# Late-Round Perspectives: Drew Davenport

An episode of [The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast](https://invisiblenetwork.ai/podcast/1224965828), 3 Jul 2026, 1 h 06 min.

Audio: https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/0a233618-d694-4c81-a139-b34e00f98fb1/3b234896-0d07-4d00-8274-b47b0186979b/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=5747cc82-33a9-497c-8353-b34e00f98fbe

Drew Davenport of Footballguys and the Auction Brief podcast joins JJ to chat about auction draft strategy, the legal issues surrounding Rashee Rice and Josh Jacobs, players to target, and so much more. ---------- All DraftKings Customers enter a lineup into the Best Ball $20 million Headliner Contest and receive a bonus ticket for a 2nd entry! Download the DraftKings app and sign up using https://bit.ly/LateRound2026 or promo code LATEROUND! The Crown is Yours! Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Help is available for problem gambling. Call (888) 789-7777 or visit ccpg.org (CT). 18+ in most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. Void where prohibited. 1 per customer. Must enter a lineup into the NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. $25 entry fee. Bonus issued as 1 ticket to NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. Ticket reward is site credit valid for use only on NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. Ticket reward is single-use and expires at contest lock on 9/9/26. See terms at https://www.draftkings.com/promotions. Ends 9/9/26 at contest lock. Sponsored by DraftKings. #DKPartner See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

## Transcript

[0:00] Speaker 1: Drew Davenport is part of the Football Guys staff and
[0:02] Speaker 1: host of the Auction Brief podcast. He's a three time
[0:05] Speaker 1: Kings Classic Auction Draft champion. He's been a practicing defense
[0:08] Speaker 1: attorney for twenty four years, and there's no one in
[0:11] Speaker 1: the fantasy space who breaks down off the field trouble
[0:13] Speaker 1: like he does. These are his Late Round perspectives.
[0:32] Speaker 2: This episode is sponsored by DraftKings.
[0:34] Speaker 1: We've partnered up with DraftKings again this year for Best
[0:36] Speaker 1: Ball and we've got to can't miss offer on their
[0:39] Speaker 1: biggest best Ball contest ever, twenty million dollars in total prizes.
[0:43] Speaker 1: It's Draft one, get one, draft your team once, no
[0:46] Speaker 1: weekly lineup management, and your top scorers start automatically each
[0:50] Speaker 1: week all season long. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy ALP
[0:54] Speaker 1: and sign up with promo code Late Round. Enter a
[0:57] Speaker 1: lineup in the twenty million dollars Best Ball Contest for
[0:59] Speaker 1: twenty five dollars and get a bonus ticket for a
[1:02] Speaker 1: second entry two shots at the title Draft one get
[1:06] Speaker 1: one Only on DraftKings, The crown is yours. I feel
[1:12] Speaker 1: like there can't be that many lawyers that sit on
[1:14] Speaker 1: a fantasy football podcast with three championship belts sitting behind
[1:19] Speaker 1: them dressed in shirt and tie.
[1:21] Speaker 2: I mean, this is this.
[1:22] Speaker 1: Is a dynamic that you don't find very often on
[1:24] Speaker 1: fantasy football show.
[1:25] Speaker 3: Hey, I'll take it. I'll take it. I think that
[1:27] Speaker 3: that's probably a good thing, right.
[1:29] Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean yeah, of course, of course. Are you
[1:31] Speaker 2: gonna be at the Expo again this year?
[1:34] Speaker 3: Absolutely? Yeah, it's what it's I mark my calendar by
[1:36] Speaker 3: the Expo every year. I love that weekend. I just
[1:39] Speaker 3: love seeing the people, and yeah, the Expo is one
[1:42] Speaker 3: of the highlights of my year.
[1:43] Speaker 1: To be honest, what would be if you were to
[1:46] Speaker 1: sell it to somebody who's listening right now, because how
[1:48] Speaker 1: many years of you how many years have you gone?
[1:50] Speaker 3: Now? Well, I started by going to the King's Classic
[1:54] Speaker 3: in twenty nineteen. The Xpo was just sort of a
[1:58] Speaker 3: fledgling event at that point. It wasn't actually a big deal. Yeah,
[2:02] Speaker 3: and then after COVID it kind of exploded. So you know,
[2:06] Speaker 3: I think the thing for me is it's a community thing. Honestly,
[2:11] Speaker 3: if there were no activities and there were just the
[2:13] Speaker 3: Expo on Sunday, I'd still go all weekend because I
[2:15] Speaker 3: want to see the people that I get to see
[2:17] Speaker 3: once a year. There's a lot of people that I
[2:19] Speaker 3: only see one time a year.
[2:20] Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the thing, man. I mean I've said it
[2:22] Speaker 1: before on shows. I was on the podathon for SFB
[2:27] Speaker 1: this past weekend and I was saying, how you know
[2:29] Speaker 1: you go to Georgia's, you know the bar that's there
[2:32] Speaker 1: for folks who haven't been to Canton slashed the expo.
[2:36] Speaker 1: But it's where everyone kind of flocks to, especially after
[2:38] Speaker 1: that Friday.
[2:39] Speaker 2: Event, but also the Saturday one too.
[2:41] Speaker 1: Everyone kind of just goes there and hangs out, you know,
[2:43] Speaker 1: has a couple of drinks, and it's hilarious. If you're
[2:46] Speaker 1: into the fantasy football space, and if you listen to
[2:48] Speaker 1: a lot of podcasts and stuff, it's so funny because
[2:50] Speaker 1: you go there and you just hear the voices that
[2:53] Speaker 1: you've been listening to on shows as you're walking around that.
[2:56] Speaker 1: I mean, it's a small dive bar, you know, it's
[2:58] Speaker 1: just a fun little spot to be.
[2:59] Speaker 2: It's just hilarious.
[3:00] Speaker 1: As you walk around, you can just hear all the
[3:02] Speaker 1: voices of fantasy football that you've probably been listening to
[3:04] Speaker 1: for years.
[3:05] Speaker 3: It is it is. And I got a buddy coming
[3:07] Speaker 3: who is a big fan of podcasts. He's not in
[3:11] Speaker 3: the business. He's in one of my home leagues. He's
[3:13] Speaker 3: coming this summer, and I know that he's going to
[3:14] Speaker 3: be blown away when he walks into Georgia's and it's like, Oh,
[3:17] Speaker 3: there's Oh, and there's Oh, and there's U. Yeah. So yeah,
[3:20] Speaker 3: he's excited. I'm excited, man.
[3:22] Speaker 1: Me too, Me too. It's always good to catch up
[3:24] Speaker 1: with people. Speaking of catching up, you and I haven't
[3:26] Speaker 1: done a show in a minute since last summer probably,
[3:30] Speaker 1: and so you know, this is your first time on perspectives.
[3:32] Speaker 1: I like to get a little bit of a background
[3:34] Speaker 1: for folks to kind of understand your perspective in your
[3:38] Speaker 1: outlook on fantasy football, but also just kind of how
[3:40] Speaker 1: you got started in this and why you got started
[3:43] Speaker 1: in this, so so have at it.
[3:45] Speaker 3: Well, I got started in this. It was a little
[3:48] Speaker 3: bit of luck, a little bit of hard work. But
[3:51] Speaker 3: I got a Twitter account back in twenty nineteen for
[3:55] Speaker 3: the purpose of just following people on Twitter and staying
[3:59] Speaker 3: up with fantasy football. It was an information gathering thing.
[4:02] Speaker 3: And then I was seeing like the narratives around the
[4:05] Speaker 3: Tyreek Hill thing happening, and back at that time, it
[4:09] Speaker 3: was I don't know if you remember the recorded conversation
[4:12] Speaker 3: that his child's mother had that had him like you
[4:17] Speaker 3: should be scared of me too, and like talking about
[4:19] Speaker 3: how the child's scared of them, and like the child
[4:21] Speaker 3: had a broken arm. And anyway, the point is I
[4:24] Speaker 3: was I was thinking there was some takes on this
[4:26] Speaker 3: that were a bit odd, and with my criminal defense experience,
[4:29] Speaker 3: I said, all right, I'm just going to shout into
[4:30] Speaker 3: the void. I had like ninety followers. I'm like, I'm
[4:32] Speaker 3: going to shout into the void, you know, to my
[4:34] Speaker 3: eighty eight bots and my mother and my best friend.
[4:38] Speaker 3: And so I say it, and then Matt Schoff from
[4:42] Speaker 3: Draft Sharks picks it up, and then it went from there.
[4:45] Speaker 3: Ryan McDowell picked it up, and all of a sudden,
[4:47] Speaker 3: I'm getting a DM from Joe Bryant and he says, hey,
[4:49] Speaker 3: look we need a legal guy. And it just looks
[4:51] Speaker 3: like you're into auctions too. We need both of those things.
[4:54] Speaker 3: What do you say? So, like I said, it's pretty lucky.
[4:58] Speaker 3: But you know, hey, if I hadn't put myself out
[5:00] Speaker 3: there wouldn't happened either. So that's where I got my start,
[5:02] Speaker 3: and I was back in twenty nineteen.
[5:04] Speaker 1: How did the auction love come to be? Because, you know,
[5:07] Speaker 1: to be honest, auction is still a very underserved area
[5:12] Speaker 1: of the fantasy football space, and we're definitely going to
[5:14] Speaker 1: be digging into that on today's show.
[5:16] Speaker 2: But how did you get so interested in that as
[5:18] Speaker 2: sort of like your niche?
[5:19] Speaker 3: Yeah, that came, honestly because I didn't even really know
[5:23] Speaker 3: any better. So back in the late nineties early two thousands,
[5:26] Speaker 3: I'm in law school. I got a buddy who plays
[5:28] Speaker 3: fantasy football. He gets me into it, and I wasn't
[5:31] Speaker 3: into it from the standpoint like I was going to
[5:34] Speaker 3: drafts and hanging out with people and doing home league.
[5:37] Speaker 3: I was doing like these online salary cap things where
[5:39] Speaker 3: like when you get a team and they perform well
[5:42] Speaker 3: that week, their price goes up and then you could
[5:45] Speaker 3: like get rid of that player and get like another
[5:47] Speaker 3: really good player. And so that's what I was doing.
[5:50] Speaker 3: And then I get a call from a buddy like, hey,
[5:53] Speaker 3: we got a spot in a home league. It's an auction.
[5:55] Speaker 3: Here's how it works. And I'm like, okay, Like I
[5:57] Speaker 3: didn't know any better. I didn't know there was picking.
[5:59] Speaker 3: I had no idea, so I go to my first
[6:02] Speaker 3: ever fantasy football draft and it was an auction, and
[6:05] Speaker 3: I fell in love with it. I tell the story
[6:06] Speaker 3: all the time because I ended up getting David Boston
[6:11] Speaker 3: for a couple bucks at the end of the draft,
[6:13] Speaker 3: and it was the year that he had the fifteen
[6:15] Speaker 3: hundred yards and eight touchdowns and I was I was
[6:18] Speaker 3: hooked because I said, oh my gosh, I got this
[6:21] Speaker 3: guy for like three bucks, and then he ends up
[6:23] Speaker 3: being one of the best receivers in the league, and
[6:25] Speaker 3: I was hooked from that point. Auctions just always have
[6:28] Speaker 3: seemed natural, as it's always seemed like the way to
[6:30] Speaker 3: play for me.
[6:31] Speaker 2: Was that the year that he started taking steroids.
[6:34] Speaker 3: I'm sure that he has been on them since he
[6:36] Speaker 3: was eleven. So, yeah, he was awesome one year, and
[6:40] Speaker 3: then we never got that again. Dude.
[6:43] Speaker 1: I remember back then that dude like like he was
[6:46] Speaker 1: just jacked out.
[6:47] Speaker 2: I mean, I've never seen a white.
[6:48] Speaker 3: As big as my head.
[6:49] Speaker 2: Yes, yes, it was absurd.
[6:51] Speaker 1: So how do you think your law background, because obviously
[6:53] Speaker 1: you're practicing lawyer, how do you think that has impacted
[6:57] Speaker 1: the way that you view fantasy football and analysts? Now,
[7:00] Speaker 1: obviously you're doing quite literally legal breakdowns of a lot
[7:04] Speaker 1: of this stuff, but even just at like an individual
[7:07] Speaker 1: player analysis level or the way that you look at
[7:09] Speaker 1: auction drafts, Like how how do you think being you know,
[7:11] Speaker 1: an attorney has has impacted the way and you're sort
[7:15] Speaker 1: of like specific angle that you look at fantasy football.
