19] Speaker 2: flex at times, and then eventually something bigger could come.
[2:25] Speaker 2: Sell Tony Pollard. So look, I want to give credit
[2:28] Speaker 2: where credit is due. Tony Pollard has not been that
[2:31] Speaker 2: bad this year, at least as a real football player.
[2:34] Speaker 2: Among running backs with 50 or more carries, Pollard ranks
[2:37] Speaker 2: above average in success rate. He's top 15 in yards
[2:40] Speaker 2: after contact per attempt. I'm just having a really hard
[2:43] Speaker 2: time buying into what Pollard did against the Browns on Sunday.
[2:47] Speaker 2: It was the first time he got over 14 PPR
[2:49] Speaker 2: points in a game this season. He finished with 36.5.
[2:54] Speaker 2: His peripherals were there. He had a 74% snap share,
[2:57] Speaker 2: an 83% rush share, and a 36% route share. But
[3:01] Speaker 2: we need to recognize a few things. Number one, Tajay
[3:04] Speaker 2: Spears was sidelined. He's been dealing with a knee injury,
[3:08] Speaker 2: and that's why Pollard's playing time has spiked recently. After
[3:11] Speaker 2: averaging a 53% snap share over his first five weeks,
[3:14] Speaker 2: Pollard has been on the field for 76% and 74%
[3:16] Speaker 2: of Tennessee's snaps over his last two games. With Spears
[3:21] Speaker 2: banged up, Pollard's snap shares jumped by roughly 20 percentage points.
[3:25] Speaker 2: His route share has increased by 12 percentage points. There's
[3:29] Speaker 2: also the fact that Pollard just really outperformed expectation in
[3:32] Speaker 2: Week 7. According to our model at Late Round Fantasy Football,
[3:36] Speaker 2: his workload was worth an incredible 24.3 expected PPR points
[3:40] Speaker 2: against Cleveland. He still managed to outpace that number by 12.2.
[3:46] Speaker 2: And then of course, there's the Tennessee offense. Week 7
[3:49] Speaker 2: was the first time that Tennessee scored more than two
[3:51] Speaker 2: offensive touchdowns in a game this year. They've done that
[3:54] Speaker 2: four times since the start of the 2025 season. Two
[3:57] Speaker 2: of those four instances came against Cleveland. As we know,
[4:02] Speaker 2: this offensive environment, it's not that great. And as a
[4:05] Speaker 2: cherry on top, Tennessee has an unfavorable rest of season
[4:08] Speaker 2: schedule according to adjusted fantasy points allowed. So we're looking
[4:11] Speaker 2: at a running back whose recent workload has benefited from
[4:14] Speaker 2: an injured teammate, whose fantasy production significantly exceeded expectation, and
[4:19] Speaker 2: whose offense isn't really that trustworthy. So if you have
[4:22] Speaker 2: Tony Pollard, now might be the time to sell. Add
[4:27] Speaker 2: Caleb Douglas. Caleb Douglas hadn't been on the field since
[4:31] Speaker 2: Week 2 before facing the Jets in Week 7. And
[4:34] Speaker 2: he finished that game with 21 PPR points. It was
[4:37] Speaker 2: a season high for any Dolphins wide receiver. He scored
[4:40] Speaker 2: twice while having 70 receiving yards. Now, to be fair,
[4:44] Speaker 2: he had somewhat of a mediocre 71% route share. That's
[4:47] Speaker 2: not great at wide receiver. And his target share was
[4:50] Speaker 2: just 14%. Even still, within a limited sample, Douglas has
[4:54] Speaker 2: been good this year. He's definitely exceeded my expectations. He's
[4:58] Speaker 2: scored more than 14 PPR points in two of his
[5:00] Speaker 2: three games, and his 2.54 yards per outrun rate, it's
[5:04] Speaker 2: easily best on this Miami Dolphins team. We obviously can't
[5:08] Speaker 2: expect touchdowns to keep coming at that kind of rate,
[5:10] Speaker 2: especially given his peripherals. But when a rookie starts showing
[5:14] Speaker 2: some legitimate flashes, as I say all the time, you
[5:17] Speaker 2: don't want to leave him sitting on the waiver wire.
[5:20] Speaker 2: And Douglas is definitely showing us something. Buy Roma Dunze.
[5:26] Speaker 2: There's a lot of negative vibes surrounding Roma Dunze. Most
[5:30] Speaker 2: football watchers, they've seen him make some big drops this season.
[5:34] Speaker 2: And he's been outperformed by Luther Burden and Colston Loveland.
[5:37] Speaker 2: Now look, as you guys know, I'm a Burden truther.
[5:41] Speaker 2: There's no chance I'm going to sit on this podcast
[5:43] Speaker 2: and say that Rome Adunze is going to be better
[5:44] Speaker 2: than Bird and rest of season as a fantasy asset.
[5:47] Speaker 2: That's not what this is about. What it is about
[5:49] Speaker 2: is perception versus reality. I don't think those two things
[5:53] Speaker 2: are aligned with Adunze. Adunze sees a lot of the
[5:56] Speaker 2: tougher looks in the Chicago offense. On the season, 42%
[6:00] Speaker 2: of his targets have traveled 15 or more air yards.
[6:03] Speaker 2: That ranks fourth highest among the 52 wide receivers with
[6:06] Speaker 2: 30 or more targets this season. That's pre-Monday Night Football.
[6:10] Speaker 2: that kind of route tree is going to bring a
[6:12] Speaker 2: little bit more volatility. While players like Luther Burden, Colston Loveland,
[6:16] Speaker 2: they're going to win more frequently underneath. They're probably going
[6:19] Speaker 2: to be more consistent. That volatility is part of the
[6:23] Speaker 2: reason why Adunze's production hasn't really been there this year.
[6:26] Speaker 2: But there are some reasons for optimism, at least relative
[6:29] Speaker 2: to how the market views him. For one, the schedule
[6:32] Speaker 2: is really nice for the Chicago wide receiver room. It's
[6:35] Speaker 2: the second best rest of season schedule according to our
[6:37] Speaker 2: adjusted fantasy points allowed numbers. And no team has a
[6:40] Speaker 2: better playoff schedule. Guys, the Bears face the Bills, Packers,
[6:44] Speaker 2: and Lions weeks 15 through 17. And we shouldn't overlook
[6:48] Speaker 2: this Cole Komet injury either. Komet's now out for the year.
[6:52] Speaker 2: His absence should force Chicago to run fewer plays out
[6:56] Speaker 2: of 12 and 13 personnel. Yes, they do have rookie
[6:59] Speaker 2: Sam Rauch. He's going to fill in. but Komet is
[7:02] Speaker 2: a really underrated and useful player. We can't assume that
[7:06] Speaker 2: transition is going to be flawless. On the season, Chicago's
[7:09] Speaker 2: run 18% of their offensive plays out of 13 personnel
[7:13] Speaker 2: and 33% out of 12 personnel. Both of those rates
[7:17] Speaker 2: rank in the top five across the league. On 91
[7:21] Speaker 2: routes out of 12 and 13 personnel, Adunze's commanded just
[7:24] Speaker 2: a 14% target share. But when the Bears are in 11,
[7:28] Speaker 2: when there are three wide receivers on the field, that
[7:30] Speaker 2: number jumps to 19.4%. And yes, for the record, no
[7:35] Speaker 2: Cole Komet should definitely help Luther Burton. This is not
[7:39] Speaker 2: just a Roma-Dunze thing. But the bottom line here is
[7:42] Speaker 2: that there's a very real chance you can just send
[7:43] Speaker 2: an unusable bench asset for Roma-Dunze right now. Like a
[7:47] Speaker 2: player who might get you a little bit more production,
[7:49] Speaker 2: but doesn't have the same kind of ceiling. And given
[7:51] Speaker 2: how this offense could evolve, them running a little bit
[7:54] Speaker 2: more 11 personnel, along with their favorable upcoming schedule, I
[7:58] Speaker 2: think trading for Adunze right now, when he's at a
[8:00] Speaker 2: true low point, not a bad idea. Add Bam Knight.