[7:19] Speaker 3: Yeah, this is this is a this could be a
[7:21] Speaker 3: super complicated question. It could be a super easy one too.
[7:24] Speaker 3: I mean, I'm a lawyer, after all. I can I
[7:26] Speaker 3: can talk for twenty minutes about anything, So yeah, I
[7:29] Speaker 3: think honestly, the let me just say that when I
[7:33] Speaker 3: got my start and the buddy who was into it
[7:36] Speaker 3: in law school, let me give a shout out to
[7:37] Speaker 3: my buddy Greg shop here, who's a lawyer up in Toledo,
[7:41] Speaker 3: and he was the guy who really taught me what
[7:43] Speaker 3: it meant to think about sports. And that was happening
[7:46] Speaker 3: like right when I was getting my fantasy football you know,
[7:48] Speaker 3: my introduction into it. And you know, before then, I
[7:52] Speaker 3: was I was one of those people who was just like, Hey,
[7:54] Speaker 3: I'm going to watch Sports Center, and whatever they say
[7:57] Speaker 3: on Sports Center, I'm going to repeat that to my friends.
[7:59] Speaker 3: And that's what I think knowing stuff about sports is
[8:01] Speaker 3: all about. And he was really like, no, this is
[8:05] Speaker 3: how you think about it, this is how you analyze it.
[8:08] Speaker 3: And so I really got into it at that point.
[8:11] Speaker 3: And then the law thing comes in, because being a
[8:15] Speaker 3: lawyer is not really about learning the law. I know
[8:18] Speaker 3: that sounds funny. They teach you how to think like
[8:21] Speaker 3: a lawyer, how to analyze things like a lawyer. And
[8:24] Speaker 3: one of the things that I have to do for
[8:26] Speaker 3: my job every day is I read police reports, just NonStop,
[8:29] Speaker 3: over and over and over. I just have to read
[8:31] Speaker 3: police reports because I have such a high case volume.
[8:35] Speaker 3: You get a inundation of the just the total, the
[8:40] Speaker 3: sheer volume as a public defender that you don't get
[8:43] Speaker 3: as a private lawyer. And what that teaches me is like,
[8:47] Speaker 3: you really have to be good at parsing through all
[8:49] Speaker 3: the nonsense and getting right to the core of what
[8:51] Speaker 3: are the details here that actually matter? So issue spotting
[8:56] Speaker 3: is a big thing. I also think, you know, setting
[8:59] Speaker 3: up arguments, pokings and arguments, all that stuff is that's
[9:02] Speaker 3: what I do every single day. Even if I don't
[9:04] Speaker 3: like my position, I got to do it because that's
[9:07] Speaker 3: my job. It doesn't help you, it doesn't hurt either.
[9:10] Speaker 3: That the extemporaneous speaking is a large part of what
[9:12] Speaker 3: I do too.
[9:13] Speaker 1: So yeah, I've always had the stance that because because obviously,
[9:18] Speaker 1: especially in like today's world where folks are approaching fantasy
[9:23] Speaker 1: analysis more through you know mediums of you know, TikTok
[9:26] Speaker 1: social podcast video, I've actually taken the stance more so
[9:32] Speaker 1: that I think that it's really impactful and helpful to
[9:35] Speaker 1: have a way of writing what you're thinking and saying,
[9:40] Speaker 1: because it allows you to really break down an argument
[9:43] Speaker 1: more coherently. And I'm sure obviously like you're doing that constantly,
[9:47] Speaker 1: I would imagine, and like I would imagine that that
[9:49] Speaker 1: also is is just helping your brain think in that way, right,
[9:53] Speaker 1: and that that argumentative way. Like whenever I always use
[9:55] Speaker 1: this example and you're I mean, you being a football
[9:57] Speaker 1: guys guy, you know you'll appreci siate it. But back
[10:01] Speaker 1: in the day when I started, which was back in
[10:03] Speaker 1: like twenty twelve or so, the one person that I
[10:06] Speaker 1: always wanted to make sure I was kind of crossing
[10:09] Speaker 1: my t's and dotting my eyes for because I knew
[10:12] Speaker 1: that he would try to poke holes in my argument
[10:13] Speaker 1: was Sigmund Bloom. Now this is when back then Bloom
[10:17] Speaker 1: was a little bit more like combative on social not
[10:19] Speaker 1: in a bad way, just like he was more confrontational,
[10:21] Speaker 1: I guess you would say, than he is today.
[10:23] Speaker 2: It wasn't like he was being mean or anything.
[10:25] Speaker 1: He was just wanting to learn, wanting to poke holes
[10:27] Speaker 1: and arguments, et cetera, et cetera. And I still to
[10:30] Speaker 1: this day, and I've told him this, I still to
[10:32] Speaker 1: this day, while I'm approaching an argument, I'm thinking, how
[10:35] Speaker 1: would Bloom poke a hole in this? Right as I'm
[10:37] Speaker 1: approaching a writing or analysis that I'm doing, And I
[10:41] Speaker 1: would imagine for you having to do that and breaking
[10:44] Speaker 1: things down that way as opposed to just hitting record
[10:46] Speaker 1: on a podcast has been kind of helpful.
[10:49] Speaker 3: It's massively helpful. And one of the things that I
[10:52] Speaker 3: reference on my show all the time is a quote
[10:53] Speaker 3: that I love that I'm sure I'm going to screw
[10:56] Speaker 3: up the quote badly, but you don't wear a pathway
[11:00] Speaker 3: in the grass by walking back and forth once. You
[11:04] Speaker 3: have to do it over and over and over until
[11:06] Speaker 3: the pathway is there. And that's the same thing with
[11:09] Speaker 3: your brain. Your brain doesn't you don't figure it out
[11:11] Speaker 3: by hit and record and start talking. You have to
[11:15] Speaker 3: do these things over and over and over, and then
[11:17] Speaker 3: your brain actually has that pathway where you can walk
[11:20] Speaker 3: down it, and it's a lot easier to walk that
[11:22] Speaker 3: path after you've done it a lot.
[11:24] Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I for sure that that's anything with
[11:27] Speaker 1: its fantasy. Really, you know, I'm sure you've talked to
[11:30] Speaker 1: folks that are just starting in the space and they,
[11:32] Speaker 1: you know, talk about what they can do and how
[11:34] Speaker 1: how you get things done so quick.
[11:36] Speaker 2: It's just reps. It's just reps.
[11:38] Speaker 1: It's just doing things over and over again and allowing
[11:41] Speaker 1: your brain to know what to look for and finding
[11:43] Speaker 1: those patterns, even if it's subconscious in a way. Right,
[11:45] Speaker 1: Like some of the things that you're finding, I'm sure
[11:47] Speaker 1: while you're looking at those case reports and stuff is
[11:50] Speaker 1: just something that you just know.
[11:51] Speaker 2: Because you've looked at thousands of them.
[11:52] Speaker 3: You know.
[11:53] Speaker 1: It's just the way that that things kind of go
[11:55] Speaker 1: down as you as you get more and more practice.
[11:57] Speaker 3: Yeah. And again, something else that I say all of
[12:00] Speaker 3: time is people mistake gut instinct for like wild ass guessing.
[12:06] Speaker 3: There is a lot of people think that gut comes
[12:09] Speaker 3: from Hey, I'm just going to like look at something
[12:13] Speaker 3: and give you my wild opinion No, gut comes from
[12:17] Speaker 3: honing that instinct, and that's from the hard work. The
[12:22] Speaker 3: gut springs from the hard work. And I see this
[12:24] Speaker 3: a lot of the poker table where people think, oh,
[12:27] Speaker 3: he didn't have it. I'm like, well, why did you
[12:28] Speaker 3: think he didn't have it? Why I just knew he
[12:29] Speaker 3: didn't have it, And I'm like, that's not at that's
[12:31] Speaker 3: not a reason. Gut comes from the hours and hours
[12:35] Speaker 3: and hours of study thinking about it. And that's the
[12:39] Speaker 3: other part that bothers me sometimes about, especially with auction drafting.
[12:43] Speaker 3: I tell my folks all the time, like, look, you
[12:46] Speaker 3: can't just go do the auction draft, be done and
[12:49] Speaker 3: then and then it's over. It's not over. It's not
[12:52] Speaker 3: a snake where you can just go, Okay, maybe I
[12:54] Speaker 3: could have made this pick here or there. You can
[12:56] Speaker 3: take you a few minutes to look at maybe I
[12:57] Speaker 3: should have made this for that play an auction and
[13:00] Speaker 3: you have to go back and say where did I
[13:02] Speaker 3: make my mistakes? Where did I do things wrong? What
[13:04] Speaker 3: did I do right? When could I have nominated this
[13:07] Speaker 3: guy at a different time? All of that stuff, it
[13:09] Speaker 3: just all matters, and it all rolls into one thing.
[13:12] Speaker 3: That's that's extremely important in a totality, I guess.
[13:17] Speaker 1: Well, let's talk about auctions a little bit. Give your
[13:19] Speaker 1: pitch as to why it should be more mainstream, because
[13:22] Speaker 1: it's not. It's not more mainstream like it's it's you know,
[13:25] Speaker 1: slowly grown as the game has grown, right, Fantasy football
[13:28] Speaker 1: in general has gotten bigger and bigger. But I would
[13:30] Speaker 1: argue that that it's not even necessarily proportionally growing the
[13:33] Speaker 1: same way that the rest of the space is. So
[13:35] Speaker 1: what would your pitch be for more people to try
[13:38] Speaker 1: out and play in auction leagues?
[13:40] Speaker 3: Well, I can get I'll give you the you know,
[13:44] Speaker 3: the stump speech here it I don't know why it's
[13:48] Speaker 3: not growing a little bit better. I'm trying so hard
[13:52] Speaker 3: to make inroads, but it's difficult. I mean, I pitched
[13:55] Speaker 3: a site recently, as recently as last summer about how
[13:59] Speaker 3: we need to approach auction drafting differently, and they were
[14:03] Speaker 3: pretty resistant to it. And I don't blame them, because
[14:06] Speaker 3: when you run a website, you're worried about the bottom line,
[14:09] Speaker 3: and the auctions are not pulling in the bottom line.
[14:11] Speaker 3: I get that it's not helping your bottom line, So
[14:13] Speaker 3: people don't really care about innovating, and so I'm trying
[14:16] Speaker 3: to innovate on my own and well I'm working on it.
[14:19] Speaker 3: But anyway, the pitch would be this, and it's real simple.
[14:22] Speaker 3: I believe that if you are a strong fantasy football player,
[14:27] Speaker 3: that auctions magnify your advantage. I believe that your knowledge
[14:33] Speaker 3: and your experience in the game is magnified over somebody
[14:38] Speaker 3: who's preparing a week before or buying a magazine on
[14:42] Speaker 3: the way to the draft, or printing out rankings. A
[14:45] Speaker 3: lot of people come to auction drafts and they just
[14:46] Speaker 3: print out values and they say, okay, well this guy
[14:50] Speaker 3: is going for thirty seven, and it says right here
[14:52] Speaker 3: that he's valued at forty two, so I'm going to
[14:54] Speaker 3: have been thirty eight. And that is not how auctions
[14:56] Speaker 3: are done. So what I would tell you is, if
[14:59] Speaker 3: you think you're good at fantasy football, auctions will make
[15:02] Speaker 3: you better than the rest of the people in the room.
[15:05] Speaker 3: So that's my big pitch. And let me say this.
[15:08] Speaker 3: A lot of times when I talk about auctions, it
[15:10] Speaker 3: sounds like I'm saying like snakes are you know, have
[15:13] Speaker 3: no skill and they're this and that I think generally
[15:16] Speaker 3: they're boring. Let me just say that, but I will
[15:19] Speaker 3: say there is a skill to snake drafting, serpentine drafting.
[15:23] Speaker 3: They're one hundred percent is you know how I know
[15:25] Speaker 3: that because I'm not very good at it. I'm just
[15:29] Speaker 3: not like I don't do enough of them, and I
[15:30] Speaker 3: don't care. Like now I pay attention to it. And look,
[15:34] Speaker 3: I talk about ADP a lot, and I talk about
[15:36] Speaker 3: where guys should be valued because that's the general need
[15:40] Speaker 3: in the community. But my pitch is, look, if you
[15:43] Speaker 3: think you're good, start getting into auctions, and your base
[15:47] Speaker 3: will make you better than other people.
[15:49] Speaker 2: So let's dig into this a little bit more.
[15:51] Speaker 1: When you look at what people on other sites are
[15:54] Speaker 1: on social media, or what have you are doing, or
[15:56] Speaker 1: your own experience, right, because obviously you know you've done
[16:00] Speaker 1: really well. Let's just say, in the King's Classic auction drafts, right,
[16:04] Speaker 1: or other industry drafts, what do you think fantasy managers
[16:07] Speaker 1: get wrong most when they go into one of those auctions?
[16:11] Speaker 3: So I think, JJ, it's a super basic level that
[16:16] Speaker 3: bothers me about auction drafting, Okay, And I think the
[16:20] Speaker 3: basic level is this everyone What we see on sites
[16:25] Speaker 3: a lot is when people write articles about this stuff.
[16:28] Speaker 3: Everyone likes to say, hey, flexibility is key going to
[16:30] Speaker 3: the draft and don't be rigid. Yes, that's true, but
[16:34] Speaker 3: that doesn't capture the whole point here, because I don't
[16:38] Speaker 3: believe that flexibility should be the first thing that people
[16:41] Speaker 3: are learning. In fact, I believe that what most people
[16:45] Speaker 3: get wrong here is that rigidity actually breeds flexibility in
[16:50] Speaker 3: the draft. And let me explain what I mean there.
[16:53] Speaker 3: There's a couple things that I think people do wrong.
[16:55] Speaker 3: Number one, I don't think people walk into an auction
[16:58] Speaker 3: draft with a smart enough play in most of the time.
[17:01] Speaker 3: And I think a lot of times what that boils
[17:03] Speaker 3: down to is people are reading articles that are telling
[17:06] Speaker 3: them that say, hey, if you want to spend X
[17:10] Speaker 3: amount of dollars on wide receiver, okay, so put fifty
[17:13] Speaker 3: five percent of your budget towards wide receiver. That helps
[17:18] Speaker 3: nobody in the middle of an auction. You're not sitting
[17:20] Speaker 3: in there going I have fifty five percent. Okay, so
[17:23] Speaker 3: two hundred dollars cap. That's one hundred and ten dollars
[17:26] Speaker 3: And then they say sold and you're like, wait a minute,
[17:27] Speaker 3: I'm still doing math. Like that doesn't help anybody. So
[17:32] Speaker 3: I think the first thing is formulating a plan that
[17:34] Speaker 3: you can execute, and I think that plan needs to
[17:37] Speaker 3: be super specific. And that's where I think people get lost.
[17:41] Speaker 3: I think people are like, well, I don't really like
[17:43] Speaker 3: you know this and that, and I'm going to try
[17:45] Speaker 3: to go for a top wide receiver. Like that's not
[17:47] Speaker 3: a plan. The plan should be who am I going
[17:50] Speaker 3: to nominate the first round? Who am I trying to
[17:52] Speaker 3: lock up early? Who are my targets that I need
[17:54] Speaker 3: to figure out if I'm going to get these guys early? Like,
[17:56] Speaker 3: there is a specific way that you got to build
[17:58] Speaker 3: a plan, and what flows from that is something that
[18:02] Speaker 3: I have coined. The phrase that I've coined that has
[18:05] Speaker 3: become an extremely important crutch if you will, or tool
[18:10] Speaker 3: maybe is a better way to say it, and that
[18:12] Speaker 3: is the par sheet and the par sheet. I know
[18:16] Speaker 3: that there are a lot of people out there that
[18:17] Speaker 3: just kind of shrug that off and think that it's nonsense.
[18:21] Speaker 3: But as soon as you use it, you will realize
[18:23] Speaker 3: how great it is. And by the way, I realize,
[18:25] Speaker 3: I'm drafting against you in a few weeks, so just
[18:29] Speaker 3: delete all this from your memory before we walk in there.
[18:32] Speaker 3: But the part sheet is the single biggest innovation that
[18:36] Speaker 3: I have in the space that I believe is important
[18:39] Speaker 3: for especially new folks, but I think anybody and I
[18:43] Speaker 3: use it still to this day. And really what it
[18:46] Speaker 3: is is, if you have a two hundred dollars cap
[18:48] Speaker 3: and a sixteen man roster, you're going to write a
[18:51] Speaker 3: specific dollar amount for every single player on your roster. Okay,
[18:56] Speaker 3: I need a kicker one dollar, I need a defense
[18:59] Speaker 3: one dollar, a backup tight end one dollar. You're going
[19:02] Speaker 3: to go and put these numbers down my wide receiver one.
[19:06] Speaker 3: I don't want to spend more than fifty two. Okay,
[19:08] Speaker 3: you write that there, and then you get a specific
[19:10] Speaker 3: dollar amount for everyone. And then the pushback I always
[19:13] Speaker 3: hear is that's way too rigid. It's going to make
[19:15] Speaker 3: you go in there, and I say, no, it's the
[19:17] Speaker 3: exact opposite. What it does is it gives you a
[19:19] Speaker 3: guideline because in the end, what auctions are is a
[19:23] Speaker 3: balancing act. It's a tight rope act because you have
[19:26] Speaker 3: to spend money and if you don't, you won't have
[19:29] Speaker 3: a good enough good impact players. But if you spend
[19:31] Speaker 3: it too quick, you won't be available in the middle
[19:34] Speaker 3: of the draft to take up some of the deals
[19:35] Speaker 3: that you need to grab. So it's a balancing act
[19:39] Speaker 3: and the party keeps you on that tightrope, and it
[19:43] Speaker 3: keeps you walking down that path because if you're straight
[19:45] Speaker 3: too far, you go, Okay, I spent fifty eight when
[19:48] Speaker 3: I said I was going to spend fifty two. Now
[19:50] Speaker 3: I got to pull six dollars from somewhere else. But
[19:52] Speaker 3: that's instant. You know that stuff right away. It's no like, hey,
[19:57] Speaker 3: I've spent thirty eight percent of my budget now and
[20:00] Speaker 3: now I need I have seven percent left to spend.
[20:03] Speaker 3: So I believe that rigidity leads to flexibility, and I
[20:07] Speaker 3: think that's something that everyone misses when they start out.
[20:10] Speaker 1: It's almost like being hypothetically rigid right where it's the
[20:14] Speaker 1: rigidity is not necessarily I have to get Chase Brown
[20:17] Speaker 1: no matter what you know exactly, which is definitely something
[20:21] Speaker 1: that can get you into trouble in an auction because
[20:24] Speaker 1: then you're so fixated on that one player, and then
[20:27] Speaker 1: all of a sudden people might be underspending. You know,
[20:30] Speaker 1: you might have gotten Values and other guys, but you're like, nope,
[20:32] Speaker 1: I'm waiting for Chase Brown. And then all of a
[20:33] Speaker 1: sudden you spend ten extra dollars on Chase Brown because
[20:36] Speaker 1: you have that idea. But like this being like hypothetically
[20:40] Speaker 1: rigid makes a lot of sense because you can then
[20:42] Speaker 1: adjust as your draft is actually going down.
[20:45] Speaker 3: Yes, yes, that's exactly right. And you just mentioned something
[20:49] Speaker 3: that's a pet peeve of mine is that if you
[20:51] Speaker 3: believe that you really want Chase Brown and it's like, hey,
[20:53] Speaker 3: it's Chase Brown or bust for me, that's okay to
[20:56] Speaker 3: think that before the draft starts. But what you need
[20:59] Speaker 3: to do is not wait to find out if you're
[21:01] Speaker 3: going to get them right, because there's going to be
[21:03] Speaker 3: deals along the way that you have to decide whether
[21:08] Speaker 3: or not you want them. And if you're waiting on Brown,
[21:10] Speaker 3: you miss the deals. So you need to nominate him
[21:13] Speaker 3: right away. And a lot of things. A lot of
[21:15] Speaker 3: times what people do is they miss that that they
[21:19] Speaker 3: think that waiting is going to equal a deal. That's
[21:22] Speaker 3: not really the case with the top players. You're not
[21:24] Speaker 3: getting great deals on the top players. You need to
[21:27] Speaker 3: nominate your targets early, find out if you're going to
[21:30] Speaker 3: get them. If you don't, you can pivot.
[21:32] Speaker 1: So, I mean, this might be one of those things,
[21:34] Speaker 1: but what are what are a few things. You know,
[21:36] Speaker 1: if someone's walking into an auction draft that you think
[21:38] Speaker 1: they should be aware of that they might not be
[21:40] Speaker 1: prepared for, you know, just give given your experience.
[21:44] Speaker 3: Yeah, so you're ashore. Sheated asked me for three things.
[21:48] Speaker 3: I did list three here that are fairly specific, but
[21:50] Speaker 3: I think they're somewhat universal too, and that's what I
[21:54] Speaker 3: was trying to do. The first one is, I don't
[21:57] Speaker 3: think anybody's prepared for the speed of the draft. I
[22:00] Speaker 3: don't think anybody's prepared for how quickly things are happening,
[22:02] Speaker 3: and certainly with an online draft. I know that most
[22:06] Speaker 3: people are doing their drafting online these days, but if
[22:08] Speaker 3: you're in a live auction it's a little bit easier
[22:11] Speaker 3: to say, hey, hold up a second, I got to
[22:12] Speaker 3: write that down or I got to do this. But
[22:15] Speaker 3: an online draft is a really fast process that you're
[22:20] Speaker 3: not ready to handle. And when that clock is beeping
[22:24] Speaker 3: at you, like five four in snake drafts, you're really
[22:28] Speaker 3: comfortable with the fact that I've got time to check
[22:30] Speaker 3: my roster, to check injuries, to look something up. You
[22:33] Speaker 3: do not have that time in an auction draft. So
[22:36] Speaker 3: it's just the speed is different. So preparation is really
[22:39] Speaker 3: important there. The second thing is is an immutable law
[22:43] Speaker 3: of auction drafting. If the prices are too high, they're
[22:47] Speaker 3: gonna come down, and if the prices are too low,
[22:50] Speaker 3: they're gonna go up. They're just it is a closed system.
[22:54] Speaker 3: It is a finite closed system. If you have a
[22:57] Speaker 3: twelve team league with a two hundred dollars cap, there's
[22:59] Speaker 3: only twenty four hundred bucks. And if people are sitting
[23:02] Speaker 3: back and Jamar Chase goes for forty eight bucks when
[23:06] Speaker 3: you should be going for sixty, then you need to
[23:09] Speaker 3: be bidding, even if you're playing. Was not to spend
[23:11] Speaker 3: a bunch of money on a wide receiver one. You've
[23:13] Speaker 3: got a bid forty nine because the prices are going
[23:16] Speaker 3: to go up and you're going to be squeezed and
[23:17] Speaker 3: you're going to be stuck. So just remember, if it's
[23:20] Speaker 3: too high, it's going to go down, and it's too low,
[23:23] Speaker 3: it's good. Now. The one thing I'll say the caveat
[23:25] Speaker 3: here is that if the prices are too high, you
[23:27] Speaker 3: can't just sit there and wait and then all of
[23:29] Speaker 3: a sudden, the top twenty eight players are off the
[23:31] Speaker 3: board and you don't have any of them you got
[23:33] Speaker 3: to get one of them in overpay or whatever. But
[23:36] Speaker 3: so yeah, Number three is I don't think people really
[23:39] Speaker 3: realize how much you're playing against people when you're playing
[23:42] Speaker 3: an auction because Serpentine drafts aren't really like that. I mean,
[23:45] Speaker 3: it is a little bit like if you're in the
[23:47] Speaker 3: ten hole and you're in a twelve teamer and you
[23:50] Speaker 3: need a quarterback, you go, okay, does eleven and twelve
[23:52] Speaker 3: have a quarterback? That can I wait till the wrap
[23:54] Speaker 3: around that kind of stuff. But you're not really even
[23:57] Speaker 3: playing people there. You're playing rosters and stuff. But I
[23:59] Speaker 3: think that it's underestimated how people will tell you what
[24:05] Speaker 3: they think without knowing it. And in an auction room,
[24:08] Speaker 3: you can look around and just see what people are thinking.
[24:11] Speaker 3: I mean you really can. Nobody's in that room trying
[24:13] Speaker 3: to They're all thinking about what they're going to do next.
[24:16] Speaker 3: You can really look around and just be like, I know,
[24:19] Speaker 3: he doesn't want him, he doesn't want him, he does
[24:21] Speaker 3: this guy always nominates somebody that he wants. This guy
[24:24] Speaker 3: nominates people he doesn't want. This guy tries to waste money.