[8:06] Speaker 2: So look, I don't know how long Jeremiah Love is
[8:09] Speaker 2: going to be sidelined at this point. On last week's
[8:11] Speaker 2: Late Round Perspectives episode, I talked to Dr.
[8:13] Speaker 1: Chona.
[8:14] Speaker 2: He thinks that Week 9 is a little bit more
[8:15] Speaker 2: likely for Jeremiah Love than Week 8.
[8:18] Speaker 1: That means there's a.
[8:19] Speaker 2: Chance that we get one more week of this backfield
[8:21] Speaker 2: in Arizona being Tyler Algier and Bam Knight. And let's
[8:24] Speaker 2: just be real, Bam Knight has outperformed Tyler Algier over
[8:28] Speaker 2: the last couple of weeks. Algier has 26 carries, Bam
[8:31] Speaker 2: Knight has 22. But Knight has 128 rushing yards and
[8:33] Speaker 2: Algier has 57. Knights led Algier in 10-plus yard run rate,
[8:40] Speaker 2: 20-plus yard run rate, yards after contact per attempt, and
[8:43] Speaker 2: they have comparable success rates. And in Week 7, we
[8:46] Speaker 2: saw their receiving usage flip. Knight ran more routes than
[8:50] Speaker 2: Tyler Algier. This is all relevant because next week they
[8:54] Speaker 2: get Dallas. If Love is still sidelined, Knight could be
[8:58] Speaker 2: a viable flex option. It's a favorable matchup. And who knows,
[9:02] Speaker 2: maybe given the performance, we might even see a bigger
[9:04] Speaker 2: role for Bam Knight. Buy Justin Jefferson. So Justin Jefferson's
[9:11] Speaker 2: kind of had a disappointing season. He's at 14.4 PPR
[9:15] Speaker 2: points per game. And after another down performance against a
[9:17] Speaker 2: relatively beatable Colts defense, fantasy managers, they're probably wondering what.
[9:22] Speaker 1: To do with him.
[9:23] Speaker 2: Especially because of Minnesota's quarterback situation. But my advice is
[9:27] Speaker 2: to buy. We know Jefferson can bring the goods, and
[9:31] Speaker 2: his underlying peripherals are actually pretty encouraging. If you take
[9:34] Speaker 2: away his Week 3 matchup where he was injured early...
[9:37] Speaker 2: Jefferson's actually averaging 16.7 PPR points per game. He has
[9:42] Speaker 2: a 30.5% target share in games where he's been active.
[9:45] Speaker 2: His yards per outrun is 2.37. Those are all very
[9:49] Speaker 2: strong numbers. And then, of course, there's the schedule. According
[9:53] Speaker 2: to our Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed numbers, Minnesota has faced
[9:56] Speaker 2: a bottom 10 schedule for wide receivers to start the season.
[10:00] Speaker 2: From here on out though, they have a top five
[10:02] Speaker 2: schedule and no team has more top 10 matchups for
[10:05] Speaker 2: wide receivers the rest of the season. So while quarterback,
[10:08] Speaker 2: while it's not ideal with Kyler Murray, Justin Jefferson's talent,
[10:12] Speaker 2: his opportunity, it hasn't gone anywhere. And with the schedule
[10:15] Speaker 2: getting a lot easier, there's reason to believe that better
[10:18] Speaker 2: fantasy production is coming. Add Antonio Williams and Chigaconquo. I
[10:25] Speaker 2: typically only repeat an ad transaction for one of two reasons.
[10:28] Speaker 2: Either the player had a can't-miss performance after being recommended
[10:31] Speaker 2: as an ad, or that player's percent roster number just
[10:34] Speaker 2: hasn't shifted nearly enough after that initial recommendation. Now, considering
[10:39] Speaker 2: the Commanders were off last week with a buy, this
[10:41] Speaker 2: is obviously about the latter. The former would be more
[10:44] Speaker 2: like Omar Cooper, who, by the way, he's not on
[10:47] Speaker 2: today's list, but if he's still out there, you should
[10:49] Speaker 2: be adding him.
[10:50] Speaker 1: But back to Okonkwo and Williams. We talked about them
[10:53] Speaker 1: last week.
[10:54] Speaker 2: There's no Terry McLaurin, and in their last game when
[10:56] Speaker 2: McLaurin went down, Okonkwo had an impressive 78% route share
[11:01] Speaker 2: and 22% target share. Meanwhile, no wide receiver in Washington
[11:05] Speaker 2: ran more routes than Antonio Williams after that injury. Now
[11:09] Speaker 2: you can look at Trelon Burks too. You gotta monitor
[11:11] Speaker 2: his health. He'll factor into this equation too. But Okonkwo
[11:14] Speaker 2: could provide some stability at an unstable position. Williams, he's
[11:18] Speaker 2: more of an unknown. But with that uncertainty, comes some
[11:22] Speaker 2: serious upside. Like I've said before many times on this show,
[11:26] Speaker 2: Ladd-McConkie was a top comp for Antonio Williams in this
[11:30] Speaker 2: year's ZAP model. But basically, both Chigaconquo and Antonio Williams,
[11:35] Speaker 2: they need to be rostered in far more leagues. Sell
[11:39] Speaker 2: Quinshawn Judkins. Look, Quinshawn Judkins had a good week seven.
[11:43] Speaker 2: He carried the ball 17 times. He found the end
[11:45] Speaker 2: zone twice. He finished the day averaging 5.6 yards per carry.
[11:50] Speaker 2: And that's exactly why he's a sell. Week 7 was
[11:54] Speaker 2: the first time that Quinshawn Judkins rushed for more than
[11:56] Speaker 2: 4 yards per carry in a game since week 5
[11:59] Speaker 2: of last season. And while his peripherals weren't terrible, they
[12:03] Speaker 2: weren't amazingly encouraging either. Dylan Sampson was back in the mix.
[12:08] Speaker 2: And with him back, Judkins saw his lowest snap share
[12:10] Speaker 2: of the season. And his 3% target share against Tennessee,
[12:14] Speaker 2: that was also a season low. According to our expected
[12:17] Speaker 2: fantasy points model, Judkins outperformed expectation by 11.9 PPR points
[12:22] Speaker 2: this past week. He scored 23.4 points when his workload
[12:26] Speaker 2: suggested he should have been closer to 11.5. And when
[12:29] Speaker 2: you look at rest of season schedules, there's nothing special
[12:32] Speaker 2: about Cleveland's running back schedule. So we're looking at a
[12:35] Speaker 2: running back who hasn't been that efficient, who was efficient
[12:38] Speaker 2: in week seven. I don't know if we can just
[12:40] Speaker 2: assume that maintains. He outperformed his expected fantasy point total
[12:44] Speaker 2: by nearly 12th. And with a teammate back in the mix,
[12:48] Speaker 2: he actually saw his playing time dip. So if someone
[12:51] Speaker 2: in your league is buying into this performance, I'd be
[12:54] Speaker 2: willing to sell. Add Sam Darnold. If you guys remember,
[13:00] Speaker 2: back in Week 3, Sam Darnold had a great performance
[13:02] Speaker 2: against the Commanders, at least from a fantasy perspective.
[13:05] Speaker 1: But since then, he's been pretty unusable.
[13:08] Speaker 2: He hasn't scored more than 14 standard fantasy points in
[13:10] Speaker 2: any game over his last four. But to be fair
[13:14] Speaker 2: to Darnold, he's faced the Chargers, 49ers, Broncos, and Chiefs
[13:17] Speaker 2: over that stretch. According to our Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed numbers,
[13:21] Speaker 2: no team has faced a tougher quarterback schedule this year
[13:24] Speaker 2: than Seattle has.