[24:27] Speaker 3: You can peg it and it's not hard because nobody's
[24:30] Speaker 3: in there in the room really trying to sandbag you
[24:32] Speaker 3: or trying to trying to like do something different. And
[24:38] Speaker 3: on the other side of the corn here, let me
[24:39] Speaker 3: just close by saying it's funny too, because when you're
[24:43] Speaker 3: in an auction draft room with people you don't know,
[24:47] Speaker 3: you can never predict when somebody is going to do
[24:50] Speaker 3: something that's against their self interest. And so that's one
[24:54] Speaker 3: of the things we're playing people. It's difficult, and that's
[24:57] Speaker 3: part of why I love auction drafting, because people's self
[25:01] Speaker 3: interest sometimes doesn't come through in what they do. They
[25:05] Speaker 3: get frustrated, like I didn't get that guy and I
[25:07] Speaker 3: wanted that guy, or they get mad at you because
[25:10] Speaker 3: they think you're bidding them up when you're not actually
[25:12] Speaker 3: doing that. You're just trying to build your team. And
[25:14] Speaker 3: so people will act against self interest randomly and they'll
[25:17] Speaker 3: screw up your plans and then you have to shift
[25:20] Speaker 3: and move. But that's all about playing people, and that's
[25:23] Speaker 3: you know, that's one of the reasons I love the game.
[25:25] Speaker 3: I love to try to beat the game itself. Yeah,
[25:27] Speaker 3: by by game theory and by playing people. But again,
[25:31] Speaker 3: that's one of those things that people underestimate you're playing
[25:33] Speaker 3: against other people. You're not necessarily playing as much fantasy
[25:36] Speaker 3: football as you might think.
[25:39] Speaker 1: I also think that when when I've had folks approach
[25:42] Speaker 1: me about doing more auction content, which I've done auction
[25:45] Speaker 1: content in the past, I actually people don't know this,
[25:48] Speaker 1: especially if you're newer to the show. But back in
[25:50] Speaker 1: the day, I was Rodo World's auction guy, like back
[25:53] Speaker 1: in like twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, I would do even
[25:57] Speaker 1: before that a little bit, yeah, and I would do
[25:59] Speaker 1: stuff for their magazine and write about it. And one
[26:02] Speaker 1: of the things that I think that I'd love to
[26:03] Speaker 1: get your take on this, but I think that people
[26:06] Speaker 1: overrate the wrong aspects when going from snake to auction
[26:12] Speaker 1: and what changes from snake to auction. What I mean
[26:14] Speaker 1: by that is I write an entire draft guide and
[26:16] Speaker 1: it's ninety nine percent snake draft focus, you know, talking
[26:20] Speaker 1: about how to extract value, et cetera, et cetera, And
[26:23] Speaker 1: in the end, a lot of those ideas can still
[26:26] Speaker 1: definitely apply to auction drafts. It's just that people think
[26:29] Speaker 1: that you go into an auction like you're playing a
[26:32] Speaker 1: completely different game, like it's still fantasy like the game
[26:35] Speaker 1: itself is the same, and the mechanism in which you're
[26:38] Speaker 1: obviously drafting those teams is what's different.
[26:41] Speaker 2: Right But for some.
[26:42] Speaker 1: Reason, I think a lot of people people listening to
[26:44] Speaker 1: this right now probably think it, but they think about
[26:46] Speaker 1: that in reverse, like almost like the game is totally
[26:49] Speaker 1: different and you're not scoring the same way, you're not
[26:52] Speaker 1: putting a lineup together the same way, and how you're
[26:55] Speaker 1: drafting players.
[26:56] Speaker 2: That's where things differ.
[26:57] Speaker 1: For me is that most people will get a ranking
[27:00] Speaker 1: sheet and it's a linear sheet one to two to
[27:02] Speaker 1: three to four to five. But to me, the big
[27:05] Speaker 1: key with auctions is understanding tier when when you're doing
[27:09] Speaker 1: player take, you know, when you're trying to find pockets
[27:11] Speaker 1: of value because I think I think in the end,
[27:13] Speaker 1: both snake and auction, if there's like where the overlap
[27:16] Speaker 1: is is understanding where there might be pockets of value
[27:21] Speaker 1: within a position. Like I really like a lot of
[27:24] Speaker 1: the late third round to early fifth round wide receivers
[27:27] Speaker 1: this year, right, So we're talking like the Luther Burdens
[27:30] Speaker 1: of the world, the you know, the the Teturooe mcmillons
[27:33] Speaker 1: of the world. There's so many, you know, Jaylen Wattle
[27:35] Speaker 1: Terry McLaurin. There's so many good wide receivers in that range.
[27:39] Speaker 1: To me, you can use that to your advantage so
[27:43] Speaker 1: so much in an auction draft that you can't necessarily
[27:46] Speaker 1: do in a snake draft because in a snake draft,
[27:48] Speaker 1: you're forced to make decisions and you're probably only going
[27:51] Speaker 1: to walk away with one or two of those guys.
[27:52] Speaker 1: In an auction draft, you can walk away with four of them,
[27:54] Speaker 1: you know, because you can just bid on them and
[27:56] Speaker 1: then forego the early round wide receivers. And so to me,
[28:01] Speaker 1: it's really about like really not just tiering players and
[28:04] Speaker 1: having those tiers, but understanding what that means and where
[28:08] Speaker 1: you can attack different pockets of your draft, as opposed
[28:11] Speaker 1: to simply converting a linear rankings list, you know, over
[28:16] Speaker 1: to auction values in drafting off of that, because in
[28:19] Speaker 1: the end, when you're doing that, you're still getting linear
[28:21] Speaker 1: values in a dollar form.
[28:23] Speaker 2: You know, it's still the same kind of thing that
[28:25] Speaker 2: you would be doing in a snake draft.
[28:26] Speaker 1: Is that's something that you've sort of witnessed and gone
[28:29] Speaker 1: through as well.
[28:30] Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a really astute point here because the
[28:33] Speaker 3: preaching I started to do last summer and I actually
[28:36] Speaker 3: made an entire episode about how the fantasy industry is
[28:40] Speaker 3: really failing auction drafters because it is there is a
[28:44] Speaker 3: tendency to believe there's a one to one comparison and
[28:48] Speaker 3: that a mid third round guy should be X dollars.
[28:51] Speaker 3: And I just think that's nonsense because the auctions themselves
[28:54] Speaker 3: are non linear processing.
[28:56] Speaker 2: Exactly.
[28:57] Speaker 3: We don't nominate guys wide receiver eight, than wide receiver nine,
[29:02] Speaker 3: than wide receiver ten. That's not so there's you have
[29:05] Speaker 3: to get rid of the linear thinking because prices happen
[29:09] Speaker 3: because of nomination order, and on top of that, the
[29:13] Speaker 3: spikes and prices will happen because of scarcity, and that's
[29:17] Speaker 3: not something you can predict ahead of time. And so
[29:20] Speaker 3: to your point, and I'm going to steal something from
[29:23] Speaker 3: something I was going to say down the road, but
[29:25] Speaker 3: you're talking about something that I preach about all the time,
[29:27] Speaker 3: which is opportunity cost. Yes, And I hate mid round
[29:31] Speaker 3: tight ends and snake draft, yes, absolutely can't stand it. Yes,
[29:34] Speaker 3: But when I get into an auction it's a lot
[29:37] Speaker 3: easier because people don't care about tight ends after a
[29:40] Speaker 3: certain number of them. Once you get past around you know,
[29:43] Speaker 3: tight end four or five people just kind of don't care,
[29:46] Speaker 3: and you can get guys like for three to five
[29:48] Speaker 3: bucks that you would have to spend a seventh round
[29:50] Speaker 3: pick on. I'm not doing that in a regular snake,
[29:54] Speaker 3: but I'm in an auction. The opportunity cost is not
[29:57] Speaker 3: the same. So and it's the same thing with wide receive.
[30:00] Speaker 3: And I love that you pointed out all these guys
[30:02] Speaker 3: because the open to my show a couple of weeks ago,
[30:07] Speaker 3: we had just done a mock auction with some of
[30:09] Speaker 3: my Patreon folks, and I said, you know, I'm not
[30:12] Speaker 3: so sure that with seeing the prices that I saw,
[30:16] Speaker 3: it was a weird sort of inflation at the top.
[30:19] Speaker 3: And I talked about this with Rich Reebar recently about
[30:22] Speaker 3: how there's a there's just a very small subset of
[30:27] Speaker 3: receivers now that are demanding that thirty percent alpha target share,
[30:31] Speaker 3: and that was reflected in this first auction that I did,
[30:35] Speaker 3: where the top guys were way more inflated than I
[30:38] Speaker 3: had seen in recent years. And then it fell off
[30:41] Speaker 3: a cliff and I said in my show, like, I
[30:44] Speaker 3: think that it's very possible that my strategy this year
[30:47] Speaker 3: is not going to be to have one of these guys.
[30:50] Speaker 3: But instead it's going to be to go after tedt Roha, McMillan,
[30:54] Speaker 3: Terry McLaurin, Jalen Waddle, these guys that are all twenty
[30:58] Speaker 3: five to thirty dollars. You could go and get a
[31:01] Speaker 3: pretty banging group of five wide receivers for about one
[31:05] Speaker 3: hundred and ten bucks that are all like those guys.
[31:08] Speaker 3: And the guy that I had leading the charge was
[31:10] Speaker 3: Devonte Smith. He went for thirty three bucks in that
[31:13] Speaker 3: in that auction, and then I said, okay, put him
[31:16] Speaker 3: with and I think I listed those guys and then
[31:19] Speaker 3: you know, Christian Watson or Jamison Williams for eighteen or
[31:22] Speaker 3: nineteen bucks, bang one hundred and twenty two bucks. I
[31:25] Speaker 3: think it was to have Demante Smith, Terry McLaurin, Ted McMillan,
[31:30] Speaker 3: you know, Jamison Williams, and then and you know one other,
[31:34] Speaker 3: Jayden Waddell. And I'm not so sure that that's not
[31:37] Speaker 3: going to be my strategy this year because you've isolated
[31:39] Speaker 3: exactly my point, which is that your approach should matter
[31:43] Speaker 3: as far as where you see those value pockets. And it's
[31:47] Speaker 3: something that I preached about for years with quarterback that
[31:50] Speaker 3: I thought that now I don't believe that this year,
[31:53] Speaker 3: and I've kind of come off it, but I believe
[31:55] Speaker 3: that for several years, the way to approach quarterback was
[31:57] Speaker 3: I don't want the top couple guys, and I don't
[32:00] Speaker 3: don't want my roster filler replacement level guys. There's a
[32:03] Speaker 3: little value pocket of guys that are six, eight, ten
[32:06] Speaker 3: dollars that I believe are extremely valuable, but that don't
[32:10] Speaker 3: command the price of the top guys.
[32:11] Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that that Also.
[32:13] Speaker 1: The quarterback thing's really interesting because I've noticed more anecdotally
[32:17] Speaker 1: and obviously you've studied this a lot more than I
[32:19] Speaker 1: have and done a lot more drafts than I have.
[32:21] Speaker 1: But I've noticed anecdotally that if you're especially if you're
[32:25] Speaker 1: in a sharper room where you know people aren't going
[32:26] Speaker 1: to want to spend on quarterback, people are trying to,
[32:29] Speaker 1: like penny pinch at that position, thinking that, oh, there's
[32:32] Speaker 1: no difference between this middle round guy versus this late
[32:35] Speaker 1: round guy. You know, it's traditional late round guy in
[32:37] Speaker 1: a stake draft. But like in the end, you still
[32:40] Speaker 1: have to look at the dollar value itself and what
[32:42] Speaker 1: those savings are. We're not talking, you know, Nico Collins
[32:45] Speaker 1: to the next tier of that group of wide receivers.
[32:48] Speaker 1: We were just talking about where there might be a
[32:49] Speaker 1: significant dollar value change from that player to the next.