[13:26] Speaker 1: Well, guess what?
[13:27] Speaker 2: I'm talking about them right now, so clearly that schedule
[13:30] Speaker 2: is going to get a lot better. In fact, no
[13:32] Speaker 2: team has a more favorable remaining quarterback schedule than the Seahawks.
[13:37] Speaker 2: Six of their upcoming matchups, they're against teams that are
[13:40] Speaker 2: top 10 opponents for quarterbacks by Adjusted Points Allowed. No
[13:43] Speaker 2: other team in the NFL has more than four of
[13:46] Speaker 2: those matchups. And over their next three, they get the Bears, Cardinals,
[13:50] Speaker 2: and Raiders. Those are all top 10 matchups for the position.
[13:54] Speaker 2: So yeah, he's been mediocre to start the season. But
[13:57] Speaker 2: if you need a streamer, if you want a guy
[13:59] Speaker 2: that you might be able to use over the next
[14:01] Speaker 2: three weeks at the very least, I think Sam Darnold
[14:03] Speaker 2: could be your guy.
[14:07] Speaker 1: Add Devin Singletary.
[14:09] Speaker 2: So in most 10 and 12 team leagues, you probably
[14:12] Speaker 2: don't have to be too aggressive in adding Singletary this week.
[14:15] Speaker 2: The Giants have been rolling with this committee, if that's
[14:17] Speaker 2: what you want to call it, and they're entering week
[14:19] Speaker 2: 8 with a bye. But I would not ignore Singletary completely.
[14:24] Speaker 2: Tyrone Tracy left that game against the Texans early with
[14:26] Speaker 2: a hamstring injury, and then Cam Scadaboo, on that final
[14:29] Speaker 2: run of his day, he hurt his hammy. And then
[14:32] Speaker 2: Singletary finished the job in overtime. After Tracy went down,
[14:36] Speaker 2: Skadaboo and Singletary, they split snaps 21-17 in favor of Skadaboo.
[14:41] Speaker 2: It wasn't just a one-sided backfield. So there's at least
[14:44] Speaker 2: some chance that both Skadaboo and Tyrone Tracy are out
[14:48] Speaker 2: in Week 9. And that's what makes Singletary an interesting stash.
[14:52] Speaker 2: Even if Skadaboo is able to suit up, Singletary could
[14:55] Speaker 2: still have a role as we saw in Week 7.
[15:00] Speaker 2: By Trevor Lawrence I know a lot of you are
[15:04] Speaker 2: always looking for set-it-and-forget-it quarterbacks. And I always tell you,
[15:08] Speaker 2: there aren't many of them in fantasy football every single year.
[15:11] Speaker 2: But Trevor Lawrence might be one of those quarterbacks from
[15:13] Speaker 2: now through the end of the season. Coming out of
[15:16] Speaker 2: their bye, the Jags are going to get the Colts, Ravens, Titans, Giants,
[15:20] Speaker 2: Titans again, Bears, Steelers, Texans, Cowboys, and Commanders through the
[15:24] Speaker 2: end of the fantasy season. Of those matchups, only Pittsburgh
[15:28] Speaker 2: ranks as a bottom 12 matchup for quarterbacks by adjusted
[15:31] Speaker 2: fantasy points allowed. Every other opponent is either average to
[15:35] Speaker 2: above average as a matchup. That gives Jacksonville the seventh
[15:38] Speaker 2: best remaining schedule for quarterbacks in all of football. And
[15:41] Speaker 2: keep in mind, they've had the seventh toughest one over
[15:44] Speaker 2: the first seven weeks of the season. The best part
[15:46] Speaker 2: about this, too, is that they get Dallas and Washington
[15:49] Speaker 2: in the fantasy semifinals and finals. So if you're looking
[15:52] Speaker 2: forward to the playoffs, maybe you're 7-0 right now, 6-1
[15:55] Speaker 2: right now. Hopefully you are because you've been listening to
[15:58] Speaker 2: this podcast, right? But if you're looking good, Lawrence is
[16:01] Speaker 2: someone that you should be looking to trade for this week.
[16:04] Speaker 2: Because his playoff schedule is excellent. And honestly, it's kind
[16:07] Speaker 2: of nice to just have a quarterback that you don't
[16:09] Speaker 2: have to worry about rest of season. Look, as you
[16:15] Speaker 2: guys know, I was very excited about Kenyon Sadiq at
[16:18] Speaker 2: the start of the season. And from what I've seen,
[16:21] Speaker 2: I'm not any less bullish long-term. I still think he
[16:24] Speaker 2: was a good prospect. It's just that Mason Taylor, he's
[16:27] Speaker 2: a pain in his butt right now. Over the Jets'
[16:30] Speaker 2: last two games, Taylor has seen six targets in each contest.
[16:33] Speaker 2: He has a target share of nearly 21%. His route
[16:35] Speaker 2: share is 61%. Kenyon Sadiq, 36%. Taylor's run 40 routes.
[16:39] Speaker 2: Kenyon Sadiq, 24%. Now, those peripherals aren't like fantastic. But
[16:48] Speaker 2: I do think Mason Taylor is worth an add because
[16:50] Speaker 2: of their upcoming schedule. Not only is he coming off
[16:53] Speaker 2: a big two-touchdown performance, but New York gets the Raiders, Chiefs,
[16:56] Speaker 2: and Bills over their next three games. Two of those
[16:59] Speaker 2: teams rank as top five opponents for tight ends by
[17:02] Speaker 2: adjusted points allowed. The last one, Buffalo, ranks 11th. That's
[17:07] Speaker 2: a good stretch for a tight end who's seeing a
[17:09] Speaker 2: decent amount of opportunity. So it wouldn't shock me if
[17:12] Speaker 2: Mason Taylor produces. Buy DK Metcalfe. It's been a roller
[17:18] Speaker 2: coaster for DK Metcalf this year. Unfortunately, there have been
[17:22] Speaker 2: more valleys than peaks. He does have games of 16.5
[17:25] Speaker 2: and 20.3 PPR points this year, but he's also scored
[17:29] Speaker 2: in the single digits four separate times.
[17:31] Speaker 1: That's not going to cut it. But here's the good news.
[17:35] Speaker 2: Metcalf currently ranks just outside the top 20 at wide
[17:37] Speaker 2: receiver and expected PPR points per game. He's just underperformed
[17:41] Speaker 2: that mark by 3.2 points per game. Only six wide
[17:45] Speaker 2: receivers in football have been worse versus expectation. In Pittsburgh's schedule,
[17:50] Speaker 2: that could be playing a role here. According to our
[17:52] Speaker 2: Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed numbers, Pittsburgh has faced a bottom
[17:55] Speaker 2: 10 schedule for wide receivers so far this year. Moving forward, though,
[17:59] Speaker 2: they've got one of the best ones in the league.
[18:01] Speaker 2: Just two of their remaining opponents, Denver and Carolina, rank
[18:04] Speaker 2: as bottom half matchups for wide receivers. The opportunity is
[18:08] Speaker 2: there for DK Metcalf. His expected PPR points per game
[18:11] Speaker 2: shows that, as does his near 24% target share. If
[18:15] Speaker 2: he just starts converting that opportunity a little bit more
[18:17] Speaker 2: into fantasy production, we're looking at a potential wide receiver too.
[18:21] Speaker 2: And given the schedule that's ahead, there's a chance that
[18:23] Speaker 2: that happens. Add Jacoby Brissett. According to late round fantasy
[18:30] Speaker 2: football's expected fantasy points model, No quarterback has underperformed versus
[18:34] Speaker 2: expectation at a higher rate than Jacoby Brissett this year.