[32:53] Speaker 1: We're talking about going from you know, a middle round
[32:56] Speaker 1: maybe even Jalen Hurts this year, however much he goes
[32:58] Speaker 1: for or Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence to then you know,
[33:02] Speaker 1: knocking that down to one of your favorite you know,
[33:04] Speaker 1: like maybe Tyler Shuck will go for a dollar right,
[33:07] Speaker 1: and if you're only spending four or five dollars or
[33:10] Speaker 1: six dollars on a Justin Herbert or a Trevor Lawrence,
[33:13] Speaker 1: I don't think that the penny pinching makes that much
[33:16] Speaker 1: sense in that case compared to what it might do
[33:19] Speaker 1: from a regular season long draft and a regular snake draft,
[33:22] Speaker 1: I should say.
[33:23] Speaker 2: The opportunity cost equations.
[33:24] Speaker 1: I think with those, you know, it's the same idea
[33:26] Speaker 1: as the tight end thing that you were talking about, right,
[33:28] Speaker 1: the middle round tight ends the delta and actual dollar value,
[33:32] Speaker 1: even if we're usually fading those guys in a snake draft,
[33:35] Speaker 1: the actual delta and dollar value when you're talking about
[33:39] Speaker 1: throwing a dart at Greg Dolcich.
[33:40] Speaker 2: Compared to drafting Tucker Craft.
[33:42] Speaker 1: You know, it's like, why would we not just spend
[33:44] Speaker 1: four or five more dollars to get Tucker Craft instead
[33:47] Speaker 1: of because you're gonna have to spend that dollar.
[33:49] Speaker 2: And there's just such a low.
[33:50] Speaker 1: Ceiling in terms of how much people actually spend on
[33:52] Speaker 1: those guys when pushed comes a shove.
[33:56] Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's radicalized me a little bit in the
[33:58] Speaker 3: last couple of years against too much on my bench.
[34:01] Speaker 3: And honestly, what happened to me was the reason it
[34:04] Speaker 3: happened was because in the King's Classic, after I was
[34:09] Speaker 3: coming off my back to back, which I don't know
[34:12] Speaker 3: how that's ever going to happen again, flying, I was
[34:15] Speaker 3: flying high, and I was like, I'm going to draft
[34:17] Speaker 3: this super deep team because I looked at the previous
[34:20] Speaker 3: years and said, I can draft this really deep team,
[34:24] Speaker 3: and I had the illusion that I could build a
[34:27] Speaker 3: deep enough team to stave off the injuries in a
[34:29] Speaker 3: fourteen team league. It's just not happening. And so I've
[34:33] Speaker 3: gotten more and more to the point where I'm absolutely
[34:37] Speaker 3: not going to spend money or excuse me, save money,
[34:42] Speaker 3: because I need to get some guys on my bench
[34:45] Speaker 3: if it comes down to it, and I'm in a
[34:46] Speaker 3: tough bidding war and I need this guy and he's
[34:49] Speaker 3: my starter. Then I'm just going to spend the extra money,
[34:52] Speaker 3: because when you get to the end of the auction,
[34:54] Speaker 3: you're never going to regret spending the extra four bucks
[34:58] Speaker 3: for Trevor Lawrence or just and Herbert. You are going
[35:02] Speaker 3: to regret waiting and then looking down at your team
[35:04] Speaker 3: and seeing I have no guys with X factor on
[35:06] Speaker 3: my team because I dropped out because oh, this guy
[35:10] Speaker 3: was four bucks too much, this guy was three bucks
[35:12] Speaker 3: too much. Like that's silly. Lock down those guys, those
[35:15] Speaker 3: impact guys, and then worry about the rest later. The
[35:18] Speaker 3: rest will come to you. And if you end up
[35:20] Speaker 3: not spending enough on your bench, hey, work harder on
[35:23] Speaker 3: the wire.
[35:23] Speaker 1: I've been doing the exact same thing and trying to
[35:25] Speaker 1: preach the exact same thing and best ball to a
[35:27] Speaker 1: degree where I talked about this on becoming a Best
[35:30] Speaker 1: Ball bro this week. But essentially, there are going to
[35:33] Speaker 1: be times where you know, I was at like the
[35:35] Speaker 1: front of the draft, right and I drafted Jalen Waddle
[35:37] Speaker 1: on this Best Ball team.
[35:38] Speaker 2: I think it was in like the one O two
[35:39] Speaker 2: area or something like that. One oh three, and.
[35:42] Speaker 1: I drafted Jalen Waddle and the way that the quarterback
[35:46] Speaker 1: room was kind of shifting and moving. I was in
[35:47] Speaker 1: the ninth round and I took bo Nicks like fifteen
[35:50] Speaker 1: picks above ADP because I knew that he likely wasn't
[35:52] Speaker 1: going to make it back around to me. And you
[35:54] Speaker 1: can sit there and say, but ADP value, you know,
[35:57] Speaker 1: you're not extracting. But it's not about extracting every value
[36:01] Speaker 1: out of every single pick that you make.
[36:03] Speaker 2: You know, in the grand scheme, of course you want
[36:05] Speaker 2: to you want to.
[36:05] Speaker 1: Extract value, and you'll you'll be able to pick and
[36:08] Speaker 1: choose those battles, but you have to work or you
[36:10] Speaker 1: have to look at what works for your individual team
[36:12] Speaker 1: in that instance, right, Like you can't just ignore, you know,
[36:16] Speaker 1: you can't just sit there and say, like, hey, look
[36:18] Speaker 1: at this amazing value that I got on Tyler Shuck.
[36:21] Speaker 1: I only got him for a dollar when realistically, if
[36:24] Speaker 1: you're looking at the usability of that team, if you
[36:26] Speaker 1: would have just spent I mean, I think the exact
[36:27] Speaker 1: same thing happened with with me in The King's Classic.
[36:30] Speaker 1: Last year, I drafted Drake May and I love Drake May.
[36:33] Speaker 1: Like that was one of my you know, fait. You know,
[36:35] Speaker 1: it seems like a humble brag, but it was just
[36:37] Speaker 1: my guy last year, as it was a lot of
[36:39] Speaker 1: other fantasy analysts, and I got him for like three
[36:41] Speaker 1: or four bucks, and it was a situation where, uh,
[36:45] Speaker 1: you know, he gets nominated. I bid him up a dollar,
[36:49] Speaker 1: and then someone else bids him up a dollar, and
[36:51] Speaker 1: then no I could see no one else wanted to
[36:53] Speaker 1: go further because it was a late round quarterback and
[36:55] Speaker 1: They're like, oh, I budgeted a dollar two dollars from
[36:57] Speaker 1: my late round quarterback, and I'm like, I'm just gonna
[36:59] Speaker 1: spend one dollar, one extra dollar to get all of
[37:02] Speaker 1: you off of me right now, you know.
[37:04] Speaker 2: And that's all it tooks. That's all it takes. You
[37:06] Speaker 2: don't think about that dollar when the draft is over.
[37:08] Speaker 2: It doesn't matter.
[37:09] Speaker 3: And how many times do you end an auction with
[37:10] Speaker 3: four bucks left over?
[37:11] Speaker 2: Right?
[37:12] Speaker 3: It happens all the time. And then you're like, oh, damn,
[37:14] Speaker 3: I should have spent that money on Drake May exactly.
[37:17] Speaker 3: And then you look back halfway through the season and
[37:19] Speaker 3: you go, oh my god, my quarterback is Jordan Love
[37:23] Speaker 3: and I could have had Drake May. What the hell
[37:25] Speaker 3: did I do to myself? And that's why I say
[37:26] Speaker 3: you'll never regret. And the other thing that I think
[37:29] Speaker 3: that that you hit on here is that when you're
[37:36] Speaker 3: calling out a guy like that, there is a certain categorization.
[37:40] Speaker 3: You hit on this perfectly that had people have in
[37:42] Speaker 3: their minds about that player, and that prevents them from
[37:46] Speaker 3: kind of breaking through it and bidding on that guy,
[37:49] Speaker 3: when in reality, that's not what you should be thinking about,
[37:52] Speaker 3: because look, I know we do this for a job.
[37:56] Speaker 3: We want to post our team and be like, look
[37:58] Speaker 3: at this sweet deal I got on this guy, right,
[38:01] Speaker 3: And sometimes you just need to spend money, and sometimes
[38:03] Speaker 3: you're going to spend too much money. And let's say that, Hey,
[38:06] Speaker 3: I have this guy rated as a seventeen dollar player,
[38:09] Speaker 3: but I really need a good wide receiver too that
[38:11] Speaker 3: I don't have and it's getting thin, and I spent
[38:14] Speaker 3: twenty four dollars on a guy that's a seventeen dollar player.
[38:18] Speaker 3: That bugs me and I don't want to do that.
[38:20] Speaker 3: And one of my biggest problems, literally might be my
[38:23] Speaker 3: biggest problem is that I know values so cold, I
[38:26] Speaker 3: know him so well that I hate paying extra. Yeah,
[38:29] Speaker 3: but what I have to do is I have to
[38:31] Speaker 3: force myself to do it sometimes and say this is
[38:33] Speaker 3: way too much for this guy. But it matters more
[38:36] Speaker 3: to have the guy than it does to have the
[38:38] Speaker 3: value exact like, we have to not lose the forest
[38:43] Speaker 3: for the trees. When we're in the middle of the auction,
[38:46] Speaker 3: it's easy to say there is no way this dude
[38:49] Speaker 3: is worth that much. But how much is he worth
[38:51] Speaker 3: to you and your team and your fantasy team in
[38:53] Speaker 3: Week one when you're setting your lineup. That's what matters exactly.
[38:57] Speaker 1: I also this kind of plays into one of the
[38:59] Speaker 1: things I wrote about really early on at Rodal World
[39:01] Speaker 1: whenever I was doing the auction stuff, was what I
[39:03] Speaker 1: called the you theory, and it was essentially this idea
[39:06] Speaker 1: where you know, a lot of times in drafts there
[39:08] Speaker 1: are like generally accepted tiers, right you have the round
[39:11] Speaker 1: one to round two running backs. This year, let's say
[39:14] Speaker 1: where there's a group of like six or seven guys
[39:17] Speaker 1: that everyone kind of sees as interchangeable in rank, and
[39:19] Speaker 1: you know, maybe you like mari and Hampton more than
[39:21] Speaker 1: Kenneth Walker or whatever the case may be, but generally
[39:24] Speaker 1: you know that the room of twelve, you know, eleven
[39:26] Speaker 1: other people are gonna view this tier very similarly. And
[39:30] Speaker 1: what I noticed in doing some reason this is again
[39:32] Speaker 1: this is like ten years ago, but what I noticed
[39:34] Speaker 1: is that if you think of the letter you when
[39:37] Speaker 1: the tier starts, people will spend X dollars on that
[39:41] Speaker 1: right in the middle of the tier, before you know,
[39:44] Speaker 1: there's still like three Like if you take the seven
[39:46] Speaker 1: guys that I'm talking about, I don't even know how
[39:47] Speaker 1: many running backs, but just say there's seven players in
[39:49] Speaker 1: this tier that's generally accepted. The first guy gets nominated,
[39:53] Speaker 1: he goes for X dollars. The next handful of players
[39:57] Speaker 1: will go for a comparable number, if not a little
[39:59] Speaker 1: bit lower, because people know intuitively that there are other
[40:04] Speaker 1: unless there's like someone that people just really like, but
[40:06] Speaker 1: people generally know intuitively that there's more players left in
[40:09] Speaker 1: that tier. And then at the very end, when the
[40:12] Speaker 1: tiers drying up, that's when prices skyrocket again because they
[40:15] Speaker 1: understand that this is when things are going to try up.
[40:19] Speaker 1: And this I gotta get my guy now because I
[40:21] Speaker 1: didn't buy into this tier and you can get more value.
[40:24] Speaker 1: This is why I think knowing tiers and understanding pocket
[40:26] Speaker 1: values is just so important in auctions because you can
[40:29] Speaker 1: really extract value by knowing when it's the middle of
[40:32] Speaker 1: that tier and you don't have like such strong player
[40:35] Speaker 1: takes that you need to absolutely get this guy because
[40:38] Speaker 1: there is variance in fantasy football, and you can sit
[40:40] Speaker 1: there and say, I'm gonna wait one or two guys
[40:43] Speaker 1: in this tier. Okay, I know that this guy's off
[40:46] Speaker 1: the board. This guy's off the board. Maybe now's the
[40:47] Speaker 1: time to pounce. We'll see what the price tag looks like.
[40:50] Speaker 1: And then once that tier is done towards the end,
[40:52] Speaker 1: that's when the prices start to skyrocket a little bit more.
[40:54] Speaker 1: Is that something like a phenomenon that you've witnessed as well.
[40:58] Speaker 3: Yes, absolutely, I call it the boomerang effect. It's the
[41:01] Speaker 3: same thing. You're definitely you're definitely hitting the nail on
[41:05] Speaker 3: the head there. And the wild card factor there is
[41:09] Speaker 3: just the nomination order because a lot of times somebody
[41:12] Speaker 3: will nominate somebody who's in the middle of a tier,
[41:15] Speaker 3: and it's hard because people really find comfort and they
[41:20] Speaker 3: don't realize it, but they find comfort in that market
[41:23] Speaker 3: setting within the tier. So if a player goes for
[41:26] Speaker 3: twenty seven in this tier and they think, well, that's
[41:29] Speaker 3: the top player in the tier. Everybody's going to go
[41:32] Speaker 3: below that until they get nervous, and then it's going
[41:34] Speaker 3: to spike yep. Yeah, but they find comfort in that.
[41:37] Speaker 3: And again that's another thing about playing. People find out
[41:40] Speaker 3: what makes people comfortable and uncomfortable. By the way, you
[41:43] Speaker 3: always want people to feel uncomfortable when you're in the game.
[41:47] Speaker 1: Sorry, sorry, I'm just look, I'm just thinking about myself
[41:51] Speaker 1: in literally three or four weeks from now drafting with you,
[41:55] Speaker 1: and not only are we going to be approaching these
[41:57] Speaker 1: drafts probably similarly, but you're just going to have this
[41:59] Speaker 1: look on your like I want you to feel pain
[42:01] Speaker 1: right now.
[42:02] Speaker 3: I'm just I want you to feel bad. Do you
[42:03] Speaker 3: feel bad yet? But yeah, when people are comfortable with like, hey,
[42:07] Speaker 3: this is the number, then they're going to slot those
[42:10] Speaker 3: guys in behind it. Yeah, and you need to make
[42:13] Speaker 3: sure you get one of those slotted guys before everyone
[42:16] Speaker 3: goes oh and then it starts going.
[42:18] Speaker 2: Crazy exactly, exactly, all right. I want to move on
[42:21] Speaker 2: from auctions.
[42:22] Speaker 1: I want to talk about the legal side of things
[42:25] Speaker 1: that you do, because this is also a big differentiator
[42:27] Speaker 1: for you and what you can provide to the fantasy space.
[42:30] Speaker 1: You know, you do awesome threads all the time on
[42:33] Speaker 1: different legal situations, because unfortunately, the way the NFL is,
[42:37] Speaker 1: there are a lot of off the field incidents that
[42:39] Speaker 1: go on that we have to figure out from a
[42:41] Speaker 1: fantasy football perspective, and it sucks and it's unfortunate, and
[42:45] Speaker 1: I want a caveat with that first and foremost that
[42:47] Speaker 1: we even have to go down this path and talk
[42:49] Speaker 1: about the legality side of things. We do have to
[42:52] Speaker 1: be fantasy analysts and we do have to understand the
[42:55] Speaker 1: implications of what these things are. So there's two players
[42:57] Speaker 1: in particular that are going through it right now from
[43:00] Speaker 1: an off the field perspective, where you know, you look
[43:03] Speaker 1: at their ADPs, especially in best Ball right now, it fluctuates,
[43:06] Speaker 1: and it has been fluctuating for the last couple of months.
[43:09] Speaker 1: So the first one that I want you to dig
[43:10] Speaker 1: into and explain where we're at is with Rashi Rice.
[43:14] Speaker 3: Yeah. Boy, this is a super complicated one. But let
[43:18] Speaker 3: me try to break it down as simply as I can,
[43:20] Speaker 3: because I think right now we're in a different spot
[43:23] Speaker 3: than we were because he's out of jail and we
[43:25] Speaker 3: haven't heard anything from the NFL now that doesn't mean
[43:27] Speaker 3: we're not going to hear something from the NFL. But
[43:30] Speaker 3: the original thing that I think confused people with this
[43:34] Speaker 3: case and with the development in the case of him
[43:36] Speaker 3: going to jail missing OTAs while he's you know, recovering
[43:40] Speaker 3: from knee injury all that mess. The thing that was
[43:43] Speaker 3: difficult for me to parse at the beginning was that
[43:46] Speaker 3: he got thirty days. And initially I thought, hey, he
[43:49] Speaker 3: violated his probation. He's got thirty days from the probation violation,
[43:53] Speaker 3: and technically yes, But what happened was he was ordered
[43:57] Speaker 3: to do thirty days in jail as part of his
[43:59] Speaker 3: defer to judy cation from the original plea, and that
[44:03] Speaker 3: thirty days was I have the sentencing entry posted on
[44:07] Speaker 3: one of my threads which says that that thirty days
[44:10] Speaker 3: was to be served TBD. Now that's great for Rice
[44:14] Speaker 3: because it's obviously part of the deal that his team
[44:16] Speaker 3: worked out that he could just kind of do that
[44:18] Speaker 3: thirty days whenever he wanted over the next five years.
[44:21] Speaker 3: He hadn't done it yet. Who wants to sign up
[44:23] Speaker 3: to do it immediately? Right, I got five years, I'll
[44:25] Speaker 3: do that later. So so basically he's got these conditions,
[44:29] Speaker 3: and I've read the probation conditions. In the conditions, one
[44:32] Speaker 3: of them was that you can't have illegal substances in
[44:36] Speaker 3: your system. Actually, he's not supposed to be drinking or
[44:38] Speaker 3: buying alcohol either, but he's not allowed to have illegal
[44:41] Speaker 3: substances because I kind of heard that argument about well,
[44:43] Speaker 3: weed blah blah, and I'm like, first of all, he's
[44:46] Speaker 3: not allowed to have alcohol. That's illegal everywhere, and number two,
[44:50] Speaker 3: weed is not legal in Texas, so where this case is,
[44:54] Speaker 3: it's not legal. So I'm sorry, but that's one of
[44:57] Speaker 3: your conditions. And so what ended up happening was I said, now,
[45:01] Speaker 3: but why is he getting this thirty days now? And
[45:03] Speaker 3: then I said, oh, I know he walked in there
[45:06] Speaker 3: on this violation because the person said, hey, he dropped dirty.
[45:09] Speaker 3: They have a hearing in front of the judge, and
[45:11] Speaker 3: the judge says, Okay, I'm not giving you thirty more days,
[45:15] Speaker 3: but this is your wake up call. You're going to
[45:17] Speaker 3: do your thirty now because you violated probation. And I'm
[45:20] Speaker 3: not taking away your probation or your deferred adjudication, but
[45:23] Speaker 3: you're going to go do this now, and this is
[45:25] Speaker 3: your wake up call that I'm not messing around, and
[45:28] Speaker 3: so this was confirmed to be accurate, and I'm glad
[45:33] Speaker 3: that I parsed it correctly because there was a lot
[45:35] Speaker 3: of moving parts there that I was just like, a
[45:37] Speaker 3: lot of this just isn't adding up perfectly. But he
[45:41] Speaker 3: ends up going to jail because of the violation. But
[45:44] Speaker 3: the reason I say all that is not to hear
[45:46] Speaker 3: myself talk and sound smart. The reason I say all
[45:49] Speaker 3: that is because this is part of the original plea
[45:52] Speaker 3: that he was already punished for by the NFL. So
[45:55] Speaker 3: I think that's super important when it comes to whether
[45:57] Speaker 3: or not he's going to miss time this year. Is
[46:00] Speaker 3: I don't know that the NFL is going to care
[46:02] Speaker 3: about a weed violation of the probation. And it's not
[46:05] Speaker 3: because it's not important to them that he violated probation.
[46:08] Speaker 3: It's just that it's already part of what he's been
[46:11] Speaker 3: punished for, and I think his team in the nfl
[46:13] Speaker 3: PA would argue very strongly that this is not something
[46:17] Speaker 3: that you can give him additional punishment for. And then,
[46:20] Speaker 3: so what it comes down to is, and let me
[46:22] Speaker 3: just say I'm breaking this right now on JJ's show,
[46:26] Speaker 3: because this has only been available to the Patreon so far.
[46:29] Speaker 3: But I think that with Rice, I feel more comfortable
[46:32] Speaker 3: with him in mid to late August by saying we're
[46:36] Speaker 3: taking one hundred and twenty day bet on him, we
[46:38] Speaker 3: don't have to worry. Now we're talking red Draft. Obviously
[46:41] Speaker 3: in Dynasty, he's still toxic in my mind, but you're
[46:44] Speaker 3: only taking one hundred and twenty day bet, and a
[46:47] Speaker 3: couple of times that Rice has gotten in trouble has
[46:49] Speaker 3: been in the off season when the guy's got nothing
[46:50] Speaker 3: to do. If he makes it through training camp and
[46:53] Speaker 3: he makes it to the season, I think it's okay
[46:55] Speaker 3: to make one hundred and twenty day bet because I
[46:57] Speaker 3: think he's going to stay busy, and I think he's
[46:59] Speaker 3: going to stay out of trouble during the season, and
[47:00] Speaker 3: I don't think he's getting a new suspension. So I
[47:03] Speaker 3: think it's okay to make a bet on Rice when
[47:05] Speaker 3: we get to middle of late August. Right now, I'm
[47:07] Speaker 3: still pretty nervous about it.
[47:09] Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it seems like the like, especially from
[47:12] Speaker 1: like a Dynasty perspective, like the thing that he did
[47:15] Speaker 1: right smoking weed is not the thing that people should,
[47:19] Speaker 1: you know, in my opinion, really care about because people
[47:21] Speaker 1: are doing that everywhere all the time, every day. It's
[47:24] Speaker 1: it's the idea that he was on probation and he
[47:27] Speaker 1: knew that he shouldn't and couldn't do that thing, and
[47:30] Speaker 1: he did that thing, right.
[47:31] Speaker 2: It's just a decision making thing, right.
[47:33] Speaker 1: And so that's on top of the other decision making
[47:35] Speaker 1: things that have gone south for him, And so that's
[47:38] Speaker 1: the scary part about.
[47:39] Speaker 2: Him long term.
[47:40] Speaker 1: But to your point, if there's no suspension based on
[47:43] Speaker 1: you know, how you read this and confirmed this and
[47:46] Speaker 1: the fact that this was the delayed thirty days just
[47:49] Speaker 1: happening now instead of later, And then on top of that, like,
[47:52] Speaker 1: do you think that the way the NFL has sort
[47:54] Speaker 1: of approached marijuana could could also play a role in
[47:57] Speaker 1: this how they've become more lax and just it's not
[47:59] Speaker 1: as big of it, Like it's not like it was
[48:00] Speaker 1: like a different type of drug that they might have
[48:03] Speaker 1: been a little bit harder on.
[48:05] Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, it's part of it, because the NFL has
[48:09] Speaker 3: changed the substances of abuse policy that raises the level
[48:14] Speaker 3: of marijuana you're allowed to have in your system and
[48:17] Speaker 3: how much they care about it after each offense. And
[48:20] Speaker 3: so I think that absolutely plays into it if he's
[48:23] Speaker 3: caught with something different in the system. I think we're
[48:26] Speaker 3: having a different conversation.
[48:28] Speaker 2: Josh Jacobs.
[48:29] Speaker 1: This one I can't wrap my head around at all
[48:32] Speaker 1: because obviously he was like in jail, then he's out
[48:35] Speaker 1: of jail, but yet it's not closed like it seems
[48:38] Speaker 1: like an investigation.
[48:38] Speaker 2: So on going, where are we at with Jacobs?
[48:41] Speaker 3: The weird thing with Jacobs is this particular jurisdiction, and
[48:45] Speaker 3: I think that this might be Wisconsin in general, but
[48:49] Speaker 3: they have a statute on the books that's what's called
[48:52] Speaker 3: a mandatory arrest policy, and that's pretty normal for most jurisdictions,
[48:57] Speaker 3: but they handle it differently, and there's is more draconian
[48:59] Speaker 3: than other jurisdictions that I've practiced in because where I'm from,
[49:03] Speaker 3: the mandatory arrest policy is really for the time of
[49:08] Speaker 3: the incident. It's really to separate the parties. It says
[49:12] Speaker 3: you must arrest somebody in a domestic incident because you
[49:15] Speaker 3: want the parties separated. While tensions are high, that's when
[49:18] Speaker 3: things happen, that's when bad things happen, that's when homicides happen,
[49:21] Speaker 3: and so you want to separate these parties. And so
[49:24] Speaker 3: a lot of times there's a mandatory arrest policy at
[49:26] Speaker 3: the time of the incident. In this particular case, they
[49:29] Speaker 3: arrested him days later, but their policy says within twenty
[49:33] Speaker 3: eight days that which is crazy to me. They've got
[49:36] Speaker 3: to have an arrest, and they determined that it was
[49:40] Speaker 3: Jacob's that needed to be arrested. So he gets arrested
[49:43] Speaker 3: and then he gets released because they declined to file
[49:46] Speaker 3: charges right away. Now I think he would have been
[49:48] Speaker 3: released anyway, But the point is it was confusing for
[49:52] Speaker 3: a lot of people, like, whyzi and jail and there's
[49:54] Speaker 3: no charges. Well, that's why because of the mandatory arrest policy.