[18:37] Speaker 2: He actually leads the NFL in expected fantasy points per game,
[18:41] Speaker 2: but he's played nearly eight points below that expectation. As
[18:44] Speaker 2: long as he's starting, he's got a chance to both
[18:47] Speaker 2: score points and see volume. And in week eight, Arizona
[18:51] Speaker 2: gets one of the best matchups on paper against Dallas.
[18:55] Speaker 2: The early game total for that contest is 53 and
[18:57] Speaker 2: a half points. It's a domed environment, so that's always
[19:00] Speaker 2: a plus too. so I don't think that Jacoby Brissett
[19:03] Speaker 2: is a bad streamer at all this week. Add the
[19:07] Speaker 2: Cincinnati Bengals defense. The Bengals are 10.5 point home favorites
[19:11] Speaker 2: this week against the Titans, and shockingly, depending on the
[19:15] Speaker 2: platform that you play on, Cincinnati trails only Minnesota and
[19:19] Speaker 2: fantasy points per game among defenses this year. Tennessee ranks
[19:22] Speaker 2: in the top half of the league in turning the
[19:24] Speaker 2: ball over, and they've been pretty average when it comes
[19:26] Speaker 2: to preventing pressure. So if this game script goes as planned,
[19:30] Speaker 2: the Bengals should have plenty of opportunities to force Cam
[19:33] Speaker 2: Ward into mistakes. And as we've seen this season, that's
[19:36] Speaker 2: a pretty good recipe for opposing fantasy defenses. I've got
[19:43] Speaker 2: a couple of bonus transactions for you this week. It's
[19:45] Speaker 2: to add an Eagles running back and to add Makai Lemon.
[19:50] Speaker 2: So if you watched that Monday night game, you saw
[19:51] Speaker 2: that Saquon Barkley was clearly not 100%. It wouldn't be
[19:55] Speaker 2: shocking if he misses more time. Now, that would typically
[19:58] Speaker 2: mean more Damian Pierce. But Pierce was injured towards the
[20:02] Speaker 2: end of Monday night's game. At the time of this recording,
[20:05] Speaker 2: I don't even know what that injury is. So if
[20:07] Speaker 2: Damian Pierce were to miss time, we'd pivot to Elijah Mitchell.
[20:10] Speaker 2: He's the next man up in Philadelphia's backfield. We're literally
[20:14] Speaker 2: talking about their fifth string running back here. But volume
[20:17] Speaker 2: is volume. And anyone with a chance to see meaningful
[20:19] Speaker 2: touches is worth considering. So just keep an eye on
[20:23] Speaker 2: the injury report this week. But then there's also Makai Lemon.
[20:27] Speaker 2: With Devontae Smith and Dontavian Wick sidelined, Lemon had a
[20:30] Speaker 2: much clearer path to touches in this offense. Before garbage
[20:33] Speaker 2: time happened, he had a 27% target share and he
[20:36] Speaker 2: had about a 90% route share. He scored over 17
[20:39] Speaker 2: PPR points. As you all know, he was a strong
[20:43] Speaker 2: prospect coming out of college, and the Eagles get the
[20:46] Speaker 2: Commanders and Giants over their next two games. Those are
[20:49] Speaker 2: both top-half matchups for wide receivers, according to adjusted fantasy
[20:52] Speaker 2: points allowed. So if Lemon is still on your waiver wire,
[20:55] Speaker 2: he's worth adding. That's it for today's show, though. Thanks
[20:59] Speaker 2: to all of you for listening. If you've yet to
[21:00] Speaker 2: subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure
[21:03] Speaker 2: you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts
[21:05] Speaker 2: can be found. And don't forget to follow me on
[21:07] Speaker 2: Twitter and on Blue Sky, at LateRoundQB. Thanks for listening, everyone.
[21:11] Speaker 2: I'll catch you tomorrow with the weekly 10 Trends episode.

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