[49:57] Speaker 3: Now they're saying, hey, we're not necessary ready to make
[50:01] Speaker 3: a decision yet. That's also somewhat normal in these cases,
[50:05] Speaker 3: and it's normal with celebrities specifically, because they want to
[50:08] Speaker 3: make sure they're really buttoned up and they know what
[50:10] Speaker 3: they're doing here, so they're taking some time. Now. I
[50:14] Speaker 3: operate under the assumption that when I don't know something
[50:17] Speaker 3: about a case, there are unknowable variables in the background
[50:21] Speaker 3: that we can't we can't speculate on. But I will
[50:24] Speaker 3: say that when it takes this long, generally they do
[50:27] Speaker 3: not have it. Okay, they don't have what they want.
[50:31] Speaker 3: And I think that part of it is that Jacob's
[50:34] Speaker 3: team was pushing really hard, like we've got some information
[50:36] Speaker 3: here that says that he's going to be you know,
[50:39] Speaker 3: we've got exculpatory information. You have to pay attention to X,
[50:42] Speaker 3: Y and Z. I think they're behind the scenes really
[50:45] Speaker 3: lobbying the state, like, look at this information we have
[50:47] Speaker 3: before you decide to do something, and I think it's
[50:50] Speaker 3: making the state think to themselves, should we do this now.
[50:53] Speaker 3: The major problem I have with all of this is
[50:56] Speaker 3: that I've been in so many of these domestic violence cases.
[51:00] Speaker 3: That is one of my Between duys and domestic violence,
[51:05] Speaker 3: those are my two most common cases domestic violence. There's
[51:10] Speaker 3: so many different components to it, but one of them
[51:12] Speaker 3: that I have learned is that if another person calls
[51:16] Speaker 3: the police, things are pretty bad in that situation. And
[51:19] Speaker 3: that's what happened here there. I believe a neighbor called
[51:23] Speaker 3: the police because they heard stuff was happening next door.
[51:25] Speaker 3: I believe there's a recording of it, and I'm not
[51:29] Speaker 3: sure we know exactly, like I'm not sure that we
[51:32] Speaker 3: hear the exact but the point being You know, it's
[51:35] Speaker 3: a fairly serious situation when a neighbor has to call
[51:39] Speaker 3: the police and there's enough ruckus. Yeah, and that's bad.
[51:43] Speaker 3: That's real bad. And we don't know. The problem is,
[51:47] Speaker 3: and I have to be real careful here. The problem is,
[51:51] Speaker 3: there may be something awful that happened, and there may
[51:53] Speaker 3: be something that happened behind closed doors that only two
[51:56] Speaker 3: people know about, right, and that's Jacobs and the other
[51:58] Speaker 3: person be I don't know that. And again I'm trying
[52:02] Speaker 3: to avoid a slander or a lawsuit. But there may
[52:06] Speaker 3: be something that happened behind closed doors, and it seems
[52:08] Speaker 3: like things were bad enough the police need to get involved.
[52:11] Speaker 3: Something probably happened, but whether they can prove that, and
[52:15] Speaker 3: whether the victim is still interested in going forward at
[52:17] Speaker 3: this point, I'm doubtful on both of those because of
[52:21] Speaker 3: the length of time they're taking to charge this case.
[52:24] Speaker 3: And two things come from that. One is that I
[52:27] Speaker 3: think that either they don't file and then Jacobs is
[52:30] Speaker 3: fine for the season, or if they do file, I
[52:33] Speaker 3: think we're getting so close to the season Jacob's team
[52:36] Speaker 3: is going to push it off into next year. I'm
[52:38] Speaker 3: operating under the assumption Jacobs is going to play a
[52:40] Speaker 3: full season for the Packers this year.
[52:43] Speaker 1: Yeah, and it seems like right now when this stuff
[52:46] Speaker 1: was not even in our imagination, you know, he was
[52:49] Speaker 1: in best ball, the late second round pick, early third
[52:52] Speaker 1: round pick, and now he's fallen at times to the
[52:55] Speaker 1: fifth and over on DraftKings, and so yeah, it could
[52:59] Speaker 1: be an opportunity for I'm a strictly a fan. Look again,
[53:01] Speaker 1: I have to reiterate, it's admittedly incredibly gross that you know, you.
[53:06] Speaker 2: Have to go in one set like one like one
[53:09] Speaker 2: of these things is way more important than the other.
[53:10] Speaker 1: I totally understand that, but I also have to, you know,
[53:12] Speaker 1: do my job and talk about what this means from
[53:14] Speaker 1: an implication standpoint for fantasy football. And it does seem
[53:18] Speaker 1: like if that's the case, then Jacobs is someone that
[53:20] Speaker 1: you could hypothetically be be targeting right now, all.
[53:23] Speaker 2: Right, I dom, yeah, you are okay, there you go.
[53:25] Speaker 2: You got the lawyer targeting him right now, I am, yeah, okay.
[53:29] Speaker 2: I want to get at least some.
[53:30] Speaker 1: Player takes from you before I let you go. So
[53:32] Speaker 1: give me some players that one at each position that
[53:36] Speaker 1: you are targeting this year.
[53:38] Speaker 2: Here in twenty twenty six.
[53:40] Speaker 3: The first one is Trevor Lawrence. He's QB eleven right now,
[53:44] Speaker 3: and I looked at some of his numbers from the
[53:47] Speaker 3: end of last year. Now I realized that a lot
[53:49] Speaker 3: of people are saying, well, he had a really easy
[53:51] Speaker 3: schedule that set up well for him down the stretch.
[53:52] Speaker 3: But you know, post By, they did play the Texans,
[53:56] Speaker 3: they played the Broncos, and by the way, they lit
[53:57] Speaker 3: up the Broncos, Yeah, for thirty four points. Lawrence was
[54:00] Speaker 3: awesome in that game. I think he had two seventy
[54:02] Speaker 3: nine and three passing with one rushing in like maybe
[54:04] Speaker 3: fifty rushing yards. He was awesome in that game. And
[54:08] Speaker 3: to borrow a phrase from Rich Reebar, you want to
[54:10] Speaker 3: see offenses that are able to punch up, that are
[54:12] Speaker 3: able to go at defenses like that. They struggled a
[54:16] Speaker 3: little bit against the Texans, but post By Lawrence really
[54:20] Speaker 3: seemed to lock into the offense. And I think that
[54:22] Speaker 3: that's underrated because I'll never forget a quote from Bruce
[54:26] Speaker 3: arians who said when he got Carson Palmer, he said,
[54:29] Speaker 3: you can't judge a quarterback on your system until they've
[54:32] Speaker 3: got at least eight games of real action to get
[54:36] Speaker 3: them into the system. And post by. Last year, Lawrence
[54:40] Speaker 3: was awesome. He was the QB two in a lot
[54:43] Speaker 3: of formats, you know, at least top three. His EPA
[54:47] Speaker 3: was fourth in the league. He was fifth and completion
[54:50] Speaker 3: percentage over expectation. The Jags offense in general will sixth
[54:54] Speaker 3: and drop back EPA. And this is with a pretty
[54:57] Speaker 3: mediocre running game. They really weren't running the ball very
[54:59] Speaker 3: we well. He played extremely well and I think one
[55:05] Speaker 3: of the things that he picked up in his fantasy
[55:07] Speaker 3: game over the second half of the year was his
[55:09] Speaker 3: rushing exactly because he averaged sixteen rushing yards a game
[55:12] Speaker 3: prior to his by. After the bye, he was only
[55:15] Speaker 3: below sixteen yards one time the entire second half of
[55:18] Speaker 3: the year. So the rushing, I hope the rushing production
[55:21] Speaker 3: is still there. I hope that's a product of him
[55:23] Speaker 3: learning the system better and knowing when to take off
[55:26] Speaker 3: with the ball. And maybe that's a Cohen thing, maybe
[55:28] Speaker 3: it's not. I don't know. I hope it is.
[55:30] Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the thing and not to interrupt, but
[55:32] Speaker 1: like the thing with Cohen that's really interesting with that
[55:33] Speaker 1: is that Baker Mayfield had his best.
[55:35] Speaker 2: Rushing season with Liam Cohen.
[55:36] Speaker 1: You know, like I do think that there is a
[55:38] Speaker 1: little bit of a tie to Liam Cohen to allowing
[55:41] Speaker 1: his quarterback to escape the pocket and generate those fantasy
[55:44] Speaker 1: points via rushing.
[55:45] Speaker 3: Yeah, and I know it's a small sample size, so
[55:48] Speaker 3: I don't want to put too much into it, but
[55:50] Speaker 3: I do think there's something to say about pre By.
[55:54] Speaker 3: This is really stark difference in rushing yards there.
[55:57] Speaker 2: Yeah.
[55:58] Speaker 3: And then the last thing I'll say about him is
[55:59] Speaker 3: just that all the extra time they traded for Jacoby
[56:02] Speaker 3: Myers near the end of the year, all the extra
[56:05] Speaker 3: time with Myers and with Cohen's system and Myers getting
[56:08] Speaker 3: to learn the system, and all the piece is fitting
[56:10] Speaker 3: together better after a full offseason together. I think wheels
[56:14] Speaker 3: up and QB eleven seems a little bit odd to me.
[56:16] Speaker 3: I don't know why he's.
[56:18] Speaker 1: I'm spoiler alert, but he's a player to target in
[56:20] Speaker 1: the draft guy this year, so totally with.
[56:22] Speaker 3: Me and you are going to butt heads, I can tell. Yeah. Yeah,
[56:26] Speaker 3: so just make sure you bid five when I say four. Yeah.
[56:31] Speaker 3: So at running back, the guy I'm looking at Kyrien Williams.
[56:34] Speaker 3: You know, I just can't stop talking about Kyrien Williams.
[56:37] Speaker 3: And I realize that it's fun for everyone to be
[56:41] Speaker 3: in on Blake Korham. I get it. But let me
[56:44] Speaker 3: pull this out for you that this is from our
[56:46] Speaker 3: buddy Dwayne MacFarlane over at Fantasy Life. I love his
[56:49] Speaker 3: utilization tool. I don't know if you've used it. That's great,
[56:51] Speaker 3: But he's RB fifteen right now at ADP. He's never
[56:55] Speaker 3: finished that low in his fantasy career since his breakout,
[56:58] Speaker 3: He's never had a Fantasy sea that low. I think
[57:01] Speaker 3: the most interesting thing is when they started to use
[57:04] Speaker 3: blake Koram last year, we saw his numbers write about
[57:09] Speaker 3: fifteen point eight points per game when they started to
[57:11] Speaker 3: use blake Korm, and before they used blake Korm, he
[57:15] Speaker 3: was about fifteen point seven points per eight. So they
[57:18] Speaker 3: really focused on getting Korum involved, and yet Kyron's Fantasy
[57:24] Speaker 3: production didn't really take that much of a hit. And
[57:27] Speaker 3: it's one of those things where I know that it's
[57:29] Speaker 3: hard to get your mind around this, but when you're
[57:31] Speaker 3: watching on Sunday, it was really just a rotation. It
[57:33] Speaker 3: was just this is your series, is your right, and
[57:36] Speaker 3: there's going to be some luck involved there about who
[57:39] Speaker 3: gets the goal line carries. But what's not luck involved
[57:42] Speaker 3: is what I pulled from Dwayne's numbers, and that is
[57:45] Speaker 3: that he played ninety five percent of the two minute snaps,
[57:49] Speaker 3: he played seventy two percent of the long down and
[57:51] Speaker 3: distance snaps, and he played seventy three percent of the
[57:54] Speaker 3: short down in distant snaps. He still managed fifty nine
[57:57] Speaker 3: percent of the carries inside the five yard line. So
[58:00] Speaker 3: all of those things tell me Sean McVay trusts him,
[58:03] Speaker 3: they're going to continue to use him. And even when
[58:06] Speaker 3: Blake Koram is involved, I still think Kyra Booms is
[58:09] Speaker 3: a value at RB fifteen.
[58:10] Speaker 2: Yeah, how about your wide receiver?
[58:13] Speaker 3: My wide receivers, Jalen Waddell, we already talked about him.
[58:15] Speaker 3: He's at wide receiver twenty four right now. I think
[58:19] Speaker 3: it's weird that. Let me just say in general, I
[58:22] Speaker 3: think it's odd that all Jacksonville wide receivers are thirty
[58:25] Speaker 3: three or worse. Somebody's going to break out of that match.
[58:27] Speaker 3: That's my honorable match. Yeah, Wattle at twenty four, let
[58:30] Speaker 3: me just say this, He's had two seasons in his
[58:34] Speaker 3: career where he's had over one hundred and four targets
[58:37] Speaker 3: and he finished as the wide receiver twelve in one
[58:39] Speaker 3: season and the wide receiver fourteen and the other those
[58:42] Speaker 3: are PPR points per game. Yeah, he got one hundred
[58:45] Speaker 3: and seventeen targets in twenty twenty two and one hundred
[58:48] Speaker 3: and forty two his rookie year. He caught one hundred
[58:51] Speaker 3: and four balls and he had thirteen hundred yards in
[58:53] Speaker 3: the year that he got one hundred and seventeen targets.
[58:55] Speaker 3: That offense that he played in Miami had a couple problems.
[58:58] Speaker 3: Number one, they wanted to get the ball to Tyreek Hill,
[59:01] Speaker 3: and that's what the offense was designed for, and admittedly
[59:05] Speaker 3: that's the right strategy. But also number two is we
[59:09] Speaker 3: saw the fallof into a tager Ya Lois play, and
[59:13] Speaker 3: too was a different quarterback when he was throwing the
[59:15] Speaker 3: ball in this first couple of years to Jalen Waddle.
[59:17] Speaker 3: He just fell off a cliff and the offense got
[59:20] Speaker 3: noticeably stale and Waddle with it and he had to
[59:23] Speaker 3: downward trend with it. So I think you're going to
[59:26] Speaker 3: an offensive system that is very strong with Sean Payton.
[59:31] Speaker 3: He's got a strong arm quarterback, he's got an excellent
[59:33] Speaker 3: receiver playing opposite him, and I think Wattle's going to
[59:36] Speaker 3: be the focus there. So I think wide receiver twenty
[59:38] Speaker 3: four feels like a value right now.
[59:40] Speaker 2: Yeah, I love Wattle.
[59:41] Speaker 1: He checks so many historical trends boxes for me at
[59:44] Speaker 1: that ADP, there's just so much to like.
[59:47] Speaker 2: We're going to be fighting over him too. All right,
[59:49] Speaker 2: give me your tight end, hopefully.
[59:50] Speaker 3: We should have done this in early August. Man, Yeah, right,
[59:55] Speaker 3: my tight end Sam Laporta right now. Although I'm not
[59:57] Speaker 3: loving the steam, I'm a little surprised because he was
[1:00:00] Speaker 3: cheaper about a month ago. Right now, he's at tight
[1:00:03] Speaker 3: end eight in ADP. But I'm comfortable with this because
[1:00:07] Speaker 3: there's two guys that I'm looking at that I like
[1:00:09] Speaker 3: at tight end, but I like Laporta a lot better
[1:00:11] Speaker 3: than the other guy's Travis Kelce. Kelsey's going tenth overall
[1:00:15] Speaker 3: in ADP, and I will say that last year Kelsey
[1:00:18] Speaker 3: finished eighth in PPR points per game me finished third overall.
[1:00:21] Speaker 3: That's a little bit of a weird discrepancy there. He
[1:00:24] Speaker 3: was second in routes run fourth and targets sixth, and
[1:00:26] Speaker 3: receptions fourth and receiving yards. But I don't love the
[1:00:31] Speaker 3: upside with Kelsey anymore because I do think that that
[1:00:34] Speaker 3: part of his game is capped, and so I don't
[1:00:38] Speaker 3: consider him as interesting of a value as I do.
[1:00:42] Speaker 3: Say I'm Laporta because we know what his upside is
[1:00:44] Speaker 3: and he's still a young player. We don't like messing
[1:00:47] Speaker 3: around with back injuries. I get that, and I get
[1:00:49] Speaker 3: that it could backfire. And this is a little bit
[1:00:51] Speaker 3: more of an auction play than a snake play, because
[1:00:54] Speaker 3: I think you can get Laporta cheaper, but at tight
[1:00:56] Speaker 3: end eight. If you look at his historical finishes. Of course,
[1:01:00] Speaker 3: you know he finished tight end one as a rookie,
[1:01:01] Speaker 3: but then he finished tight end nine and PPR points
[1:01:03] Speaker 3: per game the following year, and last year before he
[1:01:06] Speaker 3: was hurt, he was tight end eight in points per game.
[1:01:08] Speaker 3: So I think you're draft into as floor right now,
[1:01:10] Speaker 3: and we know what his upside is.
[1:01:12] Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean he's also one.
[1:01:13] Speaker 1: I've gotten him in Best Ball at times just because
[1:01:15] Speaker 1: of a week seventeen stack.
[1:01:16] Speaker 2: Too, because they get they get Chicago, which is nice.
[1:01:18] Speaker 1: But yeah, I like that call from an auction standpoint,
[1:01:21] Speaker 1: basically plays into to bring it all back, plays into
[1:01:24] Speaker 1: what we were talking about with those middle round tight
[1:01:25] Speaker 1: ends and quarterbacks.
[1:01:28] Speaker 2: So all right, I got one.
[1:01:29] Speaker 1: More question before I let you go yep, give me
[1:01:32] Speaker 1: your bold take, your hot take for this twenty twenty
[1:01:35] Speaker 1: six season.
[1:01:36] Speaker 3: My hot take is that so I just debated how
[1:01:40] Speaker 3: hot to go here, so I went right in the middle.
[1:01:45] Speaker 3: My hot take is that Aj Brown has overall wide
[1:01:48] Speaker 3: receiver one upside oo. And I was prepared to hate
[1:01:52] Speaker 3: Aj Brown going into this Fantasy season. I really was
[1:01:55] Speaker 3: because I watched last year a guy that I felt
[1:01:58] Speaker 3: like looked like he was falling off a cliff. These
[1:02:01] Speaker 3: big bodied receivers when they get older, they break down
[1:02:04] Speaker 3: quicker and the end comes faster, and I thought that's
[1:02:07] Speaker 3: what we were seeing last year. But I'm turning off
[1:02:10] Speaker 3: my brain a little bit for that, because I do
[1:02:12] Speaker 3: think motivation was such a huge problem for Brown last year.
[1:02:15] Speaker 3: I think the relationship between him and hurt Said deteriorated.
[1:02:19] Speaker 3: He was upset with the plate calling, he was upset
[1:02:21] Speaker 3: with everything that was going on in Philadelphia last year,
[1:02:23] Speaker 3: and I think some of what we saw could be
[1:02:26] Speaker 3: effort based. And so I think I kind of felt
[1:02:29] Speaker 3: the same way about Saquon Barkley, Like, is this dude
[1:02:32] Speaker 3: just had too many injuries and he's you know, he's
[1:02:35] Speaker 3: just not going to be the guy we thought he
[1:02:36] Speaker 3: was going to be, and then he goes to Philly
[1:02:37] Speaker 3: and he's electric, And I think the same thing could
[1:02:40] Speaker 3: happen here with the Patriots. And I was talking about
[1:02:43] Speaker 3: how much they love to throw the ball the other
[1:02:45] Speaker 3: day and that. So I looked up a couple of things,
[1:02:48] Speaker 3: and one thing I like is, first of all, they
[1:02:49] Speaker 3: were plus three point two percent in pass rate over
[1:02:52] Speaker 3: expected over the full year. They were twelfth in neutral
[1:02:56] Speaker 3: pass rate as well. But the thing I loved the most,
[1:02:59] Speaker 3: the that I love the most about the Patriots offense
[1:03:01] Speaker 3: was when they were facing a second and eight or greater,
[1:03:06] Speaker 3: they were a plus twelve point nine percent pass rate
[1:03:09] Speaker 3: over expected. That is a monster number and that I
[1:03:12] Speaker 3: love that because that tells me the play caller is
[1:03:14] Speaker 3: not an idiot. Because I can't stand running the guy
[1:03:18] Speaker 3: into the line. He gets nothing, and on second and
[1:03:20] Speaker 3: ten you're like, let's do it again. We have seen
[1:03:23] Speaker 3: study after study that shows that that second and long
[1:03:27] Speaker 3: run is just a negative ev play, and so that
[1:03:31] Speaker 3: twelve point nine percent is massive. I think the Patriots
[1:03:35] Speaker 3: offense in general could be a firecracker, and I think
[1:03:38] Speaker 3: aj Brown has that possibility. Now maybe he's the washed
[1:03:41] Speaker 3: guy I saw at the end of last year. But
[1:03:44] Speaker 3: I think a lot of times motivation comes when we
[1:03:48] Speaker 3: don't expect to see that, because we think what we
[1:03:51] Speaker 3: saw was, Hey, this guy's falling apart, and really he
[1:03:54] Speaker 3: just needed motivation and a new lease on life in
[1:03:57] Speaker 3: a new place with a really good quarterback.
[1:03:59] Speaker 2: Yeah, more and more into aj Brown.
[1:04:01] Speaker 1: You know, I bought into him before the trade happened
[1:04:04] Speaker 1: because from a best ball perspective, just because you knew
[1:04:07] Speaker 1: that the ADP was going to rise, and then the
[1:04:08] Speaker 1: ADP rows and I'm like, wow, this seems kind of insane.
[1:04:11] Speaker 1: But the more that I've thought about it, you know,
[1:04:13] Speaker 1: he's he's the more I think it's a stable place
[1:04:16] Speaker 1: where he is, Like, it makes sense to as to
[1:04:18] Speaker 1: where he's going at.
[1:04:19] Speaker 3: He loves his coach too. Yeah, yeah, that makes a difference.
[1:04:23] Speaker 3: He's got to be Yeah, love it, Drew.
[1:04:26] Speaker 2: This was great.
[1:04:27] Speaker 1: Thank you so much for hopping on and chatting. Let
[1:04:30] Speaker 1: everyone know where they can find you and where they
[1:04:31] Speaker 1: can find those awesome threads that you're putting out there
[1:04:33] Speaker 1: on X.
[1:04:34] Speaker 3: Yeah. Thank you so much for having me. Man, this
[1:04:36] Speaker 3: is fun doing a little home at home. I think
[1:04:38] Speaker 3: you're coming on next week. So this is this is
[1:04:40] Speaker 3: really fun. I enjoy talking to you. Thank you for
[1:04:42] Speaker 3: having me. You can find me on Twitter at Drew
[1:04:45] Speaker 3: Davenport FF. You can find my show, The Auction Brief
[1:04:47] Speaker 3: anywhere you find podcasts. My writing's over at Football Guys.
[1:04:51] Speaker 3: And if you want some extra behind the scenes stuff
[1:04:53] Speaker 3: with the legal stuff and with the auction stuff, I
[1:04:56] Speaker 3: do all auction targeted content over at my patreon that's
[1:04:59] Speaker 3: fantasy football.
[1:05:00] Speaker 2: Yes, can't recommend Drew enough. Also check out lateround dot com.
[1:05:03] Speaker 1: Make sure you have pre ordered the Draft Guide that
[1:05:06] Speaker 1: will be out on July tenth, So by the time
[1:05:10] Speaker 1: this is released, it'll be a week before that comes out.
[1:05:13] Speaker 1: Getting getting closer, almost done, which is you know I've.
[1:05:15] Speaker 3: Read that thing cover to cover last year.
[1:05:17] Speaker 2: Man, oh, I appreciate that.
[1:05:18] Speaker 1: Yeah, and so yeah, that'll be out a week from Friday,
[1:05:23] Speaker 1: so a week from when you're listening to this hopefully.
[1:05:25] Speaker 1: Also check out the new members hub over there on
[1:05:27] Speaker 1: lateround dot com. Subscribe to the YouTube channel, all that
[1:05:30] Speaker 1: great stuff. Otherwise, everyone, thanks for tuning in.

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